Gold prices rose over 1 percent on ‌Wednesday, rebounding from a more than one-week low hit in the previous session, as a widening Middle East conflict sent global markets tumbling and supported safe-haven demand.

Spot gold gained 1.5 percent to $5,164.42 ​per ounce by 0701 GMT. US gold futures for April delivery ​added 1 percent to $5,174.30.

On Tuesday, bullion fell more than 4 percent to its lowest since February 20, weighed by a firmer dollar and dimming rate-cut prospects ​as inflation concerns were intensified by fears of a prolonged war.

Gold could shrug ​off the previous session’s selloff over the coming days as the metal has swayed to its own narrative and has been resilient despite whatever the dollar and yields have been ​doing since the beginning of last year, said Ilya Spivak, head of global ​macro at Tastylive.

Oil and gas prices surged as the US-Israeli war on Iran halted energy exports ‌from the Middle East, with Tehran attacking ships and energy facilities, closing navigation in the Gulf and forcing production stoppages from Qatar to Iraq.

“Higher oil prices as a result of escalating geopolitical tensions in Iran added to inflationary concerns and complicated ​the outlook for ​monetary easing,” said Christopher Wong, a strategist at OCBC.

“The underlying fundamentals (for gold) have not materially shifted. Structural drivers such as geopolitical uncertainty, policy ​unpredictability and portfolio diversification needs remain intact,” Wong added.

Investors ​expect the US Federal Reserve to hold rates at the end of its next two-day meeting on March 18, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

Oil prices rose 1% on Wednesday as the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran disrupted Middle East supplies, but the pace of gains slowed from ‌past sessions after President Donald Trump raised the possibility of the U.S. Navy escorting vessels through the Strait of Hormuz.

Brent rose $1.17, or 1.4%, to $82.57 a barrel by 0408 GMT, after closing at its highest since January 2025 on Tuesday.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 72 cents, or 1%, to $75.28, after settling at its highest since June. Both rose by around 5% or more in the past two sessions.

"Right now, geopolitics has clearly overtaken the usual price ⁠drivers like inventory data, U.S. economic numbers or OPEC commentary," Phillip Nova senior market analyst Priyanka Sachdeva said.

"In the near term, the key pointers to watch are physical export data from the Gulf, any confirmed tanker incidents, U.S. naval movement, and Iran's tone," she added.

Israeli and U.S. forces struck targets across Iran on Tuesday, prompting Iranian strikes against energy infrastructure in a region that accounts for just under a third of global oil production.

Iraq, the second-largest crude producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, has cut output by nearly 1.5 million barrels a day, about half its production, due to storage limits and the lack of an export route, officials told Reuters. They said the country may have to shut its nearly ‌3 ⁠million bpd of output within days if exports do not resume.

Iran has also targeted tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas flows. Traffic through the Strait remains effectively closed.

Trump has said that the U.S. Navy could begin escorting oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz if necessary, adding he had ordered the U.S. International Development Finance ⁠Corporation to provide political risk insurance and financial guarantees for maritime trade in the Gulf.

"The promise of such guarantees comes as insurers are cancelling war risk coverage for vessels moving through the Strait of Hormuz. This is welcome news, but clearly it won't happen overnight. ⁠Naval escorts would be helpful, but again, this effort will take time," ING analysts said in a note.

Countries and companies have begun seeking alternative routes and supplies. India and Indonesia said they were looking for other energy supplies, while some Chinese ⁠refineries were shutting or moving up maintenance plans.

In the United States, crude stocks rose by 5.6 million barrels last week, according to market sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures, well above the 2.3 million barrels analysts projected. Official figures from the U.S. government are expected later on Wednesday.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Wednesday that Donald Trump’s 15-percent global tariff is likely to be rolled out this week, as the president moves to rebuild his trade agenda after a major legal setback.

The Supreme Court last month struck down Trump’s country-specific tariffs, which he imposed on allies and competitors alike, delivering a stinging rebuke of his signature economic policy.

Since then, the US leader has tapped a different law to impose a new 10-percent duty, and vowed to raise this level to 15 percent.

Asked when the hike will be implemented, Bessent told CNBC: “That’s likely sometime this week.”

He added that this will be done under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 -- the same basis for Trump’s new 10-percent tariff -- which only allows for a duty lasting 150 days unless Congress extends it.

During this five-month window, the Trump administration will move to wrap up investigations linked to concerns over national security and unfair trade, Bessent said. These probe, in turn, could bring about new sets of tariffs.

“It’s my strong belief that the tariff rates will be back to their old rate within five months,” Bessent said.

“And those are very fulsome authorities,” he added, referring to the laws justifying these investigations.

“They have survived more than 4,000 legal challenges. They are more slow moving, but they are more robust,” Bessent said.

An extended conflict in the Middle East after the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran could trigger global stagflation -- a troublesome blend of high inflation and anaemic growth -- due to spiking oil and gas prices, economists warned.

WILL THERE BE AN OIL SHOCK?

The conflict has nearly halted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, through which around 20 percent of global seaborne oil passes, with several ships attacked.

Global oil prices shot higher on Monday, with the Brent crude international reference oil contract up nearly nine percent at $79.30 per barrel at 1410 GMT.

It briefly surpassed $80 per barrel earlier in the day, and was up considerably from the $61 per barrel at the start of the year.

Economist Sylvain Bersinger said the war risks “creating a third oil shock after those in 1973 and 1979 and the 2022 gas shock”.

Europe’s benchmark gas price shot more than 50 percent higher on Monday.

He said the price of oil could rise to $110 per barrel, but added that was no longer exceptional as oil prices had risen over $140 in 2008 and were above $100 in the 2010s.

Adam Hetts at asset manager Janus Henderson said that while oil prices would certainly rise, the increase should remain “at reasonable levels”.

WHAT IMPACT ON GLOBAL TRADE?

The conflict could act as a shock to trade “at the worst possible moment”, said economists at ING bank.

The global trading system is already under stress from US President Donald Trump’s tariff offensive as well as the fragmentation of supply chains since Covid and the war in Ukraine.

Moreover the closure of the Gulf airspace is disrupting aviation between European and Asia, they noted.

For Ruben Nizard, head of political risk research at Coface, a trade credit insurance company, this crisis could also “throw another wrench into the works by driving up maritime freight costs” and pushing up inflation.

“At the global level, this would open the door to an economic scenario of stagflation,” he added, referring to a situation with high inflation and weak or non-existent growth.

WHAT IMPACT ON THE GLOBAL ECONOMY?

According to economists at Natixis bank, a prolonged disruption of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz “would have major implications for markets, but also for inflation dynamics and overall economic stability”.

They added that “China would be particularly affected by this war.”

Cyrille Poirier-Coutansais, director of the research department at the French Navy’s Centre for Strategic Studies, agreed that China is particularly dependent upon oil shipped through the Strait of Hormuz.

“The question is whether there will be enough fuel to keep the world’s factory running,” he told AFP.

For the economist Sylvain Bersinger the impact on Europe will likely be less than the 2022 gas shock, which would help France in particular to avoid a recession.

In a sign of declining investor confidence, the interest rate on European sovereign bonds climbed on Monday.

The yield on 10-year German government bonds, the benchmark in the eurozone, stood at 2.70 percent in afternoon trading, compared with 2.64 percent on Friday.

WHAT RISKS IN A LONG WAR?

The intensity and duration of the conflict will be key in determining its impact.

“In a prolonged conflict, the combination of higher energy costs, disrupted logistics, and a generalised confidence shock would constitute a meaningful drag on global trade volumes at precisely the moment the world economy was still digesting the inflationary and growth consequences of the tariff shock,” said economists at ING bank.

Coface’s Nizard said they estimated that “an increase of roughly 15 dollars in the price of Brent over a prolonged period could shave about 0.2 percentage points off global growth and add almost half a point to inflation.”

These are “not insignificant” effects in a context of “fairly fragile global economic growth”, he added.

While it’s tempting to assume the dollar’s long-lost “safety” bid has returned since the weekend Iran attacks, it’s not as clear-cut as it seems and owes more to relative energy plays. Yet the implications of the market response may be just as powerful.

Ever since Donald Trump’s return to the White House last year, the dollar has waned even during periods of market anxiety and volatility, due in ​large part to US economic policy uncertainty and both domestic and geopolitical upheaval.

Reversing years of dollar over-valuation is a key tenet of the Trump administration’s economic plan. But the greenback’s diminished haven role in times of ‌global political or financial stress suggests foreign investors - already up to their eyeballs in US assets - have changed their behaviour.

So it was remarkable that the dollar jumped across the board after last weekend’s extraordinary bombing campaign by US and Israeli forces against Iranian targets, including the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the wave of regional violence that’s followed.

The crux of the move hinged more on the inevitable energy price dynamics rather than any dash for dollars per se. In fact, it was more a default move out of the currencies of economies ​worst hit by an outsized and protracted energy price squeeze.

DOLLARS BY DEFAULT

With the US now a net exporter of total petroleum and energy products in general, the initial 10 percent surge in world oil prices on Monday hurt other ​major currencies much more due to fears of a major demand hit if the supply hiatus persists for several weeks or even months.

That’s why other traditional havens such as Japan’s yen , caught no safety bid this time around and plunged over 1 percent against the dollar on Monday given Japan’s big energy import bill and the fact that about a third of its energy imports comes through the Strait ​of Hormuz.

China too is a big consumer of oil now stuck in those contentious waterways, particularly deeply discounted Iranian crude that’s sanctioned in the West and now also in limbo. The recently high-flying yuan turned tail on Monday and dropped 0.8 percent as the ​situation unfolded.

“This isn’t a friendly outcome for the Northern Asian currencies,” said Societe Generale currency strategist Kit Juckes, adding that the most important indication from Trump so far has been that the US action will take weeks, not days.

For Europe, the calculation is compounded by its exposure to natural gas after the shipping attacks effectively closed the Hormuz route, a conduit for 20 percent of worldwide liquefied natural gas shipments and up to 30 percent of crude oil.

Benchmark European gas prices surged by almost 50 percent at one point on Monday to their highest in more than ​a year, closing up 35 percent and prompting the European Union’s gas supply group to schedule an emergency meeting for Wednesday.

A line chart of the price of the European gas benchmark contract in euros per megawatt hours (MWh) since October 1, showing increasing volatility since January.

A line chart of the price of the European gas benchmark contract in euros per megawatt hours (MWh) since October 1, showing increasing volatility since January.

The US supplied 58 percent of the European Union’s LNG last year. Qatar, which accounted for 6 percent of the bloc’s imports, shut down its ​production plants on Monday after attacks from Iran.

The euro fell 1 percent against the dollar to its lowest in more than a month.

The Swiss franc’s long-standing and often unwelcome haven status remains in play - but it’s complicated by the Swiss National Bank’s battle against deflation ‌and its restated commitment to intervene to sell francs to cap the unit.

READY RECKONERS?

As to the overall economic hit from an oil spike worldwide, Barclays economists assume every sustained $10 per barrel rise in crude prices takes up to 0.2 percentage point off global growth. And if a wave of forecasts of $100-plus per barrel were to prove accurate, then that could well bite.

As it stands, however, Monday’s net Brent crude price rise of $5 to $77 per barrel will be a much more modest blow - and the moves so far would barely have any significant demand impacts on the US itself.

Calculations then turn to whether oil price pressure becomes an economic depressant or inflation aggravator. With US core inflation running above 3 percent, ​that could argue for more focus on the latter and ​for keeping US interest rates high through the year - another support for the dollar.

But, as so often with Middle East conflicts, the initial ready-reckoners on global economic hits all hinge on duration of conflict and the energy supply disruption.

Trump has indicated the military campaign will run for four or five weeks and, likely riffing off that, prediction markets such as Polymarket see a 63 percent chance Trump will ​call a halt by the end of this month.

And yet most of the thinking on currency reactions is not strictly calculations of dollar hoarding or cross-border dash ​for safety - rather they seem ⁠just like relative economic assessments emanating from energy exposure.

But for all that, it can have a powerful and looping effect.

Barclays’ rule of thumb for the dollar, for example, is that it gains between 0.5 percent and 1.0 percent for every $10 increase in oil.

If dollar‑denominated energy prices rise and stay high, pushing the exchange rate up with them, that would both worsen the energy shock for overseas economies and drive the dollar even higher in a self‑reinforcing loop.

No one would want that scenario - least of ⁠all Washington.

Oil prices surged on Monday (2 March) and shares slid as military conflict in the Middle East looked set to last weeks, sending investors flocking to the relative safety of the dollar and gold.

Brent jumped 4.5% to $76.07 a barrel, though it had briefly topped $82.00 at one stage, while US crude climbed 3.9% to $69.59 per barrel. Gold rose 1.0% to $5,327 an ounce.

Military strikes by the United States and Israel on Iran showed no sign of lessening, while Iran responded with missile barrages across the region, risking dragging its neighbours into the conflict.

President Donald Trump suggested to the Daily Mail the conflict could last for four more weeks, while posting that attacks would continue until US objectives were met.

All eyes were on the Strait of Hormuz, where around a fifth of the world's seaborne oil trade flows and 20% of its liquefied natural gas. While the vital waterway has not yet been blocked, marine tracking sites showed tankers piling up on either side of the strait wary of attack or maybe unable to get insurance for the voyage.

"The most immediate and tangible development affecting oil markets is the effective halt of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, preventing 15 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil from reaching markets," said Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy.

"Unless de-escalation signals emerge swiftly, we expect a significant upward repricing of oil."

A prolonged spike in oil prices would risk reigniting inflationary pressures globally, while also acting as a tax on business and consumers that could dampen demand.

OPEC+ did agree on a modest oil output boost of 206,000 barrels per day for April on Sunday, but a lot of that product still has to get out of the Middle East by tanker.

"The nearest historical analogue in our view is the Middle East oil embargo of the 1970s, which increased oil prices by 300% to around $12/bbl in 1974," said Alan Gelder, SVP of refining, chemicals and oil markets at Wood Mackenzie.

"That is only US$90/bbl in 2026 terms. Eclipsing this in today's market concerned about significant losses of supply seems very achievable."

That would be expensive for Japan, which imports all its oil, sending the Nikkei down 1.4%, with airlines among the hardest hit. Chinese blue-chips went their own way and held steady.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 1.2%.

And it's a big US data week

In the Middle East, the UAE and Kuwait temporarily closed their stock markets citing "exceptional circumstances".

For Europe, EUROSTOXX 50 futures shed 1.4% and DAX futures slid 1.3%. On Wall Street, S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures both lost 0.6%.

The oil shock rippled through currency markets with the dollar a main beneficiary. The US is a net energy exporter and Treasuries are still considered a liquid haven in times of stress, shoving the euro down 0.2% to $1.1788.

While the Japanese yen is often a safe harbour, the country imports all of its oil making the flows more two-way. The dollar added 0.1% to 156.25 yen, while gaining on the Australian dollar, which is often sold as a liquid proxy for global risk.

In bond markets, 10-year Treasury yields steadied at 3.970%, having briefly touched an 11-month low of 3.926%.

Bonds had gained a bid on Friday when UK mortgage lender MFS was placed into administration following allegations of financial irregularities. Its collapse stoked wider credit fears, with well-known big banks among its lenders. MFS had borrowed 2 billion pounds ($2.69 billion).

The news slugged banking stocks and combined with jitters over AI-related stocks to hit Wall Street more broadly.

Investors also have to weather a squall of US economic data this week, including the ISM survey of manufacturing, retail sales and the always vital payrolls report.

Any weakness could shake confidence in the economy after a disappointing fourth quarter, but would also likely narrow the odds on rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.

Markets currently imply a 50% chance of an easing in June and about 60 basis points of cuts this year.

Global oil and gas shipping rates soared, with supertanker costs in the Middle East hitting all-time highs, as the US-Iran conflict intensified after Tehran targeted ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, according to shipping data and industry sources on Tuesday.

Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz between Iran and Oman, which carries around one-fifth of oil consumed globally as well as large quantities of liquefied natural gas, has ground to a near halt after vessels in the area were hit as Iran retaliated to US and Israeli strikes.

The disruption and fears of prolonged closure have caused oil and European natural gas prices to jump, with Brent crude futures up nearly 10% this week as the conflict triggered multiple oil and gas shutdowns in the Middle East.

The benchmark freight rate for the very large crude carriers (VLCCs) used to ship 2 million barrels of oil from the Middle East to China, also known as TD3, rose to an all-time high of W419 on the Worldscale industry measure used to calculate freight rates, on Monday, or $423,736 per day, LSEG data showed.

The rate doubled from Friday, extending gains from a six-year high last week, after the US and Israel attacked Iran and killed its Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei on Saturday.

In retaliation, Iran has struck Gulf countries, prompting precautionary shutdowns at oil and gas facilities across the Middle East.

An Iranian Revolutionary Guards senior official said on Monday that the Strait of Hormuz is closed and Iran will fire on any ship trying to pass, Iranian media reported.

The US military's Central Command said the Strait is not closed despite the Iranian statements, Fox News reported.

LNG shipping rates jump

Still, daily freight rates for LNG tankers jumped more than 40% on Monday after Qatar halted its production.

Atlantic rates rose to $61,500 per day on Monday, up 43%, or $18,750, from Friday, according to Spark Commodities, a pricing assessment agency for LNG shipping. Pacific rates rose to $41,000 per day, up 45%, or $12,750, from Friday.

Fraser Carson, principal analyst for global LNG at energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie, said spot daily LNG shipping rates could rise above $100,000 this week on tight supply.

"Vessel availability for the rest of March is considered weak as cargo operators try to work through the backlog created by weather disruptions during February," he said.

"There will be very strong competition for any available vessels," he added.

Until safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz can be assured, shipping will remain idle, Carson said.

An oil shipbroker who declined to be named due to company policy said it is very difficult to assess shipping rates in the Gulf as several shipowners have suspended operations indefinitely.

South Korean shipping firm Hyundai Glovis said on Tuesday it is preparing contingency plans including securing alternative routes and ports in response to the Middle East conflict.

South Korea's maritime ministry has issued a notice to South Korean shippers with vessels sailing in the Middle East, asking them to refrain from business operations in the region, an official told Reuters on Tuesday.

The ministry is holding a meeting to discuss further safety measures following Iran's threat to attack any ship passing through the Strait of Hormuz, the official added.

Oil prices surged on Monday and shares slid as military conflict in the Middle East looked set to last weeks, sending investors flocking to the relative safety of the dollar and gold.

Brent LCOc1 jumped 4.5% to $76.07 a barrel, though it had briefly topped $82.00 at one stage, while U.S. crude CLc1 climbed 3.9% to $69.59 per barrel. Gold rose 1.0% to $5,327 an ounce XAU=. O/RGOL/

Military strikes by the United States and Israel on Iran showed no sign of lessening, while Iran responded with missile barrages across the region, risking dragging its neighbours into the conflict.

President Donald Trump suggested to the Daily Mail the conflict could last for four more weeks, while posting that attacks would continue until U.S. objectives were met.

All eyes were on the Strait of Hormuz where around a fifth of the world's seaborne oil trade flows and 20% of its liquefied natural gas. While the vital waterway has not yet been blocked, marine tracking sites showed tankers piling up on either side of the strait wary of attack or maybe unable to get insurance for the voyage.

"The most immediate and tangible development affecting oil markets is the effective halt of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, preventing 15 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil from reaching markets," said Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy.

"Unless de-escalation signals emerge swiftly, we expect a significant upward repricing of oil."

A prolonged spike in oil prices would risk reigniting inflationary pressures globally, while also acting as a tax on business and consumers that could dampen demand.

OPEC+ did agree a modest oil output boost of 206,000 barrels per day for April on Sunday, but a lot of that product still has to get out of the Middle East by tanker.

"The nearest historical analogue in our view is the Middle East oil embargo of the 1970s, which increased oil prices by 300% to around $12/bbl in 1974," said Alan Gelder, SVP of refining, chemicals and oil markets at Wood Mackenzie.

"That is only US$90/bbl in 2026 terms. Eclipsing this in today's market concerned about significant losses of supply seems very achievable."

That would be expensive for Japan, which imports all its oil, sending the Nikkei .N225 down 1.4%, with airlines among the hardest hit. Chinese blue-chips .CSI300 went their own way and held steady.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS fell 1.2%.

AND IT'S A BIG US DATA WEEK

In the Mid East, the UAE and Kuwait temporarily closed their stock markets citing "exceptional circumstances".

For Europe, EUROSTOXX 50 futures STXEc1 shed 1.4% and DAX futures FDXc1 slid 1.3%. On Wall Street, S&P 500 futures ESc1 and Nasdaq futures NQc1 both lost 0.6%.

The oil shock rippled through currency markets with the dollar a main beneficiary. The U.S. is a net energy exporter and Treasuries are still considered a liquid haven in times of stress, shoving the euro down 0.2% to $1.1788 EUR=EBS.

While the Japanese yen is often a safe harbour, the country imports all of its oil making the flows more two-way. The dollar added 0.1% to 156.25 yen JPY=EBS, while gaining on the Australian dollar AUD=D3, which is often sold as a liquid proxy for global risk.

In bond markets, 10-year Treasury yields steadied at 3.970%, having briefly touched an 11-month low of 3.926% US10YT=TWEB.

Bonds had gained a bid on Friday when UK mortgage lender MFS was placed into administration following allegations of financial irregularities. Its collapse stoked wider credit fears, with well-known big banks among its lenders. MFS had borrowed 2 billion pounds ($2.69 billion).

The news slugged banking stocks and combined with jitters over AI-related stocks to hit Wall Street more broadly. .N

Investors also have to weather a squall of U.S. economic data this week, including the ISM survey of manufacturing, retail sales and the always vital payrolls report.

Any weakness could shake confidence in the economy after a disappointing fourth quarter, but would also likely narrow the odds on rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.

Markets currently imply a 50% chance of an easing in June and about 60 basis points of cuts this year. 0#USDIRPR

European gas prices soared more than 20 percent Monday on fears that the Iran war will cut supplies in the Gulf region, notably exports from Qatar.

The Dutch TTF natural gas contract, considered the European benchmark, rocketed to 38.885 euros, having earlier gained more than 22 percent.

Despite the surge, the price was below the level it reached in January during the northern hemisphere winter.

As a fresh Middle East conflict risks sending oil prices sharply higher, Saudi Arabia, Russia and six other key members of the Opec+ alliance are widely expected to announce an output increase Sunday, analysts say.

The virtual meeting by the eight members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allied nations (Opec+) known as the "Voluntary Eight" (V8) comes a day after the US and Israel launched an ongoing wave of strikes on Iran.

Last year, the V8 group -- comprising Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman -- boosted production by around 2.9 million barrels per day (bpd) in total before announcing a three-month pause in output hikes.

But now the picture has changed dramatically.

Even before the conflict erupted on Saturday, the market had already priced in a growing geopolitical risk premium over months of US military build-up in the region.

Brent, the global benchmark for crude oil, jumped more than three percent on Friday to trade over $73 per barrel, up from $61 at the beginning of the year.

Several other developments have squeezed oil supply since early January, said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo.

They include "cold weather in the US across January (that) resulted in temporarily production shut-ins", "disruptions in Russia" linked to drone attacks, as well as in Kazakhstan, where "a power outage disrupted production from the Tengiz oil field", he added.

That's why, even before Saturday's strikes, the market was anticipating a quota increase of 137,000 barrels per day.

"These relatively high prices are a good incentive for Opec+ to resume its production increases" from April, Kpler analyst Homayoun Falakshahi told AFP.

Before the weekend, Falakshahi said a US strike on Iran would not necessarily alter the Opec+ decision, as the group might prefer to wait and assess the impact on flows before adding more oil to the market than previously planned.

Iran tensions

In the short term, the US attack will likely trigger "a massive surge in prices" with what follows depending on how far the conflict escalates, Falakshahi said.

The conflict could certainly severely disrupt global oil supplies and send barrel prices soaring to a level not seen in years.

Iran is a significant oil producer, but the principal risk remains a prolonged blockade of the Straits of Hormuz, through which around 20 million barrels of crude pass each day -- around 20 percent of global production.

And there are virtually no alternatives for crude transport.

Only Saudi Arabia and the UAE have pipeline networks, capable of carrying a maximum of 2.6 million barrels per day, that allow them to bypass the Straits of Hormuz, according to the US Energy Information Administration.

"That said, even if strikes remain limited, we think Brent crude oil prices might rise to about $80pb (around their peak during the 12-day war in June 2025), from $73pb yesterday", wrote William Jackson, chief emerging markets economist at Capital Economics.

But prices would rise much more if the conflict is a prolonged one, particularly if the Strait of Hormuz is blocked for an extended period.

"That could cause oil prices to jump, perhaps to around $100pb," said Jackson.

Limited impact

Even if Opec+ agrees on an output increase of 137,000 barrels per day on Sunday, the impact on oil prices will be limited, especially since the hike would only translate into an actual increase of 80,000 to 90,000 barrels, according to Kpler estimates.

"Spare capacity is much smaller than some perceive, and primarily in the hands of Saudi Arabia," Staunovo told AFP, adding that Russian production had been "on a declining trend over the last two months".

Boosting production would nevertheless allow Opec+ members to regain market share in the face of competition from other key players such as the United States, Canada, Brazil, and Guyana.

"Opec+ would prefer prices of $80-90, but around $70 per barrel is the ideal price level for this strategy" because it is "not enough to encourage further investment by US producers but acceptable for Opec+," Falakshahi said.

Brent crude jumped 10 percent to about $80 a barrel over the counter on Sunday, oil traders said, while analysts predicted that prices could climb as high as $100 after US and Israeli strikes on Iran plunged the Middle East into a new war.

“While the military attacks are themselves supportive for oil prices, the key factor here is the closing of the Strait of Hormuz,” said Ajay Parmar, director of energy and refining at ICIS.

Most tanker owners, oil majors and trading houses have suspended crude oil, fuel and liquefied natural gas shipments via the Strait of Hormuz, trade sources said, after Tehran warned ships against moving through the waterway. More than 20 percent of global oil is moved through the Strait of Hormuz.

“We expect prices to open (after the weekend) much closer to $100 a barrel and perhaps exceed that level if we see a prolonged outage of the Strait,” Parmar said.

Middle East leaders have warned Washington that a war on Iran could lead to oil prices jumping to more than $100 a barrel, said RBC analyst Helima Croft. Barclays analysts also said prices could hit $100.

The Opec+ group of oil producers agreed on Sunday to raise output by 206,000 barrels per day (bpd) from April, a modest increase representing less than 0.2 percent of global demand.

While some alternate infrastructure could be used to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, the net impact from its closure would be a loss of 8 million to 10 million bpd of crude oil supply even after diverting some flows through Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline and Abu Dhabi pipeline, said Rystad energy economist Jorge Leon.

Rystad expects prices to rise by $20 to about $92 a barrel when trade opens. The Iran crisis also prompted Asian governments and refiners to assess oil stockpiles and alternative shipping routes and supplies.

Gold rose to near a one-month high on Friday and was headed for a seventh straight month of gains, supported by geopolitical tensions after the United States and Iran extended nuclear talks, while softer US Treasury yields further boosted bullion.

Spot gold was up 0.8 percent at $5,230.56 an ounce by 01:38 p.m. ET (1838 GMT), hitting its highest level since January 30 earlier in the session. Prices have climbed 7.6 percent so far in February.

US gold futures for April delivery settled 1 percent higher at $5,247.90.

“There’s a lot of nervousness surrounding geopolitics, you have all the set-up for a high probability of a military operation over the weekend, so it’s a risk-off in a flight to safety,” said Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures.

The US and Iran made progress in Thursday’s nuclear talks, mediator Oman said, but hours of negotiations ended without a breakthrough that could avert possible US strikes amid a major military buildup.

Meanwhile, the US Embassy in Jerusalem also permitted non‑emergency staff and families to leave Israel citing safety risks.

US 10‑year Treasury yields slipped to a three-month low, making non-yielding gold more attractive by lowering its opportunity cost.

Gold’s next likely upside target is $5,450, with key support near $5,120, Streible said.

Data showed that US producer prices increased more than expected in January, suggesting inflation could pick up in the months ahead.

Markets are pricing in about a 42 percent chance of a 25‑basis‑point US Federal Reserve rate cut in June, as per the CME FedWatch tool.

Elsewhere, top consumer China’s net gold imports via Hong Kong in January rose by 68.7 percent from December, Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department data showed.

China’s central bank moved to curb the yuan’s rise by removing risk-reserve rules for forex forwards, encouraging more dollar buying.

ChatGPT developer OpenAI has secured $110 billion in fresh funding from a group of major technology firms led by Amazon, pushing the company's pre-money valuation to $730 billion.

OpenAI co-founder and CEO Sam Altman said yesterday (27 February) that Amazon has committed $50 billion to the round, while Nvidia and SoftBank will each invest $30 billion.

He added that more investors may join as the funding process continues.

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Amazon will initially invest $15 billion, with the remaining $35 billion to be released over the coming months under certain conditions.

Altman said the partnerships will help expand OpenAI's global reach, strengthen infrastructure and improve financial stability, enabling the company to bring advanced AI tools to more users and businesses worldwide.

He noted that ChatGPT now has over 900 million weekly active users and more than 50 million paying subscribers. According to Altman, AI is entering a new stage where cutting-edge research is rapidly turning into everyday tools used at a global scale.

As part of a multiyear deal, OpenAI and Amazon will introduce new AI capabilities for enterprises, with Amazon Web Services becoming the exclusive third-party cloud provider for OpenAI Frontier.

The two firms will also expand their existing agreement by $100 billion over eight years.

OpenAI said it is also deepening ties with Nvidia, while stressing that its long-standing partnership with Microsoft remains unchanged and central to its strategy.

Japan aims to help transform India's Northeast into a geopolitical gateway to Southeast Asia by strengthening connectivity to the Bay of Bengal and the Indian Ocean, Deputy Foreign Minister Horii Iwao said on Thursday.

Speaking in Shillong, Horii said Japan remains "firmly committed" to the region's development and views it as a "powerful engine of growth" when integrated into a broader economic grid spanning Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh and Southeast Asia, says the Hindu.

The initiative forms part of Japan's Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) policy, under which Tokyo is working to establish an "Industrial Value Chain" linking India's Northeast to maritime routes. Officials say the objective is to promote holistic regional development by improving connectivity and supply chains.

Under the administration of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, Japan is expanding cooperation with India beyond infrastructure projects to include private-sector collaboration in strategic sectors such as semiconductors, economic security and clean energy.

Horii also highlighted renewed efforts to strengthen people-to-people ties between Japan and the Northeast, including social and cultural exchanges.

The push follows recent high-level diplomatic engagements. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi met Takaichi, Japan's first female prime minister, at the Group of 20 summit in South Africa in November 2025.

In January 2026, India's External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar hosted Japanese Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi for talks aimed at deepening the bilateral partnership.

Gold prices edged up on Thursday as uncertainty over US tariff policy boosted the metal’s safe-haven appeal, while investors awaited further details on US-Iran talks later in the day.

Spot gold was up 0.4 percent at $5,190.01 per ounce, as of 0816 GMT. Bullion had hit a more-than-three-week high on Tuesday.

US gold futures for April delivery were down 0.4 percent at $5,206.80.

The US dollar eased, making dollar-denominated commodities more affordable for holders of other currencies.

“Iran-US persisting tensions and the uncertainty surrounding the global economy with (President Donald) Trump’s tariffs are a bullish catalyst,” said Carlo Alberto De Casa, external analyst at banking group Swissquote.

US envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner are due to meet an Iranian delegation for a third round of nuclear talks later in the day in Geneva.

Trump briefly laid out his case for a possible attack on Iran in his State of the Union speech on Tuesday, saying he would not allow a country he described as the world’s biggest sponsor of terrorism to have a nuclear weapon.

Non-yielding gold is seen as a safe store of value during times of geopolitical and economic uncertainty.

The US tariff rate for some countries will rise to 15 percent or higher from the newly imposed 10 percent, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said on Wednesday, without naming any specific trading partners or giving further details.

Gold prices scaled a record high of $5,594.82 on January 29 and were up 20 percent so far this year.

“The global gold rush does not seem to be over... Overall the sentiment remains positive with strong buys coming from Asia and from Central Banks,” De Casa said.

On the data front, investors await the weekly US jobless claims data, due later in the day.

Crude oil prices jumped Friday as worries about a possible US attack on Iran rose while Wall Street stocks slid amid anxiety over artificial intelligence and data showing an uptick in US inflation.

Crude prices jumped more than three percent at one point as optimism faded following Thursday talks between the two nations that were seen as a last-ditch bid to avert war.

"With the US having called on its citizens to leave Israel and Iran, the threat of an attack on the Islamic Republic has dramatically risen, pushing the oil price to a seven-month high," said analyst Axel Rudolph at investing and trading platform IG.

The benchmark international contract, Brent, briefly rose over $73 per barrel before finishing at $72.48, up 2.5 percent.

Wall Street's main stock indices fell, with tech stocks taking a hit.

Financial services firm Block's announcement that it would slash its workforce by nearly half and rely heavily on AI to operate more efficiently sparked fresh concerns about the disruptive nature of the technology.

Stock markets soared to fresh heights last year thanks to investors piling into stocks of tech firms which are piling massive amounts of money into developing and deploying AI.

But the march higher has not been steady in recent months as concern about artificial intelligence disrupting industries occasionally triggers sudden drops in markets.

Investors have also been occasionally seized by concerns that the share prices of tech giants have risen too high and that AI may not be profitable.

"AI, the trade that drove the market higher last year, is weighing on the market this year," said Adam Sarhan of 50 Park Investments. "There's a lot of disruption and fear spreading, because we don't know how AI will impact the market."

Sarhan also pointed to Friday's report on US producer prices as a driver of negative sentiment. The index rose a greater than expected 0.5 percent in January, adding to worries the Federal Reserve could refrain from additional interest rate cuts.

Financial stocks were under pressure on lingering fears about weakness in the private credit market. Two of Friday's biggest losers in the Dow were Goldman Sachs, down 7.5 percent, and JPMorgan Chase, down 1.9 percent.

But shares of Paramount Skydance surged more than 20 percent as it stood poised to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery after Netflix ended its pursuit of the media giant in a takeover battle.

Netflix, which will garner a $2.8 billion breakup fee after being outbid, rose 13.8 percent.

In Europe, the jump in oil and metals prices helped London's FTSE 100 stock index buck the trend, rising to a fresh record high as energy and resources stocks rose.

Frankfurt ended the day flat and Paris fell.

The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation (HSBC) Limited on Wednesday said that net income fell $1.8 billion to $21.1 billion in 2025 as the bank ploughed ahead with sweeping overhauls to streamline its structure and cut costs.

Profit attributable to shareholders last year stood at $21.1 billion, from $22.9 billion the year before, the lender said in a filing to the Hong Kong stock exchange.

Pre-tax profit fell $2.4 billion to $29.9 billion.

The World Trade Organization said Tuesday it would establish an expert panel to examine a Chinese complaint over Indian incentive schemes in the automotive and renewable energy sectors.

The WTO said in a statement that its Dispute Settlement Body (DSB) had agreed during a meeting to set up a panel to review China’s assertion that the Indian measures unfairly discriminate against foreign businesses and restrict trade, in violation of WTO rules.

The measures in question include incentives for the production of advanced chemistry cell batteries, automobile and auto components and electric vehicles.

China, which charged that the measures discriminated against the use of goods of Chinese origin, had back in October requested consultations with India to iron out the dispute. When that did not work, Beijing first asked the WTO last month to establish a panel of experts, but the request was blocked by India.

The DSB granted the second request on Tuesday.

Under WTO regulations, parties in a dispute can block a first request for an arbitration panel, but if the parties make a second request, it is all but guaranteed to go through.

India told Tuesday’s DSB meeting that it regretted that China had pushed forward with its panel request, insisting it had participated in the earlier consultations in good faith.

It said it remained confident its measures complied with WTO rules.

The United States, a third party in the case, also voiced disappointment that China had chosen to move forward with the panel request.

“China’s complaint is a regrettable attempt to distract from its own non-market policies and practices, to entrench reliance on China’s non-market excess capacity, and to undermine the broader interests of all WTO Members,” the US representative said.

Oil prices were hovering near seven-month highs on Wednesday as the threat of military conflict between the US and Iran that could disrupt supply continued to worry investors as talks between the parties are set for Thursday.

Brent futures were up 43 cents, or 0.6 percent, at $71.20 per barrel at 0400 GMT. WTI futures rose 38 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $66.01.

Gold prices rose on Wednesday, lifted by a softer dollar and heightened safe-haven demand amid uncertainty over US tariffs and rising friction between Washington and Tehran.

Spot gold rose 0.8 percent to $5,190.99 per ounce, as of 0841 GMT. US gold futures for April delivery were up 0.7 percent at $5,210.40.

The US dollar index shed 0.1 percent, making greenback-priced bullion cheaper for other currency holders.

“Spot gold is being supported above the $5,000 level by the softer US dollar, a muddied outlook on US trade policy, and persistent geopolitical tensions,” said Han Tan, chief market analyst at Bybit.

“As long as these fundamental drivers remain intact, bullion bulls will be eager for a return towards record highs.”

Gold, a traditional safe-haven, does well during times of geopolitical and economic uncertainty.

US President Donald Trump said in his State of the Union speech that “almost all” countries and corporations want to stick to tariff and investment agreements previously made with Washington.

The country began collecting a temporary 10 percent global import tariff on Tuesday, but Washington was working to raise it to 15 percent, a White House official said.

Meanwhile, US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are slated to meet with an Iranian delegation for a third round of nuclear talks on Thursday in Geneva.

Iran is close to a deal with China to purchase anti-ship cruise missiles, according to Reuters sources, which could target the US naval forces that have assembled near the Iranian coast.

Elsewhere, spot silver climbed 4.2 percent to $90.96 per ounce, a three-week high.

“The path ahead (for silver) will be shaped by a more complex mix of monetary policy, inflation expectations, and US dollar dynamics,” said Rania Gule, Senior Market Analyst at XS.com.

JP Morgan on Wednesday said demand from central banks and investors this year could push gold prices to $6,300 an ounce by end-2026. It also raised its long-term price forecast for gold to $4,500 per ounce.