Following a lack of consensus on several conditions during recent talks with the International Monetary Fund in Washington, Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury is set to seek Prime Minister Tarique Rahman's guidance on the matter, according to ministry sources.

Sources in the finance ministry said the minister is expected to meet the PM this week, along with members of the delegation who attended the IMF meetings, to brief him on the discussions and decide the next course of action.

Further engagement with the IMF is likely to depend on that guidance.

A senior finance ministry official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told The Business Standard that the IMF has outlined its position on three major issues that Bangladesh is expected to implement from the next fiscal year: eliminating all forms of tax exemptions, withdrawing government subsidies, and allowing the exchange rate to become fully market-based.

While these conditions featured in negotiations with previous administrations, the IMF is now pressing the BNP government for a concrete implementation plan.

"There is a direct relationship between implementing these measures and an increase in consumer expenses. Therefore, decisions on these issues will have to come from the highest political level of the government," the official said.

"If tax exemptions are removed as per the conditions, the tax burden will fall on consumers, increasing costs and potentially fuelling inflation. Similarly, withdrawing subsidies will raise the prices of goods, further increasing expenses," the official added.

Sources at the NBR said its chairman, Abdur Rahman Khan, who attended the IMF meetings in Washington, held a meeting on Sunday (19 April) with senior officials to review the outcomes and explore ways to reduce tax exemptions and boost revenue collection.

According to the latest data published by the NBR for FY2022-23, the revenue board collected Tk3.25 lakh crore while granting tax exemptions worth approximately Tk2.75 lakh crore – nearly 85% of the total collection.

Meanwhile, in the current fiscal year (FY26), government spending on subsidies, incentives and cash support is estimated at Tk1.12 lakh crore.

Concerns over implementation

Given the prevailing economic landscape, economists argue that the new administration will find it challenging to overhaul all tax exemptions and subsidies, urging the government to adopt a more pragmatic approach.

Mustafizur Rahman, a distinguished fellow at the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), told TBS that the government needs to strike a balance.

"The government must increase revenue. However, it will be difficult to eliminate all exemptions at once. A realistic decision should be reached through discussions," he said.

"Tax exemptions exist not only in Bangladesh but also in other countries. These exemptions need to be rationalised. If all are removed at the IMF's insistence, it may create distrust among investors who have made investments based on government commitments," he added.

He suggested negotiating a two- to three-year timeline with the IMF. "Failure to reach an understanding with the IMF would send a negative signal. It may become difficult to secure loans from other development partners," Mustafizur added.

An NBR official told TBS that if IMF conditions are implemented, many existing exemptions would no longer be allowed. This could lead to the imposition of VAT on essential services such as agriculture, food, education and healthcare, raising costs for consumers.

Another senior NBR official warned that removing exemptions would bring several key sectors under the tax net, adding that even remittances could potentially be taxed.

Gradual reduction underway

Over the last three years, the NBR has been implementing a phased plan to curb tax exemptions, retaining them only for essential sectors and consumer-facing goods while introducing sunset clauses to ensure other incentives expire within a set timeframe.

In income tax, rates have been increased in sectors such as poultry and fisheries, effectively reducing exemptions.

Tax incentives for local manufacturing of products such as electronics, home appliances, mobile phones and semiconductors are also being gradually phased out, with timelines for full withdrawal outlined in last year's budget.

The standard VAT rate currently stands at 15%, and any lower rate applied to a sector is treated as a tax exemption.

To support export competitiveness, exporters benefit from reduced tax rates. They are exempt from import duties on raw materials and do not pay VAT on locally sourced inputs. Export-oriented firms are subject to a corporate tax rate of 12%, compared with 27% for non-listed companies.

The government raised fuel oil prices Saturday midnight to rein in mounting subsidies. The adjustment has had an immediate knock-on effect on transport fares and commodity prices, reflecting Bangladesh's heavy reliance on diesel-powered logistics.

The key question, however, is whether these cost increases are proportionate to the fuel price hike or significantly inflated. Take freight rates as an example. The cost of hiring a covered van from Dhaka to Chattogram jumped 30-40% to Tk20,000-Tk25,000 on Monday, up from Tk14,000-Tk15,000 on Friday.

Pickup fares from Bogura and Jashore have also risen from Tk12,000 to Tk15,500. This is despite diesel prices rising by around 15% to Tk115 per litre.

A typical truck or covered van consumes roughly 80-100 litres of diesel on the Dhaka-Chattogram route. Even at the higher end, the fuel cost increase would be about Tk1,500 per trip. In practice, however, freight charges have gone up by Tk6,000-Tk10,000.

"There is a shortage of vehicles due to fuel constraints. Those still operating are losing time refuelling, often stopping at multiple filling stations," said Syed Md Bakhtiar, executive president of the Bangladesh Truck and Covered Van Owners' Association.

In Dhaka's wholesale hubs, these inflated overheads have translated into immediate hikes for daily staples, leaving low- and middle-income households to tighten their belts. Egg prices, for instance, have risen by Tk2-Tk2.5 per piece, due to higher transport costs.

But the actual impact of the fuel hike should be no more than 20 paisa per egg, according to Mohammad Halim, a wholesale trader at Moghbazar.

Rice prices have increased by Tk4 to Tk6 per kg over the past week. Miniket rice is now selling at Tk82 to Tk85 per kg, up from Tk78, while Najirshail has risen to Tk88 to Tk94 per kg. Local lentils have increased by Tk10 per kg, now selling at Tk150 to Tk160.

Edible oil and sugar prices have also climbed. Loose soybean oil is selling at Tk170 to Tk175 per litre, while sugar has risen to Tk135 to Tk145 per kg amid supply shortages.

Vegetable prices have climbed across the board, particularly for items sourced from outside Dhaka. Brinjal now sells at Tk100-Tk120 per kg, while most other vegetables, including gourds, beans and leafy varieties, have moved into the Tk70-Tk120 per kg range. Even staple items like tomatoes, carrots, onions and cabbage have edged higher, tightening household budgets.

Spice prices have risen more sharply in comparison, with cardamom seeing the steepest jump, nearly doubling to Tk4,500–Tk6,099 per kg. Cumin, cinnamon, cloves and bay leaf have also recorded steady increases, adding sustained pressure on kitchen costs.

While poultry has remained a relative silver lining – with Sonali chicken at Tk360 to Tk380 and broiler chicken at Tk170 to Tk180 per kg – the fish market has seen a broad increase of Tk40 to Tk50 per kg.

Large tilapia is now selling at Tk300 per kg, rohu at Tk450, and pangash at Tk200, while the prized hilsa is fetching between Tk2,200 and Tk3,000 per kg.

Beyond transport, wholesalers like Khalek Uddin at Moulvibazar say that higher energy prices are driving up cold storage and packaging costs, further narrowing the margins.

At Karwan Bazar, trader Nurul Islam noted that the relentless rise in procurement costs has left merchants with little choice but to pass the buck to consumers, who now face an increasingly difficult battle to manage basic food expenses.

Once upon a time, banks in Bangladesh were regarded as highly reliable financial institutions. Any walk-in customer could open an account at a nearby branch and deposit their money without much concern for risk, as the perceived risk was virtually zero.

Financial Institutions (FIs), however, were considered less trustworthy. Only individuals with personal connections to FI officials or those familiar with their operational framework and oversight by the central bank, Bangladesh Bank, were willing to place funds there—mainly to earn higher returns than banks offered.

Public confidence in FIs deteriorated following the collapse of several institutions over the past decade. Although banks continued operations during this period, the acute liquidity crisis of Farmers Bank Ltd. in 2017 significantly undermined public trust in the banking sector.

This incident compelled people to reconsider the safety of keeping their savings in banks, intensifying concerns over the sector’s credibility and stability. Nevertheless, depositors did not withdraw their money en masse. Many banks, however, have since experienced prolonged financial distress and face substantial challenges in managing operational funds.

The required regulatory measures in 2024–25 constrained fund inflows, slowing deposit growth and, in some cases, increasing withdrawals, leading to a major setback for the sector and further erosion of public confidence.

Numerous factors contribute to vulnerabilities in the banking sector, most of which fall under the broad umbrella of corporate governance failure. Corporate governance encompasses institutional structure, internal systems, policies, implementation mechanisms, oversight processes, internal controls, audit functions, and consistent reporting to Boards and regulators.

While structural frameworks often align with global standards, deficiencies persist in implementation and oversight. Weaknesses in monitoring, execution of responsibilities by management and Boards, and ineffective audit functions—including internal audit—reflect a gap between formal compliance and the competence required for robust governance.

Senior management and boards should ensure strict compliance with policies across all stages of credit and investment operations:

(a) initial screening, including checkpoints such as the coachability of owners, legal compliance, financial performance, and sectoral outlook;

(b) rigorous due diligence covering financial and marketing performance, legal compliance, risk assessment, and management frameworks, concluding with structured investment decisions addressing repayment terms, security coverage, and monitoring as per agreement and covenant clauses;

(c) ongoing monitoring of borrowers’ operations and financial performance, ensuring adherence to agreements;

(d) effective functioning of Internal Control and Compliance Departments and Audit Committees; and

(e) implementation of early alert systems to identify and mitigate emerging risks.

Management must adhere strictly to these policies, while Boards should review implementation through regular reports and provide guidance, exercising oversight without interference, including political influence. Such processes were grossly neglected in vulnerable banks.

In practice, these policies were often only on paper, with many investments pre-decided due to personal connections or political influence (“name-lending”). Investment memos were sometimes based on illegal or non-compliant financial statements, with insufficient knowledge of the legally acceptable requirements under the Companies Act 1994.

Banks failing to comply with rigorous policies accumulated poor-quality loan portfolios and generated misleading reports that obscured asset classifications, creating persistent warning signals. The undue flexibility of Boards and regulators, instead of enforcing early corrective measures, contributed to recurring weaknesses, ultimately bringing banks to the brink of collapse.

All distressed banks should undergo independent compliance audits to identify wrongdoing and strengthen governance.

To restore public trust, they must ensure adequate capitalization, timely depositor repayment, prudent lending, regulatory compliance, transparent reporting, robust risk management, strong internal controls, and accountable, ethical leadership with effective oversight by Boards, audit committees, and regulators.

The writer is a fellow member of ICAB and partner at Basu Banerjee Nath & Co., Chartered Accountants.

The American Apparel and Footwear Association (AAFA), along with several other organisations, has urged the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the US government’s chief trade body, not to impose any new tariffs on countries currently under investigation over production capacity.

In a letter sent to the USTR on April 15, the AAFA warned that additional tariffs on supplying countries could raise costs for American consumers.

Last month, the USTR launched an investigation into 60 economies, including Bangladesh, over alleged failures to address issues related to production capacity and forced labour.

Bangladesh is scheduled to take part in a virtual USTR hearing on the matter on April 29.

The AAFA said in its letter that the US already imposes relatively high tariffs on textiles, apparel, footwear and accessories, even though these products contain significant US value, including intellectual property, raw materials such as leather, and textile inputs like yarns and fabrics.

As a result, textiles, apparel, footwear and travel goods face higher effective tariff rates than most other sectors.

The letter added that this burden disproportionately affects the industry, even though many of these goods are no longer produced in commercial quantities in the US.

It further said that although some countries identified in the investigation may run trade surpluses in certain product categories, these do not necessarily reflect structural excess capacity or practices that distort or restrict US commerce.

The concept of structural excess capacity does not reflect conditions in the US industry, it added.

Instead, the AAFA said, these trade flows are shaped by globally integrated supply chains, where production capacity is developed and used based on business decisions, long-term customer relationships and changing demand patterns.

The association urged the USTR to avoid any action that would further increase tariffs on these goods.

It also said the broad, multi-country investigation appears to be aimed at a pre-determined outcome rather than a focused review of specific practices.

The AAFA added that the investigation may be used to recreate tariff rates and structures that existed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA).

It also cited Treasury Secretary Bessent, who said, “We will get back to the same tariff level for the countries. It will be just in a less direct and slightly more convoluted manner.”

The association warned that this approach could weaken the government’s ability to properly investigate and address specific foreign trade barriers.

In conclusion, the letter said the industry should not face unintended negative impacts from these investigations. It warned against further tariffs on an already heavily taxed sector, saying such measures would raise costs for American families while doing little to boost domestic production due to existing capacity and investment limits.

BANGLADESH EXPORTS SHOW STRONG GROWTH IN US MARKET

For example, in 2025, clothing exports -- accounting for 86 percent of Bangladesh’s total exports to the US -- rose by 12.36 percent to 266.15 crore square metre equivalents (SME). In value terms, exports increased by 11.75 percent to $8.20 billion compared with 2024, according to the USTR.

Footwear exports from Bangladesh reached 1.78 crore pairs, a rise of 76.43 percent in 2025 compared with 2024. In value terms, footwear exports grew by 52.67 percent to $391.77 million.

Travel goods exports increased by 26.32 percent to 2.15 crore pieces in 2025. Their value also rose by 35.44 percent to $12.37 million, the USTR said.

In another letter, the Forced Labor Working Group (FLWG) of the AAFA, along with 17 other trade organisations, urged the USTR not to impose tariffs linked to forced labour investigations.

They said companies that have invested heavily in compliance systems and are working to eliminate forced labour in supply chains should not be penalised through broad tariff measures that do not distinguish between responsible firms and bad actors.

The letter added that, under Agreements on Reciprocal Trade (ART) and related framework negotiations with the US, several economies -- including some covered by the investigation --have already committed to protecting labour rights and banning imports made with forced labour.

A consistent theme in global oil markets since the US and Israel attacked Iran is that the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz will be short-lived, and therefore so will the disruption to the supply of crude and refined products.

That expectation has consistently been reflected in pricing for crude oil futures, which have risen sharply since ​the conflict began on February 28, but are still well short of the highs reached in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

In effect, the paper crude market has believed ‌US President Donald Trump’s slew of social media posts since the bombing started that the conflict will be short, and result in Iran accepting US terms for a peace deal.

The problem is that the reality on the ground doesn’t match the social media claims, and the longer the Strait of Hormuz remains closed the more severe the energy crisis will become, especially in Asia.

Brent crude futures fell 9.1 percent on April 17 to end at $90.38 a barrel in the wake of Trump’s post that the Strait of Hormuz was fully ​open. But they jumped 6.9 percent in early Asian trade on Monday to $96.59 when it became clear the waterway was still closed.

The latest round of optimism that the Strait of Hormuz would re-open began after a Trump social media post ​on April 17 that the waterway that carried as much as 20 percent of the world’s crude oil and refined product supply prior to the war was “fully open and ready for full passage.”

Trump’s assertion was even backed by elements within the Iranian government, but the optimism proved short-lived as Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps moved to keep the strait closed, given Trump’s decision to maintain a US ​naval blockade of Iranian ports.

There are several questions that the market should be asking about the current situation.

Does this mean that the Strait of Hormuz is now effectively being closed by the United States?

Would it re-open if Trump ended ​the blockade of Iranian ports?

Is there sufficient trust between the warring parties to accept a principle that the strait should be open to all?

Who is really in control in Iran, and are they willing to negotiate with a US administration that has a track record of abandoning agreements?

While these are issues for debate, the only fact that really matters is that the strait isn’t open and the risk of attack is likely to keep it that way for the hundreds of vessels waiting either side of the crucial waterway.

SUPPLY STRESS

In ​the meantime crude oil and refined product supply chains are becoming more stressed, especially in Asia, which was the destination for about 80 percent of all the shipments via the Strait of Hormuz prior to the conflict.

While crude futures have ​largely traded on the daily news flow and an underlying optimism that the conflict will be of a limited duration, physical oil and refined products have reflected a more dire near-term supply situation.

Refined products in the Asian trading hub of Singapore have ‌remained at extreme levels, with jet fuel ending at $204.13 a barrel on April 17, more than double the $93.45 close on February 27, the day before the war started.

Gasoil, the building block for diesel, ended at $145.27 a barrel on April 17, up 59 percent since the conflict started, although down from the record $199.89 hit on March 30.

The problem for Asia is that the worst of the supply crunch is probably still to come, as crude shipments into the region fall sharply.

Asia’s seaborne crude imports are estimated at 20.62 million barrels per day (bpd) in April, down from 22.36 million bpd in March, according to data compiled by commodity analysts Kpler. However, both March and April are well down on the 26.76 million bpd average for the ​three months prior to the attacks on Iran.

The situation ​is especially worrying for countries that are major refining centres and exporters of fuels to the region.

Singapore’s crude imports are forecast at 388,000 bpd in April, down from 715,000 bpd in March and 980,000 bpd in January.

South Korea’s crude imports are estimated at 1.68 million bpd in April, down from 2.24 million bpd in March and 2.74 million bpd in January.

Japan’s April imports are expected to be ​921,000 bpd, a drop from 1.63 million bpd in March and 2.16 million bpd in January.

Only India is bucking the trend, with April imports estimated by Kpler ​at 4.67 million bpd, up from 4.45 million bpd in March, but below January’s 5.15 million bpd.

India has been able to secure Russian oil to help offset the loss of barrels from the Middle East, with 1.64 million bpd arriving in April, up from 1.06 million bpd in February.

Notwithstanding India’s success in sourcing crude from other producers, the problem is that Asia’s supplies are coming under strain and it’s likely that refinery processing rates will have to be cut in coming weeks.

It is when the supply of refined ⁠products becomes more ​constrained that the real economic impact of Trump’s war of choice will be felt.

The question for the paper crude oil market is how ​long can it maintain the hope that the conflict will be over soon, when the reality seems to be heading in the other direction?

Finance authorities are set to seek Prime Minister's guidance as to how far the government can go in complying with the International Monetary Fund conditions to secure hard-term budget-support funds.

Finance Minister Amir Khasru Mahmud Chowdhury will lead his team at the consultation today with Prime Minister Tarek Rahman, officials say, as the IMF lending terms have seemingly outwitted negotiators.

A senior government official who attended last week's Spring Meetings in Washington says the decision has become increasingly complex as the current economic situation leaves little room to fully comply with all the IMF conditions.Global economy analysis

"It is now a political decision rather than an economic one -- whether the government will accept the IMF conditions," the official told The Financial Express.

Key IMF strings binding the release of the next two tranches from a lending package in June 2026 include withdrawal of subsidies, raising the tax-to-GDP ratio to 9.2 per cent, and adopting a market-based exchange rate.

Given the ongoing Middle East conflict, sluggish investment, rising fuel prices, persistent inflation, and a downward trend in exports, the government is unlikely to take any drastic measures in the upcoming budget, the official adds.

"We have found the IMF quite rigid on its conditions this time. It wants the withdrawal of all tax exemptions and the introduction of a single VAT rate, which appears difficult to implement under current circumstances," the official notes.

However, IMF officials have urged the government to undertake reforms early in its tenure to minimize future challenges.

Officials at the National Board of Revenue (NBR) say achieving a tax-to-GDP ratio of 9.2 per cent by FY2026-27 would require an additional Tk 2.0 trillion in revenue collection within the next year.Politics

At a recent coordination council meeting, the government set an NBR revenue target of Tk 6.04 trillion -- an increase by nearly Tk 1.0 trillion from the current fiscal year.

However, the revenue officials fear a revenue shortfall of around Tk 1.0 trillion in the ongoing fiscal year.

Until February, the NBR had collected Tk 2.51 trillion, roughly 50 per cent of the revised target of Tk 5.03 trillion.

Government insiders say the situation has become more complicated as the IMF has taken a firm stance on three key issues that the Ministry of Finance cannot decide on its own.

External financing from multilateral development partners largely depends on IMF assessments and approval. Following the IMF meetings, the NBR chairman held an emergency meeting Sunday to assess the feasibility of complying with the dos.

A senior NBR official has told the FE that achieving the targeted increase in the tax-GDP ratio -- from the current 6.5 per cent to 9.2 per cent -- would require around 50 per cent growth in tax revenue.

"We find these conditions difficult to implement in the current economic environment," the official says.

He adds that scrapping time-bound tax exemptions may not be legally feasible either, while withdrawing subsidies is not practical at a time when the economy is under strain due to the impact of the Mideast conflict.Financial news subscription

"The economy does not have the capacity to absorb a complete withdrawal of tax exemptions at this stage."

However, the IMF has advised the government to implement difficult reforms early in its tenure for long-term economic stability.

"We cannot increase revenue overnight simply by curbing tax evasion or recovering arrears," the NBR official says in clear terms.

The revenue board is currently conducting intensive internal assessments to evaluate the potential impact of implementing the IMF conditions.

Dr Fahmida Khatun, executive director of the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), suggests the government should prepare a roadmap to implement IMF conditions.

She, however, finds it difficult to implement all conditions by next year, such as withdrawal of all tax exemptions.

"We need IMF funds but the government needs to be cautious as economy is not prepared now to absorb the pressure," she adds.Banking sector news

There are many sectors that need tax benefits and fiscal support to grow, she notes.

The government is facing mounting financial pressure as revenue collection continues to fall short of expectations, widening the budget deficit.

Instalments of loans from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are also being delayed due to unmet conditions, leaving the state with limited fiscal space for expenditure.

As a result, the government is increasingly relying on borrowing. It has already taken a record amount of loans from the banking sector and has sought more than $3.25 billion in fresh loans from development partners. Meanwhile, soaring global fuel prices have reduced the government’s ability to sell fuel domestically at subsidised rates, forcing it to raise prices in the local market.

Despite weak revenue inflows, the government is preparing an ambitious budget for the upcoming fiscal year. Expenditure, however, remains unavoidable, with debt servicing obligations—both domestic and foreign—continuing to rise. Data suggests the government is now operating under constraints comparable to a financially stretched middle-income household.

According to the National Board of Revenue (NBR), the revenue shortfall for the first eight months of the current fiscal year stood at Tk71,472 crore. Against a target of Tk325,802 crore, only Tk254,330 crore has been collected—around 22 per cent below target. Although nearly Tk300,000 crore needs to be collected in the remaining four months to meet the goal, the reality appears far from achievable. Monthly collections have not exceeded Tk40,000 crore so far, while more than Tk75,000 crore per month would be required to meet the target.

All three major revenue heads—income tax, VAT and import duties—have underperformed, with a particularly large gap in income tax collection. A significant number of taxpayers remain outside the tax net. Of approximately 12.8 million Taxpayer Identification Number (TIN) holders, only 4.6 million have filed returns, highlighting structural weaknesses in the tax system. Lower import duty collection and sluggish business and development activities have also contributed to reduced VAT receipts.

Despite declining income, government expenditure remains high, covering salaries and allowances for public employees, infrastructure development and other sectors—even after austerity measures. With revenue underperforming, the government has been compelled to borrow heavily from the banking system.

Data from Bangladesh Bank shows that government borrowing from banks has surged to nearly Tk109,000 crore in just nine months of the fiscal year, already exceeding the annual target. Around Tk56,000 crore was borrowed between January and March alone. Analysts warn that continued reliance on bank borrowing could crowd out private sector credit, dampening investment and employment, and ultimately slowing GDP growth.

External borrowing is also on the rise. According to the Economic Relations Division (ERD), Bangladesh’s total foreign debt now exceeds Tk23,00000 crore. Even so, the government has sought an additional $3 billion from development partners.

Repayment obligations remain pressing. Sources indicate that Bangladesh will need to repay around $26 billion in external debt over the next five years—significantly higher than in previous periods.

Although the government secured a $4.75 billion loan from the IMF, further disbursements are uncertain due to unmet conditions. During recent talks in Washington, the IMF did not guarantee the release of the next tranche, increasing risks to budget implementation.

In this context, the government has moved to adjust fuel prices. While it has repeatedly stated that prices would not be increased for now, rising global costs have made it difficult to continue selling fuel at lower domestic rates without incurring substantial losses. Pressure from the IMF to reduce such subsidies has also played a role. The price hike may offer some fiscal relief but could also fuel inflation, economists warn, creating further economic challenges.

The government is now planning a budget exceeding Tk925,000 crore for the 2026–27 fiscal year. The larger outlay reflects commitments to election pledges, expansion of social safety net programmes, a new pay structure and increased subsidies. However, with revenue growth lagging, the budget deficit could approach 5 per cent of GDP—raising concerns about macroeconomic stability.

A growing share of expenditure is being absorbed by interest payments and subsidies. Around Tk122,000 crore has been allocated for interest payments in the current fiscal year, a figure expected to rise further. Subsidy requirements, particularly in the energy sector, are also increasing due to global price trends, alongside rising development expenditure.

Business leaders and economists caution that without appropriate policy measures, Bangladesh risks falling into a debt trap. They stress the need to boost revenue collection, modernise the tax system, curb tax evasion and create a more investment-friendly environment. They also emphasise careful selection of development projects and prioritisation of spending.

President of the Bangladesh Knitwear Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BKMEA), Mohammad Hatem, warned that excessive bank borrowing could ultimately harm the economy, adding that repaying such large debts could become a major challenge for the government.

Distinguished Fellow of the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), Dr Mustafizur Rahman, said avoiding a debt trap should be the government’s primary objective. “While borrowing may be necessary under current circumstances, the focus must be on resource mobilisation and increasing revenue,” he noted.

Former Lead Economist of the World Bank’s Dhaka office, Dr Zahid Hussain, observed that although demand for long-term, low-interest loans is rising, borrowing alone cannot resolve the situation. He stressed the need for a clear assessment of macroeconomic pressures, including the balance of payments. Rising import costs, declining export earnings and risks to remittance inflows are adding to the strain, alongside growing fiscal deficits and subsidy burdens. Addressing these challenges, he said, will require coordinated crisis management, continued reforms and strong support from development partners.

Source: Kaler Kantho

The owners of 21 private inland container depots (ICDs) have announced an 8.5 percent increase in various container handling charges, effective from April 19.

Operators of lighter vessels transporting imported cargoes from Chattogram port’s outer anchorage to different destinations on inland water routes will meet with government authorities on April 22 to discuss freight adjustments.

The Bangladesh Inland Container Depots Association (BICDA), in a circular issued on Sunday, announced the increase in six types of container handling charges at ICDs by 8.5 percent following a 15 percent rise in diesel prices, from Tk 100 to Tk 115 per litre.

The charges include empty container transportation between Chattogram port and ICD, empty container transportation between Patenga Container Terminal and ICD, empty container lift-on or lift-off, export goods stuffing package, export loaded container verified gross mass and import goods delivery package.

There are 21 privately owned ICDs located in and around the port city. Almost 93 percent of export-loaded containers are handled by ICDs before shipment through Chattogram port.

BICDA Secretary General Md Ruhul Amin Sikder said prime movers and all container handling equipment at ICDs run on diesel, with ICDs requiring over 70,000 litres of diesel per day.

“Following the diesel price hike and subsequent cost increase, there is no alternative to adjusting charges in order to maintain smooth operational activities,” Sikder said.

Currently, ICDs charge on average Tk 2,046 for each empty container transported between the port and ICDs, while the export goods stuffing package charge stands at around Tk 7,424 per 20-foot container and Tk 9,900 per 40-foot container.

Sikder noted that charges vary as ICDs individually fix rates through negotiation with clients.

Khairul Alam Suzan, former vice president of the Bangladesh Freight Forwarders Association (BAFFA), said ICDs had already increased their charges by 20 percent only four months ago.

He pointed out that Chittagong Port Authority (CPA) increased its tariffs by over 41 percent since December, adding that the cost of import and export businesses would sharply rise with the fresh hike in ICD charges.

Officials from different shipping agents opined that the newly revised ICD tariffs would adversely impact trade.

Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA) Director SM Abu Tayyab expressed resentment over BICDA’s unilateral decision to raise tariffs without consulting stakeholders.

Tayyab said a government coordination committee needs to discuss the issue with stakeholders to assess the actual impact of the fuel price hike on ICD operations before any adjustment in charges.

He added that following recent hikes in port tariffs, ICD tariffs, and freight increases by shipping lines, the fresh hike by ICDs would badly hurt the already struggling readymade garment sector.

Meanwhile, the Director General of the Department of Shipping will meet with stakeholders in Dhaka on Wednesday to discuss adjusting lighter vessel freights due to the diesel price hike.

Bangladesh Water Transport Coordination Cell Convener Shafiq Ahmed said a lighter vessel requires on average 3,500 litres of diesel for a round trip from Chattogram to Dhaka.

Currently, freight for transporting cement clinker in a lighter vessel from Chattogram to Dhaka stands at Tk 550 per tonne, he said.

The capital market extended its losing streak for a second consecutive session today (20 April) as investor confidence remained under significant pressure.

A combination of domestic macroeconomic shifts and geopolitical uncertainty continues to weigh on the bourse, with the benchmark DSEX index of the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) plunging by 15 points to settle at 5,232.

The blue-chip DS30 index followed a similar trajectory, dropping 10 points to close at 1,980, reflecting a cautious risk-off sentiment among both retail and institutional participants.

Market analysts at EBL Securities said in their daily review that the recent adjustment in domestic fuel prices has rekindled concerns over rising production costs and broader inflationary pressures in the economy. This domestic factor, coupled with persistent uncertainty surrounding ceasefire negotiations in the Middle East conflict, has significantly dampened the risk appetite of investors.

The broad-based selling pressure resulted in a substantial erosion of the market's total valuation, with the market capitalisation of the premier bourse dropping by approximately Tk3,000 crore in a single day.

The trading session was characterised by persistent volatility from the opening bell. While buyers made sporadic attempts to reverse the downward trend during the mid-session, the recovery efforts were ultimately overwhelmed by an intensifying wave of selling, according to the EBL Securities.

By the end of the day, the market breadth remained heavily skewed toward the bears, as 207 issues declined compared to 120 advancing, while 62 securities remained unchanged. Despite the fall in prices, market activity saw a slight uptick, with total turnover on the DSE inching up to Tk824 crore.

On the sectoral front, the engineering sector continued to lead the turnover chart, accounting for 17.5% of the day's total trading volume. This was followed by the textile sector at 14.8% and the pharmaceutical sector at 11.8%.

Performance across most sectors remained weak, led by a 1.2% drop in travel and leisure, while jute and cement each declined by 1.0%. In contrast, services and real estate stood out with a 1.5% gain, and tannery and textile posted modest gains.

Several high-cap and influential stocks exerted significant downward pressure on the index during the session, with Islami Bank, Square Pharmaceuticals, City Bank, IDLC Finance, and Uttara Bank emerging as the key contributors to the DSEX's decline.

In terms of liquidity and trading volume, Summit Alliance Port emerged as the most traded stock, followed by City Bank, Dominage Steel, Acme Pesticides, and Khan Brothers PP Woven Bag.

Among individual performers, Nahee Aluminum topped the gainers' list by hitting the 10% upper circuit limit, followed by Evince Textiles and Coppertech Industries. On the losing end, IDLC Finance was the top loser with a 7.75% decline, followed by Hamid Fabrics and several non-bank financial institutions including Fareast Finance, International Leasing, and Premier Leasing.

The bearish sentiment was mirrored at the Chittagong Stock Exchange (CSE), where both key indices ended in the red.

The CSCX declined by 11 points to reach 9,023, while the CASPI shed 27 points to close the day at 14,724. Turnover at the port city bourse also saw a decline, settling at Tk34 crore.

The Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission has approved a proposal by state-owned Titas Gas Transmission and Distribution Company Limited to issue irredeemable, non-cumulative preference shares worth approximately Tk282.75 crore.

According to a disclosure on the Dhaka Stock Exchange today (20 April), Titas Gas will issue 282,747,469 preference shares at a face value and issue price of Tk10 each, amounting to Tk2,827,474,690. The shares will be issued in favour of the Finance Division of the Ministry of Finance.

Today, the company's share price closed at Tk17 on the DSE.

Titas Gas said the proposal was unanimously approved by shareholders at its 5th Extraordinary General Meeting (EGM) held on 24 December 2025. It was later submitted to the regulator, which granted approval on 15 April 2026.

The move aims to align the company's capital structure with equity support provided by the government. According to Titas, the government had injected a total of Tk282.75 crore into the company as equity up to 30 June 2023, which will now be formally converted into share capital through the issuance.

A committee comprising officials from the finance ministry, Titas Gas, and the Financial Reporting Council (FRC) had earlier, at a meeting on 16 April 2023, decided to issue irredeemable non-cumulative preference shares in favour of the government.

The structure is intended to offer flexibility to the financially strained company.

Under the proposed terms, the government will receive dividends on the preference shares when the company records profits, but no dividends will be paid in years when it incurs losses.

The irredeemable preference shares will remain on the company's books permanently without increasing its paid-up or common share capital, while their non-cumulative nature means Titas will not be required to pay any unpaid dividends from previous years to the government.

Unlike ordinary shares, preference shares do not confer ownership. Instead, they give holders priority over common shareholders in receiving dividends and claims in the event of liquidation. The committee has also set guidelines governing the issuance of such shares and dividend payments.

Financial performance

Titas Gas reported a narrowing of losses in the July-December period, supported by higher operational income and a lower tax deduction rate, which reduced its overall tax burden.

Total revenue rose to Tk19,072 crore during the period, up from Tk17,473 crore a year earlier. Despite the increase, the company posted a loss of Tk390.32 crore, significantly lower than the Tk711.44 crore loss recorded in the corresponding period.

Meanwhile, net operating cash flow per share (NOCFPS) stood at Tk6.07 at the end of December 2025, mainly due to higher payments for gas purchases compared with collections from gas sales.

The government currently holds 75% of Titas Gas's ordinary shares. Institutional investors own 14.95%, while foreign investors hold 0.03% and general investors 10.02%.

On 2 March 2020, the Financial Reporting Council directed that any capital received as share money deposit – included under equity but not refundable – must be converted into share capital within six months of receipt. Such amounts are also to be considered in the calculation of earnings per share.

Economist Debapriya Bhattacharya yesterday urged the government to explain the intention behind recent revisions to the Bank Resolution Act, which now allow former owners to regain control of five Islamic banks being merged amid a severe liquidity crisis due to past irregularities.

At a session of the annual economists’ conference at BRAC Centre Inn in Dhaka, he said political authorities must set out their position in parliament and issue a clear statement explaining their intent.

Earlier this month, the House passed the revised Bank Resolution Act 2026, paving the way for former owners of the merging banks to reclaim control under relatively easy terms. The move has been widely viewed as a reversal of the interim government’s banking reform drive.

Under the law, former directors or owners can reclaim control by paying 7.5 percent of the funds injected by the government or the Bangladesh Bank upfront. The remaining 92.5 percent is to be paid within two years at 10 percent simple interest.

“I have no problem with the policy itself, but I want clarity,” Debapriya said at the conference organised by the South Asian Network on Economic Modeling (Sanem).

He said, “Even the central bank governor has not given a statement on this. So, instead of relying on our own interpretations, the authorities must speak.”

Debapriya, convenor of the Citizen’s Platform for SDGs, Bangladesh, said, “I am worried. I have already said over the past couple of days that we need a political statement on this issue. We need a discussion in parliament.”

“What we are doing now, what you, I, and others are saying, is based on our goodwill, but it is still just interpretation,” he said.

“I believe in political interpretation backed by commitment. That commitment should ensure that past problems or actors do not return. And this issue is not limited to today; it will affect the media tomorrow, and then oil and LNG imports the day after. It extends beyond banking; it affects the entire economy,” he further said.

“We have seen such patterns before. That is why I am looking for a clear political explanation, and wondering why the political leadership is silent,” added Debapriya, also a distinguished fellow at the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD).

He said the situation highlights a broader failure to pursue meaningful reform. If reforms are delayed further and pushed into a Five-Year Plan, the approach would be misplaced.

“Unfortunately, although I am also a member of that planning committee, I must say that now is the time for consolidation and reform in order to move forward,” he said.

Without reforms, including stronger revenue generation, better public spending and balanced deficit financing, he asked where the economy would go.

He also referred to findings in a white paper on the economy published by the interim government, which highlighted how deals were struck between politicians and businesspeople, especially around the Prime Minister’s Office.

Businesspeople observed such arrangements and thought, “Why shouldn’t I have a share in this?” he said, adding that some then tried to cut transaction costs by becoming directly involved, including awarding contracts to family members. Eventually, some even entered parliament themselves.

On the capital market, he suggested including not only multinational companies but also state-owned enterprises.

This, the economist said, could achieve two goals at once: raising funds in the short term, even if it feels like selling family silver, and strengthening the quality of listed shares to make the market more vibrant.

Researchers, businesspeople, economists, trade analysts and students from home and abroad took part in the discussion, which was moderated by Selim Raihan, executive director of Sanem.

‘BANK DEFAULT NOW EMBEDDED IN FINANCIAL SYSTEM’

At the session, Professor Rehman Sobhan, chairman of CPD, said banking reforms have been discussed since the time of President Ziaur Rahman, yet major defaults began then and have continued through successive governments.

Although it was once suggested that defaulters should not contest elections, laws were later introduced allowing them to do so if they made a 5 percent down payment and rescheduled loans.

This has resulted in a large group of defaulters in parliament who, he said, help block meaningful reform.

The CPD chairman added that bank default has now become embedded in the structure of the financial system and cannot be addressed simply by targeting a few crony capitalists.

He said legislation alone is not enough. Reforms must be translated into operational measures implemented by the bureaucracy, with outcomes monitored on the ground.

Prof Rehman Sobhan added that an active opposition should work with civil society to act as a watchdog over reform implementation. Ultimately, he said, the government must show genuine intent and build accountability from the Prime Minister’s Office down to the field level.

He said the ultimate test of accountability lies in the government’s willingness to subject its performance to a free, fair and inclusive election.

Mohammad Muslim Chowdhury, former Comptroller and Auditor General of Bangladesh, said that although banks such as Sonali, Janata, Agrani and Rupali were converted into public limited companies two decades ago, they continue to function largely as extensions of the government.

He suggested that these banks should be brought under a genuine corporate structure, merged if necessary, and eventually listed on the stock exchange after a thorough review of their asset quality and balance sheets.

He also called for bringing the Financial Institutions Division (FID) under the regulatory oversight of the Bangladesh Bank to prevent misuse of authority and strengthen supervision.

He further said the total number of banks should be reduced, with particular attention to those with weak balance sheets and negative net worth, through liquidation or other corrective measures.

The latest fuel price increase is expected to send shockwaves through much of the economy, lifting costs for farmers, transporters and manufacturers while offering only slight relief to the government finances and the exchange rate, according to an analysis by Brac EPL Stock Brokerage Ltd.

The brokerage estimates that seven out of nine key economic indicators it reviewed will face negative pressure. Only two areas, fiscal space and the dollar-taka exchange rate, are likely to benefit.

The government on Saturday night raised the prices of four fuels with effect from midnight. Diesel now sells at Tk 115 per litre, octane at Tk 140, petrol at Tk 135 and kerosene at Tk 130.

Bangladesh introduced an automatic, market-driven fuel pricing mechanism on March 7, 2024. Under the guidelines, prices are adjusted in the first week of each month based on the Mean of Platts Arab Gulf benchmark published by S&P Global.

For months, however, prices moved within a narrow Tk 1 to Tk 2 range in line with global markets. This time, the adjustment crosses over 15 percent, reflecting global price volatility amid conflicts in the Middle East.

Brac EPL estimates that a 15 percent increase across hydrocarbons could cut the subsidy bill by about Tk 700 crore a month at current price levels. That would ease pressure on public finances at a time when weak revenue collection and high operating costs have left the government with limited room to manoeuvre.

Lower subsidy requirements could also trim government borrowing, offering some support to the external balance and the exchange rate. But the impact is not straightforward, rather layered and uneven.

The immediate burden of the fuel shock will fall on irrigation, transport and power generation. North Bengal is in the middle of the Boro season, the largest paddy cycle of the year.

Irrigation there depends heavily on diesel and electricity. Higher diesel prices will raise cultivation costs unless offset by policy support or price adjustments.

Transport and logistics are equally exposed. Freight operators usually pass on higher fuel costs quickly, especially in goods transport. That, in turn, feeds into the prices of agricultural produce, consumer goods and manufactured items.

Although diesel-based generation accounts for less than 2 percent of total power output, its share can rise during peak demand, especially as liquified natural gas (LNG) shortages drag on. Higher generation costs may be passed on to consumers or absorbed through fresh subsidies, according to the report.

It said there could be second-round effects too. Dearer transport, irrigation and energy will add to inflationary pressures already stoked by high imported food prices.

The brokerage said that rising inflation expectations could push up yields on government securities and lift borrowing costs for companies if not carefully managed.

Higher inflation and interest rates, according to the report, would weaken demand, lower output, and leave factories running below capacity, which may ultimately translate into slower GDP growth.

While the country usually depends on long-term supply contracts, diesel, which accounts for nearly 65 percent of hydrocarbon consumption, is increasingly sourced from the volatile spot market.

Because geopolitical tensions have disrupted trade routes, with some suppliers declaring force majeure amid infrastructure damage and shipping blockade through the Strait of Hormuz.

The country’s sole crude oil refinery, Eastern Refinery Limited, has an annual capacity of 1.5 million tonnes and meets about 20 percent of domestic demand across 16 fuel products.

The refinery is currently running well below capacity because of crude shortages and is unlikely to scale up production before May this year.

Besides, existing trade agreements with the US limit Bangladesh’s ability to diversify its fuel sourcing, creating added pressure on procurement.

Brac EPL said reliance on spot purchases, low refinery utilisation and limited sourcing options could prompt further price increases, though at a slower pace.

Bangladesh is seeking an additional $2 billion in external support to cushion exposure to volatile fuel markets, ease foreign exchange pressure, and gradually reduce subsidies.

In the meantime, the country has secured a 60-day waiver from the United States to import fuel from Russia and has sourced 100,000 tonnes from Kazakhstan at around $75 a barrel.

Economist Rehman Sobhan today (19 April) said Bangladesh's loan defaulters have become embedded in the political system and are now creating barriers to financial and institutional reforms.

"Loan defaulters have become part of the political structure. They themselves are obstructing reforms. So the problem is no longer person-specific, it is structural," he said on the final day of the three-day 9th South Asian Network on Economic Modeling (Sanem) Annual Economists' Conference in Dhaka.

"Reform is not merely about passing laws, but a continuous process requiring implementation, enforcement and measurable outcomes," he added at the session titled "Romancing the Reform: The Bangladesh Story", held in Dhaka today.

Sobhan said many reform efforts fail because governments do not follow through after legislation. "The first step of reform is enacting laws, followed by building the necessary administrative framework, ensuring proper enforcement and finally evaluating results."

The session was moderated by Sanem Executive Director Selim Raihan. The keynote paper was presented by CPD Distinguished Fellow Debapriya Bhattacharya, while former Finance Secretary and former Comptroller and Auditor General Mohammad Muslim Chowdhury served as designated discussant.

Debapriya said Bangladesh has pursued multiple reforms since independence but progress has been slowed by what he termed a "kleptocratic legacy" of corruption, misuse of public resources, weakened institutions and collusion among political, bureaucratic and business elites.

He said reforms often fail due to weak political ownership, poor implementation capacity, vested interests, lack of consultation, corruption, financing constraints and weak accountability.

Referring to the interim government, he said despite strong rhetoric, it failed to establish a coherent reform framework, lacked an integrated economic vision and did not create a real-time system for citizens to monitor progress.

Banking sector at center of crisis

Debapriya said the banking sector has become one of the clearest examples of how reform plans are derailed during implementation. He said rising non-performing loans (NPLs) are weighing heavily on the economy, while repeated attempts to restructure weak banks have been blocked by political resistance.

"The government has finally disclosed the names of major defaulters. But the real question is what to do with banks that have effectively collapsed," he said.

He also criticised amendments to the Bank Resolution Act, saying the changes created an opportunity for former owners of failed banks to regain influence by injecting a relatively small amount of money.

"This is seen as the comeback of oligarchs in a new form, with political patronage," he said, warning that such policy reversals send the wrong signal when depositors and investors need confidence.

He also criticised overlapping administrative control in the sector, saying governance reforms have been delayed for too long. "Good intentions are not enough. If banking reforms are delayed again, the cost to the economy will be much higher," he warned.

However, he welcomed promises of greater central bank autonomy, stronger supervision, action against defaulters and depositor protection, but questioned whether those commitments would be implemented.

Reform needs political commitment

Rehman Sobhan said political parties make major reform promises during elections, but it remains unclear whether they have the leadership or commitment to deliver them.

He said past reforms succeeded only when they had strong public support, citing the Six-Point Movement as an example of a widely backed reform agenda.

He added that such mobilisation is now weak, with parties failing to effectively communicate manifestos to voters. "In many cases, even party members do not properly know their own manifesto," he said.

Questioning the policy debate culture, Sobhan asked how many commentators have direct government experience, arguing that reform cannot be fully understood without working inside the state. "Without that experience, it is hard to know who supports reform, who resists it, and why it fails," he said.

Recalling his time at the Planning Commission, he said passing reform laws was not the main challenge.

Using police reform as an example, he said success should be measured by outcomes in practice. If accountability mechanisms are introduced, their effectiveness must be tested over time by citizens and journalists, he said. "That would be the real test of reform," he added.

Sobhan said many reform proposals promoted by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are not new, but have been discussed for decades under successive governments.

According to him, governments often show limited progress to unlock loan disbursements, while development partners also have an interest in showing money has been spent.

"What actually happens in the long run is rarely examined," he said.

Need for performance budgeting

Sobhan said he has repeatedly proposed performance-based budgeting to show citizens what outcomes are achieved through public spending. "At present, we only see expenditure figures, with little analysis of results," he said.

Referring to health and education, he said allocations are often underutilised even as complaints persist over inadequate budgets. "If allocated money is not spent properly, where is the real problem?" he asked.

Citing India, Sobhan said major reforms such as the right to food, education and work were driven by strong citizen movements. In Bangladesh, he said civil society remains fragmented and unable to build unified pressure for large-scale reform.

He described the democratic process as the ultimate test of reform, calling for free, fair and inclusive elections. "A government becomes truly accountable when it accepts the people's verdict."

An acute shortage of ammonia has closed down production at the state-owned DAP Fertilizer Company Limited (DAPFCL), marking a fresh setback for the country’s fertiliser supply chain, officials said.

The closure of five of the country’s six urea factories is behind the crisis, they claimed.

The ammonia needed for production at the factory is primarily sourced from Chittagong Urea Fertilizer Company Limited (CUFL) and Karnaphuli Fertilizer Company Limited (Kafco).

These two fertiliser factories were among the five shut down in early March, as a precaution amid fears of gas supply disruptions caused by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. They are yet to resume operations, and ammonia supply to the DAP facility remains cut off.

The DAP plant exhausted its stock of the indispensable raw material on Saturday. Fertiliser output had stopped around 7:00 pm, Deputy General Manager (Commercial) Robiul Alam Khan confirmed.

“If gas supply to those plants resumes, they can restart production, and we will receive raw materials again. There is no alternative source at the moment,” he told The Daily Star.

DAP production requires phosphoric acid and ammonia.

“We have sufficient phosphoric acid in stock, but without ammonia, production cannot continue,” Robiul Alam Khan added.

Typically, the plant produces around 500 tonnes of fertiliser daily using imported phosphoric acid and ammonia supplied by Kafco and CUFL.

The most recent batch of 3,000 tonnes of ammonia from Kafco had sustained production till Saturday, Khan said.

DAPFCL had managed to continue operations for nearly one and a half months using existing stock, but was forced to shut down after the reserves ran out.

Located in Rangadia of Anwara upazila in Chattogram, DAPFCL operates under the Bangladesh Chemical Industries Corporation (BCIC) of the Ministry of Industries.

Established to meet domestic demand for nitrogen and phosphorus-based fertilisers, the plant has been in commercial operation since 2006 and remains the country’s only DAP-producing plant. It has two units with a combined production capacity of 800 tonnes per day.

The plant produced around 92,600 tonnes of DAP in fiscal year 2023-24 and about 49,500 tonnes in fiscal year 2024-25, reflecting a sharp decline amid supply disruptions.

According to BCIC and the Ministry of Agriculture, the country’s total annual fertiliser demand is estimated at 6.5-6.9 million tonnes, including 2.7 million tonnes of urea, 752,000 tonnes of TSP, 1.507 million tonnes of DAP, 2.6 million tonnes of NPKS and 987,000 tonnes of MOP.

Around 1.4 million tonnes of DAP are imported. A significant portion comes from Morocco, Tunisia, China, and Saudi Arabia.

BCIC officials said geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and disruptions in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have created uncertainty over timely imports.

Authorities initially shut five urea fertiliser factories for 15 days from March 4 as a precaution amid concerns over gas supply disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict and the Strait of Hormuz closure.

However, the shutdown has stretched well beyond the initial timeline, with plants still idle after more than six weeks.

Even Kafco, initially operating at limited capacity, was forced to suspend production late last month due to worsening gas shortages.

BCIC officials said around 197 million cubic feet of gas per day are required to run the five major urea plants at full capacity, underscoring the severity of the supply crunch.

“We have been unable to produce around 7,100 tonnes of fertiliser daily from these plants for the past one and a half months,” BCIC Director (Production and Research) Md Moniruzzaman said.

He added that gas supply to Shahjalal Fertilizer Company Limited and CUFL is expected to resume from May 1.

“Once ammonia production restarts, we expect the DAP plant to receive feedstock and resume operations,” he said.

The World Bank-IMF Spring Meetings ended with more questions than answers for Bangladesh. There was no firm signal on the size or timing of external financing, no breakthrough on the stalled IMF programme, and no assurance that the expected $3.2 billion in budget support from the World Bank, ADB, AIIB, and Japan can be mobilised within the government's timeline. At a moment when tensions in the Strait of Hormuz are already unsettling global energy and freight markets, this ambiguity could not have come at a worse time.

Yet the government's post-Meeting narrative has been one of calm continuity. Officials insist the IMF programme is not off the table and that external financing will materialise once routine discussions conclude in the coming months. This confidence, however, sits uneasily alongside the fiscal choices now on the table: a record Tk9.3 trillion budget built on an ambitious revenue target that keeps the deficit deceptively modest as a share of GDP. The implicit message is that adjustment can wait – even as the global environment grows more hostile.

That assumption is increasingly difficult to sustain. Bangladesh sits at the wrong end of every transmission channel emanating from the Strait of Hormuz. Even a partial disruption pushes up oil prices, inflating the import bill and expanding subsidy requirements. Disruptions to Saudi and Qatari urea shipments raise fertilizer costs and threaten agricultural cycles. War-risk premiums on Gulf shipping routes increase freight costs for an import-dependent manufacturing base. Each additional dollar spent on fuel, fertiliser, and freight becomes a direct drawdown on already strained foreign exchange reserves.

Crucially, these pressures are not temporary. Even if the conflict were to de-escalate quickly, the lagged effects on prices, supply chains, and risk premiums are likely to persist for months. This is a shock that compounds over time – and it is arriving just as Bangladesh's policy credibility is beginning to fray.

The deeper problem is that the pressure is no longer one-sided. Bangladesh today finds itself caught between a shock it cannot control and policies it has been slow to adjust. The global environment is tightening from one end; policy inertia is tightening from the other. The result is a narrowing policy space – an economy squeezed from both directions.

This is why the stalled IMF programme matters far beyond its immediate financing value. Without an active IMF programme, Bangladesh loses more than access to disbursements – it loses its credibility anchor. And without that anchor, budget support from other multilaterals becomes harder to unlock, with IMF endorsement now effectively the gatekeeper of macroeconomic confidence. If these flows do not materialise, the consequences are immediate: a wider external financing gap, sharper import compression, rising inflation, and further pressure on reserves.

It is also important to recognise the constraints under which the current government is operating. Barely two months into office, it has been forced to navigate a fragile macroeconomic landscape while confronting a global shock that intensified within days of assuming power. Under such conditions, delays in advancing reforms are understandable.

What is harder to justify, however, is not inertia but reversal. The issue is not that reforms have yet to move forward – it is that some have not yet moved backward. The reintroduction of discretion in petroleum pricing, renewed exchange-rate management despite commitments to a market-based regime, and amendments to the bank resolution framework that reopen the door to previously discredited owners all signal a retreat from earlier reform commitments. Meanwhile, larger structural measures – particularly in tax and financial sector reform – remain stalled.

This mix of reversal and inertia creates a credibility problem at precisely the wrong moment. Backtracking signals unreliability; delays signal a lack of urgency. Together, they raise doubts about the government's willingness to adjust, keeping external financing on hold while the global shock intensifies.

The adjustment path itself is not complicated – but it is politically difficult. It begins with restoring exchange-rate credibility, because without that, reserves cannot be rebuilt and external balances cannot stabilise. It requires aligning interest-rate policy with genuine monetary tightening to contain inflation. It demands a shift in fiscal policy from expansionary optimism to targeted consolidation – anchored in realistic revenue expectations, rationalised subsidies, and prioritised expenditure. And it necessitates moving forward on long-delayed structural reforms, from tax administration and banking sector cleanup to energy pricing, port management, and state-owned enterprise governance.

Ultimately, macroeconomic adjustment is never neutral. When policy delays persist, the burden does not disappear – it shifts. Import compression translates into raw-material shortages for industry. A defended exchange rate erodes export competitiveness while diverting remittances into informal channels. Delayed energy pricing reforms inflate subsidies, crowding out social spending. In the absence of timely policy action, adjustment takes place through even higher inflation, stricter and more chaotic rationing, and slower growth – mechanisms that disproportionately affect those least able to absorb the shock.

Bangladesh is now operating in a dangerously exposed position: caught between a volatile global environment, a stalled IMF programme, and a fiscal stance that assumes the storm will pass. But the world is tightening, not easing. External conditions are becoming less forgiving, not more.

The government may have had limited time – but the direction of travel is already visible.

The war delivered the shock, but the distribution of pain is being decided at home. Without timely and credible reforms, the burden of adjustment will not be shared evenly – it will cascade downward, onto households, workers, and small businesses. That is the real cost of delay: not just macroeconomic strain, but a quieter, more unequal adjustment that unfolds as policy continues to look the other way.

A day after hiking fuel prices, the government has announced a 10-20% increase in diesel, octane and petrol supplies from today to ease the shortages that kept motorists waiting in long queues for hours in Dhaka and elsewhere as of yesterday.

In a notification last night, the Energy Division said the distribution companies under the Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation (BPC) will sell 13,048 tonnes of diesel, 1,422 tonnes of octane and 1,511 tonnes of petrol per day from 20 April. This marks a 10% increase for diesel and petrol, and 20% for octane.

"Considering the present demand for fuel oils, companies under the BPC have been instructed to sell at the increased rates to keep up the supplies at dealers' and consumers' levels," reads the notification.

The government raised the price of octane by Tk20 per litre, petrol by Tk19 and diesel by Tk15, effective from yesterday.

Earlier in parliament yesterday, Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Iqbal Hasan Mahmud Tuku blamed panic buying, stockpiling and black market activity for the shortages at filling stations.

He said there is no shortage of fuel in the country, but that an artificial crisis is being created.

Despite a sharp increase in fuel prices aimed at reducing the subsidy burden, motorists across Bangladesh continued to face long queues at filling stations and shortages yesterday, with no sign of an improvement in supply.

Many motorists had expected the price increase to be followed by higher supplies from depots to petrol stations, easing the shortages that have persisted for weeks. Instead, the situation remained largely unchanged.

Drivers and motorcyclists in Dhaka and elsewhere in the country were still waiting for hours at filling stations to obtain fuel.

At some filling stations, motorcyclists who joined queues at midnight on Saturday were only able to buy fuel yesterday afternoon. Even then, some said they had not been allowed to fill their tanks.

Measures taken by the Energy Division to tackle hoarding and black market sales, including appointing tag officers at filling stations, forming monitoring teams at district and upazila level and conducting mobile court operations, have so far failed to improve the situation.

Energy Adviser to the Consumers Association of Bangladesh (CAB) M Shamsul Alam said the ministry had created a narrative that "fuel reserves are overflowing and that there is insufficient storage space".

"Yet people are standing on the streets for hours without getting fuel. The Energy Division, the BPC, the Competition Commission, the Directorate of National Consumer Rights Protection and the law enforcement agencies are all standing like wooden puppets. There are no words to describe this," he told TBS.

Shamsul Alam said the public could have accepted the difficulties if the government had acknowledged that supply is being disrupted by the Middle East conflict, the dollar shortage and uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz.

"Instead, the ministry has created the opposite narrative and is not even admitting there is a fuel shortage. That is proof of the government's serious inefficiency and inability to control the supply chain," he said.

Asked whether fuel supplies would be increased after the price rise, Energy and Mineral Resources Division spokesman Monir Hossain Chowdhury said, "We are often supplying more than the allocated amount. But unless panic buying stops, the situation will not return to normal."

Sajjadul Karim Kabul, president of one faction of the Petrol Pump Owners' Association, said depot supplies had not increased despite the higher prices.

"What is the point of raising fuel prices? The crisis will not end unless supplies increase. If they supplied fuel at full capacity for one week, everything would calm down," he said.

Kabul said officials appear worried that the Strait of Hormuz could be closed again and are therefore reluctant to release more fuel.

"We do not even know whether the government has the fuel. They keep telling the press that reserves are at their highest level in 50 years. If there are reserves, then release the fuel," he said.

Kabul said his 13,500-litre tanker had received only 9,000 litres from the depot and that the same situation had continued for the past three days.

The government's position also drew criticism in parliament.

Rumin Farhana, member of parliament for Brahmanbaria-2, accused the government of misleading the public.

Speaking on a point of order yesterday, she said: "The government keeps saying there is no fuel shortage, but the reality is completely different. There are queues stretching for three kilometres. Drivers are waiting until midnight and still not getting fuel. If there is no crisis, why are there such long queues? Why has the government increased fuel prices?"

Fahmida Khatun, executive director of the Centre for Policy Dialogue, told this newspaper that the price increase had been necessary because the government could no longer bear the cost of rising international fuel prices caused by supply disruptions.

"Consumers now want access to fuel without difficulty. The government must ensure adequate supply in order to normalise the situation," she said.

Countrywide paralysis

The shortage is not confined to the capital, according to TBS correspondents. Reports from Savar suggest that 75% of filling stations lacked octane and petrol by Sunday morning. Local officials claimed that while 68% of pumps had diesel, the concentrated demand on a few functional stations created a sense of panic.

The crisis has also hit the transport sector in Bogura, where goods-carrying trucks are unable to secure sufficient diesel, and in Barisal and Brahmanbaria, where pump owners report receiving no clear timeline from depots regarding when normal supply will resume.

At some stations, such as the SI Chowdhury Filling Station in Savar, managers reported receiving only one-third of their usual weekly octane allocation.

The safe-haven US dollar dropped ​to multi-week lows on Friday as risk appetite soared after Iran said the Strait of Hormuz is open, boosting optimism that the Middle East ‌conflict is winding down.

In afternoon trading, the dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of six currencies, fell 0.3 percent to 97.96 after earlier ​dropping to 97.632, its lowest in seven weeks.The index was down 0.6 percent on the week, set for a second straight weekly decline. Over the past two weeks, ​it has fallen about 2.1 percent, its largest two-week drop since late January.

“The dollar’s weakness is mainly about the market unwinding the geopolitical risk premium,” said George Vessey, lead FX and macro strategist at Convera in London. “I don’t think we are pricing in a fundamentally weaker US dollar because there are question marks around the Federal Reserve, what’s the Fed’s next move ​is going to be after inflation came out hotter than expected.

So the economy is still somewhat resilient so it’s not going to be the start ​of a full structural dollar decline.”

BOJ LIKELY TO HOLD RATES THROUGH JUNE

Against the Japanese yen , the dollar slid 0.6 percent to 158.22 after earlier climbing to 159.86. It was on track ‌to post ⁠its largest weekly drop in nine weeks.

It will take about two years to recover the energy ​output lost in the Middle East from the ‌conflict there, Fatih Birol, the head of the International Energy Agency, was quoted as saying on Friday in an interview with ​the Neue Zuercher Zeitung newspaper.

"That will vary ​from country to country. In Iraq, for example, ⁠it will take much longer than in Saudi Arabia. ​However, we estimate it will take approximately two years ​overall to reach pre-war levels again," Birol told the Swiss newspaper.

Birol added that the market was underestimating the consequences of a ​prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Shipments of oil ​and gas that were already en route to their destinations before ‌the ⁠war in Iran began have now arrived, mitigating the impact of shortages, he said.

"But no new tankers were loaded in March. There were no new deliveries of ​oil, gas ​or fuels to ⁠Asian markets. This gap is now becoming apparent. If the Strait of Hormuz ​is not reopened, we must prepare for ​significantly higher ⁠energy prices."

Asked whether the IEA could carry out another release of emergency oil reserves after its March move, ⁠Birol ​said the agency was ready to ​act immediately and decisively.

"We're not there yet, but it's definitely under ​consideration," Birol said.

Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce and Industry (MCCI) President Kamran T Rahman today (19 April) called for a "supportive and growth-oriented" national budget for fiscal year 2026-27, warning that businesses, particularly small and medium enterprises, are under severe strain from high inflation, sluggish investment, elevated interest rates and foreign exchange pressure.

Speaking at a seminar of MCCI and the Economic Reporters' Forum (ERF) on budget priorities, he said the upcoming budget must be balanced and realistic, arguing that a sensible tax policy can simultaneously boost revenue, encourage investment and generate employment rather than punish businesses further.

Kamran proposed full integration of the National Identity (NID) and Tax Identification Number (TIN) databases to expand the tax net, noting that though over one crore taxpayers hold TINs, fewer than half file returns.

He also recommended introducing a symbolic minimum tax to bring new taxpayers into the fold and simplifying return filing through mobile applications.

The MCCI chief urged the government to reconsider conditions tied to corporate tax benefits, especially restrictions on cash transactions.

He further suggested cutting tax rates for both listed and non-listed companies by an additional 2.5% to stimulate investment.

Kamran proposed a unified taxpayer profile covering income tax, VAT and customs to reduce administrative complexity and harassment, along with online hearings and digital notices to cut time and cost for businesses.

On VAT and customs, he urged simpler procedures, transaction-based valuation, stronger automation, and allowing quantity disclosure instead of value in some VAT forms to protect confidentiality.

The MCCI President called for special policy support for SMEs, including separate tax treatment, input tax credit facilities and reduced duty and VAT on raw materials.

Comprehensive reform roadmap presented

Md Shahadat Hossain, former President of the Institute of Chartered Accountants of Bangladesh, presented policy recommendations in a paper titled "National Budget 2026–2027: Private Sector Priorities & Perspectives," outlining reforms in corporate tax, VAT, customs and capital markets.

He said the budget should go beyond revenue and spending to serve as a broader policy framework for growth, investment, jobs and inflation control.

Shahadat flagged Bangladesh's tax-to-GDP ratio hovering between 6.5% and 7.3% in FY2024-25 as among the lowest globally, well below the 15% threshold considered necessary for sustainable development.

The Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce and Industry (MCCI) today urged the government to cut turnover tax on gross receipts to 0.3 percent from 1 percent, saying the existing regime burdens businesses and distorts the tax framework.

The chamber pointed to mismatches between tax deducted at source (TDS), taxes on gross receipts and final corporate tax liabilities, which it said raise compliance costs, strain cash flow and risk double taxation.

“To remove these distortions, tax rates across different stages need to be rationalised and aligned with business realities,” MCCI said.

The proposal was placed at a pre-budget seminar in Dhaka for fiscal year 2026-27, jointly organised by MCCI and the Economic Reporters Forum.

It also proposed setting TDS on export proceeds at 0.50 percent to improve competitiveness amid uncertain global trade conditions, adding that advance deductions erode exporters’ working capital.

At the import stage, MCCI recommended reducing tax collection at source to 3 percent from 5 percent to ease costs for raw materials and capital machinery, supporting industrial production and investment.

For domestic transactions, it suggested a flexible TDS range of 1–3 percent on supply, depending on transaction type and risk profile, and fixing TDS on packing materials at 3 percent for clarity.

The chamber also called for resolving refund complications by issuing “No TDS” certificates until refundable amounts are fully adjusted to ease cash flow and cut delays.

At the event, Kamran T Rahman, president of MCCI, said businesses face mounting pressure from high inflation, elevated interest rates and foreign exchange constraints, with small and medium enterprises hit hardest.

He urged a supportive budget to lower business costs, encourage investment and restore private sector confidence, stressing the need for coordinated policy action to stabilise the economy and sustain growth.