The US central bank is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its policy meeting next week, as energy prices stay high and supply chains snarled due to war in the Middle East.

The Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting, starting Tuesday, could be chairman Jerome Powell’s last at the helm of the independent institution.

But it takes place against a tricky backdrop. Powell’s successor has faced a bumpy road to confirmation, while policymakers battle competing pressures as steeper fuel prices drive inflation and job market worries linger.

Fed officials are set to keep rates steady at a range between 3.50 percent and 3.75 percent, extending their pause since the start of the year.

“We still have a very high level of uncertainty on what’s happening in the Middle East,” KPMG senior economist Kenneth Kim told AFP.

Oil and gasoline prices remain elevated even if they have peaked, meaning “there’s certainly an energy shock that’s still impacting both consumers and businesses,” he said.

The Fed has a dual mandate of maintaining price stability and low unemployment.

It tends to keep interest rates high to curb inflation or lower them to spur growth, meaning that current conditions pull officials in different directions.

Navy Federal Credit Union Chief Economist Heather Long expects Powell to be “non-committal” on the path of rates, as the full impact from the war on Iran remains unknown.

The oil price hikes came after US-Israeli strikes targeting Iran from February 28 sparked Tehran’s retaliation in virtually closing the Strait of Hormuz -- a key waterway for energy transit.

CONTAINING INFLATION

Fed officials will likely focus more on containing inflation than the jobs market this meeting, with the war entering its ninth week.

The strait is also a key passage for fertilizers, and disruptions threaten to hit food production.

Already, US consumer inflation reached its highest level in nearly two years in March at 3.3 percent as energy costs rocketed.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who earlier backed lower rates to support employment, indicated this month that a prolonged conflict could make it hard for the central bank to cut rates this year.

If there were high inflation and a weak labor market, one would have to balance risks on both sides.

This “may mean maintaining the policy rate at the current target range if the risks to inflation outweigh those to the labor market,” he told an Alabama event.

KPMG’s Kim said solid hiring recently “gives the Fed some cushion” to temporarily focus more on prices.

Analysts will monitor if the Fed signals in its post-meeting statement that rate hikes are a possibility.

‘CRITICAL JUNCTURE’

The Fed is also taking its next steps under intense political scrutiny.

President Donald Trump has made no secret of his wish for lower interest rates, and regularly slammed Powell for not cutting them aggressively.

Beyond rhetoric, Trump has sought to oust Fed Governor Lisa Cook over claims of mortgage fraud. The Supreme Court is set to rule on whether he can fire her.

Meanwhile, Trump’s choice of new Fed chairman -- Kevin Warsh -- has faced a bumpy road to confirmation.

Republican senator Thom Tillis on the Senate Banking Committee vowed to block Fed appointments until a Justice Department probe into the Fed and Powell is resolved, setting up a potential impasse on the panel Warsh needs to clear.

But the Department of Justice said Friday it would drop the investigation linked to renovation costs overruns, potentially paving the way for Warsh’s ascendance.

Asked by journalists Saturday about the DOJ’s move, Trump said he still wants to look into the cost of the Federal Reserve building renovations, which he has claimed is too high.

“I tell you, I want to find out. I have an obligation to find out,” he said.

Warsh has repeatedly pledged to remain independent if confirmed.

“We’re at a critical juncture for the Fed,” EY-Parthenon chief economist Gregory Daco told AFP.

“It may be that under Warsh, we’re going to see less Fed transparency, less Fed communication than we had in the past,” he said, referring to Warsh’s confirmation hearing testimony.

Powell’s chairman term expires May 15, and he originally intended to stay on the Fed’s board of governors until the probe on him is completed.

All eyes are on his future plans at his scheduled press briefing Wednesday.

A quiet but fast-moving shift is underway on Bangladesh's roads as electric bikes and e-scooters emerge as a new growth industry, drawing over Tk2,000 crore in fresh investments and rapidly rising consumer demand.

What began as a niche market just a few years ago is now drawing significant investment from some of the country's largest conglomerates, including Nasir Group, Walton, PRAN-RFL Group, Runner Automobiles and Akij Group.

Driven by high fuel prices, rising urban living costs, traffic congestion and growing demand for cleaner transport, e-bikes are increasingly becoming a practical choice for commuters and a serious business opportunity for manufacturers.

Industry insiders estimate that at least five major companies made fresh investments in the sector over the past year alone, with ongoing commitments exceeding Tk2,000 crore.

At the same time, imports have surged sharply, highlighting how rapidly consumer demand is building. Just three years ago, monthly e-bike sales in Bangladesh were negligible, hovering around 100 units. Today, monthly sales have climbed into the thousands.

National Board of Revenue data show imports of e-bikes quadrupled within three years. Imports rose from 2,446 units in FY23 to 10,053 units in FY25. However, industry players say the actual market is significantly larger.

Subail bin Alam, chief operating officer of Nasir Syntax Motors Ltd, said NBR import data do not fully capture the market because a large volume of CKD kits entered Bangladesh in 2025 and many of those shipments are not reflected in the headline numbers.

"If those are added, the actual figure would be several times higher, with hundreds of e-bikes now being sold every day," he added.

He said the market received a major boost after the government reduced taxes on imported electric two-wheelers and parts in 2024. Currently, completely built-up unit imports face 98.87% tax, while CKD imports are taxed at around 37%, making local assembly increasingly attractive. For fuel-based motorcycles, the rates are 125% and 90%, respectively.

This shift has encouraged multiple firms to enter the market or expand operations.

Subail added that while fuel-based motorcycles cost around Tk3-4 per kilometre to operate, e-bikes cost only 30-40 paisa per kilometre, making them highly cost-effective for daily users.

"A battery costing Tk30,000-35,000 can last around three years. Over the same period, maintenance costs for petrol bikes are much higher. That is why consumers are turning to e-bikes as an alternative."

Major players scale up investments

Among the newest major entrants is Nasir Group, which has already invested Tk300 crore in the sector.

The company launched five models in November 2025, two with graphene batteries and three with lithium batteries, and has already built showrooms in 40 districts as part of an aggressive expansion strategy.

Subail said Nasir Syntax Motors initially began producing around 70 bikes per day, but has built a factory with the capacity to scale several times higher depending on demand.

"Our target is to invest Tk500 crore in EVs," he said.

PRAN-RFL Group has also entered the race with its RYDO e-scooter brand. The company has invested around Tk200 crore, with production beginning in January this year at its Habiganj facility.

The plant currently produces around 500 units per month, with plans to scale up to 3,000 units monthly at full capacity.

RN Paul, managing director of RFL Group, said current duty structures remain a challenge because they raise retail prices.

He said the company is engaging with policymakers and aims to bring e-scooters to market at around Tk50,000 by 2027, subject to stronger policy support.

Walton, one of Bangladesh's largest electronics manufacturers, has already established an early lead. The company launched the country's first locally produced e-bike under the Takyon brand in 2022 and currently commands around 18% market share.

Its manufacturing ecosystem already includes assembly lines, plastic moulding, PCB SMT production for digital systems and battery management systems, as well as battery manufacturing facilities.

Touhidur Rahman Rad, chief business officer of Walton Digi-Tech Industries Ltd, said Walton plans a dedicated 1,20,000-square-foot e-bike factory with an annual production capacity of 20,000 units.

The project is expected to generate more than 1,500 jobs with an investment running into several hundred crore taka.

He said e-bikes can reduce household transport fuel costs by as much as 80%, allowing families to recover the cost of ownership within a relatively short period.

Runner, Akij intensify competition

Runner Automobiles, a long-established player in Bangladesh's motorcycle market, has also accelerated its EV strategy.

After entering motorcycle manufacturing in 2012 with over Tk500 crore in phased investment, Runner began assembling e-scooters in 2025 in partnership with China's Yadea.

It had already launched e-bikes under the eWave brand several years earlier.

Priced between Tk70,000 and Tk100,000, Runner's e-bikes have gained a strong foothold.

Runner Automobiles Chairman Hafizur Rahman said the company plans to move from assembly to full manufacturing at its Bhaluka factory in Mymensingh.

Meanwhile, Akij Motors entered the e-bike segment between 2020 and 2022 and now assembles seven models at its Gazipur facility.

The company is focusing on the premium segment, with most models priced above Tk1,00,000.

An Akij official said customer preferences are shifting towards better performance, durability and higher-quality vehicles.

Why consumers are switching

A petrol-powered motorcycle typically costs Tk2-3 per kilometre in fuel. An e-bike costs only Tk0.30-0.40 per kilometre.

There is no engine oil, lower servicing costs, and monthly charging expenses can be as low as Tk300-500.

Nawshad Alam, an HR official at BRAC Bank, recently bought a Jiho A8 SE electric scooter for Tk2,20,000.

The lithium-powered scooter can travel 105–110 kilometres on a full charge.

"I bought an e-bike to avoid the hassle of fuel," he said.

"I no longer need to stand in petrol pump queues. I charge it at home. There is almost no fuel or servicing cost, and the company gave a three-year warranty."

He added that premium models are expensive, but entry-level bikes begin at around Tk50,000.

Md Mahmudur Rahman, general manager of RFL E-bike, said young professionals, especially women, are increasingly adopting e-bikes.

Their controlled speed makes them appear safer to many families, helping transform them from transport tools into lifestyle products.

He said countries such as India, China and Vietnam demonstrate the long-term potential of electric mobility.

Even families that already own cars or motorcycles are buying e-scooters for short urban trips because of their affordability and convenience, he added.

Md Matiur Rahman of Transsion Holdings said rising fuel prices and worsening congestion are steadily pushing consumers away from conventional motorcycles.

Import dependency

Despite growing local assembly, Bangladesh remains heavily reliant on imports.

Most units arrive fully built from China, while another 20-30% come in as SKD or CKD kits for local assembly. Foreign brands still dominate parts of the market.

Revoo, imported by Transsion Holdings since 2022, controls around 20% market share, offering high-performance models with ranges of up to 80 kilometres, swappable lithium batteries and NFC smart unlocking.

Chinese brands such as TailG, Salida, AIMA and Exploit also maintain strong positions.

Charging, registration still major barriers

Industry leaders say the sector's biggest growth constraints are inadequate charging infrastructure and cumbersome registration processes.

Bangladesh currently has only 112 public charging stations, concentrated in Dhaka and Chattogram, creating severe range anxiety outside major cities.

Subail of Nasir Syntax Motors said a rider who leaves home with a partial charge has few options if the battery runs out mid-journey.

"Fuel stations exist everywhere, but charging stations do not. The government still has no clear policy framework. This is a major barrier for EV adoption," he said.

Walton's Touhidur Rahman said demand is currently stronger in Khulna and Chattogram than in Dhaka in some cases, partly due to road-use patterns and infrastructure realities.

He said rapid expansion of fast-charging and battery-swapping stations would dramatically accelerate growth.

Md Moshiuzzan, director of corporate affairs at Nasir Syntax Motors, said e-bike registration costs range from Tk8,000 to Tk12,000.

He added that no dedicated BRTA desk exists for e-bike registration, forcing many buyers into lengthy procedures and leaving many vehicles unregistered.

Bangladesh's motorcycle market is now worth an estimated Tk7,000-8,000 crore, expanding at 16-17% annually.

Nearly 99% of motorcycles sold locally are now manufactured or assembled in Bangladesh, a transformation driven by supportive industrial policies.

If registration systems are simplified, charging infrastructure expanded and tax policies remain supportive, Bangladesh's e-bike market may soon become the next major success story in domestic manufacturing and urban mobility, stakeholders say.

Bangladesh's economy last week revolved around energy-related costs straining public finances, a halt in fertiliser production due to gas shortages, and fresh burdens on trade from rising container depot charges.

The week was also marked by a revenue collection shortfall heading into the fiscal year-end, and pushback from the garment industry against US allegations of forced labour and overcapacity.

The following is a recap of those major stories as covered by Star Business.

$2 billion out of pocket as energy costs surge, says finance minister (April 19)

Bangladesh has incurred nearly $2 billion in additional energy costs owing to global supply chain disruptions, Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury said while addressing an event in Washington. He called for urgent budget support to ease fiscal pressure and shore up weakened banks.

Gas shortage brings DAP fertiliser production to a halt (April 20)

Production at the state-owned DAP Fertilizer Company Limited in Chattogram ground to a halt after an acute ammonia shortage, itself a consequence of the prolonged closure of five urea factories, including CUFL and Kafco, disrupted by gas supply problems tied to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

ICDs raise charges, a day after fuel price hike (April 21)

Private inland container depots hiked handling charges by 8.5 percent, just one day after diesel prices climbed 15 percent. Exporters immediately protested the move, warning it would raise trade costs and further weaken Bangladesh's competitiveness in global markets.

Missed targets: NBR needs Tk 2.6 lakh crore by June to avoid shortfall (April 22)

The National Board of Revenue faces a Tk 2.6 lakh crore collection target in the final quarter of FY26 after falling nearly Tk 1 lakh crore short of its nine-month goal. Analysts pointed to slowing GDP and elevated energy costs as the chief obstacles to closing the gap.

No overcapacity, forced labour in apparel sector (April 23)

The BGMEA firmly rejected US allegations of forced labour and overcapacity in Bangladesh's garment sector. In a formal position paper, the association said that its exports support rather than undercut the US economy, and that the industry operates in full compliance with internationally recognised labour standards.

Oil climbed on Monday (27 April) as stalled US-Iran peace talks prolonged the disruption of Middle East energy exports, while renewed excitement about artificial intelligence spending drove up chip stocks ‌at the beginning of a week where war, central banks and tech earnings are in focus.

Benchmark Brent crude futures rose around 2% to touch a three-week high of $107.97 a barrel in Asia trade, a level that has stoked inflation worries and prompted traders to all but price out rate cuts in developed markets this year.

S&P 500 futures wobbled in the Asia session but tacked on small gains of around 0.2% after markets in Taiwan, Tokyo and Seoul followed Wall Street to notch record highs on a new wave of AI optimism.

Currency trading was broadly steady, with the euro at $1.1724 and the yen at 159.32 per dollar.

Bond ⁠markets were calm ahead of central bank meetings in Japan, the US, Britain, Europe, Canada and a smattering of emerging markets.

While a ceasefire has frozen most fighting in the war, starting with US-Israeli strikes on Iran two months ago, markets are focused on the shuttered Strait of Hormuz, where barely any ships carrying oil and gas have transited.

The average LNG price for June delivery into northeast Asia was $16.70 per million British thermal units last week, nearly 61% above pre-war levels.

Goldman Sachs analysts lifted year-end oil price forecasts sharply from $80 to $90 a barrel for Brent, and even that rests on normalisation of Gulf exports by the end of June.

"Non-linear price increases are likely if inventories drop to critically low levels, which we have not seen in the last few decades," they warned in a note.

US President Donald Trump cancelled a trip to Islamabad by US envoys for talks on the weekend, but investors were buoyed slightly by an Axios report saying Iran wants to make a deal ‌on opening ⁠the strait first and postpone nuclear talks until later.

Rates and hyperscalers earnings

Beyond oil derivatives and the even more stretched physical market where jet fuel fetches $185 a barrel in Singapore, equity investors have hoped for a breakthrough and tried to look past the oil shock to an AI trend that is seen as unstoppable.

"AI is something that people are very optimistic about and very much considered a winner," said Mike Seidenberg, senior portfolio manager for Allianz Technology Trust.

"It's the top of the portfolio."

Intel's forecast for second-quarter revenue above Wall Street ⁠expectations last week set off the latest round of buying that has pushed the total value of the chip-maker-heavy stock markets in Taiwan and South Korea above Germany's.

US tech earnings headline the week ahead, with 44% of the S&P 500 by market cap due to report and the focus on capex at Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta Platforms, which report ⁠on Wednesday. Apple reports on Thursday.

Major central banks are expected to stay on hold this week, though aggressive bets on future rate hikes in Britain and Europe could be tested if policymakers strike a cautious tone.

The Bank of Japan is the first off the rank and is expected to keep its short-term policy rate steady at ⁠0.75% on Tuesday.

The Federal Reserve is also expected to leave rates where they are at what is likely to be Jerome Powell's final meeting in the chair.

The European Central Bank and Bank of England are likewise expected to hold, but their tone and outlook could challenge market pricing for both banks to make two 25-basis-point hikes later in the year.

Liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies are likely to remain strained through the end of 2027 due to disruptions and infrastructure damage from the US-Iran war, the International Energy Agency said Friday.

Energy prices have soared since Tehran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz to Gulf tanker traffic and began striking oil and gas targets in neighbouring countries in retaliation for US and Israeli attacks.

“The combined effect of short-term supply losses and slower capacity growth could result in a cumulative loss of around 120 billion cubic metres of LNG supply between 2026 and 2030,” the Paris-based agency said in a new report.

It said nearly 20 percent of LNG supply has been lost due to the conflict, and warned that new investments to increase production are likely to be delayed.

“While new liquefaction projects in other regions are expected to offset these losses over time, the impact will prolong tight markets through 2026 and 2027,” it said.

Soaring prices could also depress demand for gas, with many countries already announcing energy-saving measures that could drive demand for renewable energy sources.

“The demand side is set to play a key role in balancing the market -- particularly in Asia, where fuel switching is already picking up alongside energy-saving measures,” the IEA said.

Economists warn that persistently high prices could spark widespread inflation that could derail growth worldwide if consumers curtail spending in response.

More than a decade after Bangladesh and China announced a Chinese Economic and Industrial Zone in Anwara upazila of Chattogram, the project remains largely on paper with no visible construction.

The Bangladesh Economic Zones Authority (Beza), which is overseeing the project, says the zone could attract $1.5 billion in investment and create more than 200,000 jobs. However, there are still no firm commitments, signed land-lease agreements, or confirmed factory setups.

Of the nearly 784 acres allocated in Anwara, only about 60 acres have been prepared, and not a single factory has been established.

Basic infrastructure on the ground is still incomplete, with utility services only partly in place. The Chattogram Water Supply and Sewerage Authority has installed a limited water supply pipeline, while the Karnaphuli Gas Distribution Company has set up a nearby gas station.

Beza has also built an administrative building and two access roads.

This reflects a broader pattern in Bangladesh’s investment landscape, where large pledges do not always translate into actual inflows. Chinese foreign direct investment also remains modest, with only a small share of announced amounts materialising.

HOW THE PROJECT BEGAN

The project dates back to June 2014, when, during a visit to China, former prime minister Sheikh Hasina proposed an exclusive economic zone for Chinese investors. Beza pursued the plan and signed an agreement with China’s commerce ministry during the visit.

The Executive Committee of the National Economic Council approved the project in September 2015 and allocated Tk 420.37 crore for the first phase, with China expected to provide a loan to fund it.

Beza later acquired land in Anwara, about 270 kilometres south of Dhaka, for the zone.

In October 2016, Beza signed a contract with China Harbour Engineering Company Limited, but the development and land-lease agreements could not be finalised, and the deal collapsed in April 2022.

Later, on July 16, 2022, China nominated the China Road and Bridge Corporation (CRBC) as the new developer. Beza signed cooperation and investment terms with CRBC later that year and finalised the shareholder agreement in October 2023.

Progress remained slow under the Awami League government. After the political change in August 2024, the interim government renewed efforts to move the project forward, but there has still been no progress on the ground.

This is happening despite stronger Dhaka-Beijing ties and rising US tariffs that are encouraging Chinese manufacturers to consider relocating factories.

Beza sources said some Chinese manufacturers visited the site last year, and around 200 investors are expected to participate in the zone, suggesting the project still has strong potential if long-standing delays are resolved.

BEZA EXPLAINS DELAYS IN NEGOTIATIONS

“Progress on the proposed Chinese economic zone has been slow due to unresolved contractual and commercial issues,” said Mohammad Zakaria Mithu, director (MIS and research) at Beza.

He said that although land acquisition is complete, no formal agreement has been signed with the Chinese side, and negotiations on the engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contract are still ongoing.

“The development agreement, which is needed to start physical work, depends on finalising the EPC contract,” he added.

Mithu also said disagreements over cost valuation under the Chinese loan framework remain a key obstacle, with both sides yet to align their expectations.

He attributed the delays mainly to prolonged negotiations and pending approvals, while a multi-ministry committee is working to resolve the issues.

Mithu added that once the EPC contract is finalised, further steps such as the development agreement, company registration and formal approval can proceed, enabling implementation.

He also said Chinese investment is expected in sectors including textile manufacturing, electronics assembly, renewable energy (solar), light engineering and agribusiness.

Meanwhile, Ashik Chowdhury, executive chairman of Beza, has outlined a 180-day roadmap to complete negotiations for the long-stalled project.

He said that although part of the land is ready, progress has been delayed due to unresolved commercial issues between the government and Chinese private partners.

“These disputes have delayed the signing of key land-lease and development agreements,” he added.

Chowdhury said the immediate focus is to resolve technical cost issues and complete administrative procedures so that groundwork can begin within six months.

He added that the goal is to shift the project from prolonged negotiations to actual industrial development.

India has ramped up purchases of Russian oil and revived alternate supplies from Africa, Iran and Venezuela to blunt a sharp crude shortfall from the crisis-ridden Middle East, analysts say.

India, the world’s third-largest oil buyer, normally sources about half of its crude through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway that has seen only a trickle of traffic since the United States and Israel launched attacks on Iran on February 28.

India’s heavy import dependence, combined with modest oil reserves compared with major consumers like China, has prompted analysts to warn that India could be among the most vulnerable to a sudden oil price hike.

But while India is grappling with disruptions to cooking gas supplies, it has so far avoided the petrol shortages that have hit some neighbouring nations.

Ship‑tracking and import data show that India has partially plugged the gap by turning to old allies, expanding promising ties and reviving suppliers it had not tapped in years.

The biggest backstop has been Russian crude -- a fuel source New Delhi spent much of the past year trying to pivot away from under stiff US tariffs.

Indian refiners imported an average of nearly 1.98 million barrels per day (bpd) from Russia in March, according to trade intelligence firm Kpler -- a sharp jump from the previous two months.

Analysts say the surge was likely aided by a temporary US waiver granted in March covering Russian oil already at sea.

“Imports rose from approximately one million bpd in January and February,” said Nikhil Dubey, an analyst at Kpler.

“This near‑doubling suggests that this additional volume was likely contracted following the sanction waiver,” he told AFP.

USEFUL PURCHASE

India likely purchased an additional 60 million barrels of Russian oil that will be delivered through April, two trade analysts said.

Washington’s exemptions have drawn criticism from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who says they complicate efforts to choke off Russia’s revenues more than four years into its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

But Kyiv gained little leverage after US President Donald Trump last week extended the waiver on Russian seaborne oil by another month.

“The extension gives Indian refiners the runway they urgently needed,” said Rahul Choudhary, vice‑president at Rystad Energy.

“Indian refiners will likely move quickly to lock in the additional barrels the extension unlocks before the May 16 deadline.”

Other markets have also aided India.

Imports from Angola averaged 327,000 bpd in March, data from Kpler shows, nearly three times what India received in February.

Industry watchers say African crude purchases were made before the United States struck Iran and have proven to be useful.

“A lot of the uptick you’re seeing from Angola in March or Nigeria in April comes because we were (already) looking at sources other than Russia,” an official at a state‑run refiner told AFP, requesting anonymity because they were not authorised to speak with journalists.

“It’s now come in handy because shipments from Iraq and most of the Middle East have fallen heavily.”

According to Kpler, crude from both Iran and Venezuela began arriving this month.

Imports from Iran averaged 276,000 bpd as of mid‑April, while shipments from Venezuela stood at around 137,000 bpd, preliminary data from Kpler shows.

The purchases have proven to be a fortuitous windfall for refiners who largely steered clear of both suppliers previously to avoid US ire.

HIGHER PRICES

Despite the diversification, the road ahead looks difficult.

India’s overall crude imports fell in March, sliding to 4.5 million bpd from 5.2 million in February, according to Kpler.

Analysts also cautioned that oil from the African nations has limits as a substitute.

“In a prolonged Iran conflict scenario, African crudes can partially backfill supply. However, they are unlikely to fully replace Middle Eastern barrels on a structural basis due to crude slate mismatches,” said Dubey, explaining Indian refineries were configured for different grades than what comes from the African countries.

Higher prices are also a problem.

“The era of cheap oil is over for now, but access has been preserved. Either way, India doesn’t have the luxury of walking away,” said Choudhary, noting that April barrels were secured at between $5 and $15 above the Brent global oil benchmark.

State‑run retailers have yet to raise pump prices, with the government instead cutting excise duties on fuel.

Some analysts warn prices could rise by as much as 28 rupees (30 cents) per litre once voting in key state elections ends later this month.

The oil ministry acknowledged Thursday that government‑owned fuel companies were incurring losses but denied that a price hike was imminent.

“India is the only country where petrol and diesel prices haven’t increased in the last four years,” it said.

The government and state oil firms “have taken relentless steps in order to insulate Indian citizens from steep increases in international prices”.

Bangladesh can increase its tax revenue from the current level of less than 7 per cent of GDP to around 15 per cent without raising tax rates by ensuring transparency, accountability and greater efficiency in tax administration, experts and economists said.

They stressed the need for urgent reforms, including separating tax policy formulation from tax collection authorities, along with institutional and procedural improvements to enhance enforcement capacity and reduce tax evasion.

The observations came on Sunday at a policy dialogue titled “Rationalising Supplementary Duty and VAT in Bangladesh: Evidence, Challenges, and Reform Pathways,” organised by the Policy Research Institute of Bangladesh with support from The M Group, Inc.

Zakir Ahmed Khan, chairman of Palli Karma-Sahayak Foundation, attended as the chief guest. The event was chaired by Zaidi Sattar.

Shamsul Huq Zahid, editor of The Financial Express, and Zakir Hossain, associate editor of Daily Samakal, shared their insights on the keynote presented by Bazlul Haque Khondker, research director of PRI, and Hafiz Choudhury, principal of The M Group.Financial news subscription

Zakir Ahmed Khan said Bangladesh’s tax potential could be significantly higher if enforcement is strengthened and systemic leakages are reduced. Proper enforcement of existing laws alone could raise revenue by 30–40 per cent, he added.

He argued that instead of comparing with other countries, Bangladesh should assess its own tax potential based on its economic structure, rates and base. With improved compliance and enforcement, the country could reach a tax-to-GDP ratio of around 15 per cent without increasing tax rates.

However, he cautioned that enforcement should not turn into “tax terrorism” but should promote voluntary compliance and trust in the system.

Khan also emphasised the need to separate tax policy formulation from tax administration under the National Board of Revenue (NBR) to improve efficiency, accountability and research capacity. He said stronger reforms, better analysis and continuous policy review are essential to unlock Bangladesh’s revenue potential and address fiscal challenges.

Zaidi Sattar said Bangladesh’s ongoing tax liberalisation reflects a structural tax deficit and weak revenue capacity, as indicated by low tax buoyancy.

He observed that heavy reliance on import tariffs, regulatory duties and supplementary duties has raised domestic prices, particularly for consumer goods, making them higher than international levels and even compared to India.Economic analysis reports

He added that although purchasing power parity suggests higher real income, high domestic prices reduce affordability and competitiveness.

Shamsul Huq Zahid said the NBR tends to rely on supplementary and regulatory duties to offset weak direct tax collection, often using high duties to protect inefficient domestic industries.

He noted that Bangladesh, once a pioneer in introducing VAT in the region, is now lagging behind countries like India and Nepal in modern tax systems such as GST, largely due to inefficiencies in tax administration.

“The NBR’s inability to generate sufficient direct tax revenue has led to growing dependence on indirect taxation, which distorts the tax structure and reduces efficiency,” he said.

The European Union and United States signed an agreement Friday to coordinate on the supply of critical minerals needed for key industries including defense, as China's dominance becomes a growing concern.

The pact marks a rare embrace by President Donald Trump's administration of the role of the EU, which it often berates as it instead champions right-wing populists within Europe.

Flexing its muscle at times of tension, Beijing has restricted exports of critical minerals needed for products including semiconductors, electric vehicle batteries and weapons systems.

"The overconcentration of these resources, the fact that they're dominated by one or two places, is an unacceptable risk," US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said as he signed a memorandum of understanding with EU trade chief Maros Sefcovic.

Sefcovic told a separate press briefing that the agreement "formalizes our partnership across the entire value chain, from exploration and extraction to processing, refining, recycling and recovery."

On concerns that China could retaliate against a potential critical minerals deal involving multiple parties, Sefcovic said: "For us, it's really a matter of economic security. It's a matter of overcoming dependencies."

From recent experience, "we know how dependencies could be expensive, and we have a huge price tag for being dependent on the sources of our fossil fuels," he added.

"We simply want to learn from that experience and have a much more diversified portfolio of suppliers," Sefcovic said.

Rubio noted that the United States and the EU combined are "the largest customers and users" of critical minerals.

"We have to make sure that these supplies and these minerals are available for our futures and in ways that are not monopolized in one place or concentrated heavily in one place," Rubio added.

An action plan said that the EU and United States would explore setting minimum prices on critical minerals -- effectively preventing China or other outside powers from flooding the market with inexpensive exports.

They will also look at coordinating any subsidies and stockpiles of critical minerals, and could coordinate joint standards to ease trade across the Western world, and together invest in research.

The US Trade Representative's office said this plan will be the main mechanism to "coordinate trade policies and measures on critical minerals supply chains with a view to concluding a binding plurilateral agreement on trade."

The Trump administration has previously called for a preferential trade zone among allies on critical minerals.

Washington has also unveiled critical minerals action plans with Mexico and Japan, alongside a supply framework with Australia and others.

A surfeit of 'high-powered' money in the economy stokes concern about inflation upturn as reserve money more than doubled in terms of year-on-year growth as of February.Economic analysis reports

The central bank of Bangladesh has injected Tk 200 billion in printed money into

economy recently to feed government expenditure needs, economists say.

Bangladesh Bank officials, however, play down such concern as they claim the regulator has got a stronger rise in its net foreign assets (NFA), including foreign- exchange reserves, during the current fiscal year.

The increase in reserve, dubbed 'high-power money', signifies a sharp expansion of liquidity on the money market. Data released from the central bank show reserve money grew 13.35 per cent in February 2026, up from 6.16 per cent in the same month a year earlier.

The BB attributes the increase largely to a stronger rise in its net foreign assets, including foreign-exchange reserves, during the fiscal year 2025-26, compared with only a marginal increase in the previous year.

Reserve money is also referred to as the monetary base that comprises currency in circulation and commercial banks' reserves held with the central bank.

It forms the foundation of the broader money supply and can have significant implications for inflation and credit conditions, economists explain.Bangladesh economic statistics

People familiar with the developments told The Financial Express that the recent surge in the net foreign asset reflects sizeable dollar purchases by the Bangladesh Bank.

The central bank bought more than $5.50 billion from the market during the fiscal year, boosting its foreign-asset holdings and in turn expanding reserve money.

They also say inflows of foreign grants and assistance from some international lenders, for example, the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank, also contributed to the rise in net foreign assets in the state treasury.

Some economists strike a note of caution that the increase in high-powered money could add fuel to inflationary pressures if not managed carefully.

"We believe the situation remains under control," says Dr Md Ezazul Islam, director- general of Bangladesh Institute of Bank Management.

He says a potential increase in private-sector imports in the coming months could help moderate reserve-money growth.

Others appear more concerned about the inflationary impact.

"This helps explain why inflation is not easing," says Dr M Masrur Reaz, chairman and chief executive officer of Policy Exchange Bangladesh.Financial news subscription

He adds that the central bank has recently injected around Tk 200 billion in the economy, amplifying liquidity through multiplier effects and contributing to persistent price pressures.

A US naval blockade of Iranian ports is likely to squeeze Iran’s oil output in the coming weeks but claims it will throw the Islamic republic into economic free fall remain premature, analysts say.

After weeks of bombing and counter-strikes, focus has shifted to the standoff in the Strait of Hormuz, which ordinarily carries around a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas.

In response to Iran’s blockade of the strait since the start of the Middle East war, the US imposed a counter-blockade of the Islamic republic’s ports, a push to force its leaders into a compromise in peace talks.

That bid, however, looks set to fail, at least in the short term.

“If the blockade lasts for more than two or three months, it can cause more damage” to Iran, economic analyst and professor at Shahid Beheshti University in Tehran Saeed Laylaz told AFP.

“If Iran suffers any damage, the damage to the countries in the southern Persian Gulf will definitely be greater,” he added.

There’s a limit on how long Iran can bide its time, however.

Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, chief analyst at Global Risk Management said Iran “was expected to run out of storage capacity within approximately one month, but it may already be forced to shut in part of its oil production within a couple of weeks”.

‘COLLAPSING FINANCIALLY?’

Trump said Tuesday that Iran was “collapsing financially” under the blockade imposed by the US Navy on April 12, claiming that the country was “starving for cash”.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the blockade meant storage at Iran’s Kharg Island, the main export terminal through which most of the country’s crude is shipped, “will be full and the fragile Iranian oil wells will be shut in”.

Jamie Ingram, managing editor of Middle East Economic Survey (MEES), told AFP it was likely the timeline for Iran to hit its oil storage limits would be measured in “weeks rather than days”.

He added it was likely that “Iran will slightly reduce production before getting to the stage where storage constraints start to bite”.

According to analysis by oil expert Homayoun Falakshahi shared by energy intelligence firm Kpler, Iran’s crude production has already slowed since the start of the war.

Output fell by around 200,000 barrels per day in March to 3.68 million bpd and is expected to drop a further 420,000 bpd in April to about 3.43 million bpd, reflecting “the broader impact of export disruptions and refining constraints linked to the ongoing conflict,” Falakshahi said.

But Laylaz in Tehran said beyond the psychological effect of the blockade, the “real material effect has been small so far”.

Ingram said Kharg Island “shouldn’t be a particular bottleneck,” for Iran.

“This is the final storage facility used before oil is exported and Iran can divert crude oil to other facilities rather than straight to Kharg,” he said.

‘MUTUALLY ASSURED DISRUPTION’

The MEES expert also said Iran’s dependency on oil exports via Hormuz had “deepened due to the damage caused by US and Israeli strikes to other sections of the Iranian economy”.

“But Iran has also proven its ability to withstand huge oil-revenue declines during previous rounds of sanctions. I would not underestimate the regime’s resilience in this regard,” he added.

As the initial two-week truce between Iran and the US was set to expire Trump had said Tuesday he would maintain the ceasefire to allow more time for peace talks.

Iran said it welcomed the efforts by mediator Pakistan but made no other comment on Trump’s announcement, while vowing not to reopen Hormuz so long as the US blockade remains in place.

“It will take a long time before such economic pain forces Iran to compromise,” Ingram said, explaining it is “more likely economic disruption... pushes China into exerting more pressure on Iran to negotiate”.

Ali Vaez, Iran project director at the International Crisis Group, said “Iran’s economy was battered before the war, is contending with added strains caused during it, and now faces the combination of sanctions, seizures and potential strikes”.

“Iran’s leadership has previously shown a high threshold for pain even if the pressure on ordinary Iranians increases. It also likely calculates that its own efforts to subdue traffic through Hormuz act as a sort of mutually assured disruption,” he added.

Demand for rooftop solar systems across Europe has surged since the start of the Iran war, as households rush to shield themselves from soaring power prices triggered by the worst global energy disruption in history.

The ​conflict has pushed oil, gas and electricity prices sharply higher, hitting companies and households alike and accelerating efforts to find cheaper alternatives and reduce exposure to volatile energy ‌markets.

Solar is among those options, with demand from homeowners more than doubling for some industry players since the war began in late February, according to interviews with more than half a dozen energy equipment wholesalers and renewable utilities in Germany, Britain and the Netherlands.

It’s a timely boost for a technology that accounts for about a third of Europe’s total power capacity, but saw the pace of new installations dip last year for the first time in ​nearly a decade. Industry advocates argue Europe still needs to do far more to cut its reliance on imported oil and gas.

“The war has merely exposed the problem that has ​existed all along: energy dependency,” said Janik Nolden, co-founder of German privately owned solar equipment wholesaler Solarhandel24, adding European governments had been “walking into a trap”.

Solarhandel24 said net sales more than tripled in March to nearly 70 million euros ($82 million) from a year earlier, and are expected to triple again this month to ​as much as 60 million euros. The company plans to expand its workforce by about 85 people, roughly a third, to cope with demand.

To secure supply, Solarhandel24 has stocked up around half a ​million solar panels in recent weeks - a costly decision, Nolden said, but one he sees as worthwhile given the potential for net sales to rise to around 400 million euros in 2026 from about 250 million euros last year.

Germany’s Enpal is seeing a similar trend. The energy firm said orders rose 30 percent year-on-year in March to 130 million euros, while April was on track for a 33 percent increase to about 120 million euros, driven by rooftop ​solar installations.

“This is about European resilience,” said Enpal CEO and founder Mario Kohle. “We are seeing this trend in the defence sector too. Just as Europe must be able to defend itself, we must ​be able to supply our own energy.”

The financial figures from Solarhandel24 and Enpal have not been previously reported.

While aggregated installation data for Europe are not yet available, industry associations in Germany and the Netherlands have confirmed ‌a pickup ⁠in demand since the war began.

Executives say homeowners are increasingly opting for full systems combining solar panels - nearly 90 percent of which are supplied by China - with batteries and electric-vehicle wallboxes, allowing surplus power to be stored and used later.

That trend is also lifting demand for energy storage technologies, which Holland Solar’s Wijnand van Hooff says is seeing demand increases of 40 percent-50 percent.

“This cannot be explained by purely seasonal factors,” said Filip Thon of E.ON (EONGn.DE), , Europe’s largest energy network operator, which also sells rooftop solar systems. Customer requests, he said, have nearly doubled year-on-year.

A STRUCTURAL SHIFT?

Some executives also point to upcoming changes ​to Germany’s renewable energy law as an additional ​driver of demand for rooftop installations, which ⁠typically cost between 10,000 and 20,000 euros for an average family home.

The war-driven surge comes after the pace of new European solar installations slowed, in 2025, according to industry lobby SolarPower Europe, with weak residential demand a key factor following the phase-out of support schemes.

Shares in SMA Solar (S92G.DE), , the world’s third-largest ​solar inverter maker and one of the few remaining European equipment producers, have risen about 50 percent since the war began. The company has ​also reported an uptick in ⁠demand.

“We view the spike in demand as a structural shift that current geopolitical events are accelerating, not creating,” said Ed Janvrin, who heads the solar and heating business at Britain’s OVO Energy, adding April sales in the division were roughly 10 times higher than a year earlier.

Chinese solar manufacturers, however, say any war-related boost in global demand is unlikely to significantly ease the sector’s overcapacity, with China alone having enough ⁠manufacturing capacity to ​meet this year’s expected global demand nearly twice over.

Even so, the surge highlights how geopolitical shocks can rapidly reprice ​the value of renewables, said Jannik Schall, co-founder of German renewables firm 1Komma5Grad, noting that solar demand during the 2022 energy crisis had been even stronger.

“The recurring energy crises prove the renewables sector right.”

Stocks closed the week marginally higher, supported by bargain hunting in beaten-down equities, even as record-high fuel price hikes and persistent Middle East tensions cast a shadow over investor sentiment.

The benchmark indices managed to eke out gains as selective accumulation of undervalued stocks by tactical investors helped cushion broader market weakness.

Analysts noted that while geopolitical uncertainties continued to cloud the near-term outlook, resilient participation signalled underlying confidence in the market's medium-term trajectory.

The positive close came despite a significant headwind: the government on Saturday announced steep increases in fuel prices, pushing them to historic highs. Diesel was raised by Tk 15 per litre, octane by Tk 20, petrol by Tk 19, and kerosene by Tk 18, a move expected to exert inflationary pressure across supply chains and household budgets.

Despite energy price hike, the opportunistic investors engaged in bargain hunting while closely monitoring developments around the Middle East tensions.

The market opened the week on a cautious note, with the first two sessions closing lower as traders digested the fuel price shock and lingering uncertainty surrounding Middle East negotiations. However, sentiment pivoted mid-week following early indications of progress in ceasefire discussions.

Of the five trading sessions, the final three closed in positive territory, underpinned by renewed interest in high-quality large caps. Selective positioning in December-closing companies ahead of expected earnings announcements also supported the recovery.

The benchmark DSEX index of the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) finally rose 42 points or 0.79 per cent to close at 5,299, after remaining flat the previous week.

The DS30 index, comprising blue-chip stocks, gained 25 points to close at 2,015, while the DSES index, tracking Shariah-compliant securities, edged up 0.21 point to 1,067.

Analysts said any tangible progress in US-Iran negotiations could restore investor confidence and trigger a short-term rally.

According to EBL Securities, the market demonstrated resilience with sustained two-way participation throughout the week. Still, investors largely maintained a cautious stance amid evolving macroeconomic and geopolitical developments.

The ongoing corporate earnings season is expected to play a key role in determining near-term market direction. Strong earnings, especially from banking and pharmaceutical sectors, could attract fresh investment, said the stockbroker.

Selective gains in blue-chip stocks, including BRAC Bank, City Bank, Asiatic Laboratories, Eastern Bank and Power Grid Company of Bangladesh, largely contributed to the index rise, jointly adding more than 27 points to the benchmark index.Bangladesh economic statistics

Market liquidity improved notably during the week. Total turnover on the DSE stood at Tk 45.16 billion, up from Tk 32.7 billion in the previous week, aided by an additional trading session.

Accordingly, average daily turnover rose 10 per cent to Tk 9.03 billion, compared to Tk 8.18 billion a week earlier.

Sector-wise, the engineering sector dominated turnover with 17 per cent share, followed by textile (13.4 per cent) and general insurance (12.2 per cent).

Market breadth remained positive, with 194 issues advancing, 168 declining and 35 remaining unchanged out of 390 traded securities. Among sectors, general insurance posted the highest gain of 5.8 per cent, followed by power, telecom, food, non-bank financial institutions and banking.

City Bank topped the turnover chart with shares worth Tk 1.6 billion changing hands, followed by Dominage Steel, Acme Pesticides, Khan Brothers and Summit Alliance Port.

The Chittagong Stock Exchange also closed the week slightly higher. Its All Shares Price Index (CASPI) rose 70 points to 14,832, while the Selective Categories Index (CSCX) gained 52 points to close at 9,093.

The port city bourse recorded a turnover of Tk 1.46 billion, with 48.4 million shares and mutual fund units traded during the week.

Reinstating the package-VAT system to bring marginal businesses under the tax net is now under active consideration of the government, as compliance with the existing value-added-tax regime remains weak, sources say.

Officials at the National Board of Revenue (NBR) say the move is being made targeting the small and informal businesses that struggle to maintain proper accounts under the current VAT framework.

Package VAT is a fixed monthly amount paid by businesses, typically through their trade associations. The system was abolished in June 2019 following the introduction of the new VAT and Supplementary Duty Act and the VAT Online Project, which aimed to digitise tax collection.

However, NBR officials now acknowledge that bringing businesses in growth centres and retail hubs onto the VAT net has proven difficult, leading to significant revenue losses from the large informal sector.

The existing system, too, has been criticised for giving "discretionary powers" to field-level VAT officials to assess sales and determine payable value-added tax-- often resulting in harassment and allegations of corruption.

"We are overhauling the VAT law to make compliance easier for small and medium enterprises," NBR Chairman Abdur Rahman Khan told members of the Economic Reporters Forum (ERF) at a pre-budget meeting with Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury. Personalfinance advice

"We have not yet been able to effectively implement the standard 15-percent VAT rate. Now we are compiling data on marginal and new SMEs to bring them under a fixed VAT system," he says.

The VAT base remains significantly smaller than the income-tax base, with only about 0.8 million VAT-registered entities compared to 12.8 million income taxpayers, Mr Khan points out the mismatch.

Business leaders have welcomed the proposed move but urged caution in setting the VAT amount.

Md Zahirul Haque Bhuiya, Secretary-General of the Bangladesh Dokan Malik Samity, also acknowledges that the government currently earns little revenue from sectors previously covered under package VAT. Bangladeshtravel guideBangladesh market analysis

However, he warns that excessive rates could discourage compliance.

"When the package VAT was increased sharply -- from Tk 4,200 to Tk 28,000 annually -- many small businesses dropped out of the system," he says .

Efforts to digitise VAT collection through Electronic Cash Registers (ECR) and the Electronic Fiscal Device Management System (EFDMS) have also failed to significantly improve revenue mobilisation from small businesses, he adds.

NBR data show that package -VAT collection had declined steadily before its abolition.

Revenue stood at Tk 23.81 billion in the fiscal year 2015-16 but dropped to Tk 18.91 billion in FY2016-17 after the rate was doubled. Collection had reached a rock-bottom Tk 11.75 billion until February of FY2018-19.

Under the previous system, VAT was fixed based on business location. Annual rates were set at Tk 28,000 for Dhaka and Chattogram city corporations, Tk 20,000 for other city corporations, Tk 14,000 for district towns, and Tk 7,000 for other areas.

Earlier rates ranged between Tk 3,600 and Tk 14,000 before being doubled in FY2016-17.

Business owners allege that corruption among field-level officials also contributed to the decline in compliance.

Solaiman Parsee, a trader in Old Dhaka, says many businesses were willing to pay VAT but were "discouraged by officials seeking bribes".

"A section of VAT inspectors often persuades traders not to pay the official amount and instead demands informal payments," he says about the deprivation of state exchequer by such taxmen who line their own pockets.

He argues that the fixed VAT is not burdensome, noting that the highest annual rate translates to around Tk 76.71 per day.

He also suggests making Business Identification Number (BIN) mandatory to prevent misuse of the system.

However, some experts would like to dislike the reintroduction of package VAT over again.

Dr Abdur Rouf, chairman of the VAT Forum, says the government should prioritise helping small businesses grow instead of imposing fixed taxes.

He also recommends scrapping the turnover tax, arguing that it generates minimal revenue while adding to compliance burdens.

He opines that rather than introducing package VAT, "it shall be much expedient to remove the existing Turnover Tax since collection of TT is less than one -core taka annually, a very insignificant amount".

"Then a good number of SMEs shall go beyond VAT net but government will lose nothing."

He further suggests reduction in trade VAT to 3-5 per cent and abolition of Advance Tax at import stage which is trade VAT in other words.

He thinks introduction of package VAT will seriously undermine the objective of standard VAT and give rise to manifold complications at the field level without any significant impact on VAT collection.

Massive deregulation across major financial sectors of the "over-regulated" country is expected to be reflected in the coming national budget being crafted by the newly elected government.

Finance and Planning Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury dropped a broad hint at such changes on Saturday during an exchange- of- views meeting with editors of print, electronic and online media on the upcoming budget."Bangladesh is an overregulated country and needs deregulation," he says.Bangladesh economic statistics

The meeting, held at the Finance Division, was attended by Finance Secretary Dr Khairuzzaman Mozumder, Bangladesh Bank Governor Md Mostaqur Rahman and Financial Institutions Division (FID) Secretary Nazma Mobarek, among others.

The finance minister says the government is also considering the securitisation of public-infrastructure assets to mobilise funds for new projects.

"The Jamuna Bridge now carries no liabilities. It can be securitised, and the proceeds can be used for other development projects," he explains the new government's financial ideas.

On the size of the budget, the economic pointsman of the government headed by BNP chief Tarique Rahman says a larger outlay is necessary to support economic growth and attract investment.

Addressing demographic challenges, the finance minister stresses the need for increased investment in health and education to harness the country's demographic dividend.

He mentions that out-of-pocket healthcare costs remain high in the country, and for this reason, the government aims to improve the healthcare system.

"Once people become technically skilled, they will find employment both at home and abroad," he says while arguing increased allocation for the education.

The minister reiterates that the government is opposed to printing money. On the capital market, Mr. Chowdhury says the government has significant plans to strengthen the sector.Economic analysis reports

"You will see changes and development in the capital market soon," he says, adding that well-reputed and structured companies have been reluctant to float shares on the market as they believe that this is a "casino".

He hopes deregulation and greater participation by institutional investors could help improve market conditions.

On the recovery of laundered funds, Bangladesh Bank Governor Mr. Rahman says efforts are under way to retrieve such assets.

"We want to ensure that these funds cannot be consumed by plunderers," he tells the press in a strongly worded resolve of the regulator.

He warns that news of money printing could negatively affect the country's credit ratings, increasing borrowing costs for both the government and the private sector.

The new governor rules that fluctuations in government accounts held with the central bank are normal.

FID Secretary Ms. Mobarek says a taskforce has been formed to recover siphoned-off money. "The process is complex."

National Board of Revenue (NBR) Chairman Md Abdur Rahman Khan tells the meet efforts would be intensified to boost tax mobilisation, particularly through value-added tax (VAT).World news updates

He says although Bangladesh has over 12.8 million Taxpayer Identification Numbers (TINs), only about 5.0 million returns are filed.

"We will issue notices to those who have not submitted their tax returns."

He also says that corporate tax rates for both listed and non-listed companies have been reduced over the years from as high as 50 per cent.

Speaking at the programme, The Financial Express Editor, Shamsul Huq Zahid, points out that Bangladesh is facing weak revenue mobilisation, which is further strained by the Middle East crisis.

"In this context, the plan to raise the budget size to around Tk 9.0 trillion will be challenging," he says, cautioning that increased bank borrowing and 'high-powered money' could fuel inflation.

Channel I Head of News Mr. Shykh Seraj stresses the need for greater investment in agricultural research to ensure food security.

Speaking at another event, Finance Minister Amir Khosru has said the government plans to step up spending on health and education to fully harness the country's demographic dividend. A large share of the increase will go for vocational education to build skilled manpower, boost employment and raise remittance inflows.Bangladesh economic statistics

He says the government also aims to tap the "longevity dividend," noting that older citizens can continue contributing to productivity. However, higher allocations may face challenges linked to the inheritance economy.

The minister made the remarks at the pre-budget discussion organised by the Ministry of Finance on the day, attended by members of the Economic Reporters Forum (ERF) and journalists covering the ministry.

He says the economy must recover from past damage caused by money printing and heavy borrowing from local banks. "Such policies," he warns, "drive up interest rates and crowd out private investment, undermining sustainable growth."

The current government, he adds, is committed to avoiding inflationary financing through high-powered money and to easing pressure on the private sector-principles that guide its economic policy.

He alleges that past "patronage politics" concentrated economic power in a few hands, pushing the economy towards oligarchic control. The government is now prioritising the "democratisation of the economy" to reverse this trend.Financial news subscription

To ensure inclusive growth, he says, steps are being taken to empower women directly through the "family card" programme. As primary managers of household finances, women's access to funds can improve both savings and investment outcomes.

The minister stresses expanding primary healthcare to reduce out-of-pocket expenses, which erode living standards. Better access to basic care, he says, effectively raises real incomes.

He describes SMEs and startups as the backbone of the economy, noting that SMEs remain the largest source of employment. Efforts are also underway to integrate rural cottage industries, artisans and the creative economy into the mainstream.

Initiatives to upgrade product design, branding and marketing for rural artisans are being rolled out to help them reach global markets -- boosting both jobs and exports.

He adds that sectors such as sports, culture, theatre, film and music are gaining policy attention as emerging contributors to GDP.

On current challenges, he says the private sector is under strain from weak banking discipline, currency depreciation and persistent inflation, with many industries underperforming.

Raising the tax-to-GDP ratio remains "very difficult" under current conditions, he notes, as stronger business activity is essential for higher revenue collection, though efforts are ongoing.Economic analysis reports

He has also highlighted energy security, with plans to cut import dependence by exploring domestic resources and expanding renewable-energy use.

On market management, he says prices cannot be controlled through enforcement alone. Markets should function based on demand and supply, supported by stronger supply chains and lower business costs.

He concludes that deregulation will be key to attracting investment, as excessive barriers continue to deter investors.

Budget-support funding from foreign financiers seems drying up as only US$750 million has so far been confirmed although the financial year nears end with the economy facing unanticipated shocks amid global crises. Economic analysis reports

The country faces severe fund shortages caused due to heightened subsidy pressure amid the ongoing Mideast mayhem.

Finance Ministry officials say at least two major development partners have deferred talks on providing budget-support credit under regular arrangement and so they are now pursuing the financiers for lending the money in emergency balance-of-payments support.

According to them, the only development partner having confirmed budget support worth $750 million on completion of negotiations is the Asian Development Bank (ADB). The proposal will now be placed in board meeting early May, and if passed, the loan agreement will be signed when ADB President Masato Kanda visits Dhaka late next month.

Confronting such a situation at the very outset, the new government is also trying to secure an additional $250 million from the ADB to finance the additional spending incurred due to the fallouts from war and conflicts in the Middle East that force buying fuel oils and gas at excessive prices.

Sources have confirmed that the World Bank has rejected a government proposal for $250 million in budget-support credit under regular arrangement. Now the finance officials are pursing the World Bank to provide some $500 million under emergency support to meet the deficit being created under war's domino effect.

Also, the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) has deferred a planned budget-support programme until next fiscal year, "leaving nothing for this fiscal year", sources say.

A JICA team on April 29th is scheduled to meet with finance ministry officials to discuss financial assistances. Sources says the finance ministry officials may request the agency team to provide some $500 to $700 million as emergency assistance from the $10-billion fund Japan has created to help its Asian neighbours whose economy is reeling from severe crisis caused by the Iran war.

Sources say the government is also in talks with the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) for $700 million worth of budget support. However, the confirmation of AIIB financing will depend on consent from the co-financer.

The finance officials are not sure until now whether the AIIB credit will be finally available or not within this fiscal year that expires in little over two months.

Finance and Planning Minister Amir Khasru Mahmud Chowdhury recently visited Washington, DC, to attend the Spring Meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank Group.

The IMF has yet to give confirmation as to whether two due tranches of an ongoing credit programme, amounting to $1.3 billion, will be released for Bangladesh within this fiscal year, 2025-26.Bangladesh economic statistics

As such, the finance minister, in meetings with top officials of the IMF and the World Bank in Washington, requested emergency assistance worth $1.0 billion each from them to offset the energy shocks of an unprecedented scale amid the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian ports.

"All the development partners of Bangladesh are very positive to support us at this crisis moment," the minister told reporters after return from the United States. However, he wouldn't confirm how much assistance was secured so far.

"We are discussing with them emergency assistance," he says. In fiscal year 2024-25, Bangladesh had received around $3.0 billion as budget support from the development partners.

Dr. Zahid Hussain, a former lead economist at the World Bank's Dhaka office, told The Financial Express that getting budget-support credit from development partners in many aspects depends on government's "comfort position" with the IMF, which remains absent for a long.

"We need to cut budgetary spending as much as possible to face the crisis," he says, adding that containing spending will help lower import and thus the requirement of foreign currency will lessen.

He suggests maintaining exchange-rate flexibility and ensuring that no gap remains between domestic and international energy prices.

Three years after launch and with 99 percent of its budget unspent, a nearly Tk 1,700 crore customs modernisation project is set to be presented to the Executive Committee of the National Economic Council (Ecnec) today with a proposal to extend its deadline and raise costs by nearly 40 percent.

The Customs Modernisation and Infrastructure Development project was launched in April 2023 with World Bank (WB) financing to modernise key customs offices, including Chattogram, Benapole and Dhaka.

It was scheduled for completion by March 2026. As of June 2025, only Tk 5.14 crore had been spent of the original Tk 1,686 crore budget, of which Tk 1,475 crore was a WB loan.

Although Tk 113 crore has been allocated in the current fiscal year, the government is now seeking to extend the project’s duration and increase its cost.

A senior planning ministry official said a revised proposal has been listed for presentation at today’s scheduled Ecnec meeting.

The proposal, seen by The Daily Star, recommends increasing the project cost by 39 percent to Tk 2,344 crore, with the WB loan increasing by 34 percent, or Tk 507 crore. It also proposes extending the deadline to June 30, 2028.

The proposal attributes the cost increase to revisions made at the detailed design stage, after the initial estimate was based on conceptual design.

The earlier exchange rate assumption of Tk 102 per US dollar has been revised to Tk 122. Rising construction rates and higher VAT and tax rates have also contributed to the escalation.

At present, Dhaka Customs handles large volumes of air freight and courier consignments, Chattogram Customs manages 90 percent of the country’s import-export activity, and Benapole Customs oversees the bulk of land trade.

The project will introduce modern infrastructure and technology at these offices to speed up import-export operations, reduce tax evasion, and strengthen the detection of money laundering.

Planned works include construction of office buildings, laboratories, warehouses and residential facilities at Chattogram Customs House, as well as a new building for the Customs, Excise and VAT Training Academy. Baseline, midline and endline time-release studies will be conducted at major customs stations.

A tariff policy implementation plan will also be prepared, the existing tariff structure reviewed, and the feasibility of tariff reforms assessed using ASYCUDA World, National Single Window and Automated Risk Management System software.

Prime Bank PLC has signed a $30 million term-loan agreement with the Opec Fund for International Development (Opec Fund), an international development finance institution.

The strategic collaboration is expected to significantly enhance Prime Bank’s capacity to support critical trade finance requirements across the country’s small and medium enterprise (SME), agriculture, and corporate sectors.

Faisal Rahman, chief executive officer (current charge) of the bank, and Abdulhamid Alkhalifa, president of the Opec Fund, signed the agreement in Dhaka recently, according to a press release.

Commenting on the partnership, Alkhalifa said, “MSMEs and agribusinesses play a vital role in jobs, food security, and economic resilience in Bangladesh, yet many still struggle to access trade finance.”

“Our partnership with Prime Bank will help unlock new opportunities, diversify exports, and strengthen the country’s private sector. This loan builds on our long-standing collaboration and reflects our commitment to inclusive, sustainable growth,” he added.

Rahman said, “We are delighted to enter into this strategic partnership with the Opec Fund. The three-year expandable term-loan facility will meaningfully enhance our capacity to support the trade financing needs of our valued clients.”

“This collaboration comes at a critical time when businesses are navigating uncertainties in the global economic landscape,” he added.

The Opec Fund’s support reinforces our relationship and reflects its strong confidence in Prime Bank’s governance, operational resilience, and future ambitions in supporting the national economy, the release added.

The facility, structured as a term-loan, will be provided to Prime Bank’s offshore banking unit by the Opec Fund.

It carries an initial tenor of one year, with a provision for extension up to three years.

This financing is expected to strengthen Prime Bank’s trade finance portfolio, providing much-needed stability and support to Bangladeshi businesses navigating complex global economic headwinds.

US consumer sentiment fell to a record ​low in April as households shrugged off a ceasefire in the war with Iran, remaining focused on the inflation ‌fallout from the conflict.

The University of Michigan's Surveys of Consumers said its Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to a final reading of 49.8 this month, an all-time low. The reading was a slight improvement, however, from the 47.6 reported earlier in the month.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index at 48.0. It was at 53.3 ​in March. The deterioration in sentiment was across political party affiliation, and among consumers with investments in the stock market.

The Iran war ​has disrupted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, boosting the price of oil, and ultimately the cost of gasoline ⁠and diesel. Prices for other commodities, including fertilizers, petrochemicals and aluminum, which will soon impact consumers, have also surged.

Tehran effectively closed the strait ​after the start of the war on February 28. President Donald Trump this week indefinitely extended the ceasefire with Iran, though a US Navy blockade ​of Iranian ports remained in effect.

"The Iran conflict appears to influence consumer views primarily through shocks to gasoline and potentially other prices," said Joanne Hsu, the director of the Surveys of Consumers. "In contrast, military and diplomatic developments that do not lift supply constraints or lower energy prices are unlikely to buoy consumers."

GASOLINE AND DIESEL ​PRICES INCREASE

The national average retail gasoline price has hovered above $4 a gallon this month, with diesel well above $5 a gallon, data from the US ​Energy Information Administration showed.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll on Friday showed a clear majority of Americans blamed Trump for surging gasoline prices, which are weighing on his Republican Party ahead ‌of November's ⁠congressional midterm elections.

Expensive diesel is likely to raise prices of goods transported by road. Economists said while the correlation between consumer sentiment and spending was weak, they expected households, especially lower-income groups, to scale back on consumption.

"We expect the hit to real disposable income growth from higher gas prices will slow consumption growth," said Grace Zwemmer, a US economist at Oxford Economics. "The impact will be mostly felt by low- and middle-income households, ​since a larger share of their ​overall spending goes toward gasoline."

The ⁠survey's measure of consumer expectations for inflation over the next year jumped to 4.7 percent this month from 3.8 percent in March. April's reading exceeded levels that prevailed in 2024 and remained well above the 2.3 percent-3.0 percent range seen ​in the two years before the COVID-19 pandemic.

Consumers' expectations for inflation over the next five years climbed ​to 3.5 percent from 3.2 percent ⁠last month.

Higher inflation expectations added to a survey from S&P Global on Thursday showing a measure of prices charged by businesses for their goods and services jumped in April to the highest level in nearly four years in strengthening financial market expectations that the Federal Reserve would probably not cut ⁠interest rates ​this year.

"More pain will come as higher transportation costs are passed along for food, ​appliances, toys and every other item that travels on a ship, car or plane," said Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union. "Sentiment won't improve until the Strait of ​Hormuz is open and there is a permanent end to the conflict."

Raising tax rates on high-income earners without expanding the tax net could backfire, potentially encouraging money laundering and capital flight, the Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce and Industry (MCCI) said today.

“Raising tax rates on high-income taxpayers may discourage compliant taxpayers and increase the risks of tax evasion or capital flight,” said MCCI President Kamran T Rahman while presenting budget proposals for FY2026-27 at a pre-budget discussion with the National Board of Revenue (NBR) in Dhaka.

“In the context of regional competition, it is essential to keep tax rates reasonable. Expanding the tax base, rather than increasing tax rates, could be a more effective and sustainable solution for boosting revenue,” he added.

The chamber said that maintaining a rational and predictable tax regime is essential to retain investment and ensure compliance in a region marked by growing tax competition.

Instead of raising rates, the trade body recommended broadening the tax base to bring more individuals and businesses, particularly from the informal sector, under the tax net.

Currently, despite having more than one crore registered taxpayers with electronic tax identification numbers (e-TINs), fewer than half regularly file returns, pointing to a structural weakness in the system.

The MCCI proposed introducing a symbolic minimum tax, ranging from Tk 100 to Tk 1,000 annually, along with a simplified one-page digital return-filing system via mobile applications.

"This would encourage first-time taxpayers to enter the formal system and gradually build a culture of compliance," Rahman said.

The chamber also flagged concerns over the effective tax rate faced by businesses, noting that multiple layers of advance income tax (AIT), tax deducted at source (TDS), and various conditionalities often push the actual burden to as high as 40–50 percent, far exceeding statutory rates.

Such distortions reduce the benefits of nominal tax cuts and create disincentives for formal business operations, it said.

MCCI urged policymakers to move towards a simplified, income-based taxation system, reduce conditionalities tied to corporate tax rates, and accelerate digital integration across income tax, VAT, and customs platforms.

It also called for easing compliance requirements, such as the Proof of Submission of Return (PSR), rationalising VAT rates, and ensuring faster, automated input tax credit mechanisms.

For small and medium enterprises (SMEs), which form the backbone of employment and industrial growth, the chamber recommended targeted tax relief, lower turnover taxes, and reduced duties on raw materials to enhance competitiveness.

The MCCI said that revenue policy should balance mobilisation and facilitation, warning that overly aggressive taxation could prove counterproductive in an already fragile economic environment.