The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has cut Bangladesh’s economic growth further to 4 percent for the current fiscal year 2025–26 from its previous projection of 4.7 percent amid a fuel price spike and disruption in global supply chains due to the war in the Middle East.

The ADB said the economy might pick up and grow by 4.7 percent in the next fiscal year 2026–27, according to the latest Asian Development Outlook (ADO) April 2026 released today.

This is the third time the ADB has revised down its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth forecast for Bangladesh.

The Manila-based lender in December forecast 4.7 percent GDP growth in the current fiscal year, down from its September forecast of 5 percent. In April last year, the ADB had projected 5.1 percent growth for the same year.

The current growth outlook reflects a recovery in consumption and investment as political uncertainty eases after the general election. Temporary supply chain disruptions linked to conflict in the Middle East affected activity in the last quarter, but their impact is expected to fade, the ADB said in a press release.

“Bangladesh is facing a difficult economic environment, shaped by global uncertainties, domestic structural constraints, and pressures on the external and financial sectors,” said ADB Country Director in Bangladesh Hoe Yun Jeong.

Inflation is projected to remain elevated at 9 percent in FY26, despite some easing, reflecting persistently high global energy prices and ongoing supply disruptions. It is expected to moderate to 8.5 percent in FY27 as external shocks subside and domestic supply conditions improve.

“Downside risks to the outlook remain substantial, particularly if the conflict prolongs,” it said.

Disruptions to global energy markets, shipping routes, and supply chains could drive sustained increases in oil and gas prices, intensifying domestic inflationary pressures and complicating ongoing disinflation efforts, thereby constraining macroeconomic policy flexibility, it said.

“Higher energy prices could also widen the fiscal deficit, especially if energy-related subsidies increase or the pass-through to consumers is delayed.”

The ADO report said external sector pressures may rise as exports and remittances soften amid slower economic activity in key Persian Gulf economies, while elevated import costs and freight rates would further strain the current account amid already tight external liquidity.

Overall, the balance of risks is firmly tilted to the downside, underscoring Bangladesh’s vulnerability to external shocks in a context of still-fragile macroeconomic conditions. Climate-related shocks remain an additional, persistent risk.

The ADB said the current account deficit, the record of a country's international transactions with the rest of the world, is anticipated to be 0.5 percent of Gross Domestic Product in FY26, widening slightly to 0.6 percent in FY27, driven by stronger import demand and a broader trade deficit.

The dollar slipped on Friday, putting it on track for its largest weekly drop ​since January, as investors sold safe-haven assets on the assumption that oil shipping will resume if a ceasefire holds in the ‌Gulf.

The dollar had towered in March as one of the few bastions of safety as the Iran war sent oil prices surging and hit stocks and gold, while inflation worries pressured bonds.

But since a fragile ceasefire was reached on Tuesday, those positions are being unwound.

The euro has rallied 1.8 percent this week to trade at $1.173, while sterling ​has gained 2 percent since Monday to $1.347.

The risk-sensitive Australian and New Zealand dollars are set for weekly rises of nearly 3 percent on ​the dollar, with the Aussie trading just above 70 cents.

MARKETS ARE OPTIMISTIC EVEN THOUGH CEASEFIRE IS FRAGILE

“The market still seems generally optimistic, despite some of the ceasefire fraying,” said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex.

Data on Friday showed ​that US consumer prices rose by the most in nearly four years in March as the Iran war boosted oil prices and the pass-through from tariffs ​persisted.

The increase was largely in line with expectations and the markets’ direction is more likely to hinge on the outcome of weekend peace talks between the US and Iran in Islamabad, analysts said.

“People were buying the US dollar when the war was at its most intense moment and now they’re selling as the tail risk ​of a really bad outcome has faded quite a bit,” said Jason Wong, senior strategist at BNZ in Wellington.

“Even though it still looks ​a bit shaky, the ceasefire removing that tail risk is important from a sentiment point of view,” he said, adding that the mood could turn very quickly ‌if the ⁠anticipated weekend peace talks fail to deliver progress.

Asia’s biggest liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) importers, including India and China, are racing to replace disrupted Middle East supplies with cargoes from the ​Americas, driving spot premiums to record highs, analysts and traders said.

LPG exports from the Middle East, Asia’s top supplier of the ‌fuel used for cooking and feedstock for petrochemical plants, have plunged since the US-Israeli war with Iran started in late February.

The supply shock is squeezing Asian petrochemical producers’ margins, forcing them to cut output, and raising costs for millions of Asian households, analysts and traders said. India and China are the biggest importers of LPG from the Middle East.

Middle Eastern ​LPG exports tumbled 73 percent to 419,000 barrels per day (bpd) in March from the previous month, data from analytics firm Kpler showed,

The supply shock ​drove spot premiums for propane and butane loading in April from the Gulf to record highs of $250 per metric ton to March Saudi contract price swaps on March 30, according to pricing agency Argus.

Saudi Aramco sharply raised its April official selling prices amid the supply crunch. The ​April propane price rose by $205 per ton to $750, while butane increased by $260 per ton to $800.

“Key importers such as India are actively diversifying their sourcing strategies, increasing ​procurement from the United States, Norway, Canada, and other regions alongside remaining Gulf supplies,” said Vasudev Balagopal, global head of petrochemical trading at financial services platform Marex.

ALTERNATIVE SUPPLY

To meet Asia’s shortfall, US LPG exports are expected to surge to a record 2.7 million bpd in April, with about 1.8 million bpd headed to Asia, 14 percent higher than March, preliminary Kpler ​data showed. That drove US Gulf spot terminal fees for propane and butane to a record $273.525 and $240.09 per ton, respectively, on March 19, Argus data ​showed.

“We saw some additional propane still being offered to Asia for May arrivals,” said Marex’s Vasudev.

However, Greg Bower, a broker at New Stone, said the US cannot replace the ‌Middle East fully, adding that export terminals were already operating close to capacity before the conflict.

According to US Energy Information Administration data, the country had 48.4 million barrels of ready-for-sale propane as of March 27.

Moreover, transit times from the US Gulf Coast to Asia take more than 30 days, significantly longer than a two-week voyage from the Middle East, traders said, adding to supply strains amid uncertainty over when Iran will allow the strategic Strait of Hormuz to reopen as part of a fragile ​ceasefire deal.

Last year, the Middle East ​accounted for about 48 percent of total Asian LPG imports at 1.54 million bpd, while the US sent about 39 percent or 1.26 million bpd, Kpler data showed.

LOSS IN DEMAND

Insufficient LPG supply led to demand destruction in March, analysts said.

Consultancy Rystad Energy estimated LPG demand loss from ​regional steam crackers at about 135,000 barrels per day in March from February levels, with a further 35,000 ​bpd decline expected in April and 11,000 bpd in May.

In China, propane dehydrogenation (PDH) plants, already operating at around 60 percent to 65 percent before the conflict because of poor margins, are expected to trim runs by a further five percentage points in April due to feedstock shortages, according to Rystad. Such plants product propylene, a key building block for plastics and other chemicals.

For ​cooking gas, India’s demand dropped around 205,000 bpd in March.

“The supply situation in India is ​gradually improving but shortages persist even as long-haul cargoes arrive in India from as far as Argentina and the US,” Rystad analyst Manish Sejwal said.

Rystad expects Indian LPG demand to recover from April, ​with losses narrowing by about 70,000 bpd.

Wall Street stocks rose sharply over the week and oil prices fell as a fragile truce was struck between the United States and Iran, with ceasefire talks due to start in Islamabad on Saturday.

For the week, all three major US indices advanced by more than three percent. Oil prices retreated once again on Friday. For the week, they tumbled by approximately 13 percent.

The New York Stock Exchange closed mixed for the day Friday -- the Dow Jones shed 0.6 percent, the Nasdaq gained 0.4 percent, and the broader S&P 500 index was flat, slipping 0.1 percent.

"Markets are trading on a cautious tone ahead of the US-Iran ceasefire talks," Elias Haddad of Brown Brothers Harriman (BBH) said in a note.

"For financial markets, the key issue is whether peak shipping security fear is now behind us."

Official sources say the talks in Islamabad will cover Iran's nuclear enrichment and the free flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz.

Since the ceasefire took effect, US President Donald Trump has voiced displeasure at Iran's handling of the strategic strait, which was meant to be reopened.

"The key issue for the oil market is whether ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will resume," Carsten Fritsch of Commerzbank said in a note. "So far, there are no signs of this happening."

Inflation in the United States rose sharply in March, government data showed Friday, as higher energy prices due to the war hit Americans hard. Prices rose 3.3 percent from a year earlier.

White House spokesperson Kush Desai responded by saying the US economy "remains on a solid trajectory."

In Europe, London and Frankfurt closed virtually flat as Paris added 0.2 percent.

State-owned National Tubes Ltd, the country's only government-run steel pipe manufacturer listed on the stock exchanges, has reported a sharp decline in performance, with sales nearly halving in the first nine months of FY2025–26 amid weakening demand.

According to company disclosures approved by the board on Thursday, the firm's net sales dropped 50% year-on-year to Tk18.15 crore during the July–March period, down from Tk36.24 crore in the same period of the previous fiscal year.

The steep fall in revenue pushed the company into losses, reversing its profit trend from a year earlier.

National Tubes posted a net loss of Tk5.57 crore for the nine-month period, compared to a profit of Tk2.66 crore in July–March of FY25. Its loss per share stood at Tk1.60.

Operating cash flow also deteriorated significantly, with net operating cash flow per share falling to Tk0.17 as of March 2026, compared to Tk1.09 in the same period a year earlier.

The company's net asset value was recorded at Tk473 crore, according to its financial statements.

In the third quarter alone (January–March), National Tubes incurred a loss of Tk1.31 crore, a sharp reversal from a profit of Tk1.42 crore in the same quarter of the previous fiscal year. Quarterly revenue also declined by 40% to Tk8.12 crore from Tk13.51 crore a year earlier.

The company attributed the downturn to a broader fall in demand for steel pipes across key industrial and utility sectors.

National Tubes supplies pipes to major gas distribution and utility operators, including Titas Gas, Bakhrabad Gas Distribution Company, Jalalabad Gas Transmission and Distribution System, BAPEX, WASA, Fire Hydrant Company, and various manufacturing and real estate firms, according to its website.

Established in 1964 as a private-sector enterprise, National Tubes was nationalised in 1972 and placed under the Bangladesh Steel and Engineering Corporation (BSEC). It was later converted into a public limited company in 1989, with 49% of its shares offloaded to the general public.

City Bank PLC has reported a record-breaking financial performance for 2025, posting a consolidated net profit of Tk1,324 crore, which represents a robust 31% growth from the Tk1,014 crore recorded in the previous year.

The record profit was driven largely by a sharp rise in investment income from government securities.

Reflecting the strong earnings, the bank's board of directors has recommended a 30% dividend for 2025, comprising 15% cash and 15% stock, up from the previous year's 25% total dividend, which included 12.5% cash and 12.5% stock. The annual general meeting is scheduled for 7 June, while 3 May has been set as the record date, according to a disclosure filed on the bank's website.

The bank's latest financial disclosures reflect a remarkable turnaround over the past five years, with profits steadily climbing from Tk549 crore in 2021 to over Tk1,300 crore in 2025, underscoring its strengthening earnings base despite a challenging economic environment.

Its earnings per share rose in tandem with profitability, increasing by 31% to Tk8.71, while net asset value per share surged by 33% to Tk40.67. Its net operating cash flow per share stood at Tk47, indicating strong liquidity support for the bank's operations.

Despite the headline profit growth, the bank's core banking income faced pressure during the year. Its interest income from loans increased by around 22% to Tk5,471 crore, up from Tk4,501 crore a year earlier.

However, this growth was overshadowed by a much steeper rise in interest expenses on deposits, which surged by 71% to Tk5,186 crore. As a result, the bank's net interest income remained relatively modest at Tk285 crore, reflecting narrowing spreads amid rising funding costs.

The bank's record profit was instead powered by its non-core income streams, particularly investments in government Treasury bills and bonds. Income from treasury instruments more than doubled during the year, jumping 114% to Tk3,562 crore. Overall income from investments, fees, commissions, exchange, and brokerage activities reached Tk4,506 crore, significantly higher than the previous year's Tk1,661 crore.

This surge in investment income played a pivotal role in offsetting the pressure on traditional lending operations and helped push operating profit up by 16% to Tk2,727 crore from Tk2,351 crore in 2024.

City Bank's performance aligns with a broader trend in the banking sector, where several listed banks have reported record profits for the year despite subdued private sector credit growth.

Earlier, Prime Bank PLC and Shahjalal Islami Bank PLC also announced strong earnings, posting profits of Tk910 crore and Tk368 crore, respectively.

Market insiders said the banking sector faced weak demand for private sector loans in 2025 amid a sluggish business environment. As a result, many banks shifted their focus toward fixed-income instruments such as Treasury bills and government bonds, where yields rose to double-digit levels during the year.

This strategic reallocation of funds enabled banks like City Bank to capitalise on higher returns from relatively risk-free investments, compensating for the decline in traditional interest-based income. Analysts, however, caution that sustained reliance on such income sources may not be viable in the long run if interest rate conditions change.

Runner Automobiles Limited, a listed motorcycle manufacturer, is witnessing a continued divestment by its foreign investment partner, Brummer Frontier PE II (Mauritius) Limited.

In its latest move, the investment firm, a concern of Sweden-based Brummer & Partners, has declared its intention to sell 50 lakh shares of the company within a specified timeframe at prevailing market prices.

According to disclosures published on the Dhaka Stock Exchange, Brummer Frontier will dispose of the shares from its existing holdings through the market. Based on the current market price, the total value of these shares stands at around Tk20 crore.

However, this is not a new development. The share sale is part of the investor's long-term, phased exit strategy.

A transaction of this size has naturally had an impact on the market. In the short term, selling pressure weighed on the stock, leading to a 6.30% decline in its price. Yesterday, the share closed at Tk38.70 on the DSE.

Previously, on 27 April 2022, the investment firm had announced the sale of 1 crore shares from its holdings. At one point, Brummer Frontier held 24.93% of Runner Automobiles' total shares.

Currently, the investor holds 1,83,04,347 shares, representing around 16% of the company's total shareholding. The planned sale of 50 lakh shares will come from this remaining stake.

Speaking to The Business Standard, a top official of Runner Automobiles said that the decision to sell shares lies entirely with the board of the investment firm.

He explained that after the post-IPO lock-in period expired, Brummer Frontier obtained regulatory approval to sell its shares. Based on that approval, the firm has been gradually offloading its stake.

The official further noted that decisions regarding the timing and volume of share sales are determined solely by the investor's board, taking into account market conditions, share price, and internal investment strategies.

He also clarified that Runner Automobiles' management or board has no role in this matter, adding, "This is part of the investor's exit strategy and is not directly related to the company's operations or performance."

Brummer Frontier first invested in Runner Automobiles in 2013, injecting around Tk105 crore to acquire a significant stake. The objective was to accelerate the company's growth, strengthen corporate governance, and eventually secure a profitable exit.

Later, in 2019, Runner Automobiles was listed on the stock exchange through an initial public offering (IPO). While this opened up ownership to general investors, Brummer Frontier's shares were subject to a lock-in period. Following the expiry of that period, the investor began gradually reducing its stake.

There are several logical reasons behind Brummer Frontier's ongoing share sales, most of which are aligned with the typical lifecycle of private equity investments.

Firstly, private equity funds do not invest permanently. They aim to exit after a certain period by realising returns. Brummer Frontier's fund has now crossed a decade, making it necessary to return capital to its investors.

Secondly, during its tenure, Brummer Frontier contributed to significant improvements in Runner Automobiles, including enhancements in corporate governance, management structure, and environmental and safety standards. Having achieved these milestones, the firm is now in the phase of monetising its investment.

Thirdly, portfolio rebalancing is another key factor. Global investment funds frequently adjust their portfolios to explore new opportunities across sectors and geographies.

Meanwhile, Runner Automobiles has recently signed an agreement with Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer BYD Auto Industry Company.

However, the company has stated that the final investment size and potential financial impact under the Master Supply and Manufacturing Agreement (MSMA) have not yet been determined.

According to Runner, the MSMA serves as a framework for vehicle production under the Completely Knocked Down model, where components will be imported and assembled locally.

The company noted that a comprehensive feasibility assessment is currently underway. This includes determining the investment size, evaluating production capacity, analysing supply chain requirements, assessing market potential, and projecting revenues and costs.

However, no final commercial or financial terms have been established under the MSMA so far.

Bangladesh's tax authority is once again pledging to introduce a fully automated compliance monitoring system, this time with a deadline. The National Board of Revenue (NBR) says it aims to roll out a nationwide automated system by 2027 to curb widespread tax evasion and improve the country's declining tax-to-GDP ratio.

The move comes as revenue collection faces increasing pressure, with Bangladesh recording one of the lowest tax-to-GDP ratios in Asia. Despite more than a decade of efforts and significant spending on digitalisation, only limited portions of income tax, VAT, and customs services have been automated so far.

Senior NBR officials said the plan will begin by making existing online return filing and e-audit systems fully functional. This will be followed by the introduction of risk-based audits for both individual and corporate taxpayers within the year. The authority also plans to integrate real-time data with key institutions – including banks, land offices, and vehicle registration authorities – before launching the full monitoring system.

NBR Chairman Abdur Rahman Khan said, "While several tax services are already online, the next step is to link tax data with other government and financial databases. Once integrated, the system will be able to track transactions more efficiently and identify non-compliant taxpayers quickly."

However, the timeline has raised doubts among experts and former officials, who note that similar promises over the past 15 years have seen limited success. Large-scale projects funded by both domestic and foreign sources have failed to deliver the expected level of automation.

Former NBR chairman Muhammad Abdul Mazid believes full automation within a year is unrealistic. "Automation has been discussed since the 1990s, yet meaningful results remain limited," he said.

He also questioned whether there is sufficient internal support within the NBR for such a system, noting that both some officials and non-compliant businesses may lack incentives to embrace full transparency. He added that past projects often consumed time and funds on consultancy, logistics, and administration without producing tangible outcomes.

Mazid emphasised that while the 2027 deadline may be ambitious, the NBR must remain committed to implementation. He also stressed the need to bring all relevant institutions under digital systems to enable effective data sharing.

Bangladesh's tax-to-GDP ratio has declined from around 10% a decade ago to just 6.6% in the 2024-25 fiscal year – one of the lowest in Asia. Experts attribute this to tax evasion, widespread exemptions, and institutional inefficiencies.

There is no official estimate of revenue losses due to tax evasion, but a study by the Centre for Policy Dialogue suggests that losses exceeded Tk1.26 lakh crore in 2023.

Over the past decade and a half, the government has launched more than ten initiatives to automate tax administration, including online TIN registration, income tax returns, VAT systems, refund mechanisms, customs bond automation, and the National Single Window. However, many of these systems remain only partially functional. For instance, the online income tax system still relies partly on manual processes, while VAT automation and customs bond systems continue to face operational challenges.

Weak data integration

Stakeholders say resistance from some officials, frequent leadership changes at the NBR, and political transitions have slowed progress. Data integration with other institutions has also lagged, limiting the effectiveness of enforcement.

Currently, tax authorities must manually collect data from banks, land offices, city corporations, and utility providers, making it difficult to detect tax evasion at scale. Although there have been efforts to access banking data, lack of cooperation from financial institutions has hindered progress.

Stocks at the Dhaka bourse ended flat last week amid the US-Iran ceasefire, rebounding from the previous week's losing streak.

During the week of 5-9 April, the benchmark index of the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE), DSEX, ended in the green, gaining 37 points and recovering from a 96-point loss in the previous week, according to data.

Turnover stood at Tk3,348 crore, while the daily average turnover increased by 0.20% to Tk669.6 crore. However, the prices of the majority of stocks declined amid sell-offs.

According to DSE weekly data, three of the five trading sessions ended positively, including a strong rebound in one session, with DSEX surging by 205 points in these sessions. Meanwhile, two sessions closed in the negative, weighing on the index by 168 points.

On 8 April, breaking a prolonged bearish spell since the onset of the war, Dhaka stocks rallied strongly, with turnover and indices surging after the US and Iran agreed to a conditional two-week ceasefire. DSEX rose by 3.12%, or 161 points, marking its highest single-day gain since 15 February.

As per the data, at the end of last week, DSEX closed at 5,257 points, while DS30, the blue-chip index, surged by 22 points to 2,002, and DSES, the shariah index, and increased by 3.6 points to 1,059.

Of the traded stocks, 138 advanced, 220 declined, 29 remained unchanged, and 24 were not traded.

EBL Securities, in its weekly market commentary, said the capital market exhibited mixed performance over the week as escalating tensions in the Middle East prompted investors to adopt a risk-averse stance and closely monitor unfolding developments.

"The week opened with broad-based sell-offs, fueled by panic reactions to newly announced government austerity measures aimed at addressing the country's potential energy crisis. As the week progressed, sentiment gradually improved.

"Bargain hunters moved in to accumulate oversold large-cap stocks following the government's decision to keep fuel prices unchanged and amid growing optimism over a potential US-Iran ceasefire. This shift in mood supported three consecutive sessions of market recovery," it said.

However, the optimism proved short-lived. Renewed uncertainties surrounding a lasting resolution to the conflict, along with concerns over a possible blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, weighed on investor confidence once again.

It said investors were mostly active in pharma sector stocks, which contributed 15.8% to total turnover, followed by engineering with 14.2% and bank sector stocks with 9.3%.

Sectors exhibited mixed returns, with tannery at 2.4%, bank at 1.7%, and paper at 1.7% being the top gainers, while mutual fund, life insurance, and travel sector stocks emerged as the top losers

The Bangladesh Bank has verbally cautioned several commercial banks against purchasing US dollars at elevated rates in a move to maintain stability in the foreign exchange market.

The matter was discussed during a meeting between the central bank governor, Md Mostaqur Rahman, and the Association of Bankers Bangladesh (ABB) held in the capital today (9 April).

A senior Bangladesh Bank official told TBS that the regulator had observed that some banks were purchasing dollars at excessive rates. "As a result, banks have been instructed to refrain from buying or selling dollars at inflated prices."
He added that the exchange rate would be determined by supply and demand, with no direct intervention by the central bank.

According to the official, the current supply of dollars remains strong, while banks are also maintaining a healthy net open position. In such a situation, purchasing dollars at higher rates could destabilise the market, prompting the central bank to advise strict compliance.

A senior official of a private bank said the Bangladesh Bank instructed banks to purchase remittance dollars from money exchange houses within Tk123.10. It also directed that interbank transactions should not exceed Tk122.75.

However, officials at several banks told this newspaper yesterday that they had purchased remittance dollars at Tk123 from exchange houses.

Bankers noted that interbank dollar transactions have declined over the past two days following the central bank's instruction to cap the rate at Tk122.75.

They explained that banks are reluctant to sell dollars at Tk122.75 in the interbank market after purchasing remittance at higher rates, which has contributed to reduced trading activity.

ABB seeks relaxation on bonus rules

During the meeting with the governor, the ABB called for a revision of a December 2025 circular that prohibits banks with capital or provision deficits from granting incentive bonuses to their employees. Bank representatives argued for a move away from this rule to ensure staff remained motivated.

According to a senior official, the governor expressed a willingness to consider a new circular. This could potentially allow banks with capital shortfalls to provide bonuses, provided they at least maintain their required provision levels.

Furthermore, the ABB demanded the removal of the current Tk15 lakh ceiling on annual bonuses for bank managing directors. Existing regulations mandate that an MD's bonus cannot exceed this limit and that no other bank official can receive a higher bonus than the MD.

ABB Chairman Mashrur Arefin said the association also proposed raising the personal loan limit from Tk20 lakh to Tk40 lakh.

In addition, a proposal was made to allow banks to provide up to 90% financing for the purchase of hybrid vehicles.

Inflation in the United States rose sharply in March, government data showed Friday, as higher energy prices due to the war in the Middle East hit Americans hard.

The nationwide sticker shock put pressure on President Donald Trump, who has ordered peace talks with Iran and faces mid-term elections in November.

The rate of inflation rose to 3.3 percent year-on-year in March, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). By comparison, this same consumer price index (CPI) was 2.4 percent year-on-year a month earlier.

Gasoline prices surged by 21.2 percent between February and March -- the largest monthly increase since the government began publishing a related index in 1967, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said.

Markets had anticipated the surge, according to the consensus published by MarketWatch.

The United States and Israel began bombing Iran on February 28 and Tehran retaliated by blocking traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway used to carry a fifth of the world’s oil and gas deliveries.

Despite being the world’s top producer of crude oil, the United States also felt the pain, as prices at the gas pump shot up.

A gallon (3.78 liters) of regular gasoline currently costs an average of $4.15 in the United States, compared to approximately $3 just before the war.

The Trump administration -- elected in part on a promise to quash inflation -- maintains that the war’s economic disruptions will be temporary.

‘MORE PRICE PAIN AHEAD’

Reacting to the data, White House spokesperson Kush Desai said the US economy “remains on a solid trajectory.”

Economic advisor Kevin Hassett claimed some wins for the White House, citing drops in the price of eggs, beef and concert tickets on Fox News.

US Vice President JD Vance said he hoped for a “positive” outcome as he departed Washington for US-Iran peace talks in Pakistan this weekend.

But experts predicted more economic pain ahead due to the war in Iran, especially for middle and lower-income households already squeezed by rising energy and airfare prices.

Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, said that inflation soared in March to the highest level in almost two years.

“This is only the beginning. Food prices, travel and shipping costs are all going up in April and will exacerbate the pain,” she said.

“March CPI was as expected, so no surprises. But there is a huge increase in fuel prices, boosting inflation,” Christopher Low of FHN Financial told AFP.

“And we got the news last night that the ceasefire is not being honored by either side, apparently,” he said. “There’s still very little traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.”

Some economists calculate the oil price surge will cost each US household at least $350 per household.

Consumer sentiment also dipped sharply -- 11 percent -- this month, according to a University of Michigan survey.

During the Federal Reserve’s most recent meeting in mid-March, Chairman Jerome Powell said that the war risked delaying efforts to bring inflation under control in the United States.

The US central bank’s target for inflation is two percent -- an objective it has not met in five years due to the Covid pandemic, the war in Ukraine and tariffs.

AB Bank has made a decisive strategic shift toward micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs), moving away from its earlier concentration in large corporate lending, said Reazul Islam, acting managing director and CEO.

The move by the oldest private commercial bank of the country is a recalibration amid a weak economic environment marked by subdued private sector demand and geopolitical uncertainties, he told The Daily Star in a recent interview.

“Excessive concentration in large corporate exposures historically created vulnerabilities,” Islam said.

By distributing loans across a broader base of smaller borrowers, the bank aims to reduce systemic risk -- ensuring that isolated defaults do not significantly undermine overall stability.

“While corporate lending will continue, it will be more selective, with greater emphasis on supporting strong existing clients rather than pursuing aggressive expansion.”

Digital transformation sits at the heart of the bank’s new direction, according to Islam, a veteran banker with 29 years of experience in regulatory management, banking and professional services, who joined the bank in August 2024 as additional managing director.

He informed that AB Bank is developing fully branchless, digital loan processing systems and plans to introduce nano loans pending regulatory approval.

It is also deploying AI-based credit assessment tools and automated decision-making to minimise human intervention and move toward instant, paperless loan approvals via mobile platforms.

By leveraging alternative data sources, such as transaction behaviour and digital footprints, the bank aims to enhance credit scoring accuracy, reduce operational costs, and mitigate risk.

Over time, this digital lending framework is expected to expand beyond personal loans into SME financing, Islam said.

He acknowledged that the bank has lagged behind peers in agent banking and sub-branch reach, with 264 and 60 outlets respectively. “This was largely due to earlier strategic decisions and delayed entry into these segments.”

Both channels are now prioritised for deposit mobilisation and customer outreach, with new expansion targets set, though regulatory approvals remain a constraint.

Approaching 44 years since its founding in April 1982, it has faced repeated cycles of stress from the 1980s through the 2000s but demonstrated resilience by recovering from setbacks.

“This resilience has largely been driven by strong customer confidence, brand loyalty, institutional trust, and the commitment of its workforce,” says Islam.

The bank is currently navigating another difficult phase of high non-performing loans and mounting losses. Yet customers have continued to access their funds without disruption -- a factor Islam credits as critical to preserving confidence.

He says, “Liquidity management at the branch level remains relatively stable, and conditions have gradually improved.”

Islam notes that the deposit situation was particularly strained in 2024, when panic withdrawals amid broader sectoral uncertainty pushed liquidity under pressure. Total deposits fell roughly 9 percent that year to Tk 32,292 crore. The bank responded by ensuring uninterrupted cash availability and reinforcing employee confidence.

The effort paid off. Deposits recovered to Tk 34,465 crore by September 2025, with liquidity pressures easing and customer confidence gradually returning. Support from the central bank was instrumental during the peak of the crisis.

Islam, however, notes that structural challenges persist. Many loans have been rescheduled or placed under moratoriums, with repayment delays stretching up to two years -- meaning meaningful cash inflow improvements are unlikely before 2027-2028.

The bank has set targets to reduce NPLs by 20-25 percent in the near term and 30-40 percent over time, and has engaged international asset recovery firms to trace and reclaim overseas assets linked to defaulted loans.

“While this is a time-intensive process, early indications suggest some progress,” says the bank’s CEO.

On costs, the bank is targeting a 25 percent year-on-year reduction and has already achieved around 15 percent savings in recent quarters.

The private bank’s overall recovery plan spans three to five years -- from 2025 through 2027 and beyond -- and a longer-term vision extending up to a decade.

The timeline remains contingent on external economic conditions and policy support, but the direction is clearly focused on rebuilding stability and strengthening fundamentals.

Islam says the strategy is built around digital transformation, SME-focused lending, cost efficiency, deposit growth, and improved governance.

In terms of shareholder returns, he notes that the bank is not in a position to pay dividends in the near term due to its current financial condition.

Management remains focused on restoring profitability and operational stability before resuming dividend payments, he adds.

The managing director described the current board of the bank as professional and supportive, with decision-making processes aligned with management priorities.

While acknowledging that governance issues may have contributed to past challenges, he emphasised that ongoing reforms are focused on strengthening transparency, accountability, and professionalism.

The Real Estate and Housing Association of Bangladesh (Rehab) has requested the opportunity to invest undisclosed money (black money) into the country's housing sector at a lower tax rate and without any questioning of the source.

The proposal was presented today (8 April) during a pre-budget discussion held at Agargaon in the capital.

Md Wahiduzzaman, president of Rehab, and Liakat Ali Bhuiyan, vice president of Rehab, highlighted the current state of the sector during the session.

In a written statement, the organisation urged "reintroducing the previous provision in the Income Tax Ordinance stating that no authority shall raise any questions regarding the source of funds for general buyers when purchasing flats."

Liakat Ali Bhuiyan, vice president of the organisation, stated, "Expatriates often do not provide a declaration after sending money, which then becomes undeclared or 'black money.' If they are not allowed to buy flats with this money, the capital is being siphoned abroad."

In response, NBR Chairman Abdur Rahman Khan said, "We have been in this culture for 55 years; we will not remain in it anymore."

Highlighting that it is now very easy to send money from abroad and that the government even provides incentives for using formal channels, he added, "Therefore, expatriates will whiten their money by paying taxes at the regular rate. It cannot be addressed in any other way."

In the 2020-21 fiscal year, the government introduced a provision allowing the investment of undisclosed money in the housing sector without any questions from authorities.

At that time, while general buyers paid up to 30% tax, the tax for investing black money was only 10%.

This provision faced widespread criticism, leading the government to gradually move away from this path.

Currently, there is no opportunity for a reduced 10% tax rate in the housing sector. Investors must pay the regular tax rate plus a penalty on that tax.

Additionally, the Anti-Corruption Commission (ACC) or any other government agency retains the right to question the source of the invested funds.

In addition to the demand regarding undisclosed money, Rehab's proposal included reducing existing registration costs for flat or apartment sales as well as providing special incentives to develop a secondary market for housing.

The World Bank projects lower economic growth for Bangladesh in the current fiscal year, stating that 12 lakh poor people will remain below the poverty line mainly due to the impact of the US-Israel war on Iran.

Today, the multilateral lender published its Bangladesh Development Update for April, a bi-annual publication of the World Bank.

Poverty and welfare outcomes deteriorated over 2022–25, driven by limited creation of productive jobs, weak labour income growth, and elevated inflation that reduced the poverty-reducing impact of growth, the lender said in its report.

Bangladesh’s national poverty rate is projected to have risen for a third consecutive year, increasing from 18.7 percent in 2022 to 21.4 percent in 2025.

Prior to the conflict in Middle East, about 1.7 million people were projected to get out of poverty this year, but due to conflict, now only 0.5 million people can exit poverty.

At the $3 international poverty line, an additional 1.4 million people are projected to have fallen into poverty over the same period, it added.

“A recovery projected for 2026 is now at risk — the Middle East conflict is expected to push an additional 1.2 million people below the poverty line, offsetting much of the projected improvement.”

The conflict is likely to materially affect Bangladesh’s economy, compounding existing vulnerabilities such as elevated inflation, financial sector struggles, constrained policy space, and weakened confidence.

Higher import costs, weaker exports, and falling remittances would add pressure to the current account balance, while rising energy prices and exchange rate pressures would further fuel inflation. Higher energy subsidies would also squeeze fiscal space.

Addressing these risks demands a coherent stabilisation strategy — backed by structural reforms — to build buffers, restore confidence, revive investment, and put growth on a sustainable footing.

The World Bank has downgraded Bangladesh’s near-term outlook, revising real GDP growth for FY26 down to 3.9 percent from the previous projection of 4.6 percent in January 2026.

The downward adjustment reflects the combined impact of the ongoing Middle East conflict and persistent domestic macroeconomic challenges, including elevated inflation, weak investment, and financial sector vulnerabilities.

Inflation is expected to moderate compared to FY25 but remain elevated due to higher import and energy costs linked to the conflict.

Bangladesh’s foreign exchange (forex) market remains stable and there is no immediate pressure to devalue the Taka, according to a recent assessment by Bangladesh Bank.

The central bank said despite some media reports suggesting a possible devaluation, the supply and demand for foreign currency are currently balanced.

As of April 6, 2026, the banking sector holds around $3.9 billion in foreign currency liquidity, up from $2.3 billion at the end of February 2026.

Cash holdings of foreign currency in banks also rose slightly, from $47.6 million on February 26 to $49 million by April 6.

Bangladesh’s foreign exchange reserves currently stand at approximately $34.35 billion.

Central bank officials noted that reserves could have approached $36 billion if Bangladesh Bank had actively purchased dollars to maintain market liquidity.

Notably, the central bank has not bought any dollars from the market over the past month, even though banks’ Net Open Position (NOP) reached about $1 billion—well above the usual $600–700 million threshold that typically prompts such purchases.

The market stability is supported by a surge in remittance inflows.

In March 2026, Bangladesh received $3.775 billion in remittances—the highest for any single month to date. This trend has continued into April, with $660 million received in the first six days, a 20.5 percent increase compared to the same period last year.

Foreign payments continue to be regular and well-managed.

In the past month, Bangladesh settled $1.37 billion in Asian Clearing Union (ACU) bills. Additionally, around $180 million in government foreign debt has been repaid recently.

The central bank stated that the forex market is operating under normal mechanisms, without significant value-based pressure on the dollar. Strong remittance flows and disciplined market behavior continue to ensure a secure foreign exchange environment.

Bangladesh’s economy may have expanded at a slower pace in March, primarily driven by the manufacturing sector’s first contraction after 18 consecutive months of growth, according to the latest Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI).

Bangladesh’s PMI declined by 2.2 points to 52.5 in March compared to the previous month, according to the report issued yesterday by the Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Dhaka (MCCI) and Policy Exchange Bangladesh (PEB).

The PMI is a forward-looking indicator used globally to gauge economic direction. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction.

“The March PMI readings point to moderate economic growth, largely driven by a manufacturing sector slowdown due to extended holidays and global demand uncertainties stemming from the Middle East crisis,” said M Masrur Reaz, chairman and CEO of PEB.

He added that the US-Israeli war on Iran has weakened economic momentum through heightened inflationary pressures and risks of supply disruptions, increasing the economy’s vulnerability.

A decline in new orders, exports, finished goods, imports, and employment fuelled the downturn in the manufacturing sector. However, factory output and input purchases continued to expand, and order backlogs returned to growth.

The construction sector remained in the downtrend for the second consecutive month, while the agriculture sector saw its seventh month of expansion, albeit at a slower pace.

Agriculture reported slower expansion in business activity and input costs. While order backlogs grew, the sector faced tightening in new business and employment.

Construction continued its decline, with new business and activity levels falling. While employment and order backlogs in the sector rebounded, input costs rose at a faster pace.

The services sector continued its momentum, recording its 18th consecutive month of expansion with slightly accelerated growth across new business, employment, and business activity.

Looking ahead, the future business index signals continued expansion across all key sectors, agriculture, manufacturing, construction, and services, reflecting sustained business optimism, the report said.

The MCCI and PEB began publishing the PMI in January last year. Initiated by the UK government, the index covers over 500 private sector firms.

Linde Bangladesh has announced a 100% cash dividend for the year 2025, maintaining a strong payout for shareholders despite a significant decline in profit compared to the previous year.

The decision was taken at a board meeting held on Wednesday (8 April) of the multinational industrial and medical gas producer, according to a price sensitive disclosure. The company has scheduled its annual general meeting for 10 June, while the record date has been fixed for 29 April.

For the year ended 2025, the company reported a net profit of Tk34 crore, with earnings per share (EPS) standing at Tk22.60. This marks a sharp drop from the previous year's EPS of Tk421.9, which had been exceptionally high due to a one-off gain.

The company clarified that its 2024 earnings were significantly boosted by income generated from the divestment of its hard goods business.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) today (8 April) kept its key interest rate unchanged, citing inflationary pressures driven by higher import costs following the recent West Asia conflict.

Announcing the first bi-monthly monetary policy of the fiscal year, RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) unanimously decided to retain the repo rate at 5.3% while maintaining a neutral stance.

The decision comes after the six-week-long Middle East war disrupted global energy supplies, pushed up crude oil prices and triggered inflationary and fiscal pressures for import-dependent economies such as India, the world's third-largest energy consumer.

This is the first monetary policy review after the Indian government announced a fresh retail inflation target of 4% with a margin of 2% on either side for another five years ending March 2031.

The central bank's pause follows easing inflation, with the consumer price index (CPI)-based headline inflation falling to 3.2% in February, closer to its medium-term target.

Meanwhile, the Indian rupee has depreciated by more than 4% since the conflict began on 28 February.

The United Kingdom’s visiting trade envoy, Baroness Rosie Winterton of Doncaster, has called on Bangladesh to increase exports to her country utilising the Developing Countries Trading Scheme (DCTS), which offers duty-free access.

During a meeting with Commerce Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury at the Secretariat yesterday, she pointed to scope for increasing exports beyond ready-made garments, including processed foods, seafood, light engineering and leather goods.

She also encouraged Bangladesh to make use of approximately £2 billion in export credit facilities available under UK Export Finance for increased infrastructure and other investments, according to a commerce ministry press statement.

During the meeting, both sides agreed to reactivate the Bangladesh–UK Trade and Investment Dialogue, the statement adds.

The DCTS, which replaced the UK’s Generalised Scheme of Preferences, came into force on 19 June 2023. Under the scheme, the UK cuts tariffs, removes conditions and simplifies trading rules for 65 developing countries.

The scheme heavily benefits UK businesses and consumers by reducing the import cost of thousands of products from around the world. Importers enjoy zero percent import tariff on 99.8 percent of products from 47 eligible least developed countries (LDCs), including Bangladesh, under the scheme’s Comprehensive Preferences tier.

The UK has confirmed it will maintain duty-free access for Bangladeshi goods under DCTS even after Bangladesh graduates from LDC status.

During the meeting with the UK envoy, Minister Chowdhury said the government has been working to improve the investment climate, cut logistics costs and ease doing business.

He said Bangladesh is pursuing free trade agreements and economic partnership agreements with several countries and intends to deepen trade ties with the UK.

The UK is Bangladesh’s third-largest export destination after the United States and Germany.

In the last fiscal year 2024-25, Bangladesh exported $4.62 billion worth of goods to the European country, accounting for 9.57 percent of total exports, according to data from the Bangladesh High Commission in London.

The major exportable items include ready-made garments, frozen food, IT engineering, leather and jute goods, and bicycles, with knitwear and woven garments accounting for 90 percent of total exports.

Shahjalal Islami Bank has reported a sharp rise in profitability for 2025, driven by strong growth in investment income and improved operational performance, while announcing a higher cash dividend for its shareholders.

According to the bank's latest price sensitive disclosure, its consolidated net profit surged 118% year-on-year to Tk368 crore in 2025, up from Tk169 crore in the previous year.

The robust earnings performance lifted consolidated earnings per share (EPS) to Tk3.31, compared with Tk1.52 a year earlier.

The bank also reported improved financial strength, with consolidated net asset value per share rising to Tk23.07 from Tk21.09 in 2024. Meanwhile, consolidated net operating cash flow per share increased to Tk12.28 from Tk8.03, reflecting stronger cash generation from core operations.

On the back of this improved performance, the board of directors recommended a 13% cash dividend for the year, up from 10% cash dividend declared in 2024. The decision was taken at a board meeting held today (8 April).

The bank attributed the strong profit growth mainly to higher net investment income, increased earnings from shares and securities, and a rise in other operating income. Improved cash flow was supported by higher investment income and increased placements with banks and financial institutions.

To approve the audited financial statements and dividend, the bank has scheduled its annual general meeting for 24 May, with the record date set for 30 April.

Market analysts view the strong earnings growth and higher dividend as positive signals for investors, particularly at a time when the banking sector is navigating various economic challenges.

The bank's shares responded positively on the Dhaka Stock Exchange, rising 2.29% today to close at Tk17.90.

As of March, sponsor-directors held 43.08% of the bank's shares, while institutional investors owned 24.25%. General investors accounted for the remaining 32.67%, indicating a balanced ownership structure.