The tea stall in Mohammadpur opens before the light does. A kettle hisses. Oil spits in a pan. The first customer is a rickshaw puller who has already counted the coins in his pocket twice. He orders what he always does: two buns and a glass of tea.

The tea costs Tk10. The buns are supposed to cost Tk10 each. But when he breaks one open, he notices what the sticker will not tell him. The bun is smaller. Not by much. But enough.

This is not a story about scarcity. It is a story about arithmetic performed in silence, at the bottom of a supply chain that stretches from the Black Sea to a cold storage in Rangpur, and ends at a tea stall where the numbers never quite add up for the person who can least afford the difference.

The bakery association had announced it would raise prices by up to 20% starting 12 September. A sack of refined flour had jumped from Tk3,000 to Tk5,600. A drum of cooking oil rose from Tk25,000 to Tk36,000. Sugar hit Tk120 to 125 per kilogram, up roughly Tk10 in a week. Bakery owners said production costs had climbed 20% to 30% over six months, driven by raw materials, energy, and transport.

On 15 September, the commerce ministry called a meeting. A committee was formed, led by the chairman of the Bangladesh Trade and Tariff Commission, and given seven days to study the problem. The bakers agreed to put the hike on hold "for the time being." The headline said prices were stable.

What the headline did not say is what the bakers had already planned for the cheapest items. For the Tk10 bun, there would be no price increase. Instead, the bun would shrink. A 40 gram bun could lose about 5 grams. A 400 gram loaf could drop to 320 or 350 grams if the price stayed the same. The association called it a "modest adjustment." The customer, if he is paying attention, might call it something else.

The rickshaw puller knows the bun is smaller. He does not need a committee to tell him. He buys two buns instead of one, because one no longer fills the gap between breakfast and the first fare of the morning. His lunch just cost Tk20 instead of Tk10. The government held the price. The market held the scale. He held the difference.

This is not a case of scarcity. It is a structural condition of a country that imports more than 80% of its wheat. Domestic production meets less than 10% of demand. Bangladesh imported a record 7.25 million tonnes of wheat in the 2025-26 fiscal year, the highest in its history.

Meanwhile, the area under wheat cultivation fell from 4.44 lakh hectares in 2015-16 to 2.8 lakh hectares in 2024-25, the lowest in at least a decade. Farmers are switching to maize and vegetables because wheat simply does not pay. When the global market moves, Bangladesh feels it. When the dollar strengthens, Bangladesh feels it. When a ship is delayed at a foreign port, the tea stall in Mohammadpur feels it.

This is not a case of scarcity. It is a structural condition of a country that imports more than 80% of its wheat. Domestic production meets less than 10% of demand. Bangladesh imported a record 7.25 million tonnes of wheat in the 2025-26 fiscal year, the highest in its history.

The data tells a story of pressure that has not eased. Overall inflation in August was 8.26%, down slightly from July. Food inflation was 7.02%. Rural inflation, where the poorest households live, was 8.31%, higher than the national average. The committee's report will not change these numbers. The report is not designed to change them. It is designed to buy time.

The government bought seven days. In seven days, the headlines will move on. The committee will submit its findings. The price hike may be gradually implemented or restructured into another form of shrinkflation. The problem will remain: a nation that cannot feed its bakeries without ships from abroad, and a working poor that measures its day in buns that keep getting smaller.

The rickshaw puller in Mohammadpur has finished his tea. He has two buns in his hand, each one slightly lighter than it was last week. He does not know about the committee. He does not know about the Trade and Tariff Commission, or the seven day deadline, or the press release from the commerce ministry. He knows what his hands know. He knows the bun is smaller. He knows he is still hungry.

The government held the price. The market held its breath. And the man with the rickshaw held the difference, one gram at a time.

Zakir Kibria is a Bangladeshi writer, policy analyst and entrepreneur based in Kathmandu, Nepal. His email address is zakir.kibria@gmail.com

Saudi Arabia has informed at least two European oil refining customers that they will not receive their usual crude oil allocations in October, as the escalating conflict in the Middle East disrupts global energy markets, reports Middle East Eye.

European refineries typically purchase Saudi crude under term contracts that guarantee regular monthly supplies. However, shipments can be cancelled under extraordinary circumstances under force majeure provisions, according to the report.

The development follows Qatar's extension earlier this month of force majeure on liquefied natural gas shipments until early November amid a maritime blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

Saudi Arabia had appeared relatively insulated from disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz because its East-West Pipeline connects the Gulf to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, allowing the kingdom to bypass the strategic waterway.

The pipeline had enabled Saudi Arabia to export around two-thirds of its pre-war oil volumes, or about 4 million barrels per day, according to MEE.

However, a drone attack last week disabled the pipeline. Saudi authorities said the attack originated from Iraq, where militias aligned with Iran are active.

The Houthis have also claimed attacks targeting the port of Yanbu and other facilities operated by Saudi oil giant Aramco.

Saudi Arabia has since begun rerouting oil shipments through the Suez-Mediterranean Pipeline after the Houthis declared an embargo on Saudi shipping, the report said.

Brent crude, the international benchmark, rose following the Houthi offensive in Yemen, which has placed the group in control of the country's Red Sea coastline.

The Houthis have also targeted Saudi Arabia with drones and missiles as the kingdom carries out strikes against Houthi positions in Yemen.

Brent was trading at around $103 a barrel on Friday. However, energy analysts told MEE that the benchmark price does not fully reflect the physical cost of securing crude supplies, while prices for refined products such as diesel and jet fuel are even higher.

In the United States, which has been relatively insulated from the conflict because of its domestic energy production, diesel prices rose 7.7% over the past week, according to the report.

Saudi Arabia led a coalition of Arab states that intervened in Yemen after the Houthis seized large parts of northwestern Yemen about a decade ago.

A ceasefire was reached in 2022 between the Houthis and the internationally recognised Yemeni government, backed by Saudi Arabia, after which Riyadh sought to reduce its involvement in the conflict.

However, Saudi Arabia has maintained an air and sea blockade of Houthi-controlled ports and airports.

The Houthis have said lifting the blockade is a condition for ending their embargo on Saudi Arabia.

The Dhaka Stock Exchange's benchmark index rose 60 points today (20 September), extending its winning streak to four sessions and taking its cumulative gain to 213 points, as broad-based buying and higher turnover signalled a revival in investor participation after the market's recent sharp correction.

The DSEX closed at 5,592 today, up nearly 4% from 5,379 on 14 September. The DSE30, the blue-chip index, gained 20 points to 2,121, while the DSES, the Shariah-based index, rose 12 points to 1,119.

Turnover increased 14% from the previous session to Tk747 crore, while 287 of the 388 traded issues advanced. Only 62 declined and 39 remained unchanged, indicating that the buying was spread across a large number of securities rather than being concentrated in a few stocks.

Market participants said the recent recovery was mainly to bargain hunting following the sharp correction, expectations of improved gas supplies to industries, stronger buying in banks and other active sectors, and improved investor sentiment following Moody's decision to revise Bangladesh's sovereign outlook.

The market began recovering after the DSEX fell to 5,379 on 14 September following several sessions of decline. Since then, investors have increasingly returned to beaten-down stocks, taking advantage of lower prices.

EBL Securities, in its daily market commentary, said bargain hunters were accumulating beaten-down stocks as strong investor participation and broad-based buying supported the recovery. The brokerage, however, noted that concerns over the market's near-term trajectory and heightened geopolitical tensions in the Gulf region remained.

Expectations of improved gas supplies have also helped ease some concerns over the earnings outlook of industrial and manufacturing companies. Gas shortages have disrupted production and raised concerns about corporate sales and profitability. Recent assurances of improving supplies have therefore provided some relief to investors.

Meanwhile, Moody's revised Bangladesh's sovereign outlook from "negative" to "stable" while maintaining its long-term issuer rating at B2. Market analysts have cited the change as another factor that has supported investor sentiment in recent sessions.

Buying interest was particularly visible in the Textile, General Insurance and Bank sectors. Textile accounted for the largest share of turnover today at 24%, followed by General Insurance at 13.2% and Bank at 12%.

All sectors posted positive returns during the session. Mutual Fund gained the most, rising 2.8%, while Cement and Financial Institution each advanced 2.6%.

The recent decline in Treasury bill yields may have also encouraged some investors to reconsider their allocation to equities. According to Bangladesh Bank data, the compounded rate on 91-day Treasury bills fell from 9.46% on 8 September to 9.32% on 16 September.

However, market participants do not see the decline in yields as a standalone explanation for the recent rally.

The breadth of the market has also improved significantly. On 15 September, 336 issues advanced, followed by 179 on 16 September and 259 on 17 September. The pattern suggests that the recent recovery has involved a wider range of stocks across different sectors.

Eastern Bank, Sharp Industries and IPDC Finance were the most actively traded stocks on Sunday.

Khan Brothers PP Woven Bag Industries topped the gainers' list, rising 9.88%, followed by ICB AMCL Sonali Bank First Mutual Fund, up 9.86%, and Prime Finance First Mutual Fund, which gained 9.75%.

Paramount Textile led the decliners, falling 4.31%. Rahima Food Corporation and Desh Garments each declined 2.88%.

The Chittagong Stock Exchange also closed higher. The CASPI gained 120 points to 14,856, while the CSCX advanced 85 points to 9,107. Turnover on the CSE stood at Tk10.10 crore.

The recent rally, however, will need to sustain higher turnover and broad-based participation to demonstrate whether the market's recovery can continue. Investors will also be watching corporate earnings, gas supply conditions and the persistence of investor confidence in the coming sessions.

EBL Securities said strong investor participation and broad-based accumulation had brought the benchmark index close to the 5,600 mark following its recent declines, although geopolitical and other market risks remained.

The government has increased the retail prices of diesel, octane, petrol, and kerosene by Tk20 per litre, with the revised rates set to take effect from Monday (21 September).

With the new price adjustment, this is the second time the BNP government has hiked fuel prices after assuming power in February this year. The last price hike was back in April.

Under the revised rates, the price of diesel has been raised to Tk135 per litre from Tk115, marking an increase of Tk20, or 17.4%.

The price of octane has been increased to Tk165 from Tk145, also a Tk20 hike, equivalent to 13.8%.

The price of petrol has been raised to Tk160 per litre from Tk140, an increase of Tk20, or 14.3%.

Meanwhile, from tomorrow, kerosene will cost Tk155 per litre, up from Tk135, marking a Tk20, or 14.8%, increase.

The Energy and Mineral Resources Division issued a gazette notification on Saturday night (20 September), revising the consumer-level selling prices of the four petroleum products.

Why the hikes

Laying out the perspective and rationale of the latest fuel price hike, the energy division said, "The ongoing war in the Middle East has caused a significant increase in the international prices of all types of petroleum products and freight charges since March 2026, and the upward trend continues."

Although international fuel prices have more than doubled, the government refrained from increasing domestic fuel prices in the public interest since April. As a result, the Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation (BPC) incurred losses of approximately Tk22,875.66 crore between March and August this year.

On 18 April, the government had increased the price of diesel by Tk15 per litre to Tk115. Despite the abnormal rise in international prices, domestic fuel prices remained unchanged for the following five months. Fuel prices in neighbouring and other Asian countries are currently considerably higher than in Bangladesh, said the energy division.

Giving a comparative price-sensitive analysis with India and other Asian countries, it said diesel is priced at Tk134.76 per litre in Kolkata, India; Tk164.83 in Myanmar; Tk161.24 in Nepal; Tk179.42 in Sri Lanka; Tk151.22 in Thailand; Tk137 in Vietnam; Tk140.71 in the Maldives; Tk168.53 in the Philippines; Tk185.48 in Pakistan; and Tk144.79 in the United Arab Emirates.

"The relatively low domestic fuel prices have created a risk of fuel being smuggled to neighbouring countries. The smuggling of petroleum products purchased with foreign currency earned through the hard work of Bangladeshi expatriates is not acceptable," said the division.

The government is also providing substantial subsidies to keep electricity and gas supplies uninterrupted amid the impact of the war on the LNG market.

In this context, the energy division said there is no alternative to increasing fuel prices to sustain the government's social safety net programmes and prevent fuel smuggling.

At current international market prices, BPC is incurring a loss of approximately Tk89 per litre on diesel. This translates into a daily loss of around Tk109 crore. At this rate, the annual loss on diesel alone would reach approximately Tk40,000 crore.

According to the energy division, increasing domestic fuel prices by Tk20 per litre, in line with prices in neighbouring countries, would reduce BPC's annual losses by around Tk10,000 crore.

Against this backdrop, the division said it has revised the prices of petroleum products to reduce BPC's losses, save foreign currency, and mitigate the risk of fuel smuggling to neighbouring countries amid the rise in international fuel prices caused by the ongoing war in the Middle East.

Fears of wider economic pressure

Talking to The Business Standard tonight, Dr Fahmida Khatun, distinguished fellow at the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), said that the latest price increase seems to be another adjustment to a continuing external energy-price shock.

"Nevertheless, increasing all major petroleum prices by the same absolute amount at once is a substantial policy intervention, especially when inflation and household financial pressure are already high," she said in her immediate reaction.

"The increase will have wide-ranging consequences. Individuals will face higher expenses for transportation. Even households that do not purchase fuel directly will be affected as transportation costs raise the prices of food and other essentials.

"Poor and lower-middle-income families will suffer disproportionately because most of their income is spent on daily necessities," she added.

Fahmida continued, "Diesel-dependent agriculture will face higher irrigation, mechanisation and transportation costs. This could potentially raise food prices, but reduce farmers' returns."

Around 70% of the country's irrigation pumps are operated using diesel. A research paper published by researchers from Bangladesh Agricultural University (BAU) and the Bangladesh Rice Research Institute (BRRI) found that irrigation is one of the major components of the total input or production costs for Boro rice, accounting for 20–25% of the total expenditure.

Fahmida also said, "Industries will incur higher logistics and generator costs, which will weaken profitability and export competitiveness. Small businesses will be especially vulnerable.

"At the macroeconomic level, the increase may intensify inflation, reduce household consumption and weaken growth."

Since the government had no other option but to increase energy prices, it should monitor how this increased price is imposed on the common people by market players, the economist stressed.

"The government should publish the price calculation transparently, prevent excessive fare increases and market manipulation. The government should also provide targeted support to low-income households, small farmers and public transport users," she added.

Anwar-ul Alam Chowdhury Parvez, president of the Bangladesh Chamber of Industries, told TBS, "The country is experiencing high inflation that is not coming under control. Industries are not getting adequate gas and electricity, resulting in very low private-sector credit growth.

"At such a time, increasing fuel prices by more than 15% without consulting anyone will create additional pressure across all sectors."

He said the decision will increase industrial production costs, transportation costs, and inflation. "The prices of goods will become uncontrollable. People will lose their jobs, while many businesses will have to scale back their operations.

"Non-performing loans in banks will increase. The government will not be able to create the employment it has been promising," he opined.

He feared that such decisions by the government will erode public confidence in the BNP administration. "Overall, it will create a socioeconomic crisis."

Talking to TBS, former Dhaka Chamber of Commerce & Industry (DCCI) president Shams Mahmud said, "As it is, all forms of business activities, including manufacturing, logistics, agro, service sector, and FMCG [fast-moving consumer goods], are going through stress in these turbulent times. International energy markets have recently been affected by the strikes in Saudi Arabia by Houthi rebels. Just today, Saudi Arabia said next month's shipment of oil to Europe will be withheld.

"So we can anticipate future price increases. The government has taken the right decision as a policy to create a buffer for any price shock, especially in regards to sourcing and also subsidy."

"But unfortunately, this will add a burden to the business ecosystem of Bangladesh, with inflationary pressure on the internal economy reducing disposable income. For export-oriented industries, which are already in a vulnerable state with decreasing competitiveness, it will add to the already increasing cost of doing business," said the businessman.

Also, the International Monetary Fund has been pressuring the government for a reduction of subsidy, and it may also have had an influence on the decision, as both parties will sit in Bangkok next month to work out the next loan from the global lender, he added.

About 1.81 crore people in Bangladesh are projected to face high levels of acute food insecurity between September and December 2026, according to a report by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) released this month.

The UN agency categorised the level of food insecurity in Bangladesh as IPC Phase 3 (crisis) and above -- under the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), a standardised global scale used to measure the severity of food crises.

IPC Phase 3 is the threshold at which populations experience critical levels of acute food insecurity and malnutrition, requiring urgent intervention.

The FAO said the projected number of people facing acute food insecurity is 18 percent higher than the estimated 1.53 crore people during May-August this year.

The projection includes approximately 7.87 lakh people expected to experience IPC Phase 4, or emergency-level acute food insecurity, under the IPC framework.

“The deterioration in food security conditions is mainly due to constrained household purchasing power amid persistently high inflation, driven by elevated fuel and energy costs associated with disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, while floods further affected livelihoods in some areas,” the FAO said in its Bangladesh country brief.

Bangladesh has been facing persistent inflation since fiscal year 2022-23. The 12-month average inflation rate rose to 10.13 percent in June 2025, the highest since FY12. In August 2026, consumer price inflation moderated to 8.26 percent, while the 12-month average inflation rate stood at 8.66 percent, according to the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS).

According to the IPC, food security conditions are projected to worsen in Satkhira, Bagerhat, Barishal, Barguna, Bhola, Jhalokathi, Noakhali, Khagrachhari, Rangamati, Bandarban and Cox’s Bazar.

Gaibandha, Kurigram, Jamalpur, Sirajganj, Netrokona and Sunamganj are also identified as districts where people face acute food insecurity.

The FAO report said food security conditions remain of particular concern for approximately 12 lakh forcibly displaced Myanmar nationals residing in Cox’s Bazar and Bhasan Char.

Thirty-five percent of this refugee population is projected to face acute food insecurity between September and December, including 10 percent facing emergency-level acute food insecurity amid anticipated funding shortfalls for food assistance and limited livelihood opportunities.

Despite the increased risk of food insecurity, the UN agency forecast Bangladesh’s aggregate paddy output for 2026 at 6.19 crore tonnes, roughly 5 percent above the four-year average of 5.95 crore tonnes.

The FAO said the 2026 Boro paddy crop, which accounts for about 55 percent of annual output, yielded an estimated 3.19 crore tonnes, close to the previous year’s record level, supported by improved seed varieties.

The Aus harvest concluded in July at 41 lakh tonnes despite crop losses caused by flooding from May to July in Chattogram, Cox’s Bazar, Moulvibazar and Habiganj. The vegetative Aman crop is preliminarily forecast at 2.59 crore tonnes, it said.

As domestic production is forecast to rise, the FAO expects Bangladesh’s rice imports to decline sharply. Rice imports for calendar year 2026 are forecast to fall to 8 lakh tonnes from 19 lakh tonnes in 2025, it said.

Eastern Bank emerged as the top turnover leader on the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) today (20 September), marking a notable surge in trading activity for the bank's shares.

According to DSE data, EBL shares worth Tk36.94 crore changed hands during the session, with 1.61 crore shares traded through 1,773 transactions.

The lender's sudden rise to the top of the turnover board is notable, as the stock has rarely led the DSE's daily turnover chart in recent times, according to market insiders.

Despite the heavy trading activity, EBL shares closed unchanged at Tk22.90, the same as the previous session.

The stock opened at Tk23 against an adjusted opening price of Tk22.90 and traded between a high of Tk23.10 and a low of Tk22.70 during the session.

At the latest closing price, EBL's total market capitalisation stands at Tk3,764 crore, with a free float market capitalisation of Tk2,615 crore.

Earlier, Eastern Bank posted a 25% year-on-year growth in consolidated net profit for the first half of 2026, reaching Tk439 crore for the January–June period. Consolidated earnings per share rose to Tk2.67 from a restated Tk2.14 in H1 2025.

The bank attributed its robust earnings growth to higher returns from government securities amid elevated treasury yields, alongside steady growth in non-funded income and improved operational efficiency.

On the turnover chart, Sharp Industries secured the second position with trades amounting to Tk25.84 crore, while IPDC Finance Limited came in third with shares worth Tk23.07 crore traded.

Other top-traded stocks of the day included Paramount Textile, Bangladesh National Insurance, Saiham Textile, Asiatic Laboratories, Lovello, Envoy Textile, and Reliance Insurance.

Liquidity crunch looks to be a thing of the past now as affluent commercial banks in particular fret over deposit buildup amid squeezing investment avenues for economic slowdown,

An analysis of the paradoxical situation shows various regulatory moves and deposit-mobilising drives by the country's banks helped in gradually restoring people's once-shaken trust in the banking sector. As such, the deposit growth keeps rising, which basically helps boost their stock of excess liquidity.

But such liquidity buildup fails to lighten up mood of the bankers because the demand for private-sector credits has not picked up despite various regulatory moves. On the other hand, yields on government securities are on a downturn feeding on an abundance of liquidity in the banking system.

As such, depositors begin to bear its domino effect as banks having surplus liquidity keep cutting deposit rate to lessen the liability while many of them are parking record amounts of surplus funds with the central bank's low-yielding deposit window called Standing Deposit Facility (SDF).

The SDF rate has come down to 7.50 per cent, much lower than that of call money.

According to Bangladesh Bank (BB) data, the deposit growth in the banking system was recorded at 7.77per cent in June last year. Afterwards, it started rising to reach 10.44 per cent in January this year followed by 10. 74 per cent and 11.36 per cent in June and July last respectively.

Seeking anonymity, a BB official said the volume of excess liquidity in the banking industry continued to rise in recent months due mainly to shrinking investment avenues under this macroeconomic sluggishness.

Citing data, the central banker said the volume of excess liquidity was less than Tk 2.80 trillion few months ago but it rose to Tk 3.37 trillion by end of May last--and the rising trend continued.

"So, this (excess liquidity) puts the banks in a problem as loan demand weakens. That's why banks are heavily relying on SDF," the BB official said.

According to the BB data, affluent banks all together kept around Tk 1.50 trillion in the SDF in June last, which is a record in the history of the banking sector.

The official data showed the monthly volume of funds banks parked into the SDF were recorded Tk 545 billion, Tk 578 billion, Tk 444 billion and Tk 444 billion in February, March, April and May last.

Syed Mahbubur Rahman, Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of Mutual Trust Bank (MTB), feels the growing buildup of excess liquidity is likely to become a pressing challenge for many banks as investment avenues continue to shrink amid prolonged economic sluggishness.

He explains that, in terms of incremental deposit costs, banks are barely making any money, while blended deposit costs remain manageable for some institutions-at least for those considered better managed.

However, Mr. Rahman has cautioned that if the situation persists, commercial banks may ultimately have no alternative but to reduce both deposit and lending rates. In such a scenario, deposit rates may even fall further, thereby rendering the real income of depositors negative.

Managing Director and CEO of Southeast Bank Md. Khalid Mahmood Khan has said the bank has a target of reaching deposit portfolio of Tk 500 billion by the end of upcoming December but they have already reached the milestone.

The lender is concentrating on profitability buildup through reducing the cost of deposit. They have already cut the deposit rate by 50 basis points and the bank will hold an ALCO meeting later this week where further cut in deposit is expected.

Managing Director of Shahjalal Islami Bank Mosleh Uddin Ahmed says the rising stock of un-invested liquidity in banks is turning into a headache for many of them in recent months due to plummeting loan demand.

On squeezing investment avenues, the seasoned banker says the use of central bank's overnight deposit window called SDF by affluent banks is increasing.

According to the BB data, the private-sector-credit growth reached 4.62 per cent by end of July, the second lowest in the history of Bangladesh.

Director-General of Bangladesh Institute of Bank Management (BIBM) Dr Md. Ezazul Islam notes that the liquidity glut in the banking sector is being created because of weak loan demand.

But the number and volume for the opening of LCs or letters of credit are increasing gradually, which gives early indication of economic recovery under the regime of this elected government.

"It's a temporary problem. I believe the credit demand from private sector would go up from the last quarter this year," the economist said, on a note of optimism.

The yields on 91 Days, 182 Days and 364 Days treasury bills stood at 8.31 per cent, 8.45 per cent and 8.47 per cent on Sunday.

At least $1.5 billion in identifiable corporate investment plan has been affected over the past four years as businesses were hit by external shocks, domestic political uncertainty, high borrowing costs and energy crises.

The investment plans and projects, disclosed by at least 10 companies and reviewed by The Daily Star, show how the turbulent business climate is weighing on private investment.

In taka terms, the total amount is equivalent to around Tk 18,000 crore, while at least 125,000 new jobs could have been created if the investments had materialised.

Some companies have scaled back expansion plans, while others have delayed projects or invested in manufacturing lines that have yet to begin production.

The consequences are being felt across the economy.

Delayed investment means factories remain unproductive, planned production and exports are held back, and thousands of potential jobs do not appear at all.

Businesses and economists say these problems are also discouraging new investment at a time when weak demand, high inflation and tight financing are already hurting economic activity.

BIG INVESTMENTS NEED PREDICTABILITY

Apparel manufacturer and exporter Newage Group planned a factory expansion worth around Tk 100 crore last year. But political uncertainty following the July Uprising got in the way of the plan.

“For me, the biggest concern is not the availability of opportunities, but the predictability required to make a long-term investment decision,” said Asif Ibrahim, vice chairman of the group.

After the general election in early 2026, Newage found its existing plants struggling by mid-year because of energy shortages. The setback led the company to shelve the expansion plan for now.

Asif said businesses need reliable energy, competitive financing, minimum predictable policies and economic stability before making major commitments.

The businessman’s comments show that political uncertainty and energy shortages did not occur in isolation. Rather, they were the latest in a series of business obstacles over the years.

For example, Maf Shoes, a sister concern of TK Group, announced a Tk 1,118 crore investment at the National Special Economic Zone in Mirsarai, Chattogram, in 2023. The investment was meant to set up an export-oriented footwear manufacturing unit and backward-linkage production lines for the shoemaker.

“We wanted to increase our exports and provide backward-linkage products to local footwear manufacturers,” said Mohammad Shahadat Ullah, executive director of Maf Shoes.

But the prolonged Russia-Ukraine war, the latest Middle East conflict, high borrowing costs and persistent energy shortages forced the company to put the plan on hold, he said.

Shahadat said the company has decided to restart the project on a smaller scale, which would be completed within two years. But the revised investment plan is yet to be finalised.

He said uninterrupted gas and electricity supplies are their first requirement for expansion.

DELAYED PROJECTS RAISE COSTS

Whenever a business postpones an investment plan, one of the first and almost certain consequences is that the project will require more money in future.

For example, N Mohammad Plastic Industry Ltd, a concern of Chattogram-based N Mohammad Group, took up an expansion initiative in 2022. The initial cost estimate was Tk 500 crore.

But amid the Covid pandemic, external shocks and a worsening dollar crisis in Bangladesh, the plan was pushed to December 2025.

Though the group resumed the project last year, its cost has risen by more than 60 percent, according to Mohammad Nazrul Hoque, managing director of N Mohammad Group.

He said the company has spent more than Tk 60 crore developing the 10-acre site, but further investment remains stalled because of unreliable gas supplies.

“Without dependable gas, it is not commercially viable to proceed,” said Nazrul.

Another example of delays costing businesses is Bashundhara Multi Steel Industries. In 2022, it announced a 12.5-lakh-tonne-a-year steel plant at National Special Economic Zone, with around 7,000 potential direct jobs.

Masudur Rahman, media coordinator of Safwan Bashundhara Global, said eight banks approved a syndicated loan of Tk 2,305 crore, of which Tk 540 crore had been disbursed.

But the investment then faced a gas supply uncertainty. Currently, machinery worth hundreds of crores has been lying idle at the half-built factory, he added.

Masudur said the project cost has meanwhile risen from Tk 4,146 crore to Tk 7,118 crore because of delays, higher financing costs and taka depreciation.

FACTORIES READY, BUT GAS HOLDS THEM BACK

Three factories of Meghna Group of Industries at the Cumilla Economic Zone have remained idle for four years. The group invested around $700 million in a steel mill, glass plant and paperboard factory but has been unable to start production because gas and electricity supplies remain unavailable.

Since 2022, the group has incurred around Tk 80 crore in annual losses maintaining the idle facilities. It also provided Tk 100 crore each for grid development and Gas Transmission Company Limited (GTCL) pipeline infrastructure to accelerate connections.

The country’s first electric vehicle manufacturer, Bangladesh Auto Industries Ltd (BAIL), has readied its factory at the National Special Economic Zone in Mirsarai of Chattogram.

“We are 100 percent ready. We are only waiting for the gas connection,” said Mir Masud Kabir, managing director of BAIL. “Once we get it, we can start within seven days.”

Masud said BAIL’s investment in the vehicle project has reached around Tk 700 crore.

Contacted over new factories waiting for gas lines, Kazi Mohammad Saidul Hasan, general manager (Operations Division) of Titas Gas Transmission and Distribution PLC, said around 500 applications for industrial connections are currently pending with them.

But there is little prospect of providing new connections because of gas shortage, said Saidul. He said there would be no possibility of providing fresh industrial gas connections until 2030.

“Titas Gas is helpless in this regard,” he said.

The energy weakness is reflected in private credit demand for commercial lenders.

Syed Mahbubur Rahman, managing director and CEO of Mutual Trust Bank, said weak private-sector credit growth reflects subdued business activity. “If exports are not growing, why would an entrepreneur borrow to build a new factory when demand is weak?” he asked.

Taskeen Ahmed, president of the Dhaka Chamber of Commerce and Industry, said private investment stood at around 21.2 percent of GDP in fiscal year 2025-26, while net FDI fell to about $1 billion and credit growth dropped to 4.47 percent, its lowest level in 33 years.

A WARNING FOR ECONOMY, EMPLOYMENT

Selim Raihan, executive director of the South Asian Network on Economic Modeling (SANEM), said the postponement of more than $1.5 billion in corporate investment is a serious warning for the economy and employment.

“Investment delays mean delayed factories, production and exports, as well as thousands of potential jobs,” he said.

The economist said the energy shortage remains one of the most immediate constraints facing potential investors.

M Masurur Reaz, chairman and CEO of Policy Exchange of Bangladesh, said continued high inflation, sluggish demand, energy disruptions and high borrowing costs are weighing on investment and weakening investor confidence.

Reaz said rebuilding confidence would require focused action on energy security, financing, foreign exchange, regulation and policy predictability.

The National Board of Revenue (NBR) is set to procure a three-year subscription to S&P Global Platts, a global provider of commodity price assessments and market data, to help customs officials verify the declared prices of imported goods.

The Ministry of Finance has recently approved the procurement at a cost of around Tk 8 crore, according to revenue officials familiar with the matter.

The subscription is being procured through the Direct Purchase Method (DPM) and is likely to be purchased within this week, several members of the purchase committee told The Daily Star.

The database will provide international market prices for thousands of commodities, allowing the NBR to compare importers’ declared values with prevailing prices when determining customs values.

Officials said the board had contacted several other international platforms, including the London Metal Exchange (LME), Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) and ICIS, before settling on Platts.

The other platforms do not provide data covering all types of products, while Platts offers price assessments across a broader range of commodities, they said.

“We negotiated with Platts several times before finalising the price,” a member of the purchase committee said on condition of anonymity.

The subscription will provide access to data on various products, while the NBR will receive at least 20-30 user IDs, allowing officials of customs houses across the country to access the platform.

The move follows a meeting on customs valuation held at Chattogram port on August 11 in the presence of Finance and Planning Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury.

At the meeting, Chattogram Chamber of Commerce and Industry (CCCI) President Mohammed Amirul Haque said customs officials sometimes assess imported goods at values higher than their actual purchase or invoice prices.

He cited plastic chips as an example, saying importers purchased the product at $8,000-$9,000 per tonne, while customs assessed its value at $12,000 per tonne for calculating duties and taxes.

Other businesses at the meeting also complained that higher customs valuations than their actual purchase prices were increasing import costs and putting additional pressure on consumers.

Following the meeting, the finance minister instructed the NBR chairman and the commissioner of Chattogram Customs House to take steps on the issue by September.

Md Mahbubur Rahman, commissioner of Chattogram Customs House, told The Daily Star that customs officials already use information from international price platforms and websites in some cases to assess imported goods.

“But as we do not have subscriptions, we do not have full access to such information and cannot properly verify the data provided by importers,” he said.

“Having access to international price databases will make it easier to verify the declared values submitted by importers and assess customs value based on prevailing market prices,” Mahbubur said.

Ahmedur Reza Chowdhury, deputy commissioner of Chattogram Customs House and a member of the purchase committee, said the database also provides country- and region-specific market data.

“If data for a particular country is not available, we can consider data from a neighbouring or comparable market. Under the customs valuation rules, such information can be useful in determining the value of identical or similar goods from the same or comparable regions,” he said.

Platts publishes daily commodity price assessments and benchmarks covering markets such as crude oil, refined fuels, gas, LNG, chemicals, petrochemicals, fertilisers, agriculture, metals and shipping. S&P Global says its Platts business publishes more than 15,000 commodity prices daily across these markets.

The proposed subscription comes amid longstanding complaints from importers that customs authorities sometimes determine the assessable value of goods above their actual transaction or invoice prices, said CCCI President Haque.

The US and China are discussing a plan to reduce or eliminate China's tariffs on American LNG as part of a broader package of energy and agriculture agreements that could be announced when Chinese President Xi Jinping visits Washington next week, according to two people briefed on the discussions.

The potential relief on US exports of liquefied natural gas is being discussed alongside a broader framework under which the US and China would each cut tariffs on about $30 billion of goods, the people said.

China imposed a 15 percent tariff on US LNG in February 2025 in retaliation for President Donald Trump's duties on Chinese goods. That effectively halted the US-China LNG trade, with the last significant cargoes arriving early that year.

American LNG producers are seeking new markets to absorb a wave of new export capacity being built along the US Gulf Coast, with years of trade tensions with China having made one of the world's biggest LNG markets less accessible.

The discussions are part of efforts to stabilize trade ties ahead of a September 24 meeting between Trump and Xi and are not final, the people said. Neither the White House nor the Chinese embassy in Washington responded to requests for comment.

The American LNG industry is entering a major expansion phase, with export capacity set to grow by roughly 10 billion cubic feet per day through 2027 as new and expanded facilities ramp up, with projects involving Cheniere Energy, Venture Global, Sempra, NextDecade and Exxon Mobil among those adding capacity.

The return of Chinese buyers would give US producers another major destination for their gas just as geopolitical upheaval is reshaping global energy flows, potentially helping underpin demand for projects now under construction and those seeking financing and long-term customers.

Of the almost 100 million metric tons of LNG capacity under construction in the US, 24.5 million metric tons have not yet been contracted to long-term customers, according to industry estimates and Reuters analysis.

GLOBAL LNG FLOWS

After Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine disrupted Europe's access to Russian pipeline gas, US LNG cargoes that might otherwise have gone to Asia were increasingly drawn to Europe.

The ongoing conflict in the Middle East between the US and Iran, meanwhile, has created another shift in global energy flows, with disruptions to supplies increasing competition for LNG cargoes in Asia.

China is the world's largest LNG importer and the US is the world's largest LNG exporter, giving the two countries an economic incentive to restore a trade relationship that was rapidly expanding before the tariff dispute.

US LNG exports to China fell from 64 vessels in 2024 to effectively zero in 2025 after Beijing imposed the tariff, according to US government data.

In 2021, the number had reached a record 131 vessels, reflecting the rapid growth of the US LNG trade with China after large-scale exports from the Lower 48 states began in 2016.

US LNG shipments to China fell to just two vessels in 2019 during Trump's first-term trade dispute with Beijing, before rebounding sharply in 2020 and 2021.

In recent months, several US cargoes that left Gulf Coast export terminals have arrived in China or are headed there, according to LSEG shipping data, suggesting Chinese buyers had started to return to the US market even as the tariff remained in place.

US LNG exports averaged 17.4 bcf/d in the first half of 2026, up 23 percent from a year earlier, according to the Energy Information Administration.

Implementation of international best practice of accounting, IFRS 9, in the banking sector would be challenging amid the huge non-performing loans and the sector’s current state, according to investment experts.

Although countries like Pakistan, Nepal and Sri Lanka have already implemented IFRS 9 — a move from provisioning based on incurred losses to forward-looking expected credit losses before default — it is difficult for Bangladesh as many banks are already struggling, according to the CFA Society Bangladesh.

The association of chartered financial analysts (CFAs) presented the findings at an event on financial analysis of the banking sector organised by the CFA Society Bangladesh and the Capital Market Journalists’ Forum (CMJF) today at the CMJF auditorium in the capital.

Syed Mahbubur Rahman, a former chairman of the Association of Bankers, Bangladesh (ABB), said it is essential to assess the actual risk of bank loans and maintain adequate provisions in line with international standards.

However, implementing IFRS 9 could pose “a major challenge” for banks under pressure from high non-performing loans and capital shortages.

Therefore, while adhering to international standards, IFRS 9 should be implemented gradually, taking into account the current realities of the country’s banking sector, he said while speaking at the event as the chief guest.

Bangladesh is going to follow IFRS 9 in banking accounts partly on a pilot basis in the current year. Full application for credit will be implemented from 2028.

Referring to the fact that non-performing loans in the banking sector have exceeded 32 percent, Rahman, also managing director and CEO of Mutual Trust Bank, said such a high level of bad loans is putting pressure on banks’ earnings, provisioning and capital.

To restore the capacity of banks, liquidity, capital, lending and non-performing loans must all be considered together. Banks need to be made effective not merely as deposit-taking institutions but as the primary channel for financing productive sectors of the economy.

He said reforms in the banking sector should be undertaken gradually, taking into account the realities on the ground. A sudden major change could put pressure not only on banks but also on depositors and businesses.

Minhaz Zia, chairman of North Star Investments, proposed that at least 50 percent of the boards of commercial banks should comprise independent directors to improve the banking sector. He also said that no member of a bank’s board of directors should be allowed to sit on its credit committee.

Loan approvals should be handled by a completely independent credit team, while an internal control committee comprising only independent directors should oversee internal controls.

He also stressed the need to modernise the bankruptcy law, or Bankruptcy Act.

At the event, Mahtab Osmani, president of the CFA Society, and Md Munir Hossain, president of the CMJF, also spoke.

Md Iqbal Hossain, chief financial officer of Sonali Bank PLC; Sakib Chowdhury, head of research at UCB Stock Brokerage, and S M Galibur Rahman, head of research at Shanta Securities, gave presentations.

In the presentations, they said banks in Bangladesh will need at least Tk 2,000 crore in paid-up capital to be eligible to pay cash dividends, although this is an uncommon practice in any neighbouring country.

A comparison with other South Asian and Asian banking systems also shows that many jurisdictions principally use risk-based capital, asset quality, distributable earnings and regulatory compliance when determining whether banks can distribute dividends.

The analysis illustrates the distinction by comparing BRAC Bank and National Bank. As of June 30, 2026, National Bank had about 41 percent more paid-up capital than BRAC Bank. Yet National Bank’s shareholders’ equity, excluding non-controlling interests, was negative Tk 46.7 billion, while BRAC Bank’s stood at positive Tk 113.1 billion.

The securities regulator will adopt the pure Dutch Auction Method for market-based valuation of primary shares, replacing the existing mechanism under the book-building method.

Under the current system, 40 per cent of shares are allotted to eligible investors (EIs) at the cut-off price, even if many of them have bid above that price. The new valuation mechanism will require EIs to receive shares at their respective bidding prices.

"The existing method of share allotment does not reflect fair valuation of shares. That's why the provision will be scrapped to help facilitate careful bidding by EIs," said Masud Khan, chairman of the securities regulator.

Under the book-building method presently followed, bids are opened with a 25 per cent price band on the indicative price of the shares of a company that is in the process of going public.

That means institutional bidders can quote prices within 25 per cent below or above the indicative price approved by the regulator.

Take, for example, Tk 100 as the indicative price. Bidders would then be allowed to bid between Tk 75 and Tk 125 for the shares of the company seeking to get listed. During the bidding process, if the 40 per cent quota for EIs gets exhausted at Tk 75, all EIs will receive shares at the cut-off price of Tk 75, even if many bidders have quoted prices above the cut-off price, up to Tk 125.

According to the changed rules that the securities regulator seeks to put in place, EIs will receive shares based on their own valuation of the company that is going to be listed.

The present system is also called the Dutch Auction Method, but it will be replaced by the pure Dutch Auction Method, said Mahmud-Ur-Rashid, chief business officer at Shanta Equity.

"The provision of receiving shares at their own bidding prices will compel eligible investors to think 10 times before quoting a price in the bidding," Mr Mahmud said. The existing system has allowed EIs to overvalue shares.

EIs will bid responsibly to avoid losses under the revised share valuation mechanism, which will rule out the possibility of unjustified prices.

Currently, a company is required to offload at least 10 per cent of shares compared to its paid-up capital. It has to hold a roadshow and receive valuations from at least 45 EIs — 15 from portfolio managers, 15 from stock dealers and 15 from asset managers — which proves to be a challenging task before fixing the indicative price.

The Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) has considered scrapping the mandatory provision of collecting valuations from EIs.

A new provision will be incorporated, allowing the issue manager and the issuer company to set an indicative price, supported by absolute and relative valuation as mentioned in the public issue rules. The indicative price will be verified by the stock exchanges and the securities regulator. If the price is accepted by the regulator, bidding will occur within a 25 per cent price band on the approved price.

The company will need to hold roadshows to present its financial position and projections. EIs will receive shares at the prices they have bid, while general investors will get shares at the cut-off price.

Another major change to be brought to the public issue rules is a mandatory "extended audit" for companies seeking to go public. This audit will have to be conducted by independent auditors based on terms of reference (ToR) set by the securities regulator.

BSEC officials said such an audit would significantly reduce IPO processing time.

The stock exchanges and the securities regulator will no longer verify the authenticity of the submitted papers after an extended audit of the issuer. They will simply focus on checking whether the company's valuation and overall condition are appropriate for listing.

The Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (Public Offer of Equity Securities) Rules, 2025 came into effect in December last year after an amendment to the Public Issue Rules, 2015. The amendment was executed by the previous securities commission.

However, no company has been listed under the 2025 rules.

In fact, the market has seen no issue since the approval of the IPO proposal of Techno Drugs in March 2024.

The securities regulator has allowed Central Depository Bangladesh Ltd. (CDBL) to work as the custodian of mutual funds (MFs).

To this effect, the depository authority this week received a consent letter from the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC). CDBL's Managing Director Md. Abdul Mutaleb confirmed this to the FE.

To expand its portfolio, the depository authority, which so far has provided only depository services, applied for a licence to work as the custodian of MFs.

The development comes at a time when MF custodians are facing heavy criticism for their failure to prevent scams in fund management.

Mr Mutaleb said they would exercise professionalism in securing the interests of unitholders of pooled funds.

"Some asset management companies have talked to us to engage us as the custodian of their funds," he said.

As per the latest rules for MFs, an organisation will not be allowed to play more than one role in the management of MFs.

Some organisations, including the Investment Corporation of Bangladesh (ICB), are working both as trustee and custodian. They will have to reduce their responsibility in those funds. CDBL is expecting to take over the charge.

Meanwhile, CDBL's operating profit has endured a sharp decline, a reason why the company seeks to expand its portfolio through custodianship of MFs.

The company receives Tk 25 for every settlement of listed securities worth Tk 0.1 million. The lower the daily transactions in the capital market, the lower CDBL's earnings from securities settlements.

Moreover, income from the maintenance of each BO (beneficiary owner's) account has been reduced to Tk 50 from Tk 100. As a result, the company's annual income from BO account maintenance fell to Tk 70 million in FY25 from more than Tk 130 million the previous year.

Consequently, CDBL's operating profit eroded by more than 17 per cent year-on-year to Tk 522 million in FY25, prompting the company to explore a new line of operation to recover lost income.

Under the revised rules, a custodian's role includes safekeeping funds' assets, maintaining accounts of unitholders and funds, and managing bank transactions.

CDBL was incorporated in August 2000, sponsored by the country's nationalised commercial banks, the Investment Corporation of Bangladesh (ICB), private commercial banks (PCBs), and the Dhaka and Chittagong stock exchanges, among others, in collaboration with the Asian Development Bank (ADB).

CDBL officials said the securities regulator wanted them to take on the new role due to a lack of efficient custodians.

Custodians' efficiency has been questioned after funds worth Tk 2.07 billion were embezzled from three open-ended funds managed by Universal Financial Solutions (UFS) without any resistance from the custodian, the Investment Corporation of Bangladesh (ICB).

UFS Managing Director Syed Hamza Alamgir left for Dubai in October 2022 with the money.

Custodians have said that the previous rules defining their role did not enable them to secure investors' interests in pooled funds.

At the end of last year, BRAC Bank, which serves as custodian for more than 60 MFs, expressed its intention to withdraw its custodianship from a large number of funds, saying the role lacked adequate authority in fund management.

At the time, a custodian's role was limited to ensuring the protection of assets purchased by asset management companies (AMCs), while cash funds and transactions remained under the control of asset managers.

The revised MF rules, which came into effect in November last year, empowered custodians to oversee bank transactions.

The MF industry comprises 68 licensed AMCs, 136 mutual funds, nine trustees, and nine custodians. The number of custodians will now rise to 10 following the regulatory approval granted to CDBL.

The National Board of Revenue (NBR) has moved to subscribe to internationally -recognised commodity databases to reduce long-standing disputes between importers and customs officials over the valuation of imported goods.

The customs authority is considering subscriptions to databases such as S&P Global Platts, the London Metal Exchange (LME), Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) and Independent Commodity Intelligence Services (ICIS).

At a recent meeting at Chattogram Customs House, chaired by Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury, the authorities decided to subscribe to at least one international database by this month, according to the meeting minutes obtained by the Financial Express.

A committee of the NBR's customs wing was formed to assess the pros and cons of subscribing to such databases. The committee has recommended subscribing to the S&P Global Platts in the first phase.

S&P Global Platts is a leading independent provider of information and benchmark prices for commodity and energy markets. Since 1909, Platts has provided information and insights to help clients make sound trading and business decisions and enable markets to operate with transparency and efficiency.

Trade economist Dr Zaidi Sattar, chairman of the Policy Research Institute (PRI), said arbitrary valuation should be stopped immediately by incorporating artificial intelligence into the ASYCUDA World system.

Subscription to global databases would also help minimise the hassles faced by importers, he said.

The databases could be linked to the existing ASYCUDA system, developed under the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), to improve automated valuation, Dr Sattar added.

He said Bangladesh is currently utilising only around 25 per cent of the system's capacity.

The complex tariff regime has been allowed to continue, creating scope for underhand dealings at the import stage, Dr Sattar said, stressing the need for greater automation.

Officials said customs would accept the valuation data submitted by importers until the database system becomes fully operational. The decision was also taken at the meeting chaired by the finance minister.

Currently, the NBR does not subscribe to international databases that can be used to cross-check the declared values of imported goods.

Md Fazlul Huq, administrator of the Federation of Bangladesh Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FBCCI), said subscribing to one or two databases would not be sufficient unless the NBR also ensures access to databases covering major import markets.

Products bought from different markets can have different prices and varying quality, he argued.

Citing a recent import for a new production unit, Fazlul Huq said 100 per cent polyester fabric was imported at $2.35 per unit, while customs assessed its value at $4.0.

The same product, however, may be priced at $4.0 in some countries, he said, adding that country-specific sources and databases should therefore also be included to reduce disputes over valuation.

Importers have long complained that customs officials often question the values declared in invoices and other documents and impose higher assessed or preset values for calculating duties and taxes.

Despite several assurances and directives from senior NBR officials, importers say the practice of disputed or arbitrary valuation persists at customs houses.

Chittagong Chamber of Commerce and Industry (CCCI) President Amirul Huq told the meeting that customs officials often assess imported goods at values higher than their purchase or invoice prices.

"For plastic chips imports, the actual purchase value and invoice value was $8,000-9,000 per tonne, but customs assess it at $12,000 to fix payable duties and taxes," he said, sharing his experience.

At the meeting, Chattogram Customs Commissioner Md Mahbubur Rahman said importers who submit purchase data from global platforms along with their invoice values are considered to have provided correct information.

For some imported goods, however, customs needs to verify the values against international databases, but it currently does not subscribe to those platforms, he said.

The government is considering issuing licences for digital banks soon, as digital banking is expected to become part of Bangladesh's digital economy and financial inclusion agenda, Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury said today (19 September).

"Digital banking is going to happen very soon. I have no doubt about it because this is very much part of our digital economy and financial inclusion," he said while speaking at a dialogue titled "Financial Inclusion: Policy Goals, Transactions Ecology and Sustainable Roadmap", organised by the Power and Participation Research Centre (PPRC) at a hotel in the capital.

The minister said digital banking should be rolled out gradually, with particular attention to cybersecurity, digital infrastructure and the integration of credit information.

He also said digital banking should not be treated as a standalone service but as part of a wider financial ecosystem covering reliable internet connectivity, digital payments, financial services and access to formal banking.

He further said strong digital infrastructure was needed before expanding digital financial services.

Digital banking could widen access

Amir Khosru said the new system could bring people currently outside the formal financial system into banking, particularly low-income households, farmers and other underserved groups.

He cited government-backed payment programmes as an example, saying regular digital transactions could encourage people without bank accounts to enter the formal financial system.

Many Family Card beneficiaries, particularly housewives, do not have bank accounts, he said. Regular payments through formal channels could encourage them to open accounts.

A similar process was taking place among farmers receiving payments through the Farmer Card, he added.

"Once people receive payments through a formal system, they have an incentive to enter the banking system," he said.

Stakeholders flag Bangla QR misuse

Participants at the dialogue raised concerns over the removal of the minimum merchant discount rate (MDR) and interchange reimbursement fee (IRF), saying the move had disrupted the business model of mobile financial service (MFS) providers.

They called for stronger regulatory monitoring of Bangla QR, alleging that some agents were diverting MFS funds into bank accounts to take advantage of the zero-fee payment facility.

MDR is a fee paid by merchants to banks and payment service providers for processing digital transactions.

IRF is an interbank service charge paid by the institution providing Bangla QR to the institution whose app is used to complete a payment.

Industry experts warned that if MDR and IRF remain at zero, MFS providers may eventually seek to recover their costs through other charges, including cash-in fees, which could undermine financial inclusion.

'Bangla QR must be embraced, but abuse prevented'

Former Bangladesh Bank governor Ahsan H Mansur said Bangla QR was an important initiative but required safeguards to prevent misuse.

"Bangla QR is something we have to embrace, but at the same time we have to prevent its abuse," he said.

He said addressing the challenges would require several measures rather than a single solution.

"There's no single solution to this issue. It has to be addressed piece by piece," he said.

Mansur said that during his tenure, local governments had been instructed to require businesses seeking new or renewed trade licences to have a Bangla QR facility.

He also highlighted the importance of maintaining a single national QR standard accessible to all institutions and customers.

However, he said this raised the question of whether customers should be required to have smartphones to use the system.

Mansur also said the digital bank initiative had stalled.

"Everything was done during my time. The list was prepared, the criteria were identified, and the process was laid out. But since then, it has never moved forward," he added.

PPRC seeks sustainable roadmap

PPRC Executive Chairman Hossain Zillur Rahman said Bangladesh needed a sustainable roadmap for implementing Bangla QR, incorporating the views of all relevant stakeholders.

He said building a functional digital financial ecosystem required coordinated action across multiple areas and that stakeholders were prepared to contribute to the process.

"The system has to match through a sustainable roadmap approach. It requires a much, much bigger discussion," he added.

Around 5,000 workers at Chattogram Port's General Cargo Berth (GCB) are facing sharp income losses as container traffic allocated to six private berth operators has remained about 40% below indicative tender volumes, the operators said.

They have sought an urgent review of cargo allocation, saying the prolonged decline in workload has left many workers idle while operators continue to bear fixed costs for wages, equipment and maintenance.

The six operators are FQ Khan and Brothers at Jetty 6, Fazlisons at Jetty 9, Bashir Ahmed and Company at Jetty 10, A & J Traders at Jetty 11, Everest Port Services at Jetty 12 and MH Chowdhury at Jetty 13.

In separate letters to the Chittagong Port Authority (CPA) on 14 September, the operators said actual container allocation remained substantially below the indicative volumes used to assess their five-year contracts, making operations financially difficult to sustain.

"Only 800 workers are permanent in GCB berths. More than 5,000 workers are productivity-based. Here, no vessel means no work and no pay," Taslim Uddin Selim, general secretary of Chattogram Dock Jatiyatabadi Sramik Dal, told The Business Standard.

"As a result, most of the workers remain idle when there is no vessel to handle at the berths. It becomes very difficult for them to earn bread and butter for their families when the number of vessels falls," he said.

Fazle Ekram Chowdhury, managing director of Fazlisons and president of the Bangladesh Berth Operator Association, said the decline in vessel allocation had directly affected workers whose earnings depend on port operations.

"Almost half of the people remain idle when the number of ships falls. Their income has fallen completely," he told TBS.

He said operators continued to retain some workers and pay minimum wages even when there was insufficient work.
Infographics: TBS
Infographics: TBS

Tk25,000 welfare payment

Fazle Ekram questioned whether the Tk25,000 welfare payment provided to registered port workers could compensate for income losses caused by reduced workload.

He said workers could have earned that amount in a month or two if vessel handling had remained at normal levels, while the welfare payment is made only once a year.

"If a worker's duty had increased, they could have earned Tk25,000 more in a month or two months. Giving Tk25,000 once a year cannot compensate for that loss," he said.

He also warned that continued pressure on workers could lead to dissatisfaction.

"If the port authority thinks Tk25,000 can suppress workers' dissatisfaction, that would be a wrong expectation. If the situation explodes, it will not remain within my control," he said.

40% gap in cargo allocation

The operators said their financial commitments were based on the indicative container volumes included in the tender documents.

Fazlisons said it handled 437,596 boxes between October 2022 and August 2026 against an indicative benchmark of 721,356 boxes for the same period, leaving a shortfall of 283,760 boxes.

The operator handled 60.7% of the indicative volume and estimated that the shortfall had left around Tk8.61 crore in fixed operational costs unrecovered.

Fazlisons was awarded the contract in September 2022 after quoting Tk76.91 crore. The agreement for operating Lot 2, Berth 9 at GCB was signed on 25 September that year.

The tender estimated a five-year volume of 920,875 boxes, or around 15,348 boxes a month, according to the company.

Fazlisons said it did not consider the tender volume a guaranteed minimum, but argued that the projection was a key basis for determining manpower, equipment, investment and pricing when it submitted its bid.

The company currently incurs around Tk46.36 lakh in fixed monthly expenses for manpower, equipment, maintenance, insurance and other operational costs, it said.

NCT, CCT handle more containers

The operators have also questioned the distribution of container vessels among GCB, New Mooring Container Terminal (NCT) and Chattogram Container Terminal (CCT).

They cited July 2026 data showing NCT handled 126,722 boxes and CCT 46,029, while Fazlisons handled 7,963 boxes at its GCB berth.

Fazlisons acknowledged that the contractual scopes of the three terminals are different, but said the disparity warrants a transparent review of vessel and cargo allocation.

The company referred to a CPA board decision of 28 March 2023 that called for reasonable allocation of vessels among CCT, NCT and GCB if the number of container vessels calling at Chattogram Port was insufficient.

The operators said their association had repeatedly raised the issue with the CPA through representations submitted in February 2023, February and December 2024, December 2025 and January 2026.

Operators seek review, not rate hike

The operators said they would prefer increased vessel and cargo allocation over a higher handling rate.

"If sufficient container vessels can reasonably and safely be allocated to GCB, we would much prefer to earn our revenue by performing the work rather than seeking any financial adjustment," Fazle Ekram said.

He claimed turnaround times at NCT, CCT and GCB were broadly comparable and alleged that GCB had not received what operators consider a reasonable share of container traffic.

The operators have asked the CPA to provide or jointly review vessel-wise and operator-wise allocation data and sought a contractual review under the General Conditions of Contract and relevant provisions of the Public Procurement Act and Rules.

They said they were not seeking automatic compensation or a rate increase because of lower traffic, instead proposing measures including contractual variation, adjustment of operational obligations, or rationalisation of fixed manpower and equipment requirements if the CPA cannot ensure a reasonable workload.

Fazlisons proposed a review involving the CPA's traffic, terminal, procurement, finance and legal departments and said it was ready to submit records of operational costs, manpower, equipment, insurance and bank liabilities.

Fazle Ekram also said local operators had proposed an investment plan worth around Tk700 crore to improve GCB facilities but had received no response from the CPA or the Ministry of Shipping.

He alleged that foreign companies were receiving faster responses from the authorities while local investors were being ignored.

The operators have urged the CPA to take an early decision, saying the continued decline in workload is putting their businesses and thousands of workers' livelihoods under pressure.

No response from CPA

The Business Standard contacted CPA Director (Traffic) Golam Md Sarwarul Islam by phone for comments, but he did not answer.

The CPA secretary was later contacted and sent specific questions on the issues raised by the berth operators. Although he assured TBS that he would respond, he neither provided answers nor returned the call.

Bangladesh Bank (BB) has fixed the maximum interest rate at 7.0 per cent for loans under the Tk200 billion pre-refinance scheme aimed at reopening closed industrial and service sector enterprises.

The central bank also introduced a six-month grace period on loan disbursements, during which no interest can be collected from borrowers.

The directive was issued through a circular on Thursday, reports UNB.

It specifies that the recovery of interest, including the accrued interest from the first two quarters, will commence only after the six-month grace period ends.

This circular follows two previous directives issued on June 4 and July 7, which established the "Closed Industrial and Service Sector Support Pre-Refinance Scheme" and laid down its policy framework.

Under the updated guidelines, the term "Large Industry" used in prior circulars has been replaced simply with "Industry." This adjustment widens the scope of financing under the scheme beyond large industries to include other eligible industrial enterprises.

According to Bangladesh Bank's instructions, participating commercial banks will receive pre-refinance facility from the central bank at an interest rate of 4 percent.

However, banks will not have to pay any interest during the initial six-month grace period.

Following the grace period, banks must settle interest payments to Bangladesh Bank on a quarterly basis, including the accumulated interest from the first two quarters.

Similarly, at the end-user level, the maximum interest rate charged by banks to borrowers cannot exceed 7.0 per cent. Borrowers will enjoy a complete exemption from interest payments during the six-month grace period, after which banks will collect regular interest along with the accrued balance from the initial two quarters.

Application Flexibility:

The central bank has eliminated rigid application deadlines for the scheme. Eligible enterprises can apply for pre-refinance facilities at any point during the scheme's three-year tenure, subject to fund availability.

This ensures that enterprises unable to apply at the onset of the scheme retain the opportunity to seek funding later if liquidity remains available.

Bangladesh Bank highlighted that the primary objective of the BDT 20,000 crore fund is to restore production and operational activities in long-closed industrial and service sector units.

Annual demand for animal feed is expected to rise to 10 million tonnes by 2030 from 7.5 million tonnes now, driven by growing domestic demand for poultry and meat, according to a study by Bangladesh Agricultural University (BAU).

Of the projected demand, 65 percent will be used for poultry, 20 percent for fish farming and 15 percent for cattle, the study said.

It was released yesterday at a seminar titled “Feed Growth Supporting Bangladesh’s Protein Demand”, jointly organised by the Feed Industries Association of Bangladesh (FIAB) and the US Soybean Export Council (USSEC) at Dhaka Regency Hotel & Resort in the capital.

Bangladesh’s fish and poultry feed industry supplies nutrient-rich feed to support animal growth and productivity. It uses ingredients such as rice bran, maize, soybean meal, fish meal and other locally available materials.

However, if the national goal is protein security, the industry should be assessed based on how efficiently it produces edible protein, said Md Safiqur Rahaman Shishir, head and associate professor of the Department of Animal Nutrition at BAU.

“The cheapest feed does not necessarily result in the lowest cost of producing animal protein,” he said while presenting a paper on improving feed efficiency at the seminar.

Khabibur Rahman, Bangladesh market lead of the USSEC, said the country has a soybean complex, or value chain.

It includes whole soybeans, which are crushed to produce soybean meal for animal feed and soybean oil, he added.

The USSEC provides technical support, conducts workshops and seminars, shares knowledge and builds partnerships with industry players to strengthen the sector.

“Improving animal health will also improve the quality of food for human consumption and give people access to healthier food,” Khabibur said.

About 60 percent of the animal protein consumed in Bangladesh comes from fish and aquatic animals. To help ensure this protein supply, the USSEC provides technical support to fish farmers and aquaculturists in Bangladesh, he added.

Md Delwar Hossain, secretary of the Ministry of Fisheries and Livestock, said animal protein plays an essential role in building a healthy and well-nourished nation.

“Quality feed is the foundation for producing safe and high-quality protein,” he said.

Md Shah Alam Khan, director general of the Department of Livestock Services, said feed accounts for around 70 to 75 percent of total production costs in the poultry and livestock sectors.

Government employees will receive arrears under the new pay scale for the period between July 1 and the date of the issuance of the official order, according to a finance ministry gazette notification.

The Ministry of Finance issued the circular on September 17, implementing the National Pay Scale 2026 retrospectively from July 1.

This follows the government’s approval on August 31 of the largest pay hike for the civil service since independence, which doubled the basic salary of top officials and raised the lowest pay by a record 142 percent.

According to the order, the basic salary adjustments under the new pay scale will unfold in phases.

For employees in Grades 10 to 20, 50 percent of the total basic salary increase -- the difference between the 2026 scale and their existing basic pay -- will be added to their basic salary drawn on June 30, 2026, for the period from July 1 to December 31.

They will receive 75 percent of the increase from January 1, 2027, to June 30, 2027, and 100 percent of the new pay scale alongside annual increments from July 1, 2027.

For officials in Grades 1 to 9, 40 percent of the total basic salary increase will be disbursed from July 1 to December 31, 2026. This will rise to 70 percent from January 1, 2027, with the full 100 percent salary adjustment coming into effect from July 1, 2027.

All other allowances will continue to be paid at the existing rates drawn as of June 30, 2026, until December 31, 2027. The revised allowance rates specified in the new order will take effect on January 1, 2028.

Prior to this update, the last national pay scale was introduced in 2015, marking the highest hike until now, with basic pay rising by 95 percent in the top grade and 101 percent in the lowest.

The Bangladesh Freight Forwarders Association (BAFFA) has urged the government not to expand 100 percent foreign ownership in the country’s freight forwarding sector without assessing its economic impact on local entrepreneurs, employment and foreign exchange flows.

The association said freight forwarding is predominantly a service-based industry rather than a capital-intensive sector and raised the question of whether allowing unrestricted foreign ownership would bring substantial fresh foreign direct investment, technology transfer or new employment to Bangladesh.

BAFFA’s concerns came amid renewed regulatory attention to foreign-owned freight forwarding companies. On September 8, the National Board of Revenue (NBR) issued a clarification regarding the renewal of licences of fully foreign-owned companies that had received licences before July 1, 2015, under the Freight Forwarding Agents Licensing and Operations Rules, 2008.

BAFFA recently sent a letter to the NBR and the Prime Minister’s Office arguing against allowing 100 percent foreign ownership in the freight forwarding sector.

In the letters, BAFFA said any broader policy change should therefore be preceded by a comprehensive economic impact assessment and meaningful consultation with local industry stakeholders.

Local freight forwarders have spent more than three decades developing expertise, international agency networks and logistics capabilities that support Bangladesh’s import and export trade, BAFFA said in the letters.

The sector includes a large number of locally owned small and medium enterprises that coordinate international transportation, cargo consolidation, documentation, customs-related processes, supply chain management and other trade facilitation services.

BAFFA warned that allowing financially stronger multinational operators unrestricted access without appropriate regulatory safeguards could create an uneven competitive environment for domestic SMEs and potentially shift a greater share of locally generated logistics income abroad.

The association stressed, however, that its position should not be interpreted as opposition to foreign investment.

BAFFA said Bangladesh needs substantial foreign investment in logistics, but such investment should preferably be directed towards areas where fresh capital, infrastructure, technology and capacity are genuinely required.

These include ports and terminals, inland container depots, multimodal logistics hubs, modern warehousing, cold chain facilities, air cargo infrastructure, automation and digital logistics systems, the letters also read.