Stock markets fell on Friday as investors awaited news of an extension to the Iran-US ceasefire, while crude prices edged back down following the previous day's rally.

The losses follow a healthy, record-breaking week for equities, fuelled by hopes the Middle East war, which is heading into a seventh week, could be close to an end after Donald Trump said negotiators were close to a deal.

But worries abound that a shaky truce agreed earlier this month -- and which ends next week -- could fall apart and spark a fresh market rout.

The US president on Thursday struck an optimistic tone, telling reporters that "it's looking very good that we're going to make a deal with Iran, and it's going to be a good deal", adding that talks between Washington and Tehran could resume this weekend.

He also claimed Iran had "agreed to give us back the nuclear dust", using his name for the country's enriched uranium stockpile, and the deal would include "free oil" as well as the opening of the Strait of Hormuz.

"We had to make sure that Iran never gets a nuclear weapon," Trump said at the White House. "They've totally agreed to that. They've agreed to almost everything, so maybe if they can get to the table, there's a difference."

Iran has given no public indication that it would surrender its stockpile.

However, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth took a tough line on the situation earlier in the day, telling a Pentagon news conference: "If Iran chooses poorly, then they will have a blockade and bombs dropping on infrastructure, power and energy."

Meanwhile, some Gulf Arab and European leaders fear a long-term agreement could take six months to achieve and called for the truce to cover such a time period, Bloomberg reported.

They wanted the Strait of Hormuz -- through which about a fifth of global oil and LNG passes -- opened immediately and have warned in private of a global food crisis if that is not achieved by next month, the report said.

Fragile sentiment

Stocks fell across the region, with Tokyo, which hit a record high Thursday, among the biggest losers, with Seoul, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Sydney, Wellington, Manila and Singapore also well down.

Taiwan's TAIEX dropped. On Thursday it hit a market capitalisation of US$4.14 trillion to top the UK's market capitalisation and become the world's seventh biggest, according to Bloomberg data.

London edged lower, Paris edged up, and Frankfurt was flat.

That came even after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq enjoyed record closes on Wall Street.

Analysts said traders were heading into the weekend to position for any surprise developments.

Oil prices dropped, a day after sharp gains, though both main contracts remain just below $100 a barrel.

There was some support from a 10-day ceasefire agreed between Israel and Lebanon that took effect at 2100 GMT Thursday.

Tel Aviv has sent troops into its northern neighbour since militant group Hezbollah launched rocket attacks in support of Iran last month.

Hezbollah has not officially said if it will recognise the ceasefire, but one of its lawmakers told AFP on Thursday that the group would respect it if Israeli attacks on its militants stopped.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the 10-day ceasefire with Lebanon offered an opportunity for a "historic peace agreement", but insisted that the disarmament of militant group Hezbollah remained a precondition.

Trump said he will invite the countries' leaders to the White House.

"While investors remain buoyed by talks of an extension in the US-Iran ceasefire and an announced Israel-Lebanon 10-day ceasefire, risk sentiment remains fragile as an immediate deal remains unlikely given that the countries remain far apart on key issues," wrote National Australia Bank's Skye Masters.

Fiona Cincotta of City Index said, "While risks remain -- particularly around disruptions to key shipping routes such as the Strait of Hormuz -- markets are increasingly pricing in a scenario where oil prices have peaked unless tensions re-escalate."

But she warned, "the outlook remains fragile. A breakdown in diplomacy or renewed escalation could quickly reverse recent gains".

Key figures around 0715 GMT

Tokyo - Nikkei 225: DOWN 1.8 percent at 58,475.90 (close)

Hong Kong - Hang Seng Index: DOWN 1.2 percent at 26,087.89

Shanghai - Composite: DOWN 0.1 percent at 4,051.43 (close)

London - FTSE 100: DOWN 0.1 percent at 10,584.26

West Texas Intermediate: DOWN 1.0 percent at $93.73 a barrel

Brent North Sea Crude: DOWN 0.6 percent at $98.76 a barrel

Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.1777 from $1.1784 on Thursday

Pound/dollar: DOWN at $1.3507 from $1.3529

Dollar/yen: UP at 159.40 yen from 159.14 yen

Euro/pound: UP at 87.17 pence from 87.09 pence

New York - Dow Jones: UP 0.2 percent at 48,578.72 (close)

Bangladesh has surpassed all previous records for wheat imports with nearly three months of the financial year still remaining, driven by growing demand from bakeries, processed food manufacturers, and fish feed producers, combined with lower global prices.

Officials at the food ministry say another 10-15 lakh tonnes of wheat could be imported in the remaining period of the 2025-26 fiscal year.

According to ministry data, 5.83 lakh tonnes of wheat were imported by the government and 61.6 lakh tonnes by the private sector during the first nine months of the fiscal year, totalling the figure to 67.43 lakh tonnes. In FY25, total wheat imports stood at 62.35 lakh tonnes.

Speaking to The Business Standard, industry insiders say wheat demand has risen sharply because of changing food habits and greater use of wheat in bakery products, processed foods and fish feed. Lower prices in the international market have also encouraged companies to buy more than their immediate requirements.

Md Moniruzzaman, director of procurement at the Directorate General of Food, said changing food habits had increased wheat demand in recent years. "This year, wheat imports have reached the highest level in the country's history."

Bangladesh's annual wheat requirement is estimated at 70-80 lakh tonnes. In addition to imports, the country produces around 10-12 lakh tonnes of wheat domestically each year. The Department of Agricultural Extension forecasts local wheat production at 11.14 lakh tonnes in the current fiscal year, up from 10.41 lakh tonnes a year earlier.

The pace of imports has accelerated significantly in recent months. Bangladesh imported 35.35 lakh tonnes of wheat in the first six months of the fiscal year, while another 32.08 lakh tonnes arrived between January and 8 April alone.

Sector insiders say wheat prices surged to record levels in 2022 following the Russia-Ukraine war, but fell to nearly half by the middle of last year and have since remained relatively stable. The lower prices have prompted private companies to increase purchases.

Private sector representatives say demand for bakery products has grown steadily as consumer preferences shift. A decade ago, only a handful of industrial groups marketed processed food products, but now the number is rising continuously. Alongside small bakeries, major industrial groups are making substantial investments in the sector.

Demand has also increased for eateries, restaurants and street food stalls. Wheat is now widely used in the production of noodles, biscuits, bread, chanachur, snacks, dried foods and frozen foods for both the domestic and export markets.

Pran-RFL Group, one of the country's largest food producers, now requires around 2.5 lakh tonnes of wheat a year for its food processing operations, up from about 1.8 lakh tonnes two to three years ago.

Kamruzzaman Kamal, marketing director at Pran-RFL Group, said the processed food market is expanding rapidly and becoming more diversified.

"Demand for wheat-based food products is rising among consumers. These products are being sold not only in the domestic market but also exported abroad," he said.

Echoing Kamal, Taslim Shahriar, deputy general manager of Meghna Group of Industries, said wheat imports have increased because of greater dietary diversity and stronger consumer demand.

Similar views were shared by FH Ansarey, managing director of ACI Agrolink Ltd. Consumers are showing more interest in wheat-based foods than rice because of growing health awareness, he said.

Changing food habits

Although there is no official estimate of the size of the bakery market, industry representatives believe it is worth around Tk15,000 crore. There are around 7,000 manual and live bakeries across the country, employing nearly 10 lakh people. Almost 1,000 bakeries operate in the capital alone.

Corporate investment in the bakery industry has also increased markedly over the past few years, contributing to greater use of wheat.

Md Rezaul Haque Rezu, general secretary of the Bangladesh Bread, Biscuit and Confectionery Manufacturers Association and owner of Haque Bakery, said the industry had suffered first during the pandemic and later because of the Russia-Ukraine war, when many bakeries closed as most wheat imports came from Ukraine.

"Over the last one to one-and-a-half years, the bakery sector has recovered significantly," he said.

"The industry is becoming more diversified and demand is increasing. Many people are eating less rice because of diabetes, while younger consumers are more interested in bakery products. Overall wheat consumption in the country is rising."

Data from the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics show that changing food habits are contributing to the shift towards wheat. According to the Household Income and Expenditure Survey published in 2023, per capita daily consumption of wheat-based foods rose from 19.8 grams in 2016 to 22.9 grams in 2022, an increase of 15.65%.

Among urban consumers, wheat consumption increased by nearly 26% over the same period, while per capita rice consumption fell by 10.43%.

Rising rice prices and falling wheat prices have also encouraged consumers to switch. Three years ago, loose flour cost Tk8-9 more per kg than coarse rice. Now flour is around Tk15 cheaper.

According to the Trading Corporation of Bangladesh, coarse rice currently sells for Tk55-60 per kg, while loose flour costs Tk40-45. In 2023, coarse rice was priced at Tk46-50 per kg, compared with Tk55-58 for flour.

Rising demand in feed industry

Demand for wheat has also increased in the feed industry. Wheat bran is used in animal feed, while wheat itself is widely used in fish feed.

Md Anwarul Haque, general secretary of the Feed Industries Association Bangladesh and managing director of Padma Feed and Chicks Ltd, said fish feed typically contains 18-22% wheat.

"Commercial fish farming is expanding, so demand for feed is also rising. Floating feed is widely used in fish farming, which has increased wheat use in this sector more than ever before," he said.

He added that wheat bran was also used extensively in livestock feed.

Different thoughts

However, not all importers believe the rise reflects a structural increase in demand. Md Shafiul Athar Taslim, director of TK Group, said there is a large market for wheat-based products but argued that imports this year have exceeded actual demand.

"It cannot be said that demand has increased significantly. More wheat has been imported this year than is required. In some years imports are lower, in others they are higher," he said.

Uttara Bank PLC has decided to bolster the financial standing of its brokerage subsidiary, Uttara Bank Securities Limited, by investing Tk192 crore through a rights share subscription.

The decision, aimed at expanding the firm's capital and ensuring smoother operations, comes at a time when the subsidiary is grappling with financial losses and a relatively small capital footprint.

According to a price-sensitive statement issued by the bank, the investment will be made by subscribing to a rights offer recently approved by the subsidiary's shareholders.

The rights offer was formally sanctioned during an Extraordinary General Meeting (EGM) of Uttara Bank Securities on 16 April. Under the approved terms, the brokerage firm will issue four rights shares for every one existing share held by its investors. Each of these rights shares is valued at its face value of Tk10, with the total initiative set to raise Tk200 crore in fresh paid-up capital.

The capital injection is structured to reflect the current shareholding pattern of the brokerage firm. While Uttara Bank will provide the lion's share of the funds, amounting to Tk192 crore, the remaining Tk8 crore will be subscribed by six individual investors who hold a minor stake in the company.

According to the bank's statement, the entire subscription process must be completed within 30 days of the EGM approval date.

Speaking to The Business Standard regarding the move, Muhammad Golam Farukh, chief executive officer of Uttara Bank Securities, said the firm's existing paid-up capital of Tk50 crore was insufficient for its growing operational needs.

He added that the primary objective behind increasing the capital is to strengthen the firm's capital base, which is essential for maintaining stability and ensuring the brokerage house can function efficiently in a competitive market.

This move toward capital fortification is also aligned with the evolving regulatory landscape. The Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) enacted risk-based capital rules on 29 May 2019, setting minimum capital requirements ranging between Tk5 crore and Tk15 crore for stockbrokers, depending on the nature of their operations. These rules were formulated based on the bitter experience of the 2010-11 stock market crash, where lenders were largely blamed for disbursing margin loans far beyond their risk-management capacities.

Furthermore, the conditions of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the best practices of developed financial markets were taken into account while formulating these risk-based supervision rules. By raising its capital, Uttara Bank Securities is moving to ensure it remains well above regulatory cushions and is prepared for more complex market activities.

Uttara Bank Securities was incorporated in 2013 as a fully-fledged subsidiary of Uttara Bank and holds a Trading Right Entitlement Certificate (TREC) at the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE). Despite its decade-long presence, the firm has faced a challenging financial period recently.

In the first nine months of 2025, the firm incurred a net loss of Tk4.94 crore. Furthermore, its financial statements for 2024 revealed negative retained earnings of Tk1.80 crore, although the firm maintained a significant asset base valued at Tk369.70 crore during the same period.

In contrast to the subsidiary's struggles, the parent organisation remains financially robust. Uttara Bank reported a consolidated net profit of Tk335 crore for the January–September period of 2025, with a consolidated earnings per share (EPS) of Tk3.46. This strong performance by the parent bank provides the necessary fiscal cushion to support its subsidiary through this capital expansion.

Currently, Uttara Bank maintains 99.994% ownership in the securities firm, with the remaining portion held by the six individual investors. This strategic move is expected to transform the subsidiary's balance sheet and provide the necessary liquidity to navigate the volatility of the capital market, said the bank.

Claim settlement in Bangladesh's life insurance sector improved significantly in the final quarter of 2025, yet many policyholders remain unpaid, deepening the sector's persistent crisis of confidence.

According to unaudited data from the Insurance Development and Regulatory Authority (Idra), total claims in the life insurance sector stood at Tk13,158 crore by the end of the October-December quarter.

Of this, companies managed to settle Tk8,755 crore, leaving Tk4,403 crore in unpaid claims. In percentage terms, the settlement rate rose to 67%, a sharp increase from just 35% in the previous quarter.

A similar trend is visible in terms of policy numbers. Out of a total of 28.43 lakh matured policies, claims for 16.58 lakh have been settled. However, around 11.85 lakh policyholders are still waiting for payments.

Industry insiders said increased regulatory pressure and closer monitoring by the authorities played a key role to the higher settlement rate in the final quarter. As companies approached the year-end, the need for licence renewal also pushed them to settle claims. Besides, higher business volumes during this period improved liquidity, enabling insurers to pay more claims.

Despite this progress, structural weaknesses in the sector remain evident. Stakeholders said that while a handful of well-performing companies are committed to timely claim settlements, many others continue to show little urgency. As a result, delays persist, leaving policyholders in uncertainty. In many cases, customers wait years, even after policy maturity, to receive their dues.

Insurance expert and UNDP consultant SM Zialul Haque explained that typically 40% to 45% of life insurance business is conducted in the final quarter, compared to 20% to 25% during other periods.

"This increases cash flow for companies, allowing them to settle more claims," he told TBS, pointing out that regulatory pressure related to licence renewal further compels companies to act.

He added that nearly one-third of insurers show a strong reluctance to settle claims. However, a segment of companies remains proactive, especially when they have sufficient funds. "The good companies always try to pay customers on time. But the reluctance of some players is affecting the entire sector."

Top insurers pay over 95%

Data shows that MetLife Bangladesh settled 98.3% of its claims during the period. Its Chief Executive Officer Ala Ahmad said, "The true value of insurance is proven at the moment a claim is made. In 2025, we are proud to have settled Tk2,853 crore in claims, the highest in the industry."

He added that MetLife operates through disciplined financial management and significant technology investments. "We have ensured the largest life fund and a digital process that delivers claim payments in just three to five days."

Pragati Life Insurance also set a positive example by settling 98.5% of its claims. Managing Director and CEO Md Jalalul Azim said that around seven to eight companies are consistently working to improve settlement rates. However, others are moving in the opposite direction, showing little commitment to paying customer claims, which is harming the sector as a whole.

Sheikh Rakibul Karim, Chief Executive Officer of Guardian Life Insurance, said, "Every settlement reflects our commitment to keeping our promises. By ensuring transparency and prompt support, we strive to stand beside our customers and their families when it matters most." The company settled 97.5% of its claims within the stipulated period.

Regulatory interventions

Idra spokesperson Saifunnahar Sumi told TBS that the recent improvements are the result of a series of regulatory interventions. The authority is working to maintain a non-corrupt and unbiased regulatory environment while implementing reforms. These include introducing a grading system for insurers, placing lower-ranked companies under special audits, and rewarding better-performing firms.

The regulator has also strengthened accountability through governance review meetings, where board chairmen and senior management are required to attend. In addition, an interview system has been introduced for the appointment and reappointment of CEOs and advisers to ensure compliance.

The Idra spokesperson said efforts were under way to introduce the proposed Insurers' Resolution Act, which would allow authorities to place non-performing companies under resolution if they fail to improve.

"Amendments to the Insurance Act are also being finalised, including provisions for strict penalties if claims are not settled within the stipulated time," Sumi said. "The regulator is regularly monitoring and following up on unresolved claims to ensure faster settlements."

Two listed non-life insurance companies – Bangladesh National Insurance Company and Central Insurance Company have declared cash dividends for the year ended 31 December 2025, as both firms posted earnings growth alongside contrasting cash flow performances.

Bangladesh National Insurance Company has recommended a 22% cash dividend for the period. The insurer will hold its annual general meeting (AGM) on 23 June 2026 through a digital platform, while the record date has been set for 13 May 2026.

The company's share price on the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) declined 1.66% to Tk70.90 on Thursday.

Despite the market dip, the insurer posted stronger financial results in 2025. Its earnings per share (EPS) rose to Tk4.81 from Tk4.19 a year earlier, while net asset value (NAV) per share increased to Tk31.26 from Tk28.45, indicating improved profitability and asset growth.

However, net operating cash flow per share (NOCFPS) fell sharply to Tk4.10 from Tk6.71 in 2024, signalling weaker cash generation from core operations.

The company provides general insurance services across fire, motor, marine, engineering, personal accident, contractor all risk, industrial all risk and health insurance segments.

Meanwhile, Central Insurance Company has recommended a 12% cash dividend for the same financial year. Its AGM will be held on 18 June 2026 via a digital platform, with the record date fixed for 20 May 2026.

The company's share price slipped slightly by 0.25% to Tk40.40 on Thursday's trading session at the DSE.

Central Insurance recorded modest financial growth in 2025, with EPS rising to Tk1.87 from Tk1.85 and NAV per share improving to Tk50.69 from Tk50.17, reflecting stable performance.

Unlike Bangladesh National Insurance, the company saw a slight improvement in cash flow, with NOCFPS increasing to Tk1.64 from Tk1.50 a year earlier.

Its insurance portfolio includes fire, marine cargo, marine hull, engineering, motor, liability, aviation, overseas mediclaim and other miscellaneous products.

Analysts said both insurers maintained operational stability through steady EPS and NAV growth. However, they cautioned that diverging cash flow trends highlight the need for closer scrutiny of liquidity conditions, particularly for Bangladesh National Insurance.

They added that while earnings remain positive, sustained cash generation will be key to assessing long-term financial strength.

The ongoing US-Israel war on Iran has disrupted global trade and weighed on economic growth, but some sectors are benefiting from heightened volatility and shifting policy priorities.

The International Monetary Fund has cut its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.1%, citing supply disruptions linked in part to the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz and damage to Gulf energy infrastructure, says Al Jazeera.

Here are five sectors that analysts say are seeing gains:

Why are Wall Street banks benefiting?

Major US investment banks have reported higher profits as market volatility drives trading activity and portfolio shifts.

Morgan Stanley posted a 29% rise in profit to $5.57 billion, while Goldman Sachs reported a 19% increase to $5.63 billion. JPMorgan Chase recorded a 13% gain to $16.49 billion.

Banks cited "robust client engagement" to explain the results. Analysts say frequent repositioning by investors—sometimes referred to by traders as the "TACO trade," short for "Trump Always Chickens Out"—has boosted commissions and trading revenues.

"Clients want to reposition, so they trade frequently. Spreads tend to increase, which increases the profitability for trade intermediaries like banks," said Sean Dunlap, director of equity research at Morningstar Research Services.

What is driving growth in prediction markets?

Crypto-based prediction platforms are drawing increased attention as users speculate on geopolitical outcomes.

Polymarket has expanded rapidly, revising its fee structure in March 2026 and generating more than $21 million in fees in early April alone.

Regulators are examining the sector over concerns about potential insider trading linked to event-based betting, while data suggests the majority of gains accrue to a small share of users.

How is the defense sector performing?

Global military spending has risen amid conflicts in Iran, Ukraine and Gaza, supporting defense contractors.

Members of NATO have pledged to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035, particularly in Europe.

The MSCI World Aerospace and Defense Index has delivered net returns of about 32% year-on-year, outperforming broader equity benchmarks.

Why is artificial intelligence holding up?

The AI sector has remained resilient despite wider economic uncertainty, supported by strong demand for computing infrastructure.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company reported first-quarter net income of $18.1 billion, up 58% from a year earlier, reflecting continued demand for advanced semiconductors.

Companies such as OpenAI and Anthropic are also pursuing plans to go public, signaling investor interest in the sector.

"Despite the shocks from the Iran war, we're still seeing resilience in a lot of sectors like artificial intelligence and renewable energy," said Nick Marro, lead analyst for global trade at the Economist Intelligence Unit.

How is the war affecting renewable energy?

Energy supply disruptions have accelerated investment in alternatives to fossil fuels.

Countries in Asia, many of which rely heavily on shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, are increasing support for solar, wind and nuclear power as part of energy security strategies.

"Boosted" renewable energy "given the urgency to switch away from fossil fuels and diversify towards renewable sources," said Nick Marro.

A report from the International Energy Agency said: "150 countries have active policies to advance renewable and nuclear deployment, 130 have energy efficiency and electrification policies, and 32 have policies to incentivise supply chain resilience and diversification across critical minerals and clean energy technologies."

The S&P Global Clean Energy Transition Index has risen nearly 71% year-on-year, reflecting increased policy backing and investor demand.

What is the broader outlook?

While these sectors are benefiting, economists warn that prolonged conflict and supply disruptions could continue to weigh on global growth, trade and energy markets, underscoring uneven economic effects from the war.

The core area of Beijing's Satellite Town, designed as a hub ​for satellite manufacturers and operators, ‌will be completed in the second half of 2026, state-owned media Beijing Daily reported on ​Saturday.

- Commercial launches now account ​for over 60% of all space launches ⁠and a number of companies are ​rushing to go public, Beijing Daily ​said.

- Gao Yibin, head of the Strategic Research Department at Future Aerospace, said with the acceleration ​of launch approvals, the localisation of ​components and the continued injection of capital by ‌industrial ⁠funds, China's trillion-yuan commercial space market is moving towards standardisation and scale

- "The accelerated implementation of scenarios such as low-Earth ​orbit constellation ​networking, satellite ⁠internet, space computing power, and 6G air-space-ground integration suggests sustained ​growth is expected in 2026," ​said ⁠Gao.

- The Beijing Satellite Town will provide the support to develop the aerospace ⁠industry ​by fostering industrial clustering ​and enabling talent, capital and technology to flow efficiently.

China's economy picked up speed early in 2026, riding an export surge before the Iran war sent energy costs soaring and put global demand - vital to Beijing's growth ambitions - at risk.

The 5.0% year-on-year pace in the first quarter sits at the top of China's full-year target range of 4.5%-5.0%, highlighting a resilience that sets it apart from much of Asia, helped by ample strategic oil reserves and a diversified energy mix.

Yet the Middle East conflict lays bare a core vulnerability: an export-led growth model that delivers annual trade surpluses the size of the Dutch economy depends on open sea lanes - for China and for the customers it sells to.

And as the world's biggest energy importer and manufacturing powerhouse, soaring oil prices threaten to drive up production costs and squeeze already thin margins at factories that employ hundreds of millions of people. The longer the conflict drags on, the higher the risks, and the pressure is already mounting.

Peng Xin, general manager of Guangdong Rongsu New Materials, which buys petrochemical feedstock from refineries and turns it into plastic pellets for injection-moulding factories, says prices for two types of nylon spiked roughly 40%-60%.

Peng is passing the increases on, while some of his customers rush to place orders and stockpile before costs climb further.

"The current coping method is to negotiate the price for every single order. If you accept my price, we cooperate. Otherwise, there's nothing we can do," he said.

"The entire industry chain is under pressure."

Imbalances expose China to global demand risks

The first-quarter GDP growth beat forecasts of 4.8% and October-December's three-year low of 4.5%, which a statistics bureau official described as a "rare and commendable" achievement, while warning of a "complex and volatile" external environment.

But the trade data for March earlier this week pointed to strains. Exports grew just 2.5% last month, slowing sharply from 21.8% in January–February.

And while factory-gate prices rose out of deflation in March for the first time in more than three years, analysts warn "bad inflation" driven by input costs could be even worse for growth.

"The solid start to the year on the back of strong export performance suggests the direct impact of the Middle East conflict remains contained for now," said Junyu Tan, North Asia economist at Coface.

"But the outlook is not all rosy despite China's relative resilience," Tan added. "The export engine could still be constrained by weaker global demand if the conflict persists."

And the economy remains imbalanced, with consumers unlikely to pick up the slack if exports falter.

Retail sales, a gauge of consumption, grew 1.7% last month, down from 2.8% in January-February, and - as has been the norm in recent years - underperformed industrial output, which rose 5.7% in March versus 6.3% in the first two months.

Lending data earlier this week also showed sluggish credit demand from households and businesses.

Breaking China's protracted property slump will be critical to reviving consumption, but fresh data showing new home prices still falling suggest further pain for the country's embattled developers.

"On one hand you see resilience - the Iran war's impact on China is very limited. On the other hand you see imbalance - a strong export sector versus modest domestic demand," said Tianchen Xu, senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit.

Beijing to ramp up stimulus if exports slow

Analysts do not expect the central bank to ease policy significantly, but say Beijing could deploy more fiscal firepower if the target comes under threat, adding to a debt burden more than three times the size of the economy.

Fiscal expenditure rose 3.6% in January–February, picking up from a 1% increase in 2025.

"The net exports' contribution to Chinese growth could turn negative in the second quarter," said Dan Wang, China director at Eurasia Group.

"If that happens, then the domestic infrastructure spending and fiscal spending will step up in order to bridge the gap."

There is one silver lining for China, however. Cut off from the West after invading Ukraine, Russia now supplies it with discounted oil and gas. Heavy use of coal, rapid expansion of renewables and a growing electric vehicle fleet further shield China from energy shocks.

As the Iran crisis jolts markets, Chinese manufacturers may emerge in better shape than rivals in Europe and elsewhere, where production costs rise even faster.

"In a cost-push inflation cycle, firms normally cannot fully pass on the cost increase to consumers, and this will hit their profit margin," said EIU's Xu.

"That said, Chinese manufacturers still enjoy lower production costs relative to peers in other countries. That will help to preserve, if not increase, their global market share."

The Gulf energy crisis isn’t over. Ever since the United States and Israel launched joint strikes on Iran, regional tumult has throttled worldwide oil and gas supplies. On Friday, Iranian Foreign ​Minister Abbas Araqchi declared the opening of the key Strait of Hormuz chokepoint, through which a fifth of global oil and ‌gas shipments typically transit daily — part of a 10-day ceasefire that now encompasses hostilities in Lebanon. The question is whether investors are right in their apparent sense that the acute phase of the impasse is giving way to a longer-term chronic period, or whether energy prices are going to snap back up again.

For now, the mood is ​one of relief. Brent futures plummeted below $90 a barrel on Friday morning, having neared $120 late last month. In Europe, where gas storage ​levels are near the lowest they’ve been since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, May futures priced off the Dutch TTF benchmark collapsed to under 39 euros per megawatt-hour, from a mid-March high above 60 euros per MWh.

The reaction is understandable. Morgan Stanley analysts envisioned ​prices rising to perhaps $150 per barrel if the situation escalated. Already, at the recent level of $110 a barrel, the bank predicted that Asian GDP growth ​would fall from 5 percent to 4.2 percent this year. The International Monetary Fund similarly cut its forecast for global economic activity. The initial policy response sought to stem the worst effects. Price caps in Asia helped hold domestic fuel-price rises to only 16 percent, adjusting for purchasing power, well below a 53 percent increase in oil prices in local currencies, Morgan ​Stanley reckons. Though presented in broader terms, the UK government has said it will eliminate a carbon tax on natural gas generation.

Any sense of ​normalization needs to be qualified. As Gulf oil and gas storage filled, producers with nowhere to shift their product have shuttered output. War-ravaged infrastructure must be rebuilt. Ships take ‌time to reach port, with full resumption of traffic maybe months away.

A return to that daily norm of 100-plus ships is also far from guaranteed. President Trump’s promise to continue blockading Iran remains. And Araqchi noted that tankers must still coordinate with Iranian authorities: whether this means the country will continue extracting tolls for safe passage is unclear. Fresh costs or risks of re-erupting conflict could lead to a perhaps $10 per barrel oil price premium, experts previously told ​Breakingviews.

If the crisis is in its ​chronic phase, there are other implications. Any deal between Iran and the US to curb Tehran’s nuclear enrichment may not last — after all, the one struck a decade ago by President Barack Obama didn’t. Other consequences abound: Japan is seeking to restart nuclear reactors; ​China raised its target for renewable energy. Consumers too, will respond, judging by reports of frenzied electric-vehicle buying.

Brent prices ​are still meaningfully higher than their pre-conflict low-$70s a barrel in late February. Even still, they could prove to be too low. In a post on social media network X, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on April 17 that “passage for all commercial vessels” through the Strait of Hormuz is “declared completely open for the ​remaining period” of a ceasefire that has now extended to Lebanon.

In a subsequent post ​on Truth Social, US President Donald Trump also said that the Strait is “completely open,” but added that a “naval blockade” will remain in place “as it pertains to Iran,” until “our transaction” is complete. ​US and Iranian negotiators are working towards a peace plan, Axios reported.

Bangladesh’s garment sector is going through a period of sustained pressure as the war in the Middle East disrupts production and international retailers scale back orders.

Western retailers are expected to cut apparel orders by up to 10 percent next season, as higher clothing prices dampen demand and unsold stock piles up in stores.

The latest setback is another blow for local manufacturers, who are already dealing with frequent load shedding, rising transport costs and a deepening fuel crunch following the US-Israel war on Iran.

Exporters say the war has already driven up raw material import bills and freight charges for shipments abroad.

The readymade garment sector, which accounts for more than 80 percent of national export earnings, had only just begun to steady itself after reciprocal tariff turbulence.

But now, conditions are combining to create a perfect storm for the readymade garment sector. Many fear the combined effect could lead to a decline in future orders.

Preferring anonymity, a senior official of a leading European buyer said that overall, 8 percent to 10 percent of garment work orders will be cut for the next season as buyers begin placing orders.

He said retailers and brands across the West are still burdened with unsold winter merchandise, while goods for the current season have already arrived. As a result, orders for the next cycle have slowed.

Amid the fuel crisis, the official said freight costs inside Bangladesh have also climbed. The fare of goods-laden trucks plying between Dhaka and Chattogram has risen, despite no official increase in petroleum prices.

Truck operators, citing fuel rationing, have raised per-truck charges to Tk 50,000 from Tk 38,000. On average, he said fares have increased by around 20 percent since the outbreak of the war.

Moreover, factories that depend on diesel generators are facing mounting disruption. Many report delays in getting adequate supplies, while cotton prices have risen, pushing yarn costs up by 17 percent to 18 percent.

“But buyers are reluctant to absorb higher prices,” said the official. “The consumers will not pay higher prices during the bad times because of an increase in the cost of production. So, at the end of the year, the overall export growth in the garment sector may be much lower than last year.”

Another European buyer, also requesting anonymity, said that the war has slowed down the business and the recovery is still very uncertain.

He added that demand for outerwear in Europe could rise next season as higher energy prices prompt consumers to buy warmer clothing. However, inventories are still elevated.

Ramzul Seraj, managing director of Elite Garments Ltd, which exports to the United States, said demand for garment items in the US has weakened, while factory output in Bangladesh has been hit by diesel shortages.

Delays in production could force some exporters to use more expensive air shipments to meet delivery deadlines, he added.

Masud Kabir, managing director of Motex Fashion, a Gazipur-based sweater factory, said he receives diesel using a special card introduced by the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA). But the supply falls short of covering nearly eight hours of load-shedding.

He can run the factory with the diesel collected from a nearby petrol pump for three and a half hours, he said. As a result, production has suffered.

Anwar Ul Alam Chowdhury, chairman of Evince Group, said the government is supplying diesel, but factories require larger volumes to operate generators smoothly.

Md Fazlul Hoque, managing director of Plummy Fashions, said inadequate diesel supplies have also disrupted his operations. At the same time, freight charges for sea shipments have increased, along with prices of cotton, yarn and polyester.

The combined effect, Hoque said, is a likely decline in future orders.

Mohammad Hatem, president of the Bangladesh Knitwear Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BKMEA), said some competing countries such as Turkey are expanding exports despite the war, helped by their proximity to Europe and the United States and more reliable energy supplies.

He also expressed concern that recurring two-to-three-hour power cuts could lead to greater reliance on costly air freight.

BGMEA Director Faisal Samad said the association is in contact with buyers, urging them to take into account the exceptional circumstances created by the global oil crisis. Since April 13, member factories have been able to access diesel on a priority basis through a special card facility.

“Even so, overall productivity has declined because of insufficient fuel supplies,” he said.

BGMEA President Mahmud Hasan Khan said buyers also want factories to keep running as this is a global crisis.

The DSE Brokers Association of Bangladesh (DBA) has teamed up with the Japan Securities Dealers Association (JSDA) to foster sustainable development, enhance efficiency, and strengthen international cooperation in Bangladesh’s capital market.

Takashi Hibino, chairman and CEO of JSDA, and Saiful Islam, president of DBA, signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) on April 9, according to a press release issued by the DBA today.

Under the agreement, the two organisations will collaborate in several key areas to support the development of the securities market, including the exchange of laws and regulations related to financial investment businesses and capital markets.

They will also work on developing governance frameworks, policy-making processes, and operational practices of self-regulatory organisations; strengthening supervision and compliance mechanisms; enhancing efficient financial transaction systems; fostering innovation in investment instruments and services; and expanding investor education programmes.

Additionally, both organisations will extend cooperation and consultation on other areas of mutual interest as needed.

Commenting on the agreement, the DBA president said the deal represents a significant advancement for Bangladesh’s capital market.

Partnering with a well-established and experienced self-regulatory organisation like JSDA will play a crucial role in strengthening market structure, governance, and institutional capacity, he said.

“We believe this collaboration will facilitate the exchange of global best practices and contribute to making our capital market more modern, transparent, and investor-friendly.”

Islam expressed optimism that the MoU would help build a more organised, dynamic, and internationally aligned capital market in Bangladesh, benefiting all market participants.

Ongoing tensions in the Middle East and uncertainty over domestic fuel supply continued to erode investor confidence, keeping the Dhaka stock market on a downward trajectory throughout the week.

Although trading opened on a mildly positive note, the momentum quickly faded as selling pressure intensified. Within a few sessions, major indices slipped, reflecting growing caution among investors.

Midweek, bargain hunters briefly returned to the market, taking advantage of lower prices and triggering a short-lived recovery. However, the rebound failed to sustain due to the absence of strong positive triggers or policy support. By the week's end, selling pressure resumed, leaving the market firmly in bearish territory.

The benchmark DSEX index edged down by 0.86 points to close at 5,257. The blue-chip DS30 fell 12 points to 1,990, while the Shariah-based DSES rose slightly by 3 points to 1,066. The SME index (DSMEX) dropped sharply by 31 points to 1,054.

Despite weak sentiment, trading activity increased. Average daily turnover rose 22.2% to Tk818 crore, up from Tk670 crore in the previous week. Total weekly turnover stood at Tk3,273 crore across four sessions, slightly lower than Tk3,348 crore a week earlier.

Market capitalisation declined by 0.44% to Tk6,85,632 crore. Of the 411 issues traded, 213 advanced, 142 declined, 35 remained unchanged, and 22 saw no trading activity.

Market analysts said global instability and fears of a potential energy crisis are key factors influencing investor behaviour. Government remarks on stock market restructuring have also prompted many investors to stay on the sidelines, putting the market in a wait-and-see mode.

In its weekly review, the market showed a flat-to-negative trend with volatile movements, reflecting a lack of clear direction. Early in the week, some buying interest emerged in December-closing stocks on expectations of favourable earnings. However, worries over ceasefire negotiations in the Middle East triggered renewed selling pressure.

Subsequent sessions saw intermittent bargain hunting, but gains were limited by cautious selling in large-cap stocks ahead of corporate earnings announcements.

Sector-wise, engineering stocks led turnover with 17.2%, followed by pharmaceuticals (11.6%) and general insurance (10.3%). Performance remained mixed, with ceramic, IT, and general insurance sectors posting gains, while banking, jute, and service sectors declined.

The Chittagong Stock Exchange also ended lower, with the CASPI index falling 0.08% to 14,762 and the CSCX index closing at 9,040.

Analysts remain cautious about near-term market stability unless fuel supply conditions improve, global tensions ease, and clearer policy direction emerges.

Despite a broader market downturn amid the Middle East conflict, several fundamentally weak and loss-making stocks – mostly from the non-bank financial institution (NBFI) sector – emerged as the top gainers on the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) in March.

According to monthly DSE data, five of the top 10 gainers were NBFIs, led by International Leasing and Financial Services, which surged 100% to close at Tk3.20 per share. Premier Leasing and Finance rose 83.33% to Tk3.30, while People's Leasing and Financial Services and Fareast Finance each gained 76.47% to Tk3. FAS Finance and Investment also saw a 70.59% increase to Tk3.90.

The remaining gainers included textile firms Hamid Fabrics and Familytex (BD), IFIC Bank First Mutual Fund, engineering firm Atlas Bangladesh, and Pacific Denims, reflecting a mix of low-cap and speculative stocks.

In total, 390 stocks were traded during the month, of which 173 advanced, 183 declined, and 34 remained unchanged, indicating a generally weak market trend.

Sector-wise, manufacturing stocks – including pharmaceuticals, textiles, engineering, cement, and food – accounted for the largest share of turnover at 46.86%, or Tk4,785 crore out of Tk10,211 crore. The financial sector, comprising banks, NBFIs, and insurance, contributed 29.97%, while the services and miscellaneous sector made up 23.09%.

Market insiders say the sharp rise in these stocks follows a prolonged slump, with many NBFIs previously hitting rock-bottom prices amid restructuring and liquidation concerns. Such rallies are often driven by speculative trading rather than strong fundamentals.

A similar trend was observed in February, when several struggling NBFIs posted sharp price increases after steep declines, highlighting continued volatility in the segment

The government has increased retail fuel prices at the consumer level, citing rising global oil market trends.

According to a gazette notification issued by the Power, Energy and Mineral Resources Division tonight (18 April), new prices will take effect from 12am Sunday (19 April).

Under the revised structure, diesel will cost Tk115 per litre, octane Tk140, petrol Tk135 and kerosene Tk130.

The latest adjustment represents a sharp increase across all major fuel categories. Diesel has been raised by Tk15 per litre, octane by Tk20, petrol by Tk19 and kerosene by Tk18.

The notification stated that the move was necessary to maintain stability in supply and ensure adjustment with global price trends.

Earlier, on 24 March, the BERC increased jet fuel prices by around 80% for domestic routes and nearly 79% for international routes in a single adjustment.

Officials said the latest revision was intended to align domestic prices with the international market, where oil prices have surged since the beginning of the Iran war on 28 February.

The government had previously resisted increasing fuel prices despite a steep rise in import costs, fearing that a higher diesel price would trigger transport fare increases, raise commodity prices and add to inflation.

However, officials said the growing cost of subsidies eventually left the government with little choice but to increase retail rates.

Bangladesh's oil import costs have increased significantly since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted supplies and forced the country to buy fuel from non-traditional sources and the spot market.

The government had kept fuel prices unchanged for April, saying it wanted to protect consumers from further hardship.

Following the start of the Iran war, crude oil prices climbed to as high as around $116 a barrel from about $70-75 before the conflict.

The increase in global fuel prices forced the state-run Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation to spend an additional Tk1,200 crore to import 10 oil consignments in March.

Long queues have persisted at filling stations in recent weeks because of fuel shortages. Officials said panic buying and hoarding were major reasons behind the shortage.

The decision to keep prices unchanged earlier was also partly aimed at discouraging hoarding by reducing the incentive to store fuel in anticipation of a future price rise.

However, as subsidy costs mounted, the government decided to pass part of the burden on to consumers.

Meanwhile, in a Facebook post, Jamaat-e-Islami Ameer Shafiqur Rahman criticised the hike, saying global prices are falling while Bangladesh has increased fuel rates.

He described the move as "deeply unfortunate" and said it would further burden people already struggling with rising living costs.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is holding continuous discussions with Bangladesh over the release of the remaining tranche of its ongoing loan programme, Krishna Srinivasan, director of the IMF's Asia and Pacific Department, has said.

"The [IMF] team is negotiating and is having continuous discussions with the [Bangladesh] authorities, and we will have an update down the road," he said at a press briefing in Washington, DC, on 16 April, replying to a queries including that over Bangladesh's due loan instalment.

Srinivasan said Bangladesh's revenue base remains weak by global standards, limiting the government's capacity to provide support at a time of rising economic pressure.

"People are hurting in Bangladesh, so it is even more important to use whatever resources you have to make it as targeted as possible," he said.

He added that improving revenue collection and addressing structural issues in the financial sector are critical for sustaining growth in both the short and long term.

Srinivasan also highlighted the impact of the global energy shock, noting that Bangladesh, as a major energy importer, remains vulnerable to price volatility in international markets.

"Like other countries in Asia, Bangladesh is also affected by the energy shock," he said. "We are working with the authorities in terms of policy support and programmes, and discussions are ongoing. We will have to wait and see how things pan out."

He said continued engagement between the IMF and Bangladesh will determine the outcome of the negotiations, as the country also explores options for additional external financing.

Under the $5.5 billion IMF programme, disbursements are typically made in June and December. However, the lender withheld the fifth tranche in December to engage with the newly elected government. At the time, then finance adviser Salehuddin Ahmed said $1.3 billion from two tranches could be released together in June.

Srinivasan visited Bangladesh in March and met Prime Minister Tarique Rahman and Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury. After the meetings, the finance minister said the combined tranches were likely in June and that detailed talks would follow at the IMF Spring Meetings in April.

However, no decision has been made even after the meetings, according to a statement issued by the Bangladesh Press Wing. The finance minister also said several issues remain unresolved, with further discussions expected over the next 15 to 20 days.

The Bangladesh Bank has discouraged commercial banks from engaging in forward dollar bookings to prevent artificial supply shortages in the spot market that could drive up the greenback's price.

Speaking to The Business Standard, senior officials at the central bank said several banks sharply increased forward bookings after conflict escalated in the Middle East, prompting fears that the dollar could become more expensive in the coming months.

Forward foreign currency selling is a transaction in which a bank or another party commits to selling a specified amount of foreign currency at a pre-determined exchange rate on a future date. The mechanism is commonly used by businesses and financial institutions to hedge against exchange rate fluctuations.

Under existing Bangladesh Bank guidelines, authorised dealer banks may undertake forward sales only against the genuine needs of customers and must ensure that the contracts are intended to neutralise exchange rate risk.

Banks may buy forward from exporters, foreign currency account holders, exchange houses, and other counterparties, but are required to cover their own risk as soon as possible.

The forward price is determined by adding a premium to the current price.

According to central bank officials, banks have been verbally advised not to rely on dollars purchased from the spot market to meet forward contracts. Instead, they have been encouraged to undertake forward sales only against their own forward purchases.

A senior Bangladesh Bank official said that a small number of banks had been increasing forward bookings aggressively.

"After the matter came to the attention of the Bangladesh Bank, the banks were told to avoid further forward booking because rising forward sales create pressure in the spot market, increasing the risk of a higher dollar rate," the official said.

"When banks cannot obtain enough dollars in the spot market to meet demand, the exchange rate rises. If banks continue to make excessive forward commitments, the dollar could become more expensive again," he explained.

The official said banks that had previously contributed to instability in the foreign exchange market by purchasing large amounts of dollars in May 2022 were among those increasing forward bookings this month.

"However, the Bangladesh Bank has been able to bring the situation under control before it became more serious," the official added.

Demand for forward bookings rises

Industry insiders said demand for forward bookings rose sharply from the middle of March and remained strong until the first week of April. Although demand eased somewhat by mid-April, businesses remain interested in locking in exchange rates because of uncertainty surrounding the Middle East conflict.

Bankers said demand could rise further if the conflict continues, if there are renewed expectations of a higher dollar rate, or if disruption occurs in the Strait of Hormuz.

A senior executive at a private commercial bank said the Bangladesh Bank had instructed lenders not to use dollars bought in the spot market for forward selling.

"We have been told that forward selling should be backed only by forward buying. But that is not possible for many banks because most do not have sufficient forward purchases in stock," he said.

"At the same time, businesses are seeking more forward bookings than before."

Several leading business groups have faced difficulties securing forward contracts since the central bank began discouraging the practice.

A senior executive at one of the country's largest conglomerates said the company had approached several private banks over the past week to arrange forward contracts, but the banks refused in line with the central bank's instruction.

According to the managing directors of some banks. The central bank had recently contacted them to seek details of how their institutions had calculated forward contracts after demand increased following the outbreak of war.

Despite the rise in forward demand, bankers said the supply of dollars in the market remains relatively comfortable and the exchange rate has begun to ease after a brief rise.

According to bankers, the dollar rate started falling after the Bangladesh Bank purchased dollars from commercial banks through auctions for two consecutive days at Tk122.75.

A senior official at a leading private company said his firm settled an import letter of credit at Tk122.98 per dollar last Wednesday, compared with Tk123.10 on Tuesday.

Cenbank move questioned

Zahid Hussain, former lead economist at the World Bank's Dhaka office, questioned the central bank's argument that forward booking itself would increase the dollar rate.

"The pressure on the dollar is coming from international markets. The increase in the taka-dollar exchange rate in Bangladesh has broadly matched the rise in the international dollar index," he said.

He also said there was a contradiction between Bangladesh Bank's commitment to a market-based exchange rate and its intervention in the market whenever the exchange rate fluctuates.

"If banks are forced to undertake forward selling only against forward buying, or if forward booking is discouraged altogether, that is itself a form of intervention that prevents the market from functioning naturally," he said.

Arfan Ali, former managing director of Bank Asia, said forward booking should be viewed as a legitimate risk management tool.

He said the volume of foreign exchange transactions in Bangladesh remains relatively low compared with many other countries, and most businesses have not traditionally engaged in hedging.

"Businesses may not previously have felt much need for forward booking. But the war has changed the situation, so demand has increased as companies seek to reduce their risk," he said. "This market should be allowed to become more viable."

Bangladesh Bank yesterday purchased $50 million from four commercial banks at a cut-off rate of Tk 122.75 per US dollar, as strong remittance earnings boosted inflows.

Remittance inflows reached an all-time high of $3.75 billion in March. Inflows stood at $1.60 billion between April 1 and April 14, up 25.2 percent year-on-year, Bangladesh Bank data shows.

The banking regulator on Wednesday resumed dollar purchases after one and a half months, buying $70 million from Islami Bank Bangladesh.

With the latest transaction, the central bank’s total dollar purchases for April rose to $120 million, officials said.

Cumulatively, the central bank has bought $5.61 billion from the market so far in the fiscal year 2025-26 (FY26).

Bangladesh Bank began purchasing dollars at the start of the current fiscal year as supply increased, supported by higher export earnings and remittance inflows.

However, between FY21 and FY25, Bangladesh Bank sold more than $25 billion from its foreign exchange reserves to meet import payments for fuel, fertiliser, and food.

Officials of the central bank said that the country’s forex market is currently quite liquid due to high remittance inflows ahead of Eid-ul-Adha.

On the other hand, demand for imports, except for fuel, is set to increase, which is why the Bangladesh Bank is purchasing US dollars from the market, an official added.

Following the recent dollar purchases, gross foreign exchange reserves rose to $35.03 billion on Thursday, up from $34.87 billion a day earlier.

Industry insiders said that the central bank is planning to increase its foreign exchange reserves, as pressure on the forex market is likely to rise in the upcoming days due to higher global oil prices stemming from the Middle East crisis.

On Thursday, the interbank exchange rate of the US dollar stood at Tk 122.70 per dollar, down from Tk 122.75 just two days earlier, reflecting a liquid foreign exchange market.

Gold prices extended gains on Friday, supported by a ‌weaker dollar and comments from Iran’s foreign minister that passage through the Strait of Hormuz remains open during the ceasefire, which pushed oil prices lower and eased some inflation concerns.

Spot gold was up 1.5 percent ​at $4,861.32 per ounce at 1:58 p.m. ET (1758 GMT), rising more than 2 percent so ​far this week.

US gold futures settled 1.5 percent higher at $4,879.60.

The passage of vessels through the strait will be on the coordinated route as already announced by the Ports and Maritime ​Organisation of Iran, Iran’s foreign minister said in a post on X. US President Donald ​Trump said talks could take place this weekend and he believed a deal to end the Iran war would come “soon”.

“Reopening the strait was a key event, and with oil prices under pressure, it is expected ​to ease inflation concerns and revive expectations of interest rate cuts - all good news ​for gold,” said Peter Grant, vice president and senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals.

Gold prices could see ‌short-term gains back above the $5,000 per ounce level, he added.

The US dollar and oil prices extended their fall after the comments on Hormuz opening. A weaker US currency makes bullion more attractive to holders of other currencies.

The heads of Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs) yesterday underscored the importance of close cooperation to support stability and safeguard development progress amid heightened global uncertainty and mounting pressures on member economies.

Meeting on the sidelines of the World Bank Group–International Monetary Fund Spring Meetings, the heads noted that the impacts of current global developments, including the evolving situation in the Middle East, are being felt through higher energy costs, supply chain disruptions, and tighter financial conditions.

“MDBs are working more closely than ever to support our members and clients through a complex and evolving global environment,” said Masato Kanda, president of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and current chair of the MDB Heads Group, according to a press release.

The MDB Heads Group includes the African Development Bank, ADB, AIIB, European Investment Bank, and the World Bank Group, among others.

The institutions will combine financial strength and partnerships to help countries manage immediate pressures and build long-term resilience, he added.

Reaffirming a shared commitment to deep collaboration, the group focused on private sector development, job creation, and infrastructure.

To facilitate this, the heads agreed to establish a working group to mobilise private finance and expand financing capacity through originate-to-distribute approaches.

The leaders also recognised the importance of increasing credit risk transparency in emerging markets through the Global Emerging Markets (GEMs) consortium.

They pledged to scale up local currency financing and develop domestic financial markets to mitigate exchange rate risks.

For sector-specific resilience, the MDBs are strengthening collaboration on critical minerals to support responsible supply chains. They also launched Water Forward, a global initiative to advance investable water systems to drive food security and prosperity.

The heads agreed on a common Value for Money procurement framework to ensure the sustainability of financed projects.

IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva warned Wednesday of difficult times ahead for the global economy if war in the Middle East is unresolved and oil prices stay high, adding that inflation risks could seep into food prices.

“We must brace for tough times ahead” if the conflict persists, she told reporters at a press briefing during the International Monetary Fund and World Bank’s spring meetings in Washington.

The gathering brings government and financial leaders to the US capital this week, with policymakers looking to limit economic fallout from the war.

US-Israeli strikes launched against Iran on February 28 sparked Tehran’s retaliation, virtually closing the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route for oil and fertilizers.

Energy prices have since surged, squeezing countries -- especially vulnerable economies and those dependent on oil imports from the region.

“We are concerned about risks for inflation moving into food prices should the delivery of fertilizers at a reasonable price (not be) restarted soon,” Georgieva said.

But as countries move to limit price shocks on their citizens, Georgieva urged central banks to “wait and see” before adjusting interest rates if they can do so.

She said this was particularly the case where the public has a “well-anchored” expectation of inflation being kept under control.

“If we are to move faster out of the war, it may not be necessary to take action,” she said.

But she conceded that countries where central banks lack such credibility might need to send stronger signals.

For now, “we are still at a time when a faster resolution of hostilities is possible,” she said.

Noting that fallout is “highly asymmetric,” Georgieva urged IMF member countries to come forward to the Washington-based lender if they need financial assistance during the conflict.

Low-income countries spend around 36 percent of their consumption on food, while emerging markets spend about 20 percent, said the IMF’s director of strategy Christian Mumssen in press remarks.

Advanced economies spend about nine percent, he added.

The IMF estimates for now that near-term demand for new fund financing would be in the range of $20 billion to $50 billion.

“Currently, we have 39 programs, and prospective demand for new programs from at least a dozen countries, a number of them in sub-Saharan Africa,” Georgieva said of the fund’s financial aid.

“The sooner we act, the more we would protect the economy and the people,” she added.

She stressed the need to protect fiscal sustainability as countries move to help their populations, cautioning that “untargeted measures, export controls or broad-based tax cuts” could serve to “prolong the pain of high prices.”