The National Board of Revenue (NBR) is on course to miss its annual revenue target for the current fiscal year, extending its run of shortfalls to a tenth straight year.

Revenue officials blame the shortfall on a slowing economy, ambitious targets and inefficient collection.

In the first 10 months of fiscal year 2025-26, the tax authority collected Tk 3.27 lakh crore, falling Tk 1.04 lakh crore short of the July-April target, according to provisional revenue data released yesterday.

To avoid another shortfall, the NBR would have to collect Tk 2.27 lakh crore in the remaining two months, a goal officials describe as a “herculean task”.

Economists too say that is unrealistic. Collecting nearly half of the full-year target in the final two months would require an unprecedented surge.

“The NBR is set to miss its target this year,” said Towfiqul Islam Khan, additional director (research) at the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD). “This will significantly constrain the government’s fiscal space.”

Measured against the original annual targets, the situation looks worse. By that yardstick, the NBR has failed to meet its goal for 14 consecutive years.

As revenues fall short, the government is leaning more heavily on borrowing.

In the July-February period of FY26, net deficit financing rose 67 percent year-on-year to Tk 1.05 lakh crore, up from Tk 63,040 crore in the same period last year. Of that, Tk 88,309 crore came from the banking system, according to Bangladesh Bank data.

Despite the shortfall, the government has set a revenue target of Tk 6.95 lakh crore for the next fiscal year, covering both tax and non-tax income. That implies growth of at least 42 percent over the revised FY26 target.

CPD Additional Director Khan called it a “near-impossible revenue challenge”.

“No historical benchmark supports this,” he said, noting that even the most optimistic compound annual growth rate between FY01 and FY19 was 15.6 percent and would still leave a Tk 1.3 lakh crore shortfall.

“For FY27, the budget deficit and the government’s financing capacity are more likely to become the main anchors of public financial management, rather than expenditure ambitions alone,” he added.

He said much of the country’s foreign borrowing is tied to the Annual Development Programme (ADP), leaving limited flexibility in public spending.

“At the margin, the government’s ability to mobilise domestic revenue will determine the extent of total public expenditure in FY27,” he added.

Last month, Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury told parliament that the tax-to-GDP ratio has dropped from about 11 percent to below 7 percent.

The fallout from the US-Israel war on Iran has added pressure to state finances, as the government has been forced to buy fuel at elevated prices. Bangladesh imports about 95 percent of its energy, and state agencies have increasingly turned to the volatile spot market.

“The mounting costs are bleeding the exchequer,” the minister said on the sidelines of the IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington last month, citing nearly $2 billion in additional energy import costs following supply disruptions.

“On top of that, the tax-to-GDP (ratio) is not increasing because of business stress; the businesses are in bad shape,” he said, adding that if businesses do not recover, tax receipts will not improve.

He said the government has sought budget support from development partners and is pursuing structural reforms. It has prepared an action plan aimed at building a trillion-dollar economy by 2034, centred on investment, jobs and macroeconomic stability.

INCOME TAX GROWTH OUTPACES VAT

In the July-April period, income tax recorded the strongest growth among major revenue heads. Collections rose 11.59 percent year-on-year to Tk 1.09 lakh crore, accounting for 33.5 percent of the total.

Value-added tax (VAT) remained the largest single source of revenue, contributing 38 percent of the total. Receipts increased 11 percent to Tk 1.26 lakh crore.

Revenue from import duties and supplementary taxes grew more slowly, rising 8.87 percent to Tk 90,762 crore.

In April alone, VAT collection contracted by 3.17 percent year-on-year. Facing mounting pressure, the NBR is considering structural changes for the next fiscal year.

A senior revenue official said yesterday that the board is proposing several fiscal measures in the upcoming budget to expand the tax base.

It is also weighing steps to strengthen collection, including reintroducing a wealth tax, raising rates for the ultra-rich and rationalising existing exemptions.

“We will also strengthen enforcement to curb tax evasion and gradually reduce existing tax exemptions, aiming to raise revenue collections,” he said.

The NBR also plans to raise the top marginal income tax rate for ultra-rich individuals from 30 percent to 35 percent, with the measure tentatively scheduled for FY28.

Fewer than 3 percent of manufacturing units in Bangladesh use computers or information technology (IT) in their production work, according to the latest Economic Census 2024.

The census shows that only 2.44 percent of 11.19 lakh manufacturing units in the country use computers or IT in the production processes.

Use varies by type of establishment. Among permanent units, 4.74 percent use computers in production. The rate falls to 1.36 percent for temporary units and just 0.80 percent for economic households.

There are also wide regional differences. Dhaka division records the highest rate of ICT use in production at 5.65 percent, while Barishal division has the lowest at 1.14 percent.

According to sector-wise data, 9.06 percent of establishments in electricity, gas, steam and air-conditioning supply use computers in production. In construction, the rate is the lowest at 0.92 percent.

Across industrial units as a whole, the rate stands at 2.41 percent.

There are also wide regional differences. Dhaka division records the highest rate of ICT use in production at 5.65 percent, while Barishal division has the lowest at 1.14 percent.
Location also matters for computer use by businesses. In urban areas, 4.03 percent of businesses use computers in production, while the rate drops to 1.60 percent in rural areas.

The figures come after years of Digital Bangladesh campaigns by the previous Awami League government. Yet technology use in productive work remains limited, especially outside large cities.

The contrast is stark because manufacturing contributes about 21.9 percent to GDP. Even so, most factories and business units still depend on manual processes.

A 2021 World Bank study found that more than 40 percent of firms in Bangladesh still use handwritten records for business administration. Nearly three-quarters carry out quality checks by hand. The report said that the country risks losing competitiveness unless firms adopt better technology and raise productivity.

Over the past decade, internet access has expanded quickly in the country. Bangladesh now has more than 130 million internet subscribers.

In fiscal year 2024-25, 53.4 percent of the population was online, according to the latest survey by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS). That still leaves nearly half the population without internet access.

Experts say wider connectivity has not led to greater use of technology inside factories, workshops and small businesses. According to them, access to the internet alone does not improve productivity.

Other countries in the region have moved faster. Vietnam and India have introduced more automation, software systems and digital supply tools in manufacturing. This has helped them attract higher-value investment.

Fahim Mashroor, founder and CEO of BDjobs.com and former president of Bangladesh Association of Software and Information Services (Basis), said Bangladesh should now focus less on expanding access and more on using technology effectively in production, logistics and business management.

Greater use of software and digital systems could reduce productivity losses across industries, he said.

“We have a large number of SMEs in the country, but technology adoption remains concentrated among bigger firms,” he said. “The more businesses become mechanised, computerised and automated, the more productivity will improve.”

He said wider use of ICT is essential if Bangladesh is to remain competitive in global markets.

“Without wider adoption of digital tools in businesses, particularly among small and rural enterprises, Bangladesh may struggle to improve productivity,” he added.

The government is likely to reintroduce a provision allowing the legalisation of undisclosed income through investment in selected sectors in the national budget for the next fiscal year.

The proposed amnesty scheme will include disclosure conditions, a finance ministry official said yesterday.

Speaking on condition of anonymity, the official said taxpayers may be allowed to regularise undisclosed funds by investing in designated sectors, provided they declare the actual transaction value in income tax returns filed by both buyers and sellers.

“Taxpayers can legalise their income by paying their regular rate in any assessment year in certain sectors, without any concessional treatment,” said the finance ministry official.

The Awami League government previously allowed taxpayers to legalise undisclosed assets by paying a flat 15 percent tax rate. Under that arrangement, individuals could declare previously undisclosed money in any assessment year by paying the specified rate, after which no government agency would question the source of the income.

But the proposed provision this time will introduce changes to that approach, said the official.

According to him, taxpayers will not be offered a single flat rate for regularising undisclosed income. Instead, in cases involving such undeclared gains, both buyers and sellers will be required to adjust their declared income and reflect the actual transaction values in their tax returns.

He added that structural inefficiencies in parts of the economy often lead to portions of income or capital gains remaining undeclared, and the government wants to provide an opportunity to adjust such income to encourage productive investment.

He also said the prime minister has, in principle, approved the proposal on May 14, with the expectation that it could help accelerate investment flows.

The official argued that the measure is intended to broaden the tax base and formalise informal capital, rather than offer a blanket waiver or reduced tax rate, as seen in previous amnesty schemes.

The move comes amid ongoing debate in policy circles over how to address large volumes of undisclosed income generated through property transactions, especially in land, flats and commercial real estate, where significant gaps often exist between market prices and declared deed values.

However, the proposal has already drawn criticism from economists and tax experts, who say repeated regularisation windows risk weakening compliance and discouraging honest taxpayers.

National Board of Revenue (NBR) Chairman Md Abdur Rahman Khan recently reiterated that the tax administration is moving away from concessional whitening schemes that allowed undeclared income to be legalised at reduced rates.

“We want to say that anyone can disclose undisclosed income in their tax records by paying taxes according to the existing rates. In fact, we would welcome that,” he said during a pre-budget discussion.

Criticising past practices, he added that successive amnesty schemes over the past five decades had “ultimately backfired”, as they discouraged compliant taxpayers and distorted tax culture.

“We want to move away from this culture,” he said, adding that individuals who evaded taxes in the past should not be incentivised with lower rates.

“At the very least, you must pay the regular tax,” he said.

A candid admission comes from the finance minister that many well-established companies are facing acute capital shortages, in a crunch he attributes to lack of "fair competition" and governance gaps.
FE

"Many big companies and banks are in serious capital shortage," Finance and Planning Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury said Wednesday while speaking as chief guest at the inaugural session of the first-ever Financial Accounting and Reporting (FAR) Summit held at a city hotel.

The summit was jointly organised by the Financial Reporting Council (FRC), the Institute of Chartered Accountants of Bangladesh (ICAB) and the Institute of Cost and Management Accountants of Bangladesh (ICMAB).

Turning to the predicament of banking sector, the finance minister said the current financial strain reflected deeper structural weaknesses, including distorted lending practices within banks.Bangladesh economic report

"Depositors keep money in banks, and loan approvals were often influenced by board-level decisions," he points out, adding that auditors should adopt stronger "self-regulation" to ensure transparency.

He stresses full transparency and accountability for restoring investor confidence and achieving long-term economic stability in the country.

"Bangladesh is now at a crossroads and all depend on the institutions," the finance minister implicitly reminds about the transition following political upheavals.

Mr. Chowdhury notes that the Financial Reporting Council would continue to exist but should focus on supervision and monitoring rather than direct enforcement alone.

"Every day, fund managers are contacting us-from Hong Kong, London, even JPMorgan. But if foreign investors see that our accounting is not up to international standards, they will be discouraged," he told the meet.

The minister also recalls delegating authority for issuing export-utilisation certificates to Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA) during his tenure as commerce minister in a previous BNP government, and says the move had improved governance after earlier allegations of corruption at the Export Promotion Bureau.Financial literacy course

He strongly feels that Bangladesh needs a financial system built on institutional integrity.

"The current government wants a system of complete transparency and accountability."

The new custodian of exchequer alerts that Bangladesh's economic future depends on institutions such as FRC, ICAB and ICMAB. "No regulator can identify every mistake daily. Accountants and professional bodies must take the lead in self-regulation."

Mentioning that institutions have weakened over time due to past "governance failures", the minister alleges that financial irregularities and bank fund diversions were often linked to misleading accounts.

"Many companies listed on the capital market used false information. Investors were misled," he deplores.

Prime Minister's Finance and Planning Adviser Prof Rashed Al Mahmud Titumir, speaking as special guest, said weak auditing practices had contributed to financial-sector instability.

"In many cases, audit firms have become their own judges," he said through online platform, adding that regulatory gaps had deepened banking-sector vulnerabilities.Economic trend analysis

He says investors had suffered significant losses due to misleading financial statements, while banks had extended large loans based on inaccurate reports that later turned into defaults.

BGMEA President Mahmud Hasan Khan told the meet that out of 7,200 registered member-organisations only around 2,500 were now active, largely due to poor accounting practices.

"Inflated accounts can destroy organisations," he notes, adding that discrepancies between assets and liabilities were a common concern in the sector.

He also warns that lack of transparent accounting discouraged foreign buyers and reduced competitiveness in export markets. Chairman of FRC Md Sajjad Hossain Bhuiyan presented the keynote paper, titled 'Reliable Financial Reporting: Where Does It Really Matter?'

Finance Secretary Dr Khairuzzaman Mozumder chaired the inaugural session. ICAB acting president Rokunuzzaman and ICMAB president Kauser Alam also spoke at the event.

The summit featured two technical sessions attended by CFOs, auditors and policymakers from leading institutions.

Major banking scandals, market manipulation, and financial misreporting have created severe capital shortages in banks and the private sector, Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury said yesterday.

Addressing the “Financial Accounting and Reporting (FAR) Summit 2026” as chief guest at the Pan Pacific Sonargaon Dhaka, he said financial discipline in the banking and capital market sectors has not been restored despite repeated scandals.

He alleged several companies entered the stock market using false representations, which has discouraged strong firms from getting listed and weakened fair competition and price discovery.

Khosru, also the planning minister, said economic management institutions in Bangladesh have become increasingly ineffective, with accountability and monitoring systems failing to function properly.

He noted that regulatory bodies, including the Financial Reporting Council (FRC), play a vital role in ensuring transparency in corporate reporting, but said the overall governance ecosystem has weakened since the council’s establishment in 2015.

He warned against a culture of shareholders treating banks as personal property, despite banks operating mainly with depositors’ funds.

He stressed the need for a transparent and accountable financial system where regulators, institutions, and professional bodies properly discharge their responsibilities.

Referring to the self-regulation model of the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA) in issuing exporters’ utilisation certificates, he said similar accountability mechanisms are needed in accounting, auditing, and financial reporting.

The minister said Bangladesh is attracting strong interest from international investors and global fund managers, particularly in bonds and other instruments.

However, he said such investment depends on confidence in the country’s financial reporting, auditing, and governance systems.

He urged regulators and stakeholders to work together to establish global-standard practices and restore investor trust.

Virtually addressing the event, Rashed Al Mahmud Titumir, finance and planning adviser to the prime minister, said past failures in auditing and financial oversight were driven by weak standards, lack of accountability, and conflicts of interest, where audit firms effectively acted as their own regulators.

He said unreliable financial reporting, manipulated valuations, and weak regulation had pushed the banking and capital market sectors into crisis, resulting in loan defaults, instability, and repeated scams.

He added that thousands of small investors lost money due to misleading financial statements of listed companies, while honest entrepreneurs were disadvantaged as dishonest firms attracted investment by showing inflated profits.

He called for stronger regulation, greater independence and authority for the FRC, stricter punishment for fraudulent reporting, and adoption of international standards to restore investor confidence and strengthen economic governance.

Mahmud Hasan Khan Babu, president of BGMEA, said audit reports often failed to reflect the true condition of banks despite serious sectoral weaknesses.

He said asset quality reviews later exposed multiple irregularities, highlighting major gaps in financial reporting accuracy.

He added that poor reporting led to loans being granted to unqualified borrowers, while viable businesses struggled to obtain financing.

He also noted inconsistencies where companies showed strong financial positions to banks but reported losses to tax authorities, creating challenges in tax compliance and loan recovery.

Md Sajjad Hossain Bhuiyan, chairman of the FRC, presented the keynote paper at the event. The inaugural session was chaired by Md Khairuzzaman Mozumder, secretary of the finance division.

The summit was jointly organised by the FRC, the Institute of Chartered Accountants of Bangladesh, and the Institute of Cost and Management Accountants of Bangladesh.

Exporters may need to add more value – at least by 50% – to products as the government drafts a new policy with a stronger push for reduced reliance on imported inputs and the development of backward linkage industries.

One of the biggest changes proposed in the draft Import Policy Order 2026-2029, seen by TBS, is a sharp increase in the minimum value-addition requirement for garment exports made from imported raw materials.

Officials say if an exporter fails to meet the requirement, it will not receive any cash incentive and the duty benefits on raw material imports.

For children's garments, the minimum value addition requirement may double from 15% to 30%. For all knit and woven garments made from cotton and man-made fibres, the threshold could rise from the existing 20% to 30%.

A stakeholder meeting is scheduled for today, where Commerce Minister Khandakar Abdul Muktadir is expected to discuss the draft policy with industry representatives ahead of finalisation.

If approved and implemented, the comprehensive new trade directive will remain effective until 31 December 2029.

Higher value addition requirements

Under the current import policy, there is no minimum value-addition requirement for the export of goods, except for knitwear, woven garments, and children's clothing.

However, under the draft policy, stricter value addition thresholds have also been proposed for several other export sectors. Underwear and other synthetic fibre-based specialised garments may be required to meet at least 40% value addition.

Footwear, including leather and non-leather products, may be subject to a 30% requirement. Ship exports could be subject to a 40% threshold, while wooden furniture exports may be required to achieve 50% value addition.

The draft policy also proposes a ban on importing knitted fabrics, a move that has drawn criticism from industry leaders who argue that domestic production is insufficient to meet export demand.

Exporters warn against higher thresholds and fabric bans

Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association President Mahmud Hasan Khan told TBS while a 30% value addition is achievable for the knitwear sector, it remains entirely unrealistic for the woven garment segment under present market conditions.

Echoing these concerns, Bangladesh Knitwear Manufacturers and Exporters Association President Mohammad Hatem said while the government's targeted thresholds might be feasible in isolated cases, the prevailing international market dynamics make them impossible to implement across the board.

Apparel leaders heavily criticised the clause in the draft policy that seeks to enforce a blanket ban on the import of knit fabrics.

The BGMEA president argued that Bangladesh must maintain open channels to import specialised knit fabrics that are not locally manufactured, warning that failing to do so would severely cripple export competitiveness.

Adding to this, Hatem explained that halting knit fabric imports would require massive immediate investments in the domestic dyeing sector alongside guaranteed gas supplies.

The BKMEA president warned that banning fabric imports would derail crucial product diversification into high-value knitwear when "the government is currently unable to ensure consistent gas distribution and the broader economic climate is unsuited for heavy capital expenditure."

Preventing money laundering

Md Hafizur Rahman, former director general of the WTO Cell under the commerce ministry, told this newspaper that the value addition rate might be increased to prevent exporters from repatriating lower export proceeds as a means of money laundering, despite exporting at higher prices. "At the same time, encouraging exporters to use local materials could also be an objective."

However, he noted that since Bangladesh's primary goal is job creation, raising the minimum threshold for value addition is not logical. "This could hamper exports from smaller factories, which would ultimately shrink employment opportunities."

Hafizur added, "Vietnam does not have such stringent value addition requirements. Many small factories in that country import from China, add a minimal amount of value, and then export."

Changes in import entitlement rules

While the import of used vehicles, motor cars, passenger cars, and trucks older than five years remains prohibited as before, the draft import policy proposes to allow the import of electric vehicles that are up to 10 years old.

The policy also proposes changes to export-linked import entitlements under free-of-cost arrangements. The existing entitlement of up to 50% of the previous year's export value for garments, woven and children's clothing would remain unchanged. However, for man-made fibre products and synthetic underwear, the limit may be increased from 50% to 70%.

For footwear and leather goods, the proposed import entitlement is 60% of the previous year's export value. Ship imports would be allowed up to 60% of the export letter of credit value. Furniture-related import limits have been proposed at 40% for wooden furniture, 20% for fabric-based furniture and 10% for parts and accessories.

Trade facilitation and sector-specific reforms

The draft order removed the existing $5,00,000 ceiling on imports under sales or purchase contracts without opening letters of credit, expanding flexibility for businesses.

It also proposes eliminating fixed time limits for shipment after opening letters of credit, which currently stand at 24 months for machinery and nine months for other goods.

The threshold for personal imports by non-registered importers has been proposed to be doubled from $10,000 to $20,000.

For expatriate Bangladeshis, the duty-free limit for sending goods to family members has been proposed to be raised from Tk10,000 to $1,000.

Export-oriented garment manufacturers may also see an increase in the annual import quota for samples, rising from 1,500 to 3,000 items per category. Similar increases have been proposed for the footwear and leather industries, while tanneries may see their sample import limit rise from 300 to 3,000 pieces.

Policy alignment and geopolitical provisions

Although the draft did not explicitly refer to the United States trade agreement, it allowed reduced tariff imports under certificates of origin linked to preferential and free trade agreements with various countries and regions.

The draft introduced a direct prohibition on imports from Israel, stating that no goods produced in or originating from Israel, nor cargo carried on Israeli-flagged vessels, will be eligible for import.

The government announced Tk 20 crore in incentives for cotton farmers for the 2026–27 financial year, aiming to boost local cotton production and support marginal farmers across the country, said the Cotton Development Board officials.

The CDB officials said that about 25,000 farmers of 26 districts would receive seeds, fertilisers and pesticides for cultivating cotton as an intercrop on one bigha of land.

Md Rezaul Amin, executive director of the CDB, told New Age that under the program, each farmer would receive agricultural inputs worth Tk 8,000, including seeds, fertilizers, and pesticides.

‘The inputs would include 600 grams of hybrid cotton seed, 50 kilograms each of triple super phosphate and Muriate of Potash two kilograms of boron fertiliser, 450 millilitres of fungicide and 150 millilitres of growth regulator,’ he added.

According to the CDB, cotton cultivation has become highly profitable for farmers, as the production cost of cultivating cotton on one bigha of land is around Tk 15,000, while a farmer can earn nearly Tk 60,000 by producing 15 maunds of raw cotton.

Moreover, local cotton production would also help save foreign currency as every kilogram of domestically produced cotton reduces government import costs by around $4 per kilogram.

As the world’s second-largest exporter of readymade garments, Bangladesh imported 8.1 million bales of cotton from its global sources 2025, making it the highest importer of cotton, said the United States Department of Agriculture.

Due to weaker global demand, cotton imports might slightly decline in the 2025-26 marketing year, to 7.8 million bales.
The USDA, however, projected that imports might reach 8 million bales in MY2026-27 in its recently published report.

Meanwhile, despite being a big player in the RMG export, the domestic production of cotton remained negligible, about 153,000 bales of cotton produced on 45,000 hectares of land, which accounted for less than 2 per cent of its total consumption.

CDB executive director Rezaul Amin said the government incentives would encourage more farmers to grow cotton, which could help reduce dependence on cotton imports.

He also said that the increase in cotton production through government incentives might discourage farmers from cultivating tobacco, one of the most harmful crops.

Earlier, on May 15 of 2025, the Ministry of Agriculture issued a notification announcing raw cotton as an agricultural product.

The decision came following a meeting of the council of advisers of the then-interim government on May 6 of the same year, which approved a proposal to recognize raw cotton as an agricultural product.

Due to the recognisition, it would be easy to get agricultural loans, which could encourage cotton production in the country, would be an advantage for the country.

According to the CDB, the incentive beneficiaries would include 6,200 farmers in Kushtia zone, 5,500 in Chuadanga zone, 3,200 in Jenaidah zone, 3,000 in Jeshore zone, 2,000 in Rajshahi zone, 1,200 in Bogura zone, 1,200 in Mymensingh zone, 680 in Rangpur zone, 500 in Thakurgaon zone, and 380 farmers each in Dhaka, Bandarban, Rangamati, and Khagrachari zones.

The Ministry of Agriculture would release the funds to the deputy commissioners of the respective districts. The Department of Agriculture, CDB officials, and the upazila administration would monitor the incentives,’ said Rezaul Amin.

M Gazi Golam Mortuza, an expert at the CDB, told a news agency that the incentive is being provided for the third consecutive time to increase cotton production and provide financial support to poor and marginal farmers.

Earlier, the government allocated Tk 9.90 crore for 12,375 farmers in 2023-24 and Tk 16.88 crore for 21,100 farmers in 2025-26 under similar incentive schemes.

According to the CDB, cotton sowing usually begins in mid-June and harvesting continues until December.

Cotton cultivation also contributes positively to soil health, as the repeated cultivation of the same crops on the same land might degrade soil fertility, whereas cotton cultivation could help improve soil conditions, said the CDB official.

CDB said the introduction of genetically modified cotton varieties has also played a significant role in increasing yields and reducing import dependency.

Oil prices lost about 1 percent on Wednesday after US President Donald Trump again ‌asserted that the Iran warwill end “very quickly”, though investors remain wary about the outcome of peace talks as disruption to Middle Eastern supply continues.

Brent crude futures fell $1.52, or 1.4 percent, to $109.76 a barrel by 0831 GMT and US West Texas Intermediate futures ​were down $1.36, or 1.3 percent, at $102.79.

“Prices are likely to still exhibit some upside potential even if ​a deal is concluded, given that supply will likely not return to pre-war levels ⁠immediately,” said LSEG research analyst Emril Jamil.

Similarly, PVM analysts said global oil stocks could reach critically low ​levels. “Yet, as observed lately, market players are comparatively nonchalant (or complacent) about what the conflict might bring,” PVM said.

The premium on ‌Brent ⁠contracts for delivery next month over contracts for delivery in six months - an indicator of traders’ views of current supply tightness - is around $21 a barrel, way below last month’s highs above $35.

Two supertankers left the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday while another makes its way out after waiting for more than two months with 6 ​million barrels of Middle ​Eastern crude oil on ⁠board. The number of vessels crossing the strait remains well below the 130 or so ships that crossed daily before the war.

To make up the supply ​shortfall, countries are relying on commercial and strategic inventories.

In the US, crude oil ​inventories fell for a ⁠fifth straight week last week, according to market sources citing American Petroleum Institute data. Fuel stocks also fell.

US crude stockpiles reported by the Energy Information Administration are expected to have fallen by about 3.4 million barrels, ⁠a Reuters ​poll showed. The weekly EIA data is due at 1430 ​GMT.

In another sign of the increasing supply crunch, Britain has watered down sanctions to allow imports of diesel and jet fuel refined abroad ​from Russian crude.

Responding to Middle East crises and rising oil prices, the United Nations on Tuesday lowered its forecast for global economic growth and raised the prospects for inflation this year.

UN economists said global GDP growth is now forecast at 2.5% for 2026, down from 2.7% in January, and they said it could fall to only 2.1% "in a more adverse scenario.

That would be one of the weakest growth rates this century, outside of the COVID-19 pandemic and the global financial crisis of 2008, Shantanu Mukherjee, director of economic analysis in the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, said at a news conference.

On a somewhat positive note, he said, "we are not close" to a recession, but life can get harder for billions of people, and some countries may see their economies contract.

Global inflation is projected to rise to 3.9% this year, 0.8% higher than forecast in January, before the US and Israel launched airstrikes on Iran. Iran responded by blocking the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for shipments of oil, natural gas, fertiliser, and other petroleum products.

"Increased energy prices are a potent factor, as are the prices of refinery products that are crucial to industrial production and commercial transport," Mukherjee said.

But he stressed that not all countries will experience the same rate of inflation.

In richer developed countries, inflation is projected to rise from 2.6% in 2025 to 2.9% in 2026. In developing countries, inflation is forecast to accelerate from 4.2% to 5.2% as higher costs for energy, transportation and imported goods erode real incomes.

The impact of the Iran war has been highly uneven, with the most severe economic damage concentrated in West Asia, a region comprised of 21 Arab countries, including those in the Persian Gulf, according to the World Economic Situation and Prospects report for mid-2026.

Economic growth in the region is projected to plunge from 3.6% in 2025 to 1.4% in 2026, "driven not only by the energy shock but also by direct infrastructure damage and severe disruptions to oil production, trade and tourism."

In Africa, average growth is projected to drop only slightly, from 4.2% last year to 3.9% this year, according to the report. And in Latin America and the Caribbean, it is forecast to slow from 2.5% to 2.3% in 2026.

In the United States, the economy is expected to remain "comparatively resilient" with 2% growth forecast this year, broadly similar to 2025, it said.

By contract, Europe "is more exposed, with heavy reliance on imported energy straining households and businesses," the economists said. Economic growth in the European Union is expected to slow from 1.5% in 2025 to 1.1% in 2026, while growth in the United Kingdom is forecast to drop further, from 1.4% last year to 0.7% this year.

In Asia, the UN said China's diversified energy mix, sizable strategic reserves and government actions are providing a buffer, so its economic growth is only expected to slow from 5% in 2025 to 4.6% this year.

India is forecast to remain one of the fastest-growing major economics, with its economy expanding by 6.4% this year, although that is lower than its 7.5% growth in 2025.

"The question for China, similar to the case of India and other countries, is just how long with this conflict and the impact of the conflict last, because all these different buffers are clearly limited," senior U.N. economist Ingo Pitterle told reporters.

A series of brutal killings in recent weeks has renewed concerns over public safety across the country, raising questions about the effectiveness of policing, crime prevention efforts, and the overall law-and-order situation.

From gang-style and politically linked killings in Dhaka and Chattogram to murders allegedly committed by family members and acquaintances in different parts of the country, the incidents have deepened public anxiety.

Criminologists say the persistence of violent crimes is eroding people’s sense of safety, as incidents of murder, sexual violence, torture, and mob brutality continue.

They advised law enforcers to take a tougher stance against such crimes while stressing the need to strengthen community policing.

In the first four months of the year, at least 1,142 murder cases were filed across the country, up from 1,017 during the same period in 2025 and 1,006 in 2024.

According to Police Headquarters data, the highest number of cases this year was recorded in areas under the Dhaka Range, with 265 cases, followed by 225 in the Chattogram Range and 78 in the Dhaka Metropolitan area.

The data further show that murders rose to 317 in March from 250 in February and 287 in January, before dipping slightly to 288 in April this year.

Rights organisation Ain o Salish Kendra’s data show that at least 115 children were killed in the first four months of the year. Among them, 12 were killed after alleged rape or attempted rape, 59 were killed following torture, while the bodies of 20 missing children were recovered.

In one of the most horrific recent incidents, eight-year-old Ramisa Akter, a second-grade student, was found beheaded in her neighbour’s home in Dhaka’s Pallabi on Tuesday. Police said preliminary investigations suggest the child was raped by her neighbour, Sohel Rana, before being murdered.

The gruesome incident has left the victim’s family devastated and sparked widespread outrage and anxiety.

Saika Sayeed, a schoolteacher and resident of Pallabi, said, “People are being murdered almost regularly. Even children are not being spared. One after another, incidents are taking place. It’s very frightening, and we don’t feel safe.

“Also concerning is that the culprits are sometimes arrested, but they get bail and commit crimes again.”

MAJOR INCIDENTS

Several incidents in April and May were marked by extreme brutality, fuelling concerns over rising violence and public safety.

At least 15 major killings reported during the period included family-related murders, mob attacks, gang violence, revenge killings, and assaults linked to personal disputes and criminal networks.

On Tuesday, Ramisa was allegedly killed by her neighbour in Dhaka’s Pallabi, while a man was hacked to death by local youths for protesting against drug abuse in Narayanganj.

Family-related violence also drew attention. On May 18, police recovered the bodies of a couple and their infant child in Madaripur, suspecting a murder-suicide. Earlier, on May 9, five members of a family, including three children, were brutally killed in Kapasia over a family dispute.

On May 17, the dismembered body of Saudi expatriate Mokarram Miah was recovered from Dhaka’s Manda area. Police arrested two women in connection with the murder.

Several incidents were linked to organised crime and revenge attacks. On May 7, Hasan Raju was shot dead in Chattogram’s Rowfabad -- which police described as a revenge killing -- while 11-year-old bystander Reshmi Akhter later died after being hit by bullets during the attack on Raju.

In Dhaka, listed criminal Khandoker Noyeem Ahmed Titon was shot dead near New Market on April 26, while suspected gang leader Alex Imon was hacked to death in Rayerbazar earlier that month.

Mob violence also remained a major concern.

According to the Human Rights Support Society, at least 71 people were killed in 132 mob-related incidents in the first four months of 2026. In April alone, 44 mob attacks left 22 people dead and 39 others injured.

In Kushtia, a pir was beaten and hacked to death on April 11 over allegations of hurting religious sentiments.

WEAK POLICING, SOCIAL DECAY FUELLING RISE

Political instability, economic inequality, and social degradation are driving a surge in brutal killings and violent crimes, said Omar Faruk.

“Following the events of August 5, the country’s social and political situation became fragile, while weaknesses in policing, lack of preventive measures, and poor coordination among law enforcement agencies created opportunities for criminals.

“Our system largely responds to crimes after they occur rather than focusing on prevention. If preventive measures, community awareness, and stronger social initiatives were prioritised, both crime and the fear of becoming victims could be reduced.”

Faruk said criminals now perceive the current situation as favourable due to what they see as weakened police preventive capacity, leading to an increase in murders, rape, and other violent crimes in recent months.

Many murders are being committed by acquaintances, including family members and neighbours, due to deteriorating social relationships, he said, adding that economic inequality, financial disputes, family conflicts, and social decay remain major drivers of violent crime.

“Law enforcement alone will not solve the problem,” Faruk said, calling for preventive social measures and stronger community involvement to stop the situation from worsening.

Contacted by The Daily Star, Khondaker Rafiqul Islam, additional inspector general (Crime and Operations) at the PHQ, said incidents of brutal crime appear to be increasing as people have become increasingly impatient and less tolerant, making such offences difficult to predict in advance.

“Unlike organised violence or unrest, personal enmities and individual motives behind these incidents are often hard to detect beforehand,” he said, adding that police have, however, been able to identify the causes behind each incident and collect evidence against those involved.

Referring to recent killings linked to juvenile gangs, political groups, and underworld networks, Rafiqul said law enforcers are continuing special drives and surveillance operations to prevent such crimes.

“No murder is desirable, and we always try to prevent such incidents. But if any crime occurs, our immediate priority is detection and bringing the perpetrators to justice.”

He added that police have instructed officers in areas witnessing higher levels of violent crime to intensify monitoring of listed criminals and other suspects as part of routine crime prevention efforts.

Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto said on Wednesday that his government will centralise exports of key commodities as part of efforts to boost state revenues and tighten the country's grip over its abundant natural resources.

Prabowo said in a fiery speech to parliament that Indonesia had lost as much as $908 billion in revenues in the last 34 years because its commodities were being sold on the cheap, adding that key exports like palm oil and coal would in future be sold via a central government-run enterprise.

Indonesia, a global commodities powerhouse, is the world's largest exporter of thermal coal and palm oil.

"Today the Indonesian government that I lead will issue a regulation on management of commodity exports," Prabowo said.

"The issuance of this regulation is a strategic step to strengthen management of commodity exports," he said.

"All sales of our resources, from palm oil, coal must be through a SOE selected by the government...as sole exporters," he added.

Prabowo's remarks confirm earlier accounts from two sources familiar with the matter, who said Indonesia was planning the move as part of a drive to strengthen government oversight over its natural resources.

Rumours about the plan have spooked the market on concerns that it could lead to changes in pricing mechanisms and squeeze trader margins, with Jakarta's main stock index shedding 3.5% on Tuesday and close to 2% on Wednesday.

The move by Prabowo, who has vowed to optimise revenue from the country's natural resources, is aimed at addressing concerns about under-invoicing and transfer pricing by exporters, the sources said. The sources declined to be named because they were not authorised to speak publicly.

Prabowo said Indonesia's natural resources were sufficient to deliver welfare to the entire country if they were managed according to the constitution.

"In the opinion of the government - and I am sure every patriot will support this - the earth, water and all the resources within it must be enjoyed by all Indonesians," he said.

Despite being rich in resources as well as a G20 country, Indonesia had not managed the economy well enough to boost state revenues, he added.

The regulations required to bring the plan into action had not yet been finalised, one of the sources said earlier.

Bangladesh is considering raising the top income tax rate to 35% for its highest earners in the upcoming national budget, a move aimed at narrowing the country's widening wealth gap, according to sources at the National Board of Revenue (NBR).

Taxpayers earning more than Tk1.5 crore annually – over Tk12.5 lakh per month – would fall under the proposed higher slab, up from the current 30% ceiling applied to income above Tk35.75 lakh a year.

If approved, the revised rate is expected to take effect from FY2028-29 and remain in force for three years. The finance minister is likely to table the proposal in June.

"The objective is to impose higher taxes on the super-rich to reduce income inequality between the rich and the poor," a senior NBR official said on condition of anonymity.

NBR officials estimate that more than 30,000 taxpayers fall within this bracket, with the measure projected to generate an additional Tk4,000 crore annually. NBR Chairman Abdur Rahman Khan had first indicated the plan in March during budget discussions.

The proposal has drawn mixed reactions. Transparency International Bangladesh (TIB) Executive Director Iftekharuzzaman called the move broadly positive in principle, saying higher earners should contribute more, but warned that rate hikes alone would not significantly improve revenue unless tax evasion is addressed.

Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) Additional Research Director Towfiqul Islam Khan also cautioned against repeatedly increasing pressure on compliant taxpayers, arguing that structural weaknesses in tax administration remain unresolved and that expanding the tax base should be the priority.

Taking a stronger view, tax expert and SMAC Advisory Services Managing Director Snehasish Barua called the proposal a "fiscal misstep," arguing that it penalises honest taxpayers while ignoring the large shadow economy.

He noted that nearly two-thirds of 12.8 million e-TIN holders do not file returns, leaving the tax net "dangerously narrow." He warned that higher marginal rates, combined with wealth taxation, could raise effective burdens further, risking capital flight and discouraging domestic investment and employment generation.

Instead, he urged greater reliance on digital tracking systems to formalise the economy and incentivise transparency rather than overburdening a small compliant base.

Union Capital Limited, a non-bank financial institution, has recommended no dividend for the financial year ended 31 December 2025, as the company continues to grapple with mounting losses and a deeply negative net asset value.

According to a price-sensitive disclosure filed with the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) today (20 May), the company posted a consolidated net loss after tax of approximately Tk42.50 crore for the year.

Following the announcement, its share price slipped 2.08% to Tk4.70 on the premier bourse.

The company's consolidated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 stood at negative Tk2.46 — an improvement from the negative Tk11.99 recorded in 2024.

Management attributed the narrower loss primarily to reduced provision requirements for loans and advances, higher recoveries from written-off clients, and lower operating expenses through cost control measures.

Despite the improvement in EPS, the consolidated net asset value (NAV) per share deteriorated further to negative Tk65.49, from negative Tk63.02 a year earlier.

The overall loss was largely driven by a decline in net interest income, investment income, and fee and commission earnings.

In the first quarter of 2026 (January–March), Union Capital reported a consolidated net loss after tax of Tk16.31 crore. Quarterly consolidated EPS fell sharply to negative Tk0.95, from negative Tk0.07 in the same period last year. The company said the decline was driven by lower interest income and reduced provision releases stemming from weaker recoveries against non-performing loans.

As of 31 March 2026, the consolidated NAV per share stood at negative Tk66.43, while net operating cash flow per share remained negative at Tk0.61.

The company has scheduled its Annual General Meeting for 29 July 2026, with the record date for entitlement set for 22 June, when shareholders will review the annual performance alongside other agenda items.

Britain’s annual inflation rate fell more than expected in April, largely due to a drop in energy prices in the months before the Middle East war, official data showed Wednesday.

Analysts said they expected the rate to shoot back up in the coming months after the US-Iran conflict sent oil and gas prices soaring.

The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 2.8 percent in the 12 months to April, down from 3.3 percent in March, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said in a statement.

Analysts’ consensus forecast had been for a slowdown to 3.0 percent in April.

“There was a notable fall in annual inflation led by lower electricity and gas prices,” ONS chief economist Grant Fitzner said.

“This was due to the government’s energy bill support package... along with lower global wholesale energy prices before the conflict in the Middle East,” he added.

UK finance minister Rachel Reeves is set to deliver fresh cost-of-living support to millions of Britons by reportedly announcing she will cancel her pre-war plans to hike fuel duties.

“Over today and tomorrow I’ll set out the next phase of how we will support UK households,” Reeves said in a statement after the inflation report.

“The war in Iran is not our war but one we will need to respond to,” she added.

The planned action also comes after the Labour government suffered heavy losses to the hard-right Reform UK and the left-wing Greens in local and regional elections this month.

That triggered a leadership challenge to Prime Minister Keir Starmer, with Wes Streeting resigning as health minister as he bids to oust him.

Ruth Gregory, deputy chief economist at Capital Economics, said the drop in British CPI inflation “feels like the lull before the storm”.

“We expect inflation to hover around three percent until July,” she said.

Susannah Streeter, chief investment strategist at Wealth Club, said that while “the softer-than-expected inflation reading will come as welcome relief to policymakers and households... concerns remain that higher energy costs and geopolitical tensions could yet feed through”.

Worries over a renewed inflation spike, after prices surged following the Covid pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, are pushing up government bond yields around the world.

The return on the 30-year US Treasury bond reached the highest level since 2007 on Tuesday, while UK rates have hit peaks not seen for decades.

Consumer inflation jumped in both the United States and eurozone in April, to 3.8 percent and 3.0 percent year-on-year respectively.

As Bangladesh prepares to graduate from least developed country (LDC) status, the country needs to modernise its intellectual property (IP) laws to attract more foreign investment, especially from the United States, and strengthen confidence among global businesses, a US diplomat said yesterday.

Shilpi Jha, senior commercial specialist and IP policy advisor for South Asia at the US embassy in New Delhi, made the comment at a roundtable titled “Advancing the IPR Framework and the Way Forward”.

The American Chamber of Commerce in Bangladesh organised the event at The Westin Dhaka.

Stronger and internationally aligned intellectual property protection is no longer just a legal requirement, but an economic necessity, the diplomat said, adding that an updated IP framework would help Bangladesh integrate more effectively into the global economy, boost exports, encourage innovation, and attract foreign direct investment.

Bangladesh has already taken important steps by enacting the Patent Act 2023 and introducing a new Design Act. However, further reforms are needed to align the country’s intellectual property system with international standards and best practices, she said.

Bangladesh currently enjoys certain flexibilities under international agreements because of its LDC status, which has delayed the full implementation of some reforms.

Nevertheless, policymakers and businesses increasingly recognise the importance of stronger IP protection for long-term economic growth, the diplomat added.

Under the Design Act, innovators can now register original industrial designs not previously available in the market.

At the same time, efforts are underway to update trademark laws to meet international standards.

Experts believe these reforms could pave the way for Bangladesh to join major international IP systems such as the Madrid Protocol and the Patent Cooperation Treaty (PCT).

Joining the Madrid Protocol would allow Bangladeshi businesses and entrepreneurs to apply for trademark protection in multiple countries, including the United States, India, and Nepal, through a simplified process from within Bangladesh.

Similarly, becoming a member of the PCT would enable Bangladeshi inventors to seek patent protection in numerous countries through a single international application.

Industry insiders argue that effective intellectual property protection is not only important for attracting foreign investors but also essential for supporting local industries, encouraging innovation, and helping businesses compete globally.

Weak enforcement, they warn, discourages multinational companies from introducing advanced technologies and premium products in Bangladesh due to fears of counterfeiting and misuse.

Syed Ershad Ahmed, president of the American Chamber of Commerce in Bangladesh, underscored the strategic necessity of robust IPR enforcement for the nation’s future.

He emphasised that a secure IPR framework is vital to attracting increased foreign direct investment while giving global importers and promoters the confidence to source products from Bangladesh.

The Bangladesh Bank is weighing whether to adjust policy rates in its upcoming monetary policy as internal discussions show sharp differences over the impact of interest rates on investment, inflation, and growth.

The issue was discussed at a meeting today (20 May), chaired by the governor, attended by all deputy governors, executive directors, and directors. The meeting was part of a series of consultations ahead of the next monetary policy statement.

The debate comes as lending rates remain elevated following recent policy rate hikes. Businesses have repeatedly urged the central bank to reduce rates, but no action has been taken so far.

Officials at the meeting expressed divergent views. One group argued that lower interest rates are necessary to boost investment and employment, warning that high borrowing costs risk undermining Bangladesh's competitiveness compared to neighbouring economies. They said rate cuts are essential for stimulating private sector credit growth and job creation.

Another group opposed immediate cuts, citing the "9-6 interest rate regime" between 2021 and 2024, when artificially capped lending rates failed to deliver expected investment growth. They argued that this period shows that reducing interest rates alone is insufficient to drive economic expansion.

A central bank official told TBS that Deputy Governor Zakir Hossain Chowdhury said Bangladesh is not heavily credit-dependent and that people do not typically borrow in response to price increases.

He reportedly noted that the link between interest rates, inflation, and investment is not strongly direct in the local context, adding that price increases often stem from weak market management, while strong agricultural output helps reduce inflation.

Deputy Governor Md Kabir Ahmad also said conventional economic models do not always reflect current realities and stressed that policy decisions must be taken cautiously and based on context.

The meeting further discussed profitability trends in stronger banks. Officials said deposit migration from weaker to stronger banks allows some institutions to raise deposits at lower costs while still charging higher lending rates, significantly widening interest spreads.

No decision was taken on whether rates will be increased or reduced.

Under the current monetary policy, private sector credit growth is targeted at 8.50%, but only 4.27% was achieved in March – one of the lowest levels on record. Inflation is targeted at 7%, while GDP growth is projected at 5%.

The Ministry of Finance has issued a fresh circular making the automated challan system, known as “A-Challan”, mandatory for all government revenues and receipts from July 1, 2026, completely abolishing the manual challan method.
FE

According to the circular issued on Tuesday, the decision aims to ensure maximum transparency in handling public funds, strengthen cash management, secure real-time digital deposits, and reduce the government's interest burdens resulting from hidden liquidity pools, UNB reports.

It noted that under the Constitution of Bangladesh and Treasury Rules, all government revenues and receipts must be deposited into the “Consolidated Fund” or “Public Account of the Republic” via the Treasury Single Account (TSA) maintained at Bangladesh Bank. All ministries, departments, and subordinate offices are legally obligated to use this account for their financial transactions.Bangladesh economic report

To streamline this, the government introduced the online “A-Challan” system using a 5-digit economic code during the fiscal year 2018-19 to ensure real-time deposits of revenues.

However, the Finance Division observed that several government offices are still bypassing the TSA framework. These offices continue to use old manual codes to deposit funds and are unlawfully maintaining separate bank accounts at various commercial banks.

This unauthorised practice prevents the government from determining its actual, real-time net cash balance. Consequently, despite having substantial cash scattered across commercial bank accounts, the state is forced to borrow from domestic and foreign sources at high interest rates to meet immediate expenditures.

To curb this fiscal indiscipline and minimise borrowing costs, the government has enforced three immediate directives. With the complete abolition of the manual system, the manual challan system will be completely shut down from July 1, 2026. A 100 percent automated “A-Challan” system must be implemented for all public revenues and other receipts from this date.

Cancellation of Independent Systems

Any separate financial systems or independent arrangements currently active across ministries, departments, directorates, and subordinate offices for collecting and depositing revenues must be cancelled immediately.Financial literacy course

Mandatory Fund Transfer by June 30

All funds currently accumulated by government offices in commercial banks must be mandatorily transferred to the TSA at Bangladesh Bank using the designated economic codes through “A-Challan” by June 30, 2026.

Rather than strengthening the capital market, the government is playing its habitual game of relying on banks for business financing.

This is evident in the central bank's latest decision to expand the single borrower exposure limit from 15 per cent to 25 per cent of a bank's capital.

The suspension of the effectiveness of the previous 15 per cent limit until June 2028 is feared to discourage new listings of companies from large conglomerates.

"The expansion of the exposure limit is a repetition of the same mistake that led to a systematic damage to the financial ecosystem," said Md. Ashequr Rahman, managing director of Midway Securities.

Long-term financing through banks has continued over the years against short-term deposits, which has proved to be disastrous for the banking sector after a substantial amount of loans turned sour.

Before the last national election, key representatives of the BNP said they, if voted to power, would prioritise the capital market instead of the money market in financing.

In November last year, BNP leader Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury, the incumbent finance minister, said at the Bangladesh Economic Summit that the party would put emphasis on energizing the capital market to lessen pressure on banks.Bangladesh travel guide

"We don't want to go to banks that are overused. We want to make the capital market vibrant and we're very serious about it," said Mr Chowdhury at the time.

The ruling party's election manifesto also included plans for the development of the capital market.

"All political parties spoke about a free economy, but eventually they preferred a managed economy after assuming office," said Mr Rahman while speaking with The FE over the phone on the latest policy of the Bangladesh Bank.

The change has been brought apparently to ease financial stress of the borrowers amid economic volatility.

With the high non-performing loan (NPL) ratio, however, the banks will face mounting pressure.

The overall banking sector's NPL ratio stood at over 30 per cent in December last year and deposits grew at a rate of 11.28 per cent year-on-year in February this year.

The deposit growth has not created enough room for fresh lending.

A lender having a 30 per cent NPL ratio means it has to serve purposes worth Tk 100 by Tk 70.

On receipt of fresh deposits worth Tk 11.28, the bank will be able to do the same job with Tk 81.28. Still, there is a shortfall of Tk 18.72. Besides, fresh deposits come with fresh interest liability.Global economy overview

The bank would have been in a better situation in terms of liquidity and for fresh lending had the deposit growth been at least equivalent to the NPL ratio.

In a situation like this, the expansion of the single borrower's exposure limit is not conducive to creating a healthy financial ecosystem.

Mr Rahman, of Midway Securities, said the BB decision is aimed at easing financial stress of business groups but they will borrow money from banks to execute long-term plans. "Will the central bank be able to restore the previous 15 per cent limit after two years?"

In the pre-budget meeting held between the National Board of Revenue (NBR) and stakeholders of the capital market, it was discussed that the companies that would exhaust a certain limit of credit must go to the capital market to raise more capital and that money could be raised through both equity and debt instruments.

After the promise of prioritising the capital market by the government and subsequent discussions in this regard with the revenue board, the central bank expanded the single borrower exposure limit.

Stakeholders of the capital market said both the securities regulator and the central bank are regulatory bodies. But the central bank enjoys the authority to take decisions without consulting other regulators.

On the other hand, since its inception in 1993, the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) has failed to establish its importance before the government and other regulatory bodies.

Alongside the failure of the BSEC, stock exchanges and professional bodies of the capital market have also been unable to play any role in bringing good companies, which heavily rely on bank financing, to the secondary market.

The government is considering the introduction of a refund mechanism for excess minimum tax paid by companies if the amount cannot be adjusted against future profits within a specified period – a move aimed at improving tax fairness and easing a major concern among domestic and foreign investors.

Officials at the National Board of Revenue told The Business Standard that the proposal, likely to be included in the upcoming national budget, would allow business entities to claim refunds of excess minimum tax after three years if they fail to offset the amount against future taxable income.

A senior NBR official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said, "We have long felt that a non-refundable minimum tax system conflicts with international standards and the principles of tax justice. The upcoming budget will contain a positive development in this regard."

Another official said companies would become eligible for such refunds after a set timeframe, which is currently being considered at three years.

"The refund process will be handled through an automated faceless system. Representatives of companies will not need to visit tax offices. Refunds will be automatically credited to their bank accounts," the official added.

Officials also said the NBR plans to strengthen compliance systems and data integration before implementing the refund mechanism to prevent abuse by non-compliant taxpayers.

Welcoming the move, business leaders and tax experts said the proposed reform could significantly improve Bangladesh's investment climate by reducing capital erosion caused by turnover-based taxation.

Under the existing system, companies are required to pay minimum tax based on turnover or gross receipts, regardless of whether they make a profit or incur losses. Businesses have long argued that the inability to recover excess minimum tax has sharply increased their effective tax burden, despite reductions in statutory corporate tax rates in recent years.

Bangladesh currently has around 3 crore registered business entities, although only about 30,000 submit tax returns, according to NBR officials. Minimum tax rates on company turnover range from 1% to 3.5%, while more than 30 other categories of taxpayers are also subject to minimum tax on gross receipts, with rates reaching as high as 20%.

Last year's budget allowed companies to carry forward excess minimum tax for adjustment against future tax liabilities. However, businesses argued that the provision offered little practical relief for firms facing prolonged losses or persistently low profit margins.

Concerns over effective tax burden

Corporate tax rates in Bangladesh have been reduced by nearly 10 percentage points over the past several years. Non-listed companies currently pay 27.5% corporate tax, while listed firms pay between 22.5% and 25%.

Despite these cuts, business groups have argued that high minimum taxes and the absence of refunds have pushed effective tax rates to nearly 50% in some cases.

Minimum tax was first introduced in Bangladesh in the fiscal 2012-13 to address widespread tax evasion among companies that repeatedly declared losses. NBR officials said about 60% of the income tax currently collected is collected as minimum tax.

Former NBR member for income tax policy Syed Md Aminul Karim said the system was originally introduced because the tax authority lacked the capacity to detect profit concealment effectively.

"Many companies used to show losses year after year to evade taxes. Since it was difficult for the NBR to uncover such evasion, the minimum tax system was introduced. However, compliant companies ended up suffering," he said.

Why businesses oppose minimum tax

Under the current regime, businesses must pay tax based on turnover even if their actual taxable income is lower.

For example, if a company pays Tk1 crore in minimum tax at a 2% turnover tax rate, but its final profit-based tax liability is only Tk70 lakh, the excess Tk30 lakh is not refunded under the existing system. As a result, the company's effective tax burden rises above the statutory corporate tax rate.

The problem becomes more severe for companies incurring losses as they are still required to pay minimum tax despite having no taxable income.

Mobile phone operator Robi Axiata said it has paid around Tk1,000 crore more in minimum tax than its actual tax liability over the years. Although the company has recently returned to stronger profitability, allowing it to offset excess taxes, Banglalink, another mobile phone operator, continues to face losses while remaining subject to minimum tax obligations.

The issue has been repeatedly raised by business organisations, including the Foreign Investors' Chamber of Commerce and Industry and the Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce and Industry.

Shahed Alam, chief corporate and regulatory officer of Robi Axiata, said turnover tax remains a major obstacle to business growth.

He added that the turnover tax imposes tax on gross revenue without considering whether a company is profitable or loss-making, making the system inconsistent with the principles of fair taxation.

Taimur Rahman, chief corporate and regulatory affairs officer of Banglalink, said, "Banglalink has been subject to minimum tax since FY2015 and, up to FY2024, the company has paid approximately Tk938.90 crore under the minimum tax regime. Since these taxes were paid despite the absence of taxable profits, the minimum tax mechanism has had a significant impact on the company's cash flow and investment capacity."

Wide coverage of minimum tax regime

Under the current Income Tax Act, mobile phone operators are subject to a 1.5% minimum tax on annual turnover. Manufacturers of carbonated beverages, sugary products and tobacco products face a 3% rate, while most other companies pay 1%.

Individuals with annual gross receipts exceeding Tk3 crore are also subject to a 1% minimum tax.

Exporters are required to pay 1% tax on export proceeds, while at least 32 withholding tax provisions are also treated as minimum tax, meaning taxpayers cannot reclaim excess deductions even if their final tax liability is lower.

Experts welcome proposed reform

SK Zami Chowdhury, managing partner of chartered accountancy firm Chowdhury Emdad and Company, said the proposed refund mechanism would help establish greater tax fairness.

"However, the authorities must first ensure that loopholes for tax evasion are properly addressed before implementing the refund system," he said.

Syed Md Aminul Karim said taxing businesses without income contradicts the fundamental philosophy of taxation.

"Introducing a refund system would be a positive and necessary step," he added.

Welcoming the reform initiative, Banglalink's Taimur Rahman said, "The proposed refund mechanism for unadjusted minimum tax is a positive and constructive step, which would help reduce long-term financial pressure on businesses operating in challenging market conditions."

The Bangladesh Bank is set to introduce stricter rules for transferring money from bank cards to mobile financial services (MFS) accounts, commonly known as "add money", amid growing concerns over cyber fraud and unauthorised transactions.

Under the new rules, which will take effect from 1 August this year, customers will only be able to transfer money from a bank card to an MFS account if both are registered under the same name. Banks and MFS providers will be required to verify that the receiving MFS account belongs to the cardholder.

The central bank decided to impose the restriction following a major fraud incident involving a foreign bank operating in Bangladesh, where fraudsters transferred money from customers' cards to MFS wallets through unauthorised transactions.

Officials familiar with the matter said the Payment Systems Department of the Bangladesh Bank is expected to issue a circular on the new measures soon.

As an interim arrangement until August, customers will still be able to transfer money from one person's card to another person's MFS account. However, a token transaction of up to Tk500 must first be completed during the card-linking process.

Regular transactions will only be permitted 24 hours after the successful completion of the token transaction and linking process.

The Bangladesh Bank has also instructed MFS providers to classify card-to-MFS add money transactions as "fund transfers" rather than "merchant payments". The central bank further said the beneficiary wallet number must remain visible to the card-issuing bank during transactions.

Banks and MFS providers that fail to ensure this facility by 31 July will not be allowed to offer add money services through those cards from 1 August onwards.

According to sector insiders and central bank officials, a cybercrime group in the last week of August 2025 syphoned off nearly Tk27 lakh from at least 54 customers of Standard Chartered Bank (SCB) by bypassing one-time password protections on credit and debit cards issued by bank and transferring funds to mobile wallets such as bKash and Nagad.

Victims had reported that without their knowledge or any transaction, Tk50,000 was transferred from their cards to bKash and Nagad accounts in each instance. The money was then quickly withdrawn by the fraud group, and the MFS accounts were immediately closed.

An investigation by The Business Standard found that the fraudsters used SIM cards and MFS accounts registered under other people's names to move the stolen funds.

Following the incident, SCB suspended the add money feature from its cards to MFS platforms.