The dollar headed for its biggest monthly gain since July on Tuesday and stands out as the strongest so-called ​safe asset, as war in the Middle East has set oil prices surging, nearly everything else sinking and raised the risk ‌of global recession.

Developed market currencies were broadly steady on the day, with the Japanese yen unchanged at 159.62 per dollar, the euro flat at $1.1472 and the pound 0.14 percent higher at $1.3202 .

But still all three were set for March falls of more than 2 percent. For the euro and pound, that is the largest drop since July, and since October for ​the yen.

The dollar has been supported by the US status as an energy exporter and by investors’ flight to cash over the past ​month of conflict.

The latest news from the war, including a Wall Street Journal report that US President Donald Trump was ⁠willing to end attacks on Iran without forcing open the Strait of Hormuz, did little for currencies on Tuesday, but did underscore their monthly moves.

“The ​lack of a clear plan to reopen the Strait continues to pose upside risks to global energy prices,” said Lee Hardman, senior currency analyst at MUFG.

“The ​potential for a bigger hit to growth outside of the US continues to encourage a stronger US dollar,” he said.

Asian currencies have suffered some of the largest losses and, on Tuesday, the dollar pushed 1 percent higher against South Korea’s won , to 1,534 won, levels touched only in the wake of the global financial crisis in 2009 and the Asian ​financial crisis in 1997 and 1998.

The dollar index, which tracks the unit against six main peers, touched its highest since last May at 100.64 and, ​last sitting at 100.47, is up 2.8 percent through March.

Bangladesh Bank has decided to introduce an Islamic interbank money market within the current fiscal year to provide Shariah-compliant banks with a structured platform for managing short-term liquidity.

At present, Islamic banks are unable to borrow through the conventional call money market due to Shariah restrictions, often leaving them under pressure during liquidity shortages.

The proposed market is set to create an alternative funding mechanism, making liquidity management more efficient. It will be open not only to full-fledged Islamic banks but also to conventional banks operating Islamic branches and windows.

To develop the framework, the Bangladesh Bank has reviewed international practices, particularly in countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia, and Bahrain, where Islamic interbank money markets are well-established. The central bank has also engaged with its counterparts in these jurisdictions.

Under the proposed system, transactions will be allowed for tenors of 1, 7, 14, 28, 90 and 180 days. Both collateralised and uncollateralised borrowing options will be available. The central bank has already circulated a policy outline among commercial banks.

An earlier attempt to introduce a similar interbank arrangement for Islamic banks in 2011 failed to gain traction. The renewed initiative is part of broader efforts to strengthen liquidity conditions in the sector.

Conventional banks can easily manage liquidity shortages by borrowing from the call money market. The initial plan to establish a similar interbank market for Islamic banks was conceived during the tenure of former governor Ahsan H Mansur.

A positive sign for the sector

Arfan Ali, former managing director of Bank Asia, noted that the absence of an interbank mechanism had often forced Islamic banks to seek funds outside Shariah-compliant frameworks.

"Once introduced, Islamic banks will be able to transfer funds among themselves, which is a positive development," he said.

He added that banks with surplus funds would be able to lend to those facing shortages, easing temporary liquidity constraints. "Currently, some Islamic banks rely on borrowing from other banks or receive special support from the central bank due to the lack of suitable financial instruments."

A senior official at a Shariah-based bank said, "Islamic institutions cannot borrow from conventional banks or access central bank liquidity through repo operations. While they can raise funds through Islamic sukuk, the volume remains insufficient compared to demand."

What Islamic banks do now

At present, Islamic banks rely on several mechanisms to manage liquidity. These include the Islamic Bank Liquidity Facility, where sukuk must be provided as collateral to obtain support from the central bank.

They also use the Bangladesh Government Islamic Investment Bond, where banks with surplus funds place deposits for three- and six-month tenors. However, this fund is currently inactive due to a lack of available resources.

In addition, Islamic banks manage liquidity through interbank deposits based on mudaraba principles, offering profit-sharing returns. In times of cash shortfall, banks often rely on deposits from peer institutions to bridge gaps.

According to a senior Bangladesh Bank official, the proposed interbank market will provide a more organised platform for liquidity management without direct intervention from the central bank, although it will remain under regulatory monitoring.

The platform will also help the central bank better assess liquidity demand and supply within the Islamic banking segment, an area that is currently difficult to track accurately.

What the new system will offer

Industry insiders believe the new system will increase flexibility in fund management. Banks facing short-term deficits, such as overnight imbalances in current accounts, will be able to borrow from other Islamic banks instead of depending solely on the central bank.

However, concerns remain regarding newly formed or financially weak banks. A senior official noted that such institutions may initially struggle to attract funds from the interbank market due to concerns over repayment capacity and limited income streams.

The managing director of a bank said the implementation of this system would enhance flexibility in fund transfers among Islamic banks. Rather than relying solely on the central bank for short-term fund management, banks would be able to source liquidity from their peers, he said.

"If a bank's current account suddenly turns negative, it could borrow overnight from another bank to return to a positive balance, thereby significantly expanding the options available to these institutions," said the banker.

However, a senior Bangladesh Bank official noted that it will be challenging for Sammilito Islami Bank to secure interbank loans immediately following its formation. There is an underlying concern regarding whether funds lent to this newly established institution would be recoverable, he said.

Not a long-term solution

Experts have cautioned that the initiative should not be viewed as a long-term solution. A former managing director of a private Islamic bank said that while the interbank market can help manage short-term liquidity pressures, it cannot resolve deeper structural issues, including those arising from financial irregularities.

"If mismanaged, using interbank funds to address long-term crises could backfire," he warned, emphasising the need for strong central bank oversight to ensure proper utilisation of borrowed funds.

Islami Bank Bangladesh Limited has sought the recovery of nearly Tk10,000 crore owed by five Shariah-based banks, raising the issue during a meeting with Bangladesh Bank Governor Mostaqur Rahman on Tuesday (31 March).

The meeting was held at the central bank's headquarters at 11:30am, where the governor met the bank's board. It was attended by the bank's chairman, board members, the managing director and other senior officials.

According to sources, Islami Bank Bangladesh Chairman M Zubaidur Rahman urged the prompt recovery of outstanding dues during the discussion.

Sources said Islami Bank also has dues pending from state-owned Janata Bank Limited. In addition, the bank informed the central bank that around Tk1,000 crore in remittance incentives remains pending and requested the release of the funds from Bangladesh Bank.

The lender also sought regulatory support in recovering large loans, relaxation in provisioning requirements under special circumstances, and guidance on maintaining relations with major industrial groups.

In response, Moshtaqur assured the board that the issues would be examined seriously and that decisions on support would be communicated soon, while also pledging full support for smooth operations.

A senior Bangladesh Bank official told The Business Standard that the governor also asked about the bank's operational challenges and instructed relevant departments to review the matters.

The discussion comes as Islami Bank continues efforts to recover from a prolonged governance crisis.

On 17 February, Bangladesh Bank removed board member Md Abdul Jalil and appointed accountant SM Abdul Hamid in his place.

From 2017 until August 2024, before the fall of the Awami League government, the bank was effectively controlled by the S Alam Group.

During that period, nearly Tk1.2 lakh crore was withdrawn under various names and roughly 10,000 officials were irregularly appointed, pushing the bank into a deep crisis.

After the interim government assumed office in 2024, the bank's board was restructured, with several senior officials leaving the country. Md Abdul Jalil was later appointed to the reconstituted board.

Tuesday's meeting marked Governor Moshtaqur's second discussion with the board.

During the first meeting, he noted that Islami Bank had once been a strong institution but had suffered governance lapses in recent years. He also assured full support from the central bank to restore stability, stressing that the bank must not serve the interests of any single group, political party or family.

Meanwhile, A report submitted by Bangladesh Bank to the Anti-Corruption Commission alleged that the S Alam Group had taken nearly Tk1.9 lakh crore in loans from four of the eight banks it controlled.

Of that amount, Islami Bank alone accounted for about Tk1.05 lakh crore.

The Bangladesh Financial Intelligence Unit reported that more than Tk93,000 crore was laundered through fraudulent companies.

According to the findings, Saiful Alam Masud, head of the S Alam Group, and related entities used their influence to secure the loans either directly or through intermediaries.

The government on Tuesday (31 March) approved the procurement of 1 lakh tonnes of refined diesel from Kazakhstan at a competitive rate of $76.41 per barrel to safeguard domestic supply against a volatile global market triggered by the Iran war.

The procurement from ExxonMobil Kazakhstan INC comes as Bangladesh secures a strategic diplomatic opening with the United States.

During a high-level meeting on 11 March at the Secretariat, Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury urged US Ambassador Brent T Christensen to grant Bangladesh temporary waivers for Russian oil imports, similar to the exemptions currently enjoyed by India.

Following the meeting, the finance minister confirmed that the request to support the national economy and ensure steady fuel supplies had been forwarded to the relevant authorities in Washington.

The decision to procure diesel from Kazakhstan was made at a meeting of the Cabinet Committee on Government Purchase, chaired by the finance minister, as Bangladesh moves to secure fuel supplies amid mounting geopolitical uncertainty and supply disruptions.

Case-by-case implementation

A senior Energy Division official told TBS that the US government has responded positively to the proposal by Bangladesh to purchase oil from Kazakhstan.

Washington is now providing feedback on a "case-by-case" basis, allowing Bangladesh to import from specific suppliers and ports that may have Russian associations without breaching international sanctions, he said.

ExxonMobil Kazakhstan, while operating in the Caspian region, often involves projects with Russian links; however, the firm currently adheres to US-mandated compliance standards.

This cooperative stance from Washington enabled the government to approve the $76.41 per barrel deal, which is significantly lower than other market offers.

The government remains cautious regarding new suppliers. Officials noted that while some firms have offered diesel even at lower rates, those deals were not pursued after the US authorities expressed concerns via the Bangladesh Embassy in Washington.

Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation Chairman Md Rezanur Rahman told this newspaper that ExxonMobil expressed confidence in the Bangladeshi market through its own internal reviews.

A "Notification of Award" is set to be issued today (1 April), with the high-quality, low-sulphur diesel expected to reach the country within 15 days of the contract signing and Letter of Credit (LC) opening, he said.

Two more fuel import proposals

In addition to the Exxon Mobil Kazakhstan deal, the committee approved two more fuel import proposals. One involves the purchase of 60,000 tonnes of refined diesel at $221.08 per barrel (including a $5.33 premium) from Indonesia's PT Bumi Siak Pusako Zapin under a government-to-government arrangement.

The other allows for the import of 1,00,000 tonnes of crude oil at $137.14 per barrel (including a $15 premium) from Malaysia-based Abeer Trade and Global Markets via the direct procurement method.

Meanwhile, three additional fuel import proposals were withdrawn at the meeting due to various inconsistencies.

Not guaranteed yet

However, officials cautioned that not all approved deals materialise, as some suppliers fail to meet conditions such as providing performance guarantees. The government has maintained a strict stance against opening letters of credit without such guarantees.

An official from the Energy Division said, "Several companies have yet to deliver fuel, despite receiving approval from the Cabinet Committee on Government Purchase."

BPC to invite tenders for new fuel suppliers

To enhance supply security and ensure competitive pricing, BPC plans to expand its pool of suppliers by inviting new participants, with several international firms already expressing interest in entering the Bangladeshi market.

The BPC is set to publish a notice within this week to enlist new suppliers. This initiative aims to diversify BPC's sourcing of fuel oils and secure more competitive pricing.

According to the BPC chairman, at least 20 international companies have already expressed interest in supplying fuel to Bangladesh. Consequently, BPC has decided to expand its pool of enlisted suppliers, a move expected to make the procurement of both refined and crude oil more efficient, transparent, and competitive.

Currently, Saudi Arabian Oil Company (Saudi Aramco) and Abu Dhabi National Oil Company are the only listed suppliers of crude oil. For refined fuel, nine companies are currently registered.

No fuel price hike for April

Meanwhile, the government on Tuesday decided to keep fuel prices unchanged for April, despite a recent uptick in international oil markets, prioritising public relief over immediate price adjustments.

Officials said the decision not to raise fuel prices was taken after considering multiple factors, particularly the inflationary pressure across sectors that would heavily impact consumers.

Another key concern is the uncertainty in the global energy market.

Officials said the government thinks any increase in diesel prices would have an immediate and widespread impact on daily life.

"If transport costs were to surge, that would trigger fare hikes and commuter frustration. The ripple effects would quickly spread to kitchen markets and grocery stores, fuelling a broader price spiral," said an official.

Bangladesh’s remittance inflows have reached a historic high, recording US $3.62 billion in the first 30 days of March 2026.Bangladesh economic report

This surge, fueled by expatriates’ increasing transfers ahead of the Eid-ul-Fitr celebrations, has pushed the foreign exchange reserves to a robust $34.05 billion.

The March figure marks a significant 10.7 percent growth compared to the $3.27 billion received during the same period in 2025. This record-breaking performance in March 2026 contributes to an exceptional trajectory for the current fiscal year (FY 2025-26).

Cumulative remittance from July 2025 to March 28, 2026, has reached $26.07 billion, a staggering 19.8 percent increase over the $21.76 billion recorded during the corresponding period of FY 2024-25. Central bank officials attribute this record-breaking trend to the government’s 2.5 percent cash incentive on formal banking channels, which has effectively discouraged the informal “hundi” system.

Bolstered by the influx of foreign currency, Bangladesh’s gross foreign exchange reserves rose to $34.05 billion as of March 30, 2026. Under the IMF’s BPM6 manual, the reserves stood at $29.35 billion. This is a slight adjustment from mid-month figures, where gross reserves peaked at $34.22 billion on March 16.

The surge was most concentrated in the first half of the month, with expatriates sending home $2.20 billion in just the first 14 days—a 35.7 percent jump compared to the previous year. Industry insiders noted that Non-resident Bangladeshis (NRBs) traditionally ramp up transfers during Ramadan to support family festival expenses, providing a vital seasonal boost to the national economy.

Economists suggest that if this momentum continues, total remittance for FY 2025-26 will likely surpass all previous annual records. Such a milestone would further stabilize the exchange rate of the Taka and ease pressure on the country’s balance of payments amidst ongoing global economic volatility.

The US national average retail ​price of gasoline crossed $4 a gallon for the first time in more than three years on Monday, data ‌from price tracking services GasBuddy showed, as the US-Israeli war with Iran continued to roil global energy markets.

The $4 per gallon milestone was last reached in August 2022 following Russia's invasion of Ukraine and represents what some analysts have called a psychological barrier for consumers. Prices for many goods are climbing, including oil ​used to make gasoline, following Iran's essential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key trade chokepoint.

Surging fuel prices ​have started to weigh on US household finances, which were already grappling with rising costs. They have ⁠also become a political headache for President Donald Trump and his Republican Party ahead of the November midterm elections, as they campaign ​to hold onto thin majorities in the US Congress.

Trump had vowed to lower energy prices and ramp up US oil and gas ​production. But so far, much of his second term has been marked by volatile markets, geopolitical turmoil and shifting policies on issues such as tariffs.

US national average retail gasoline prices have climbed about $1.06 a gallon, or 36 percent, since the US and Israel attacked Iran at the end of February.

“A sudden outbreak of ​war leads to a spike in US gasoline to $4.00 per gallon. That describes the current Iran conflict - and also Russia’s invasion ​of Ukraine in 2022. Then, as now, oil prices soared around the world, and emergency oil stockpiles were tapped. But we envision this crisis being ‌shorter: ⁠whereas gas stayed above $4.00 for 23 weeks in 2022, we expect prices starting to cool in the next few weeks,” said Raymond James analyst Pavel Molchanov.

Still, pump prices could climb further if crude oil prices continue to surge. US oil futures have surged since the war began, settling at $102.88 a barrel on Monday, up $3.24. They jumped over $3 in Asian trading after Kuwait said an oil tanker was attacked ​at a Dubai port.

The Trump ​administration has taken steps to ⁠assuage the rise in energy prices as the war has dragged on, including a waiver of the Jones Act shipping law. The waiver temporarily allows foreign-flagged vessels to move fuel, fertilizer and other ​goods between US ports. Industry insiders expect it to have only a marginal impact on price ​increases.

The war in Iran has knocked the global economy off the path to growth, according to the OECD.

High gasoline prices ⁠are already squeezing US household finances. Some 55 percent of respondents in a Reuters/Ipsos poll said their household finances had taken at least "somewhat" of a toll from the increases in gas prices. Among those seeing an impact, 21 percent said their finances were affected "a great deal."

“The key issue is ⁠not simply crude oil itself. It is gasoline, the most visible price in the economy for consumers, and when that price jumps it hits psychology immediately,” Jeremy Siegel, economist at WisdomTree, said in a note.

“That matters, even if the broader economic effect is more balanced than the headlines.”

The government is set to keep fuel prices unchanged for April, despite a recent uptick in international oil markets, prioritising public relief over immediate price adjustments, according to the Energy and Mineral Resources Division (EMRD).

In recent days, authorities concerned had been considering a partial alignment of domestic fuel prices with global trends, which would have led to a price increase.

However, the move has now been shelved in view of mounting public hardship, officials said.

Fuel stock remains stable as nationwide drives intensify against illegal hoarding

Sources at the energy division confirmed that, even with a significant subsidy burden, the government is leaning towards maintaining existing prices for the month of April.

A circular has been issued this evening, to this end, stating that based on the "Fuel Pricing Guidelines", the government has determined and approved the consumer-level retail prices for fuel.

The price of diesel remains at Tk100 per litre, octane at Tk120 per litre, petrol at Tk116 per litre, and kerosene at Tk112 per litre.

The circular further states that these prices remain unchanged and will continue to be effective from 1 April.

The notification was signed by Enamul Huq, senior assistant secretary of the EMRD, and was addressed to the chairman of the Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation.

Yesterday, the EMRD had said the government was reviewing proposals from state-owned distributors to adjust fuel prices, while simultaneously assessing the subsidy implications under multiple pricing scenarios.

"We have received the proposal from distributors regarding a fuel price adjustment. We are now examining it carefully," EMRD Joint Secretary Monir Hossain Chowdhury told a press conference at the Ministry of Power, Energy and Mineral Resources.

The discussion on hiking fuel prices comes in the face of a global crisis stemming from the Middle East war. In order to cope with energy shortages, prices have increased in many neighbouring countries, and some countries have even shut down educational institutions due to energy shortages.

Earlier, Home Minister Salahuddin Ahmed said keeping fuel prices unchanged in the country, despite their rise in international markets following the Middle East war, was a major success of the government.

The government has reiterated that Bangladesh faces no actual fuel shortage, even as the ongoing conflict in the Middle East disrupts global energy markets, maintaining that supply remains stable and manageable with plans underway to build longer-term reserves, including a 90-day fuel stock.

Officials stressed that recent supply pressures are largely the result of hoarding by a section of traders, creating artificial scarcity rather than reflecting real deficits.

Energy Minister Iqbal Hasan Mahmud said that supply constraints at times were due to logistical delays rather than a lack of fuel. "There is enough fuel… people will get it, but they should not buy more than necessary," he said, urging consumers to avoid panic purchases.

State Minister for Power, Energy, and Mineral Resources Anindha Islam Amit said that long queues at filling stations were caused by a sudden spike in demand.

He urged consumers to avoid stockpiling, reassuring them that both fuel and electricity remain stable.

The state minister said around Tk167 crore is being spent daily to stabilise fuel prices and ease public suffering, as any price hike would immediately increase electricity tariffs, transport fares and food prices.

Recent fuel arrivals

Early today (31 March), a Panama-flagged vessel, PVT Solana, carrying 30,000 tonnes of diesel from Malaysia, berthed at Chattogram Port, marking the eighth fuel shipment to arrive this month.

The Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation (BPC) confirmed that the diesel may be unloaded either via lightering or directly at the dolphin jetty, with final arrangements pending.

Another vessel carrying a similar quantity is expected on 3 April, while a ship transporting around 70,000 tonnes of LNG is due on 4 April. Over the past month, 33 vessels have docked, including 15 carrying fuel oil, eight with LNG, and nine transporting LPG.

Officials said that Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation plans to boost diesel imports from India's Numaligarh Refinery, while Petrobangla has secured nine LNG cargoes for April.

Govt plans strategy to battle crisis

State Minister for Foreign Affairs Shama Obead Islam outlined the government's multi-pronged strategy to secure an uninterrupted fuel supply and strengthen reserves.

Bangladesh is actively engaging with multiple countries – including Saudi Arabia, India, Malaysia, Indonesia, the United States, and Russia – to ensure continued imports.

Several consignments are expected in April under existing agreements and memorandums of understanding.

On fuel imports from Russia, the state minister said the issue of sanctions requires procedural considerations, including engagement with the United States, adding that the relevant ministries are in discussions to resolve such matters.

"There is no fuel crisis at the moment. We have sufficient reserves, and efforts are underway to strengthen our stock further," she said, emphasising that traders creating artificial pressure must be addressed strictly.

India's real GDP growth for the next fiscal (2026-27) could erode by around one percentage point, while retail inflation could rise by about 1.5 percentage points from their baseline estimates if the West Asia conflict persists through the next fiscal, consultancy firm Ernst & Young report said.

The EY Economy Watch report said several sectors, including employment-intensive sectors like textiles, paints, chemicals, fertilisers and cement could be directly impacted.

Any reduction in employment or incomes in these sectors may further dampen aggregate demand. As a result, both supply and demand conditions may be adversely affected by global oil market disturbances, the report added.

It said the Indian economy, which imports nearly 90% of its crude oil requirements, is also highly dependent on imports of natural gas and fertilisers and is particularly vulnerable to such external shocks, with the adverse effects likely to cascade across multiple sectors through strong forward and backward linkages with crude oil and energy.

EY, in its February report, projected India's GDP could be between 6.8% and 7.2% in the 2026-27 fiscal.

The Indian government has already set up a Rs1 lakh crore economic stabilisation fund to act as a financial cushion against global headwinds.

Bangladesh's apparel exports to the European market could face a carbon tax of about 5% if emissions are not reduced, a new study warns.

The European Union (EU), Bangladesh's largest export market, has introduced the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) to curb emissions across its supply chains. Apparel products could be brought under this mechanism by 2030.

If current emission levels in Bangladesh's garment sector persist, an additional 4.8% carbon tax may be imposed on apparel exports after 2030, according to the study.

The findings come from joint research by Professor Mustafizur Rahman, distinguished fellow at the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), and Mohammad Imraj Kabir. The report was published on the CPD website on 29 March.

This additional tax may come at a time when Bangladesh is set to lose its duty-free trade benefits in the EU market due to graduation from least developed country (LDC) status.

The study notes that the loss of duty-free access could result in an average tariff of about 12%, and with the added carbon tax of 4.8%, the total tariff burden could rise to nearly 17%.

"The carbon tax on Bangladesh's exports of apparel to the EU, using the EU-CBAM methodology, is estimated to be 4.8%," the report titled "EU Carbon Tax: Possible Implications for Bangladesh's Apparel Export" states.

"If the average EU-MFN import duty on apparel is taken to be 12.1%, the total import tariff comes to about 16.9% (12.1%+4.8%)," it adds.

This scenario could emerge after Bangladesh graduates from the LDC group in November 2026. Even if the EU extends duty-free access until 2029, the apparel sector could still face a 4.8% CBAM tax during 2026–2029 if apparel is included in the mechanism.

Professor Mustafizur Rahman told TBS, "We estimated this based on the level of carbon emissions in Bangladesh's apparel sector."

However, industry leaders are not overly concerned. They say many factories have already begun adopting environmentally friendly production processes, including renewable energy, to reduce emissions, and others are expected to follow.

Mahmud Hasan Khan Babu, president of the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA), told TBS, "We have already started preparing to use 30% renewable energy in line with EU requirements. Many of our factories have begun implementing green practices, including renewable energy."

He added that smaller and medium-sized factories are also being supported to meet these requirements in collaboration with the government.

Bangladesh has one of the highest numbers of green-certified factories by the US Green Building Council (USGBC), with nearly 300 such facilities.

However, Mustafizur Rahman noted that existing green factories do not fully meet all EU requirements, though this still represents significant progress.

The EU introduced CBAM in July 2021 to encourage exporters to reduce emissions and penalise those who do not. Initially, it applies to products such as cement, fertiliser and steel from January 2026. However, the EU plans to eventually include all imported goods by 2030.

Given that apparel accounts for more than four-fifths of Bangladesh's exports – and the EU takes more than half of those exports – this development is highly significant for the country.

Need to prioritise clean energy

The report stresses that Bangladesh must increase the use of clean energy in production to avoid potential carbon taxes in the EU market. It recommends a range of policy measures, including incentives for adopting green technologies.

Suggested steps include fiscal incentives such as reduced import duties on energy-efficient technologies, financial support like subsidised loans for setting up ETPs, and institutional measures such as enforcing emission-reduction policies and building technical capacity.

Other recommendations include developing a monitoring mechanism for CBAM, engaging with the World Trade Organization (WTO), introducing a domestic carbon pricing system, strengthening renewable energy policies, and ensuring that CBAM is not used as a protectionist trade tool.

The government is considering a strategic diesel allocation plan for the ready-made garment sector based on recommendations from trade bodies to ensure factory generators remain operational during periods of load-shedding.

The move comes amid a worsening global energy crisis triggered by the Iran war, which has driven up fuel and LNG prices and disrupted supply chains. Iran's move to halt tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has further tightened global supply.

According to officials and industry sources, the proposed mechanism will allow factories to receive diesel strictly in line with certified daily requirements provided by the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA) and the Bangladesh Knitwear Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BKMEA).

Both organisations have already begun collecting data from member factories on generator capacity and fuel demand. In a letter issued on Sunday, the BGMEA asked its members to submit details of generator usage, capacity and diesel requirements by 2 April, while the BKMEA issued a similar request.

BGMEA President Mahmud Hasan Khan said factories rely on standby generators during power outages, which require a steady diesel supply. He noted that discussions with the government are under way to ensure equitable fuel distribution during the ongoing global crisis.

He added that, under an initial plan, diesel allocation would be based on the amount required to run generators for up to four hours a day, as extended load-shedding beyond that duration is not anticipated.

BKMEA President Mohammad Hatem said the association is gathering daily fuel demand data from its members and will issue certifications accordingly. He added that a meeting with the power and energy minister was scheduled for late yesterday to finalise the arrangement.

BKMEA Executive President Fazlee Shamim Ehsan said discussions have already taken place with the energy minister and local administrators in Narayanganj and Gazipur, with positive responses.

He expressed hope that fuel supply based on organisational recommendations would begin soon, depending on the evolving situation.

Under the proposed system, factories will be allowed to collect diesel once daily from nearby filling stations, which will supply fuel upon verification of BGMEA or BKMEA certification, sources said.

Data from the Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation indicate that the country consumes around 13,000 to 14,000 tonnes of diesel per day, with about 5% used by industrial factories. The bulk of diesel is consumed in transport, irrigation and power generation.

Bangladesh, which is heavily dependent on fuel imports from Middle Eastern countries such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, has not received crude oil shipments since the war started.

Imports of refined fuel and LNG – primarily sourced from countries including Qatar and Oman – have also been affected, with LNG prices nearly doubling.

Diesel remains critical for transport, agriculture, power generation and industrial operations, while LNG is widely used in electricity production and factory boilers. The ongoing global shortage has already begun to affect domestic supply, with consumers facing difficulties in obtaining fuel in line with demand, industry insiders said.

A rapid expansion of solar energy is essential to protect Bangladesh from escalating global fuel price shocks triggered by the Iran war, according to a new study.

The report by Lion City Advisory highlights how surging global energy prices have intensified pressure on Bangladesh's already strained power sector, exposing its heavy dependence on imported fossil fuels.

Within just four weeks, Brent crude prices jumped from $67 to over $100 per barrel, while liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices surged from $10 to $22.51 per MMBtu, the report noted.

As a result, Bangladesh's monthly import bill for oil, LNG and coal has increased by an estimated $760-830 million, with LNG alone adding $363-400 million in additional monthly costs.

Analysts warn that if elevated prices persist for more than six months, the country could face significant fiscal strain due to rising subsidy requirements.

Despite installed power capacity jumping from 5,245MW in 2005-06 to 28,919MW in 2026, around 63% of capacity remains idle. Yet, the government continues to pay around Tk38,000 crore annually in capacity payments – largely to oil-based plants – compounding financial stress.

With almost 87% of electricity still generated from fossil fuels, Bangladesh remains highly exposed to global commodity volatility.

Solar seen as fastest shield

The study identifies solar energy as the quickest and most scalable way to reduce this exposure, recommending nationwide adoption of Solar Home Systems (SHS), particularly in urban areas.

In Dhaka alone, nearly 3.5 million households rely on diesel generators, costing an estimated $530 million annually. Mandatory SHS adoption could significantly cut these expenses while reducing fuel imports and easing pressure on the national grid.

Rooftop solar also presents a major opportunity. Although the current installed capacity stands at around 245MW, the report suggests this could expand rapidly if policy barriers are removed.

"Solar is not just a climate solution – it is now a fiscal necessity," the report states, emphasising that solar power eliminates dependence on imported fuels and shields the economy from global price shocks.

Unlocking investment through policy reform

A key bottleneck remains the suspension of Implementation Agreements (IAs) for new solar independent power producers (IPPs), which has stalled more than 5,200 MW of planned projects.

Without IA-backed guarantees, developers cannot secure financing from global lenders such as the International Finance Corporation, the Asian Development Bank, and the Japan International Cooperation Agency.

The report urges immediate reinstatement of IAs for projects above 50MW, with fiscal safeguards. Unlike conventional IPPs, solar projects operate on an energy-payment model – meaning the government pays only for electricity actually generated, avoiding the costly capacity payments that currently burden the system.

Tariffs offered by solar developers – around $0.08/kWh – are described as globally competitive and cheaper than oil-based generation.

Cutting costs at source

Beyond solar expansion, the report outlines immediate steps to reduce system costs.

One major recommendation is the removal of import duties on solar equipment, currently ranging from 14-28%, which could lower project costs by up to 20%.

It also calls for simplifying net metering approvals – currently taking up to 90 days – through a 30-day automatic approval mechanism, alongside penalties for utility delays.

At the same time, renegotiating and gradually retiring expensive HFO and diesel-based plants could save around Tk18,000 crore annually, with funds redirected toward renewable energy investments.

Efficiency gains and gas supply concerns

Industrial energy efficiency is identified as another immediate opportunity. Waste heat recovery systems in factories could save around 50 billion cubic feet of gas annually – equivalent to $1.13 billion in LNG imports at current prices.

Describing this as "effectively free LNG," the report says such measures can provide short-term relief while renewable capacity is expanded.

The study also notes a decline in domestic gas production – from around 2,700 MMcfd in 2018 to 1,700 MMcfd in 2026 – urging an emergency drilling programme by Bangladesh Petroleum Exploration and Production Company Limited to accelerate the completion of 34 planned wells.

However, it cautions that gas alone cannot resolve the crisis and recommends prioritising domestic gas for high-value sectors such as fertiliser, while shifting power generation towards solar energy.

Long-term resilience

The report proposes allocating 50,000 acres of marginal land for solar parks and expanding solar irrigation to replace almost 1.5 million diesel pumps that currently consume around $1.5 billion annually.

It also calls for reforms in green financing, including simplifying Bangladesh Bank's approval process to enable faster, low-cost funding for renewable projects.

Underlying all recommendations is a clear message: Bangladesh must move away from a fuel-import-driven power system toward one based on domestic, renewable energy.

"The current crisis is a warning," the report concludes. "Solar energy, backed by policy reform and investment certainty, offers Bangladesh the most viable path to reduce price exposure, stabilise subsidies, and secure long-term energy independence."

Oil prices extended gains on Monday, with ​Brent headed for a record monthly rise, after Yemeni Houthis launched their first attacks on Israel over the ‌weekend, widening the US-Israel war with Iran in the Middle East.

Brent crude futures jumped $3.94, or 3.5 percent, to $116.51 a barrel at 0703 GMT after settling 4.2 percent higher on Friday.

US West Texas Intermediate was at $102.14 a barrel, up $1.86, or 1.87 percent, following a 5.5 percent gain in the previous session.

“The market has all but discounted the prospect of ​a negotiated end to the war, Trump’s claims of ongoing ‘direct and indirect’ talks with Iran notwithstanding, and is bracing for ​a sharp escalation in military hostilities, which is a bullish signal for crude, with huge uncertainties on the timing and nature of the outcome,” said Vandana Hari, founder of oil market analysis provider Vanda Insights.

US President Donald Trump said ​the US and Iran have been meeting “directly and indirectly” and that Iran’s new leaders have been “very reasonable”, as more U.S troops arrived in ​the region, while the Israeli military said on Monday it is attacking the Iranian government’s infrastructure throughout Tehran.

Brent has soared 59 percent this month, the steepest monthly jump, exceeding gains seen during the 1990 Gulf War, after the Iran conflict effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, a conduit for a fifth of the world’s ​oil and gas supplies.

The war, launched on February 28 with US and Israeli strikes on Iran, has spread across the Middle East, ​raising concern about shipping lanes around the Arabian Peninsula and the Red Sea.

The Israeli military on Monday said Iran launched multiple waves of missiles at Israel ‌and an ⁠attack had also been launched from Yemen for only the second time since the war began.

“The conflict is no longer concentrated in the Persian Gulf and around the Strait of Hormuz, but now extends into the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb — one of the world’s most crucial chokepoints for crude and refined product flows,” JP Morgan analysts led by Natasha Kaneva said in a note.

Saudi crude exports ​re-directed from the Strait of ​Hormuz to the Yanbu port ⁠in the Red Sea reached 4.658 million barrels per day last week, data from analytics firm Kpler showed.

If exports from Yanbu were disrupted, Saudi oil would need to pivot toward Egypt’s Suez-Mediterranean (SUMED) pipeline to ​the Mediterranean, JP Morgan analysts said.

Attacks in the region escalated over the weekend and damaged Oman’s Salalah ​terminal despite efforts ⁠to start ceasefire talks.

Iran said it was ready to respond to a US ground attack, accusing Washington on Sunday of preparing a land assault even as it sought negotiations.

Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar said they had covered possible ways to bring an early and permanent end to the ⁠war in ​the region as well as potential US-Iran talks in Islamabad.

Separately, Vietnam’s Binh Son ​Refining and Petrochemical on Monday said it is in talks with Russian partners to buy crude oil. The company said it would also buy more crude oil from Africa, ​the US and Southeast Asia.

Foreign loan disbursement declined by 26.2% in the first eight months (July–February) of the current fiscal year.

According to an updated report published today (30 March) by the Economic Relations Division (ERD), development partners disbursed $3.053 billion during this period, compared to $4.134 billion in the same period of the previous fiscal year.

ERD officials said the slowdown in project implementation due to elections led to the drop in disbursement. The administration remained focused on the election during the current fiscal year, which slowed the pace of development project implementation and affected foreign loan disbursement.

Officials also noted that, similar to the previous fiscal year, there was administrative instability at the beginning of the current fiscal year and during the interim government period. At the same time, there was a lack of confidence among development partners, which further slowed project implementation from the outset.

In addition, after the Awami League government lost power in 2024, many project directors and related officials left their positions. Appointing new project directors took time, and this situation persisted into the first half of the current fiscal year, disrupting both project implementation and fund disbursement.

Meanwhile, ERD data show that in the first eight months of the fiscal year, Bangladesh repaid nearly the same amount to development partners as it received in disbursements.

According to ERD, Bangladesh repaid $2.899 billion in principal and interest on past loans during July–February, while disbursement during the same period stood at $3.05 billion.

In the same period of the previous fiscal year, Bangladesh repaid $2.636 billion to development partners.

Officials said repayments have increased as grace periods for many previously taken loans have ended. However, on a full-year basis, repayments are still expected to remain lower than disbursements. For example, Bangladesh repaid $4.086 billion in the previous fiscal year, while disbursements were $8.56 billion. Similarly, although repayments may rise by the end of the current fiscal year, they are unlikely to exceed disbursements.

ERD data show that Bangladesh repaid $1.943 billion in principal during the first eight months, up from $1.692 billion in the same period last year.

Interest payments during this period amounted to $955.8 million, compared to $944.1 million in the same period of the previous fiscal year.

Meanwhile, Bangladesh secured $2.431 billion in foreign loan commitments during July–February, slightly higher than $2.353 billion in the same period last year.

ERD sources said that last fiscal year's student-led uprising, change of government, administrative instability, and lack of confidence among development partners contributed to lower loan commitments. Although the situation has improved in the current fiscal year, the interim government remains cautious about foreign borrowing, which has limited the pace of new commitments. However, commitments are expected to increase under a newly elected government.

Mustafa K Mujeri, executive director at the Institute for Inclusive Finance and Development, said development partners generally feel more comfortable working with a stable and democratically elected government. As a result, during the interim government period, both major loan commitments and disbursements remained low except for urgent needs. This contributed to the decline in disbursement compared to the previous fiscal year. Although commitments have increased somewhat in the first eight months, the rise is not significant.

He added that repayment of foreign loans taken in previous years has now become a major pressure. As repayment periods for loans taken under the previous government begin, the amount of repayment is increasing. Currently, disbursement and repayment are nearly at the same level, which could increase pressure on foreign exchange reserves.

According to him, if new loan inflows do not increase, this pressure may intensify in the future. At the same time, global uncertainties, including the Middle East conflict, have increased costs of energy, transport, and insurance. Importing oil and LNG from alternative sources at higher prices is putting additional strain on reserves. The current reserve stands at around $30 billion, and increasing it to $40-45 billion could bring some relief. In this situation, the government is seeking budget support from the International Monetary Fund, World Bank, and Asian Development Bank to ease pressure on reserves.

Mujeri said coordinated efforts are essential to tackle the crisis. Strengthening foreign assistance, expanding exports, boosting reserves, and controlling expenditure will help Bangladesh address these challenges.

According to ERD data, Russia disbursed the highest amount – $755.15 million – during July-February, mainly for the Rooppur power project. The World Bank disbursed $636 million, the Asian Development Bank $566.19 million, China $257.72 million, Japan $189.36 million, and India $152.89 million.

In terms of commitments, the Asian Development Bank provided the highest at $1.269 billion during the first eight months. The World Bank committed $416.25 million, while European Union countries pledged $392.07 million.

A dedicated division under Bangladesh Bank spearheads anew stolen-asset-recovery initiative with over 200 high-value non-performing loan (NPL) cases under scrutiny, each involving an estimated Tk 2.0 billion.Bangladesh market analysis

A newly established unit--Stolen Asset Recovery Division--is currently validating the amounts using data from the Credit Information Bureau (CIB), says Farhanul Gani Choudhury, adviser to the governor on stolen asset recovery.

Talking to The Financial Express, he said the 200 cases were shortlisted from NPL data submitted by commercial banks to the central bank. According to compiled information, these cases collectively account for approximately $12 billion or Tk 1.47 trillion in NPLs.

Bangladesh's total NPL volume stood at Tk 5.57 trillion as of December 2025, according to BB data.

Mr Gani clarifies that while the total NPL amount in these 200 cases is under intelligence scrutiny, it does not necessarily mean that the entire sum has been siphoned off.

"The SAR has now started working under a single platform to proceed in a structured way," he says.

The division will prioritise cases based on the number of banks affected by each NPL, he adds.

Under the second phase, SAR has engaged with 40 banks.Personal finance tools

Through civil proceedings, the division aims to determine how much of the NPL amounts in these 200 cases has actually been siphoned off the banking system.

Meanwhile, the first phase of the SAR initiative is also progressing in full swing.

"These 200 cases involve around 200 companies and individuals - a mixed group. While individuals are involved, they often operate through companies," Mr Gani says, without naming names of the suspects.

He notes that many of these borrowers are multi-bank clients, meaning a single individual has taken loans from multiple banks.

Sharif Zahir, chairman of UCB, which was the first bank to sign an NDA in the case involving former land minister Saifuzzaman Chowdhury, has said the response from litigation funders on asset recovery has so far been disappointing.

"One firm, FT, initially responded but later backtracked. Perhaps they found the amount not large enough or not sufficiently attractive," he says.Premium content access

He adds that UCB moved quickly to claim the alleged stolen assets in order to appoint an administrator. Grant Thornton has since taken over the administratorship.

"If we proceed through civil litigation, it is not that difficult to recover stolen assets. However, criminal proceedings require government-to-government agreements, which make the process more complex."

Mr Zahir expresses optimism about recovering at least part of the assets linked to Saifuzzaman Chowdhury, some of which have already been put up for sale in the UK.

On the 200 cases, Mr Gani explains that in cases where a single defaulter is linked to 10 or 15 banks, coordination becomes essential.

For cases involving only one bank, such coordination is not required, and the choice of international firm becomes less critical. However, in multi-bank exposures, a consortium or lead-bank approach is necessary.

"I have established an entirely new department. This work would not be sustainable without a strong institutional structure," he told the FE.

The SAR division consists of around 12 officials led by a director, in line with the organogram approved earlier by former BB governor Dr Ahsan H Mansur and endorsed by the current governor.

At a meeting with senior journalists on Sunday, the new BB governor reaffirmed his position to proceed on SAR without political and other interventions.

A director has already been appointed and is actively working on SAR. Previously, these responsibilities were partially handled by the Bangladesh Financial Intelligence Unit (BFIU), but now all asset- recovery functions have been consolidated under one umbrella.Bangladesh market analysis

All members of this division are officials of Bangladesh Bank. The structure includes one director from BFIU, two additional directors, four joint directors, and several assistant and deputy directors. Given the technical nature of the work, an IT specialist will also be appointed.

BFIU Director Syed Mahbub, who has been closely involved in SAR efforts from the outset, is also part of the division.

The division of crusaders for stolen asset recovery includes two to three joint directors who have completed two-year master's degrees in asset recovery from the UK, bringing valuable international expertise and knowledge of global best practices.

Under Phase 1, SAR has completed 36 non-disclosure agreements (NDAs) with 10 banks. NDAs have also been signed with nine international firms, and data sharing is now underway.

United Commercial Bank, Janata Bank, National Bank, Al-ArafahIslami Bank, Agrani Bank, AB Bank, and Islami Bank Bangladesh, among others, have signed the agreements with the law firms.

The global law and litigation firms engaged are Kroll, R1 Consortium, Interpath, Dentons/EY, DLA Piper/Unitas Global, PwC/Baker McKenzie, Omni Bridgeway, and Grant Thornton.Personal finance tools

"Data is the most critical element. Everything I have done so far has been through coordination. Now we will be able to assess how viable this data is for building cases internationally," Mr Gani further says.

He explains that prior to signing NDAs, international firms did not have access to case-level data and were relying only on broad macroeconomic estimates of capital flight.

"Now it will become clear how much of this can actually stand up in international jurisdictions. Based on this, they will need to convince their litigation funders. Once they receive positive feedback from those funders, they will proceed with commercial contracts."

The SAR division has already begun seeking feedback from international firms, with mixed responses so far.

Some banks have performed well by properly organising and indexing their data and clearly presenting their proceedings in the Money Loan Court. Others, however, have submitted unstructured data, reflecting gaps in capacity and understanding.

"I plan to organise a best-practice session where better-performing banks will demonstrate to others how to prepare and present data to the required standard," he says.

SAR has also asked international firms to formally outline their minimum data requirements to ensure clarity in expectations.

Officials have observed that not all international firms operate the same way - some are more supportive and flexible, while others are less so.

German companies are so deeply tied to both the United States and China that they cannot decouple from either without severe economic costs, according to a study by the University of Sussex and King's College London seen by Reuters on Monday.

The researchers mapped sales, production and supply-chain exposures of firms listed on Germany's DAX and MDAX indices, finding that dependence on the world's two biggest economies runs across sectors and individual companies.

Automakers and machinery groups are most reliant on China as a market, while chemical and pharmaceutical firms depend more heavily on the US for research, development and production, the study said. Digital, telecoms and semiconductor companies, meanwhile, are highly exposed to suppliers in both countries.

"Leading industrial players like Siemens and BMW were built in a fundamentally globalised system and can't decouple from either China or the US without devastating losses," University of Sussex political economist Steven Rolf, a co-author, said.

The study said BMW generates more revenue from China than from the United States, while also depending on Chinese battery supplier CATL for more than 1.4 billion euros ($1.5 billion) in inputs.

Siemens gets 24% of revenue from the United States and 12% from China, with supplier networks heavily exposed to both.

The findings underscore the difficulty for Berlin in crafting a clear strategy as US-China tensions intensify, Rolf said.

Dhaka Stock Exchange witnessed a second consecutive session of losses today (30 March) as persistent sell-offs, fueled by rising US-Israeli tensions over Iran, dragged the benchmark index down. The DSEX fell 41 points to close at 5,230.

Despite declining prices for 59% of listed stocks, turnover slightly increased by 2.69% to Tk663.87 crore, according to DSE data. The other key indices also ended lower, with the DSES down 5 points to 1,061 and the blue-chip DS30 falling 19 points to 1,979.

Among traded stocks, 111 advanced, 231 declined, and 51 remained unchanged.

Trading opened on a positive note at 10 am but lasted only seven minutes before selling pressure gripped the market, pushing indices into the red. Selling intensified in the latter part of the session, keeping stocks under pressure throughout the day.

EBL Securities said in its daily report that investor sentiment remained cautious amid ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a nationwide fuel shortage.

"The market continued its losing streak for the second consecutive session, as investors shifted focus from large-cap stocks to momentum-driven speculative scrips," the report said. "Despite a firm start, broad-based selling emerged midway through the session, intensifying toward the close and dragging the index lower."

On the sectoral front, Pharma stocks accounted for the highest share of turnover at 18.2%, followed by Engineering at 11.7% and Banks at 9.7%.

Among gainers, Hakkani Pulp and Paper led with a 9.92% rise to Tk88.6, followed by Intech Ltd with a 9.41% gain to Tk43 and IFIC First Mutual Fund up 7.69% to Tk4.2.

Prime Finance was the top loser, slipping 9.25% to Tk4.9, followed by FAS Finance down 8.57% to Tk3.2 and Fareast Finance falling 8.33% to Tk3.3.

The port city bourse, Chittagong Stock Exchange, also ended in negative territory. Its CSCX and CASPI fell by 7.1 points and 17.7 points, respectively

Bangladesh secured higher foreign loan commitments in the first eight months of the current fiscal year, yet actual disbursement fell by 26 percent compared with the same period last year, raising concerns about the country’s ability to use external funds effectively.

Between the July-February period, foreign loan disbursement dropped to $3.05 billion, down from $4.13 billion a year earlier, according to data released by the Economic Relations Division (ERD) yesterday.

The decline was driven largely by slower project aid, the primary channel for financing infrastructure and development projects.

Disbursement under project assistance fell to just above $3 billion in the first eight months of this fiscal year, compared with over $4.1 billion during the same period last year.

This slowdown comes despite nearly $40 billion in financing commitments from foreign lenders.

Analysts say the widening gap between pledged funds and actual disbursement reflects Bangladesh’s limited capacity to use external resources on time.

Foreign aid is crucial for roads, power plants, and social sector projects, but delays can reduce project benefits and increase costs.

The trend is particularly concerning as Bangladesh’s external debt servicing rises. During the July-February period, the country paid $2.9 billion in principal and interest, up from $2.63 billion a year earlier.

Deen Islam, professor of economics at Dhaka University, said the figures indicate a gradual shift from development financing to debt rollover.

“When a large portion of new external borrowing is used to service existing debt rather than finance productive investment, the net inflow of resources into the economy declines,” he said.

“Infrastructure and development spending may slow, while rising debt servicing puts additional pressure on foreign exchange reserves and the exchange rate,” Islam said.

He added that the situation could also fuel imported inflation. While not yet a crisis, he described it as a “warning sign”.

“If this trend persists, policymakers will face difficult trade-offs between taking on more debt and reallocating domestic resources away from development spending,” he said.

Meanwhile, Monzur Hossain, member (secretary) of the General Economics Division (GED) under the Planning Commission, said, “Loan disbursement is directly tied to project progress. When implementation slows, disbursement inevitably falls.”

He pointed to structural bottlenecks, particularly in investment projects.

“Many projects involve complex conditions, and meeting those requirements takes time. Land acquisition remains a major challenge in many cases,” Hossain said.

He also noted weaknesses in the execution of the Annual Development Programme (ADP) as a key factor. “Since most of these loans are linked to ADP projects, delays in overall project execution translate into slower disbursement,” he added.

During the period of the interim government, many projects were almost stagnant. However, Hossain expressed optimism about improvement in the coming months.

“Now, with a political government in place, monitoring has increased, projects are being prioritised, and delays are being scrutinised more closely,” he said.

“I expect the situation to improve soon, particularly in the final months of the fiscal year as measures taken by the Planning Commission begin to take effect,” he added.

The 14th Ministerial Conference (MC14) of the World Trade Organization (WTO) concluded early yesterday with no significant agreements, except promises to continue working towards consensus on disputed issues among member countries.

The four-day conference, which began on March 26, saw nearly 2,000 officials, including more than 90 ministers, debate key topics such as the moratorium on customs duties for electronic transmissions and broader WTO reform.

Originally scheduled to end on Sunday, the meeting stretched past midnight as ministers tried to bridge gaps on major issues.

DEADLOCK ON E-COMMERCE MORATORIUM

The WTO’s moratorium on customs duties for electronic transmissions expired yesterday after nearly three decades. Negotiations in Yaoundé continued late into the night but concluded without a final agreement.

Diplomats worked to reconcile differences between Brazil, which initially sought a two-year extension and later proposed a four-year extension with a mid-term review, and the United States, which pushed for a permanent moratorium to protect major companies such as Amazon and Apple from digital taxation.

A draft proposal for a four-year extension with a one-year sunset buffer, extending the moratorium to 2031, was also discussed but not agreed upon, reports Reuters.

Developing countries, including India, opposed a lengthy extension, arguing that the moratorium denies them potential tax revenue that could be reinvested domestically. Some 66 nations, however, agreed to an interim arrangement pending ratification.

WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said, “The e-commerce moratorium had expired, meaning countries could apply duties on electronic goods such as digital downloads and streaming. But we hope to be able to restore the moratorium and Brazil and the US were trying to reach agreement on it. They need more time and we didn’t have the time here.”

Cameroon Trade Minister Luc Magloire Mbarga Atangana, chair of MC14, added that WTO talks would continue in Geneva, expected in May.

Britain’s Business and Trade Secretary Peter Kyle called the failure to reach a collective decision in Yaoundé a “major setback for global trade.”

REFORM TALKS MAKE PARTIAL PROGRESS

Ministers and delegates made some progress drafting a plan for broader WTO reform, though no final agreements were reached, reports AFP. They were tasked with creating an action plan to revitalise the organisation, weakened by geopolitical tensions, stalled negotiations, and rising protectionism.

A draft reform roadmap outlining timelines and key issues, seen by Reuters, was close to agreement before the talks ended. Completion of any reform deal, however, will depend on resolving recurring issues, such as improving consensus-based decision-making and extending trade benefits to developing countries. Ministers also fell short of expectations on agriculture and other areas.

Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala welcomed progress in discussions on WTO reform, fisheries subsidies, and other issues.

KEY OUTCOMES

The WTO announced that ministers agreed to continue negotiations on fisheries subsidies, aiming to present recommendations at the 15th Ministerial Conference for comprehensive rules.

Two decisions were also adopted that had been previously endorsed in Geneva: improving the integration of small economies into the multilateral trading system, and enhancing the implementation of special and differential treatment provisions under the Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures (SPS) and Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT) agreements.

The WTO director-general confirmed that members would return to Geneva with drafts of the Yaoundé Ministerial Declaration on WTO Reform and Work Plan, the Ministerial Decision on Electronic Commerce, the Ministerial Decision on TRIPS Non-Violation and Situation Complaints, and the LDC package.

As energy stress spreads across Southeast Asia, governments across the region are asking China to deliver on its pledges of closer energy security cooperation by freeing up now-banned exports ​of fertiliser and fuel.

But so far China has offered only vague statements and has yet to even publicly acknowledge the export bans reported by Reuters and others as it focuses ‌on insulating its own economy from the war in Iran.

Analysts don’t expect that to change, pointing to the tension between China’s stated ambition to be a bigger player in regional affairs and the realpolitik of its commitment to keep its own economy outpacing global growth.

China is the world’s second largest fertiliser exporter and also a large supplier of fuel. For many countries in Asia including Bangladesh, the Philippines and even Australia, Chinese imports are a major source of supply, now cut off by its export bans.

Dhaka earlier this month asked China to honour existing fuel contracts, while Thai diplomats will engage Chinese counterparts to keep fertiliser shipments from China flowing if needed, officials in Bangkok said.

In Malaysia, officials said last week the Chinese export ban would worsen fertiliser rationing, including in its oil palm industry, the world’s second-largest, and add a further blow on top of the war in Iran.

Even the Philippines has sought assistance despite the two countries’ disputes over the South China Sea.

On March 17, the Philippines minister of agriculture visited China’s embassy in Manila and said China had agreed to continue fertiliser shipments. Beijing’s one-sentence readout said only that they had discussed agriculture.

The same day Australia, which imported a ​third of its jet fuel from China last year, said it was discussing jet fuel exports with Beijing.

“China may offer some ceremonial assistance, but it’s highly unlikely, if not wholly improbable, that it will share any substantive amount of its food, energy, or other reserves with other countries,” said Eric Olander, co-founder of the China-Global South Project.

In addition, we’re talking about the impact of the war in the Middle East.

In fact, analysts said Chinese policymakers were likely quietly congratulating themselves on the strategic foresight to begin stockpiling since the early 2000s, a policy that may have seemed excessive in peacetime but now looks decidedly practical.

People’s Daily, the Communist Party’s flagship newspaper, trumpeted China’s relative energy security in an editorial earlier this month ​and said the country’s foresight meant China held the “energy lifeline” in its own hands.

China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not immediately respond to questions from Reuters.

‘A TRIED AND TESTED PLAYBOOK’

China’s flagship Belt and Road infrastructure initiative ‌has seen world leaders regularly congregate in Beijing to discuss ‘win-win’ cooperation but with the region now short on fuel and fertiliser, Southeast Asian capitals are instead looking for replacements from the likes of Russia.

“China won’t want to create expectations it can’t sustain. Beijing has no desire to be a regional energy backstop for an indefinite period of disruption,” according to Ruby Osman, a senior policy adviser at the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change.

Beijing will likely stick to its tried-and-tested playbook: imposing sharp, broad curbs on energy and energy-related exports before selectively resuming trade once officials are confident domestic demand can be met, she said.

Famine and ​scarcity remain deeply embedded in China’s political consciousness, ​with the trauma of Mao Zedong’s Great Leap Forward and Cultural Revolution still close enough to remember.

“Only if China gets more comfortable with its own exposure, then I would expect meaningful support,” said Max Zenglein, senior economist at the Conference Board Asia. “I expect any support will be very transactional. Not a good position to be in if ​you are one those countries, unfortunately.”

Wang Jin, a senior fellow at the Beijing Club for International Dialogue, a think tank under China’s foreign ministry, said Beijing could also benefit if the shock pushes trading partners to accelerate investment in green and nuclear energy, sectors where China leads after years of state-backed investment.

What is more, with no major aid donor such as Japan, or regional rival, stepping in to plug shortages, China faces little pressure to do so itself, analysts said.

Olander compared the situation to the Covid-19 pandemic, when officials across the region looked to India as Asia’s main source of ⁠vaccines, only for New Delhi to halt exports as infections surged at home.

Osman said China’s partners seeking concessions would do well to remind Beijing of its own commitments.

“Maybe the key is just to quote this new bit of the five-year plan back to Beijing: ‘strengthen international cooperation in food, energy, data, biological and sea passage security, counter-terrorism and other fields.”