Bangladesh Bank yesterday purchased $50 million from four commercial banks at a cut-off rate of Tk 122.75 per US dollar, as strong remittance earnings boosted inflows.

Remittance inflows reached an all-time high of $3.75 billion in March. Inflows stood at $1.60 billion between April 1 and April 14, up 25.2 percent year-on-year, Bangladesh Bank data shows.

The banking regulator on Wednesday resumed dollar purchases after one and a half months, buying $70 million from Islami Bank Bangladesh.

With the latest transaction, the central bank’s total dollar purchases for April rose to $120 million, officials said.

Cumulatively, the central bank has bought $5.61 billion from the market so far in the fiscal year 2025-26 (FY26).

Bangladesh Bank began purchasing dollars at the start of the current fiscal year as supply increased, supported by higher export earnings and remittance inflows.

However, between FY21 and FY25, Bangladesh Bank sold more than $25 billion from its foreign exchange reserves to meet import payments for fuel, fertiliser, and food.

Officials of the central bank said that the country’s forex market is currently quite liquid due to high remittance inflows ahead of Eid-ul-Adha.

On the other hand, demand for imports, except for fuel, is set to increase, which is why the Bangladesh Bank is purchasing US dollars from the market, an official added.

Following the recent dollar purchases, gross foreign exchange reserves rose to $35.03 billion on Thursday, up from $34.87 billion a day earlier.

Industry insiders said that the central bank is planning to increase its foreign exchange reserves, as pressure on the forex market is likely to rise in the upcoming days due to higher global oil prices stemming from the Middle East crisis.

On Thursday, the interbank exchange rate of the US dollar stood at Tk 122.70 per dollar, down from Tk 122.75 just two days earlier, reflecting a liquid foreign exchange market.

Gold prices extended gains on Friday, supported by a ‌weaker dollar and comments from Iran’s foreign minister that passage through the Strait of Hormuz remains open during the ceasefire, which pushed oil prices lower and eased some inflation concerns.

Spot gold was up 1.5 percent ​at $4,861.32 per ounce at 1:58 p.m. ET (1758 GMT), rising more than 2 percent so ​far this week.

US gold futures settled 1.5 percent higher at $4,879.60.

The passage of vessels through the strait will be on the coordinated route as already announced by the Ports and Maritime ​Organisation of Iran, Iran’s foreign minister said in a post on X. US President Donald ​Trump said talks could take place this weekend and he believed a deal to end the Iran war would come “soon”.

“Reopening the strait was a key event, and with oil prices under pressure, it is expected ​to ease inflation concerns and revive expectations of interest rate cuts - all good news ​for gold,” said Peter Grant, vice president and senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals.

Gold prices could see ‌short-term gains back above the $5,000 per ounce level, he added.

The US dollar and oil prices extended their fall after the comments on Hormuz opening. A weaker US currency makes bullion more attractive to holders of other currencies.

The core area of Beijing's Satellite Town, designed as a hub ​for satellite manufacturers and operators, ‌will be completed in the second half of 2026, state-owned media Beijing Daily reported on ​Saturday.

- Commercial launches now account ​for over 60% of all space launches ⁠and a number of companies are ​rushing to go public, Beijing Daily ​said.

- Gao Yibin, head of the Strategic Research Department at Future Aerospace, said with the acceleration ​of launch approvals, the localisation of ​components and the continued injection of capital by ‌industrial ⁠funds, China's trillion-yuan commercial space market is moving towards standardisation and scale

- "The accelerated implementation of scenarios such as low-Earth ​orbit constellation ​networking, satellite ⁠internet, space computing power, and 6G air-space-ground integration suggests sustained ​growth is expected in 2026," ​said ⁠Gao.

- The Beijing Satellite Town will provide the support to develop the aerospace ⁠industry ​by fostering industrial clustering ​and enabling talent, capital and technology to flow efficiently.

China's economy picked up speed early in 2026, riding an export surge before the Iran war sent energy costs soaring and put global demand - vital to Beijing's growth ambitions - at risk.

The 5.0% year-on-year pace in the first quarter sits at the top of China's full-year target range of 4.5%-5.0%, highlighting a resilience that sets it apart from much of Asia, helped by ample strategic oil reserves and a diversified energy mix.

Yet the Middle East conflict lays bare a core vulnerability: an export-led growth model that delivers annual trade surpluses the size of the Dutch economy depends on open sea lanes - for China and for the customers it sells to.

And as the world's biggest energy importer and manufacturing powerhouse, soaring oil prices threaten to drive up production costs and squeeze already thin margins at factories that employ hundreds of millions of people. The longer the conflict drags on, the higher the risks, and the pressure is already mounting.

Peng Xin, general manager of Guangdong Rongsu New Materials, which buys petrochemical feedstock from refineries and turns it into plastic pellets for injection-moulding factories, says prices for two types of nylon spiked roughly 40%-60%.

Peng is passing the increases on, while some of his customers rush to place orders and stockpile before costs climb further.

"The current coping method is to negotiate the price for every single order. If you accept my price, we cooperate. Otherwise, there's nothing we can do," he said.

"The entire industry chain is under pressure."

Imbalances expose China to global demand risks

The first-quarter GDP growth beat forecasts of 4.8% and October-December's three-year low of 4.5%, which a statistics bureau official described as a "rare and commendable" achievement, while warning of a "complex and volatile" external environment.

But the trade data for March earlier this week pointed to strains. Exports grew just 2.5% last month, slowing sharply from 21.8% in January–February.

And while factory-gate prices rose out of deflation in March for the first time in more than three years, analysts warn "bad inflation" driven by input costs could be even worse for growth.

"The solid start to the year on the back of strong export performance suggests the direct impact of the Middle East conflict remains contained for now," said Junyu Tan, North Asia economist at Coface.

"But the outlook is not all rosy despite China's relative resilience," Tan added. "The export engine could still be constrained by weaker global demand if the conflict persists."

And the economy remains imbalanced, with consumers unlikely to pick up the slack if exports falter.

Retail sales, a gauge of consumption, grew 1.7% last month, down from 2.8% in January-February, and - as has been the norm in recent years - underperformed industrial output, which rose 5.7% in March versus 6.3% in the first two months.

Lending data earlier this week also showed sluggish credit demand from households and businesses.

Breaking China's protracted property slump will be critical to reviving consumption, but fresh data showing new home prices still falling suggest further pain for the country's embattled developers.

"On one hand you see resilience - the Iran war's impact on China is very limited. On the other hand you see imbalance - a strong export sector versus modest domestic demand," said Tianchen Xu, senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit.

Beijing to ramp up stimulus if exports slow

Analysts do not expect the central bank to ease policy significantly, but say Beijing could deploy more fiscal firepower if the target comes under threat, adding to a debt burden more than three times the size of the economy.

Fiscal expenditure rose 3.6% in January–February, picking up from a 1% increase in 2025.

"The net exports' contribution to Chinese growth could turn negative in the second quarter," said Dan Wang, China director at Eurasia Group.

"If that happens, then the domestic infrastructure spending and fiscal spending will step up in order to bridge the gap."

There is one silver lining for China, however. Cut off from the West after invading Ukraine, Russia now supplies it with discounted oil and gas. Heavy use of coal, rapid expansion of renewables and a growing electric vehicle fleet further shield China from energy shocks.

As the Iran crisis jolts markets, Chinese manufacturers may emerge in better shape than rivals in Europe and elsewhere, where production costs rise even faster.

"In a cost-push inflation cycle, firms normally cannot fully pass on the cost increase to consumers, and this will hit their profit margin," said EIU's Xu.

"That said, Chinese manufacturers still enjoy lower production costs relative to peers in other countries. That will help to preserve, if not increase, their global market share."

The Gulf energy crisis isn’t over. Ever since the United States and Israel launched joint strikes on Iran, regional tumult has throttled worldwide oil and gas supplies. On Friday, Iranian Foreign ​Minister Abbas Araqchi declared the opening of the key Strait of Hormuz chokepoint, through which a fifth of global oil and ‌gas shipments typically transit daily — part of a 10-day ceasefire that now encompasses hostilities in Lebanon. The question is whether investors are right in their apparent sense that the acute phase of the impasse is giving way to a longer-term chronic period, or whether energy prices are going to snap back up again.

For now, the mood is ​one of relief. Brent futures plummeted below $90 a barrel on Friday morning, having neared $120 late last month. In Europe, where gas storage ​levels are near the lowest they’ve been since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, May futures priced off the Dutch TTF benchmark collapsed to under 39 euros per megawatt-hour, from a mid-March high above 60 euros per MWh.

The reaction is understandable. Morgan Stanley analysts envisioned ​prices rising to perhaps $150 per barrel if the situation escalated. Already, at the recent level of $110 a barrel, the bank predicted that Asian GDP growth ​would fall from 5 percent to 4.2 percent this year. The International Monetary Fund similarly cut its forecast for global economic activity. The initial policy response sought to stem the worst effects. Price caps in Asia helped hold domestic fuel-price rises to only 16 percent, adjusting for purchasing power, well below a 53 percent increase in oil prices in local currencies, Morgan ​Stanley reckons. Though presented in broader terms, the UK government has said it will eliminate a carbon tax on natural gas generation.

Any sense of ​normalization needs to be qualified. As Gulf oil and gas storage filled, producers with nowhere to shift their product have shuttered output. War-ravaged infrastructure must be rebuilt. Ships take ‌time to reach port, with full resumption of traffic maybe months away.

A return to that daily norm of 100-plus ships is also far from guaranteed. President Trump’s promise to continue blockading Iran remains. And Araqchi noted that tankers must still coordinate with Iranian authorities: whether this means the country will continue extracting tolls for safe passage is unclear. Fresh costs or risks of re-erupting conflict could lead to a perhaps $10 per barrel oil price premium, experts previously told ​Breakingviews.

If the crisis is in its ​chronic phase, there are other implications. Any deal between Iran and the US to curb Tehran’s nuclear enrichment may not last — after all, the one struck a decade ago by President Barack Obama didn’t. Other consequences abound: Japan is seeking to restart nuclear reactors; ​China raised its target for renewable energy. Consumers too, will respond, judging by reports of frenzied electric-vehicle buying.

Brent prices ​are still meaningfully higher than their pre-conflict low-$70s a barrel in late February. Even still, they could prove to be too low. In a post on social media network X, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on April 17 that “passage for all commercial vessels” through the Strait of Hormuz is “declared completely open for the ​remaining period” of a ceasefire that has now extended to Lebanon.

In a subsequent post ​on Truth Social, US President Donald Trump also said that the Strait is “completely open,” but added that a “naval blockade” will remain in place “as it pertains to Iran,” until “our transaction” is complete. ​US and Iranian negotiators are working towards a peace plan, Axios reported.

Bangladesh’s garment sector is going through a period of sustained pressure as the war in the Middle East disrupts production and international retailers scale back orders.

Western retailers are expected to cut apparel orders by up to 10 percent next season, as higher clothing prices dampen demand and unsold stock piles up in stores.

The latest setback is another blow for local manufacturers, who are already dealing with frequent load shedding, rising transport costs and a deepening fuel crunch following the US-Israel war on Iran.

Exporters say the war has already driven up raw material import bills and freight charges for shipments abroad.

The readymade garment sector, which accounts for more than 80 percent of national export earnings, had only just begun to steady itself after reciprocal tariff turbulence.

But now, conditions are combining to create a perfect storm for the readymade garment sector. Many fear the combined effect could lead to a decline in future orders.

Preferring anonymity, a senior official of a leading European buyer said that overall, 8 percent to 10 percent of garment work orders will be cut for the next season as buyers begin placing orders.

He said retailers and brands across the West are still burdened with unsold winter merchandise, while goods for the current season have already arrived. As a result, orders for the next cycle have slowed.

Amid the fuel crisis, the official said freight costs inside Bangladesh have also climbed. The fare of goods-laden trucks plying between Dhaka and Chattogram has risen, despite no official increase in petroleum prices.

Truck operators, citing fuel rationing, have raised per-truck charges to Tk 50,000 from Tk 38,000. On average, he said fares have increased by around 20 percent since the outbreak of the war.

Moreover, factories that depend on diesel generators are facing mounting disruption. Many report delays in getting adequate supplies, while cotton prices have risen, pushing yarn costs up by 17 percent to 18 percent.

“But buyers are reluctant to absorb higher prices,” said the official. “The consumers will not pay higher prices during the bad times because of an increase in the cost of production. So, at the end of the year, the overall export growth in the garment sector may be much lower than last year.”

Another European buyer, also requesting anonymity, said that the war has slowed down the business and the recovery is still very uncertain.

He added that demand for outerwear in Europe could rise next season as higher energy prices prompt consumers to buy warmer clothing. However, inventories are still elevated.

Ramzul Seraj, managing director of Elite Garments Ltd, which exports to the United States, said demand for garment items in the US has weakened, while factory output in Bangladesh has been hit by diesel shortages.

Delays in production could force some exporters to use more expensive air shipments to meet delivery deadlines, he added.

Masud Kabir, managing director of Motex Fashion, a Gazipur-based sweater factory, said he receives diesel using a special card introduced by the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA). But the supply falls short of covering nearly eight hours of load-shedding.

He can run the factory with the diesel collected from a nearby petrol pump for three and a half hours, he said. As a result, production has suffered.

Anwar Ul Alam Chowdhury, chairman of Evince Group, said the government is supplying diesel, but factories require larger volumes to operate generators smoothly.

Md Fazlul Hoque, managing director of Plummy Fashions, said inadequate diesel supplies have also disrupted his operations. At the same time, freight charges for sea shipments have increased, along with prices of cotton, yarn and polyester.

The combined effect, Hoque said, is a likely decline in future orders.

Mohammad Hatem, president of the Bangladesh Knitwear Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BKMEA), said some competing countries such as Turkey are expanding exports despite the war, helped by their proximity to Europe and the United States and more reliable energy supplies.

He also expressed concern that recurring two-to-three-hour power cuts could lead to greater reliance on costly air freight.

BGMEA Director Faisal Samad said the association is in contact with buyers, urging them to take into account the exceptional circumstances created by the global oil crisis. Since April 13, member factories have been able to access diesel on a priority basis through a special card facility.

“Even so, overall productivity has declined because of insufficient fuel supplies,” he said.

BGMEA President Mahmud Hasan Khan said buyers also want factories to keep running as this is a global crisis.

The DSE Brokers Association of Bangladesh (DBA) has teamed up with the Japan Securities Dealers Association (JSDA) to foster sustainable development, enhance efficiency, and strengthen international cooperation in Bangladesh’s capital market.

Takashi Hibino, chairman and CEO of JSDA, and Saiful Islam, president of DBA, signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) on April 9, according to a press release issued by the DBA today.

Under the agreement, the two organisations will collaborate in several key areas to support the development of the securities market, including the exchange of laws and regulations related to financial investment businesses and capital markets.

They will also work on developing governance frameworks, policy-making processes, and operational practices of self-regulatory organisations; strengthening supervision and compliance mechanisms; enhancing efficient financial transaction systems; fostering innovation in investment instruments and services; and expanding investor education programmes.

Additionally, both organisations will extend cooperation and consultation on other areas of mutual interest as needed.

Commenting on the agreement, the DBA president said the deal represents a significant advancement for Bangladesh’s capital market.

Partnering with a well-established and experienced self-regulatory organisation like JSDA will play a crucial role in strengthening market structure, governance, and institutional capacity, he said.

“We believe this collaboration will facilitate the exchange of global best practices and contribute to making our capital market more modern, transparent, and investor-friendly.”

Islam expressed optimism that the MoU would help build a more organised, dynamic, and internationally aligned capital market in Bangladesh, benefiting all market participants.

The heads of Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs) yesterday underscored the importance of close cooperation to support stability and safeguard development progress amid heightened global uncertainty and mounting pressures on member economies.

Meeting on the sidelines of the World Bank Group–International Monetary Fund Spring Meetings, the heads noted that the impacts of current global developments, including the evolving situation in the Middle East, are being felt through higher energy costs, supply chain disruptions, and tighter financial conditions.

“MDBs are working more closely than ever to support our members and clients through a complex and evolving global environment,” said Masato Kanda, president of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and current chair of the MDB Heads Group, according to a press release.

The MDB Heads Group includes the African Development Bank, ADB, AIIB, European Investment Bank, and the World Bank Group, among others.

The institutions will combine financial strength and partnerships to help countries manage immediate pressures and build long-term resilience, he added.

Reaffirming a shared commitment to deep collaboration, the group focused on private sector development, job creation, and infrastructure.

To facilitate this, the heads agreed to establish a working group to mobilise private finance and expand financing capacity through originate-to-distribute approaches.

The leaders also recognised the importance of increasing credit risk transparency in emerging markets through the Global Emerging Markets (GEMs) consortium.

They pledged to scale up local currency financing and develop domestic financial markets to mitigate exchange rate risks.

For sector-specific resilience, the MDBs are strengthening collaboration on critical minerals to support responsible supply chains. They also launched Water Forward, a global initiative to advance investable water systems to drive food security and prosperity.

The heads agreed on a common Value for Money procurement framework to ensure the sustainability of financed projects.

IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva warned Wednesday of difficult times ahead for the global economy if war in the Middle East is unresolved and oil prices stay high, adding that inflation risks could seep into food prices.

“We must brace for tough times ahead” if the conflict persists, she told reporters at a press briefing during the International Monetary Fund and World Bank’s spring meetings in Washington.

The gathering brings government and financial leaders to the US capital this week, with policymakers looking to limit economic fallout from the war.

US-Israeli strikes launched against Iran on February 28 sparked Tehran’s retaliation, virtually closing the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route for oil and fertilizers.

Energy prices have since surged, squeezing countries -- especially vulnerable economies and those dependent on oil imports from the region.

“We are concerned about risks for inflation moving into food prices should the delivery of fertilizers at a reasonable price (not be) restarted soon,” Georgieva said.

But as countries move to limit price shocks on their citizens, Georgieva urged central banks to “wait and see” before adjusting interest rates if they can do so.

She said this was particularly the case where the public has a “well-anchored” expectation of inflation being kept under control.

“If we are to move faster out of the war, it may not be necessary to take action,” she said.

But she conceded that countries where central banks lack such credibility might need to send stronger signals.

For now, “we are still at a time when a faster resolution of hostilities is possible,” she said.

Noting that fallout is “highly asymmetric,” Georgieva urged IMF member countries to come forward to the Washington-based lender if they need financial assistance during the conflict.

Low-income countries spend around 36 percent of their consumption on food, while emerging markets spend about 20 percent, said the IMF’s director of strategy Christian Mumssen in press remarks.

Advanced economies spend about nine percent, he added.

The IMF estimates for now that near-term demand for new fund financing would be in the range of $20 billion to $50 billion.

“Currently, we have 39 programs, and prospective demand for new programs from at least a dozen countries, a number of them in sub-Saharan Africa,” Georgieva said of the fund’s financial aid.

“The sooner we act, the more we would protect the economy and the people,” she added.

She stressed the need to protect fiscal sustainability as countries move to help their populations, cautioning that “untargeted measures, export controls or broad-based tax cuts” could serve to “prolong the pain of high prices.”

Ongoing tensions in the Middle East and uncertainty over domestic fuel supply continued to erode investor confidence, keeping the Dhaka stock market on a downward trajectory throughout the week.

Although trading opened on a mildly positive note, the momentum quickly faded as selling pressure intensified. Within a few sessions, major indices slipped, reflecting growing caution among investors.

Midweek, bargain hunters briefly returned to the market, taking advantage of lower prices and triggering a short-lived recovery. However, the rebound failed to sustain due to the absence of strong positive triggers or policy support. By the week's end, selling pressure resumed, leaving the market firmly in bearish territory.

The benchmark DSEX index edged down by 0.86 points to close at 5,257. The blue-chip DS30 fell 12 points to 1,990, while the Shariah-based DSES rose slightly by 3 points to 1,066. The SME index (DSMEX) dropped sharply by 31 points to 1,054.

Despite weak sentiment, trading activity increased. Average daily turnover rose 22.2% to Tk818 crore, up from Tk670 crore in the previous week. Total weekly turnover stood at Tk3,273 crore across four sessions, slightly lower than Tk3,348 crore a week earlier.

Market capitalisation declined by 0.44% to Tk6,85,632 crore. Of the 411 issues traded, 213 advanced, 142 declined, 35 remained unchanged, and 22 saw no trading activity.

Market analysts said global instability and fears of a potential energy crisis are key factors influencing investor behaviour. Government remarks on stock market restructuring have also prompted many investors to stay on the sidelines, putting the market in a wait-and-see mode.

In its weekly review, the market showed a flat-to-negative trend with volatile movements, reflecting a lack of clear direction. Early in the week, some buying interest emerged in December-closing stocks on expectations of favourable earnings. However, worries over ceasefire negotiations in the Middle East triggered renewed selling pressure.

Subsequent sessions saw intermittent bargain hunting, but gains were limited by cautious selling in large-cap stocks ahead of corporate earnings announcements.

Sector-wise, engineering stocks led turnover with 17.2%, followed by pharmaceuticals (11.6%) and general insurance (10.3%). Performance remained mixed, with ceramic, IT, and general insurance sectors posting gains, while banking, jute, and service sectors declined.

The Chittagong Stock Exchange also ended lower, with the CASPI index falling 0.08% to 14,762 and the CSCX index closing at 9,040.

Analysts remain cautious about near-term market stability unless fuel supply conditions improve, global tensions ease, and clearer policy direction emerges.

Despite a broader market downturn amid the Middle East conflict, several fundamentally weak and loss-making stocks – mostly from the non-bank financial institution (NBFI) sector – emerged as the top gainers on the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) in March.

According to monthly DSE data, five of the top 10 gainers were NBFIs, led by International Leasing and Financial Services, which surged 100% to close at Tk3.20 per share. Premier Leasing and Finance rose 83.33% to Tk3.30, while People's Leasing and Financial Services and Fareast Finance each gained 76.47% to Tk3. FAS Finance and Investment also saw a 70.59% increase to Tk3.90.

The remaining gainers included textile firms Hamid Fabrics and Familytex (BD), IFIC Bank First Mutual Fund, engineering firm Atlas Bangladesh, and Pacific Denims, reflecting a mix of low-cap and speculative stocks.

In total, 390 stocks were traded during the month, of which 173 advanced, 183 declined, and 34 remained unchanged, indicating a generally weak market trend.

Sector-wise, manufacturing stocks – including pharmaceuticals, textiles, engineering, cement, and food – accounted for the largest share of turnover at 46.86%, or Tk4,785 crore out of Tk10,211 crore. The financial sector, comprising banks, NBFIs, and insurance, contributed 29.97%, while the services and miscellaneous sector made up 23.09%.

Market insiders say the sharp rise in these stocks follows a prolonged slump, with many NBFIs previously hitting rock-bottom prices amid restructuring and liquidation concerns. Such rallies are often driven by speculative trading rather than strong fundamentals.

A similar trend was observed in February, when several struggling NBFIs posted sharp price increases after steep declines, highlighting continued volatility in the segment

The government has increased retail fuel prices at the consumer level, citing rising global oil market trends.

According to a gazette notification issued by the Power, Energy and Mineral Resources Division tonight (18 April), new prices will take effect from 12am Sunday (19 April).

Under the revised structure, diesel will cost Tk115 per litre, octane Tk140, petrol Tk135 and kerosene Tk130.

The latest adjustment represents a sharp increase across all major fuel categories. Diesel has been raised by Tk15 per litre, octane by Tk20, petrol by Tk19 and kerosene by Tk18.

The notification stated that the move was necessary to maintain stability in supply and ensure adjustment with global price trends.

Earlier, on 24 March, the BERC increased jet fuel prices by around 80% for domestic routes and nearly 79% for international routes in a single adjustment.

Officials said the latest revision was intended to align domestic prices with the international market, where oil prices have surged since the beginning of the Iran war on 28 February.

The government had previously resisted increasing fuel prices despite a steep rise in import costs, fearing that a higher diesel price would trigger transport fare increases, raise commodity prices and add to inflation.

However, officials said the growing cost of subsidies eventually left the government with little choice but to increase retail rates.

Bangladesh's oil import costs have increased significantly since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted supplies and forced the country to buy fuel from non-traditional sources and the spot market.

The government had kept fuel prices unchanged for April, saying it wanted to protect consumers from further hardship.

Following the start of the Iran war, crude oil prices climbed to as high as around $116 a barrel from about $70-75 before the conflict.

The increase in global fuel prices forced the state-run Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation to spend an additional Tk1,200 crore to import 10 oil consignments in March.

Long queues have persisted at filling stations in recent weeks because of fuel shortages. Officials said panic buying and hoarding were major reasons behind the shortage.

The decision to keep prices unchanged earlier was also partly aimed at discouraging hoarding by reducing the incentive to store fuel in anticipation of a future price rise.

However, as subsidy costs mounted, the government decided to pass part of the burden on to consumers.

Meanwhile, in a Facebook post, Jamaat-e-Islami Ameer Shafiqur Rahman criticised the hike, saying global prices are falling while Bangladesh has increased fuel rates.

He described the move as "deeply unfortunate" and said it would further burden people already struggling with rising living costs.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is holding continuous discussions with Bangladesh over the release of the remaining tranche of its ongoing loan programme, Krishna Srinivasan, director of the IMF's Asia and Pacific Department, has said.

"The [IMF] team is negotiating and is having continuous discussions with the [Bangladesh] authorities, and we will have an update down the road," he said at a press briefing in Washington, DC, on 16 April, replying to a queries including that over Bangladesh's due loan instalment.

Srinivasan said Bangladesh's revenue base remains weak by global standards, limiting the government's capacity to provide support at a time of rising economic pressure.

"People are hurting in Bangladesh, so it is even more important to use whatever resources you have to make it as targeted as possible," he said.

He added that improving revenue collection and addressing structural issues in the financial sector are critical for sustaining growth in both the short and long term.

Srinivasan also highlighted the impact of the global energy shock, noting that Bangladesh, as a major energy importer, remains vulnerable to price volatility in international markets.

"Like other countries in Asia, Bangladesh is also affected by the energy shock," he said. "We are working with the authorities in terms of policy support and programmes, and discussions are ongoing. We will have to wait and see how things pan out."

He said continued engagement between the IMF and Bangladesh will determine the outcome of the negotiations, as the country also explores options for additional external financing.

Under the $5.5 billion IMF programme, disbursements are typically made in June and December. However, the lender withheld the fifth tranche in December to engage with the newly elected government. At the time, then finance adviser Salehuddin Ahmed said $1.3 billion from two tranches could be released together in June.

Srinivasan visited Bangladesh in March and met Prime Minister Tarique Rahman and Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury. After the meetings, the finance minister said the combined tranches were likely in June and that detailed talks would follow at the IMF Spring Meetings in April.

However, no decision has been made even after the meetings, according to a statement issued by the Bangladesh Press Wing. The finance minister also said several issues remain unresolved, with further discussions expected over the next 15 to 20 days.

The Bangladesh Bank has discouraged commercial banks from engaging in forward dollar bookings to prevent artificial supply shortages in the spot market that could drive up the greenback's price.

Speaking to The Business Standard, senior officials at the central bank said several banks sharply increased forward bookings after conflict escalated in the Middle East, prompting fears that the dollar could become more expensive in the coming months.

Forward foreign currency selling is a transaction in which a bank or another party commits to selling a specified amount of foreign currency at a pre-determined exchange rate on a future date. The mechanism is commonly used by businesses and financial institutions to hedge against exchange rate fluctuations.

Under existing Bangladesh Bank guidelines, authorised dealer banks may undertake forward sales only against the genuine needs of customers and must ensure that the contracts are intended to neutralise exchange rate risk.

Banks may buy forward from exporters, foreign currency account holders, exchange houses, and other counterparties, but are required to cover their own risk as soon as possible.

The forward price is determined by adding a premium to the current price.

According to central bank officials, banks have been verbally advised not to rely on dollars purchased from the spot market to meet forward contracts. Instead, they have been encouraged to undertake forward sales only against their own forward purchases.

A senior Bangladesh Bank official said that a small number of banks had been increasing forward bookings aggressively.

"After the matter came to the attention of the Bangladesh Bank, the banks were told to avoid further forward booking because rising forward sales create pressure in the spot market, increasing the risk of a higher dollar rate," the official said.

"When banks cannot obtain enough dollars in the spot market to meet demand, the exchange rate rises. If banks continue to make excessive forward commitments, the dollar could become more expensive again," he explained.

The official said banks that had previously contributed to instability in the foreign exchange market by purchasing large amounts of dollars in May 2022 were among those increasing forward bookings this month.

"However, the Bangladesh Bank has been able to bring the situation under control before it became more serious," the official added.

Demand for forward bookings rises

Industry insiders said demand for forward bookings rose sharply from the middle of March and remained strong until the first week of April. Although demand eased somewhat by mid-April, businesses remain interested in locking in exchange rates because of uncertainty surrounding the Middle East conflict.

Bankers said demand could rise further if the conflict continues, if there are renewed expectations of a higher dollar rate, or if disruption occurs in the Strait of Hormuz.

A senior executive at a private commercial bank said the Bangladesh Bank had instructed lenders not to use dollars bought in the spot market for forward selling.

"We have been told that forward selling should be backed only by forward buying. But that is not possible for many banks because most do not have sufficient forward purchases in stock," he said.

"At the same time, businesses are seeking more forward bookings than before."

Several leading business groups have faced difficulties securing forward contracts since the central bank began discouraging the practice.

A senior executive at one of the country's largest conglomerates said the company had approached several private banks over the past week to arrange forward contracts, but the banks refused in line with the central bank's instruction.

According to the managing directors of some banks. The central bank had recently contacted them to seek details of how their institutions had calculated forward contracts after demand increased following the outbreak of war.

Despite the rise in forward demand, bankers said the supply of dollars in the market remains relatively comfortable and the exchange rate has begun to ease after a brief rise.

According to bankers, the dollar rate started falling after the Bangladesh Bank purchased dollars from commercial banks through auctions for two consecutive days at Tk122.75.

A senior official at a leading private company said his firm settled an import letter of credit at Tk122.98 per dollar last Wednesday, compared with Tk123.10 on Tuesday.

Cenbank move questioned

Zahid Hussain, former lead economist at the World Bank's Dhaka office, questioned the central bank's argument that forward booking itself would increase the dollar rate.

"The pressure on the dollar is coming from international markets. The increase in the taka-dollar exchange rate in Bangladesh has broadly matched the rise in the international dollar index," he said.

He also said there was a contradiction between Bangladesh Bank's commitment to a market-based exchange rate and its intervention in the market whenever the exchange rate fluctuates.

"If banks are forced to undertake forward selling only against forward buying, or if forward booking is discouraged altogether, that is itself a form of intervention that prevents the market from functioning naturally," he said.

Arfan Ali, former managing director of Bank Asia, said forward booking should be viewed as a legitimate risk management tool.

He said the volume of foreign exchange transactions in Bangladesh remains relatively low compared with many other countries, and most businesses have not traditionally engaged in hedging.

"Businesses may not previously have felt much need for forward booking. But the war has changed the situation, so demand has increased as companies seek to reduce their risk," he said. "This market should be allowed to become more viable."

Bangladesh's gross foreign-exchange reserves surpassed US$35-billion mark on Thursday, driven by stronger remittance inflows and lower import-payment obligations, amid the ongoing geopolitical tensions.

The country's gross forex reserves rose to $35.04 billion on the day, $33.87 billion up from the previous day, according to the central bank's traditional calculation method.

Under the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) Balance of Payments International Investment Poisson Manual-six edition, generally known as BMP6, the forex reserves stood at $30.37 billion during the period under review from $30.20 billion.

"Hefty growth in inward remittances has helped boost the overall foreign exchange inflows rather than outflows, despite the Middle East conflict," a senior official of the Bangladesh Bank (BB) told The Financial Express (FE).

The amount of inward remittances grew by more than 21 per cent to $1.79 billion during the first 15 days of this month (April), up from $1.47 billion in the corresponding period of last year.Bangladesh economy analysis

According to the central banker, the country's overall import payment obligations remain relatively low, at around $6.0 billion per month, despite the volatile oil prices.

On the other hand, the central bank intervened in the forex market again on Thursday by purchasing $50 million through auction from four banks in the interbank spot market in a bid to keep the exchange rate of the US dollar against the local currency stable.

The amount was bought under the Multiple Price Auction method and the cutoff rate was Tk 122.75 per dollar, according to the central bank officials.

A day earlier, the central bank resumed dollar purchases after a six-week pause, signalling renewed intervention in the market to help stabilise the exchange rate of the US dollar with the local currency, amid a surge in remittance inflows.

The central bank purchased $70 million worth of dollars on Wednesday from a Shariah-based bank in a similar auction.

The ongoing intervention is also contributing to a gradual strengthening of the country's foreign exchange reserves, according to the officials. "We're buying US dollars from banks directly to absorb the higher inflow of remittances," another BB official said, adding that such intervention had helped keep the exchange rate, thus encouraging both exporters and remitters.

The central bank of Bangladesh has so far bought $5.61 billion from banks directly since July 13 last under the prevailing free-floating exchange rate arrangement, the central bank's latest data showed.

Uber has committed more than $10 billion to buying thousands of autonomous vehicles and taking stakes in their developers, breaking from its asset-light "gig economy" business model to avoid disruption from robotaxis, the Financial Times reported on Wednesday.

Reuters could not immediately verify the report. Uber did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment.

Uber is positioning itself as a marketplace for multiple robotaxi operators, and has partnered across much of the autonomous vehicle industry, including with Baidu, Rivian and Lucid, and has outlined plans to launch robotaxi services in at least 28 cities by 2028.

These deals put Uber on track to invest more than $2.5 billion in equity stakes and spend over $7.5 billion on robotaxi fleets in the next few years, FT reported, citing its calculations based on analyst estimates and people familiar with Uber's deals. The agreements are contingent on its partners hitting certain deployment milestones.

Interest in driverless taxis has surged in recent months after years of missed promises, with artificial intelligence and tech partnerships offering hopes of solving complex traffic scenarios faster and mitigating high costs.

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, after holding a video conference with leaders from Southeast Asia, told reporters that the assistance, dubbed "Power Asia," is aimed at providing loans needed to secure crude oil, petroleum products, and to maintain the supply chain in an emergency response to help hard-hit nations.

The fund also aims to expand an oil reserve system within Asia, diversify energy, and promote energy conservation and industrial advancement, Takaichi said.

Japan, which imports petroleum-related products such as medical supplies from Southeast Asia, is increasingly worried that the region's oil supply shortages would affect the Japanese economy.

The fund is one year's worth of oil imports for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations member countries, or about 1.2 billion barrels, Takaichi said. The assistance is not meant to just provide oil, but for Asian nations to support each other.

The government has begun drafting a five-year strategic framework that targets economic growth of 6.2% in the 2026-27 fiscal year, up from a projected 5% in FY26, as it seeks to stabilise the economy and shift towards investment-led growth.

The proposed framework, presented at the first meeting of an advisory committee chaired by former planning adviser Wahiduddin Mahmud, sets out a gradual rise in growth over the following years, with targets of 7.1% in FY28, 7.5% in FY29 and 8% in FY30.

The plan also aims to increase total investment to 36.7% of gross domestic product by FY30, while reducing inflation to 5% by the period.

A projection presented at the first meeting of an advisory committee chaired by former planning adviser Wahiduddin Mahmud forecast a gradual depreciation of the taka against the US dollar over the current fiscal year and the following four years.

According to the General Economics Division, the exchange rate could rise to Tk126.3 per dollar in the current 2025-26 fiscal year, followed by Tk131 in FY27, Tk134.9 in FY28, Tk138 in FY29 and Tk140 in FY30.

The government plans to introduce a 180-day action plan covering exchange rate rationalisation, stabilisation of energy supply and fast-track reforms to business licensing.

A one-year programme will include restructuring of the financial sector, creation of an integrated social protection platform and expansion of financing for small and medium-sized enterprises.

Over the five-year period, the government intends to pursue industrial diversification, universal social protection and regional economic transformation.

Speaking yesterday (15 April), Prime Minister's Adviser on Finance and Planning Rashed Al Mahmud Titumir said the initial measures under the plan would be implemented up to FY30 and would focus on economic recovery and stability.

"The rehabilitation process is also expected to be completed within the next year," he said.

Documents presented at the meeting showed that the framework seeks to raise capital productivity, create nearly one crore jobs across different sectors and increase revenue collection to 10% of GDP.

The first five-year plan of the BNP government will include proposals to develop Chattogram as the country's commercial capital, establish a pension fund for the private sector, introduce unemployment benefits and provide interest-free loans to small enterprises and cottage industries.

The plan also proposes waiving agricultural loans of up to Tk10,000 taken from non-governmental organisations.

The government has set a longer-term target of building a $1 trillion economy by 2034 and increasing foreign investment to 2.5% of GDP.

The framework identifies information and communication technology, the blue economy and renewable energy as the main drivers of future growth.

It aims to ensure that at least 20% of total electricity generation comes from renewable sources by FY30.

The plan also includes a target of creating around one crore jobs and recruiting five lakh people into government service through merit-based appointments.

In the social sector, the government plans to introduce a "Family Card" programme for around four crore vulnerable households.

It also intends to raise public spending on health and education gradually to 5% of GDP.

The proposed framework includes a number of governance reforms, including a 10-year limit on the tenure of a prime minister, the introduction of a bicameral parliament with an upper chamber of 100 members and the restoration of a neutral caretaker government system.

The plan targets an increase in nominal GDP to $742.57 billion by FY30 from $495.17 billion at present, as part of the government's election pledge to build a $1 trillion economy by 2034.

After the meeting, Titumir said the new framework would move away from what he described as earlier "detached and number-focused" plans and would instead emphasise practical strategies aligned with current economic conditions and future challenges.

He said accountability and a clear implementation roadmap would be among the defining features of the new strategy.

State Minister for Planning Zonayed Saki said the country is facing a fragile economic situation and that the government had inherited a weak macroeconomic structure. "The goal is to move from recovery to long-term prosperity."

He added that there had been shortcomings in the implementation of earlier development plans and that the government had already begun assessing the current situation, reviewing past outcomes and reassessing ongoing projects.

GED member Monjur Ahmed said the government had initially considered adopting a two-year recovery programme but later expanded the initiative into a comprehensive five-year strategy after the formation of the elected government.

He said a draft would be prepared within two months, followed by consultations with stakeholders.

The final document is expected to be completed within the following two to three months before the implementation phase begins.

The government has drafted a five-year strategic framework proposing to designate ICT as a special priority sector and send 20 lakh workers abroad annually.

The draft framework has been made in line with the government’s aim of achieving a trillion-dollar economy by 2034, according to a presentation by the General Economics Division (GED) of the Bangladesh Planning Commission at an advisory council meeting yesterday.

It projects real GDP growth reaching 8 percent by fiscal year 2029-30 (FY30), nominal GDP at $749 billion, inflation falling to 5 percent, and gross investment rising to 37.6 percent of GDP.

The outline will go through further consultations with relevant stakeholders before being finalised.

ICT AND JOBS

As per the draft, within the ICT sector alone, the government is targeting 10 lakh direct and indirect jobs.

Of the 10 lakh ICT jobs, 2 lakh are targeted in five areas -- cybersecurity, business process outsourcing (BPO), artificial intelligence (AI) and data, semiconductors, and Industry 4.0. The remaining 8 lakh are to be created indirectly through freelancing.

A national initiative will strengthen software, hardware, and BPO industries, backed by a commitment to universal high-speed internet, the GED said.

The draft also states plans to introduce a national e-wallet, including PayPal access, for freelancers and tech professionals.

Beyond ICT, the government aims to send 20 lakh people abroad annually through short-term language and skills training.

More than 5 lakh vacant government posts are to be filled through a transparent recruitment process.

EXPORT AND ENERGY

As per the draft plan, the garment sector will see stronger “Made in Bangladesh” branding through new product innovation.

The draft aims to broaden the export base by prioritising pharmaceuticals, leather, footwear, and agriculture and fisheries-based products.

Strategic free trade agreements at bilateral, multilateral, and minilateral levels are planned with key economic blocs across East and Far East Asia, Europe, Africa, and the Middle East.

On the energy front, the draft proposes ensuring supply of at least 20 percent of electricity from renewable sources -- solar, wind, hydropower, and waste-to-energy -- by 2030.

The power generation capacity is set at 35,000 megawatts, with transmission lines to be expanded to 25,000 circuit kilometres.

INVESTMENT AND BUSINESS

The outlined framework aims to increase foreign direct investment (FDI) from 0.45 percent to 2.5 percent of GDP within the next five years.

It proposes dedicated liaison officers and a formal complaint resolution system to build investor confidence, alongside a commitment to avoid sudden policy changes in tariffs, taxes, and export incentives.

To improve the business environment, it has set a target to complete digitalisation of approval processes to eliminate red tape and reduce physical contact in business transactions.

Company registrations are to be completed within 48 hours, and work permits within seven days.

A Bangladesh International Commercial Court will be established for fast-tracking commercial dispute resolution, and a Deposit Protection Ordinance is planned to ensure repayment from distressed banks as quickly as possible.

Besides, the tax-to-GDP ratio is targeted at 15 percent by 2035, to be achieved through expanded economic activity rather than a higher tax burden.

BLUE, CREATIVE ECONOMIES

The blue economy -- covering oil and gas exploration, renewable energy, fish harvesting, and shipbuilding -- will be developed as a national priority within Bangladesh’s maritime area.

The proposed framework has also set a target for the government to raise the contribution of the creative economy -- spanning film, music, theatre, gaming, VFX, and content creation -- to 1.5 percent of GDP, and create 5 lakh new jobs by 2035.

TOURISM AND SMEs

A national tourism policy update has been proposed, alongside a programme to help each village produce and market its own traditional product through design support, order-based loans, and e-commerce connectivity.

The draft also recommends that government channels low-interest loans based on each district’s heritage and renowned products, support for cottage industries, links to global e-commerce platforms.

AKM Ansar Uddin, a former official of Bangladesh Petroleum Exploration and Production Company Limited (Bapex), placed his retirement savings of Tk 16 lakh with People’s Leasing and Financial Services Limited in the hope of earning a steady return.

He set aside the money for his three children, especially for the marriages of his two daughters. But when the deposit matured, the company did not return the principal, let alone any interest.

As his health deteriorated, the elderly depositor was unable to withdraw the funds for treatment. He died in November last year. Amid financial hardship, the family later arranged the daughters’ weddings without ceremony.

Speaking at a press conference at the Jatiya Press Club yesterday, his wife, Akhtari Begum, broke down in tears as she described their ordeal. Their youngest son, Anaf Uddin, sat beside her.

The event was organised by the Alliance of 6 NBFIs Depositors Recovery Committee, which represents depositors of six non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs) now under liquidation. The institutions are FAS Finance, Premier Leasing, Fareast Finance, Aviva Finance, People’s Leasing and International Leasing.

Over the years, several non-bank institutions collapsed amid widespread mismanagement, weak governance and heavy exposure to non-performing loans. Poor regulatory oversight and delayed action by the Bangladesh Bank (BB) deepened the crisis and ultimately led to liquidation.

At the press conference, Akhtari Begum said she had struggled to arrange her daughters’ marriages with dignity. “We are now uncertain how to survive with my children and cannot even ask others for help. Now I feel completely lost.”

She said her husband expected to receive Tk 7 lakh, which he planned to use for medical treatment instead of taking loans, fearing he would leave his family in debt. Now, she said, she does not know how she will live the rest of her life.

Nashid Kamal, a professor and Nazrul exponent, coordinated the press conference, where other depositors recounted similar hardship after their savings became trapped in the six institutions.

She said some depositors, including Mustafa Zaman Abbasi, a musicologist, reportedly died without proper medical treatment because he could not access his money.

Another depositor said her family invested funds primarily meant for medical treatment and savings in Aviva Finance. Since 2024, they have been unable to withdraw their money or receive regular returns.

“Even urgent medical requests submitted to the company were ignored, leaving us uncertain about our future,” she said, urging collective action, including approaching the BB governor and the finance minister.

A representative of the Khaled Mansur Trust, a privately funded charitable organisation, said the trust invested donated assets in institutions such as People’s Leasing, International Leasing and FAS Finance.

“The returns were used for education, healthcare, and welfare activities for underprivileged communities. However, with the funds now lost, our humanitarian work has been severely disrupted,” the representative said.

The trust urged the government to recognise it as a charitable entity and ensure the return of its deposits, saying that without support, its work for orphans and disadvantaged children may collapse.

Speakers called on the authorities to take immediate steps to repay the depositors, saying many families are living in acute distress. They said about 2,000 families have been affected. Many have neither recovered their principal nor received interest.

At the beginning of the press conference, Nashid Kamal read out a written statement on behalf of the affected depositors. She demanded the return of their hard-earned savings.

“For nearly seven years, depositors of various non-bank financial institutions have been suffering severe financial hardship due to mismanagement, weak governance, and delayed regulatory actions,” she said.

She said that while reforms, deposit protection and recovery mechanisms have been introduced in the banking sector, similar effective measures have not been properly implemented in the NBFI sector.

“We firmly state that any recovery or deposit protection framework applied to banks must also be extended to NBFIs, with necessary adjustments while safeguarding depositors’ fundamental rights. A depositor is a depositor whether in a bank or an NBFI. Equal protection, fair compensation, and timely repayment must be ensured in both sectors.”

The forum demanded a clear, transparent and time-bound roadmap to return deposits within 36 months, immediate recovery efforts for troubled institutions, regulatory protection equivalent to that in the banking sector, full transparency and accountability in liquidation and recovery processes, and strict legal action against those involved in financial irregularities.

In the statement, she said, “We call upon the government, the central bank, and all relevant authorities to take urgent and effective steps to restore confidence in the financial sector and ensure justice for affected depositors.”

“Our demands are simple and fair,” she said, adding that they would remain united in lawful protest until depositors’ rightful money is fully returned.

In January this year, the central bank decided to liquidate six of the country’s 35 non-bank financial institutions because of poor financial health.

The current BB governor, Md Mostaqur Rahman, appointed by the BNP-led government, has said reforms will continue, including the liquidation of the six institutions.