Oil prices eased slightly on Tuesday as traders gauged the potential for supply disruptions after US guidance for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz kept attention squarely on tensions between Washington and Tehran.

Brent crude oil futures were down 18 cents, or 0.26%, at $68.85 a barrel by 0353 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude fell 21 cents, or 0.33%, to $64.15.

That's after prices rose more than 1% on Monday, when the US Department of Transportation's Maritime Administration advised US-flagged commercial vessels to stay as far from Iran's territorial waters as possible and to verbally decline Iranian forces permission to board if asked.

About a fifth of the oil consumed globally passes through the Strait of Hormuz between Oman and Iran, making any escalation in the area a major risk to global oil supplies.

Iran along with fellow OPEC members Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Iraq export most of their crude via the strait, mainly to Asia.

The guidance was issued despite Iran's top diplomat saying last week that Oman-mediated nuclear talks with the US were off to a "good start" and set to continue.

"While talks in Oman produced a cautiously positive tone, lingering uncertainty over potential escalation, sanctions tightening, or supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz has kept a modest risk premium intact," Tony Sycamore, an analyst at IG, wrote in a client note.

Meanwhile, the European Union has proposed extending its sanctions against Russia to include ports in Georgia and Indonesia that handle Russian oil, the first time the bloc would target ports in third countries, according to a proposal document reviewed by Reuters.

The move is part of efforts to tighten sanctions on Russian oil, a key source of revenue for Moscow, over the war in Ukraine.

Indian Oil Corp bought six million barrels of crude from West Africa and the Middle East, traders said, as the Asian country steered clear of Russian oil in New Delhi's push for a trade deal with Washington.

PRAN-RFL Group, a leading conglomerate in Bangladesh, is set to invest Tk 500 crore over the next three years to manufacture and market motorcycles and electric scooters.

The group aims to produce its own eco-friendly electric scooter brand, RYDO, while also taking over the manufacturing and distribution of the renowned Indian brand TVS in the local market, according to a press release.

The move is expected to create direct and indirect employment for 5,000 people.

A motorcycle assembly and manufacturing plant will soon be established at the Habiganj Industrial Park.

“Today, motorcycles and bicycles are not just modes of transportation for young people; they have become lifestyle products,” said RN Paul, managing director of RFL Group.

Under a recently signed memorandum of understanding (MoU), PRAN-RFL will invest Tk 400 crore in phases to produce “Made in Bangladesh” TVS motorcycles.

Mahmudur Rahman, chief operating officer of RFL’s bike business, said that marketing of TVS motorcycles will commence by the end of February, with full-scale production at the Habiganj factory starting within this year. The initial target is to produce 5,000 units a month.

RFL has already begun assembling RYDO scooters, which are electric vehicles, with an initial investment of Tk 50 crore.

“By 2027, we aim to offer high-quality RYDO electric scooters at around Tk 50,000,” Paul said, adding that the group plans to manufacture almost all components locally within the next year to ensure affordability.

To address charging infrastructure challenges, the group is installing fast-charging stations at its retail outlets in partnership with Glafit Bangladesh Limited.

The country’s motorcycle market is currently valued at Tk 7,000-Tk 8,000 crore, with annual growth of 16-17 percent. Industry experts expect national production capacity to reach one million units by 2027.

Bangladesh will purchase $3.5 billion of US agricultural products and $15 billion of energy products over 15 years, as part of a broader reciprocal trade agreement with Washington signed yesterday.

This procurement value will increase if the planned purchase of 14 Boeing jets by state-run Biman is taken into account.

The interim government this week said it is going to sign a deal with Boeing to purchase 14 planes valued at around Tk 30,000–35,000 crore ($2.46–2.87 billion).

“Bangladesh commits to provide significant preferential market access for US industrial and agricultural goods, including: chemicals; medical devices; machinery and motor vehicles and parts; information and communication technology (ICT) equipment; energy products; soy products; dairy products; beef; poultry; and tree nuts and fruit,” said a joint statement issued by the White House yesterday.

The US will cut reciprocal tariffs on Bangladeshi goods to 19 percent from the existing 20 percent, with some products eligible for a zero tariff rate.

A mechanism will also be introduced to allow a specified volume of Bangladeshi textiles and apparel to enter the US duty-free, linked to the export of American cotton and man-made fibre inputs, it said.

The agreement was signed after negotiations spanned more than nine months since April 2025, following the initial imposition of a 37 percent tariff by the US on Bangladesh’s exports to its markets.

The US is the single biggest market for Bangladesh’s exports.

The statement said the deal between the two nations builds upon the longstanding economic relationship, including the US-Bangladesh Trade and Investment Cooperation Forum Agreement (TICFA), signed in 2013.

As per the agreement, Dhaka has pledged to lower non-tariff barriers by recognising US vehicle safety standards, Food and Drug Administration (FDA) certificates for medical devices and pharmaceuticals, and removing restrictions on remanufactured goods. It will also digitalise customs procedures, permit free cross-border data transfers, and adopt good regulatory practices.

“The agreement commits Bangladesh to strengthen labour protections, enforce environmental laws, and adopt robust intellectual property standards, including provisions on geographical indications to safeguard US producers of cheese and meat.”

Washington, meanwhile, will consider financing investment in critical sectors through institutions such as the Export-Import Bank and the International Development Finance Corporation, it added.

“Bangladesh commits to a robust standard for intellectual property protection and enforcement, including ratifying or acceding to and fully implementing certain international intellectual property treaties,” the statement said.

The South Asian country has also committed to provisions on geographical indications that will preserve US market access, particularly for US cheese and meat producers who rely on the use of common names, it added.

The statement said both governments would “promptly finalise” the agreement and complete domestic formalities before it enters into force.

Bangladesh has agreed to abolish the long-standing requirement for non-life insurers to reinsure at least 50% of their business with state-owned Sadharan Bima Corporation (SBC), marking one of the most significant financial sector reforms embedded in the newly signed US-Bangladesh Agreement on Reciprocal Trade.

Under the existing regime, all non-life insurers are required to cede half of their reinsurance portfolio to SBC, effectively guaranteeing the state-owned reinsurer a steady stream of premium income.

The new trade deal commits Dhaka to removing this mandatory cession requirement, including for US insurers, opening the market to full competition.

The move represents a structural shift in Bangladesh's insurance and reinsurance architecture, which has for decades operated under a protectionist framework designed to shield the national reinsurer.

Industry insiders say the decision will liberalise the reinsurance market, allowing private and foreign reinsurers to compete freely without being forced to route business through SBC.

US insurers and global reinsurance firms are expected to be among the primary beneficiaries, while domestic insurers will gain greater flexibility in selecting reinsurance partners based on pricing, capacity and risk diversification.

However, the reform is likely to significantly erode SBC's dominant position.

The state-owned reinsurer has historically relied on compulsory cessions to secure predictable premium flows.

Without that guaranteed pipeline, it may face mounting competitive pressure to improve underwriting standards, pricing and operational efficiency.

The issue has already triggered concern within policy circles.

On 11 November last year, SBC sent a letter to the Financial Institutions Division of the Ministry of Finance warning against the removal of the mandatory reinsurance clause.

In the letter, the corporation argued that repealing the provision would allow local insurers to reinsure abroad without restriction, potentially leading to substantial foreign currency outflows.

It also cautioned that unrestricted overseas reinsurance could increase the risk of money laundering through premium payments.

Analysts say the foreign exchange dimension could be particularly sensitive at a time when Bangladesh continues to manage dollar shortages under an IMF-supported reform programme.

A larger share of reinsurance premiums paid overseas would inevitably add pressure on the balance of payments.

Supporters of the reform, however, argue that a competitive reinsurance market could strengthen risk management practices, improve service quality and enhance the overall resilience of the insurance sector.

Bank deposit growth in Bangladesh rose to 11.10% in December 2025, marking the highest rate in 50 months, driven largely by robust remittance inflows and higher deposit interest rates.

Bangladesh Bank data shows that total deposits in the banking sector stood at more than Tk19.73 lakh crore at the end of December 2025, up from Tk17.76 lakh crore a year earlier.

Managing directors of several banks have attributed the rise primarily to increased remittance inflows, despite persistent challenges such as high inflation, rising unemployment, subdued export earnings and sluggish private sector credit growth.

Syed Mahbubur Rahman, managing director & CEO of Mutual Trust Bank, told TBS that remittance growth had played a decisive role. "Despite rising unemployment and stagnant incomes, the volume of deposits has grown because remittances have increased," he said.

Sohail RK Hussain, managing director of Bank Asia, said public confidence in banks as a safe investment avenue also contributed to the growth. "When remittances come through banking channels, they are converted into taka, which increases the volume of deposits. Moreover, deposit interest rates are now higher than before," he said.

According to central bank data, remittance inflows reached $3.22 billion in December 2025, the third-highest monthly figure in the country's history, compared with $2.64 billion in December 2024. The highest-ever monthly remittance inflow was recorded in March 2025 at $3.29 billion.

Following the political transition in 2024, remittance flows through formal banking channels began to rise steadily.

A senior official of Bangladesh Bank said the central bank moved away from the 9-6 interest rate regime in mid-2024, after which both deposit and lending rates increased. Under the previous policy, depositors received relatively lower returns, but the shift has made bank deposits more attractive.

A treasury head at a private commercial bank said deposit rates currently range between 9% and 9.5%, which is above the prevailing inflation rate. At the same time, yields on treasury bills and bonds have declined, prompting individuals and institutions to park funds in bank deposits.

In September 2021, deposit growth stood at 11.26%. Thereafter, it declined steadily, remaining in single digits for 17 consecutive months before returning to double digits in August 2025.

Currency outside banks drops

Bangladesh Bank data also shows that currency outside the banking system declined slightly. As of December 2025, currency outside banks stood at Tk2.75 lakh crore, compared with Tk2.76 lakh crore in December 2024 – a decrease of over Tk1,000 crore.

In Bangladesh's largest export market, the European Union (EU), apparel unit prices fell 3.84% in 2025 compared to 2024, amid sluggish European demand and aggressive competition from major exporters like China and India.

Analysts say this surge was partly driven by US tariff barriers, pushing non-US shipments toward Europe.

Eurostat data, analysed by the Bangladesh Apparel Exchange, shows EU apparel imports grew 2.10% to €90 billion last year, driven by a 13.78% rise in volume, while average unit prices dropped 10.27%.

Bangladesh's apparel exports to the EU rose to €19.41 billion from €18.32 billion in 2024 – a 6% growth – but unit prices fell 3.84% as volumes outpaced value growth. December alone saw a 12% year-on-year drop in unit prices.

Fazlul Haque, managing director of Plummy Fashions, told The Business Standard, "Demand in Europe has not increased much, while due to higher tariffs in the US, countries like China are exporting less there and pushing more into the European market to offset losses. As a result, prices are falling, and we are also forced to sell at lower prices."

China's apparel exports to the EU rose 1.17% in value to €26.58 billion, despite a 9.38% fall in unit prices. Mohammad Abdur Razzaque, chairman of Research and Policy Integration for Development (RAPID), said, "Demand has not grown much as some European countries are under economic pressure. At the same time, US tariffs are pushing exporters into Europe, which is affecting prices."

He added that prices may recover slightly in the short term, but over the next two to three years, pressure is likely to return as India and Vietnam gain zero-tariff access under EU free trade agreements. Eurostat shows unit prices fell for almost all major exporters except Vietnam, whose exports rose 10% with a 4.51% unit price increase.

Nearly half of Bangladesh's apparel exports are destined for Europe. In FY2024-25, Bangladesh exported around $40 billion worth of ready-made garments to the global market.

As Ramadan approaches, prices of essential commodities, including fruits, vegetables, and protein items, are increasing in the kitchen markets of the capital, leaving consumers, particularly the low-income group, worried.

People fear that the prices may soar further as Ramadan will begin at the time when the interim government hands over the power to the BNP.

Lemon, one of the main ingredients for iftar to prepare juice, is now selling at what vendors call a "century" rate.

A visit to markets in Lalbagh, New Market, and Azimpur today revealed that the price of large lemons has jumped nearly 50% within a couple of weeks. A hali (four pieces) of large lemons is now selling for Tk110–120, up from Tk70–80 just a fortnight ago. Medium-sized lemons, previously priced at Tk50–60 per hali, have climbed to Tk80.

Explaining the price hike, Lalbagh's vendor Mamun Mia said the low supply due to off-season has hit the market, and only the trees that bear fruit year-round are providing lemons now.

Blaming the recent election-related transport restrictions for the hike, he said supply shrinks, and prices increase when perishable goods do not reach the market on time, insisting that the situation is temporary and prices will stabilise once the main season begins.

Shahida Begum, a homemaker shopping at New Market, said prices fall in other countries when Ramadan begins but it happens the opposite in Bangladesh. If transport runs a little less for two days, traders immediately raise prices.

As winter draws to a close, seasonal vegetables have grown costlier. Papaya has risen from Tk25 to Tk30 per kg. Bitter gourd has surged from Tk120 to Tk160, while okra has jumped from Tk80 to Tk120. Green chilies are selling at Tk120 per kg. Round eggplant stands at Tk80, and cucumbers at Tk60. Long eggplants — essential for preparing beguni, have increased by Tk10 to Tk60 per kg from Tk50.

However, bottle gourd has reduced to Tk60 from Tk50, and tomatoes Tk50 from Tk60. Potatoes remain stable at Tk20 per kg, cauliflower at Tk30, and hyacinth beans between Tk40 and Tk60.

On the other hand, Sonali chicken, once sold at Tk330 per kg, now sells at Tk350. Broiler chicken is Tk190. Beef has climbed sharply from Tk750 to Tk850 per kg. Among fish, rui, shing, koi, and pabda have risen by Tk20 to Tk 30 per kg, though other varieties remain stable.

Onions, sold for Tk50 on Friday, were Tk60 yesterday. Local garlic has reached Tk120 from Tk90–100, while imported one stands at Tk160. Chinese ginger is selling at Tk160, and the local variety at Tk130–140.

Khesari lentils have increased from Tk85–90 to Tk100 per kg. However, other pulses are stable, such as mung, masoor, and chickpeas. Sugar prices Tk100, gram flour at Tk80, and dried chili at Tk350 per kg. Isabgol husk is priced at Tk150 per 100 grams.

The price of pulao rice has gone up from Tk135 to Tk140 per kg, while other rice varieties remain steady: Miniket at Tk80, Atash at Tk60, and Pajam at Tk55. Loose soybean oil is selling at Tk200 per liter and loose mustard oil at Tk220.

Within a week, prices of dates have jumped Tk50–100 per kg depending on the variety. Despite a reduction in import duty from 25% to 15% last December — aimed at boosting imports and stabilising prices — market rates have climbed instead.

Currently, Zahidi dates are selling at Tk280 per kg, up from Tk250 a week ago. Boro'i items sell for Tk480–500, Dabbas at Tk500, Kalmi at Tk700 (up from Tk600), Sukkari at Tk800, Mabroom at Tk850–1,200, Mariam at Tk1, 100–1,400, and Medjool at Tk1, 200–1,500 per kg.

Besides, nearly all varieties of fruits have increased by Tk20–60 per kg within a week, with traders claiming heightened demand for Ramadan.

Apples are selling at Tk260–350 per kg, oranges at Tk240–350, malta at Tk250–280, white grapes at Tk520–550, black grapes at Tk550–600, and pomegranates at Tk450–550.

Arif Majumdar, a fruit trader at New Market, said dealers have hiked prices in anticipation of Ramadan. "Election-related disruptions also prevented some shipments from arriving.

Bangladesh Bank (BB) has fixed office hours from 9:30am to 4pm for all scheduled banks in the country during the month of Ramadan.

However, people will be allowed to make banking transactions from 9:30am to 2:30pm, according to a circular issued by the central bank today (10 February).

For bank staff, there will be a break of 15 minutes from 1:15pm to 1:30pm for Zuhr prayers.

The office and banking hours will return to the earlier time after Ramadan, said the BB's notice.

Experts have warned that Bangladesh's newly signed reciprocal tariff agreement with the United States sharply limits its ability to enter trade deals with countries such as China or Russia.

They said the pact includes a clause barring Bangladesh from concluding agreements with any "non-market economy", with violations risking the reimposition of a 37% reciprocal tariff first imposed by Washington in April last year.

The agreement states: "If Bangladesh enters into a new bilateral free trade agreement or preferential economic agreement with a non-market country that undermines this Agreement, the United States may, if consultations fail, terminate this Agreement and reimpose the applicable reciprocal tariff rate."

The US-classified non-market economies include China, Russia, Vietnam, Belarus, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Moldova and Azerbaijan.

Bangladesh has to raise US defence imports under trade deal. Find out what else the agreement says

Trade analysts said the clause could also block Bangladesh's entry into the world's largest trade bloc, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, as China is a member and accession would require separate agreements with all members.

They added that Bangladesh's current trajectory of engagement with China may no longer be viable.

Former WTO Cell director Md Hafizur Rahman and former Bangladesh Trade and Tariff Commission member Mostafa Abid Khan shared these views with TBS while analysing the agreement.

Commerce Adviser Sk Bashir Uddin and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer signed the deal in Washington on 9 February. Under the pact, the reciprocal tariff on Bangladeshi exports has been lowered to 19%, while garments made from US cotton and synthetic fibres will qualify for zero reciprocal duty.

However, much of the 32-page text released by the Office of the US Trade Representative sets out obligations Bangladesh must meet to access limited tariff relief, they said.

A close reading shows that while most US tariffs remain intact, Bangladesh has agreed to eliminate or sharply reduce customs duties on most US product categories. Some goods will receive duty-free access immediately, while others will see tariffs halved and fully phased out within five to ten years.

"….customs duties on originating goods provided for in the items in staging category EIF shall be eliminated entirely, and these goods shall be duty-free on the date of entry into force of this Agreement…customs duties on originating goods provided for in the items in staging category A shall remain zero," reads the document, without specifying items under those categories.

The agreement is expected to take effect 60 days after both sides complete their legal procedures.

Potential impact on investment

The agreement allows the US to take action against companies operating in Bangladesh if they export goods to the US at below-market prices. It also permits action if a foreign firm exports to third countries at below-market rates and a US company claims injury as a result.

Hafizur said this could deter investors, particularly from China and other countries, who view Bangladesh as a low-cost production base for exports to the US.

Asked how "market rate" would be defined, Abid said the US would determine it, recalling that past anti-dumping cases used production costs plus a 20% profit margin.

Revenue collection, intellectual property

The agreement is expected to boost Bangladesh's garment exports by granting zero reciprocal tariffs on apparel made from US cotton. India and Pakistan, which rely on domestic cotton, will not receive similar benefits, potentially giving Bangladesh an edge.

The US will offer tariff concessions on 6,710 products, while Bangladesh will benefit on 1,638 items.

Hafizur said the US has cut duties on its exports by 50%, leaving only VAT and advance income tax, which could reduce Bangladesh's revenue and weaken protection for domestic industries.

On intellectual property, Bangladesh must accede to 13 treaties outside the WTO framework, a process both experts said would pose significant legal and economic challenges.

Reciprocal tariff deal with US allows exit with notice: Commerce adviser

Regulatory and labour obligations

Bangladesh has agreed to remove non-tariff barriers, licensing requirements and restrictions on US products, accept US certifications unilaterally, and comply with safety and emissions standards set by agencies such as the FDA.

It must also ease barriers for reinsurers, expand freedom of association for workers, resolve criminal cases against factory workers, establish a minimum wage review mechanism, and strengthen IP enforcement.

Bangladesh will also have to ratify or accede to a dozen global conventions, including the Berne Convention, within three to five years.

Commercial purchases for Bangladesh

Commercial purchase deals under the agreement include Bangladesh's acquisition of 14 Boeing aircraft, with an option to buy more, a long-term offtake of US liquefied natural gas valued at an estimated $15 billion over 15 years, procurement of at least 700,000 tonnes of wheat per year for five years, 2.6 million tonnes or $1.25 billion worth of soy and soy products over one year, and cotton worth $3.5 billion.

Regarding the Boeing aircraft, Commerce Adviser Sk Bashir Uddin told journalists that Bangladesh would spend between TK30,000 and 35,000 crore to purchase them, payable over 20 years, averaging roughly Tk1,500 crore per year.

Bangladesh to sign reciprocal tariff trade deal with US today

Security clauses

While protecting US business, Bangladesh must take precautions in trades with countries that face US economic or national security concerns.

The agreement states: "Bangladesh shall adopt or maintain a complementary restrictive measure, in accordance with its laws and regulations, in support of the US measure" if the US imposes a "border measure or other trade action" to protect its economic or national security.

The deal restricts Bangladesh's defence purchases. "Bangladesh shall endeavour to increase purchases of US military equipment and limit military equipment purchases from certain countries."

It also dictates which countries Bangladesh should do business with: "Bangladesh shall adopt measures to encourage shipbuilding and shipping by market economy countries."

Facilitating US investment

The deal also facilitates US direct investment in exploration and mining of critical minerals and energy resources in Bangladesh, as well as in power generation, telecommunications, transportation, and infrastructure, on terms no less favourable than those offered to local investors.

The agreement requires Bangladesh to stop subsidising state-owned enterprises producing commercial goods that may discriminate against US goods and services.

Bangladesh agrees to do all these to get some tariff relief in exchange for helping the US minimize its trade gap – roughly $6.1 billion in 2024 – with Bangladesh.

Limited tariff benefits

In return, the US has pledged to create a mechanism allowing a limited volume of Bangladeshi apparel and textile exports to enter duty-free, linked to the use of US cotton and man-made fibres.

Other Bangladeshi goods will face an additional ad valorem duty capped at 19%.

The White House said the agreement builds on the 2013 Trade and Investment Cooperation Forum Agreement and would provide "unprecedented access" to each other's markets.

USTR Jamieson Greer said the deal marked "a meaningful step forward" in opening markets and creating new opportunities for American exporters.

PRAN-RFL Group has entered Bangladesh's motorcycle market with a plan to invest around Tk500 crore over the next three years, aiming to set up a manufacturing and assembly facility at the Habiganj Industrial Park and create direct and indirect employment for about 5,000 people.

The country's leading conglomerate will operate in both conventional motorcycles and electric two-wheelers, combining the manufacturing and marketing of its own electric scooter brand, RYDO, with the local production and distribution of motorcycles under the popular TVS brand.

According to company officials, work on establishing the Habiganj plant will begin soon. Alongside manufacturing, PRAN-RFL will invest in building a modern nationwide marketing network and strengthening after-sales services, a segment industry insiders say is critical to sustaining growth in Bangladesh's competitive two-wheeler market.

PRAN-RFL has already started manufacturing and marketing RYDO electric scooters at its Habiganj facility, employing around 1,000 people directly. Once the factory reaches full capacity, another 1,000 direct jobs will be created, while an estimated 3,000 more positions are expected through suppliers, distributors and service centres.

RN Paul, managing director of PRAN-RFL Group, said the decision reflects changing consumer preferences, particularly among young people. "Motorcycles and bicycles are no longer just modes of transportation; they have become lifestyle products," he said, noting that PRAN-RFL's long experience in producing and marketing affordable bicycles provided a foundation for entering the motorcycle and electric scooter segments.

Taking over TVS operations

As part of its expansion, PRAN-RFL has taken over TVS motorcycles in Bangladesh under a recently signed memorandum of understanding between the two companies.

Paul said TVS motorcycles would soon be produced locally as "Made in Bangladesh" products at the Habiganj factory.

An investment of around Tk400 crore will be made in phases for TVS production, with technical support from the Indian manufacturer.

"Through new models, improved braking systems and better after-sales service, we aim to bring this brand back to the top," Paul said.

Mahmudur Rahman, chief operating officer of RFL's bike business, said marketing of TVS motorcycles through PRAN-RFL's network will begin by the end of February, while full-scale production at Habiganj is expected to start within this year. Initially, the factory will produce about 5,000 units per month, with plans to double capacity through expansion.

TVS Motor Company, one of India's leading motorcycle manufacturers, has had a visible presence in Bangladesh's two-wheeler market for years, with models such as the TVS Star City Plus, TVS Apache series and commuter bikes being popular among urban and rural riders alike.

Until recently, the brand's motorcycles were imported and distributed locally by Rangs Motors. However, fragmented distribution and inconsistent after-sales support have limited TVS's competitive edge against rivals with deeper retail networks. With PRAN-RFL now taking over marketing and future local production, the brand aims to strengthen its foothold in Bangladesh through expanded distribution.

Strong push for electric scooters

PRAN-RFL is placing particular emphasis on electric scooters, viewing them as vehicles of the future amid rising fuel costs and environmental concerns. Paul said electric scooters are already widely used in India, China and Vietnam, and Bangladesh has strong demand potential, although high prices have constrained growth.

By 2027, the company aims to offer RYDO electric scooters at around Tk50,000, targeting mass-market adoption. Production and assembly of RYDO scooters have already started at Habiganj with an initial investment of Tk50 crore. Currently, about 20% of components are manufactured locally, with plans to increase localisation to nearly 100% within a year through an additional Tk50 crore investment.

Mahmudur said the factory is now producing around 500 RYDO scooters per month, which will rise to 3,000 units once operations are fully scaled up.

Charging infrastructure remains a key challenge for electric two-wheelers. Addressing this, Paul said PRAN-RFL is installing fast-charging stations at its retail outlets in partnership with Japan-backed startup Glafit Bangladesh Limited, an initiative expected to support wider EV adoption.

Backward linkage push, steady growth strategy

Industry insiders estimate Bangladesh's motorcycle market at Tk7,000-8,000 crore, growing at 16-17% annually. Nearly 99% of motorcycles sold in the country are locally manufactured or assembled, driven by favourable government policies and rising urban and semi-urban mobility needs.

Motorcycle sales have nearly doubled over the past decade, rising from fewer than 2,00,000 units in 2015 to around 4,00,000 units annually. By 2027, industry capacity is expected to reach one million units.

PRAN-RFL also sees strong potential in backward linkage industries. Paul said components such as drive chains, seats, stands, wheels and batteries can be manufactured locally, leveraging RFL's experience in plastics, metal and consumer goods manufacturing.

Company officials said the first year will focus on stable growth, expanding dealer and service networks, and ensuring strong customer support, with a longer-term goal of emerging as a market leader in both conventional and electric two-wheelers.

Commerce Adviser Sheikh Bashir Uddin has said that Bangladesh can withdraw from the reciprocal tariff agreement signed with the United States by issuing a formal notice, should the next government choose to do so, as the deal includes an exit clause.

He disclosed the information at a press conference held at the Ministry of Commerce in the Secretariat today (10 February), a day after Bangladesh and the US signed the reciprocal tariff agreement.

The commerce adviser said the agreement contains a provision allowing either country to withdraw, if necessary, by serving an appropriate notice. "We were mindful of the next government while negotiating the deal. If a future government feels that the agreement is not suitable for any reason, this clause allows them to exit," he said.

Commerce Secretary Mahbubur Rahman said the agreement allows withdrawal with two months' notice, adding that the deal will come into force once both countries issue formal notifications.

On 2 April 2025, the United States imposed reciprocal tariffs on several countries at varying rates to reduce its trade deficit.

Initially, the Trump administration imposed a 37% reciprocal tariff on Bangladeshi products. After negotiations, the rate was reduced to 20% in August. Following nine months of talks, the two countries signed the agreement on 9 February, further reducing the reciprocal tariff to 19%.

Under the agreement, Bangladesh's main export item -- ready-made garments -- will enjoy zero reciprocal tariff if produced using US-origin cotton and man-made fibres.

At the press conference, the commerce adviser said Bangladesh exports goods worth around $8 billion to the US, and has a trade surplus of $6 billion. Overall, he said, the 19% reciprocal tariff will apply to only around 10% of Bangladesh's exports.

Noting that the US economy is worth $36 trillion, the adviser said its import demand is enormous, creating vast export opportunities for Bangladesh.

He also noted that Bangladesh imports agricultural products such as wheat, maize, and oilseeds worth around $15 billion annually, adding that the notion that Bangladesh is fully self-sufficient in food is incorrect.

Commerce Secretary Mahbubur Rahman said the US has introduced a tariff benefit called "Potential Tariff Adjustment for Partner Countries," which will take effect on the day the agreement comes into force. This benefit will apply to partner countries that have signed reciprocal tariff agreements with the US.

Under the scheme, the US has granted duty-free benefits on more than 2,500 items. Among products Bangladesh produces, pharmaceuticals top the list, meaning all medicines and pharmaceutical raw materials will enjoy duty-free access. Other eligible items include certain plastic products, aircraft parts, plywood, particle boards, agricultural products, and fishery items.

The commerce adviser said the agreement will significantly benefit the textile, spinning, and weaving sectors by enabling double-stage transformation. He added that while Bangladesh had pursued a free trade agreement (FTA) with the US, Washington was not interested in signing one.

The commerce secretary said the agreement initially did not include enforcement or exit clauses, but Bangladesh successfully negotiated their inclusion.

Responding to a question on whether the agreement includes provisions requiring Bangladesh to reduce imports from third countries or meet additional US demands, the commerce adviser said no such conditions were included.

The commerce secretary added that while such issues were initially raised, Bangladesh refused to accept them. "We made it clear during negotiations that we could not include any provisions that would create sensitivity or discrimination against other countries," he said.

Before the July uprising, the main index of the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) stood at 5,223 points, with a daily turnover of Tk208 crore. Investor confidence plummeted, and many withdrew from the market.

During this uncertain period, the responsibility of restoring stability fell on Khondkar Rashed Maksud, chairman of the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC).

Investors placed their trust in the commission, expecting substantial reforms to stabilise the market.

After the uprising, Maksud's commission saw the crisis as an opportunity to restore market discipline, increase transparency, and rebuild investor confidence. As part of active measures, a five-member special investigation committee was formed to probe irregularities and corruption in 12 listed companies, most of which had occurred during the previous government's tenure.

Based on the committee's findings, several companies, including Beximco, faced fines. However, these measures had a mixed impact, causing investor apprehension. Public protests demanding the chairman's resignation were held at Motijheel as confidence in the commission wavered.

During this period, the commission also withdrew floor prices set by the previous commission, though two companies retained their floor prices. Structurally, the BSEC introduced amendments to three key laws to strengthen the market framework. The Public Issue Rules amendments made the IPO process for new companies more transparent and verifiable.

Margin Rules amendments controlled investor leverage to reduce excessive trading risks. Mutual Fund Rules amendments tightened mutual fund management regulations to safeguard investor interests. These reforms were seen as crucial steps toward transparency, risk management, and rebuilding investor confidence.

However, the commission's refusal to approve long-term fund-raising led to the cancellation or withdrawal of 18 applications totaling nearly Tk1,000 crore. This hindered entrepreneurs from implementing business plans and delayed multiple projects. Additionally, 21 officials were temporarily suspended for breaching market discipline, creating anxiety within the regulatory workforce.

The interim government's chief adviser issued five directives to restore market stability. These included reducing government-owned multinational company shares in the market to increase liquidity, encouraging and incentivising large domestic private companies to get listed, completing market reforms within three months with foreign expert assistance to prevent manipulation, taking strict action against those involved in irregularities or manipulation, and encouraging heavily debt-dependent businesses to raise funds via bonds and equity instead of relying solely on bank loans. The current commission is working to implement these directives.

A finance ministry-formed committee recommended creating a Tk10,000 crore fund to boost liquidity in the capital market, alongside a Tk3,000 crore fund offering loans to small investors at a 4% interest rate.

The committee in its report also proposed raising institutional investors' share to 60% and encouraging participation through tax incentives, including tax-free dividend income up to Tk1 lakh. It further proposed cutting capital gains tax to 5%, offering a 20% tax rebate on asset-backed securities, and extending tax exemptions for mutual funds.

The report calls for broader capital market development, strengthening the BSEC, reinforcing the state-owned Investment Corporation of Bangladesh (ICB), and improving stock exchange governance.

The market remains volatile, with fluctuating indices, limited trading volume, and investor confidence yet to fully recover. Post-election, the market may see moderate stabilisation, but long-term recovery will require policy consistency and restored investor trust.

Overall, the period following the July uprising can be seen as a transformative phase for Bangladesh's stock market. BSEC's measures focused on strengthening structural foundations. Punitive actions, legal reforms, floor price withdrawals, and advisory directives aimed to ensure market transparency and discipline. Yet, political and economic challenges mean achieving full market stability and restoring investor confidence will remain a gradual process.

Leaders of the country's brokerage community have called on the newly elected government to demonstrate its commitment to capital market reform within the first 100 days in office, stressing that timely and decisive measures are crucial to restoring investor confidence and stabilising a fragile economy.

"We want to see what concrete measures the new government takes within its first 100 days to develop the capital market in line with its election manifesto," said Saiful Islam, president of the DSE Brokers Association of Bangladesh (DBA), in a conversation with The Business Standard.

The oath-taking of the newly elected members of parliament and the cabinet members of the new government is likely to take place on Monday or Tuesday.

The Election Commission issued a gazette notification on Friday for the 13th parliamentary election, officially confirming the winners for 297 out of 299 seats where polling had been held.

The BNP secured 209 seats in the 12 February polls while Jamaat-e-Islami secured 68 seats.

Saiful Islam clarified that market participants' expectations are not limited to short-term actions. "Our expectations are not for the short term, but for the next five years. The BNP chairperson himself said at a press conference on Saturday that they are going to assume responsibility at a fragile time for the economy," Saiful said.

According to him, to steer both the fragile economy and the battered capital market towards recovery, the new BNP-led government must embark on a path of massive development. "We want to see clear initiatives and a roadmap for economic and capital market development within the first 100 days," he added.

Minhaz Mannan Emon, director of the Dhaka Stock Exchange, echoed similar sentiments. He said that in response to long-standing investor demands, the BNP included a specific roadmap for capital market development in its election manifesto.

"Investors now want to see the successful implementation of that roadmap," he said.

Emon alleged that during the past 15 to 17 years under what he described as a "fascist government," the capital market was subject to widespread plundering and mismanagement.

"The market was pushed to the brink of destruction," he said, adding that thousands of investors were rendered financially devastated during this period.

He noted that affected and nearly bankrupt investors now have high expectations from the new government. "There are strong hopes and aspirations among affected investors. We want to see the successful implementation of the commitments made toward the stock market," Emon said.

He further urged the incoming administration to continue the reform initiatives undertaken by the interim government in the capital market. "At the same time, good governance and discipline must be restored in the market to encourage investors to return."

Emon also stressed the importance of merit-based appointments at the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission. He said the new government should appoint the BSEC chairman and commissioners based on qualifications rather than political considerations.

"The stock exchanges should be allowed to operate independently without interference. The media must also be able to function freely so that it can report on manipulation, irregularities and corruption. This will enhance transparency in the stock market," he said.

Echoing Emon's concerns, Saiful Islam said he expects the new government to overhaul the BSEC and appoint honest and competent individuals. He pointed out that policy inconsistency and a lack of coordination among regulators have significantly harmed investors.

Citing an example, Saiful said that at one stage it was announced that nine non-bank financial institutions would be liquidated, but later the number was revised to six. "Because of such inconsistency, investors have lost hundreds of crores of taka," he said.

He described policy inconsistency and non-cooperation among regulators as very serious issues. "We hope the new government will take responsibility and resolve these problems," he said, adding that the administration should work closely with the stock market to ensure its sustainable development.

Market stakeholders have identified several persistent challenges facing the capital market. Regulatory reforms remain stalled, while the supply side has weakened significantly, with virtually no new initial public offerings in the past three years.

Governance and transparency have yet to improve meaningfully, and foreign investment participation remains low. In addition, a lack of effective coordination among regulators and frequent policy reversals has further eroded investor confidence.

Despite these structural weaknesses, the market showed a strong rally in the two trading sessions leading up to the national election. The benchmark DSEX index gained 170 points to reach 5,399, while market capitalisation rose by Tk9,800 crore. Daily turnover climbed to Tk790 crore, marking a four-month high.

Market participants believe this rally reflects optimism surrounding political stability and expectations of reform under the new government. However, brokers and exchange officials caution that without swift and visible policy actions, the renewed momentum may prove short-lived.

Bangladesh Bank Governor Ahsan H Mansur yesterday said that without effective implementation of good governance, meaningful results cannot be achieved in the insurance sector, stressing that accountability must be ensured across regulators, insurers and all stakeholders.

He made the remarks while speaking as the chief guest at the launching ceremony of the Insurance Development and Regulatory Authority's (IDRA) new website and digital insurance manual at the BIAM Foundation auditorium in the capital.

Mansur said the central bank would provide necessary support from the banking sector, but warned that the market cannot be allowed to function without oversight.

"There are comprehensive governance conditions. If these conditions are not fulfilled, desired outcomes will not be achieved," he said, adding that while the market may move at its own pace, regulators will not allow it to operate independently without responsibility.

Highlighting long-standing weaknesses in the insurance industry, the governor said investment, accounting and premium collection had taken place in many cases, but customer liabilities were not being paid due to poor fund management. He instructed chief executive officers and chief financial officers of insurance companies to manage funds properly so that claims and liabilities can be met on time.

The programme was presided over by IDRA Chairman M Aslam Alam. Special guests included Kazi Sakhawat Hossain Lintu, vice-president of the Bangladesh Insurance Association, BM Yusuf Ali, president of the Bangladesh Insurance Forum.

Mansur formally unveiled the upgraded IDRA website and the digital insurance manual, describing the initiative as a crucial step in restoring discipline and transparency in the sector.

He said reforms were the only way to rescue the insurance industry, which has long been plagued by governance failures, weak compliance and low public trust.

He also noted that Bangladesh's insurance sector remains small relative to the size of the economy, limiting its contribution to GDP.

The governor said the government can take certain initiatives, but product development and market expansion largely depend on private-sector participation. He emphasised that insurance coverage can be extended to both movable and immovable assets, and urged coordinated efforts to expand the market, warning that without growth the sector would remain constrained.

He also called on insurers to actively provide data through the regulator's new digital platform, cautioning that digitisation would be delayed without proper information flow.

Mansur encouraged insurers to move towards cashless transactions, saying reduced cash use would help increase government revenue. Bangladesh Bank, he added, would support this transition, while IDRA would prepare guidelines to ensure premiums are deposited through banks.

Concluding his speech, the governor said the sector had lost its way by prioritising short-term profits and must now be rebuilt as a productive and trustworthy industry.

IDRA Chairman M Aslam Alam said the digital insurance manual compiles all relevant laws, rules, regulations and circulars in an accessible format. Available as an e-book, HTML version and downloadable PDF, the manual is designed to be user-friendly.

He said if reforms are implemented properly, the insurance sector could see significant progress within five years, but warned that failure to act would deepen existing problems.

The World Bank (WB) has approved $370 million in financing to improve sanitation and solid waste management services to reduce water pollution and restore rivers and canals in and around Dhaka.

The Metro Dhaka Water Security and Resilience Program aims to strengthen the capacity of local and national institutions to curb pollution in greater Dhaka, a region that generates one-third of the country’s GDP and half of its formal employment, according to a press release.

The program introduces a results-based system to help city corporations and the Dhaka Water Supply and Sewerage Authority (Wasa) deliver measurable improvements.

It is expected to provide safely managed sanitation services to 550,000 people and improve solid waste management to 500,000 people, focusing on communities most affected by service gaps.

“Waterbodies are the lifeline for millions of people in greater Dhaka. But rapid, unplanned urbanisation and industrial growth have outpaced the city's capacity to manage wastewater and pollution,” said Jean Pesme, World Bank division director for Bangladesh and Bhutan.

Currently, only about 20 percent of Dhaka residents have piped sewer connections, while over 80 percent of untreated wastewater is discharged into waterways. More than half of the city’s canals have disappeared or remain clogged.

The industrial sector also contributes significantly to the crisis. More than 7,000 factories release an estimated 2,400 million litres of untreated wastewater daily.

The program will mobilise private sector participation to scale up industrial effluent treatment and water reuse.

Harsh Goyal, WB senior water supply and sanitation specialist, said the phase will prioritise a comprehensive water quality index and digital real-time monitoring for four major Dhaka rivers.

The first phase will cover selected areas in Dhaka and Narayanganj, focusing on upgrading recycling systems and enforcing pollution-control measures to stop solid waste dumping and direct sewage discharge.

The Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) has reinstated two listed companies from the Z category to their respective categories after they completed the disbursement of declared dividends for the last fiscal year.

According to separate disclosures issued yesterday, textile manufacturer VFS Thread Dyeing Ltd has been upgraded to the B category, while pharmaceutical company Techno Drugs Ltd has been restored to the A category.

Both companies were earlier downgraded to the Z category for failing to disburse declared dividends within the stipulated timeframe.

Under DSE listing rules, listed companies are required to disburse dividends within 30 days of shareholder approval. In a directive issued in May 2024, the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) mandated that companies failing to pay at least 80% of the approved dividend within the specified time would be downgraded to the Z category.

VFS thread dyeing

VFS Thread Dyeing, which was listed on the bourse in 2018, was downgraded to the Z category on 24 September 2024 after failing to disburse its declared dividend for FY23 within the required timeframe.

The company declared no dividend for FY24. However, for FY25, its board announced a 0.25% cash dividend for general shareholders, excluding sponsors and directors. As per the declaration, general shareholders were entitled to receive Tk18.27 lakh as dividend.

Following approval at its annual general meeting (AGM) held on 30 December, the company completed the dividend disbursement. After receiving the dividend compliance report, the DSE upgraded VFS Thread Dyeing to the B category from the Z category, effective 15 February.

Techno drugs

Techno Drugs, which was listed in 2024, was downgraded to the Z category on 3 February for failing to disburse at least 80% of its approved dividend within the mandated timeframe.

For FY25, the company declared a 10% cash dividend for general shareholders, excluding sponsors and directors, amounting to Tk4.92 crore.

Although shareholders approved the dividend at the AGM held on 24 December, the company failed to complete the disbursement within one month.

Subsequently, after submitting the dividend compliance report to the DSE, the bourse reinstated Techno Drugs shares to the A category.

National Feed Mill Limited has recommended a marginal cash dividend of 0.10%—equivalent to 1 paisa per share—for the fiscal year ended 30 June 2025, marking its first dividend declaration in two years.

The decision comes after the company failed to recommend any dividend in the previous two fiscal years, a lapse that resulted in its classification under the Z-category, commonly known as junk stocks.

According to a price-sensitive statement filed with the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) today (10 February), the cash dividend will be payable only to general shareholders, excluding sponsors and directors.

The date, time and venue of the annual general meeting, along with the record date, will be announced later.

The company reported earnings per share of Tk0.03 for FY25, a notable improvement from a loss per share of Tk0.71 in the previous year. Its net asset value per share stood at Tk11.09 at the end of June 2025, slightly higher than Tk11.07 a year earlier, while net operating cash flow per share remained unchanged at Tk0.12.

The firm disclosed that its sponsors and directors hold 28.38 million shares out of a total of 93.36 million shares. As a result, the total cash dividend payable to general shareholders will amount to Tk6.49 lakh.

Despite the dividend announcement, investor sentiment remained cautious, with National Feed Mill's share price falling by 5.41% today to close at Tk14 at the DSE.

The company was listed on the stock exchanges in 2015 after raising Tk18 crore through an initial public offering, issuing 1.8 crore shares with a face value of Tk10 each. The IPO proceeds were primarily allocated to repaying loans and supporting business expansion.

According to the fund utilisation plan, 40% of the proceeds were allocated to repaying loans, 45% to expansion, 5% to working capital, and the rest to IPO-related expenses. The issue was managed by ICB Capital and PLFS Investments.

However, concerns over the company's financial health persists. In its audit opinion on the FY24 financial statements, auditor Islam Quazi Shafique & Co flagged discrepancies in reported long-term loans. While the company disclosed Tk63.51 crore in long-term borrowings, the auditor was able to verify only Tk61.55 crore, citing non-responses from banks to confirmation requests.

Meanwhile, sources said Bank Asia attempted to auction National Feed Mill's assets in June 2025 to recover defaulted loans amounting to Tk47 crore, but the effort failed. The development underscores the company's persistent financial strain despite its latest dividend declaration.

Gold prices rose more than 2 percent on Friday and were headed for a weekly gain as weaker-than-expected US inflation data reignited hopes for Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, offsetting concerns from stronger-than-expected jobs data earlier in the week.

Spot gold was up 2.1 percent at $5,022.06 per ounce as of 01:30 p.m. ET (1830 GMT), and up 1.2 percent so far this week. Bullion fell about 3 percent on Thursday, hitting its lowest in nearly a week.

US gold futures for April delivery settled about 2 percent higher at $5,046.30 per ounce.

“Gold, and particularly silver, is enjoying a relief rally after a mild January CPI reading eased nerves stoked by Wednesday’s strong employment report,” said Tai Wong, an independent metals trader.

CPI COMES IN LOWER THAN EXPECTED

Spot silver climbed 3.4 percent to $77.70 per ounce, snapping back from an 11 percent decline in the previous session. It was on track for a weekly loss of 0.3 percent. The US Consumer Price Index rose 0.2 percent in January, below economists’ expectations of a 0.3 percent increase, following an unrevised 0.3 percent gain in December, the Labor Department said.

Market participants currently anticipate a total of 63 basis points in rate cuts this year, with the first expected in July, according to data compiled by LSEG.

Non-yielding bullion tends to do well in low-interest-rate environments. Meanwhile, data on Wednesday showed the United States added 130,000 jobs in January, compared with analysts’ estimates of 70,000.

China’s gold demand stayed strong ahead of the Lunar New Year, while in India, the market flipped to a discount.

ANZ analysts raised their second-quarter gold forecast to $5,800/oz from $5,400, citing its appeal as an insurance asset, while noting that silver, though still supported by strong investment demand, may see its recent outperformance fade as industrial buyers balk at higher prices.

Finance Adviser Salehuddin Ahmed said that there are several complex issues involved in approving the proposal aimed at strengthening Bangladesh Bank’s (BB) autonomy, and that they will be handled by the elected government.

“These are difficult decisions. It is not the job of the interim government to make such decisions. The next government will decide on these matters,” he said after a meeting of the Advisory Committee on Government Procurement yesterday.

Autonomy of the central bank does not mean changing the governor’s status to minister status. It involves several internal issues, such as changing the composition of the board, including members from the private sector, and ensuring that no government bureaucrats remain.

When asked, the finance adviser assessed his own performance over the past 18 months at more than 70 out of 100.

“I am pragmatic about this. I don’t beat my own drum,” he said, noting that there were many things he wanted to do but could not.

“I started many initiatives, but could not complete them. That is why I definitely cannot give myself a full 100 marks.”

Regarding the separation of the National Board of Revenue (NBR), he said the process has been initiated, but could not be completed.

The interim government has no political agenda behind these reforms, he stressed. These reforms were undertaken in the public interest and must be carried forward by the next government.

Speaking about the overall economic situation, the adviser said the interim government inherited a collapsed economy and managed to bring it to a stable position, though many challenges remain.

Economic activity and trade must accelerate. Otherwise, employment will not increase. Reducing inflation remains a challenge and cannot be addressed through monetary policy alone -- improvements on the supply side are also necessary.

He added that the banking sector continues to face significant challenges, with deep-rooted problems requiring tough measures.

The BB governor has taken steps in this regard, which are praiseworthy, but “praise alone is not enough,” the adviser said. There is still a shortage of credit supply and a lack of depositor confidence in the banking sector, although confidence has partially returned.

Regarding small shareholders of the five merged banks, he said the finance ministry is working on ways to compensate their losses. The issue is quite complex, and options such as providing shares in the new banks or offering some form of financial compensation are being considered.

The gap between what Bangladesh buys and sells abroad, known as trade deficit, grew over 18 percent in the first half (H1) of the current fiscal year 2025-26, driven by rising imports and declining export earnings.

The country’s trade deficit ballooned to $11.55 billion in the six months through December 2025, up from $9.76 billion in the corresponding period a year earlier.

During the period, import bills rose 5 percent year-on-year to $33.67 billion, driven partly by pre-Ramadan purchasing, according to Balance of Payments (BoP) data released by the central bank.

Export earnings, meanwhile, slipped 0.9 percent to $22.12 billion.

Industry insiders expect the deficit to widen further in coming months as imports continue to rise while exports show no clear upward trend.

Global commodity prices remain stable for now, but any uptick would push import costs higher.

The solution, industry representatives argue, lies in diversifying into new export markets and products.

The broader balance of payments, however, shows a more encouraging trend. The current account deficit actually narrowed to $343 million from $518 million a year earlier.

The current account captures the net flow of funds into and out of the country, including payments for goods and services, income earned from overseas investments, and foreign aid. When imports exceed exports, or when outgoing payments for investment and aid are higher than incoming receipts, the account moves into deficit.

Meanwhile, the surplus in the financial account – which tracks cross-border flows related to investments, loans, aid, and other financial transactions – quadrupled to $2 billion from $525 million.

The surge in the financial account was buoyed by stronger net foreign direct investment, which climbed to $828 million from $553 million.

The net result is a $1.94 billion balance of payments surplus, reversing last year’s $467 million deficit.