Gold prices slipped on Wednesday, as renewed hostilities ‌in the Middle East pushed crude higher and stalled US-Iran talks, while investors awaited upcoming US economic data.

Spot gold fell 0.5 percent to $4,460.36 per ounce by 0702 GMT, after rising ​more than 1 percent in the previous session. US gold futures for August ​delivery slipped 0.7 percent to $4,488.90.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Tuesday that President ​Donald Trump’s negotiating team has not offered Iran sanctions relief in exchange for reopening the Strait of Hormuz and insisted that any sanctions relief was tied to Tehran giving up its ​nuclear programme.

“The market is now looking at the possibility that this ceasefire with ​Iran may not hold even though Trump is going to push for a peace deal ‌resolution,” said Kelvin Wong, a senior market analyst at OANDA.

“If we start to see further escalation, that could also dampen whatever recovery that gold might have had.”

Oil prices rose more than 1 percent, deepening concerns over inflation and interest rate hikes.

Cleveland ​Federal Reserve President Beth ​Hammack said on Tuesday the US central bank may need to raise interest rates soon should already-high inflation pressures continue to mount.

Investors are ​now awaiting the US nonfarm payroll data, due later in ​the day, and employment report due on Friday to gauge the Fed’s monetary policy path.

Although gold is typically viewed as a hedge against inflation, it tends to lose its appeal ​as a non-yielding asset in a high interest-rate ​environment.

A growing number of Bangladeshi freelancers, students and small businesses are turning to informal reseller networks to gain access to premium artificial intelligence and software tools as high subscription costs and limited access to international payment methods make official services difficult to afford.

The expanding market reflects the growing dependence on digital tools across the economy, while also exposing users to cybersecurity risks and operating within a largely unregulated environment.

Official subscriptions to global digital platforms typically require payment in US dollars through international credit cards, which remain inaccessible or inconvenient for many Bangladeshis. Local resellers have stepped in to bridge the gap by purchasing subscriptions in bulk, using family or team plans, or sourcing packages from lower-priced regions before reselling access in local currency through mobile financial services like bKash and Nagad.

The price differences are substantial. ChatGPT Plus, which officially costs around Tk2,400 to Tk2,500 per month, is commonly sold by local resellers for about Tk400. Canva Pro and VPN services, which officially cost between Tk1,500 and Tk1,800 per month, are available through resellers for Tk150 to Tk350.

Similarly, YouTube Premium, priced at Tk239 per month for individual users, is offered through shared arrangements for Tk100 to Tk150. Netflix's Premium 4K plan, which costs around Tk1,200 to Tk1,250 per month, is frequently resold through shared profiles for approximately Tk450.

According to the ICT Division, Bangladesh has around 6,50,000 freelancers working in a sector valued at nearly $1 billion annually, making the country one of the world's largest freelance labour markets. A 2025 study published by the International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science found that many freelancers earn less than $209 per month, making multiple full-price software subscriptions financially out of reach.

"For most freelancers, paying full international prices for several tools together becomes almost impossible," freelancer Sourav Biswas told TBS.

Digital tools becoming essential

As AI and digital productivity platforms become increasingly integrated into everyday work, many users now regard premium subscriptions as essential rather than optional.

Digital marketing agencies rely on design and content creation tools, while freelancers use AI and writing assistance platforms to serve international clients. Students increasingly depend on such tools for assignments, presentations and research.

Tanvir Hassan, executive director of Ekush Communication, said premium software has become indispensable for agency operations.

"Content teams use them for design, copywriting, presentations, client communication and productivity. AI tools especially have significantly reduced turnaround time in many creative tasks," he said.

For smaller agencies with multiple employees, he added, maintaining official subscriptions across all required platforms can create a significant monthly financial burden.

University student Aniruddha Biswas said many students could not afford official subscriptions individually.

"Usually, a group of students purchases subscriptions together through local sellers to reduce costs," he said.

Several freelancers and students said access to such tools directly affects their competitiveness in global digital marketplaces.

Digital inequality driving demand

Md Neamul Hasan Mimu, chairman of reseller business Bongo Digital, said demand for subscriptions to ChatGPT Plus, Canva Pro, Adobe products, Spotify and Grammarly had increased rapidly in recent years.

His company currently serves between 30 and 50 customers daily.

"A large number of users in Bangladesh still do not have access to international payment cards, and the high exchange rate makes official subscriptions relatively expensive," he said.

Neamul called on global technology companies to introduce local currency billing and integrate domestic payment platforms.

BM Mainul Hossain, director at the Institute of Information Technology of the University of Dhaka, said the growth of the reseller market highlighted broader digital inequality.

"Global pricing is often too high for a country like Bangladesh. If regional pricing or localised access models are not introduced, many users simply cannot afford these services," he said.

According to Mainul, unofficial parallel markets tend to emerge naturally when digital services remain financially inaccessible to large segments of the population.

Security and privacy concerns

Despite their lower prices, reseller services carry significant cybersecurity and privacy risks, according to experts.

Mainul warned that shared accounts may expose users' browsing histories, prompts and personal information to others. He also noted that some unofficial login methods could facilitate the spread of malware.

Cybersecurity expert Arif Mainuddin said many consumers prioritise affordability over account security.

According to him, some resellers request customers' email credentials, passwords or even remote access to their devices, creating risks of identity theft, unauthorised account access and credential misuse.

The Business Standard also observed that some group-buy services rely on browser extensions to provide access. Experts caution that such extensions may gain access to browsing sessions, cookies and account activity.

"While unofficial subscription markets may appear economically attractive, users must understand that lower costs often come with hidden cybersecurity and privacy trade-offs," Mainuddin said.

The Business Standard contacted Group Buy Services, one of the larger operators in the market, for comment, but the company declined to respond.

Regulatory uncertainty

The market currently operates in a legal grey area. No publicly known licensing framework exists under the Bangladesh Telecommunication Regulatory Commission specifically for the resale of shared software-as-a-service subscriptions.

Despite repeated attempts, TBS could not obtain comments from commission officials.

Although subscription reselling itself may not be illegal, practices involving unauthorised credential sharing, cracked software or stolen payment methods could potentially violate platform policies, copyright protections or cybercrime laws.

After a brief recovery in April, exports returned to a year-on-year decline last month, according to official data, as weak demand for apparel in key markets and lower order volumes from Western buyers weighed on earnings.

With merchandise exports dropping in May, overall shipments in the first 11 months of the current fiscal year also fell compared with the same period a year earlier.

Amid mounting external pressures largely caused by the war in the Gulf, exporters say a prolonged slowdown could put pressure on the country’s foreign exchange inflows and overall economic growth.

Meanwhile, with only one month remaining in the fiscal year, economists are questioning whether exports will end FY2025-26 in negative territory, reversing the recovery recorded in FY2024-25 after two consecutive years of decline.

In May, the country’s merchandise exports fell 7 percent year-on-year to $4.40 billion. As a result, exports in the July-May period of FY2025-26 declined 2.60 percent year-on-year to $43.80 billion, according to data released by the Export Promotion Bureau (EPB) yesterday.

The figure was down 2.6 percent from $44.95 billion in the corresponding period of the previous fiscal year, EPB data showed.

“Negative growth in May was expected,” said Mohammed Hatem, president of the Bangladesh Knitwear Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BKMEA).

The readymade garment sector generates more than 80 percent of Bangladesh’s export earnings.

During the first 11 months of FY26, garment exports fell 3.4 percent year-on-year to $35.31 billion. Knitwear exports dropped 4.3 percent to $18.78 billion, while woven garment shipments declined 2.4 percent to $16.53 billion.

The BKMEA president said export orders have remained sluggish for much of FY26 as buyers in major markets continue to place orders cautiously amid global economic uncertainty.

“The global market is still weak, and export orders are lower than expected. That is why the sector is posting negative growth,” Hatem told The Daily Star.

He also pointed to the Eid-ul-Azha holidays, which began in late May and reduced factory working days, affecting production and shipments during the month.

According to Hatem, the strong growth recorded in April was partly due to a favourable comparison with the same month a year earlier, when overall production hours were reduced by Eid holidays.

“This year’s April had more working days, so some growth was natural. But the market situation has not improved significantly,” he said.

Hatem said the apparel sector has been under pressure throughout the fiscal year and there are few signs of a sharp recovery in the coming months. “We do not see any strong indication that orders will rebound significantly in the near future.”

He added that a prolonged weakness in exports could put pressure on the country’s foreign exchange inflows and overall economic growth.

In the first 11 months of the current fiscal year, Bangladesh’s terry towel and linen exports fell 14 percent as manufacturers grappled with weak global demand and rising business costs.

M Shahadat Hossain Sohel, president of Bangladesh Terry Towel and Linen Manufacturers and Exporters Association, said the sector was being squeezed by multiple crises, including the lingering impact of the Russia-Ukraine war, conflicts across the Middle East and an inflation-driven slowdown in demand in key markets such as Europe and the United States.

He said many small and medium-sized factories had shut down since the pandemic, while larger firms were surviving largely on bank financing rather than profits.

Sohel also blamed soaring production costs, unreliable gas and power supplies, and a difficult business environment for eroding competitiveness.

According to him, without stronger policy support, similar to incentives offered by India to its textile sector, Bangladesh could lose further ground in global markets.

Abdur Razzaque, chairman of Research and Policy Integration for Development (RAPID), said it was still too early to conclude whether Bangladesh’s exports would end the fiscal year in negative territory, as one month remained.

“However, export growth is unlikely to improve significantly,” he said.

Razzaque said the prolonged weakness in exports was already affecting investment and the labour market. If exports fail to recover quickly, the adverse effects could persist for a longer period.

Citing data from the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), he said the country had been facing labour market challenges for the past two years, making a near-term recovery unlikely.

As Bangladesh’s exports are heavily concentrated in the readymade garment sector, any slowdown in apparel shipments has ripple effects across the broader economy, including backward linkage industries, said the economist.

For more than a decade, the unveiling of the national budget has triggered a familiar chorus of reactions. Headlines routinely describe it as a “big budget”, a “massive budget” or a “debt-driven budget”, as if its size alone determines its significance.

Politicians, business leaders and ordinary citizens have all weighed in with sharp quips. Some dismiss it as nothing more than a “numbers game”. Others argue that the headline figure looks “impressive” but says “little” about the government’s actual spending capacity.

Yet a comparison with neighbouring countries tells a different story.

In terms of government expenditure as a share of gross domestic product (GDP), which is the value of all goods and services the country produces in a year, Bangladesh has one of the lowest ratios in South Asia and among countries scheduled to graduate from the least developed country club.

In simple terms, Bangladesh’s budget is like a small water tank serving a rapidly growing city.

The culprit? Mainly weak revenue collection. Relative to the size of its economy, Bangladesh’s tax take is among the lowest in the world.

But why does budget size matter in the first place?

Basically, government expenditure finances essential public services such as healthcare, education, law enforcement and public administration. Higher spending on healthcare and education generally benefits ordinary and marginalised people the most.

In 2024, Bangladesh’s government expenditure stood at just 12.03 percent of GDP, according to International Monetary Fund (IMF) data.

In the same year, government expenditure accounted for 28.38 percent of GDP in India, 19.47 percent in Pakistan and 19.32 percent in Sri Lanka. The ratio was 27.13 percent in Bhutan, 17.26 percent in Cambodia, 23 percent in Hong Kong and 16.84 percent in Indonesia.

In neighbouring Myanmar, government expenditure in 2024 amounted to 23.4 percent of GDP. Among countries graduating from the LDC category, the ratio in that year stood at 33.55 percent in Senegal and 35.81 percent in the Solomon Islands.

Globally, only a small number of fragile economies, including Ethiopia, Haiti, Sudan and Yemen, recorded lower government expenditure-to-GDP ratios than Bangladesh.

According to Fahmida Khatun, executive director of local think tank Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), the country’s limited public spending reflects weak revenue mobilisation rather than fiscal restraint. It is also linked to longstanding weaknesses in project implementation.

“But the main reason behind low government expenditure is low revenue collection,” she said.

The National Board of Revenue (NBR) collected Tk 370,874 crore in fiscal year 2024-25, falling Tk 92,626 crore short of its revised target. The original target had been Tk 480,000 crore before being reduced by Tk 18,500 crore.

As a result, the tax-to-GDP ratio dropped to just 6.8 percent, one of the lowest among countries at a similar stage of development.

Fahmida attributed the poor revenue performance to institutional weaknesses, limited administrative capacity within the revenue board and governance shortcomings.

She also pointed out that even the resources collected are not always used efficiently. Delays, cost overruns and implementation bottlenecks often prevent public spending from delivering the expected economic benefits.

The problem extends to foreign financing as well. Bangladesh has access to substantial external funding. But many foreign-assisted projects suffer from implementation delays, reducing the country’s ability to utilise those foreign resources.

The consequences are far-reaching.

Government spending supports essential services, builds infrastructure and strengthens social protection programmes. These investments improve living standards, reduce inequality and create conditions for stronger economic growth.

Infrastructure spending is particularly important because it encourages private investment and job creation.

“If physical infrastructure does not improve, private-sector investment will not be encouraged, and economic growth may fall short of its potential,” said Fahmida.

She said higher and more efficient public spending could therefore make a substantial contribution to both economic development and social welfare.

However, increasing expenditure alone is not enough. The quality and timeliness of spending matter just as much, added the economist.

The country’s development spending has long been hampered by implementation weaknesses.

According to the Implementation Monitoring and Evaluation Division (IMED), only 41.41 percent of the revised Annual Development Programme (ADP) allocation was utilised during the first 10 months of fiscal year 2025-26.

That means the challenge is not simply the size of the budget. It is also the state’s ability to execute projects efficiently.

The United States has proposed additional tariffs on imports from 60 countries, including Bangladesh, after concluding that their efforts to curb trade in goods produced with forced labour are inadequate and restrict US commerce.

The proposal was announced on Tuesday by the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) following Section 301 investigations launched earlier this year into forced labour enforcement among major US trading partners.

US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said the failure of trading partners to address imports linked to forced labour creates an uneven playing field for American workers.“The failure of our most important trading partners to address the importation of goods made with forced labor is unacceptable,” Greer said, adding that governments must do more to prevent global trade from encouraging forced labour practices.

The USTR identified 54 economies, including Bangladesh, India, China, Japan, the United Kingdom, Vietnam and Thailand, as failing to impose and effectively enforce bans on the importation of goods produced with forced labour. Another six economies, including Canada, Mexico and Pakistan, were cited for failing to effectively enforce existing prohibitions.Under the proposed framework, countries with partial forced labour import bans or reciprocal trade arrangements with the US would face an additional 10 percent tariff. Countries without such arrangements could face a higher 12.5 percent duty on exports to the United States, according to the proposal.The levies won’t go into effect immediately and are subject to a public comment and review period before implementation, which could result in changes before any duties are codified. Written comments are due to be submitted by July 6, and a Section 301 panel is expected to convene public hearings beginning on July 7, according to the notice.

The action forms part of a broader Section 301 trade strategy that could lead to country-specific tariffs replacing temporary measures due to expire later this year.The USTR also proposed a separate textile mechanism that would allow a specified volume of apparel and textile imports from certain economies to enter the US at reduced Section 301 tariff rates. Details of eligibility and quota levels have not yet been finalised.

The United Nations Committee for Development Policy (UN CDP) has recommended that Bangladesh’s Least Developed Country (LDC) graduation be postponed until November 24, 2029, putting the country in good standing to receive preferential trade benefits for three more years.

“The extension of the preparatory period should not be viewed as an opportunity to delay reforms -- rather, it should serve as a catalyst for accelerating them,” the CDP said in its critical assessment report.

Bangladesh has exceeded the graduation thresholds by a significant margin under all three LDC graduation criteria and faces a very low risk of falling below these thresholds in the near to medium term.

But the recent crisis in the Middle East, uncertainties in global energy and supply chains, changes in the international trading environment, and global challenges could affect the country’s graduation preparedness and transition process, the CDP said.

An extension of the preparatory period would provide Bangladesh with more time to better assess the implications of the current global situation, identify priority actions and prepare adequately for the post-graduation landscape, including the loss of certain market preferences and international support measures.

Bangladesh formally requested the CDP to extend the preparatory period on February 18, with Prime Minister Tarique Rahman writing to the UN Secretary-General seeking his personal support on the matter.

The extension could be approved at the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) in September.

The UN CDP’s positive note on the extension of the graduation of Bangladesh will be sent to the UNGA through the United Nations Economic and Social Council (UN ECOSOC) for its final approval by the member countries.

The UN CDP’s positive recommendations made Bangladesh’s plea of extension morally strong in the pathway for the UNGA’s final approval, said Mohammad Abdur Razzaque, chairman of the Research and Policy Integration for Development (RAPID).

Now, Bangladesh will have to maintain better engagement with the major trading partners such as India, China and the EU so that the extension is approved by the member countries in the upcoming UNGA.

The reason being Bangladesh is the highest user of the LDC benefits given by the developed and developing nations.

Bangladesh alone utilises 67 percent of the benefits given to all 44 LDCs by the other countries and 73 percent of its exports export is LDC induced, he said.

Different studies suggest that Bangladesh may lose $17.5 billion in export earnings in a year because of LDC graduation.

If Bangladesh gets the final approval at the UNGA, the country will enjoy the preferential trade benefits for three more years.

The CDP’s recommendation is a positive sign for Bangladesh, said Mostafa Abid Khan, a former member of the Bangladesh Trade and Tariff Commission.

However, CDP Chair José Antonio Ocampo emphasised that Bangladesh would need to make significant progress in implementing key domestic reforms to address its existing structural vulnerabilities during this extended period.

In its report, the CDP underscored the importance of continued support from the international community for Bangladesh during both the preparatory period and the post-graduation phase.

Such support includes concessional financing, appropriate extension of LDC-specific International Support Measures, technical assistance and enhanced capacity for trade negotiations.

The report highlighted the importance of domestic reforms, particularly in ensuring financial sector stability, increasing tax revenue, strengthening domestic resource mobilisation, enhancing productive capacities, promoting economic diversification and preparing the private sector for graduation.

The government firmly believes that, with the support of the international community and the successful implementation of ongoing reforms, Bangladesh will be able to achieve a smooth, sustainable and successful graduation from the LDC category, said a statement from the Economic Relations Division.

The Trump administration has proposed a new ​punitive tariff of 25% on many imports from Brazil, after deciding its practices were unfair on a range of issues from digital trade to ‌illegal deforestation, top trade official Jamieson Greer said late on Monday.

The measures, under the Section 301 trade statute, cover areas such as electronic payment services, preferential tariffs, intellectual property protection and ethanol market access as well, the Office of the United States Trade Representative said.

The proposed new tariff, subject to public consultation ahead of a July 15 deadline, would exclude some items, such as beef, coffee, rare earths, other metals, energy ​and aircraft parts.

The USTR said its unfair trade practices investigation into Brazil, started last year under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, had found practices ​that "are unreasonable and burden or restrict US commerce," opening the door for a punitive tariff.

Greer, speaking on CNBC, called the Brazil action "quite ⁠nuanced" because of the broad exemptions. He said that the trade agency will release the findings of several more Section 301 unfair trade practices investigations in coming weeks, adding ​that substantial tariffs were needed to correct a "giant" US trade deficit.

Brazil's Foreign Ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Two Brazilian officials familiar with the matter said the ​justifications for a new US tariff ignored many of the arguments presented by Brasilia in recent months, suggesting the motives were political rather than technical.

Despite a White House visit last month by President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, bilateral relations have turned chilly.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio designated Brazil's two biggest criminal gangs as terrorist organizations over objections from Brasilia, opening the door for more aggressive interventions in the ​country.

Days earlier, Lula's main rival in the October election, Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, had argued in favor of the terrorist label during a tour of Washington that included meetings with Rubio, ​Vice President JD Vance and President Donald Trump.

"I expressly asked President Trump not to tariff our companies," Bolsonaro wrote on X on Tuesday. "Tariffs are not the solution."

Tariff replacements

The USTR's proposed new tariff would ‌partially replace ⁠a tariff of 50% on many Brazilian goods imposed last year by Trump, with 40% as a punishment for Brazil's prosecution of the Brazilian senator's father, former President Jair Bolsonaro.

The US Supreme Court struck down those duties in February.

In a statement, Greer said he launched the Section 301 investigation to tackle "longstanding and pervasive US concerns with certain of Brazil's trade policies and practices."

Despite recent engagement with Brazilian President Inacio Lula da Silva and his cabinet, Greer said the United States and Brazil "continue to have substantial differences in resolving issues identified in ​this investigation."

6 July public hearing

The trade agency ​invited comment on the proposed tariffs through 1 July, with a public hearing set for 6 July. It faces a 15 July deadline for taking "responsive action" in the Section 301 investigation.

Trump used the same statute to impose sweeping tariffs on Chinese goods during his first term.

The USTR has several other open ​Section 301 investigations that are expected to lead to new duties.

Among these are one covering excess industrial capacity in China and 15 ​other trading partners, as ⁠well as one into enforcement of forced labor bans in 60 countries.

The agency opened a new investigation on Friday into Vietnam's intellectual property practices.

Regarding its Brazil findings, the USTR said the proposed new 25% tariff would not apply to Brazilian imports subject to national security-related tariffs under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962.

These include 50% duties on steel, aluminum and copper ⁠and 25% ​duties on finished products made from those metals, as well as a 25% duty on motor vehicles and ​auto parts.

The USTR said products exempted from the proposed 25% tariffs included many fruits and nuts, crude oil and petroleum products, pharmaceutical compounds, organic chemicals and fertilizers.

These are in addition to beef, coffee, rare earths, certain other ​metals and ores and Brazilian aircraft and aircraft parts.

In the first days of March, Petrobangla went looking for an emergency cargo of liquefied natural gas (LNG), and no seller would bid. A second tender drew nothing either. Only by negotiating one-to-one did it secure two cargoes, one at $28.28 per million British thermal units against $9.99 in December. The war that closed the Strait of Hormuz exposed something harder to fix than price: the way Bangladesh buys gas.

The budget the finance minister presents on June 11 will answer that with money. He has told parliament the war will require roughly Tk 36,000 crore in extra power, energy and LNG subsidies between March and June. The LNG share alone could reach $1.07 billion in a single quarter, against the Tk 9,000 crore set aside for the whole year. The cheque pays the bill. It does not change why the bill keeps coming.

Bangladesh believed it had two kinds of protection: long-term contracts for steady supply and the spot market as a backup. The war showed they were the same protection in two guises. Its contracted gas comes from QatarEnergy, Oman’s OQ Trading and the American firm Excelerate, and its spot cargoes come from the same region through the same strait. When Qatar declared force majeure in early March, the other suppliers followed because their gas originated in the same place. Qatar alone was due to ship about 40 of this year’s 115 cargoes and Oman another 16, so two safety nets turned out to be a single bet.

The Excelerate arrangement makes the point. While it appears to diversify supply, the gas still originates in Qatar and passes through the same route. When Qatar stopped, the apparent diversification disappeared.

Look at this the way a fund manager would. Bangladesh has concentrated almost everything in one price formula, one route and one chokepoint. No one would run an investment portfolio that way. The country does not mainly have a price problem to subsidise; it has a portfolio nobody designed.

India shows the alternative. Its Qatari cargoes were affected too, but over years it spread purchases across different price formulas and sea routes. Some gas is priced off the American benchmark Henry Hub, near $3, while Asian spot prices surged past $20, and it travels across the Atlantic, far from Hormuz.

Fahmida Khatun has rightly argued for a portfolio approach with caps on any single source. The next step is recognising that buying from more countries is not the same as buying on more price formulas or routes. It is the latter that matters when a key shipping lane closes.

The deeper fixes are real, and the budget should fund them: more domestic gas, more solar and less waste. But none of that changes the cargoes the country must buy next month. The tool is already in hand. In May, the World Bank doubled its energy facility for Bangladesh to $700 million, allowing Petrobangla to finance LNG purchases through letters of credit and short-term credit lines. Right now, it is being used only to pay this year’s premium.

Used by the finance ministry and Petrobangla to anchor a standing framework, it could support three rules: buy a set share of gas on price formulas other than oil so one spike cannot move the whole bill; buy a set share through routes that avoid Hormuz so one closed strait cannot halt supply; and maintain a cleared list of sellers, with the exit clauses this crisis showed were missing, before the next shock.

A budget that only raises the subsidy treats the symptom, not the cause. Bangladesh has been buying gas like a price-taker. It can start buying like an investor who spreads risk, so no single shock can corner the country.

India and Oman today (1 June) enforced a bilateral free trade accord which offers zero-duty access for 99.38% of India's exports to the Persian Gulf country, the Indian commerce ministry said.

All zero-duty concessions under the bilateral Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) come into effect immediately, providing certainty and competitiveness to Indian exporters, the ministry said in a statement.

Earlier, under the Most Favoured Nation regime, only 15.33% of India's exports entered Oman duty-free. With CEPA, Indian exporters gain substantial price competitiveness in Oman's nearly $28 billion import market.

Speaking on the occasion, Indian Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal said that with 99.38% of India's exports receiving duty-free access, the CEPA, signed in December last year, unlocks new opportunities for Indian exporters and professionals.

India, in turn, has offered tariff liberalisation on 77.79% of tariff lines covering 94.81% of imports from Oman by value, while maintaining strong safeguards for sensitive sectors.

Products including dairy products, cereals, fruits, vegetables, edible oils, oilseeds, rubber, leather, spices and key agricultural products have been kept out of CEPA in order to protect India's domestic industries, said the statement.

India is only the second country, after the United States, to secure a comprehensive bilateral trade pact with Oman.

The CEPA will strengthen India's dominance in fisheries, meat, eggs, marine products, and processed foods with duty elimination.

Oman offers a gateway to the Gulf Cooperation Council countries and East Africa and Oman's logistics hubs at Sohar, Duqm, and Salalah are expected to amplify India's regional trade connectivity.

To mark the entry into force, the first consignments availing preferential tariff benefits under the agreement, including agriculture and gems and jewellery exports from Mumbai, Kolkata, and Chennai, were flagged off.

Oman is India's second-largest trading partner in the Gulf region and serves as a strategic gateway to the wider GCC market through its advanced port infrastructure.

Bilateral trade between India and Oman reached $11.18 billion in FY2025-26, up from $10.61 billion in FY2024-25.

All marine products, including shrimp, fish, and cuttlefish, will get immediate duty-free access, replacing earlier import duties of up to 5%.

Oman's marine imports stood at $35.3 million in 2025, while India's exports accounted for only $10 million, indicating substantial untapped potential.

Import duties of up to 5% on gems and jewellery have been eliminated from day one.

Indian exporters gain a structural price advantage over competitors from Italy, Turkey, Thailand, and China.

Oman's total gems and jewellery import market is $1.07 billion annually. India's exports to Oman in this sector stood at $25.78 million in 2025, comprising $18.48 million in polished natural diamonds and $6.67 million in gold jewellery.

It is projected that exports could increase sixfold to $150 million within three years.

Clusters in Surat (diamonds), Jaipur (gemstones), Mumbai, Kolkata, and Chennai are positioned to capture this growth.

India is Oman's second-largest agricultural supplier with a 17.8% share in Omani imports. Duty elimination strengthens India's competitiveness in products such as honey, condiments, cashews, basmati rice, butter and sweet biscuits.

India currently accounts for over 94% of Oman's bovine meat imports and over 98% of fresh egg imports, making Oman one of India's most important agricultural export destinations in the Gulf region.

India and the United States are “about 99 percent” done with the first tranche of a trade deal, the commerce minister said, as a US delegation began talks in New Delhi on Tuesday.

The delegation, led by Assistant US Trade Representative for South and Central Asia Brendan Lynch, is holding three days of talks with Indian trade officials, as the two sides seek to close negotiations.

“About 99 percent of the issues have been settled,” Indian commerce minister Piyush Goyal told reporters in Delhi late Monday.

The two countries reached an initial understanding for the trade deal in February, but negotiations slowed after President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff measures were struck down by the US Supreme Court.

After the court order, the Trump administration launched investigations into unfair trade practices against several countries, including India, while imposing a blanket 10 percent tariff.

Goyal said negotiators were examining how recent legal changes in the United States should be reflected in the final text of the agreement.

“I am fully confident that we will conclude and sign the first tranche of the bilateral trade agreement with the United States,” Goyal said, adding that discussions would then continue on a broader and more comprehensive pact.

“Discussions are continuing on minor details, essentially the commas and full stops.”

Last week, US ambassador Sergio Gor said he expected the interim trade deal to be signed “in the next few weeks”.

Washington and New Delhi have set a target of boosting bilateral trade to $500 billion by 2030, holding multiple rounds of negotiations since March to resolve market access and tariff disputes.

India says the deal protects its sensitive dairy and agricultural products while opening a $30 trillion market for exporters.

The factory has remained closed for 24 years since 2002, while losses have continued to mount year after year. There is also no publicly disclosed information indicating that production will resume anytime soon.

Despite the company's deteriorating financial condition, Meghna PET Industries' recent share price tells a completely different story.

Over the past three months, the company's stock has surged by nearly 245%, raising the eyebrows of market insiders.

Meghna PET owns and operates an industrial plant for processing of integral mineral water, PET bottle manufacturing and filling of edible oil and selling of mineral water and edible oil.

In the fiscal 2024-25, it incurred a loss of Tk4.40 crore with a per-share loss of Tk2.75, and did not recommend any dividends for its shareholders.

According to data of the Dhaka Stock Exchange, in March, its share price was Tk24 apiece, which gradually rose to Tk82.9 yesterday.

Trading in the stock remained halted for the past two consecutive sessions. Although there were buyers at the maximum daily price limit, no sellers were available, the data showed.

Despite the sharp surge in the share price of the closed company, the lack of action from regulatory authorities such as the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission and the DSE has raised questions among market participants.

A similar scenario is also seen in the case of Meghna Condensed Milk. The company has remained out of production since December 2021.

Its retained loss as of June 2024 stood at Tk145 crore, surpassing its total assets of Tk140 crore.

However, its stock has witnessed sharp price rallies in recent months, raising concerns among market participants over the disconnect between the company's fundamentals and its market performance.

On 18 January, Meghna Condensed Milk's share price stood at Tk12.1, while it closed at Tk46.1 yesterday, marking a 280% increase over the period.

Market insiders said a group of investors had targeted low-paid-up capital companies such as Meghna PET Industries and Meghna Condensed Milk because their relatively small number of outstanding shares makes it easier to drive up prices.

They alleged that some influential investors were spreading rumours about potential ownership changes and fresh investment that could restart operations at full capacity, despite production remaining suspended.

To inform the investors, the DSE published a list of closed firms in January this year.

An official at the DSE, seeking anonymity, told TBS, "We can aware investors only about informing the status of the company. In line with the motto, we have already published a list of non-performing companies. Investors should invest at their own risk."

Al-Amin, a professor in the Department of Accounting at the University of Dhaka, criticised the apparent lack of regulatory action.

"The share price of a company that has been closed for 24 years is increasing in front of everyone's eyes. This clearly indicates that some group in the market is playing a role in driving up the price of this share," he said.

Prof Al-Amin added, "Even though the share price of a non-producing company is increasing, neither the BSEC nor the DSE is taking any initiative. There is negligence on the part of the regulatory bodies in investigating why the price is rising and taking necessary measures."

Questioning the adequacy of the exchange's response, he said it was important to consider whether the responsibility of regulators ended with the publication of a list of closed companies.

"In cases of companies with abnormal price hikes, the stock exchange or the commission can take action in the interest of investors, yet they are doing nothing," he added.

Attempts to obtain comments from BSEC spokesperson Abul Kalam were unsuccessful, as he did not respond to telephone calls.

Oil prices trended lower on Tuesday following the previous session’s sharp gains as ​the market remained cautious about progress in US-Iran peace talks.

US President Donald Trump said on Monday talks with Iran were ‌ongoing, while Tasnim news agency reported earlier that Tehran had suspended indirect negotiations with Washington.

Brent crude futures lost 53 cents, or 0.56 percent, to $94.45 a barrel at 0649 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate fell 56 cents, or 0.61 percent, to $91.60 a barrel.

Both benchmarks rose more than 5 percent in ​the previous session, having posted a monthly loss of more than 16 percent in May on hopes of a ​peace deal.

“While markets had hoped to move past the uncertainty amid prospects of a potential deal, nothing appears to have changed for oil as of this morning,” said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at ​Phillip Nova.

In an interview with CNBC on Monday, Trump said he did not mind if the talks were over. But shortly ​after, he issued a social media post saying talks with Iran were continuing and told ABC News that he expected a deal to extend the ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz “over the next week”.

“The market is currently focused on whether there’s any concrete progress or setbacks ​in US-Iran negotiations, the tone and substance of statements from both sides (particularly Iran’s threats regarding the Strait of Hormuz), ​and actual physical tanker movements through the waterway,” said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade.

The status of the US-Iran negotiations at ‌any given point will ultimately determine whether the current risk premium stays embedded in oil prices or starts to unwind, Waterer added.

Lebanon on Monday announced a partial ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel, in what would amount to a limited de-escalation of a conflict that has inflamed the broader war with Iran.

Iran has effectively halted nearly all non-Iranian shipping into and out of the ​Gulf since the war began, ​choking off about a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas flows and driving prices up by 50 percent or more.

The benchmark index of the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) reclaimed the 5,400-point threshold today (2 June), hitting a three-month high as a sustained seven-day winning streak gathered pace.

Investor sentiment was significantly bolstered by fresh government commitments to restructure the stock market regulator with non-political, skilled professionals.

The rally, which has added 203 points to the broad index over the last seven trading sessions, reflects a growing confidence among market participants regarding the future governance and transparency of the capital market.

The benchmark DSEX index rose by 33 points to settle at 5,406 today, its highest level since early March.

The market's upward trajectory also resulted in a substantial increase in valuation, with the total market capitalisation of the premier bourse jumping by Tk12,700 crore over the last week to reach Tk6.88 lakh crore.

Market participation saw a notable surge as daily turnover increased by 18%, crossing the prestigious thousand-crore mark to settle at Tk1,080 crore.

The primary catalyst for today's surge was a landmark announcement by the Finance and Planning Minister at an event titled "Budget 2026-27: Expectations and Reality," organised by the Economic Reporters Forum.

The minister revealed that the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) will be fully restructured within the next two weeks, adding that a new chairman and four commissioners are being appointed through a strictly professional process, free from political influence or consultation with political parties.

Analysts believe that if the government fulfills its promise of a professionally run BSEC, the market could sustain its current momentum and attract much-needed institutional and foreign investment in the coming months.

The optimism was visible across the trading floor, with the blue-chip DS30 index inching up by 5 points to close at 2,049.

Market breadth remained strongly positive as 230 issues advanced compared to 116 that declined, while 47 remained unchanged.

Sector-wise performance was led by general insurance, which posted a 2.28% return, followed by the tannery, cement, and non-bank financial institution (NBFI) sectors. Conversely, the jute, telecommunication, and travel and leisure sectors faced minor corrections.

In terms of individual stock activity, the banking sector remained the focus of high-volume trading. Jamuna Bank, BRAC Bank, and City Bank emerged as the top traded stocks, alongside RD Food and Agni Systems.

Among the top gainers, Meghna PET and Sonargaon Textile led the chart, both surging by nearly 10%. On the other hand, BIFC and International Leasing were among the top losers as investors shifted capital away from struggling financial entities toward fundamentally stronger scrips.

The bullish sentiment extended to the Chittagong Stock Exchange, where the Selective Categories' Index (CSCX) gained 62 points to finish at 9,277, and the All Share Price Index (CASPI) jumped 110 points to reach 15,080. However, unlike the Dhaka bourse, turnover at the port city exchange saw a 42% decline, standing at Tk27.19 crore.

The government has decided to introduce a 0.25% fee on guarantees issued against loans taken by state-owned, autonomous, and government-controlled entities.

In a circular issued by the Ministry of Finance today (2 June), it stated that the fee will apply to both local and foreign loans backed by state guarantees.

According to the circular, the Finance Division, under the authority of the Public Debt Act 2022 and the State Guarantee or Counter-Guarantee Policy 2014, will impose a one-time guarantee fee on loans taken under sovereign backing. The fee must be deposited into the government treasury through the designated payment system.

A Finance Division official told The Business Standard that the measure applies when state-owned companies, public entities, or joint ventures seek loans from domestic or international sources that require government guarantees. "The move aims to discourage excessive reliance on sovereign guarantees while also increasing revenue collection."

"State-owned and autonomous institutions often rely on borrowing to finance development projects, with lenders frequently requiring government guarantees as a condition. These guarantees are issued by the Finance Division on behalf of the government," the official added.

According to the ministry, by December 2025, the government had provided guarantees worth Tk106,973 crore for various domestic and foreign loans. Of this, Tk58,383 crore was in foreign loans and Tk48,590 crore in domestic loans.

More than half of the guaranteed loans are in the power sector. Guarantees have also been extended to agriculture-related loans and to Biman Bangladesh Airlines.

The government has also guaranteed foreign borrowing by the Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation (BPC) for fuel imports, as well as agricultural loans from Bangladesh Krishi Bank and Rajshahi Krishi Unnayan Bank (Rakub).

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said on Tuesday the company has enough supply to accommodate robust growth in central processing units (CPUs) and graphics processing units (GPUs) as it rides an AI boom.

The company, considered a barometer for the AI market's health as its semiconductors are used in virtually every major data centre in the world, acknowledged, however, that supply constraints remain a concern.

"We've secured supply for very robust growth of all of those systems," Huang said at an Nvidia press conference during the Computex week in Taipei.

"We have supply for very, very robust growth, but we're still supply constrained."

Huang was speaking a day after the $5 trillion chip company unveiled a new chip that brings AI capabilities directly to personal computers.

Nvidia's new chip, which will be launched in the autumn, would pit it against the likes of Advanced Micro Devices, Intel and Apple.

Huang said the RTX Spark PC chip is part of Nvidia's efforts with Microsoft to "reinvent the PC" for the AI era.

Born in Taiwan's southern city of Tainan, the Nvidia chief announced plans last week to invest around $150 billion a year in Taiwan, describing it as the epicentre of the AI revolution.

At the press conference on Tuesday, Huang said Taiwan is a strategic partner for the US because the island is investing in US manufacturing. The company plans to continue to invest in Taiwan and make the supply chain as resilient as possible.

"We are the largest purchaser of any company now for the ecosystem of Taiwan," he said.

Demand for Nvidia AI chips, or GPUs, has generated tens of billions of dollars of revenue and helped make the company the most valuable in the world.

Huang said the company's Vera data centre CPUs would be even more popular than its GPUs because of the CPUs' crucial role in crunching information.

Vera competes with data centre chips made by AMD and Intel.

"This (Vera CPU) is going to be our new major growth driver," Huang said during a presentation on Monday outlining Nvidia's latest AI products.

Bangladesh Bank (BB) has instructed all scheduled banks to give priority to farmers affected by recent heavy rainfall in receiving agricultural credit under its refinancing scheme, aiming to support recovery efforts and protect farm production in vulnerable regions.

The directive was issued today (Tuesday) through a Financial Inclusion Department (FID) circular, BSS reports. Bangladesh Economic Report

According to the circular, banks have been asked to ensure quick and priority-based loan disbursement to farmers in flood-affected haor and other areas where intense rainfall has damaged crops and disrupted agricultural activities.

The central bank said farmers in districts such as Sylhet, Sunamganj, Habiganj, Kishoreganj, Netrokona and Moulvibazar have suffered significant losses due to recent adverse weather conditions, making timely access to credit crucial for restoring agricultural production and livelihoods.

To facilitate the process, BB also instructed banks to prioritize Krishak Smart Card holders while extending loans from the refinancing fund for marginal and landless farmers, sharecroppers, small account holders and micro-enterprises.

The move is aimed at ensuring that affected farmers can obtain working capital quickly for crop rehabilitation, purchasing agricultural inputs and continuing farming operations despite weather-related setbacks.

The central bank, however, clarified that eligible farmers should not be denied access to loans solely because they have not yet received a Krishak Smart Card.Finance Daily Reports

Bangladesh Bank said the special emphasis on flood-affected farmers reflects its commitment to supporting rural communities facing climate-induced challenges and maintaining food production across the country.

All other provisions of the existing refinancing scheme will remain unchanged, the circular added.

The Customs House, Chattogram has put 102 containers of abandoned goods up for online auction as part of efforts to reduce congestion at the country’s busiest seaport and improve operational efficiency.

According to a press release issued by the National Board of Revenue (NBR) on Monday, the goods will be auctioned through the e-Auction programme this month. The auction comprises 44 lots containing 102 containers of various products, including chemicals, machinery and spare parts, paper, freezers, generators, limestone, fabrics, transformers, quartz powder and household items.

The NBR said no reserve price has been set for the consignments, allowing bidders to compete freely.

The auction will be conducted entirely through a digital platform to ensure transparency and accountability. Interested buyers will be able to inspect the goods before submitting bids online through the customs e-Auction portal. However, bid security instruments and other required documents must be submitted physically.

The tender box for the auction will be opened at 11:00am on June 18.

According to data from the Chittagong Port Authority and the NBR, around 200,000 tonnes of imported goods stored in 8,965 containers were left abandoned at Chattogram Port between 2013 and 2025.

Importers abandon consignments for a variety of reasons, including declines in domestic prices, failure to submit original documents and obtain the required clearance permits, and unwillingness to pay fines arising from discrepancies or irregularities in import documentation.

At the start of June, following the Eid holidays, the Bangladesh Jewellers’ Association (BAJUS) has reduced the prices of gold and silver in the country’s market on Tuesday.

Price of gold fell by Tk 3,266 per bhori while silver dropped by Tk 177 per bhori.

In a statement, BAJUS said that considering overall market conditions, the price of 22-carat pure gold was reduced by Tk 3,266 per bhori to Tk 234,855.Capital Market Insights

The revised price has been effective since Tuesday morning.

According to the new rates, the market price per bhori (11.664 grams) of 21-carat gold is Tk 224,182, 18-carat gold Tk 192,164, and traditional gold Tk 156,473.

Previously, on May 25, BAJUS adjusted the gold price, raising the 22-carat gold rate by Tk 2,158 per bhori to Tk 238,121.

So far in 2026, the gold price has been revised 70 times in the country’s market, with 37 increases and 33 decreases.

Along with gold, silver prices were also reduced in the market. The price of 22-carat silver fell by Tk 117 per bhori to Tk 5,657.

Other rates include Tk 5,365 per bhori for 21-carat silver, Tk 4,607 per bhori for 18-carat silver, and Tk 3,441 per bhori for traditional silver.

In 2026, silver prices have been adjusted 41 times in the market, with 22 increases and 19 decreases.

The telecom regulator has decided to allocate additional lower-band spectrum to mobile operators through an auction process, aiming to improve network coverage, indoor connectivity and rural service quality.

The Bangladesh Telecommunication Regulatory Commission (BTRC) made the decision at a recent meeting following recommendations from a technical committee tasked with comparing spectrum bands, setting prices and identifying cross-border interference issues, regulatory officials said.

“The additional lower-band spectrum could help operators strengthen network coverage in both urban and rural areas,” said Major General (retd) Md Emdad-Ul-Bari, chairman of the BTRC.

Spectrum refers to the radio frequencies used to transmit mobile signals. Lower-band spectrum with frequencies below around 1,000 MHz is particularly valuable because signals travel farther and penetrate walls more effectively than higher-frequency bands. This allows operators to cover wider areas using fewer towers, cutting infrastructure costs while improving service quality.

“The additional lower-band spectrum could help operators strengthen network coverage in both urban and rural areas,” said Major General (retd) Md Emdad-Ul-Bari, chairman of BTRC
Since multiple operators have applied for the same spectrum blocks, the commission decided to allocate them through a competitive auction rather than direct assignment, officials familiar with the matter said.

According to a committee report presented at the meeting, the Extended GSM (EGSM) band is more practical for Bangladesh in the short term because almost all mobile handsets in the country already support it for 2G services -- voice calls, SMS and low-speed data.

The committee was formed to compare the 850 MHz and EGSM bands, determine spectrum pricing and identify technical barriers, particularly cross-border interference issues affecting parts of the EGSM spectrum.

In its report, the committee noted that lower-band spectrum could significantly improve indoor connectivity in densely populated cities while helping operators reach remote areas.

However, it also identified major interference challenges in parts of the EGSM spectrum, particularly in border areas near India.

To assess the scale of the problem, mobile operators monitored interference levels across Rajshahi, Rangpur, Mymensingh, Sylhet, Cumilla, Chattogram, Khulna, Barishal and Cox’s Bazar, as well as several parts of Dhaka.

Apart from Dhaka, testing was largely carried out at sites between roughly 5 and 50 kilometres from international borders. For technical analysis, the committee split the 8.4 MHz block of EGSM spectrum under consideration into two portions.

The first, Block A, consists of 5 MHz of spectrum in the 880-885 MHz and 925-930 MHz frequency ranges. Frequencies in this band can travel long distances and penetrate buildings effectively, making them particularly valuable for coverage in dense cities and remote areas.

According to the report, interference levels in this block were extremely low in Rajshahi and Khulna. However, significant interference was detected in Rangpur, Mymensingh, Sylhet, Cumilla and Chattogram, especially in border-adjacent areas.

The committee estimated that interference in Block A could affect approximately 40 to 50 percent of Bangladesh’s total geographic area.

The second portion, known as Block B, includes 3.4 MHz spectrum in the 885-888.4/930-933.4 MHz range.

The committee found that interference in this block was comparatively lower. Significant interference was observed only in Rangpur, while most other regions remained practically interference-free.

The report stated that the interference impact in Block B would likely remain limited to around 5 to 10 percent of the country’s area, making it more commercially attractive for operators.

Despite these challenges, the committee concluded that the EGSM band should still be considered more suitable than the 850 MHz band for short-term allocation because of handset compatibility and immediate deployment feasibility.

The 850 MHz band offers stronger signal reach and better building penetration, but relatively few handsets in Bangladesh currently support it, limiting how quickly operators could put it to use.

There is one limitation worth noting for the EGSM band as well. Since Bangladesh still has relatively low smartphone penetration, only around 60 percent of users may be able to use the band effectively for data services.

For commercial allocation, the committee proposed dividing the same 8.4 MHz into three blocks -- one of 1.6 MHz and two of 3.4 MHz each -- based on operator demand. Robi Axiata currently holds the 1.6 MHz portion, while both Robi and Banglalink have applied for the two 3.4 MHz blocks.

Apart from deciding to auction the spectrum, the commission also endorsed the committee’s pricing recommendations and agreed to forward them to the Posts and Telecommunications Division for policy approval.

For the lower-interference 3.4 MHz block, the committee recommended setting the base price at Tk 237 crore per MHz for a 15-year period, matching the government-approved benchmark price for the 700 MHz band.

However, considering that the spectrum would only remain available until 2030 and that some limited interference still exists in certain areas, the commission said the government may consider reducing the base price by up to 10 percent.

For the more interference-prone 5 MHz block, the committee proposed a larger discount. Operators argued for a steeper reduction -- between 30 and 40 percent below the Tk 237 crore benchmark -- on the grounds that cross-border interference would prevent them from using the spectrum nationwide. However, the commission settled on a maximum discount of 25 percent.

The committee further recommended that operators use technical filters and mitigation tools to minimise interference and improve coexistence within the band.

The UN CDP’s recommendation to consider an extension of Bangladesh’s preparatory period for LDC graduation is a highly significant development. It is also consistent with the findings of the Graduation Readiness Assessment, earlier commissioned by UNOHRLLS at the request of the interim government. Overall, these assessments strengthen the case that Bangladesh’s LDC timeline extension request is a justified appeal to manage a complex transition under exceptional circumstances.

The CDP’s assessment confirms two things at once. First, Bangladesh continues to meet the graduation criteria by a wide margin, and its graduation eligibility is not in question. Second, Bangladesh has faced a combination of shocks, including the lingering effects of the pandemic, global economic instability, geopolitical tensions, supply-chain disruptions, and a major domestic political transition, all of which have constrained the implementation of critical preparatory measures. The recommendation therefore gives Bangladesh’s request stronger legitimacy within the UN process.

The next step will be to secure support in the UN General Assembly. Bangladesh should not assume that the CDP recommendation alone will automatically translate into approval. A focused diplomatic drive is now essential. The government will need to engage with UN member states, explain the evidence behind the request, demonstrate that the extension will be used for concrete reform actions, and reassure partners that Bangladesh remains fully committed to graduation.At the same time, Bangladesh must navigate the process with care. In the current global environment, geopolitical issues have become a serious development risk. While support should be sought from all relevant partners, the LDC graduation extension should not become a bargaining chip in ways that compel Bangladesh to make costly concessions to major powers. Diplomatic engagement should therefore be broad-based, principled, and carefully coordinated, with the extension framed as a development-transition issue rather than a matter of geopolitical alignment.

The CDP recommendation makes the case for an extension considerably stronger. It gives Bangladesh a credible basis for arguing that additional time is warranted on developmental, institutional, and transition-management grounds. However, we must treat this extension as a time-bound window for accelerating long-overdue reforms and strengthening graduation preparedness, not as a pause or a justification for delaying difficult policy decisions. Three years will pass very quickly.

Immediate priorities must include urgently securing post-graduation trading arrangements with the European Union, which absorbs nearly half of Bangladesh’s exports and where the country’s garment sector will face intensifying competitive pressure in the aftermath of the EU’s free trade agreements with Viet Nam and India. Failure to secure favourable market access could significantly erode Bangladesh’s export competitiveness. At the same time, Bangladesh must strengthen export resilience by accelerating diversification beyond traditional products and markets, reducing the longstanding anti-export bias embedded in domestic policies, enhancing productivity and compliance standards, and fast-tracking the implementation of the key measures identified in the Smooth Transition Strategy for LDC graduation.

This is where foreign direct investment becomes central. Bangladesh’s limited progress in non-RMG exports shows that export diversification cannot be achieved through domestic production capacity alone. The missing link has been FDI. While Bangladesh has developed a large and competitive garment sector, its non-RMG sectors have remained weakly connected to global value chains, international buyers, quality-control systems, design networks, and distribution channels. FDI can help close this gap by bringing technology, managerial capability, compliance systems, global sourcing relationships, and access to established markets.

Successful diversifiers have used foreign investors and joint ventures to anchor domestic firms within global production networks. Bangladesh must now treat FDI not as a general investment objective, but as a core instrument of export transformation. This requires a more focused investment strategy. Rather than spreading policy attention thinly across too many economic zones and sectors, a few selected special economic zones should be prioritised and made fully functional for export-oriented investors. These zones should offer reliable power and gas, customs facilitation, serviced land, duty-free input access, compliance infrastructure, labour-skills support, and fast-track regulatory services.

If needed, generous but disciplined incentives should be offered to attract a small number of large foreign multinational export manufacturers. Securing a few credible anchor investors can have a demonstration effect: once global firms begin producing successfully in Bangladesh, suppliers, logistics providers, buyers, and other investors are more likely to follow. As multinational firms seek to reduce excessive dependence on major geopolitical power manufacturing locations, Bangladesh can position itself as a competitive, non-power-aligned production base for global exports. Bangladesh has already demonstrated its ability to produce at scale, supported by abundant labour, an established export culture, and proximity to Asian supply chains. These advantages will count only if Bangladesh presents itself as a reliable, reform-oriented, and export-ready location.

Several long overdue actions require urgent attention. Foremost among them is fixing the Central Effluent Treatment Plant in Savar and ensuring environmental compliance in the leather sector. This would restore credibility and signal seriousness to investors. Other priorities include creating affordable export-support financing for man-made fibre-based apparel, improving product quality and compliance standards in agro-processing and other promising export sectors, reducing logistics and trade-related costs, and preparing for emerging regulatory requirements such as the EU’s Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive and the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism.

The issue of export incentives also deserves special consideration. While many broader policy reforms have stalled, the reduction of export incentives appears to have been placed on a much faster track. This sequencing is questionable. The resurgence of industrial policy globally, and recent experience from export success by various economies, suggest that carefully designed support for exports remains important for building supply-side capacity and strengthening competitiveness. With the possibility of an extension of Bangladesh’s graduation timeline, the country must use any available policy space strategically. Export support should not be indiscriminate, but it should be targeted and linked to export expansion, diversification, technology upgrading, compliance, and new market entry. Removing support before alternative competitiveness-enhancing reforms are in place could weaken the very sectors Bangladesh needs to build for the post-LDC period.

More fundamentally, the success of any extended preparatory period will depend on domestic economic management. Tackling inflation, restoring macroeconomic stability, addressing banking-sector weaknesses, and strengthening implementation capacity remain critical. Without progress in these areas, an extension may provide temporary relief but not a stronger transition. The real test, therefore, will be whether Bangladesh can use the additional time to accelerate reforms, deepen productive capacity, attract export-oriented investment, and enter the post-LDC phase with greater confidence and resilience.

The government’s ongoing effort to formulate a new five-year strategic framework presents a timely opportunity to embed LDC graduation preparedness within a broader national development action plan. Rather than treating graduation-related measures as a parallel exercise, the plan should explicitly align its priorities, targets, and implementation mechanisms with the requirements of a successful post-LDC transition.

In this regard, Bangladesh already possesses a valuable foundation in the STS, which contains a comprehensive set of actions covering macroeconomy, export competitiveness and diversification, productive capacity, institutional strengthening, and international partnerships. Many of these measures can be incorporated directly into the forthcoming development framework. The new strategic plan should therefore establish clear priorities, assign institutional responsibilities, define implementation timelines, and allocate the necessary resources to ensure that the most critical graduation-related reforms are carried out within the available window of opportunity.