Bangladesh's economy last week revolved around energy-related costs straining public finances, a halt in fertiliser production due to gas shortages, and fresh burdens on trade from rising container depot charges.

The week was also marked by a revenue collection shortfall heading into the fiscal year-end, and pushback from the garment industry against US allegations of forced labour and overcapacity.

The following is a recap of those major stories as covered by Star Business.

$2 billion out of pocket as energy costs surge, says finance minister (April 19)

Bangladesh has incurred nearly $2 billion in additional energy costs owing to global supply chain disruptions, Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury said while addressing an event in Washington. He called for urgent budget support to ease fiscal pressure and shore up weakened banks.

Gas shortage brings DAP fertiliser production to a halt (April 20)

Production at the state-owned DAP Fertilizer Company Limited in Chattogram ground to a halt after an acute ammonia shortage, itself a consequence of the prolonged closure of five urea factories, including CUFL and Kafco, disrupted by gas supply problems tied to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

ICDs raise charges, a day after fuel price hike (April 21)

Private inland container depots hiked handling charges by 8.5 percent, just one day after diesel prices climbed 15 percent. Exporters immediately protested the move, warning it would raise trade costs and further weaken Bangladesh's competitiveness in global markets.

Missed targets: NBR needs Tk 2.6 lakh crore by June to avoid shortfall (April 22)

The National Board of Revenue faces a Tk 2.6 lakh crore collection target in the final quarter of FY26 after falling nearly Tk 1 lakh crore short of its nine-month goal. Analysts pointed to slowing GDP and elevated energy costs as the chief obstacles to closing the gap.

No overcapacity, forced labour in apparel sector (April 23)

The BGMEA firmly rejected US allegations of forced labour and overcapacity in Bangladesh's garment sector. In a formal position paper, the association said that its exports support rather than undercut the US economy, and that the industry operates in full compliance with internationally recognised labour standards.

Oil climbed on Monday (27 April) as stalled US-Iran peace talks prolonged the disruption of Middle East energy exports, while renewed excitement about artificial intelligence spending drove up chip stocks ‌at the beginning of a week where war, central banks and tech earnings are in focus.

Benchmark Brent crude futures rose around 2% to touch a three-week high of $107.97 a barrel in Asia trade, a level that has stoked inflation worries and prompted traders to all but price out rate cuts in developed markets this year.

S&P 500 futures wobbled in the Asia session but tacked on small gains of around 0.2% after markets in Taiwan, Tokyo and Seoul followed Wall Street to notch record highs on a new wave of AI optimism.

Currency trading was broadly steady, with the euro at $1.1724 and the yen at 159.32 per dollar.

Bond ⁠markets were calm ahead of central bank meetings in Japan, the US, Britain, Europe, Canada and a smattering of emerging markets.

While a ceasefire has frozen most fighting in the war, starting with US-Israeli strikes on Iran two months ago, markets are focused on the shuttered Strait of Hormuz, where barely any ships carrying oil and gas have transited.

The average LNG price for June delivery into northeast Asia was $16.70 per million British thermal units last week, nearly 61% above pre-war levels.

Goldman Sachs analysts lifted year-end oil price forecasts sharply from $80 to $90 a barrel for Brent, and even that rests on normalisation of Gulf exports by the end of June.

"Non-linear price increases are likely if inventories drop to critically low levels, which we have not seen in the last few decades," they warned in a note.

US President Donald Trump cancelled a trip to Islamabad by US envoys for talks on the weekend, but investors were buoyed slightly by an Axios report saying Iran wants to make a deal ‌on opening ⁠the strait first and postpone nuclear talks until later.

Rates and hyperscalers earnings

Beyond oil derivatives and the even more stretched physical market where jet fuel fetches $185 a barrel in Singapore, equity investors have hoped for a breakthrough and tried to look past the oil shock to an AI trend that is seen as unstoppable.

"AI is something that people are very optimistic about and very much considered a winner," said Mike Seidenberg, senior portfolio manager for Allianz Technology Trust.

"It's the top of the portfolio."

Intel's forecast for second-quarter revenue above Wall Street ⁠expectations last week set off the latest round of buying that has pushed the total value of the chip-maker-heavy stock markets in Taiwan and South Korea above Germany's.

US tech earnings headline the week ahead, with 44% of the S&P 500 by market cap due to report and the focus on capex at Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta Platforms, which report ⁠on Wednesday. Apple reports on Thursday.

Major central banks are expected to stay on hold this week, though aggressive bets on future rate hikes in Britain and Europe could be tested if policymakers strike a cautious tone.

The Bank of Japan is the first off the rank and is expected to keep its short-term policy rate steady at ⁠0.75% on Tuesday.

The Federal Reserve is also expected to leave rates where they are at what is likely to be Jerome Powell's final meeting in the chair.

The European Central Bank and Bank of England are likewise expected to hold, but their tone and outlook could challenge market pricing for both banks to make two 25-basis-point hikes later in the year.

Dominage Steel Building Systems (DSBSL) has decided to sell 30 percent of its shares to a buyer group led by Akij Resources.

DSBSL board approved the transfer of 3.07 crore shares at a negotiated price through an off-market transaction at its meeting on April 25.

A sale agreement will be executed with the buyers -- Akij Resources, Sheikh Jasim Uddin, and Faria Hossain -- pending approval from the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC), according to a disclosure issued on the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) website yesterday.

Upon receiving BSEC clearance, a new board of directors will assume management and operations of DSBSL.

The existing board said the acquisition would help the company fully resume and optimise production, citing recent operational challenges.

It added that the synergy with Akij’s existing steel infrastructure would create long-term value for shareholders.

Akij Resources holds a significant presence in the steel and construction sectors through its subsidiaries. Officially established in April 2020, it builds on the heritage of the Akij Group, one of Bangladesh’s largest conglomerates.

DSBSL, established in 2007 as a private limited company, manufactures pre-engineered steel buildings.

The company operates two factories, at Fulbaria, Palash, Narsingdi and at Aukpara, Ashulia, Savar, with a combined monthly production capacity of 550 tonnes. It sources raw materials from manufacturers in Japan, China, and Taiwan.

As of March 31, 2026, sponsors and directors held 30.20 percent of shares, the public held 61.44 percent, and the rest were held by institutions and foreign investors.

The US central bank is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its policy meeting next week, as energy prices stay high and supply chains snarled due to war in the Middle East.

The Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting, starting Tuesday, could be chairman Jerome Powell’s last at the helm of the independent institution.

But it takes place against a tricky backdrop. Powell’s successor has faced a bumpy road to confirmation, while policymakers battle competing pressures as steeper fuel prices drive inflation and job market worries linger.

Fed officials are set to keep rates steady at a range between 3.50 percent and 3.75 percent, extending their pause since the start of the year.

“We still have a very high level of uncertainty on what’s happening in the Middle East,” KPMG senior economist Kenneth Kim told AFP.

Oil and gasoline prices remain elevated even if they have peaked, meaning “there’s certainly an energy shock that’s still impacting both consumers and businesses,” he said.

The Fed has a dual mandate of maintaining price stability and low unemployment.

It tends to keep interest rates high to curb inflation or lower them to spur growth, meaning that current conditions pull officials in different directions.

Navy Federal Credit Union Chief Economist Heather Long expects Powell to be “non-committal” on the path of rates, as the full impact from the war on Iran remains unknown.

The oil price hikes came after US-Israeli strikes targeting Iran from February 28 sparked Tehran’s retaliation in virtually closing the Strait of Hormuz -- a key waterway for energy transit.

CONTAINING INFLATION

Fed officials will likely focus more on containing inflation than the jobs market this meeting, with the war entering its ninth week.

The strait is also a key passage for fertilizers, and disruptions threaten to hit food production.

Already, US consumer inflation reached its highest level in nearly two years in March at 3.3 percent as energy costs rocketed.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who earlier backed lower rates to support employment, indicated this month that a prolonged conflict could make it hard for the central bank to cut rates this year.

If there were high inflation and a weak labor market, one would have to balance risks on both sides.

This “may mean maintaining the policy rate at the current target range if the risks to inflation outweigh those to the labor market,” he told an Alabama event.

KPMG’s Kim said solid hiring recently “gives the Fed some cushion” to temporarily focus more on prices.

Analysts will monitor if the Fed signals in its post-meeting statement that rate hikes are a possibility.

‘CRITICAL JUNCTURE’

The Fed is also taking its next steps under intense political scrutiny.

President Donald Trump has made no secret of his wish for lower interest rates, and regularly slammed Powell for not cutting them aggressively.

Beyond rhetoric, Trump has sought to oust Fed Governor Lisa Cook over claims of mortgage fraud. The Supreme Court is set to rule on whether he can fire her.

Meanwhile, Trump’s choice of new Fed chairman -- Kevin Warsh -- has faced a bumpy road to confirmation.

Republican senator Thom Tillis on the Senate Banking Committee vowed to block Fed appointments until a Justice Department probe into the Fed and Powell is resolved, setting up a potential impasse on the panel Warsh needs to clear.

But the Department of Justice said Friday it would drop the investigation linked to renovation costs overruns, potentially paving the way for Warsh’s ascendance.

Asked by journalists Saturday about the DOJ’s move, Trump said he still wants to look into the cost of the Federal Reserve building renovations, which he has claimed is too high.

“I tell you, I want to find out. I have an obligation to find out,” he said.

Warsh has repeatedly pledged to remain independent if confirmed.

“We’re at a critical juncture for the Fed,” EY-Parthenon chief economist Gregory Daco told AFP.

“It may be that under Warsh, we’re going to see less Fed transparency, less Fed communication than we had in the past,” he said, referring to Warsh’s confirmation hearing testimony.

Powell’s chairman term expires May 15, and he originally intended to stay on the Fed’s board of governors until the probe on him is completed.

All eyes are on his future plans at his scheduled press briefing Wednesday.

A quiet but fast-moving shift is underway on Bangladesh's roads as electric bikes and e-scooters emerge as a new growth industry, drawing over Tk2,000 crore in fresh investments and rapidly rising consumer demand.

What began as a niche market just a few years ago is now drawing significant investment from some of the country's largest conglomerates, including Nasir Group, Walton, PRAN-RFL Group, Runner Automobiles and Akij Group.

Driven by high fuel prices, rising urban living costs, traffic congestion and growing demand for cleaner transport, e-bikes are increasingly becoming a practical choice for commuters and a serious business opportunity for manufacturers.

Industry insiders estimate that at least five major companies made fresh investments in the sector over the past year alone, with ongoing commitments exceeding Tk2,000 crore.

At the same time, imports have surged sharply, highlighting how rapidly consumer demand is building. Just three years ago, monthly e-bike sales in Bangladesh were negligible, hovering around 100 units. Today, monthly sales have climbed into the thousands.

National Board of Revenue data show imports of e-bikes quadrupled within three years. Imports rose from 2,446 units in FY23 to 10,053 units in FY25. However, industry players say the actual market is significantly larger.

Subail bin Alam, chief operating officer of Nasir Syntax Motors Ltd, said NBR import data do not fully capture the market because a large volume of CKD kits entered Bangladesh in 2025 and many of those shipments are not reflected in the headline numbers.

"If those are added, the actual figure would be several times higher, with hundreds of e-bikes now being sold every day," he added.

He said the market received a major boost after the government reduced taxes on imported electric two-wheelers and parts in 2024. Currently, completely built-up unit imports face 98.87% tax, while CKD imports are taxed at around 37%, making local assembly increasingly attractive. For fuel-based motorcycles, the rates are 125% and 90%, respectively.

This shift has encouraged multiple firms to enter the market or expand operations.

Subail added that while fuel-based motorcycles cost around Tk3-4 per kilometre to operate, e-bikes cost only 30-40 paisa per kilometre, making them highly cost-effective for daily users.

"A battery costing Tk30,000-35,000 can last around three years. Over the same period, maintenance costs for petrol bikes are much higher. That is why consumers are turning to e-bikes as an alternative."

Major players scale up investments

Among the newest major entrants is Nasir Group, which has already invested Tk300 crore in the sector.

The company launched five models in November 2025, two with graphene batteries and three with lithium batteries, and has already built showrooms in 40 districts as part of an aggressive expansion strategy.

Subail said Nasir Syntax Motors initially began producing around 70 bikes per day, but has built a factory with the capacity to scale several times higher depending on demand.

"Our target is to invest Tk500 crore in EVs," he said.

PRAN-RFL Group has also entered the race with its RYDO e-scooter brand. The company has invested around Tk200 crore, with production beginning in January this year at its Habiganj facility.

The plant currently produces around 500 units per month, with plans to scale up to 3,000 units monthly at full capacity.

RN Paul, managing director of RFL Group, said current duty structures remain a challenge because they raise retail prices.

He said the company is engaging with policymakers and aims to bring e-scooters to market at around Tk50,000 by 2027, subject to stronger policy support.

Walton, one of Bangladesh's largest electronics manufacturers, has already established an early lead. The company launched the country's first locally produced e-bike under the Takyon brand in 2022 and currently commands around 18% market share.

Its manufacturing ecosystem already includes assembly lines, plastic moulding, PCB SMT production for digital systems and battery management systems, as well as battery manufacturing facilities.

Touhidur Rahman Rad, chief business officer of Walton Digi-Tech Industries Ltd, said Walton plans a dedicated 1,20,000-square-foot e-bike factory with an annual production capacity of 20,000 units.

The project is expected to generate more than 1,500 jobs with an investment running into several hundred crore taka.

He said e-bikes can reduce household transport fuel costs by as much as 80%, allowing families to recover the cost of ownership within a relatively short period.

Runner, Akij intensify competition

Runner Automobiles, a long-established player in Bangladesh's motorcycle market, has also accelerated its EV strategy.

After entering motorcycle manufacturing in 2012 with over Tk500 crore in phased investment, Runner began assembling e-scooters in 2025 in partnership with China's Yadea.

It had already launched e-bikes under the eWave brand several years earlier.

Priced between Tk70,000 and Tk100,000, Runner's e-bikes have gained a strong foothold.

Runner Automobiles Chairman Hafizur Rahman said the company plans to move from assembly to full manufacturing at its Bhaluka factory in Mymensingh.

Meanwhile, Akij Motors entered the e-bike segment between 2020 and 2022 and now assembles seven models at its Gazipur facility.

The company is focusing on the premium segment, with most models priced above Tk1,00,000.

An Akij official said customer preferences are shifting towards better performance, durability and higher-quality vehicles.

Why consumers are switching

A petrol-powered motorcycle typically costs Tk2-3 per kilometre in fuel. An e-bike costs only Tk0.30-0.40 per kilometre.

There is no engine oil, lower servicing costs, and monthly charging expenses can be as low as Tk300-500.

Nawshad Alam, an HR official at BRAC Bank, recently bought a Jiho A8 SE electric scooter for Tk2,20,000.

The lithium-powered scooter can travel 105–110 kilometres on a full charge.

"I bought an e-bike to avoid the hassle of fuel," he said.

"I no longer need to stand in petrol pump queues. I charge it at home. There is almost no fuel or servicing cost, and the company gave a three-year warranty."

He added that premium models are expensive, but entry-level bikes begin at around Tk50,000.

Md Mahmudur Rahman, general manager of RFL E-bike, said young professionals, especially women, are increasingly adopting e-bikes.

Their controlled speed makes them appear safer to many families, helping transform them from transport tools into lifestyle products.

He said countries such as India, China and Vietnam demonstrate the long-term potential of electric mobility.

Even families that already own cars or motorcycles are buying e-scooters for short urban trips because of their affordability and convenience, he added.

Md Matiur Rahman of Transsion Holdings said rising fuel prices and worsening congestion are steadily pushing consumers away from conventional motorcycles.

Import dependency

Despite growing local assembly, Bangladesh remains heavily reliant on imports.

Most units arrive fully built from China, while another 20-30% come in as SKD or CKD kits for local assembly. Foreign brands still dominate parts of the market.

Revoo, imported by Transsion Holdings since 2022, controls around 20% market share, offering high-performance models with ranges of up to 80 kilometres, swappable lithium batteries and NFC smart unlocking.

Chinese brands such as TailG, Salida, AIMA and Exploit also maintain strong positions.

Charging, registration still major barriers

Industry leaders say the sector's biggest growth constraints are inadequate charging infrastructure and cumbersome registration processes.

Bangladesh currently has only 112 public charging stations, concentrated in Dhaka and Chattogram, creating severe range anxiety outside major cities.

Subail of Nasir Syntax Motors said a rider who leaves home with a partial charge has few options if the battery runs out mid-journey.

"Fuel stations exist everywhere, but charging stations do not. The government still has no clear policy framework. This is a major barrier for EV adoption," he said.

Walton's Touhidur Rahman said demand is currently stronger in Khulna and Chattogram than in Dhaka in some cases, partly due to road-use patterns and infrastructure realities.

He said rapid expansion of fast-charging and battery-swapping stations would dramatically accelerate growth.

Md Moshiuzzan, director of corporate affairs at Nasir Syntax Motors, said e-bike registration costs range from Tk8,000 to Tk12,000.

He added that no dedicated BRTA desk exists for e-bike registration, forcing many buyers into lengthy procedures and leaving many vehicles unregistered.

Bangladesh's motorcycle market is now worth an estimated Tk7,000-8,000 crore, expanding at 16-17% annually.

Nearly 99% of motorcycles sold locally are now manufactured or assembled in Bangladesh, a transformation driven by supportive industrial policies.

If registration systems are simplified, charging infrastructure expanded and tax policies remain supportive, Bangladesh's e-bike market may soon become the next major success story in domestic manufacturing and urban mobility, stakeholders say.

BRAC Bank posted a record consolidated profit of Tk2,250.94 crore in 2025 – the highest in its history – marking a staggering 57% year-on-year growth over the previous year.

With this profit, BRAC Bank became the first local private sector lender to surpass Tk2,000 crore in profit.

Riding on the profit growth, the private sector lender also increased its dividend payout, recommending a 30% dividend comprising 15% cash and 15% stock for its shareholders.

The lender approved the annual financial statements and dividend for shareholders at a board of directors meeting held this evening (26 April).

While on the standalone basis, net profit of BRAC Bank rose to Tk1,581 crore, marking a 30% increase from Tk1,214 crore in the previous year.

In 2024, BRAC Bank made a consolidated profit of Tk1,431.84 crore, registering 73% growth over 2023, and it had paid a 25% dividend – 12.50% cash and 12.50% stock dividend to its shareholders.

It called the board of directors meeting on 11 June through the digital platform, and to identify its shareholders, the record date has been fixed on 17 May.

The net asset value per share on the consolidated basis increased to Tk51.56 crore, up from Tk39.38 in the previous year.

Commenting on 2025 financials, Tareq Refat Ullah Khan, managing director and CEO of BRAC Bank said, "As a values-driven institution, BRAC Bank upholds strong governance and sound fundamentals regardless of market conditions. This disciplined approach has enabled consistent financial performance over the years, with profitability emerging as a natural outcome."

He said, This performance in 2025 reflects sustained customer trust, disciplined governance, and prudent portfolio management, despite a challenging operating environment. Our continued investment in digital platforms and customer-centric innovation has further strengthened revenue growth and market reach.

He also said, robust underwriting standards and vigilant risk monitoring have preserved asset quality, keeping non-performing loans among the lowest in the industry. Consistent delivery over the years has reinforced BRAC Bank's standing as a benchmark for governance, compliance, and values-driven banking in Bangladesh.

"Notably, a significant share of the Bank's profit goes to BRAC, the world's largest NGO, which channels these funds into impactful social initiatives – thereby reinforcing the bank's contribution to socio-economic development of Bangladesh," he said.

There are serious lapses in policies aimed at expanding the tax net, resulting in persistently low revenue collection and a weak tax-GDP ratio over many years. Numerous ad hoc measures have been introduced, but outcomes have fallen short of expectations. A striking example is the limited and ineffective taxation of medium and small business houses, traders and business establishments, excluding large corporates. Together, these may be termed SMEs.

Lack of transparency and accountability, weak financial reporting, inefficient tax administration and widespread corruption are the principal causes. Over the past two decades, the trade sector in metropolitan cities, district towns, upazilas and growth centres has expanded significantly. Per capita income has also risen, visible in improved living standards, especially outside major cities. Yet these trends are not reflected in tax collections.

Most SMEs do not maintain proper accounts or ensure transparent reporting. Taxes are often based on fixed sums or manipulated accounts, and the amounts paid are negligible. In many cases, liabilities are determined through informal negotiations between taxpayers and officials, sometimes facilitated by unethical consultants.

The question, then, is how to break this cycle in both the short and long term. There appears to be little research or structured policy work on this issue. Although there are four categories of return forms in the current system, there is no prescribed form tailored specifically to SMEs.

An SME tax return form should be distinct, incorporating key information such as annual turnover; purchases from recognised supply chains, producers and distributors; rental expenses; salaries and wages; electricity bills; city corporation and municipal taxes; total floor area of business premises, including warehouses; bank statements; and VAT returns where applicable. The status and lifestyle of owners and their family members are also relevant. Assets and properties declared in individual tax returns should be cross-checked against SME disclosures. A proper analysis of such data would provide a clear picture of business scale and performance.

As an initial step, where annual income exceeds a threshold, say Tk 1 crore, accounts, except for limited companies, should be prepared with the support and attestation of qualified accounting experts, not necessarily chartered accountants. In line with global practice, the Financial Reporting Council (FRC) and the National Board of Revenue (NBR) could determine eligible qualifications, including part-qualified CAs, CMAs and ACCAs. This would improve the quality of financial reporting among SMEs and strengthen revenue collection.

Based on these enhanced returns, income tax should be assessed using progressive slabs. Where reliable accounts are absent, minimum tax may be determined using objective indicators such as electricity consumption, a proportion of salaries and wages, recorded purchases and other reasonable yardsticks. Introduced initially as a pilot, this system could be refined and expanded over time. Digitalisation of accounting records is no longer costly. Many SMEs already use software to record transactions, yet such data often remain undisclosed when tax liabilities are assessed.

Some may argue that revenue from SMEs would not significantly affect overall collections compared with large corporates. However, beyond immediate revenue gains, a broader cultural shift is needed. Public apathy towards tax compliance must change.

No society or economy can develop without transparency, accountability and proper disclosure of business results, alongside meaningful participation by financially solvent citizens. Curbing corruption, if not eliminating it, must also be a priority. These reforms are essential if Bangladesh is to confront mounting economic challenges at a time when the global economy faces prolonged uncertainty.

The Barapukuria coal mine yard in Dinajpur is now storing more than twice its designed capacity, with stocks continuing to rise and raising concerns over fire hazards, possible heap collapse and declining coal quality.

The situation has developed as the nearby Barapukuria Thermal Power Plant, operated by the Bangladesh Power Development Board (PDB) and the mine’s only coal buyer, has reduced consumption after two of its three units were shut down due to technical faults.

The yard, which has a storage capacity of 2.2 lakh tonnes, was holding about 5.7 lakh tonnes as of Tuesday. An additional 1 lakh tonnes is stored in the PDB’s own yard, which has a capacity of 60,000 tonnes.

The surplus is increasing daily, as the mine is producing around 3,000 tonnes of coal against a demand of only 700-750 tonnes.

Md Shah Alam, managing director of Barapukuria Coal Mining Company Limited, a subsidiary of state-owned Petrobangla, told The Daily Star over the phone that frequent fires are now occurring due to the excessive stockpile.

“A dedicated team is working around the clock to keep the fires under control,” he said.

POWER PLANT OUTPUT REDUCED

Abu Bakar Siddique, chief engineer of the Barapukuria Thermal Power Plant, said the facility has a total generation capacity of 525MW (megawatt), with Unit-1 and Unit-2 producing 125MW each, and Unit-3 producing 275MW.

He said only Unit-1 is currently in operation, supplying about 55-65MW to the national grid. Unit-3 has been shut since October 19, 2025, while Unit-2 has remained out of service since 2020 due to a mechanical fault.

“Unit-3, with a capacity of 275MW, is expected to resume operations by May this year. The process to overhaul Unit-2 is also underway,” he said.

Siddique added that when Units 1 and 3 operate together, the plant will require around 3,200 tonnes of coal per day.

“At that rate, about one lakh tonnes of coal will be used each month, and the current stockpile could be cleared in seven to eight months,” he said. “We are also working to expand the PDB’s coal yard capacity by an additional 50,000 tonnes.”

TRADING BLAMES

Officials from both the mine and the power plant have blamed each other for the growing coal stockpile.

Plant authorities say they requested a temporary suspension of coal production, while mine officials argue that output cannot be stopped due to technical limitations, safety risks and contractual obligations.

“We had asked the coal mine authorities to reduce coal extraction to help control spontaneous combustion and reduce other risks, but we received no response,” Siddique said.

Md Shah Alam rejected the suggestion of halting production. “There is no scope to stop mining once it begins, as it could increase risks, including a higher chance of spontaneous combustion,” he said.

“We are now extracting coal in two shifts instead of three,” he added.

He also said the crisis has worsened following a 2019 policy change that made the power plant the mine’s sole buyer, removing the option to sell surplus coal in the open market through tenders.

Monir Hossain Chowdhury, spokesperson for the Energy and Mineral Resources Division, said once coal is extracted, it becomes the property of the power plant.

“We do not have any mechanism to send that coal elsewhere,” he said.

He added, “It depends entirely on the plant authorities. Due to reduced power plant operations, the mine is facing difficulties as it lacks storage capacity. We are concerned about the issue, and the Power Division is working to resume production at the plant.”

Based on March global prices and the current exchange rate, the import cost of octane is Tk105.73 per litre. After the latest price hike – driven by supply constraints and rising global prices – it is being sold at Tk140 per litre at pumps.

This means consumers are paying Tk34.27 more than the import cost per litre. Of this, Tk27.57 goes to the government as import duty, VAT, development surcharge, transport costs, and margins for state-owned distributors.

When local transport costs and dealers' commissions are included, the total cost reaches Tk151.61 per litre – Tk11.61 higher than the retail price. The government counts this difference as a subsidy.

This creates a paradox: the government collects Tk27.57 per litre in taxes and charges, while also providing a subsidy of Tk11.61 per litre.

"This raises a valid question as to whether the government is truly subsidising octane," economist Selim Raihan, executive director of the South Asian Network on Economic Modeling (Sanem), told The Business Standard.

The same is true for petrol, which is usually priced Tk4 lower than octane.

However, the situation differs markedly for diesel, the most widely used fuel in public and goods transport, irrigation, inland water transport, and fishing.

Rising global prices have pushed the import cost of diesel to Tk148.06 per litre, which increases to Tk203.84 after adding duties, taxes, and operational and marketing costs. However, the government has fixed the retail price at Tk115 per litre – even after a Tk15 increase – effectively subsidising more than Tk88.84 per litre. This figure still includes over Tk55.78 (or 37%) in taxes and other costs.

Speaking to this newspaper, analysts and consumer rights groups say this "subsidy" exists only because of the fuel oil tax burden, as fuel oil remains among the major revenue sources for the government. They argue that if taxes were reduced or waived temporarily, and only distribution costs were added to the import price, octane could be sold at a much lower price than it is now, requiring no subsidy.

Major economies in the region, including India and Pakistan, slashed fuel oil taxes to lower price shocks on the people. India marginally increased the price of premium-grade oil, but kept the prices of the most-consumed diesel and petrol unchanged.

Though Pakistan raised oil prices, it exempted or slashed taxes for diesel and petrol. The country also introduced free bus services in cities, cash subsidies for bikers and farmers.

The EU is planning to cut electricity taxes and provide consumers with targeted and temporary support. The USA offers tax breaks to lessen the impact of gasoline price hikes and politicians there are calling for the federal tax to be exempted – 18.4 cents per gallon.

Price hikes in Bangladesh, effective from 19 April, were not backed by any such measures.

Maintaining existing VAT and tax rates while raising retail prices in line with international trends amounts to an "extortionist approach," where revenue generation appears to take precedence over public welfare, said Shamsul Alam, energy adviser at the Consumers Association of Bangladesh (Cab).

'No hike' means Tk2,764cr in monthly subsidy

If the government had followed the automatic pricing formula to set fuel prices in April, following the rise in international market rates after the Iran war, the price of diesel would have been Tk155.46 per litre, octane Tk148.93, and petrol Tk144.93.

Following the conditions of a loan taken from the International Monetary Fund in 2023, the government began adjusting prices monthly through an automatic system from the following year. However, the government did not increase fuel prices on 31 March.

Under the method, the current month's price is determined by the average "Platts-based" market price from the 21st of the month before last to the 20th of the following month. This formula is used to set the prices for diesel and octane, while the price of petrol is always fixed at Tk4 less than that of octane.

According to a briefing by the energy ministry prepared ahead of the latest price hike on 18 April, the government had been providing subsidies of nearly Tk45 per litre for diesel and Tk29 per litre for octane prior to the adjustment.

Energy Division estimates suggest that following the rise in international market prices after the Iran war, the government would have had to provide Tk2,764 crore in subsidies every month based on average demand if domestic prices remained unchanged. Of this amount, Tk2,452 crore would have been allocated to diesel and Tk145 crore to octane, with the remainder subsidising petrol and kerosene.

However, as a result of the government's decision to increase fuel prices on 18 April, the monthly subsidy burden will be reduced by approximately Tk800 crore. This means that even after the price hike, the government will still provide nearly Tk2,000 crore in fuel subsidies each month.

Despite the subsidy for octane being significantly lower than the vast amount spent on diesel, the Energy Division justified the steeper price increase for octane as a means of ensuring social and economic balance.

The ministry noted that diesel is directly linked to agricultural activities, the transport sector, freight movement, manufacturing, and the livelihoods of the general public. In contrast, octane consumption is relatively limited and primarily concentrated among higher-income groups.

Therefore, when adjusting prices, the Energy Division considered it a logical and policy-acceptable approach to place a comparatively lower burden on diesel while implementing a higher adjustment for octane, given the potential impact on public life and overall economic activity.

There are options

In the wake of the Iran war and the subsequent rise in fuel prices, several countries across Europe and Asia have attempted to keep prices manageable by reducing fuel duties. Pakistan, a fellow South Asian nation, has also slashed taxes on fuel. However, as Bangladesh has opted not to follow suit, consumers are forced to purchase fuel at much higher prices.

Selim Raihan said that the immediate hike in transport fares and commodity prices following the adjustment of fuel prices has had a direct impact on the general public.

He continued, "A portion of the revenue from fuel sales is transferred by the Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation (BPC) into their development fund, money essentially collected from the consumers. Temporarily suspending these transfers could have mitigated some of the pressure from the price hike.

"Similarly, while the commission rate for petrol pump owners remains unchanged, their total commission has increased significantly due to the higher sales value; a cap or adjustment could have been introduced here. Furthermore, a temporary waiver in the tax structure, similar to measures taken by neighbouring countries, could have been considered.

"In my view, by considering these three steps together – reducing taxes, pausing transfers to the BPC development fund, and implementing effective controls on commissions – the government could have achieved a more tolerable price adjustment.

"While this might have placed some pressure on revenue management, it would have lessened the direct impact on ordinary citizens. In the current situation, a transparent and balanced pricing policy is essential, prioritising consumer interests while moving towards long-term sustainable solutions."

Shamsul Alam, Cab's energy adviser, said reducing VAT and taxes on fuel is an accepted global practice to stabilise markets, cushion the impact of price spirals, and provide relief to consumers.

"Despite rising global oil price, our actual import costs remain significantly lower than what is being presented by the government," he pointed out.

At a time when the government is struggling to ensure adequate fuel supply to meet demand, such pricing policies effectively deprive citizens of their right to fair pricing, he believed.

Treating the fuel sector primarily as a profit-making entity reflects a disregard for the hardships faced by consumers, Shamsul said.

Bangladesh is not unique to global shocks, but it lags behind regional countries in managing the crisis judiciously, analysts say.

Cab Vice-President SM Nazer Hossain said the government, instead of raising fuel prices amid consumers' hardship, could have temporarily exempted duties.

"Though Bangladesh's recent fuel price change is a response to global pressures, the policy choices have raised some valid concerns," said Fahmida Khatun, executive director, Centre for Policy Dialogue.

The economist referred to the immediate effects of oil price hikes translated into increased transportation costs, hitting low- and middle-income households hardest.

Instead, she said, the government could have taken some practical steps to reduce the impact of rising fuel prices. "For example, the government could have temporarily reduced fuel taxes, restrained dealer commissions for now, and avoided tapping into the Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation development fund unless absolutely essential."

While these actions would not eliminate the price hike completely, they could have relieved the burden on ordinary people, Fahmida added.

Understandably, she said, the government's limited fiscal capacity means it cannot afford large subsidies for long. "But the adjustment could have been managed more carefully, with the burden shared more fairly across stakeholders, which would also improve public confidence."

There should be a balanced approach in light of high inflation and the hardships faced by common people, Fahmida said, suggesting that targeted support for the poor should be provided through fiscal adjustments and improved energy-sector efficiency.

How countries are responding to oil shocks

Regional economies such as India and Pakistan opted to lower fuel taxes to keep pressure on people lower. Excepting marginal increase in premium-grade fuel – Rs2 per litre, India remains among a few countries like Madagascar that have not hiked fuel prices since the Middle East war began. Pump prices of petrol and diesel in India remain at levels seen four years ago.

Rather, in March, ahead of elections in some states, India's finance ministry reduced the excise duty on petrol from Rs13 to Rs3 per litre. Similarly, the duty on diesel was slashed from Rs10 to zero.

It is unofficially estimated that this decision could result in an annual revenue loss of approximately Rs1.55 trillion.

Indian Oil Minister Hardeep Singh Puri wrote on X that oil companies were facing losses of around Rs24 per litre on petrol and Rs30 on diesel due to high prices in the international market. To mitigate those losses, the government has provided a significant waiver in revenue income, he said.

Reducing the duty at current prices will help decrease the annual losses of oil marketing companies by 30% to 40%, Puri said.

On the other hand, to limit exports and support the exporting companies, which include the private firms, the Indian finance ministry earlier this month increased the tax on diesel exports to Rs55.5 per ⁠litre from Rs21.5 per litre.

Though the world's third-largest fuel oil importer, India also exports refined oil to a number of countries, including Bangladesh. The export tax hike will affect Bangladesh's diesel import from India through the pipeline.

Pakistan raised domestic fuel oil prices much earlier than Bangladesh, but drastically slashed the petroleum levy to zero for diesel. The tax cut brought down the petrol price by Rs80 per litre.

Apart from adjusting fuel prices, Pakistan introduced free bus services in major cities and targeted subsidies for bikers, farmers and transport operators to cushion the public from the 55% hike in oil prices.

Registered motorcyclists in Sindh will get Rs2,000 each a month – the equivalent of a Rs100 subsidy per litre for 20 litres of fuel.

Farmers will receive Rs1,500 per acre to cover diesel costs, while heavy transport operators will receive fixed subsidies on the condition that bus and truck fares are not increased.

Registered bus and truck owners in Punjab will receive up to Rs1,00,000 in subsidies to prevent them from passing the increased fuel costs on to passengers and consumers.

Bangladesh will not be able to realise its ambition of becoming a trillion-dollar economy by 2034 unless it revives investment, foreign investors and development partners said yesterday.

Without a turnaround in the investment climate, the country also risks falling short on other goals, such as sustained economic growth and job creation, said Jean Pesme, division director of the World Bank for Bangladesh and Bhutan.

At a meeting of the Foreign Investors’ Chamber of Commerce and Industry (FICCI) in Dhaka, he said attracting investment requires coordinated reforms in revenue policy, the financial sector and the wider business environment.

He said implementing only one reform in isolation would deliver limited results.

Foreign direct investment stood at just $1.6 billion in the fiscal year 2024-25, or around 0.33 percent of GDP, well below regional peers. Private investment was projected at 22 percent of GDP in FY25, the lowest level in 11 years, according to official data.

Pesme said global experience shows that tax incentives alone cannot offset a weak investment climate.

“Even where governments reduce the marginal effective tax rate and see an increase in foreign direct investment (FDI), the inflow is eight times higher when strong institutions, macroeconomic stability and rule of law are already in place,” he added.

He commented that Bangladesh’s revenue challenge lies less in tax rates and more in weak administration, governance shortcomings and extensive tax expenditures, which are almost as large as total collections.

According to the World Bank’s regional division director, the country depends heavily on tax holidays and sector-specific exemptions, especially for the ready-made garment sector. This creates distortions, opens the door to rent-seeking and increases resistance to reform, as changes inevitably produce winners and losers.

He highlighted the need to work on the investment climate and fiscal reform simultaneously so that they combine and reinforce each other.

“And when you look at the experience globally, the countries that really try to attract FDI through incentives are the ones that already have strong macro stability, rule of law, efficient administration and strong infrastructure.”

He also emphasised broadening the tax base and introducing greater uniformity by eliminating rent-seeking behaviour, reducing distortions, improving compliance and limiting incentives to game the system.

Predictability and credibility, he said, are essential.

“Improving tax administration can really bring results. We think revenue collection, as well as managing tax expenditure and services, is very important as it is about the quality of public spending.”

The results are not coming immediately, but the earlier you start, signal where you want to go, and then implement, in a systematic way, the better, he added.

Chandan Sapkota, country economist at the Asian Development Bank (ADB) resident mission in Bangladesh, said investors consistently raise concerns about taxes, especially the role of the National Board of Revenue (NBR).

“When we meet investors, everybody talks about taxes because their investment decisions are being impacted by NBR,” said Sapkota.

He said NBR often overrides investment promotion agencies. For instance, they introduce an investment facilitation programme, but in the middle of the year, NBR can issue a regulation that effectively nullifies it.

“Basically, there is no predictability of what is going to happen. So, I can see a reason why everybody says NBR,” said Sapkota.

Drawing on his experience in five countries, he said, “I think no other country has this kind of system, where you have agency that supersedes pretty much everything.”

To raise tax collection, he emphasised digitisation and stronger compliance.

The ADB economist said, “Even if you increase taxes, if the compliance regime is not tackled, your tax will not actually increase that much, but then people who are already paying taxes will be burdened more.”

He said the tax administration system must make it very difficult to avoid paying taxes. For example, it’s impossible to evade taxes in India, because everybody has a Aadhaar Card without which none can do anything.

In Bangladesh, he said, the national ID card should be linked with TIN and bank accounts to close that loop. He also suggested reducing multiple VAT rates to two or three to reduce leakages.

“The incentive mechanism, when they rationalise the taxes, should be designed in such a way that this is growth enhancing, productivity enhancing, rather than helping some sort of zombie firms to sustain operation for the sake of employment,” said Sapkota.

Fahmida Khatun, executive director of local think tank Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), said tax exemptions in Bangladesh continue indefinitely despite limited fiscal space. “If you really want to incentivize, there should be a sunset clause. But, once an exemption is in place, that goes forever,” she said.

AK Khan, chairperson of Business Initiative Leading Development (BUILD), said local investors face similar frustrations.

As a local investor, we also feel that there are a lot of constraints when we do or think of investments, which shows a huge gap between policy and practice, said Khan.

He pointed to weak coordination among ministries. NBR, the commerce ministry and other ministries often adopt separate policies on the same subject, leading to conflict and uncertainty.

And there is a serious conflict in policies that frustrate investors. He suggested running institutional reform, institutional coordination, and policy consistent and predictable.

M Masrur Reaz, chairman and chief executive of Policy Exchange Bangladesh, presented a paper at the event. He said higher corporate taxes raise the effective cost of investment and cited the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) data showing that FDI falls 3.7 percent for every 1 percent rise in the tax rate.

Bangladesh ranks 105th out of 141 countries in the Global Competitiveness Index due to weak business dynamism, poor product market conditions, low skills performance and infrastructure deficits, he said.

To build an investment-enabling fiscal framework, Reaz called for tax reform, greater efficiency in the annual development programme, institutional reform, improved budget credibility and fiscal consolidation.

Rupali Huque Chowdhury, president of FICCI, and Shams Zaman, a FICCI director, also spoke at the event.

Garment exporters yesterday urged the government to cut the source tax from 1 percent to between 0.5 and 0.65 percent, citing ongoing difficulties caused by domestic challenges and external pressures.

They also proposed keeping the reduced rate in place for the next five years.

In addition, they called for exemption from the 10 percent income tax on export incentive receipts, saying that export incentives have already been reduced as part of preparations for Bangladesh’s graduation from the least developed countries (LDC) group.

The Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA) and the Bangladesh Knitwear Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BKMEA) made these proposals in their budget recommendations for fiscal year 2026-27 (FY27), which were submitted to the National Board of Revenue (NBR) yesterday.

Both associations proposed setting the corporate tax rate for subcontracting factories at 12 percent instead of the current 25 to 30 percent, arguing that it should be aligned with existing policies where green factories pay 10 percent and non-green factories pay 12 percent.

They also said subcontracting factories, which place work orders with other factories, currently pay a 5 percent source tax on contract payments and demanded that it be reduced to 1 percent in the upcoming budget.

In addition, they proposed fixing the bond licence fee at Tk10,000 for three years, along with relaxed rules for sub-contracting and bond licence locking.

They also recommended exempting VAT and import duties on the import of man-made fibre and non-cotton yarn, saying this is necessary to expand production using man-made fibres and increase global market share.

Globally, around 75 percent of garments are made from man-made fibres, while in Bangladesh, over 70 percent of exports are cotton-based and only around 30 percent come from man-made fibres, meaning the country is missing significant opportunities.

They added that while cotton imports are already duty-free, similar tariff-free access should be extended to man-made fibre and yarn to stay competitive.

RMG UNDER PRESSURE AS EXPORTS FALL, COSTS RISE

The BGMEA, in its proposal, said the garment sector is facing an unprecedented set of challenges both at home and abroad, including global recession, geopolitical instability and tariff wars that have slowed export growth.

Internal issues such as rising costs of doing business, weak ease of doing business, and structural weaknesses are also affecting competitiveness.

Recent export data shows garment exports fell by 3.73 percent in July-February of FY26 compared to the same period of the previous fiscal year, with earnings continuously declining since August 2025.

As a result, factories are operating below full capacity, increasing fixed costs and overall production expenses.

New work orders have also slowed, with Bangladesh Bank data showing that back-to-back letters of credit (LC) openings for raw material imports fell by 6.79 percent in dollar terms during July-January of FY26.

Lower export orders, combined with reciprocal US tariffs and higher Chinese exports to Europe at competitive prices, have reduced export prices, with the average unit price of garments falling by 1.76 percent in July-February of FY26.

In the first seven months of FY26, imports of capital machinery dropped by 37.87 percent in the textile sector and 12.44 percent in the garment sector, continuing a negative trend from the previous fiscal year.

This reflects declining capacity and a weak investment climate, raising concerns about the sector’s future.

The data shows that the country’s main export-earning sector, the RMG industry, is going through a critical period, with around 400 garment factories closing over the past three years while many others remain financially weak.

At present, lending interest rates have risen to 12 to 15 percent, while energy costs have increased sharply amid ongoing shortages. Gas prices rose by 286 percent between 2017 and 2023, and electricity tariffs increased by 33 percent over the past five years.

Prime Bank PLC has signed a $30 million term-loan agreement with the Opec Fund for International Development (Opec Fund), an international development finance institution.

The strategic collaboration is expected to significantly enhance Prime Bank’s capacity to support critical trade finance requirements across the country’s small and medium enterprise (SME), agriculture, and corporate sectors.

Faisal Rahman, chief executive officer (current charge) of the bank, and Abdulhamid Alkhalifa, president of the Opec Fund, signed the agreement in Dhaka recently, according to a press release.

Commenting on the partnership, Alkhalifa said, “MSMEs and agribusinesses play a vital role in jobs, food security, and economic resilience in Bangladesh, yet many still struggle to access trade finance.”

“Our partnership with Prime Bank will help unlock new opportunities, diversify exports, and strengthen the country’s private sector. This loan builds on our long-standing collaboration and reflects our commitment to inclusive, sustainable growth,” he added.

Rahman said, “We are delighted to enter into this strategic partnership with the Opec Fund. The three-year expandable term-loan facility will meaningfully enhance our capacity to support the trade financing needs of our valued clients.”

“This collaboration comes at a critical time when businesses are navigating uncertainties in the global economic landscape,” he added.

The Opec Fund’s support reinforces our relationship and reflects its strong confidence in Prime Bank’s governance, operational resilience, and future ambitions in supporting the national economy, the release added.

The facility, structured as a term-loan, will be provided to Prime Bank’s offshore banking unit by the Opec Fund.

It carries an initial tenor of one year, with a provision for extension up to three years.

This financing is expected to strengthen Prime Bank’s trade finance portfolio, providing much-needed stability and support to Bangladeshi businesses navigating complex global economic headwinds.

US consumer sentiment fell to a record ​low in April as households shrugged off a ceasefire in the war with Iran, remaining focused on the inflation ‌fallout from the conflict.

The University of Michigan's Surveys of Consumers said its Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to a final reading of 49.8 this month, an all-time low. The reading was a slight improvement, however, from the 47.6 reported earlier in the month.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index at 48.0. It was at 53.3 ​in March. The deterioration in sentiment was across political party affiliation, and among consumers with investments in the stock market.

The Iran war ​has disrupted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, boosting the price of oil, and ultimately the cost of gasoline ⁠and diesel. Prices for other commodities, including fertilizers, petrochemicals and aluminum, which will soon impact consumers, have also surged.

Tehran effectively closed the strait ​after the start of the war on February 28. President Donald Trump this week indefinitely extended the ceasefire with Iran, though a US Navy blockade ​of Iranian ports remained in effect.

"The Iran conflict appears to influence consumer views primarily through shocks to gasoline and potentially other prices," said Joanne Hsu, the director of the Surveys of Consumers. "In contrast, military and diplomatic developments that do not lift supply constraints or lower energy prices are unlikely to buoy consumers."

GASOLINE AND DIESEL ​PRICES INCREASE

The national average retail gasoline price has hovered above $4 a gallon this month, with diesel well above $5 a gallon, data from the US ​Energy Information Administration showed.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll on Friday showed a clear majority of Americans blamed Trump for surging gasoline prices, which are weighing on his Republican Party ahead ‌of November's ⁠congressional midterm elections.

Expensive diesel is likely to raise prices of goods transported by road. Economists said while the correlation between consumer sentiment and spending was weak, they expected households, especially lower-income groups, to scale back on consumption.

"We expect the hit to real disposable income growth from higher gas prices will slow consumption growth," said Grace Zwemmer, a US economist at Oxford Economics. "The impact will be mostly felt by low- and middle-income households, ​since a larger share of their ​overall spending goes toward gasoline."

The ⁠survey's measure of consumer expectations for inflation over the next year jumped to 4.7 percent this month from 3.8 percent in March. April's reading exceeded levels that prevailed in 2024 and remained well above the 2.3 percent-3.0 percent range seen ​in the two years before the COVID-19 pandemic.

Consumers' expectations for inflation over the next five years climbed ​to 3.5 percent from 3.2 percent ⁠last month.

Higher inflation expectations added to a survey from S&P Global on Thursday showing a measure of prices charged by businesses for their goods and services jumped in April to the highest level in nearly four years in strengthening financial market expectations that the Federal Reserve would probably not cut ⁠interest rates ​this year.

"More pain will come as higher transportation costs are passed along for food, ​appliances, toys and every other item that travels on a ship, car or plane," said Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union. "Sentiment won't improve until the Strait of ​Hormuz is open and there is a permanent end to the conflict."

Massive deregulation across major financial sectors of the "over-regulated" country is expected to be reflected in the coming national budget being crafted by the newly elected government.

Finance and Planning Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury dropped a broad hint at such changes on Saturday during an exchange- of- views meeting with editors of print, electronic and online media on the upcoming budget."Bangladesh is an overregulated country and needs deregulation," he says.Bangladesh economic statistics

The meeting, held at the Finance Division, was attended by Finance Secretary Dr Khairuzzaman Mozumder, Bangladesh Bank Governor Md Mostaqur Rahman and Financial Institutions Division (FID) Secretary Nazma Mobarek, among others.

The finance minister says the government is also considering the securitisation of public-infrastructure assets to mobilise funds for new projects.

"The Jamuna Bridge now carries no liabilities. It can be securitised, and the proceeds can be used for other development projects," he explains the new government's financial ideas.

On the size of the budget, the economic pointsman of the government headed by BNP chief Tarique Rahman says a larger outlay is necessary to support economic growth and attract investment.

Addressing demographic challenges, the finance minister stresses the need for increased investment in health and education to harness the country's demographic dividend.

He mentions that out-of-pocket healthcare costs remain high in the country, and for this reason, the government aims to improve the healthcare system.

"Once people become technically skilled, they will find employment both at home and abroad," he says while arguing increased allocation for the education.

The minister reiterates that the government is opposed to printing money. On the capital market, Mr. Chowdhury says the government has significant plans to strengthen the sector.Economic analysis reports

"You will see changes and development in the capital market soon," he says, adding that well-reputed and structured companies have been reluctant to float shares on the market as they believe that this is a "casino".

He hopes deregulation and greater participation by institutional investors could help improve market conditions.

On the recovery of laundered funds, Bangladesh Bank Governor Mr. Rahman says efforts are under way to retrieve such assets.

"We want to ensure that these funds cannot be consumed by plunderers," he tells the press in a strongly worded resolve of the regulator.

He warns that news of money printing could negatively affect the country's credit ratings, increasing borrowing costs for both the government and the private sector.

The new governor rules that fluctuations in government accounts held with the central bank are normal.

FID Secretary Ms. Mobarek says a taskforce has been formed to recover siphoned-off money. "The process is complex."

National Board of Revenue (NBR) Chairman Md Abdur Rahman Khan tells the meet efforts would be intensified to boost tax mobilisation, particularly through value-added tax (VAT).World news updates

He says although Bangladesh has over 12.8 million Taxpayer Identification Numbers (TINs), only about 5.0 million returns are filed.

"We will issue notices to those who have not submitted their tax returns."

He also says that corporate tax rates for both listed and non-listed companies have been reduced over the years from as high as 50 per cent.

Speaking at the programme, The Financial Express Editor, Shamsul Huq Zahid, points out that Bangladesh is facing weak revenue mobilisation, which is further strained by the Middle East crisis.

"In this context, the plan to raise the budget size to around Tk 9.0 trillion will be challenging," he says, cautioning that increased bank borrowing and 'high-powered money' could fuel inflation.

Channel I Head of News Mr. Shykh Seraj stresses the need for greater investment in agricultural research to ensure food security.

Speaking at another event, Finance Minister Amir Khosru has said the government plans to step up spending on health and education to fully harness the country's demographic dividend. A large share of the increase will go for vocational education to build skilled manpower, boost employment and raise remittance inflows.Bangladesh economic statistics

He says the government also aims to tap the "longevity dividend," noting that older citizens can continue contributing to productivity. However, higher allocations may face challenges linked to the inheritance economy.

The minister made the remarks at the pre-budget discussion organised by the Ministry of Finance on the day, attended by members of the Economic Reporters Forum (ERF) and journalists covering the ministry.

He says the economy must recover from past damage caused by money printing and heavy borrowing from local banks. "Such policies," he warns, "drive up interest rates and crowd out private investment, undermining sustainable growth."

The current government, he adds, is committed to avoiding inflationary financing through high-powered money and to easing pressure on the private sector-principles that guide its economic policy.

He alleges that past "patronage politics" concentrated economic power in a few hands, pushing the economy towards oligarchic control. The government is now prioritising the "democratisation of the economy" to reverse this trend.Financial news subscription

To ensure inclusive growth, he says, steps are being taken to empower women directly through the "family card" programme. As primary managers of household finances, women's access to funds can improve both savings and investment outcomes.

The minister stresses expanding primary healthcare to reduce out-of-pocket expenses, which erode living standards. Better access to basic care, he says, effectively raises real incomes.

He describes SMEs and startups as the backbone of the economy, noting that SMEs remain the largest source of employment. Efforts are also underway to integrate rural cottage industries, artisans and the creative economy into the mainstream.

Initiatives to upgrade product design, branding and marketing for rural artisans are being rolled out to help them reach global markets -- boosting both jobs and exports.

He adds that sectors such as sports, culture, theatre, film and music are gaining policy attention as emerging contributors to GDP.

On current challenges, he says the private sector is under strain from weak banking discipline, currency depreciation and persistent inflation, with many industries underperforming.

Raising the tax-to-GDP ratio remains "very difficult" under current conditions, he notes, as stronger business activity is essential for higher revenue collection, though efforts are ongoing.Economic analysis reports

He has also highlighted energy security, with plans to cut import dependence by exploring domestic resources and expanding renewable-energy use.

On market management, he says prices cannot be controlled through enforcement alone. Markets should function based on demand and supply, supported by stronger supply chains and lower business costs.

He concludes that deregulation will be key to attracting investment, as excessive barriers continue to deter investors.

Budget-support funding from foreign financiers seems drying up as only US$750 million has so far been confirmed although the financial year nears end with the economy facing unanticipated shocks amid global crises. Economic analysis reports

The country faces severe fund shortages caused due to heightened subsidy pressure amid the ongoing Mideast mayhem.

Finance Ministry officials say at least two major development partners have deferred talks on providing budget-support credit under regular arrangement and so they are now pursuing the financiers for lending the money in emergency balance-of-payments support.

According to them, the only development partner having confirmed budget support worth $750 million on completion of negotiations is the Asian Development Bank (ADB). The proposal will now be placed in board meeting early May, and if passed, the loan agreement will be signed when ADB President Masato Kanda visits Dhaka late next month.

Confronting such a situation at the very outset, the new government is also trying to secure an additional $250 million from the ADB to finance the additional spending incurred due to the fallouts from war and conflicts in the Middle East that force buying fuel oils and gas at excessive prices.

Sources have confirmed that the World Bank has rejected a government proposal for $250 million in budget-support credit under regular arrangement. Now the finance officials are pursing the World Bank to provide some $500 million under emergency support to meet the deficit being created under war's domino effect.

Also, the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) has deferred a planned budget-support programme until next fiscal year, "leaving nothing for this fiscal year", sources say.

A JICA team on April 29th is scheduled to meet with finance ministry officials to discuss financial assistances. Sources says the finance ministry officials may request the agency team to provide some $500 to $700 million as emergency assistance from the $10-billion fund Japan has created to help its Asian neighbours whose economy is reeling from severe crisis caused by the Iran war.

Sources say the government is also in talks with the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) for $700 million worth of budget support. However, the confirmation of AIIB financing will depend on consent from the co-financer.

The finance officials are not sure until now whether the AIIB credit will be finally available or not within this fiscal year that expires in little over two months.

Finance and Planning Minister Amir Khasru Mahmud Chowdhury recently visited Washington, DC, to attend the Spring Meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank Group.

The IMF has yet to give confirmation as to whether two due tranches of an ongoing credit programme, amounting to $1.3 billion, will be released for Bangladesh within this fiscal year, 2025-26.Bangladesh economic statistics

As such, the finance minister, in meetings with top officials of the IMF and the World Bank in Washington, requested emergency assistance worth $1.0 billion each from them to offset the energy shocks of an unprecedented scale amid the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian ports.

"All the development partners of Bangladesh are very positive to support us at this crisis moment," the minister told reporters after return from the United States. However, he wouldn't confirm how much assistance was secured so far.

"We are discussing with them emergency assistance," he says. In fiscal year 2024-25, Bangladesh had received around $3.0 billion as budget support from the development partners.

Dr. Zahid Hussain, a former lead economist at the World Bank's Dhaka office, told The Financial Express that getting budget-support credit from development partners in many aspects depends on government's "comfort position" with the IMF, which remains absent for a long.

"We need to cut budgetary spending as much as possible to face the crisis," he says, adding that containing spending will help lower import and thus the requirement of foreign currency will lessen.

He suggests maintaining exchange-rate flexibility and ensuring that no gap remains between domestic and international energy prices.

A US naval blockade of Iranian ports is likely to squeeze Iran’s oil output in the coming weeks but claims it will throw the Islamic republic into economic free fall remain premature, analysts say.

After weeks of bombing and counter-strikes, focus has shifted to the standoff in the Strait of Hormuz, which ordinarily carries around a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas.

In response to Iran’s blockade of the strait since the start of the Middle East war, the US imposed a counter-blockade of the Islamic republic’s ports, a push to force its leaders into a compromise in peace talks.

That bid, however, looks set to fail, at least in the short term.

“If the blockade lasts for more than two or three months, it can cause more damage” to Iran, economic analyst and professor at Shahid Beheshti University in Tehran Saeed Laylaz told AFP.

“If Iran suffers any damage, the damage to the countries in the southern Persian Gulf will definitely be greater,” he added.

There’s a limit on how long Iran can bide its time, however.

Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, chief analyst at Global Risk Management said Iran “was expected to run out of storage capacity within approximately one month, but it may already be forced to shut in part of its oil production within a couple of weeks”.

‘COLLAPSING FINANCIALLY?’

Trump said Tuesday that Iran was “collapsing financially” under the blockade imposed by the US Navy on April 12, claiming that the country was “starving for cash”.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the blockade meant storage at Iran’s Kharg Island, the main export terminal through which most of the country’s crude is shipped, “will be full and the fragile Iranian oil wells will be shut in”.

Jamie Ingram, managing editor of Middle East Economic Survey (MEES), told AFP it was likely the timeline for Iran to hit its oil storage limits would be measured in “weeks rather than days”.

He added it was likely that “Iran will slightly reduce production before getting to the stage where storage constraints start to bite”.

According to analysis by oil expert Homayoun Falakshahi shared by energy intelligence firm Kpler, Iran’s crude production has already slowed since the start of the war.

Output fell by around 200,000 barrels per day in March to 3.68 million bpd and is expected to drop a further 420,000 bpd in April to about 3.43 million bpd, reflecting “the broader impact of export disruptions and refining constraints linked to the ongoing conflict,” Falakshahi said.

But Laylaz in Tehran said beyond the psychological effect of the blockade, the “real material effect has been small so far”.

Ingram said Kharg Island “shouldn’t be a particular bottleneck,” for Iran.

“This is the final storage facility used before oil is exported and Iran can divert crude oil to other facilities rather than straight to Kharg,” he said.

‘MUTUALLY ASSURED DISRUPTION’

The MEES expert also said Iran’s dependency on oil exports via Hormuz had “deepened due to the damage caused by US and Israeli strikes to other sections of the Iranian economy”.

“But Iran has also proven its ability to withstand huge oil-revenue declines during previous rounds of sanctions. I would not underestimate the regime’s resilience in this regard,” he added.

As the initial two-week truce between Iran and the US was set to expire Trump had said Tuesday he would maintain the ceasefire to allow more time for peace talks.

Iran said it welcomed the efforts by mediator Pakistan but made no other comment on Trump’s announcement, while vowing not to reopen Hormuz so long as the US blockade remains in place.

“It will take a long time before such economic pain forces Iran to compromise,” Ingram said, explaining it is “more likely economic disruption... pushes China into exerting more pressure on Iran to negotiate”.

Ali Vaez, Iran project director at the International Crisis Group, said “Iran’s economy was battered before the war, is contending with added strains caused during it, and now faces the combination of sanctions, seizures and potential strikes”.

“Iran’s leadership has previously shown a high threshold for pain even if the pressure on ordinary Iranians increases. It also likely calculates that its own efforts to subdue traffic through Hormuz act as a sort of mutually assured disruption,” he added.

Demand for rooftop solar systems across Europe has surged since the start of the Iran war, as households rush to shield themselves from soaring power prices triggered by the worst global energy disruption in history.

The ​conflict has pushed oil, gas and electricity prices sharply higher, hitting companies and households alike and accelerating efforts to find cheaper alternatives and reduce exposure to volatile energy ‌markets.

Solar is among those options, with demand from homeowners more than doubling for some industry players since the war began in late February, according to interviews with more than half a dozen energy equipment wholesalers and renewable utilities in Germany, Britain and the Netherlands.

It’s a timely boost for a technology that accounts for about a third of Europe’s total power capacity, but saw the pace of new installations dip last year for the first time in ​nearly a decade. Industry advocates argue Europe still needs to do far more to cut its reliance on imported oil and gas.

“The war has merely exposed the problem that has ​existed all along: energy dependency,” said Janik Nolden, co-founder of German privately owned solar equipment wholesaler Solarhandel24, adding European governments had been “walking into a trap”.

Solarhandel24 said net sales more than tripled in March to nearly 70 million euros ($82 million) from a year earlier, and are expected to triple again this month to ​as much as 60 million euros. The company plans to expand its workforce by about 85 people, roughly a third, to cope with demand.

To secure supply, Solarhandel24 has stocked up around half a ​million solar panels in recent weeks - a costly decision, Nolden said, but one he sees as worthwhile given the potential for net sales to rise to around 400 million euros in 2026 from about 250 million euros last year.

Germany’s Enpal is seeing a similar trend. The energy firm said orders rose 30 percent year-on-year in March to 130 million euros, while April was on track for a 33 percent increase to about 120 million euros, driven by rooftop ​solar installations.

“This is about European resilience,” said Enpal CEO and founder Mario Kohle. “We are seeing this trend in the defence sector too. Just as Europe must be able to defend itself, we must ​be able to supply our own energy.”

The financial figures from Solarhandel24 and Enpal have not been previously reported.

While aggregated installation data for Europe are not yet available, industry associations in Germany and the Netherlands have confirmed ‌a pickup ⁠in demand since the war began.

Executives say homeowners are increasingly opting for full systems combining solar panels - nearly 90 percent of which are supplied by China - with batteries and electric-vehicle wallboxes, allowing surplus power to be stored and used later.

That trend is also lifting demand for energy storage technologies, which Holland Solar’s Wijnand van Hooff says is seeing demand increases of 40 percent-50 percent.

“This cannot be explained by purely seasonal factors,” said Filip Thon of E.ON (EONGn.DE), , Europe’s largest energy network operator, which also sells rooftop solar systems. Customer requests, he said, have nearly doubled year-on-year.

A STRUCTURAL SHIFT?

Some executives also point to upcoming changes ​to Germany’s renewable energy law as an additional ​driver of demand for rooftop installations, which ⁠typically cost between 10,000 and 20,000 euros for an average family home.

The war-driven surge comes after the pace of new European solar installations slowed, in 2025, according to industry lobby SolarPower Europe, with weak residential demand a key factor following the phase-out of support schemes.

Shares in SMA Solar (S92G.DE), , the world’s third-largest ​solar inverter maker and one of the few remaining European equipment producers, have risen about 50 percent since the war began. The company has ​also reported an uptick in ⁠demand.

“We view the spike in demand as a structural shift that current geopolitical events are accelerating, not creating,” said Ed Janvrin, who heads the solar and heating business at Britain’s OVO Energy, adding April sales in the division were roughly 10 times higher than a year earlier.

Chinese solar manufacturers, however, say any war-related boost in global demand is unlikely to significantly ease the sector’s overcapacity, with China alone having enough ⁠manufacturing capacity to ​meet this year’s expected global demand nearly twice over.

Even so, the surge highlights how geopolitical shocks can rapidly reprice ​the value of renewables, said Jannik Schall, co-founder of German renewables firm 1Komma5Grad, noting that solar demand during the 2022 energy crisis had been even stronger.

“The recurring energy crises prove the renewables sector right.”

When the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) database on April 14, one data point quickly made its way through financial markets and newsrooms.

Bangladesh is projected to record a higher gross domestic product per capita than India in 2026, measured in current US dollars. The forecast puts Bangladesh at $2,911 per person against India at $2,812. The difference is small in absolute terms, but its symbolism is significant.

India’s economy, valued at $3,916 billion in 2025, is roughly eight times the size of Bangladesh’s $458 billion. It is also one of the most closely watched growth stories in the world. Yet on this narrow measure, the smaller neighbour appears set to edge ahead.

The reaction in India was swift. Kaushik Basu, former chief economist of the World Bank, described the development as "shocking". Indian commentators debated whether the figure reflected a deeper structural divergence or merely a statistical quirk.

The answer, as is so often the case with economic data, is: both.

Measured in current dollars, Bangladesh led India in per capita income for seven years from 2018.

India moved ahead in 2025 after the Bangladeshi taka weakened sharply. This is not without precedent.

Bangladesh was also ahead of India in per capita GDP between 1989 and 2002.

India then pulled in front for around 15 years before slipping below Bangladesh in 2018.

The rupee's own depreciation against the dollar in the subsequent period then swung the comparison back.

According to the latest projections, Bangladesh is set to move ahead in 2026 by roughly $100 per person.

The IMF expects India to regain the lead in 2027 and to remain ahead at least until 2031.

To understand why this measure is so volatile, consider the arithmetic.

GDP per capita in current dollars is calculated by converting each country's output into US dollars at the prevailing exchange rate.

When a currency depreciates — as both the taka and the rupee have done in recent years, though at different speeds — it compresses the dollar value of output regardless of how productive the underlying economy has become.

The crossing of the two lines in 2026, seen on any given screen, tells us something real: that exchange-rate dynamics now place the two economies' dollar incomes within touching distance of each other. It does not, on its own, tell us which population is better off.

The second measure complicates the picture considerably. The IMF also publishes GDP per capita adjusted for purchasing power parity (PPP), which strips out exchange-rate movements and instead converts output into a common "international dollar" based on what each currency can actually buy domestically.

On this basis, India leads Bangladesh by a wide margin — and always has in the modern era.

In 2025, India's PPP-adjusted GDP per capita stands at $11,789 — some 15 percent above Bangladesh's $10,271.

By 2031, the IMF projects the gap will widen to nearly 24 percent, with India reaching $18,485 against Bangladesh's $14,857.

Nearly 1.6 crore people in Bangladesh faced high levels of acute food insecurity in 2025, placing the country among the top ten nations with the largest number of people struggling to secure enough food, according to the latest Global Report on Food Crises.

The 2026 report, published by an alliance of UN agencies, the European Union and other partners, said that food conditions in those ten worst-affected countries are unlikely to improve this year.

Together, including Afghanistan, Myanmar and Pakistan, they accounted for two-thirds of the 26.6 crore people worldwide who experienced acute food insecurity last year.

The other countries on the list are the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Nigeria, South Sudan, Sudan, the Syrian Arab Republic and Yemen.

The report said chronic economic weakness continues to erode resilience at both household and national levels.

"Half of the world's poorest people live in five countries, three of which -- Bangladesh, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Nigeria -- are in protracted food crises," it said.

Acute food insecurity occurs when one or more dimensions of food security, including availability, access, utilisation and stability, are disrupted to a degree that threatens lives or livelihoods.

Despite the scale of the challenge, Bangladesh recorded progress. The number of people facing acute food insecurity fell by 32 percent in 2025 compared with the previous year, with no major natural disasters reported.

The report, however, highlighted worsening conditions among forcibly displaced Myanmar nationals in two districts, amid a fresh influx of Rohingya refugees, flooding and cuts to humanitarian assistance.

Bangladesh is also listed among countries facing a moderate nutrition crisis, alongside Niger, parts of Nigeria and Sudan, and the Syrian Arab Republic, even as overall food security indicators improved.

Qu Dongyu, director-general of the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), said acute food insecurity had become structural rather than temporary. "Acute food insecurity today is not just widespread -- it is also persistent and recurring.”

Conflict remained the primary driver, accounting for more than half of all people facing severe hunger. More than 39 million people in 32 countries faced emergency levels of food insecurity, while the number experiencing catastrophic hunger had risen ninefold since 2016.

Children bore a heavy toll. In 2025, 35.5 million children were acutely malnourished, including nearly 10 million suffering from severe acute malnutrition.

Ricardo Pires, spokesperson for the UN Children's Fund (Unicef), warned that children with severe wasting faced heightened mortality risk, as weakened immune systems left them vulnerable to ordinarily non-fatal illnesses.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres, writing in the foreword, called for scaled-up investment in aid and an end to the conflicts driving the crisis.

The report also states that the outlook for 2026 remains bleak. Ongoing conflict, climate shocks, economic instability and Middle East-linked supply chain disruptions are expected to sustain critical food insecurity levels across multiple countries.

Bangladesh’s macroeconomic outlook is fragile as it faces three concurrent adverse external headwinds, including the Middle East crisis and the country’s impending graduation from the least developed country (LDC) category, said the Policy Research Institute (PRI) of Bangladesh yesterday.

Presenting the institute’s Monthly Macroeconomic Insights at its Dhaka office, Principal Economist Ashikur Rahman said uncertainty around US tariff policies is another factor casting a shadow over the economy’s prospects for a faster recovery.

“These shocks are feeding through energy prices, weakened trade flows, and supply chain disruptions, with broad economy-wide implications,” he said.

At the same time, pressure is building on the balance of payments amid weaker exports and higher energy costs, with limited policy buffers heightening overall vulnerability amid the US-Israel war on Iran.

Rahman noted that around 31 percent of Bangladesh’s energy imports originate from the Middle East, largely transiting the Strait of Hormuz. A study by Zero Carbon Analytics found that severe price shocks could raise the country’s energy bill by 40 percent to $16-$17 billion in the ongoing fiscal year 2025-26 (FY26).

The PRI economist noted that Bangladesh has seen a fragile recovery over the 18 months to February 2026, with reserves rising from about $18 billion to $30 billion, inflation easing to 8-9 percent, and deposit growth strengthening.

“Yet, this recovery was underpinned by core vulnerabilities,” said Rahman, noting growth slowed to 3 percent in the second quarter of FY26, the weakest since Covid. Non-performing loans stand at around 30 percent, dampening private credit growth to 6 percent, while limited fiscal space is pushing the government toward costly bank borrowing.

Against this backdrop, Rahman warned that rolling back reforms now would be self-defeating. “If we step back from economic reforms at this stage, it would be an economically suicidal decision. It must be treated as a national economic imperative.”

The reforms, he stressed, should not be framed as conditions set by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). “These are essential for strengthening our own economy and ensuring long-term growth.”

ICC Bangladesh President Mahbubur Rahman, speaking as the chief guest, said persistent uncertainty is making it harder for businesses to plan.

He pointed to a disconnect between policy direction and business expectations as a drag on private investment — and, by extension, on foreign direct investment. “In Bangladesh, politics and business often operate in parallel rather than in coordination. In reality, they should be deeply interconnected. Government, businesses, and investors are part of the same ecosystem.”

Besides, he said weak domestic investment is also constraining foreign direct investment inflows. “Local investment is not picking up, and naturally that raises a question: how will foreign direct investment come if domestic investors themselves are hesitant? Even machinery imports are declining because investors lack confidence.”

Uncertainty over energy supply and financial sector risks are key concerns, he said. “There is deep uncertainty among investors about whether they will get gas or electricity tomorrow. This lack of predictability is holding back decisions.

“On top of that, fears of becoming loan defaulters and difficulties in accessing finance are further increasing risk perception.”

Khondokar Shakhawat Ali, a visiting research fellow at the BRAC Institute of Governance and Development at BRAC University, stressed that economic stability requires structural reforms rather than short-term fixes.

He also pointed to the close nexus between political actors, bureaucrats, and sections of the private sector, saying, “It has blurred lines of responsibility and made reform more urgent.”

With Bangladesh facing both internal and external shocks, he cautioned that without prudent fiscal management, the country risks sliding into a deeper economic crisis.

Meanwhile, highlighting rising external risks, PRI Chairman Zaidi Sattar said geopolitical tensions, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, are posing systemic risks to global supply chains and fertiliser trade.

“Rising food, fuel, and fertiliser prices are pushing up import costs and intensifying inflationary pressures,” he said.

On Bangladesh’s LDC graduation, he said preparedness remains limited due to gaps in export diversification and competitiveness.

He also noted slow reform progress, stressing that “comprehensive tax reform is essential to strengthen domestic resource mobilisation.”

Former National Board of Revenue (NBR) chairman Muhammad Abdul Mazid said revenue reform is essential for economic stability, warning that delays will deepen fiscal risks.

“We must stop thinking that reforms are imposed from outside; these are reforms we need for our own survival,” he said, adding that continued failure to meet revenue targets is pushing the government into a cycle of borrowing that weakens the financial system.

“You cannot fix the economy without fixing the revenue system. This is where the foundation lies,” he said, noting that while reforms take time, postponing them will only raise long-term costs.

“If the economic ‘bleeding’ continues and we fail to act, recovery will become extremely difficult,” he added.