QatarEnergy has extended force majeure notices and will not be able ‌to deliver liquefied natural gas cargoes to Italian utility Edison or some Asian clients as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, Edison and trading sources said today (28 September).

Edison, one of the company's biggest customers in Europe, will not ​receive LNG cargoes until the beginning of December, the Italian group said on Monday, in ​the latest extension under a force majeure notification first issued in April following disruptions caused ⁠by the US-Iran war.
Clients in Asia, including in Bangladesh and Pakistan, were also informed that force ​majeure notices had been extended until November, two trading sources said.

QatarEnergy did not immediately respond to a ​request for comment.

Qatar is among the Iran conflict's biggest economic casualties, with its liquefied natural gas exports slashed by 96%, Reuters calculated at the end of August.

While neighbouring Gulf exporters have managed to ship oil secretly out of the ​Strait of Hormuz, Qatar had exported just 18 LNG cargoes until end-August, down from 509 in the ​same period last year, according to data intelligence firm ICIS.

Winter season will fuel competition for limited supply

With the winter ‌heating ⁠season starting within days, buyers in Europe will have to look elsewhere to refill gas storage inventories ahead of the coldest months of the year.

That will fuel competition with Asian clients for the limited available global supply, and keep gas prices elevated.

While Italy is confident it will meet the European Union's ​target for its gas ​buffer, several countries, including ⁠Germany, are rushing to fill their storage tanks.

In a message on an Italian energy markets platform, Edison said QatarEnergy would cancel a further six LNG ​cargoes, taking the total undelivered shipments to 35.

The Italian subsidiary of France's ​EDF has replaced ⁠23 cargoes so far, turning mainly to US suppliers to make up for missing deliveries from the Gulf.

Edison holds a long-term contract with QatarEnergy for the supply of 6.4 billion cubic metres of natural gas ⁠per year ​to Italy, around 10% of the country's total consumption.

The contract, ​which has been in force since 2009, has a total duration of 25 years.

Prime Minister Tarique Rahman on Monday emphasised further expansion of bilateral trade, investment and development cooperation with China as its outgoing Ambassador Yao Wen paid a farewell call on him at his office.

Prime Minister’s Deputy Press Secretary Hasan Shiplu said the meeting discussed various issues of mutual interest, including the Rohingya crisis.

Yao Wen congratulated the prime minister on his successful participation in the 81st session of the United Nations General Assembly and his various engagements in New York.

The Chinese ambassador said China’s support for Bangladesh’s development efforts would continue. He also expressed hope that relations between Bangladesh and China would be further strengthened.

State Minister for Foreign Affairs Humaiun Kobir and Chairman of the Invest Bangladesh Authority Chowdhury Ashik Mahmud Bin Harun were present at the meeting.

The outgoing Chinese ambassador was accompanied by Deputy Chief of Mission Liu Yuyin.

IPDC Finance has received in-principle permission from Bangladesh Bank to launch an Islamic Shariah-based financing business through an Islamic Finance Wing, subject to meeting regulatory conditions.

According to a disclosure on Sunday, the company will take necessary measures to comply with the central bank’s requirements, including amending its Memorandum and Articles of Association and establishing an independent Shariah Supervisory Committee.

The company will also establish a separate Islamic Finance Division, segregate Islamic funds and implement prescribed policies, an operational manual and separate accounting arrangements, according to the disclosure.

Once it fulfils the stipulated conditions, IPDC Finance will apply to Bangladesh Bank for final approval to commence Islamic Shariah-based financing business.

The move will allow the non-bank financial institution to offer financing products based on Islamic Shariah principles alongside its existing conventional financing operations.

Bangladeshi citizens are subject to a specified limit on foreign currency spending when travelling abroad. But the amount spent on air tickets purchased by card will not count towards the travel quota, according to a Bangladesh Bank circular issued on Monday.

If a customer spends a certain amount from their card to purchase a ticket, the relevant bank may refill the same amount in foreign currency to the card after verifying the necessary documents and transaction, according to the circular.

Under Bangladesh Bank’s guidelines, Bangladeshi citizens can spend a maximum of $18,000 a year on overseas travel, while the limit was previously $12,000. But the cost of air tickets will remain outside the $18,000 limit.

Until now, proceeds from ticket sales could only be received locally through domestic banking channels. Under the new directive, however, foreign airlines operating in Bangladesh will also be allowed to receive and settle ticket-sale proceeds through their own international payment settlement arrangements outside Bangladesh. This facility will not apply to domestic airlines. Domestic airlines will continue to follow the existing local acquiring and settlement rules when selling tickets for travel from Bangladesh to any destination abroad.

Income of foreign airlines settled outside Bangladesh will be adjusted against the respective airlines’ remittable surplus income, and banks will have to submit regular reports through the module specified by Bangladesh Bank.

Bangladesh Bank said Bangladeshis would now be able to purchase tickets from foreign airlines more easily and at more competitive prices using international cards, adding that reducing complications related to international payments would also make airline operations more efficient.

The government is preparing separate export strategies for 18 key trading destinations as part of its export diversification drive.
The destinations are the United States, China, the United Kingdom, India, France, Russia, Malaysia, South Korea, Switzerland, Iran, Brazil, Türkiye, Japan, Canada, Belgium, Australia, New Zealand and Fiji.
Commerce Secretary Md Ataur Rahman Khan disclosed the plan at a workshop on export diversification at the commerce ministry’s conference room in the Secretariat in Dhaka yesterday, according to a ministry press statement.

The strategies aim to increase export earnings and reduce Bangladesh’s reliance on garments by diversifying both products and markets, the ministry said.
Equal emphasis is being given to both product and market diversification to make exports stronger and more sustainable, said Secretary Ataur.

Bangladesh already exports goods to most of the selected markets, but the volumes remain low. Exports to Russia and Iran, both of which are currently engaged in war, have fallen recently.

Currently, the European Union (EU), the US, the UK and Canada are the major export destinations for Bangladesh.
The ministry said it is analysing the market potential, existing barriers, positions of the competing countries and Bangladesh’s scope for expanding trade in these destinations to prepare separate market-specific export strategies.

Ataur said related information to that end has been collected from the country’s trade wings abroad.
Based on the data, a separate action plan will be drawn up for each country, he said.

The analysis follows a set matrix, which covers Bangladesh’s share of total imports in each country, its main competitors in specific products, ways to improve competitiveness, and the policy and institutional measures needed to expand markets, he added.

The exercise will help identify promising new products, expand the market for existing ones and determine the steps needed to enter new markets, the commerce secretary said.

Also speaking at the event, Mustafizur Rahman, distinguished fellow at the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), said services exports deserve equal weight alongside goods.

He called for effective steps to develop information technology, skills-based and capacity-building services, and to support freelancers.

Emphasising skills development and technological advancement, he said the use of technology in the production and service sectors must be increased to enhance Bangladesh’s competitiveness in international markets.

At the same time, he recommended strengthening initiatives to increase exports of Bangladeshi products and services to neighboring countries by leveraging geographical proximity and market potential.

Other participants called for making pharmaceuticals, electronics, agricultural and agro-processed goods, leather and leather goods, light engineering, information technology and other services more competitive in global markets, alongside garments.

LPG operators today (28 September) assured Power, Energy, and Mineral Resources Minister Iqbal Hassan Mahmood Tuku that there is no shortage of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) in the country's market.

They gave the assurance while presenting and reviewing the LPG sector's overall situation at a meeting organised by the ministry's Energy and Mineral Resources Division, according to a press release.

The meeting, chaired by the minister, reviewed the country's current LPG imports, stock and supply situation, market prices, and related issues.

According to data provided by a source at the National Board of Revenue (NBR), Bangladesh imported 157,760 tonnes of LPG in August and 118,742 tonnes between 1 and 22 September.

The data presented at the meeting showed that LPG supply and stock levels in the country are currently satisfactory.

The energy minister urged all concerned to ensure that consumers do not face supply shortages despite adequate stocks.

He also warned against hoarding LPG for illegal purposes and creating public hardship.

The operators assured the minister of their full cooperation in this regard.

The minister also heard about various difficulties faced by operators in running their businesses and instructed the Energy and Mineral Resources Division to take steps to resolve them quickly.

Gold fell 3 percent on Monday to touch its lowest in more than seven weeks, as higher oil prices stoked inflation fears, bolstering the case for elevated interest rates.

Spot gold was down 3 percent at $4,156.45 per ounce, as of 0814 GMT, hitting its lowest since August 5.

US gold futures for December delivery fell 3.1 percent to $4,188.80.

The dollar held firm, making greenback-priced bullion more expensive for holders of other currencies, while US Treasury yields extended gains.

“Higher oil prices and the increased probability of further US rate hikes being priced in by market participants are the main drivers behind gold’s recent weakness,” said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo.

“This backdrop could keep US real yields and the US dollar elevated, raising the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold and contributing to further near-term volatility in the precious metal.”

Brent crude oil rebounded after US President Donald Trump rejected a peace deal from Iran to resolve their conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, keeping tensions in the Middle East elevated.

Rising energy costs tend to drive inflation higher by lifting prices across the economy.

Traders see a 70.3 percent chance of a Fed rate hike in October, CME’s FedWatch Tool showed.

The US central bank earlier this month lifted rates by a quarter percentage point and indicated that additional increases are likely.

On Friday, Cleveland Fed chief Beth Hammack said she is concerned that persistently high inflation risks could condition the American public to accept elevated prices as the norm, adding the central bank cannot let that happen.

Focus is now on a series of US economic releases scheduled for this week, including job openings, the ADP employment report, Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) readings and nonfarm payrolls.

The government is facing pressure to finance the budget at the start of the current fiscal year. Against a record budget of BDT 9.38 trillion, the government has set an ambitious revenue collection target of nearly BDT 7 trillion. Revenue is falling short of expectations amid sluggish economic activity. Pressure is also mounting on the balance of payments. Rising fuel import costs and subsidies, higher salaries and allowances for government employees, and the government’s financing obligations for major projects are also increasing expenditure. Budget financing has consequently come under strain in the first quarter of the fiscal year.

The agency collected BDT 518.92 billion in revenue in the first two months of the current fiscal year, July and August, against a target of BDT 810.53 billion for the period, according to data from the National Board of Revenue (NBR). The shortfall was therefore around BDT 291.61 billion. More concerningly, the collection was not only below the target but also lower than the BDT 547.68 billion collected during the same period of the 2025-26 fiscal year, meaning revenue collection has already entered negative territory at the beginning of the fiscal year.

The government has set a revenue collection target of BDT 6.95 trillion for the current fiscal year. Of this, the NBR’s target has been set at BDT 6.04 trillion. The NBR has not yet officially released the revenue collection figures for the first two months of the current fiscal year.

Former National Board of Revenue (NBR) Chairman Dr Nasiruddin Ahmed told Bonik Barta, “Revenue collection is directly linked to economic activity. If people’s incomes increase, income tax will rise; if business profits increase, corporate tax will rise; and if imports increase, customs and other revenues will rise. The more dynamic the economy and business and trade become, the greater the scope for revenue collection. Much will depend on how much support the government provides to businesses and trade in the coming days and how it addresses global challenges.”

Stagnation in private-sector lending and investment is also putting pressure on the budget financing situation. Business and trade activity has slowed due to high interest rates, the energy crisis and weak market demand. This is affecting industrial production, employment and business profits. As the economy loses momentum, the government’s tax base is also shrinking. Private-sector credit growth is currently at its lowest level, and it has remained below 5 percent for five consecutive months. Experts believe that if this trend continues, the government will not be able to collect revenue from business, trade and industry at the desired rate, increasing its reliance on borrowing to meet expenditure.

The investment picture in the public sector is also not encouraging. As a large share of the budget is being spent on the operating side, expenditure on development has fallen behind. In the outgoing 2025–26 fiscal year, only BDT 1.41 trillion was spent against an allocation of around BDT 2.09 trillion under the Annual Development Programme (ADP), or 67.52 percent of the total allocation, the lowest implementation rate in 50 years. The downward trend has continued into the current fiscal year. ADP implementation stood at only 1.85 percent in July and August combined. Revenue expenditure is consequently increasing while implementation of capital expenditure is falling behind.

Anwar-ul Alam Chowdhury Parvez, president of the Bangladesh Chamber of Industries (BCI), told Bonik Barta, “Private-sector credit flows have been declining steadily, while government spending has been relatively high. ADP implementation was also at its lowest level last year. There has been no significant positive change in the first two months of the current fiscal year either. Investment in both the public and private sectors is consequently declining. This is affecting economic growth and revenue collection.”

The business leader also said: “Many small, cottage and micro businesses in rural areas are shutting down due to high interest rates and the energy crisis. Large industries are also under pressure. When businesses shut down, it doesn’t only reduce production; employment and people’s incomes also decline. This affects government revenue as well. New investment is also falling due to high inflation, electricity and energy costs, and high interest rates on bank loans. Many industrial establishments are unable to operate at full capacity as market demand has declined. It’ll be difficult to increase revenue unless the economy regains momentum.”

The energy sector is one of the major sources of expenditure pressure. Geopolitical tensions arising from the conflict between Iran and the United States in the Middle East have disrupted energy supplies and triggered an abnormal rise in prices. The government has consequently had to spend more on fuel imports. The government claims that the Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation (BPC) incurred losses of BDT 228.75 billion over the past six and a half months since it took office. During this period, spot-market LNG prices tripled.

In the first two and a half months of the current fiscal year, the government has had to provide BDT 103 billion in subsidies for the LNG sector. The allocation for LNG subsidies for the entire fiscal year, however, was BDT 60 billion. If current prices persist, LNG import costs could exceed BDT 900 billion in the current fiscal year. Losses in the power sector could also reach BDT 600 billion. The government is already trying to manage the additional costs by raising electricity and energy prices.

Analysts, however, say higher energy and electricity prices will push up the prices of goods and services, further fuelling inflation. This will increase pressure on consumers while reducing household consumption expenditure, potentially prolonging the slowdown in the economy.

Alongside higher expenditure in the energy and power sectors, increased salaries and allowances for government employees are also creating fresh pressure on government spending. Although the government has decided to pay the increased salaries and allowances in several phases, the financial burden will begin in the current fiscal year. Once the full increase is implemented, government expenditure will rise by more than BDT 1 trillion. The government will also have to incur additional expenditure on the basic salaries of employees of state-owned entities and institutions, as well as teachers and staff under the Monthly Pay Order (MPO) scheme.

Export growth has also been declining amid stagnation in the industrial sector and the energy crisis. Import costs, in contrast, are rising due to higher prices of energy and consumer goods in the global market. Import expenditure on services has also increased along the same lines. This trend of expenditure rising faster than foreign currency earnings is having an adverse impact on the country’s balance of payments (BoP).

Bangladesh exported goods worth $4.42 billion in July of the 2025–26 fiscal year, according to central bank data, while the figure fell to $4.35 billion in the same month of the 2026–27 fiscal year, meaning exports declined by 1.6 percent year-on-year.

Meanwhile, goods worth $6.44 billion were imported in July of the current fiscal year, compared with imports worth $5.93 billion in the same month of the previous fiscal year, reflecting an increase in import expenditure by 8.6 percent. If this divergent trend of falling export earnings and rising import expenditure persists, the BoP deficit could widen further by the end of the fiscal year, while the country’s foreign exchange reserves could also come under pressure.

These additional expenditure pressures are compounded by the government’s obligations to repay various loans taken by the previous government. In the first two months of the current 2026–27 fiscal year, July and August, the government repaid more than twice as much in foreign loans as it received in disbursements of foreign assistance. Foreign loan disbursements during the two months amounted to $294.56 million, while the government had to repay $698.9 million. The amount of debt repayment will increase further by the end of the fiscal year. A substantial amount will also have to be paid in interest on these loans during the same period.

To meet the budget deficit, the government borrowed nearly BDT 200 billion from domestic sources in July, the first month of the fiscal year, according to central bank data. The government’s demand for such borrowing increased further in August and the current month, according to sources. The figures, however, have not yet been released.

To increase revenue collection, the NBR is taking various measures, including resolving revenue disputes pending in court. But it remains uncertain how quickly and to what extent these measures will generate additional revenue. At the same time, unless new investment and business expansion take place in the economy, there will be limited scope to strengthen the base of regular revenue collection.

Dr Zahid Hussain, former lead economist at the World Bank’s Dhaka office, told Bonik Barta, “Various signs indicate that the government is facing a financial crunch at the very beginning of the fiscal year. Although raising fuel and electricity prices may help ease the expenditure pressure to some extent, the overall pressure isn’t declining. The government will have to spend additional funds on higher salaries for government employees, as well as salaries and allowances for employees of state-owned institutions and agencies and MPO-listed teachers. The government’s funding obligations for major projects will also add to this. As expenditure is rising, the sources of financing are still unclear.”

He said the expenditure pressure has not arisen solely from conditions in international markets; policy decisions taken by the government are also a major factor. “The big question now is how the government will finance the major spending commitments already made. It won’t be possible to manage this pressure simply by raising taxes or cutting development expenditure. The situation will have to be managed by coordinating all sources, including domestic and foreign borrowing, revenue collection and expenditure rationalisation.”

He further said, “Although the government is considering raising funds by issuing bonds in international markets, the cost won’t be low given current global interest rates. Bond financing will also create repayment pressure when the bonds mature. So if spending decisions are made in anticipation of receiving funds, the government’s financial pressure could increase further in the future.”

The government is increasingly likely to rely on borrowing to finance the budget deficit. If it borrows more from domestic sources, demand for government borrowing in the banking sector will increase, potentially putting pressure on private-sector access to credit. There will also be a risk of higher interest rates. Consequently, efforts to address the budget financing shortfall could further constrain private investment.

Alongside conventional foreign lenders such as the World Bank, IMF and ADB, the government is also considering raising funds by issuing bonds in international markets. But the country’s macroeconomic conditions pose a risk of higher bond yields, creating doubts over whether raising funds through bonds at high interest rates would be financially beneficial in the long run.

Mohammad Muslim Chowdhury, former finance secretary and former comptroller and auditor general (CAG), told Bonik Barta, “A form of macroeconomic imbalance is emerging within the budget deficit target itself. Even after fuel prices have been increased, the pressure from subsidies remains. Revenue collection is also weakening as private-sector credit and investment decline. Despite increasing revenue expenditure, capital expenditure has yet to reach the desired level. Consequently, there’s a risk that the deficit will exceed the target.”

He added: “If the government relies more heavily on domestic borrowing, access to credit for the private sector could shrink and interest rates could rise. If spending approvals continue without restoring the balance between revenue and expenditure, additional risks could emerge in the future for both the value of the currency and the country’s international credit rating.”

China and the United States have agreed to cut tariffs imposed on $60 billion worth of goods ‌imported from each other, on an array of products ranging from US corn to cosmetics, and from Chinese household appliances to toys.

Under the US-China Board of Trade, both countries have each recommended $30 billion of trade in non-sensitive goods for more favourable tariff treatment, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said in a statement on Sunday.

For the United States, that was “unlocking improved market access” for about 30 percent ​of US exports to China, he said.

The reciprocal tariff reduction as well as an extension of a trade truce were among the key takeaways from the ​second summit this year between President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump, hosted in Washington last week.

One of two lists from ⁠the White House showed that China planned to trim duties on a variety of US agricultural goods, including corn, wheat, sorghum, meat, dairy, vegetable oils and meals. It ​did not include soybeans.

Beijing will also look to reduce levies on US fish and seafood, logs and wood products, cosmetics and medical devices.

In another list were Washington’s reciprocal tariff ​cuts for Chinese small appliances such as coffee makers and toasters, tableware, blankets and bed linens.

The lists also included toys, fireworks, artificial flowers, Christmas tree lamps and other holiday decorations, and children’s car seats.

LONGER TRADE TRUCE

China’s commerce ministry said on Monday a two-month extension of a trade truce with the United States through to January 10 would provide room for both sides to evaluate their ​ongoing arrangement to resolve economic and trade issues, while considering how to advance on those fronts.

The extension also provides a “relatively stable and predictable policy environment” for cooperation ​among companies and continued active discussions.

Both sides will hold regular talks on potential investment opportunities and barriers, enhancing policy transparency and predictability, and responding to enterprises’ concerns, the ministry said.

Stocks fell ‌sharply in ⁠China on Monday, with investors having few concrete details to cheer from the leaders’ summit and underlying tensions resurfacing. Technology stocks fell on a bipartisan US push to ban Chinese components from data centres and the benchmark blue-chip index slid more than 2 percent to a one-year low.

AGRICULTURE AND COAL

China’s choice of products for tariff cuts looks designed to help Beijing meet what the White House says is a $17-billion commitment to buy agricultural goods. China has already resumed large-scale buying of US soybeans under a deal ​struck last year to buy 25 million ​metric tons annually.

Both countries will set ⁠up an agriculture working group under a trade council, which will hold its first meeting before the year ends to discuss two-way market access and regulation, the commerce ministry said.

The presidential summit also yielded an agreement for China to import 10 million ​metric tons of coal annually from the United States in 2027 and 2028, the White House release showed. That amount ​roughly equals 2 percent of ⁠China’s coal imports each year.

Liquefied natural gas and oil were not on the list.

“Importing US coal is not only a beneficial supplement to China’s domestic coal market, but also brings stable economic income and employment to the US coal industry,” the Chinese ministry said.

AI, FINANCIAL FIRMS AND DIRECT FLIGHTS

On artificial intelligence, both sides have agreed on a communication channel ⁠for incidents ​and will hold a follow-up dialogue by the end of November.

China will also examine and approve foreign ​financial services institutions, including those with US capital, to conduct business and open branches in China.

There will also be continued communication on increasing flights between China and the United States, the ministry statement said.

Bangladesh Bank has offered a series of concessions to reduce defaulted loans, including rescheduling with nominal down payments and one-time settlements with interest waivers. But the concessions have failed to draw in large defaulters. The number of large and medium-sized defaulters is steadily rising, while the number of small borrowers in default is falling.

The number of defaulters in the banking sector fell from 4,486,286 at the end of June 2025 to 3,946,914 in June 2026, according to central bank data. None of those who dropped off the list was large borrowers. The number of borrowers with BDT 10 million or more in defaulted loans instead rose by 530 over the period, whereas defaulters with loans of up to BDT 10 million fell by 539,902.

The figures, published on Sunday in Bangladesh Bank’s Banking Sector Update report, set out a striking disparity across loan sizes. At the end of June, 33.2 percent of all loans disbursed by the banking sector were in default. The default rate for small loans was less than half that average, with loans of up to BDT 10 million carrying a default rate of 15 percent.

For larger amounts, default rates rise sharply. Loans of BDT 10 million to BDT 100 million stand at 26.9 percent in default, rising to 44.6 percent for loans between BDT 100 million and BDT 200 million. The rate sits at 37.9 percent for loans of BDT 200 million to BDT 300 million and 38.8 percent for BDT 300 million to BDT 400 million.

Borrowers with loans of BDT 400 million to BDT 500 million have the highest default rate — 46.4 percent. Those with more than BDT 500 million are close behind: Bangladesh Bank reports that banks cannot recover 43.4 percent of loans taken by this group, which has shown little response to recovery appeals.

More than 70 percent of bank lending is concentrated in large and medium-sized industries, according to the central bank’s report, and nearly 40 percent of the loans disbursed to those sectors are now in default.

Defaulted loans across the banking sector as a whole exceeded BDT 6.06 trillion at the end of June 2026, with large and medium businesses accounting for nearly 80 percent of the total. Central bank data show that banks had BDT 18.08 trillion in total outstanding loans, 60 percent of which went to large industries, where 39.6 percent of disbursed funds have turned bad.

Medium industry received 6.7 percent of all lending, with 38.7 percent in default. Small and micro industry, key to the rural economy and employment, received just 13.5 percent of bank lending, while cottage industry accounted for only 1.9 percent.

Bank executives and others involved in the sector say small and micro entrepreneurs repay their bank loans, but large entrepreneurs have created a culture of borrowing without repayment. They allege that money was siphoned out of more than half the country’s banks during the 15 years of the ousted Awami League government through loans, with the collusion of bank boards and management. After the July 2024 uprising, many businessmen identified as bank looters fled the country, while others were arrested and remain in prison.

These factors have contributed to a continuing decline in recovery rates for large loans, according to stakeholders. By contrast, small entrepreneurs continue to repay bank loans despite economic stagnation, high inflation and higher interest rates.

Arief Hossain Khan, the central bank’s spokesman and an executive director, told Bonik Barta that genuine entrepreneurs always repay their loans, with CMSME borrowers leading the way.

“For several years, we have been pressing for more lending to micro and small entrepreneurs. It didn’t take much effect for a long time, but lending to the sector has risen since last year,” he said. “We hope that in the coming years the CMSME sector will be able to play a bigger role in the economy.”

Among the country’s banks, BRAC Bank PLC lends the most to CMSME borrowers. The bank’s default rate is currently below 2 percent overall and about 1 percent on small loans, according to managing director and chief executive Tareq Refat Ullah Khan.

“Half of BRAC Bank’s loan portfolio is in the CMSME sector, and nearly half of that has gone to micro-businesses,” he told Bonik Barta. “Our recovery rate from those micro-entrepreneurs is the best of any group. If the right person is chosen for a small loan, it shouldn’t go into default. What we have seen is that these entrepreneurs are eager to repay.”

Getting loans to micro and small entrepreneurs requires a nationwide physical network and close supervision to ensure funds are used properly, Khan added. BRAC Bank employs about 10,200 permanent staff alongside more than 3,500 other people who work with the bank, most of them assigned to SMEs.

While this keeps the bank’s income-to-expense ratio relatively high, Khan attributed it to the foundation of BRAC Bank’s success. He added that many had initially been wary of investing in the sector, but that “greater expertise over time would help bring down costs” and the model would then become profitable.

The recent pullback in the global AI trade has improved investor positioning, made valuations attractive and could spur a re-engagement, particularly in semiconductor stocks, JP Morgan analysts said on Monday.

“Tech may not return to past levels of success...still, the fundamental case is constructive and there are plenty of opportunities within the AI complex,” JP Morgan analysts led by Mislav Matejka said in a note.

The brokerage said investor positioning in AI has become cleaner, valuations have fallen significantly across most areas and capital spending is likely to remain strong, despite recent concerns about a slowdown.

JP Morgan added that continued earnings strength and growing evidence of AI monetization should support renewed interest in the sector.

AI stocks rallied at the start of the year but have since weakened on concerns over capex spending and its immediate returns.

AI-linked stocks plunged earlier this month, after top AI executives warned about the risks of rapid development.

JP Morgan sees better trading ahead on earnings strength and reduced macro volatility. The brokerage retains a bullish stance on semiconductor stocks, citing healthy fundamentals, pricing growth into 2027 and tight supply-demand conditions likely to persist until 2028.

JP Morgan remains cautious on software, adding that AI growth continues to cloud the sector’s long-term outlook as competition intensifies.

“We do not think Software is a good naked short, given the dramatic de-rating, but semis vs software pair trade should be re-entered,” the brokerage added.

The MSCI World Semiconductors and Semiconductor Equipment Index, a performance gauge for global semi stocks, has risen about 48 percent so far this year.

The MSCI World Software and Services index has gained only 1.3 percent.

The Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) is pushing for a unified, secure back-office software system for brokerage houses to prevent the misuse of investors' funds and detect financial irregularities in real time.

The system would give regulators real-time access to brokers' bank balances and funds held in customer clearing accounts (CCAs), enabling daily reconciliation and early detection of any shortfall, BSEC Chairman Masud Khan said today (28 September).

"We need a unified back-office software that will be highly protected and provide real-time data from brokers so that we can conduct complete reconciliation every day," he said at a programme in Dhaka.

He was speaking at the inauguration of the distribution of Investor Protection Fund (IPF) money to investors affected by financial irregularities at brokerage houses. The event was organised by the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) at DSE Tower.

Masud said financial irregularities involving five securities houses had affected 17,967 investors, with Tk492 crore involved in the cases.

Calling the scale of the problem concerning, he said the BSEC, DSE and investor representatives had begun a coordinated effort to address the losses.

The IPF was originally established to address settlement risks in the capital market. But it has assumed broader importance in Bangladesh following cases in which brokerage houses failed to safeguard investors' money, Masud said.

He stressed that preventing such incidents would require stronger technology-based surveillance rather than reliance on manual regulatory oversight.

Under the proposed digital framework, regulators would be able to regularly verify the funds held by brokerage houses in their bank accounts and CCAs. Such real-time monitoring could reduce the need for extensive direct intervention, he said.

Masud also called for further development of order management systems (OMS), saying the capital market needs stronger digital infrastructure to keep pace with a technology-driven financial system.

17,332 investors to get initial compensation

DSE Chairman Mominul Islam said five brokerage houses had taken investors' money or securities into their own accounts through various means and subsequently failed to return them.

"Investing in the capital market involves both gains and losses. Share prices rising and falling is a normal and internationally recognised feature of markets. But when investors suffer because of irregularities by a market intermediary, it seriously damages their confidence in the capital market," he said.

According to Mominul, the DSE has identified 17,967 affected investors. Of them, 17,332 will receive full payment of up to Tk5 lakh each from the IPF in the initial phase.

Masud said around 96% of affected investors have claims below Tk5 lakh, meaning the initial reimbursement will cover the vast majority of those affected.

Investors with claims above Tk5 lakh will be compensated in phases, he said, adding that authorities expect to eventually cover all affected investors through the IPF and other legal mechanisms.

Mominul said the DSE and other market stakeholders would continue efforts to recover the remaining amounts for investors whose claims are not fully covered initially.

He acknowledged the financial and emotional hardship caused by the brokerage failures and said restoring investor confidence would require coordinated efforts by the BSEC, the two stock exchanges, Central Depository Bangladesh Ltd (CDBL) and brokerage houses.

Determining the identities of the 17,967 affected investors, calculating their investments and establishing their final balances had been a challenging process, but the DSE management had completed the task, he said.

The IPF is partly financed by contributions from the brokerage community. A major source of the fund is brokers' trading commissions and 25% of the interest earned on CCA accounts, according to Mominul.

He said the DSE's compensation initiative would not have been possible without contributions from brokerage houses.

As the US monetary tightening cycle gets underway, Asian markets face a formidable headwind, yet the structural impact will diverge sharply by country and sector.

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh announced on September 16 that the US central bank was hiking its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points.
But even more importantly, the Fed signalled that further increases could be coming to help combat inflation that has been above the 2 percent target for over five years. Fed officials’ views, encapsulated in the so-called “dot plot”, indicate that one more rate hike is likely this year.

Markets, meanwhile, are expecting as many as three more rate hikes through the middle of next year.

This hawkish shift in monetary policy is expected to affect Asian economies and financial markets through several interconnected channels, including by spurring capital outflows, weakening domestic currencies and bumping up inflationary pressures.

But the effects should be far from uniform across the region. Higher US yields can draw global investors to dollar-denominated assets, leading to capital flight from emerging Asian markets.

During the first 15 years of this century, US Treasury yields plummeted to ultra-low levels, especially following the global financial crisis of 2008-09.

This triggered an avalanche of foreign capital into Asian equities.

However, that began to change during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, only to worsen following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, which compounded inflationary pressures and helped push rates higher.

But it was the onset of the US-Israeli war with Iran this year that truly saw foreign investment flows into Asia collapse.

Driven by US 10-year yields hovering at 4–5 percent, estimated monthly foreign-equity outflows reached a record $192 billion through September 25 — far eclipsing the previous 2025 peak of $45 billion, based on data from Asian stock exchanges.

Predictably, many Asian currencies weakened significantly against the dollar during this period.

Economies with current account deficits — such as India, Indonesia and the Philippines — were hit the hardest, as they rely heavily on foreign investments to finance their trade shortfalls.

Meanwhile, the currencies of economies running current account surpluses, like China and South Korea, have appreciated.

Obviously, other factors are at play here, especially in China, which doesn’t have a freely floating currency, but the pattern still holds.

All of this suggests that if US interest rates continue to rise, the currencies of deficit economies could continue to slide further. Depreciating local currencies typically fuel imported inflation.

In the current episode, this dynamic is amplifying many other domestic price pressures impacting Asian economies, including the global energy supply shock and the El Nino weather pattern.

Deficit countries in Asia with weak currencies are, unsurprisingly, seeing some of the highest levels of inflation.

At the end of August, inflation stood at 4.8 percent in India, 3.2 percent in Indonesia, and 6.1 percent in the Philippines. These countries have also already notched multiple rate hikes this year.

Since May, Bank Indonesia has hiked rates three times by 100 basis points cumulatively, while the Philippines’ central bank has done so three times since April for a combined increase of 75 basis points.
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China, Taiwan and Malaysia remain Asia’s notable inflation exceptions.

This reflects weak domestic demand in China, while Taiwan and Malaysia have enjoyed relatively stable exchange rates and tariff cuts, meaning pressure on their central banks to hike rates is virtually non-existent. Equity market valuations are also at risk across the region.

Over the past decade, three instances of rising yields in Asia have been accompanied by declines in forward price-to-earnings (PE) multiples in various Asian equity markets, as rising discount rates have mechanically dragged down valuations.

In the present episode, as the average 10-year yield in Asia rose from 3.4 percent in late October 2025 to 4.2 percent in late September, the 12-month forward PE multiple for the FactSet Asia Market Index declined from 16.7 times to 12.5 times.

This trend could clearly worsen if US rates rise more than markets currently expect. Different sectors should react differently, however.

“Long duration” equities – meaning companies whose value primarily resides far out in the future – obviously tend to see their valuations fall more due to the rising cost of capital.

Technology often falls in this category.

It’s unsurprising, therefore, that the PE multiples of the South Korean and Taiwanese markets – which are dominated by tech giants like Samsung, SK Hynix and TSMC – have declined the most during the latest US yield surge.

Soaring interest rates also jeopardize sectors dependent on high leverage or credit-driven demand.

This hits capital-intensive industries like real estate and utilities facing higher refinancing costs, alongside consumer discretionary stocks constrained by tighter household borrowing.

The most leveraged markets are the Philippines, Thailand and China, which had net debt-to-equity ratios in 2025 of 118 percent, 105 percent and 86 percent respectively, according to FactSet.

Banks and insurers, on the other hand, are usually the winners during global rate tightening cycles.

For banks, lending rates typically outpace deposit rates, boosting net interest margins.

That was evident in the 2022–23 cycle, when the average net interest margin for Hong Kong’s top 10 banks climbed from 1.41 percent to 1.65 percent.

Insurance companies, meanwhile, can keep investing their new premium income in progressively higher-yielding bonds as rates rise, typically boosting their profitability.

Markets with heavy financial weightings according to FactSet — led by Singapore at 47 percent of the market, Hong Kong at 32 percent, Malaysia at 31 percent, and India at 26 percent — stand to benefit the most from these dynamics.

As rising capital costs reshuffle Asia’s economic deck, a sharp line is being drawn between resilient, low-inflation Asian economies and those burdened by heavy deficits and spiralling inflation.

That line could deepen in the coming months.

Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) will refund up to Tk 500,000 in full to 17,332 investors who suffered losses from irregularities and embezzlement by brokerage houses, paying out of its Investors Protection Fund (IPF), DSE Chairman Mominul Islam said Monday.

Speaking at the DSE's inauguration ceremony for IPF disbursement, Mominul said investing in the capital market can bring both profit and loss, and share price fluctuations are natural, reports UNB.

"But when investors suffer because of irregularities by a market intermediary, it seriously damages their confidence in the market. Such incidents are not acceptable in any way," he said.

Mominul said several brokerage houses failed to discharge their responsibilities in the past. "Five of them diverted investors' money or shares into their own accounts and later failed to return them.”

According to the DSE, 17,967 investors are currently affected.

Of them, 17,332 will get their full money, up to Tk 500,000 each, from the IPF in this phase.

For investors who will not receive their full money at this stage, he said, initiatives will be taken to return it quickly. "The DSE and other market stakeholders will work on this through legal means."

Expressing regret to the affected investors, the DSE chairman said they had invested their hard-earned money in the market with great hope.

He apologised for the mental and financial hardship they endured because of the irregularities.

To prevent such incidents in the future, he urged all market stakeholders, including the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC), the two stock exchanges, the Central Depository Bangladesh Limited (CDBL) and brokerage houses, to work together. He expressed hope that collective efforts would fully restore investor confidence.

He said verifying the information of 17,967 investors and determining their investment records and final balances was a difficult task, which DSE management completed.

He expressed hope that the refund process would also be carried out properly.

Regarding the fund's sources, Mominul said the main sources are brokerage houses' trade commissions and 25 per cent of the interest earned on Customer Consolidated Accounts (CCA). "This DSE initiative would not have been possible without the contribution of brokerage houses."

Expressing hope that the positive trend in the country's capital market would strengthen further, he said building a strong and transparent market is a shared goal.

All stakeholders must work together to develop the capital market as a key pillar of the economy, he added

Phoenix Finance and Investments Ltd, sponsor of Phoenix Finance 1st Mutual Fund, plans to sell 20 lakh units of the closed-end fund after its unit price surged 263% in recent months.

The sponsor will sell the units from its 1.2 crore-unit holding at the prevailing market price through the Dhaka Stock Exchange by tomorrow (28 September), according to a disclosure.

The fund's unit price rose to Tk18.50 on 22 September from Tk5.10 on 8 April, before undergoing some correction. Following the announcement, the price fell 3.89% on Monday to close at Tk17.30.

At the latest market price, the planned sale would be worth around Tk3.46 crore. Phoenix Finance had earlier sold 10 lakh units of the fund in the last week of April, according to market data.

The planned sell-off comes despite weak fundamentals and the fund's decision to pay no dividend for the financial year ended 30 June 2026.

In August, the trustee committee declared no dividend for FY26. The fund reported earnings per unit (EPU) of Tk1.64, compared with a loss of Tk0.17 a year earlier. Its net asset value (NAV) per unit stood at Tk8.84 at market price and Tk12.13 at cost.

Net operating cash flow per unit (NOCFPU) remained negative at Tk0.47 in FY26, compared with negative Tk0.06 in FY25.

ICB Asset Management PLC is the fund's asset manager, while Investment Corporation of Bangladesh (ICB) serves as its trustee and custodian.

The second shipment of uranium fuel required to start Unit 2 of the Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant may arrive in Bangladesh in the first week of next month (October), Russian nuclear company Rosatom has assured the Ministry of Science and Technology.

TBS learned this from officials of the ministry and people involved in the project.
Initially, the shipment was scheduled to arrive on 24 September but was delayed after the Russian authorities failed to secure permission to use Pakistani airspace for the cargo flight.

A senior ministry official, speaking to TBS on condition of anonymity, said transportation of the fuel from Russia to Rooppur is the responsibility of the Russian authorities under the project agreement.

"Rosatom has informed us that they will arrange the fuel shipment as soon as possible. They have mentioned 1 October as a possible date, while the first week of October is the latest timeframe," he said.

"According to the schedule, the fuel was supposed to arrive on 24 September. We had made all necessary preparations at Hazrat Shahjalal International Airport. Later, Rosatom informed us that the flight could not operate because permission to use the airspace had not been obtained," he said.

Rosatom's Bangladesh office issued a statement today (28 September) that the delivery of nuclear fuel for Unit 2 is scheduled to begin in October and continue through December 2026, with the supplies to be completed by the end of December.

The fuel will be shipped in several flights, in accordance with the contract terms and the project schedule, according to it.

Following the delay, Science and Technology Minister Faqir Mahbub Anam told the media that a cargo aircraft carrying uranium for the Rooppur plant had been scheduled to arrive on 24 September.

"However, the flight was not permitted to use Pakistani airspace. As a result, the uranium did not reach Bangladesh as planned," he said, adding that said Bangladesh did not know the exact reason behind this.

Today, TBS also repeatedly tried to contact the minister and ministry Secretary Md Anwar Hossain for an update but could not reach them. Messages seeking information on the shipment also went unanswered.

Rooppur project director Dr Md Kabir Hossain told this newspaper, "I have no information about this. However, I saw the minister make statements about the issue in the media."

Bangladesh's first nuclear power plant is being built in Rooppur, Ishwardi, Pabna, with technical assistance from Rosatom and supervision by the Bangladesh Atomic Energy Commission.

The project has two VVER-1200 reactor units with a combined generation capacity of 2,400MW.

The first shipment of low-enriched uranium fuel for Unit 1 arrived from Russia on 28 September 2023. It contained 164 fuel assemblies manufactured at Rosatom's Novosibirsk Chemical Concentrates Plant.

The fuel was transported to Rooppur in radiation-shielded containers through a secured "green corridor", with the Bangladesh Army and law enforcement agencies providing security.

Bangladesh entered the nuclear power generation era in April this year when fuel loading began at Unit 1, paving the way for the country's first nuclear-generated electricity to be connected to the national grid.

Brent crude oil prices jumped more than 2% today (28 September) after US President Donald Trump rejected an Iranian peace proposal aimed at resolving the conflict and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Brent futures rose $2.60, or 2.49%, to $106.92 a barrel at 0803 GMT.

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude also climbed. WTI rose $2.08, or 2.25%, to $94.49 a barrel. The move came as markets reacted to uncertainty over the conflict and the future of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.

Why is oil price rising?

Trump's rejection of the peace proposal was a major reason for the rise in oil prices. Hamad Hussain, senior climate and commodities economist at Capital Economics, said oil prices appeared to have jumped after Trump rejected Iran's proposal, as reported by Reuters.

Iran had presented the peace proposal last week at the UN General Assembly in New York. Iran said the proposal had been sent to the US through Qatari mediators as part of efforts to find a diplomatic solution to the conflict. Trump said on Saturday that he had rejected Iran's plan. However, he also said on Sunday that he expected US negotiators to hold more talks with Iran during the week. Trump made the comments in a phone interview with Axios.

Strait of Hormuz oil supply

The Strait of Hormuz remains central to the oil market. The waterway is a major route for global oil shipments, so any disruption or uncertainty around its reopening can put upward pressure on crude prices.

Oil prices are rising despite some recovery in shipments through the Strait. Hussain said higher flows through Hormuz have reduced some of the pressure on oil prices, but the broader oil market is still facing a supply deficit. That means the market is still worried about a shortage of oil. Even though more barrels are moving through Hormuz, total supply has not fully caught up with demand, keeping the oil market in deficit. Capital Economics' Hussain said, according to Reuters.

Middle East oil exports rise

There is also a wider security risk in the Middle East. Yemen's Saudi-led coalition said early Saturday that it had intercepted two ballistic missiles and two drones launched by Iran-backed Houthis toward Saudi Arabia.

At the same time, Middle East oil exports have started recovering. Crude exports from major Middle Eastern producers reached 12.8 million barrels per day in September, the highest level since the war began in February. Preliminary Kpler data cited by Reuters showed this.

Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates helped drive the increase in exports. Their higher shipments pushed regional oil exports higher in September even as the conflict continued. Oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz also recovered. Shipments through the waterway were expected to reach about 7.4 million barrels per day in September, according to the preliminary Kpler data.

US diesel export ban fears

Saudi Arabia also changed its export route after attacks damaged its East-West pipeline. The country diverted some oil exports from the Red Sea port of Yanbu to its eastern Ras Tanura port. The oil market has also been dealing with uncertainty over US diesel exports. Brent gained only 0.4% last week, while WTI fell more than 7%, partly because investors were worried that the US could ban diesel exports to bring down record-high domestic diesel prices.

A US diesel export ban could also affect US oil production. Markets are concerned that limiting diesel exports could reduce refinery operations in the US, which could then affect demand for crude oil. Diesel prices in Europe have also surged. The premium of European low-sulphur gasoil over Brent crude futures reached a record of about $95 a barrel last week, showing how tight the global diesel market has become.

Global diesel shortage

The diesel shortage has been linked to a wider global supply problem. Prices have reached record levels, and Trump's support for a possible US diesel export ban has added another layer of uncertainty to the market.

Goldman Sachs warned that a US diesel export restriction could affect markets far beyond America. Europe and Latin America, especially Brazil and Mexico, are major destinations for US diesel exports, according to Reuters.

A US diesel shortage could push other countries to compete for available fuel. Goldman Sachs said Europe and Latin America could start buying more diesel from other suppliers, including countries such as India, which could spread the supply shock to Asia.

Goldman Sachs estimated that the impact could increase European diesel prices quickly. The bank estimated that each week of a US diesel export ban could raise European wholesale diesel prices by about $3 a barrel, or just under 2%.

What could happen to oil prices?

So, the latest Brent price rise is being driven by several risks at the same time: Trump's rejection of Iran's peace proposal, uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz, the continuing Middle East conflict, a global oil-market deficit and tight diesel supplies.

For now, the key question for oil markets is whether US-Iran talks can reduce the conflict and keep oil flowing normally through Hormuz. Trump has rejected Iran's current proposal but has also indicated that US negotiators could hold more talks this week.

A kilogram of animal feed that sold for around Tk68 in early August now costs up to Tk72.50, an increase of nearly 7%.

Feed manufacturers, however, say they are still incurring losses of more than Tk3 per kg as finished-feed prices have not fully reflected rising raw-material costs.

Industry insiders said feed prices had increased twice in a month as major raw materials became more expensive, forcing feed mills to absorb losses, farmers to cut production and consumers to pay more for eggs and chicken.

Over the past month, corn prices have increased by about 24%, de-oiled rice bran (DORB) by 27% and soybean meal by 20%, according to industry stakeholders.

Prices of other protein sources have also risen, while exchange-rate fluctuations have added pressure on imported ingredients.

Infograph: TBS
Infograph: TBS

Mosharraf Hossain Chowdhury, president of the Bangladesh Poultry Industries Association (BPIA) and managing director of Astha Feed Mill, said soybean prices had risen from around $430 per tonne in August to $530, an increase of more than 20%.

He said feed prices were increased by Tk2 per kg in late August following requests from small feed millers, while a further Tk2.50 increase was made in mid-September to reduce losses faced by small and medium-sized feed mills.

"There is no alternative to increasing feed prices when the price of soybean rises so sharply. Even after increasing prices twice, we are still losing more than Tk3 per kg," he said.

The price of corn with 13% moisture has risen to Tk38.80 per kg from Tk31.30 a month ago. DORB has increased from Tk26 to Tk33 per kg, while rice bran containing 16% oil has risen from Tk33 to Tk39. Mustard oilcake has increased from Tk36.50 to Tk39.70.

ATM Habibur Rahman, chief business officer of Akij Feed Mills, said corn prices had risen particularly sharply.

"During March-April-May, corn was available at Tk28-29 per kg. But in June, July and August, the price increased to Tk38-40," he said.

International corn prices have also risen from around $235-240 per tonne to nearly $290, he added.

According to Habibur, raw materials account for around 80-85% of the total cost of producing quality feed.

"When the prices of corn, soybean meal, rice bran and DORB rise in the local or international market, it becomes difficult for feed mills to sell feed at the previous price," he said.

He said a Tk4.50 increase in the price of feed per kg should raise the price of chicken by no more than Tk6 per kg.

However, supply-chain disruptions are a major reason behind the volatility in the market.

He also cited gas and electricity shortages as additional cost pressures, saying disruptions were raising production costs and reducing demand.

Habibur further said feed prices have a relatively limited impact on the prices of chicken and eggs.

Small farms cut production

Rising feed costs are forcing farmers to reduce production, with feed accounting for a major share of poultry farming expenses.

Amir Hossain, a broiler farmer in Kutbari village of Mawna, Gazipur, used to buy around 30 sacks of feed a month. He has reduced this to 28 sacks and cut the number of chickens on his farm.

"Prices of different types of animal feed have increased by Tk2-3 per kg over the past week. The price of a 50kg sack of feed has increased by as much as Tk150," he said.

A 50kg sack of rice bran has risen by Tk500 to Tk1,800, while corn has increased from Tk25 to Tk37 per kg. A 50kg sack of poultry feed now costs as much as Tk3,675.

"When feed prices rise, our costs increase, but we do not get a corresponding increase in chicken prices. So we have to reduce feeding. We have also reduced the purchase of chicks because we fear the birds will gain less weight," Amir said.

The rising costs have also triggered protests by farmers in Rajshahi, Gazipur, Pabna, Kishoreganj, Cumilla, Narsingdi, Dhaka, Kushtia and Mymensingh since early June.

Farmers have demanded lower feed prices, reduced taxes and duties on imported raw materials, and fair prices for eggs and chickens.

Pabna farmer Jibon Islam said feed accounts for around 80% of production costs for some farmers.

"It is becoming increasingly difficult for farmers to survive by purchasing feed at higher prices. Load-shedding has also caused deaths of chicks, increasing our losses," he said.

Russell Pradhan, general secretary of the Bangladesh Marginal Poultry Farmers Council, said supplies of locally produced DORB and rice bran should first be secured for domestic demand.

"If necessary, VAT, taxes and duties on imported raw materials should be reduced. Market monitoring should also be strengthened to prevent artificial shortages," he said.

State Minister for Fisheries and Livestock Sultan Salahuddin Tuku said the government was working to reduce the cost of feed and other production inputs.

"Reducing production costs is essential if we want to ensure safe and affordable poultry products for people," he said.

Pressure reaches consumers

The rise in feed prices is also pushing up consumer prices as higher production costs and lower farm output put pressure on egg and chicken supplies.

In Dhaka markets on Saturday, farm eggs were selling at around Tk150 per dozen and broiler chicken at Tk190-200 per kg.

Before August, broiler chicken sold for Tk170-180 per kg and farm eggs for Tk130-140 per dozen. Prices rose at the beginning of August and have not returned to those levels.

Mohammad Liton of Ma Rokea Boiler House at Karwan Bazar said floods, excessive rainfall and heat had caused deaths of laying hens and broilers at many farms over the past five or six months.

"Many farmers did not restart production. Recent load-shedding has also reduced poultry farming. These factors have contributed to higher egg and chicken prices," he said.

Pubali Bank, one of the largest private commercial lenders, has emerged as a potential interested party in Standard Chartered Bank Bangladesh's retail banking business, alongside BRAC Bank and City Bank, as the British lender reportedly considers exiting retail banking to focus on corporate and institutional banking.

Standard Chartered has made preliminary approaches to potential buyers, although no deal structure or timeline has been finalised, according to people familiar with the matter.

If a formal sale or transfer process begins, the portfolio would be subject to valuation, audit, due diligence, and regulatory approval.

Standard Chartered's retail and CMSME loan portfolio stood at around Tk8,479 crore at the end of 2025, while retail deposits were around Tk8,000 crore, according to the bank's financial information.

Why Pubali is being considered

Pubali Bank has been expanding its retail banking operations beyond traditional branch-based services, with greater emphasis on retail loans, cards, digital banking, QR payments and self-service banking.

The bank's Managing Director and CEO Mohammad Ali has also identified retail banking as one of its key areas of future growth.

StanChart Bangladesh plans to close retail banking operation
Pubali currently has a retail loan portfolio of around Tk8,000 crore, accounting for more than 10% of its total loans. Its retail products include personal, home, car and nano loans.

Standard Chartered's retail business has a significant base of priority and high-value customers, including salary-account holders working for multinational and large corporate organisations, as well as longstanding retail banking customers.

Integrating such a portfolio with Pubali's existing retail operations could expand the bank's customer base in higher-value segments, according to a senior Pubali Bank executive.

Financial capacity

Pubali's balance sheet and financial indicators would also be relevant in assessing its ability to acquire a sizeable retail portfolio.

According to its published financial information for 2025, the bank had total assets of around Tk118,014 crore, deposits of Tk89,519 crore and loans and advances of about Tk71,141 crore.

The bank's profit after tax stood at around Tk1,080 crore in 2025, while its return on equity was 15.51%. Its non-performing loan ratio was 2.20% at the end of the year.

Pubali recorded around Tk685 crore in consolidated profit in the first six months of 2026.

What does StanChart's retail banking exit mean for Bangladesh?
These figures indicate the scale of Pubali's balance sheet relative to the retail portfolio under discussion. However, any acquisition would depend on the valuation, transaction structure, funding requirements and regulatory approvals.

Branch network and digital services

Pubali's nationwide branch network is another factor that could be relevant to a potential transaction.

Standard Chartered has a comparatively limited physical footprint in Bangladesh, with 18 branches, according to published information.

Pubali, in contrast, operates more than 500 branches and over 280 sub-branches across the country. The bank also inaugurated its 1,000th ATM/CRM booth in 2026.

A combination of Standard Chartered's largely urban and premium customer base with Pubali's broader physical network could expand access to branches, sub-branches and ATM/CRM facilities.

Pubali has also been investing in digital banking through its PI Banking platform, which offers services including NPSB, BEFTN, RTGS, transfers to mobile financial services, bill payments, credit card services and Bangla QR payments.

The PI Digital Platform had around 528,000 active users at the end of 2025 and processed more than 18.6 million transactions during the year.

Any transfer of Standard Chartered's retail business would involve more than loans and deposits. Customer accounts, cards, payment channels, digital banking services and customer data would also have to be migrated while ensuring continuity of service.

At this stage, however, no transaction involving Pubali Bank has been finalised.

In the coming weeks, biscuits and spices may start arriving in slightly smaller packets, while dealers and retailers of atta, maida and suji may receive lower commissions on each packet sold.

Some companies may also tweak their recipes. Liquid soap and detergents, for example, could contain less active material while maintaining product performance. Inside factory premises, manufacturers may also increasingly turn to cheaper solar power and try to get more from their existing workforces.

All the changes are aimed at keeping retail prices unchanged even though the latest fuel price hike has raised production and transport costs. Local fast-moving consumer goods companies say they simply cannot pass on those costs to consumers as high inflation continues to erode purchasing power for years.

In the third week of September, the latest round of fuel price adjustments increased prices of diesel, petrol and octane by Tk 20 a litre, citing volatile global market rates and rising subsidies. The increase pushed up the prices of almost everything, from fresh vegetables, poultry and meat to basic grocery items.

Amid fuel and energy shocks that have raised overall business costs by around 30 percent in recent years, local conglomerates say they are absorbing the higher costs rather than raising product prices.

Ahsan Khan Chowdhury, chairman of industrial conglomerate Pran-RFL Group, said the company has not increased product prices after the fuel price hike. Instead, Pran is making gradual cost adjustments to cope with it.

He said local consumers tend to buy according to fixed price points. People have historically bought products at denominations such as Tk 1, Tk 2, Tk 5 and now Tk 10. Increasing the price of a product from Tk 5 to Tk 6 would be difficult because Tk 6 is not a convenient or commonly used price point in the market.

“So, we may have to reduce costs from certain areas. This could be gradually reducing packaging sizes or product weights,” said the chairman of Pran-RFL, the largest agro processor in Bangladesh.

Ahsan described this as a means of survival for the business.

He also said that, for some small products, supplying them in bulk and offering them as loose products can help companies save on packaging costs, while consumers can also save money if they are willing to accept it.

Super shop outlets such as Shwapno and Meena Bazar also said companies have not raised retail prices after the fuel price hike. Visits to a number of grocery stores in Dhaka found no supply shortages or delays in the availability of essential consumer products following the fuel shock too.

Neaz Morshed, assistant director of Category Management at Shwapno, said there had been no price revisions since the latest fuel price hike.

Meanwhile, Meghna Group of Industries, another major industrial conglomerate, said it has not increased product prices despite the fuel hike and higher transport costs. It has no plans to raise prices in the immediate future either.

Meghna Group Chairman Mostafa Kamal said higher vehicle fares and transport costs will affect businesses and consumers. The cost of sending a truck from Dhaka to Dinajpur, for example, has increased from Tk 20,000 to Tk 30,000.

With transport costs rising across shipments, there is hardly any margin left, he said.

“At some point, the situation may force us to reduce our profit margins. Retailers may face margin cuts and get less promotional gifts from us,” Mostafa added.

Companies pay commissions to dealers, wholesalers and retailers from their revenue.

Like Pran and Meghna, ACI Consumer Brands, which markets food items under the ACI Pure brand, said manufacturers could not increase prices overnight as they had to consider consumer behaviour and purchasing capacity.

“Price points are very sensitive. When prices increase suddenly, consumers tend to dislike the move and may avoid purchasing the products. This ultimately affects the business,” said Md Quamrul Hassan, executive director and chief operating officer of ACI Consumer Brands.

Quamrul said their profit margins have been under pressure for the past two years because of rising utility costs, while the latest fuel hike has added to packaging costs.

Luthful Kabir Shaheen, director of business development at City Group, another large local conglomerate, said the company is trying to absorb market pressures, support retailers and minimise the impact on consumers.

RN Paul, managing director of RFL, said the company’s profit margin has fallen from 3 percent to around 1 percent recently. “We sacrifice that 2 percent, but we cannot raise prices because consumers are not in a position to absorb the increase,” he said.

He said RFL has responded by cutting expenses, installing solar power and improving labour productivity.

Against this backdrop, business growth is likely to face greater pressure in the coming years.

“Suppose our business grows 10 percent, but achieving even 3 percent growth in profit now becomes a struggle,” Md Parvez Saiful Islam, CEO of Square Food & Beverage Ltd, said.

“We are now working hard just to maintain last year’s profitability,” he said.

Meanwhile, RFL’s Paul said he expects the company to grow by only 5 percent this year, compared with 15 percent previously.