A consistent theme in global oil markets since the US and Israel attacked Iran is that the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz will be short-lived, and therefore so will the disruption to the supply of crude and refined products.

That expectation has consistently been reflected in pricing for crude oil futures, which have risen sharply since ​the conflict began on February 28, but are still well short of the highs reached in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

In effect, the paper crude market has believed ‌US President Donald Trump’s slew of social media posts since the bombing started that the conflict will be short, and result in Iran accepting US terms for a peace deal.

The problem is that the reality on the ground doesn’t match the social media claims, and the longer the Strait of Hormuz remains closed the more severe the energy crisis will become, especially in Asia.

Brent crude futures fell 9.1 percent on April 17 to end at $90.38 a barrel in the wake of Trump’s post that the Strait of Hormuz was fully ​open. But they jumped 6.9 percent in early Asian trade on Monday to $96.59 when it became clear the waterway was still closed.

The latest round of optimism that the Strait of Hormuz would re-open began after a Trump social media post ​on April 17 that the waterway that carried as much as 20 percent of the world’s crude oil and refined product supply prior to the war was “fully open and ready for full passage.”

Trump’s assertion was even backed by elements within the Iranian government, but the optimism proved short-lived as Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps moved to keep the strait closed, given Trump’s decision to maintain a US ​naval blockade of Iranian ports.

There are several questions that the market should be asking about the current situation.

Does this mean that the Strait of Hormuz is now effectively being closed by the United States?

Would it re-open if Trump ended ​the blockade of Iranian ports?

Is there sufficient trust between the warring parties to accept a principle that the strait should be open to all?

Who is really in control in Iran, and are they willing to negotiate with a US administration that has a track record of abandoning agreements?

While these are issues for debate, the only fact that really matters is that the strait isn’t open and the risk of attack is likely to keep it that way for the hundreds of vessels waiting either side of the crucial waterway.

SUPPLY STRESS

In ​the meantime crude oil and refined product supply chains are becoming more stressed, especially in Asia, which was the destination for about 80 percent of all the shipments via the Strait of Hormuz prior to the conflict.

While crude futures have ​largely traded on the daily news flow and an underlying optimism that the conflict will be of a limited duration, physical oil and refined products have reflected a more dire near-term supply situation.

Refined products in the Asian trading hub of Singapore have ‌remained at extreme levels, with jet fuel ending at $204.13 a barrel on April 17, more than double the $93.45 close on February 27, the day before the war started.

Gasoil, the building block for diesel, ended at $145.27 a barrel on April 17, up 59 percent since the conflict started, although down from the record $199.89 hit on March 30.

The problem for Asia is that the worst of the supply crunch is probably still to come, as crude shipments into the region fall sharply.

Asia’s seaborne crude imports are estimated at 20.62 million barrels per day (bpd) in April, down from 22.36 million bpd in March, according to data compiled by commodity analysts Kpler. However, both March and April are well down on the 26.76 million bpd average for the ​three months prior to the attacks on Iran.

The situation ​is especially worrying for countries that are major refining centres and exporters of fuels to the region.

Singapore’s crude imports are forecast at 388,000 bpd in April, down from 715,000 bpd in March and 980,000 bpd in January.

South Korea’s crude imports are estimated at 1.68 million bpd in April, down from 2.24 million bpd in March and 2.74 million bpd in January.

Japan’s April imports are expected to be ​921,000 bpd, a drop from 1.63 million bpd in March and 2.16 million bpd in January.

Only India is bucking the trend, with April imports estimated by Kpler ​at 4.67 million bpd, up from 4.45 million bpd in March, but below January’s 5.15 million bpd.

India has been able to secure Russian oil to help offset the loss of barrels from the Middle East, with 1.64 million bpd arriving in April, up from 1.06 million bpd in February.

Notwithstanding India’s success in sourcing crude from other producers, the problem is that Asia’s supplies are coming under strain and it’s likely that refinery processing rates will have to be cut in coming weeks.

It is when the supply of refined ⁠products becomes more ​constrained that the real economic impact of Trump’s war of choice will be felt.

The question for the paper crude oil market is how ​long can it maintain the hope that the conflict will be over soon, when the reality seems to be heading in the other direction?

Finance authorities are set to seek Prime Minister's guidance as to how far the government can go in complying with the International Monetary Fund conditions to secure hard-term budget-support funds.

Finance Minister Amir Khasru Mahmud Chowdhury will lead his team at the consultation today with Prime Minister Tarek Rahman, officials say, as the IMF lending terms have seemingly outwitted negotiators.

A senior government official who attended last week's Spring Meetings in Washington says the decision has become increasingly complex as the current economic situation leaves little room to fully comply with all the IMF conditions.Global economy analysis

"It is now a political decision rather than an economic one -- whether the government will accept the IMF conditions," the official told The Financial Express.

Key IMF strings binding the release of the next two tranches from a lending package in June 2026 include withdrawal of subsidies, raising the tax-to-GDP ratio to 9.2 per cent, and adopting a market-based exchange rate.

Given the ongoing Middle East conflict, sluggish investment, rising fuel prices, persistent inflation, and a downward trend in exports, the government is unlikely to take any drastic measures in the upcoming budget, the official adds.

"We have found the IMF quite rigid on its conditions this time. It wants the withdrawal of all tax exemptions and the introduction of a single VAT rate, which appears difficult to implement under current circumstances," the official notes.

However, IMF officials have urged the government to undertake reforms early in its tenure to minimize future challenges.

Officials at the National Board of Revenue (NBR) say achieving a tax-to-GDP ratio of 9.2 per cent by FY2026-27 would require an additional Tk 2.0 trillion in revenue collection within the next year.Politics

At a recent coordination council meeting, the government set an NBR revenue target of Tk 6.04 trillion -- an increase by nearly Tk 1.0 trillion from the current fiscal year.

However, the revenue officials fear a revenue shortfall of around Tk 1.0 trillion in the ongoing fiscal year.

Until February, the NBR had collected Tk 2.51 trillion, roughly 50 per cent of the revised target of Tk 5.03 trillion.

Government insiders say the situation has become more complicated as the IMF has taken a firm stance on three key issues that the Ministry of Finance cannot decide on its own.

External financing from multilateral development partners largely depends on IMF assessments and approval. Following the IMF meetings, the NBR chairman held an emergency meeting Sunday to assess the feasibility of complying with the dos.

A senior NBR official has told the FE that achieving the targeted increase in the tax-GDP ratio -- from the current 6.5 per cent to 9.2 per cent -- would require around 50 per cent growth in tax revenue.

"We find these conditions difficult to implement in the current economic environment," the official says.

He adds that scrapping time-bound tax exemptions may not be legally feasible either, while withdrawing subsidies is not practical at a time when the economy is under strain due to the impact of the Mideast conflict.Financial news subscription

"The economy does not have the capacity to absorb a complete withdrawal of tax exemptions at this stage."

However, the IMF has advised the government to implement difficult reforms early in its tenure for long-term economic stability.

"We cannot increase revenue overnight simply by curbing tax evasion or recovering arrears," the NBR official says in clear terms.

The revenue board is currently conducting intensive internal assessments to evaluate the potential impact of implementing the IMF conditions.

Dr Fahmida Khatun, executive director of the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), suggests the government should prepare a roadmap to implement IMF conditions.

She, however, finds it difficult to implement all conditions by next year, such as withdrawal of all tax exemptions.

"We need IMF funds but the government needs to be cautious as economy is not prepared now to absorb the pressure," she adds.Banking sector news

There are many sectors that need tax benefits and fiscal support to grow, she notes.

The capital market extended its losing streak for a second consecutive session today (20 April) as investor confidence remained under significant pressure.

A combination of domestic macroeconomic shifts and geopolitical uncertainty continues to weigh on the bourse, with the benchmark DSEX index of the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) plunging by 15 points to settle at 5,232.

The blue-chip DS30 index followed a similar trajectory, dropping 10 points to close at 1,980, reflecting a cautious risk-off sentiment among both retail and institutional participants.

Market analysts at EBL Securities said in their daily review that the recent adjustment in domestic fuel prices has rekindled concerns over rising production costs and broader inflationary pressures in the economy. This domestic factor, coupled with persistent uncertainty surrounding ceasefire negotiations in the Middle East conflict, has significantly dampened the risk appetite of investors.

The broad-based selling pressure resulted in a substantial erosion of the market's total valuation, with the market capitalisation of the premier bourse dropping by approximately Tk3,000 crore in a single day.

The trading session was characterised by persistent volatility from the opening bell. While buyers made sporadic attempts to reverse the downward trend during the mid-session, the recovery efforts were ultimately overwhelmed by an intensifying wave of selling, according to the EBL Securities.

By the end of the day, the market breadth remained heavily skewed toward the bears, as 207 issues declined compared to 120 advancing, while 62 securities remained unchanged. Despite the fall in prices, market activity saw a slight uptick, with total turnover on the DSE inching up to Tk824 crore.

On the sectoral front, the engineering sector continued to lead the turnover chart, accounting for 17.5% of the day's total trading volume. This was followed by the textile sector at 14.8% and the pharmaceutical sector at 11.8%.

Performance across most sectors remained weak, led by a 1.2% drop in travel and leisure, while jute and cement each declined by 1.0%. In contrast, services and real estate stood out with a 1.5% gain, and tannery and textile posted modest gains.

Several high-cap and influential stocks exerted significant downward pressure on the index during the session, with Islami Bank, Square Pharmaceuticals, City Bank, IDLC Finance, and Uttara Bank emerging as the key contributors to the DSEX's decline.

In terms of liquidity and trading volume, Summit Alliance Port emerged as the most traded stock, followed by City Bank, Dominage Steel, Acme Pesticides, and Khan Brothers PP Woven Bag.

Among individual performers, Nahee Aluminum topped the gainers' list by hitting the 10% upper circuit limit, followed by Evince Textiles and Coppertech Industries. On the losing end, IDLC Finance was the top loser with a 7.75% decline, followed by Hamid Fabrics and several non-bank financial institutions including Fareast Finance, International Leasing, and Premier Leasing.

The bearish sentiment was mirrored at the Chittagong Stock Exchange (CSE), where both key indices ended in the red.

The CSCX declined by 11 points to reach 9,023, while the CASPI shed 27 points to close the day at 14,724. Turnover at the port city bourse also saw a decline, settling at Tk34 crore.

The Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission has approved a proposal by state-owned Titas Gas Transmission and Distribution Company Limited to issue irredeemable, non-cumulative preference shares worth approximately Tk282.75 crore.

According to a disclosure on the Dhaka Stock Exchange today (20 April), Titas Gas will issue 282,747,469 preference shares at a face value and issue price of Tk10 each, amounting to Tk2,827,474,690. The shares will be issued in favour of the Finance Division of the Ministry of Finance.

Today, the company's share price closed at Tk17 on the DSE.

Titas Gas said the proposal was unanimously approved by shareholders at its 5th Extraordinary General Meeting (EGM) held on 24 December 2025. It was later submitted to the regulator, which granted approval on 15 April 2026.

The move aims to align the company's capital structure with equity support provided by the government. According to Titas, the government had injected a total of Tk282.75 crore into the company as equity up to 30 June 2023, which will now be formally converted into share capital through the issuance.

A committee comprising officials from the finance ministry, Titas Gas, and the Financial Reporting Council (FRC) had earlier, at a meeting on 16 April 2023, decided to issue irredeemable non-cumulative preference shares in favour of the government.

The structure is intended to offer flexibility to the financially strained company.

Under the proposed terms, the government will receive dividends on the preference shares when the company records profits, but no dividends will be paid in years when it incurs losses.

The irredeemable preference shares will remain on the company's books permanently without increasing its paid-up or common share capital, while their non-cumulative nature means Titas will not be required to pay any unpaid dividends from previous years to the government.

Unlike ordinary shares, preference shares do not confer ownership. Instead, they give holders priority over common shareholders in receiving dividends and claims in the event of liquidation. The committee has also set guidelines governing the issuance of such shares and dividend payments.

Financial performance

Titas Gas reported a narrowing of losses in the July-December period, supported by higher operational income and a lower tax deduction rate, which reduced its overall tax burden.

Total revenue rose to Tk19,072 crore during the period, up from Tk17,473 crore a year earlier. Despite the increase, the company posted a loss of Tk390.32 crore, significantly lower than the Tk711.44 crore loss recorded in the corresponding period.

Meanwhile, net operating cash flow per share (NOCFPS) stood at Tk6.07 at the end of December 2025, mainly due to higher payments for gas purchases compared with collections from gas sales.

The government currently holds 75% of Titas Gas's ordinary shares. Institutional investors own 14.95%, while foreign investors hold 0.03% and general investors 10.02%.

On 2 March 2020, the Financial Reporting Council directed that any capital received as share money deposit – included under equity but not refundable – must be converted into share capital within six months of receipt. Such amounts are also to be considered in the calculation of earnings per share.

The recent diesel price hike has made service providers increase charges for harvesting the largest rice crop, Boro, irrigating farmlands, and threshing the cash crop maize-- and farmers are struggling to cope.

Costs soared because of a 15 percent hike in the price of diesel, a key fuel used by nearly 15 lakh shallow tube well pumps to water the Boro fields.

Farmers in four haor districts of Sylhet also depend on nearly 1,500 combine harvesters -- run on diesel -- for bringing their crops home.

The government increased fuel prices on April 19 to cut subsidy payment pressure on the state coffers in the wake of increased import costs.

It coincides with a time when farmers have started harvesting Boro paddy, particularly in the Sylhet region, where a majority of the paddy fields require irrigation.

“Now machines are needed for harvesting and threshing paddy and shelling maize-- everything. With diesel price rising, all costs have gone up,” said Mozammel Haque, a farmer in Aditmari upazila of Lalmonirhat.

The 65-year-old farmer cultivated Boro paddy on 12 bighas and maize on 10 bighas this season. He harvested a portion of the ripened paddy using a diesel-powered harvester machine on Monday.

This year, he has to pay Tk 850 to Tk 900 to harvest the crop per bigha, up from Tk 750 to Tk 800 per bigha in the previous year.

“I am worried whether I would be able to recover my costs after selling the crops.”

In Sylhet, where Boro paddy is harvested early, thousands of farmers rely on combine harvesters for faster harvesting. But the cost of renting a combine harvester has doubled in some areas in the Haor.

The rate of harvesting paddy on one acre of farmland has jumped to Tk 7,500 this season, up from Tk 4,500 to Tk 5,000 in the previous Boro season.

Selim Raza Chowdhury, a farmer from Razapur Union in Sunamganj’s Dharmapasha upazila, said he offered up to Tk 12,000 to harvest one acre of his Boro paddy, and still could not manage to rent a combine harvester.

“With excessive rates and lower paddy prices in the market, it is becoming impossible for us to cover the harvesting and processing expenses,” he said.

Shahibur Rahman, a 55-year-old farmer in Rangpur sadar upazila, said the rent of harvesters and maize threshers increased within a single day of the diesel price hike.

While it costs an additional Tk 250 to Tk 300 per bigha to harvest paddy, for maize the hike is higher-- Tk 400 to Tk 450.

Sirajul Islam, a harvester operator in Aditmari upazila of Lalmonirhat, said about two litres of diesel are required to harvest paddy on one bigha of land.

“Even after standing in line at the pump, fuel is not available. Diesel price has also increased. We were compelled to raise the machine rent,” he said.

“In a few more days, when the full season of rice and maize harvesting begins, pressure will increase further.”

Maize thresher operator Rafiqul Islam from Kurigram, another northern district, has started charging Tk 200 to Tk 300 more than last year.

More than four litres of fuel are needed to thresh maize grown on one bigha of land, he said.

“Diesel price has gone up. There are labour costs too. This is also resulting in arguments with farmers.”

Farmer Ranju Mia of Kharjani Char in Gaibandha sadar upazila cultivated maize on 12 bighas of land, investing Tk 250,000.

Due to fertiliser and fuel shortages, the yield has been poor this year. Again, because of the sudden rise in fuel prices, threshing and transportation costs have increased, he said, fearing losses.

“There is no electricity in the char area, and the soil does not retain water. Frequent irrigation is needed. The amount of paddy we will get will not even cover the expenses,” said Ruhul Amin, another grower from Rasulpur Char in the Fulchhari upazila.

Apple shares declined less than 1% in late trading on Monday after the communications hardware firm said its chief executive, Tim Cook, would step down after nearly 15 years at the helm of the world's second most-valuable company. The decision by Cook, 65 years old, to step aside in favour of longtime Apple hardware chief John Ternus took Wall Street by surprise and will raise questions about whether the new chief can maintain the brisk pace set by his predecessor.

Cook will become executive chairman on 1 September as the iPhone maker gears up for industry change spurred by artificial intelligence. He succeeded Apple founder Steve Jobs when he took over and turned the firm into a global brand that churns out hundreds of millions of units annually. He will give way to a company insider known for his focus on design and product.

Apple said of Cook:

"Under Cook's leadership Apple has grown from a market capitalisation of approximately $350 billion to $4 trillion, representing a more than 1,000% increase, and yearly revenue has nearly quadrupled, from $108 billion in fiscal year 2011 to more than $416 billion in fiscal year 2025. ... Apple operates over 500 retail stores and has more than doubled the number of countries in which its customers can visit an Apple Store. During his tenure, Apple has grown by more than 100,000 team members and increased its active installed base to more than 2.5 billion devices."

The decision will guarantee Apple's next quarterly report, due a week from Thursday on 30 April, will be even more closely watched than usual.

Comments:

RICK MECKLER, PARTNER, CHERRY LANE INVESTMENTS, NEW VERNON, NEW JERSEY:

"Tim Cook did an amazing job. And I'm not surprised that the initial reaction is for the stock to be a little bit lower. But he will be executive chairman. I imagine he'll still be part of the larger strategy of the company.

"He has been an incredibly successful CEO coming into a situation that you thought would be hard to replace the person before. I hate to see him leave the CEO spot, as an investor."

ART HOGAN, CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST, B. RILEY WEALTH MANAGEMENT, BOSTON:

"He would never leave if the numbers were going to be bad, so I think that that's the important thing. They're about to report numbers, and you know they're going to be good. You know the guidance is going to be positive. And you know we're going to start hearing more about how they are going to use artificial intelligence to improve their products."

"He's been a transformational Apple CEO that's always had a steady hand at the wheel. I think that will be his legacy. He had massive shoes to step into, and he was the right person for the job. That's the way he'll be remembered."

TIM GHRISKEY, SENIOR PORTFOLIO STRATEGIST, INGALLS & SNYDER, NEW YORK:

"The company has done very well. And you know, its stock price, the value of the company, have increased dramatically. A lot of that is being in the right place at the right time, but I think they've made the right moves, and I think they've grown their user base.

"Earnings are upcoming, so he probably wanted to get it out there, so it didn't become an issue in the earnings."

JACOB BOURNE, ANALYST AT EMARKETER, NEW YORK:

"This transition shouldn't come as a shock, as Cook is at retirement age and Ternus has long been rumoured as the successor. Cook staying on as CEO through September before continuing as executive chairman should provide some degree of reassurance to investors even as markets react negatively to the near-term uncertainty.

"Cook successfully steered Apple through multiple periods of turbulence, and handing the reins over during another turbulent moment, which includes supply chain disruptions, tariffs and the AI race, is notable timing, though a fresh CEO also brings the opportunity for fresh solutions. Ternus' hardware engineering background signals that Apple's commitment to consumer hardware isn't going anywhere, even as the company works to close the gap on AI."

The refund system set up to allow companies to recover illegally collected tariffs from ​the US government went live yesterday (20 April) as thousands of companies rushed to file claims.

"So far, so good" - though the system is a little glitchy, said ‌Jay Foreman, CEO of toymaker Basic Fun, which had a team in its "war room" at its headquarters in Boca Raton, Florida, ready to start filing when the system went live at 8am US Eastern time (1300 GMT).

Foreman said the system didn't crash as some had feared it might under the onslaught of attempted submissions, but rather would sometimes not allow an upload and force them to retry. The company has over 500 files it ​needs to upload to the system, although the system permits these to be uploaded in batches.

"However, if you load too many or the system is too busy, it ​will kick them back," Foreman said in an email about how the process was working in the early moments. "We've got over 50% of ⁠our invoices loaded so far. We are hoping in the next few hours to have them all loaded. I'm very happy we got this process started early."

Companies contacted by Reuters in recent ​days expressed concerns about the durability of the new system, created by US Customs and Border Protection in response to a court order that it prepare to return up to $166 billion to importers.

"I'm ​relieved that the portal seems to be functioning properly," said Cassie Abel, CEO of Idaho-based outerwear company Wild Rye. Abel had her customs broker make the submission, which she said cost her $250 for the first phase of the filing.

The US Supreme Court in February struck down the tariffs President Donald Trump pursued under a law meant for use in national emergencies, handing the Republican president a stinging defeat.

In court filings, Customs officials said as ​of 9 April, some 56,497 importers had completed the necessary steps to receive electronic refunds, an amount totalling $127 billion, or more than three-quarters of the total eligible to be refunded. More ​than 330,000 importers paid the tariffs at issue on 53 million shipments of imported goods.

It's a European first for city streets and could lead to more near-autonomous vehicles on the continent.

It is unclear whether getting a refund claim into the portal as soon as possible will impact how quickly it's processed, ‌but many ⁠companies decided not to take the risk of waiting.

A CBP spokesman said on Friday they created a system that will "efficiently process refunds, pursuant to court order, for importers and brokers who paid" the duties.

Long battle over tariffs

Rick Woldenberg, CEO of educational toy maker Learning Resources, said he had heard some users experienced temporary crashes, but he wasn't among them. "I think it was sort of like everyone was lined up to get Taylor Swift tickets - they all hit the button at once," Woldenberg said.

Learning Resources, one of the plaintiffs in the lawsuit that led to the tariffs' undoing, ​is seeking some $10 million in refunds. The company ​has filed about 5,000 entries, and so ⁠far, the vast majority have been accepted.

Woldenberg voiced some frustration at having to file for reimbursement at all, saying: "They have a ruling from the Supreme Court that says they over-collected taxes, so why do I have to tell them to send it back?"

Still, he said he was ​impressed with how smoothly the system has run so far.

"The policies set at the top have nothing to do with the professionals who ​work in CBP, and those ⁠folks have done a good and earnest job," said Woldenberg.

Lynlee Brown, global trade partner at EY, said the firm's clients have largely seen the system accept most submissions without problem but that the first phase of submissions included easier ones that are less complex.

Brown said that once the entries are accepted by the system, they are then sent to a mass-processing phase that is supposed to automate ⁠the payment of ​refunds within 60 to 90 days. "If an origin comes up that looks fishy," she said, "that will probably go ​to a human for review."

This is the latest twist in a drawn-out battle over emergency tariffs collected over the past year as Trump seeks to restructure US trade relations. The constantly shifting tariffs roiled global business as companies rushed to ​move supply chains to avoid them as well as figure out who would ultimately pay the taxes.

Growing political instability and military tensions in the Middle East have started negatively impacting Bangladesh's export trade, and a prolonged crisis could also put significant pressure on vital remittance inflows.Politics

Commerce Minister Khandaker Abdul Muktadir sounds alarm in parliament in a reckoning of how the Mideast mayhem is affecting the country's external trade, remittance and fuel supply.

His statement came during a question-and-answer session in parliament on Monday, with Deputy Speaker Kaiser Kamal in the chair.

Responding to a query from ruling-party MP Shamsur Rahman Shimul Biswas, the minister warns that ongoing tensions involving Iran, Israel, and the United States could cast far-reaching implications on the global economy and trade, with Bangladesh unlikely to remain insulated. "The Middle East is an extremely important market for Bangladesh," he says, noting that countries such as the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Oman are key destinations for Bangladeshi exports, including ready-made garments, pharmaceuticals, frozen foods, and leather goods.

Instability has already driven up fuel prices, leading to higher import costs as well as increased shipping and insurance expenses.

"This is creating challenges such as reduced exports to Middle Eastern markets and rising commodity prices," the trade minister tells the lawmakers. To mitigate the impact, the government is working to reduce logistics costs and expand exports to countries less affected by the conflict.Bangladesh market report

In response to a separate question from SM Jahangir Hossain, another BNP member, the minister highlights Bangladesh's trade imbalance within the South Asian region. He states that Bangladesh runs trade deficits with all SAARC countries save Nepal, Sri Lanka and the Maldives.

The largest deficit is with India, amounting to $7.86 billion. Other deficits include $681 million with Pakistan, $10.71 million with Afghanistan, and $29.77 million with Bhutan.

In contrast, Bangladesh maintains trade surpluses with Nepal, Sri Lanka, and the Maldives.

Answering another question from Abul Kalam, the minister presents export- performance data, noting that export earnings reached US$55.19 billion in the 2024-25 fiscal year.

Meanwhile, in response to a question from independent MP Rumin Farhana, he says the government has taken steps to control inflation by eliminating duties on 110 products and reducing tariffs on 65 others.

Global finance leaders, whipsawed by Middle East war ​news, came to grips this past week with their inability to mitigate the economic damage from increasingly frequent geopolitical shocks, and a realization that counting on U.S. leadership to resolve crises is no longer ‌the guarantee it had long been.Finance committee reports

At International Monetary Fund and World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington, participants swung from gloom over a worsening global economic outlook due to deepening energy price and supply shocks to tentative optimism as it appeared Iran may reopen the Strait of Hormuz and allow flows of oil, gas, fertilizer and other commodities to resume.

By Saturday that optimism was already fading amid new attacks on shipping.

The IMF and the World Bank pledged up to a combined $150 billion in new financing assistance for developing countries hit hardest by the massive energy price shock, and celebrated ​their re-engagement with Venezuela’s acting government after a seven-year pause.

They warned countries not to hoard oil and not to go overboard with expensive and untargeted fuel price subsidies. But in the end, there was not much they ​could do but watch statements from Tehran and the White House.

“Actually some of the most important decisions on the global economy are not happening here,” Josh Lipsky, international economics chair ⁠at the Atlantic Council, said of the IMF and World Bank campus.

“The single most important development in the global economy happened between the U.S. and Iran,” he said. “We hope it’s good news, and we’ll wait and see.”Economy news updates

Despite buoyant stock markets ​and a sharp drop in oil futures prices on Friday, Saudi Arabia’s Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan summed up the mood of many officials when he said he would not be comfortable predicting an improved outlook until tankers start moving freely through the ​strait again with reasonably priced insurance and physical energy prices dropping.

“If the clear waters are open,” Al-Jadaan told a news conference, “I think that’s what would trigger, for me, a change in the scenario.”

As soon as the IMF released a mild cut in its global growth forecast for 2026 to 3.1% under the most optimistic of three scenarios it devised for the task, it said that was already outdated and that the global economy was drifting towards a more adverse growth scenario of just 2.5%. The fund’s latest World Economic Outlook said a prolonged war could push the ​global economy into recession.

SHOCK AFTER SHOCK

Before the U.S. and Israel launched attacks on Iran at the end of February, the global economy had just been recovering from last year’s shock from President Donald Trump’s wave of steep tariffs on global trading ​partners.

Discussions of trade tensions were more muted at this year’s meetings, as was Russia’s war on Ukraine, though G7 finance ministers pledged to keep up pressure on Russia.

But a constant drumbeat of shocks that started with the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine ‌in 2022 was ⁠teaching countries the U.S. is no longer “the general” of the international order and would not necessarily provide solutions, Lipsky said.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Friday launched an initiative calling for G20 countries, the IMF and World Bank to take coordinated action to ensure adequate access to fertilizers amid supply disruptions from Gulf countries. But seven weeks after the war’s start, that will do little to ease shortages and high prices for farmers now planting spring crops across the Northern Hemisphere.

Kevin Chika Urama, chief economist at the African Development Bank, said the Middle East crisis provided a fresh imperative for African countries to deepen regional trade and economic ties, work on alternative energy sources, expand their domestic tax bases, and tap into enormous natural gas reserves.

“Geopolitical tensions are ​the new normal and uncertainty in policymaking has become certain,” ​he told a panel with other chief economists from ⁠the multilateral institutions.

NOT OUR WAR

Finance ministers, central bankers and other officials attending the meetings expressed frustration at being thrust into another economic calamity by Trump’s actions.Finance committee reports

Behind closed doors, officials, particularly from Europe, sent a clear message to the U.S. that Washington needed to take action to reopen the strait, a senior finance official who attended the meetings said. In public, the comments ​were more diplomatic with less finger-pointing.

“The knot of this conflict is the Strait of Hormuz. We need this to open, but not at any price,” French Finance Minister Roland ​Lescure told reporters. “I don’t want to ⁠pay a dollar to go through the Strait of Hormuz.”

Successive shocks, including this war, have scrambled planning for developing economies “and you hardly have time to breathe,” Retselisitsoe Adelaide Matlanyane, Lesotho’s Minister of Finance and Development Planning, said during a panel of African ministers.

“For small, open, and vulnerable economies like Lesotho, these shocks have presented extraordinary pressures on the fiscals, on prices and on everything.”

Matlanyane said managing debt has now become very complex and the tensions have “brought on a sense that we have to rethink policy and we have to think differently.”

“It’s ⁠frustrating dealing with ​this,” she told Reuters.

For Thailand, a net energy importer that will host IMF and World Bank annual meetings in October, the lingering effects of ​destroyed Gulf oil and gas infrastructure will keep prices elevated for a long time, said Ekniti Nitithanprapas, deputy prime minister of Thailand.

But he said the crisis was an opportunity for Thailand to reduce its reliance on fossil fuels and boost the role of renewable energy, including solar farms - the opposite of ​Trump’s energy agenda.

“We need to commit to transform...to help people transform to face the new fragmented world and high oil prices,” Nitithanprapas said.

Economist Rehman Sobhan today (19 April) said Bangladesh's loan defaulters have become embedded in the political system and are now creating barriers to financial and institutional reforms.

"Loan defaulters have become part of the political structure. They themselves are obstructing reforms. So the problem is no longer person-specific, it is structural," he said on the final day of the three-day 9th South Asian Network on Economic Modeling (Sanem) Annual Economists' Conference in Dhaka.

"Reform is not merely about passing laws, but a continuous process requiring implementation, enforcement and measurable outcomes," he added at the session titled "Romancing the Reform: The Bangladesh Story", held in Dhaka today.

Sobhan said many reform efforts fail because governments do not follow through after legislation. "The first step of reform is enacting laws, followed by building the necessary administrative framework, ensuring proper enforcement and finally evaluating results."

The session was moderated by Sanem Executive Director Selim Raihan. The keynote paper was presented by CPD Distinguished Fellow Debapriya Bhattacharya, while former Finance Secretary and former Comptroller and Auditor General Mohammad Muslim Chowdhury served as designated discussant.

Debapriya said Bangladesh has pursued multiple reforms since independence but progress has been slowed by what he termed a "kleptocratic legacy" of corruption, misuse of public resources, weakened institutions and collusion among political, bureaucratic and business elites.

He said reforms often fail due to weak political ownership, poor implementation capacity, vested interests, lack of consultation, corruption, financing constraints and weak accountability.

Referring to the interim government, he said despite strong rhetoric, it failed to establish a coherent reform framework, lacked an integrated economic vision and did not create a real-time system for citizens to monitor progress.

Banking sector at center of crisis

Debapriya said the banking sector has become one of the clearest examples of how reform plans are derailed during implementation. He said rising non-performing loans (NPLs) are weighing heavily on the economy, while repeated attempts to restructure weak banks have been blocked by political resistance.

"The government has finally disclosed the names of major defaulters. But the real question is what to do with banks that have effectively collapsed," he said.

He also criticised amendments to the Bank Resolution Act, saying the changes created an opportunity for former owners of failed banks to regain influence by injecting a relatively small amount of money.

"This is seen as the comeback of oligarchs in a new form, with political patronage," he said, warning that such policy reversals send the wrong signal when depositors and investors need confidence.

He also criticised overlapping administrative control in the sector, saying governance reforms have been delayed for too long. "Good intentions are not enough. If banking reforms are delayed again, the cost to the economy will be much higher," he warned.

However, he welcomed promises of greater central bank autonomy, stronger supervision, action against defaulters and depositor protection, but questioned whether those commitments would be implemented.

Reform needs political commitment

Rehman Sobhan said political parties make major reform promises during elections, but it remains unclear whether they have the leadership or commitment to deliver them.

He said past reforms succeeded only when they had strong public support, citing the Six-Point Movement as an example of a widely backed reform agenda.

He added that such mobilisation is now weak, with parties failing to effectively communicate manifestos to voters. "In many cases, even party members do not properly know their own manifesto," he said.

Questioning the policy debate culture, Sobhan asked how many commentators have direct government experience, arguing that reform cannot be fully understood without working inside the state. "Without that experience, it is hard to know who supports reform, who resists it, and why it fails," he said.

Recalling his time at the Planning Commission, he said passing reform laws was not the main challenge.

Using police reform as an example, he said success should be measured by outcomes in practice. If accountability mechanisms are introduced, their effectiveness must be tested over time by citizens and journalists, he said. "That would be the real test of reform," he added.

Sobhan said many reform proposals promoted by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are not new, but have been discussed for decades under successive governments.

According to him, governments often show limited progress to unlock loan disbursements, while development partners also have an interest in showing money has been spent.

"What actually happens in the long run is rarely examined," he said.

Need for performance budgeting

Sobhan said he has repeatedly proposed performance-based budgeting to show citizens what outcomes are achieved through public spending. "At present, we only see expenditure figures, with little analysis of results," he said.

Referring to health and education, he said allocations are often underutilised even as complaints persist over inadequate budgets. "If allocated money is not spent properly, where is the real problem?" he asked.

Citing India, Sobhan said major reforms such as the right to food, education and work were driven by strong citizen movements. In Bangladesh, he said civil society remains fragmented and unable to build unified pressure for large-scale reform.

He described the democratic process as the ultimate test of reform, calling for free, fair and inclusive elections. "A government becomes truly accountable when it accepts the people's verdict."

Economist Debapriya Bhattacharya yesterday urged the government to explain the intention behind recent revisions to the Bank Resolution Act, which now allow former owners to regain control of five Islamic banks being merged amid a severe liquidity crisis due to past irregularities.

At a session of the annual economists’ conference at BRAC Centre Inn in Dhaka, he said political authorities must set out their position in parliament and issue a clear statement explaining their intent.

Earlier this month, the House passed the revised Bank Resolution Act 2026, paving the way for former owners of the merging banks to reclaim control under relatively easy terms. The move has been widely viewed as a reversal of the interim government’s banking reform drive.

Under the law, former directors or owners can reclaim control by paying 7.5 percent of the funds injected by the government or the Bangladesh Bank upfront. The remaining 92.5 percent is to be paid within two years at 10 percent simple interest.

“I have no problem with the policy itself, but I want clarity,” Debapriya said at the conference organised by the South Asian Network on Economic Modeling (Sanem).

He said, “Even the central bank governor has not given a statement on this. So, instead of relying on our own interpretations, the authorities must speak.”

Debapriya, convenor of the Citizen’s Platform for SDGs, Bangladesh, said, “I am worried. I have already said over the past couple of days that we need a political statement on this issue. We need a discussion in parliament.”

“What we are doing now, what you, I, and others are saying, is based on our goodwill, but it is still just interpretation,” he said.

“I believe in political interpretation backed by commitment. That commitment should ensure that past problems or actors do not return. And this issue is not limited to today; it will affect the media tomorrow, and then oil and LNG imports the day after. It extends beyond banking; it affects the entire economy,” he further said.

“We have seen such patterns before. That is why I am looking for a clear political explanation, and wondering why the political leadership is silent,” added Debapriya, also a distinguished fellow at the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD).

He said the situation highlights a broader failure to pursue meaningful reform. If reforms are delayed further and pushed into a Five-Year Plan, the approach would be misplaced.

“Unfortunately, although I am also a member of that planning committee, I must say that now is the time for consolidation and reform in order to move forward,” he said.

Without reforms, including stronger revenue generation, better public spending and balanced deficit financing, he asked where the economy would go.

He also referred to findings in a white paper on the economy published by the interim government, which highlighted how deals were struck between politicians and businesspeople, especially around the Prime Minister’s Office.

Businesspeople observed such arrangements and thought, “Why shouldn’t I have a share in this?” he said, adding that some then tried to cut transaction costs by becoming directly involved, including awarding contracts to family members. Eventually, some even entered parliament themselves.

On the capital market, he suggested including not only multinational companies but also state-owned enterprises.

This, the economist said, could achieve two goals at once: raising funds in the short term, even if it feels like selling family silver, and strengthening the quality of listed shares to make the market more vibrant.

Researchers, businesspeople, economists, trade analysts and students from home and abroad took part in the discussion, which was moderated by Selim Raihan, executive director of Sanem.

‘BANK DEFAULT NOW EMBEDDED IN FINANCIAL SYSTEM’

At the session, Professor Rehman Sobhan, chairman of CPD, said banking reforms have been discussed since the time of President Ziaur Rahman, yet major defaults began then and have continued through successive governments.

Although it was once suggested that defaulters should not contest elections, laws were later introduced allowing them to do so if they made a 5 percent down payment and rescheduled loans.

This has resulted in a large group of defaulters in parliament who, he said, help block meaningful reform.

The CPD chairman added that bank default has now become embedded in the structure of the financial system and cannot be addressed simply by targeting a few crony capitalists.

He said legislation alone is not enough. Reforms must be translated into operational measures implemented by the bureaucracy, with outcomes monitored on the ground.

Prof Rehman Sobhan added that an active opposition should work with civil society to act as a watchdog over reform implementation. Ultimately, he said, the government must show genuine intent and build accountability from the Prime Minister’s Office down to the field level.

He said the ultimate test of accountability lies in the government’s willingness to subject its performance to a free, fair and inclusive election.

Mohammad Muslim Chowdhury, former Comptroller and Auditor General of Bangladesh, said that although banks such as Sonali, Janata, Agrani and Rupali were converted into public limited companies two decades ago, they continue to function largely as extensions of the government.

He suggested that these banks should be brought under a genuine corporate structure, merged if necessary, and eventually listed on the stock exchange after a thorough review of their asset quality and balance sheets.

He also called for bringing the Financial Institutions Division (FID) under the regulatory oversight of the Bangladesh Bank to prevent misuse of authority and strengthen supervision.

He further said the total number of banks should be reduced, with particular attention to those with weak balance sheets and negative net worth, through liquidation or other corrective measures.

The latest fuel price increase is expected to send shockwaves through much of the economy, lifting costs for farmers, transporters and manufacturers while offering only slight relief to the government finances and the exchange rate, according to an analysis by Brac EPL Stock Brokerage Ltd.

The brokerage estimates that seven out of nine key economic indicators it reviewed will face negative pressure. Only two areas, fiscal space and the dollar-taka exchange rate, are likely to benefit.

The government on Saturday night raised the prices of four fuels with effect from midnight. Diesel now sells at Tk 115 per litre, octane at Tk 140, petrol at Tk 135 and kerosene at Tk 130.

Bangladesh introduced an automatic, market-driven fuel pricing mechanism on March 7, 2024. Under the guidelines, prices are adjusted in the first week of each month based on the Mean of Platts Arab Gulf benchmark published by S&P Global.

For months, however, prices moved within a narrow Tk 1 to Tk 2 range in line with global markets. This time, the adjustment crosses over 15 percent, reflecting global price volatility amid conflicts in the Middle East.

Brac EPL estimates that a 15 percent increase across hydrocarbons could cut the subsidy bill by about Tk 700 crore a month at current price levels. That would ease pressure on public finances at a time when weak revenue collection and high operating costs have left the government with limited room to manoeuvre.

Lower subsidy requirements could also trim government borrowing, offering some support to the external balance and the exchange rate. But the impact is not straightforward, rather layered and uneven.

The immediate burden of the fuel shock will fall on irrigation, transport and power generation. North Bengal is in the middle of the Boro season, the largest paddy cycle of the year.

Irrigation there depends heavily on diesel and electricity. Higher diesel prices will raise cultivation costs unless offset by policy support or price adjustments.

Transport and logistics are equally exposed. Freight operators usually pass on higher fuel costs quickly, especially in goods transport. That, in turn, feeds into the prices of agricultural produce, consumer goods and manufactured items.

Although diesel-based generation accounts for less than 2 percent of total power output, its share can rise during peak demand, especially as liquified natural gas (LNG) shortages drag on. Higher generation costs may be passed on to consumers or absorbed through fresh subsidies, according to the report.

It said there could be second-round effects too. Dearer transport, irrigation and energy will add to inflationary pressures already stoked by high imported food prices.

The brokerage said that rising inflation expectations could push up yields on government securities and lift borrowing costs for companies if not carefully managed.

Higher inflation and interest rates, according to the report, would weaken demand, lower output, and leave factories running below capacity, which may ultimately translate into slower GDP growth.

While the country usually depends on long-term supply contracts, diesel, which accounts for nearly 65 percent of hydrocarbon consumption, is increasingly sourced from the volatile spot market.

Because geopolitical tensions have disrupted trade routes, with some suppliers declaring force majeure amid infrastructure damage and shipping blockade through the Strait of Hormuz.

The country’s sole crude oil refinery, Eastern Refinery Limited, has an annual capacity of 1.5 million tonnes and meets about 20 percent of domestic demand across 16 fuel products.

The refinery is currently running well below capacity because of crude shortages and is unlikely to scale up production before May this year.

Besides, existing trade agreements with the US limit Bangladesh’s ability to diversify its fuel sourcing, creating added pressure on procurement.

Brac EPL said reliance on spot purchases, low refinery utilisation and limited sourcing options could prompt further price increases, though at a slower pace.

Bangladesh is seeking an additional $2 billion in external support to cushion exposure to volatile fuel markets, ease foreign exchange pressure, and gradually reduce subsidies.

In the meantime, the country has secured a 60-day waiver from the United States to import fuel from Russia and has sourced 100,000 tonnes from Kazakhstan at around $75 a barrel.

The World Bank-IMF Spring Meetings ended with more questions than answers for Bangladesh. There was no firm signal on the size or timing of external financing, no breakthrough on the stalled IMF programme, and no assurance that the expected $3.2 billion in budget support from the World Bank, ADB, AIIB, and Japan can be mobilised within the government's timeline. At a moment when tensions in the Strait of Hormuz are already unsettling global energy and freight markets, this ambiguity could not have come at a worse time.

Yet the government's post-Meeting narrative has been one of calm continuity. Officials insist the IMF programme is not off the table and that external financing will materialise once routine discussions conclude in the coming months. This confidence, however, sits uneasily alongside the fiscal choices now on the table: a record Tk9.3 trillion budget built on an ambitious revenue target that keeps the deficit deceptively modest as a share of GDP. The implicit message is that adjustment can wait – even as the global environment grows more hostile.

That assumption is increasingly difficult to sustain. Bangladesh sits at the wrong end of every transmission channel emanating from the Strait of Hormuz. Even a partial disruption pushes up oil prices, inflating the import bill and expanding subsidy requirements. Disruptions to Saudi and Qatari urea shipments raise fertilizer costs and threaten agricultural cycles. War-risk premiums on Gulf shipping routes increase freight costs for an import-dependent manufacturing base. Each additional dollar spent on fuel, fertiliser, and freight becomes a direct drawdown on already strained foreign exchange reserves.

Crucially, these pressures are not temporary. Even if the conflict were to de-escalate quickly, the lagged effects on prices, supply chains, and risk premiums are likely to persist for months. This is a shock that compounds over time – and it is arriving just as Bangladesh's policy credibility is beginning to fray.

The deeper problem is that the pressure is no longer one-sided. Bangladesh today finds itself caught between a shock it cannot control and policies it has been slow to adjust. The global environment is tightening from one end; policy inertia is tightening from the other. The result is a narrowing policy space – an economy squeezed from both directions.

This is why the stalled IMF programme matters far beyond its immediate financing value. Without an active IMF programme, Bangladesh loses more than access to disbursements – it loses its credibility anchor. And without that anchor, budget support from other multilaterals becomes harder to unlock, with IMF endorsement now effectively the gatekeeper of macroeconomic confidence. If these flows do not materialise, the consequences are immediate: a wider external financing gap, sharper import compression, rising inflation, and further pressure on reserves.

It is also important to recognise the constraints under which the current government is operating. Barely two months into office, it has been forced to navigate a fragile macroeconomic landscape while confronting a global shock that intensified within days of assuming power. Under such conditions, delays in advancing reforms are understandable.

What is harder to justify, however, is not inertia but reversal. The issue is not that reforms have yet to move forward – it is that some have not yet moved backward. The reintroduction of discretion in petroleum pricing, renewed exchange-rate management despite commitments to a market-based regime, and amendments to the bank resolution framework that reopen the door to previously discredited owners all signal a retreat from earlier reform commitments. Meanwhile, larger structural measures – particularly in tax and financial sector reform – remain stalled.

This mix of reversal and inertia creates a credibility problem at precisely the wrong moment. Backtracking signals unreliability; delays signal a lack of urgency. Together, they raise doubts about the government's willingness to adjust, keeping external financing on hold while the global shock intensifies.

The adjustment path itself is not complicated – but it is politically difficult. It begins with restoring exchange-rate credibility, because without that, reserves cannot be rebuilt and external balances cannot stabilise. It requires aligning interest-rate policy with genuine monetary tightening to contain inflation. It demands a shift in fiscal policy from expansionary optimism to targeted consolidation – anchored in realistic revenue expectations, rationalised subsidies, and prioritised expenditure. And it necessitates moving forward on long-delayed structural reforms, from tax administration and banking sector cleanup to energy pricing, port management, and state-owned enterprise governance.

Ultimately, macroeconomic adjustment is never neutral. When policy delays persist, the burden does not disappear – it shifts. Import compression translates into raw-material shortages for industry. A defended exchange rate erodes export competitiveness while diverting remittances into informal channels. Delayed energy pricing reforms inflate subsidies, crowding out social spending. In the absence of timely policy action, adjustment takes place through even higher inflation, stricter and more chaotic rationing, and slower growth – mechanisms that disproportionately affect those least able to absorb the shock.

Bangladesh is now operating in a dangerously exposed position: caught between a volatile global environment, a stalled IMF programme, and a fiscal stance that assumes the storm will pass. But the world is tightening, not easing. External conditions are becoming less forgiving, not more.

The government may have had limited time – but the direction of travel is already visible.

The war delivered the shock, but the distribution of pain is being decided at home. Without timely and credible reforms, the burden of adjustment will not be shared evenly – it will cascade downward, onto households, workers, and small businesses. That is the real cost of delay: not just macroeconomic strain, but a quieter, more unequal adjustment that unfolds as policy continues to look the other way.

A day after hiking fuel prices, the government has announced a 10-20% increase in diesel, octane and petrol supplies from today to ease the shortages that kept motorists waiting in long queues for hours in Dhaka and elsewhere as of yesterday.

In a notification last night, the Energy Division said the distribution companies under the Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation (BPC) will sell 13,048 tonnes of diesel, 1,422 tonnes of octane and 1,511 tonnes of petrol per day from 20 April. This marks a 10% increase for diesel and petrol, and 20% for octane.

"Considering the present demand for fuel oils, companies under the BPC have been instructed to sell at the increased rates to keep up the supplies at dealers' and consumers' levels," reads the notification.

The government raised the price of octane by Tk20 per litre, petrol by Tk19 and diesel by Tk15, effective from yesterday.

Earlier in parliament yesterday, Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Iqbal Hasan Mahmud Tuku blamed panic buying, stockpiling and black market activity for the shortages at filling stations.

He said there is no shortage of fuel in the country, but that an artificial crisis is being created.

Despite a sharp increase in fuel prices aimed at reducing the subsidy burden, motorists across Bangladesh continued to face long queues at filling stations and shortages yesterday, with no sign of an improvement in supply.

Many motorists had expected the price increase to be followed by higher supplies from depots to petrol stations, easing the shortages that have persisted for weeks. Instead, the situation remained largely unchanged.

Drivers and motorcyclists in Dhaka and elsewhere in the country were still waiting for hours at filling stations to obtain fuel.

At some filling stations, motorcyclists who joined queues at midnight on Saturday were only able to buy fuel yesterday afternoon. Even then, some said they had not been allowed to fill their tanks.

Measures taken by the Energy Division to tackle hoarding and black market sales, including appointing tag officers at filling stations, forming monitoring teams at district and upazila level and conducting mobile court operations, have so far failed to improve the situation.

Energy Adviser to the Consumers Association of Bangladesh (CAB) M Shamsul Alam said the ministry had created a narrative that "fuel reserves are overflowing and that there is insufficient storage space".

"Yet people are standing on the streets for hours without getting fuel. The Energy Division, the BPC, the Competition Commission, the Directorate of National Consumer Rights Protection and the law enforcement agencies are all standing like wooden puppets. There are no words to describe this," he told TBS.

Shamsul Alam said the public could have accepted the difficulties if the government had acknowledged that supply is being disrupted by the Middle East conflict, the dollar shortage and uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz.

"Instead, the ministry has created the opposite narrative and is not even admitting there is a fuel shortage. That is proof of the government's serious inefficiency and inability to control the supply chain," he said.

Asked whether fuel supplies would be increased after the price rise, Energy and Mineral Resources Division spokesman Monir Hossain Chowdhury said, "We are often supplying more than the allocated amount. But unless panic buying stops, the situation will not return to normal."

Sajjadul Karim Kabul, president of one faction of the Petrol Pump Owners' Association, said depot supplies had not increased despite the higher prices.

"What is the point of raising fuel prices? The crisis will not end unless supplies increase. If they supplied fuel at full capacity for one week, everything would calm down," he said.

Kabul said officials appear worried that the Strait of Hormuz could be closed again and are therefore reluctant to release more fuel.

"We do not even know whether the government has the fuel. They keep telling the press that reserves are at their highest level in 50 years. If there are reserves, then release the fuel," he said.

Kabul said his 13,500-litre tanker had received only 9,000 litres from the depot and that the same situation had continued for the past three days.

The government's position also drew criticism in parliament.

Rumin Farhana, member of parliament for Brahmanbaria-2, accused the government of misleading the public.

Speaking on a point of order yesterday, she said: "The government keeps saying there is no fuel shortage, but the reality is completely different. There are queues stretching for three kilometres. Drivers are waiting until midnight and still not getting fuel. If there is no crisis, why are there such long queues? Why has the government increased fuel prices?"

Fahmida Khatun, executive director of the Centre for Policy Dialogue, told this newspaper that the price increase had been necessary because the government could no longer bear the cost of rising international fuel prices caused by supply disruptions.

"Consumers now want access to fuel without difficulty. The government must ensure adequate supply in order to normalise the situation," she said.

Countrywide paralysis

The shortage is not confined to the capital, according to TBS correspondents. Reports from Savar suggest that 75% of filling stations lacked octane and petrol by Sunday morning. Local officials claimed that while 68% of pumps had diesel, the concentrated demand on a few functional stations created a sense of panic.

The crisis has also hit the transport sector in Bogura, where goods-carrying trucks are unable to secure sufficient diesel, and in Barisal and Brahmanbaria, where pump owners report receiving no clear timeline from depots regarding when normal supply will resume.

At some stations, such as the SI Chowdhury Filling Station in Savar, managers reported receiving only one-third of their usual weekly octane allocation.

An acute shortage of ammonia has closed down production at the state-owned DAP Fertilizer Company Limited (DAPFCL), marking a fresh setback for the country’s fertiliser supply chain, officials said.

The closure of five of the country’s six urea factories is behind the crisis, they claimed.

The ammonia needed for production at the factory is primarily sourced from Chittagong Urea Fertilizer Company Limited (CUFL) and Karnaphuli Fertilizer Company Limited (Kafco).

These two fertiliser factories were among the five shut down in early March, as a precaution amid fears of gas supply disruptions caused by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. They are yet to resume operations, and ammonia supply to the DAP facility remains cut off.

The DAP plant exhausted its stock of the indispensable raw material on Saturday. Fertiliser output had stopped around 7:00 pm, Deputy General Manager (Commercial) Robiul Alam Khan confirmed.

“If gas supply to those plants resumes, they can restart production, and we will receive raw materials again. There is no alternative source at the moment,” he told The Daily Star.

DAP production requires phosphoric acid and ammonia.

“We have sufficient phosphoric acid in stock, but without ammonia, production cannot continue,” Robiul Alam Khan added.

Typically, the plant produces around 500 tonnes of fertiliser daily using imported phosphoric acid and ammonia supplied by Kafco and CUFL.

The most recent batch of 3,000 tonnes of ammonia from Kafco had sustained production till Saturday, Khan said.

DAPFCL had managed to continue operations for nearly one and a half months using existing stock, but was forced to shut down after the reserves ran out.

Located in Rangadia of Anwara upazila in Chattogram, DAPFCL operates under the Bangladesh Chemical Industries Corporation (BCIC) of the Ministry of Industries.

Established to meet domestic demand for nitrogen and phosphorus-based fertilisers, the plant has been in commercial operation since 2006 and remains the country’s only DAP-producing plant. It has two units with a combined production capacity of 800 tonnes per day.

The plant produced around 92,600 tonnes of DAP in fiscal year 2023-24 and about 49,500 tonnes in fiscal year 2024-25, reflecting a sharp decline amid supply disruptions.

According to BCIC and the Ministry of Agriculture, the country’s total annual fertiliser demand is estimated at 6.5-6.9 million tonnes, including 2.7 million tonnes of urea, 752,000 tonnes of TSP, 1.507 million tonnes of DAP, 2.6 million tonnes of NPKS and 987,000 tonnes of MOP.

Around 1.4 million tonnes of DAP are imported. A significant portion comes from Morocco, Tunisia, China, and Saudi Arabia.

BCIC officials said geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and disruptions in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have created uncertainty over timely imports.

Authorities initially shut five urea fertiliser factories for 15 days from March 4 as a precaution amid concerns over gas supply disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict and the Strait of Hormuz closure.

However, the shutdown has stretched well beyond the initial timeline, with plants still idle after more than six weeks.

Even Kafco, initially operating at limited capacity, was forced to suspend production late last month due to worsening gas shortages.

BCIC officials said around 197 million cubic feet of gas per day are required to run the five major urea plants at full capacity, underscoring the severity of the supply crunch.

“We have been unable to produce around 7,100 tonnes of fertiliser daily from these plants for the past one and a half months,” BCIC Director (Production and Research) Md Moniruzzaman said.

He added that gas supply to Shahjalal Fertilizer Company Limited and CUFL is expected to resume from May 1.

“Once ammonia production restarts, we expect the DAP plant to receive feedstock and resume operations,” he said.

Amid ongoing domestic and global challenges, businesses have urged the government to ensure that the upcoming national budget for the 2026-27 fiscal year is supportive and growth-oriented rather than “punitive”.

They also called for a reduction in effective tax rates, including turnover tax, and stressed the need for a balanced and pragmatic tax policy to encourage investment and economic expansion.

The demands were made at a pre-budget seminar on private-sector priorities in Dhaka, jointly organised by the Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Dhaka (MCCI), and the Economic Reporters’ Forum (ERF).

“In the current global and domestic economic context, we are going through a challenging time,” said Kamran T Rahman, president of MCCI.

High inflation, sluggish investment, elevated interest rates, and pressure on foreign exchange have made doing business difficult, he said, adding that small and medium enterprises are the worst affected.

He said the budget should focus on boosting investment and job creation, urging a further 2.5 percentage point cut in corporate tax for both listed and non-listed companies and the removal of the cash transaction condition.

Rahman also proposed introducing a “Unified Taxpayer Profile” to replace separate tax, VAT, and customs systems, which he said would reduce complexity and harassment.

Golam Mainuddin, chairperson of Apex Footwear Limited, said the tax burden remains disproportionately high on compliant taxpayers.

Habibullah N Karim, senior vice-president of MCCI, said, “This is an opportunity to rethink our taxation paradigm; high rates often discourage compliance.”

“Bangladesh once had such high-income tax rates that no one paid at the top bracket. When rates were reduced, collection increased and it could rise further if rates are lowered again,” he added.

Citing VAT, he noted, “If rates come down from 15 percent, more businesses will comply, and overall collection could increase.”

“There is a huge scope to expand the tax net, but a rent-seeking culture within the tax administration remains a major barrier.”

“Without making the system service-oriented and addressing this culture, even automation will not deliver effective results,” he said.

Malik Mohammed Sayeed, chief executive officer of Square Toiletries Limited, called for retaining tax exemptions on sanitary napkins and diapers.

He also urged a reduction in taxes on imported raw materials to around 10 percent, as key inputs are not locally produced and require large-scale investment.

Asif Ibrahim, former president of the Chittagong Stock Exchange, said, “Investment has stagnated. Without protecting domestic investors, foreign investment will not come.”

He noted that declining private-sector credit growth is a concern, and financial sector reforms are needed.

“We expect the budget to support both domestic and foreign investment through a collaborative approach to drive growth and jobs,” he said.

Former NBR chairman Muhammad Abdul Mazid stressed policy predictability, saying businesses need clarity on tax rates in advance.

ERF President Doulot Akter Mala warned of a potential revenue shortfall of nearly Tk 100,000 crore this fiscal year, cautioning against overly ambitious targets in the next budget.

Business leaders have called for the urgent appointment of a private-sector administrator and swift elections at the Federation of Bangladesh Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FBCCI), warning that prolonged administrative uncertainty is weakening the country’s apex trade body and undermining the interests of the private sector.

They made the call at a meeting with Commerce Minister Khandker Abdul Muqtadir at the commerce ministry today.

The FBCCI has been run by an administrator for the past two years following the political changeover on August 5, 2024.

At today’s event, Mohammad Hatem, president of the BKMEA, stressed the need to appoint an experienced businessperson as administrator of the FBCCI, instead of a government official, so that the concerns of the business community can be addressed more effectively.

He emphasised greater engagement with businesses in policymaking, particularly in the trade and industrial sectors, and highlighted the need to ensure the federation remains active, inclusive, and responsive to all business groups.

Hatem also underscored the urgency of restoring effective leadership through timely elections, warning that prolonged uncertainty is undermining business confidence.

He said the apex trade body must function as a strong and credible representative of the private sector, especially at a time when businesses face multiple domestic and global challenges. Without an elected committee, he noted, the organisation cannot effectively carry out its role in policy advocacy and coordination.

He called for prompt steps to hold elections and restore normal operations, adding that representative leadership would better protect business interests and support economic growth.

Md Zakir Hossain, general secretary of the Bangladesh Supermarket Owners’ Association, also called for the immediate appointment of a new administrator for the FBCCI from within the business community, saying the association has become ineffective under the current setup.

He said the organisation has effectively been left “without guardianship” following consecutive government-appointed administrators. While a previous administrator, Hafizur Rahman, initiated reforms and announced an election schedule, the process was later stalled due to legal challenges from business leaders.

Hossain acknowledged shared responsibility within the business community but warned that prolonged uncertainty is hurting small and medium enterprises the most. “Large businesses can directly approach ministries, but SMEs depend on FBCCI,” he said.

He criticised current administrator Abdur Rahim for limited engagement, calling for a full-time, business-backed administrator. He added that elections should be held quickly, with any rule-related issues addressed either before or after polls by an elected committee.

Abdul Haque, president of the Bangladesh Reconditioned Vehicles Importers and Dealers Association (BARVIDA), also called for the immediate holding of elections at the FBCCI, saying prolonged delays are harming the private sector.

He said the federation has been without an elected committee for nearly two years, calling the situation detrimental to the business environment. “In an economy where around 80 percent is driven by the private sector, the absence of elected leadership in its apex body is unacceptable,” he said.

Haque warned that several policies have been adopted without adequate private-sector input and could have negative impacts. He particularly flagged the long-pending import policy, urging a thorough review.

While acknowledging shared responsibility, he urged the government to appoint a private-sector administrator and hold elections swiftly. Citing the 2006–07 caretaker period as precedent, he said timely action is both possible and necessary.

In response, Commerce Minister Khandker Abdul Muqtadir called for transforming the FBCCI into a truly representative, effective, and non-political body for the business community.

He said the association must play a more proactive role in protecting business interests and conveying concerns to the government, while applying constructive pressure when needed without being politicised.

“We want an FBCCI that genuinely serves as a unified platform for all businesses,” he said, adding that it should provide practical, ground-level input in policymaking.

Muqtadir stressed that competent and dynamic leadership from within the business community is essential to revitalise the organisation. He also reassured leaders of the government’s commitment to a business-friendly environment, noting that a new import policy is in its final stage and that committees will be formed to simplify services across key ministries.

At the meeting, FBCCI Administrator and Additional Secretary (export) Md Abdur Rahim Khan also spoke.

Among the business leaders present were former FBCCI president Mir Nasir Hossain, former BKMEA president SM Fazlul Haque, former FBCCI director Nasreen Fatema Awal, Bangladesh CNG Machineries Importers Association president Zakir Hossain Nayan, former FBCCI director Gias Uddin Chowdhury Khokon, former Rangamati Chamber president Belayet Hossain Bhuiyan, former FBCCI vice-president Nizam Uddin Rajesh, and former director Syed Bakhtiar.

Economists have attributed the decline to overall political instability and uncertainty surrounding the elections.

Former World Bank Dhaka office lead economist Zahid Hossain said there was no conducive environment for investment at the time.

“There was uncertainty over the direction of political consensus, making it unrealistic to expect foreign funds to flow into the country. Although the interim government took some initiatives to attract investment, those efforts faced obstacles,” he said.

He added that foreign investors were hesitant as they knew the interim government would not be permanent and there was no clear roadmap regarding the elections.

Reinvested earnings also saw a sharp decline during the period. Bangladesh Bank data showed a 35.31 percent drop, with reinvested earnings standing at $217.4 million at the end of the October–December quarter, compared to $325.75 million a year earlier.

Reinvested earnings refer to profits generated by foreign companies from local operations that are reinvested in the country instead of being repatriated. While this indicates some level of investment activity, overall FDI growth depends largely on new equity investments, which remain weak.

Distinguished Fellow of the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) Mustafizur Rahman said foreign firms reduced reinvested earnings considering the overall economic and political environment.

“There was uncertainty over whether elections would take place, which discouraged reinvestment. Although elections were held in February, concerns persisted during that quarter,” he said.

Apart from political factors, economists pointed to several structural challenges hindering FDI inflows, including policy complexities, high business costs, and infrastructural limitations.

Bangladesh also lags behind other South Asian countries in port management, transport, and logistics facilities, as well as cargo and container handling capacity.

Mustafizur Rahman said issues such as the absence of an effective single-window system and high costs of doing business are discouraging foreign investors.

“Even if the political environment improves, investment will not increase unless these structural problems are addressed. The arrival of an elected government alone will not automatically boost FDI, as investors evaluate overall opportunities and conditions,” he added.

A senior Bangladesh Bank official said private sector investment has also declined, indicating that both local and foreign investors are reluctant to undertake new investments.

According to Bangladesh Bank, total foreign investment—including equity, reinvested earnings, and intra-company loans—stood at $363.82 million during the period, down from $494 million in the same quarter of 2024.

The country's capital market began the week on a sluggish note today (19 April), as investors remained cautious following the recent adjustment in domestic fuel prices and ongoing uncertainty regarding the Middle East conflict.

The benchmark DSEX index of the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) edged down by approximately 9 points to settle at 5,247.

Market participants remained cautious, refraining from taking fresh positions and instead adopting a wait-and-see stance amid lingering geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainties that continued to weigh on market momentum.

Despite a relatively steady performance during the mid-session, the early optimism failed to hold as mounting selling pressure in major large-cap scrips eventually eroded the initial gains.

EBL Securities, in its daily market review, noted that the recent hike in domestic fuel prices further reinstated investor caution.

While the benchmark index fell, the blue-chip DS30 index saw a marginal uptick, closing at 1,990. However, the overall market breadth remained bearish, with 223 issues declining against 125 advancing, while 56 remained unchanged.

Trading activity on the premier bourse saw a slight upward trend compared to previous sessions, with total turnover rising to Tk819 crore.

On the sectoral front, the engineering sector dominated market participation, accounting for 18.9% of the total turnover, followed by the textile and general insurance sectors.

However, the majority of sectors recorded negative returns. The paper and printing sector faced the steepest correction, dropping by 1.7%, while the travel and leisure and jute sectors declined by 1.5% and 1.1%, respectively.

In contrast, the general insurance sector emerged as a rare bright spot, posting a 2.2% gain, while the textile and tannery sectors also managed to end the day with marginal positive returns.

Several high-cap stocks acted as significant index draggers during the session, including Islami Bank, Walton Hi-Tech Industries, National Bank, ACI, and Beacon Pharmaceuticals.

On the other hand, turnover leaders included City Bank, Paramount Textile, Khan Brothers PP Woven Bag, Runner Auto, and Acme Pesticides.

Among individual stocks, Runner Auto and Janata Insurance emerged as the top gainers, both surging by 9.94%, while Sonar Bangla Insurance and Prime Textile also posted significant gains.

Conversely, Popular Life First Mutual Fund and Meghna Cement were among the top losers of the session, facing notable price corrections.

The bearish sentiment was mirrored at the Chittagong Stock Exchange (CSE), where the key indices both closed in negative territory.

The CSCX ended 5 points lower at 9,035, while the CASPI shed 9 points to settle at 14,751. Turnover at the port city bourse, however, saw an increase, reaching Tk41 crore

Oil prices rebounded more than 6% today (20 April) after tumbling more than 9% on Friday on news the Strait of Hormuz is closed again after both the US and Iran said the other party had violated their ceasefire deal by attacking ships over the weekend.

Brent crude futures jumped $6.11, or 6.76%, to $96.49 a barrel by 2327 GMT and US West Texas Intermediate was at $90.38 a barrel, ⁠up $6.53, or 7.79%.

The US military had seized an Iranian cargo ship that tried to run its blockade, US President Donald Trump said yesterday, while Iran said it would not participate in a second round of peace talks despite Trump's threat of renewed airstrikes.

The United States has maintained a blockade of Iranian ports, while Iran has lifted and then reimposed its own blockade of the Strait, which handled roughly one-fifth of the world's oil supply before the war began almost two months ago.

"Oil markets continue to gyrate in response to ⁠oscillating social media posts by the US and Iran, rather than the realities on the ground which remain challenging for oil flows to resume in a rapid fashion," Saul Kavonic, MST Marquee's head of research, said.

Both contracts posted on Friday their largest daily declines since April 18 after ⁠Iran said passage for all commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz was open for the remaining ceasefire period and Trump said Iran had agreed to never close the strait again.

"The announcement of ⁠the Strait opening proved premature," Kavonic said.

"Ship owners will be twice shy about heading towards the Strait again without receiving much more confidence that any announced passage is ⁠real."

More than 20 ships passed the strait on Saturday carrying oil, liquefied petroleum gas, metals and fertilizers, Kpler data showed, the highest number of vessels crossing the waterway since 1 March.