Agencies are groping in the dark in executing Family Card recipes as a huge sum is being handed out under this government's flagship social-protection programme sans designating real recipients amid data dearth, sources say.

This is also the ruling BNP's key electoral pledge that went for rapid execution through disbursing cash assistance to insolvent families across Bangladesh after its election to power.

To bridge the data gaps, the Department of Social Services (DSS) has proposed conducting a nationwide census within three months by recruiting more than 60,000 enumerators to identify eligible beneficiaries of the Family Card charity.

Economists and government officials, however, have questioned the feasibility of the proposal, arguing that completing a nationwide census within such a short timeframe is unrealistic, particularly as the DSS lacks experienced personnel, institutional capacity to conduct a census or large-scale survey, and the legal mandate to undertake such an exercise.

A senior official at Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) has said any public or private agency could conduct surveys only in areas where the BBS does not already have its reach.

The government has allocated Tk145.0 billion under the Annual Development Programme (ADP) for the current fiscal year to provide Family Card to 4.1 million families, with each beneficiary family set to receive Tk 2,500 per month.

The DSS has proposed revising the ongoing 'Strengthening Social Protection for Improved Resilience, Inclusion and Targeting' project to implement the Family Card programme, incorporating the proposed census and several other components.

The project documents reveal that the pilot phase of the Family Card programme, launched in March this year, has been implemented successfully over the past few months, and the government planned to formally roll out the programme nationwide from July 1st.

The documents also state that the Cabinet Committee assigned the Ministry of Social Welfare for conducting the census and data-entry activities for the programme.

Since proposed in Parliament, 17 years have elapsed but a poverty database remains elusive.

While presenting the national budget in Parliament, then finance minister Abul Maal Abdul Muhith pledged to prepare a comprehensive database of hardcore poor, vulnerable elderly citizens, and persons with disabilities to ensure targeted government assistance.

In the following year's budget speech, he said the government had already started developing a database of social-safety-net beneficiaries to improve coordination among social-service programmes.

However, even after 17 years, Bangladesh has yet to establish an effective and functional poverty database.

The BBS's Tk7.27-billion project fails to deliver. Following the commitment, the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) initiated a project in 2013 to develop the National Household Database (NHD) with an estimated cost of Tk3.29 billion, aiming to identify beneficiaries of social-safety-net programmes through a database of 35 million households.

The project, originally scheduled for completion in 2017, was finally completed in 2022 after costs surged to Tk7.27 billion. However, the database remains inaccessible due to the failure to develop a Management Information System (MIS).

In a revised project proposal in 2024, BBS acknowledged that the poverty database remained unusable due to the absence of an MIS and application-programming interface (API).

Database gap fuels targeting failures in social-safety-net delivery. The lack of a comprehensive database has contributed to persistent targeting failures in social-safety-net programmes, with inclusion and exclusion errors remaining high, according to the social-security budget report for the current fiscal year.

Evidence shows that social transfers are still not reaching the poorest effectively. Only about half of poor households received social assistance in 2022, while around 22 per cent of total social benefits went to the richest 20 per cent of households, highlighting continued exclusion, inclusion errors and leakages in programme delivery.

Economist Prof Mustafizur Rahman, Distinguished Fellow at the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), terms unfortunate the absence of a comprehensive database of poor people even after so many years.

He has said, "The lack of such a database results in misallocation of funds, with a significant share of benefits going to affluent groups while many poor people remain excluded."

He suggests creating a reliable database through a quality survey or census before launching the Family Card programme, noting that such exercises are usually conducted by the BBS and the DSS's capacity in this area remains untested. He also recommends involving all relevant stakeholders in the census process.

Shah Mohammad Mahboob, Director-General at the DSS, has said that although BBS conducts various surveys, the data generated from those surveys would not be sufficient to accurately identify beneficiaries for the programme.

He said the ministry was, therefore, was given the responsibility of conducting a census under the DSR framework. To carry out the exercise, a nationwide workforce will be recruited and monitoring teams will be formed.

"The census and beneficiary-selection process will be completed within three months by covering all households across the country," he said.

Md Firoz Sarker, secretary of the Statistics and Informatics Division, has said the DSS had not yet shared any plan to conduct a survey or census. "Instead, the department had shared a plan to conduct a Proxy Means Test (PMT) to assess people's socioeconomic condition using proxy indicators that reflect income levels."

He has expressed the hope the DSS would seek support from the BBS if it proceeds with any census or survey in the future.

The overseas presence of Bangladesh's state-owned banks has suffered another setback, as four branches of Janata Bank in the United Arab Emirates face possible closure – four years after Sonali Bank's licence was cancelled in the United Kingdom.

The UAE central bank imposed restrictions on Janata Bank's operations over a capital shortfall and ordered the bank to prepare for a wind-down of its existing operations unless the deficit is addressed.

Under Central Bank of the UAE (CBUAE) regulations, Janata Bank's UAE operations are required to maintain paid-up capital of 400 million dirhams. The current paid-up capital is 100 million dirhams, leaving a shortfall of 300 million dirhams, or nearly Tk1,000 crore.

The UAE central bank has restricted withdrawals from the Janata Bank branches' accounts held with it, stopped them from opening new customer accounts and instructed them to prepare to gradually wind down existing operations.
According to Janata Bank officials, the measures were taken because the bank failed to maintain the minimum paid-up capital required under UAE banking regulations and due to concerns over the bank's overall financial condition in Bangladesh.

On 8 July, CBUAE Assistant Governor Ahmed Saeed Al Qamzi wrote to Janata Bank's UAE Chief Executive Officer Mohammad Kamruzzaman, directing him to inform the bank's board of directors and quickly communicate its decision.

The UAE central bank also informed Janata Bank Managing Director Mazibur Rahman and Bangladesh Bank's Off-site Supervision Department of its decision on 9 July.

The bank, in a board meeting on 14 July, decided that an emergency meeting involving the Financial Institutions Division, the Bangladesh Bank, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the bank's chairman and managing director was needed to address the situation.

Accordingly, the MD wrote to the secretary of the Financial Institutions Division on the same day requesting such a meeting.

Speaking to TBS on Saturday, Mazibur said that since 2016, all profits earned by the UAE branches have been retained there and added to paid-up capital – from 75 million dirhams to 100 million dirhams.

He said the bank had proposed increasing its paid-up capital in phases over three years.

Mazibur said that if the UAE central bank does not accept the proposal, they will try to increase the paid-up capital with government assistance.

Concerns over Janata's capital position

In its letter, the CBUAE said the regulatory measures had been taken because of concerns over Janata Bank's capital position and its failure to comply with minimum capital requirements.

It said withdrawals from the bank's accounts with the UAE central bank would be approved only in limited amounts to meet depositors' claims. It also instructed the bank to stop accepting new customers and focus on settling existing liabilities and business.

In a separate letter sent to the bank's head office on 9 July, UAE CEO Kamruzzaman sought guidance from the board on the next course of action.

Responding to concerns raised by the UAE central bank over Janata Bank's financial condition, Mazibur cited the country's banking sector's broader challenges, with more than 20% of loans nationwide classified as defaulted.

He said although around 70% of Janata Bank's loans had become defaulted, it continues to operate without relying on emergency borrowing.

In a separate letter dated 22 April, CBUAE's Qamzi pointed out the bank's audited 2024 financial statements that showed the capital of Janata's head office had also fallen below the minimum equivalent of 2 billion dirhams required under UAE regulations.

According to Bangladesh Bank data, Janata Bank's capital deficit stood at Tk52,891 crore at the end of December 2024. At the end of March this year, its provision shortfall was Tk50,131 crore, while defaulted loans totalled Tk74,996 crore, representing 73.94% of its outstanding loans.

Future of UAE branches uncertain

Janata Bank began operations in the United Arab Emirates in October 1976 with an initial paid-up capital of 12.7 million dirhams. It now operates four branches in Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Sharjah and Al Ain.

The branches primarily facilitate remittance services for Bangladeshi expatriates and provide banking services to non-resident Bangladeshis. They also handle import and export letters of credit, trade finance, guarantees, deposits and commercial lending.

According to bank documents, the UAE operations earned a profit of 32 million dirhams up to 2020, of which 25 million dirhams was added to paid-up capital.

A senior Bangladesh Bank official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said if the government does not provide the required capital, any closure of the UAE branches would have to follow the UAE central bank's regulations, taking into account the branches' paid-up capital, deposits and other liabilities.

He said such a process would also involve high costs for the bank.

Sonali Bank's trouble in UK

Sonali Bank began its UK operations in 1999 with the registration of Sonali Trade & Finance (UK) Ltd in London. In December 2001, it was renamed Sonali Bank (UK) Ltd and started operating as a full-fledged bank, providing accounts, remittance, and trade finance services to expatriate Bangladeshis and business clients.

Though initially popular, the bank soon faced a series of regulatory challenges. In 2016, the UK's Financial Conduct Authority fined it for weaknesses in anti-money laundering systems, while financial losses and irregularities also mounted.

Under increasing regulatory pressure, the UK's Prudential Regulation Authority cancelled the bank's licence in August 2022.

Following the licence loss, the entity was restructured and renamed Sonali Bangladesh (UK) Ltd on the same day, taking over the liabilities of the former company. The new entity no longer offers retail banking; instead, it focuses on trade finance, correspondent banking, and institutional transactions.

Sonali Bank later established an exchange house named Sonali Pay (UK) Limited and a non-banking financial institution named Sonali Bangladesh (UK) Limited in London. However, neither of these newly created entities is performing well, with both consistently running at a loss and requiring capital injections from Bangladesh to survive, according to Sonali Bank officials.

Performance of other banks' overseas operations

While state-owned Agrani Bank's exchange houses in Singapore and Malaysia currently play a vital role in remittance inflows, their internal governance and management have plunged into a severe crisis due to widespread financial irregularities and corruption uncovered in recent years.

An internal audit conducted by Agrani Bank, covering the period from 1 July 2017 to 31 December 2024, revealed that the officials in charge of these two entities engaged in numerous activities that were "completely contrary to banking policies, financial discipline, and good governance" – many of which amount to direct criminal offences.

According to Bangladesh Bank's latest Financial Stability Report 2024, the combined net profit of overseas branches and exchange houses of Bangladeshi banks dropped to $5.96 million in 2024, representing a 36.56% decline from the $9.40 million recorded in 2023.

Over the same period, the combined return on assets for these branches fell from 1.74% to 1.15%.

The report also noted that Sonali Bank and Janata Bank, alongside the private-sector AB Bank, operate a total of seven full-fledged foreign branches across the UAE and India. Furthermore, another 21 Bangladeshi banks are providing remittance collection services overseas through 21 dedicated exchange houses.

President Donald Trump unveiled 50% tariffs on a wide range of imports from Canada on Monday in response to what the US administration called its discriminatory treatment of American-made cars, alcohol and dairy goods, threatening a new front in a global trade war.

In slapping import taxes on goods ranging from wine to cement and ice hockey gear, Trump invoked Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930, which permits a president to impose punitive tariffs of up to 50% against trading partners deemed to have discriminated against US goods. That marked the law's first known usage in nearly a century of existence.

The new tariffs, set to take effect in 30 days, would also apply to dairy products, swimming pools, furniture, fishing rods, seeds, clothing and wigs, among other items.

"While the Administration continues to secure fair and reciprocal trade deals with our trading partners, Canada, unlike other partners and allies, continues to retaliate against the United States for its efforts to rebalance trade and protect US industry in national-security sensitive sectors," US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said in a statement.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said in a statement that his government has made comprehensive proposals to resolve trade disputes with Washington, asserting that Trump's past tariffs violated the North American trade pact.

"This trade dispute has raised costs for families, particularly in the US," he said. "Canada stands ready to engage intensively to address outstanding issues with the US to the mutual benefit of our citizens."

The Trump administration has long complained that Canada and China implemented retaliatory measures in response to the barrage of tariffs Trump has tried to impose since returning to the White House last year.

Greer has pointedly left Canada out of negotiations under way with Mexico on changes the US wants in the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement on trade. He holds bilateral talks on USMCA in Mexico City this week.

When Trump and Carney met at the Fifa World Cup Final in New Jersey on Sunday, Trump demanded that Carney take action to contain wildfires that have sent smoke billowing across swathes of the US. The US president last week threatened to add the "incalculable cost" of dealing with the pollution to existing tariffs on Canadian goods.

First usage

The Tariff Act of 1930 and its Section 338 are better known for massive US tariff increases and subsequent retaliation that economic historians say worsened the Great Depression of the 1930s.

Section 338 was intended to ensure countries apply tariffs equally and don't give preferential rates to some countries at the expense of US exports, said John Veroneau, a US trade official in the President George W. Bush administration who has extensively researched the statute.

He said that some presidents, including Franklin D. Roosevelt, considered imposing tariffs under Section 338, but no record could be found of any president taking such action until Trump's proclamations on Monday.

"It is ironic, to say the least, to use this authority to impose tariffs to retaliate against tariffs that were imposed in response to actions taken by the US," said Veroneau, senior counsel with the Covington and Burling law firm.

"These tariffs may be lawful under Section 338, but they at a minimum violate the spirit of Section 338, which was to create a world where countries apply the same tariffs on the same goods to all countries," he said, adding Trump has moved away from this principle "in a maximalist way."

After World War Two, major countries created the "most-favoured-nation" tariff system through the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade to try to prevent a return to the pre-war "beggar-thy-neighbour" economic policies marked by competitive trade restrictions and currency devaluations.

Trump's new levies are set to take effect on 19 August and apply regardless of whether goods qualify for tariff exemptions under USMCA, although Trump exempted a range of key goods including energy, potash, fish, critical minerals and products already covered by Section 232 tariffs.

Among grounds for the tariffs, the White House cited Canada's "protectionist" dairy supply management system as well as tariffs and quotas on cars imported to Canada from the US but not from other countries. Carney said that Canada "as is its right, merely matched" US tariffs on the auto sector that were in violation of the USMCA.

Washington also highlighted that most Canadian provinces have halted the sale of US alcohol, which they did in response to prior US tariffs.

The White House said Canadian imports of US motor vehicles dropped by 22% and of US alcoholic beverages by 81% over the past year.

Diamond Isinger, a former senior adviser to ex-Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on US-Canada relations, said Carney would have limited ability to compel provinces to start selling American alcohol again.

"Unless there are some sort of extraordinary measures invoked here, the premiers of those provinces are the ones who decide whether to restock alcohol," Isinger said.

The stock market regulator has proposed making it easier for investors to borrow money to buy shares, believing the move could increase trading and improve market liquidity.

However, market experts say that easier access to borrowing could encourage riskier investing and make the market more vulnerable to sharp swings later.

With the proposals, the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) published draft amendments to the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (Margin) Rules last week and invited comments from stakeholders.

A margin loan is money borrowed from a broker or merchant bank to buy shares. Investors pay part of the purchase price from their own funds and borrow the rest, allowing them to buy more shares than they otherwise could.

Among the seven major changes proposed by the BSEC, one of the most significant is expanding margin loans to more B-category companies.

B-category companies generally pay lower dividends than A-category companies and are considered riskier investments.

Under the current rules, investors can obtain margin loans only to buy shares of B-category companies that pay at least a 5 percent dividend. The draft rules would remove that requirement, allowing investors to borrow to buy shares even if those companies pay less than a 5 percent dividend.

According to market experts, margin loans are generally intended for relatively stronger shares because borrowing magnifies both gains and losses. Extending margin finance to weaker companies could encourage speculation and increase risks for both investors and lenders.

Faruq Ahmed Siddiqi, a former chairman of the BSEC, said companies that pay very low dividends or are fundamentally weak should not be eligible for margin loans.

“Instead, the level of dividend payment could be incorporated as a criterion for determining the margin loan ratio,” he said.

In other words, companies that pay lower dividends should qualify for lower margin financing. There should be some form of restriction on companies with poor dividend records.

Saiful Islam, president of the DSE Brokers Association of Bangladesh (DBA), said, “Under the proposed rules, even a company that pays only a 0.5 percent dividend would be eligible for margin lending; that should not happen.”

“While it is true that lenders will assess the risks before providing loans, such a provision should not exist in the first place. The proposal suggests that margin lending may be made more flexible,” he said.

The draft amendments also propose lowering the minimum investment required to qualify for a margin loan.

At present, investors must hold at least Tk 5 lakh worth of shares in their BO accounts for at least one year before they become eligible for margin finance. The proposed rules would reduce the threshold to Tk 3 lakh, allowing more investors to qualify.

The BSEC also wants brokers and other intermediaries to lend more.

At present, they can provide margin loans worth up to three times their core capital or net worth, whichever is higher. Under the proposed rules, that limit would rise to five times.

For example, a lender with Tk 100 in core capital can currently lend up to Tk 300. The proposed rules would allow it to lend up to Tk 500.

The draft amendments also seek to remove the minimum free-float requirement for companies whose shares qualify for margin loans.

Free float refers to the shares that are available for public trading. It excludes shares held by founders, sponsors and other long-term owners that are not normally traded.

Currently, a company must have at least Tk 50 crore in free-float market capitalisation for its shares to qualify for margin lending. The proposed rules would remove that requirement.

The BSEC has also proposed increasing the maximum exposure to a single stock to 20 percent from 15 percent. This would allow brokers to concentrate a larger share of their lending in one company.

Another proposed change would revise maintenance margin requirements. A margin call would be triggered when the value of an investor’s portfolio falls below 70 percent, compared with the current 75 percent threshold.

The compulsory forced-sale threshold would remain unchanged at 50 percent.

Former BSEC chairman Faruq said the regulator may be relaxing margin lending rules to support the capital market. One argument in favour of such a move is that the risks associated with margin lending should be borne by the lender and the borrower.

“However, this assumption holds true only if investors behave rationally.”

Given the investment behaviour typically observed in Bangladesh’s stock market, he said regulators need to exercise great caution when setting margin lending requirements.

“It is better for the rules to remain relatively stringent in the interest of investors.”

During a rising market, many investors become eager to borrow while intermediaries are equally willing to extend credit. But when the market corrects, excessive margin lending can create significant risks, he added.

DBA President Saiful said expanding the market through margin lending is not sustainable. Instead, it could create significant risks.

“In a market where a large number of companies are underperforming, using leverage to inflate the market would be suicidal. Greater use of leverage may be appropriate when the market is dominated by institutional investors, but in a retail-driven market, excessive reliance on margin loans is not desirable.”

Moreover, for the market to grow in a sustainable manner, the mutual fund industry needs to become much larger, he added.

The draft amendments also revise the valuation criteria for companies eligible for margin loans.

For most companies, the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio must remain below 30. For banks and other financial institutions, lenders would instead use the price-to-book (P/B) ratio because book value is generally considered a more appropriate measure for financial companies.

As per the proposal, banks and financial institutions with a P/B ratio above 3 would not qualify for margin lending. For insurance companies, the limit would be 1.

Md Sayeed Ahmed, a veteran chartered accountant and former executive director of the Financial Reporting Council, said using the price-to-book ratio as the primary or sole valuation criterion for financial sector securities, while relying on earnings-based measures for other sectors, appears “inconsistent” with well-established valuation principles.

He said a going concern business derives its economic value primarily from its expected future earnings and cash-generating capacity rather than merely from the historical carrying value of its net assets.

Book value is fundamentally an accounting measure representing historical net assets after applying accounting standards. It does not necessarily reflect a company’s future profitability, competitive strength, franchise value, management quality, business model, technological capability, or long-term growth prospects, he added.

Bangladeshi expatriates living in different countries across the world remitted US$1.94 billion in the first 19 days of July, recording a robust 27.6 per cent growth compared to the corresponding period of the previous year, according to the latest data of Bangladesh Bank.

During the same period last year, the country received $1.52 billion in remittance inflows.

On July 19 alone, expatriates sent home $140 million.

The central bank also revised the remittance inflow figure for the three-day period between July 16 and July 18 to $166 million.

The strong growth in remittance inflows at the beginning of the fiscal year 2026-27 provides a substantial boost for the country's foreign exchange reserves and overall macroeconomic stability.

The country's premier bourse ended on a largely flat note yesterday as buying support for sector-specific large-cap scrips provided a necessary cushion against a persistent sell-off in the insurance sector.

The benchmark DSEX index of the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) inched up marginally to settle at 5,857 points, effectively pausing a broader market correction that had emerged in recent sessions.

However, the blue-chip DS30 index edged down slightly to 2,208 points, reflecting a selective approach by investors who preferred to stay on the sidelines ahead of potential regulatory shifts.

The day's trading session was characterised by significant intraday volatility. Market analysts from EBL Securities noted that the indices opened under pressure but managed to stabilise as opportunistic investors took positions in fundamentally strong large-cap stocks. The broader sentiment, however, remains watchful as market participants await the finalisation of proposed revisions to margin lending rules. This cautious stance was further compounded by renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which weighed on the risk appetite of institutional and high-net-worth investors.

Sheltech Brokerage Limited observed that while selling pressure dragged the benchmark index to an intraday low of 5,855 points during the morning hours, a recovery emerged from the mid-session onwards. This turnaround was primarily driven by selective buying in banking stocks, fueled by positive expectations surrounding the upcoming half-year earnings season. Additionally, investors are calculating potential benefits for certain sectors under the draft margin rule amendments currently being reviewed by the securities regulator.

On the sectoral front, returns remained mixed with a stark contrast between performers and laggards. The Service and Real Estate sector emerged as the top gainer, posting a 2.28% return.

Conversely, the Insurance sector was the day's worst underperformer, shedding 2.31% of its value.

Market insiders attributed the heavy selling in insurance scrips to growing fears among investors that many of these companies might be excluded from margin loan eligibility under the new proposed price-to-book value criteria.

Despite the price fall, turnover remained concentrated in textiles, pharmaceuticals, and insurance, which collectively accounted for nearly half of the day's total trading volume.

Market participation saw a 10% decline compared to the previous session, with total turnover settling at Tk966 crore.

The market breadth also remained negative, as 182 issues declined against 148 that managed to advance, while 58 scrips remained unchanged on the DSE floor.

Among individual performers, mutual funds like LR Global Mutual Fund One and MBL First Mutual Fund hit the upper limit of the circuit breaker, while Sonargaon Textile and NCCBL Mutual Fund-1 also featured prominently on the gainers' list.

On the flip side, the losers' chart was dominated by insurance firms, including Provati, Karnaphuli, Takaful, and United Insurance.

The bearish sentiment in specific sectors was also reflected at the Chittagong Stock Exchange (CSE), where the Selective Categories' Index (CSCX) ended 23 points lower at 9,615, and the All Share Price Index (CASPI) dipped by 10 points to settle at 15,738.

Bangladesh’s industrial output fell in the January-March quarter of fiscal year 2025-26, the first such decline since the pandemic-hit fourth quarter of FY20, as gas and electricity shortages, weak export demand and high borrowing costs squeezed factories.

Industrial production contracted 0.28 percent in the third quarter of FY26, reversing 3.33 percent growth in the same period a year earlier, provisional data published yesterday by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) showed.

Output had slumped 14.94 percent in the April-June quarter of FY20 during the nationwide Covid lockdown, then stayed positive through subsequent quarters until this latest contraction.

Economists attributed the latest decline to prolonged uncertainty that has discouraged businesses from investing and expanding.

Md Deen Islam, a professor of economics at the University of Dhaka, said the contraction reflects deep-rooted structural weaknesses rather than a temporary dip.

“A negative industrial growth rate is a clear signal that production capacity is being constrained by supply-side bottlenecks,” he said.

“Persistent shortages of gas and electricity have significantly reduced factory utilisation, while high borrowing costs and weak private investment have further suppressed industrial activity.”

Towfiqul Islam Khan, additional research director at the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), said the fall in manufacturing output was likely linked to declining exports.

The industrial downturn dragged overall GDP growth down to 2.22 percent in the January-March quarter, from 4.53 percent a year earlier.

Agriculture and services also lost momentum. BBS data shows that agriculture growth eased to 1.74 percent from 4.61 percent a year earlier, while services — which account for more than half of GDP -- slowed sharply to 3.52 percent from 7.32 percent, reflecting broad-based weakness across the economy.

Prof Deen said the government’s stimulus package and budget incentives could offer some relief to entrepreneurs, but their effectiveness would depend on timely implementation and complementary reforms.

“Providing subsidised credit is necessary, but it is not sufficient,” he said. “Manufacturers cannot expand production if they do not have reliable access to energy. The real challenge is ensuring that financial support is matched by uninterrupted gas and electricity supplies and a stable business environment.”

He also pointed to the need to revive private investment.

“Banks have become increasingly risk-averse, with much of their liquidity flowing into government securities instead of productive private-sector lending,” the economics professor said. “Unless confidence returns and credit begins flowing to industries, industrial recovery will remain slow despite fiscal incentives.”

With Bangladesh approaching its graduation from the group of least developed countries, Deen said strengthening industrial competitiveness should be an immediate policy priority.

“The country is entering a more competitive trading environment where industries will no longer enjoy many of the preferential market access benefits they have relied on,” he said.

“This is precisely the time to raise productivity, improve infrastructure, and reduce the cost of doing business. Otherwise, the current slowdown could have lasting implications for exports, employment and long-term economic growth,” he added.

Ashikur Rahman, principal economist at the Policy Research Institute (PRI) of Bangladesh, linked the slowdown to the political transition.

“The election created a wait-and-see environment, prompting businesses to postpone investment decisions amid heightened uncertainty,” he said. “When investors lack policy certainty, private investment naturally slows, and that is reflected in the growth numbers.”

He added that political uncertainty, compounded by external shocks, kept the economic environment weak through the third and fourth quarters.

Referring to the IMF’s projection that Bangladesh’s growth may stay below 3.5 percent without reforms, Ashiur said the forecast should be read as a warning rather than merely a projection.

“Bangladesh cannot expect stronger growth simply through macroeconomic stabilisation. It needs a credible reform agenda that restores confidence among domestic and foreign investors,” he said.

He argued the country appears trapped in a low-growth, high-inflation equilibrium that fiscal consolidation or financial sector reforms alone cannot fix.

“The government also needs productivity-enhancing reforms to improve the investment climate, strengthen institutions, develop skills and remove structural bottlenecks,” said the PRI principal economist. “At the same time, it must present a credible macroeconomic roadmap that brings back predictability and certainty. Once confidence returns, investment, employment and growth will gradually recover.”

The BBS had earlier put the country’s provisional GDP growth for FY26 at 4.14 percent, up from 3.49 percent in the previous fiscal year.

Multilateral lenders have offered a mixed outlook. The World Bank, in its June 2026 Global Economic Prospects, projected Bangladesh’s GDP growth at 3.9 percent, citing persistent macroeconomic challenges and weak private investment. The Asian Development Bank lowered its forecast to 3.7 percent in its July 2026 Asian Development Outlook Update, citing slower industrial activity and continued uncertainty.

The IMF has kept a comparatively more optimistic forecast of 4.7 percent in its April 2026 World Economic Outlook, though it has repeatedly stressed that sustaining higher growth will require comprehensive structural reforms, stronger private investment and macroeconomic stability.

The IMF has also projected that Bangladesh’s economy will grow by 3.5 percent in the current fiscal year (2026-27) amid continued fiscal and financial sector pressures.

Bangladesh's insurance industry continues to struggle with claim settlements, with more than seven out of every 10 claims remaining unpaid as of March this year, despite a legal requirement to settle valid claims within 90 days.

According to the latest data from the Insurance Development and Regulatory Authority (Idra), insurers had received claims worth Tk10,611 crore across the life and non-life segments by the end of March 2026. Of that, Tk7,779 crore, or 73.31%, remained unsettled.

The situation is particularly alarming in the non-life segment, where insurers settled only 11.3% of claims, leaving Tk3,369 crore, or 88.70% of total claims, unpaid.

Life insurers performed relatively better but still left Tk4,410 crore, or 64.73% of claims, unsettled out of Tk6,813 crore received by the end of March 2026.

Industry insiders say persistent delays in claim settlements have badly eroded public confidence in the insurance sector. Many policyholders who pay their premiums regularly do not receive compensation on time.

The crisis has been compounded by insurers' weak financial health, poor corporate governance, underperforming investments, and delays in recovering reinsurance claims.

Regulator moves to clear Tk4,000cr backlog

Against this backdrop, newly appointed Idra Chairman Mir Nadia Nivin recently declared the settlement of long-pending insurance claims as the regulator's top priority.

She said Idra has already begun working to clear nearly Tk4,000 crore in outstanding claims owed by the country's seven most financially distressed life insurance companies. Under the plan, the companies' land, government treasury bonds, fixed deposits held with financially sound banks and other marketable assets will be liquidated in phases, with the proceeds used to pay policyholders.

According to Idra officials, the regulator has already held separate meetings with the sponsors, boards and chief executive officers of the seven companies to review their assets, liabilities, investments and overall financial condition. Fresh valuations have also been ordered where questions exist over asset values. At the same time, Idra is coordinating with Bangladesh Bank to recover deposits of insurance companies that remain stuck in financially troubled banks.

Among life insurers, Baira Life recorded the highest unsettled claim ratio at 99.91%. It was followed by Fareast Islami Life Insurance 99.12%, Homeland Life Insurance 98.97%, Sunflower Life Insurance 98.65% and Padma Islami Life Insurance 98.63%. Nearly all claims filed with these companies remained unpaid through March.

The situation is similarly concerning among non-life insurers. Dhaka Insurance reported the highest unsettled claim ratio at 99.85%, followed by Bangladesh Co-operatives Insurance 99.79%, Northern Islami Insurance 98.86%, Asia Pacific General Insurance 98.29% and Peoples Insurance 98.27%.

Reinsurance delays blamed

Beyond financial weakness, industry stakeholders say structural flaws in the reinsurance system are a key reason for delayed claim settlements in the non-life insurance sector.

Under Bangladesh's insurance law, valid claims must be settled within 90 days. In reality, however, many policyholders wait months or even years for compensation after accidents, fires or other insured losses, leaving individuals and businesses under severe financial strain.

Industry insiders identify the state-owned Sadharan Bima Corporation as a major bottleneck. Existing regulations require non-life insurers to reinsure 50% of their risks with SBC, while the remaining 50% can be placed with foreign reinsurers.

Insurance companies allege that Sadharan Bima often takes a long time to settle its share of claims, preventing insurers from making timely payments to policyholders.

An Idra official, requesting anonymity, told TBS, "One of the main reasons companies cite for delayed claim settlements is the slow settlement of reinsurance claims by Sadharan Bima. We have informed the corporation about the issue, and its new leadership is working to reduce the backlog."

Industry officials say foreign reinsurers generally settle claims on time, while delays are more common at Sadharan Bima. To safeguard their reputation and maintain customer confidence, many private insurers pay claims from their own funds before receiving reinsurance recoveries.

Sadharan Bima officials, however, argue that the delays are not entirely their responsibility. They say insurers often fail to submit complete documentation or pay reinsurance premiums on time, resulting in longer processing times.

A managing director of a leading non-life insurance company, requesting anonymity, said, "Reinsurance claims through Sadharan Bima require additional documentation, which makes the process slower. In many cases, insurers have to settle policyholders' claims from their own funds before receiving payments from the reinsurer."

A senior official at the Bangladesh Insurance Academy said incomplete documentation and claims tied up in lengthy court proceedings are also major reasons behind delayed settlements.

"It is not reasonable to expect claims to be settled when premiums remain unpaid. Meanwhile, ongoing court disputes continue to delay the process. Without coordinated efforts by insurers, reinsurers, regulators and policyholders, the situation is unlikely to improve significantly," he said.

Bangladesh currently has 82 insurance companies, including 36 life insurers and 46 non-life insurers. Of them, 58 are listed on the country's stock exchanges.

The country’s construction sector is facing one of its worst slowdowns in years as weaker public development spending, slower private investment and high borrowing costs reduce demand for housing and construction materials.

Once driven by mega infrastructure projects, rapid urbanisation and a booming housing market, the sector is now struggling with rising costs, financing constraints and policy uncertainty.

Industry leaders said the downturn has affected not only construction companies but also around 269 related industries, including steel, cement, ceramics, bricks, electrical equipment, transport and furniture.

Construction material manufacturers are cutting prices, absorbing losses and operating below capacity as sales decline and financial pressure rises.

Sector insiders said weaker public development spending is a major reason behind the slowdown. The implementation rate of the Annual Development Programme (ADP) dropped to its lowest level in five years in FY2025-26.

According to the Implementation Monitoring and Evaluation Division (IMED), ministries and divisions implemented projects worth Tk 100,764 crore during July-May, accounting for 48 percent of the revised ADP allocation.

Private investment has also slowed due to political uncertainty, high borrowing costs and weak business confidence, further reducing demand for construction work.

HOUSING MARKET UNDER PRESSURE

The housing sector has been hit hardest, with weaker sales and rising financing costs delaying projects. Developers focused on premium apartments are facing greater challenges as buyers remain cautious.

Anup Kumar Sarker, executive director (marketing) of Concord Group, said sales of premium apartments have weakened as buyers are adopting a wait-and-see approach.

Although transaction volumes have remained relatively stable, revenues have declined due to lower demand for expensive homes.

He said demand for mid-market apartments has remained comparatively stable, but smaller developers that depend heavily on bank loans are facing growing pressure.

“The slowdown is largely due to bank lending rates rising to around 14-15 percent from 9-11 percent previously,” Anup said.

“Most businesses depend on bank financing. With interest rates this high, it has become very difficult to generate enough profit to cover financing costs,” he added.

STEEL MAKERS CUT PRICES AMID FALLING SALES

The slowdown in construction has sharply reduced demand for steel products, forcing manufacturers to lower prices and sell below production costs.

Sumon Chowdhury, secretary general of the Bangladesh Steel Manufacturers Association, said producers initially offered discounts of Tk 500 to Tk 1,500 per tonne before reducing base prices as sales continued to fall.

Rebar prices in Dhaka have declined by around Tk 3,000 to Tk 4,000 per tonne, while MS rod sales have dropped by up to 45 percent due to lower public spending, weak private construction, high inflation and recent floods.

“Factories still have to operate to cover fixed costs such as loan repayments and electricity bills, even though sales have fallen sharply,” Sumon said.

He added that many mills are holding large inventories and selling below production costs to maintain cash flow. Some manufacturers are losing Tk 5,000 to Tk 7,000 per tonne as they struggle with higher electricity tariffs and other production costs.

CEMENT INDUSTRY OPERATING BELOW CAPACITY

Cement producers are also struggling as slower economic growth and reduced construction activity weaken demand.

Mohammad Amirul Haque, managing director of Premier Cement Mills PLC and president of the Bangladesh Cement Manufacturers Association, said government infrastructure work has declined by around 80 percent, while demand for urban housing has fallen sharply.

Although rural construction has provided some support, the industry is currently operating at around 60 percent of its installed capacity, rising to about 70 percent during stronger months.

Amirul said the sector has been hit by several challenges, including the Covid-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine war, taka depreciation, financial sector problems and the recent Middle East crisis.

These factors have increased business costs and discouraged investment, he said.

“Without stronger economic growth, demand for construction materials such as cement, steel, tiles, glass and timber products will remain weak,” he added.

CERAMIC INDUSTRY ALSO HIT

High interest rates and falling purchasing power are further affecting developers and homebuyers.

Md Mamunur Rashid, additional managing director of X Ceramic Group, said high inflation, rising construction costs and weaker purchasing power have significantly reduced housing demand.

Many apartment buyers are struggling to repay loans as lending rates have climbed to 14-15 percent.

He estimated that apartment sales in Dhaka have fallen by 25-30 percent, affecting developers, especially smaller firms. Demand for ceramic products has also declined by 20-30 percent.

Manufacturers are cutting prices and, in many cases, selling below production costs to repay bank loans and avoid defaults.

Mamunur urged the government to withdraw supplementary duty on ceramic tiles, saying they have become an essential construction material rather than a luxury item.

He said reducing taxes on tiles would help lower construction costs and support a recovery in the housing market.

Pragati Insurance has reported a 23.57% year-on-year increase in earnings per share (EPS) for the second quarter of 2026, driven by higher operating and other income.

According to a disclosure published today (20 July), the listed non-life insurer's EPS rose to Tk1.52 for the April-June quarter, up from Tk1.23 in the corresponding period a year earlier.

For the first six months of 2026, the company's EPS climbed 37.6% to Tk3.11, compared with Tk2.26 in the January-June period of 2025.

The insurer also reported a sharp improvement in its net operating cash flow per share (NOCFPS), which increased to Tk2.00 during the first half of 2026. The company attributed the growth to higher premium collections and increased other income.

Its net asset value (NAV) per share stood at Tk54.43 as of 30 June 2026, compared with Tk55.69 at the end of December 2025.

For the full year of 2025, Pragati Insurance posted a net profit of Tk41.88 crore, with an EPS of Tk5.31. The company rewarded shareholders with a 27% cash dividend.

Despite the strong earnings growth, the company's share price fell 2.93% to Tk76.30 on the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) on Monday.

As of June 2026, sponsor-directors held 40.13% of the company's shares, institutional investors owned 23.83%, while the general public held the remaining 36.04%.

The country’s only state-owned diammonium phosphate (DAP) fertiliser plant has remained shut since June 28 after failing to secure phosphoric acid through multiple tenders, raising concerns over fertiliser supplies for agriculture.

Officials said the shutdown at DAP Fertilizer Company Limited (DAPFCL) in Anwara, Chattogram, followed a shortage of phosphoric acid, a key raw material, after repeated import efforts failed amid global supply disruptions.

The plant, in commercial operation since 2006, has two units capable of producing 800 tonnes of fertiliser per day.

“Phosphoric acid and ammonia are the two main raw materials for producing DAP fertiliser,” said Rabiul Alam Khan, deputy general manager (commercial) of DAPFCL.

He told The Daily Star that ammonia is sourced locally from Chittagong Urea Fertilizer Limited (CUFL) and Karnaphuli Fertilizer Company Ltd (KAFCO), while phosphoric acid is imported through tenders.

DAPFCL floated a tender in January to import 20,000 tonnes of phosphoric acid, but the chosen supplier failed to deliver.

The Bangladesh Chemical Industries Corporation (BCIC) invited two more tenders on June 8 and June 23, but got no bids amid market instability linked to renewed conflict in the Middle East, Khan said.

BCIC has floated two fresh tenders, to be opened on August 8 and September 9.

A prolonged shutdown could hit domestic supplies and deepen import reliance, officials said.

Despite earlier ammonia shortages halting output for 58 days this year, DAPFCL produced around 82,000 tonnes of DAP against its 100,000-tonne target in FY26.

The company has again set a 100,000-tonne target for the current fiscal year but fears missing it as production has already stopped.

Bangladesh’s annual fertiliser demand is 65 lakh to 69 lakh tonnes, including 15 lakh tonnes of DAP, according to BCIC and the agriculture ministry. The country imports around 14 lakh tonnes of DAP annually, mainly from Morocco, Tunisia, China and Saudi Arabia.

Modern retail outlets are steadily expanding their footprint across Bangladesh’s urban landscape as consumers increasingly prioritise convenience in shopping.

The number of supermarket chain outlets more than doubled to over 1,500 in 2025 from more than 750 a year earlier. The number of small modern retail stores also increased to 1,500 from 1,000 during the same period, according to the US Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Exporter Guide Annual reports for 2025 and 2026.

The expansion lifted the industry’s annual turnover to an estimated $800 million in 2025, up 33 percent from $600 million the previous year, the reports said.

The USDA published its latest Exporter Guide Annual on Bangladesh early this month. It said the modern retail sector, including supermarkets, convenience stores, and online businesses, is growing as consumers attach greater importance to appearance, ambience, comfort, and the availability of a wide range of products.

While modern retail outlets are increasing in number, industry contacts believe they still account for only 3-4 percent of total urban retail market sales.

“These modern retail chains are striving to differentiate themselves from wet markets by offering a wider range of high-quality products and greater convenience,” the report said.

The USDA report names Shwapno, Agora, Meena Bazar, Unimart, Daily Shopping, Metro Mart, Prince Bazar, Fresh Super Mart, Chaldal, and Pandamart as the top 10 retailers in the country.

The agency said the easing of VAT rules for modern retail by the National Board of Revenue buoyed the sector’s growth.

“However, they also face challenges, such as cold chain capacity, food preservation and packaging, and general transportation logistics,” the report added.

The USDA noted that the e-commerce sector is thriving in the urban food and non-food retail market in Bangladesh, stating that “the adoption of digital technologies and e-commerce is expected to play a crucial role in shaping the sector’s future”.

Furthermore, the hotel and restaurant sector has experienced growth, especially in urban areas. Bangladesh now has 53 government-licensed international chains, local hotels, and resorts, including 20 five-star, eight four-star, and 25 three-star hotels.

Most of these establishments are located in Dhaka, Chattogram, Cox’s Bazar, and Sylhet, catering to the business community and domestic tourists.

The report further highlighted that Bangladesh has more than 1,000 food processing companies. This $8 billion sector grows at an average of eight percent annually as more consumers demand high-value, safe, and quality products.

“The evolving Bangladesh market presents new opportunities for US exporters in fast-moving consumer goods and beverages for the growing modern retail and hospitality sectors,” the report said, adding that consumer-oriented food importers have an interest in US brands and new products.

The report said that US exports of consumer-oriented products to Bangladesh totalled $13.9 million, accounting for less than 1 percent of the $2 billion that Bangladesh imported in that category in 2025. These US exports were valued at $12.7 million in 2024.

The global oil refining industry is flashing warning signs. The supply chain for the products that fuel the global economy is under growing stress as conflicts in the Middle East and Russia ripple through energy markets.

Benchmark crude prices have retreated sharply from the highs of $118 a barrel reached during the height of the Iran war and are now hovering around $85, suggesting many investors believe the threat of an energy crisis has faded.

While crude supplies have partially recovered, the system that converts crude into fuels is still struggling after months of disruption from conflicts in Russia and the Middle East.

Gasoline and diesel inventories sit near multi-year lows, refining margins have surged to record levels, and refinery throughput remains severely curtailed across key producing regions. Households and industry consume refined products, not crude, so this is the stress they should be monitoring.

WARTIME CASUALTIES

Refineries have proven to be tempting targets. In the Middle East, major refineries in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates remain either partially or entirely offline after the outbreak of the Iran conflict on February 28 triggered the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

China, meanwhile, has sharply reduced refinery runs to compensate for the massive decline in imports during the Iran conflict. Across Asia, refiners have also been forced to reduce operations because of constrained crude supplies.

And Russia’s refining sector has been battered by sustained Ukrainian drone attacks, triggering domestic fuel shortages that have forced Moscow to curb diesel exports in a bid to contain soaring local prices.

Taken together, those disruptions removed roughly 5 million barrels per day of global refining output in the second quarter compared with a year earlier, with refinery runs averaging around 78 million bpd, according to the International Energy Agency.

The temporary reopening of Hormuz following the US-Iran ceasefire on June 17 briefly eased some of the pressure. But even though Gulf producers rushed crude exports through the waterway, refined product flows remained far weaker.

According to Kpler data, the region exported around 4 million bpd of crude in June, but only 1 million bpd of oil products, totalling a quarter of pre-war levels.

Now, the renewed disruption to traffic through Hormuz — due to escalating hostilities between the US and Iran — has once again choked off regional exports, threatening hopes for a recovery in Asian or Middle Eastern refinery activity.

Buffers and time are both running short.

US RUNNING OUT OF STEAM

The US emerged as the world’s refinery of last resort in the first half of this year, ramping up exports of crude, gasoline, diesel and aviation fuel to compensate for disruptions elsewhere. But it is now running out of steam.

US crude inventories, including commercial stocks and those in the government’s emergency reserve, have fallen since the start of the Iran war to their lowest level since 1984.

Gasoline stocks are at their thinnest seasonal level since 2012, while diesel inventories only recently recovered from their lowest levels in more than two decades.

At the same time, total US crude and product exports have started to retreat as refiners meet rising domestic demand.

Weekly exports fell to 10.7 million bpd last week, the weakest since March, after reaching a record 14.2 million bpd in April.

With domestic stockpiles under pressure and summer fuel demand at its seasonal peak, Washington’s ability to keep supplying the rest of the world looks increasingly constrained.

CRACKING CRACKS

Perhaps the clearest signal of distress comes from refining profits. The benchmark US 3-2-1 refining margin, or crack spread, recently surged to nearly $70 a barrel, an all-time high. In Northwest Europe, refining margins climbed to seasonal records near $30 a barrel. Diesel markets appear particularly tight.

European diesel margins have jumped to a record of around $65 a barrel, while US gasoline margins are hovering near the record levels reached during the energy shock of 2022 after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Markets do not pay refiners such extraordinary premiums unless consumers are competing for scarce fuel supplies.

TRUMP CARD MIGHT NOT WORK

As the Iran crisis enters its fifth month, traders have become increasingly convinced that US President Donald Trump will do almost anything to avoid a politically damaging spike in US fuel prices.

But the bright flashing warning signs coming out of the refining system suggest the US president may struggle to prevent one. A rapid recovery in global refinery output remains unlikely.

Several major refining hubs remain impaired, due to conflict, supply disruptions or export restrictions, just as summer demand for road fuels and jet fuel is reaching its peak. Diesel stocks typically build during summer ahead of winter.

Refining output in Russia will likely take months, if not years, to recover, assuming no further Ukrainian strikes — an assumption few are willing to make.

Middle East refineries will also require months to ramp up operations once flows through Hormuz are normalised — whenever that is. As inventories run dry, the only remaining market lever would be demand destruction, which could curtail economic activity around the world.

Energy markets have handled the chaotic first half of 2026 remarkably well, but with global fuel stocks now running worryingly thin, the global economy finds itself dangerously exposed.

Gold prices were little changed on Monday as investors assessed an escalation in the Middle East war that pushed oil prices higher.

Another US Federal Reserve policymaker signalled that interest rate hikes may be needed to curb inflation.Spot gold was steady at $4,018.19 per ounce, as of 0756 GMT. US gold futures for August delivery gained 0.1 percent to $4,023.Oil prices jumped more than 3 percent after US forces struck Iran for a ninth consecutive day on Monday.

This came as the number of confirmed American military deaths in the renewed fighting rose to three.Concals also grew over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The war is still ongoing, with a focus on rising oil prices that could lead to higher inflation, which is keeping gold pressured, said GoldSilver Central Managing Director Brian Lan.

However, $4,000 has been an important level, and shows that there is support for the metal when it falls below that mark.

Elevated oil prices stoke inflation fears and bets of higher-for-longer interest rates.

While gold is typically seen as an inflation hedge, high interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding asset.

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack added her voice to a growing chorus of policymakers arguing interest rates may need to rise.

This is to beat back persistent inflation, setting up a charged debate at the Fed’s next meeting on July 29.

Traders are now pricing an 82 percent chance of a December interest-rate hike, versus 73 percent last week, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

In the longer term, I’m more cautious on gold and looking at the key $3,886 level, said Kelvin Wong, a senior market analyst at OANDA.

If that level is taken out on the downside, it could potentially unleash further weakness towards $3,500, Wong added.

The Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) and its affiliated institutions provided investment education to a total of 21,732 individuals during the 2025-26 fiscal year.

This extensive nationwide outreach, which included various training programmes, seminars, workshops, and conferences, was part of a broader strategy to increase investor awareness, facilitate informed decision-making, and build a healthy and stable capital market.

According to a press release issued by the BSEC today (20 July), these initiatives targeted a wide range of participants, from retail investors to financial professionals and journalists.

The BSEC's Financial Literacy Division played a central role in this initiative, reaching 4,660 people between July 2025 and June 2026. This training pool included 1,896 general investors and 1,194 employees of various market intermediary firms. To ensure accurate media coverage, the commission conducted workshops for 52 capital market journalists.

Furthermore, the division organised a high-level seminar on US SEC surveillance, capital issuance, and financial literacy for 81 participants, while also training 106 authorised representatives of DSE TREC-holders.

Special events also drew significant participation, with 1,290 individuals attending programmes during World Investor Week 2025.

The commission further focused on sector-specific growth by training 91 SME entrepreneurs on raising capital through public offerings. In a bid to promote gender inclusivity in the financial sector, 35 women investors participated in dedicated financial investment workshops, alongside another 26 individuals in miscellaneous educational sessions.

The regulator emphasised that this massive educational drive was a collective effort involving the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE), Chittagong Stock Exchange (CSE), Central Depository Bangladesh Limited (CDBL), and the Investment Corporation of Bangladesh (ICB).

Key academic and professional bodies, including the Bangladesh Institute of Capital Market (BICM) and the Bangladesh Academy for Securities Markets (BASM), also took part.

Additionally, individual brokerage houses, merchant bankers, and listed companies carried out their own literacy initiatives to reach a broader audience.

Institutional data showed that, excluding BSEC's affiliated divisions, brokerage houses trained the highest number of participants at 3,876, followed by the Chittagong Stock Exchange (3,350), the Bangladesh Academy for Securities Markets (2,589), merchant bankers (2,352) and the Dhaka Stock Exchange (1,339).

Other contributors included 185 people trained by publicly listed companies, 181 by the BICM, 180 by the CDBL, and 111 by the ICB.

This multi-stakeholder approach underlines the regulator's commitment to ensuring that market participants at all levels are well-equipped with the financial knowledge necessary to navigate the bourse safely and effectively.

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has warned the public in Bangladesh against fraudulent schemes that misuse its name and logo to offer fake loans in exchange for fees.

ADB does not provide loans, funds, or financial assistance directly to individuals. Nor does it request personal financial information or seek payments through mobile banking or any other channel in exchange for financial assistance, the multilateral lender said in a statement yesterday.

Citing recent reports, ADB said fraudsters have created fake websites, Facebook pages, IDs, and other deceptive materials impersonating the bank and its staff to mislead people and solicit payments.

“ADB has no involvement in these schemes,” it said.

The international financial institution advised the public to remain vigilant and avoid responding to fake loan offers. Anyone approached by individuals or groups claiming to offer ADB loans or financial assistance should report the incident to the appropriate authorities.

ADB said it is a long-standing development partner of Bangladesh, working with the government and private sector organisations to support development projects through transparent business processes.

“Any person claiming to represent ADB and offering loans directly to individuals is acting fraudulently,” it said.

Founded in 1966, ADB is a multilateral development bank that supports sustainable, inclusive, and resilient growth across Asia and the Pacific. It is owned by 69 members, 50 of whom are from the region.

The US dollar has resumed its upward trend over the past three to four weeks, driven by higher import payment pressures, weaker remittance inflows, slower export earnings and changing market expectations following recent discussions between the Bangladesh Bank and the International Monetary Fund, according to bankers and central bank officials.

Yesterday (20 July), several commercial banks purchased remittance dollars from exchange houses at Tk123.75 per dollar, about 10 paisa higher than in early July. Bangladesh Bank data also show the interbank exchange rate rose by 75 paisa over the past week to Tk123.60.

Although the central bank had kept the benchmark interbank rate at Tk122.85 for a prolonged period, treasury officials say actual transactions were rarely conducted at that level.

Bangladesh Bank data show that letters of credit worth more than $7 billion were settled in June, with government imports accounting for a significant share. Higher global prices of fuel and fertiliser, partly due to the conflict in the Middle East, pushed up import costs and increased demand for foreign currency.

Since LCs are generally settled one to three months after opening, many import orders placed in March and April became due in June and July.

In addition, a large number of deferred-payment UPAS [Usance Payable at Sight] LCs opened during Ramadan were settled in June, while some are still being settled this month, keeping demand for dollars elevated.

Meanwhile, foreign currency inflows have weakened. Bangladesh received $2.82 billion in remittances in June, the lowest monthly inflow in eight months.

Export earnings have also declined. According to the Export Promotion Bureau, merchandise exports fell by $4.2 billion in FY26 compared with the previous fiscal year, reducing the supply of dollars in the banking system.

Bangladesh Bank's Economic Indicators report shows LC settlements reached $70.4 billion in FY26, slightly higher than $70.3 billion a year earlier, indicating import demand remained strong despite slower export growth.

Bankers also attribute the market's volatility to aggressive competition among some commercial banks for remittance dollars. Treasury officials say some banks are paying higher prices to secure remittance inflows while selling dollars at lower rates, particularly for government LC payments, creating distortions in the foreign exchange market.

Market expectations have also shifted following recent IMF discussions. Officials said the IMF questioned why Bangladesh Bank's dollar purchases through auctions remained within a narrow price range.

After the meetings, the central bank began publishing the prevailing interbank exchange rate on its website instead of the earlier benchmark, reinforcing expectations that the exchange rate would be increasingly market-driven.

A senior Bangladesh Bank official said that, as the government negotiates a new IMF loan programme, the central bank is refraining from informal intervention in exchange rate determination, encouraging exchange houses to seek higher prices for remittance dollars.

As the country’s top revenue authority intensifies monitoring of tax deducted at source (TDS), it should ensure that compliant businesses are not subjected to unnecessary harassment, the Dhaka Chamber of Commerce and Industry (DCCI) said in a statement yesterday.

The call comes a day after the National Board of Revenue (NBR) said it has deployed special teams under its tax zones to monitor and verify source tax deduction and deposit.

The revenue authority said it has empowered officials under Section 147(2) of the Income Tax Act 2023 to inspect business premises, examine account books and records, and access computer systems, including by breaking passwords or encryption where necessary.

Reacting to the development, the DCCI said if implemented properly, the NBR initiative would help boost revenue collection and widen the tax net.

The chamber, however, cautioned that compliant businesses should be spared unnecessary harassment during the exercise, and that businesses yet to achieve full compliance should be given adequate time and a fair opportunity to do so.

Both the revenue collection target and a business-friendly environment can be achieved simultaneously, DCCI President Taskeen Ahmed said, calling for constructive dialogue between the NBR and the business community.

The effective adoption of automation and digitalisation across the revenue administration is essential to widen the tax net and meet collection targets, he added.

Such measures would significantly reduce the compliance burden on the private sector while making the tax system more efficient, transparent, and business-friendly, he said.

Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) has published a draft amendment to "Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (Margin) Rules, 2025" and invited opinions, suggestions and objections from stakeholders, according to a press release issued by the commission today (20 July).

The draft amendment has been published in national daily newspapers as well as on the BSEC website, with stakeholders given two weeks from the date of publication to submit their feedback to the commission.

The commission said the consultation is a legal requirement and under the Securities and Exchange Ordinance, 1969, and the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission Act, 1993, seeking opinions from stakeholders is a mandatory process whenever any rule is framed or amended.
BSEC said it would give due importance to all opinions, suggestions and objections received, and the rules would be finalised after necessary revisions, additions or modifications before being enacted through a government gazette notification.The commission clarified that the currently published draft is merely a proposal and not a final amendment, stating there is no scope for confusion or concern based on various assumptions, speculation or incomplete information regarding the draft.BSEC said it always attaches the highest importance to the interests and safety of investors, adding that the objective of the proposed amendment is to make the existing rules simpler, more practical, business-friendly and effective.

The commission said the final rules would be investor-friendly and aimed at ensuring overall market development and stability, taking into account the opinions and suggestions of all stakeholders.

The commission expressed hope that stakeholders would provide constructive feedback and that the media would present the draft amendment and the legal process appropriately, avoiding unnecessary confusion or concern among investors.

Brent crude hit its highest price since June on Monday due to renewed fighting between the United States and Iran, while Asian equities were mixed as investors weighed the fallout of a prolonged Middle East war.

Crude has surged over the past week as Washington and Tehran traded fire, raising fears of a sustained disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, which normally carries around a fifth of the world’s seaborne oil.

Both Brent crude and US benchmark West Texas Intermediate extended their gains after climbing more than four percent at the end of last week. Brent rose above $91 a barrel, its highest price since June 11.

The latest moves came after another weekend of escalating fighting, with the United States carrying out fresh strikes on Iranian targets and Tehran responding with attacks on regional military assets in the Gulf.

Higher crude prices have revived concerns that inflation could remain elevated and complicate the path to lower interest rates, but some analysts argue the broader economic backdrop is becoming more supportive.

“Markets are once again being forced to trade two seemingly contradictory stories on the same screen,” said Stephen Innes of SPI Asset Management.

While the renewed rise in oil prices has injected a fresh geopolitical risk premium into markets, he said cooling underlying US inflation and a softer labour market suggested the energy shock would not necessarily trigger a new cycle of broad-based inflation.

Instead, the biggest risk would come if elevated oil prices persist long enough to erode household spending and weigh on economic growth.

In Asia, the market was mixed.

Chinese markets outperformed as investors extended a recent rally on expectations Beijing will unveil further measures to support the economy after last week’s economic data.

Hong Kong added more than two percent, while Shanghai ended the day’s trade in the green. Manila and Jakarta edged higher.

Caution prevailed elsewhere.

Seoul closed 4.46 percent down. Taipei was down, as was Sydney, Mumbai, Bangkok, Singapore and Kuala Lumpur.

London, Paris and Frankfurt also opened in the red.

The mellow performance followed another weak session on Wall Street, where all three major indexes finished lower on Friday as investors continued to rotate out of technology shares while keeping a close watch on developments in the Gulf.

Adding to worries about tech, Chinese startup Moonshot AI released on Friday a model that experts said could rival some of the more advanced offerings from US labs.

“Having had the weekend to digest the launch of Moonshot’s Kimi K3 model and its potential implications for the pricing power of the major US AI labs... markets appear to be taking a more measured view,” said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone.

Gold eased despite the geopolitical uncertainty, falling 0.25 percent, while silver advanced a little over one percent.