New US tariffs could slash Canada's fourth quarter growth to below 1%, reflecting a new wave of uncertainty that threatens to hit investment ​and hiring, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said today (21 September).

Macklem said that as ‌the bank pondered what to do with rates, it had to take into consideration the fact that while slower growth could drag inflation downwards, the Middle East conflict could push it up as oil prices soar.

Canada's annual inflation ​rate is 3%, well above the bank's 2% target, and it could edge up ​if oil prices remain near $100 a barrel, he said.

Canada's economy rebounded in the ⁠second quarter and posted annualized growth of 3.3%, as businesses and households started to adjust and ​plan investments and spending after almost 18 months of US tariffs.

But as a prospective trade deal ​collapsed between the two long term allies, the rift between them has widened with new tariffs from the US.

"The latest escalation could once again cause businesses to delay investment and hiring decision," Macklem said.

"If these new tariffs remain ​in place, growth could be roughly halved in the fourth quarter, to below 1%."

In July, before ​the tariffs were unveiled, the BoC had forecast a third quarter growth of 1.5% and economists say recent indicators ‌show ⁠it will most likely be around that range.

The Middle East conflict has not only impacted crude oil prices but also damaged gasoline and diesel capacity, piling up more pressure on the cost of fuel.

Macklem said that with no easing of the US-Iran conflict, the risk that inflation broadens and becomes ​more persistent has increased, ​although there is no ⁠evidence so far that the higher fuel costs are spreading to other goods or services.

"We don't want to raise our policy rate and restrain ​growth if inflationary pressures are contained. But nor do we want to ​be too slow ⁠to respond if inflationary pressures are being more persisent," he said.

Macklem said that since the start of the trade war between the US and Canada, the BoC was seeing evidence that businesses were reducing ⁠their exposure ​to tariffs by changing supply chains and changing sourcing strategies.

They ​are also adopting AI technology but its impact on productivity will take time to reflect.

That said, slower population growth and ​an aging population are also hitting labor supply and consumer demand, he added.

Iran’s economy contracted by more than 10 percent during the Middle East war, which began with US-Israeli attacks in late February.

The country’s gross domestic product (GDP) shrank by 10.1 percent year-on-year from late March to late June, a period known in Iran as the first quarter of the Persian calendar, according to the Statistical Center of Iran on Sunday.

Iran has been at war with the United States since late February, when US-Israeli strikes killed the Islamic republic’s supreme leader and senior military officials at the start of a vast offensive.

The strikes sparked Tehran’s retaliation in blocking the Strait of Hormuz -- causing global oil prices to surge -- as the conflict spread in the Middle East.

Aside from this, Iran’s economy has long struggled with hyperinflation and devaluation of its currency, caused in large part by economic sanctions.

Sonali Bank PLC, the country's largest state-owned lender, reported a massive 193% year-on-year surge in consolidated net profit to Tk1,878 crore for the first half of 2026, marking the highest net earnings recorded by any local bank during the six months.

According to the bank's financial statements released recently, consolidated earnings per share (EPS) jumped to Tk41.47 in H1 2026, up significantly from Tk14.14 in the corresponding period last year.

According to bank sources, with this performance, the lender outperformed leading private commercial lenders, including BRAC Bank, which posted a net profit of Tk1,423 crore during the January-June period.

Financial data shows that Sonali Bank's net interest income fell 26% year-on-year to Tk424.88 crore during the first half, primarily impacted by elevated borrowing costs.

However, the state-owned bank offset the interest income decline through robust treasury operations, securing Tk4,824 crore in investment income — a 9% growth compared to the same period of 2025.

Despite strong treasury performance, rising administrative expenses dragged the bank's operating profit — consolidated profit before tax and provision — down by 6% to Tk3,546 crore.

The triple-digit jump in final net profit was largely enabled by a steep reduction in provision requirements against non-performing loans.

During the first half, Sonali Bank set aside Tk1,113 crore in provisions, which was 59% lower than the provision maintained in the same period last year.

During H1 2026, its total classified loans stood at 18.27% of its total disbursement, which was 15.78% at the end of 2025, according to Bangladesh Bank data.

At the end of June 2026, Sonali Bank's consolidated net asset value (NAV) per share stood at Tk332.03.

A global diesel shortage fueled by wars in Iran and Ukraine is unlikely to ease ​before next year, according to storage market indicators and industry participants, extending a spike in fuel costs that is weighing on economies worldwide.

The wars have severely ‌disrupted diesel supplies, stranding millions of barrels a day in the Middle East and Russia, draining inventories to historic lows and sending prices to record highs. The shortage has been a drag on economic activity, as diesel fuels agriculture, manufacturing, and heavy transportation.

In the United States, retail diesel prices topped $6 a gallon this month for the first time, squeezing farmers and truckers and stoking worries for President Donald Trump's Republican Party ahead of the November ​midterm elections.

Another sign of persistent tightness is emerging in the storage market. Refiners and traders across North America are declining to renew diesel storage leases because there is little ​fuel available to store, data from storage broker The Tank Tiger showed.

Diesel storage capacity available for leasing in North America and the Caribbean ⁠Islands, a major trading hub, has climbed to a four-year high of 13 million barrels for October, from 11 million barrels in June, The Tank Tiger Chief Operating Officer Steven Barsamian ​told Reuters.

Total US diesel inventories declined to 107.9 million barrels by 11 September, the lowest for this time of year since records began in 1982, according to the US Energy Information Administration.

The ​rapid draw of diesel from US storage indicates how tightly supplied the market has been in recent months, and the rising availability of tanks for lease underscores how long the tightness is expected to persist, Barsamian said.

The combination of falling inventories and rising storage availability suggests market participants expect supplies to remain tight into at least the first quarter of next year, Barsamian said. Storage tanks are typically leased for six months ​to a year.

"More storage is available for lease because no one wants to renew their existing contracts. Why would you pay for a storage tank when there is no diesel to ​store?" Barsamian said.

EcoBox Dumpsters, a US waste management business, is limiting its rising fuel cost by using smaller trucks where possible, grouping deliveries and pickups in the same area, and confirming pickup schedules to avoid ‌unnecessary trips.

"Each ⁠unnecessary truck movement now has a much greater cost," said owner David Garrigus.

A global concern

The EIA also expects inventories to stay depleted.

"We forecast inventories of distillate fuel oil — often sold as diesel — in the United States to fall below 100 million barrels in September and remain below the five-year low through the end of 2026 and most of 2027," the EIA said earlier this month.

European diesel inventories are also low. Stocks in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp storage, refining and trading hub were 16% below the five-year average in July, according to the latest data available from Insights Global. In Singapore, ​total distillate inventory levels averaged about 8.2 ​million barrels over the past few weeks, ⁠similar to pre-Iran war levels, but below the 2025 average of 9.6 million.

"Various Asian emerging markets have been affected quite significantly," said Andrea Pescatori, the International Monetary Fund's Asia-Pacific deputy division chief, at the Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference in Singapore.

Some signs of relief

Industry executives expect global diesel supplies ​to stay tight through winter, particularly if Middle East tensions further disrupt fuel exports and Russia's diesel export ban remains in force through ​October. Moscow will extend diesel ⁠export restrictions until the end of October, Russian business daily Vedomosti reported on Tuesday.

US diesel prices may rise further as US East Coast buyers purchase barrels ahead of the heating season, before peaking, said Alex Hodes, director of energy market strategy at StoneX.

Analysts also expect record diesel refining margins to encourage more production, limiting price increases.

The US diesel crack spread — the premium of ultra-low sulfur diesel futures ⁠over US ​crude oil futures — hit a record $118.62 a barrel on September 14.

Further relief could come from China, which has boosted exports ​steadily in recent months, energy economist Philip Verleger said this month.

Still, any escalation in the Iran or Russia-Ukraine wars, or a major refinery outage, could trigger fresh price spikes.

"Current fundamentals point to higher prices staying here for a while," ​Hodes said.

The latest fuel price hike will increase transportation, agriculture, and industrial costs, putting further pressure on inflation and disproportionately affecting poor and lower-middle-income households, according to Dr Fahmida Khatun, distinguished fellow at the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD).

"The latest price increase seems to be another adjustment to a continuing external energy-price shock. Nevertheless, increasing all major petroleum prices by the same absolute amount at once is a substantial policy intervention, especially when inflation and household financial pressure are already high," she told The Business Standard last night (20 September) in her immediate reaction.

"The increase will have wide-ranging consequences. Individuals will face higher expenses for transportation. Even households that do not purchase fuel directly will be affected as transportation costs raise the prices of food and other essentials.

"Poor and lower-middle-income families will suffer disproportionately because most of their income is spent on daily necessities," she added.

The government last night increased the retail prices of diesel, octane, petrol, and kerosene by Tk20 per litre. The revised rates took effect today (21 September).

With the new price adjustment, this is the second time the BNP government has hiked fuel prices after assuming power in February this year. The last price hike was back in April.

The per-litre prices of diesel, octane, petrol, and kerosene have been raised to Tk135, Tk165, Tk160, and Tk155, respectively.

Fahmida continued, "Diesel-dependent agriculture will face higher irrigation, mechanisation and transportation costs. This could potentially raise food prices, but reduce farmers' returns."

Around 70% of the country's irrigation pumps are operated using diesel. A research paper published by researchers from Bangladesh Agricultural University (BAU) and the Bangladesh Rice Research Institute (BRRI) found that irrigation is one of the major components of the total input or production costs for Boro rice, accounting for 20-25% of the total expenditure.

Fahmida also said, "Industries will incur higher logistics and generator costs, which will weaken profitability and export competitiveness. Small businesses will be especially vulnerable.

"At the macroeconomic level, the increase may intensify inflation, reduce household consumption and weaken growth."

Since the government had no other option but to increase energy prices, it should monitor how this increased price is imposed on the common people by market players, the economist stressed.

"The government should publish the price calculation transparently, prevent excessive fare increases and market manipulation. The government should also provide targeted support to low-income households, small farmers and public transport users," she added.

A free trade agreement between India and New Zealand, signed in April, will come into force on Oct 20, Indian trade Minister Piyush Goyal said on Monday, as New Delhi seeks to boost exports and attract investment amid shifts in global trade.

The deal with New Zealand comes at a time when US President Donald Trump has signed a law that gives him authority to impose up to 100 per cent tariffs on countries such as India for buying Russian oil.

India has accelerated efforts to diversify export markets away from the US, which is its biggest destination so far, through a series of trade agreements with major economies, including Britain and the European Union, reports Reuters.

New Zealand's parliament last week passed legislation to implement the free trade agreement with India, under which tariffs on about 95 per cent of New Zealand's exports to India, including wine, kiwi fruit and apples, would be eliminated or significantly reduced.

The agreement will give all Indian goods duty-free access to New Zealand and ease mobility rules for students and workers. Wellington has also agreed to invest $20 billion in India over the next 15 years.

New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi have committed to doubling bilateral trade by 2030, which stood at about $2.3 billion in the 12 months through June.

"At a time when there is uncertainty around the world in trade, we see tariff rates escalating, we see barriers being put up, India and New Zealand show that we can agree to terms that are beneficial for trade and businesses," New Zealand Trade Minister Todd McClay said via video conference at the event announcing the ratification of the treaty.

India said last week that the new measures to levy tariffs over the purchase of Russian oil could impact bilateral ties with the United States, in a sharp response to the passing of the law.

The government has scrapped the mandatory requirement for export-oriented garment manufacturers to obtain commerce ministry's permission to import yarn and fabric, following an amendment to the Import Policy Order (IPO).

The ministry issued a notification on Sunday (20 September), announcing the amendment – much to the relief of the apparel exporters.

The permission requirement was introduced in the new IPO, which came into effect in August. Businesses had criticised the provision, saying it undermined ease of doing business and increased costs.

Exporters said some consignments of raw materials had already arrived at ports but could not be cleared because importers had not obtained the required ministry permission.

They expect the amendment to speed up customs clearance and prevent such complications.

Mohammad Hatem, president of the Bangladesh Knitwear Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BKMEA), said the IPO had made ministry permission mandatory for importing yarn and fabric for hosiery and knitwear.

"As a result, exporters whose consignments had already arrived at the port were unable to clear them, creating complications," he told The Business Standard.

"We hope the new amendment will resolve this problem," he said.

Local textile mills supply around 80% of the yarn and fabric required by Bangladesh's knitwear manufacturers, although they claim to have the capacity to meet the entire demand.

For woven garments, local textile mills can supply around half of the required fabric.

Exporters, however, sometimes import yarn and fabric to meet buyers' specific requirements or take advantage of price differences.

The latest fuel price hike will add to the cost of doing business and put further pressure on export-oriented industries already struggling with declining competitiveness, according to Shams Mahmud, the president of the Bangladesh-Thai Chamber of Commerce and Industry.

Talking to The Business Standard last night (20 September), he said, "As it is, all forms of business activities, including manufacturing, logistics, agro, service sector, and FMCG [fast-moving consumer goods], are going through stress in these turbulent times.

"International energy markets have recently been affected by the strikes in Saudi Arabia by Houthi rebels. Just today [Sunday], Saudi Arabia said next month's shipment of oil to Europe will be withheld."

"So we can anticipate future price increases. The government has taken the right decision as a policy to create a buffer for any price shock, especially about sourcing and subsidy," he said.

"But unfortunately, this will add a burden to the business ecosystem of Bangladesh, with inflationary pressure on the internal economy reducing disposable income. For export-oriented industries, which are already in a vulnerable state with decreasing competitiveness, it will add to the already increasing cost of doing business," said the businessman.

Also, the International Monetary Fund has been pressuring the government for a reduction of subsidies, and it may also have had an influence on the decision, as both parties will sit in Bangkok next month to work out the next loan from the global lender, he added.

The government last night increased the retail prices of diesel, octane, petrol, and kerosene by Tk20 per litre. The revised rates took effect today (21 September).

With the new price adjustment, this is the second time the BNP government has hiked fuel prices after assuming power in February this year. The last price hike was back in April.

The per-litre prices of diesel, octane, petrol, and kerosene have been raised to Tk135, Tk165, Tk160, and Tk155, respectively.

Experts and policymakers have called for a stronger legal and institutional framework to protect intellectual property (IP) as Bangladesh prepares to navigate the challenges of its graduation from Least Developed Country (LDC) status.

They made the call today (21 September) at a focus group discussion titled Industrial Shift in the Post-LDC Era: Strategies for IPR Issues of Key Industries, jointly organised by the Economic Relations Division (ERD) and the Dhaka Chamber of Commerce and Industry (DCCI).

Participants said the post-graduation environment would create both risks and opportunities for major sectors, including pharmaceuticals, ready-made garments, information technology and agriculture, making stronger intellectual property rights (IPR) protection increasingly important.

ERD Secretary Md Shahriar Kader Siddiky, who attended the event as chief guest, stressed the need to strengthen institutional capacity and statutory frameworks to address emerging IP challenges.

He also called for targeted support for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), which may face greater challenges in navigating the evolving intellectual property regime.

Siddiky said the government already allocates funds for research, but weak coordination limits their effective use.

He said the government is working to address the coordination gaps while also advancing the digitalisation of public services.

DCCI President Taskin Ahmed highlighted procedural delays and policy gaps as major obstacles to effective IP protection.

He proposed modernising IP offices, establishing specialised IP tribunals in Dhaka and Chattogram, and introducing an automated system for trademark registration.

He also called for broader industry-specific awareness programmes so businesses can better understand and protect their intellectual property rights.

The latest fuel price hike will increase industrial and transportation costs, inflation, and put all businesses under further pressure, potentially leading to job losses and reduced operations, according to Anwar-ul Alam Chowdhury Parvez, president of the Bangladesh Chamber of Industries.

Talking to The Business Standard last night (20 September), he said, "The country is experiencing high inflation that is not coming under control. Industries are not getting adequate gas and electricity, resulting in very low private-sector credit growth.

"At such a time, increasing fuel prices by more than 15% without consulting anyone will create additional pressure across all sectors."

The government last night increased the retail prices of diesel, octane, petrol, and kerosene by Tk20 per litre. The revised rates took effect today (21 September).

With the new price adjustment, this is the second time the BNP government has hiked fuel prices after assuming power in February this year. The last price hike was back in April.

The per-litre prices of diesel, octane, petrol, and kerosene have been raised to Tk135, Tk165, Tk160, and Tk155, respectively.

He said the decision will increase industrial production costs, transportation costs, and inflation. "The prices of goods will become uncontrollable. People will lose their jobs, while many businesses will have to scale back their operations.

"Non-performing loans in banks will increase. The government will not be able to create the employment it has been promising," he opined.

He feared that such decisions by the government will erode public confidence in the BNP administration. "Overall, it will create a socioeconomic crisis."

Ending a continuous depreciation trend spanning five and a half years, the Bangladeshi Taka (BDT) has shown signs of appreciation against the US dollar, according to a Bangladesh Bank (BB) report released on Sunday.

On a point-to-point basis from June last year to June this year, the value of the Taka appreciated by 0.06 per cent. Furthermore, between August 30 and September 17, the local currency strengthened by 0.77 per cent against the greenback.

Central bank data shows that the Taka experienced an unbroken streak of depreciation against the US dollar from 2021 until September 17 this year. During this period, the exchange rate surged from Tk 85.80 per dollar to a record high of Tk123.95—reflecting a devaluation of Tk 38.20, or 45.05 per cent, reports UNB.

However, the trend began reversing in the second half of this year. After peaking at Tk 123.95 on August 30, the dollar rate dropped by 95 paisa to Tk 123.00 on September 17, resulting in a 0.77 per cent gain for the Taka over those three weeks.

According to central bank statistics

End-December 2019: The dollar traded at Tk 84.90.

End-December 2020: The dollar fell by 10 paisa to Tk 84.80, appreciating the Taka by 0.12 percent due to lower pandemic-era import demand, reduced global commodity prices, and robust remittance inflows.

End-December 2021: Rising import demand and surging global prices pushed the dollar to Tk85.80, devaluing the Taka by 1.18 per cent.

End-December 2022: Fueled by the Russia-Ukraine war, global fuel and commodity prices spiked, increasing import bills while exports and remittances slowed. The dollar jumped to Tk105.85—a Tk 20.05 or Tk23.37 per cent increase—devaluing the Taka by an equivalent margin.

End-December 2023: Continued pressures raised the dollar rate by Tk4.15 or 3.92 per cent to Tk 110.00.

End-December 2024: The dollar climbed another Tk 10.00 to Tk 120.00, eroding the Taka’s value by 9.09 per cent over the year.

End-December 2025: Depreciation persisted as the dollar reached Tk122.33, up Tk 2.33 or 1.94 per cent over the year.

The Bangladesh Bank report also compared regional currency movements from June last year to June this year

Depreciated Currencies: The Indian Rupee depreciated by nearly 9.5 per cent, the Sri Lankan Rupee lost over 10 per cent, and the Indonesian Rupiah declined by around 9 per cent.

Appreciated Currencies: The Malaysian Ringgit and Chinese Yuan both gained nearly 4.0 per cent, while the Pakistani Rupee appreciated by around 2.0 per cent.

The central bank noted that after a prolonged period of weakening, the Bangladeshi Taka has shifted to a relatively stronger position.

Economic Implications:

A depreciating Taka directly elevates import costs for fuel, industrial raw materials, and food items, passing price increases onto consumers, driving inflation, and dampening real purchasing power—especially for low- and middle-income households. It also increases the domestic currency burden of servicing foreign debt.

Conversely, a strengthening Taka relieves pressure on import expenditures and lowers the local currency cost of foreign debt servicing, though the broader impact will depend on future trends in imports, exports, remittances, foreign exchange reserves, and international market conditions.

The National Board of Revenue (NBR) has made online VAT return filing mandatory for 11 goods and services to improve compliance, boost revenue collection and bring VAT documentation under a digital system.

Eight are from the manufacturing sector -- cigarettes, mobile phones, medicines, beverages, cement, MS products, tiles, and paints and varnishes. Three are from the services sector -- insurance, banking and non-banking financial services, and mobile financial services.

A general order to this effect was issued by the VAT department of the NBR yesterday.

Nearly 40 percent of the revenue board’s total VAT collection comes from these sectors, according to the NBR.

The measure is aimed at bringing the submission of relevant VAT documents under a digital system.

Under the order, if a registered person is directly involved in supplying any of the listed goods or services to another person, the requirement will also apply to that person’s activities.

Any previous order issued by the NBR relating to the mandatory online submission of relevant documents will be considered cancelled once the new order comes into effect.

However, the NBR will retain the authority to amend the list of goods and services covered by the order whenever necessary. The order took effect immediately.

The move comes as the tax authority expands digital processes for VAT administration amid lower VAT collection, seeking to bring more business transactions and compliance activities under online systems.

Md Azizur Rahman, member (VAT Policy) of the NBR, said the move to bring VAT returns online was aimed at gradually incorporating all sectors into the e-VAT system.

“We want to bring all sectors under digital coverage. We are doing it gradually,” he said, adding that filing is not yet mandatory for those outside the listed sectors, as there is no official gazette and commissioners are simply taking the initiative.

The NBR is initially bringing around 11 sectors under mandatory online filing, citing a provision under Section 64 of this year’s budget.

“Among them are production sectors -- many already submit online, but we will bring the entire sector fully online. We may bring another 10 sectors next month, and gradually cover as many as possible by June,” he said.

“At present, we receive around 60 percent of returns online on average, but the remaining 40 percent isn’t coming in. For the sectors we’re bringing in now, submission will have to be 100 percent online. The VAT department will ensure that through whatever method is necessary.”

Faysal Ahmed, a chartered accountant, said the move may boost online VAT return filing and strengthen the NBR’s capacity for VAT compliance and data verification.

“As a result, businesses will need to ensure proper reconciliation and data accuracy among their sales, purchases, input-output VAT and VAT return information. This will play a positive role in the government’s VAT collection,” he said.

The Indian deputy high commissioner has called for stronger trade and investment ties between Bangladesh and India, urging both countries to remove tariff and non-tariff barriers and build closer links between businesses.

Pawan Badhe made the call during a courtesy meeting with Md Fazlul Hoque, administrator of the Federation of Bangladesh Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FBCCI), at the federation’s Gulshan office in Dhaka yesterday.

Pawan proposed forming a business-to-business task force to strengthen cooperation between the private sectors of the two countries.

He said his office was in regular contact with the governments of Bangladesh and India to speed up the formation of the task force. He also sought support from Bangladesh’s private sector, led by the FBCCI.

Pawan also said visa procedures for Bangladeshi travellers to India had been eased and that the Indian high commission was issuing numerous visas every day.

The FBCCI administrator said a joint task force could help boost bilateral trade and deepen cooperation between the two countries.

He urged businesses and entrepreneurs from Bangladesh and India to work together to increase investment and trade in emerging and promising sectors.

The meeting comes as businesses in both countries seek to expand commercial ties and address barriers to cross-border trade.

US factory production unexpectedly fell in August and higher oil prices and rising interest rates could offset some of the support from an artificial intelligence buildout, likely keeping activity moderate for the rest of the year.

The decline in output, reported by the Federal Reserve on Friday, followed seven straight months of increases.

The US central bank on Wednesday raised interest rates for the first time in three years and flagged further increases in borrowing costs in the months ahead.

Oil prices are hovering above $100 a barrel with no end in sight to the US-Israeli war with Iran.

“Looking ahead, we think manufacturing output will rise a little further over coming months, but will fail to match the pace set in the first half of this year,” said Samuel Tombs, chief US economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.

“Some manufacturers likely will find that demand softens as they pass on higher energy prices to consumers.”

Manufacturing output dropped 0.3 percent last month following an unrevised 0.2 percent rise in July. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast production would increase 0.3 percent.

Output advanced 0.9 percent on a year-over-year basis in August, a modest increase that, according to some economists, indicated the Trump administration’s aggressive trade policy had not had the desired effect of rejuvenating the nation’s industrial base.

Production in the sector, which accounts for about 9.4 percent of the economy, received a boost in prior months as businesses rushed orders to avoid shortages and higher prices from the escalation of the war in the Middle East.

The decline in August was led by a 0.5 percent drop in the production of long-lasting manufactured goods. Motor vehicles and parts production decreased 1.2 percent, notching a second straight monthly decline.

Output of computers and peripheral equipment fell 1.4 percent, but was up 5.5 percent on a year-over-year basis.

Production of communications equipment increased 0.8 percent.

Though the output of semiconductors and related electronic components dipped 0.1 percent, this category was up 12.4 percent from a year ago.

The AI spending spree has cushioned the blow from import tariffs on manufacturing.

Some economists are still betting on a strong manufacturing performance this year, despite a sharp rise in longer-dated US Treasury yields in recent weeks and the Fed’s decision to raise its benchmark overnight interest rate by 25 basis points to the 3.75 percent-4.00 percent range.

POSSIBLE TAILWIND FROM HIGHER DEFENSE SPENDING

“We still look for manufacturing activity to pick up through next year, and the AI infrastructure buildout is a key reason for our sanguine outlook,” said Bernard Yaros, lead US economist at Oxford Economics.

“The demand case for AI still seems strong enough to shrug off higher-for-longer rates and increased geopolitical risk. Greater defense spending will also act as another tailwind.”

Restocking by businesses that have run down inventories for five straight quarters to meet robust demand could also provide a lift to manufacturing, though some economists argued that trend could be overshadowed by the drag from rising costs.

Production of nondurable goods was unchanged after falling 0.4 percent in July.

Rises in output at textile mills as well as for apparel and leather products were offset by declines in the production of plastics and rubber goods, and petroleum and coal.

“Factory output shows the first signs of a slowdown which could worsen if the geopolitical headwinds intensify and diesel fuel prices do not come back down,” said Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS.

“Soaring energy prices are costly for industry and higher diesel prices may start to chip away at the manufacturing renaissance picture painted by White House economic officials.”

Mining production edged up 0.1 percent last month, matching the rise in July.

Oil and gas well drilling increased 0.9 percent after accelerating by 5.2 percent in July.

Utilities production shot up 1.8 percent after climbing 0.5 percent in July.

Overall industrial production was unchanged last month after gaining 0.2 percent in July.

Industrial output advanced 1.4 percent on a year-over-year basis in August.

Capacity utilization for the industrial sector, a measure of how fully firms are using their resources, was unchanged at 76.3 percent in August.

It is 3.1 percentage points below its 1972–2025 average.

The operating rate for the manufacturing sector fell 0.3 percentage points to 75.7 percent.

It is 2.5 percentage points below its long-run average.

“There is no evidence here that tariffs or anything are generating an influx of new jobs in manufacturing and industry,” said Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics.

A visiting delegation from China's Yunnan Province met with Bangladeshi officials and business leaders in Dhaka on Sunday to explore avenues for expanding bilateral trade, investment, and broader economic cooperation between Bangladesh and Yunnan.

Mohammad Hasan Arif, Vice Chairman and Chief Executive (Additional Secretary) of the Export Promotion Bureau (EPB), presided over the meeting.

The discussions focused on strengthening existing trade ties, creating new market opportunities, establishing business connections, and expanding mutual trade prospects between Bangladesh and Yunnan Province, reports UNB.

Led by the Department of Commerce of Yunnan Province, the Chinese delegation comprised government officials, entrepreneurs, and business leaders representing various sectors.

The meeting emphasized facilitating direct communication and business partnerships between Yunnan-based enterprises and Bangladeshi government agencies, trade associations, and private sector stakeholders.

Members of the Yunnan delegation expressed keen interest in conducting market research, appointing local agents and distributors, exploring import-export opportunities in agricultural and agro-based products, utilizing logistics services, and gaining insights into Bangladesh’s commercial infrastructure, including Chittagong Port.

The Yunnan Department of Commerce proposed several initiatives, including assessing market demand in Bangladesh for construction materials, engineering products, and agricultural machinery. Their proposals also highlighted visiting local trade exhibitions and commercial markets, building distribution and logistics networks, and expanding exports of agricultural and light industrial goods.

Additionally, the meeting explored creating stronger trade linkages between Yunnan’s product offerings and Bangladeshi textiles and specialized agricultural products.

EPB Vice Chairman Mohammad Hasan Arif underscored the need to complement government-level cooperation with robust Business-to-Business (B2B) interactions, market integration, and strategic commercial partnerships to make economic ties between Bangladesh and Yunnan more dynamic and fruitful.

Both sides agreed to maintain continuous communication across sectors of mutual interest to establish effective commercial links between the business communities of Bangladesh and Yunnan Province.

Expatriate Bangladeshis sent over US$1.87 billion in remittances during the first 19 days of September 2026, marking a slight monthly increase compared to the same period of the previous fiscal year, according to the latest Bangladesh Bank (BB) data.

During the corresponding period from September 1 to September 19 in 2025, the country received $1.86 billion in remittances.

The latest figures reflect a 0.4 per cent growth for the month up to September 19 in the current fiscal year (FY 2026–27), reports UNB.

Between September 17 and September 19 alone, remittance inflows stood at $130 million.

The overall fiscal year-to-date performance shows stronger upward momentum.

From July 1 to September 19 of the current fiscal year (FY 2026–27), total remittance inflows reached $7.70 billion.

This represents a 13.8 per cent yearly growth compared to the $6.76 billion received during the same period in FY 2025–26 (July 1 to September 19, 2025).

OpenAI expects to burn through $278 billion in cash between 2026 and 2030 as it ramps up spending on computing power and infrastructure, the Financial Times reported on Friday, citing a company presentation seen by the newspaper.

The projection highlights OpenAI’s funding needs as it seeks fresh investment, with the FT reporting earlier this week that the ChatGPT maker had held talks with investors that could value it at about $1.2 trillion ahead of a potential listing.

OpenAI filed confidentially for an IPO in June, but CEO Sam Altman said on Saturday the company would not go public in 2026 because of concerns about AI safety.

OpenAI forecasts negative free cash flow of $278 billion over the five-year period from 2026 to 2030 while investing aggressively to secure computing capacity needed to train and run its AI models, FT said.

The AI firm expects revenue to increase tenfold over the same period, rising from $36 billion this year to $350 billion in 2030, the FT said, adding that OpenAI anticipates generating a cumulative $840 billion in revenue through the end of the decade.

OpenAI forecasts spending about $856 billion on computing power and infrastructure by the end of 2030, its largest expense category, the report said. The FT said the company raised $122 billion in March at an $852 billion valuation but is on track to exhaust that cash by 2028.

OpenAI could not immediately be reached for comment outside regular business hours.

Foreign investors have continued to offload their holdings in Marico Bangladesh Limited, an India-based multinational personal care manufacturer, selling around 3.15 lakh shares worth approximately Tk85 crore between March and August this year.

According to Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) data, foreign investors' stake in the company fell from 1.91% in March to 0.91% in August, a decline of 1% point in the company's total outstanding shares.

The monthly figures show a steady sell-off, with foreign holdings declining to 1.85% in April, 1.80% in May, 1.53% in June and 0.99% in July before reaching 0.91% in August.

Norway's sovereign wealth fund, the world's largest sovereign wealth fund and Marico's primary foreign shareholder, also reduced its stake to 0.52% in the first half of 2026, from 0.67% in 2025.

Market insiders said Marico, once considered a preferred stock among listed multinational companies, has seen its appeal among foreign investors weaken, mainly due to macroeconomic headwinds rather than any significant deterioration in the company's underlying performance.

Despite the recent sell-off, Marico still has the third-highest foreign ownership among listed multinational companies, behind British American Tobacco Bangladesh and Bata Shoe Company (Bangladesh).

As of August, sponsors and directors held 90% of Marico's shares, while institutional investors held 6.72%, the public 2.37% and foreign shareholders 0.91%.

The foreign exit coincides with a recent quarterly earnings dip. Marico Bangladesh, producer of the popular Parachute brand, reported a 12.38% year-on-year drop in net profit to Tk170.47 crore for the April–June quarter of 2026, its first quarterly profit decline in four years. Revenue, however, grew 4% to Tk531.86 crore during the period.

Management attributed the profit contraction to rising raw material prices and lower finance income.

Earnings per share (EPS) fell to Tk54.12 from Tk61.77, while net operating cash flow per share dropped to Tk20.28 from Tk66.73 due to higher supplier payments.

Meanwhile, net asset value per share rose to Tk146.14 as of 30 June 2026, up from Tk92.02 in March.

Despite the profit decline, the board declared a massive 500% interim cash dividend (Tk50 per share), continuing its trend of high dividend payouts to repatriate profits to its Indian parent company, Marico Limited.

Envoy Textile and Apex Footwear have scheduled board meetings to consider their audited financial statements for FY26, including potential dividend declarations for shareholders.

According to Dhaka Stock Exchange disclosures, Envoy Textile's board will meet on 27 September at 3pm, while Apex Footwear's meeting is scheduled for 26 September at 5:20pm.

The boards will consider the audited financial statements for the fiscal year ended 30 June 2026, along with other matters.

Envoy Textile's earnings weakened in the third quarter of FY26, with earnings per share (EPS) falling to Tk1.54 in January-March from Tk2.44 a year earlier. For the nine months through March, EPS declined to Tk5.89 from Tk6.03.

However, its net operating cash flow per share (NOCFPS) rose sharply to Tk16.85 during July 2025-March 2026 from Tk3.27 a year earlier. Net asset value (NAV) per share stood at Tk61.21 at the end of March, up from Tk58.32 at the end of June 2025.

Apex Footwear, meanwhile, reported higher earnings, with quarterly EPS rising to Tk0.54 from Tk0.49 and nine-month EPS increasing to Tk4.54 from Tk3.56.

The company attributed the improvement mainly to higher net sales revenue and profit before tax.

Its NOCFPS, however, fell to Tk122.92 during the nine months from Tk140.95 a year earlier, mainly due to higher payments to suppliers, employees and others amid increased material procurement costs, direct labour expenses, utilities and income tax payments.

Apex Footwear's NAV per share rose to Tk351.89 at the end of March from Tk349.35 at the end of June 2025, mainly reflecting changes in assets and liabilities.

US farmers have just begun harvesting another huge corn crop, following last year’s bumper harvest. But that apparent abundance in the top corn exporter masks a considerably less comfortable picture of world grain supply.

Global corn consumption is forecast to exceed production by nearly 30 million metric tons in 2026/27. According to the US Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates released last Friday, the deficit would be the largest in more than three decades.

Those supply concerns have already made an impression on prices. Corn, wheat and soybean futures have risen significantly in recent months, with Chicago corn staging a record 16 percent rally in August alone, a time when prices are often under seasonal pressure. So why are global grain supplies tightening when US farmers are producing so much? Part of the answer lies elsewhere in the world, and even outside grains themselves.

GLOBAL GRAIN CUSHION THINS

Combined corn and wheat production among major exporting countries is set to fall sharply from last year, even as US farmers begin bringing in their second-largest corn crop on record.

The projected year-on-year decline across those exporters is the largest by volume since 1993/94 and the steepest percentage drop since 2012/13, a season marked by heavy US drought losses.

Although crop prospects have recently improved for some key wheat exporters, that has not erased the broader setback in exportable grain supplies. And beyond the major exporters, total world wheat production, like corn, is also expected to fall short of consumption in 2026/27.

Export availability is another concern: combined Russian and Ukrainian wheat stocks are projected by the USDA to hit a 33-year high, as the war between the two leading suppliers continues to disrupt Black Sea trade. And the challenge may extend beyond this season.

GRAINS LOSING THE ACREAGE BATTLE

Over the last quarter-century, the world’s major agricultural exporters have dramatically expanded oilseed plantings, while grain acreage among key suppliers has stagnated.

Harvested area across major oilseed and oilseed product exporters in 2026/27 is more than double its 2000/01 level. Major grain exporters have expanded acreage by just 5 percent.

A closer look reveals that corn acreage has expanded substantially over that period, though wheat acres have contracted. In other words, the acreage constraint is not uniform across grains, but the overall contrast with oilseeds is unmistakable.

Yet grain demand continues to grow. Yield improvements have carried an enormous share of the burden, leaving less room for weather disappointments in years when grain acreage is relatively small.

Oilseeds are on the other side of the coin. Expanding acreage, particularly in Brazil, has been central to the explosion in global soybean production. But even there, acreage growth may be slowing.

BRAZIL HITS THE BRAKES

Brazil’s statistics body, Conab, on Tuesday issued its first 2026/27 soybean outlook, forecasting yet another record crop in the world’s leading exporter. But only fractionally so.

Brazilian farmers are expected to expand soybean plantings at the slowest rate in 20 years as weaker margins, expensive credit and fertilizer costs curb their appetite for more acres.

Add in what experts say could be the strongest El Niño on record, which threatens yields in top-producing Mato Grosso, and Brazil could be unusually vulnerable to an output decline.

The market isn’t used to that. For years, it could count on Brazil adding substantial acreage almost regardless of what happened elsewhere, often diluting the impact of year-to-year yield swings.

The grain story extends to Brazil, too. Conab sharply raised its 2025/26 domestic corn consumption estimate on stronger ethanol demand, meaning less of the country’s huge crop is available for export.

Brazil is expected to harvest another record corn crop in 2026/27, but the demand shift is a reminder that bigger crops do not necessarily translate into equally large gains in exportable supply.

SOLVABLE IN 2027?

None of this necessarily points to the kind of grain scarcity seen in 2012. The US still has a respectable corn supply buffer, Brazil remains capable of producing record crops and wheat is harvested around the world throughout the year.

But the point still stands: global grain stocks are a lot less comfortable than a year ago, and the recent rally makes clear that markets have noticed.

Exceptionally weak wheat prices helped US farmers go big on corn and soybeans in 2026, pushing all-wheat plantings to a record low. Wheat prices have since recovered, and the competition for next year’s acres is already heating up.

That could make another huge US corn planting slightly trickier in 2027, just when the global balance sheet may need it most.