Bangladesh's request for a smooth-transition mechanism after the graduation from the least-developed-country (LDC) category is "legitimate", says WTO deputy chief Xiangchen Zhang about the country's move for getting the process deferred.
The country will face changes in preferential treatment and new obligations under World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules after the graduation.

The Deputy Director-General (DDG) of the global trade body expressed his opinion here Wednesday at a training session titled 'The WTO's Work on Trade and development' held at the WTO headquarters in Geneva with participation of journalists from different countries. The session was organised under the Journalist Programme on Global Trade Polices in the context of the WTO Public Forum 2026.

"LDC graduation is an important subject in the WTO. Bangladesh, together with some other LDCs like Cambodia and Nepal, will graduate from the group. First of all, it is a subject for celebration. It is a demonstration of the progress you have made," Zhang said.

At the same time, he noted, graduating LDCs have legitimate grounds to seek a smooth transition to help them adjust to the changes arising from the loss of LDC-specific trade benefits.

Eligibility for LDC-specific support measures for a period beyond graduation is referred to as a smooth-transition period.

Bangladesh is scheduled to graduate from the world's poor-country club in November this year. The government has, however, submitted a formal request for deferring the gradation for three more years. If approved by the United Nations, the country will graduate in 2029.

Zhang drew an analogy with policies in China, saying that some regions below a certain poverty line receive additional government support and preferential treatment. When those regions move above the threshold, the benefits are withdrawn, which is a sign of progress but can also justify a transitional period.

"In China, our policy is that we give those countries some transitional period of time -- five years -- to continue to enjoy the preferential treatment," he told the journalists.

He said some WTO members had already responded positively to calls for extending preferential treatment for graduating LDCs for an additional three years. He mentions the European Union, the United Kingdom, Australia and Japan. "Not all the countries did the same," Zhang said, adding that the LDC Group, led by Bangladesh, is continuing to push for a smooth transition while the WTO is facilitating discussions among members.

There are currently 44 LDCs on the United Nations (UN) list of which 37, including Bangladesh, have become WTO members to date. Four LDCs are negotiating to join the WTO now.

The 13th Ministerial Conference (MC13) has provided graduating LDCs additional time to align with WTO disciplines on dispute- settlement system and also be eligible for LDC-specific technical assistance and capacity building.

Referring to his visit to Bangladesh two years ago, Zhang said he had witnessed the country's economic progress and the development of emerging industries, including the pharmaceutical sector.

He said graduating LDCs should also focus on specific areas where the impact of graduation could be significant, particularly emerging industries.

Bangladesh needs to understand the implications of new obligations arising from graduation, particularly those relating to the WTO's Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS), he said.

"The TRIPS obligations are important for this new emerging industry," Zhang said, referring to Bangladesh's pharmaceutical sector.

He notes that Bangladesh had requested WTO assistance and training on intellectual-property rules for both government officials and entrepreneurs.

"I think it is the right approach."

In 2026, the organisation has conducted training on the TRIPS Agreement and Bangladesh's LDC graduation, focusing on intellectual property-related issues and the obligations that will become relevant after graduation.

Zhang has previously highlighted the need for graduating LDCs to prepare for changes in areas that include TRIPS, agricultural policies and non-agricultural subsidies, while stressing the role of WTO technical assistance in supporting the transition.

Meanwhile, Wednesday was the second day of the public forum, WTO's biggest annual outreach event. This year forum focuses on the fast-growing diversification of the trade in services.

Bangladesh and Italy have discussed enhancing investment, technological cooperation and business partnerships in the country's leather sector, including a possible visit by a Bangladeshi delegation to Italy.
The discussion was held between Commerce Minister Khandakar Abdul Muktadir and Italian Ambassador to Bangladesh Antonio Alessandro at the Ministry of Commerce in the city, BSS reports citing a press release.

Prime Minister's Finance and Planning Adviser Professor Dr Rashed Al Mahmud Titumir was present at the meeting.

Muktadir said the proposed Italy visit would focus on attracting new investors, expanding technological cooperation and strengthening international partnerships in Bangladesh's leather industry.

The Italian ambassador proposed visits to Milan, Florence and Rome to showcase Bangladesh's leather-sector capabilities, environmentally friendly production facilities and investment opportunities to Italian businesses and investors.

He suggested holding meetings with business organisations in Milan, visiting leather industry areas in Tuscany in Florence and conducting government-level discussions in Rome to establish effective contacts with potential investors.

The meeting also underscored the importance of ensuring international-standard certification, environmental management and an investment-friendly environment in Bangladesh's leather industry.

The Italian ambassador said progress in these areas would help expand mutually beneficial partnerships between companies of the two countries.

Waste management at the Savar Leather Industrial Estate also came up for discussion.

The Bangladesh side said large factories would be encouraged to develop their own waste-management facilities while central facilities would continue to be maintained for smaller factories. Plans are also being taken to promote the recycling of industrial waste.

The meeting also discussed the registration process of the Italy Chamber of Commerce and Industry in Bangladesh.

Both sides expressed optimism about further strengthening trade, investment and industrial cooperation between Bangladesh and Italy.

Bangladesh's foreign exchange reserves stood at US$36.32 billion (gross), according to the latest data released by Bangladesh Bank (BB) on Wednesday.

The country's gross foreign exchange reserves reached US$36.32 billion, while reserves calculated under the IMF's BPM6 methodology stood at US$31.47 billion.

The Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) has approved the winding-up proposal for the UFS-Pragati Life Unit Fund, a mutual fund.

Bangladesh General Insurance Company (BGIC), trustee of the fund, disclosed the regulatory approval in a statement today (15 September), citing a BSEC letter dated 9 August.

As trustee, BGIC has begun the process of liquidating the fund in accordance with the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (Mutual Fund) Rules, 2025. Further directives on asset realisation and investor settlements are expected from the trustee in due course.
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The open-ended mutual fund was sponsored by Pragati Life Insurance, which maintained an investment of Tk98 lakh in the vehicle, while management responsibilities rested with Universal Financial Solutions Limited (UFS).

The liquidation follows years of profound regulatory investigations and financial scandals surrounding the asset management company. Stock market regulators first unearthed financial misappropriations by UFS officials, including Managing Director Syed Hamza Alamgir, back in 2022.

The malfeasance widened significantly when the BSEC moved to file cases against top executives for laundering Tk170.69 crore across multiple open-ended portfolios, including the UFS-Bank Asia Unit Fund, UFS-IBBL Shariah Unit Fund, UFS-Padma Life Islamic Unit Fund, and UFS-Popular Life Unit Fund.

In December 2023, the Anti-Corruption Commission (ACC) filed a formal case against 24 individuals, implicating high-ranking UFS personnel, officials from the Investment Corporation of Bangladesh who served as fund trustees, and independent auditors for embezzling Tk311 crore of investors' funds.

According to ACC case filings, Syed Hamza Alamgir and his co-accused executed coordinated forgeries, systematically routing investments through unauthorised bank accounts and business entities to obscure the illicit origins of the money.

Investigators documented widespread regulatory breaches, which included showing Tk59.40 crore in unauthorised investments, generating Tk148 crore in fake fixed deposit receipts, and failing to deposit Tk63.87 crore accrued from share sales back into the fund. Additional siphoning involved millions collected under the guise of management and trustee fees.

The sweeping financial fraud also prompted the securities regulator to penalise audit firm Ahmed Zaker and Co, barring them from the stock market for collaborating in the systematic embezzlement of public savings.

The Bangladesh Financial Intelligence Unit (BFIU) has ordered brokerage houses, merchant banks and other capital market intermediaries to set up dedicated compliance units as part of a broader move to strengthen safeguards against money laundering and terrorist financing.

The directive, issued in a circular yesterday (15 September) to the chief executives of brokerage houses, merchant banks, portfolio managers, securities custodians and asset management companies, requires each institution to establish a Central Compliance Unit (CCU) at its head office, headed by a chief anti-money laundering compliance officer (CAMLCO).

They must also appoint branch anti-money laundering compliance officers (BAMLCOs) and formulate specific policies to prevent money laundering and terrorist financing.

Under the new rules, firms must establish whether any influential person is among the beneficial owners associated with capital market-related institutions.

They must collect complete and accurate customer information from reliable sources, including national identity cards, passports and birth registration certificates, when opening accounts. Electronic know-your-customer (e-KYC) procedures may also be used where necessary.

The institutions must regularly screen customers to identify links with individuals or entities listed under United Nations Security Council resolutions or designated by the Bangladesh government as prohibited persons or entities.

They have also been instructed to monitor transactions regularly and report any complex, inconsistent or apparently illegal transaction in writing to the BAMLCO. The CCU must verify such transactions and, where necessary, report them immediately to the BFIU through the GoAML web-based system.

The circular stressed that such reports must be kept strictly confidential.

The firms must conduct self-assessments every six months using a prescribed checklist and arrange independent verification through their internal audit departments.

The BFIU also directed them to conduct background checks when recruiting staff, provide regular training on anti-money laundering measures, and retain customer and transaction records for at least five years after an account or business relationship is terminated.

Aamra Technologies Ltd's loss nearly doubled in the third quarter of fiscal 2025-26 as a sharp decline in sales and higher finance costs weighed on profitability.

The company reported a loss per share (EPS) of Tk0.65 for January-March 2026, compared with Tk0.33 in the same quarter a year earlier, according to its unaudited financial statements disclosed today (15 September).

For the nine months through March, its loss per share rose to Tk1.84 from Tk0.97 a year earlier.

The company said declining sales adversely affected all major financial indicators, while higher finance expenses further weakened its performance.
Its operating cash flow also deteriorated sharply. Net operating cash flow per share (NOCFPS) turned negative at Tk0.18 during July 2025-March 2026, compared with positive Tk1.33 in the same period a year earlier.

Aamra Technologies attributed the decline mainly to lower cash collection, while higher finance expenses also contributed. It said operating expenditure and supplier payments had improved compared with the previous year.

The weaker earnings and cash generation were reflected in its net asset value (NAV), which fell to Tk16.62 per share as of 31 March 2026 from Tk18.46 as of 30 June 2025.

The company's financial performance had been deteriorating since the beginning of the fiscal year. It reported losses per share of Tk0.52 in the first quarter and Tk0.67 in the second quarter, compared with Tk0.25 and Tk0.39, respectively, a year earlier. Its six-month loss per share stood at Tk1.19, up from Tk0.64.

Meanwhile, the company's share price has shown unusual volatility in recent months.

The stock rose nearly 59% from Tk14.50 on 23 June to Tk23.10 on 9 August on the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE), before falling 33% in 24 days to Tk16.30 yesterday.

The unusual trading activity has drawn regulatory attention. The Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) has instructed the DSE to investigate the abnormal price movement and trading in the shares.

The probe will examine possible market manipulation, insider trading and the role of brokers in suspicious transactions.

The proposed price hike of bakery products, including biscuits and bread has been put on hold for the time being following a meeting between the government and business leaders yesterday (15 September).

The decision was taken at a meeting held at the Ministry of Commerce with Commerce Minister Khandakar Abdul Muktadir in the chair, according to a press release.

The meeting discussed in detail the recent announcement by businesses to increase prices of bakery products and the costs involved in their production and marketing.

Representatives of relevant business organisations attended the meeting.

Following the discussion, business leaders agreed to keep the decision to increase the prices of biscuits and bread suspended for the time being.

Meanwhile, a committee headed by the chairman of the Bangladesh Trade and Tariff Commission (BTTC) has been formed to review the costs related to the production and marketing of bakery products, prices of raw materials, taxes and duties, and other relevant issues.

The committee has been asked to submit its report within seven days. The government will take further decisions after reviewing the issues concerned based on the committee's report.

The government said at the meeting that it would take initiatives to keep the market of essential food items stable, giving the highest priority to public and consumer interests without causing losses to businesses.

It also said necessary measures would be taken in coordination with all relevant stakeholders to ensure the supply of products at reasonable prices.

Commerce Secretary Md Ataur Rahman Khan and leaders of bakery product businesses were present at the meeting.

Bangladesh is seeking alternative sources of crude oil as rising security risks around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait are making shipments from the Middle East longer and more costly.

The Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation (BPC) has already started discussions with potential suppliers and hopes to import crude from a new source soon, its newly appointed chairman Md Rafiqul Islam said yesterday.

“We have already spoken to representatives of an alternative source about importing crude oil. We are hopeful that we will be able to import crude from an alternative market very soon,” he told reporters at an exchange-of-views meeting at the BPC headquarters in Chattogram.

He said BPC began exploring alternative sources after the Middle East crisis escalated in March.

Following tests of crude from different countries, Eastern Refinery found oil from four countries -- Nigeria, Malaysia, Norway and Algeria -- compatible with its existing refining process.

The refinery tested Nigeria’s Bonny crude, Malaysia’s Malaysian Blend, Norway’s Alvheim Blend and Algerian crude and found that all four could be processed using its existing facilities.

Eastern Refinery submitted its findings to BPC in early April.

The state-owned refinery has the capacity to process around 1.4-1.5 million tonnes of crude oil a year. It currently processes Arabian Light crude from Saudi Arabia and Murban crude from the United Arab Emirates.

These two grades are used to produce 13 types of petroleum products, including diesel, bitumen and petrol.

Rafiqul Islam said there would be no fuel shortage until December, as the country has sufficient stocks and confirmed import orders.

The government has both short- and long-term plans to meet fuel demand, he said.

Meanwhile, BPC has almost finalised an LPG import deal following several rounds of tenders. The consignment is expected to arrive by the end of this month, the chairman said.

The move to diversify crude sources comes as security risks around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait are forcing Bangladesh-bound fuel vessels to take longer and costlier routes.

Bangladesh Shipping Corporation’s crude oil tanker MT Ninemia, carrying nearly 100,000 tonnes of crude, arrived at Chattogram port on Saturday after taking an alternative route through the Suez Canal, the Mediterranean, the Strait of Gibraltar and around the Cape of Good Hope.

The voyage took around 50 days and incurred an additional cost of Tk 66.63 crore.

A local official of the tanker told The Daily Star that the vessel could have reached Chattogram from Yanbu in around 13-15 days had it sailed through the Bab el-Mandeb and the Indian Ocean.

Some 55 percent of knitwear factories have seen international retailers and brands either cancel or reduce work orders amid the ongoing energy crisis, according to a survey by the Bangladesh Knitwear Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BKMEA).

The disruption has also caused widespread production losses, shipment delays and higher costs, with nearly two-third of the surveyed factories facing the risk of defaulting on bank loans, according to the survey findings released yesterday.

The BKMEA surveyed 20 percent of its member factories in Narayanganj, Gazipur, Chattogram, Dhaka and other areas between August 21 and September 14, BKMEA Executive President Fazlee Shamim Ehsan confirmed to The Daily Star.

Nearly 78 percent of the surveyed factories reported partial production shutdowns, while 87 percent faced shipment delays. Around 60 percent had to offer discounts to buyers because of the disruptions.

Electricity shortages were the biggest reported disruption, affecting around 90 percent of the factories.

The crisis has also increased production costs. Around 92 percent of the surveyed factories incurred additional costs for alternative fuels, while a similar proportion reported wasted labour and working hours.

Nearly 89 percent said they faced the risk of losing buyers’ confidence, while about 59 percent faced the risk of defaulting on bank loans. Around 7 percent reported completely shutting down production.

“The garment sector is going through a difficult time. Even though many of us are doing well… some factories got shut down. If the government gives us good policy support we can overcome this challenge,” said Fazlee.

90% AFFECTED BY POWER SHORTAGE

The survey showed that electricity shortages were the biggest reported disruption, affecting around 90 percent of the factories. Nearly 75 percent were affected by gas shortages and about 14 percent by other shortages or disruptions.

Among respondents who provided information on gas pressure, supply had fallen by an average of around 78 percent from normal requirements.

The deterioration in electricity supply was also significant. Among respondents who provided information on load-shedding hours, the average daily duration of outages had increased by around 200 percent from the previous period.

The disruptions have had a substantial impact on production. Knitting output fell by an average of 37-38 percent, dyeing production by 51 percent and garment sewing production by 40 percent, according to the survey.

Of the surveyed factories, around 45-46 percent were from Narayanganj, 20 percent from Gazipur, 18 percent from Chattogram, 13 percent from Dhaka and nearly 3 percent from other areas.

The government has raised the commission paid to dealers on urea, triple superphosphate (TSP), diammonium phosphate (DAP) and muriate of potash (MOP) by Tk 1 to Tk 3 per kilogramme, while keeping the prices paid by farmers unchanged.

The Finance Division issued the order following a letter from the Ministry of Agriculture dated September 14. The revised dealer-level prices will take effect from July 1, 2027.

The move comes amid concerns over alleged hoarding and supply control by some dealers and retailers to create an artificial shortage of fertiliser and drive up prices, according to a Special Branch report.

Shahnaz Akhter, agriculture economist for fertiliser management and monitoring at the Ministry of Agriculture, said dealers previously received a commission of Tk 2 per kg, which has now been raised to Tk 3.

Dealers had long been demanding the increase, citing rising loading and unloading costs. Their commission had not been revised since 2009, Shahnaz said.

Under the revised rates, the dealer-level price of urea has been reduced from Tk 25 to Tk 24 per kg, while the farmer-level price remains Tk 27.

The dealer-level price of DAP has been cut from Tk 19 to Tk 18 per kg, with farmers continuing to pay Tk 21. The price of TSP for dealers has been reduced from Tk 25 to Tk 24, while the farmer-level price remains Tk 27. For MOP, the dealer-level price has fallen from Tk 18 to Tk 17, with farmers continuing to pay Tk 20.

Meanwhile, a Special Branch report alleged that collusion among dealers and retailers to create an artificial shortage through hoarding and supply control was causing discontent among farmers.

The report was sent to the Ministry of Home Affairs on September 8 with 15 recommendations to address the problems identified.

The recommendations include ensuring a transparent and competitive process free from political and local influence in appointing dealers, selecting dealers through a digital lottery based on merit, monitoring dealers’ fertiliser stocks and distribution online, and taking swift legal action, including cancellation of dealerships, when irregularities are found.

The Insurance Development and Regulatory Authority (IDRA) aims to improve the claim settlement rate from 57 per cent as of June to at least 75 per cent, as it faces a mammoth volume of unpaid claims worth Tk 70 billion.
At a programme at the IDRA office in the capital on Monday, IDRA Chairman Mir Nadia Nivin said the regulator had adopted a two-pronged strategy to reach the goal by gradually clearing the backlog of unpaid claims. She, however, did not mention any timeframe within which the target will be achieved.

Under the strategy, she said, IDRA has been holding meetings with owners and chief executive officers of insurers to identify and resolve obstacles to claim settlement, including compliance-related issues. At the same time, it has been monitoring financially distressed insurers.

Monday's programme marked the second phase of a special claim settlement initiative, under which Tk 230.4 million in long-pending claims was paid to 5,868 policyholders of five life insurance companies.

The IDRA chairman, who took office in July this year, said quick settlement of long-pending legitimate claims was one of her top priorities. The initiative was aimed at protecting policyholders' rights and restoring discipline and public trust in the insurance sector, she added.

The payments were made possible by mobilising funds from various sources, including the sale of assets and encashment of security bonds of the insurers concerned.

Ms Nivin said IDRA was conducting one-to-one governance review meetings with insurance companies to determine why legitimate claims remained unpaid and what operational or compliance-related problems were delaying settlement.

"Some companies have ancillary and compliance-related problems," she said, adding that the regulator is working with relevant parties to resolve the issues quickly.

Of the country's 82 insurance companies, roughly eight life insurers are facing serious difficulties, and their failure to settle policyholders' claims on time has eroded public trust across the industry, according to the IDRA chief.

These seven to eight troubled life insurers are being dealt with separately, but IDRA's intervention is not confined to those companies.

"We have taken a holistic approach to improving claim settlement across the entire insurance sector," she said.

Companies facing moderate-level problems are also being brought under close supervision, with their financial capacity being reviewed and pressure applied to accelerate settlement of legitimate claims, she added.Banking Sector Analysis

Finance minister praises IDRA initiatives

Meanwhile, Finance and Planning Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury praised IDRA's ongoing reform initiatives during a visit to its office on Monday, particularly its efforts to strengthen governance, transparency and accountability in the insurance sector.

The minister welcomed the move to settle long-pending legitimate claims, saying payment of policyholders' rightful dues would help rebuild public confidence in insurance.

"Restoring policyholders' confidence is crucial to strengthening the insurance industry," he said, adding that visible steps were already contributing to rebuilding trust.

Mr Khosru also said the government was supporting IDRA in making insurance companies more effective, efficient and dynamic through the introduction of risk-based supervision.

He stressed that protecting the rights and interests of policyholders must remain a top priority, adding that customer complaint resolution and service-monitoring mechanisms should also be strengthened to ensure better protection for policyholders.

The minister underscored the need to increase public awareness of insurance, financial security and risk management, saying IDRA's initiatives should make insurance more accessible, understandable and trustworthy to ordinary people.

He praised the reform measures being pursued under the leadership of Ms Nivin and expressed hope that the reforms would make the insurance sector more robust, transparent and customer-centric, enabling it to play a greater role in the national economy.Stock Market Updates

IDRA steps up claim settlement

In the second phase of the claim settlement initiative, Padma Islami Life Insurance paid around Tk 120 million to 3,600 policyholders.

Homeland Life Insurance settled claims worth Tk 49.8 million for 1,145 policyholders, while Fareast Islami Life Insurance paid Tk 50 million to 580 policyholders.

Sunflower Life Insurance paid Tk 5.53 million to 300 policyholders, and Sunlife Insurance settled Tk 5.01 million in claims for 243 policyholders.

The second-phase payments followed the first phase, executed on September 3, when IDRA facilitated the settlement of claims worth Tk 145.1 million for 2,549 policyholders of seven life insurers.

The first phase covered policyholders of Baira Life, Fareast Islami Life, Golden Life, Homeland Life, Padma Islami Life, Progressive Life and Sunflower Life Insurance.

The latest move is part of IDRA's broader effort to address the sector's chronic claim settlement problem, which has left thousands of policyholders waiting for years to receive legitimate dues.

The IDRA chairman said the effort to pay policyholders back would continue, and the remaining valid but unpaid claims would be verified and scrutinised before being settled.

Moody's Ratings has revised Bangladesh's sovereign outlook to stable from negative, citing easing political and external pressures, stronger foreign exchange reserves and record remittance inflows.

The rating agency, in its latest assessment released today (15 September), affirmed Bangladesh's long-term issuer and senior unsecured ratings at B2 and its short-term issuer ratings at Not Prime.

Moody's said the risks that had prompted the negative outlook had become more balanced at the B2 rating level.

It said the post-election transition and the government's strong mandate had reduced the risk that political uncertainty would derail reforms.

Bangladesh's external position has also strengthened, supported by higher foreign exchange reserves, a more flexible exchange rate regime and record remittances that have helped offset increased energy import costs, the agency said.

Continued engagement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and other international financial institutions remains an important anchor for external financing and reforms, although discussions are still under way over the terms of a successor IMF programme.

Reserves strengthen, growth recovery gradual

Bangladesh's foreign exchange reserves had risen to around $32.9 billion by mid-2026, equivalent to more than four months of import cover, from about $21.4 billion at the end of 2024.

Moody's attributed the improvement to record remittances increasingly flowing through formal banking channels, the more flexible exchange rate regime and the removal of earlier market distortions.

The agency expects economic growth to recover gradually. Real GDP growth rose to 4.1% in FY2026 from 3.5% in FY2025 and is projected to reach 4.3% in FY2027 before accelerating to around 4.9% from FY2028 as investment and industrial activity normalise.

Inflation, however, is expected to remain around 9% before easing gradually.

Banking sector remains key weakness

Despite the improved outlook, Moody's retained Bangladesh's B2 rating, citing the country's narrow revenue base, weak debt affordability and significant vulnerabilities in the banking sector.

The agency said reforms had revealed system-wide non-performing loans of around 32.8%, while banks would require recapitalisation equivalent to around 10% of GDP to restore regulatory capital adequacy.

Such a requirement could place a significant burden on the government because of limited fiscal space and growing reliance on domestic bank financing, Moody's said.

Banking-sector liquidity, meanwhile, has remained stable, with system-wide deposits growing by around 12% year-on-year to March 2026. This suggests the sector's main weakness is solvency rather than liquidity, according to the agency.

Narrow revenue base constrains fiscal strength

Moody's said Bangladesh has one of the narrowest government revenue bases among rated sovereigns, limiting its fiscal flexibility.

Interest payments absorb close to 30% of government revenue, even though government debt remains relatively moderate at around 40% of GDP.

The agency expects debt to rise gradually over the medium term because of persistent primary deficits and potential costs associated with supporting the banking sector.

Continued access to concessional financing should nevertheless help contain borrowing costs and refinancing risks, it said.

Energy, LDC graduation pose risks

Energy supply constraints remain a risk to Bangladesh's growth prospects, Moody's said.

A recent disruption at an LNG import terminal exposed vulnerabilities in the country's energy supply system and caused shortages affecting power generation, industry and fertiliser production.

The agency also warned that Bangladesh's graduation from least-developed-country (LDC) status in the coming years could put pressure on export competitiveness and access to concessional financing.

The ready-made garment (RMG) sector is expected to remain a key pillar of exports, supported by Bangladesh's competitive position. Sustained structural reforms, however, will be needed to realise the country's longer-term growth potential.

What could change the rating?

Moody's said faster-than-expected progress in addressing banking-sector weaknesses, stronger revenue mobilisation, and improvements in institutions and policy effectiveness could create upward pressure on the rating.

Conversely, a material crystallisation of banking-sector liabilities on the government's balance sheet, a weaker growth or fiscal outlook, reduced access to external financing or renewed political instability could put downward pressure on the rating.

When Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury unveiled this fiscal year’s budget, he offered good news to compliant taxpayers, particularly those who file returns early.

“All categories of taxpayers will be able to file returns throughout the year. Those who submit returns early in the year will receive tax incentives,” he told the parliament.

But there is a catch. Taxpayers who have already cleared their full income tax liability before June may be excluded from the new 5 percent early-filing incentive.

This has raised questions about fairness among taxpayers, practitioners and former officials of the National Board of Revenue (NBR).

Under Finance Act 2026, individuals filing between July 1 and September 30 qualify for an incentive equal to 5 percent of tax payable, or Tk25,000, whichever is lower. The problem lies in the phrase “tax payable”, rather than “total tax liability”.

Consider a taxpayer with a final liability of Tk5 lakh who has already paid it in full through advance tax or tax deducted at source (TDS).

When the taxpayer files, there is no tax payable left after adjustments, leaving little scope for the incentive. Another taxpayer with the same liability but an outstanding balance at filing time could receive the full Tk25,000.

Tax practitioners say the provision could discourage the very taxpayers it is meant to reward.

Meanwhile, another taxpayer with an identical liability but an outstanding balance at filing time could pocket the full Tk 25,000.

“If the objective is to encourage voluntary compliance, taxpayers who have already paid their taxes should not be placed at a disadvantage,” said Sabbir Ahmed, tax practitioner and president of the Institute of Chartered Accountants of Bangladesh.

“There should be a distinction between encouraging late taxpayers to file early and rewarding taxpayers who have already demonstrated compliance,” he said.

The issue is particularly relevant for salaried employees, whose taxes are often deducted at source throughout the year, and taxpayers who pay advance tax against expected liability, since such payments are later adjusted against final liability.

Former NBR member Syed Md Aminul Karim said the provision raises questions about equity.

“The person who has been a good taxpayer and has already paid the tax earlier, he is the loser. And the person who has not paid, he is the gainer. This raises a question of equity,” he said.

Aminul said the issue could be addressed through a clarification in the relevant circular rather than a legal amendment.

“The law does not necessarily have to be changed. The explanation in the circular needs to be changed,” he said.

“Those who regularly pay their taxes are facing a disadvantage. I think this is a mistake. It should be corrected,” he added.

Snehasish Barua, director of SMAC Advisory Services Limited, said the provision could particularly disadvantage salaried employees whose taxes are fully deducted at source and deposited with the government.

“Those who work in compliant companies have 100 percent of their tax deducted and deposited into the government treasury,” he said. “So you are effectively penalising the compliant taxpayers and incentivising the non-compliant.”

He suggested calculating the incentive on gross tax liability rather than net payable amount.

“This should have been based on the gross amount, because you are not giving more than Tk25,000 anyway. Since it is based on the net amount, it is creating discrimination here,” he said.

The NBR introduced the incentive as part of changes to the return-filing framework for individual taxpayers, following repeated extensions of filing deadlines.

Under the new provision, returns filed between October 1 and December 31 will face neither incentive nor additional tax.

Those filed between January 1 and March 31 will attract additional tax of 2 percent of payable tax or Tk 3,000, whichever is higher. For returns filed between April 1 and June 30, the additional tax rises to 5 percent of payable tax or Tk 5,000, whichever is higher.

An official involved with the budget process said the new provisions need to be read together to understand the incentive and advance tax requirements.

“Whatever advance tax is payable has to be paid by June. If not, there will be additional interest on the unpaid portion,” the official said. “Suppose a person has Tk 100 tax payable. If he pays Tk 90 by June, he will pay simple interest on the remaining Tk 10.”

Asked whether the provision raises a fairness issue for taxpayers who have already paid in full, the official said, “We are ensuring fairness in this area,” adding that the issue would become clearer when the relevant provisions are considered together.

Another tax official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the original plan was broader.

“Initially there was a plan on the whole tax liability. But it was curtailed by the high-ups,” the official said, adding that there was currently no option to address the issue unless the tax law was amended.

Bangladesh's apparel exports to the US surged 25.65% year-on-year in August, despite a decline in shipments to the market during the first half of 2026.

According to data from the Bangladesh Export Promotion Bureau, compiled by non-government organisation Bangladesh Apparel Voice, the country exported more than $817 million worth of ready-made garments to the US market in August.

In the first two months of the current fiscal year, July and August, Bangladesh's RMG exports to the US totalled $1.61 billion, up 11.42% year-on-year.

The US is Bangladesh's single largest export market. In the fiscal 2025-26, Bangladesh exported more than $7.74 billion worth of RMG to the country.

However, according to the latest statistics from the Office of Textiles and Apparel (Otexa) under the US Department of Commerce, Bangladesh's RMG exports to the US fell 5.75% in the first half of 2026 compared with the same period a year earlier.

"We are seeing better order flows from the US market for the coming months than in the previous months."

Rakibul Alam Chowdhury, managing director, HKC Apparels Ltd
Exporters cautiously optimistic

Exporters have mixed expectations about the market, with some remaining cautious while others are hopeful that shipments will recover in the coming months if geopolitical tensions do not worsen and Bangladesh's energy supply improves.

Rakibul Alam Chowdhury, managing director of Chattogram-based RMG exporter HKC Apparels Ltd, which sends 90% of its exports to the US market, told The Business Standard, "We are seeing better order flows from the US market for the coming months than in the previous months."

He added. "We hope the market will rebound, provided geopolitical tensions do not escalate further and the country's gas and electricity supply situation improves."

Abdullah Hil Nakib, deputy managing director of Team Group, a leading RMG exporter whose exports to the US account for about one-fourth of its total exports, said, "The US market scenario is still not optimistic. It is not like a normal scenario."

Mohiuddin Rubel, CEO of Bangladesh Apparel Voice, said if the current pace of exports is maintained throughout the 12 months, Bangladesh's RMG exports to the US could reach nearly $9 billion in FY27.

Oil prices rose more than 2 percent on Tuesday after attacks on Saudi Arabian energy infrastructure left the kingdom’s East-West pipeline offline, raising fears that damage to energy infrastructure and transport routes could take longer to repair.

Brent crude futures rose $2.5, or 2.37 percent, to $108.18 a barrel at 0813 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate futures were up $2.46, or 2.43 percent, at $103.85 a barrel. Concerns over oil supplies intensified after Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen launched fresh attacks on Saudi Arabia on Monday, while Gulf Arab states postponed planned discussions with Iran.

“Fresh attacks by the Houthis targeting Saudi Arabia may be influencing oil market investors’ expectations about the severity and duration of the conflict,” said Hamad Hussain, senior climate and commodities economist at Capital Economics.

The Houthis on Monday said they fired dozens of missiles and drones at a military airbase in Khamis Mushait in southern Saudi Arabia, targeting aircraft hangars, radar systems, runways and ammunition depots in retaliation for Saudi airstrikes in Yemen.

This followed attacks on Friday on Saudi Arabia, which Riyadh blamed on Iranian-backed fighters in Iraq, that disrupted the country’s East-West pipeline, which allows oil exports to bypass the blockaded Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of global oil supplies previously passed.

Saudi Arabia could exhaust crude available for export within days unless the East-West pipeline resumes operations, according to buyers and traders. The pipeline strike threatened up to 4 percent of global oil supply. “The recent attack may be more severe and could threaten the remaining 2mb/d of recent Yanbu exports, with the latest repair assessments ranging from ‘very soon’ to eight weeks,” Goldman Sachs said in a note.

The attacks on oil infrastructure marked a meaningful escalation of the conflict and increased the probability of Brent rising above $120 a barrel, Goldman Sachs said, citing a scenario in which average Gulf oil output in 2027 remains 4 million barrels per day below pre-war levels.

Commodity vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz dropped to four on Monday, down from 10 a day earlier, preliminary data from Kpler showed on Tuesday, raising concerns about a route that carried about a fifth of global oil supplies before the US-Israeli war on Iran kicked off on February 28.

“In the absence of an adjustment in demand or greater oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, several weeks of the East-West pipeline being closed could lift Brent crude prices towards $130 per barrel,” Hussain said.

Separately, in China, official data showed that oil throughput rose for a second straight month in August, boosted by fuel exports after Beijing eased restrictions in mid-July.

Market intermediaries have proposed reviving the long-suspended pre-opening trading session and introducing new trading strategies and products to improve liquidity and revive activity on the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE).

The proposals came at a meeting between the DSE and representatives of leading brokerage firms held at the DSE boardroom today (15 September), where participants discussed short-, medium- and long-term measures to address the capital market's prolonged weakness.

The brokers also called for a review of debt repayment deadlines and extensions of Bangladesh Bank's special capital market schemes to provide relief to financially distressed intermediaries.

They proposed introducing a members' margin net-off facility to reduce financing costs and ease liquidity-management pressure on brokerage houses.

The meeting was attended by DSE Managing Director Nuzhat Anwar, senior DSE officials and representatives of leading brokerage firms.

Opening the meeting, Nuzhat said the DSE wanted to hear stakeholders' practical experiences and constructive recommendations on the market's development.

She said the exchange would consider the proposals and, where necessary, place them before the DSE board and the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission for further action.

She also said preparations for launching a derivatives market were progressing, with the exchange working to complete the necessary technological infrastructure, including software, within the planned timeframe.

Saiful Islam, president of the DSE Brokers Association (DBA), said the market was going through a difficult and frustrating period, while several longstanding issues remained unresolved.

"Identifying the causes of the current situation and finding ways to overcome them are among the key objectives of the discussion," he said, urging market participants to put forward practical solutions rather than merely identifying problems.

Participants also called for inspection and surveillance activities to become more regular, data-driven, risk-based and transparent.

They recommended that regulatory action be taken after system-based verification of information, with greater focus on unusual price movements and genuine signs of manipulation rather than normal fluctuations in trading volume.

They further stressed the need to diversify the market beyond equities by expanding the range of bonds and other financial instruments. A clearer regulatory framework for dealers' roles and responsibilities was also proposed.

To attract foreign investment, participants recommended identifying and removing policy and procedural barriers, arranging investor-focused seminars and dialogues, and increasing direct engagement with high-net-worth investors and genuine market players.

They also urged the exchange to encourage leading companies to list on the stock market and examine the possibility of allowing share buybacks over the longer term.

Nuzhat said the DSE was strengthening its IT and organisational capacity, with a board-approved plan already under implementation. Training officials and developing data-based software are also underway to make inspection more structured and facilitate data reconciliation.

She said coordinated efforts were also progressing on online account opening, improving retail investor services and introducing T+1 settlement.

The DSE's new website is nearing completion and is scheduled to be launched at a press conference on 22 September. The existing website will remain operational for another two to three months to facilitate the transition and allow improvements based on user feedback.

Nuzhat said the exchange would work with all stakeholders to make its operations more transparent, efficient and accountable while strengthening the broader capital market ecosystem.

Bangladeshi expatriates sent home $1.526 billion in remittances during the first 14 days of September, according to the latest data from Bangladesh Bank.

This reflects a 3.4 percent growth compared to $1.475 billion received during the corresponding period last year.

On September 14 alone, the country received $98 million in remittances.

With the latest figures, total remittance inflows between July 1 and September 14 in fiscal year 2026-27 reached $7.351 billion, marking a 15.3 percent year-on-year growth from $6.375 billion collected during the same period of FY26.

A lack of modernising global trading system and absence of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) would create an uneven turf in which the least-developed countries (LDCs) would lose out in terms of economic growth and exports.Stock Market Updates

The intergovernmental agency dealing with world trade governance rang the alarm bell in the wake of its virtual existential crisis with big powers dabbling in tariff and trade wars.

And, if the current structure of multilateral trade cooperation, under the umbrella of the WTO, is replaced by an unstructured network of free-trade agreements (FTAs), LDCs may lose 16.5 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP), which is more than three times the losses projected for high-income economies.

There are currently 44 LDCs on the United Nations (UN) list of which 37, including Bangladesh, have become WTO members to date. Four LDCs are negotiating to join the WTO now.

The World Trade Report 2026, released Tuesday in Geneva, made these projections. The title of the report is 'A critical juncture for the world trading system'.Bangladesh Economic Report

The report was formally unveiled in a session of the WTO Public Forum 2026. WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala made the formal statement on the report followed by a panel discussion.

The report cautions that inaction to upgrade the trading system could reduce global output by up to 10 per cent.

Earlier, a press conference also took place at the WTO secretariat to present the highlights of the report and reply questions of the media representatives.

WTO Chief Economist Robert Staiger along with report coordinators Roberta Piermartini and Kathryn Lundquist talked at the conference to explain the key features of the report. The press conference was conducted by Ismail Dieng, director of WTO's information and external relations division.

"The report's model simulations compare alternative futures for trade cooperation," said Staiger. The modelling compares three stylised futures.

He said global GDP would fall by 5.1 per cent and global exports by 18.6 per cent in a geo-fragmented world scenario. The fragmented world means the world that splits more sharply along geopolitical lines.

Under this scenario, real GDP is projected to decline by 10.6 per cent in LDCs and 7.3 per cent in middle-income economies, compared with 2.9 per cent in high-income economies.

Again, in an 'FTA world' scenario, global GDP would fall by 6.9 per cent and global exports by 26.9 per cent, added the WTO chief economist.

In the scenario, multilateral cooperation is replaced by a network of free-trade agreements without cooperation between the groupings. There is also an absence of WTO.

LDCs may face as high as 45 per cent of losses in their exports under the FTA world scenario though the losses would be lower at 33 per cent under a geo-fragmented scenario.

Collective LDC exports rose 11 per cent in the last year to US$ 309 billion, after rising by 8.0 per cent in the previous year. The share of LDCs in world merchandise exports also reached 1.21 per cent in 2025, according to WTO statistics.

Bangladesh is the top merchandise exporter amongst the group of LDCs covering around 17 per cent of all LDCs' exports.

There is, however, a reason to be optimistic as per the latest world trade report. It mentions that under the 'enhanced-cooperation scenario', where multilateral trade cooperation is reinforced, global GDP would increase by 2.9 per cent or US$ 3 trillion by 2050 and global exports by 17.9 per cent.

Under the scenario, real GDP in LDCs is projected to increase by 7.7 per cent, compared with 3.1 per cent for middle-income economies and 2.5 per cent for high-income economies. Export gains for the LDCs would be 45 per cent under the scenario.

"The relatively larger gains for LDCs reflect the greater benefits they would derive from tariff-and other trade-cost reductions," adds the report.

As multilateral trading system is facing serious challenges to deliver, it is now necessary to strengthen the trading system through reforms.

The reform could increase global economy by roughly 3 per cent or US$ 3 trillion by 2050 and also enhance global exports by around 20 per cent.

The World Trade Report 2026, just released by the World Trade Organization (WTO) in Geneva today (Tuesay) made these observations. The theme of the report is: ‘A critical juncture for the world trading system.’

wtr2World Trade Report 2026 at a display – WTO Photo

As per the report, for least-developed countries (LDCs), which currently account for less than one per cent of global trade, the gains could be particularly significant.

LDCs' GDP is projected to increase by 7.7 per cent due to benefits they would derive from tariff and other trade cost reductions, according to the report.

“High-income economies stand to gain substantially in absolute terms, with projected GDP gains of about US$ 1.7 trillion in 2023 dollars, reflecting in particular the benefits of lower trade costs in services,” the report continued.

The report is formally unveiled in Geneva on Tuesday at a session of the WTO Public Forum 2026. Earlier, a press conference also took place at the WTO secretariat to present the highlights of the report and reply questions of the media representatives.

WTO Chief Economist Robert Staiger along with report coordinators Roberta Piermartini and Kathryn Lundquist talked at the conference to explain the key features of the report. The press conference was conducted by Ismail Dieng, director of WTO’s information and external relations division.

World Trade Report 2026, however, cautioned that inaction to modernise the trading system could reduce global output by up to 10 per cent.

“The simulations by WTO economists showed that global GDP would fall by 5.1 per cent and global exports by 18.6 per cent in a geo-fragmented world scenario,” said Staiger. “The fragmented world means a world where the multilateral trading system splits into geopolitically aligned blocs.”

Again, in an ‘FTA world’ scenario, global GDP would fall by 6.9 per cent and global exports by 26.9 per cent, added the WTO chief economist.

The FTA world means replacement of the multilateral cooperation is replaced by a network of free trade agreements (FTAS) and absence of the WTO.

Now, if there is an enhanced cooperation in the world, where multilateral trade is reinforced, global GDP would increase by 2.9 per cent and global exports by 17.9 per cent, according to the report.

“The gap between strengthened multilateral cooperation and erosion of the WTO is equivalent to roughly 5 to 10 per cent of global real GDP,” added the report.

“If cooperation is replaced by an unstructured network of free trade agreements, LDCs could lose 16.5 per cent of GDP, more than three times the losses projected for high-income economies,” it further added.

The report mentioned that WTO's present challenges are, in many important respects, a consequence of the system's own achievements.

The multilateral organisation helped to create a more open, integrated and rules-based word economy, along with a situation where trade policy plays a more critical role, it added. As growing trade frictions become more complex, WTO membership also becomes diverse.

Despite various challenges, the WTO rules remain the essential legal foundation for international commerce. “Around 72 per cent of all global merchandise trade still takes place on the core most-favoured-nation (MEN) tariff terms negotiated and committed to by the WTO's 166 members,” the report said.

It also mentioned that though WTO members agree that the organisation WTO needs reform, they have struggled yet to reach agreement on how to update the rules on various issues.

The issues ranged from agriculture, services and development to concerns around transparency, subsidies and national security.

The report categorically said: “The future of the trading system will depend on members' ability to repair what is broken, update what is outdated, preserve what works, and adapt cooperation to new policy spillovers.”

“The world economy that the WTO helped to create does not weaken the case for rules-based cooperation; it makes renewal of that more urgent,” it added.

Robert Staiger, however, made it clear that the report does not prescribe a blueprint for WTO reform. “It highlights areas where adaptation of trade rules may be needed,” he added.

The report acknowledged that the multilateral trading system has delivered substantial gains, but not for all.

“Not all economies have shared equally in these gains,” it said. “Least-developed countries (LDCs) still account for less than I per cent of world trade, and some commodity-dependent economies and those with a low level of participation in global trade have experienced limited improvements or fallen further behind.”

This year’s trade report is the 24th edition of the WTO’s one of the key annual flagship publications. The World Trade Report was first published in 2003 focusing on development.

AI-linked stocks plunged worldwide on Monday after leaders of the biggest artificial intelligence companies warned of potentially existential risks from the technology, shaking confidence in the industry whose vast infrastructure spending has driven world stock markets to record highs.

The selloff rippled through the industry, where companies are increasingly relying on debt and circular financing to fund ambitious AI spending plans even as global borrowing costs, reflected in multi-year-high bond yields, continue to rise.

Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei, in a lengthy essay shared on X on Saturday, called on AI companies to slow the rate at which they advance model capabilities amid mounting fears AI could be misused.

Both Elon Musk, who runs xAI, and Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, said they agree with Amodei. Altman also said the company would not proceed with an IPO this year, citing safety concerns.

CHIP STOCKS LEAD GLOBAL SELLOFF

Wall Street’s major tech index, the Nasdaq 100, slid 1.2 percent to a six-week low in early trading as chip stocks, which have led the AI rally, fell the most, although it pared losses in early afternoon and was last down 0.4 percent.

“If this does lead to sort of a slowdown and a rethink of AI spending, that will have ramifications for the economy and some important sectors of the stock market, because essentially, we’ve been running hot based on AI spending,” said Steve Sosnick, chief market analyst at Interactive Brokers.

The Philadelphia chip index dropped 5.2 percent, with Nvidia down 3 percent, Advanced Micro Devices off 4.5 percent and Micron falling 5.4 percent. Semiconductor equipment makers Lam Research, Applied Materials and tech utility Bloom Energy lost more than 6 percent each.

Earlier in the day, Europe’s tech sector fell 2.2 percent, dragged by ASML’s 6 percent decline, alongside steep losses in Infineon and Siemens Energy, while in Asia, SoftBank plunged more than 10 percent and chipmakers TSMC and SK Hynix also retreated.

WARNINGS OF AI INTERNET TAKEOVER

Alarm about the potential harm from AI spiked earlier this month when Anthropic researcher Jacob Coxon resigned, stating that the AI giants are “gambling with our lives.”

A few days later, the San Francisco-based AI lab released a threat intelligence report detailing how its Claude AI models were used for activities ranging from weapons development and cyber operations to surveillance and fraud.

Over the weekend, Amodei wrote that in six to 12 months, AI agents “could be capable of taking over the entire internet potentially causing hundreds of billions of dollars in damage.”

Separately, OpenAI’s Altman warned in an interview that the risk of human extinction posed by AI was serious enough that AI companies and governments should act.

“The warnings should be taken seriously,” said Gillian Hadfield, Bloomberg Distinguished Professor of AI Alignment and Governance at Johns Hopkins University. “There are real risks of models doing things we don’t want them to do and which we don’t anticipate well.”

Several US lawmakers have raised concern about AI’s rapid progress and called for new rules.

US Senate negotiators are debating legislation that would require AI companies to demonstrate they are taking reasonable precautions, Reuters reported on Monday.

But US President Donald Trump on Monday appeared to dismiss the worries as a “sick conspiracy” against AI and data centers, which have become a flashpoint in the midterm elections.

AI-related trades have powered many of the gains in global equities since OpenAI released ChatGPT in 2022, but more recently cyberattacks by rogue AI agents and public discontent with data centre construction have raised opposition to the development of the industry.

The US and Chinese governments are expected to hold AI safety talks as part of bilateral discussions taking place this month, Reuters reported.

But China’s state-backed Global Times criticized the Anthropic essay in an editorial, calling it a “Cold War playbook” intended to curb the country’s technological development.

A growing concern for OpenAI and Anthropic is the rising competition from more affordable Chinese models such as Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3, Alibaba’s Qwen and DeepSeek’s offerings, which could pressure the pricing of larger, more costly models.

NOT ALL BELIEVE THE WARNINGS

Some investors dismissed the warnings from Anthropic and OpenAI.

Michael Burry, whose successful bets against the US housing market before the 2008 financial crisis were chronicled in the movie “The Big Short”, said in a message on X the warnings were “hype and puffery” and “cover for real uncontrollable slowing growth”.

Others have argued that record capital spending commitments suggest AI development is unlikely to slow.

Morgan Stanley forecast earlier this year that AI spending will surpass $1.3 trillion by 2027.

“The competitive race between companies and countries remains intense, and it’s difficult to imagine firms voluntarily stepping back while rivals continue to push ahead,” Deutsche Bank said in a note.

Meanwhile, Amodei’s Anthropic has pushed ahead with its public debut, expected next month as sources told Reuters that the company is in talks to bring in Nvidia as an anchor investor.