Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury has said that the government will not accept all the conditions of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in order to take loans.

"Decisions will be taken after safeguarding the interests of the country's people and businesses," he said while speaking with journalists at his office in the Secretariat today (19 April), after returning from the IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings.

Khosru stressed that the relationship with the IMF is not charitable but commercial.

He further said, "There are many ongoing discussions between the government of Bangladesh and the IMF and World Bank, and the issue is not only about the amount of money involved, which many people fail to understand."

He added that loan discussions with the IMF are ongoing and may continue for another 15 to 20 days, or even up to a month.

"We have not fully agreed with the IMF in the discussions. We are reviewing what the IMF is asking for, and we also have our own expectations. We are an elected government, and we will not accept everything just because someone asks us to," Khosru said.

The current government will not take any decision that creates pressure on the people or businesses, he added.

Khosru said discussions with the World Bank, Asian Development Bank (ADB), and Infrastructure Bank have already been completed.

He said the current IMF loan programme is not tied to the months of June or July.

"Many people do not understand this. The current IMF programme was taken under the previous Awami League government and includes many conditions. Its tenure is only seven months. Some of those conditions may not be acceptable to the current government."

"We will decide whether we will proceed with the next programme," Khosru added.

Responding to a journalist's comment that the introduction of the Family Card may have caused the IMF to step back or impose new conditions, the finance minister said there is no connection between the Family Card and IMF loans.

"On the contrary, the Family Card has been widely appreciated. It will help deliver the benefits of the economy to poor people."

When asked whether the increase in fuel prices was made to meet IMF conditions, he said fuel prices have increased globally.

"We are not the only ones who have increased prices. Everyone has asked why we are not increasing fuel prices. In Sri Lanka, fuel prices were increased by up to 25%."

He added, "If we do not increase fuel prices, pressure on the treasury increases, and with the upcoming budget, it is not easy to manage. So, we have increased it only as much as necessary. This has no relation with the IMF."

Asked whether inflation will rise, he said it may or may not increase. "The recent increase in fuel prices is temporary and not significant. Fuel has a small share in the inflation basket."

He further said representatives from the IMF, World Bank, ADB, Infrastructure Bank, and IDB will visit Bangladesh. "All of them want to work with the current government."

He added that their policies align with the government's election manifesto, so they are interested and supportive of cooperation.

Khosru also said that the presidents of the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank will visit Bangladesh.

The World Bank on Friday unveiled a new strategy aimed at helping small island states and other ​small countries better address unique challenges such as remoteness, exposure to shocks and a narrow economic base by ‌focusing firmly on jobs.

World Bank President Ajay Banga discussed the initiative at a closed-door gathering of ministers and central bank governors from 50 small countries held during the spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank.

He said the concept was aimed at using differentiated tools to help small ​states attract more private investment, carry out policy and regulatory reforms to make it easier for businesses to operate ​and grow, and ultimately create more jobs.

It will focus on areas such as health, affordable energy, resilient ⁠infrastructure and micro- and small businesses where Bank officials see the greatest opportunities to boost growth, strengthen businesses, and create more and better jobs.

The World Bank Group last year approved a record $3.3 billion in new commitments and guarantees for small states, which face unique economic challenges and are disproportionately affected by shocks, as seen during the war in the Middle East.

"For small businesses, a single hurricane, a sudden surge in imported fuel prices, or a downturn in tourism can undo months of investment and income in a matter of days," the bank said in a blog released with the new strategy.

Banga said the Bank will take a differentiated approach to shape the regional projects it pursues in such countries, and partnerships would be a big component.

"This is not a one-size-fits-all approach. Small states are diverse, and our support will ‌reflect that," ⁠Banga told the finance officials. "We also know the economics are different."

He noted that working in small states costs up to four times more than in larger countries, so the Bank planned to streamline delivery of its services, use more flexible financing and scale solutions to make the most of each dollar.

Some projects are already underway.

In Tonga, for example, the bank will co-finance an urban resilience project with the Asian Development Bank under a mutual reliance ⁠framework agreement, a first-of-its-kind agreement between multilateral development banks.

Banga said more such agreements were planned, including one with the Inter-American Development Bank to expand the approach to the Caribbean. The World Bank was also expanding the tools available to countries, he said.

Better diagnostics were also important, the bank said. ⁠Deeper reports studying the constraints to private-sector–led hiring were underway for Barbados, Guinea-Bissau, Lesotho, Mauritius, Samoa, and Seychelles.

The World Bank could also leverage its power to help drive investments, the blog noted.

For instance, the International Finance Corp, the bank's investment arm, helped fund ⁠development of Botswana's first utility-scale solar project, while the World Bank worked on a parallel project on battery storage to enable the integration of solar projects into the grid.

"The result is not only a solar plant, but a replicable model for how unlocking private finance can open markets and create jobs," the bank said in its blog.

Bangladesh's bond investors are caught in a prolonged limbo, facing stalled coupon payments and expired tenures without redemption, while recovery efforts often drag on for years, typically starting only after the issuers collapse.

The crisis has exposed weak enforcement, delayed legal action and regulatory blind spots, eroding confidence in what was once promoted as a safer investment alternative.

Corporate bonds were marketed as a middle ground between volatile equities and low-yield bank deposits – offering predictable coupons, fixed maturities and asset-backed security. Mutual funds, banks, state-owned institutions and other institutional investors poured money into these instruments on the assumption that risks were limited and well regulated.

That assumption has increasingly proved misplaced.

One of the most telling cases is Regent Spinning Mills, a concern of the now-defunct Chattogram-based Habib Group. In 2015, Regent raised Tk200 crore through a five-year corporate bond to finance expansion. The bond matured in 2020, but investors, including RACE Asset Management and trustee Investment Corporation of Bangladesh (ICB), are still struggling to recover their funds.

Although Regent was formally declared in default in June 2020, legal action to recover the money was initiated only in August 2024. By then, the Habib Group had unravelled: factories were shuttered, Regent Airways grounded and key directors had fled the country amid multiple cases and arrest warrants.

A similar pattern is emerging in Beximco's Green Sukuk Al Istisna'a, where 94% of the five-year sukuk remains unpaid even as its maturity approaches in December 2026. The trustee has proposed extending the tenure by another five years, effectively locking investors in for a decade.

Earlier, a senior Beximco official, requesting anonymity, said that in light of the group's setbacks after 5 August 2024, repaying the principal by 2026 is "not possible", although a five-year extension could make full repayment feasible.

Beximco's owner, Salman F Rahman, remains in jail facing multiple cases, but the company is still paying profit instalments to Sukuk investors.

ICB is also yet to recover Tk325 crore invested in Sea Pearl Beach Resort & Spa's convertible bond, despite collateral backing and an eight-year tenure that is nearing its end.

While corporate bond failures highlight issuer weakness and sluggish trustee action, a separate – and potentially more systemic – risk has surfaced in bank-issued subordinated bonds. These instruments, though governed by similar regulations, are fundamentally different: they are designed to absorb losses in times of stress.

In practice, however, prolonged non-payment and regulatory ambiguity following bank mergers have frozen more than Tk4,000 crore of institutional funds.

Abu Ahmed, chairman of ICB and a former economics professor at Dhaka University, said bonds often appear risk-free because they are backed by collateral. "However, private corporate bonds are not always risk-free, and investors should keep this in mind," he told The Business Standard.

Failure to repay interest or principal, he added, primarily hurts institutional investors and weakens their balance sheets. "Regulators should take measures against defaulters to protect investors' interests."

Market participants said weak enforcement has prevented the bond market from maturing. Shahidul Islam, CEO of VIPB Asset Management, said delayed coupon payments and non-repayment of principal are the main reasons the market has failed to gain depth or credibility.

"The regulator approved bonds despite knowing the issuer's weak financial condition. Approving Beximco's Tk3,000 crore bond despite its default history is a regulatory failure," he said, recalling that Beximco's debentures in the 1990s had also defaulted.

Shahidul argued that poor financial disclosure is another major constraint. "Without credible financial reporting, it is impossible to assess an institution's real condition. Regulators must be stricter so reports reflect reality," he said, adding that only financially transparent institutions should be allowed to issue bonds.

Market growth, hidden risks

According to the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC), the current commission – reformed after the change of government in August 2024 – has allowed 24 firms, including banks, to raise Tk14,000 crore to meet regulatory capital requirements and for business expansion.

Before that, the previous commission had approved around Tk41,000 crore in bond fundraising. At present, 16 bonds are listed on the stock exchange, with a combined market capitalisation of Tk3,334 crore as of June 2025.

Of the Tk41,000 crore approved, the banking sector accounted for the largest share at Tk27,350 crore, followed by manufacturing with Tk6,600 crore. Financial institutions were approved to raise Tk2,100 crore, while NGOs received approval for Tk2,000 crore, with Green Sukuk bonds alone amounting to Tk3,000 crore.

BSEC data also show that City Sugar Mill, Akij Food and Beverage, CDIP, Sajida Foundation, Mir Akhter Hossain Limited, Runner Auto, Pran Agro and Envoy Textile have raised funds from the capital market through bonds.

Yet despite widespread defaults in coupon and principal repayments, there is currently no comprehensive database of defaulters at the regulator's end.

Ahsan H Mansur, the previous governor of Bangladesh Bank, at a seminar on 28 January said lack of investor confidence remains the biggest obstacle to developing Bangladesh's corporate bond market, and restoring trust requires strict regulatory action against issuers who fail to honour coupon payments.

Without restoring investor trust, any attempt to deepen the bond market would be futile, he said, pointing out that weak enforcement of rules has badly damaged confidence, particularly in cases where issuers have failed to pay bond coupons without facing consequences.

In developed markets, he said, even a single missed coupon payment is treated as a serious default that triggers regulatory action and reputational damage. "But in our country, there is hardly any consequence if a company fails to pay bond coupons. No one seems to care."

Regulator shifts responsibility to trustees

BSEC spokesperson Abul Kalam told TBS that if any bond issuer defaults, meaning it fails to make coupon payments or repay the principal, the trustee must inform the commission.

"The trustee is responsible for overseeing whether coupon payments and principal redemptions are being made properly. If any legal proceedings or liquidation become necessary, the trustee will notify the commission, and the commission will then take necessary actions," he said.

Asked specifically about the Regent Spinning Mills default, Abul Kalam said, "It is the trustee's responsibility to take initiative. If any assistance is required, the commission will take action and provide support in accordance with the law."

He added, "At present, the commission has taken an initiative to create a database of bond defaulters, similar to the CIB database."

Regent Spinning fallout

Regent Spinning floated a Tk200 crore corporate bond in 2015, approved by the BSEC in May that year. ICB was appointed as trustee. Several institutional investors, including ICB itself and RACE, invested.

RACE allocated Tk150 crore, or 75% of the total bond amount. In June 2020, the trustee identified Regent as a defaulter. Investors stopped receiving coupons, and RACE was required to make accounting provisions against the investment.

In a written comment to TBS, Regent said it was a core subsidiary of Habib Group, which once ranked among Bangladesh's most influential conglomerates.

"In the initial years following the bond issuance, the group maintained its financial obligations and paid out coupons to investors regularly. However, the conglomerate eventually suffered a historic financial collapse that extended far beyond a single bond default," the company said.

The fallout was severe, with Regent Airways grounded, factories shut and top directors fleeing the country to avoid legal cases and arrest warrants.

"Today, many of the remaining assets of the Habib Group are subject to court-ordered liquidation processes as part of the effort to settle outstanding debts with various creditors and bondholders," the company said.

Despite being declared in default in June 2020, ICB only filed a recovery suit in August 2024, four years later. By then, the issuer's financial position had deteriorated sharply.

Seeking anonymity, an ICB trustee division official said, "To protect the investors' funds poured into the bond, ICB initiated legal proceedings and filed a suit, which is pending in court."

Sea Pearl convertible bond

In 2017, Sea Pearl raised Tk325 crore through a 20% convertible bond, fully subscribed by ICB. The bond was backed by mortgages on hotel properties and equipment and was issued to repay debts and complete the Sea Pearl Beach Resort & Spa in Cox's Bazar.

It had an eight-year tenure, including a two-year moratorium, and carried a 10% coupon. Green Delta Insurance was the trustee.

After the moratorium, repayments were to begin in April 2020. But citing the pandemic's impact, the company failed to pay and repeatedly sought waivers.

Managing Director Md Aminul Islam did not respond to calls.

Subordinated bonds: Money stuck

In the banking sector, Tk4,010 crore in subordinated bonds issued by four Shariah-based banks – Exim Bank, Social Islami Bank, Union Bank and First Security Islami Bank – remain effectively frozen following mergers and restructuring.

Exim Bank alone accounts for Tk1,890 crore.

Bangladesh Bank spokesperson Arif Hossain Khan said investors would "eventually" receive their principal, though he acknowledged it could take time – offering little clarity on timelines or interim compensation.

All investment-related services in Bangladesh will be brought under a single digital platform called BanglaBiz after 2030, a senior Bida official said yesterday at a memorandum of understanding signing ceremony with five private banks at Bida Bhaban.

Jibon Krishna Saha Roy, director general (investment promotion) of the Bangladesh Investment Development Authority (Bida), said, "We are calling it the Bangladesh Investment Portal. After 2030, there will be no separate portal – only one platform, BanglaBiz."

He said existing one-stop service (OSS) portals will be gradually integrated into the platform.

Bida, in partnership with the Japan International Cooperation Agency (Jica), also unveiled new features of BanglaBiz. The first version was launched on 28 September 2025 as an information portal linking OSS systems of Bida, Beza, Bepza, BHTPA and BSCIC.

Bida executive member Air Commodore Md Shaharul Huda said BanglaBiz is not limited to Bida. "OSS of all investment-related authorities will be connected to this platform. Services already integrated into Bida's OSS will also be transferred soon," he said.

He added that Bida is continuously upgrading the OSS system to ensure faster and more modern services for investors.

The five banks joining the initiative are NCC Bank PLC, One Bank PLC, United Commercial Bank PLC, Shimanto Bank PLC and Al-Arafah Islami Bank PLC.

Under the agreement, investors will be able to open bank accounts online through the OSS portal, including temporary accounts for foreign investors.

Bida said its OSS platform currently offers 142 services and is integrated with 47 agencies. So far, more than 215,000 applications have been processed.

The authority has signed 68 MoUs with service providers and plans to expand OSS coverage to over 150 services across 60 institutions.

It is also working to develop BanglaBiz as a unified digital platform based on a "one-time information" principle for investors.

Inflow of remittances witnessed a year-on-year growth of 16.2 percent reaching US$1,968 million in the first 18 days of April, according to the latest data of Bangladesh Bank (BB) issued today (Sunday).

Last year, during the same period, the country's remittance inflow was $1,694 million, BSS reports.

During the July to April 18, 2026 of the current fiscal year, expatriates sent remittances of $28,177 million, which was $23,479 million during the same period of the previous fiscal year.

The safe-haven US dollar dropped ​to multi-week lows on Friday as risk appetite soared after Iran said the Strait of Hormuz is open, boosting optimism that the Middle East ‌conflict is winding down.

In afternoon trading, the dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of six currencies, fell 0.3 percent to 97.96 after earlier ​dropping to 97.632, its lowest in seven weeks.The index was down 0.6 percent on the week, set for a second straight weekly decline. Over the past two weeks, ​it has fallen about 2.1 percent, its largest two-week drop since late January.

“The dollar’s weakness is mainly about the market unwinding the geopolitical risk premium,” said George Vessey, lead FX and macro strategist at Convera in London. “I don’t think we are pricing in a fundamentally weaker US dollar because there are question marks around the Federal Reserve, what’s the Fed’s next move ​is going to be after inflation came out hotter than expected.

So the economy is still somewhat resilient so it’s not going to be the start ​of a full structural dollar decline.”

BOJ LIKELY TO HOLD RATES THROUGH JUNE

Against the Japanese yen , the dollar slid 0.6 percent to 158.22 after earlier climbing to 159.86. It was on track ‌to post ⁠its largest weekly drop in nine weeks.

It will take about two years to recover the energy ​output lost in the Middle East from the ‌conflict there, Fatih Birol, the head of the International Energy Agency, was quoted as saying on Friday in an interview with ​the Neue Zuercher Zeitung newspaper.

"That will vary ​from country to country. In Iraq, for example, ⁠it will take much longer than in Saudi Arabia. ​However, we estimate it will take approximately two years ​overall to reach pre-war levels again," Birol told the Swiss newspaper.

Birol added that the market was underestimating the consequences of a ​prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Shipments of oil ​and gas that were already en route to their destinations before ‌the ⁠war in Iran began have now arrived, mitigating the impact of shortages, he said.

"But no new tankers were loaded in March. There were no new deliveries of ​oil, gas ​or fuels to ⁠Asian markets. This gap is now becoming apparent. If the Strait of Hormuz ​is not reopened, we must prepare for ​significantly higher ⁠energy prices."

Asked whether the IEA could carry out another release of emergency oil reserves after its March move, ⁠Birol ​said the agency was ready to ​act immediately and decisively.

"We're not there yet, but it's definitely under ​consideration," Birol said.

Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce and Industry (MCCI) President Kamran T Rahman today (19 April) called for a "supportive and growth-oriented" national budget for fiscal year 2026-27, warning that businesses, particularly small and medium enterprises, are under severe strain from high inflation, sluggish investment, elevated interest rates and foreign exchange pressure.

Speaking at a seminar of MCCI and the Economic Reporters' Forum (ERF) on budget priorities, he said the upcoming budget must be balanced and realistic, arguing that a sensible tax policy can simultaneously boost revenue, encourage investment and generate employment rather than punish businesses further.

Kamran proposed full integration of the National Identity (NID) and Tax Identification Number (TIN) databases to expand the tax net, noting that though over one crore taxpayers hold TINs, fewer than half file returns.

He also recommended introducing a symbolic minimum tax to bring new taxpayers into the fold and simplifying return filing through mobile applications.

The MCCI chief urged the government to reconsider conditions tied to corporate tax benefits, especially restrictions on cash transactions.

He further suggested cutting tax rates for both listed and non-listed companies by an additional 2.5% to stimulate investment.

Kamran proposed a unified taxpayer profile covering income tax, VAT and customs to reduce administrative complexity and harassment, along with online hearings and digital notices to cut time and cost for businesses.

On VAT and customs, he urged simpler procedures, transaction-based valuation, stronger automation, and allowing quantity disclosure instead of value in some VAT forms to protect confidentiality.

The MCCI President called for special policy support for SMEs, including separate tax treatment, input tax credit facilities and reduced duty and VAT on raw materials.

Comprehensive reform roadmap presented

Md Shahadat Hossain, former President of the Institute of Chartered Accountants of Bangladesh, presented policy recommendations in a paper titled "National Budget 2026–2027: Private Sector Priorities & Perspectives," outlining reforms in corporate tax, VAT, customs and capital markets.

He said the budget should go beyond revenue and spending to serve as a broader policy framework for growth, investment, jobs and inflation control.

Shahadat flagged Bangladesh's tax-to-GDP ratio hovering between 6.5% and 7.3% in FY2024-25 as among the lowest globally, well below the 15% threshold considered necessary for sustainable development.

The Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce and Industry (MCCI) today urged the government to cut turnover tax on gross receipts to 0.3 percent from 1 percent, saying the existing regime burdens businesses and distorts the tax framework.

The chamber pointed to mismatches between tax deducted at source (TDS), taxes on gross receipts and final corporate tax liabilities, which it said raise compliance costs, strain cash flow and risk double taxation.

“To remove these distortions, tax rates across different stages need to be rationalised and aligned with business realities,” MCCI said.

The proposal was placed at a pre-budget seminar in Dhaka for fiscal year 2026-27, jointly organised by MCCI and the Economic Reporters Forum.

It also proposed setting TDS on export proceeds at 0.50 percent to improve competitiveness amid uncertain global trade conditions, adding that advance deductions erode exporters’ working capital.

At the import stage, MCCI recommended reducing tax collection at source to 3 percent from 5 percent to ease costs for raw materials and capital machinery, supporting industrial production and investment.

For domestic transactions, it suggested a flexible TDS range of 1–3 percent on supply, depending on transaction type and risk profile, and fixing TDS on packing materials at 3 percent for clarity.

The chamber also called for resolving refund complications by issuing “No TDS” certificates until refundable amounts are fully adjusted to ease cash flow and cut delays.

At the event, Kamran T Rahman, president of MCCI, said businesses face mounting pressure from high inflation, elevated interest rates and foreign exchange constraints, with small and medium enterprises hit hardest.

He urged a supportive budget to lower business costs, encourage investment and restore private sector confidence, stressing the need for coordinated policy action to stabilise the economy and sustain growth.

IMF economists warned Thursday that the war in Iran could have “very, certainly severe” consequences far outside the region – especially for energy-importing countries.

Countries in East Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa are among the countries most affected now -- and who could suffer the most -- outside the region, as the conflict stretches on.

Ironically, the ongoing virtual closure of the Strait of Hormuz -- through which about one-fifth of the world's oil and gas passes -- has been a windfall for some petroleum-exporting nations, like Nigeria or Algeria.

But for those that rely on imports for food, fertilizer, and energy, the elevated prices are proving worrisome.

"Oil impacted importers, particularly non-resource-rich and fragile states, face deteriorating trade balances, rising living costs and limited buffers" to absorb future shocks," warned Abebe Selassie, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Director for Africa, at a press conference Thursday.

"The human consequences are almost certain to be severe," he added.

IMF economists are briefing government officials and media on their latest economic analysis as they hold their spring meetings alongside the World Bank this week in Washington.

HITTING THE MOST VULNERABLE

Sub-Saharan Africa -- which for IMF statistical purposes does not include Sudan and parts of the Horn of Africa -- could see 20 million people pushed towards hunger, an IMF report said.

For Sahel countries, where poverty is widespread, factors that are expected to drive up the cost of food include scarce, expensive fertilizer and rising transportation costs.

"Already transportation costs are very high for people in urban areas, rural areas even more so," Selassie explained. "We are already seeing quite a bit of a pinch from the crisis on people, impoverishing people -- it's making life difficult for people."

The economic effects of the crisis hit at a time when international aid is in steep decline, another source of concern for the IMF.

The aid declines aren't a temporary ebb, but are "more structural," Selassie said. "It is falling hardest on the region's most vulnerable countries -- fragile states and low-income economies -- that depend on aid, not as a supplement but as a critical source of budget financing for healthcare and food assistance."

HEAVY OIL RELIANCE

Further afield, small Pacific islands are of great concern, said the IMF's Asia-Pacific Director Krishna Srinivasan, due to their heavy reliance energy imports and the amount of time it takes ships to reach them -- even when shipping disruptions are minimal.

Zooming out, the entire region -- not just small islands -- faces unique risks because it spends almost double what Europe does on oil and gas, as a percent of GDP.

Some countries, such as Malaysia and Thailand spend around 10 percent of their GDP on oil and gas -- a sign of how reliant they are on energy imports.

DOWNGRADES LIKE 2008

None of this is to downplay the effects in the Middle East, where the IMF's regional director, Jihad Azour, told reporters that their updated estimates of economic activity are "among the largest six-month downgrades to regional growth projections we have made since the global financial crisis."

Markets are now demanding higher interest rates across the board, further driving up the cost of borrowing for countries in the region that were already facing difficulties.

Here again, food is a pressure issue, especially in the region's poorest.

"Food items already account for 45 to 50 percent of total imports in Yemen, Sudan, Somalia and more than half of their population are already experiencing food insecurity," Azour said.

So what's to be done?

IMF officials have repeated the same mantra all week: governments should adopt only temporary, limited measures to avoid further stretching already thin budgets.

Food production, trade and transportation costs may increase further on fuel-price hike by Tk 15-20 per litre in Bangladesh amid an exigent global crunch.
Bangladesh uses about 4.35 million tonnes of diesel annually, and around 24 per cent of it is used in agriculture. About 80 per cent of irrigation depends on this fuel oil. It is also needed for land preparation, harvesting, threshing, and transporting crops.
On Saturday, the government increased diesel price from Tk 100 to Tk 115 per litre, octane Tk 140, up from Tk 120, petrol Tk 135, up from Tk 116, and kerosene Tk 130 in a rise from Tk 112.
Economists, agriculturists and businesspeople are concerned about domino effect of the fuel-price rises across a spectrum of economic activities, price indices and trade and transport.
Agro economists say farmers may have to spend around Tk 18 billion more per year on diesel for farming.
"This will create pressure in two ways. First, higher production costs will make it harder for farmers to get fair prices. Second, food prices on the market may go up, increasing the cost of living, especially for low-income people," says former Bangladesh Agricultural Research Council (BARC) executive chairman Dr Wais Kabir.
He says Boro is now being harvested, so irrigation needs are lower. "However, costs for harvesting, threshing, and transport will increase due to higher fuel prices."
He notes that fuel-price hikes affect all sectors and will increase farmers' costs significantly, which may lead to higher rice prices.
Agricultural economist Prof Dr Rashidul Hasan says farmers are worried about reduced profits. Paddy prices are already low due to imports from India, and farmers are unsure about getting good prices for Boro.
"The fuel-price hike has made the situation worse."
Data show about 55 per cent of the country's rice comes from Boro cropping which depends fully on irrigation.
There are around 1.9 million agricultural machines in the country in the process of mechanization of agriculture, about 75 per cent of which run on diesel.
Prof Hasan feels ensuring diesel supply and providing subsidies are important to support farmers.
Group Director of TK Group Mohammad Mostafa Haider says the impact of fuel-price hikes on product prices cannot be measured immediately.Bangladesh market report
He notes that global oil-and raw-material prices have already increased, along with transport costs.
As such, the businessman says, many product prices have already been adjusted. However, he believes transport fares should not increase again if fuel supply improves, as fares already went up earlier due to shortages.
And, in the meantime, transporters and the government authority concerned were in a meeting on Sunday night with a proposal on the table for bus-fare hike, too.
Recent data from the Trading Corporation of Bangladesh and the Department of Agricultural Marketing show prices of vegetables, edible oils, fish, and poultry on an upturn over the past two weeks.
Traders say truck and pickup-van fares for goods have already increased 15-20 per cent due to fuel shortages in many places.
Meanwhile, the fuel price hike has affected the transport sector as a whole.
The Fare Adjustment Committee under the Bangladesh Road Transport Authority met to discuss new bus fares for city and long routes on Sunday evening. The meeting ended inconclusively. The meeting discussed an increase of Tk 0.22 in fare per kilometre. However, the meeting resumes today.
Although buses charged regular fares on the first day, operators demanded fare increases to make up for higher fuel costs and earlier losses during the fuel crisis.
Some ride-sharing services also charged up to 50-percent higher fares on Sunday, citing fuel shortages and higher costs.
However, the Passenger Welfare Association of Bangladesh opposes fare hikes without fair representation of commuters in the decision-making process. They say fare decisions were previously "influenced by interest groups".
Water-transport operators have also demanded a 36-42-percent increase in launch fares, saying that their operating costs have risen sharply.
Currently, bus fares are Tk 2.12 per km for long-haul run and Tk 2.42 for city routes. Launch fares may also increase if the proposals get through.
Commuters have expressed concern about possible fare hikes, though many say they paid normal fares on the first day after the fuel-price increase.
Transport owners' leaders say fare adjustment is necessary after the fuel-price hike, while commuters argue that fares were not properly reduced when fuel prices fell in 2024.
Leaders of the country's apparel sector Sunday demanded uninterrupted supply of fuels amid the price hike and adjustment of the rate on a regular basis.
Economists term the decision 'good', suggesting regular price adjustment in line with global price indices.
Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA) president Mahmud Hasan Khan, in an immediate reaction, says, "So far I know, the government has raised the fuel prices in line the understanding with the IMF."
He says the price must be adjusted on a regular monthly basis according to the global price indices, adding that 'adjustment means not only to raise the price but also reduce when global prices fall."
He, however, stresses that factories should get the fuel uninterruptedly as price hike will surely increase the production cost which for many reasons is on the rise.
Citing a rise in global market rates, the government Saturday increased fuel-oil prices at the retail level by Tk 15 to Tk 20 per litre.
Under the new pricing structure, diesel has been fixed at Tk 115 per litre, octane at Tk 140, petrol at Tk 135, and kerosene at Tk 130 per litre.
Talking to The Financial Express, Khan Monirul Alam, Managing Director of Fashion.Com, says his factory located at Ashulia faces five to six hours of load shedding daily.
To run two factories-medium in size--he needs 1200-litre diesel daily to operate generators during the electricity outage.
Due to the 15-percent hike in diesel prices, he will have to bear an additional financial cost of Tk 0.4 million to Tk 0.5 million monthly.
"As the generators are for backup supports and they also have a limited capacity, the machines are overheated, posing risk of possible accident," he says explaining the current situation.
Mr Alam says majority of the factories in the export industry have generators as alternative supports.
Echoing the BGMEA leader, Bangladesh Knitwear Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BKMEA) president Mohammad Hatem says there is no denying the fact that production cost will increase. "But the main problem is that we are not getting fuel."
"Last government increased prices of gas several times but we did not get the adequate supply of gas," he laments.
Talking to the FE, Bangladesh Institute of Bank Management (BIBM) director-general Dr Md Ezazul Islam says the latest fuel-price hike will fuel the inflation rate which has been on the higher side.
If the government does not raise the prices of fuel, it has to subsidize, which will put a negative impact on revenue policy, he says about a double bind.
Terming the raise 'good', he says the government also needs to adjust the fuel prices every month with the international market trends-reducing the rate when prices go down globally.
Distinguished fellow of CPD Prof Mustafizur Rahman says the price hike is made at a time when the government has to buy fuels at high rates amid uncertainties.
"It would affect most the direct users like transport, manufacturing and consumers," he says, adding that the government has to monitor the market strictly so that bus fare and other transportation price do not rise disproportionately but reasonably.
He also suggests strengthening the social-safety net to help low-and fixed-income groups who are already under pressure due to higher inflation.
Power, Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Iqbal Hassan Mahmood and State Minister Aninda Islam Amit met Prime Minister Tarique Rahman at the Secretariat on Sunday and briefed him on the country's fuel situation.
"They met the Prime Minister at his office at the Secretariat and informed him of the latest fuel situation," said Prime Minister's Additional Press Secretary Atikur Rahman Rumon.
After the meeting, the Energy Minister told waiting journalists that the government had no alternative but to hike the prices as fuel imports require foreign currency, and the adjustment was necessary to keep the situation at a tolerable level.

Bangladesh Lamps, widely known as BD Lamps, posted more than 11% year-on-year revenue growth in the first nine months of the current fiscal year, driven by higher sales of energy-saving LED tube lights and electrical accessories, according to its quarterly financials as of March.

Despite the rise in revenue, the company reported a loss of Tk87 lakh for the July-March period, with a loss per share of Tk0.83 – a sharp improvement from the same period a year earlier, when it incurred a loss of Tk5.74 crore and a loss per share of Tk5.46.

The company said its earnings position improved significantly compared with the corresponding period of the previous year, "primarily driven by an 11.3% growth in revenue and an 8.9% reduction in operating expenses".

The financial statements were approved at a board meeting held on Thursday and published on the stock exchange website today (19 April).

BD Lamps reported a revenue growth of Tk153.81 crore for the nine-month period, up from Tk138.23 crore a year earlier.

According to the report, most of the revenue came from the sale of energy-saving LED bulbs, which contributed Tk56.25 crore, slightly down from Tk56.67 crore in the same period last year.

Electrical accessories generated Tk47.78 crore, marking a 40% year-on-year increase, while sales of energy-saving tube lights rose 18% to Tk43.58 crore. In contrast, revenue from electric bulbs fell to Tk6.20 crore.

Jan-Mar financials

In the January-March quarter, BD Lamps reported revenue of Tk51 crore, a 6% increase from Tk48.32 crore in the same quarter of the previous fiscal year.

The company posted a profit of Tk27 lakh for the quarter, with earnings per share of Tk0.26, up from a profit of Tk11 lakh and EPS of Tk0.11 a year earlier.

For the full fiscal year 2024-25, BD Lamps recorded revenue of Tk188.47 crore, compared with Tk173.29 crore in the previous year, reflecting an 8.76% growth.

However, the company said it suffered a significant loss of Tk5.88 crore in the first quarter of FY25, mainly due to the July uprising in 2024. "As a result, we could not achieve our targeted sales, which affected overall profitability," it said in its annual report.

For the year, BD Lamps posted a net loss of Tk6.55 crore, narrowing from Tk13.43 crore in the previous year.

The company also noted that a new statutory regulatory order (SRO) issued in the national budget in May 2025 increased duties from an average of 10% to 28%, further affecting profitability.

To comply with the new requirements, BD Lamps has committed to investing nearly Tk10 crore in moulds and machinery to set up in-house production facilities for plastic and metal components used in switch sockets and lighting products.

The company expects this move to reduce duties back to an average of 10%, supporting profitability in the coming years.

BD Lamps declared a 10% cash dividend for its shareholders for FY25.

The World Bank-IMF Spring Meetings ended with more questions than answers for Bangladesh. There was no firm signal on the size or timing of external financing, no breakthrough on the stalled IMF programme, and no assurance that the expected $3.2 billion in budget support from the World Bank, ADB, AIIB, and Japan can be mobilised within the government's timeline. At a moment when tensions in the Strait of Hormuz are already unsettling global energy and freight markets, this ambiguity could not have come at a worse time.

Yet the government's post-Meeting narrative has been one of calm continuity. Officials insist the IMF programme is not off the table and that external financing will materialise once routine discussions conclude in the coming months. This confidence, however, sits uneasily alongside the fiscal choices now on the table: a record Tk9.3 trillion budget built on an ambitious revenue target that keeps the deficit deceptively modest as a share of GDP. The implicit message is that adjustment can wait – even as the global environment grows more hostile.

That assumption is increasingly difficult to sustain. Bangladesh sits at the wrong end of every transmission channel emanating from the Strait of Hormuz. Even a partial disruption pushes up oil prices, inflating the import bill and expanding subsidy requirements. Disruptions to Saudi and Qatari urea shipments raise fertilizer costs and threaten agricultural cycles. War-risk premiums on Gulf shipping routes increase freight costs for an import-dependent manufacturing base. Each additional dollar spent on fuel, fertiliser, and freight becomes a direct drawdown on already strained foreign exchange reserves.

Crucially, these pressures are not temporary. Even if the conflict were to de-escalate quickly, the lagged effects on prices, supply chains, and risk premiums are likely to persist for months. This is a shock that compounds over time – and it is arriving just as Bangladesh's policy credibility is beginning to fray.

The deeper problem is that the pressure is no longer one-sided. Bangladesh today finds itself caught between a shock it cannot control and policies it has been slow to adjust. The global environment is tightening from one end; policy inertia is tightening from the other. The result is a narrowing policy space – an economy squeezed from both directions.

This is why the stalled IMF programme matters far beyond its immediate financing value. Without an active IMF programme, Bangladesh loses more than access to disbursements – it loses its credibility anchor. And without that anchor, budget support from other multilaterals becomes harder to unlock, with IMF endorsement now effectively the gatekeeper of macroeconomic confidence. If these flows do not materialise, the consequences are immediate: a wider external financing gap, sharper import compression, rising inflation, and further pressure on reserves.

It is also important to recognise the constraints under which the current government is operating. Barely two months into office, it has been forced to navigate a fragile macroeconomic landscape while confronting a global shock that intensified within days of assuming power. Under such conditions, delays in advancing reforms are understandable.

What is harder to justify, however, is not inertia but reversal. The issue is not that reforms have yet to move forward – it is that some have not yet moved backward. The reintroduction of discretion in petroleum pricing, renewed exchange-rate management despite commitments to a market-based regime, and amendments to the bank resolution framework that reopen the door to previously discredited owners all signal a retreat from earlier reform commitments. Meanwhile, larger structural measures – particularly in tax and financial sector reform – remain stalled.

This mix of reversal and inertia creates a credibility problem at precisely the wrong moment. Backtracking signals unreliability; delays signal a lack of urgency. Together, they raise doubts about the government's willingness to adjust, keeping external financing on hold while the global shock intensifies.

The adjustment path itself is not complicated – but it is politically difficult. It begins with restoring exchange-rate credibility, because without that, reserves cannot be rebuilt and external balances cannot stabilise. It requires aligning interest-rate policy with genuine monetary tightening to contain inflation. It demands a shift in fiscal policy from expansionary optimism to targeted consolidation – anchored in realistic revenue expectations, rationalised subsidies, and prioritised expenditure. And it necessitates moving forward on long-delayed structural reforms, from tax administration and banking sector cleanup to energy pricing, port management, and state-owned enterprise governance.

Ultimately, macroeconomic adjustment is never neutral. When policy delays persist, the burden does not disappear – it shifts. Import compression translates into raw-material shortages for industry. A defended exchange rate erodes export competitiveness while diverting remittances into informal channels. Delayed energy pricing reforms inflate subsidies, crowding out social spending. In the absence of timely policy action, adjustment takes place through even higher inflation, stricter and more chaotic rationing, and slower growth – mechanisms that disproportionately affect those least able to absorb the shock.

Bangladesh is now operating in a dangerously exposed position: caught between a volatile global environment, a stalled IMF programme, and a fiscal stance that assumes the storm will pass. But the world is tightening, not easing. External conditions are becoming less forgiving, not more.

The government may have had limited time – but the direction of travel is already visible.

The war delivered the shock, but the distribution of pain is being decided at home. Without timely and credible reforms, the burden of adjustment will not be shared evenly – it will cascade downward, onto households, workers, and small businesses. That is the real cost of delay: not just macroeconomic strain, but a quieter, more unequal adjustment that unfolds as policy continues to look the other way.

A day after hiking fuel prices, the government has announced a 10-20% increase in diesel, octane and petrol supplies from today to ease the shortages that kept motorists waiting in long queues for hours in Dhaka and elsewhere as of yesterday.

In a notification last night, the Energy Division said the distribution companies under the Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation (BPC) will sell 13,048 tonnes of diesel, 1,422 tonnes of octane and 1,511 tonnes of petrol per day from 20 April. This marks a 10% increase for diesel and petrol, and 20% for octane.

"Considering the present demand for fuel oils, companies under the BPC have been instructed to sell at the increased rates to keep up the supplies at dealers' and consumers' levels," reads the notification.

The government raised the price of octane by Tk20 per litre, petrol by Tk19 and diesel by Tk15, effective from yesterday.

Earlier in parliament yesterday, Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Iqbal Hasan Mahmud Tuku blamed panic buying, stockpiling and black market activity for the shortages at filling stations.

He said there is no shortage of fuel in the country, but that an artificial crisis is being created.

Despite a sharp increase in fuel prices aimed at reducing the subsidy burden, motorists across Bangladesh continued to face long queues at filling stations and shortages yesterday, with no sign of an improvement in supply.

Many motorists had expected the price increase to be followed by higher supplies from depots to petrol stations, easing the shortages that have persisted for weeks. Instead, the situation remained largely unchanged.

Drivers and motorcyclists in Dhaka and elsewhere in the country were still waiting for hours at filling stations to obtain fuel.

At some filling stations, motorcyclists who joined queues at midnight on Saturday were only able to buy fuel yesterday afternoon. Even then, some said they had not been allowed to fill their tanks.

Measures taken by the Energy Division to tackle hoarding and black market sales, including appointing tag officers at filling stations, forming monitoring teams at district and upazila level and conducting mobile court operations, have so far failed to improve the situation.

Energy Adviser to the Consumers Association of Bangladesh (CAB) M Shamsul Alam said the ministry had created a narrative that "fuel reserves are overflowing and that there is insufficient storage space".

"Yet people are standing on the streets for hours without getting fuel. The Energy Division, the BPC, the Competition Commission, the Directorate of National Consumer Rights Protection and the law enforcement agencies are all standing like wooden puppets. There are no words to describe this," he told TBS.

Shamsul Alam said the public could have accepted the difficulties if the government had acknowledged that supply is being disrupted by the Middle East conflict, the dollar shortage and uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz.

"Instead, the ministry has created the opposite narrative and is not even admitting there is a fuel shortage. That is proof of the government's serious inefficiency and inability to control the supply chain," he said.

Asked whether fuel supplies would be increased after the price rise, Energy and Mineral Resources Division spokesman Monir Hossain Chowdhury said, "We are often supplying more than the allocated amount. But unless panic buying stops, the situation will not return to normal."

Sajjadul Karim Kabul, president of one faction of the Petrol Pump Owners' Association, said depot supplies had not increased despite the higher prices.

"What is the point of raising fuel prices? The crisis will not end unless supplies increase. If they supplied fuel at full capacity for one week, everything would calm down," he said.

Kabul said officials appear worried that the Strait of Hormuz could be closed again and are therefore reluctant to release more fuel.

"We do not even know whether the government has the fuel. They keep telling the press that reserves are at their highest level in 50 years. If there are reserves, then release the fuel," he said.

Kabul said his 13,500-litre tanker had received only 9,000 litres from the depot and that the same situation had continued for the past three days.

The government's position also drew criticism in parliament.

Rumin Farhana, member of parliament for Brahmanbaria-2, accused the government of misleading the public.

Speaking on a point of order yesterday, she said: "The government keeps saying there is no fuel shortage, but the reality is completely different. There are queues stretching for three kilometres. Drivers are waiting until midnight and still not getting fuel. If there is no crisis, why are there such long queues? Why has the government increased fuel prices?"

Fahmida Khatun, executive director of the Centre for Policy Dialogue, told this newspaper that the price increase had been necessary because the government could no longer bear the cost of rising international fuel prices caused by supply disruptions.

"Consumers now want access to fuel without difficulty. The government must ensure adequate supply in order to normalise the situation," she said.

Countrywide paralysis

The shortage is not confined to the capital, according to TBS correspondents. Reports from Savar suggest that 75% of filling stations lacked octane and petrol by Sunday morning. Local officials claimed that while 68% of pumps had diesel, the concentrated demand on a few functional stations created a sense of panic.

The crisis has also hit the transport sector in Bogura, where goods-carrying trucks are unable to secure sufficient diesel, and in Barisal and Brahmanbaria, where pump owners report receiving no clear timeline from depots regarding when normal supply will resume.

At some stations, such as the SI Chowdhury Filling Station in Savar, managers reported receiving only one-third of their usual weekly octane allocation.

Economist Debapriya Bhattacharya yesterday urged the government to explain the intention behind recent revisions to the Bank Resolution Act, which now allow former owners to regain control of five Islamic banks being merged amid a severe liquidity crisis due to past irregularities.

At a session of the annual economists’ conference at BRAC Centre Inn in Dhaka, he said political authorities must set out their position in parliament and issue a clear statement explaining their intent.

Earlier this month, the House passed the revised Bank Resolution Act 2026, paving the way for former owners of the merging banks to reclaim control under relatively easy terms. The move has been widely viewed as a reversal of the interim government’s banking reform drive.

Under the law, former directors or owners can reclaim control by paying 7.5 percent of the funds injected by the government or the Bangladesh Bank upfront. The remaining 92.5 percent is to be paid within two years at 10 percent simple interest.

“I have no problem with the policy itself, but I want clarity,” Debapriya said at the conference organised by the South Asian Network on Economic Modeling (Sanem).

He said, “Even the central bank governor has not given a statement on this. So, instead of relying on our own interpretations, the authorities must speak.”

Debapriya, convenor of the Citizen’s Platform for SDGs, Bangladesh, said, “I am worried. I have already said over the past couple of days that we need a political statement on this issue. We need a discussion in parliament.”

“What we are doing now, what you, I, and others are saying, is based on our goodwill, but it is still just interpretation,” he said.

“I believe in political interpretation backed by commitment. That commitment should ensure that past problems or actors do not return. And this issue is not limited to today; it will affect the media tomorrow, and then oil and LNG imports the day after. It extends beyond banking; it affects the entire economy,” he further said.

“We have seen such patterns before. That is why I am looking for a clear political explanation, and wondering why the political leadership is silent,” added Debapriya, also a distinguished fellow at the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD).

He said the situation highlights a broader failure to pursue meaningful reform. If reforms are delayed further and pushed into a Five-Year Plan, the approach would be misplaced.

“Unfortunately, although I am also a member of that planning committee, I must say that now is the time for consolidation and reform in order to move forward,” he said.

Without reforms, including stronger revenue generation, better public spending and balanced deficit financing, he asked where the economy would go.

He also referred to findings in a white paper on the economy published by the interim government, which highlighted how deals were struck between politicians and businesspeople, especially around the Prime Minister’s Office.

Businesspeople observed such arrangements and thought, “Why shouldn’t I have a share in this?” he said, adding that some then tried to cut transaction costs by becoming directly involved, including awarding contracts to family members. Eventually, some even entered parliament themselves.

On the capital market, he suggested including not only multinational companies but also state-owned enterprises.

This, the economist said, could achieve two goals at once: raising funds in the short term, even if it feels like selling family silver, and strengthening the quality of listed shares to make the market more vibrant.

Researchers, businesspeople, economists, trade analysts and students from home and abroad took part in the discussion, which was moderated by Selim Raihan, executive director of Sanem.

‘BANK DEFAULT NOW EMBEDDED IN FINANCIAL SYSTEM’

At the session, Professor Rehman Sobhan, chairman of CPD, said banking reforms have been discussed since the time of President Ziaur Rahman, yet major defaults began then and have continued through successive governments.

Although it was once suggested that defaulters should not contest elections, laws were later introduced allowing them to do so if they made a 5 percent down payment and rescheduled loans.

This has resulted in a large group of defaulters in parliament who, he said, help block meaningful reform.

The CPD chairman added that bank default has now become embedded in the structure of the financial system and cannot be addressed simply by targeting a few crony capitalists.

He said legislation alone is not enough. Reforms must be translated into operational measures implemented by the bureaucracy, with outcomes monitored on the ground.

Prof Rehman Sobhan added that an active opposition should work with civil society to act as a watchdog over reform implementation. Ultimately, he said, the government must show genuine intent and build accountability from the Prime Minister’s Office down to the field level.

He said the ultimate test of accountability lies in the government’s willingness to subject its performance to a free, fair and inclusive election.

Mohammad Muslim Chowdhury, former Comptroller and Auditor General of Bangladesh, said that although banks such as Sonali, Janata, Agrani and Rupali were converted into public limited companies two decades ago, they continue to function largely as extensions of the government.

He suggested that these banks should be brought under a genuine corporate structure, merged if necessary, and eventually listed on the stock exchange after a thorough review of their asset quality and balance sheets.

He also called for bringing the Financial Institutions Division (FID) under the regulatory oversight of the Bangladesh Bank to prevent misuse of authority and strengthen supervision.

He further said the total number of banks should be reduced, with particular attention to those with weak balance sheets and negative net worth, through liquidation or other corrective measures.

The latest fuel price increase is expected to send shockwaves through much of the economy, lifting costs for farmers, transporters and manufacturers while offering only slight relief to the government finances and the exchange rate, according to an analysis by Brac EPL Stock Brokerage Ltd.

The brokerage estimates that seven out of nine key economic indicators it reviewed will face negative pressure. Only two areas, fiscal space and the dollar-taka exchange rate, are likely to benefit.

The government on Saturday night raised the prices of four fuels with effect from midnight. Diesel now sells at Tk 115 per litre, octane at Tk 140, petrol at Tk 135 and kerosene at Tk 130.

Bangladesh introduced an automatic, market-driven fuel pricing mechanism on March 7, 2024. Under the guidelines, prices are adjusted in the first week of each month based on the Mean of Platts Arab Gulf benchmark published by S&P Global.

For months, however, prices moved within a narrow Tk 1 to Tk 2 range in line with global markets. This time, the adjustment crosses over 15 percent, reflecting global price volatility amid conflicts in the Middle East.

Brac EPL estimates that a 15 percent increase across hydrocarbons could cut the subsidy bill by about Tk 700 crore a month at current price levels. That would ease pressure on public finances at a time when weak revenue collection and high operating costs have left the government with limited room to manoeuvre.

Lower subsidy requirements could also trim government borrowing, offering some support to the external balance and the exchange rate. But the impact is not straightforward, rather layered and uneven.

The immediate burden of the fuel shock will fall on irrigation, transport and power generation. North Bengal is in the middle of the Boro season, the largest paddy cycle of the year.

Irrigation there depends heavily on diesel and electricity. Higher diesel prices will raise cultivation costs unless offset by policy support or price adjustments.

Transport and logistics are equally exposed. Freight operators usually pass on higher fuel costs quickly, especially in goods transport. That, in turn, feeds into the prices of agricultural produce, consumer goods and manufactured items.

Although diesel-based generation accounts for less than 2 percent of total power output, its share can rise during peak demand, especially as liquified natural gas (LNG) shortages drag on. Higher generation costs may be passed on to consumers or absorbed through fresh subsidies, according to the report.

It said there could be second-round effects too. Dearer transport, irrigation and energy will add to inflationary pressures already stoked by high imported food prices.

The brokerage said that rising inflation expectations could push up yields on government securities and lift borrowing costs for companies if not carefully managed.

Higher inflation and interest rates, according to the report, would weaken demand, lower output, and leave factories running below capacity, which may ultimately translate into slower GDP growth.

While the country usually depends on long-term supply contracts, diesel, which accounts for nearly 65 percent of hydrocarbon consumption, is increasingly sourced from the volatile spot market.

Because geopolitical tensions have disrupted trade routes, with some suppliers declaring force majeure amid infrastructure damage and shipping blockade through the Strait of Hormuz.

The country’s sole crude oil refinery, Eastern Refinery Limited, has an annual capacity of 1.5 million tonnes and meets about 20 percent of domestic demand across 16 fuel products.

The refinery is currently running well below capacity because of crude shortages and is unlikely to scale up production before May this year.

Besides, existing trade agreements with the US limit Bangladesh’s ability to diversify its fuel sourcing, creating added pressure on procurement.

Brac EPL said reliance on spot purchases, low refinery utilisation and limited sourcing options could prompt further price increases, though at a slower pace.

Bangladesh is seeking an additional $2 billion in external support to cushion exposure to volatile fuel markets, ease foreign exchange pressure, and gradually reduce subsidies.

In the meantime, the country has secured a 60-day waiver from the United States to import fuel from Russia and has sourced 100,000 tonnes from Kazakhstan at around $75 a barrel.

Economist Rehman Sobhan today (19 April) said Bangladesh's loan defaulters have become embedded in the political system and are now creating barriers to financial and institutional reforms.

"Loan defaulters have become part of the political structure. They themselves are obstructing reforms. So the problem is no longer person-specific, it is structural," he said on the final day of the three-day 9th South Asian Network on Economic Modeling (Sanem) Annual Economists' Conference in Dhaka.

"Reform is not merely about passing laws, but a continuous process requiring implementation, enforcement and measurable outcomes," he added at the session titled "Romancing the Reform: The Bangladesh Story", held in Dhaka today.

Sobhan said many reform efforts fail because governments do not follow through after legislation. "The first step of reform is enacting laws, followed by building the necessary administrative framework, ensuring proper enforcement and finally evaluating results."

The session was moderated by Sanem Executive Director Selim Raihan. The keynote paper was presented by CPD Distinguished Fellow Debapriya Bhattacharya, while former Finance Secretary and former Comptroller and Auditor General Mohammad Muslim Chowdhury served as designated discussant.

Debapriya said Bangladesh has pursued multiple reforms since independence but progress has been slowed by what he termed a "kleptocratic legacy" of corruption, misuse of public resources, weakened institutions and collusion among political, bureaucratic and business elites.

He said reforms often fail due to weak political ownership, poor implementation capacity, vested interests, lack of consultation, corruption, financing constraints and weak accountability.

Referring to the interim government, he said despite strong rhetoric, it failed to establish a coherent reform framework, lacked an integrated economic vision and did not create a real-time system for citizens to monitor progress.

Banking sector at center of crisis

Debapriya said the banking sector has become one of the clearest examples of how reform plans are derailed during implementation. He said rising non-performing loans (NPLs) are weighing heavily on the economy, while repeated attempts to restructure weak banks have been blocked by political resistance.

"The government has finally disclosed the names of major defaulters. But the real question is what to do with banks that have effectively collapsed," he said.

He also criticised amendments to the Bank Resolution Act, saying the changes created an opportunity for former owners of failed banks to regain influence by injecting a relatively small amount of money.

"This is seen as the comeback of oligarchs in a new form, with political patronage," he said, warning that such policy reversals send the wrong signal when depositors and investors need confidence.

He also criticised overlapping administrative control in the sector, saying governance reforms have been delayed for too long. "Good intentions are not enough. If banking reforms are delayed again, the cost to the economy will be much higher," he warned.

However, he welcomed promises of greater central bank autonomy, stronger supervision, action against defaulters and depositor protection, but questioned whether those commitments would be implemented.

Reform needs political commitment

Rehman Sobhan said political parties make major reform promises during elections, but it remains unclear whether they have the leadership or commitment to deliver them.

He said past reforms succeeded only when they had strong public support, citing the Six-Point Movement as an example of a widely backed reform agenda.

He added that such mobilisation is now weak, with parties failing to effectively communicate manifestos to voters. "In many cases, even party members do not properly know their own manifesto," he said.

Questioning the policy debate culture, Sobhan asked how many commentators have direct government experience, arguing that reform cannot be fully understood without working inside the state. "Without that experience, it is hard to know who supports reform, who resists it, and why it fails," he said.

Recalling his time at the Planning Commission, he said passing reform laws was not the main challenge.

Using police reform as an example, he said success should be measured by outcomes in practice. If accountability mechanisms are introduced, their effectiveness must be tested over time by citizens and journalists, he said. "That would be the real test of reform," he added.

Sobhan said many reform proposals promoted by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are not new, but have been discussed for decades under successive governments.

According to him, governments often show limited progress to unlock loan disbursements, while development partners also have an interest in showing money has been spent.

"What actually happens in the long run is rarely examined," he said.

Need for performance budgeting

Sobhan said he has repeatedly proposed performance-based budgeting to show citizens what outcomes are achieved through public spending. "At present, we only see expenditure figures, with little analysis of results," he said.

Referring to health and education, he said allocations are often underutilised even as complaints persist over inadequate budgets. "If allocated money is not spent properly, where is the real problem?" he asked.

Citing India, Sobhan said major reforms such as the right to food, education and work were driven by strong citizen movements. In Bangladesh, he said civil society remains fragmented and unable to build unified pressure for large-scale reform.

He described the democratic process as the ultimate test of reform, calling for free, fair and inclusive elections. "A government becomes truly accountable when it accepts the people's verdict."

Amid ongoing domestic and global challenges, businesses have urged the government to ensure that the upcoming national budget for the 2026-27 fiscal year is supportive and growth-oriented rather than “punitive”.

They also called for a reduction in effective tax rates, including turnover tax, and stressed the need for a balanced and pragmatic tax policy to encourage investment and economic expansion.

The demands were made at a pre-budget seminar on private-sector priorities in Dhaka, jointly organised by the Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Dhaka (MCCI), and the Economic Reporters’ Forum (ERF).

“In the current global and domestic economic context, we are going through a challenging time,” said Kamran T Rahman, president of MCCI.

High inflation, sluggish investment, elevated interest rates, and pressure on foreign exchange have made doing business difficult, he said, adding that small and medium enterprises are the worst affected.

He said the budget should focus on boosting investment and job creation, urging a further 2.5 percentage point cut in corporate tax for both listed and non-listed companies and the removal of the cash transaction condition.

Rahman also proposed introducing a “Unified Taxpayer Profile” to replace separate tax, VAT, and customs systems, which he said would reduce complexity and harassment.

Golam Mainuddin, chairperson of Apex Footwear Limited, said the tax burden remains disproportionately high on compliant taxpayers.

Habibullah N Karim, senior vice-president of MCCI, said, “This is an opportunity to rethink our taxation paradigm; high rates often discourage compliance.”

“Bangladesh once had such high-income tax rates that no one paid at the top bracket. When rates were reduced, collection increased and it could rise further if rates are lowered again,” he added.

Citing VAT, he noted, “If rates come down from 15 percent, more businesses will comply, and overall collection could increase.”

“There is a huge scope to expand the tax net, but a rent-seeking culture within the tax administration remains a major barrier.”

“Without making the system service-oriented and addressing this culture, even automation will not deliver effective results,” he said.

Malik Mohammed Sayeed, chief executive officer of Square Toiletries Limited, called for retaining tax exemptions on sanitary napkins and diapers.

He also urged a reduction in taxes on imported raw materials to around 10 percent, as key inputs are not locally produced and require large-scale investment.

Asif Ibrahim, former president of the Chittagong Stock Exchange, said, “Investment has stagnated. Without protecting domestic investors, foreign investment will not come.”

He noted that declining private-sector credit growth is a concern, and financial sector reforms are needed.

“We expect the budget to support both domestic and foreign investment through a collaborative approach to drive growth and jobs,” he said.

Former NBR chairman Muhammad Abdul Mazid stressed policy predictability, saying businesses need clarity on tax rates in advance.

ERF President Doulot Akter Mala warned of a potential revenue shortfall of nearly Tk 100,000 crore this fiscal year, cautioning against overly ambitious targets in the next budget.

Business leaders have called for the urgent appointment of a private-sector administrator and swift elections at the Federation of Bangladesh Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FBCCI), warning that prolonged administrative uncertainty is weakening the country’s apex trade body and undermining the interests of the private sector.

They made the call at a meeting with Commerce Minister Khandker Abdul Muqtadir at the commerce ministry today.

The FBCCI has been run by an administrator for the past two years following the political changeover on August 5, 2024.

At today’s event, Mohammad Hatem, president of the BKMEA, stressed the need to appoint an experienced businessperson as administrator of the FBCCI, instead of a government official, so that the concerns of the business community can be addressed more effectively.

He emphasised greater engagement with businesses in policymaking, particularly in the trade and industrial sectors, and highlighted the need to ensure the federation remains active, inclusive, and responsive to all business groups.

Hatem also underscored the urgency of restoring effective leadership through timely elections, warning that prolonged uncertainty is undermining business confidence.

He said the apex trade body must function as a strong and credible representative of the private sector, especially at a time when businesses face multiple domestic and global challenges. Without an elected committee, he noted, the organisation cannot effectively carry out its role in policy advocacy and coordination.

He called for prompt steps to hold elections and restore normal operations, adding that representative leadership would better protect business interests and support economic growth.

Md Zakir Hossain, general secretary of the Bangladesh Supermarket Owners’ Association, also called for the immediate appointment of a new administrator for the FBCCI from within the business community, saying the association has become ineffective under the current setup.

He said the organisation has effectively been left “without guardianship” following consecutive government-appointed administrators. While a previous administrator, Hafizur Rahman, initiated reforms and announced an election schedule, the process was later stalled due to legal challenges from business leaders.

Hossain acknowledged shared responsibility within the business community but warned that prolonged uncertainty is hurting small and medium enterprises the most. “Large businesses can directly approach ministries, but SMEs depend on FBCCI,” he said.

He criticised current administrator Abdur Rahim for limited engagement, calling for a full-time, business-backed administrator. He added that elections should be held quickly, with any rule-related issues addressed either before or after polls by an elected committee.

Abdul Haque, president of the Bangladesh Reconditioned Vehicles Importers and Dealers Association (BARVIDA), also called for the immediate holding of elections at the FBCCI, saying prolonged delays are harming the private sector.

He said the federation has been without an elected committee for nearly two years, calling the situation detrimental to the business environment. “In an economy where around 80 percent is driven by the private sector, the absence of elected leadership in its apex body is unacceptable,” he said.

Haque warned that several policies have been adopted without adequate private-sector input and could have negative impacts. He particularly flagged the long-pending import policy, urging a thorough review.

While acknowledging shared responsibility, he urged the government to appoint a private-sector administrator and hold elections swiftly. Citing the 2006–07 caretaker period as precedent, he said timely action is both possible and necessary.

In response, Commerce Minister Khandker Abdul Muqtadir called for transforming the FBCCI into a truly representative, effective, and non-political body for the business community.

He said the association must play a more proactive role in protecting business interests and conveying concerns to the government, while applying constructive pressure when needed without being politicised.

“We want an FBCCI that genuinely serves as a unified platform for all businesses,” he said, adding that it should provide practical, ground-level input in policymaking.

Muqtadir stressed that competent and dynamic leadership from within the business community is essential to revitalise the organisation. He also reassured leaders of the government’s commitment to a business-friendly environment, noting that a new import policy is in its final stage and that committees will be formed to simplify services across key ministries.

At the meeting, FBCCI Administrator and Additional Secretary (export) Md Abdur Rahim Khan also spoke.

Among the business leaders present were former FBCCI president Mir Nasir Hossain, former BKMEA president SM Fazlul Haque, former FBCCI director Nasreen Fatema Awal, Bangladesh CNG Machineries Importers Association president Zakir Hossain Nayan, former FBCCI director Gias Uddin Chowdhury Khokon, former Rangamati Chamber president Belayet Hossain Bhuiyan, former FBCCI vice-president Nizam Uddin Rajesh, and former director Syed Bakhtiar.

Bangladesh’s mobile operators have warned of an imminent nationwide telecom disruption as a deepening electricity and fuel crisis pushes networks to the brink, raising serious concerns over the vulnerability of data centres and the wider digital economy.

In an urgent letter to the Bangladesh Telecommunication Regulatory Commission, they said the situation has “reached a point where continued telecom operations can no longer be sustained without immediate government intervention.”

The warning, issued by the Association of Mobile Telecom Operators of Bangladesh (AMTOB), comes as prolonged outages -- often lasting 5-8 hours daily during storms -- force operators to run critical infrastructure on diesel generators.

According to the letter, seen by The Daily Star, base transceiver stations (BTS) alone are now consuming over 52,000 litres of diesel and nearly 20,000 litres of octane daily across operators.

A shutdown would “critically disrupt emergency services, disaster response, law enforcement coordination, financial transactions, digital governance, and economic activity.”
Providing a breakdown, it stated that the country’s largest telecom operator Grameenphone consumes 28,079 litres of diesel and 9,254 litres of octane, Robi Axiata uses 13,140 litres of diesel and 5,610 litres of octane, and Banglalink requires 11,206 litres of diesel and 4,995 litres of octane daily to keep towers operational.

The most acute vulnerability, however, lies in data centres and switching facilities – the core of the country’s digital infrastructure.

“Core telecom infrastructure including data centres, switching facilities, and transmission hubs are frequently operating without grid power, posing serious risk to network stability,” the AMTOB said.

Each data centre consumes an estimated 500-600 litres of diesel per hour, translating to around 4,000 litres per day per facility, according to the letter.

Combined daily consumption for data centres and switching hubs has already surged to 27,196 litres, with Grameenphone, Robi and Banglalink accounting for 11,184, 9,732 and 8,200 litres respectively.

Industry insiders say this level of dependence on backup power is unsustainable.

Unlike BTS towers, data centres host critical systems such as call routing and internet traffic management. Any disruption at this level can trigger cascading failures across networks.

“If fuel can’t be managed and data centres go offline, it would cause widespread call drops, internet outages, and service blackouts,” said an official of an operator on condition of anonymity.

Tanveer Mohammad, chief corporate affairs officer of Grameenphone, echoed the concern.

Noting that operators are experiencing challenges in electricity and fuel availability, he said, “The evolving situation calls for timely and targeted measures to sustain uninterrupted telecom services nationwide.”

He said in order to “proactively avoid disruptions to essential services for millions”, they need further support from the government for priority electricity access to critical infrastructure, streamlined fuel supply, and facilitation of fuel transportation for emergency operations.

The consequences could extend far beyond communication breakdowns. The AMTOB cautioned that a shutdown would “critically disrupt emergency services, disaster response, law enforcement coordination, financial transactions, digital governance, and economic activity.”

Bangladesh’s fast-growing digital economy -- heavily reliant on mobile connectivity -- would be particularly exposed. Mobile financial services, e-commerce platforms, ride-sharing apps, and cloud-based enterprise systems depend on uninterrupted network availability. A prolonged outage could halt transactions, delay salary disbursements, and paralyse logistics chains.

The crisis is being compounded by fuel supply constraints. Local stations cannot provide volumes at this scale, the letter noted, and law enforcement barriers during inter-district transport have further disrupted supply lines.

“Multiple strategically vital telecom facilities are currently running on dangerously low fuel reserves,” it warned.

The operators’ association called for immediate government intervention, including uninterrupted electricity supply to key telecom facilities, priority power status for mobile towers, and direct fuel allocation from depots.

They also urged authorities to ensure smooth fuel transportation.

“Issue immediate written directives to LEAs (law enforcement agency) to ensure uninterrupted fuel transportation for emergency telecom operations,” they said in the letter.

“The telecom network is the backbone of national communications, public safety, governance, and emergency response. Any prolonged disruption will have severe and potentially irreversible consequences for the country,” they added.

They proposed that authorities hold an urgent high-level coordination meeting involving the power and energy divisions, fuel authorities, regulators, and operators.

There are 46,567 telecom towers in Bangladesh, operated by tower infrastructure companies and mobile operators, providing network coverage to over 18.58 crore customers. Operators have around 27 data centres across the country.