The dollar was near a 10‑month high on Monday and heading for its biggest monthly gain since last July ​as mixed signals from Iran and the United States dimmed hopes of a possible quick end to the ‌Middle East conflict.

US President Donald Trump said that Iran's new leaders have been "very reasonable", as more US troops arrived in the region and Tehran warned it will not accept humiliation.

The yen hovered near the key 160 per‑dollar level, after hitting its weakest since July 2024 when Tokyo last intervened to shore up the currency, while ​the euro found some support from expectations of European Central Bank rate hikes.

Markets have been rattled this month after the Iran conflict effectively ​shut the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for about a fifth of global oil and gas flows, driving Brent ⁠crude toward a record monthly rise.

The dollar has benefited from its safe‑haven status since early March, with higher oil prices hurting Japan ​and the euro zone but insulating the United States as a net crude exporter.

The US dollar index was roughly unchanged at 100.19. It ​hit 100.54 in mid-March, its highest level since May 2025, and was on track for its biggest monthly rise since July 2025.

Barclays said dollar sentiment was approaching "max bullish" levels on its index, according to traditional gauges including growth proxies, rate differentials and beta indicators.

"The playbook is to sell rallies in risk and ​maintain volatility hedges," said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone.

Markets will closely watch US jobs data later in the week, which could ​affect expectations for the Federal Reserve policy path.

"In the eye of the storm, this week delivers a crucial run of US labour market data," said ‌Bob Savage, ⁠head of markets macro strategy at BNY.

"Given the weak February jobs report and a month of conflict in the Middle East, we’re keen to learn how the jobs situation has responded," he added.

Iran’s annual inflation rate rose to 50.6 percent by mid-March, up three percentage points from the previous month, the country’s official statistics centre said on Sunday.

“The inflation rate for the twelve months ending in Esfand (from February 20 to March 20) reached 50.6 percent,”the centre said in a statement carried by the official IRNA news agency.

The rate had stood at 47.5 percent in the previous month, covering the period from January 21 to February 19.

The rise in prices comes with Iran at war with the United States and Israel since February 28, when strikes that killed the country’s supreme leader triggered a conflict that has since spread across the Middle East.

On March 20, Iran marked the start of the Nowruz holidays, the Persian New Year.

More than 1,300 ongoing projects approved by the Executive Committee of the National Economic Council (Ecnec) under previous governments are now under review, Finance and Planning Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury has said.

He made the remarks while responding to a question during the question-and-answer session of the first sitting of the 13th Jatiya Sangsad this afternoon (30 March).

The minister said around 500 of these projects have made less than 10% progress so far.

"Many of the projects involve concerns of waste and corruption, which is why they have been brought under review," he said.

The projects currently being undertaken aim to strengthen the rural economy, he added.

Bangladesh Bank Governor Md Mostaqur Rahman has said he expects to receive funds from the finance ministry in July this year to liquidate six non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs).

He made the remarks at a meeting with senior journalists at the central bank on Sunday. "We expect that the funds required to liquidate the six financial institutions will be received from the finance ministry in July this year," he said.

A senior central bank official told TBS, "The finance division has informed us that the money will be released in two phases. In the first phase, Tk2,600 crore will be provided. Then, by June, another Tk3,000 crore will be released in the second phase."

He added, "As soon as we receive the first tranche, we will appoint administrators to the institutions concerned. Their primary task will be to repay depositors in the private sector. We will first settle individual depositors' funds and then apply to the court for liquidation of the institutions."

Earlier, on 27 January, the Bangladesh Bank board decided to liquidate six institutions. In the same meeting, three institutions were given three to six months' time.

The six NBFIs are FAS Finance, Premier Leasing, Fareast Finance, Aviva Finance, People's Leasing, and International Leasing.

The three institutions given time are Bangladesh Industrial Finance Company, GSP Finance Company, and Prime Finance and Investment Limited.

Currently, there are 35 non-bank financial institutions in the country, of which 20 have been identified as distressed by the central bank.

These 20 institutions have total loans amounting to Tk25,808 crore, of which Tk21,462 crore – about 83.16% – are defaulted. In contrast, the value of collateral stands at only Tk6,899 crore.

On the other hand, the 15 relatively healthy institutions have a default loan rate of just 7.31%. Last year, they made a profit of Tk1,465 crore and have a capital surplus of Tk6,189 crore.

Deposits in the 20 troubled institutions total Tk22,127 crore, of which net individual deposits amount to around Tk4,971 crore. The central bank believes that this amount may be required initially to support the liquidation and restructuring process.

Oil prices extended gains on Monday, with Brent headed for a record monthly rise, after Yemeni Houthis launched their first attacks on Israel over the weekend, widening the US-Israel war with Iran in the Middle East.

Brent crude futures jumped $2.43, or 2.16%, to $115 a barrel by 0342 GMT after settling 4.2% higher on Friday.

US West Texas Intermediate was at $101.50 a barrel, up $1.86, or 1.87%, following a 5.5% gain in the previous session.

"The market has all but discounted the prospect of a negotiated end to the war, Trump's claims of ongoing 'direct and indirect' talks with Iran notwithstanding, and is bracing for a sharp escalation in military hostilities, which is a bullish signal for crude, with huge uncertainties on the timing and nature of the outcome," said Vandana Hari, founder of oil market analysis provider Vanda Insights.

US President Donald Trump said the US and Iran have been meeting "directly and indirectly" and that Iran's new leaders have been "very reasonable", as more US troops arrived in the region, while the Israeli military said on Monday it is attacking the Iranian government's infrastructure throughout Tehran.

Brent has soared 59% this month, the steepest monthly jump, exceeding gains seen during the 1990 Gulf War, after the Iran conflict effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, a conduit for a fifth of the world's oil and gas supplies.

The war, launched on 28 February with US and Israeli strikes on Iran, has spread across the Middle East, with Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis on Saturday launching their first attacks on Israel since the start of the conflict, raising concern about shipping lanes around the Arabian Peninsula and the Red Sea.

"The conflict is no longer concentrated in the Persian Gulf and around the Strait of Hormuz, but now extends into the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb — one of the world's most crucial chokepoints for crude and refined product flows," JP Morgan analysts led by Natasha Kaneva said in a note.

Saudi crude exports re-directed from the Strait of Hormuz to the Yanbu port in the Red Sea reached 4.658 million barrels per day last week, data from analytics firm Kpler showed.

If exports from Yanbu were disrupted, Saudi oil would need to pivot towards Egypt's Suez-Mediterranean (SUMED) pipeline to the Mediterranean, JP Morgan analysts said.

Attacks in the region escalated over the weekend and damaged Oman's Salalah terminal despite efforts to start ceasefire talks.

Iran said it was ready to respond to a US ground attack, accusing Washington on Sunday of preparing a land assault even as it sought negotiations.

Pakistan's Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar said they had covered possible ways to bring an early and permanent end to the war in the region as well as potential US-Iran talks in Islamabad.

South Korea's March exports probably rose at the strongest pace in nearly five years on a boom in chip demand fuelled by artificial intelligence investment, although the Iran war was set to drive up imports and inflation, a Reuters poll showed on Monday.

Exports from Asia's fourth-largest economy, a bellwether for global trade, were projected to have risen 44.9% from a year earlier, according to a median forecast of 11 economists.

That would be faster than the 28.7% rise in February and the strongest since May 2021. It would also mark the 10th consecutive month of year-on-year gains.

"Semiconductor prices are continuing to rise sharply on robust demand for memory chips," said Chun Kyu-yeon, an economist at Hana Securities, expecting this year's trade surpluses at record levels.

In the first 20 days of this month, exports rose 50.4%, as semiconductor sales surged 163.9%. Shipments to the US and China rose 57.8% and 69.0%, respectively, while those to the European Union were up 6.6%.

"However, due to the impact of high oil prices, import growth will also be higher than previously projected," said Park Sang-hyun, an economist at iM Securities. "It is expected that there will be some disruption to shipments to the Middle East."

In Monday's monthly survey, imports were forecast to have risen 18.0% in March from a year earlier, after growing 7.5% in February. That would mark the biggest jump since September 2022.

The median forecast for the country's monthly trade balance stood at $21.2 billion, wider than $15.4 billion in the previous month and a record high.

Consumer inflation probably accelerated in March to 2.4%, the fastest pace in four months. Inflation was 2.0% in February.

South Korea is scheduled to report trade figures for March on Wednesday, 1 April, at 9 am (0000 GMT).

The 14th Ministerial Conference (MC14) of the World Trade Organization (WTO) concluded early yesterday with no significant agreements, except promises to continue working towards consensus on disputed issues among member countries.

The four-day conference, which began on March 26, saw nearly 2,000 officials, including more than 90 ministers, debate key topics such as the moratorium on customs duties for electronic transmissions and broader WTO reform.

Originally scheduled to end on Sunday, the meeting stretched past midnight as ministers tried to bridge gaps on major issues.

DEADLOCK ON E-COMMERCE MORATORIUM

The WTO’s moratorium on customs duties for electronic transmissions expired yesterday after nearly three decades. Negotiations in Yaoundé continued late into the night but concluded without a final agreement.

Diplomats worked to reconcile differences between Brazil, which initially sought a two-year extension and later proposed a four-year extension with a mid-term review, and the United States, which pushed for a permanent moratorium to protect major companies such as Amazon and Apple from digital taxation.

A draft proposal for a four-year extension with a one-year sunset buffer, extending the moratorium to 2031, was also discussed but not agreed upon, reports Reuters.

Developing countries, including India, opposed a lengthy extension, arguing that the moratorium denies them potential tax revenue that could be reinvested domestically. Some 66 nations, however, agreed to an interim arrangement pending ratification.

WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said, “The e-commerce moratorium had expired, meaning countries could apply duties on electronic goods such as digital downloads and streaming. But we hope to be able to restore the moratorium and Brazil and the US were trying to reach agreement on it. They need more time and we didn’t have the time here.”

Cameroon Trade Minister Luc Magloire Mbarga Atangana, chair of MC14, added that WTO talks would continue in Geneva, expected in May.

Britain’s Business and Trade Secretary Peter Kyle called the failure to reach a collective decision in Yaoundé a “major setback for global trade.”

REFORM TALKS MAKE PARTIAL PROGRESS

Ministers and delegates made some progress drafting a plan for broader WTO reform, though no final agreements were reached, reports AFP. They were tasked with creating an action plan to revitalise the organisation, weakened by geopolitical tensions, stalled negotiations, and rising protectionism.

A draft reform roadmap outlining timelines and key issues, seen by Reuters, was close to agreement before the talks ended. Completion of any reform deal, however, will depend on resolving recurring issues, such as improving consensus-based decision-making and extending trade benefits to developing countries. Ministers also fell short of expectations on agriculture and other areas.

Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala welcomed progress in discussions on WTO reform, fisheries subsidies, and other issues.

KEY OUTCOMES

The WTO announced that ministers agreed to continue negotiations on fisheries subsidies, aiming to present recommendations at the 15th Ministerial Conference for comprehensive rules.

Two decisions were also adopted that had been previously endorsed in Geneva: improving the integration of small economies into the multilateral trading system, and enhancing the implementation of special and differential treatment provisions under the Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures (SPS) and Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT) agreements.

The WTO director-general confirmed that members would return to Geneva with drafts of the Yaoundé Ministerial Declaration on WTO Reform and Work Plan, the Ministerial Decision on Electronic Commerce, the Ministerial Decision on TRIPS Non-Violation and Situation Complaints, and the LDC package.

As energy stress spreads across Southeast Asia, governments across the region are asking China to deliver on its pledges of closer energy security cooperation by freeing up now-banned exports ​of fertiliser and fuel.

But so far China has offered only vague statements and has yet to even publicly acknowledge the export bans reported by Reuters and others as it focuses ‌on insulating its own economy from the war in Iran.

Analysts don’t expect that to change, pointing to the tension between China’s stated ambition to be a bigger player in regional affairs and the realpolitik of its commitment to keep its own economy outpacing global growth.

China is the world’s second largest fertiliser exporter and also a large supplier of fuel. For many countries in Asia including Bangladesh, the Philippines and even Australia, Chinese imports are a major source of supply, now cut off by its export bans.

Dhaka earlier this month asked China to honour existing fuel contracts, while Thai diplomats will engage Chinese counterparts to keep fertiliser shipments from China flowing if needed, officials in Bangkok said.

In Malaysia, officials said last week the Chinese export ban would worsen fertiliser rationing, including in its oil palm industry, the world’s second-largest, and add a further blow on top of the war in Iran.

Even the Philippines has sought assistance despite the two countries’ disputes over the South China Sea.

On March 17, the Philippines minister of agriculture visited China’s embassy in Manila and said China had agreed to continue fertiliser shipments. Beijing’s one-sentence readout said only that they had discussed agriculture.

The same day Australia, which imported a ​third of its jet fuel from China last year, said it was discussing jet fuel exports with Beijing.

“China may offer some ceremonial assistance, but it’s highly unlikely, if not wholly improbable, that it will share any substantive amount of its food, energy, or other reserves with other countries,” said Eric Olander, co-founder of the China-Global South Project.

In addition, we’re talking about the impact of the war in the Middle East.

In fact, analysts said Chinese policymakers were likely quietly congratulating themselves on the strategic foresight to begin stockpiling since the early 2000s, a policy that may have seemed excessive in peacetime but now looks decidedly practical.

People’s Daily, the Communist Party’s flagship newspaper, trumpeted China’s relative energy security in an editorial earlier this month ​and said the country’s foresight meant China held the “energy lifeline” in its own hands.

China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not immediately respond to questions from Reuters.

‘A TRIED AND TESTED PLAYBOOK’

China’s flagship Belt and Road infrastructure initiative ‌has seen world leaders regularly congregate in Beijing to discuss ‘win-win’ cooperation but with the region now short on fuel and fertiliser, Southeast Asian capitals are instead looking for replacements from the likes of Russia.

“China won’t want to create expectations it can’t sustain. Beijing has no desire to be a regional energy backstop for an indefinite period of disruption,” according to Ruby Osman, a senior policy adviser at the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change.

Beijing will likely stick to its tried-and-tested playbook: imposing sharp, broad curbs on energy and energy-related exports before selectively resuming trade once officials are confident domestic demand can be met, she said.

Famine and ​scarcity remain deeply embedded in China’s political consciousness, ​with the trauma of Mao Zedong’s Great Leap Forward and Cultural Revolution still close enough to remember.

“Only if China gets more comfortable with its own exposure, then I would expect meaningful support,” said Max Zenglein, senior economist at the Conference Board Asia. “I expect any support will be very transactional. Not a good position to be in if ​you are one those countries, unfortunately.”

Wang Jin, a senior fellow at the Beijing Club for International Dialogue, a think tank under China’s foreign ministry, said Beijing could also benefit if the shock pushes trading partners to accelerate investment in green and nuclear energy, sectors where China leads after years of state-backed investment.

What is more, with no major aid donor such as Japan, or regional rival, stepping in to plug shortages, China faces little pressure to do so itself, analysts said.

Olander compared the situation to the Covid-19 pandemic, when officials across the region looked to India as Asia’s main source of ⁠vaccines, only for New Delhi to halt exports as infections surged at home.

Osman said China’s partners seeking concessions would do well to remind Beijing of its own commitments.

“Maybe the key is just to quote this new bit of the five-year plan back to Beijing: ‘strengthen international cooperation in food, energy, data, biological and sea passage security, counter-terrorism and other fields.”

Development organisation Sajida Foundation has got regulatory approval to raise Tk158.5 crore through a non-convertible, unsecured zero-coupon bond aimed at expanding financial inclusion and strengthening women-led enterprises and SME financing across Bangladesh.

The Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission approved this in a meeting held in Dhaka today (30 March).

The proposed instrument, titled "Sajida Orange Zero-Coupon Bond," is designed as a social impact financing tool to support long-term development initiatives. The bond will be issued through private placement and is intended to channel funds into women-focused economic empowerment programmes.

Earlier, Sajida Foundation raised Tk198 crore through a zero-coupon bond in 2024 and Tk100 crore through a green zero-coupon bond in 2021, reflecting its gradual shift towards capital market-based financing to reduce donor dependency and scale up development activities.

Zahida Fizza Kabir, chief executive officer (CEO) of Sajida Foundation, told The Business Standard, "The Orange bond is a vital tool that allows us to scale our impact by mobilising domestic capital to meet the essential needs of underserved women in Bangladesh."

He said, "By focusing on SME financing, secure housing, and food security, we are not just providing financial aid, we are investing in the resilience and leadership of women who are the backbone of our communities."

Zahida further said, "This is a watershed moment for Bangladesh's capital market. The Orange bond proves that purpose and profit are not in conflict; rather, they are complementary. The BSEC's approval signals that our market is ready to compete globally in sustainable finance, and we are proud to have pioneered this journey alongside Sajida Foundation."

Under the proposed structure, BRAC EPL Investments Limited will act as the issue manager, while DBH Finance PLC will serve as a trustee. The issuance will require approval from the BSEC and a no-objection certificate from the Microcredit Regulatory Authority.

The proceeds will be deployed under "eligible orange projects," focusing on women's empowerment, SME development, employment generation, agriculture, food security, and housing. A key priority is expanding access to affordable credit for women entrepreneurs, particularly in rural and underserved communities.

According to the allocation plan, around 32% of the funds will be directed to SME financing and employment generation, 20% to housing-related initiatives, and approximately 40% to agriculture and food security projects. The remaining portion will be used for microfinance operations, programme implementation, and technology-driven financial inclusion initiatives.

The bond is structured as a zero-coupon instrument, meaning investors will not receive periodic interest payments. Instead, they will purchase the bond at a discounted price and receive the full face value at maturity. The total issue size is Tk158.5 crore, while the indicative present value, based on an 11.5% discount rate, is estimated at around Tk127.99 crore.

Each bond carries a face value of Tk3,33,333, with a total of 4,755 bonds to be issued. Investors will have the option to choose tenors of one, two, or three years, with expected yields ranging between 7% and 11.5%, depending on market conditions.

The instrument will be listed on the Alternative Trading Board of the stock exchange, though secondary market liquidity is expected to remain limited. The repayment structure is designed on an equal annual basis, with portions of the bond redeemed each year to manage cash flow efficiently.

Sajida Foundation has received a long-term credit rating of AA+ and a short-term rating of ST-2 from Emerging Credit Rating Limited, reflecting a strong capacity to meet financial obligations and a stable outlook. However, the bond remains unsecured and carries no collateral backing.

To mitigate risk, the structure includes a rating-trigger mechanism. If the credit rating falls below investment grade (below BBB or ST-3), an additional premium of 0.25% to 1% will be added to the discount rate, offering partial protection to investors.

The bond does not include an early redemption option, meaning investors must hold it until maturity. In case of delayed payments, the issuer will be required to pay an additional 2% annual penalty on overdue amounts.

Founded in 1987, Sajida Foundation began as a privately funded family charity and has since evolved into one of Bangladesh's leading development organisations. It works across microfinance, healthcare, education, and social protection programmes, currently operating in 36 districts and reaching over 60 lakh people.

The organisation also maintains a strong financial base, including a 51% ownership stake in Renata Limited, a listed pharmaceutical company whose dividends significantly support its financial sustainability. In addition, Sajida Foundation collaborates with national and international development partners.

Market analysts note that the issuance reflects a broader shift in Bangladesh's development financing landscape, where non-government organisations are increasingly accessing capital markets to diversify funding sources. While the bond offers attractive returns and strong social impact potential, experts caution that its unsecured nature and limited liquidity may pose risks for conservative investors.

The Sajida Orange Zero-Coupon Bond represents a significant step towards integrating capital market financing with social development objectives, particularly in advancing women's economic empowerment and inclusive growth in Bangladesh, say analysts.

Foreign investors have continued withdrawing funds from Bangladesh's equity market over the past nine months through February this year amid persistent geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic uncertainties.

Political stability following the Bangladesh Nationalist Party's landslide victory in the February polls has failed to attract foreign investment, as intensifying conflict in the Middle East poses fresh economic challenges.

Md Akramul Alam, head of research at Royal Capital, said overall economic activity remained sluggish amid continued uncertainty, while the profitability of major listed companies stayed subdued due to high input costs.

"Persistent macroeconomic uncertainties and ongoing geopolitical tensions discouraged overseas investors from making fresh investments in stocks," he said.

Moreover, private sector credit growth fell to a historic low of 6.03 per cent in January, reflecting weak business confidence and tighter lending conditions, he added.

The ongoing US-Israel war involving Iran has already triggered volatility in global oil and gas prices, raising concerns about inflation and broader economic spillovers in Bangladesh.

"This has dampened the prospect of a sharp recovery in private sector credit demand and the much-needed spike in fresh investment," Mr Alam noted.

He also cited a confidence crisis, a high-value dollar against the local currency, and vulnerabilities in the banking sector as key deterrents to foreign investment.

Foreign investors typically seek a stable, predictable, and long-term policy environment under an elected government to ensure the safety of their investments with good returns.

The newly elected government has yet to outline a clear economic roadmap, while the intensifying Middle East conflict has added to global economic tension.

Ahsanur Rahman, chief executive officer of BRAC EPL Stock Brokerage, said foreign investors are seeking greater clarity. "They want more information and explanations," he told The Financial Express in a recent interview.

A limited number of investable securities and frequent policy changes have also discouraged foreigners from keeping funds in the Bangladesh equity market. The market has not seen any new listings for more than two years.

The impact on stocks is palpable. Foreign investors purchased shares worth Tk 18.25 billion in 2025 against sell-offs of Tk 20.95 billion; outflow outweighed inflow, according to data from the Dhaka Stock Exchange.

When it comes to investing in stocks in Bangladesh, foreigners usually prefer multinational companies. Currently, they are not interested in putting their money into these companies either, owing to lower-than-expected earnings in recent quarters.

Most multinational companies saw their profits decline in the nine months through September 2025 compared to the same period last year, largely due to high finance costs amid political uncertainty.

Grameenphone, the largest stock in terms of market capitalisation, reported its lowest annual profit of Tk 29.6 billion in 2025 in eight years, largely driven by cost pressures and a high tax burden.

What is more, GP projected a year-on-year decline in its financial performance for the first quarter of 2026, citing mounting pressures from global geopolitical tensions and domestic economic challenges.

Subsequently, foreign stakes in GP fell to 0.60 per cent in February this year from 0.98 per cent in June last year.

British American Tobacco (BAT) Bangladesh's profit also nosedived to Tk 5.84 billion in 2025, the lowest since its listing, due to lower sales, higher excise duty, and one-off costs for the Dhaka factory closure.

As a result, BAT's foreign stake dropped from 3.43 per cent to 3.24 per cent between June last year and February this year.

Olympic Industries experienced a similar trend. Its foreign stake fell to 30.26 per cent in February this year from 34.21 per cent in June last year.

Foreign shareholding in DBH Finance also dropped from 3.73 per cent to 0.44 per cent in the nine months through February this year.

However, BRAC Bank experienced a rise in foreign stakes from 33.80 per cent to 36.72 per cent during the period, while it reported record profits.

BRAC Bank's consolidated profit stood at Tk 15.36 billion for January-September 2025, surpassing its previous year's record annual profit.

Along with the record profit, BRAC Bank provided capital-gain opportunities in the secondary market, as its stock surged 78 per cent between June last year and February this year.

According to Akramul Alam, foreign investors are concerned about the high value of the dollar against the local currency.

Although the foreign exchange market has stabilised in recent months due to higher dollar inflows, supported by strong remittance and export earnings, the taka-dollar exchange rate remains as high as before.

"When the local currency weakens, foreign investors incur losses as the value of their assets falls even when share prices remain unchanged," Mr Alam said.

He also noted that many global fund managers have, in the meantime, rebalanced their portfolios, while others have shifted to gold to secure their investments instead of investing in equities.

"Foreign investors are closely monitoring Bangladesh. Portfolio investment may pick up again if geopolitical tensions ease," he added.