CAPM BDBL Mutual Fund 01, a closed-end mutual fund, has returned to profitability in the first nine months of the 2025-26 fiscal year, recovering from a big loss during the same period last year.

According to the unaudited financial statements presented at a trustee meeting yesterday, the organisation posted a net profit of Tk3.43 crore for the July-March period, though it had incurred a heavy loss in the corresponding period of the previous fiscal year.

The fund's earnings per unit (EPU) stood at Tk0.69 for the first nine months of FY26, a sharp recovery compared to a loss per unit of Tk0.83 a year ago.

The performance in the third quarter (January-March) also showed a positive trend as it reported a net profit of Tk1.47 crore, yielding an EPU of Tk0.29. This marks an improvement from the January-March quarter of the previous year, when the fund suffered a net loss of Tk3.17 crore and a loss per unit of Tk0.63.

As of March 31 this year, the total Net Asset Value (NAV) of the fund stood at Tk55.62 crore on a cost-price basis and Tk41.85 crore on a market-price basis.

The NAV per unit at cost price was recorded at Tk11.10, while its per unit at market price stood at Tk8.35, against a face value of Tk10 per unit.

The fund is managed by CAPM Company Limited, while the Investment Corporation of Bangladesh acts as its trustee and custodian.

Oil prices held around four-year highs Thursday while stocks fell after Donald Trump warned the US blockade of Iranian ports could last months as peace talks remained stalled.

While Tehran submitted a fresh proposal this week to reopen the crucial Strait of Hormuz, the US president reportedly did not believe it was not negotiating in good faith.

The Wall Street Journal said he had told national security officials to prepare for a long blockade to compel the Islamic republic to give up its nuclear programme.

At a meeting of oil executives Tuesday, he discussed efforts "to alleviate global oil markets and steps we could take to continue the current blockade for months if needed and minimise impact on American consumers", a White House official said on condition of anonymity.

Meanwhile, Trump told Axios: "The blockade is somewhat more effective than the bombing. They are choking like a stuffed pig. And it is going to be worse for them. They can't have a nuclear weapon."

He added that the naval action would not end until he had secured a deal with Tehran to address its nuclear programme.

In a post on his Truth Social platform, Trump said: "Iran can't get their act together. They don't know how to sign a nonnuclear deal. They better get smart soon!"

He posted an illustration of himself holding an assault rifle alongside the caption "NO MORE MR. NICE GUY!"

The prospect of the strait -- through which a fifth of world oil and gas passes -- being closed for months more sent crude surging to the highest level since 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine.

Brent for June delivery, which hit a peak of $122.53 Wednesday, was sitting around $120 in Asian trade, while West Texas Intermediate was around $108.

Analysts said traders were beginning to shift to the view that the crisis will not be as short as initially hoped.

Tech's AI rally

Stock markets also struggled, with Tokyo, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Sydney, Seoul, Manila and Jakarta all down. There were gains in Singapore, Wellington and Taipei.

The dollar, seen as a safe haven during the crisis, rose against its peers.

However, equity traders remain relatively upbeat thanks to a revival of the AI trade, which has helped push Seoul's Kospi index to multiple record highs.

The country's Samsung Electronics reported a 750 percent surge in operating profit to a record high on Thursday, thanks to strong sales of chips crucial for artificial intelligence, while it also forecast healthy demand in the next three months.

That came after Microsoft, Meta and Google-parent Alphabet posted forecast-busting earnings.

US stock futures rose.

SPI Asset Management's Stephen Innes warned that the positive mood on stock markets could change.

"History tells us that this widening divide between stocks, oil, and rates can only stretch so far before the physical shock bleeds into the real economy," he wrote.

"Expensive energy is not abstract. It moves quietly through the system, from the pump to logistics to margins, eventually surfacing in the data that central banks respond to after the fact."

Investors were also assessing the outlook for the Federal Reserve's policy actions after four members of its decision-making body dissented on a vote, the most since 1992.

While it voted to hold interest rates owing to fears of a spike in inflation caused by surging energy costs, three "did not support inclusion of an easing bias in the statement at this time."

A fourth voting member, Trump-appointee Stephen Miran, had sought a quarter-point cut.

The meeting was the last with Jerome Powell as Fed boss, with Kevin Warsh -- the president's pick -- to take over next month.

Trump spent much of his second term blasting Powell for not cutting borrowing costs quickly enough.

Key figures at 0300 GMT

West Texas Intermediate: UP 1.9 percent at $108.92 a barrel

Brent North Sea Crude: UP 2.9 percent at $121.48 a barrel

Tokyo - Nikkei 225: DOWN 1.0 percent at 59,304.62 (break)

Hong Kong - Hang Seng Index: DOWN 1.3 percent at 25,763.07

Shanghai - Composite: DOWN 0.1 percent at 4,104.67

Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.1668 from $1.1695 on Wednesday

Pound/dollar: DOWN at $1.3476 from $1.3489

Dollar/yen: UP at 160.34 yen from 160.23 yen

Euro/pound: DOWN at 86.58 pence from 86.71 pence

New York - Dow: DOWN 0.6 percent at 48,861.81 (close)

London - FTSE 100: DOWN 1.2 percent at 10,213.11 (close)

Bangladesh's banking sector is facing mounting pressure in the capital market as at least 10 more listed banks are set to be downgraded to the Dhaka Stock Exchange's (DSE) 'Z' category, commonly known as junk stocks, after failing to declare dividends for two consecutive years.

Sources at the DSE said the affected banks include AB Bank, Al-Arafah Islami Bank, IFIC Bank, Mercantile Bank, NRB Bank, NRBC Bank, ONE Bank, Premier Bank, Rupali Bank and United Commercial Bank. If implemented, this will mark the first time these lenders fall into the lowest trading category.

A senior official of the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) said the banks will be downgraded to the 'Z' category from today, the first trading session of the week.

The development follows a similar move earlier this week, when Islami Bank Bangladesh, Standard Islami Bank and SBAC Bank were downgraded after failing to reward shareholders for two consecutive years.

Market sources said the primary reason behind the sector-wide dividend drought is a large provision shortfall against classified loans and investments. Under Bangladesh Bank regulations, lenders with provision deficits are barred from declaring dividends.

To remain compliant with regulatory requirements, several banks have reportedly taken deferral facilities from the central bank, effectively postponing financial obligations while remaining unable to distribute profits.

Financial data for 2025 reflects significant stress in the sector. AB Bank reported a consolidated loss of Tk 3,889 crore alongside a provision shortfall of Tk 16,874 crore.

IFIC Bank posted a loss of Tk 2,560 crore with a shortfall of Tk 18,557 crore.

Even banks that managed marginal profits remain under pressure. United Commercial Bank reported a profit of Tk 23.25 crore, while ONE Bank posted Tk 29.84 crore, both facing provision gaps exceeding Tk 5,000 crore and Tk 1,700 crore, respectively.

Al-Arafah Islami Bank reported a consolidated profit of Tk 85 crore against a provision shortfall of Tk 4,998 crore. Mercantile Bank posted a profit of Tk 121 crore with a shortfall of Tk 2,161 crore.

NRB Bank earned Tk 13.81 crore profit with a Tk 180 crore shortfall, while NRBC Bank reported Tk 13.25 crore profit against a Tk 1,006 crore gap.

Premier Bank incurred a loss of Tk 993 crore with a Tk 6,089 crore provision shortfall, while Standard Islami Bank reported a profit of Tk 80.34 crore against a Tk 5,904 crore shortfall.

Rupali Bank posted a profit of Tk 23.25 crore but faced a Tk 14,014 crore provision gap.

Islami Bank Bangladesh reported the highest provision shortfall at Tk 84,615 crore, despite posting a profit of Tk 136 crore in 2025.

Market experts said the expected downgrade signals deteriorating fundamentals in the banking sector, raising concerns over governance, asset quality and risk management.

Z-category stocks are widely considered high-risk due to persistent compliance failures and weak financial health. These shares are subject to stricter trading rules, including a T+3 settlement cycle instead of T+2, cash-only transactions and restrictions on margin loans, significantly reducing liquidity.

Currently, 36 banks are listed on the country's stock exchanges. With 10 more banks set to join the five already in the junk category, a total of 15 banks, around 42% of listed banking stocks will be in the 'Z' category.

This does not include five other banks, Social Islami Bank, Exim Bank, Global Islami Bank, First Security Islami Bank and Union Bank, whose shares remain suspended due to merger-related processes with Sommilito Islami Bank, though they are yet to be formally delisted.

Analysts attribute the growing crisis to a surge in non-performing loans, many of which were allegedly disbursed without adequate due diligence in previous years.

Following regulatory tightening in 2024, scrutiny has intensified, exposing deeper weaknesses in loan portfolios across several banks.

A senior market analyst said that while stricter regulatory measures are necessary to restore discipline in the sector, general shareholders are bearing the cost of governance failures and deteriorating asset quality, as dividend flows continue to shrink.

Bangladesh has stayed off the latest United States intellectual property (IP) rights watch lists, but Washington has still urged Dhaka to strengthen enforcement to prevent unfair trade practices.

In its annual Special 301 Report released on Thursday, the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) identified 26 trading partners for intellectual property protection and enforcement concerns.

It grouped them into three categories -- Priority Foreign Country, Priority Watch List and Watch List.

In this year’s report, Vietnam has been designated a Priority Foreign Country, a rare and severe classification that can trigger a trade investigation. The USTR said Vietnam has failed to address long-standing concerns over intellectual property protection and enforcement.

The designation is reserved for countries with the most serious IP-related practices that have a significant impact on US industries and are not making meaningful progress in negotiations or reforms.

The report said Vietnam had shown a persistent failure to resolve long-standing concerns. The United States first raised the issue in 2020 through a proposed IP Work Plan, followed by a revised proposal in 2023.

The USTR report added that Vietnam has made little progress in later bilateral engagement, including talks linked to an Agreement on Reciprocal, Fair, and Balanced Trade. Vietnam’s actions or inactions are causing significant damage to industries reliant on intellectual property in the US and other markets.

This year, the USTR placed six countries on its Priority Watch List. Those are Chile, China, India, Indonesia, Russia and Venezuela.

It said it would seek to engage intensively with these partners over the coming year.

A further 19 trading partners have been placed on the Watch List. Those are Algeria, Argentina, Barbados, Belarus, Bolivia, Brazil, Canada, Colombia, Ecuador, Egypt, the European Union, Guatemala, Mexico, Pakistan, Paraguay, Peru, Thailand, Trinidad and Tobago and Türkiye.

Argentina and Mexico have been moved from the Priority Watch List to the Watch List, reflecting improvements in intellectual property policy. Bulgaria has been removed from the list, while the European Union has been added.

Regarding Bangladesh, the USTR pointed to commitments made under a recently signed Agreement on Reciprocal Trade. This includes broad commitments on market access, economic and national security, and trade standards, including intellectual property.

Apart from Bangladesh, the United States has so far completed such agreements with Argentina, Cambodia, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Indonesia, Malaysia and Taiwan.

These agreements, the USTR said, contain commitments aimed at strengthening intellectual property protection and enforcement against piracy and counterfeiting.

Citing a study by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the European Union Intellectual Property Office (EUIPO), released in May 2025, the USTR report said global trade in counterfeit and pirated goods reached $467 billion in 2021, equal to 2.3 percent of global imports.

USTR said Bangladesh was among the top five source economies for counterfeit clothing globally.

In fiscal 2025, China and Hong Kong together accounted for more than 87 percent of the value of counterfeit and pirated goods seized by US Customs and Border Protection, measured by manufacturers’ suggested retail price.

The report also highlighted ongoing US concerns over the EU’s aggressive geographical indication policies.

It said that the EU’s rules on geographical indications unfairly block American exporters from selling goods under familiar names or trademarks. To counter this, the US is pressing its case in trade talks and global forums such as the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation, World Intellectual Property Organization and the World Trade Organization.

It is also negotiating directly with individual countries, including Bangladesh, Brazil, Canada, China, Mexico and others, to ensure American producers can keep access to foreign markets.

The USTR said the Agreement on Reciprocal Trade signatories included provisions aimed at protecting US market access for cheese and meat producers using common names. It said these agreements also include commitments on transparency and fairness in geographical indication protections.

Delays in trademark registration, the report added, remain a major obstacle to protecting intellectual property rights.

Stakeholders identified Bangladesh, Iraq and South Africa as countries with severe delays in processing applications.

Rice supply is expected to fall this year as farmers cut planting acreage across Asia because of fertiliser shortages and soaring fuel costs from the Iran war, with an emerging El Nino also set to squeeze output of the world's most consumed staple.

Rice is central to global food security, and even modest supply disruptions can ripple through countries, lifting prices and straining household budgets, particularly among price-sensitive consumers in Asia and Africa. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization in April forecast rice output would expand by 2% to a record high in 2025/26.

The effects of the Iran war are impacting farmers in top exporters Thailand and Vietnam as well as the import-reliant Philippines and Indonesia, growers and traders said. The war has cut fuel and fertiliser flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint that connects the Gulf to global markets.

Southeast Asia's mainly smallholder farmers also face mounting stress as the El Nino weather phenomenon is set to usher in hotter, drier conditions for the region in the second half of the year.

"Farmers have already started planting rice in some countries and are using fewer inputs because prices have gone up," said Maximo Torero, chief economist at the UN FAO. "We are going to see a tighter global supply situation in the second half of the year and early next year."

In 2008, export curbs by key suppliers more than doubled prices to about $1,000 a metric ton, triggering unrest in several countries. More recently, supply tightness in 2022 to 2023, exacerbated by India's export restrictions, lifted prices and prompted panic buying.

Supply-chain disruption

Rice shipments are already facing supply-chain bottlenecks.

"Logistics have become a nightmare, especially in Asia as there is shortage of polypropylene bags, limited truck availability to move rice to ports and shipping itself has been disrupted," said a Singapore-based trader at a top global rice merchant, who asked to remain unidentified as they are not authorised to speak to media.

While fertiliser shortages and dryness are already curbing yields of smaller crops being harvested in Southeast Asia, the next crop will likely face a bigger reduction.

India, Thailand and the Philippines plant their main crops in June and July, while Vietnam and Indonesia are now sowing their second-season crops.

Most Asian producers grow two or three rice crops a year.

Farmers cut planting

Sripai Kaew-Eam, a 60-year-old farmer in Thailand's Chai Nat province about 151 km (94 miles) north of Bangkok, said high fertiliser and fuel prices have pushed production costs to about 6,000 baht ($183.99) per rai (0.4 acre), from around 4,500 to 5,000 baht for the previous crop, while the price she receives for the unhusked rice she harvests is about 6,200 baht per metric ton.

Fertiliser prices have risen to 1,000 to 1,200 baht per bag, from 850 baht, forcing her to cut her use by half.

"Fertiliser prices are high, fuel prices are high," she said.

The Philippines, the world's biggest rice importer, faces a similar situation.

"Some farmers are now saying they may not plant or will reduce fertiliser use, which would inevitably cut production," said Arze Glipo, executive director of the Integrated Rural Development Foundation.

The country's output could fall by as much as 6 million tons from its typical 19 million to 20 million.

"That would leave the Philippines in a precarious position, as imports are also uncertain due to export restrictions, making it extremely difficult to cover any production shortfall," Glipo said.

In Indonesia, fertiliser supply is not a constraint but the El Nino is expected to curb output.

Indonesia's statistics bureau estimates the rice harvest area in the March to May period will shrink by 10.6% to 3.85 million hectares (9.5 million acres), while unhusked rice production will drop 11.12% to 20.68 million tons.

Despite the supply worries, the world has ample rice inventories following years of bumper output, with India, the world's biggest exporter, holding a record 42 million tons or about one-fifth of global stockpiles, according to US Department of Agriculture data, cushioning any drop in global production.

Most rice grade prices are currently steady but will likely rise even if the Hormuz situation were resolved immediately, the FAO's Torero said.

Opening the strait soon would avoid a major supply issue but "if we don't reopen this in the next two to three weeks, the situation is going to get pretty serious," he said.

The government has authorised BRAC Bank PLC and Pubali Bank PLC to act as primary dealers (PD) for government securities for a three-year term, which will officially commence from the first working day of May this year.

The appointment was formalised by the Bangladesh Bank today (30 April) following a directive from the Finance Division of the Ministry of Finance.

With this appointment, both banks will now share the bidding obligations currently performed by 24 existing primary dealer banks in the auctions for government treasury bills and bonds.

As primary dealers, these banks are mandated to participate in auctions to help finance the government's budget deficit, ensuring a steady flow of funds through the sovereign debt market.

According to the letter from the finance ministry, the authorisation was granted under the provisions of the 'Guidelines for Enlistment and Operations of Primary Dealers in Government Securities, 2025 (Amended)'.

Islami Bank Bangladesh PLC, SBAC Bank and Standard Bank have been downgraded to the Z category for failing to declare dividends for the last two consecutive years.

According to the Dhaka Stock Exchange, brokerage firms and merchant banks have been instructed not to provide margin loans against the shares of these banks.

Following the downgrade, the share prices of the three banks fell sharply in the opening session today (30 April).

Islami Bank Bangladesh PLC has posted a consolidated profit of Tk136 crore for the year ended December 2025, but the earnings were overshadowed by a staggering Tk84,615 crore provision shortfall against its classified investments, highlighting continued strain in its balance sheet.

Despite the profit, the bank's financial health remains under pressure, according to a price-sensitive disclosure filed with the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE).

The lender's result was largely supported by a regulatory deferral facility from Bangladesh Bank, which allowed the provision gap to be spread over 20 years under a recovery plan submitted last October.

However, key indicators point to weakening fundamentals. Net operating cash flow dropped by Tk5,107 crore in 2025, while investment recovery slowed. Deposits from banks and financial institutions also declined by Tk9,662 crore, reflecting liquidity pressure.

The bank's earnings trajectory has also remained weak, falling from Tk635 crore in 2023 to Tk108 crore in 2024 before edging up to Tk136 crore in 2025.

At the end of 2025, consolidated earnings per share stood at Tk0.85, while net asset value per share rose slightly to Tk44.52 from Tk44.36 a year earlier.

A major concern, according to banking sources, remains the bank's exposure to S Alam Group, which along with its affiliates reportedly borrowed over Tk73,000 crore almost half of the bank's total investment portfolio.

Although assets worth around Tk20,000 crore linked to the group have been attached, recovery has been slow due to weak auction response.

The bank has also skipped dividend payments for the second consecutive year and has been downgraded to the 'Z' category on the stock exchange for the first time, reflecting heightened financial stress.

Following the disclosure, the bank's share price fell over 4% to Tk33.30.

The AGM has been scheduled for 25 June, with the record date set for 21 May.

Meanwhile, management reshuffles are underway, with Managing Director Md Omar Faruk Khan sent on extended leave and Md Altaf Hossain appointed as acting MD amid ongoing regulatory oversight and restructuring efforts.

The parliament yesterday (30 April) passed two separate bills removing the maximum age limits for the post of chairmen and commissioners of the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC), as well as the chairman and members of the Insurance Development and Regulatory Authority (IDRA).

Previously, the age limits stood at 65 years for the BSEC and 67 years for the IDRA. With the passage of these amendments, the government will now be able to appoint individuals of any age to lead these two key financial regulatory bodies.

Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury, who moved the bills, argued that the amendments were intended to make the laws more time-appropriate by allowing the recruitment of highly qualified, experienced, and skilled professionals.

He said that when the securities law was originally enacted in 1993, the average life expectancy in Bangladesh was around 57 years, whereas it now stands at 72 years. He stated that retaining the earlier age limits would prevent capable individuals from contributing effectively to the financial sector.

However, the bills faced strong resistance from opposition and independent lawmakers.

Independent lawmaker Rumeen Farhana called for the bills to be opened to public scrutiny, highlighting that retail investors suffered massive losses during the 1996 and 2010 market crashes, while over Tk1 lakh crore was allegedly siphoned off over the past 15 years.

Opposition lawmaker Akhter Hossen questioned whether the amendment was genuinely intended to find capable leaders or merely to facilitate the appointment of favoured individuals. Leader of the Opposition Shafiqur Rahman alleged that lawmakers were not given adequate time to review the documents.

Despite the opposing calls to send the bills to a standing committee for further review, the bills were ultimately passed by voice vote.

India and Bangladesh are taking steps to normalise bilateral relations by moving towards the full resumption of visa services, following a period of strained ties and restricted travel.

Bangladesh has already resumed issuing visas to Indian citizens across all categories, including tourism, business and medical travel, while India is aiming for a gradual restart of its visa operations over the coming weeks, says the Indian Express.

Indian visa services for Bangladeshi nationals are currently operating at 15–20% of their pre-December 2025 capacity, with priority given to medical cases and family emergencies. In contrast, Bangladesh has issued more than 13,000 visas to Indians since restoring operations around 20 February 2026.

The move follows a period of political upheaval after the August 2024 ouster of former prime minister Sheikh Hasina. Relations are being recalibrated under the new government of Prime Minister Tarique Rahman, whose swearing-in in February 2026 was attended by an Indian delegation.

Travel between the two countries had declined sharply amid tensions and visa curbs. The number of Bangladeshi visitors to India fell from 2.12 million in 2023 to 470,000 in 2025.

Officials in both countries have indicated that efforts to restore visa services are part of broader attempts to rebuild cooperation, including through high-level political engagement and closer economic and energy ties.

India recently transported diesel to Bangladesh to help ease energy shortages linked to the war in West Asia.

The expected arrival of India's new High Commissioner to Bangladesh, Dinesh Trivedi, is seen as a step that could facilitate the return to full-scale visa operations.

The vast majority of Bangladesh’s workforce remains in marginal conditions, outside the reach of formal labour protections, experts warned yesterday, calling for a shift in policy focus beyond the garment sector.

Around 85 percent of workers are engaged in the informal sector with little regulation or protection, Syed Sultan Uddin Ahmmed, former chairman of the Labour Reform Commission, said at a May Day discussion in Dhaka.

The programme, held at the Economics Reporters Forum office, was organised by the Network for People’s Action (NPA), a newly formed political party.

At the event, Ahmmed also noted that the dominance of ready-made garments (RMG) in national and international labour discourse obscures a far wider problem.

“As an export-oriented industry, the RMG sector remains at the centre of national and international discussion. While this sector is important, it should not overshadow the broader reality,” he said.

A stronger industrial base and labour movement in large sectors could eventually benefit workers in other areas, he said, calling for a more inclusive labour perspective.

“Sanitation workers, day labourers and informal workers continue to live in precarious conditions,” said the labour policy expert.

He added, “We celebrate long holidays, but for day labourers, even a few days without work can mean going without food… Yet there is no universal social security system to protect them.”

Ahmmed also criticised existing social protection measures as charity-driven rather than rights-based. “The fact that a single rainy day can leave a labourer’s family without food rarely enters policy thinking.”

Echoing the same, Prof Selim Raihan, executive director of the South Asian Network on Economic Modeling (Sanem), said the garment sector’s export growth had not translated into proportional gains for workers.

“Productivity has increased over the decades, yet real wages have lagged. That disconnect tells us something fundamental about the structure of our growth,” he said.

Raihan also pointed to a persistent narrative that stronger labour rights would hurt competitiveness. “This (narrative) has often been used to discourage workers from organising or demanding more.”

He added that labour discussions in Bangladesh too often stop at minimum standards.

“We rarely move beyond ensuring the bare minimum to discussing living wages or broader social protections,” he said.

Among others, Taslima Akhter, president of the Bangladesh Garment Sramik Samhati, also spoke at the event.

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi vowed on Saturday to strengthen bilateral ties with Vietnam, with energy cooperation and critical minerals at the forefront, during a meeting with Vietnamese Prime Minister Le Minh Hung.

The pledge came as new Japanese investment in Vietnam fell about 75% year-on-year to $233 million in the first quarter, even as bilateral trade rose 12.3% to $13.7 billion over the same period, according to Vietnamese government and customs data.

The two leaders discussed ways to deepen the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership established in 2023, focusing on energy, critical minerals, artificial intelligence, semiconductors and space.

"The two sides identified economic security as a new priority area for bilateral cooperation," Takaichi told reporters after the meeting.

"With regard to critical minerals... both sides agreed to strengthen close coordination to ensure stable supplies and reinforce supply chains," she added.

In a joint move, Vietnam and Japan signed six agreements encompassing infrastructure, climate action, agriculture, technology, digitalisation and space cooperation.

Japan remains one of Vietnam's largest foreign investors, with many Japanese multinationals operating large manufacturing facilities in the country.

Vietnam has been seeking support from Japan and other countries for oil supplies as conflict in the Middle East drives prices higher and disrupts supply chains.

Under the $10 billion Power Asia Initiative to support Asian countries' energy self-reliance, Japan will assist in arranging crude oil supplies for Vietnam's Nghi Son Refinery and Petrochemical Complex, Hung said.

Takaichi was also set to meet Vietnam's Party Secretary and President To Lam on Saturday afternoon and deliver a keynote speech at Vietnam National University, marking a decade since former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe introduced Japan's "Free and Open Indo-Pacific" strategy.

Her address is expected to emphasise autonomy and resilience for regional nations.

Vietnam supports Japan's regional initiatives, including the Free and Open Indo-Pacific Vision, aligned with the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific, in accordance with international law and "contributing positively to peace, stability, cooperation and development in the region and beyond," Hung said.

Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Thursday that the OPEC+ group of leading oil producers would continue working together despite the departure of the United Arab Emirates, Russian news agencies reported.

According to the reports, Novak said he did not expect an oil price war to emerge following the UAE's exit given a global oil deficit.

The UAE said on Tuesday it was quitting OPEC, dealing a blow to the oil producers' group as an unprecedented energy crisis triggered by the Iran war exposes discord among Gulf nations.

The UAE was the fourth-largest producer in OPEC+, which comprises OPEC and its allies, while Russia is second, behind Saudi Arabia.

"In the current situation, it is hard to talk about a price war when there is a shortage in the market. What we are seeing instead is the deepest crisis in the industry," Novak was quoted as saying by Interfax news agency.

"Large volumes of oil are not reaching the market today, while demand significantly exceeds supply. This has created an imbalance due to serious logistical disruptions, including the situation in the Middle East," Novak said according to Interfax.

Novak also reiterated that Russia will remain in OPEC+, which was formed in 2016.

Bangladesh cited gaps in readiness, incomplete core reforms, and economic fallout from the Iran war as reasons for seeking an extension of the transition period for graduation from the least developed country (LDC) category by three more years at the public hearing of the UNCDP on April 29.

Commerce Minister Khandakar Abdul Muktadir attended the virtual hearing with Chair of the United Nations Committee for Development Policy (UNCDP) José Antonio Ocampo, Additional Commerce Secretary Md Abdur Rahim Khan told The Daily Star.

Khan also said the UNCDP wanted to know the reasons why Bangladesh is seeking an extension of the transition period for LDC graduation.

Bangladesh mainly cited the country’s gap in preparedness, lower implementation of core reforms, and the fallout of the US-Israel war on Iran as the main reasons for the requested extension, the additional secretary said.

Apart from these three main reasons, Bangladesh also mentioned vulnerabilities in the financial sector, weaknesses in the banking system, an export slowdown due to volatile global supply chains, high interest rates, and an uncertain business and investment climate in support of the extension, he said.

Bangladesh is scheduled to graduate from LDC status on November 24 this year, but it has sought to delay the transition until 2029, citing domestic and external economic pressures.

The UNCDP will prepare a report on Bangladesh’s hearing and submit its recommendations to the United Nations Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC) in June.

The ECOSOC will then forward its assessment to the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA), scheduled to meet in September, where a vote will finalise the decision on the deferment.

Earlier, on February 19, the newly elected government sent a letter to the chair of the UNCDP, requesting that the preparatory period be extended until November 24, 2029, mentioning that more time is needed to ensure readiness.

Following Bangladesh’s request, the UNCDP discussed the issue at its annual meeting in February and agreed on a process to assess the proposal.

The business community of the country has also been requesting both the incumbent government and the immediate past interim government to delay the LDC graduation, as they need more time to prepare adequately. They said higher bank interest rates and political transition in the country, following massive unrest and political upheaval, have also affected the economy significantly.

A UN assessment report in March stated that Bangladesh still faces serious gaps in its readiness for graduation, as its economy continues to be affected by both domestic and international shocks, including the US-Israel war on Iran.

The report highlighted a series of disruptions between 2017 and 2026, including climate vulnerability, the Rohingya crisis, a prolonged macroeconomic slowdown that predated the regime change, the Covid-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine war, inflation, and pressure on the balance of payments.

It also noted that while Bangladesh meets all three criteria for graduation, significant risks persist, including the loss of trade preferences, fiscal and financial vulnerabilities, and weak institutional coordination.

Rising import costs for fossil fuels have created operational constraints, with gas shortages worsening due to the Middle East conflict, the report said.

Economic growth slowed from 7.1 percent in FY22 to 3.5 percent in FY25, weakening momentum ahead of graduation.

Inflation has outpaced wages, pushing millions into hardship and vulnerability.

A recent UN Trade and Development assessment estimated that Bangladesh could lose more than $17.5 billion in annual exports after graduation.

Rice supply is expected to fall this year as farmers cut planting acreage across Asia because of fertiliser shortages and soaring fuel costs ​from the Iran war, with an emerging El Nino also set to squeeze output of the world’s most consumed staple.

Rice is central to global food security, ‌and even modest supply disruptions can ripple through countries, lifting prices and straining household budgets, particularly among price-sensitive consumers in Asia and Africa. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization in April forecast rice output would expand by 2 percent to a record high in 2025/26.

The effects of the Iran war are impacting farmers in top exporters Thailand and Vietnam as well as the import-reliant Philippines and Indonesia, growers and traders said. The war has cut fuel and fertiliser ​flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint that connects the Gulf to global markets.

Rice is central to global food security, ‌and even modest supply disruptions can ripple through countries, lifting prices and straining household budgets, particularly among price-sensitive consumers in Asia and Africa
Southeast Asia’s mainly smallholder farmers also face mounting stress as the El Nino ​weather phenomenon is set to usher in hotter, drier conditions for the region in the second half of the year.

“Farmers have already started planting rice in some countries and are using fewer inputs because prices have gone up,” said Maximo Torero, chief economist at the UN FAO. “We are going to see a tighter global supply situation ​in the second half of the year and early next year.”

In 2008, export curbs by key suppliers more than doubled prices to about $1,000 a metric ton , triggering unrest in several countries. More recently, ​supply tightness in 2022 to 2023, exacerbated by India’s export restrictions, lifted prices and prompted panic buying.

SUPPLY-CHAIN DISRUPTION

Rice shipments are already facing supply-chain bottlenecks.

“Logistics have become a nightmare, especially in Asia as there is shortage of polypropylene bags, limited truck availability to move rice to ports and shipping itself has been disrupted,” said a Singapore-based trader at a top global rice merchant, who asked to remain unidentified as they are not authorized to speak ​to media.

While fertiliser shortages and dryness are already curbing yields of smaller crops being harvested in Southeast Asia, the next crop will likely face a bigger reduction.

India, Thailand and the Philippines plant ​their main crops in June and July, while Vietnam and Indonesia are now sowing their second-season crops.

Most Asian producers grow two or three rice crops a year.

FARMERS CUT PLANTING

Sripai Kaew-Eam, a 60-year-old farmer in Thailand’s ‌Chai Nat province about 151 km (94 miles) north of Bangkok, said high fertiliser and fuel prices have pushed production costs to about 6,000 baht ($183.99) per rai (0.4 acre), from around 4,500 to 5,000 baht for the previous crop, while the price she receives for the unhusked rice she harvests is about 6,200 baht per metric ton.

Fertiliser prices have risen to 1,000 to 1,200 baht per bag, from 850 baht, forcing her to cut her use by half.

“Fertiliser prices are high, fuel prices are high,” she said.

The Philippines, the world’s biggest rice importer, faces a similar situation.

“Some farmers are now saying they may ​not plant or will reduce fertiliser use, which ​would inevitably cut production,” said Arze Glipo, executive director of the Integrated Rural Development Foundation.

The country’s output could fall by as much as 6 million tons from its typical 19 million to 20 million.

“That would leave the Philippines in a precarious position, as imports are also uncertain due to export restrictions, making it extremely difficult to ​cover any production shortfall,” Glipo said. In Indonesia, fertiliser supply is not a constraint but the El Nino is expected to curb output.

Indonesia’s statistics ​bureau estimates the rice harvest area in the March to May period will shrink by 10.6 percent to 3.85 million hectares (9.5 million acres), while unhusked rice production will drop 11.12 percent to 20.68 million tons.

Despite the supply worries, the world has ample rice inventories following years of bumper output, with India, the world’s biggest exporter, holding a record 42 million tons or about one-fifth of global stockpiles, according to US Department of Agriculture data, cushioning any drop in ​global production.

Most rice grade prices are currently steady but will likely rise even if the Hormuz situation were resolved ​immediately, the FAO’s Torero said.

Opening the strait soon would avoid a major supply issue but “if we don’t reopen this in the next two to three weeks, the situation is going to get pretty serious,” he said.

More than half of the country’s scheduled banks will not be able to pay dividends this year, as rising bad loans and provisioning shortfalls continue to erode their financial strength.

This follows a dividend payout policy introduced by the Bangladesh Bank (BB) in March last year, which has tightened eligibility rules for profit distribution.

Under the policy, banks using provisioning deferrals are not allowed to issue dividends from 2024. From 2025 onwards, commercial lenders with non-performing loans (NPLs) above 10 percent of their total loan portfolio are also disqualified, regardless of profitability.

As of December last year, 29 banks, both state-owned and private, had double-digit NPL ratios. This accounts for nearly half of all scheduled banks. Of them, 17 listed lenders will be unable to pay dividends this year solely due to high defaulted loans.

Banks are required to finalise their balance sheets by April 30 under regulatory rules, and many have already announced dividend plans.

However, the central bank has withheld approval for more than 20 banks due to high levels of bad loans and the use of deferral facilities to meet provisioning requirements.

Some lenders even met the BB governor seeking approval, but failed to secure permission.

All state-owned banks are ineligible to pay dividends because of their high bad loan ratios. These include Krishi Bank, Agrani Bank, Janata Bank, Sonali Bank, Rupali Bank, Rajshahi Krishi Unnayan Bank, Probashi Kallyan Bank, BASIC Bank and Bangladesh Development Bank.

A large number of private commercial banks have also failed to qualify.

These include AB Bank, Modhumoti Bank, NRBC Bank, Al-Arafah Islami Bank, Standard Bank, One Bank, IFIC Bank, Islami Bank Bangladesh, ICB Islamic Bank, NRB Bank, Mercantile Bank, Global Islami Bank, EXIM Bank, First Security Islami Bank, Social Islami Bank, Union Bank, SBAC Bank, Padma Bank, United Commercial Bank, Shimanto Bank, National Bank, Premier Bank, Meghna Bank, Bangladesh Commerce Bank and Citizens Bank.

They have been disqualified due to elevated bad loans and reliance on provisioning deferral facilities. Some of these banks are still seeking approval to declare at least stock dividends and are continuing discussions with the central bank.

Tarek Reaz Khan, managing director and chief executive of NRB Bank PLC, said the bank will not be able to declare a dividend this year due to the BB policy.

“We are reducing our provisioning shortfall, and other financial indicators of the bank are improving,” he added.

Sharif Zahir, chairman of United Commercial Bank (UCB), said the bank’s financial position is improving.

“We submitted a three-year plan to the central bank and are working in line with it. However, we are still unable to pay dividends this year,” he said.

Md Touhidul Alam Khan, managing director of NRBC Bank, said the lender has improved across several indicators, including governance, but is unable to pay dividends due to the use of provisioning deferral facilities.

As per the BB rules, a bank may only pay cash dividends from the net profit of the relevant financial year and cannot use accumulated profits. Even then, payouts are capped at 30 percent of paid-up capital or 50 percent of net profit, whichever is lower.

Despite the restrictions, a small group of listed banks have declared dividends.

These include City Bank, BRAC Bank, Pubali Bank, Dhaka Bank, Uttara Bank, Eastern Bank, Prime Bank, NCC Bank, Dutch-Bangla Bank, Mutual Trust Bank, Bank Asia, Jamuna Bank, Shahjalal Islami Bank, Southeast Bank, Trust Bank and Midland Bank.

Outside of the listed category, Community Bank and Bengal Commercial Bank have declared dividends.

US President Donald Trump’s war with Iran was always unpopular at home. What made it tenable is that the American economy, buoyed by oil exports and an artificial-intelligence boom, ​seemed almost recession-proof. With the Strait of Hormuz still disrupted, however, even the world’s largest economy needs to reckon with ‌the possibility of a downturn.

Until recently, economic forecasts were relatively benign, especially for the United States. When the International Monetary Fund (IMF) updated its global projections earlier this month, its so-called baseline scenario still had world output expanding 3.1 percent this year. Only under its “severe scenario,” which assumed crude prices averaging $110 per barrel in 2026 and $125 in 2027, ​did the IMF foresee global growth falling below 2 percent, a pace consistent with outright contractions in many countries.

That hypothetical future no longer ​feels far-fetched. The key Brent crude oil price has traded persistently above $110 per barrel over the past week, even briefly surpassing $120 on Thursday.

On Thursday, official data showed a rebound in US GDP in the first quarter: output expanded at an annual 2 percent. ​This is far above growth rates in the euro zone and the United Kingdom. American unemployment, at 4.3 percent, remains low.

Consider the 1990 Gulf War, though. ​The US economy enjoyed solid growth and near-full employment at the time. But labour demand was softening and households were starting to get worried amid the savings and loan crisis. When oil prices surged 150 percent, consumer confidence collapsed and real-terms spending stalled. The Federal Reserve, constrained by rising inflation, was slow to ease policy.

Many ​of those conditions are echoed today, including a divided Fed likely to resist pressure from its new chair to cut rates. Surveys already show depressed ​consumer sentiment and higher inflation expectations.

Comparing oil shocks across decades is complicated by the fact that richer households now spend a smaller share of income on energy. In ‌recent years, energy goods and services have accounted for less than 4 percent of US disposable income, compared with about 5 percent before the Gulf War and 6 percent ahead of the 1970s crises.

One way to bridge that gap is to examine how much households are forced to raise that share when energy prices jump. One rule of thumb is that a 1 percent increase in American WTI oil prices typically lifts energy spending by roughly 0.22 percent. After July ​1990, the energy share of household ​incomes rose by about 0.3 percentage points, enough to tip the economy into recession, since higher energy bills forced consumers to cut spending elsewhere.

A shock of a similar size would emerge today if crude prices stayed where they are. And if oil ​hits $150 per barrel, the increase in the energy share would be 0.7 percentage points of disposable income. ​With oil at $200 per barrel, it would rise by a full percentage point. That would still be milder than the 1970s, but enough to hurt badly. Though far from certain, every new day makes a US recession look less outlandish.

US President Donald Trump will receive a briefing on April 30 regarding plans ​for new military operations in Iran, according to a report by Axios. It triggered ​renewed fears among traders of a monthslong standoff in the Middle East, sending oil prices up.

As of 1145 GMT on April 30, Brent crude and US WTI futures were trading ​at $114 per barrel and $104 per barrel respectively.

President Donald Trump said Friday that he will hike US tariffs on cars and trucks from the European Union next week, charging that the bloc is not complying with an earlier trade deal.

The pact, which was struck last summer, had capped the US tariff on EU autos and parts at 15 percent, which is lower than the 25-percent duty that Trump imposed on many other trading partners.

These sector-specific duties were not affected by a Supreme Court ruling earlier in the year that struck down a swath of Trump's global levies.

But the US leader said Friday: "Based on the fact the European Union is not complying with our fully agreed to Trade Deal, next week I will be increasing Tariffs charged to the European Union for Cars and Trucks coming into the United States."

"The Tariff will be increased to 25%," he wrote on his Truth Social platform.

He told a Florida event later Friday that Washington had informed Germany of his threat because "they and other European nations have not adhered to our trade deal."

He accused German automakers like Mercedes-Benz and BMW of ripping off Americans.

Trump's announcement came a day after his renewed criticism of German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. Trump told Merz to focus on ending the Ukraine war instead of "interfering" on Iran.

Germany would likely be hit hard by a sharp vehicle tariff, as it is responsible for a significant amount of EU auto exports.

Reacting to the announcement, a European Commission spokesperson told AFP: "Should the US take measures inconsistent with the joint statement, we will keep our options open to protect EU interests."

The spokesperson added that the bloc is implementing its commitments "in line with standard legislative practice" and keeping the Trump administration updated during this process.

Last July, the EU had laid the groundwork for possible retaliation if talks with Washington fell through -- preparing a list of US goods that could be targeted.

- 'Light a fire' -

"President Trump has clearly lost patience with EU efforts to implement its commitments under the bilateral trade deal concluded months ago," former US trade official Wendy Cutler told AFP.

She said Trump appeared to be "hoping to light a fire under Brussels to accelerate its domestic procedures."

His threats to the EU are reminiscent of a similar move against South Korea months ago, added Cutler, who is now senior vice president at the Asia Society Policy Institute.

In late March, EU lawmakers gave their green light to the bloc's tariff deal with Trump, but with conditions.

A large majority of EU lawmakers agreed to cut EU tariffs on some US imports, as a first step towards implementing the 2025 deal, but they also sought additional safeguards.

Although the European Parliament has given its conditional approval to the EU-US trade pact, before the deal is implemented by the bloc, it still needs to be negotiated with EU states.

The new threat on European cars "explain why many small businesses expect to be cautious" with Trump's tariffs, said Dan Anthony, who heads "We Pay the Tariffs," a coalition of nearly 1,200 small businesses.

"You never know what might trigger the next tariff threat," Anthony added in a statement.

In April, EU trade chief Maros Sefcovic was in Washington to meet with counterparts including US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and trade envoy Jamieson Greer.

At the time, he said the EU was also seeking more progress in easing the effects of still-steep US steel tariffs, adding that talks were going in a positive direction.

The United States is the second largest market for new EU vehicle exports, after the United Kingdom, according to a 2025 fact sheet by the European Automobile Manufacturers' Association.

Over a fifth of EU vehicle exports went to the United States.

Germany alone exported some 450,000 vehicles to the United States in 2024, according to the VDA industry group. But that figure has since slipped.

Many of the worst-performing companies have outpaced market leaders in price gains in the secondary market over the past four months, as investors focus on short-term returns amid limited investment options.
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Apart from retailers, many institutional investors have not fixed any long-term investment strategy amid the liquidity crisis.

Ahead of the national election held on February 12, investors had been uncertain about the future market direction. After the election, investors' expectations regarding market stability faded as the US and Israel jointly struck Iran and waged war at the end of February.

As a result, the market outlook has become elusive, and investors remain fixated on speculative stocks in the hope of short-term gains.

This is the backdrop in which Dominage Steel Building Systems, despite a significantly negative P/E (price-to-earnings) ratio and one of its factories being shut, has continued its rally on the stock exchanges.

Dominage Steel registered a 131 per cent market price appreciation as of Thursday since January 1, while well-performing multinational company Linde BD experienced a 14.5 per cent decline during the period.

The board of Dominage Steel Building Systems last week disseminated price-sensitive information regarding the sale of their ownership stakes to Akij Resources and two individuals.

Some market operators said insiders, who were aware of the company's intention to sell ownership to the Akij conglomerate, might have played a role in the company's rally.

The rally of Dominage Steel does not reflect any fundamental strength.

Of the other non-performing companies that outperformed market leaders on the bourses, BBS Cables experienced a 30.3 per cent appreciation over the last four months.

The company distributed no dividends and reported a loss of Tk 856 million in FY25, increased from a loss of Tk 133 million in FY24. It has remained in the red in the last three quarters too.

The unjustified rally of BBS Cables, along with other non-performing companies, indicates that investors are hooked on short-term gains from speculative stocks.

Md. Ashequr Rahman, managing director of Midway Securities, said some groups had influenced the rallies of speculative stocks for short-term gains.

The financial performance of some of the companies that have seen a rally is better than that of other poor performers, but that is insignificant compared to blue-chip stocks that experienced correction.

"The absence of any new IPO is another reason why the secondary market has lost its buoyancy," Mr Rahman added.

The country's capital market has seen no new listings since March 2024.

The latest conflict between Iran and the US-Israel alliance disrupted fuel supply through the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

Local manufacturers said their profitability would be seriously affected due to the abrupt rise in production costs induced by fuel price hikes.

Apprehension over profit decline has been reflected in stock movements.

For example, the stock price of Unilever Consumer Care closed at Tk 2,163.6 each on April 6, which fell further to Tk 2,065.80 by Thursday.

Meanwhile, the stock price of ACI fell to Tk 193.80 each share on Thursday, which was Tk 211.6 on April 15.

The Bangladesh Bank (BB) has waived the requirement to maintain provisions against funds of banks and non-bank financial institutions stuck in five merging shariah-based lenders.

The decision was taken at a recent internal meeting of the central bank, officials familiar with the matter said, at a time when more than Tk 15,000 crore remain tied up in the troubled institutions.

As these funds have not been recovered for a prolonged period, the regulator has lifted the requirement to maintain provisions against them, they added.

The five merging banks are First Security Islami Bank, Global Islami Bank, Union Bank, Social Islami Bank, and Exim Bank. They were brought under the merger process by the interim government through the Bank Regulation Ordinance, 2025.

Around Tk 10,000 crore of the stuck funds belong to Islami Bank Bangladesh alone.

Banks are required to set aside 0.5-5 percent of operating profit against general category loans, rising to 20 percent for substandard loans, 50 percent for doubtful loans, and 100 percent for bad or loss category loans.

Initially, the BB’s bank supervision departments and the financial institutions and markets department had instructed banks to maintain provisions against funds stuck in the troubled banks.

The Bank Resolution Department (BRD) later clarified that such provisioning would not be required, as the funds fall under a specific resolution framework.

“The funds are not considered a total loss. Banks may receive shares after a certain period or recover the money with profit after five years,” a central bank official said, adding that the BRD has provided assurances in this regard.

Affected institutions are expected to either recover the money directly or receive equivalent value through long-term fixed deposits or shares, said the official.

The five banks were previously controlled by politically connected figures. During the Awami League-led government, Exim Bank was under Nazrul Islam Mazumder, former chairman of the Bangladesh Association of Banks. The other four were controlled by family members of Mohammed Saiful Alam, chairman of S Alam Group.

Allegations of widespread irregularities and fund embezzlement during that period led to severe liquidity crises, leaving the banks unable to repay depositors and institutional lenders.

As of September 2024, the total investment or loans of those five banks stood at Tk 1,92,787 crore, while total deposits stood at Tk 1,58,918 crore, BB data show.