The taka weakened sharply against the US dollar yesterday (8 March), snapping six months of exchange rate stability as demand for greenbacks rose to meet growing energy import bills amid the Middle East war.

In the inter-bank market, the dollar rose by as high as Tk0.25 in a single day to trade between Tk122.50 and Tk122.55 yesterday, compared with Tk122.30 on the last working day on Thursday, according to banking sources.

The sudden rise in the dollar price has raised concerns about further inflationary pressure. Consumer inflation already climbed over 9% in February, the highest level in the past 10 months.

Although the Bangladesh Bank had verbally instructed banks to keep the remittance exchange rate at a maximum of Tk122.45, most banks did not maintain the limit, according to industry insiders.

Energy crisis averted for now as more oil, gas on the way

Bankers say exchange houses had already raised remittance rates, forcing banks to buy more dollars from the market to meet growing energy import bills for the Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation as global oil prices increased following the outbreak of the war.

In addition, remittance inflows from the Gulf countries have slowed since last week due to the ongoing war, further tightening the dollar supply in the market, several bankers said, wishing not to be named.

The Bangladesh Bank is likely to step in to sell dollars to retain rates if banks come up with demand, said a senior executive of the regulator.

He noted that the central bank has already stopped purchasing dollars from banks as a precautionary measure as the foreign exchange market shows signs of stress.

Despite yesterday's rise in the dollar price, no banks approached the regulator to buy dollars, he added.

During the current 2025-26 fiscal year, the central bank purchased about $5.4 billion from the market to prevent excessive appreciation of the taka amid weak import demand caused by sluggish business activity.

Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of India has also intervened in the market by selling dollars to stem losses in the Indian rupee, which recorded its steepest decline in more than a month, closing above Rs91.47 per dollar in the first week of March, according to media reports.

Recently, the Bangladesh Bank held discussions with economists to assess the potential impact of the war. Experts advised the central bank to allow some exchange rate adjustment in order to protect foreign exchange reserves.

According to the latest data, the country's foreign exchange reserves stood at $30.76 billion on 5 March, calculated under the methodology of the International Monetary Fund, which is sufficient to cover more than four months of import payments.

Mobile financial services (MFS) are increasingly becoming a major channel for remittances sent by millions of Bangladeshis working abroad.

Remitters sent Tk 20,236 crore through MFS, excluding Nagad, in 2025, almost double the amount -- Tk 10,786 crore -- they sent home a year ago.

Bangladesh Bank (BB) data shows that MFS accounted for a small but growing portion of remittances transferred by Bangladeshis abroad. Roughly 90 percent of them work in the Middle East, especially in Saudi Arabia.

This situation would have been inconceivable seven years ago. In 2019, migrant workers sent $18.3 billion or more than Tk 150,000 crore in remittances, out of which only Tk 315 crore came through MFS. Since then, remittances sent through MFS have grown 64 times, thanks to efforts by MFS providers, mainly bKash.

The country’s largest MFS provider has been a pioneer in delivering remittances to the doorsteps of migrant workers’ families. In 2025, these workers sent home $33 billion, or over Tk 400,000 crore, in remittances.

bKash alone handled Tk 20,000 crore in remittances last year. While the growth was substantial, the amount of remittance sent using MFS was only 5 percent of the total.

Industry stakeholders said MFS operators do not directly collect remittances from Bangladeshi migrants working abroad. Migrant workers themselves decide whether they want to send money to MFS accounts or take the more traditional route of sending remittances through bank accounts.

MFS is gaining popularity fast as it is more convenient and offers instant delivery to remote, rural areas. Another perk is that money can be sent to multiple MFS accounts instead of just one bank account, so remitters can transfer funds to a number of people without any hassle.

In the case of MFS, the ticket size is small. When one has to send a large amount of money, bank accounts are preferred. Additionally, there is a 2.5 percent government incentive on remittances. If a migrant worker sends Tk 1,000 as remittance, the recipient will receive Tk 1,025.

Promotional campaigns by MFS providers in Bangladesh’s migrant belts abroad have supported the growth.

Ali Ahmmed, chief commercial officer of bKash, said that currently, expatriates can send remittances directly to their loved ones’ bKash accounts through 135 international money transfer operators (MTOs) from over 170 countries, which get settled at 27 commercial banks in Bangladesh.

“This commitment to delivery has made bKash a preferred platform, resulting in the highest inward remittance flows among MFS channels in 2025,” he said.

“This momentum has also inspired more global money transfer companies to collaborate with us, offering exclusive Eid incentives for expatriates to further encourage the use of formal banking channels.”

A total of 41 lakh bKash accounts received these remittances, almost double that of the previous year.

While the BB data does not account for remittances sent through Nagad, Muhammad Zahidul Islam, head of Media and Communication of the platform, said they witnessed “tremendous growth” recently.

“Overall, remittance growth at Nagad exceeded 28 percent last year compared to the previous year, and the numbers continue to rise steadily,” he said.

Nagad has modernised the remittance receiving process, Islam noted, which enabled Bangladeshi expatriates to send their hard-earned money to their loved ones from anywhere in the world.

“Through our campaigns, we are also actively promoting remittances via legal channels, and these initiatives are delivering positive results, as reflected in the growing figures,” he added.

A senior BB official said policy support by the central bank -- allowing banks to transfer remittances through MFS providers -- gave the main boost.

“This way, money is sent to the end user. Almost everyone has MFS accounts,” he said.

Despite the surge in remittance transfers through MFS channels, these transactions accounted for only one percent of total transactions -- Tk 18.73 lakh crore -- in 2025.

BB, in its latest monthly review, said MFS has significantly expanded financial inclusion in Bangladesh by providing accessible, secure, and convenient digital financial services to millions of people, especially in rural and underserved areas.

The Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) did not approve the proposal for FCS Holdings Ltd to acquire the shares of Yeakin Polymer held by the company's sponsor directors because the required No Objection Certificates (NOCs) for defaulted loans were not provided.

According to BSEC sources, the application was rejected because the applicants failed to submit the required No Objection Certificates (NOCs) from the relevant banks and financial institutions regarding the company's defaulted loans. Yeakin Polymer currently has outstanding loans of around Tk52 crore with banks and financial institutions.

Sources said FCS Holdings had sought approval from the commission to acquire a significant number of shares from the sponsor-directors of Yeakin Polymer. Under the plan, the share transfer would have enabled FCS Holdings to become a major shareholder in the company.

However, during the review process, the regulator found that Yeakin Polymer has defaulted loans with Islami Bank Bangladesh and Industrial and Infrastructure Development Finance Company Ltd (IIDFC). In such cases, obtaining consent from the lending institutions is mandatory before any transfer of sponsor-directors' shares can proceed.

The applicants failed to collect and submit the necessary NOCs from the lenders to the commission. As a result, the BSEC cancelled the application.

However, the commission has not completely closed the matter. Instead, it has instructed FCS Holdings to submit a fresh application along with NOCs related to the rescheduling of the company's bank loans.

This means that if the concerned banks and financial institutions agree to reschedule the loans or provide consent regarding the liabilities and issue the necessary NOCs, FCS Holdings may reapply to the commission seeking approval to acquire the shares.

Mohammad Harunor Rashid, managing director of Yeakin Polymer stated that they have already obtained No Objection Certificates (NOCs) from financial institutions- IIDFC for loans totaling Tk9 crore. However, the NOC from Islami Bank, which involves a loan of Tk43 crore, has not yet been received, though they expect to get it soon. The bank is currently assessing how it will recover its loan.

He also mentioned that the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) has not directly rejected their application. Instead, BSEC has asked them to submit a new application along with the required NOCs. Once they receive the remaining NOC, they will submit the application promptly.
Infograph: TBS
Infograph: TBS

According to regulatory sources, FCS Holdings and three sponsor-directors of Yeakin Polymer jointly applied to the commission last September seeking approval to transfer 1,58,52,993 shares, representing about 21.50% of the company's total shares, to FCS Holdings.

The shares were to be transferred from Yeakin Polymer's chairman Chakladar Rezaunul Alam, director Kapita Packaging Solutions Ltd, and director Didarul Alam.

During the review process, the securities regulator asked the applicants to submit NOCs from the lenders due to the company's outstanding loans and financial obligations with multiple institutions.

However, the applicants were unable to provide the required approvals within the stipulated timeframe, prompting the commission to cancel the proposal and instruct them to submit a fresh application with the necessary lender approvals if they wish to proceed.

BSEC Officials familiar with the matter said that regulatory approval for such transfers is subject to ensuring that the interests of lenders and other stakeholders are protected, particularly when the shares involved are linked to outstanding liabilities.

Under the proposed arrangement, FCS Holdings planned to acquire the shares without making any direct cash payment to the selling sponsors. Instead, the company intended to assume responsibility for settling certain financial obligations of Yeakin Polymer, including bank loans and outstanding supplier payments.

Sources said the plan was part of a broader strategy to restructure the finances and management of the struggling polymer manufacturer.

If approved, the transaction would have allowed FCS Holdings to become a major shareholder and potentially play a key role in reviving the company's operations. The plan also included restructuring the board of directors, with representatives of FCS Holdings expected to join the board after the share transfer. However, the lack of lender consent halted the process.

Market analysts note that when shares are pledged against bank loans or linked to corporate liabilities, obtaining lender approval is essential. Without such consent, regulators generally do not allow ownership changes to proceed. Yeakin Polymer, a publicly listed company, has been facing business and financial challenges in recent years.

The company raised Tk20 crore from the capital market through an initial public offering (IPO) in 2016 to expand its operations. However, its performance declined after government policies encouraged the use of environmentally friendly jute sacks instead of polymer bags for agricultural packaging, reducing demand for the company's core products.

Since listing, Yeakin Polymer has struggled to maintain profitability and declared only a 1% cash dividend once after its IPO, reflecting weak financial performance.

Due to prolonged operational challenges and failure to meet certain listing requirements, the company has also been placed in the Z category on the stock exchanges.

The proposed takeover by FCS Holdings initially drew attention from investors who hoped the change in ownership could revive operations and improve the company's financial condition.

But with the commission cancelling the proposal due to incomplete documentation, the future of the planned takeover remains uncertain.

Rising food and service costs are eroding household purchasing power, particularly for lower-income groups whose consumption baskets are more heavily weighted toward essentials, according to the latest monthly economic update by the General Economics Division (GED).

The report released yesterday said the divergence between wage growth and price inflation widened further in January 2026.

While general inflation rose to 8.58 percent, wage growth remained stagnant at 8.08 percent, following 8.07 percent in December.

Since September 2025, inflation has consistently outpaced wages: inflation moved from 8.36 percent in September to 8.17 percent in October, 8.29 percent in November, 8.49 percent in December, and 8.58 percent in January.

In contrast, wage growth hovered narrowly between 8.01 percent and 8.08 percent over the same period.

“This sustained gap signals pressure on real incomes,” said the report, adding, “The persistence of this mismatch suggests that nominal wage adjustments are failing to keep pace with inflationary dynamics.”

“This identifies a need for coordinated wage and price management, as inflationary pressures continue to undermine real income stability,” added the report by GED under the planning ministry.

Food inflation rose to 8.29 percent in January from 7.71 percent in December, the report said, while non-food inflation moderated to 8.81 percent from 9.13 percent over the same period, narrowing the inflation differential between the two components.

“The recent trend indicates continued pressure from food prices within the overall inflation framework.”

Food remains the largest contributor to overall inflation and accounted for 43.06 percent in January, up 3 percentage points from December.

Housing and utilities contributed 15.05 percent, while miscellaneous goods and services accounted for 9.31 percent.

“The increase in food’s contribution suggests a greater concentration of inflationary pressure within essential consumption items.”

The report said notable increases were recorded in clothing and footwear, housing and utilities, and food.

It, however, said the internal composition warrants closer examination, citing that the contribution from rice to inflation decreased, but contributions from other food components continue to sustain overall food inflation.

“Despite a good harvest, higher vegetable prices are largely attributed to increased transportation costs and unhealthy profit motives among wholesale and middlemen traders. This highlights the need for improved supply chain management of food items, particularly rice, vegetables, and fish, to contain inflationary pressures more effectively.”

“Closer examination of item-wise prices at the market level remains essential for targeted policy action.”

The GED report also highlighted lower-than-targeted revenue collection by the National Board of Revenue and weak implementation of the government’s Annual Development Programme (ADP), suggesting urgent reform in planning, procurement, and fund release.

“Policymakers now face a trade-off: emergency fast-tracking with higher fiduciary risks versus focusing on fewer priority projects for quality outcomes. Without systemic reforms in planning, procurement, and fund release, fiscal year 2025-26 is poised to record the lowest ADP implementation rate, undermining infrastructure delivery and development goals.”

The GED also flagged risks from the high reliance on the apparel sector for exports.

At the same time, the very low share of capital machinery in total imports suggests limited investment-driven expansion, indicating that the recent rise in import payments is primarily consumption- or input-driven rather than linked to capacity-building.

“Taken together, the combination of strong apparel exports and weak capital machinery imports underscores the need for policies that promote investment in productive capacity and diversification, which are critical for sustaining external stability and supporting medium-term structural transformation.”

The GED report said the new government should give priority to attracting investment, generating employment, and reining in inflation to build a solid foundation for the economy.

“Restoring confidence among both local and foreign investors, further boosting foreign exchange reserves, and ensuring exchange rate stability will remain essential to strengthening overall economic stability.”

Unilever Consumer Care Limited has recommended a 420% cash dividend for its shareholders for the year ended 31 December 2025, according to a price-sensitive disclosure approved on 5 March.

The company had declared a higher 520% cash dividend for the previous year. The proposed dividend will be placed for approval at the annual general meeting scheduled for 18 May, while the record date to determine eligible shareholders has been fixed for 6 April.

The healthcare and consumer products manufacturer reported improved profitability during the year. Earnings per share rose 19% year-on-year to Tk41.21. However, the net asset value per share declined by 8.30% to Tk116.30.

Despite higher profits, the company posted a negative net operating cash flow per share of Tk21.54, compared to a positive Tk25.62 in the previous year.

In its disclosure, the company said profit growth was mainly driven by strong revenue performance and improved operational efficiency. It also benefited from a one-off gain arising from the reassessment of prior obligations related to technology and trademark royalty payments. Additionally, efficient investment of surplus cash contributed to significantly higher net finance income during the year.

The decline in net asset value per share was attributed to the higher dividend payout in the 2025 financial year compared to the earnings generated during the same period.

Explaining the sharp change in operating cash flow, the company said that although profit increased, net operating cash flow per share dropped significantly due to the settlement of all outstanding Usance Payable at Sight (UPAS) letters of credit during the year, without availing any new UPAS facilities.

As a result, the company experienced a substantial cash outflow during the period compared to the operating profit generated.

UPAS is a widely used trade finance instrument structured as a letter of credit that allows importers to defer payment while exporters receive immediate payment.

Under this arrangement, banks bridge the payment timing gap by financing the transaction, enabling buyers to pay later while ensuring sellers are paid at sight.

Unilever Consumer Care shares closed 0.37% down at Tk2,153 each on Thursday at the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE).

According to the shareholding report for January, sponsors and directors hold 92.80% shares in the company, while institutional investors have 3.58%, foreign investors have 0.11% and the remaining 3.51% are held by public shareholders.

Deposit growth in banks hit a five-year high at the end of December 2025 -- owing to a gradual recovery in confidence among savers.

Banks in the country recorded Tk 21 lakh crore in savings at the end of last year, which was 11.51 percent higher year-on-year, according to quarterly statistics of scheduled banks published by the Bangladesh Bank (BB).

With this growth, deposits in 61 banks crossed the Tk 20 lakh crore mark, the highest so far.

“It appears that people’s confidence in banks is gradually being restored,” said Md Mahiul Islam, deputy managing director at BRAC Bank.

But not all banks registered an increased flow of savings. The deposit surge is limited to some seven to eight banks, he said.

The BB data showed that private banks, including Islamic banks, accounted for 69.52 percent of the total deposits, followed by state banks and foreign banks.

In 2024, the growth of deposits in the banking sector slowed due to a confidence crisis centring on some banks that suffered from high loan irregularities and faced problems returning money to savers on demand, even though most banks offered high interest on savings.

The BB had to inject funds into those weak banks to help them overcome a liquidity crisis.

A top banker at a private bank said a number of banks still face challenges in attracting savers.

The Bangladesh Bank Quarterly -- another report by the central bank -- said, “A gradual easing of inflationary pressure apparently halted dissaving by households and businesses, leading to strong inflows into time and savings deposits.”

It said the robust expansion of bank deposits reflects increased savings and a higher public propensity to hold financial assets in the formal banking sector.

“This trend was further supported by heightened public confidence in the banking industry, likely resulting from recent political developments that fostered greater stability and trust,” it said.

Despite deposit expansion, banks recorded the slowest growth in loans and advances in 2025 amid muted investment demand from the private sector due to rising interest rates and banks’ cautious lending to avoid a buildup of default loans.

Banks gave Tk 17.77 lakh crore in loans and advances, up 5.6 percent from a year ago.

The BB in its quarterly said advance growth remained steady, reflecting banks’ cautious lending amid high NPLs and tighter monetary policy.

Four vessels carrying about 247,000 tonnes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and two ships transporting nearly 35,000 tonnes of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) are heading to Chattogram Port.

The vessels had already crossed the strategic Strait of Hormuz before tensions escalated in the Middle East, and thus, easing concerns over any immediate gas supply disruption when the country is going through a panic of fuel shortage.

Confirming the matter, Md Nurul Alam, senior deputy general manager of Uni Global Business Limited, the local representative of the LNG carriers, said the arrival of the four vessels is almost certain.

However, another LNG carrier named Libretha is currently waiting inside the Strait of Hormuz after loading cargo and has yet to pass through the waterway.

"If the situation deteriorates further, future LNG shipments may face uncertainty," he said.

Port and shipping sources say the vessels had already passed through the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf of Oman days before the conflict intensified following joint strikes by the United States and Israel on Iran on 28 February.

Altogether, 15 vessels carrying LNG, LPG and cement raw materials are now arriving at Chattogram.

Of them, 12 have already reached the port while three more are expected within this week. The ships are carrying nearly 750,000 tonnes of cargo in total.

LNG shipments from Qatar

Two LNG carriers, Al Zor and Al Jasasiya, have already arrived at Chattogram carrying about 126,000 tonnes of LNG from Ras Laffan Port in Qatar.

Two more vessels, Lusail and Al Galaiel, are scheduled to reach the port's outer anchorage on Monday and Wednesday respectively.

Together, the four ships are bringing roughly 247,000 tonnes of LNG to Bangladesh.

Shipping data show the vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz between two and seven days before the conflict escalated.

Government agencies have also purchased two additional LNG cargoes from the spot market at higher prices to avoid potential supply shortages, though those vessels have not yet arrived.

LPG cargo for Meghna Group

An LPG carrier named Sevan is scheduled to arrive at Chattogram on Sunday carrying 22,172 tonnes of LPG from Sohar Port in Oman.

Another vessel, GYMM, carrying 19,316 tonnes of LPG from the same port had already reached the port before the conflict escalated.

The two ships together are delivering nearly 35,000 tonnes of LPG for Meghna Fresh LPG, a concern of Meghna Group of Industries.

Apart from energy shipments, several vessels carrying clinker and other raw materials for the cement industry have also reached Chattogram from Gulf ports.

These include clinker, gypsum, limestone and stone, with around 515,000 tonnes of such materials arriving from the region.

Officials say Bangladesh imported goods worth nearly $6 billion from Gulf countries through the Strait of Hormuz during the 2024-25 fiscal year.

However, if tensions persist around the waterway, fresh shipments could face disruptions in the coming weeks.

US retail gasoline and diesel prices are soaring as the US-Israel war with Iran constrains oil and fuel exports, which could be a political test for President Donald Trump's Republican Party ahead ​of midterm elections in November.

Fuel prices jumped more than 10% this week as oil rose above $90 a barrel, its highest in years, adding pain at the ‌pump for consumers already strained by inflation. Trump on Thursday shrugged off higher gasoline prices in an interview with Reuters, opens new tab, saying "if they rise, they rise."

The president had vowed to lower energy prices and unleash US oil and gas drilling during his second term, but much of his tenure has been marked by volatility and uncertainty amid shifts in policies like tariffs and geopolitical turmoil. The US is the world's largest oil producer. It is a major exporter ​but also imports millions of barrels a day since it is the world's largest oil consumer.

As of Friday, the national average prices for regular gasoline stood at $3.32 a ​gallon, up 11% from a week ago and the highest since September 2024, according to data from the motorists association AAA. Diesel was at $4.33, ⁠up 15% from a week ago, surging to the highest since November 2023.

MIDWEST, SOUTH FEEL THE PINCH

US motorists in parts of the Midwest and the South, including states that supported Trump, have ​seen some of the steepest increases in fuel costs since the conflict in Iran started.

In Georgia, a swing state, average retail gasoline prices rose 40.1 cents a gallon over the past week, ​according to fuel tracking site GasBuddy.

Andrenna McDaniel, a healthcare insurance worker in South Fulton, Georgia, said she was surprised to see prices skyrocket overnight.

"They jumped up so quickly," she said on Friday, adding that she does not agree with the war at all.

McDaniel, a Democrat, said that for now she is only driving for the most important things, and feels lucky that she works from home so she does not have to drive as ​much as other people do.

Georgia voted for Donald Trump in the 2024 election.

Trump voter Richard Soule, 69, a US Air Force veteran and a retired firefighter, said a little pain at the pump ​is worth Trump's efforts to protect America.

"When President Trump went in there and bombed out their nuclear, and they just thumbed their nose at it, I believe he did the right thing at the right ‌time," Soule said ⁠on Friday as he filled up his Ford F-150 truck in Marietta, Georgia.

Other states, including Indiana and West Virginia have seen prices rise by 44.3 cents and 43.9 cents, respectively.

PRICES MAY RISE FURTHER

More pain may be on the way, analysts said, as oil prices continue to trend upward. On Friday, US oil futures settled at $90.90 a barrel, up nearly $10 and the biggest single-day rise since April 2020.

"Given current market conditions, the national average price of gasoline could climb toward $3.50 to $3.70 per gallon in the coming days if oil continues rising and supply disruptions persist," GasBuddy analyst Patrick De ​Haan said.

The disruptions in the Middle East and ​the Strait of Hormuz, a key trade ⁠conduit, have boosted demand for US oil abroad, which in turn has driven up prices for domestic refiners too.

"The US has weaned itself off of its dependence on Middle Eastern crude, but obviously Asian refineries, and to a lesser extent, European refineries have not," Denton Cinquegrana, chief oil ​analyst with OPIS. "That's what you're seeing happen in the spot market, because the demand for US exports rise, and so the price rise."

Seasonal ​factors could add further ⁠pressure. Gasoline prices typically go up in the spring and peak in the summer due to higher gasoline demand and production of summer-blend gasoline, which is more costly to produce.

Diesel fuel saw an even more aggressive jump since Iran began retaliating against US and Israeli strikes, significantly disrupting shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.

Global diesel inventories have remained in tight supply due to heavy demand for heating and power generation ⁠during a ​prolonged winter in the US and other parts of the world and a structural tightness of refining capacity.

Sticker prices ​of everything from food to furniture go up when the cost of diesel goes up, as the fuel is mainly used in freight transportation, manufacturing, agriculture, and global shipping, analysts said.

"In a world where buzzword seems to be 'affordability', that is ​certainly not going to help," Cinquegrana said.

Turmoil in the Middle East has sent investors scrambling for safety once more, reigniting a debate over which assets truly offer protection in times of stress.

The choice is complicated, as traditional refuges behave unpredictably. Gold has swung sharply and the dollar - which has ​been out of favour in the past year - has bounced back.

Here is a look at how some of the favourites stack up:

Greenback passes a test

The dollar has arguably performed ‌the best among safe havens this week.

The dollar index, which tracks the US currency against six others, is up 1.5%. The dollar has even gained against the Swiss franc and yen, which both typically outperform at times of market stress.

That is particularly notable as the dollar weakened when stocks fell following last April's tariff turmoil, raising question marks about its safe-haven status.

It is short-term dollar cash that is in demand, not other dollar assets, flow data shows.

Of course, the US is a net ​energy exporter, so a crisis like this that sends benchmark Brent crude oil above $80 a barrel should help.

"The dollar has some safe-haven characteristics, but it is context specific," said Morgan Stanley ​head of FX strategy James Lord.

And that will not always be the case, he said, because US policy uncertainty has eroded the currency's safe-haven characteristics.

No safety ⁠in sovereigns

Government bonds have struggled to attract the kind of safe-haven flows typically seen during geopolitical shocks, with investors trading them primarily on the inflation outlook rather than on their defensive qualities.

Fiscal considerations, such ​as Germany's relaxation of its debt brake, to broader worries about heavier government borrowing have also outweighed the haven appeal.

Yields on Germany's 10-year Bunds, the euro zone benchmark, have jumped 14 basis points so far this ​week.

"Germany is a flight-to-quality kind of investment, but you don't really want to be playing around at the long end of the bull market if they're raising more debt," Bryn Jones, head of fixed income for Rathbones, said.

Gold's safe-haven street cred is solid

Gold's safe-haven credibility is strong, judging by its 240% surge so far this decade.

Yes, it is proving volatile too, falling sharply on Tuesday. Analysts reckon that was partly because investors sold top-performing assets to make up for losses elsewhere, ​as concern about the Middle East conflict whacked market sentiment.

But this should not detract from gold's safe-haven status, which remains intact, given worries about inflation, geopolitics and high debt, they add.

State Street said gold ​remained under-owned in portfolio terms, with gold exchange-traded fund allocations still under 1% of global fund assets, below the 5-10% range it cites as a strategic allocation range.

"As a base case, $6,000 is more likely than $4,000 this year, and ‌we're just ⁠above $5,000," said Aakash Doshi, head of gold strategy at State Street Investment Management. "That's a clear point to make."

Classic FX refuges put to the test

The Swiss franc and the Japanese yen, long regarded as currency havens, have slipped 1.2% and 0.8% so far this week.

"The one that looks relatively attractive from a valuation perspective is still probably the Japanese yen. It stands out to me as one that can provide protection in this environment," said Justin Onuekwusi, chief investment officer at St James's Place.

But political uncertainty has added a layer of risk to the outlook for the yen after reports that Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi ​has voiced reservations about further rate hikes.

Meanwhile, analysts ​caution that the franc's upside may be constrained, ⁠given the Swiss National Bank's warning that it stands ready to step in to curb excessive strength.

"Elevated SNB intervention risks would likely diminish its haven attributes during the current shock," Goldman Sachs strategist Teresa Alves said.

Defensive stocks are not helping

Stocks often perform poorly at times of market stress, though some so-called defensive sectors, ​for example, utilities or consumer staples, typically see smaller declines.

But that has not happened this time.

The S&P utilities and consumer staples sectors are down 1% ​and 2.8%, respectively, this week, ⁠while the S&P 500 is flat. In Europe, utilities are down 3% and consumer staples are down 4.5% compared to a 3% fall for the STOXX 600.

This is partly because they had already been doing well. One big investment theme, until the war began at least, was buying "hard assets" like infrastructure and industrials.

More broadly, defensive value stocks have been outperforming growth stocks, and some have done very well.

"When you're investing in the classically defensive ⁠sectors at the ​level of current interest rates, you have to be much more disciplined about relative prices," said James Bristow, portfolio manager ​at Templeton Global Investments.

"I own shares in Pepsi, for example, ... [it] isn't the highest quality company, but the starting point was very low ... that's a different margin of safety from if you're buying shares in, say, Nestle."

Asia stocks fell on Friday (6 March) and were headed for their sharpest weekly drop in six years, ​while oil prices were poised for their biggest jump in four years in a turbulent week for global markets as the conflict in the Middle East ‌showed few signs of easing.

Investors sought the safety of cash as they sobered up to the fact that the US-Israel war on Iran could drag on longer than initially anticipated.

They also moved to price in more hawkish rate expectations from major central banks, spooked by the prospect of a resurgence in inflation if the spike in energy prices persists.

Yields on US Treasuries have shot up some 18 basis points ​this week, their most in nearly a year, while the dollar was set for its largest weekly gain in 16 months.

"The range of plausible outcomes [of ​the war] has expanded to include both the possibility of an exceptionally constructive resolution and a highly destructive one," said Daleep Singh, ⁠chief global economist at PGIM Fixed Income.

"Markets are being asked to price a much fatter set of tails with very little reliable information about the likelihood of each, ​or the path in between."

The war has thus far had the biggest impact on oil prices, with Brent crude futures now trading around $83 per barrel, having been as low ​as $69 just about a week ago. US crude shot up to a 20-month high earlier this week.

Both are set to clock a rise of more than 15% for the week, their largest since February 2022.

"The most market-relevant risk lies in severe escalation or direct infrastructure damage across key Gulf producers, which would likely produce sustained upward pressure on oil, feed into higher headline inflation, tighten global ​liquidity and materially raise recession risks," said Klay Group's senior investment team.

High-flying stocks tumble

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan last traded 0.4% lower and was set ​to fall 6.6% for the week, which would mark its steepest weekly drop since March 2020.

Japan's Nikkei was down 0.5% and on track for a 6.5% weekly loss, while South Korea's Kospi was also ⁠headed for its largest weekly fall in six years with a 10.5% slide.

The market rout this week sent even high-flying technology stocks and indexes such as the Kospi tumbling, as investors scrambled to book profits to cover losses elsewhere.

"When the dollar rallies and US yields rise, funding conditions are tightening, which will often exacerbate broader moves, particularly if there's leverage involved," said Ben Bennett, head of Asia investment strategy at L&G Asset Management.

US stock futures were steady in Asia on Friday, while EUROSTOXX 50 futures rose 0.6% ​and DAX futures added 0.5%.

Dollar is king

The ​dollar has emerged as one of ⁠the few winners this week in volatile sessions that have dragged stocks, bonds and, at times, even safe-haven precious metals lower.

The rally in the dollar hit pause on Friday, but it was still on track for a 1.4% weekly gain, bolstered by safe-haven demand and ​reduced US rate-easing expectations.

The euro, which remains vulnerable to a spike in energy prices, was set to fall 1.7% for ​the week, while sterling ⁠was similarly headed for a 0.95% weekly drop.

Investors are now pricing in about 40 basis points worth of easing from the Federal Reserve this year, down from 56 bps a week ago, while odds for a rate cut from the Bank of England this month have fallen to 23% from a near certainty just last week.

The European Central Bank is seen ⁠hiking rates ​by year-end.

The shifting rate expectations have, in turn, pushed up global bond yields, and in Asia on ​Friday, the yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury was steady at 4.1421%, having risen some 18 bps this week.

The two-year yield has jumped 20 bps for the week.

Elsewhere, spot gold was steady at $5,078.88 an ounce, ​though it was headed for a 3.7% weekly fall as rising yields and a stronger dollar eclipsed the yellow metal's safe-haven appeal.

A comprehensive policy is in the making to strengthen internal resource mobilisation through a broader framework for non-tax revenue collection and management and plugging systemic holes, officials said.

Titled 'Policy for Non-Tax Revenue (NTR) and Other Tax Revenue Collection and Proper Management 2026,' the draft policy proposes a series of reforms aimed at reducing reliance on foreign loans and grants by diversifying revenue sources.

The proposed framework places strong emphasis on environmental taxation, digital revenue systems, and stricter financial discipline for state-owned enterprises (SOEs), according to officials familiar with the move.

The initiative is part of a wider effort to improve the country's fiscal capacity and enhance transparency in public revenue collection.

As part of a shift toward environmentally aligned fiscal measures, the policy proposes the introduction of several "green" levies or fees.

A carbon tax is planned for large polluting entities, initially targeting industries emitting more than 25,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO?) annually, says a source concerned.

The draft also proposes pollution-related fees covering waste management, plastic use, and broader environmental contamination.

In addition, private vehicles that are not environmentally friendly could face higher carbon-emission charges, the source adds.

The policy also proposes the introduction of Electronic Road Pricing (ERP) systems in metropolitan areas and major highways to manage traffic congestion and raise additional revenue.

Under the proposed system, vehicles would be charged automatically through electronic transponders when passing designated ERP gates.

Charges could vary depending on traffic conditions, with higher fees during peak hours intended to discourage congestion and encourage the use of public transport.

To strengthen transparency and prevent revenue leakage, the draft policy emphasises a transition to a fully digitised revenue-collection system.

The officials say the policy proposes the creation of a centralised integrated database that will allow real-time monitoring of revenue collection across ministries and agencies.

All government payments will also be required to use automated challan systems developed by the government.

The policy further requires strict adherence to the Treasury Single Account (TSA) system so that all collected revenues are deposited directly into the government treasury.

Under the proposed rules, government offices would not be allowed to hold revenue in private bank accounts without prior approval from the authorities.

The policy also proposes stronger financial discipline for state-owned enterprises.

The SOEs would be required to deposit at least 30 per cent of their net profit after tax into the government treasury as mandatory dividends.

The government agencies receiving loans from the state would also be required to follow strict repayment schedules.

Failure to comply could result in the imposition of penalty interest, the officials say.

The policy outlines changes to the management of government-owned or khas land, aiming to move away from the traditional model of perpetual ownership.

Instead, the government plans to promote long-term leasing arrangements to improve utilisation of public land.

The draft also proposes establishing a land- bank system to manage unused government land and facilitate its use through public-private partnership (PPP) arrangements.

To implement the policy, the government plans to establish two key oversight bodies.

A high-level task force, chaired by the finance secretary, would review and approve revenue-related fee structures across ministries.

Meanwhile, fee revision committees would evaluate government service fees every three years using a full-cost -analysis approach.

By formalising the collection of fees, fines, dividends and environmental levies, the government expects to create additional fiscal space for development spending.

"Successful implementation of this policy will directly increase the revenue-GDP ratio, a vital indicator of economic self-sufficiency," the draft document notes.Economic emergency law

If approved, the policy will provide a structured framework for managing non-tax revenue sources and strengthening public financial management across government institutions, the senior official added.

Upon the effective date of the draft policy, the 'Non-Tax Revenue and Non-NBR Tax Revenue Management Guidelines 2024' will be deemed to be repealed.

Despite a steep fall in the benchmark indices last week amid Middle East tensions, several Z-category stocks – commonly considered junk shares – dominated the gainers' chart on the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE).

Premier Leasing emerged as the top gainer of the week, surging 44.44% to close at Tk2.60. Fareast Finance, FAS Finance and Peoples Leasing each rose 41.18% to Tk2.40, while International Leasing advanced 37.50% to Tk2.20.

Other notable gainers included Familytex, which climbed 31.82% to Tk2.90, Tung Hai Knitting rose 30.77% to Tk3.40, and Nurani Dyeing gained 29.63% to Tk3.50. Generation Next increased 25% to Tk3.50, while Appollo Ispat advanced 24.14% to close the week at Tk3.60.

However, all the companies that led the weekly gainers' chart are currently loss-making, according to market data. Several of them are also facing severe operational challenges.

Market information from the Dhaka bourse shows that Familytex, Tung Hai Knitting, Nurani Dyeing, Generation Next and Appollo Ispat are currently out of operation.

A number of the top gainers are non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs), many of which are struggling with weak financial conditions and potential liquidation risks.

Market insiders said investors largely targeted low-priced stocks during the week, regardless of their financial performance or operational status. They added that speculation surrounding the future of troubled NBFIs has also fuelled interest in these shares.

Earlier, the central bank had initiated steps to liquidate several weak and loss-making NBFIs. However, following the change in government, investors appear to be betting that these institutions may avoid liquidation. Driven by such expectations, many traders have been buying these stocks in hopes of booking short-term gains.

Bangladesh has moved quickly to avert potential fuel and gas shortages triggered by the Middle East war, securing critical imports from alternative markets to keep national energy demand met throughout March.

Officials said the government finalised imports of 2.80 lakh tonnes of refined diesel from Malaysia, Singapore and other sources, ensuring supply for the rest of the month.

Two LNG shipments from Singapore have also been secured as contingency, while Bloomberg reported that an LNG cargo from Qatar is en route to Bangladesh, easing fears of disruption.

Concerns had mounted that the conflict involving Iran, the United States and Israel could destabilise global energy supply chains, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route for Bangladesh's crude oil imports from Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

Iran has since clarified that it will not obstruct vessels from other nations, except those of the US and Israel, allowing Bangladesh's shipments to continue.

'No reason for panic'

Energy and Power Minister Iqbal Hasan Mahmud Tuku told reporters after meeting Prime Minister Tarique Rahman that reserves remain sufficient. "Two more oil tankers will arrive on 9 March. There is no reason for panic," he said, urging consumers not to queue overnight at petrol pumps.

Simultaneously, international news agency Bloomberg has reported that an LNG cargo from Qatar is currently en route to Bangladesh, a development that is expected to alleviate fears of a gas shortage.

Officials said Bangladesh had 1,15,473 tonnes of diesel in stock as of 4 March, enough to meet demand for about nine days.

Monir Hossain Chowdhury, joint secretary (operations) at the Energy and Mineral Resources Division, told TBS that a significant portion of the diesel is already en route to Bangladesh, while the rest is being loaded and will arrive shortly.

"Therefore, the amount of diesel required for March has already been confirmed. There should be no shortage if consumers refrain from panic buying," he said.

Bangladesh's monthly diesel demand is 3.80 lakh tonnes, he said, adding, "We now have over 1 lakh tonnes of diesel in stock. Besides, 2.80 lakh tonnes of refined diesel imports have been finalised."

Monir further said, "A significant portion of this is being imported from Malaysia and Singapore. Some of this fuel is already en route to Bangladesh, while further shipments are currently being loaded and are expected to arrive shortly."

He said that there is an existing agreement to import 1.80 lakh tonnes of diesel from India each month, and that supply is currently arriving on a regular basis.

"However, due to the storage capacity at Parbatipur being limited to 5,000 tonnes, it is not possible to increase imports from the neighbouring country at this time, even if desired."

Monir said, "We have agreements with various countries for the import of an additional 1 lakh tonnes of diesel. None of those countries have yet indicated that they would be unable to meet the supply.

"Even if they fail to deliver, we have alternative suppliers available, and we will be able to procure imports from these backup sources if the need arises."

Supply at pumps

However, transport operators in Dhaka reported that petrol pumps are supplying diesel in limited quantities due to increased demand.

Some long-distance bus and truck operators said they were receiving less fuel than required, forcing them to reduce the number of trips.

Monir Hossain Chowdhury said, "As long as no one buys excess diesel, there is no reason for a shortage at the pumps."

No crisis for other fuels

Stocks of other fuels also remain adequate. As of 4 March, the country currently has 28,152 tonnes of octane, sufficient for around 15 days, and 17,364 tonnes of petrol, enough for roughly eight days, officials said.

Although Bangladesh mainly produces octane domestically, a small portion is imported to supplement supply. Officials said around 40,000 tonnes of petrol and octane are expected to arrive later this month to stabilise supply further.

Furnace oil reserves currently stand at 66,192 tonnes, enough to meet power plants' demand for approximately 59 days, suggesting that electricity generation is unlikely to be disrupted.

Officials also confirmed that the jet fuel supply remains stable. Bangladesh had 41,084 tonnes of jet fuel in stock as of 4 March, sufficient for 36 days, while another 20,000 tonnes are expected to arrive between 22 and 25 March.

The number of flights departing from Bangladesh to the Middle East has significantly decreased, which in turn has reduced the demand for jet fuel. Consequently, there is no anticipated shortage of jet fuel.

Kamrul Islam, GM (PR) of US-Bangla Airlines, told TBS, "So far, we have not yet seen the impact of the war on jet fuel. However, we are concerned that if the war continues in this manner, the issues of a potential jet fuel shortage or price hikes could emerge."

Gas scare managed

To conserve the potential gas, the government has temporarily halted gas supply to all but one fertiliser factory, while sufficient fertiliser stocks remain available.

So far, there have been no major reports of gas shortages affecting households, industries or filling stations.

The Bloomberg on Friday (6 March) reported that Qatar appears to have loaded its first liquefied natural gas cargoes after the widening conflict in the Middle East forced it to halt fuel production and declare an unprecedented force majeure to buyers.

The vessel Al Ghashamiya loaded this week at the nation's Ras Laffan export terminal and is now waiting in the Persian Gulf, and a second tanker, the Lebrethah, departed from the terminal Friday, according to Bloomberg.

The Lebrethah is signalling Bangladesh as its next destination, with an estimated arrival on 14 March, but the trip still depends on navigation in the crucial Strait of Hormuz, which is effectively closed for commercial ships in the wake of the Iran war.

Four LNG, two LPG vessels head to Chattogram

Four vessels carrying about 2.47 lakh tonnes of LNG and two ships transporting nearly 35,000 tonnes of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) are heading to Chattogram Port after crossing the Strait of Hormuz before tensions escalated in the Middle East, easing concerns over any immediate gas supply disruption when the country is going through a panic of fuel shortage.

4 LNG, 2 LPG vessels that crossed Strait of Hormuz before Middle East conflict now headed to Ctg

Altogether, 15 vessels carrying LNG, LPG and cement raw materials are now arriving at Chattogram.

Of them, 12 have already reached the port while three more are expected within this week. The ships are carrying nearly 7.50 lakh tonnes of cargo in total.

Two LNG carriers have already arrived at Chattogram carrying about 1.26 lakh tonnes of LNG from Qatar.

Two more vessels are scheduled to reach the port's outer anchorage tomorrow and Wednesday, respectively.

Together, the four ships are bringing roughly 2.47 lakh tonnes of LNG to Bangladesh.

An LPG carrier was scheduled to arrive at Chattogram yesterday carrying 22,172 tonnes of LPG from Sohar Port in Oman.

Another vessel, carrying 19,316 tonnes of LPG from the same port, had already reached the port before the war.

The two ships together are delivering nearly 35,000 tonnes of LPG for Meghna Fresh LPG, a concern of Meghna Group of Industries.

The war in the Middle East has stalled more than 1,000 TEUs (twenty-foot equivalent units) of weekly exports from Chattogram Port after major shipping lines suspended bookings, leaving exporters facing mounting storage costs and uncertainty.

Containers carrying potatoes, agro-products, frozen foods and ready-made garments are now stranded at private inland container depots (ICDs), as exporters wait for shipping routes to reopen while absorbing additional depot and plugging charges.

One of the first casualties of the disruption is a seasonal potato shipment prepared for export to Dubai.

After processing and packaging, a 28-tonne consignment from SR Impex Ltd arrived in Chattogram from Bogura on 1 March. It was scheduled to be shipped to Jebel Ali port the following day. But the cargo never left the depot.

The container is now sitting at a private ICD after shipping lines abruptly stopped accepting bookings to Middle Eastern destinations due to security risks.

"While we were loading the cargo, the shipping line suddenly informed us they would no longer accept bookings and cancelled the slot," said Mohammad Forkan, managing director of SR Impex Ltd and general secretary of the Fresh Food and Fruits Exporters Association.

Infograph: TBS
Infograph: TBS

"We somehow arranged another container from a depot and plugged it in to preserve the potatoes. Now we are paying plugging and depot charges just to store them. We do not know what will happen next," he said.

He added, "Every week, around 450 tonnes of potatoes, another 450 tonnes of agro and food products, and nearly 300 tonnes of frozen foods are exported to Middle Eastern countries through the Chattogram port and the airport. Including RMG and other exports, the total value reaches around $17 million. Most of these shipments are now disrupted."

Exporters fear the disruption could deepen if the conflict drags on, squeezing Bangladesh's trade and raising costs across multiple industries.

Garment exporters fear missing Eid market

The disruption is also worrying exporters in Bangladesh's largest export sector – ready-made garments.

Although the Middle East accounts for only over $800 million, or roughly 2% of Bangladesh's apparel exports, the market becomes crucial during the Eid shopping season.

Exporters say the conflict erupted just as shipments normally begin for the festive market.

"We have already purchased raw materials, produced goods and placed orders," said garment exporter Abdus Salam.

"Our buyers need these products to stock their showrooms for Eid. Normally, shipments begin at the start of Ramadan. But the war started exactly at that time."

He added, "Our goods cannot be shipped and their showrooms are empty. At the same time, our workers expect Eid bonuses and salaries. We are facing a very difficult situation."

Shipping lines suspend bookings

Shipping companies confirm that container bookings to many Middle Eastern destinations have been suspended.

Azmir Hossain Chowdhury, head of operations at MSC Shipping, said the company had received instructions not to accept bookings for the region and had suspended bookings from 2 March.

"Other shipping lines are doing the same. As a result, weekly exports of around 800 to 1,200 TEUs to Middle Eastern countries are being affected," he said.

Freight costs from China rise

The crisis is also adding pressure on Bangladesh's import supply chain.

With maritime routes facing disruption, freight rates from China — the main source of raw materials for the country's industries — have already started rising.

Industry insiders say shipping costs from Chinese ports have increased by roughly $300 per container in recent days.

Rakibul Alam, a former vice-president of the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association, said the higher freight cost is becoming a major concern for importers.

"For high-cube containers, freight from China has increased by around $500 in some cases," he said.

"Chinese ports have resumed exports after earlier disruptions and our import flow is picking up again. But the biggest challenge right now is the higher shipping cost."

Major carriers restrict services

Global shipping companies have begun tightening operations in the conflict-affected region.

Shipping giant Maersk has suspended all vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz since 1 March and stopped accepting new bookings to several destinations, including the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar and Oman.

COSCO Shipping Lines has also temporarily suspended cargo services to certain ports, including Qatar, Bahrain, Iraq and Kuwait, due to security concerns and navigation restrictions.

However, COSCO said operations would continue to ports that do not require vessels to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, such as Jeddah in Saudi Arabia and the UAE ports of Khor Fakkan and Fujairah.

Sean Robinson, a 54-year-old schoolteacher in the US capital Washington, did not realize how high gas prices had gotten until he arrived at the pump on Friday.

“That is a sizeable jump,” he told AFP, pointing to a neon sign showing $3.27 for a gallon of regular gasoline.

Robinson is among US consumers feeling the sting of a cost surge sparked by the US-Israel war on Iran, which sent oil prices soaring as Tehran effectively blocked the Strait of Hormuz after being attacked.

But the price hike comes at a politically sensitive time for President Donald Trump as midterm elections approach, hitting voters hard.

Expensive gasoline could also prompt the independent central bank to put the brakes on the world’s largest economy as it battles stubborn inflation.

Since last week, US average domestic fuel prices have risen 11 percent, according to the AAA’s fuel price gauge.

It is the kind of move that Robinson said will have him cutting down on all but the essentials.

“It just determines what I’m going to do on a day-to-day basis,” he said. “Pretty much start thinking about (watching) Netflix, staying in the house instead of burning gas.”

Others at the gas station agreed.

“It impacts all areas of life,” said Toloria Washington, 39. “We are in a state of survival mode.”

Washington, who works in finance, said fuel expenses are non-negotiable for her. With prices rising at the pump, she had to make cuts elsewhere.

That, she said, is a problem for people already battered by years of high prices post-pandemic. “That’s the key thing, it’s tapping into everybody’s basics,” she added. “It’s the basics. Daily survival of food, water, housing.”

US inflation hit a peak of 9.1 percent during the pandemic. While it has cooled since then, analysts warn of risks of another pick-up.

“Inflation showed signs of accelerating prior to the jump in energy prices,” said KPMG chief economist Diane Swonk.

“That has left consumers in a sour mood,” she added.

Swonk warned that rising fuel prices added “insult to injury” for low-income Americans, who are already seeing higher healthcare costs and a tightening of welfare benefits under Trump.

Trump, who has bragged about oil prices falling during his term, sought to address the political fallout on Friday, telling CNN he expected prices to come down quickly.

His Republican party holds only a slim majority in both the House and Senate.

With midterm elections due in November, he will be hoping that voters do not let tightening household budgets weaken his political position.

Trump could see further complications if inflation from gasoline price hikes pushes the Fed to respond by keeping interest rates at a higher level.

The central bank has a dual mandate of maintaining stable prices and maximum employment, but has one main tool to do so -- adjusting interest rates.

Raising them generally cools economic activity and reduces inflation while lowering them can spur activity, boosting the weakening employment market.

The prospect of more inflation due to oil prices raises the specter of what some analysts call a nightmare scenario.

“This could not come at a worse time for the Federal Reserve,” said KPMG’s Swonk. “It now has a dueling mandate with the risk that inflation not only lingers but accelerates.”

Fed policymakers remain cautious.

Addressing higher domestic energy prices on Friday, Federal Reserve governor Christopher Waller told Bloomberg TV he considered them “unlikely to cause sustained inflation.” But this is scant consolation for many Americans hit by even a temporary bout of price increases.

“One thing after another, it’s chaos, you know, every day,” said Lucas Tamaren, 32, at a gas pump in Los Angeles.

“Living in America feels unpredictable and chaotic and it’s hard.”

Robinson, the schoolteacher, said he will be watching gas prices every day now. He expects price pressures will be reflected at the voting booth in November.

“The more you pay higher gas, higher groceries (costs),” he said, voters will “start to see” that the middle class is shrinking.

As escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East create uncertainty over global economic stability, Bangladesh's top eight economists have advised the central bank to preserve foreign currency reserves, hold off on cutting the policy interest rate for now, and closely monitor unusual fluctuations in the dollar market.

These recommendations were made during a meeting at Bangladesh Bank today (7 March) with Governor Mostaqur Rahman, confirmed by spokesperson and executive director Arif Hossain Khan.

The economists noted that the full impact of the Iran-US standoff remains unclear, but warned that if the crisis continues, it could disrupt fuel supplies, affect remittance inflows, and place additional pressure on the dollar market, underscoring the need for a cautious approach.

They insisted that the central bank should protect foreign currency reserves and avoid unnecessary expenditure, particularly on import financing.

To mitigate potential risks in fuel supply, they suggested reducing reliance on the Middle East and exploring alternative sources, including examining the possibility of importing fuel from Brunei, Singapore, and other countries if necessary.

Even with rising global fuel prices, they recommended refraining from immediately passing these costs to consumers, cautioning that such action could worsen inflation and destabilise the broader economy.

With inflation already high, the economists said lowering the policy interest rate now would not likely stimulate investment, and any reduction should be considered only after global conditions stabilise to encourage growth.

The group also urged accelerating disbursement of loans pledged by the World Bank and other development partners and exploring additional financing from the Islamic Development Bank to support fuel imports.

They highlighted that rising tensions in the Middle East could disrupt remittance flows if workers face travel restrictions, stressing that processes should be streamlined to ensure those willing to send money home can do so efficiently.

Acknowledging that global shocks may be unavoidable, the economists advised policymakers to focus on minimising potential economic damage.

Governor Mostaqur Rahman, according to multiple sources, pledged to act with integrity, make decisions free from political influence, and encourage banks to do the same.

They also recommended forming a special committee to monitor economic developments, analyse trends, and advise policymakers, reducing the risk of panic-driven market reactions.

A source present at the meeting, speaking to The Business Standard on condition of anonymity, said the economists emphasised three core points: foreign reserves should not be depleted because substantial dollars are needed for importing essential goods beyond fuel; the policy interest rate should not be reduced under current conditions, as businesses are unlikely to invest; and the central bank should remain vigilant to prevent abnormal spikes in the dollar rate.

The meeting follows Governor Mostaqur Rahman's initial move to lower the policy rate after taking office on 26 February, which was postponed following the resignation of a Monetary Policy Committee member and objections from economists.

The ongoing US-Iran confrontation has created fresh uncertainty over global fuel supply and pricing, prompting the central bank to convene leading economists to assess potential economic impacts.

Officials present from the Bangladesh Bank included the governor, four deputy governors, and senior officials.

Economists attending the meeting were Mustafizur Rahman, fellow at CPD; Fahmida Khatun, executive director at CPD; former cenbank chief economist Mustafa K Mujeri; Mohammad Abdur Razzak, chairman of RAPID; Selim Raihan, executive director of Sanem; Masrur Riaz, chairman of Policy Exchange Bangladesh; AK Enamul Haq, director of Bids; and Najmus Sadat Khan, senior economist at the World Bank Dhaka office.

Qazi Saleemul Huq, director of GQ Ball Pen Industries, has announced plans to gift company shares worth Tk10.50 crore to his sister, Shermin Huq, a general shareholder, marking a transfer of ownership within the family.

According to a disclosure filed with the stock exchanges today (5 March), Saleemul Huq – who currently holds 23.44 lakh shares – will transfer 2 lakh shares, representing ar 2.24% stake in the company, as a gift outside the trading system of the exchanges.

The transfer is expected to be completed within 30 working days starting from 3 March.

After eight consecutive years of losses and steadily declining sales, the company's shares have surged significantly in recent months. Despite weak business fundamentals – including low sales and continued losses – the company's market capitalisation has climbed to about Tk474 crore, even though its annual sales are only around Tk2 crore.

According to data from the Dhaka Stock Exchange, GQ Ball Pen's share price closed at Tk525.10 each today.

The company manufactures various types of ballpoint pens and distributes them to stationery shops through its distributor network as well as to institutional buyers through sales personnel.

GQ Ball Pen has a paid-up capital of Tk8.93 crore, divided into 89.28 lakh shares, with about 60% of the shares held by general investors.

China has told its largest oil refiners to suspend exports of diesel and gasoline, Bloomberg News reported Thursday, citing unidentified sources, as the war in the Middle East risks an energy supply crunch.

China is a net importer of oil and is one of several major Asian economies that depend on the vital Strait of Hormuz for energy. Traffic through the strait is currently blocked.

The Middle East was the source of 57 percent of China’s direct seaborne crude imports in 2025, according to analytics firm Kpler.

Officials from China’s top economic planner, the National Development and Reform Commission, met refinery representatives “and verbally called for a temporary suspension of refined product shipments that would begin immediately”, Bloomberg said Thursday, citing unidentified people familiar with the matter.

“The refiners were asked to stop signing new contracts and to negotiate the cancellation of already-agreed shipments,” it said.

A spokesperson for China’s foreign ministry denied knowledge of the suspension when asked about it at a regular news conference.

PetroChina, Sinopec, CNOOC, Sinochem Group and private refiner Zhejiang Petrochemical regularly obtain fuel export quotas from the government, Bloomberg said.

The companies did not respond to AFP’s requests for comment.

Bangladesh’s top economists have suggested forming an inter-ministerial crisis committee to address public panic over the potential economic shock from the Middle East crisis.

They recommended that the committee provide regular briefings to prevent unnecessary alarm. The proposal came during a meeting between the Bangladesh Bank governor and eight leading economists at the central bank headquarters today.

Deputy governors, members of the Monetary Policy Committee, and the chief economist of Bangladesh Bank also attended the meeting.

Md Mostaqur Rahman, the new governor of Bangladesh Bank, convened the discussion in light of the ongoing Middle East crisis.

Central bank officials said the economists advised against using foreign exchange reserves under any circumstances. Since reserves are limited, alternative methods of paying for oil imports must be explored.

“If necessary, agreements should be reached with exporting countries such as Saudi Arabia. Opportunities for deferred payment should be sought, or loans could be taken from the Asian Development Bank or other sources to settle fuel import bills,” they said.

The meeting also emphasized the need to encourage remittances during this period. Incentives may be offered to motivate expatriates to send money through formal channels.

Cutting the policy rate should not be considered at this time, given the current situation.

Among those present were Mustafizur Rahman, distinguished fellow of the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD); Fahmida Khatun, executive director of CPD; former chief economist of Bangladesh Bank Mustafa K Mujeri; Mohammad Abdur Razzaque, chairman of Research and Policy Integration for Development (RAPID); Selim Raihan, executive director of the South Asian Network on Economic Modeling (SANEM); Masrur Reaz, chairman of Policy Exchange Bangladesh; AK Enamul Haque, director general of the Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS); and Nazmus Sadat Khan, senior economist at the World Bank’s Dhaka office.

The Dhaka Stock Exchange fell for the third day in a row as cautious investors today offloaded shares in response to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a volatile global energy market.

The benchmark DSEX index plunged 82 points, or 1.54%, to settle at 5,241, bringing the total losses over the last three sessions to 293 points

Blue-chip stocks were not spared, with the DS30 index dropping 34 points, or 1.65%, to settle at 2,012, while the shariah-based DSES index slipped slightly by 14 points to close at 1,049.

Market breadth remained sharply negative, as 308 issues declined compared to only 52 advancing, with 33 stocks unchanged. Turnover fell 21.13% to Tk459 crore from Tk582 crore in the previous session, while the bourse's total market capitalisation shrank by Tk3,096 crore, settling at Tk6,97,952 crore in a single session.

Market insiders highlighted that the sell-off is closely linked to both international and domestic economic uncertainties. The ongoing Middle East conflict, particularly involving Iran, has driven up global crude oil and LNG prices, creating fears of energy supply disruptions for import-dependent economies like Bangladesh.

The international benchmark Brent crude oil surged from around $70 to $80-$84 per barrel, marking a 10-15% increase, while the Asian LNG benchmark Japan Korea Marker (JKM) jumped from $13-$14/MMBtu to $24-$25/MMBtu, an extraordinary 70-80% rise.

Insiders said these higher energy costs will directly affect Bangladesh by increasing fuel import bills, raising electricity generation costs, and potentially forcing the government to adjust tariffs or increase subsidies.

Against this backdrop of uncertainty, investors opted for caution, triggering broad-based selling. Analysts warned that continued geopolitical developments and fluctuations in global energy markets could prolong market volatility in the coming sessions.

Among the top gainers, International Leasing and Financial Services Limited led with a 10% rise, followed by FAS Finance & Investment Limited and Fareast Finance & Investment Limited, each up 9.09%. On the losing side, First Finance Limited suffered the biggest drop at 10%, followed by Prime Finance & Investment Limited, down 8%, and ICB Islamic Bank Limited, which fell 7.89%.

Trading activity remained concentrated in a few high-volume stocks, with Orion Infusion, City Bank, and Khan Brothers PP Woven Bag Industries emerging as the most actively traded shares, demonstrating significant participation by large investors despite overall market weakness.

All major large-cap sectors recorded losses, highlighting widespread selling pressure. Food & Allied was the worst performer, down 2.44%, followed by Banking at 2.36%, and Non-Bank Financial Institutions at 2.29%. Other sectors also declined: Engineering fell 1.36%, Fuel & Power down 1.20%, Pharmaceuticals dropped 0.99%, and Telecommunication slipped 0.23%. Block trades contributed 4.7% of total turnover, reflecting ongoing institutional participation.

The Chittagong Stock Exchange also ended lower, with the CASPI index falling 192 points to 14,825, while the CSCX index declined 115 points to 9,061, signalling negative sentiment across both major bourses.