China's e-commerce export engine is faltering as surging jet fuel costs and weak demand from lower-income consumers in the West linked to the Iran war threaten profits for big online platforms like Temu, Shein and AliExpress.

The business models, based on flying $5 dresses from Chinese factories to shoppers around the world, were already under pressure after US President Donald Trump introduced tariffs and axed customs waivers on low-value parcels last year.

Soaring logistics costs stemming from the Middle East conflict are adding to the strain, data shows and industry insiders say, with shippers like DHL Express imposing hefty fuel surcharges.

China's low-cost e-commerce exports, which have surged over the past six years, fell 10.9% in April to $9.81 billion, the fifth consecutive month of declines compared to a year ago, according to an analysis of Chinese customs data by Luxembourg-based consultancy Trade and Transport Group.

Passing on costs to consumers

Diana Qiao, a Shenzhen-based seller of women's clothing on Temu, said she had raised her selling prices by $2 because her shipping cost per garment had increased on average by $1.

"The final burden is ultimately borne by consumers," said Qiao, adding that the increase was needed to protect her profit margins, and sales have declined slightly but she does not so far see a need to change her shipping arrangements.

Falling export values are an indication not just of the cost squeeze, but also that the era of hyper-growth for the large low-cost shopping platforms may be over, analysts and industry insiders say.

They are likely moving more products in bulk into warehouses to dispatch locally rather than flying everything direct from China, said Frederic Horst, Trade and Transport Group's managing director.

"It would make sense given the air freight cost relative to the value of the product," he said. "If you're buying a top that is 300-400 grams you're getting to the stage where air freight is 60% of the cost."

Shein has been expanding its warehouse capacity in Europe, last month opening its third warehouse in Cannock, near Birmingham in Britain.

A spokesperson at AliExpress owner Alibaba told Reuters it remained focused on "maintaining value-for-money pricing for consumers and providing a stable environment for sellers and consumers despite the volatility in global transportation costs".

Shein and Temu did not respond to questions about the effect of air freight costs on their businesses.

Platforms face weaker demand as business matures

To be sure, exports are still much higher than they were two years ago, and the start of 2025 was marked by significant frontloading ahead of US tariffs.

But returning to the growth of the past few years will be harder as Shein and Temu have already gained significant market share and surging petrol prices are hurting household budgets in the US and Europe. The European Union is also set to impose a €3 fee on low-value e-commerce parcels from 1 July.

Air freight costs have an impact but the platforms are also in a slower-growth phase and consumption overseas is decreasing because of inflation, said a China-based freight forwarding executive who declined to be named because he is not authorised to speak to the media.

Air freight rates are likely to stay high because of jet fuel prices and will take time to fall even if the Iran conflict ends, said Judah Levine, freight platform Freightos' head of research.

"If the costs stay very high, or even increase further, companies may switch to other modes of transport or hold back some of their shipments," said Martin Habisreitinger, Hellmann Worldwide Logistics' chief operating officer of airfreight.

The biggest oil supply shock in decades has entered its fourth month – with no resolution in sight as neither the US nor Iran appears willing to budge - yet the market remains surprisingly calm. This disconnect reflects an uncomfortable reality: the biggest drivers of today’s energy market are a host of unknowns.

The renewed strikes between Iran and Israel over the weekend have sent oil prices up over 4 percent to $98 a barrel on Monday, but Brent ​crude remains well below levels seen only a few weeks ago and comfortably within the range of the past two decades.

This has happened even though the Strait of Hormuz – the world’s most critical oil chokepoint – has remained largely ‌shut for more than three months, disrupting flows equivalent to roughly 13 percent of global supply.

A large part of the market’s sanguine mood reflects expectations that conditions in the Gulf could change overnight. US President Donald Trump’s repeated assertions in recent weeks that a deal with Iran is imminent have helped cool prices.

Yet there is little evidence that Washington and Tehran are moving closer to a durable agreement, with both sides continuing to strike targets across the region.

Even if a formal reopening of Hormuz occurs in the next few weeks – a scenario that is hardly the base case – this would not instantly translate into a full recovery of ​flows. Shipping is governed as much by risk assessments as by geopolitics. Tanker operators, insurers and traders are likely to remain cautious about re-entering the Gulf, fearing vessels could once again become stranded in the event of renewed hostilities.

While there are ​increasing indications that more cargoes have been leaving the Gulf in recent weeks using stealth channels, these are short-term solutions being employed by desperate operators, not a long-term strategy for the world’s largest energy companies.

What’s more, this opacity speaks to the larger problem. Oil traders are mostly operating in the dark, regarding both supply and demand, raising the risk of a nasty surprise if their assumptions prove faulty.

HOW LONG CAN STOCKS GO?

The first major unknown is exactly how ​long global inventories can last. Governments and companies have tapped commercial stocks and strategic reserves at an unprecedented pace since the conflict broke out on February 28.

Global crude and fuel stocks fell at a pace of 5.27 million barrels per day in March, accelerating to 8.62 million ​bpd in April and likely approaching 9 million bpd in May, according to the US Energy Information Administration. Draws could rise further to around 11 million bpd in June as seasonal demand increases ahead of the Northern Hemisphere summer.

These are extraordinary numbers – equivalent to running down Saudi Arabia’s pre-war production every single day.

The United States offers a stark illustration. Total US crude inventories, including the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, have fallen by roughly 10 percent this year to 1.5 billion barrels – the lowest since 2004.

At Cushing, Oklahoma – the delivery point for West Texas Intermediate futures – stocks have dropped to 22.4 million barrels, the lowest since January. If ​draws continue at the recent average pace, inventories could soon fall below 20 million barrels, a level widely seen as the minimum operational threshold needed to keep the hub functioning smoothly.

The market has proven remarkably adaptable in recent months and could continue to find workarounds, ​but storage systems are not infinitely flexible. Once those “tank bottoms” are approached, prices would typically be expected to shoot up to reflect scarcity.

THE CHINESE ENIGMA

Another key unknown is China.

The world’s second-largest oil consumer has sharply reduced its seaborne crude imports in response to higher prices, with imports falling in ‌May to 6.36 million bpd, the lowest level in nearly a decade.

That decline has provided significant relief to other importers by easing competition for scarce cargoes. But it has also introduced a new layer of uncertainty.

First, China could decide to go back into the market at any moment.

China does not publish timely or comprehensive consumption data, leaving the market largely in the dark about how much demand has actually been affected.

Chinese refiners may have drawn on commercial inventories to offset lower imports, or Beijing may have begun to tap its vast – but opaque – strategic reserves.

If the latter is true, global supply could be tightening more than traders currently estimate. If not, the drop in imports may signal a sharper-than-expected slowdown in demand.

Either way, this lack of clarity regarding a fundamental driver of the global supply-demand balance at such a precarious moment ​is troubling – and could leave some suddenly finding themselves on the ​wrong side of a trade.

THE INVISIBLE BALANCING FORCE

The difficulty of gauging China points to a broader problem: demand is inherently harder to measure than supply.

While the industry has developed increasingly sophisticated tools to track crude production, refining activity and tanker movements – often in near real time – consumption remains fragmented across billions of users and is often only reported with significant delays. In some cases, such as China, it is not reported at all.

As a result, estimating the level ​of demand destruction caused by the current supply shock has become an exercise in inference. In theory, the mechanism is straightforward: tightening supply depletes inventories, higher prices follow, and demand is gradually destroyed. ​In practice, that process is messy, uneven and difficult to observe in real time.

The International Energy Agency last month revised its global demand outlook dramatically, forecasting it to contract by 420,000 bpd in 2026, compared with a pre-war expectation of 1.3 million bpd in growth. Consumption is expected to fall by 2.45 million bpd in the second quarter alone.

Some analysts and trading houses are more bearish, estimating that demand could have declined by as much as 5 million bpd in May.

Whichever figure is correct, the longer the Hormuz disruption persists, the greater the drag on economic activity and fuel demand.

The oil market today appears remarkably relaxed in ​the face of a prolonged and unprecedented disruption.

Part of that may be fatigue after months of volatility, but it also may reflect how little anyone currently ​knows about the true state of the oil market – including the experts – and how much pricing is based on sentiment and expectations.

That is a precarious foundation.

Bangladesh has set itself an ambitious objective: developing a creative economy that can generate jobs, exports and investment through media, entertainment and digital content.

Policymakers increasingly recognise that film, television, streaming platforms and digital creators can become important drivers of economic growth, employment and global reach of Bangladeshi content.

For this ambition to succeed, Bangladesh must also address a growing challenge that threatens the long-term sustainability of the media and entertainment ecosystem.

A creative economy can only thrive when creative assets have value.

When intellectual property is routinely copied, redistributed and consumed without authorisation, the incentives that drive investment, innovation and content creation begin to erode.

Piracy is therefore no longer merely a copyright issue -- it is a direct challenge to Bangladesh's creative economy ambitions.

In Bangladesh today, illegal access to broadcast and entertainment content is no longer confined to obscure websites. It is becoming increasingly normalised.

What is often described as “piracy” reflects a broader shift in content distribution.

Content is increasingly accessed through a mix of illicit streaming services, social media streams and unlicensed platforms that carry broadcast signals over IP-based networks outside established licensing frameworks.

It is the emergence of an unregulated digital distribution layer operating alongside, and increasingly replacing the formal system.

As internet penetration rises and streaming becomes mainstream, piracy is expanding rapidly.

Bangladesh, with its growing appetite for sports, entertainment and digital content, is entering a critical phase where piracy risks becoming deeply entrenched across the content ecosystem.

While the immediate impact falls on broadcasters, rights holders and content distributors, the broader implications extend across the creative economy.

For a country seeking to expand the global reach of its content and attract investment into media and entertainment, ensuring that those who create, distribute and invest in content can capture its value becomes increasingly important.

Every successful creative economy is ultimately built on intellectual property.

Whether through long-form, short-form or creator-led content, the underlying asset is content that can be licensed, monetised and exported.

That value chain also depends on broadcasters, Pay TV operators, streaming platforms and licensed distribution networks that invest in acquiring, distributing and monetising local and international content.

Piracy directly undermines this model.

When it becomes widespread, legitimate revenues decline, weakening incentives to invest in new content and reducing the broader economic contribution of the formal media ecosystem.

Investors become more cautious, content budgets shrink, and creators struggle to capture the value of their work.

The consequence is not merely lost revenue today but less content, less innovation and fewer opportunities tomorrow.

Over time, this can also limit job creation across the broader media and entertainment value chain, from production and distribution to creative and technical professions.

Ambitions to increase the global reach of Bangladeshi films, television programmes and digital content will be strengthened by a regulatory environment that gives creators, investors and distributors confidence that intellectual property rights are effectively protected. Bangladesh already has a legal framework.

The Copyright Act 2023 prohibits unauthorised distribution and retransmission of broadcast content, including digital distribution over IP networks.

The law provides both civil and criminal remedies against infringement. Yet piracy continues to thrive because the challenge is not legal absence but enforcement.

As broadcast and internet-based distribution increasingly converge, regulatory responsibilities are spread across multiple authorities, including the Ministry of Information and Broadcasting (MoIB), the Bangladesh Telecommunication Regulatory Commission (BTRC) and relevant authorities responsible for digital governance and cybersecurity.

Addressing piracy in its current form therefore requires coordinated enforcement rather than isolated action.

Piracy itself is evolving as content distribution becomes increasingly digital and interconnected.

It increasingly occurs through digital and IP-based platforms operating outside established licensing and regulatory frameworks, creating new challenges for enforcement. The implications extend beyond lost revenue.

These networks often operate outside regulatory visibility, relying on foreign-hosted infrastructure and opaque payment channels, while exposing consumers to cybersecurity risks and weak protections.

Piracy is therefore not only a content issue but also a broader question of digital governance and ecosystem integrity.

Digitalisation is often presented as an important solution to piracy, but not all digital systems are equal.

To be effective, digitalisation must be supported by technologies and systems that enable traceability, content protection, compliance and accurate subscriber reporting.

Without these safeguards, digital platforms can simply make unauthorised redistribution more efficient. Effective digitalisation should strengthen visibility, accountability and enforcement.

The challenge facing Bangladesh is therefore not one of legislation but of execution.

Two priorities stand out. First, more effective enforcement of existing laws, supported by stronger coordination between broadcasting, telecommunications and digital governance authorities to address increasingly complex digital distribution models.

Second, a structured approach to digitalisation that prioritises transparency, traceability and system-wide accountability.

As Bangladesh seeks to strengthen its position in media and entertainment, the protection and commercialisation of creative assets will become increasingly important to attracting investment, supporting innovation and fostering sustainable growth.

In this context, piracy should be viewed through a broader lens of economic competitiveness and digital governance.

Bangladesh's creative economy will increasingly depend on its ability to create, monetise and export intellectual property.

As media, entertainment and digital content become more important drivers of growth, ensuring that creators and investors can realise the value of their work will be essential.

Ultimately, the success of the creative economy will depend not only on producing more content, but also on creating the conditions that allow that content to generate lasting economic value.

While an established legal framework exists, the opportunity now lies in strengthening enforcement, improving coordination across institutions and building a digital ecosystem that supports innovation, investment and accountability.

Doing so can help create the conditions for a more vibrant media and entertainment sector and support the continued growth of Bangladesh's creative economy.

The country’s steel manufacturers yesterday urged the government to reverse the recent electricity tariff hike, warning that it will increase production costs, push up steel prices and slow economic activity.

The government raised electricity tariffs for industrial consumers by about 17 percent, effective from June. Industry leaders said the move comes at a time when steelmakers are already struggling with weak demand, high borrowing costs, a weaker taka, gas shortages and difficulties in opening letters of credit.

“The new tariff alone will increase steel production costs by around Tk 1,785 per tonne,” said Mohammad Jahangir Alam, president of the Bangladesh Steel Manufacturers Association (BSMA), at a press conference at the Jatiya Press Club in Dhaka.

He added that when VAT, port charges, fuel, transport costs and higher raw material prices are included, the total additional cost could reach Tk 3,560 per tonne, while overall production costs have already increased by nearly Tk 5,000 per tonne.

Industry leaders also called for a review of capacity payments, power contracts and reserve margins, saying lower electricity costs, better energy efficiency and diversified energy sources are essential for sector growth and competitiveness
Alam warned that the price of 60-grade MS (mild steel) rod, the most widely used steel product in construction, is currently Tk 91,000 to Tk 92,000 per tonne at the retail level and could rise to at least Tk 97,000 per tonne.

“The burden will fall directly on the construction and infrastructure sectors. Higher project costs could slow both public and private investment and ultimately weigh on overall economic growth,” he said.

The BSMA said the sector has attracted over Tk 1 lakh crore in investment and employs around 10 lakh people.

It added that Bangladesh has about 40 modern steel mills and over 150 re-rolling mills, with a combined annual production capacity of around 1.22 crore tonnes, while domestic demand is only about 50 lakh tonnes a year, meaning mills are operating at less than half of their installed capacity.

Alam also said steelmakers have made significant investments in their own power infrastructure, including 230kV, 132kV and 33kV substations, allowing them to receive electricity directly and avoid adding to distribution losses.

Referring to a recent public hearing by the Bangladesh Energy Regulatory Commission, he said the Bangladesh Power Development Board admitted that high-voltage consumers like steel mills face almost no system losses and are profitable customers.

Despite this, electricity tariffs have increased by around 60 percent to 70 percent over the past five years.

Alam urged the government to withdraw the latest tariff hike and gradually reduce annual capacity payments of Tk 40,000 to Tk 50,000 crore, warning that further cost increases could threaten the sustainability of the steel industry.

BSMA Secretary General Sumon Chowdhury also called for a review of recent electricity price hikes and a reduction in capacity payment burdens, saying these measures are weakening the competitiveness of local industries.

“Reducing electricity costs is essential for sustaining industrial growth,” he said.

According to Chowdhury, capacity payments to power producers rose from Tk 32,000 crore in the fiscal year (FY) 2023-24 to nearly Tk 42,000 crore in FY2024-25.

He suggested reviewing these costs and renegotiating power contracts to reduce pressure on both industries and consumers.

Chowdhury also proposed revising or cancelling costly power sector agreements, phasing out expired rental and quick-rental power plants, and reducing the country’s reserve generation margin to below 25 percent.

He further called for greater energy diversification, including higher investment in renewable energy and reduced dependence on imported fuels and LNG.

He also urged greater transparency in public spending and stronger engagement between policymakers and business leaders to support industrial growth and protect the economy.

BSMA Vice President Maruf Mohsin said ferroalloy is a key raw material used in steel production and has been manufactured locally for the past 17 years, helping the country save millions of dollars in foreign exchange by reducing import dependence.

He said the production process is highly electricity-intensive, and any further rise in power costs would significantly reduce profitability, putting ferroalloy producers under severe financial pressure and potentially forcing some plants to shut down.

Former BSMA president Manwar Hossain, former vice president Sk Masadul Alam Masud, and BSRM adviser Kazi Anwar Ahmed were also present at the conference.

Bangladesh could face a potential loss of $17.5 billion in exports after graduating from the least developed country category due to the loss of preferential market access in developed economies, Commerce Minister Khandakar Abdul Muktadir told parliament today (8 June).

Replying to a question from Chattogram-11 lawmaker Jasim Uddin Ahmed during the second day of the second session and first budget session of the 13th Jatiya Sangsad, the minister said the government had already launched a series of trade and market diversification initiatives to address the challenges arising from the country's transition to developing nation status.

"Bangladesh will soon graduate from the LDC category. As a result, the country will lose preferential market facilities currently available under various trading schemes offered by developed countries, which may adversely affect exports worth around $17.5 billion," he said.

To mitigate the impact, Bangladesh has already concluded an Economic Partnership Agreement with Japan, while negotiations for a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement with South Korea are underway, the minister said.

He said that the government has also initiated efforts to sign EPA, CEPA or Free Trade Agreements with the European Union, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, the United Arab Emirates, Singapore, Indonesia, China and other potential export destinations.

The minister attributed the country's widening trade deficit partly to policy failures of the previous government and partly to global economic factors, including the energy crisis, the Russia-Ukraine war, rising commodity prices, dollar shortages and adverse international market conditions.

He said that higher import costs for fuel, food and industrial raw materials, coupled with slower export growth, had contributed significantly to the trade imbalance.

According to data presented in the JS, Bangladesh's trade deficit widened to $24.16 billion in the financial year 2024-25 from $21.50 billion in FY2023-24.

Exports stood at $55.19 billion against imports worth $79.35 billion during the period.

The minister said that despite exporting goods to 202 countries and territories in FY2024-25, the readymade garment sector still accounted for 84 per cent of the country's export earnings.

He said that to reduce dependence on a single sector, the government has undertaken initiatives to extend facilities similar to those enjoyed by the garment industry to other promising export sectors.

Partial exporters in eight sectors, leather and leather goods, jute and jute products, agricultural products, pharmaceuticals, ICT and software services, light engineering products, frozen foods and fish, and plastic products, have already been granted bonded warehouse facilities against bank guarantees, the minister said.

Muktadir said that the government was also supporting entrepreneurs in eight priority sectors through the Business Promotion Council and had formulated the Export Policy 2024-2027 to strengthen Bangladesh's position in global trade through sustainable export growth.

To expand market access and remove trade barriers, Bangladesh is continuing engagement through various bilateral platforms, including trade and investment arrangements with Australia, the United Kingdom, Vietnam, Thailand, Uzbekistan, Belarus and Canada, he said.

The minister said that efforts were also underway to explore new export markets in Latin America, Africa and the Commonwealth of Independent States through trade missions comprising government and private sector representatives.

Other measures include strengthening economic diplomacy through Bangladesh missions abroad, providing foreign currency loans from the Export Development Fund for raw material imports, and creating a Tk5,000 crore low-interest pre-shipment loan fund for export-oriented industries through Bangladesh Bank.

commerce minister said that the government had declared paper and packaging products as the Product of the Year 2026 in a bid to diversify exports, create employment and promote women's economic empowerment, he added.

Replying to a separate question from Bagerhat-4 lawmaker Abdul Alim, the minister outlined Bangladesh's ongoing efforts to strengthen trade ties within South Asia.

He said Bangladesh and Bhutan signed a PTA in December 2020, under which 100 Bangladeshi products and 34 Bhutanese products enjoy duty-free market access.

Negotiations on PTAs with Nepal and Sri Lanka are progressing, while Bangladesh is also preparing for further negotiations with India on a proposed Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement.

Muktadir said Bangladesh was prioritising bilateral, regional and multilateral trade agreements with key economic blocs and countries in Asia, Europe, Africa and the Middle East to strengthen export competitiveness and attract investment after LDC graduation.

In response to another question from reserved-seat lawmaker Selina Sultana, the minister said that Bangladesh continued to face trade deficits with several SAARC countries, particularly India.

In the FY2024-25, Bangladesh recorded a trade deficit of $7.86 billion with India, the largest among SAARC member states.

The country also posted trade deficits with Afghanistan, Bhutan and Sri Lanka.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov yesterday (8 June) said Russia will welcome Bangladesh as a candidate for the BRICS membership once the process resumes, stressing that advantages from the BRICS membership are obvious.

"As for BRICS, the ten members currently comprising the group have agreed to put the admission of new members on hold for the time being, because just two years ago the number of BRICS members doubled overnight, and we need a little time to adjust to the new lineup," he said after his bilateral talks with Foreign Minister Khalilur Rahman in Moscow.

"But our stance on Bangladesh's candidature when this pause is over is as follows: we will welcome the candidature of this large and important Asian nation," Lavrov added.

BRICS brings together eleven major emerging markets and developing countries of the world: Brazil, China, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Indonesia, Iran, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa and United Arab Emirates.

It serves as a useful platform for consultation and cooperation on contemporary issues having global as well as regional significance and issues of global political and economic governance.

According to the top Russian diplomat, advantages from the BRICS membership are obvious.

That is why "a big number of countries, more than the current number of BRICS members, want to join for these advantages," he said.

"We fully understand the aspirations of the applicants, including our friends from Bangladesh, who are already members and shareholders of the New Development Bank and are very pleased with such participation," said the Russian Foreign Minister.

Bangladesh and Russia have broad opportunities to scale up bilateral trade volumes, Foreign Minister Khalilur Rahman said at a joint press conference with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.

He said they discussed the need for further expanding our ties in different fields; there is ample scope for substantially increasing our trade volumes in both ways.

"We discussed the ways in which we could accomplish this and will continue to have some of the ideas on the table, like the possibility of granting duty-and quota-free treatment, and to assist us to complete a preferential agreement with Eurasian Economic Union," Khalilur said.

The vast potential for cooperation exists also in the labor resources sphere, he added.

A delegation from the Export-Import Bank of China (China Exim Bank) is scheduled to meet Bangladesh Bank today to discuss the possibility of Bangladesh joining China's Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) and issuing Panda Bonds, according to central bank officials.

The discussions come as China seeks to expand the use of its financial infrastructure and currency in cross-border transactions, while Bangladesh explores options to diversify payment channels and financing sources.

A senior Bangladesh Bank official told The Business Standard that the Chinese delegation would present proposals on the two initiatives before the central bank assesses their feasibility and potential implementation.

"The China Exim Bank delegation is expected to arrive today. They want to discuss Panda Bonds and the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS). They will present their ideas, and the central bank will then consider whether these can be implemented," the official said.

The delegation is also expected to hold meetings with the Finance Division, the Bangladesh Investment Development Authority (Bida) and the Bangladesh Economic Zones Authority (Beza).

China has previously proposed that Bangladesh join its payment network, particularly amid growing complexities in international financial transactions following Western sanctions on Russian banks and broader shifts in the global economic landscape.

In March 2024, Yao Wen discussed the CIPS initiative with the then-governor of Bangladesh Bank.

According to Bangladesh Bank sources, CIPS could become the second major international payment network used by Bangladesh after the SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication) system, which dominates global financial messaging.

Sources said Bangladesh Bank has already opened a nostro account with China's central bank. A nostro account is a bank account held by a domestic bank in a foreign bank in the currency of the country where the account is maintained.

Although some Bangladeshi banks maintain nostro accounts in China, their use remains limited because most international trade transactions are still conducted in US dollars.

What is a Panda Bond?

Panda Bonds are yuan-denominated bonds issued in China's domestic bond market by foreign governments, international financial institutions or multinational corporations.

The instruments allow foreign issuers to raise funds directly from Chinese investors. The bonds are denominated in Chinese yuan (RMB), while investors are primarily Chinese institutions, although foreign investors may also participate in certain cases.

Bida meeting to focus on investment issues

Nahian Rahman Rochi, executive member and head of business development at Bida, said the Chinese delegation has a scheduled meeting with the investment promotion agency.

"Various investment-related issues will be discussed during the meeting. However, CIPS and Panda Bonds are primarily on the agenda for discussions with Bangladesh Bank and are not directly under Bida's purview," he said.

Economists view China's CIPS initiative as a potentially strategic alternative payment channel for Bangladesh, although they caution that its practical benefits will depend largely on bilateral trade and financial flows.

Mohammad Abdur Razzaque, chairman of the Research and Policy Integration for Development (RAPID), said alternative payment systems could serve as an important long-term strategic option for Bangladesh.

"These initiatives can be positive for Bangladesh, but their actual benefits will depend on the volume and direction of trade and financial transactions between the two countries," he told TBS.

Razzaque noted that Bangladesh imports significantly more from China than it exports, meaning that introducing yuan-based transactions alone would not automatically generate substantial benefits.

He argued that greater Chinese investment, loans and project financing would be necessary to make cross-border settlements under CIPS more effective.

"If China increases investment in economic zones, infrastructure projects and industrial sectors, or extends financing in yuan, those inflows could facilitate cross-border settlements. Otherwise, Bangladesh may still need to rely on the US dollar for a large share of its transactions," he said.

"It opens up a new possibility, but the extent of the real benefits will depend on the future trajectory of economic relations and transaction flows between the two countries," he added.

The benchmark index of the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) ended its impressive 10-session winning streak today (8 June) as investors moved to lock in gains following the market's recent rally.

The DSEX shed 33 points, or 0.61%, to close at 5,482, as market participants adopted a cautious stance ahead of the upcoming national budget, market insiders said.

The market remained under pressure from the opening bell, extending the corrective trend that emerged during the latter part of the previous session. Persistent selling across a wide range of stocks kept all major indices in negative territory throughout the day.

The blue-chip DS30 index also declined, losing 18 points to settle at 2,069.

Market breadth strongly favoured the bears, with 247 issues declining against 102 gainers, while 44 stocks remained unchanged on the DSE trading floor.

The broad-based sell-off wiped out nearly Tk1,600 crore from the market capitalisation of the country's premier bourse in a single session.

Investor participation also weakened significantly. Turnover on the DSE fell by 30% to Tk1,072 crore, suggesting that many investors preferred to stay on the sidelines while awaiting potential policy signals from the national budget.

According to EBL Securities' daily market review, concerns surrounding the upcoming budget played a key role in cooling the market's recent bullish momentum.

Several heavyweight stocks exerted downward pressure on the benchmark index, including Square Pharmaceuticals, Beximco Pharmaceuticals, BRAC Bank, LafargeHolcim Bangladesh and British American Tobacco Bangladesh.

Sector-wise, general insurance led trading activity, accounting for 19.2% of total turnover, followed by engineering and pharmaceutical stocks.

Most sectors closed lower, with services, cement and financial institutions posting notable declines. However, general insurance, paper and tannery shares bucked the trend and recorded modest gains.

Among individual stocks, Anwar Galvanizing emerged as the day's top gainer, advancing nearly 10%. Shyampur Sugar Mills and Zeal Bangla Sugar Mills also hit their upper circuit limits.

On the losing side, Nahee Aluminum topped the decliners' list, falling more than 6%, followed by Fareast Finance and SS Steel.

Dominage Steel, Genex Infosys and NCC Bank featured among the most actively traded stocks during the session.

The bearish sentiment was also reflected at the Chittagong Stock Exchange (CSE), where the CASPI index dropped 84 points to close at 15,314. Turnover at the port-city bourse declined 24% to Tk43 crore.

Asian stocks plunged on Monday as investors rushed out of the hottest AI-linked shares on fears the bull run has gone too far, too fast and as fresh hostilities in Iran pushed up oil prices.

The twin triggers for a rout that is highlighting a fragile market mood were last week's disappointing outlook at chipmaker Broadcom and a surprisingly strong US jobs report on Friday that has traders pricing a rate hike this year.

Korea's chip-heavy KOSPI, the world's best-performing market this year, led losses in Asia with a 5% slide that has the benchmark down 13% from last week's record high.

Japan's Nikkei fell almost 4% with market darlings across the computer-chip production supply chain falling furthest, while Taiwan's benchmark sank 3.9%.

Nasdaq futures were attempting a recovery following a sharp selloff on Friday and European futures fell 1%.

The Nasdaq dropped 4.2% on Friday.

"The move looks more like a positioning and momentum unwind than a reassessment of the long-term AI story," said Marc Velan, head of investments at Lucerne Asset Management in Singapore.

"Korean technology names have been among the strongest performers globally and were heavily owned, so when rate expectations shifted after the jobs report, they became a natural source of liquidity."

In bonds, 2-year Treasury yields rose more than 11 basis points on Friday and were up 1.6 bps on Monday to 4.1782%.

"The AI-drives-everything narrative frayed last week," said Bob Savage, head of markets macro strategy at BNY.

"Whether this is a healthy pause in the nine-week equity rally or a top remains the key question. The IPO focus on SpaceX and Anthropic is part of the pause – whether to make room for the new market cap or to rethink value."

Inflation and ECB ahead

The Middle East situation also remains delicate and Brent crude futures were up about 3.5% to $96.45 a barrel on Monday after Israel said it struck military targets in western and central Iran.

The week ahead is headlined by the giant SpaceX listing, expected to price on Thursday and trade on Friday, but inflation will also be in focus with US consumer price data due on Wednesday and central bank meetings in Canada and Europe.

Last week, bitcoin notched its heaviest weekly drop since the collapse of crypto exchange FTX in late 2022, falling about 16%. It was hovering just shy of $63,000 on Monday.

SpaceX's debut is expected to be followed by other major IPOs in the coming months from Anthropic and OpenAI, raising so much money that brokers are nervous it could draw down other assets.

"The market regime has potentially shifted from moderate inflation and rate cuts to potential 'overheating' contributing to higher Treasury yields, a higher path of short-term interest rates and tighter liquidity," said Nick Ferres, CIO of Vantage Point Asset Management in Singapore.

OPEC+ on Sunday agreed to the fourth increase in its oil output targets in as many months.

In currency trading, the dollar was firm and holding above 160 yen and it pushed the Australian dollar to $0.7055. The euro hovered at $1.1531.

এ সময় দেশের পুঁজিবাজারের নিয়ন্ত্রক সংস্থাটির নতুন প্রধানের হাতে ফুলের তোড়া তুলে দেয়া হয়। লংকাবাংলা ক্যাপিটাল মার্কেটের এক সংবাদ বিজ্ঞপ্তি গতকাল এ তথ্য জানানো হয়।
সাক্ষাৎকালে আরো উপস্থিত ছিলেন লংকাবাংলা সিকিউরিটিজ পিএলসির প্রধান নির্বাহী কর্মকর্তা (সিইও) ও পরিচালক খন্দকার সাফ্ফাত রেজা এবং প্রধান আর্থিক কর্মকর্তা (সিএফও) ও কোম্পানি সচিব খাইরুন্নেছা; লংকাবাংলা ইনভেস্টমেন্ট লিমিটেডের সিইও ইফতেখার আলম ও লংকাবাংলা অ্যাসেট ম্যানেজমেন্ট লিমিটেডের সিইও মো. সায়মন ইবনে মুজিবসহ ঊর্ধ্বতন কর্মকর্তারা।

OPEC+ agreed on Sunday a fourth increase in its oil output targets in as many months, even though the US war with Iran is still preventing several of the group's members from pumping more.

The war has cut oil flows via the Strait of Hormuz, creating the world's biggest-ever supply crisis as key OPEC+ members including Saudi Arabia have been unable to supply customers in full since the end of February. The crisis for OPEC+ deepened when the United Arab Emirates left the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries after almost 60 years.

Seven core members of OPEC+, which groups OPEC and allied producers including Russia, have increased their output quotas from April to June by almost 600,000 barrels per day.

In reality, the group's production has collapsed due to export cuts by Gulf members, averaging 33.19 million bpd in April compared with 42.77 million in February, according to OPEC figures.

Impact of production target increase

On Sunday, the seven members decided to increase targets by 188,000 bpd from July, OPEC said in a statement. This is the same as the June hike, which was adjusted down from monthly increases of 206,000 bpd in May and April to take into account the UAE exit.

Iraq's oil output quota will increase by 26,000 bpd from July under the agreement, an oil ministry spokesperson told Iraq's state news agency.

"An OPEC+ production increase means very little while the Strait of Hormuz remains closed," said Jorge Leon, an analyst at Rystad and a former OPEC official.

"When the Strait of Hormuz reopens, the market could move very quickly from fear of shortage to fear of surplus."

On Friday, oil prices fell to around $93 a barrel as traders gained confidence that renewed conflict between the US and Iran was growing less likely. Prices were close to $72 before the war began.

OPEC+ almost done with unwinding 2023 output cut

The seven countries are increasing production as part of the gradual unwinding of a 1.65 million bpd production cut that the group, which at the time included UAE, agreed in 2023.

From July, the seven have about 567,000 bpd of the original cut to return to the market, taking into account the UAE exit from 1 May, according to Reuters calculations.

That would mean the rest of the cut will be unwound by the end of September should OPEC+ stick to monthly hikes of about 188,000 bpd for August and September.

The seven of 21 OPEC+ members who met on Sunday are Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, Russia and Oman. In recent years, only the seven plus the UAE - when it was a member - have been involved in the group's output policy decisions.

In a separate meeting on Sunday of all OPEC+ members, the ministers made no change to group-wide output policy that is in place until the end of 2026, OPEC+ said in another statement.

OPEC+ is carrying out a review of its members' oil production capacity to be used as a reference for 2027 production baselines, from which quotas are set. The group on Sunday affirmed the importance of completing the assessment, the statement said.

The government is set to make it mandatory for businesses to have a Business Identification Number (BIN) to open merchant accounts with mobile financial services (MFS) providers in the fiscal year 2026-27 national budget.

Under the proposed measure, businesses seeking to open merchant accounts with any MFS provider will be required to submit either a valid BIN or proof of enrolment.

Merchant accounts allow businesses to receive digital payments from customers through platforms such as bKash, Nagad, Rocket and Upay.

“A provision will be incorporated into the Finance Bill 2026 to expandthe value-added tax (VAT) base,” said a finance ministry official familiar with the matter, requesting anonymity.

The proposal is part of a broader set of provisions that would make BINs or enrolment certificates mandatory for a range of business-related services, as an effort to strengthen VAT compliance, expand the formal tax net and improve monitoring of business transactions conducted through digital financial platforms.

Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury is expected to formally propose the measure while presenting the national budget in parliament on June 11.

Officials said the proposal has already received in-principle approval from Prime Minister Tarique Rahman at a high-level meeting.

However, industry insiders criticised the move, warning that it could discourage small businesses from adopting digital payments and slow the country’s transition towards a cashless economy.

“This move may set back the journey towards a cashless society. Many small vendors and marginal merchants are reluctant to enter the formal sector because they fear additional compliance requirements and administrative hassles,” said a market insider, requesting anonymity.

The insider added that making BINs mandatory for merchant accounts could discourage some businesses from using digital payment platforms altogether.

There are currently nearly 10 lakh merchant account holders across the country, according to industry sources.

The finance ministry official said the government may also make BIN registration mandatory in several other areas, including opening and operating current or short-term deposit accounts with banks and non-bank financial institutions, obtaining loans, renewing trade licences, securing memberships in trade bodies, obtaining electricity and gas connections, and registering vehicles in the name of a business.

Officials familiar with the proposal said the requirement is intended to bring more businesses into the formal economy and improve the government’s ability to track commercial activities that currently take place outside the tax system.

As part of broader efforts to support domestic industries and ease the tax burden on consumers, the government may reduce VAT rates, extend tax concessions and adjust import duties across several sectors in the upcoming budget, according to National Board of Revenue (NBR) sources.

Under the proposals, VAT at the production stage for air conditioners and refrigerators may be reduced from 15% to 7.5%, with the concession potentially extended until 2030.

Import duty exemptions may also be granted on raw materials used in the production of 68 types of medicines. In addition, reduced import tax benefits for raw materials used in the emerging semiconductor industry may be extended until 2031.

On the revenue side, VAT on mobile SIM card sales may be shifted from a fixed Tk300 to 15% of the sale price.

The import duty on raw materials used in infant food preparation may be reduced from 15% to 10%, which could lower the price of infant formula in the local market. The government may also withdraw the existing 5% regulatory duty on date imports, potentially easing consumer prices.

VAT at the import stage may be removed on more than 30 raw materials used in pesticide and crop protection chemical manufacturing. The duty on zinc ash, the main raw material for zinc sulphate fertiliser, may also be fully withdrawn.

A senior NBR official involved in budget preparation told TBS that the government is seeking to ease the tax burden on marginal taxpayers while also extending tax, VAT and duty concessions up to 2030, and in some cases up to 2035, to encourage investment and employment.

The official added that livestock, poultry and fish products may be included in the list of goods under a reduced source tax of 0.5%, expanding the coverage beyond the current 27 agricultural and food items. These additional 33 products currently face source taxes ranging from 1% to 5%, and the change could help reduce consumer prices.

Locally manufactured AC, refrigerator prices may decline

In last year's budget, the reduced VAT regime for refrigerator and air-conditioner manufacturing was withdrawn and replaced with a 15% VAT rate.

Industry stakeholders say the sectors had long benefited from tax incentives aimed at reducing import dependence, which helped build local manufacturing capacity.

Although the VAT was doubled to 15% in the FY26 budget as part of a gradual withdrawal of incentives, manufacturers are allowed to claim input tax rebates under the higher rate — a facility not available under the 7.5% regime, making the effective burden lower than the nominal rate.

However, NBR officials said imports of refrigerators and air conditioners have risen compared to domestic sales following the VAT increase. One official said imports grew by more than 10% in a year and could rise further if current conditions persist.

He added that the government is considering extending the incentive for another four years, with an announcement likely in the budget scheduled for 11 June.

If approved, prices of locally manufactured refrigerators and air conditioners may decline.

Gold, mobile phones, healthcare items may get cheaper

Gold and gold jewellery are also among products that may see price reductions.

Currently, a 5% VAT on gold sales translates to about Tk12,500 per bhori. The government may replace this with a specific VAT of Tk2,500 per bhori. Source tax on gold jewellery sales may also be reduced from 5% to 0.5%.

If global gold prices remain stable, retail prices in Bangladesh could fall.

Advance income tax on imports of 22 categories of raw materials used in local mobile phone manufacturing may be reduced from 5% to 2% or 1%, potentially lowering handset prices.

Tax benefits for appliances such as washing machines, dishwashers, geysers, blenders and juicers may be extended, helping stabilise prices. Duties on laptop and computer components may also be reduced.

Healthcare-related imports, including cardiac stents, eye lenses and kidney dialysis equipment, may see lower VAT and taxes, potentially reducing treatment costs.

Other products likely to benefit from tax reductions include float glass, lipstick, locally produced edible oil, solar equipment, electric vehicles, EV charging systems, packaging materials, imported fabrics for domestic use, live fish and animals, and key raw materials for pharmaceuticals and semiconductor industries.

Items that may become more expensive

Some products may see higher taxes.

Prices of tobacco products, including bidis and cigarettes, may increase by around 15%, with cigarette prices possibly rising by Tk1 to Tk3 per stick.

Supplementary duty on nicotine pouches may increase by 40%, while domestically produced alcoholic beverages may face a VAT of Tk500 per litre.

VAT on steel products, including rods, may rise from Tk150 to Tk350.

Import duty on cashew nuts may rise from 5% to 25% to encourage local production.

Bangladesh’s economy appears to have expanded at a faster pace in May than in the previous month, supported largely by stronger activity in the manufacturing and services sectors, as the Bangladesh Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) climbed 8.2 points from April to 62.8 in May.

Meanwhile, the construction sector returned to expansion, while growth in the agriculture sector slowed, according to the May PMI report released by the Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce and Industry (MCCI), Dhaka, and Policy Exchange Bangladesh (PEB).

“The May PMI shows that the Bangladesh economy moved onto a stronger expansionary path, with manufacturing, construction and services recording faster growth compared with April,” said M Masrur Reaz, chairman and CEO of PEB.

“Although the Middle East conflict has continued to raise energy costs, disrupt supply chains and sustain inflationary pressures, stronger domestic demand and increased business activity ahead of Eid appear to have supported broader-based expansion across major sectors.”

The PMI is a pioneering initiative designed to provide timely and accurate insights into the country’s economic health, helping businesses, investors and policymakers make informed decisions.

It was developed by MCCI and Policy Exchange, with support from the UK government and technical assistance from the Singapore Institute of Purchasing & Materials Management (SIPMM).

According to the report, the agriculture sector recorded its ninth consecutive month of expansion, albeit at a slightly slower pace.

Business activity and employment posted stronger growth, while new business and input costs expanded at a slower rate. However, the order backlogs index remained in contraction.

The manufacturing sector registered faster expansion, marking its second consecutive month of growth. The stronger performance was driven by robust increases in new orders, new exports, input purchases and employment.

Growth in factory output and input prices moderated. Contractions in finished goods persisted, although supplier deliveries contracted at a slower pace. Both imports and order backlogs returned to expansion.

The construction sector returned to growth after three consecutive months of contraction. New business, construction activity and employment all reverted to expansion.

Input costs expanded at a faster pace, while the growth of order backlogs slowed.

The services sector expanded for the 20th consecutive month and at a faster pace than in April. Business activity, employment and input costs all recorded stronger growth, while new business returned to expansion. However, order backlogs contracted at a faster pace.

Respondents across Bangladesh’s major economic sectors said business conditions remained challenging in May 2026 due to persistent electricity and energy shortages, rising fuel prices, increasing labour costs and higher transportation expenses.

Many firms reported that electricity disruptions continued to affect productivity and production schedules, while escalating input costs further squeezed profit margins.

Several respondents expressed concerns over the potential economic impact of ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the risk of higher fuel prices, supply-chain disruptions and weaker export demand.

Agricultural businesses highlighted weather-related uncertainties affecting seed sales and production planning. Some firms also raised concerns about imported rice, high bank interest rates and the broader slowdown in domestic economic activity.

Despite these challenges, a number of respondents remained cautiously optimistic, expecting business conditions to improve if the energy situation stabilises, economic conditions strengthen and supportive policy measures are introduced for businesses, particularly SMEs.

The Bangladesh Bank has launched four refinance schemes worth a combined Tk 19,000 crore to ease financing constraints on small businesses and farmers, stimulate green investment, generate employment and reduce the country’s heavy dependence on the readymade garment sector for export earnings.

The central bank announced the funds through separate circulars issued on June 7 and June 8, covering a Tk 5,000 crore working capital fund for cottage, micro, small and medium enterprises (CMSMEs); a Tk 3,000 crore export diversification scheme; a Tk 10,000 crore agricultural refinance scheme; and a Tk 1,000 crore green industries and factories fund.

Under all four schemes, participating banks may obtain refinancing from Bangladesh Bank at rates ranging from 2 to 4 percent and lend to customers at maximum rates between 5 and 9 percent, depending on the scheme.

Funds for the CMSME and the export diversification schemes will be drawn from the surplus liquidity of scheduled banks, while the agriculture and green factory schemes will be funded from Bangladesh Bank’s own resources.

The announcements come as businesses continue to struggle with high borrowing costs, liquidity shortages and weak demand, while policymakers seek to broaden the country’s export base and strengthen food security amid growing global competition.

Tk 5,000cr FOR CMSMEs

CMSMEs remain a key driver of Bangladesh’s economy through job creation, support for local industries and production of import-substituting goods. Yet many such enterprises struggle to secure adequate working capital, preventing them from operating at full capacity.

The revolving fund will stay operational for three years. It will cover working capital loans and investments extended to CMSMEs that cannot run at full capacity due to working capital shortages.

Renewed working-capital facilities will also qualify. Borrowers classified as defaulters in the Credit Information Bureau (CIB) database will not be eligible.

The central bank said the objective of the fund is to help businesses increase production capacity, strengthen economic activity and create both direct and indirect employment opportunities across the country.

Tk 3,000cr FOR EXPORTS

The export refinance scheme targets non-garment sectors, with the BB citing the economy’s heavy concentration in RMG as a vulnerability to sector-specific shocks and shifts in global demand.

Refinancing support will be available for industries listed under the highest-priority and special development sectors in the Export Policy 2024-27. Priority will go to producers and exporters using domestically sourced raw materials, particularly in jute and leather.

Financing will be in the form of term loans or investments in local currency. The scheme will run for three years and may include a grace period of up to six months, BB stated in the circular.

Borrowers must maintain a satisfactory credit record. Defaulters will not qualify, and applications will be rejected if export proceeds are not repatriated through the formal banking channel.

Participating banks will also be required to collect updated CIB reports before applying for refinancing support.

According to the BB, many export-oriented industries possess strong growth potential but have failed to expand because of inadequate access to financing. The refinance facility is expected to address this gap and encourage fresh investment in emerging export sectors.

Tk 10,000cr FOR AGRI AND LIVESTOCK

The scheme, the largest of the four, is aimed at boosting agricultural production, strengthening national food security and generating employment in rural areas.

Scheduled banks participating in BB’s agricultural and rural credit programme will receive refinancing at 4 percent and may lend to farmers and entrepreneurs at a maximum of 8 percent.

The five-year fund, financed from the central bank’s own resources, will be managed by its Agricultural Credit Department-1.

The scheme covers crop cultivation, fisheries, livestock, agricultural machinery, irrigation equipment and other income-generating agricultural activities.

Small and marginal farmers may obtain loans of up to Tk 5 lakh for crop production without collateral, against crop hypothecation.

Loan ceilings have been set at Tk 30 lakh for crop production; Tk 15 lakh for livestock and other agricultural activities; Tk 20 lakh for agricultural machinery; and Tk 1 crore for fisheries and livestock projects.

Banks will be required to maintain separate accounts, submit regular reports and ensure proper monitoring of loan utilisation and recovery under the scheme.

Tk 1,000cr FOR GREEN INDUSTRIES AND FACTORIES

The fund is designed to accelerate investment in green industries and environmentally sustainable factory buildings, in support of Bangladesh’s climate and sustainable development goals.

Under the scheme, banks and financial institutions will be able to access refinance support at a 2 percent interest rate -- the lowest rate among the four schemes -- and lend to eligible borrowers at a maximum of 5 percent.

The scheme’s tenure will range from three to 10 years, with a grace period of up to one year. The fund, sourced from Bangladesh Bank’s own resources, will take immediate effect.

The facility will finance the establishment of green industries and factory buildings certified or pre-certified under internationally recognised standards, including LEED, EDGE, BEEER and GreenARCH.

A single borrower may receive up to Tk 100 crore, with projects required to maintain a minimum debt-equity ratio of 70:30. Defaulted borrowers will not be eligible.

Participating banks and financial institutions must comply with the BB’s sustainable finance, environmental and social risk management, and climate risk management and disclosure guidelines.

MONITORING

To access any of the four facilities, scheduled banks must sign participation agreements with the BB and meet all relevant risk management and regulatory requirements.

The central bank will monitor fund utilisation through reporting requirements and on-site inspections. Misuse of funds, submission of inaccurate information or non-compliance with scheme conditions could result in cancellation of refinancing facilities and financial penalties.

After more than a decade of delays due to administrative, financing and implementation hurdles, the proposed Chinese Economic and Industrial Zone in Chattogram's Anwara upazila is finally moving towards implementation.

The Bangladesh Economic Zones Authority (Beza) is working to complete the developer agreement and secure approval for the project's supporting infrastructure before Prime Minister Tarique Rahman's scheduled four-day visit to China starting on 23 June.

As part of that effort, a Tk4,189.46 crore infrastructure development project for the economic zone will be placed before the Executive Committee of the National Economic Council today (9 June).

The project has been initiated by the Prime Minister's Office, while Beza will serve as the implementing agency.
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According to sources, a delegation from the Export-Import Bank of China (China Exim Bank) is scheduled to meet Beza tomorrow to discuss financing arrangements, infrastructure development and implementation mechanisms.

"We hope to complete the developer agreement with the Chinese company within this month," Beza Executive Chairman Ashik Chowdhury told The Business Standard yesterday.

"Our target is to finalise the agreement before the prime minister visits China," he added.

The Chinese economic zone is being developed on nearly 800 acres in Anwara under a government-to-government initiative between Bangladesh and China. Although the two countries reached an understanding on the project in 2014, progress remained stalled for years due to complications surrounding developer selection, financing arrangements and administrative procedures.

Initially, China Harbour Engineering Company Limited was expected to develop the project, but failure to finalise an agreement led to years of delays. In 2022, the Chinese government nominated China Road and Bridge Corporation as the new developer.

Officials said preparation and approval of the Development Project Proposal also took considerable time. While Beza is responsible for off-site infrastructure such as roads, gas, electricity and water connections, the developer will carry out internal development works. Lack of coordination between the two components slowed implementation.

According to Beza, all required land acquisition has already been completed and infrastructure construction can begin once the developer agreement is signed.

Under the revised development project proposal submitted to Ecnec, the project includes construction of a multipurpose jetty with a capacity of 20,000 deadweight tonnes, a jetty access road and bridge, four-lane roads, a 25-million-litre central effluent treatment plant, power substations and transmission lines, gas supply facilities, water reservoirs, boundary walls and other supporting infrastructure.

Of the total project cost, Tk1,722 crore will come from government funds, while Tk2,467 crore is expected from China's Preferential Buyer's Credit facility.

Explaining the rationale behind the site selection, Beza said the upazila was chosen for the project due to its strong geographical and economic advantages, making it a strategically important location.

The area is situated close to key national infrastructure, including Chittagong Port, Karnaphuli Tunnel, Shah Amanat International Airport, and several industrial hubs in the port city.

Beza estimates the economic zone will generate at least 100,000 direct and indirect jobs and attract around $500 million in foreign investment. The zone is expected to draw investment in textiles, pharmaceuticals, light engineering, information technology and other manufacturing sectors.

Major General (retd) Md Nazrul Islam, executive member (Planning and Development) at Beza, told TBS that the project would be implemented over five years if approved by Ecnec and is scheduled for completion by 31 December 2031.

"Although five years have been allocated for the entire project, we expect to prepare at least 60% of the factory-ready industrial plots within the first three years," he said.

Startups and IT-based businesses may no longer have to pay turnover tax from the next fiscal year, as the government looks to encourage entrepreneurship and innovation.

Around 5 lakh freelancers and individual content creators are also likely to be exempt from the existing 7.5 percent source tax in the 2026-27 national budget.

In addition, the government is considering reducing source tax on mobile network services, such as phone calls, text messages and data packages, from 12 percent to 10 percent.

“A zero turnover tax provision is likely to be applicable for innovative startups, marking one of the most notable fiscal relaxations for the sector in recent years,” said a finance ministry official, seeking anonymity.

A startup is a newly established business, usually small, built around an innovative idea, product or service. Under tax law, annual turnover must be below Tk 100 crore to qualify in this category. Some well-known local startups include Pathao, Shohoz.com and Chaldal.com.

According to industry estimates, Bangladesh now has more than 1,200 active startups, directly and indirectly employing around 15 lakh people. These small businesses currently pay a 0.1 percent turnover tax -- a tax levied on the gross sales of a business regardless of expenses or profitability.

On the other hand, an IT-based business is any company that mainly uses information technology to deliver products or services, ranging from Facebook pages selling goods to mobile financial services such as bKash.

Regarding the budget boost for the telecom sector, finance ministry officials said the government plans to impose 15 percent VAT on SIM cards instead of the existing flat fee of Tk 300.

They said these measures are designed to support the country’s rapidly expanding digital economy at a time of intensifying global competition in the tech sector.

Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury is expected to formally propose the measures while presenting the national budget in parliament on June 11. Officials said the proposals have already received in-principle approval from Prime Minister Tarique Rahman at a high-level meeting last month.

Industry people said removing the turnover tax could help new startups survive the critical early years, when many businesses struggle with cash flow and operational sustainability.

Former BASIS president AKM Fahim Mashroor said the decision would particularly benefit early-stage firms, allowing them to reinvest initial revenues into growth rather than tax payments, and that easing fiscal pressure could improve survival rates among early-stage companies.

Raisul Kabir, founder and chief executive officer of Brain Station 23, one of Bangladesh’s largest software firms, also welcomed the move, saying tax burdens often weigh heavily on businesses in their early stages.

Kabir said simplifying the tax structure would allow entrepreneurs to focus more on building products and scaling operations.

While welcoming the zero turnover tax proposal for startups, Pathao chief executive officer Fahim Ahmed said the eligibility criteria must be designed in a non-restrictive way so that companies generating meaningful revenues can also benefit.

He said previous proposals placed undue restrictions on operational duration and maximum turnover when determining eligibility.

Ahmed also called for a reduction in withholding tax and VAT withholding at source for startups and tech-enabled firms, saying most operate in informal sectors where vendors often do not have a tax or VAT footprint.

“The requirement to withhold taxes and VAT from such vendors results in a cost increase for such startups and ultimately limits scalability or risks passing such cost burden to the customers,” he said.

In the next budget, the government is also considering exempting income from annual turnover of up to Tk 50 lakh for SME entrepreneurs, and up to Tk 70 lakh for women entrepreneurs and entrepreneurs with disabilities.

To promote industrial decentralisation, it may introduce accelerated depreciation benefits for investment in plant, machinery and equipment for manufacturing, tourism and sports facilities outside the Dhaka and Chattogram city corporation areas.

The proposed incentive would allow businesses to claim depreciation at 60 percent in the first year and 40 percent in the second year.

Officials said the measures are aimed at boosting private investment, supporting small businesses and creating jobs across the country.

Japan is looking to increase imports of garment products from Bangladesh, with Japanese companies seeking local business partners to strengthen sourcing under the Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) signed between the two countries.

The interest was expressed at a meeting held yesterday between leaders of the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA) and representatives of Japanese businesses, including officials from the Japanese Commerce and Industry Association in Dhaka (JCIAD), the Japan External Trade Organization (Jetro) Dhaka office, and the Japan-Bangladesh Chamber of Commerce and Industry (JBCCI).

The chairman and chairman-elect of the Apparels and Textiles Committee of JCIAD also attended the meeting to discuss potential sourcing opportunities from Bangladesh.

Both BGMEA and Japanese entrepreneurs are keen to deepen engagement between businesses in the two countries and strengthen partnerships to source more apparel products from Bangladesh, said Kazuiki Kataoka, country representative of Jetro Dhaka, over the phone after the meeting.

This was the first meeting between Japanese apparel entrepreneurs and BGMEA leaders. It is expected to pave the way for expanded business ties between Bangladesh and Japan, particularly through the proposed committee, Kataoka said.

“We would like to collaborate in identifying factories capable of meeting requirements to export to Japan,” the Jetro country representative said.

Suitable manufacturing facilities are needed to supply the right products and expand Bangladesh’s apparel exports to Japan, he said, adding that the country currently exports more than $1.4 billion worth of garment products to Japan annually.

Of Bangladesh’s total exports to Japan, around 80 percent comprise garment products, while the remaining 20 percent consists of other goods, he said.

Entrepreneurs from both countries are eager to see the EPA, signed on February 6 this year, implemented to elevate bilateral trade and investment, Kataoka added.

The membership of JCIAD has been growing steadily, reaching 163, reflecting Japanese businesses’ confidence in expanding operations in Bangladesh, he said.

Meanwhile, the Special Economic Zone (SEZ), dedicated to Japanese entrepreneurs in Araihazar, Narayanganj, has already become operational and is expected to accommodate more Japanese companies in the future. Japanese investors are seeking to expand or relocate operations to Bangladesh under Japan’s China Plus One strategy, adopted in 2008.

JBCCI President Tareq Rafi Bhuiyan Jun said a committee named Market Strategy for Development of Japan Markets has been formed to help expand trade and business relations between the two countries.

Japan could serve as an important market for Bangladesh as the country seeks to offset the slowdown in garment exports in recent months. Bangladesh is also looking to expand exports to Asian markets amid volatility in global supply chains. The newly formed committee and BGMEA discussed preparing a model list of BGMEA-affiliated supplier companies, he said.

Under the EPA, Bangladeshi garment products will continue to enjoy duty-free access to the Japanese market from the date of implementation. At present, Bangladeshi apparel exports benefit from preferential market access under the least developed country (LDC) category, and Japan has already extended these facilities until 2029 following Bangladesh’s graduation from LDC status.

BGMEA President Mahmud Hasan Khan said the association aims to increase garment exports to Japan to $3.0 billion from the current $1.4 billion within the next one to two years, with Asian markets such as Japan, South Korea and Turkey now receiving greater focus as part of export market diversification efforts.

During the first 10 months (July-April) of FY26, the current account recorded a deficit of $1.07 billion, compared with a deficit of $1.64 billion during the same period of the previous fiscal year. As a result, the deficit narrowed by $563 million.

The Bangladesh Bank released the latest balance of payments data today (8 June).

Experts say remittances were the main factor behind the improvement in the current account. Despite the trade deficit widening by more than $4 billion, robust remittance inflows helped offset the impact and reduce the overall deficit.

Economists note that the current account is one of the most important indicators within the balance of payments. An economy generally performs better when the current account is in surplus. However, despite strong remittance growth, the current account remains in deficit because of the country's large trade gap.

Mustafizur Rahman, distinguished fellow at the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), said, "Although the trade deficit has increased, higher remittance inflows have prevented a deterioration in the current account. Remittances have risen by more than $5 billion. Achieving a current account surplus would strengthen the economy."

He added, "Even with robust remittance inflows, we are unable to turn the current account positive. This reflects a structural weakness. The economy needs to improve through stronger current account balances, but we have not been able to reach that stage. The persistent trade deficit is preventing us from breaking out of this trend."

The current account is a key component of a country's balance of payments, covering net trade in goods and services, income from abroad, and current transfers such as remittances.

According to Bangladesh Bank data, remittance inflows during the first 10 months of the current fiscal year increased by 19.5% compared with the same period a year earlier. Expatriate Bangladeshis sent $29.33 billion during July-April of FY2025-26, up from $24.54 billion during the corresponding period of FY2024-25.

Trade deficit widens as exports decline
Bangladesh Bank data show that the trade deficit widened to $22.21 billion during the first 10 months of FY2025-26, compared with $18.23 billion during the same period of the previous fiscal year.

Economists identify weak export performance as the main reason behind the widening trade gap.

Exports during the first 10 months of the current fiscal year totalled $36.02 billion, down from $36.57 billion a year earlier. This represents a decline of about 1.5%.

Meanwhile, imports increased by nearly $4 billion. Imports reached $58.23 billion during the period, compared with $54.80 billion during the same period of the previous fiscal year.

Mustafizur Rahman said, "The trade deficit has widened because imports have increased by nearly $4 billion, while exports have not grown and have instead declined."

He added, "Exports are not increasing at the same pace as imports. The slowdown in export growth is contributing to the widening trade deficit. Imports are likely to increase further in the future, which will add pressure. Unless exports rise, the trade deficit will continue to expand."

He noted that higher imports are generally positive for the broader economy, but stressed that greater efforts are needed to boost exports.

Financial account records surplus
According to Bangladesh Bank data, the financial account posted a surplus of $4.47 billion during the first 10 months of FY2025-26, compared with $1.13 billion during the same period of the previous fiscal year.

Economists said the improvement was mainly driven by a positive trade credit position.

Trade credit stood at a positive $3.57 billion during July-April of the current fiscal year, compared with a deficit of $1.47 billion a year earlier.

Trade credit refers to goods or services received with payment deferred to a later date. In balance of payments accounting, it is treated as a short-term capital flow under the financial account because it finances imports.

Overall balance of payments position improves
During the first 10 months of FY2025-26, the overall balance of payments recorded a surplus of $3.74 billion, compared with a deficit of $655 million during the same period of the previous fiscal year.

The improvement was primarily driven by the stronger performance of the financial account, which helped significantly improve the country's overall balance of payments position.

Zahid Hussain, former lead economist, World Bank Dhaka office said, "We are beginning to see the impact of the global price increases due to the [Iran] war on our trade balance.

"The trade deficit increased as import payments rose significantly, largely due to hefty increase in payments for the import of crude oil, refined oil and fertiliser. Despite strong remittances, the current account deficit almost doubled in April relative to March largely due to increased trade deficit."

Thanks to surplus in the financial account, surplus in the overall balance of payments has increased, he said.

"This is primarily due to increased trade credit which predominantly reflects the growth of import payments. Since trade credit is very short term, the rise we are seeing now cannot be sustained. This means the financial account will face pressure going forward unless other items, especially MLT disbursements pick up," the economist explained.

Overall the BOP shows some resilience to heightened external pressure, thanks largely to remittances, but this cannot be taken for granted, Zahid Hussain added.

Bangladesh on Monday sought Spain’s support at the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) for its smooth graduation from the Least Developed Country (LDC) category.

The appeal was made when Spanish Ambassador to Bangladesh Gabriel María Sistiaga Ochoa de Chinchetru called on State Minister for Foreign Affairs Shama Obaed Islam at the foreign ministry here, said a ministry’s press release.

During the meeting, the state minister highlighted the importance of strengthening bilateral and multilateral cooperation and sought Madrid’s backing for Bangladesh’s post-LDC transition efforts.

Shama also reiterated the need for stronger and sustained international attention and support to resolve the protracted Rohingya crisis.

The Spanish envoy congratulated Bangladesh on its election to the presidency of the 81^st session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) for the term 2026-2027.

Both sides underscored the importance of a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between Bangladesh and the European Union to boost trade and economic cooperation.

The two sides reaffirmed their commitment to advancing the mutually beneficial partnership between Bangladesh and Spain and explored avenues for expanding cooperation in trade, investment, supply chains, railway connectivity, education, skills development, migration, sports, culture and people-to-people exchanges.

They also discussed the possibility of holding bilateral consultations and arranging high-level visits to further strengthen bilateral relations.

The discussions also covered regional and global developments, with both sides emphasizing the importance of peace, stability and enhanced international cooperation.