The economic shock from ​the Iran war hit European factories last month, suppressing demand for their goods and pushing up raw ‌material costs at the fastest rate in four years, although their Asian peers saw activity expand due to stockpiling, surveys showed on Monday.

The US-Israeli conflict with Iran, which began in late February, has upended trade, rattled financial markets and raised concerns over global energy supplies, particularly through the ​Strait of Hormuz, a key route for oil and gas shipments.

Monday’s surveys came after the heads of the International ​Energy Agency, International Monetary Fund, World Bank and World Trade Organization warned the war was straining global energy supplies.

S&P Global’s Eurozone Manufacturing PMI fell to 51.6 in May from April’s near four-year high of 52.2, but ahead of ​a preliminary estimate of 51.4.

A reading above 50.0 indicates growth.

“Although euro area manufacturers reported an expansion for a fourth successive month ​in May, the sector is showing signs of struggling under the weight of rising prices and supply disruptions emanating from the war in the Middle East,” said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

In Germany, Europe’s largest economy, the manufacturing sector stalled while French factories saw a contraction for the first time since November.

The European Central Bank will hike its deposit rate this month and at least once more ​this year to try to stop higher energy prices feeding into core inflation, according to a majority of economists polled by Reuters in ‌May.

Official data due on Tuesday is expected to show inflation rose further above the ECB’s 2 percent target last month. British factories raised their prices at the fastest rate since June 2022 last month in response to a big increase in costs.

ASIAN BUFFERS

Still, factory activity expanded in most Asian economies.

China’s private sector gauge grew for a sixth straight month and South Korea’s hit the fastest pace in ​five years, highlighting a region-wide push ​to build buffers against potential conflict-led disruptions.

And the S&P 500 and Nasdaq each ticking up about two-tenths of a percent.

The RatingDog China General Manufacturing PMI, compiled by S&P Global, fell to 51.8 in May from 52.2 in April, but was slightly better than analysts’ forecast of 51.6.

That outcome contrasted ​with an official survey showing factory activity in the world’s second-largest economy stalled last month as ​new orders contracted and input costs kept rising.

Japan’s factory activity also expanded with the PMI at 54.5 in May, slowing from April’s more than four-year high of 55.1, though firms there reported the sharpest rise in input costs since September 2022 due to higher raw material prices.

South Korea’s PMI ​rose to its highest since March 2021 at 54.8 in May, up ​from 53.6, again underlining firms’ drive to lock in supplies.

In Vietnam, the factory PMI gauge rose to 52.8 from 50.5, while Taiwan’s rose to 56.1 from 55.3, ​surveys showed. The index for the Philippines jumped to 50.8 from 48.3.

The Russian government has banned aviation fuel exports until ​November 30, it said on ​Monday, as Ukrainian strikes on Russia’s refineries and other energy infrastructure continue.

Russia ​exports jet fuel mainly by rail to ​Central Asia, including Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.“The aim of this decision is to ​ensure stability in the domestic fuel ​market,” the government’s statement said.Russia has already restricted ‌gasoline exports but has yet to action on diesel, though the Interfax news agency reported last week that measures were ​being considered.

Diesel ​production in Russia fell by about 10 percent in May, adding ​to a 10 percent monthly drop ​in April as Ukrainian drone attacks on refineries forced them to reduce or halt output, ​Reuters data showed on ​Friday, while exports of the fuel rose.

Oil prices rose more than 3 percent on Monday after Iran and the US traded strikes and Israel ordered troops to move further into Lebanon in its battle with Tehran-backed Hezbollah.

Brent futures rose $2.93 or ​3.2 percent to $94.05 a barrel at 0906 GMT. US crude futures rose $3.36 or 3.9 percent to $90.72 a ​barrel. Over May, Brent and WTI lost around 19 percent and 17 percent, respectively.

The fighting in ⁠the Middle East, after Washington hosted Israel-Lebanon peace talks on Friday, dimmed hopes that the US ​and Iran could soon announce an extension to their ceasefire.

The US said on Sunday it conducted "self-defence strikes" ​while Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said on Monday its aerospace force targeted an air base used for US attacks.

US President Donald Trump said on Friday he would soon decide on a proposed deal to extend a ceasefire announced in early ​April.

Israel would be key to any such deal, and Iran has said repeatedly that Hezbollah must be ​included. The US has proposed a "gradual de-escalation" plan, a US official said on Sunday.

Concerns are rising about mines in the ‌Strait ⁠of Hormuz, a key oil and gas shipping lane, IG analyst Tony Sycamore said in a note. "Even if an agreement is reached, it won't deliver a flood of supply," Sycamore said.

An Axios reporter said on X on Friday that Iran had dropped more mines in the strait earlier in the week.

Iran's ​Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil ​Baghaei said on Monday ⁠the delay in the diplomatic process to end the war can be explained by a lack of trust, Washington's contradictory positions and Israel's attacks on Lebanon.

Concerns ​over supply outweighed weekend economic data from China which showed stalling factory activity. ​This added to ⁠concerns the world's second-largest economy is losing momentum.

Saudi Arabia is likely to cut its official selling prices (OSPs) for crude oil to Asia in July for a second month, a Reuters survey showed.

Goldman Sachs said on Sunday weak ⁠oil demand ​in China and Europe poses a major downside risk to ​its fourth-quarter Brent crude forecast of $90 a barrel and WTI forecast of $83, although Middle East supply disruptions could still push prices ​higher.

Bangladesh is entering a critical phase in its trade outlook as it prepares for graduation from least developed country (LDC) status, according to a recent assessment by the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP).The transition is expected to reshape the country’s access to key global markets and expose exporters to higher tariffs unless new trade arrangements are secured.

Bangladesh has formally requested a deferral of its LDC graduation from November 2026 to 2029, reflecting concerns over the loss of preferential access under key schemes, particularly the European Union’s Everything but Arms (EBA) initiative.The EBA framework has long underpinned Bangladesh’s export growth, especially in the ready-made garments sector, by providing duty-free access to European markets.

Under the current regional transition timeline, Bangladesh is still expected to graduate alongside other Asian LDCs in 2026, with most major trading partners likely to offer a three-year transition buffer. This would extend EBA-level benefits until around 2029, softening the immediate impact but not fully replacing long-term preferential access.A central concern highlighted by ESCAP is the erosion of trade preferences, which could affect billions of dollars in export earnings across Asia-Pacific LDCs. For Bangladesh, the impact is expected to be most pronounced in the garments sector, where preferential margins remain a key factor in global competitiveness.The EU is also preparing a revised Generalised Scheme of Preferences (GSP) for 2027-2034, including a strengthened GSP+ framework. Bangladesh may be eligible to apply for GSP+ after graduation, but access will depend on strict compliance with international standards covering labour rights, environmental protection and governance, alongside legal commitments under conventions of the International Labour Organization.

Bangladesh has already ratified several key ILO conventions, though implementation remains under close scrutiny, particularly in areas such as workplace safety, inspections and freedom of association.

Other major markets are also undergoing policy shifts. The United Kingdom’s Developing Countries Trading Scheme (DCTS) and Japan’s Generalised System of Preferences remain important for Bangladesh’s exports, but both are increasingly linking market access to sustainability and governance conditions.

China has introduced a zero-tariff regime for all LDCs, supporting exports from the poorest economies. However, Bangladesh is expected to lose this benefit after graduation, as China does not offer a comparable preferential framework for higher-income developing countries.

At the same time, the United States’ Generalized System of Preferences remains expired, meaning Bangladesh continues to face standard Most Favoured Nation tariffs in the US market, further limiting preferential access options.

ESCAP notes that Bangladesh’s long-term trade strategy will need to shift away from reliance on unilateral preferences towards deeper regional integration and reciprocal trade agreements. Frameworks such as the Asia-Pacific Trade Agreement and broader regional integration efforts are seen as key pathways to sustaining market access after graduation.

Guyana was already the world's fastest-growing economy before the US-Israeli war on Iran drove up oil prices. Now, the tiny Caribbean nation of nearly 1 million people will reap an even bigger bonanza as the conflict reshapes global energy markets.

The war that caused one of the largest energy disruptions in history highlights the growing importance of countries including Guyana that offer political stability and geographically unrestricted access to their estimated 11 billion barrels of oil reserves. This growing windfall from crude brings pressure from business owners and locals on the government to use its billions of dollars to boost other parts of the economy.

"The world has seen too many energy booms that left behind ghost towns, depleted forests and bitter populations. Guyana will not be that story," President Irfaan Ali said in an address at Rice University's Baker Institute this month.

Rapid development by an Exxon Mobil-led oil consortium, which controls all of Guyana's oil production, grew output to more than 900,000 barrels per day in just seven years, a pace without recent precedent as offshore projects can typically take twice as long just to produce the first drop of oil. Guyana's GDP more than quadrupled to $27.5 billion between the time the taps started flowing in 2019 and 2024, according to World Bank data.

Guyana was previously one of the poorest countries in South America and oil-fuelled growth can be seen across the capital of Georgetown, where construction is taking place on new modern office buildings, upscale hotels and rows of single-family homes that resemble those that could be found in US suburbs. Exxon billboards and adverts for other petroleum companies play on the radio, serving as reminders of the industry that helped enable the growth.

More money, more problems?

The government's long-term challenge is to fortify the country against an implicit pitfall – the economic cycle of boom and bust oil prices. Guyana needs to look no further than its neighbour Venezuela for an example of how political dysfunction and overreliance on oil money can cripple an economy despite having one of the largest estimated oil reserves in the world. One of Guyana's strategies is its 2019 sovereign wealth fund holding all oil revenue, which allows the government to draw funds for development projects at a steady rate.

Crude prices, up 30% since the start of the Iran war in late February, could further swell Guyana's oil revenue. Assuming an oil price of $100 per barrel through the rest of the year at current production volumes, Guyana's share of oil revenue could be worth roughly $4.3 billion, 67% higher than last year, according to Reuters calculations.

More importantly, Guyana is poised to start receiving a significantly larger share of oil production earlier than expected. The Exxon consortium currently takes 75% of the oil to recoup its initial exploration and development costs. And now, the consortium could recover the costs this year, Exxon has said. When that happens, the country's share of the profit oil will climb from 12.5% to 50%.

Ali cautioned that expectations needed to be managed, as any windfall due to higher oil prices would be offset by higher import costs for nearly all goods including fuel and fertiliser.

"This is the complexity of the messaging when people wake up every morning and see the headlines that you're flush with money, it drives a certain expectation," he said in his Baker Institute address.

Some local infrastructure has not improved at the same pace that the oil industry has developed. Open sewage drains line the streets of Georgetown and electricity outages remain a common occurrence.

A changed world

Guyana sits at the centre of a region that includes the established oil and gas economies of Venezuela and Trinidad and Tobago, as well as Suriname, where the sector is emerging. The area benefits from direct, unrestricted access to the Atlantic, without maritime chokepoints vulnerable to blockades like the Strait of Hormuz.

Guyana's low break-even prices in the $25 to $35 per barrel range, and proximity to US markets that are supportive of fossil fuel development, further compound long-term advantages, said Tarron Khemraj, a professor of economics and international studies at the New College of Florida, who has studied Caribbean countries including Guyana.

Spot prices for Guyana's four crude grades – valued for their light to medium sweet quality – have surged over the past three months, with the Liza benchmark reaching a high of $120 per barrel from $68.98 on 27 February before the conflict in the Middle East began.

Even if traffic through the Strait of Hormuz resumes soon and oil prices return to pre-war levels, experts say Guyana's track record as a geopolitically stable source of oil will further solidify.

"The war may end next month, but it will be a changed world," Khemraj said.

Still, numbers that look like a boom may belie the full reality of the broader economy.

While Guyana has recorded double-digit percentage GDP growth each year since oil production began, most of that expansion has been concentrated in the petroleum sector, rather than broad-based activity. Oil and gas and support services accounted for more than 75% of the country's GDP last year, according to government data.

Sharing the wealth

As part of its effort to make sure more of the oil revenue trickles down, the government is also moving to expand its local content law, originally passed in 2021, that requires oil and gas firms to contract with Guyanese-owned suppliers and vendors in a number of specific areas, such as janitorial, food or transport.

The regulation requires petroleum companies to procure a certain percentage of services from Guyanese businesses, for example, 25% of medical services and 90% of catering services. The government is considering amendments to add more service areas and increase the percentage requirements for some existing ones, Michael Munroe, director of the local content secretariat, said in an interview.

Business owners say that expanding the requirements will help support more jobs and the development of skilled labour.

"We're able to provide all of the same medical services as an international company," said Ayesha Wilburg, founder and CEO of a Georgetown-based health clinic.

Rising oil activity has also led to a similar explosion in demand for private transport services in Georgetown, where residents often travel by cab.

Nazim Baksh, general manager of Sean's Transportation Services, said the company expanded from seven employees to about 20 and also upgraded its fleet from saloons to add more SUVs.

Challenges remain, however, including complaints from Guyanese business owners about so-called fronting. Panellists at the Guyana Energy Conference in February acknowledged the problem, where foreign companies use local entities but retain actual control of the business.

Vanita Ally, medical director and founder of Phoenix Clinicare, a Guyanese-owned medical centre, said that receiving a certificate to provide services to oil firms has not resulted in much additional revenue and inflation is also increasing her operating costs.

"International companies are benefiting a lot more than local people (from the oil industry)," Ally said.

Drivers are now paying more at the pump, like other countries, adding to cost-of-living concerns. Guyana lacks a refinery and must import petrol, diesel and other refined products.

"For Guyana, as a country that is now a net producer and exporter of energy, (higher oil prices) can mean positive things, but of course, that isn't necessarily what people see and feel every day because it means that energy prices are going up," said Alistair Routledge, president of Exxon's Guyana operations at a press conference in March.

"We recognise this is a mixed blessing for people in Guyana."

From Europe to Japan and Switzerland, huge bond issues by Big Tech companies are proving that smaller markets, often overshadowed by the US, can punch above their weight in the $40 trillion world of corporate debt.

Google-parent Alphabet is already one of the biggest outstanding borrowers in the sterling and Swiss franc corporate bond markets, while Amazon raised 14.5 billion euros ($16.88 billion) in March from an eight-part deal, the largest ever in the euro corporate bond market, according to LSEG.

Debt issues by so-called "hyperscalers" - or Big Tech companies - outside the United States are part of a push to diversify their funding early on, bankers said, as they look to finance trillions of dollars of investment in AI infrastructure, especially data centres, in the years ahead.

Raising debt in foreign currencies can also help the companies hedge the currency risk from their global assets, while taking advantage of relatively lower borrowing costs in places like Europe.

Alphabet smashed records across markets, with its yen, Canadian dollar, Swiss franc and sterling deals all setting borrowing records in those currencies.

"If you look at the pace of investment of these companies and if you fast forward 12 months, some of these companies are already going to become among the biggest issuers globally in any currency," said Giulio Baratta, co-head of investment-grade finance at BNP Paribas.

In Europe, Alphabet and Amazon have helped push up borrowing by non-financial US firms to over 60 billion euros ($69.85 billion) this year, another record.

Record debt sales

Morgan Stanley expects around 50 billion euros of total borrowing from the hyperscalers in euro debt this year, which could help lead the US to overtake France as the euro zone's biggest source of overall corporate debt.

"A lot of these markets, including euro, have evolved and now offer a lot more depth and opportunity for larger capital raising than was historically the case," said John Servidea, global co-head of investment grade finance at JPMorgan, which led recent deals for the two hyperscalers.

With the hyperscaler deals, internationally placed non-financial corporate bond sales tracked by LSEG have surged in markets like the Swiss franc and yen this year.

The ability to raise significant amounts of money in such markets has not gone unnoticed by US companies beyond the hyperscalers, Servidea said.

"They're definitely looking at other markets more seriously than they would have previously."

More broadly, borrowing has also surged in currencies like the Australian and Hong Kong dollars as international companies diversify their funding sources.

Investors, meanwhile, have shifted focus to diversifying away from the US dollar given geopolitical tensions and policy uncertainty.

Building exposure to AI

Hyperscalers have seen their non-dollar issuance double to 30% of their total bond funding this year, according to Bank of America.

Raising money abroad also means Big Tech can leave longer periods between tapping the US market, JPMorgan's Servidea said, while borrowing at rates that are in some cases cheaper than the US dollar market, or at least similar.

Heavy borrowing can weigh on a borrower's bonds, and analysts see signs that hyperscalers are underperforming the US corporate bond market. Visiting it less often may help limit the hit.

Baratta at BNP Paribas, which also led deals for Alphabet and Amazon, said these companies were mainly keeping the funds in the currency they are raising rather than swapping them back to dollars.

As for investors, they're keen to build exposure to the AI theme in international bond markets, where technology names previously had a limited presence.

Nicolas Forest, chief investment officer at Candriam, for example, is buying into the euro deals from hyperscalers to build exposure to the tech sector in the European bond market.

By the end of April, Alphabet had already become the fourth-largest borrower in ICE BofA's sterling corporate bond index after just one round of issuance, and the sixth-largest in Swiss francs.

As tech issuance grows, corporate bond markets outside the US will become more exposed to tech sector developments, in good and bad times.

"If there are any problems with (AI), it will probably create more volatility," said David Zahn, head of European fixed income at Franklin Templeton.

Bangladesh is lagging behind neighbouring countries in buffalo milk production due to low productivity, poor breeding practices, and limited investment in the dairy sector.

Buffalo milk accounts for 65 percent of total milk production in Pakistan, 43 percent in India, 57 percent in Nepal, and only 5 percent in Bangladesh, according to data from the Department of Livestock Services (DLS).

Pakistan produces 60.01 million tonnes of milk, of which 39.80 million tonnes come from buffalo. In India, total milk production stands at 239.03 million tonnes, with 104 million tonnes from buffalo. Nepal produces 2.90 million tonnes, including 1.65 million tonnes from buffalo.

In Bangladesh, total milk production is 16.20 million tonnes, against an annual demand of 16.23 million tonnes, but only 0.08 million tonnes comes from buffalo.

Md Bayezur Rahman, director for administration at the DLS, told The Daily Star that Bangladesh lags behind mainly due to a smaller buffalo population and the lack of targeted development in the sector.

He said that in those countries, buffalo populations have historically been higher due to natural conditions, while in Bangladesh research is underway and a buffalo development project has already been initiated.

DLS data shows buffalo numbers in the country have been rising steadily. In fiscal year 2024–25, the figure stood at 15.32 lakh, up from 15.24 lakh the previous year and 14.16 lakh in FY23.

Gautam Kumar Deb, principal scientific officer and head of a division at the Bangladesh Livestock Research Institute (BLRI), said the low contribution of buffalo milk is rooted in the historical use of buffaloes as draft animals rather than dairy producers.

Unlike in India, Pakistan, and Nepal -- where buffaloes have long been bred for milk -- buffaloes in Bangladesh were primarily used for ploughing fields and pulling carts in low-lying areas, resulting in native breeds with low milk-yielding capacity.

He said the buffalo population declined by around 50 percent after independence as their role in agriculture diminished, though numbers have since stabilised and are gradually rising.

Buffaloes are mainly raised in char and coastal areas, where most farmers rely on natural grazing. In remote char areas, transporting milk to markets is difficult, making calf rearing and meat production a more profitable option for many farmers.

Deb said buffalo farming in Bangladesh remains at a stage comparable to where cattle farming was in the 1980s. The BLRI, DLS, and Bangladesh Milk Producers’ Co-operative Union Limited have been working to introduce high-yielding Indian buffalo breeds, with research populations already established. Improved animals are expected to reach farmers within one to two years.

A buffalo development project launched in July 2020 is nearing completion, with both infrastructure and research components more than 95 percent complete.

Jahangir Alam Khan, former director general of the BLRI and an agricultural economist, said buffaloes have historically received little attention in Bangladesh, where livestock development efforts largely focused on cows. He said continued government support could lead to significant progress over the next 15 to 20 years, and that expanding buffalo farming could help meet domestic demand and reduce reliance on imported buffalo meat.

At an event in Dhaka yesterday marking World Milk Day 2026, State Minister for Fisheries and Livestock Sultan Salauddin Tuku said Bangladesh must increase milk production to reduce import dependence.

He said the government would take measures to expand production capacity with a view to building future export potential in the dairy sector.

Every budget season in Bangladesh unfolds with a familiar ritual. The finance ministry unveils an ambitious revenue collection target, wrapped in promises of growth, macroeconomic stability, and development, while economists raise quiet eyebrows. The National Board of Revenue then spends the rest of the fiscal year scrambling to close an ever-widening gap.

The current fiscal year 2025-26 is proving to be no different. Revenue growth has remained sluggish amid a slowing economy, weakening private sector expansion, persistent inflation, and mounting pressure on businesses already struggling with rising costs and deep financial uncertainty.

Compounding these challenges are the NBR’s own institutional inefficiencies, which have further undermined collection efforts, leaving the revenue authority staring at a shortfall approaching Tk 1 lakh crore in the first nine months of FY26.

Despite these strains, the state’s appetite for revenue continues to grow. Rising expenditure demands are driven by the new government’s pledges on social protection programmes, including several targeted cards and higher allocations for health and education. This has only widened the distance between what Bangladesh needs and what it can raise.

Against this backdrop, the government is preparing another ambitious target for FY27 of over Tk 6 lakh crore, a 20 percent increase over this fiscal year’s revised budget, aimed at lifting the tax-to-GDP ratio that fell to just 6.8 percent last year, one of the lowest in the world for an economy of Bangladesh’s size and trajectory.

This reality is difficult to avoid: Bangladesh’s fiscal framework is increasingly caught between rising expenditure demands and a revenue system struggling to keep pace with economic reality. Each year, the targets grow taller. But the gap between ambition and achievement widens.

Over the last decade, the tax administration has been missing its targets.

For instance, the last fiscal year (FY25), the tax authority’s overall receipts were Tk 370,874 crore, falling short of its revised target by Tk 92,626 crore. The government initially aimed to collect taxes of Tk 480,000 crore in FY25 but ultimately slashed the target by Tk 18,500 crore.

Although such shortfalls have become almost routine, they are increasingly exposing deeper structural weaknesses in the country’s tax administration and broader economic governance. The problem lies not only in poor collection performance, but also in the way revenue targets are set-- often unrealistically and without adequate alignment with prevailing economic conditions.

This ‘unplanned’ targeting system has turned into a persistent institutional failure, placing enormous pressure on NBR officials to meet ambitious goals through ad hoc and often arbitrary tax collection measures. In many cases, that pressure ultimately trickles down to ordinary citizens and compliant businesses, further worsening public frustration and weakening confidence in the tax system itself.

On top of that, the tax system badly needs rigorous reform and automation, with the separation of tax policy from tax administration. Unfortunately, the process that began with the interim government has now stalled after being lapsed by the Parliament.

Following widespread criticism, the BNP-led government later formed a nine-member committee to review the Revenue Policy and Revenue Management Ordinance, 2025, along with its subsequent amendment. The committee, headed by Prime Minister’s Adviser on Public Administration Ismail Zabiullah, has been tasked with scrutinising the contentious reform measures and assessing their administrative and policy implications.

Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury has recently acknowledged as much and gone further, offering a rare public critique of the mindset that has long governed tax policy in Bangladesh.

“Tax policymakers need to understand the pain of business, the pain of industry, and the pain of ordinary people,” he said at a recent discussion in Dhaka.

“A certain mindset has developed in taxation: ‘I need tax, so take this much percent from here, that much percent from there.’ When tax falls short, the thinking becomes-- take this much from here, that much from there. It is simply a matter of making the numbers add up.”

“By trying to make the numbers add up through taxation, you cannot bring about any real change,” he said.

That is precisely why policymakers are now speaking of the need for a qualitative transformation, one that moves beyond bureaucratic entanglements, arbitrary target-setting and reactive tax measures.

If pursued properly, the ongoing reform efforts could provide Bangladesh with an opportunity to rebuild a more rational, efficient and credible tax system.

Unless the country can break free from this pattern of “big budgets and bigger revenue deficits”, the ritual will continue unchanged. Targets will rise, collections will fall short, deficits will deepen, and next year, someone will once again sit down, sharpen a pencil, and write an even bolder number than before.

Prime Minister's Office (PMO) Spokesperson Mahdi Amin yesterday (1 June) said the government has made a limited adjustment to fuel prices in line with global market trends.

"As we do not produce fuel internally, we are fully dependent on imports. So, any global price increase directly affects us. The adjustment has been made in line with international market conditions, and the increase is limited," he said while speaking at a press conference at the PMO.

The press conference was held at the Karobi Hall of the Prime Minister's Office to brief the media on various public-oriented initiatives and programmes taken on the orders of the prime minister for smooth celebrations of Eid-ul-Adha.

Responding to a question, Mahdi Amin said Bangladesh delayed raising fuel prices longer than many other countries despite growing international pressure.

"Oil prices have increased across the world since the outbreak of the Middle East conflict. Many countries have already raised prices, while Bangladesh is among those that adjusted them relatively late," he said.

The PMO spokesperson said fuel prices in Bangladesh still remain lower compared to many neighbouring countries, helping the government keep inflation under control.

"Overall, as global oil supply and prices are changing, Bangladesh has made a limited price adjustment in line with international trends," he said.

Mahdi Amin said the latest adjustment was made considering global fuel supply conditions and rising international prices.

Replying to another question, Mahdi Amin said the government, under the leadership of Prime Minister Tarique Rahman, has been making every possible effort over the past three months to deliver what a truly accountable government can achieve.

Asked whether remarks made by State Minister for Primary and Mass Education Bobby Hajjaj regarding Dhaka University embarrassed the government following strong reactions from university teachers and students, he highlighted the historic role of Dhaka University and other public universities in the country's major democratic and political movements.

"The contribution of Dhaka University and other public universities is deeply embedded in Bangladesh's history – from the Language Movement and the 1969 Mass Uprising to the Liberation War, the anti-autocracy movement of 1990 and the July mass uprising," the PMO spokesperson said.

He said many individuals currently serving in important state positions emerged from Dhaka University and other public universities on the basis of merit and competence.

Mahdi Amin also noted that the country's private university sector began its journey during the government of former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia in 1992 and has made significant progress over the years.

He said private universities also played an important role during the July movement, standing alongside public universities and people from all walks of life.

"We do not see Dhaka University, North South University or any other university separately. We believe all educational institutions complement one another rather than compete with each other," he said.

The PMO spokesperson said students frequently move between public and private universities for undergraduate and postgraduate studies, reflecting a shared national education system that helps produce skilled, capable and responsible citizens.

"As an elected government, we believe that what matters is not which university someone attended but their honesty, competence and merit," he said.

Mahdi Amin said the government wants to build a discrimination-free Bangladesh where talent and qualifications are properly recognised and where all universities receive policy support from the state.

Responding to a question regarding the buffalo named after US President Donald Trump, now kept at the National Zoo, he said the government's foremost responsibility is to maintain stability, law and order, and social harmony.

The PMO spokesperson said authorities wanted to avoid any situation that could trigger unnecessary controversy or create discomfort at home or abroad.

"A responsible and accountable government always seeks to move the country forward in a positive and festive environment where everyone can participate with goodwill and sincerity," he said.

Mahdi Amin described the handling of the matter as a prudent decision taken through government channels and later implemented as part of a state decision.

The world risks facing a deeper food security crisis in 2026 and 2027 unless governments act quickly to cushion the impact of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, the head of the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has warned.

“The decisions we make now will determine whether this remains a manageable shock, or evolves into a deeper global food security crisis in 2026 and 2027, and beyond,” FAO Director-General Qu Dongyu said at a special event on the Middle East crisis during Rome Nutrition Week in Italy from May 25 to May 28.

Describing the situation as “a systemic shock to the global agrifood system”, he said the biggest impacts may emerge months from now as farmers cut back on planting and fertiliser use because of rising production costs and supply chain constraints.

According to the FAO, severe disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have already affected the movement of oil, liquefied natural gas, sulfur and fertilisers, driving up agricultural input costs and putting upward pressure on seed prices because of their dependence on fertilisers. As energy prices rise, agrifood systems become more expensive across all regions.

Input import-dependent countries, in particular, are facing rising bills, while vulnerable households are losing purchasing power as inflation erodes incomes, the UN agency said.

For many countries, especially in Africa and parts of Asia, these impacts are not occurring in isolation. They are compounding existing pressures from debt distress, climate shocks, conflict and constrained public finances.

Bangladesh meets most of its fertiliser requirements through imports, and Gulf nations such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are major suppliers.

In the fiscal year 2023-24, the country’s demand for urea was 27 lakh tonnes, of which more than 17 lakh tonnes had to be imported, according to Bangladesh Chemical Industries Corporation data.

As global prices of fuel and fertiliser -- especially urea -- have risen, Bangladesh is already feeling the strain.

The FAO chief said the actions taken now will be critical in determining whether the world can manage the shock caused by the situation in the Strait of Hormuz or face a far more serious food security crisis in the years to come.

“We must act early before humanitarian and economic costs rise,” the director-general said.

The warning comes days after the FAO cautioned that the closure of the strategic waterway could trigger a severe global food price crisis within six to 12 months if preventive measures are not taken.

FAO Chief Economist Maximo Torero earlier said the situation should not be seen as a temporary shipping problem but as the beginning of a broader agrifood shock that could spread through global food systems via higher energy costs, fertiliser shortages, lower crop yields and food inflation.

The impact is already visible. The FAO Food Price Index, which tracks monthly changes in the international prices of a basket of globally traded food commodities, rose for a third consecutive month in April, driven by high energy costs and turmoil linked to the conflict in the Middle East.

To reduce the risks, the FAO urged countries to avoid export restrictions on fertilisers and agricultural inputs, support farmers through focused assistance and ensure timely financing for food production.

The UN agency also called for greater diversification of trade routes, stronger regional integration, strategic reserves and more resilient agrifood systems to reduce dependence on critical trade chokepoints.

The FAO has warned that the situation could become even more challenging if a strong El Niño event materialises, disrupting rainfall patterns and agricultural production in several regions.

“We have a window to act, but that window is narrowing,” Qu said.

The FAO said traditional emergency packages centred exclusively on fertiliser-intensive systems may no longer be viable under current conditions.

“Countries should support adaptive strategies such as intercropping, improving nitrogen efficiency and promoting crops that are less dependent on synthetic fertilisers.”

It suggested prioritised support, saying resources should be directed towards the most vulnerable populations through well-designed social protection systems and rural support mechanisms.

Just four years after entering mobile phone manufacturing, RFL is now expanding into local production of telecom service-related equipment, including routers and vehicle tracking devices (VTDs), under its Proton brand.

PRAN-RFL Group, one of the country’s largest conglomerates, has received preliminary approval from the Bangladesh Telecommunication Regulatory Commission (BTRC) to locally manufacture and assemble the products under its electronics arm, RFL Electronics Limited.

According to official documents reviewed by The Daily Star, the regulator has also decided to conduct an on-site inspection of the company’s manufacturing facilities before issuing a temporary enlistment certificate for telecommunication service-related equipment.

On May 3, RFL Electronics presented its manufacturing roadmap to BTRC officials, who found the proposal “primarily satisfactory,” according to meeting documents.

RFL started manufacturing Proton mobile phones in late 2022.

Industry observers say the initiative highlights a transformation within Bangladesh’s industrial sector, where local companies traditionally focused on plastic goods and household appliances are increasingly investing in technology hardware and smart devices.

The telecom equipment segment is seen as particularly promising given rising domestic demand for internet connectivity, digital services and smart monitoring solutions.

Vehicle tracking devices are witnessing increasing demand amid the rapid expansion of logistics, ride-sharing, e-commerce delivery and fleet management services in Bangladesh.

Businesses are increasingly using tracking systems to improve operational efficiency and security.

Demand for routers is also growing steadily as broadband internet penetration expands across urban and semi-urban areas. Industry estimates suggest Bangladesh now has around 1.4 crore Wi-Fi users, creating a sizable market for networking devices.

Market analysts say Bangladesh’s router market is expected to continue growing through the end of the decade, driven by remote work, digitalisation and rising household internet usage.

The market currently includes more than 200 models across different price ranges and consumer segments.

International brands such as TP-Link, Xiaomi and Huawei dominate much of the consumer market, while brands like Tenda remain popular because of affordability and strong signal coverage.

India’s foreign exchange reserves fell to a more than one-year low of $681.4 ​billion in the week ended May 22, from $688.89 billion ‌a week earlier, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) data showed on Friday.

The $7.5 billion decline was largely due to a $4.5 ​billion fall in the value of the ​central bank’s gold holdings, week-on-week.

The value of the RBI’s foreign currency assets also shrunk by ​nearly $3 billion to $543 billion.

Changes in foreign currency assets, expressed ​in dollar terms, include the effect of appreciation or depreciation of other currencies in the reserves.

The RBI has been selling ​dollars to defend the beleaguered rupee, which has ​declined 4 percent since the US-Iran war began, as surging energy ‌prices sparked capital outflows and clouded India’s macroeconomic outlook.

In the week to which the data pertains, the rupee slid to a record low of 96.96 per dollar ​before being shored ​up by firm RBI intervention over multiple trading sessions, including likely on Friday.

It ended the ​session at 95 per dollar, up ​0.7 percent week-on-week. Foreign exchange reserves include India’s Reserve Tranche position in the International Monetary Fund.

Inflation in the euro zone’s four largest economies hovered ​above the European Central Bank’s 2 percent target for a third straight month in May, preliminary data showed ‌on Friday, as a rise in fuel costs triggered by the Iran war began to feed through to other prices.

Readings from France, Italy, Spain and Germany are likely to cement the case for a rate hike from the European Central Bank next month and stoke some worries about whether high inflation ​is beginning to take root in the euro zone.

Both Spain and Italy reported strong increases in the ​price of transport and entertainment activities, a likely sign of the knock-on effect of higher fuel costs. Measures of underlying inflation rose both in Italy, to 1.8 percent from 1.6 percent, and in Spain, to 2.9 percent ​from 2.8 percent. France saw a 4.1 percent jump in the cost of fresh food and a slight increase in services inflation.

“We ​are not at the peak yet,” said Nadia Gharbi, a senior economist at Pictet Wealth Management, who expects euro zone inflation to rise until August. “A lot will depend on the situation in the Middle East and we have as a baseline that the situation will ​normalise by the end of June.”

Hopes of a deal to end the war between the United States and Iran ​have pushed oil prices down substantially since the end of April, with a barrel of Brent crude selling for $92 versus $118 back then. Still, ‌prices remain well above the around $70 a barrel level seen just before the war.

A RELATIVELY MILD INFLATION WAVE

Headline inflation was more of a mixed bag. National gauges of price growth rose in France, to 2.8 percent from 2.5 percent, and in Italy, to 3.2 percent from 2.7 percent, but remained stable in Spain at 3.2 percent and fell to 2.6 percent from 2.9 percent in Germany, which implemented ​a fuel discount for May ​and June as part of a package to cushion the impact of higher petrol prices.

“Today’s inflation numbers should not be read as a sign that the inflation wave is already over before it actually started ​but rather as a confirmation that this is a relatively mild inflation wave,” said ​ING’s economist Carsten Brzeski.

All three indexes posted both weekly and monthly gains, with the S&P 500 recording its ninth straight weekly gain, it’s longest streak since December of 2023. Euro zone-wide data due on Tuesday is expected to put headline inflation at 3.3 percent in May, with a core gauge excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco at 2.4 percent.

“This information so far hints at a further rise in headline inflation, and some increase in ​core inflation,” JPMorgan economist Raphael Brun-Aguerre said in a note.

France continued ​to see deflation in manufacturing prices, strengthening the view that the current inflation shock should be smaller than the one that followed the Covid pandemic ​and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, according to Bersingeco economist Sylvain Bersinger.

Trading and official activities on the country’s two stock exchanges—the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) and Chittagong Stock Exchange (CSE)—will resume tomorrow (Monday) after a week-long Eid-ul-Azha holiday.

The bourses remained closed from May 25 to May 31, including weekly holidays, on the occasion of Eid-ul-Azha, one of the largest religious festivals for Muslims.

Trading hours will return to the regular schedule, beginning at 10:00 am and continuing until 2:30 pm, including a 10-minute post-closing session, according to DSE officials.

Before the Eid break, the market ended slightly higher on May 24 as bargain hunters picked up undervalued blue-chip stocks, although overall investor sentiment remained cautious.

The benchmark DSEX index gained 7.5 points, or 0.14 per cent, to close at 5,336.

The DSE30 Index, comprising blue-chip stocks, edged up 0.54 points to 2,030, while the DSE Shariah Index (DSES) advanced 5 points to 1,082.

The Chittagong Stock Exchange also closed in positive territory on the final trading day before the holiday. The CSE All Share Price Index (CASPI) rose 71 points to 14,909, while the Selective Categories Index (CSCX) gained 38 points to finish at 9,169.

Bangladesh Finance made a significant turnaround by securing a profit of Tk 225 million in 2025 from one of the highest losses - Tk 7.83 billion - in the country's non-bank financial institution (NBFI) sector a year earlier.

The achievement was mainly driven by strong recoveries from stressed loans, said Md. Kyser Hamid, managing director and CEO of the company.

The company recovered around Tk 1.77 billion in 2025 from stressed loans, he said, adding that loan rescheduling and lower provisions also contributed to the latest financial performance.

A year ago, Bangladesh Finance set aside money to maintain full provisions against defaulted loans and even stressed loans.

"Usually, provision is kept only for non-performing loans, but we allocated additional interest suspense and provisions against stressed loans in the past two years."

If any client fails to pay loan instalments for more than three consecutive months, their account gets suspended and the pending interest is not shown as income.

Bangladesh Finance kept provisions against investments of Tk 1.66 billion in 2023 and Tk 8.36 billion in 2024.

The CEO said the management had set aside more than what was necessary as interest suspense and kept higher provisions than required in 2023 and 2024, considering that the company might have to bear further financial shocks in the future.

These measures were taken to mitigate unforeseen credit risks, address potential losses early, prevent further deterioration and defaults, ensure adequate reserves, and safeguard overall financial health, he said.

With such precautionary measures already in place, aggressive efforts in 2025 to recover and reschedule defaulted loans enabled the company to reverse a substantial amount of provisions previously maintained.

Echoing Mr Hamid, Md. Sajjadur Rahman Bhuiyan, group chief financial officer, explained that after facing heavy provisioning in FY24, the company strategically focused on recovery in FY25.

"By deploying management to accelerate settlements and rescheduling major corporate loans, we successfully released substantial provisions, ultimately driving the company back to profitability."

Bangladesh Finance booked a provision write-back of Tk 2.13 billion, a dramatic reversal from the Tk 7.85 billion provision recorded in 2024, according to its auditor's opinion published on Sunday.Regional business directory

"The write-back significantly boosted the company's bottom line and marked a major improvement in asset quality management," said the auditor.

Mr Hamid said continued recovery initiatives, disciplined risk management and supportive regulatory policies were expected to further improve the company's financial health and support sustainable long-term growth.

However, the auditor warned that Bangladesh Finance still faces serious financial vulnerabilities.

It pointed out that the company continued to operate with negative consolidated equity of Tk 5.47 billion as of December 2025.

The auditor noted that the financial statements had nevertheless been prepared on a going concern basis after the management provided justification that the company would be able to continue operations in the foreseeable future.

Bangladesh Finance said its management conducted a detailed assessment in line with Bangladesh Bank guidelines and International Accounting Standard (IAS) 1 to evaluate whether the company could continue as a going concern.

The assessment considered financial performance, liquidity conditions, asset quality and capital structure.

According to the company, its board believes the institution has adequate resources and recovery plans in place to continue operations despite the negative capital position.Wealth management advice

The company also highlighted a sharp improvement in its provision coverage ratio, which rose to 496.96 per cent at the end of 2025, indicating a strong cushion against potential future credit losses.

Capital adequacy indicators also improved during the year, although they remained below regulatory requirements.

The standalone capital adequacy ratio improved to negative 31.84 per cent from negative 33.81 per cent a year earlier, while the consolidated capital adequacy ratio stood at negative 24.29 per cent.

Meanwhile, net asset value per share also showed signs of recovery. Consolidated NAV per share improved to negative Tk 28.85 in 2025 from negative Tk 30.05 in the previous year.

To restore financial stability, the company has prepared a long-term capital management plan along with a seven-year financial projection and a liquidity management strategy aimed at rebuilding capital strength and improving liquidity conditions, said the auditor.

The management acknowledged that confidence in the financial sector remains weak but said ongoing restructuring initiatives and expected regulatory support would help stabilise the company further.

The auditor also confirmed that subsidiaries - Bangladesh Finance Securities and Bangladesh Finance Capital - received unmodified audit opinions for 2025.

Recovery continues in Q1, 2026

Bangladesh Finance sustained its recovery momentum in the first quarter of 2026, posting a 120 per cent year-on-year increase in consolidated profit to Tk 20.71 million.

The company said the performance in the January-March period resulted from capital gains from investments in securities and further reversal of provisions maintained against loans, leases and investments.

It has sustained its recovery at a time when the sector overall has been under pressure from rising non-performing loans, liquidity stress and weakening depositor confidence over the past several years.

Predictable policies, improving liquidity flows and rebuilding investor confidence dominates the upcoming national budget as Bangladesh navigates a challenging economic landscape marked by inflation, sluggish investment and financial-sector vulnerabilities.

Talking to The Financial Express, days before the new government's maiden budget lands in parliament, Dr Rashed Al Titumir also explains that the government's economic strategy is built around a five-year framework of "recovery, restoration and reconstruction for acceleration".

"The budget size remains relatively small compared to the size of our economy and the financing needs in health and education," he says, stressing the need to increase public spending to reduce high out-of-pocket healthcare expenditures and build a skilled workforce through the promotion of technical education.

Asked about amendments to the Bank Resolution Act and efforts to address the banking-sector crisis, Dr Titumir says the government has adopted a diversified approach and is seeking strategic international partners to strengthen financial institutions.

"Bangladesh must better integrate with international banking standards and explore opportunities in the global Islamic finance market to benefit depositors, trade financiers and the broader economy."Digital news subscription

The government is also focusing on improving liquidity flows within the financial system.

"We must ensure the flow of liquidity. This requires proper incentives to increase the velocity of money. Banks holding excess liquidity should play a greater role in supporting productive investment," he says.

While acknowledging the current stagflationary pressures, the professor of development economics emphasizes that the government is pursuing economic correction rather than financial repression.

"We do not want financial repression. Our objective is to correct distortions and ensure that investors have access to funds without facing excessive financing costs."

Dr Titumir stresses coordination between fiscal and monetary policies while maintaining the operational independence of the central bank, free from political intervention.

On relations with the IMF, he says Bangladesh would continue discussions with the Fund to ensure that future policy commitments reflect the country's economic realities.

Describing the previous Hasina administration as "debtholic," he argues that the government had accepted several IMF conditions under the bailout programme that may not fully align with Bangladesh's current economic context.Bangladesh investment guides

"We will continue negotiations based on our own policy priorities and development needs."

Emphasizing the urgency of restoring international confidence as a prime objective, he notes that Bangladesh's debt-risk rating by the IMF from low to medium was a "hemorrhage" for the country's ability to access concessional financing.

"Lower international ratings affect investment, financing costs and market access. Consistent policies, macroeconomic stability and stronger institutions are essential for rebuilding credibility."

The government is also seeking to position Bangladesh as a regional logistics and connectivity hub by attracting internationally reputed port and logistics operators.

"We want to build Bangladesh into a logistics hub and create a benchmark that attracts internationally reputed operators through an inclusive and competitive process."

He says the government has already initiated investment discussions with stakeholders from Singapore, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Denmark and Japan, particularly regarding opportunities around the Chattogram Economic Corridor.

Projects may be implemented through public-private partnerships, although other investment models are also being explored to ensure trade and economic benefits for Bangladesh.Development strategy reports

Dr Titumir highlights the importance of multimodal transport systems and stronger regional connectivity with Nepal, Bhutan, China, Myanmar and ASEAN economies.

Regarding state-owned enterprises, he says public resources should be concentrated on essential public services such as education, healthcare and social protection.

The government is considering leasing closed factories under BJMC and BTMC through a transparent and competitive process, he adds.

The adviser strikes a note of optimism about restoring confidence in Bangladesh's capital market, noting that BNP-led governments had not experienced major stock- market scams.

"Investors have repeatedly suffered from market manipulation and weak enforcement. Restoring trust requires stronger governance and regulatory oversight," he says.

On evolving trade issues with the United States, Dr Titumir says Bangladesh remains committed to respecting international agreements while continuing consultations to protect its national interests.

"The US situation is evolving too as tariff issues go to Supreme Court."Currency exchange tools

There are issues that require consultation and dialogue.

Despite current challenges, Dr Titumir remains cautiously optimistic about Bangladesh's prospects.

"We are pursuing a strategy of recovery, restoration and reconstruction. With policy consistency, institutional reforms and renewed confidence, Bangladesh can unlock its growth potential and strengthen its position in the regional economy," he says.

Bangladesh's import policy in the making appears at odds with emerging trade requirements in the European Union and the United States as it proposes allowing apparel exporters to qualify for incentives with a minimum 30-percent local value addition.

Industry leaders say the EU's proposed Generalised Scheme of Preferences Plus (GSP+) framework will require "double transformation" for garment exports, which they estimate would translate into around 40-percent local value addition.Local trade insights

Similarly, exporters say recent US trade rules require at least 40-percent local value addition, failing which shipments could be treated as transshipments.

To qualify for the EU's proposed GSP+ framework, Bangladeshi garment exporters will need to comply with the double-transformation requirement, which industry leaders estimate would require around 40-percent local value addition - a level already achieved by many knitwear manufacturers, though.

However, woven-garment manufacturers, which typically have lower domestic value addition, may find it more difficult to retain duty-free access to the EU market following Bangladesh's graduation from least-developed-country (LDC) status in November 2026, according to trade economists and industry insiders.

The government, however, has also sought a deferral of the country's graduation process to leave the world's poor-country club.

"We proposed lowering the threshold to 20 per cent," says BKMEA President Mohammad Hatem, in reference to the draft Import Policy Order 2026-2029.

He argues that high-value products, particularly those made from man-made fibres (MMF), would struggle to meet the proposed 30-percent threshold, as raw material costs for such products are significantly higher than those of cotton-based items.Capital market software

"If the government does not revise the provision, it will discourage local industrialisation and efforts to increase domestic value addition in export-oriented apparel production," he predicts.

Hatem also raises concern over a proposed restriction on knit fabrics import in the draft policy. Referring to Commerce Ministry Additional Secretary Abdur Rahim Khan, he says the ministry had indicated that the issue would be addressed in the final version of the policy.

A recent Ministry of Commerce document states that following Bangladesh's graduation from the LDC status, exports to key destinations such as the EU, the United Kingdom, the United States, Japan and other markets will no longer enjoy duty-free access.

To maintain export competitiveness and safeguard market share, the ministry, in collaboration with stakeholders, has already initiated negotiations on free-trade agreements (FTAs), comprehensive economic partnership agreements (CEPAs), bilateral and multilateral trade agreements, and other preferential trade arrangements with major trading partners.

According to the document, maintaining duty-free market access after graduation will require major export-oriented sectors to raise local value addition to above 40-50 per cent. In some cases, compliance with product-specific rules (PSRs), including double-transformation requirements, will be necessary.

The policy on the anvil further notes eligibility for GSP+ preferences may require a minimum value addition of 40 per cent. Exports to countries such as Australia and Canada, which currently enjoy duty-free access, are already required to meet a value-addition threshold of at least 50 per cent.

"In nearly all recent trade negotiations, the requirement for double transformation as a condition for granting duty-free access to Bangladeshi exports has been strongly emphasised," the document reads.Economic trend data

It also highlights that Bangladesh has offered commitments in ongoing negotiations under which garments produced using yarn and fabrics originating from importing countries would be eligible for preferential tariff treatment in proportion to the share of such inputs used in production.

"Accordingly, if Bangladesh's garment industry, particularly knitwear manufacturers, becomes increasingly dependent on imported yarn, securing duty-free market access in the future may become significantly more challenging," the document forewarns.

Seeking anonymity, an apparel-sector leader says the government may consider cash support only for new product categories with 20-percent value addition, which could help diversify export offerings.

"The new items could include sportswear, wedding wear and tech wear, which may require imported fabrics and accessories. Once we start producing such products, the local industry will gradually develop around them," the exporter says.

BKMEA Executive President Fazlee Shamim Ehsan mentions that a recent US court decision put the implementation of the reciprocal-tariff policy on hold, meaning it is currently not applicable to Bangladesh or other countries.Local trade insights

According to the draft Import Policy Order, RMG exporters will be required to maintain a 30-percent value-addition threshold for children's garments, up from the current 15 per cent.

Knitwear and woven garment exports will also be required to attain 30-percent value addition, compared to the existing requirement of 20 per cent.

Exporters of underwear and other specialised garments made from synthetic fibres may face a minimum 40-percent value-addition requirement. Footwear exports, including both leather and non-leather products, may be subject to 30-percent threshold, while ship exports could face 40 per cent, and wooden furniture exporters 50 per cent.

Under the proposed policy, exporters who fail to meet the prescribed value-addition requirements will not be eligible for cash incentives or duty benefits on imported raw materials.

The Ministry of Commerce held a stakeholder consultation on the draft policy on May 22, bringing together industry representatives ahead of its finalisation.

An incremental assistance package announced by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) would fetch Bangladesh US$5.0 billion over next five years and increase the subsequent annual aid by 20 per cent.

The announcement came Monday when ADB President Masato Kanda met Prime Minister Tarique Rahman in Dhaka discussing Bangladesh's development priorities.

Such a bounteous financing commitment comes while the release of remaining sums from an as-much IMF lending package for the country stalls under conditions the new government feels unpalatable in the current context. City & Local Guides

The Integrated Growth Network Development Initiative presented by Mr. Kanda during his visit is designed to expand investment, create jobs, improve connectivity, and promote more balanced regional growth.

"The five-year package is expected to amount to about $1.0 billion a year and will be strategically integrated into ADB's enhanced annual sovereign commitment envelope for Bangladesh," the ADB Dhaka office says in a statement.

And the Manila-based development financier plans to increase its annual sovereign commitments for Bangladesh by 20 per cent from about $2.0 billion to about $2.4 billion annually over the medium term.

The higher annual envelope is hoped to support Bangladesh's development priorities, including investment-led growth, job creation, economic diversification, stronger governance, and a smooth transition from least-developed country (LDC) status.

The ADB president says: "Bangladesh is entering a critical new phase. ADB will help the country protect hard-won stability, unlock new sources of growth, and build a more diversified and resilient economy that delivers better jobs and wider opportunity."Wealth management advice

Marking Masato Kanda's visit, the ADB signed about $1.4 billion in loans as part of the 2026 annual-commitment programme.

The Asian Bank support is scaled up by $250 million to help in financing gaps linked to the economic impact of the Middle East conflict, which is adding pressure to Bangladesh's economy by way of driving up the cost of fuels, liquefied natural gas, fertilisers, and shipping.

These strains come as inflation remains high and the banking sector remains under stress.

The ADB will work with the government and development partners to track the situation and bring in additional financing and private investment, and help Bangladesh build a more resilient economy through more diverse energy sources and exports, and stronger institutions.

Also will it provide $2.0 million in technical assistance to support the preparation and implementation of Bangladesh's medium-term development framework and align ADB's forthcoming country-partnership strategy with government priorities.

Mr. Kanda also met Finance and Planning Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury, with discussions focused on Bangladesh's reform agenda, macroeconomic pressures, external- financing needs, and ADB's support for government's growth and resilience priorities.Local trade insights

The ADB chief met with key private-sector leaders discussing the opportunities and constraints shaping investment.

Also, the Bank is working with the government to mobilise additional private capital by deepening capital markets, preparing bankable projects, and attracting cofinancing and private investment.

The ADB is a leading multilateral development bank supporting sustainable, inclusive, and resilient growth across Asia and the Pacific.

Working with its members and partners to solve complex challenges together, the Asian Bank harnesses innovative financial tools and strategic partnerships to transform lives, build quality infrastructure, and safeguard the planet.

India has scrapped customs duties on cotton imports for five months, the government said on Saturday, as it seeks to boost supplies of contamination-free natural fibre for textile exporters amid strong overseas demand for yarn.

The easing of import restrictions by the world’s second-largest cotton producer is likely to lend support to global prices but is unlikely to trigger a surge in purchases as the rupee’s depreciation has made imported cotton slightly more expensive than domestic supplies.The current 11 percent import duty will be suspended until October 30, the government said in a statement.

India’s textile sector, like others, is under pressure from rising input costs as supply chains are disrupted by the Iran war.The measure is expected to support domestic producers, particularly small and medium-sized firms, by improving cotton availability, the government said.

However, industry officials said Indian cotton is currently the cheapest in the world and that ample supplies from this year’s crop are available domestically, which is likely to limit imports.

“At current price levels, imports are not economically attractive,” Vinay Kotak, president of the Cotton Association of India, told Reuters.“Export-oriented mills need contamination-free cotton and, to meet that requirement, around 600,000 bales could be imported during the duty-free import window.”

The cotton is likely to be sourced from Australia, Brazil, the United States and Africa, which have surpluses, industry officials said.India last year allowed duty-free cotton imports from mid-August through the end of December, helping drive imports to a record 4.7 million bales in the current marketing year, which began last October 1.Cotton is largely grown in rain-fed areas in India, and any disruption to monsoon rains from an El Nino weather pattern could reduce output from the new crop being planted from June and boost import demand, said a New-Delhi-based dealer with a global trade house. “In that scenario, the government could extend the duty-free import window beyond October, as it did last year,” he said.

Canada’s economy posted a surprise contraction in the first quarter versus the year before, making it two straight ‌quarters of annualised decline - which some economists call a technical recession - as the country struggles with US tariff uncertainty.

Gross domestic product declined at an annualised rate of 0.1 percent in the first quarter, Statistics Canada said on Friday, compared with a downwardly revised contraction of 1 percent in the fourth quarter of last year.

Analysts ​polled by Reuters and the Bank of Canada had predicted first-quarter growth of a robust 1.5 percent. On a quarterly basis, ​first-quarter GDP was unchanged against a decline in the fourth quarter of last year.

Canada’s economy has largely withstood trade uncertainty and tariff impacts for more than a year, but the knock-on effects of tariffs have sapped investments, hiring and ​expenditure, and driven up prices.

The upcoming review of the North American free trade deal and the crude price ​shock due to the Middle East war have added more layers of uncertainty.

The last two times Canada was in a technical recession were during the start of the pandemic in 2020 and during the oil shock in the beginning of 2015.

At that time there were two consecutive quarters of decline, both on ​an annualized basis and quarterly basis, StatsCan said. Economists were divided on whether Canada is in a recession or not.

“The trade-induced contraction in ​GDP last quarter meant the economy tipped into a technical recession at the start of the year,” said a note from Capital Economics, though rising ‌oil and gas activity mean the economy likely rebounded in April.

Randall Bartlett, deputy chief economist with Desjardins Group, said the group is not prepared to call the data a recession as the weakness in the Canadian economy was not widespread.

BANK OF CANADA SEES GROWTH OF 1.2% THIS YEAR

The BoC has said growth this year is likely to be at 1.2 percent, down from 1.7 percent last year. It will update its projections in ​July.

The first-quarter GDP was negatively ​impacted by a high level ⁠of imports into the country, but that was largely offset by a high accumulation of inventories, the statistics agency said.

Household spending grew, especially in financial services and food, but this was again mostly canceled ​out by a decline in business and government investments.

Business capital investment fell 0.7 percent, its fifth consecutive ​quarterly decline, StatsCan said.

On ⁠a monthly basis, GDP in March declined by 0.1 percent, against an estimate of flat growth.

An advance estimate from StatsCan showed that growth in April was likely to be 0.4 percent, highlighting a strong start to the second quarter.

Money markets are pricing in a rate hike of 25 basis ⁠points in ​December, even as most economists have called for no change in interest rates all ​through the year.

The Canadian dollar weakened after the GDP data and was trading down 0.28 percent to C$1.3819 to the US dollar, or 72.36 US cents. Yields on the ​two-year government bonds slipped further and were down 7.7 basis points at 2.430 percent.