Bangladesh's Small and Medium Enterprise (SME) sector is witnessing a sharp decline in activity, with production down by as much as 30% in recent weeks amid the global energy crisis, rising raw material costs, and frequent load-shedding.

Mirza Nurul Ghani Shovon, President of the National Association of Small and Cottage Industries of Bangladesh (NASCIB), told The Business Standard that the situation is becoming untenable for many small-scale manufacturers.

"The energy crisis has pushed many institutions to the brink of closure. In many cases, production has already dwindled by 25% to 30%," Shovon said.

He noted that without a stable power supply, factories are unable to meet their production target, leading to a massive drop in output across the board.

The sector, which contributes over 28% to the national GDP and employs roughly three crore people, is currently navigating its toughest period since the pandemic.

The leather and chemical-dependent sectors are among the hardest hit. Ilias Hossain, the proprietor of Rajex Leather, revealed that essential production components have become extremely expensive.

"The price of chemicals used in leather processing has doubled, and in some cases, even tripled," Ilias claimed.

He added that the cost of imported raw materials from China – such as gum and pasting – has surged due to global supply chain disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict. "When raw materials cost this much, the price of every finished product, from belts to footwear, must go up, which then kills consumer demand."

While production is dwindling, sales are also being stifled by operational restrictions. Shofiqul Islam, owner of Topex Leather, pointed out that the government-mandated early closing of shops to save electricity has put businesses in a tight spot.

"We are forced to wind down by 7pm or 8pm. But our primary customers, specially service holders, usually come to shop after their office hours in the evening. Our wholesale and retail sales are taking a massive hit," Shofiqul explained.

Monoranjan Sarker Noyon, proprietor of Manikganj-based Noyon Handicrafts, told TBS that the current economic climate has forced a significant reduction in corporate and wholesale orders.

"Our production hasn't been hit significantly yet, but our orders have definitely decreased," Noyon said, noting that even long-term regular clients are unable to maintain their usual purchase volumes as consumer demand falters at the retail level.

Anwar Hossain Chowdhury, managing director of SME Foundation, echoed these concerns, stating that the impact on marginal and rural entrepreneurs is particularly severe.

"The supply chain is broken. Production and marketing are both suffering a negative impact that is easily predictable and deeply concerning," he added.

Despite the challenges, some niche sectors like handmade crafts remain resilient. Jannatul Ferdous, founder of Bhumi Artisan, noted that while her production isn't fuel-dependent, the overall economic slowdown might eventually weigh on even the most specialised markets.

To prevent a total collapse of the sector, industry leaders are calling for immediate government intervention.

"The banks have moved away from single-digit interest rates and returned to higher tiers," Shovon of NASCIB remarked.

"With production down by 30% and costs rising, these high interest rates will finish us off. The government must ensure a return to single digit interest rate to keep the SME economy alive," he said.

Bangladesh is entering a period of intense fiscal pressure, with external debt servicing set to surge sharply over the next five years, exposing the limits of its already weak revenue base.

According to an Economic Relations Division (ERD) report, the country will need to pay nearly $26 billion in external debt servicing between the current fiscal year and FY30.

The scale of the burden is clearer in historical context.

In the 54 years since independence in 1971, Bangladesh has paid around $40 billion in debt servicing. Now, nearly two-thirds of that amount will be repaid within just five years.

This comes as the tax-to-GDP ratio has slipped below 7%, the lowest among peer economies, constraining the government's ability to absorb shocks or expand spending.

At the same time, a series of external shocks – including the Covid-19 pandemic, the Ukraine war, domestic political instability, and ongoing tensions in the Middle East – have strained revenue collection, export earnings and remittance flows, further complicating debt servicing pressures.

Total external debt stood at $77.28 billion as of 30 June 2025, up from $68.82 billion a year earlier, according to another ERD report.

Bangladesh paid about $4 billion in the previous fiscal year, which is expected to rise to $4.74 billion in the current year, $4.87 billion in FY27 – peaking at $5.5 billion in FY30.

Economists say the rising obligation will strain public finances at a time of elevated global energy prices. They warn that within five to 10 years, as repayments on new loans begin, the situation could become more complex.

They say avoiding a foreign debt trap requires an urgent push to expand exports, develop skilled manpower, boost remittances, improve investment climate and strengthen revenue.

Why debt pressure is rising

The latest ERD report was prepared ahead of the finance minister's Washington meetings. The finance minister and governor are now in the United States, seeking fresh budget support from the World Bank and the release of IMF loan tranches to ease fiscal stress.

The report estimates are based on external loans contracted up to FY25. Borrowing in the current fiscal year has not been included.

Officials said Bangladesh has financed a series of mega projects through external borrowing, including the $11.3 billion Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant, Padma Rail Link, Karnaphuli Tunnel, Dhaka Metro Rail, Single Point Mooring with Double Pipeline, Hazrat Shahjalal International Airport expansion and the Jamuna Railway Bridge.

Many of these projects have either completed or are nearing the end of their grace periods, triggering principal repayments and steadily increasing debt servicing pressure.

Principal repayments for the Rooppur plant are set to begin in 2028, with annual payments exceeding $500 million. Budget support loans taken during the post-Covid period are also entering repayment phases, further adding to pressure.

Officials also cited implementation delays as a major concern. Delays have slowed the realisation of economic returns, while some completed projects remain idle due to operational bottlenecks.

For instance, electricity generation from Rooppur was expected two years earlier but has been delayed. The Single Point Mooring project, completed in 2024 with $467.84 million in Chinese financing, has yet to begin operations. The Dhaka airport expansion, financed with nearly $2 billion from Japan, also remains idle due to delays in appointing an operator.

Burden peaks in FY30

The report shows Bangladesh will need to repay $25.99 billion over FY26-FY30, including the current fiscal year. Of this, $18.38 billion is principal and $7.6 billion interest. This burden will nearly double to $51.33 billion between FY26 and FY35.

FY30 is projected as the peak repayment year, when Bangladesh will need to service about $5.5 billion based on the debt stock as of June 2025.

The report notes that, based on average monthly remittances of about $2.03 billion during FY21-FY25, less than three months of inflows would be sufficient to cover annual external debt obligations even at the peak.

Existing debt needs 37 years to clear

Based on borrowings up to June of the last fiscal year, Bangladesh would need 37 years to fully repay its existing external debt stock, according to the ERD.

If no new loans are added, the current stock would be cleared by FY63, meaning today's liabilities will continue to be serviced over the long term.

Net external borrowing in FY25 was $5.83 billion, with officials estimating annual increases in debt stock of roughly $8-9 billion.

Debt ratios under pressure

According to the latest Flow of External Resources into Bangladesh report by the ERD, the debt-to-GDP ratio, though still low by global standards, is gradually rising.

It reached 18.99% at the end of FY25, up from 17.03% a year earlier, against a 40% benchmark. The debt-to-revenue ratio also edged higher, climbing to 16.92% from 16.53% over the same period, nearing the IMF's threshold of 18%.

The ERD warned that without stronger revenue growth, Bangladesh could lose its current "comfortable position" in servicing external debt.

Other indicators offer a mixed outlook. The debt-to-exports of goods and services plus remittances ratio improved modestly, falling to 105.87% from 110.09% a year earlier, remaining well below the IMF's 180% threshold.

'Exports, remittances must keep pace'

Terming the situation an "unavoidable reality" for Bangladesh, Zahid Hussain, former lead economist at the World Bank's Dhaka office, said, "If export earnings and remittances fail to keep pace, the economy could slip into distress."

World Bank and IMF analyses show the shift from "low" to "moderate" debt risk is driven less by GDP and more by worsening debt-to-revenue and debt-to-export ratios.

He warned that weak revenue mobilisation and foreign exchange pressures are already staring the economy. "Without improvement, moderate risk could escalate into high risk."

He called for stricter "sanity checks" in selecting loan-funded projects, especially in energy, where investments could ease gas shortages, raise industrial output and support exports.

Loan decisions, he said, must focus on repayment capacity through future exports and fiscal space, not just loan size.

Bangladesh has not defaulted so far, he noted, but warned the buffer may not hold amid global slowdown, LDC graduation pressures and geopolitical shocks. "Debt rescheduling or delays in repayment would carry reputational risks and increase future borrowing costs," he said.

'Capacity-building imperative'

Mustafa K Mujeri, executive director at the Institute for Inclusive Finance and Development, said the economy is at a critical juncture, with rising repayments alongside fresh borrowing.

He warned that mismanagement could trigger a crisis, calling for urgent capacity building based on four pillars: export expansion, skilled manpower development, improved investment climate and stronger revenue collection.

He said reliance on the ready-made garments sector alone is insufficient and called for diversification into agro-products, leather goods and light engineering.

Remittances, he added, remain a key lifeline, requiring alignment with global labour market demand and expanded training programmes. He also urged easier and more attractive legal remittance channels.

He said Bangladesh's tax-to-GDP ratio of around 7-8% is a structural weakness. "This narrow revenue base is insufficient to service large-scale debt while sustaining development."

He called for tax system reforms, anti-evasion measures and broader tax coverage.

He added that energy security is a direct enabler of debt repayment capacity. "Uninterrupted gas and power supply is essential to keep industrial production running."

Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury has unveiled an ambitious vision to transform Bangladesh into a trillion-dollar economy by 2034, even as rising debt and intensifying climate risks threaten to derail progress.

Speaking at the 16th Ministerial Dialogue of the CVF-V20 on April 14, the minister underscored Bangladesh’s position as one of the world’s most climate-vulnerable economies, warning of a tightening fiscal environment driven by recurring disasters and financial strain.

Mr. Chowdhury delivered a stark assessment of the country’s economic trajectory, cautioning that development financing is increasingly constrained by a growing debt burden.

Bangladesh’s debt-to-GDP ratio has climbed sharply – from 26.2 per cent in FY2017 to 36.0 per cent in FY2023 – with further increases expected as repayment obligations rise on large infrastructure projects.

By FY2024, domestic debt is projected to comprise 56 per cent of total liabilities, while external debt will account for 44 per cent, reflecting a shifting financing structure that could heighten internal fiscal pressure.

The fiscal squeeze is already impacting climate-related social protection efforts. Allocations for climate-focused programmes under the Social Safety Net Programme (SSNP) have dropped dramatically to U$592.8 million for FY2025–26, down from U$1.42 billion previously – nearly a two-thirds reduction.Personal Finance Software

To cushion vulnerable populations, the government has introduced targeted initiatives such as “Family Cards” and “Farmers Cards”, aimed at mitigating the combined shocks of climate change and global economic volatility.

Beyond domestic challenges, Bangladesh is grappling with mounting geopolitical and trade pressures.

The World Bank estimates that the ongoing Middle East conflicts could push an additional 1.2 million Bangladeshis into poverty, exacerbating social vulnerabilities.

Meanwhile, the minister criticised unilateral trade measures (UTMs) that bypass global trade norms, arguing that such policies disproportionately affect climate-vulnerable economies like Bangladesh.

In response, Bangladesh has outlined a five-point reform agenda aimed at reshaping international financial support mechanisms.

The points are adoption of a Multidimensional Vulnerability Index (MVI) instead of GNI per capita to determine aid eligibility, large-scale and fast-tracked debt relief mechanisms, expanded risk-hedging tools to attract private climate investment, pre-arranged emergency liquidity facilities for climate disasters and accelerated climate-focused reforms within multilateral development banks.Bangladesh Economic Report

“It is time to translate conference into practice and turn advocacy into action,” Mr. Chowdhury said, urging the global community to step up support.

He also proposed establishing a CVF-V20 Regional Hub in Dhaka, positioning Bangladesh as a leader in climate resilience and policy innovation.

Bangladesh’s trillion-dollar ambition signals confidence in long-term growth, but without urgent fiscal space, climate financing, and global support, the path ahead remains highly challenging.

A high-powered Bangladesh delegation is now staying in Washington D.C. led by the finance minister for joining the Spring Meetings of IMF-WBG.

Finance Secretary Dr Md Khairuzzaman Mozumder, NBR Chairman Md Abdur Rahman Khan, Governor Md Mostaqur Rahman, Basumati Group Chairman ZM Golam Nabi and senior officials of different ministries and divisions are members of the panel.

The Spring Meetings began on April 13 and will conclude on April 18.

The International Monetary Fund cut its growth outlook on Tuesday due to Iran war-driven energy price spikes and supply disruptions and warned that the global economy would teeter on ​the brink of recession if the conflict worsens and oil stays above $100 per barrel through 2027.

With massive uncertainty over the Middle East conflict gripping finance officials gathering for IMF and World Bank spring meetings in Washington, ‌the IMF presented three growth scenarios: weaker, worse and severe, depending on how the war unfolds.

The World Economic Outlook's most optimistic "reference scenario" assumes a short-lived Iran war and forecasts 3.1% real GDP growth for 2026, down 0.2 percentage point from its previous forecast in January. Under this scenario, oil prices average $82 per barrel for all of 2026, a decline from recent levels of around $100 for the Brent benchmark futures price .

Absent the Middle East conflict, the IMF said it would have upgraded its growth outlook by 0.1 percentage point to 3.4%, due to a continued technology investment boom, lower interest rates, less-severe US tariffs and fiscal support ​in some countries.

But the war has created a far bigger risk to the global economy than President Donald Trump's initial wave of steep tariffs did a year ago, IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas told Reuters in an interview.

"What's happening in ​the Gulf is potentially much, much larger, and that's what our scenarios are kind of documenting," he said.

Under an "adverse scenario" of a longer conflict that keeps oil prices around $100 per barrel this ⁠year and $75 in 2027, the IMF predicts global GDP growth would fall to 2.5% this year. The IMF in January had forecast that oil would decline to about $62 in 2026.

And the IMF's worst-case "severe scenario" assumes an extended and deepening conflict and much higher oil prices that prompt ​major financial market dislocations and tighter financial conditions, slashing global growth to 2.0%.

"This would mean a close call for a global recession," the IMF said, adding that growth has been below that level only four times since 1980 - with the last two severe recessions in 2009, following ​the financial crisis, and in 2020 as the COVID-19 pandemic raged.

Inflation pressures

Gourinchas said that a number of countries would be in outright recessions under this scenario, with oil prices averaging $110 per barrel in 2026 and $125 in 2027. Prices at this level for an extended time would also increase expectations "that inflation is here to stay," prompting wider price increases and wage hike demands.

"That change in inflation expectations is going to require central banks to step on the brakes and try to bring inflation back down," he said, adding that this may require more pain than in 2022.

The IMF said, however, that central banks ​may be able to "look through" a short-lived energy price surge and hold rates steady amid weaker activity, which would be a de facto monetary easing, but only if inflation expectations remain anchored.

Global inflation for 2026 would top 6% in the severe scenario, compared to ​4.4% in the most-optimistic reference scenario, which is the assumption for the IMF's country and regional growth forecasts.

Major economy outlooks

The IMF shaved its US growth outlook for this year to 2.3%, down just a tenth of a percentage point from January, reflecting the positive effect of tax cuts, the ‌lagged effect of ⁠interest rate cuts and continued AI data center investment partly offsetting the higher energy costs. These effects are expected to continue in 2027, with growth now forecast at 2.1%, up a tenth of a point from January.

The euro zone, still struggling with higher energy prices caused by Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, takes a bigger hit from the Middle East conflict, with its growth outlook falling 0.2 percentage points in both years to 1.1% in 2026 and 1.2% for 2027.

Japan's growth is largely unchanged under the most benign scenario at a weak 0.7% for 2026 and 0.6% for 2027, but the IMF said that it expects the Bank of Japan to hike rates at a slightly faster pace than anticipated six months ago.

The IMF forecast China's growth for 2026 at 4.4%, down a tenth of a point ​from January as the higher energy and commodity costs are partly ​offset by lower US tariff rates and government stimulus measures. ⁠But the IMF said headwinds from a depressed housing sector, a declining labor force, lower returns on investment and slower productivity growth will cut China's 2027 growth to 4.0%, a forecast unchanged from January.

Emerging markets, Middle East hit hard

Overall, emerging market and developing economies, where GDP tends to be more dependent on oil inputs, take a bigger hit from the Middle East conflict than advanced economies, with 2026 ​growth seen falling 0.3 percentage points to 3.9%.

Nowhere is this more pronounced than at the epicenter of the conflict in the Middle East and Central Asia region, which will see its ​2026 GDP growth fall by two full ⁠percentage points to 1.9% amid widespread infrastructure damage and sharply curtailed energy and commodity exports.

GDP declines for 2026 are forecast at 6.1% for Iran, 8.6% for Qatar, 6.8% for Iraq, 0.6% for Kuwait and 0.5% for Bahrain.

But under the assumption of a short-lived conflict, the region bounces back quickly, with 2027 GDP growth rebounding to 4.6%, a jump of 0.6 percentage point from the January forecasts.

The one bright spot amid emerging markets is India, which saw growth upgrades of about a tenth of a percentage point to 6.5% for both 2026 and 2027, due in ⁠part to momentum ​from strong growth at the end last year and a deal to lower the US tariff rate on Indian imports.

Fuel cost fiscal support

The IMF said that governments ​will be tempted to implement fiscal measures to ease the pain of higher energy prices, including price caps, fuel subsidies or tax cuts, but cautioned against these urges amid still-elevated budget deficits and rising public debt.

Gourinchas said it was "perfectly legitimate" to want to protect the most vulnerable, but subsidies in one country could lead to ​fuel shortages in others that can't afford them.

"You have to do it in a very targeted, very temporary way that doesn't really mess up the fiscal framework" needed by most countries to rebuild their fiscal buffers, he said.

The year 2025 will be remembered as a period of significant contraction for dividend-seeking investors in Bangladesh's capital market, as multinational companies faced an unprecedented squeeze on profitability.

Historically regarded as the bedrock of the Dhaka and Chattogram bourses for their consistent and generous payouts, these global giants saw their collective dividend distributions plummet by 46% compared with the previous year.

Currently, out of the 13 multinational companies listed on the two stock exchanges, the status of dividend declarations remains mixed. While eight have already announced their payouts for the year, others are at various stages of their financial cycles.

Bata Shoes and Marico Bangladesh have declared interim dividends but are yet to finalise their year-end figures. Meanwhile, firms such as Berger Paints and Marico follow a financial year that ends in March, meaning their full annual performance will not be clear for several more months. Heidelberg Materials also yet to declare its stance for 2025.

Data from ten major multinational entities show they declared a total of Tk5,070 crore in dividends for the 2025 financial year, a sharp retreat from the Tk9,411 crore in 2024.

This massive shortfall of Tk4,341 crore reflects a broader story of operational challenges, ranging from inflationary pressures and site relocations to historic losses and shifting macroeconomic conditions.

Downturn driven by heavyweights

The downturn in payouts was driven largely by the market's heavyweights, with British American Tobacco (BAT) Bangladesh and Grameenphone recording the most substantial declines.

BAT Bangladesh, a long-term favourite for income investors, saw its cash dividend drop from 300% in 2024 to just 30% in 2025. In monetary terms, this represented a collapse from Tk1,620 crore to Tk162 crore.

According to the company's price-sensitive disclosure, its net profit for the year ending December 2025 decreased by 67%, primarily due to a Tk715 crore one-off impact caused by the forced closure of its Dhaka factory and the subsequent relocation of machinery to Savar. This restructuring, combined with rising operating expenses and a decline in turnover, forced the tobacco giant to adopt a much more conservative stance on profit distribution.

Similarly, the telecommunications leader Grameenphone declared a 215% cash dividend for 2025, which, while substantial in the context of the broader market, was significantly lower than the 330% payout offered in 2024.

The company's total dividend amount fell from Tk4,456 crore to Tk2,903 crore as its net profit dipped to Tk2,958 crore from the previous year's Tk3,630 crore. The telecom sector, which is highly sensitive to consumers' purchasing power, felt the weight of persistent high inflation throughout the year, leading to a more cautious approach to cash preservation.

Perhaps the most startling development of the year came from Singer Bangladesh. For the first time in its listed history, the electronics giant failed to recommend any dividend.

The company suffered a loss of Tk225 crore in 2025, a sharp deterioration from a loss of Tk48.93 crore in 2024. The depth of the financial crisis at Singer led to negative retained earnings of Tk150 crore, making a dividend payout legally and financially impossible.

Industry insiders pointed to the double blow of a depreciating currency and a slowdown in consumer demand for durable goods as the primary drivers of this historic outcome.

Linde Bangladesh also saw a drastic change in its payout profile. While it had declared a record-breaking 4,500% cash dividend in 2024 – fuelled by the disposal of assets and special capital gains – it returned to a more standard 100% cash dividend in 2025. Consequently, the total amount disbursed by the industrial gas provider fell from Tk684 crore to just Tk15 crore.

Other firms such as Unilever Consumer Care and Marico Bangladesh also trimmed their payouts, with Marico's interim dividend standing at 1,575% cash compared with a total of 3,840% in the preceding year.

RAK Ceramics, grappling with a loss of nearly Tk40 crore, limited its 10% cash dividend to general shareholders only, reflecting the immense pressure on the construction and real estate supply chain.

Against the trend

Despite the prevailing gloom, a few multinationals managed to defy the trend. Robi Axiata reported a significant improvement in its bottom line, with net profit rising to Tk938 crore from Tk702 crore. This allowed the mobile operator to increase its cash dividend to 17.5%, up from 15% in 2024.

LafargeHolcim Bangladesh also showed resilience, raising its cash dividend to 40% from 38% after posting a robust profit of Tk511 crore. These outliers, however, were not enough to offset the massive dividend erosion seen across the rest of the MNC segment.

Market analysts have characterised 2025 as a "year of survival" for most multinationals operating in Bangladesh. The combination of high inflation, unfavourable macroeconomic conditions, and political uncertainty created a hostile environment for business growth.

Many of these firms found themselves struggling with high import costs due to the dollar crisis, while also facing a domestic market where consumers were increasingly forced to cut back on non-essential spending.

The resulting squeeze on margins meant that even profitable firms had to prioritise liquidity and balance sheet strength over rewarding shareholders.

Stocks at the Dhaka bourse slipped back into losses yesterday after a brief rebound in the previous session, as persistent sell-offs driven by cautious investor sentiment eroded early gains.

The downturn came amid heightened global uncertainty following the failure of talks between the US and Iran, prompting investors to offload shares and adopt a wait-and-see approach.

The benchmark index, DSEX, of the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) fell by 41 points to close at 5,230. Market turnover also declined by 5%, while total market capitalisation dropped by Tk2,555 crore to Tk6.85 lakh crore, according to DSE data.

Market breadth remained negative, with 55% of traded stocks declining, compared to 31% advancing, while 14% remained unchanged.

The decline follows a modest recovery in the previous session when the market snapped a losing streak.

On Sunday, the DSEX gained 14 points after shedding around 60 points in earlier sessions.

Yesterday's trading began on a positive note, with indices staying in the green for the first 38 minutes until 10:38am, supported by early buying interest. However, the momentum proved short-lived as selling pressure, particularly in blue-chip stocks, pulled the indices into losses.

By the end of the session, the Shariah-based index DSES fell by 3 points to 1,057, while the blue-chip DS30 index declined by 31 points to 1,981.

Data showed that around 60% of A-category stocks, typically known for offering over 10% dividends, registered price declines. Meanwhile, 40% of Z-category stocks, considered junk stocks, also lost value.

In contrast, mutual funds posted gains, with 73% of traded funds closing higher.

In its daily market commentary, EBL Securities said the market failed to sustain the previous session's recovery as geopolitical concerns dampened investor confidence.

"Although the market opened on a positive note, the momentum quickly faded as jittery sentiment triggered broad-based sell-offs," the brokerage firm noted.

"Selling pressure intensified in large-cap stocks as the session progressed, dragging the broad index into negative territory and reflecting a lack of confidence among investors," it added.

Among the gainers, Mir Akhter Hossain Ltd topped the chart with a 9.82% rise to Tk31.3 per share. It was followed by Yeakin Polymer (9.03%), Fareast Finance (8.69%), Phoenix Finance 1st Mutual Fund (8.61%), and Premier Leasing (8.3%).

On the losing side, Meghna Condensed Milk Industries led the decliners, falling 4.67% to Tk36.7 per share, despite its operations remaining suspended for years. Other major losers included Apex Tannery (4.33%), KDS Accessories (4.27%), Sena Insurance (4.22%), and Peoples Insurance (3.86%).

The capital market in Bangladesh faces persistent problems with trust. IPO fraud and manipulation continue despite reforms, undermining investor confidence and impeding economic growth. Long-term stability and national development are at stake.

The nation has learned painful lessons. An estimated $27 billion in market value—roughly 22 percent of GDP at the time—was destroyed by the crashes of 1996 and, more catastrophically, 2010–2011. Millions of investors suffered losses, leaving social repercussions that still shape public perception of the stock market. The same structural flaws remain more than a decade later.

Recent enforcement data highlight the severity. The Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) fined individuals nearly Tk 1,488 crore in the past 18 months for manipulation and misconduct. Yet only a fraction has been recovered due to lengthy legal battles. This gap between punishment and accountability sends the wrong signal: wrongdoing is costly on paper but not in practice.

Systemic weaknesses drive these failures—coordinated trading through omnibus accounts, abuse of placement shares, diversion of IPO proceeds, and lack of real-time surveillance. Bangladesh’s market capitalization remains low, around 6 percent of GDP in mid-2025, compared to over 100 percent in deeper, better-run markets. This underdevelopment hampers financing for infrastructure, SMEs, and industrial growth—key to Vision 2041 and the “Smart Bangladesh” agenda.

Globally, fraud persists but is increasingly managed with technology. Scandals like Enron and Madoff spurred regulators to adopt AI for real-time surveillance. Exchanges are also testing blockchain-based settlement systems that are faster, cheaper, and more transparent. Emerging economies such as India and Brazil have embraced digital reforms, strengthening disclosure, monitoring, and enforcement.

Bangladesh, however, still relies on manual oversight and fragmented data. In an era of cyber-enabled scams, this is insufficient. For a small, fragile market, each crisis inflicts disproportionate damage and deters investors. Modern technology offers a transformative opportunity.

Blockchain can fundamentally change IPOs and securities transactions. In a permissioned blockchain, every transaction is permanently recorded, time-stamped, and visible to authorized participants. Smart contracts can automate IPO rules—ensuring funds are released only when verified conditions are met, allocations follow transparent logic, and lock-up periods cannot be bypassed. Immutable records eliminate manipulation.

AI complements this as a real-time watchdog. It can analyze trading patterns, detect unusual movements, and identify coordinated networks far faster than traditional monitoring. Leading exchanges report fewer false alarms and quicker enforcement after adopting AI-driven systems.

Together, blockchain and AI create a powerful regulatory architecture: blockchain ensures data integrity, AI provides intelligence and early warning. Such systems could flag suspicious IPO activity, trigger halts during abnormal behaviour, and deliver regulators immediate, evidence-based alerts. Privacy-preserving technologies safeguard data.

For Bangladesh, implementation can be phased. Pilot IPOs integrated with the central securities depository would allow testing and scaling. International experience shows such reforms reduce fraud risk, shorten settlement cycles, improve liquidity, and restore confidence.

A regulatory sandbox led by BSEC, with Bangladesh Bank, could test blockchain-based e-IPO systems and AI surveillance. Capacity building is vital—training regulators, auditors, and intermediaries to oversee data-driven systems. Collaboration among exchanges, the depository, banks, and technology providers will be essential.

Implementation should begin with targeted pilots: blockchain-enabled IPOs and AI surveillance in the secondary market, before scaling. This gradual approach limits disruption while signaling decisive reform.

Bangladesh is well-positioned to leapfrog. High mobile penetration, a young tech-savvy population, and strong policy backing under the Smart Bangladesh Master Plan provide a solid foundation. While advanced economies refined systems over decades, late adopters can now deploy mature technologies quickly.

The cost of inaction is clear: repeated scandals will cap growth, deter foreign investment, and push savings into informal channels. The benefits of action are equally clear: a transparent market that channels savings into productive investment, lowers risk premiums, and supports sustainable transformation.

Fraud is not inevitable—it is a governance problem that can be solved. By adopting blockchain and AI as core regulatory tools now, Bangladesh can protect investors, strengthen institutions, and become a regional leader in financial innovation. Decisive reform today will yield economic, social, and strategic dividends for decades.

The US military began a blockade of Iran's ports, angering Tehran and adding uncertainty around the crucial waterway, although hopes for dialogue to end the war provided some relief to ​oil markets, where benchmark prices fell below $100 on Tuesday (14 April).

After a breakdown of weekend talks in Islamabad between the two adversaries, a US official said there was continued engagement and ‌forward motion on trying to get to an agreement. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif also said efforts were still underway to resolve the conflict.

US President Donald Trump said Iran had been in touch on Monday and wanted to make a deal but that he would not sanction any agreement allowing Tehran to have a nuclear weapon.

Since the United States and Israel began the war on 28 February, Iran effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz to all vessels except its own, saying passage ​would be permitted only under Iranian control and subject to a fee.

The fallout has been widespread, since nearly a fifth of the world's oil and gas supplies flowed through the narrow ​waterway before the start of the conflict.

Trump has said Washington would block Iranian vessels and any ships that paid such tolls and that any Iranian "fast-attack" ships ⁠that went near the blockade would be eliminated. Tehran has threatened to hit naval ships going through the strait and to retaliate against its Gulf neighbours' ports.

Shipping data on LSEG showed Chinese-owned oil-and-chemicals tanker Rich ​Starry passed through the strait on Tuesday - the first since the US blockade began at 10am EDT (1400GMT) on Monday. The vessel, which departed Sharjah anchorage off the coast of Dubai on Monday heading for China, had ​earlier turned back minutes after approaching the strait.

The US's blockade has further clouded the outlook for global energy security and the supply of a vast array of goods that rely on petroleum, and has little, if any, international backing.

Nato allies including Britain and France said they would not be drawn into the conflict by taking part in the blockade, stressing instead the need to reopen the waterway.

Despite the breakdown of talks between the US and Iran on Sunday, Vice President JD Vance, who ​led the US delegation, told Fox News on Monday the US "made a lot of progress" by communicating to Tehran where the US "could make some accommodation" and where it would remain inflexible.

He said Trump was adamant ​that any enriched nuclear material must be removed from Iran and a mechanism must be established to verify that Iran is not developing nuclear weapons.

Tehran "moved in our direction, which is why I think we would say that we had ‌some good ⁠signs, but they didn't move far enough," Vance said, without disclosing details.

Ceasefire under strain

The ceasefire that halted six weeks of US-Israeli airstrikes and retaliatory fire from Iran across the Gulf looked in jeopardy, with only a week left to run.

The US military's Central Command said the blockade would be "enforced impartially against vessels of all nations" entering or leaving Iranian ports in the Gulf and Gulf of Oman. It would not impede neutral transit passage through the Strait of Hormuz to or from non-Iranian destinations, it said in a note to seafarers seen by Reuters.

An Iranian military spokesperson called any US restrictions on international shipping "piracy," warning that if Iranian ports were threatened, ​no port in the Gulf or Gulf of ​Oman would be secure. Any military vessels approaching ⁠the strait would violate the ceasefire, Iran's Revolutionary Guards said.

Trump said Iran's navy had been "completely obliterated" during the war, adding that only a small number of "fast-attack ships" remained.

"Warning: If any of these ships come anywhere close to our BLOCKADE, they will be immediately ELIMINATED, using the same system of kill that we use against ​the drug dealers on boats at Sea. It is quick and brutal," Trump said on social media.

He was apparently referring to the US strikes carried ​out against suspected drug boats ⁠in the Caribbean and Pacific. The strikes, which began in September, killed more than 160 people. The US military has not provided evidence that the vessels were ferrying drugs.

Lebanon faces attacks

With the war unpopular at home and rising energy prices causing political blowback, Trump paused the US-Israeli bombing campaign last week after threatening to destroy Iran's "whole civilisation" unless it reopened the strait.

In a letter to the United Nations, Iran's UN delegation on Monday asked for reparations from ⁠Saudi Arabia, ​the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar and Jordan, alleging they have allowed their territory to be used in the US-Israeli war against Iran.

Israel has ​continued to bombard Lebanon and on Monday troops launched an attack it said was intended to seize a key south Lebanon town from Iran-backed Hezbollah. The Israeli military said on Tuesday that an Israeli soldier was killed and three reservists were wounded during combat in southern Lebanon.

Israel ​and the US have said the campaign against Hezbollah was not part of the ceasefire, while Iran has insisted it is.

With Islamic banking now commanding 30% of Bangladesh's market, the shift from interest-based to asset-backed models is accelerating. Bank Asia is at the forefront, boasting a 70% deposit-investment ratio and a portfolio where Musharakah-based financing – true risk-sharing – hits 50%.

In a recent conversation with The Business Standard, the Bank's AMD ANM Mahfuz discusses the sector's trajectory and evolving strategic priorities

What is your outlook for the Islamic banking sector in the near future?

Islamic banking in Bangladesh has experienced remarkable growth since its introduction in 1983.

The sector has built deep public trust by aligning financial services with ethical and religious values.

With rising demand for Shariah-compliant products, expansion in SME and retail segments, and supportive regulatory frameworks, the outlook is highly promising.

In my view, Islamic banking will continue to increase its market share and play a transformative role in building a more inclusive, ethical and value-driven financial system.

What is driving the preference for Islamic banking over conventional banking?

Islamic banking is gaining popularity, particularly in Muslim-majority countries such as Bangladesh, primarily because it complies with Shariah principles, where interest (riba) is prohibited.

Beyond religious considerations, it is based on real economic activities involving tangible assets, unlike conventional banking, which is largely interest-based.

This asset-backed, risk-sharing approach enhances transparency and fairness. As a result, Islamic banking is increasingly regarded as a more ethical, stable and socially responsible alternative to traditional banking.

How has your bank's Islamic banking segment performed in recent years?

Bank Asia's Islamic banking segment has demonstrated strong and steady growth in recent years. The deposit–investment ratio has improved significantly, rising from around 50% to nearly 70%, indicating better fund utilisation and operational efficiency.

We remain fully committed to uncompromised Shariah compliance across all operations. A key strength of our portfolio is Musharakah-based financing, which accounts for approximately 50% of total investment, ensuring genuine risk-sharing and ethical financing.

In addition, we have built a strong presence in Sukuk investments and expanded our network from five to 15 Islamic banking windows. These achievements reflect our growing footprint and commitment to excellence in Islamic banking.

What strategies are you adopting to restore depositor confidence in Islamic banks?

Rebuilding depositor confidence in Islamic banking depends fundamentally on strict Shariah compliance and transparency.

Since its inception on 24 December 2008, Bank Asia Islamic Banking has upheld the principle of "Shuddhotai Apnar Munafa", emphasising purity and compliance in all operations.

Confidence is strengthened through a robust Shariah Supervisory Committee, regular Shariah audits and monitoring, skilled Islamic banking professionals, and transparent communication regarding fund utilisation and profit generation.

What opportunities exist to develop the Islamic bond market to support business capital-raising?

The Sukuk market offers significant opportunities for raising Shariah-compliant capital.

Globally, it has grown rapidly, particularly in countries such as Malaysia and Saudi Arabia. In Bangladesh, Sukuk issuance has already laid a strong foundation for further market expansion.

Sukuk can play a crucial role in financing infrastructure, supporting corporate growth, and attracting both individual and institutional investors, including non-resident Bangladeshis.

With appropriate regulatory support, Sukuk can become a key instrument for sustainable and ethical financing, aligning economic growth with social and environmental objectives.

What regulatory support is needed to diversify Islamic banking products?

To diversify Islamic banking products, strong regulatory support is essential.

This includes clear Shariah-compliant guidelines for products such as Sukuk, Takaful and structured investments, tax neutrality for Islamic financial contracts, standardised profit-sharing frameworks, and the development of secondary markets for Islamic instruments.

There is also a need for Shariah-compliant liquidity and risk management tools. Furthermore, promoting fintech integration, innovation and professional training will strengthen the overall ecosystem.

How can Islamic banking products be leveraged to attract NRBs?

Islamic banking products provide a strong platform to attract non-resident Bangladeshis (NRBs). Shariah-compliant options such as Mudarabah deposits, Sukuk investments and Islamic savings schemes offer halal and ethical returns.

Transparent profit-sharing, asset-backed investments and digital banking facilities enhance trust and accessibility, while remittance-linked Islamic accounts simplify fund transfers.

These initiatives can boost foreign currency inflows and strengthen diaspora engagement in Bangladesh's economic development.

How can Islamic banking contribute to sustainable growth and financial inclusion?

Profit-and-loss sharing models such as Mudarabah and Musharakah support SMEs, agriculture and infrastructure, driving job creation and economic development.

Financial inclusion is further enhanced through microfinance, micro-Takaful and Shariah-compliant savings products targeting underserved populations.

In addition, instruments such as green Sukuk finance environmentally sustainable projects.

By combining ethical finance with inclusivity, Islamic banking contributes to long-term economic stability and social equity.

The DSE Brokers Association of Bangladesh (DBA) has asked the stock market regulator to extend the deadline for complying with new margin rules by three months.

In a recent letter to the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC), the association sought more time to meet the requirements set out in the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (Margin) Rules 2025.

The rules came into force on November 1 last year, and are designed to strengthen risk management, protect investors and boost market stability. Three key provisions must be implemented within six months, with the current deadline set for April 30.

In the letter, the association argued that the timeframe is too tight.

DBA said that brokerage houses need time for internal consultations, risk assessments, board approvals and integration of the new requirements into their operational systems.

The association said many firms are still finalising their policies and implementation plans due to a shortage of skilled personnel required under the rules, as well as limited technical support and client feedback.

The association also noted that aligning with risk-based capital adequacy standards requires system upgrades, staff training, internal audits and technology improvements.

Rushing the process could trigger operational errors or disrupt margin services, it added.

Moreover, thousands of existing loan accounts contain non-marginable securities of considerable value. Enforcing the six-month deadline, the association said, could prompt distressed sales, cause market volatility, inflict avoidable losses on retail investors and tighten liquidity.

It also pointed to the current strain on the capital market following the Middle East war and fuel crisis, mentioning that immediate enforcement would add to the pressure.

A measured transition is essential to protect investors, the letter said.

DBA said that an additional three-month extension, taking the compliance period to nine months until July 31, 2026, would allow brokerages to complete the necessary system and policy upgrades and ensure a smooth adjustment for existing loan clients.

“We respectfully seek your kind consideration and approval for an extension of the compliance timelines stipulated in the Margin Rules 2025,” added the association.

China's long-term strategy of diversifying energy sources and building stockpiles is helping it weather disruptions from the Iran war, although some sectors still face major snags, analysts say.

China is a net importer of oil and more than half of its seaborne crude came from the Middle East last year, according to analytics firm Kpler.

The conflict triggered by Israel and the United States against Iran has halted almost all shipments from the Gulf area for six weeks now, with a shaky ceasefire deal struck this week extremely unlikely to lead to an immediate recovery.

However, Beijing's long-running prioritisation of energy security has left it well-prepared for such shocks, analysts told AFP.

A "general concern about the geopolitical situation" in recent years has spurred Chinese leaders to ensure sufficient storage construction and stockpiling of strategic reserves, said Muyu Xu, senior oil analyst at Kpler.

Those efforts mean China now sits in a far better position than several of its Asian neighbours, such as Japan and the Philippines, she said.

But so far Beijing has not been "in a rush" to initiate releases from its substantial strategic reserves, said Xu.

'Vindicated'

This is partly because China's decades-long mission to diminish its traditional reliance on coal and fossil fuels is beginning to flourish.

The large-scale efforts to transition to renewable energy mean "China is relatively well placed" to deal with the current situation, said Lauri Myllyvirta, co-founder of the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air.

Wind, solar and nuclear capacity has been added to China's populous coastal provinces, while improved grid infrastructure carries electricity to them from inland.

"There would be much more oil and gas imports needed to power those provinces" otherwise, said Myllyvirta.

While dependencies still exist -- including in the vast manufacturing sector -- renewable energy is "helping a lot on the margin", he said.

Li Shuo, director of the China Climate Hub at the Asia Society, told AFP that the current energy crisis "vindicates China's long-standing 'all-of-the-above' strategy".

President Xi Jinping is seeking to leverage the renewables build-out even further as geopolitical turmoil mounts.

State broadcaster CCTV aired a segment on Monday in which Xi was quoted as calling for accelerated construction of a "new energy system" to safeguard energy security, although it did not mention the Middle East war.

'Teapot' trouble brewing

For Beijing, the "more serious risk" is not immediate energy shocks but a potential global economic downturn caused by the conflict, the Asia Society's Li said.

Some sectors will inevitably feel the pinch, presenting new hurdles for leaders struggling to jumpstart sluggish activity.

Among them are "teapot" oil refineries -- small, private outfits that have historically benefited from access to sanctioned Iranian and Venezuelan crude acquired at a discount.

The loss of Iranian crude could be a death knell for many of these operations, which are mainly concentrated in the eastern province of Shandong and are already reeling from Washington's military intervention in Venezuela this year.

Beijing likely has "mixed feelings" about that, Kpler's Xu told AFP.

On the one hand, teapots account for around one-fifth of China's refining capacity, also providing substantial employment, she said.

However, their lax environmental standards, less predictable tax generation and competition with state-owned giants means that their shutting down is "not entirely bad news for China", said Xu.

Chipmaking, which Xi has declared a strategic priority, is another sector likely to encounter challenges as the Strait of Hormuz remains shut.

Qatar is one of the world's few large-scale producers of helium -- vital for semiconductor manufacturing -- and supplies have ground to a halt since the war began.

The chemicals industry could also face "significant pressure" from the disruption, Michal Meidan from the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies wrote in a recent report.

On a national level though, she said, "the impacts can be smoothed out".

"While the economy will not be immune to higher prices and reduced economic activity, stakeholders are already taking pre-emptive measures in case the disruption is protracted," she wrote.

Oil prices jumped above $100 a barrel on Monday as the US Navy prepared to block ships from reaching Iran via the Strait of Hormuz, a move that could restrict Iranian oil exports, after Washington and Tehran failed to reach a deal to end the war.

Brent crude futures rose $6.71, or 7.05%, to $101.91 a barrel by 0104 GMT after settling 0.75% lower on Friday.

"The market is now largely back to conditions before the ceasefire, except now the US will block the remaining up to 2 million barrels per day Iranian-linked flows through the Strait of Hormuz as well," said Saul Kavonic, head of energy research at MST Marquee.

President Donald Trump said on Sunday the US Navy would start blockading the Strait of Hormuz, raising the stakes after marathon talks with Iran failed to reach a deal to end the war, jeopardising a fragile two-week ceasefire.

He added that the price of oil and gasoline may remain high through November's midterm elections, a rare acknowledgement of the potential political fallout from his decision to attack Iran six weeks ago.

US Central Command said US forces would begin implementing the blockade of all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports at 10 am ET (1400 GMT) on Monday.

It would be "enforced impartially against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas, including all Iranian ports on the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman," a CENTCOM statement on X said.

US forces would not impede freedom of navigation for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz to and from non-Iranian ports, it added.

IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said the move would effectively choke off the flow of Iranian oil, forcing Tehran's allies and customers to apply the necessary pressure to get the waterway reopened.

Iran's Revolutionary Guards said on Sunday that any military vessels attempting to approach the Strait of Hormuz would be considered a violation of the two-week US ceasefire and be dealt with harshly and decisively.

Despite the stalemate, three supertankers fully laden with oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday, shipping data showed. They appeared to be the first vessels to exit the Gulf since the ceasefire deal was struck last week.

Oil tankers are steering clear of the Strait of Hormuz ahead of the US blockade on Iran, shipping data on LSEG showed.

On Sunday, Saudi Arabia said it has restored full oil pumping capacity through the East-West pipeline to about 7 million barrels per day, days after providing an assessment of damage to its energy sector from attacks during the Iran conflict.

Deposits in the country’s Islamic banking system rose 9.42 percent year-on-year to Tk 4.81 lakh crore at the end of December 2025, marking a rebound in shariah-based banks after years of irregularities and weak governance.

By the end of 2025, deposits with Islamic banking increased by Tk 41,434 crore compared with the corresponding quarter of 2024, according to the Bangladesh Bank (BB).

The trend over the past few years has been uneven. Deposits stood at Tk 4.09 lakh crore at the end of 2022 and rose to Tk 4.43 lakh crore by late 2023. They then slipped before regaining momentum through 2024.

Even so, the central bank said that some full-fledged Islamic banks remain under severe liquidity pressure, weighed down by persistent irregularities and poor accountability.

In the “Quarterly Report on Islamic Banking in Bangladesh”, the BB said that without good governance, the recovery will not last.

Islamic banks now hold 24.38 percent of total deposits across the banking sector and account for 29.10 percent of total investments, according to the report.

The number of deposit accounts in the Islamic banking system rose to 4.1 crore by the end of December 2025, from 4.04 crore a year earlier.

Of the total deposits, the 10 full-fledged Islamic banks held Tk 4.11 lakh crore, or 85.47 percent of the market share. Islamic branches of conventional banks held Tk 29,681 crore, while Islamic windows of regular banks held Tk 40,231 crore.

Among the full-fledged shariah-based lenders, Islami Bank Bangladesh PLC attracted the largest individual share of deposits at 37.44 percent, followed by Al-Arafah Islami Bank PLC at 10.41 percent and First Security Islami Bank PLC at 7.94 percent.

The BB report showed that investment by Islamic banks grew 9.55 percent year-on-year to Tk 5.25 lakh crore. This was equal to 29.10 percent of total loans and advances across the banking sector at the end of December 2025, according to the BB.

Large industries took the biggest slice at 40.18 percent of all Islamic bank investment, followed by trade and commerce at nearly 33 percent.

The central bank said the Islamic banking system has been playing a significant role in mobilising deposits and financing in various economic activities in Bangladesh.

However, the number of rural branches of full-fledged Islamic banks has not grown in line with demand. “They may focus more on expanding their outreach into rural areas,” it added.

The BB said Islamic banks may invest more in socially beneficial industries, particularly in agriculture and small businesses.

The central bank recommended that Islamic banks explore new customer bases in microfinance, support women entrepreneurs, and meet the financial needs of public agencies.

Treasury bill yields rose over the past week as increased government borrowing from banks, driven by mounting funding needs and weak revenue collection, put upward pressure on short-term interest rates.

According to data from the latest auction held today (12 April), yields on 91-day, 182-day and 364-day treasury bills increased by 31 to 33 basis points compared with the previous week. The yield on 91-day bills climbed to 10.16%, while 182-day bills rose to 10.33% and 364-day bills reached 10.39%.

A week earlier, on 6 April, yields stood at 9.85% for 91-day bills, 10.01% for 182-day bills and 10.08% for 364-day bills.

A senior official of a private bank said the rise in yields was primarily due to higher government borrowing from the banking system. "The government is facing a shortage of funds in its treasury, while revenue collection remains below target. As a result, it has increased its reliance on bank borrowing," he told TBS.

In addition to the regular auction calendar, the central bank conducted off-calendar auctions this month, raising Tk10,000 crore through 91-day treasury bills in two separate tenors to meet immediate funding requirements.

Treasury bill yields had previously crossed 11.5% before declining to below 10% in February this year, largely due to improved liquidity in the banking sector.

Economists attribute the renewed upward trend to increased government spending following the formation of a new administration after the national election, including expanded social support programmes.

A central bank official said treasury bill and bond yields are determined by the liquidity conditions in the banking system. "When liquidity supply in banks exceeds government demand, yields decline. Conversely, when demand for funds is higher, yields increase," the official explained.

Bankers noted that although the banking sector is not currently facing a liquidity shortage, the government's higher borrowing requirement has begun to push rates upward.

For the April to June quarter, the government plans to borrow Tk1,10,000 crore through treasury bills, including Tk44,000 crore in 91-day bills, Tk36,000 crore in 182-day bills and Tk30,000 crore in 364-day bills.

In addition, the government aims to raise Tk39,000 crore through treasury bonds to finance medium- and long-term needs.

Treasury bills are short-term government securities with maturities ranging from 91 to 364 days and are considered low-risk investments due to their fixed returns.

Treasury bonds, by contrast, are long-term instruments with maturities ranging from two to 20 years, through which the government raises funds for extended periods.

Bangladesh Autocars Limited has said there is no undisclosed price-sensitive information behind the recent sharp rise in its share price and trading volume, responding to a query from the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) issued on 9 April.

In a statement published on the DSE website today (12 April), the company said it is not aware of any unreported development or material information that could explain the unusual movement in its stock.

The clarification follows a steep rally in the company's shares, which jumped 91% between 8 March and 12 April, reaching Tk240.60. Over the same period, its market capitalisation rose by Tk49.53 crore.

Despite the surge, valuation indicators have raised concerns among market observers. DSE data shows the company's price-to-earnings ratio climbed to 2,406 based on unaudited financials, while the audited price-to-earnings for FY25 stood at 1,336, well above the commonly accepted threshold of around 40.

Analysts say the company's small capital base has contributed to the volatility. It has a paid-up capital of Tk4.32 crore and 43 lakh shares outstanding, limiting free float and making the stock more susceptible to speculative trading. Sponsors and directors hold about 30% of the shares, further tightening supply.

Market participants have also recalled past concerns, noting that several individuals were penalised in 2019 for manipulating the company's share price.

Bangladesh Autocars, originally an automobile business, later expanded into CNG conversion and refuelling, setting up facilities in Tejgaon in 2003. However, industry insiders say margins in the conversion segment have declined in recent years.

The Dhaka stock market began the week on a cautiously optimistic footing, with insurance stocks leading a broad-based rally that helped the benchmark index close in positive territory despite lingering geopolitical concerns and mixed investor sentiment.

The DSEX, the prime index of the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE), gained 13 points to settle at 5,271, while the blue-chip DS30 index edged higher to close at 2,002.

Market activity reflected a moderate level of participation, with 188 issues advancing against 145 decliners, while 66 securities remained unchanged.

Turnover also saw an uptick, rising 8% to Tk837 crore, although overall market capitalisation declined by Tk730 crore, indicating selective buying rather than a broad market surge.

According to EBL Securities, the market managed to post modest gains as investors returned to take positions in December-closing stocks, driven by expectations of favourable corporate earnings announcements. This renewed buying interest helped offset persistent concerns surrounding the fragile global backdrop.

Trading throughout the session remained volatile, with investors alternating between buying and selling positions during the mid-session. However, sentiment improved in the latter half of the day as buyers gradually took control, allowing the indices to close higher.

Within this mixed environment, the insurance sector stood out as the clear outperformer, attracting strong buying interest from short-term investors anticipating earnings-driven gains, according to the EBL securities.

General insurance stocks, in particular, dominated both turnover and price appreciation charts. The sector accounted for 14.2% of total market turnover, making it the most actively traded segment of the day. Engineering and pharmaceutical sectors followed with 13.7% and 11.8% shares of turnover, respectively, but neither matched the momentum seen in insurance counters.

The rally in insurance stocks was reflected prominently in the day's top gainers list, where companies such as Standard Insurance, Reliance Insurance, Pioneer Insurance and Phoenix Insurance all posted near double-digit gains.

Life insurance companies also posted gains, albeit at a more moderate pace, contributing to the sector's overall strength.

Despite the strong performance in insurance, the broader market showed mixed trends. Sectors such as services, telecommunications and financial institutions ended in negative territory, reflecting cautious investor sentiment amid external uncertainties. This divergence highlights a market still searching for clear direction, with gains concentrated in select sectors rather than being evenly distributed.

Among individual stocks, Khan Brothers PP Woven Bag, City Bank, Acme Pesticides, Lovello Ice-cream and Paramount Textile led the turnover chart, indicating continued investor interest in diversified sectors alongside the insurance rally.

Meanwhile, the port city bourse also mirrored the positive sentiment, as the Chittagong Stock Exchange saw its key indices edge higher. The CSCX index rose by 9 points to close at 9,048, while the CASPI index also recorded a marginal gain to settle at 14,774, although turnover declined sharply.

The government needs to allocate more to education, health, and social protection in the upcoming budget, and ensure that the funds are properly utilised to create a better future for every child in the country, development specialists and donor agencies said yesterday.

Speaking at a roundtable, they pointed out that utilisation of development budgets in both sectors has hovered around 50 percent for at least two fiscal years. The discussion, regarding strengthening investment in social sectors in the upcoming budget, was jointly arranged by The Daily Star and Unicef with support from the European Union.

Md Ashiq Iqbal, social policy and economic specialist at Unicef, said in fiscal year 2024-25 (FY25), utilisation of the development budget of education was 47.4 percent while it was 9.8 percent in the health sector.

According to him, the underutilisation of funds pointed to significant room for efficiency gains. “Over 50 percent gain is possible for education and health within the existing envelope.”

But he stressed that efficiency alone would not close the gap, as overall investment remains critically low to begin with.

The social policy expert noted that Bangladesh’s spending on education is one of the lowest shares in the world -- just 1.5 percent of its GDP on education against a government target of 5 percent.

The gap between current and target investment is 70 percent, which has widened over the past decade, he added. “Significant budgetary steps are required to progressively reach the target.”

Health spending stands at 0.7 percent of GDP, also among the world’s lowest. “The same thing is happening in the social protection budget too.”

Iqbal depicted the consequences of the spending failure, citing child welfare data.

Some 6.5 percent of primary school-age children are out of school, he said, adding that attendance falls sharply after primary school while foundational skills improve but remain far too low. “Bangladesh’s primary education progress is in stagnation.”

The Unicef official also said, “serious” risks persist in public health.

Two in five children and one in 13 pregnant women show elevated blood lead levels. The neonatal mortality rate stands at 22 per 1,000. Nearly two-thirds of children aged 6 to 23 months live in food poverty, as social protection coverage shrank in recent times.

In fiscal year 2024-25 (FY25), utilisation of the development budget of education was 47.4 percent while it was 9.8 percent in the health sector
Iqbal welcomed the commitments made by the ruling BNP in its manifesto on education access and quality, child survival, and malnutrition.

He called for allocating at least 2 percent of GDP to quality and inclusive education of children, with increased funding for foundational learning and teacher development, and at least 1.5 percent of GDP for health, with ringfenced vaccine budgets and free medicine for the poor.

Prof Rashed Al Mahmud Titumir, finance adviser to the prime minister, said the government inherited an economy burdened with multiple problems, further aggravated by current global pressures.

He explained that with inflation persisting, the government could not adjust fuel prices and was instead focusing on proper utilisation of spending.

The official also said the government was moving toward a universal social protection system to eliminate inclusion errors, exclusion errors, and fragmentation with one card per family for service delivery.

In addition, he said, for the first time, farmers would also receive cards through scheduled banks, entitling them to multiple subsidies. The government hopes to reduce errors and create fiscal space through these initiatives.

The government was also focusing on transparency and accountability in spending, with budget implementation effectiveness and digitalisation of revenue collection among its priorities, Titumir added.

The PM’s adviser also flagged that conditions attached to loans taken by the previous government from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) were creating pressure that “may not be child-friendly or women-friendly”.

Criticising the United Nations for reportedly not speaking out on these issues, he called for better coordination and harmonisation in the intergovernmental organisation.

Rana Flowers, country representative of Unicef Bangladesh, said she recognised that the government inherited an economy where debt obligations are rising, and economic uncertainties came from the global arena.

She pointed out that the situation demands figuring out how to use limited resources efficiently.

The Unicef official urged the government to focus on improving capital development, child education and social protection.

Rasheda K Choudhury, executive director of the Campaign for Popular Education, said education spending should be treated as an investment in human capital.

“If we curb corruption, if we curb violence against women and if we curb drug addiction, it will free up substantial funds for social sectors,” she said, urging the government to actively court non-resident Bangladeshis for support.

Prof Mustafizur Rahman, a distinguished fellow at the Centre for Policy Dialogue, said the government needs to prioritise its spending and draw up plans to adjust investment in the social sectors.

Gitanjali Singh, country representative of UN Women, called for higher social sector allocations alongside a tracking system to ensure expenditure efficiency.

She also urged the government to raise tax revenue and shift toward progressive taxation, given the constraints on fiscal space.

Prof Abu Eusuf, executive director of Research and Policy Integration for Development (RAPID), called on authorities to publish the actual education budget by subtracting the technology budget from it, and urged the reinstatement of the child budget.

He also asked for the social protection budget to be broken down clearly, separating pension obligations from other programmes.

Furthermore, the policy expert proposed establishing eight top-class hospitals -- one per division -- so that people do not need to travel to Dhaka for specialised care.

On revenue, he noted that tax exemptions amount to 6 percent of GDP and urged the government to widen the tax base without pressuring existing taxpayers.

Mahfuz Anam, editor and publisher of the Daily Star, said he has been covering child issues for many years as a journalist, and the same stories keep recurring.

While the country has made some advances, it remains far from where it needs to be, he added, urging all to use the newspaper to improve child rights issues.

Kishower Amin, programme manager of Public Financial Management, said revenue reform was essential, including reform of the revenue board and full digitalisation of tax systems.

Without higher revenue collection, she said, increases in health and education spending would not be possible.

Mosammat Ayesha Akther, deputy director of the National Academy for Educational Management of the Ministry of Education, Shumon Sengupta, Country Director of Save the Children in Bangladesh, Lole Valentina Lucchese, programme manager of Social Protection of EUD, and Stanley Gwavuya, Chief-SPEAR of Unicef, also talked at the event.

Berger Paints Bangladesh – a publicly traded multinational company – has received approval from the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) to extend the deadline for utilising proceeds from its rights share issuance by one year.

The previous deadline of 31 March 2026 has now been extended to 31 March 2027. The company was formally notified of the approval through a letter issued today (12 April).

Company Secretary Khandker Abu Jafar Sadique told The Business Standard that the company had applied to the regulator seeking additional time.

"We received the approval letter today. The Commission has extended the utilisation period for all project-related expenditures by one year," he said.

Market insiders say the extension will support the company's ongoing expansion initiatives.

The company had earlier submitted a revised proposal to the BSEC seeking changes to the utilisation timeline of the rights issue proceeds. Under the revised plan, the deadlines for spending on land and infrastructure development, machinery and automation, as well as consultancy and other project-related costs have all been extended.

Earlier, the company's Board of Directors also revised the investment plan for establishing its third factory, increasing the total cost from Tk813 crore to Tk980 crore.

The increase was approved to incorporate design changes aimed at improving efficiency through enhanced automation, instrumentation, and a Manufacturing Execution System (MES). Higher construction costs driven by inflation also contributed to the revision.

Berger Paints noted that the adjustment was necessary due to a delay in the commencement of commercial production at its third factory, located at the national special economic zone. The change in the project timeline prompted the company to seek an extension to better align fund utilisation with the updated implementation schedule.

With the regulator's approval now in place, the company will be able to execute the project within a more realistic timeframe.

The share price of the paints maker closed at Tk1,393.10 on the Dhaka stock exchange today.

Berger Paints paid a 500% cash dividend, amounting to Tk231.88 crore, for the fiscal year 2023-24, which ended on 31 March. This represents the highest-ever dividend payout.

The DSE Brokers Association of Bangladesh (DBA) has requested a three-month extension from the capital market regulator to comply with newly introduced margin rules, citing concerns that the current April deadline could trigger massive sell-offs and further destabilise an already distressed market.

In a formal letter to the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission, the DBA – a primary intermediary representing brokerage firms of the Dhaka Stock Exchange – urged the regulator to move the compliance deadline from 30 April to 31 July 2026.

The commission formulated Margin Rules 2025, which came into effect on 1 November, and introduced several critical requirements aimed at strengthening risk management, investor protection, and overall market stability.

However, in the newly introduced rules, three key provisions require compliance within six months by 30 April.

Saiful Islam, president of DBA, told The Business Standard, "The timeframe mandated in the rules is insufficient for compliance; that is why we have sought an extension."

He said that to comply with the rules, brokers would need to sell a significant amount of shares, which would put pressure on the market.

"Currently, the capital market is going through a distressed situation resulting from the US-Iran war. In such a situation, if brokers comply with the rules, the market will suffer further," he added.

In the letter to the commission, the DBA said, "Brokerage houses require adequate time for internal consultations, risk assessment, board approvals, and integration into operational systems. Most brokerage houses are still in the process of finalizing policy and implementation due to a lack of skilled resources specified by the rules and adequate technical support and client feedback."

It said full alignment with risk-based capital adequacy necessitates significant system upgrades, staff training, internal audits, and technological enhancements. Rushed implementation may lead to unintended operational errors or temporary disruptions in margin services, said the DBA.

Regarding the sale adjustment of non-marginable securities from existing margin loan clients, it said thousands of existing loan accounts hold non-marginable securities of significant value. A six-month deadline could force distressed sales, create market volatility, cause avoidable losses on retail investors, and strain liquidity, said the DBA.

Moreover, during the current distress situation of the capital market due to the recent war and fuel crisis made it difficult to impose the rule, as it will affect the distress furthermore, it said. "A timely transition is essential to protect investor interests."

The association further said an additional three-month extension, making the total compliance period nine months up to 31 July 2026, would provide brokerages to complete necessary system and policy upgrades to ensure smooth, non-disruptive adjustment for existing loan clients.

According to of the commission, the total negative equity stood at Tk10,425 crore as of February 2025, including Tk8,005 crore in principal margin loans and Tk2,420 crore in accrued interest.

The stock market after the 2010 crash caught the gigantic negative equity problem as the regulator then verbally ordered firms not to trigger forced selling, according to sources.

A total of 146 firms – 102 brokerage houses of the DSE, 39 merchant banks, and five brokerage firms of the Chittagong Stock Exchange (CSE) – have been struggling with negative equity for years.

Negative equity refers to a deficit in owners' equity, which occurs when the value of assets used to secure margin loans falls below the outstanding loan balance.

Brokerage firms and merchant banks had extended margin loans to clients for share purchases, but the current market value of those shares is far below their purchase price.

Negative equity is created when a broker or merchant bank does not trigger the forced selling of securities that a client buys with money borrowed from the broker or merchant bank.

As a result, lenders have been unable to adjust the loans through share sales, causing the negative equity to persist for years. To ease the mounting pressure on lenders, the regulator has been extending deadlines for adjusting negative equity and maintaining provisioning.

If the loans are not recovered for one year, the firms need to keep provisioning against the total lending amount of principal. But the firms were able to maintain only Tk2,946 crore, and net provision deficit stood at Tk5,058 crore, the data showed.

Bangladesh can no longer afford “surreal” budgets built on inflated projections and political convenience, warned eminent economist Debapriya Bhattacharya.

He urged the government to confront its fiscal realities through difficult but necessary reforms.

“Don’t make a surreal budget -- an illusory one that defies realities. Artificially inflated expenditures and income may be politically saleable at the moment, but everyone knows these numbers cannot be delivered,” he said.

“However unpalatable it may sound, the government does not have the luxury of fiscal profligacy. The guiding factor must be the government’s available fiscal space,” he said.

In an interview with The Daily Star, the distinguished fellow of the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) shared his perspectives on the government’s upcoming budget for the fiscal year 2026-27.

He outlined potential avenues for revenue mobilisation, flagged concerns over public expenditure, and stressed the need for a credible and transparent fiscal framework to navigate mounting economic pressures.

At the core of the upcoming budget lies a critical challenge: how to mobilise adequate revenue without overburdening taxpayers.

According to Debapriya, a significant portion of potential revenue is lost through tax exemptions.

“Income tax exemptions alone account for around 3 percent of GDP. If you add VAT and customs exemptions, total tax expenditures rise to about 6.8 percent,” he said, citing data from the National Board of Revenue (NBR).

But he cautioned against blanket removal.

“The priority should be rationalisation. We need to assess whether these exemptions are disproportionately benefiting certain business groups and whether they are actually improving productivity and competitiveness of the sector concerned,” he said.

Ensuring that small and medium enterprises receive adequate tax support should also be part of that review, he added.

Beyond tax dispensations, the government faces growing fiscal pressure from demand for subsidies and incentives.

“Subsidies account for about 1.8 percent of GDP, with a large share going to the power sector. There are also significant export and agricultural incentives, Debapriya said.

“When you combine tax expenditures, subsidies, and fiscal incentives, the total fiscal exposure reaches around 9 to 10 percent of GDP. Including contingent liabilities, it exceeds 12 percent. That is substantial for an economy which collects less than 7 percent of GDP as total revenue.”

To address the existing revenue gap, Debapriya stressed the importance of expanding the tax base. Out of 1.28 crore tax identification number (TIN) holders, less than 23 lakhs (18 percent) actually pay taxes.

“The principle should be low tax rates with high coverage,” he said. “We need to bring more people into the tax net rather than increasing the burden on a small group.”

He also highlighted the need to distinguish between taxable individuals and taxable income.

“Someone may be within the tax net but have little taxable income, while others with significant income remain under-taxed. That imbalance needs to be corrected.”

He suggested exploring new areas of taxation, including property and inheritance taxes.

“In most developed economies, inheritance tax is used to address intergenerational inequality. You cannot tackle inequality by taxing income alone; asset inequality is far greater in our country,” he said.

Asset recovery, particularly by bringing back stolen resources and making large defaulters pay, could also provide an additional source of revenue if pursued effectively, he added.

SHRINKING FISCAL SPACE

Debapriya warned that Bangladesh’s fiscal space is narrowing, as operating expenditures continue to rise. The newly elected government will have to prudently consider the recommendations made by the National Pay Commission 2025 under the interim government.

“Salaries, subsidies, and interest payments are consuming revenue budget,” he said.

“Debt stress is now emerging as a major macroeconomic challenge.” Currently, the debt servicing liabilities of the government -- domestic and external -- are almost double the amount of total public expenditure for health and education.

He noted that public expectations from the new government remain high. Some early measures based on electoral commitments may appear to be populist in nature. However, these initiatives are being rolled out in phases and remain relatively contained in fiscal terms, he added.

URGENCY OF TAX REFORMS

Debapriya stressed that delays in tax administration reform, particularly within the NBR, could undermine domestic revenue mobilisation.

“If the reform process is not completed quickly, especially the institutional restructuring, tax collection may suffer at a critical time,” he warned.

He pointed out that both revenue collection and public expenditure will peak during the last quarter (April-June) of the current fiscal year.

“Reducing human interaction, minimising discretionary power, and ensuring transparency through digital systems are essential for improving efficiency and accountability,” he said.

For Bangladesh, he concluded, the way forward lies in realism, discipline, and coherent policymaking.

“We often see policy contradictions-- where one measure offsets another. That reduces overall effectiveness,” he said. Thus, there is a need for consistency and coordination.

“The opportunity is still there,” he said. “But it is narrowing.”

The policy expert urged the finance minister to adopt a pragmatic but structured approach to fiscal reform, stressing the need for policymakers to look beyond immediate pressures.

“My suggestion is simple: take the hard path, but place it within a medium-term budgetary framework -- a three-year horizon. That way, people can be assured that short-term difficulties will lead to longer-term stability,” he said.

“You should not be overly concerned about what happens in just one year. The real focus should be on where the national economy would stand before the next national election, he observed.

Using an analogy, he explained the need for short-term restraint to enable long-term gains.

“If you want to make a long jump, you have to step back first, gather momentum, and then leap forward. This is that moment-- we may need to pull back now to create the space for consolidation and future growth.”

STALLED CAPITAL MARKET REFORMS

Debapriya pointed to the long-standing proposal of offloading shares of multinational companies (MNCs), state-owned banks and enterprises (SOEs) to deepen the capital market.

“This idea dates back to the former finance minister Saifur Rahman’s time, but implementation has been continuously aborted,” he said.

The interim government also gave instructions to bring in shares of profitable SOEs and multinational companies to the capital market. The government and the MNCs each were to offload at least 5 percent of their shares. “But to no avail.”

He attributed the failure to bureaucratic resistance, as officials often benefit from maintaining control over these entities. Offloading the shares would have given the capital market some positive vibes and, at the same time, generated some much-needed resources for the government.

On the expenditure side, he expressed concern over the effectiveness of public spending, particularly under the Annual Development Programme (ADP).

“Many projects are delayed, repeatedly revised, and suffer from poor feasibility studies,” he said.

“Protracted land acquisition process and deficient project management, epitomised by inappropriate project directors, are also common.” There are more than 1300 projects under the ADP, one-third of which are six to eleven years old.

He recommended forming a dedicated review body to weed out the “zombie projects” that have been continuing without meaningful progress.

“There is also a need to appoint skilled project directors and, where necessary, bring in professionals from outside the government,” he added.

Improving the quality of spending, he noted, would increase public trust and tax compliance.