Bangladesh’s macroeconomic outlook is fragile as it faces three concurrent adverse external headwinds, including the Middle East crisis and the country’s impending graduation from the least developed country (LDC) category, said the Policy Research Institute (PRI) of Bangladesh yesterday.

Presenting the institute’s Monthly Macroeconomic Insights at its Dhaka office, Principal Economist Ashikur Rahman said uncertainty around US tariff policies is another factor casting a shadow over the economy’s prospects for a faster recovery.

“These shocks are feeding through energy prices, weakened trade flows, and supply chain disruptions, with broad economy-wide implications,” he said.

At the same time, pressure is building on the balance of payments amid weaker exports and higher energy costs, with limited policy buffers heightening overall vulnerability amid the US-Israel war on Iran.

Rahman noted that around 31 percent of Bangladesh’s energy imports originate from the Middle East, largely transiting the Strait of Hormuz. A study by Zero Carbon Analytics found that severe price shocks could raise the country’s energy bill by 40 percent to $16-$17 billion in the ongoing fiscal year 2025-26 (FY26).

The PRI economist noted that Bangladesh has seen a fragile recovery over the 18 months to February 2026, with reserves rising from about $18 billion to $30 billion, inflation easing to 8-9 percent, and deposit growth strengthening.

“Yet, this recovery was underpinned by core vulnerabilities,” said Rahman, noting growth slowed to 3 percent in the second quarter of FY26, the weakest since Covid. Non-performing loans stand at around 30 percent, dampening private credit growth to 6 percent, while limited fiscal space is pushing the government toward costly bank borrowing.

Against this backdrop, Rahman warned that rolling back reforms now would be self-defeating. “If we step back from economic reforms at this stage, it would be an economically suicidal decision. It must be treated as a national economic imperative.”

The reforms, he stressed, should not be framed as conditions set by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). “These are essential for strengthening our own economy and ensuring long-term growth.”

ICC Bangladesh President Mahbubur Rahman, speaking as the chief guest, said persistent uncertainty is making it harder for businesses to plan.

He pointed to a disconnect between policy direction and business expectations as a drag on private investment — and, by extension, on foreign direct investment. “In Bangladesh, politics and business often operate in parallel rather than in coordination. In reality, they should be deeply interconnected. Government, businesses, and investors are part of the same ecosystem.”

Besides, he said weak domestic investment is also constraining foreign direct investment inflows. “Local investment is not picking up, and naturally that raises a question: how will foreign direct investment come if domestic investors themselves are hesitant? Even machinery imports are declining because investors lack confidence.”

Uncertainty over energy supply and financial sector risks are key concerns, he said. “There is deep uncertainty among investors about whether they will get gas or electricity tomorrow. This lack of predictability is holding back decisions.

“On top of that, fears of becoming loan defaulters and difficulties in accessing finance are further increasing risk perception.”

Khondokar Shakhawat Ali, a visiting research fellow at the BRAC Institute of Governance and Development at BRAC University, stressed that economic stability requires structural reforms rather than short-term fixes.

He also pointed to the close nexus between political actors, bureaucrats, and sections of the private sector, saying, “It has blurred lines of responsibility and made reform more urgent.”

With Bangladesh facing both internal and external shocks, he cautioned that without prudent fiscal management, the country risks sliding into a deeper economic crisis.

Meanwhile, highlighting rising external risks, PRI Chairman Zaidi Sattar said geopolitical tensions, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, are posing systemic risks to global supply chains and fertiliser trade.

“Rising food, fuel, and fertiliser prices are pushing up import costs and intensifying inflationary pressures,” he said.

On Bangladesh’s LDC graduation, he said preparedness remains limited due to gaps in export diversification and competitiveness.

He also noted slow reform progress, stressing that “comprehensive tax reform is essential to strengthen domestic resource mobilisation.”

Former National Board of Revenue (NBR) chairman Muhammad Abdul Mazid said revenue reform is essential for economic stability, warning that delays will deepen fiscal risks.

“We must stop thinking that reforms are imposed from outside; these are reforms we need for our own survival,” he said, adding that continued failure to meet revenue targets is pushing the government into a cycle of borrowing that weakens the financial system.

“You cannot fix the economy without fixing the revenue system. This is where the foundation lies,” he said, noting that while reforms take time, postponing them will only raise long-term costs.

“If the economic ‘bleeding’ continues and we fail to act, recovery will become extremely difficult,” he added.

Top business leaders have urged the market regulator to be flexible on the use of initial public offering (IPO) funds for loan repayment, including allowing repayment of rescheduled loans amid a challenging business climate.

They made the request at a meeting organised by the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) at its Dhaka office yesterday to discuss the use of IPO proceeds.

Syed Nasim Manzur, managing director of Apex Footwear Limited, said many countries, including neighbouring ones, do not impose restrictions on the use of IPO funds for loan repayment.

Considering global standards, the scope for using IPO proceeds to repay loans could be expanded, he added.

In 2025, the regulator introduced the Public Offer of Equity Securities Rules, 2025. Under the new rules, companies may use up to 30 percent of IPO proceeds for debt repayment or investment, subject to conditions.

For loan repayment, the borrowing must have been used for a company project, business, machinery, renovation or expansion, and an auditor report must confirm proper utilisation of the funds.

The loans being repaid cannot be classified or rescheduled. In other words, they must not be overdue or deferred because of repayment problems.

These provisions are stricter than those under the 2015 rules, which allowed up to one-third of IPO funds to be used for debt repayment or working capital without linking the loans to specific projects or imposing conditions on their classification status.

Riad Mahmud, president of the Bangladesh Association of Publicly Listed Companies, said even well-performing companies may incur losses because of global crises and economic challenges, and may have rescheduled loans.

It is not sufficient to follow strict policies based only on ideal situations; flexibility is also necessary considering real-world circumstances, he said.

Taking into account economic conditions and global crises, he called for allowing the repayment of rescheduled loans using IPO proceeds.

Mominul Islam, chairman of the Dhaka Stock Exchange, also spoke in favour of allowing IPO funds to be used for loan repayment.

Khondoker Rashed Maqsood, chairman of the BSEC, thanked stakeholders for their opinions and proposals. He said the regulator would evaluate their views and recommendations, adding that one of its key mandates is to protect investor interests in the capital market.

He said, “The commission will ensure overall market development while safeguarding investor interests.”

Maqsood also said efforts are ongoing to bring fundamentally strong companies to the capital market.

Tapan Chowdhury, chairman of the Central Depository Bangladesh Limited and managing director of Square Group, said regulators must assess whether IPO funds are used properly and whether they genuinely benefit the company or project.

He noted that many large and reputed groups in the country have highly ambitious projects, and merely relying on the group’s reputation should not justify using IPO proceeds to repay loans for such projects.

Abdul Hai Sarker, chairman of the Bangladesh Association of Banks, said a strong and developed capital market is an effective solution for maintaining competitiveness in the global market and ensuring economic growth.

He called for the proper development and expansion of the market.

Mashrur Arefin, chairman of the Association of Bankers Bangladesh, said companies should have an opportunity to restructure capital by repaying loans taken for productive or expansion purposes using IPO funds.

Considering the country’s economic conditions and various crises, he said loans that have not been rescheduled more than twice could be allowed under such provisions, while maintaining appropriate control mechanisms.

Kamran T Rahman, president of the Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Dhaka, said, “In the country, short-term deposits are being used to finance long-term investments. This practice should be discouraged, and long-term financing should be ensured through the capital market. To achieve this, policy and regulatory alignment are necessary.”

AKM Habibur Rahman, chairman of the Chittagong Stock Exchange, Saiful Islam, president of the DSE Brokers Association of Bangladesh, and senior BSEC officials also attended the meeting.

When the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) database on April 14, one data point quickly made its way through financial markets and newsrooms.

Bangladesh is projected to record a higher gross domestic product per capita than India in 2026, measured in current US dollars. The forecast puts Bangladesh at $2,911 per person against India at $2,812. The difference is small in absolute terms, but its symbolism is significant.

India’s economy, valued at $3,916 billion in 2025, is roughly eight times the size of Bangladesh’s $458 billion. It is also one of the most closely watched growth stories in the world. Yet on this narrow measure, the smaller neighbour appears set to edge ahead.

The reaction in India was swift. Kaushik Basu, former chief economist of the World Bank, described the development as "shocking". Indian commentators debated whether the figure reflected a deeper structural divergence or merely a statistical quirk.

The answer, as is so often the case with economic data, is: both.

Measured in current dollars, Bangladesh led India in per capita income for seven years from 2018.

India moved ahead in 2025 after the Bangladeshi taka weakened sharply. This is not without precedent.

Bangladesh was also ahead of India in per capita GDP between 1989 and 2002.

India then pulled in front for around 15 years before slipping below Bangladesh in 2018.

The rupee's own depreciation against the dollar in the subsequent period then swung the comparison back.

According to the latest projections, Bangladesh is set to move ahead in 2026 by roughly $100 per person.

The IMF expects India to regain the lead in 2027 and to remain ahead at least until 2031.

To understand why this measure is so volatile, consider the arithmetic.

GDP per capita in current dollars is calculated by converting each country's output into US dollars at the prevailing exchange rate.

When a currency depreciates — as both the taka and the rupee have done in recent years, though at different speeds — it compresses the dollar value of output regardless of how productive the underlying economy has become.

The crossing of the two lines in 2026, seen on any given screen, tells us something real: that exchange-rate dynamics now place the two economies' dollar incomes within touching distance of each other. It does not, on its own, tell us which population is better off.

The second measure complicates the picture considerably. The IMF also publishes GDP per capita adjusted for purchasing power parity (PPP), which strips out exchange-rate movements and instead converts output into a common "international dollar" based on what each currency can actually buy domestically.

On this basis, India leads Bangladesh by a wide margin — and always has in the modern era.

In 2025, India's PPP-adjusted GDP per capita stands at $11,789 — some 15 percent above Bangladesh's $10,271.

By 2031, the IMF projects the gap will widen to nearly 24 percent, with India reaching $18,485 against Bangladesh's $14,857.

Nearly 1.6 crore people in Bangladesh faced high levels of acute food insecurity in 2025, placing the country among the top ten nations with the largest number of people struggling to secure enough food, according to the latest Global Report on Food Crises.

The 2026 report, published by an alliance of UN agencies, the European Union and other partners, said that food conditions in those ten worst-affected countries are unlikely to improve this year.

Together, including Afghanistan, Myanmar and Pakistan, they accounted for two-thirds of the 26.6 crore people worldwide who experienced acute food insecurity last year.

The other countries on the list are the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Nigeria, South Sudan, Sudan, the Syrian Arab Republic and Yemen.

The report said chronic economic weakness continues to erode resilience at both household and national levels.

"Half of the world's poorest people live in five countries, three of which -- Bangladesh, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Nigeria -- are in protracted food crises," it said.

Acute food insecurity occurs when one or more dimensions of food security, including availability, access, utilisation and stability, are disrupted to a degree that threatens lives or livelihoods.

Despite the scale of the challenge, Bangladesh recorded progress. The number of people facing acute food insecurity fell by 32 percent in 2025 compared with the previous year, with no major natural disasters reported.

The report, however, highlighted worsening conditions among forcibly displaced Myanmar nationals in two districts, amid a fresh influx of Rohingya refugees, flooding and cuts to humanitarian assistance.

Bangladesh is also listed among countries facing a moderate nutrition crisis, alongside Niger, parts of Nigeria and Sudan, and the Syrian Arab Republic, even as overall food security indicators improved.

Qu Dongyu, director-general of the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), said acute food insecurity had become structural rather than temporary. "Acute food insecurity today is not just widespread -- it is also persistent and recurring.”

Conflict remained the primary driver, accounting for more than half of all people facing severe hunger. More than 39 million people in 32 countries faced emergency levels of food insecurity, while the number experiencing catastrophic hunger had risen ninefold since 2016.

Children bore a heavy toll. In 2025, 35.5 million children were acutely malnourished, including nearly 10 million suffering from severe acute malnutrition.

Ricardo Pires, spokesperson for the UN Children's Fund (Unicef), warned that children with severe wasting faced heightened mortality risk, as weakened immune systems left them vulnerable to ordinarily non-fatal illnesses.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres, writing in the foreword, called for scaled-up investment in aid and an end to the conflicts driving the crisis.

The report also states that the outlook for 2026 remains bleak. Ongoing conflict, climate shocks, economic instability and Middle East-linked supply chain disruptions are expected to sustain critical food insecurity levels across multiple countries.

The European Union and United States signed an agreement Friday to coordinate on the supply of critical minerals needed for key industries including defense, as China's dominance becomes a growing concern.

The pact marks a rare embrace by President Donald Trump's administration of the role of the EU, which it often berates as it instead champions right-wing populists within Europe.

Flexing its muscle at times of tension, Beijing has restricted exports of critical minerals needed for products including semiconductors, electric vehicle batteries and weapons systems.

"The overconcentration of these resources, the fact that they're dominated by one or two places, is an unacceptable risk," US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said as he signed a memorandum of understanding with EU trade chief Maros Sefcovic.

Sefcovic told a separate press briefing that the agreement "formalizes our partnership across the entire value chain, from exploration and extraction to processing, refining, recycling and recovery."

On concerns that China could retaliate against a potential critical minerals deal involving multiple parties, Sefcovic said: "For us, it's really a matter of economic security. It's a matter of overcoming dependencies."

From recent experience, "we know how dependencies could be expensive, and we have a huge price tag for being dependent on the sources of our fossil fuels," he added.

"We simply want to learn from that experience and have a much more diversified portfolio of suppliers," Sefcovic said.

Rubio noted that the United States and the EU combined are "the largest customers and users" of critical minerals.

"We have to make sure that these supplies and these minerals are available for our futures and in ways that are not monopolized in one place or concentrated heavily in one place," Rubio added.

An action plan said that the EU and United States would explore setting minimum prices on critical minerals -- effectively preventing China or other outside powers from flooding the market with inexpensive exports.

They will also look at coordinating any subsidies and stockpiles of critical minerals, and could coordinate joint standards to ease trade across the Western world, and together invest in research.

The US Trade Representative's office said this plan will be the main mechanism to "coordinate trade policies and measures on critical minerals supply chains with a view to concluding a binding plurilateral agreement on trade."

The Trump administration has previously called for a preferential trade zone among allies on critical minerals.

Washington has also unveiled critical minerals action plans with Mexico and Japan, alongside a supply framework with Australia and others.

A surfeit of 'high-powered' money in the economy stokes concern about inflation upturn as reserve money more than doubled in terms of year-on-year growth as of February.Economic analysis reports

The central bank of Bangladesh has injected Tk 200 billion in printed money into

economy recently to feed government expenditure needs, economists say.

Bangladesh Bank officials, however, play down such concern as they claim the regulator has got a stronger rise in its net foreign assets (NFA), including foreign- exchange reserves, during the current fiscal year.

The increase in reserve, dubbed 'high-power money', signifies a sharp expansion of liquidity on the money market. Data released from the central bank show reserve money grew 13.35 per cent in February 2026, up from 6.16 per cent in the same month a year earlier.

The BB attributes the increase largely to a stronger rise in its net foreign assets, including foreign-exchange reserves, during the fiscal year 2025-26, compared with only a marginal increase in the previous year.

Reserve money is also referred to as the monetary base that comprises currency in circulation and commercial banks' reserves held with the central bank.

It forms the foundation of the broader money supply and can have significant implications for inflation and credit conditions, economists explain.Bangladesh economic statistics

People familiar with the developments told The Financial Express that the recent surge in the net foreign asset reflects sizeable dollar purchases by the Bangladesh Bank.

The central bank bought more than $5.50 billion from the market during the fiscal year, boosting its foreign-asset holdings and in turn expanding reserve money.

They also say inflows of foreign grants and assistance from some international lenders, for example, the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank, also contributed to the rise in net foreign assets in the state treasury.

Some economists strike a note of caution that the increase in high-powered money could add fuel to inflationary pressures if not managed carefully.

"We believe the situation remains under control," says Dr Md Ezazul Islam, director- general of Bangladesh Institute of Bank Management.

He says a potential increase in private-sector imports in the coming months could help moderate reserve-money growth.

Others appear more concerned about the inflationary impact.

"This helps explain why inflation is not easing," says Dr M Masrur Reaz, chairman and chief executive officer of Policy Exchange Bangladesh.Financial news subscription

He adds that the central bank has recently injected around Tk 200 billion in the economy, amplifying liquidity through multiplier effects and contributing to persistent price pressures.

Reinstating the package-VAT system to bring marginal businesses under the tax net is now under active consideration of the government, as compliance with the existing value-added-tax regime remains weak, sources say.

Officials at the National Board of Revenue (NBR) say the move is being made targeting the small and informal businesses that struggle to maintain proper accounts under the current VAT framework.

Package VAT is a fixed monthly amount paid by businesses, typically through their trade associations. The system was abolished in June 2019 following the introduction of the new VAT and Supplementary Duty Act and the VAT Online Project, which aimed to digitise tax collection.

However, NBR officials now acknowledge that bringing businesses in growth centres and retail hubs onto the VAT net has proven difficult, leading to significant revenue losses from the large informal sector.

The existing system, too, has been criticised for giving "discretionary powers" to field-level VAT officials to assess sales and determine payable value-added tax-- often resulting in harassment and allegations of corruption.

"We are overhauling the VAT law to make compliance easier for small and medium enterprises," NBR Chairman Abdur Rahman Khan told members of the Economic Reporters Forum (ERF) at a pre-budget meeting with Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury. Personalfinance advice

"We have not yet been able to effectively implement the standard 15-percent VAT rate. Now we are compiling data on marginal and new SMEs to bring them under a fixed VAT system," he says.

The VAT base remains significantly smaller than the income-tax base, with only about 0.8 million VAT-registered entities compared to 12.8 million income taxpayers, Mr Khan points out the mismatch.

Business leaders have welcomed the proposed move but urged caution in setting the VAT amount.

Md Zahirul Haque Bhuiya, Secretary-General of the Bangladesh Dokan Malik Samity, also acknowledges that the government currently earns little revenue from sectors previously covered under package VAT. Bangladeshtravel guideBangladesh market analysis

However, he warns that excessive rates could discourage compliance.

"When the package VAT was increased sharply -- from Tk 4,200 to Tk 28,000 annually -- many small businesses dropped out of the system," he says .

Efforts to digitise VAT collection through Electronic Cash Registers (ECR) and the Electronic Fiscal Device Management System (EFDMS) have also failed to significantly improve revenue mobilisation from small businesses, he adds.

NBR data show that package -VAT collection had declined steadily before its abolition.

Revenue stood at Tk 23.81 billion in the fiscal year 2015-16 but dropped to Tk 18.91 billion in FY2016-17 after the rate was doubled. Collection had reached a rock-bottom Tk 11.75 billion until February of FY2018-19.

Under the previous system, VAT was fixed based on business location. Annual rates were set at Tk 28,000 for Dhaka and Chattogram city corporations, Tk 20,000 for other city corporations, Tk 14,000 for district towns, and Tk 7,000 for other areas.

Earlier rates ranged between Tk 3,600 and Tk 14,000 before being doubled in FY2016-17.

Business owners allege that corruption among field-level officials also contributed to the decline in compliance.

Solaiman Parsee, a trader in Old Dhaka, says many businesses were willing to pay VAT but were "discouraged by officials seeking bribes".

"A section of VAT inspectors often persuades traders not to pay the official amount and instead demands informal payments," he says about the deprivation of state exchequer by such taxmen who line their own pockets.

He argues that the fixed VAT is not burdensome, noting that the highest annual rate translates to around Tk 76.71 per day.

He also suggests making Business Identification Number (BIN) mandatory to prevent misuse of the system.

However, some experts would like to dislike the reintroduction of package VAT over again.

Dr Abdur Rouf, chairman of the VAT Forum, says the government should prioritise helping small businesses grow instead of imposing fixed taxes.

He also recommends scrapping the turnover tax, arguing that it generates minimal revenue while adding to compliance burdens.

He opines that rather than introducing package VAT, "it shall be much expedient to remove the existing Turnover Tax since collection of TT is less than one -core taka annually, a very insignificant amount".

"Then a good number of SMEs shall go beyond VAT net but government will lose nothing."

He further suggests reduction in trade VAT to 3-5 per cent and abolition of Advance Tax at import stage which is trade VAT in other words.

He thinks introduction of package VAT will seriously undermine the objective of standard VAT and give rise to manifold complications at the field level without any significant impact on VAT collection.

Bangladesh and Ethiopia have agreed to elevate their bilateral relations to a higher level through enhanced economic cooperation.Economy news updates

Foreign Minister Dr Khalilur Rahman, now visiting Ethiopia, held a meeting with Minister of Foreign Affairs Gedion Timothewos and discussed issues of mutual interest.

The two Ministers exchanged views on areas of cooperation in both bilateral and multilateral relations, said the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ethiopia.

Gedion noted that Ethiopia continues to register sustained economic growth and invited Bangladeshi companies to engage in priority investment sectors identified by the Government, including renewable energy generation, agro-processing, the pharmaceutical and medical equipment manufacturing industries, as well as the broader manufacturing sector.

Minister Dr Khalilur underscored his country’s commitment to further strengthening bilateral relations with Ethiopia, particularly in the areas of trade and investment cooperation.

The European Commission will set out plans on Wednesday to cut electricity taxes and coordinate the summer refill of countries' gas storage, as it seeks to cushion the energy fallout from the Iran war.

Draft proposals seen by Reuters show the EU will, for now, avoid major market interventions such as capping gas prices or taxing energy companies' windfall profits - measures it used in 2022 when Russia cut gas supplies and prices hit record highs.

Instead, the Commission plans to curb EU tax rules to favour electricity over oil and gas, and make it easier for governments to cut industries' electricity taxes to zero, according to the drafts, which could still change before publication.

The EU would also step in to coordinate countries' efforts to fill gas storage in the coming months, and provide guidance on how governments should handle potential jet fuel shortages.

Europe's heavy reliance on oil and gas imports has left it exposed to spiralling prices since the Strait of Hormuz, a vital fuel shipping route, was effectively closed and Iran started attacking energy infrastructure in the Middle East.

Europe's benchmark gas price on Tuesday was roughly a third higher than before the US-Israeli war with Iran began on 28 February.

However, the EU's biggest oil and gas suppliers - the US and Norway - are outside the Middle East, and the Iran crisis has not yet triggered fuel shortages in Europe. Airlines have warned, though, that jet fuel shortages could emerge in weeks.

EU officials told Reuters the bloc's relatively restrained response reflects the fact that national governments, rather than Brussels, control many crisis-management levers, including subsidies and cutting national taxes and levies.

The Commission's plans outline non-binding ways for governments to provide "immediate relief", including requiring businesses to avoid air travel where possible.

Some officials said the response also reflects an assessment that the war-driven energy shock could last for months, making it prudent to hold back more extreme measures for now.

Elisabetta Cornago, assistant director at the Centre for European Reform think tank, said continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz "may lead us to a worse shock regarding oil than in 2022, a similar gas shock, but I think a smaller shock on electricity prices".

That's because countries have significantly expanded renewable electricity since 2022, she said.

The EU produced 71% of its electricity from low-carbon sources, including renewables and nuclear, last year, up from around 60% in 2022, data from think tank Ember showed.

Foreign buyers have begun scaling back export orders as concerns over Bangladesh's energy stability and "negative messaging" regarding fuel shortages rattle international markets, Bangladesh Chamber of Industries (BCI) President Anwar-Ul-Alam Chowdhury (Parvez) said today (22 April).

"Negative messaging is going out. I think we should be more careful in what we say. We keep saying we have fuel shortages and gas issues. Foreign buyers are now getting concerned. They are starting to say 'your country will not even have sufficient gas'," he said during a pre-budget discussion in the capital.

He noted that concerns over electricity supply and overall economic stability in Bangladesh are growing among international buyers. As a result, several sourcing companies are increasingly shifting orders to India and other competing markets.

According to him, expected purchase orders for July and August have slowed significantly, with multiple large buyers already expressing caution. While liaison offices in Dhaka are attempting to manage concerns, top-level management abroad is becoming more reluctant to place new orders.

"In the last one week, four major international companies told me that their top management is not approving orders because they fear there may not be reliable electricity in Bangladesh," he said.

He also warned that several global buyers have started sending similar signals, adding that the readymade garment sector could come under pressure if the trend continues.

Beyond energy concerns, Anwar-Ul-Alam pointed to global market volatility and domestic structural issues as additional reasons behind the slowdown in export orders.

He said the expected order flow for the upcoming July-August period has largely stalled.

He further criticised the existing tax framework for small entrepreneurs, calling it unrealistic under current business conditions.

According to him, the requirement to pay a minimum 1% tax regardless of profit or loss is becoming increasingly burdensome.

"If small entrepreneurs can be brought under a proper tax slab system, it would help them survive. Even when there is no profit, they are still required to pay tax, which is putting them under serious pressure," he said.

He also called for a reduction in withholding tax on export earnings.

Ukraine has restarted pumping Russian oil to Hungary and Slovakia after completing repairs to the Druzhba pipeline after it was damaged in a Russian attack in January, the three countries said Wednesday.

The pipeline has been at the centre of a standoff between Ukraine, the European Union, and Hungary and Slovakia — which still import Russian oil via the pipeline.

Kyiv hopes the resumption of supplies will unblock the last hurdle to securing tens of billions of euros in support from Brussels that has been held up by Hungary’s outgoing nationalist leader Viktor Orban.

Hours after Ukraine said oil had started flowing, EU officials gave preliminary approval for the long-stalled loan of 90 billion euros ($106 billion) to be disbursed.

‘Oil transit was launched and pumping began,’ an energy industry source in Ukraine told AFP.

Hungary and Slovakia confirmed transit had started and said supplies should start arriving Thursday.

Hungarian energy giant MOL said it ‘expects the first crude oil shipments following the restart of the Ukrainian section of the pipeline system to arrive in Hungary and Slovakia by tomorrow at the latest’.

Slovakia’s economy minister Denisa Sakova also said the first deliveries were expected in the early hours of Thursday, in a post on Facebook.

Hungary’s Orban had blocked the multibillion-euro loan for Ukraine as leverage to pressure Kyiv to resume oil deliveries, accusing it of stalling repairs.

His defeat in elections this month was seen as paving the way for the money to be unlocked.

Slovak prime minister Robert Fico, who has repeatedly clashed with Kyiv and Brussels, said Wednesday that he ‘would not be surprised if the 90 billion loan were unblocked and then oil supplies were cut off again’.

Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky has made no secret of his opposition to the fact that some EU members still buy Russian oil and gas, a key source of revenue for Moscow to fund its invasion launched more than four years ago.

Grameenphone, the country's largest telecom operator, reported a 4.40% year-on-year rise in net profit to Tk662 crore in the January-March quarter of 2025, up from Tk634 crore in the same period last year, even as revenue declined.

According to a company disclosure issued today (22 April), the earnings growth was supported by lower depreciation and amortisation costs, reduced finance expenses, and improved operational efficiency across the business.

Despite macroeconomic pressures, earnings per share (EPS) increased to Tk4.90 from Tk4.69 a year earlier, reflecting stronger profitability per share.

Revenue, however, fell 2.0% year-on-year to Tk3,758 crore from Tk3,835 crore, largely due to challenging economic conditions. The decline was partially offset by growth in data services, which helped cushion weaker voice revenue.

The company maintained a strong EBITDA margin of around 58%, although it recorded a slight 1.5% decline year-on-year due to lower revenue. Operating expenses dropped 2%, while cost of goods sold fell 7.3%, indicating tighter cost control without affecting service quality.

Grameenphone's subscriber base stood at 8.42 crore at the end of the quarter, with 4.92 crore users (58.4%) using internet services. Active data users grew 1.7%, while average data consumption rose 5.4% to about 7.7 GB per user, underscoring continued digital adoption.

Chief Executive Officer Yasir Azman said the company remained resilient amid external challenges and continued to invest in network expansion, IT infrastructure, spectrum, and AI-driven transformation. He noted that Grameenphone is advancing towards an AI-first telecom model as part of its broader digital strategy.

He also highlighted the recent acquisition of 700 MHz spectrum, which is expected to improve rural coverage and strengthen indoor connectivity, helping bridge long-standing service gaps and support future data demand.

Chief Financial Officer Otto Risbakk said that while revenue was affected by macroeconomic pressures, disciplined cost management helped sustain profitability. He added that earnings quality improved during the quarter, with efficiency gains achieved without compromising customer experience or network performance.

In 2025, the company declared a 105% final cash dividend, bringing total dividend payout to 215%, including the interim dividend, reflecting strong cash generation despite a challenging operating environment.

However, on a full-year basis, Grameenphone's profit after tax declined 18.53% year-on-year to Tk2,958 crore in 2025, down from Tk3,631 crore in 2024, as weaker consumer spending, rising costs, and cautious business activity weighed on earnings.

Ibn Sina Pharmaceutical Industry PLC reported a strong growth in earnings for the first nine months of the current fiscal year, despite a decline in its third-quarter performance.

According to its price-sensitive information, the company's consolidated earnings per share (EPS) rose to Tk19.94 during the July-March period, marking a 32.75% increase compared to the same period in the previous fiscal year.

The company's board approved the third-quarter financial statements at a meeting held today (22 April) in line with listing regulations. The financials are yet to be audited.

However, in the third quarter alone (January-March), the company's EPS declined by 16% to Tk4.67, down from Tk5.55 recorded in the corresponding period a year earlier.

Meanwhile, the company's consolidated net asset value (NAV) increased to Tk434.61 crore, up from Tk392.69 crore in the previous period.

প্রতি বছর ব্যাংক থেকে যে পরিমাণ মেয়াদি ঋণ দেয়া হয়, তার একটি নির্দিষ্ট অনুপাত (যেমন ২ লাখ কোটি টাকার বিপরীতে ২০-৩০ হাজার কোটি টাকা) পুঁজিবাজার থেকে সংগ্রহের লক্ষ্যমাত্রা মুদ্রানীতিতে থাকা উচিত। এটি বাস্তবায়নে সুদের হার ও করনীতির ক্ষেত্রে কোথায় সমন্বয় করতে হবে এবং কোন কোন খাতকে অগ্রাধিকার দিতে হবে সেটি নির্ধারণে বাংলাদেশ ব্যাংক, এনবিআর ও বিএসইসির মধ্যে সমন্বয়ের প্রয়োজন আছে।

পুঁজিবাজারের বিনিয়োগ জমি বা বন্ডের তুলনায় বেশি ঝুঁকিপূর্ণ। তাই এ ঝুঁকি সামাল দিতে বিনিয়োগকারীদের একটি ‘প্রিমিয়াম’ বা বিশেষ সুবিধা দেয়া উচিত। এক্ষেত্রে পুঁজিবাজারে বিনিয়োগের সময়সীমার ওপর ভিত্তি করে মূলধনি মুনাফার ওপর করহার নির্ধারণ করা উচিত। এক বছর পর্যন্ত বিনিয়োগের ক্ষেত্রে ১৫ শতাংশ, দুই-তিন বছর মেয়াদি বিনিয়োগের ক্ষেত্রে ১০ শতাংশ, চার-পাঁচ বছর মেয়াদি বিনিয়োগের ক্ষেত্রে ৫ শতাংশ এবং বিনিয়োগের মেয়াদ পাঁচ বছরের বেশি হলে শূন্য কর নির্ধারণ করা যেতে পারে।

বিদেশী বিনিয়োগকারীদের প্রধান উদ্বেগের জায়গা হলো মুনাফা প্রত্যাবাসন ও করসংক্রান্ত জটিলতা। এজন্য পুঁজিবাজারে বিদেশী বিনিয়োগ আকর্ষণে কর ব্যবস্থা সহজ করা প্রয়োজন। এক্ষেত্রে শেয়ার বিক্রির পরপরই যেন স্টক এক্সচেঞ্জের মাধ্যমে উৎসে কর কেটে নেয়ার সুযোগ থাকে এবং তাৎক্ষণিক নিষ্পত্তি করা যায় এমন ব্যবস্থা রাখা দরকার।

বাজেটে সম্পদ করের বিষয়টি নিয়ে আলোচনা হচ্ছে। শেয়ারের দাম পরিবর্তনশীল হওয়ায় বছর বছর কর দেওয়ার পর লোকসানে শেয়ার বিক্রি করলে বিনিয়োগকারী বড় ক্ষতির মুখে পড়বেন। সম্পদ করের চাপে বিনিয়োগকারীরা দীর্ঘমেয়াদে শেয়ার না রেখে দ্রুত বিক্রি করে দেবেন, যা বাজারে অস্থিরতা বাড়াবে।মূলধনি মুনাফার ওপর করের পাশাপাশি সম্পদ কর আরোপ করলে বিনিয়োগের সক্ষমতা ও আগ্রহ দুটোই কমে যাবে। তাই শেয়ার ও বন্ডে বিনিয়োগের বিষয়টি সম্পদ করের আওতার বাইরে রাখাটাই যুক্তিসংগত হবে।

The Dhaka Chamber of Commerce & Industry (DCCI) yesterday proposed reducing the corporate tax rate for non-listed companies to 25 percent from the current 27.5 percent in the upcoming budget for the 2026-27 fiscal year.

The proposal was part of a 54-point fiscal package the chamber submitted to the National Board of Revenue (NBR) yesterday, according to a press release.

Among the headline measures, DCCI urged raising the individual tax-free income ceiling to Tk 500,000, reducing advance tax on commercial imports from 7.5 percent to 5 percent, and removing the upper limit on VAT refunds.

It also proposed cutting the source tax on interest income from company security deposits from 20 percent to 10 percent and gradually abolishing the surcharge on companies’ net assets.

Convener of DCCI’s Customs, VAT, Taxation and NBR-Related Issues Standing Committee, MBM Lutful Hadee, said the proposals were aimed at expanding the tax net, reducing the cost of doing business, and stimulating investment in the manufacturing sector.

DCCI Acting Secretary General AKM Asaduzzaman Patwary proposed a central API integration system to close revenue gaps and reduce the deficit.

Responding to the proposals, NBR Chairman Md Abdur Rahman Khan said the board would prioritise easing non-tariff barriers over cutting tariff rates outright.

He said there would be no leniency towards tax evaders, while pledging to ease compliance burdens for honest taxpayers.

Khan added that fewer than 8 lakh businesses were currently VAT-registered, a figure he described as inadequate, noting the number should exceed 10 lakh given the country’s economic scale.

He said that corporate tax had already been reduced from 50 percent to 27.5 percent over time, leaving limited room for further cuts.

The NBR chairman added that online corporate tax return filing and digital refund systems would be operational from the coming fiscal year.

The DCCI acting secretary general presented the proposals at a pre-budget discussion held at the NBR in Dhaka, on behalf of DCCI President Taskeen Ahmed.

Japanese household and personal care giant Lion Corporation has begun production in Bangladesh, targeting a share of the country's 18 crore-strong consumer market.

The company, which dates back to 1891, entered the Bangladeshi market in 2022 through a joint venture – Lion Kallol Limited – with the local Kallol Group, in which it holds a 75% stake.

Commercial operations started last month at its factory in the Bangladesh Special Economic Zone in Araihazar, widely known as the Japanese Economic Zone.

The plant has begun production with two flagship products – Mama Lemon dishwashing liquid and Systema toothbrush – while the company plans to gradually expand its portfolio of household and personal care items.

A visit to the factory on 9 April showed a compact, elevated single-storey facility reflecting Japanese industrial discipline and efficiency. Product displays at the entrance featured a range of items, including Kodomo baby care products, Jet fabric-cleaning products, and oral care offerings.

Company officials said the investment reflects a long-term commitment to Bangladesh, aimed at strengthening local manufacturing, reducing reliance on imports and improving supply chains. The project is also expected to create jobs, facilitate technology transfer and support the development of ancillary industries.

"This new plant represents our long-term commitment to Bangladesh. It strengthens our supply capabilities and enhances our ability to deliver innovative, value-added products while contributing to healthier lifestyles and broader economic development," said Go Ichitani, chairman of Lion Kallol.

Lion Corporation, with more than 130 years of business operations, produces a wide range of everyday household and personal care products, including toothpaste and toothbrushes, detergents, soaps, hair and skincare products, and over-the-counter pharmaceuticals.

Its business operations are broadly divided into consumer goods, industrial products and overseas operations, with consolidated net sales exceeding ¥400 billion (around $2.52 billion) as of the 2025 financial year.

Apart from Bangladesh, Lion operates across Asia and other regions through subsidiaries and joint ventures in countries including India, Australia, Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, South Korea, China and Singapore.

As of 2025, the firm employs more than 8,000 people worldwide and continues to invest in research, digital transformation and environmentally friendly technologies as part of its long-term growth strategy.

Ghulam Mostafa, managing director of Kallol Group, said the partnership with Lion Corporation would bring advanced technologies and help raise quality standards in the local market.

Takashi Ochiai, director of factory operations, said the facility had been built with strong emphasis on quality assurance, workforce capability and manufacturing discipline, adding that it could also support export markets in the future.

Built on about 3.3 hectares inside the economic zone, the factory is equipped with modern production lines, quality control systems and environmentally compliant processes. The facility was designed and constructed by Shimizu Corporation.

Currently producing fast-moving consumer goods, the plant is expected to employ around 273 workers. According to officials from the Bangladesh Economic Zones Authority, the company has so far invested about $7.6 million, with plans to expand investment to around $19.41 million in the next phase.

Ashik Chowdhury, executive chairman of both the Bangladesh Investment Development Authority and the Bangladesh Economic Zones Authority, told The Business Standard that such investments send a strong signal to the market, noting that investor confidence has improved following the national election.

"Such large-scale investments create a positive signalling effect. We already have several major investment proposals in the pipeline," he said, expressing optimism about stronger inflows this year.

He added that employment generation and skill development remain central to economic zone strategies, with the government extending full support to investors.

Chiharu Tagawa, managing director of BSEZ Ltd, said three companies are currently in production in the zone, including Lion Kallol, while 12 firms have leased land, several of which have begun construction.

Investor interest has increased notably after the election, with fresh enquiries from foreign companies, he said.

A senior official of Lion Kallol declined to disclose sales or growth figures, citing confidentiality, but said the company's presence in Bangladesh is expanding through products focused on hygiene and family care.

"From Kodomo baby care to Mama Lemon dishwashing liquid and Systema oral care, we are proud to serve Bangladeshi households," the official said.

Asian stocks fell and oil prices rose Thursday as the United States and Iran appeared no closer to holding fresh peace talks and Tehran continued to refuse to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Hopes that the two would meet for a second round of negotiations in Pakistan have dissipated, with the Islamic republic targeting three container ships in the waterway and citing Washington's blockade as its reason for keeping it closed.

Investors have spent most of the week upbeat that a breakthrough to end the seven-week conflict will be made soon, while healthy earnings and a resumption of the AI trade has also provided support.

Crude prices jumped as much as four percent in early Asian business after global security monitors and Iran's Revolutionary Guards said Iranian forces had seized two ships and fired on a third in the Strait of Hormuz.

Tehran has said vessels must seek permission to leave or enter the Gulf through the waterway, which in peacetime accounts for around a fifth of the world's oil and gas exports along with other vital commodities.

However, the White House said Donald Trump did not consider the move to be a ceasefire violation because the vessels are not American or Israeli.

Meanwhile, Iran's parliament speaker said the Islamic republic would not reopen the Strait as long as the US naval blockade remained, calling it a "blatant violation" of the two countries' ceasefire.

"A complete ceasefire only has meaning if it is not violated through a naval blockade... Reopening the Strait of Hormuz is not possible amid a blatant violation of the ceasefire," speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said on X.

Still, Trump's Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said he "has not set a firm deadline to receive an Iranian proposal" for talks.

"Ultimately, the timeline will be dictated by the commander in chief," she told journalists.

Oil prices remained elevated, with Brent holding above $100 following a surge Wednesday, though they pared Thursday's initial gains.

Most equities fell, though, with Tokyo, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Sydney, Singapore and Wellington all down.

But Seoul rallied more than one percent to a new record thanks to a fresh rally in the tech sector that has been the backbone of a surge in the Kospi index this year.

Taipei, Manila and Jakarta were also up.

"Whether it's conflict fatigue or confidence that the conflict between the US and Iran will be resolved soon, there is limited evidence that the rise in the oil price dampened bond and equity markets," said National Australia Bank's Skye Masters.

However, she added that the Washington Post had reported a senior Defence Department warned it could take six months to fully clear the Strait of Hormuz of mines and that such an operation would probably not unlikely start before the end of the war.

"It is questionable whether financial markets are correctly pricing the reality that supply constraints will remain an issue for some time," she wrote.

Raphael Olszyna-Marzys, of Bank J. Safra Sarasin, added: "Financial markets are pricing a high likelihood that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will soon normalise.

"Our game-theory model suggests that a narrow agreement to reopen the strait is in both parties' best interests. This outcome remains our base case. But it also reveals that a misreading of the other party's intentions could lead to a further ratcheting-up of tensions before we get there."

Investors took some heart from strong earnings reports, with South Korean chip titan SK hynix posting a nearly 400 percent jump in net profit that hit a record for January-March thanks to the artificial intelligence boom.

That came after Tesla announced forecast-topping first-quarter profits and Texas Instruments offered a healthy outlook.

Bloomberg said almost 80 percent of the S&P 500 firms that have reported first-quarter earnings had beaten analyst estimates so far.

Key figures at 0230 GMT

West Texas Intermediate: UP 0.7 percent at $93.65 a barrel
Brent North Sea Crude: UP 0.6 percent at $102.47 a barrel
Tokyo - Nikkei 225: DOWN 1.1 percent at 58,952.11 (break)
Hong Kong - Hang Seng Index: DOWN 0.9 percent at 25,926.59
Shanghai - Composite: DOWN 0.1 percent at 4,100.38
Euro/dollar: UP at $1.1710 from $1.1709 on Wednesday
Pound/dollar: DOWN at $1.3501 from $1.3506
Dollar/yen: DOWN at 159.41 yen from 159.49 yen
Euro/pound: UP at 86.73 pence from 86.70 pence

Retail sales in the United States soared past expectations in March, government data showed Tuesday, as gasoline prices surged on fallout from war in the Middle East.

Sales rose by 1.7 percent from the prior month to $752.1 billion, more than analysts expected -- its biggest jump in a year, Commerce Department data showed.

From a year ago, retail sales bounced 4.0 percent.

The acceleration came on the back of a 15.5 percent month-on-month increase in gasoline station sales, as energy costs climbed in March.

US-Israeli strikes targeting Iran from February 28 triggered Tehran's retaliation in virtually blocking the Strait of Hormuz, a key waterway for energy transit.

Since then, oil and gas prices have surged, and gasoline costs have risen in the world's biggest economy as well.

Steeper costs -- which have added pressure on households and businesses -- have in turn fueled fears of a broader inflation uptick, and an impact on consumer demand and growth.

Excluding gasoline stations, overall retail sales were up by just 0.6 percent on a month-on-month basis.

"The war-driven spike in gas prices drove the surge in headline retail sales in March," said economist Nancy Vanden Houten of Oxford Economics.

Beyond that, however, sales were likely boosted by "this year's surge in income tax refunds," she added in a note.

She warned: "The tailwind from a blockbuster refund season will fade soon, causing households to cut back on discretionary spending as energy costs remain high."

Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Northlight Asset Management, expects that further resilience in consumer spending would depend on the health of the jobs market.

Among other categories, sales at motor vehicles and parts dealers picked up by 0.5 percent from a month ago, while those at food and beverage stores climbed by 0.7 percent.

Load-shedding is expected to intensify in the coming days after a unit at Adani Power went offline early yesterday (22 April), slashing electricity imports by almost half and placing additional strain on an already stretched power system grappling with coal shortages and limited gas supply.

According to the Bangladesh Power Development Board (BPDB), a technical fault forced Unit-1 of the Adani Power plant to go offline at 1am yesterday, cutting electricity imports from roughly 1,500MW to 764MW.

The national grid remains under severe pressure as generation continues to fall short of the critical 15,000MW peak demand threshold.

Data from Power Grid Bangladesh shows that power generation reached only 13,198MW against a projected demand of 15,200MW at 1am yesterday.

The nearly 2,000MW deficit – aggravated by rising summer temperatures – mirrors a similar gap recorded last Monday and highlights the system's continuing struggle to stabilise supply.

The outages have disrupted industry and daily life, with rural communities facing the longest blackouts.

Load-shedding varies widely across regions, ranging from around 28% in Gazipur to more than 45% in Savar, while Sylhet is experiencing outages of about 40%. In many areas, electricity is going out several times a day for hours, with rural regions enduring outages lasting seven to ten hours.

BPDB chairman Md Rezaul Karim told The Business Standard the shutdown was caused by a bearing issue linked to the boiler's air preheater.

"Rising vibration in the air preheater bearing prompted the shutdown to prevent further damage," he said.

"Adani has informed us that it may take at least three to four days to bring Unit-1 back online," a BPDB official said.

Data from Power Grid Bangladesh shows that supply from Adani had already fallen to 1,109MW before the shutdown and dropped further to 764MW by 2am as only one unit remained operational.

Yesterday, peak demand during the day was projected at 15,450MW, while generation stood at only 13,112MW, leaving a shortfall of more than 2,338MW.

BPDB officials warned that the disruption in Adani supply could further widen the gap between demand and supply in the coming days.

April-May generation plan under strain

The BPDB had earlier planned to generate more than 17,500MW during April and May to meet peak summer demand. Under that plan, 5,600MW was expected to come from gas, 6,000MW from coal, 1,435MW from Adani Power, 3,500MW from liquid fuel and around 1,000MW through HVDC power imports.

Gas-fired plants – the backbone of Bangladesh's power system – are currently operating far below capacity due to gas shortages.

BPDB data shows gas supply to power plants stood at about 891.6 million cubic feet per day (mmcfd) on 21 April, producing between 4,600MW and 5,000MW of electricity.

Although installed gas-based capacity is around 11,000MW, actual generation rarely exceeds 5,000-5,100MW under current supply conditions.

Officials say that an additional 100-150mmcfd of gas could raise generation close to 6,000MW, but such an increase remains uncertain amid the continuing supply crisis.

Coal plants hit by supply shortage

Coal-fired power generation is also under pressure due to coal shortages. While the earlier plan aimed for 6,000MW from coal plants, actual output has remained far lower, hovering between 4,500MW and 4,600MW.

At 4pm yesterday, electricity generation from coal plants stood at 4,605MW.

The decline in output from the 1,320MW SS Power plant has also complicated efforts to manage load-shedding during the hot and humid days of April. The plant is currently operating below capacity because of a coal shortage, with one unit offline and another producing only about 300MW.

According to BPDB, SS Power is a reliable plant to meet summer demand, but coal shortage forced it to run under capacity. Officials said supply from the plant could improve next week after new coal shipments arrive, expected by Sunday.

One unit of the 1,320MW Patuakhali power plant is also operating below capacity, generating only about 300MW, while the second unit has yet to be commissioned.

Meanwhile, the 1,200MW Matarbari power plant is generating around 900-950MW.

Despite a plan to produce 3,500MW from liquid fuel-based plants, the BPDB has adopted a cautious approach to using furnace oil due to concerns over global fuel supply uncertainties.

Data from Power Grid Bangladesh shows that generation from heavy fuel oil (HFO) plants reached 2,944MW during the evening peak on 13 April.

Other sources and imports

Yesterday, the power generation mix included about 5,096MW from gas, 4,559MW from coal and around 900MW from furnace oil plants, along with smaller contributions from hydro, solar and wind.

Electricity imports included 922MW through HVDC links and 188MW from Tripura, in addition to about 751MW from the Adani plant after the disruption.

BPDB officials warned of a widening power deficit as shortages of gas and coal, coupled with the underutilisation of furnace oil-based plants, strain the grid.

With demand projected to climb in the coming weeks, officials further cautioned that outages could intensify nationwide unless fuel supplies stabilise and the Adani unit is swiftly restored to service.

The US-Israeli war with Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have caused the biggest oil supply disruption on record by daily output lost, though at least one earlier shock had a greater cumulative impact, according to Reuters calculations based on International Energy Agency and US Department of Energy data.

The IEA said on Tuesday that the conflict is the worst energy crisis the world has faced, when combined with the tail end of the European gas crisis caused ​by Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

The scale of the disruption has revived comparisons with past energy shocks, from the 1973 Arab oil embargo to the Iranian Revolution and the 1991 Gulf War, while underscoring how ‌much global energy markets have changed.

A DIFFERENT KIND OF ENERGY SHOCK

Unlike earlier crises, the Iran war has simultaneously hit crude, natural gas, refined fuel and fertiliser supplies, exposing new vulnerabilities created by decades of rising demand, deeper global trade links and the Middle East’s expanded role as a supplier of finished fuels.

Earlier energy shocks of the 1970s caused lasting economic damage, weakened governments and remain etched in the memory of citizens in industrialised nations such as the United States, which faced months of fuel supply shortages and queues at the gas pumps.

The IEA was established in the wake of the Arab ​oil embargo to advise industrialised countries on energy supply and security. The IEA also manages its members' emergency oil stocks and has responded to the crisis by releasing a record 400 million barrels from strategic stockpiles to stabilise oil ​prices and offset lost Middle Eastern supply.

HOW DOES THE CURRENT DISRUPTION COMPARE BY SCALE?

The peak supply loss from the current crisis stands at more than 12 million barrels per day, the IEA ⁠said earlier this month. That is equivalent to 11.5 percent of global oil demand, which this year is expected to average around 104.3 million bpd.

The outright daily supply loss is larger than earlier peak supply losses of 4.5 million bpd during the 1973-74 Arab ​oil embargo and of 5.6 million bpd during the Iranian Revolution in 1978-79 combined, the IEA said. It is also higher than the estimated peak supply losses of 4.3 million bpd during the 1991 Gulf War, the IEA said.

The Iran war has also triggered ​the shutdown of roughly a fifth of the world's liquefied natural gas production in Qatar. The world consumes much more gas than it did during the oil shocks of the 1970s-1990s. During the Arab oil embargo and the Iranian Revolution, the LNG industry was nascent. Qatar first exported LNG in 1996.

The current disruption also extends beyond crude and gas into fuel markets. The US-Israeli war on Iran has disrupted millions of barrels per day of fuel production and exports from refineries in the Gulf, triggering shortages of jet fuel and diesel. Huge refineries built inside the Gulf in recent decades ​are key to global fuel supplies. They send jet fuel to Africa, Europe and Asia, for example.

HOW DO DURATION AND LOSSES COMPARE WITH PAST SHOCKS?

The International Energy Agency did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment on how the current disruption ​compares with earlier energy shocks in terms of cumulative supply losses.

In the absence of official comparisons, Reuters assessed cumulative losses by calculating the scale and duration of major supply disruptions.

Based on that approach, the current conflict has lasted 52 days and removed an estimated 624 million barrels ‌from the market, ⁠assuming a loss of 12 million barrels per day over that period, according to Reuters calculations.

Even if a peace deal is reached quickly, supply disruptions are expected to persist for months and, in the case of gas, for years, pushing the final cumulative impact significantly higher.

The IEA says the 1978-79 Iranian Revolution resulted in a peak loss of 5.6 million bpd, smaller in scale than the current disruption. The revolution, however, led to a larger cumulative loss, according to Reuters calculations.

According to the US Department of Energy, the revolution caused an average drop of 3.9 million bpd in Iran's crude oil production from 1978 to 1981 - a loss of some 4.27 billion barrels over three years according to Reuters calculations - although the Energy Department says much of this loss was compensated by Iran's Gulf ​neighbours.

During this crisis, the countries with spare capacity - Saudi Arabia, the ​United Arab Emirates - have been unable to compensate - because ⁠they themselves have been hit by the halt in shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.

Oil journalist and author Ian Seymour estimates Iran pumped an average of 3.1 million bpd during 1979 compared to 6 million bpd in late 1978 - resulting in a cumulative loss of over 1 billion barrels in 1979 alone.

During the 1973-1974 Arab oil embargo, producers took three months to reach full production cuts ​of 4.5 million bpd. The embargo lasted from October 1973 to March 1974, resulting in around 530 million to 650 million barrels of lost production, according to Reuters calculations. That ​would mean the Arab oil embargo was ⁠comparable in its cumulative impact to the disruption caused by the US-Israeli war on Iran.

SHORTAGES IN ASIA, AFRICA

The current crisis has played out initially in shortages of supply to Asia and Africa. Top oil consumer the United States was much harder hit by the Arab oil embargo, which led to motorists enduring long lines for gasoline. The disruption lasted months and sparked an overhaul of energy policy and a rethinking of what constituted energy supply security.

The 1991 Gulf War, which disrupted oil output for four months according to a government document from ⁠IEA member Australia, resulted ​in a cumulative loss of at least 516 million barrels according to Reuters calculations assuming losses at 4.3 million bpd over that time, making the ​cumulative losses smaller than the current crisis and the Arab oil embargo.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 triggered a global energy crisis as European countries scrambled to reduce their dependence on Russian oil and gas.

Russian oil output declined by 9 percent in April 2022, according to the US Energy Information Administration, or roughly 1 million ​bpd and much smaller than the current disruption. Russia's output stabilised in later months as Moscow rerouted exports to counter Western sanctions, although in 2026 Ukrainian drone attacks are causing output cuts.