Oil prices edged down on Tuesday as traders gauged the potential for supply disruptions after US guidance for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz kept attention squarely on tensions between Washington and Tehran.

Brent crude oil futures were down 16 cents, or 0.23 percent, at $68.88 a barrel by 0800 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude fell 20 cents, or 0.31 percent, to $64.16.

That’s after prices rose more than 1 percent on Monday, when the US Department of Transportation’s Maritime Administration advised US-flagged commercial vessels to stay as far from Iran’s territorial waters as possible and to verbally decline Iranian forces permission to board if asked.

About a fifth of the oil consumed globally passes through the Strait of Hormuz between Oman and Iran, making any escalation in the area a major risk to global oil supplies.

Iran and fellow OPEC members Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Iraq export most of their crude via the strait, mainly to Asia.

The guidance was issued despite Iran’s top diplomat saying last week that Oman-mediated nuclear talks with the US were off to a “good start” and set to continue.

“While talks in Oman produced a cautiously positive tone, lingering uncertainty over potential escalation, sanctions tightening, or supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz has kept a modest risk premium intact,” Tony Sycamore, an analyst at IG, wrote in a client note.

Meanwhile, the European Union has proposed extending its sanctions against Russia to include ports in Georgia and Indonesia that handle Russian oil, the first time the bloc would target ports in third countries, according to a proposal document reviewed by Reuters.

The move is part of efforts to tighten sanctions on Russian oil, a key source of revenue for Moscow, over the war in Ukraine.

Indian Oil Corp bought six million barrels of crude from West Africa and the Middle East, traders said, as the Asian country steered clear of Russian oil in New Delhi’s push for a trade deal with Washington.

Bangladesh recorded 6,729 road accidents in 2025, resulting in 9,111 deaths and 14,812 injuries, highlighting road safety as a pressing national concern.Third-party motor insurance, intended to provide financial coverage for those affected by such incidents, remains underutilised despite its potential as a social protection tool.

The Insurance Development and Regulatory Authority (IDRA) relaunched third-party motor insurance in August 2025 under the name "Motor Liability Insurance" on a pilot basis. Non-life insurers are allowed to sell the policy for one year and report statistics to IDRA after the period ends. Yet, six months into the pilot, uptake remains minimal.

Experts cite two main reasons: the policy is not mandatory, and premiums are relatively high.

How Motor Liability Insurance Works

The policy covers financial liability if a third party suffers death, injury, or property damage caused by an insured vehicle. Maximum compensation is Tk2,00,000 per person in the event of death or permanent total disability. Partial permanent disability is compensated as per a prescribed schedule, while serious injuries with recovery potential receive up to Tk20,000. Vehicle or property damage is covered up to Tk60,000, with legal, arbitration, and related expenses up to Tk10,000.

Previously, third-party insurance was abolished in December 2020, following the Road Transport Act 2018, which removed the mandatory requirement.

Customer reluctance

A visit to Dhaka's IDRA office revealed widespread unawareness among motorcyclists about the insurance. Those familiar with it are reluctant to purchase it since it is optional.

Golam Rasul, a private-sector employee who occasionally drives passengers via ride-sharing platforms, told The Business Standard, "I would take it if the government made it mandatory. Right now, I don't see the need to pay such high premiums. Careful driving should be enough to avoid accidents."

Insurer frustration

According to United Insurance Company Limited, around Tk48 crore in premiums were collected between January and September 2025, but none came from motor insurance.

Khawja Manzer Nadeem, Managing Director, told TBS, "No one is purchasing motor insurance because it is not legally required. Under the pilot, we haven't even issued a single policy yet. Unlike in other countries, there's no system to quickly determine compensation, so people don't see practical benefits."

Brig. Gen. (Retd.) Md. Shafique Shamim, MD and CEO of Sena Insurance Company, added, "Limited awareness and interest exist. The policy won't work unless it's mandatory. Premiums should also be reconsidered."

An anonymous insurance official noted that most companies are not actively marketing the policy, leaving sales stagnant.

IDRA's position

IDRA spokesperson Saifunnahar Sumi told TBS, "Motor insurance should be mandatory. We've discussed this with BRTA, transport owner associations, and other stakeholders. However, trust issues in the insurance sector mean agreement has not been reached yet. We are continuing to work on this."

Premiums and coverage

Under the new policy, a 150cc motorcycle requires a total premium of Tk1,006, a 350cc three-wheeler with four seats, Tk1,696, a private car (1,300cc, five seats including driver), Tk2,070, and a two-seat three-ton truck, Tk3,651.

In case of accidents, compensation follows IDRA circulars: Tk2,00,000 for death or permanent total disability, Tk20,000 for serious injuries, Tk60,000 for property damage, and Tk10,000 for legal or arbitration costs.

Practical challenges

Implementation of third-party motor insurance in Bangladesh faces several practical challenges. Many vehicle owners remain unaware of the policy or purchase it only for formality, without fully understanding its coverage or benefits.

Even when an accident occurs, claimants often have to navigate lengthy legal procedures to receive compensation, making the process cumbersome and time-consuming.

Experts also note that the current compensation limits, such as Tk2,00,000 for death or permanent total disability, are insufficient to cover the needs of affected families in today's economic context.

In addition, disputes frequently arise between insurers and policyholders, with claims sometimes denied due to unauthorised drivers, exceeding vehicle usage limits, or delayed accident notifications. Such disputes are generally resolved through civil courts or arbitration, a process that, while considered a risk management tool by insurers, can further delay compensation and add to the financial strain on victims.

Future steps

Experts suggest updating compensation limits, digitising claims settlement, increasing public awareness, and coordinating among government, regulators, and insurers. Improved road safety would also reduce accidents and ease the burden on third-party insurance.

Third-party motor insurance is not just a legal requirement; it is a critical social safety net. Given the scale of road accidents in Bangladesh, the system must become stronger, more transparent, and more effective.

A combined effort from the law, the insurance sector, and the public can transform motor liability insurance into a robust protection mechanism.

Bangladesh's capital market is showing signs of recovery, but its long-term growth will depend on post-election political stability, structural reforms, and sustained regulatory improvements, the central bank said yesterday.

In its monetary policy statement for January–June 2026, Bangladesh Bank (BB) said the market exhibited an upward trajectory in the first half of FY26 despite occasional fluctuations, driven by a sharp increase in turnover that signals a revival of market momentum.

The DSEX index, the benchmark of the capital market, rose 0.6% to 4,865 points at the end of December 2025, up from 4,838 points in June.

The index gained further ground in the following weeks, crossing the 5,200 mark in early February 2026. Average daily turnover reached Tk650 crore in H1 FY26, up from Tk472 crore a year earlier, reflecting renewed investor confidence, BB said.

"These positive developments reflect revitalized market momentum, supported by ongoing reforms and a more favorable macroeconomic environment," the central bank said.

To further modernize the capital market, the government is pursuing measures including reducing state shareholdings in multinational companies, encouraging local firm listings, preventing market manipulation, and providing tax incentives.

BB also highlighted that the introduction of commodity exchanges and blockchain-based back-office systems is expected to improve transparency and bolster investor confidence. Coordinated efforts by the Ministry of Finance and other stakeholders are seen as essential to deepen financial markets and develop a more efficient debt market.

Regulatory Reforms to Boost Stability

The central bank noted recent amendments by the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC), which aim to enhance market stability, build investor confidence, and support long-term development. Among these, the Margin Rules 2025 strengthen risk management in margin trading, while proposed updates to IPO, Mutual Fund, and Public Issue Rules are intended to improve transparency and governance.

BSEC has also introduced faster investor dispute resolution mechanisms, established a Shariah Advisory Council to expand Islamic capital market products, and adjusted compliance timelines for brokers to reduce market stress, BB said.

Bond Market Developments

In the secondary market, a total of 232 government treasury bonds were actively traded until December 2025. During the month, the government raised Tk240 billion through six investment Sukuk, enabling banks and non-bank financial institutions including Islamic banks to meet statutory liquidity requirements and participate more actively in monetary management.

To strengthen the secondary market and establish a market-based yield curve, Bangladesh Bank has mandated that Primary Dealers provide two-way price quotes for Treasury bonds within the first hour of each business day, with compliance expected by 31 January 2026.

Shares of Bay Leasing and Investment Limited surged yesterday to the day's upper circuit after the non-bank financial institution reported a sharp reduction in losses for the July-September quarter of 2025, signalling improvement in its quarterly performance despite long-term challenges.

According to a price sensitive statement filed with the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE), the company's consolidated net loss declined by 80% year-on-year to Tk4.79 crore during the third quarter of 2025.

In the same quarter a year earlier, the company had posted a higher loss, with its loss per share narrowing to Tk0.34 from Tk1.67 over the period, reflecting better cost management.

The quarterly improvement was supported by a modest rise in interest income and a sharp fall in funding costs. Interest income edged up by 1% to Tk15.23 crore, while interest expenses on deposits and other borrowings dropped by 36% to Tk22.53 crore.

Market participants viewed the decline in interest expenses as a positive development, especially at a time when many non-bank financial institutions continue to struggle with high funding costs and asset quality issues.

Following the disclosure, the company's share price rose by 10% to Tk4.40, hitting the daily circuit breaker on the Dhaka bourse.

Traders said the stock attracted speculative buying interest on expectations that the company may be gradually stabilising its operations after several years of sustained losses.

However, the broader financial picture remains challenging. In the first nine months from January to September 2025, Bay Leasing's consolidated net loss widened by 31% to Tk47 crore, mainly due to heavy losses incurred during the first half of the year. As a result, its consolidated loss per share stood at Tk3.35 at the end of the nine-month period.

The company's balance sheet continues to reflect significant stress, with accumulated negative retained earnings amounting to Tk658.85 crore. This dragged its consolidated net asset value to a negative Tk28.55 per share, underscoring the depth of its financial difficulties.

The company has not declared any dividend since 2020, when it last paid a 10% cash dividend. Since then, the company has remained in the red every year.

Listed on the stock exchanges in 2009, Bay Leasing's shareholding structure shows sponsors and directors holding 18.30% of shares, while institutional investors own 23.98% and general investors hold the remaining 57.72%, according to its latest shareholding report.

Bangladesh's financial account recorded a surplus of $2.04 billion in the first six months of the current fiscal year, driven by higher net foreign direct investment (FDI) and increased trade credit.

According to the Balance of Payments (BOP) data released by the Bangladesh Bank today (9 February), the surplus during July–December of FY26 marks a sharp improvement from $525 million in the same period of the previous fiscal year.

At the same time, the country's current account deficit narrowed to $343 million in the first half of FY26, down from a deficit of $518 million a year earlier, supported mainly by strong remittance inflows of $16.6 billion.

Supported by the strong financial account surplus, Bangladesh's overall balance of payments recorded a surplus of $1.94 billion in July–December FY26, compared to a deficit of $467 million in the same period last year.

The current account is a key component of the balance of payments (BOP), reflecting a country's trade in goods and services, income from abroad, and current transfers such as remittances.

Bangladesh Bank data show that the trade deficit widened by 18.34% year-on-year to $11.55 billion during July–December FY26, compared to $9.76 billion in the same period last year. Imports rose by 5% to $33.67 billion, while exports grew by only 0.9% to $22.12 billion.

A senior Bangladesh Bank official said the rise in imports was mainly driven by higher purchases of consumer goods and capital machinery. Imports of consumer goods increased by 10.32%, while capital machinery imports jumped by 23.64%.

Zahid Hussain, former lead economist at the World Bank's Dhaka office, told The Business Standard that trade credit and net aid flows were the two main factors behind the strong financial account performance.

He explained that trade credit often turns negative when exports rise, but weaker export growth and higher deferred import payments have pushed it into surplus this time.

Remittance inflows in the first half of FY26 were about $2.5 billion higher than a year earlier. However, the trade deficit was roughly $1.79 billion wider, offsetting much of the remittance gain and limiting the improvement in the current account, according to him.

"The deterioration is primarily due to the widening trade deficit," Zahid Hussain said.

"Imports have increased, which in itself is not bad for the economy, but exports have not grown accordingly. In fact, export growth has fallen below 1%, widening the trade deficit and weighing on the current account."

He added, "An increase in imports is not a bad thing for the economy; rather, it is a sign of a healthy economy."

"A decline in exports, however, is detrimental. Therefore, I believe it is essential to work on increasing the country's exports in the coming days," the economist said.

Bangladesh Bank Governor Ahsan H Mansur has said he did not face any pressure from the government or any quarter while discharging his duties during the tenure of the interim government.

"During my time as governor under the interim government, I did not feel any kind of pressure from any side. Rather, there was operational freedom and no interference whatsoever. This can be stated without hesitation," the governor said while speaking to journalists at the announcement of the monetary policy today (9 February).

However, he noted that despite submitting recommendations for several important laws to the government, they were not implemented. One of them was the Bangladesh Bank Order.

"In October, the Bangladesh Bank Order was sent to the Ministry of Finance for finalisation. Even though there was sufficient time, it could not be implemented. This has to be considered a failure, because it should have been done," he said.

He added that the second key legislation was the Bank Company Act. "This is also a very important law. We believed the current government would be able to implement it, but that did not happen. Therefore, we hope that whichever government comes next will honour the financial development commitments made in their election manifesto," he said.

The governor said these issues would be placed before the next government, stressing that implementation is necessary in the national interest.

"If these reforms are not carried out, the misuse and plundering of the banking sector that we saw in the past could return. Implementing the Bank Company Order as a permanent shield is essential. Central banks around the world are protected in this manner," he added.

Ahsan H Mansur also distinguished political and central banking priorities. "Politicians want to boost the economy quickly in the short term, whereas the responsibility of a central bank is to ensure sustainable development. This is what we see in the United States. If political pressure does not come onto the central bank, economic discipline will not be lost," he said.

He cautioned that while discipline has not yet been fully restored, losing it again would be unfortunate.

Referring to foreign exchange management, the governor said the central bank had purchased $4.5 billion from the market, injecting more than Tk50,000 crore into the economy.

"Through these purchases, reserves have been built up. Are we dependent on the IMF? No. Even in reserve building, the central bank is not dependent on the IMF," he said.

The US is using offtake deals and state-backed funding to compete in the short term with China in securing supplies of African copper, cobalt and other critical minerals, diplomats, executives and analysts said ahead of this week's Indaba.

Washington's focus is on Zambia, Guinea and Democratic Republic of Congo. The latter accounts for more than 70% of global cobalt supplies and produced some 3.3 million metric tons of copper in 2024.

Instead of placing US operators in high-risk countries, however, the US is leaning towards offtake and other trading structures such as one it has with Mercuria and arrangements it has with Congolese state miner Gécamines, to edge output into US-aligned value chains dominated by Chinese refiners.

Offtake is where a country or company secures rights to a share of a mine's output in exchange for financing or other support.

"We're already seeing US engagement reshape mineral flows out of Africa," said Thomas Scurfield, a senior analyst with nonprofit NRGI, ahead of the event in South Africa.

"The US is putting money behind its rhetoric, but it remains to be seen whether it can compete with China's scale and speed," Scurfield added.

Both Washington and Beijing are expected to seek new commitments at the Indaba mining event in Cape Town this week, with the US sounding out officials on its minerals bloc.

Central to the change, Gécamines is preparing to ship around 100,000 tons of its Tenke Fungurume copper allocation to US buyers this year after winning broader marketing rights in a 2023 renegotiation with China's CMOC.

Financial firepower rather than industrial presence

The US strategy stretches beyond copper.

Xiao Wenhao, analyst at Shanghai Metals Market, said China's cobalt supply chain also faces risks as Congo's export restrictions collide with expanding US–DRC cooperation.

Elsewhere, London-based Pensana ditched plans to build a rare earth refinery in Britain to process feedstock from its mine in Angola, shifting the project to the United States, citing stronger US incentives and price guarantees.

"This is the US deploying financial firepower rather than industrial presence," said Vincent Rouget, analyst at Control Risks. "With offtake and trading channels, Washington can redirect Congolese copper to American buyers without taking on the political or operational risks of running mines in the DRC."

Chinese firms still control many of Congo's biggest copper and cobalt assets, including Tenke Fungurume and Kamoa-Kakula, and have routed most output to China for refining for more than a decade.

Beyond copper and cobalt, Congo is emerging as a supplier of zinc, germanium and gallium.

New offtake arrangements position Gécamines as a leading zinc exporter and principal buyer of germanium and gallium concentrates, with the company recently recording its first export of locally processed germanium.

China versus the west

The contrast in capital deployment remains sharp.

KoBold Metals has staked more than 3,000 square kilometers in the lithium and copper belt, but will not advance projects which are entangled in disputes, stressing governance standards, its Congolese head Benjamin Katabuka told Reuters.

Chinese operators, by contrast, have proceeded on contested ground, reinforcing their speed‑to‑market advantage.

At Manono, one of the world's largest undeveloped lithium deposits, KoBold says it will not move until ownership issues are resolved, even as Zijin advances infrastructure on the northern block.

If it secures the southern block cleanly, KoBold says production could start within three years.

In Guinea, China‑backed Winning Consortium Simandou pushed ahead with rail and port construction at the giant Simandou despite ownership disputes, effectively forcing Rio Tinto to fall in line.

Shares of eight non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs) flagged for closure by Bangladesh Bank saw sharp gains today (9 February), with prices rising between 10% and 10.42% on the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE).

The central bank had in December last year announced plans to shut down nine NBFIs under the Bank Resolution Ordinance 2025, the country's first comprehensive framework for merging, restructuring, or liquidating failed banks and financial institutions. The nine included FAS Finance, Bangladesh Industrial Finance Company (BIFC), Premier Leasing, Fareast Finance, GSP Finance, Prime Finance, Aviva Finance, Peoples Leasing, and International Leasing.

The closure decision came amid persistent irregularities and weak management, with default loan ratios ranging between 75% and 98%. However, BB later excluded GSP Finance, Prime Finance, and BIFC from the closure list, granting them three to six months to improve financial indicators.

Market insiders said investors reacted to the possibility that a new government after the upcoming election might reconsider or delay the closures, triggering strong buying interest. Earlier, the announcement of the closures had sent share prices of these institutions plunging, causing heavy losses for investors.

Today, FAS Finance rose 10.31%, BIFC 8.33%, Premier Leasing 9.78%, Fareast Finance 10%, GSP Finance 10%, Prime Finance 10%, Peoples Leasing 10.42%, and International Leasing 10.42%.

Bangladesh Bank said a total of Tk15,370 crore in deposits remains stuck in these nine institutions, including Tk3,525 crore from individual depositors and Tk11,845 crore from banks and corporate entities. Among individual deposits, Peoples Leasing holds the largest amount at Tk1,405 crore, followed by Aviva Finance (Tk809 crore), International Leasing (Tk645 crore), Prime Finance (Tk328 crore), and FAS Finance (Tk105 crore).

Seven of the nine NBFIs currently report a negative net asset value per share of Tk95, meaning shareholders would receive nothing if assets were liquidated.

Experts said years of weak oversight, related-party lending, failure to recover defaulted loans, and inflated asset valuations left many of these institutions effectively insolvent.

GQ Ball Pen Industries, a publicly listed company, posted a 4.62% year-on-year rise in sales in the first half of the current fiscal year, while its losses narrowed during the July–December period, according to its latest financial statements.

Sales increased to Tk1.13 crore in H1, up from Tk1.08 crore in the same period of FY25. The company reported a net loss of Tk78 lakh, translating to a loss per share of Tk0.87. In the corresponding period a year earlier, it had posted a larger net loss of Tk1.27 crore, with a per-share loss of Tk1.43.

Explaining the continued losses, the company attributed the negative earnings per share (EPS) primarily to higher raw material and input costs, a stronger US dollar, and subdued sales amid weak market demand. These factors led to a significant operating loss during the period, which weighed on overall earnings.

Despite recording a per-share loss of Tk1.83 for FY25, the company declared a 10% cash dividend for general shareholders, excluding sponsor-directors.

Following the dividend payout, the Dhaka Stock Exchange upgraded GQ Ball Pen's listing status to Category A from Category B. The company's shares closed at Tk491.80 on the latest trading day, down 2.05% from the previous session.

The UK's NatWest Group said on Monday it had agreed to buy Evelyn Partners in a deal valuing one of Britain's largest wealth managers at 2.7 billion pounds ($3.68 billion), including debt.

Evelyn's private equity shareholders, Permira and Warburg Pincus, kicked off a sale of Evelyn last year, drawing interest from Barclays, NatWest, Lloyds and the Royal Bank of Canada, Reuters had reported.

The deal creates Britain's largest private banking and wealth management business and transforms NatWest Group's savings and investment offering for its 20 million customers, the British lender said.

NatWest expects the deal to generate about 100 million pounds in annual cost savings and also announced a 750 million pound share buyback.

Bangladesh’s foreign exchange reserves crossed $29 billion for the first time since the central bank began calculating the stock in line with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) method.

Yesterday, reserves stood at $29.47 billion, up from $29.23 billion recorded on February 5, according to Bangladesh Bank (BB).

This is the highest level since July 12, 2023, when the BB started computing reserves under the sixth edition of the IMF’s Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual (BPM6) — a global framework that reflects readily available reserves to clear import bills and other international obligations.

Thanks to rising remittances and moderated import demand, reserves have been gradually replenishing for more than a year.

The turnaround began after the fall of the Awami League government in August 2024, as remittance inflows increased.

The BB said gross reserves reached $34.06 billion yesterday, the highest since November 2022. Continued purchases of the greenback also supported the rebound.

Previously, the BB had sold dollars to support the taka’s value, but at the start of the current fiscal year, it began buying US dollars from banks to curb depreciation and stabilise the exchange rate.

The central bank reported purchasing $4.3 billion during this fiscal year from the interbank market through transparent auctions to build reserves.

In its monetary policy for January-June, the BB said it will maintain a focus on exchange rate flexibility, leveraging strong remittance inflows and improved reserves to buffer against external shocks.

Bangladesh’s gross reserves had crossed $48 billion in August 2021 for the first time. They later declined due to a sharp spike in imports following the removal of Covid-19 curbs and rising global commodity prices amid the Russia-Ukraine war.

By May 2024, overall dollar holdings had fallen to $24 billion.

Gold and silver extended gains on Monday, with the yellow metal trading just above $5,000 per ounce as the dollar dipped, while investors awaited key US jobs and inflation data due later in the week to gauge the interest rate trajectory.

Spot gold rose 0.9 to $5,004.61 per ounce by 0748 GMT after a 4 percent climb on Friday. US gold futures for April delivery gained 1 percent to $5,026.30 per ounce.

“This could be the very short-term intraday correlation between the dollar and silver as well as gold (driving the metals up),” said Kelvin Wong, a senior market analyst at OANDA.

The US dollar was at its lowest level since February 4, making greenback-priced metals cheaper for overseas buyers. The yen strengthened after Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi swept to victory in Sunday’s election.

“Bargain-hunting is (also) pushing gold back above the $5,000 level,” said KCM chief analyst Tim Waterer.

Investors await monthly reports on employment and consumer prices this week, and expect at least two 25-basis-point rate cuts in 2026, with the first one expected in June. Non-yielding bullion tends to do well in low-interest-rate environments.

“Any softness in the jobs data could help gold’s rebound efforts. We are not expecting a rate cut from the Fed until mid-year, unless the jobs data really starts to drop off a cliff,” Waterer said.

San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly said on Friday she thinks one or two more interest rate cuts may be needed to counteract weakness in the labour market.

Spot silver climbed 3.7 percent to $80.89 per ounce after a near 10 percent gain in the previous session. It hit an all-time high of $121.64 on January 29.

“Unless silver is able to clear above that key resistance at $92.24, I’m not so convinced in terms of a probability perspective of a medium uptrend,” Wong said.

The Bangladesh Bank (BB) kept its policy rate unchanged at 10 percent yesterday, citing persistent high inflation ahead of the national election this week.

The policy rate, or repo rate, is a key tool used to influence credit demand and money circulation, aiming to contain demand-driven inflation. The central bank said it would maintain its tight monetary stance throughout the January-to-June period.

In line with this approach, the BB has kept the double-digit policy rate since October 2024.

Despite this monetary tightening, inflation rose for the third consecutive month, reaching 8.58 percent in January.

Rising food prices ahead of Ramadan, the month of fasting for Muslims when demand for certain food items usually ticks up, contributed to the increase, according to the state statistical agency BBS.

The 12-month average inflation in January stood at 8.66 percent, well above the BB’s target of reducing the price pressure below 7 percent.

While unveiling the monetary policy, BB Governor Ahsan H Mansur said many objectives had been achieved, but inflation remained above target. He highlighted broader economic improvements, especially in governance and stabilising the banking and financial sector.

“However, inflation remains slightly behind target. The goal was to bring it down to around 7 percent, but it is still about 8.5 percent,” Mansur said, adding that monetary policy alone cannot achieve all outcomes, and that it must be coordinated with fiscal measures.

In the Monetary Policy Statement, the BB reduced the Standing Deposit Facility (SDF) rate, at which commercial banks park excess liquidity with the central bank, by 50 basis points to 7.5 percent.

Amid weak private-sector credit growth, the adjustment is intended to discourage banks from holding funds at the BB and encourage lending to the private sector.

Credit to the private sector fell to a historic low of 6.1 percent in December, while public-sector lending rose to 28.9 percent. However, the projection for private-sector credit growth was at 7.2 percent and public-sector growth at 20.5 percent.

Mansur noted that government borrowing heavily influences the money market, tightening liquidity and keeping interest rates high, which crowds out private-sector lending.

“Total credit has grown, but a large portion has gone to the government rather than the private sector, creating distribution pressure,” he said.

In the Monetary Policy Statement, the BB projects public-sector credit growth to reach 21.6 percent in the second half of FY26, driven by pre-election fiscal spending and post-election administrative expenditures during the government transition.

Besides, the government’s budget target of borrowing Tk 1,18,000 crore from the banking system was factored into this projection.

The governor said domestic credit expansion is strong, but private-sector lending could have grown faster if government borrowing were lower.

Mansur said persistent government demand in the money market keeps pressure on overall demand and prevents interest rates from falling rapidly.

He said high rates, though restrictive, have helped stabilise the exchange rate and supported foreign reserve accumulation.

“Earlier, Bangladesh repeatedly failed to meet IMF reserve targets, but since August 2024 all quarterly targets have been achieved or even exceeded, even before receiving IMF funds,” Mansur said.

Gross foreign exchange reserves stood at $34.06 billion yesterday, up from around $26 billion a year earlier. Under IMF calculations, reserves were $29.47 billion according to the BPM6 model.

The policy statement noted that economic activity remained broadly stable, supporting a positive growth outlook. “However, political developments, soft industrial output, persistent inflation, and global headwinds may undermine growth prospects,” it added.

Inflation has moderated, but at a slow pace, suggesting expectations are not yet firmly anchored around the target. “This development underscores the need for continued policy tightening, which should cool inflation further by the end of this fiscal year,” the statement said.

Syed Mahbubur Rahman, managing director of Mutual Trust Bank, told The Daily Star that the policy rate alone cannot curb inflationary pressure, given supply-chain constraints and other factors.

He said that most loans in Bangladesh are corporate, with only 10 percent in retail, so interest rate hikes do not affect consumers immediately. Private-sector loan demand would not rise sharply even after the election.

Birupaksha Paul, professor of economics at the State University of New York in Cortland, said the 10 percent repo rate remains appropriate but is contributing to cost-push inflation.

“Private credit growth was 6.1 percent in December 2025 and is projected to be 8.5 percent in June 2026. While that part is tightened with the aim of reducing inflation, public-sector credit growth, projected at 21.6 percent, will be the main driver of sustained high inflation.”

He noted that the projection is ambitious, given that public-sector credit reached 28.9 percent in December 2025. Additional spending on new pay scales could make reducing it to around 22 percent difficult.

Paul, a former chief economist of BB, added that the economy may gain momentum after the election, but its strength will depend on improvements in law and order.

Ashikur Rahman, principal economist at the Policy Research Institute, said the BB’s cautious stance is justified as inflation remains stubbornly high. The recent rise in prices appears partly driven by electoral dynamics, which boost consumption ahead of national elections.

Fahmida Khatun, executive director at the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), said contractionary monetary policy is appropriate given persistent inflation, but fiscal policy also needs tightening, and market monitoring should be strengthened.

She added that a prolonged tight stance is unfavourable for investment, but controlling inflation must take priority.

In a reaction, the Dhaka Chamber of Commerce and Industry expressed concern over the BB’s decision to maintain a contractionary stance solely to control inflation.

“The reality, however, tells a different story. Despite prolonged tight monetary conditions, inflation has not been effectively contained, proving that this tool has largely failed while inflicting serious damage on productive economic activities,” the chamber said.

The next elected government must prioritise bold economic reforms starting from its very first day in office to sustain macroeconomic stability and reignite growth momentum, economists and policy analysts said today (9 February).

They emphasised that reforms should be front-loaded within the first two years of the tenure, arguing that postponement often leads to political hesitation and a loss of momentum.

The observations came at a seminar titled "Macroeconomic Insights: An economic reform agenda for the elected government," jointly organised by the Policy Research Institute (PRI) and the Australian Government's Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT) at a city hotel.

Speaking as the chief guest, Finance Adviser Salehuddin Ahmed said resistance to reform was deeply entrenched across institutions.

"In government and everywhere, there is a lack of coordination and an apathy to reforms. Everyone can talk about reforms, but [many] want the status quo," he said.

"Especially those who have pensions, they want 'let it stay as it is, let it run for another 10 years'. This inertia became the problem we faced," he said.

Political hesitation, reform fatigue

KAS Murshid, former director general of the Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS), noted Bangladesh's reform record showed that major changes usually happened only under external pressure.

"The interesting thing about reform is that if you look back at our economic history, the only time when you see significant reform taking place is when the IMF breathes down our necks," he said.

He noted that governments often shy away from necessary changes due to fear of political backlash, usually acting only when forced by external realities.

To counter this, he proposed a dedicated institutional framework. "We actually need some kind of institution, like a Regulatory Reform Commission, that will be solely engaged in looking at policy reforms, researching policy reforms and making recommendations to the government," he said.

Jobs, skills, social protection

Fahmida Khatun, executive director of the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) said, despite years of high GDP growth, the economy failed to generate adequate employment, a key driver behind the recent social uprisings.

She pointed to a serious skills mismatch in the labour market, where higher educational qualifications often correlate with higher unemployment rates.

Fahmida urged the next government to focus heavily on labour market reforms and social protection, noting that without domestic resource mobilisation, funding these safety nets would be impossible.

Speaking at the event, Clinton Pobke, deputy high commissioner at the Australian High Commission in Bangladesh, said the country had strong economic potential if the right policies were implemented. "If the foundational policy pieces are put in place, there is no reason Bangladesh couldn't sustain 8-10% growth," he said.

Presenting the keynote paper, PRI principal economist, Ashikur Rahman, highlighted serious weaknesses in the banking sector, describing the situation as precarious.

He revealed that while non-performing loans (NPLs) in private sector banks were reported at around 7% earlier in 2024, asset quality reviews (AQRs) have now uncovered the real figure to be approximately 32%.

"The NPL did not suddenly increase; it was hidden," he said. "The banking sector has a staggering Tk6.4 trillion in distressed assets sitting on balance sheets."

PRI Chairman Zaidi Sattar, along with other industry experts and development partners, also spoke at the seminar, reiterating calls for a regulatory reform commission and stronger policy coordination to navigate the changing geopolitical landscape.

The Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) between Bangladesh and Japan is expected to come into force immediately after approval by Japan's newly formed parliament.

Officials said the deal will initially cost Bangladesh around Tk20 crore in annual revenue, while creating significant opportunities for exports, services, investment, and employment.

The announcement was made today (9 February) at a press conference held by the Ministry of Commerce at the Secretariat. Commerce Adviser Sk Bashir Uddin and Commerce Secretary Mahbubur Rahman addressed the press, outlining the key features, benefits, and challenges of the EPA.

The agreement was signed on Friday in Tokyo, with Sk Bashir Uddin and Japanese Deputy Foreign Minister Hori Iwao representing their respective countries. Negotiations began on March 24, 2025, and after seven rounds covering 21 issues, the agreement was finalised.

Trade and Tariff Benefits

Under the EPA, Bangladesh will grant Japan duty-free access for 1,039 products, while Japan will provide duty-free entry for 7,379 Bangladeshi products. Currently, Bangladesh's tariff line includes 7,458 items.

Commerce Secretary Mahbubur Rahman explained that according to WTO principles, countries are generally required to provide duty-free access to 80% of products, which will be implemented gradually over 5 to 15 years, with some products taking up to 18 years to achieve full duty-free treatment. He added that additional products will be granted duty-free access to Japan over time.

Mahbubur Rahman also noted that many products, including food items, cotton, and yarn, already enter Japan at zero duty, while machinery faces 1% duty.

Combining these, Bangladesh has already provided 1,039 products with duty-free access, meaning the immediate revenue loss is minimal.

Bashiruddin said the expected initial revenue loss is around Tk20 crore or less per year.

Service Sector and Investment Opportunities

The EPA allows Bangladesh to operate 120 services duty-free in Japan, while Japan opens 98 services in Bangladesh. Currently, sectors such as five-star hotels and mobile phone services are included. Officials said the agreement is expected to attract Japanese investment into Bangladesh's service sector.

A key feature of the agreement is the single-stage transformation facility for Bangladesh's ready-made garments. Bangladesh can import fabric, manufacture garments with only 30% value addition, and export them duty-free to Japan. Bashiruddin highlighted that this provision could significantly enhance the competitiveness of Bangladesh's garment industry.

Implementation Timeline

Mahbubur Rahman said the EPA must be approved by parliament before coming into effect. Following Japan's Sunday election, the National Diet is expected to convene soon, after which the agreement will become operational.

Bashiruddin added that Bangladesh is not rushing implementation, as it already enjoys duty-free access under its LDC status, extended until 2029.

Economic and Employment Opportunities

Bashiruddin said the agreement creates broad economic opportunities, including expanded exports, investment, and employment for Bangladeshis in Japan.

The EPA has already increased the flow of Bangladeshis to Japan, particularly for language training, enabling them to access a variety of skilled jobs. Japanese language institutes are expected to expand, providing further workforce development.

Challenges and Next Steps

On potential challenges, Sheikh Bashiruddin said that as Bangladesh graduates from LDC status, it must liberalize trade under WTO frameworks. Businesses will need to strengthen their capacity to fully leverage the EPA; otherwise, challenges may arise. The agreement provides 18 years to build sectoral capacity, ultimately benefiting domestic industries and consumers.

Ramadan Market Stability

Addressing market stability during the upcoming Ramadan, Sheikh Bashiruddin said the government has ensured sufficient imports to meet demand, despite potential strikes and misinformation on social media.

While acknowledging that strikes are a democratic right, he warned that unrest could negatively affect markets. Officials said imports are already in transit, ensuring that sufficient goods will reach the market. He expressed confidence that the upcoming Ramadan would see better market stability than last year.

The reciprocal tariff for Bangladesh to the USA has been fixed at 19 percent, down from the existing 20 percent, as Bangladesh and the USA tonight signed a trade agreement, Commerce Secretary Mahbubur Rahman told The Daily Star after the signing.

The USA has granted duty-free or lower duty access to 2,500 Bangladeshi products, while Bangladesh allowed 4,400 American products either duty-free or at lower duty, the commerce secretary also said.

Garment items made from imported American cotton are allowed zero duty on export to the USA, Rahman added.

Pharmaceutical products, fisheries, particle board, and all kinds of food items will also enjoy duty-free access to the US market.

On the Bangladesh side, the signatories were Commerce Adviser Sheikh Bashir Uddin and National Security Adviser Khalilur Rahman, while on the US side Ambassador Jamieson Greer, US Trade Representative, signed the agreement, according to a statement released by the Chief Adviser’s Office.

Negotiations on the agreement spanned nine months since April last year, the statement read.

Ambassador Greer lauded Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus for his overarching leadership of the negotiation process and praised the Bangladesh negotiating team for its "incredible efforts.”

“This agreement will fit Bangladesh into US trade policy,” he said.

After the signing, the commerce adviser, who led the Bangladesh side in negotiations, said: “The agreement marked a historically new level in our bilateral economic and trade relations. It will provide substantially enhanced access for Bangladesh and the US to each other's respective markets.”

The US will further reduce the reciprocal tariff to 19%, which was originally set at 37% and later reduced to 20% in August last year.

In addition, the US committed to establishing a mechanism for certain textile and apparel goods from Bangladesh using US-produced cotton and man-made fiber to receive zero reciprocal tariff in the US market.

“The reduction of reciprocal tariff will grant further advantage to our exporters, while zero reciprocal tariff on specific textile and apparel exports from Bangladesh using US inputs will give substantial added impetus to our garments sector,” said National Security Adviser Rahman, who was Bangladesh's chief negotiator.

The agreement was approved by the Council of Advisers and will be operational once notifications are issued by the two sides.

Present during the signing were the commerce secretary of Bangladesh and Assistant US Trade Representative Brendan Lynch.

The Bangladesh Bank (BB) plans to take the unprecedented step of directly inspecting properties offered as collateral for loans exceeding Tk 50 crore as Governor Ahsan H Mansur intensifies efforts to root out fraud and restore discipline to the crisis-hit banking sector.

In a move that signals a significant tightening of oversight for high-value exposures, BB will no longer rely solely on commercial banks’ internal valuations.

Instead, BB teams will verify the existence and value of lands or properties pledged as security.

The initiative aims to dismantle governance failures in the financial system, where politically connected borrowers have historically secured inflated loans against non-existent or grossly overvalued assets.

“Properties or lands used as collateral will be inspected by a BB team, so that lending can be disciplined,” Mansur said at a press conference on monetary policy in Dhaka yesterday. “Those properties must be registered with the BB for scrutiny.”

The directive targets the upper tier of corporate borrowing, a segment rife with non-performing loans.

The newly signed Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) with Japan will cost Bangladesh less than Tk 20 crore annually in forgone import duties on Japanese goods, while potentially delivering substantial benefits through expanded exports and labour mobility to the world’s fifth-largest economy.

The February 6 agreement, signed in Tokyo, creates a heavily asymmetric arrangement that favours Bangladesh, according to a briefing by Commerce Adviser Sk Bashir Uddin held at the commerce ministry office in Dhaka yesterday.

Under the deal, Japan will provide immediate duty-free access to 7,379 Bangladeshi products while Bangladesh will grant the same privilege to just 1,039 Japanese items, a ratio of more than seven to one.

The number of duty-free Japanese products will increase gradually over 18 years. Bangladesh’s garment industry, the crown jewel of the export sector, stands to gain significantly from favourable terms that could enhance its competitiveness in the Japanese market.

Bangladesh’s garment industry stands to gain significantly from favourable terms that could enhance its competitiveness in the Japanese market
The agreement permits single-stage transformation, allowing manufacturers to enjoy zero-duty benefits even when using imported fabrics, Commerce Secretary Mahbubur Rahman said at the conference.

This provision addresses a key constraint for Bangladeshi exporters, who often rely on imported textiles due to limited domestic fabric production capacity.

The secretary also noted that Bangladesh, being a least developed country (LDC), enjoyed a privilege in some areas in the deal with Japan, a developed nation.

For instance, he said Bangladesh has been given 10 years of relaxation in the intellectual property rights which means Japan will not ask for the patent right of the goods in next 10 years from the date of enforcement of the EPA.

Beyond trade in goods, the EPA creates significant opportunities for Bangladeshi professionals in Japan’s ageing, labour-constrained economy.

The agreement enables skilled workers, including doctors, nurses, caregivers, and domestic helpers, to access Japanese employment markets, Adviser Bashir Uddin said.

Japanese investors are already establishing language training centers in Bangladesh to prepare workers for these opportunities.

The commerce adviser expressed optimism that students and professionals will be able to access opportunities in the G-7 nation, potentially creating a new avenue for foreign remittances.

The services component of the agreement also tilts in Bangladesh’s favour. Bangladesh secured access to 120 Japanese sub-sectors while opening 98 sub-sectors across 12 sectors to Japanese investment.

The EPA’s timing proves crucial as Bangladesh prepares to graduate from LDC status later this year, which typically triggers loss of preferential trade terms. While Japan has separately extended existing LDC benefits for Bangladeshi goods until 2029, the EPA provides a more permanent framework for market access.

The deal represents Bangladesh’s first comprehensive bilateral trade agreement with a major developed economy, following a more limited preferential trade arrangement with Bhutan in December 2020. It reflects the government’s strategy to secure preferential access with key trading partners before losing LDC privileges, with similar negotiations underway with other major economies to maintain export competitiveness in the post-LDC era.

The agreement awaits ratification by Japan’s parliament, the Diet, which is expected within the next few days as the general election in Japan was held February 8, said the commerce adviser. The adviser also said seven rounds of negotiation were held to sign the agreement between the two countries.

State Minister for Foreign Affairs in Japan HORII Iwao signed the agreement on behalf of Japan while Bashir Uddin from Bangladesh on behalf of Bangladesh.

Bangladesh Bank has yet again decided to be clenched-fist on money supply.

During the second half of this fiscal year, according to monetary policy statement (MPS), the policy rate will remain unchanged at 10 per cent as inflation frowns.

In the new MPS unveiled Monday, the central bank, however, takes into cognizance concerns vented by economists and businesses over investment stagnation and announces some stimuli like higher credit supply to private sector.

But monetary experts opine differently about the inflation-control strategy, saying that the Bangladesh Bank (BB) brings some changes in the projections of monetary policy statement that might further feed into inflation, driven largely by supply-side factors.

According to the latest MPS for January-June period, the disinflation process is currently showing some inconsistencies, but remains at a relatively elevated level, suggesting that a policy-rate reduction may not be prudent at this time.

"It's essential to anchor the exchange-rate stability. As this helps contain imported inflation, lowering the policy rate could unintentionally create depreciation pressure on the exchange rate," it is stated in the policy document.

There are also several near-term inflation risks, including the upcoming national elections, the approaching holy month of Ramadan, and the possible announcement of a new national pay scale.

"These elements typically stimulate demand and consumer spending, underscoring the need for a careful, balanced monetary policy."

Accordingly, BB will maintain the policy rate at 10.0 per cent and continue its tighter stance in the second half of the fiscal 2025-26, the regulator says to justify the carryover contractionary policy.

The Standing Lending Facility (SLF) will be held at 11.5 per cent. However, BB decided to lower Standing Deposit Facility (SDF) by 50 basis points from 8.0 per cent to 7.5 per cent.

The lowering of SDF is aimed at encouraging interbank money market as well as private-sector investment, loan and advances activities.

Under the MPS, the broad money or M2 is projected at 7.8 per cent until December 2025 but the money-supply growth actually reached 9.60 per cent. The initial broad money projection was 8.50 per cent by end of June next. Now the projection is revised upward to 11.50 per cent.

In terms of credit to the public sector, the projection has been enhanced to 21.60 per cent by June next in place of prior projection of 18.10 per cent.

Simultaneously, the projection of private-sector credit growth has also been expanded to 8.50 per cent until June next from the initial projection of 8.0 per cent, in accordance with the latest MPS.

Bangladesh Bank Governor Dr Ahsan H. Mansur said they ought to concentrate on building up foreign-exchange reserves. In the process, they have purchased more than US$4.50 billion from the banks in the last seven months and injected liquidity worth over Tk 500 billion into the market.

"Yes, it has a cost but we don't see it as cost because the broad money projection (11.50 per cent) is still lower if we consider the nominal GDP and inflation target (over 12 per cent)," he told the policy-presentation function.

Talking about the nature of the MPS, the central bank governor said it is tightened but not as tight as it used to be. "The reality is we're easing up within the tighter framework."

Responding to a question over possible impact of the government bank- borrowing pressure if the proposed pay scale is implemented, the governor said it would certainly push up government bank borrowings if it is not met by increasing revenues.

He said the credit growth to the public sector had already climbed as high as 28.9 per cent by December last. "If it increases further, it will have negative impact on private sector. So, we need to make the government understand the consequences. We want the government will meet a portion of the funding requirement through revenue mobilisation so that presser is lesser."

Dr Mansur thinks it will cause two problems: interest rate will not decrease or rise further and fuel inflationary pressure. "These are unpleasant tradeoffs. We cannot deny it."

Regarding the lowering of SDF rate by 50 basis points, he said there are banks having surplus liquidity but they did not invest in the money market. Instead, they keep the funds into the BB at 8.0 per cent.

"The BB does not need money. We want banks invest the money in interbank market or in the private sector. That's why we cut the SDF rate to discourage it," he added.

Contacted for his view, former lead economist of World Bank's Dhaka Office Dr Zahid Hussain said the monetary-policy regime shifted to interest-rate targeting from monetary targeting. Under the policy shift, there is no target but projections.ঢাকা বিমান টিকেট

He says the central bank can contain inflation through controlling demand-side factors but the latest inflation spikes largely driven by the supply-side factors where the central bank has almost no control.

In this MPS, the economist says, some sort of easiness has been observed. "If demand side loses, it will create additional fuel to the fire. With this strategy, bringing down inflation at the expected level is not realistic."

About the SDF-rate cut, he says the rate is lowered mainly because of public-sector-borrowing pressure. "It may be a mild measure to prevent crowding-out effect." The economist was suggesting the central bank to mention the future path of reforms like Bangladesh Bank Order, Bank Company Act, Distressed Asset Management Act and AQR (asset quality review) in the MPS, which is missing.

In an immediate reaction, Dhaka Chamber of Commerce and Industry (DCCI) expressed grave concern and disappointment over central bank's decision to maintain contractionary monetary policy solely in the name of controlling inflation.

"Despite prolonged tight monetary conditions," it says, "inflation has not been effectively contained, proving that this tool has largely failed while inflicting serious damage on productive economic activities."

The trade body believes growth, employment and investment cannot be revived under an excessively restrictive monetary regime. "We look forward to the next elected government adopting a more pragmatic and growth-supportive policy framework coordinating the fiscal and monetary policy," it says, as the election is barely three days away now.

The benchmark index of the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) posted its strongest single-day gain of 2026 yesterday (9 February), as investors rushed to take early positions ahead of the national election, buoyed by growing optimism over political clarity and expectations of continued capital market reforms under the next government.

The DSEX jumped 1.58%, gaining 82 points to close at 5,311, marking the sharpest one-day rise this year. The rally brought the index close to its recent peak of 5,337, recorded on 8 October 2025, and reflected a decisive shift in investor sentiment after weeks of cautious trading.

Broad-Based Rally and Rising Turnover

Market breadth was overwhelmingly positive, with 327 advancing issues against 37 decliners, while 33 stocks remained unchanged. Turnover rose 35% to Tk646 crore, driven by participation from both retail and institutional investors.

The surge added around Tk3,300 crore to the Dhaka bourse's market capitalisation in a single session, highlighting renewed confidence in equities.

According to EBL Securities, investors were motivated by the opportunity to take early positions in momentum-driven and undervalued stocks, encouraged by expectations of a favorable market trend following improved political clarity. Buyers dominated trading from the outset, maintaining control throughout the day, leading to broad-based gains across sectors.

Analysts noted that the announcement of the election schedule and clearer signals from political parties on economic and market reforms encouraged investors to return to equities more decisively after a prolonged period of subdued sentiment.

Sector Highlights

Banking stocks led trading activity, accounting for 20.6% of total turnover, as investors bet on improved profitability and policy support. Pharmaceutical shares contributed 15.7%, while textile stocks made up 15.6%, indicating broad-based interest across key industrial sectors.

Minhaz Mannan Emon, director of the Dhaka Stock Exchange, told The Business Standard that reforms by the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) under the interim government have played a key role in rebuilding investor confidence. These initiatives include improving the quality of IPOs, strengthening market discipline, curbing manipulation through amended IPO, margin loan, and mutual fund rules, and taking action against major market manipulators.

Although earlier reforms did not trigger a sustained rally, investor sentiment has strengthened after the country's two major political parties separately addressed the capital market in their election manifestos, according to Ashequr Rahman, managing director of Midway Securities. Investors are hopeful that whichever party forms the government will honor commitments to market reforms, ensuring a more stable and predictable policy environment.

Top Gainers and Broad Participation

Trading activity centred on large-cap and actively traded stocks, with Simtex Industries, Asiatic Laboratories, Dhaka Bank, Islami Bank, and Bangladesh Shipping Corporation emerging as the top traded counters. Non-bank financial institutions led sectoral gains with a 2.6% rise, followed by textile and cement stocks, each advancing 2.4%.

Individual gainers included Sharp Industries, AB Bank, LankaBangla Finance, IFIC Bank, and Premier Bank, reflecting strong buying interest across manufacturing and financial sectors. Some profit-taking occurred in stocks like Islami Bank and Al-Arafah Islami Bank, as well as select mutual funds and industrial shares, causing minor price corrections.

Market participants said the broad-based nature of the rally indicates a healthy recovery rather than a narrow speculative surge confined to a few stocks.