Oil prices rose Wednesday as talks to end the Iran war appeared to be at a standstill and the crucial Strait of Hormuz no nearer being reopened.

While the White House has said Donald Trump and his team were considering Tehran’s latest proposal to restore traffic through the waterway, CNN and the Wall Street Journal said the president was sceptical.

The Islamic republic this week submitted a plan that would reportedly see it ease the chokehold and Washington lift its retaliatory blockade on the country’s ports as talks continued, including over its nuclear programme.

While US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Iran’s proposal was “better than what we thought they were going to submit”, he insisted any eventual deal had to be “one that definitively prevents them from sprinting towards a nuclear weapon”.

Iranian defence ministry spokesman Reza Talaei-Nik said Washington “must abandon its illegal and irrational demands”, adding the United States was “no longer in a position to dictate its policy to independent nations”.

Qatar warned of the possibility of a “frozen conflict” if a definitive resolution is not found.

Concerns about the stalled peace push have pushed crude prices higher for more than a week, with Trump’s decision to cancel his envoys’ trip for peace talks in Pakistan last weekend adding to the downbeat mood.

Brent is above the level it hit before the two sides announced a ceasefire at the start of April, while West Texas Intermediate broke $100 Tuesday for the first time in two weeks.

Both contracts continued to rise Wednesday, with Brent holding above $113 and WTI above $101.

“Iran wants the blockade lifted and access to its flows restored,” wrote Stephen Innes at SPI Asset Management.

“Washington holds that lever and is in no hurry to give it away without extracting value.

“Meanwhile, the longer this drags on, the more second-order effects start to bite. Storage pressure builds, production risks emerge, and the system begins to strain in ways that futures prices cannot ignore.”

There was little major reaction to news that key producer United Arab Emirates had decided to withdraw from the OPEC and OPEC+ oil cartels on Friday, calling it a strategic decision.

Still, CNN also cited sources familiar with the mediation as saying the two sides were not as far apart as they seemed.

It added that intense diplomacy continued and talks were focused on a staged process with the first part of a potential deal aimed at returning to the pre-war status and reopening the Strait.

Iran’s nuclear programme would be dealt with down the line, it said.

Despite the uncertainty, Asian equity markets mostly rose with Hong Kong up more than one percent, while Shanghai, Seoul, Wellington, Manila, Bangkok, Mumbai and Jakarta also advanced.

Sydney, Singapore and Taipei fell along with London, Paris and Frankfurt.

Tokyo was closed for a holiday.

Traders were given a weak lead from Wall Street, where the Nasdaq led losses owing to a tech selloff that came on the back of a report in the Wall Street Journal that ChatGPT-maker OpenAI had missed targets on the number of users and revenue.

The news came as markets gear up for the release of earnings from Wall Street titans Amazon, Google, Meta and Microsoft this week.

The Federal Reserve will also conclude a two-day meeting later in the day, with investors keeping tabs on its outlook for inflation and interest rates as energy costs soar.

The country's insured population has fallen sharply despite a costly reform initiative, with the number of policyholders dropping by around 40% during the implementation of a Tk925-crore development project.

When the Bangladesh Insurance Sector Development Project was launched in 2018, the total number of insured individuals – both life and non-life – stood at about 1.36 crore. The project aimed to raise this to 2 crore within four years. Instead, the number declined to 82.2 lakh by the end of 2024, according to data from the Insurance Development and Regulatory Authority.

Of the country's 79 insurers, only two are state-owned – one each in the life and non-life sectors. But the World Bank-aided project focused only on the two state insurers and the regulatory body, the Insurance Development and Regulatory Authority (Idra).

The project aimed at raising insurance coverage, improving services, introducing automation and restoring public trust in the insurance sector by strengthening the two state insurers and the regulator.

Inclusion of only two state-owned insurers – Jiban BimaCorporation and Sadharan Bima Corporation – raised questions about the limited scope of the intervention.

Project Director Md Abdur Rab told The Business Standard, "The time to increase penetration has not yet arrived. The project is currently nearing completion; I hope its operations will play a significant role in increasing penetration in the future."

Abu Abed Muhammad Shoaib, deputy general manager of the ICT Division at Jiban Bima Corporation, said, "There has been some progress as a result of this project. Certain tasks that were previously handled manually are now being digitised. However, the use of all modules and sub-modules of the project's software has not yet commenced."

Automation goals fall short

A key objective of the project was to automate operations at Idra, Jiban Bima Corporation, Sadharan Bima Corporation, and the Bangladesh Insurance Academy. However, officials say progress has been limited.

Mohammad Jainul Bari, who served as chairman of Idra from June 2022 to September 2024 and later as chairman of SadharanBima Corporation, noted that automation efforts fell short, particularly due to poor performance by software vendors.

"Critical goals such as real-time monitoring and improved supervision could not be achieved," he said.

Md Abdur Rab said a software system comprising 121 modules has been developed through this project. He noted that while some of these modules are already in use, others are currently in the process of being implemented. These modules are intended to establish a new system within the insurance sector, ensuring the protection of policyholders' interests.

He further added that other insurance companies will be brought under the umbrella of this software shortly.

Brigadier General (retd) Shafique Shamim, general secretary of the Bangladesh Insurance Forum and managing director of SenaInsurance, said the project had contributed to partial improvements across the sector, particularly in automation efforts involving the regulator and state-owned entities. However, he noted that not all insurers have been able to adopt the systems fully, citing higher management costs and regulatory constraints as key barriers.

Economy expands, insurance lags

The fall in coverage coincided with a decline in insurance penetration, measured as a share of gross domestic product, from 0.55% in 2018 to 0.36% in 2024. Life insurance led the downturn. The performance remains significantly below regional peers such as Sri Lanka at 1.15%, India at 3.46% and Malaysia at 4.51%.

This decline has occurred despite rapid economic growth. Bangladesh's GDP expanded from around Tk22.5 lakh crore in 2018 to Tk50.48 lakh crore in 2024. However, insurance premium income failed to keep pace with the broader economy.

Premium growth collapses

The sector has also seen a sharp slowdown in premium income growth.

Life insurance premium growth, which stood at 9.64% in 2018, turned negative by 2024. Overall premium growth – combining life and non-life insurance – fell from 10.76% to just 0.49% over the same period.

Costs rise, deadlines extended

The five-year project initially had a budget of Tk632 crore but was revised three times to Tk925 crore due to slow implementation. Its tenure was extended five times and is now set to conclude in mid-2026, after an additional six-month extension beyond the latest December 2025 deadline.

In its final phase, the project is seeing a surge in spending. Around Tk175 crore is being disbursed in a single fiscal year, largely to clear accumulated bills. As of June 2025, about 81% of the total allocation had been utilised, with only Tk3.82 crore remaining.

Md Abdur Rab noted that expenditure in the final year will be higher than in previous years, as outstanding bills for various completed works are now being settled. "Consequently, a significant amount of funding will be required at once."

He remarked that managing this level of expenditure remains a challenging task.

Capacity gaps and leadership issues

Sector insiders point to a lack of technical expertise as a major constraint.

Several project directors were career bureaucrats with limited experience in the insurance sector, leading to gaps in implementation and continuity.

"The majority of those involved in implementing the project were from outside the insurance sector," former Idra member Sultan-ul-Abedin Molla said.

He added, "The project directors were all joint secretaries, who lacked specific experience in insurance. Furthermore, several project directors were reluctant to carry out their duties. Consequently, the project suffered from a lack of skilled personnel during its implementation."

Erosion of public trust

Idra's annual report attributes the sector's stagnation largely to declining public confidence, particularly due to delays in claim settlements. This has slowed both new customer acquisition and premium growth.

Sultan-ul-Abedin Molla said the sector's underperformance reflects deeper structural issues.

"While other sectors of the economy have grown, insurance has lagged. Lack of transparency and trust has driven down penetration relative to GDP," he said.

Brigadier General (retd) Shafique Shamim said that although regulatory reforms under the 2010 law have brought some discipline, delays in claim settlements and low public awareness remain major challenges, even as economic growth, a rising middle class and expanding digital services offer strong potential for the sector.

Project goals largely achieved: WB

The World Bank, however, said it is satisfied with the project outcomes, which were largely fraught with delays, highlighting broader issues of political inertia and the complexities of governance that can impede regulatory progress.

In its project implementation status report in April 2025, the global lender said the project has enabled Idra to increase its technical capacity to develop new insurance products, such as the introduction of new regulations for bancassurance in 2023, a focus on microinsurance and Islamic insurance takaful, draft of a new National Insurance Policy for 2024-2029, draft amendments to the Idra Act and Insurance Act.

Jamuna Bank has reported that its consolidated net profit jumped by 100% in 2025 compared to the previous year.

According to the bank's price-sensitive statement, its consolidated net profit of Tk558 crore and earnings per share stood at Tk5.92, which was Tk279 crore and Tk2.97 respectively a year ago.

The bank said earnings per share increased due to an increase in income from government securities and a decrease in provisions as compared to the previous year.

The board of the bank also recommended a 29% cash dividend to its shareholders for the year of 2025 ended 31 December.

To approve the dividend and audited financial statement, the bank has scheduled the annual general meeting date for 27 July, and the record date is set for 3 June.

Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said on ​Wednesday that the decision by the United Arab Emirates ‌to leave Opec will mean the oil-producing countries will boost production, bringing down global prices in the future.

Russia is a member of the ​Opec+ group of countries and has been coordinating ​its policies with Opec members. Russia is seen as the main beneficiary of the spike in global ​oil prices due to the war in the Middle East.

“Today ​we hear that one of the countries, the United Arab Emirates, is leaving Opec. What does this mean? It means that the ​country can produce as much oil as its production ​capacities allow and release it onto the market,” Siluanov said.

Siluanov’s comments marked ‌Russia’s first reaction to the surprise UAE exit. Russia has strong ties with both the UAE and Opec leader Saudi Arabia.

“If Opec countries conduct their policies in an uncoordinated manner (after ​UAE exit) and ​produce as much oil as their production capacities allow and as much as they want, prices ​will go down accordingly,” he added.

He stressed that ​for now the oil prices were supported by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and that his predictions of oversupply referred ​to the situation when the passage ​would open at some point in the future.

The dollar edged higher on Wednesday as investors awaited a closely watched Federal Reserve rate decision in what was likely ​to be Chair Jerome Powell’s swan song, against a backdrop of an Iran war that shows little sign of imminent resolution.

Activity was tempered by markets ‌in Japan closing for a public holiday and by caution ahead of a string of major central bank decisions over the coming 48 hours, along with the likes of Amazon, Microsoft and Meta reporting earnings after Wednesday’s closing bell.

Against the dollar, the euro dipped 0.07 percent to $1.1705 while sterling slipped 0.05 percent to $1.3513, as both currencies edged further away from their highs earlier this month.

The euro is around 1 percent below where ​it was at the end of February when the war broke out, while the pound is roughly unchanged.

The Fed’s rate decision will later take centre stage. The ​central bank is widely expected to keep rates on hold, leaving the focus on policymakers’ assessment of the war’s impact on the economy and on Powell’s future.

“The question is what Powell is going to do, because he still holds the governor seat until 2028 - so whether he chooses to resign after the expiry of ​the Chair term or if he stays on as a governor and as sort of a shadow Chair,” said Carol Kong, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

“Powell has ​previously said that he will stay on if he thinks that Fed independence is under threat, so I think his decision ... will depend on his perception of Fed independence.”

In geopolitics, efforts to end the Iran war were at an impasse with US President Donald Trump unhappy with the latest proposal from Tehran because he wants nuclear issues dealt with from the outset.

Oil rose for an eighth straight day, the longest ​such stretch since May 2022, in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The June contract that expires on Wednesday was up another 1 percent at $112 a barrel , while the most-active ​July was at $105, which dampened confidence and fed some demand for the dollar in its capacity as a safe-haven currency.

“Crude oil is again trading back above the $110-a-barrel level with potential economic consequences over ‌the summer period ⁠becoming more severe,” MUFG head of research for global markets EMEA Derek Halpenny said.

“Europe and Asia will be more severely hit and if this drags on there will be increased downside pressure on the euro and Asian currencies,” he added.

Two listed companies of Alif Group—Alif Industries Limited and Alif Manufacturing Limited—have taken a preliminary decision to transfer their business management operations to US-based JIT International Inc.

According to disclosures made on the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) on Tuesday (28 April), the decisions were made at board meetings held at the companies' registered offices.

The move remains subject to compliance with applicable laws, regulations, and approvals from relevant authorities.

Following the announcement, trading of both companies' shares was halted on the Dhaka Stock Exchange today (29 April).

The companies stated that JIT International Inc., located at 45 Lockatong Road, Stockton, Stockton, New Jersey, USA, has expressed its interest in acquiring strategic control and management of the two Alif Group firms.

To facilitate the process, the boards have authorised Managing Director Md Azimul Islam to initiate and complete the necessary formalities for the proposed transaction.

At the same meetings, both companies appointed Mir Hasan Ali and Ziaul Abedin as independent directors. Mir Hasan Ali was elected chairman of the board while Ziaul Abedin was appointed vice chairman.

Md Tuhin Reza has also been appointed chief executive officer (CEO) of both companies with immediate effect. Additionally, Md Kamal Hossain has been appointed Company Secretary of Alif Industries Limited.

Alif Manufacturing Limited also approved similar decisions regarding the transfer of strategic control to JIT International Inc., with Md Azimul Islam assigned to lead and coordinate the process and complete all required formalities.

The Board further directed that the CEO coordinate with all relevant stakeholders—including regulatory authorities, banks, financial institutions, and others—to implement the proposed transaction.

The company has not yet disclosed details regarding management fees or whether JIT International Inc will subsequently acquire shares or ownership in the companies. The timeline for completing the process has also not been specified.

Managing Director Md Azimul could not be reached for comment despite multiple attempts via phone. He also did not respond to text messages.

A company official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the decision is still at a preliminary stage and that further details will be disclosed in due course.

The official added that the move comes as the current management has faced challenges in efficiently operating the businesses.

Limited information is available about JIT International Inc. However, unofficial sources suggest that it is a US-based company associated with buying-house operations, which may potentially source garments from Alif Group.

Soybean oil prices have been raised by Tk4 per litre, setting the new rate at Tk199 per litre.

Following the adjustment, a 5-litre bottle will cost Tk975, up from the previous price of Tk955.

Commerce Minister Khandaker Abdul Muktadir announced the revised prices today (29 April) after a meeting to review edible oil rates, saying the adjustment was made in line with market conditions.

Meanwhile, loose soybean oil has been priced at Tk180 per litre, up from Tk176. The price of palm oil remained unchanged at Tk166 per litre.

Justifying the upward revision, the minister said traders had been purchasing oil at elevated prices since Ramadan and selling at a loss, prompting persistent appeals from importers and refiners for a price correction, reports UNB.

"The prices of import-dependent commodities have risen due to adverse global conditions, placing significant strain on businesses," Muktadir said. "Traders had sought a steeper increase, but the government has kept prices within consumers' reach."

The minister assured consumers that prices would be reviewed and readjusted once the international soybean oil market stabilises.

Traders pledged to sell at the newly fixed rates and committed to making no further revision requests ahead of Eid-ul-Adha, he added.

The price adjustment comes amid a prolonged supply crunch lasting over a month, particularly for five-litre bottled soybean oil.

Market surveys indicate the product has already been changing hands at Tk980 to over Tk1,020, well above the official ceiling of Tk955, underscoring the gap between regulated and street-level prices that the revised rates now seek to narrow.

Earlier on 7 December last year, the price of bottled soybean oil was set at Tk195 per litre, and loose soybean was priced at Tk176 per litre. Palm oil prices saw a sharper rise, with the rate increasing by Tk16 per litre to Tk166, from the earlier price of Tk150.

Bangladesh and the European Union (EU) have expressed a renewed commitment to deepening their long-standing partnership.

The fifth round of Bangladesh-EU Diplomatic Consultations was held today (29 April) after a gap of nearly five years, according to a press statement.

The consultations were co-chaired by Foreign Secretary Asad Alam Siam and Erik Kurzweil, managing director for Asia Pacific at the European External Action Service.

The meeting reviewed Bangladesh-EU relations and explored cooperation in priority sectors, with Dhaka emphasising a forward-looking partnership in line with evolving strategic and economic realities, according to the statement.

The discussions followed the recent initialling of the Partnership and Cooperation Agreement (PCA), which both sides expect will provide a structured framework for future cooperation once internal processes are finalised.

The EU acknowledged Bangladesh's February 2026 parliamentary elections, referring to the final report of its Election Observation Mission. The two sides also exchanged views on democratic governance, human rights and the rule of law.

According to the statement, the new government, formed with a public mandate, seeks to bring fresh momentum to bilateral ties and realise untapped potential.

Bangladesh highlighted the importance of preferential market access to sustain trade ties and outlined interest in future arrangements, including a possible Free Trade Agreement and an Investment Protection Agreement.

Discussions also covered cooperation in research and innovation, with Bangladesh expressing interest in broader participation in Horizon Europe and joint initiatives on knowledge exchange, technology transfer and capacity building.

Photo: Courtesy
Photo: Courtesy

On migration, Bangladesh highlighted progress in labour sector reforms and stressed the importance of expanding safe and regular migration pathways. Both sides also emphasised cooperation to combat human trafficking and irregular migration.

On climate change, Bangladesh reiterated its vulnerabilities and stressed the need for enhanced access to climate finance, technology transfer and support for adaptation and resilience, including under initiatives such as the EU's Global Gateway.

The two sides also exchanged views on regional and global developments, including the Middle East crisis, and reaffirmed their commitment to multilateralism and a rules-based international order. Bangladesh reiterated the need for sustained international support to resolve the Rohingya crisis.

Both sides underscored the importance of holding regular consultations to fully harness the potential of Bangladesh-EU relations, the statement added.

Commerce Minister Khandakar Abdul Muktadir yesterday (29 April) called for bringing the gold trade under the formal economy, asserting that the jewellery sector holds untapped export potential worth billions of dollars for Bangladesh.

"People think the gold business is part of a black economy. I will not get into the black-and-white debate; what we want is the entire sector to become part of the visible economy," he said while speaking at a consultative committee meeting of the National Board of Revenue (NBR) held at a city hotel.

Pointing to India's $52 billion annual earnings from gold jewellery exports, Muktadir said Bangladesh possesses craftsmen of comparable skills, yet the country has little to show for it. "Bangladesh should be earning at least $12-14 billion from this sector, but that is simply not happening."

To unlock the sector's potential and generate export revenue, he stressed the need to upgrade laboratory facilities, modernise jewellery designs, and overhaul government policies to align with contemporary market demands.

The minister also identified the energy crisis and high interest rates on bank loans as major impediments to doing business, cautioning that failure to improve the tax-to-GDP ratio will significantly constrain the country's economic momentum.

He called on the business community to shift their mindset towards tax compliance and contribute meaningfully to national development.

Earlier in the meeting, the Federation of Bangladesh Chambers of Commerce and Industry proposed raising the tax-free income ceiling to Tk5 lakh for general taxpayers and Tk5.5 lakh for women in the upcoming budget, while also recommending capping the highest tax rate at 25 percent.

The apex trade body further demanded an increase in the Export Development Fund beyond its current $7 billion limit and sought budgetary support for the implementation of the 'One District, One Product (ODOP)' programme.

Visa shares jumped 5% in premarket trading on Wednesday after the payments-processing company beat estimates for second-quarter profit and lifted expectations for full-year earnings, as consumer spending remained strong.

Payments volume showed continued growth as consumers remained resilient in the quarter, even as escalations in the Middle East worsened economic uncertainty.

CEO Ryan McInerney said in a post-earnings call that Visa was closely monitoring the situation in the region. The company said several factors would offset weakness in cross-border travel, such as stronger US-bound demand linked to the FIFA World Cup and higher commercial travel volumes.

Cross-border payments, viewed as a real-time gauge of global trade and travel because of Visa's scale, are closely monitored by analysts and economists. The company's cross-border volume in the second quarter rose 12% on a constant-dollar basis, compared with 13% a year earlier.

"There's a lot to be impressed by in Visa's print, particularly in the context of investor concerns going in that cross-border growth would dramatically slow in April," J.P. Morgan analysts said in a note.

Shares of the company have lost about 12% so far in 2026, lagging behind the broader S&P 500 index, but still outperforming American Express.

"Visa posted its strongest growth profile in years supported by multiple self-reinforcing levers while doing well to articulate upside potential from agentic commerce and stablecoins," TD Cowen analysts said in a note.

The company's board also authorised a new $20 billion multi-year share repurchase programme.

Visa is investing in organic growth and acquisitions, and the share repurchase shows the company's "ability to have a balanced capital allocation strategy where we return excess free cash flow to clients," finance chief Chris Suh said in an interview with Reuters.

On 6 April, India's indigenously developed 500 MWe nuclear Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor (PFBR) at a power plant in Kalpakkam in Tamil Nadu successfully attained first criticality.

What it means in simple terms is that the nuclear reaction in the reactor has become safely self-sustaining and is on its way to generating electricity.

There are two key takeaways from the feat: one, it puts India in the second stage of its three-stage nuclear power programme conceived in the 1950s by Homi Jehangir Bhabha, the father of the country's nuclear programme.

Second, once fully operational, India will become only the second country after Russia to operate a commercial fast breeder reactor.

The Kalpakkam power project was formally approved in 2003 and it took 23 years to reach the second stage.

While several countries have developed or operated experimental fast reactors, specifically the USA, the UK, France, Japan, Germany and China, most of these programmes are currently shut down.

Fast breeder technology forms the vital link between India's current fleet of pressurised heavy water reactors, heavily dependent on imported enriched uranium, and the future deployment of thorium-based reactors, leveraging the country's abundant thorium resources for long-term clean energy generation. Nuclear power contributes about % of India's electricity from 8.78 gigawatts of installed capacity.

It will take some months before the PFBR at Kalpakkam produces electricity and reaches full capacity for commercial use. A number of experiments need to be conducted at low power, which have to be evaluated by the Atomic Energy Regulatory Board (AERB) for its go-ahead for commercial power operation.

India's three-stage atomic power programme envisages becoming independent of imports and achieving energy security through the use of thorium, of which the country has vast reserves. This is where the PFBR technology plays the role of a bridge between the current fleet of pressurised heavy water reactors using enriched uranium and the future deployment of thorium-based reactors for long-term clean energy generation targets.

India has a fleet of 18–20 pressurised heavy water reactors that use natural uranium as fuel and produce plutonium-239 (Pu-239) as a by-product in spent fuel, which has civilian as well as defence applications.

India's present installed nuclear power capacity is 8780 MW and the nuclear electricity generated during 2024–25 is 56681 million units, according to data from the Atomic Energy Department. In 2024–25, the share of nuclear power was about 3.1% in India's total electricity generation.

Indian consumer goods maker AWL Agri Business is grappling with a roughly 20% surge in some crude-linked input costs as the Middle East conflict drives up prices for fuel, chemicals and packaging materials, its CEO said.

The pressures reflect a broader industry trend, with peers such as bottled water maker Bisleri and Dove soapmaker Hindustan Unilever raising prices to counter higher conflict-linked input costs.

"Costs have gone up for us in terms of chemicals, packing material and coal, so that is something which remains a cause of concern even today," Shrikant Kanhere, AWL's managing director and CEO, told Reuters in an interview.

AWL, home of brands including Fortune cooking oil and Kohinoor rice, is adjusting prices in line with market movements, absorbing part of the increase while passing the rest on to consumers, Kanhere said, without giving details.

Input costs for some crude-linked materials have risen by about 20% since the conflict began, translating into a cost impact of roughly 25 to 50 basis points, he added.

Global oil prices have surged amid fears of supply disruptions. Brent crude has climbed from the low $70s a barrel before the Middle East conflict to above $110, market data show.

The company, which is cutting packaging and fuel use at its plants to limit the hit to profits, expects per-tonne margins to be broadly stable in fiscal 2027.

AWL is also expanding distribution and investing heavily in online channels and large-format grocers, which together posted nearly 50% growth last year, in a push to scale up volumes.

Kanhere forecast sales volume growth of 8% to 9% in fiscal 2027, nearly double last year's pace, with edible oils growing at a mid-single-digit rate and foods posting double-digit growth.

Bangladesh’s business climate is constrained by regulatory bottlenecks, policy inconsistency, weak trust, and institutional inefficiencies, undermining both investment potential and long-term investor confidence, analysts and top business leaders said today.

They made the remark at a dialogue on the investment climate and the upcoming national budget, organised by the Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce & Industry, Dhaka (MCCI), at its auditorium at Police Plaza in the capital.

At the event, M Masrur Reaz, chairman and CEO of Policy Exchange Bangladesh, said private investment has fallen, while foreign direct investment remains below 1 percent of GDP, far behind regional competitors.

“This slowdown comes at a critical juncture. With ambitions of reaching a $1 trillion economy and creating millions of jobs, the government’s targets hinge almost entirely on increased investment,” he said.

“The real challenge is not competition but market entry itself, as firms must be prepared for a decades-long commitment given operational hurdles—from licensing delays to compliance burdens—that can deter even established players,” said Zinnia Huq, chief financial officer of Unilever Bangladesh.

Bangladesh’s struggle to attract foreign direct investment (FDI) stems largely from a lack of trust and policy predictability, said Nuria Lopez, chairperson of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in Bangladesh.

She noted that despite the country’s strong potential, foreign investors remain hesitant due to an unfavourable business environment and the absence of a clear, consistent government vision.

“The root problem is that Bangladesh does not have the trust of investors,” she said, adding that policy inconsistency and regulatory uncertainty continue to undermine confidence.

Lopez pointed to growing concerns over Bangladesh’s future market access, particularly in the European Union, as the country approaches graduation from least developed country (LDC) status.

Unlike regional competitors such as Vietnam and India, Bangladesh has yet to secure effective free trade agreements, leaving investors unsure about long-term export prospects, she said.

Taxation is another major concern, she said, noting that compliant firms—especially multinationals—often bear a disproportionate burden, while others remain outside the tax net.

“This creates an uneven playing field and discourages new investment,” she added.

Barrister Margub Kabir of Margub Kabir and Associates emphasised that trust—central to any investment decision—rests heavily on how disputes are resolved.

“Bangladesh’s persistent weakness in contract enforcement, once ranked among the lowest globally, reflects a slow and overburdened judicial system,” he said.

Mahmud Hasan Khan, president of the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association, said efforts to improve the business environment must begin with fixing core infrastructure.

Farooq Ahmed, secretary general of the MCCI; Sumitra Kumar Mutsuddi, head of corporate at BSRM; and Sumaiya T Ahmed, head of sustainability at Pran-RFL Group, also addressed the event, among others.

Business leaders' hopes for a lighter tax burden in the upcoming national budget were effectively dashed yesterday (29 April) as the government rejected pleas for tax cuts for now. Instead, it assured removal of the systemic obstacles that have long stifled the ease of doing business.

The message from the government came during a pre-budget consultation jointly organised by the National Board of Revenue (NBR) and the Federation of Bangladesh Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FBCCI).

With the national budget set to be unveiled in June, business leaders raised a range of demands at a high-level meeting with government representatives, calling for tax reductions and the removal of various barriers to doing business to support trade and commerce under current conditions, while urging the government to take concrete steps to address these challenges.

Responding to the demands, Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury said, "We would like to provide relief in tax and VAT in these hard times, but we may not be able to do so in this budget. However, we will remove barriers to business."

He urged businesses to identify specific problems, adding, "Inform us about corruption at ports and all the obstacles to doing business. We will remove these within the next three months."

Highlighting the broader economic strain, the minister called on businesses to support the government in navigating the current crisis. "We are going through a difficult time, and everyone must understand that," he said, asking for cooperation at least for this budget cycle.

At the event, NBR Chairman Abdur Rahman Khan also cautioned that tax and VAT decisions may not meet business expectations, though he echoed assurances that efforts would be made to simplify doing business.

Businesses press for tax reforms

Leading business figures from various sectors outlined a range of challenges in their remarks at the meeting, highlighting the obstacles they face across industries.

The FBCCI called for "special priority" to create a business-friendly tax system by eliminating harassment and complexities in tax collection.

The apex business body demanded an increase in the tax-free income threshold for individuals, a reduction in corporate tax rates, and the abolition of the mandatory minimum tax on company turnover – which firms must pay even when incurring losses.

It also proposed a gradual withdrawal of advance income tax (AIT) and advance tax (AT) at the import stage, while suggesting measures to expand the overall tax base. In total, the FBCCI submitted 165 written proposals to the government ahead of the budget, which is expected to be announced in June by the BNP-led administration.

In his written statement, FBCCI Administrator Abdur Rahim Khan said reducing the cost of doing business, attracting and protecting investment, improving port capacity, ensuring balanced currency and tariff policies, lowering logistics costs, and strengthening governance and transparency in infrastructure – including power and energy – were essential.

Small industries under pressure

Business leaders also warned that small industries are under severe strain. Obaidur Rahman, president of the Bangladesh Aluminium Manufacturers Association, urged the government to step in.

"Our industries are shutting down. Please save these industries," he said.

Calling for a shift in tax policy, he added, "Increase direct taxes. Send officers to district and upazila levels – significant income tax can be collected from there. But we are pleading to save small industries."

Anwar-Ul Alam Chowdhury Parvez, president of the Bangladesh Chamber of Industries, presented data showing slowed growth across sectors due to global conflicts, energy shortages and other pressures. He argued that instead of raising taxes, the focus should be on widening the tax net.

"Businesses are questioning what benefits they receive in return for paying taxes," he said, adding that many also report harassment during tax collection.

Allegations of harassment

Imran Hossain, secretary general of the Bangladesh Restaurant Owners' Association, alleged that bureaucratic complexities are turning businesses into "systematic thieves".

"Enforcement actions disproportionately target those who pay VAT and taxes, while non-compliant businesses often go unchecked," he said.

He proposed lowering VAT rates and introducing a unified tax system, adding that enforcement drives against VAT-compliant restaurants had intensified immediately after discussions with the NBR.

"Administrative pressure and field-level harassment have made it increasingly difficult to run businesses. On one hand, there is pressure of increased VAT, and on the other, irregular enforcement drives. If this continues, we will have no option but to shut down our businesses," he warned.

Expressing frustration over the lack of a level playing field, he said, "Yes, I admit it – we are forced into dishonesty because the system does not treat everyone equally. How do we get out of this? This bureaucratic structure will never allow it."

He also criticised both bureaucrats and politicians, alleging that officials fail to establish effective systems while in office, only to acknowledge problems after retirement.

Other business leaders echoed concerns, calling for lower VAT and tax rates, reduced harassment by field officials, and stronger governance in the banking and financial sectors. They warned that without reform, it would be difficult to build a stable economic foundation.

The FBCCI also proposed strengthening the central bank as an independent regulator to ensure discipline in the banking sector, and reducing government borrowing from banks to avoid crowding out private sector credit.

However, the finance minister at the event said, "The shortfall in the banking sector is not something this government can resolve easily."

Highlighting the impact on businesses, he acknowledged that "due to problems in the banking sector, businesses are unable to repay their liabilities."

He added that he had informed the International Monetary Fund that businesses are facing a serious capital shortfall. Explaining the reasons, he said, "Because of currency depreciation and inflation, there has been a 50% erosion of capital."

Equal incentives for emerging export sectors

The minister also pledged to extend incentives similar to those enjoyed by the ready-made garment (RMG) sector to other promising export industries.

Currently, the RMG sector benefits from duty-free import of raw materials and back-to-back letters of credit against export orders – measures widely credited with driving its growth. The sector accounts for around 85% of Bangladesh's total exports.

Addressing concerns about misuse, he said, "If 10 out of 100 people misuse facilities, does that mean the remaining 90 should be deprived? We will open up facilities for promising sectors."

He acknowledged allegations that businesses operating under bonded warehouse facilities face harassment from customs officials, adding that cooperation from the private sector would be needed to address the issue.

War costs and budget pressures

The minister said the current government has inherited significant liabilities, including outstanding payments of Tk40,000 crore in the power sector.

He added that the government had spent nearly $4 billion (around Tk48,000 crore) due to the Middle East conflict.

In light of these pressures, Bangladesh has requested a two-year cushion from the IMF to stabilise the economy. "We have told the IMF that we need a two-year cushion. From the third year, the economy will take off," he said.

Case for a larger budget

Responding to criticism from economists over the government's plan to maintain a large budget, the finance minister argued that increased spending is necessary to stimulate growth.

"To generate growth in a low-level economy, improve citizen services, create demand and reduce poverty, we must invest in the economy," he said, adding that development spending would need to increase.

He acknowledged concerns over misuse of funds, noting that large budgets become problematic if money is siphoned abroad. "But if spending is of quality and yields returns, then such investment is justified," he said.

Commerce Minister Khandakar Abdul Muktadir stressed the need to balance business interests with state revenue. "We must look at both business and the national exchequer," he said. "How will the economy progress if the tax-to-GDP ratio does not increase?"

Bangladesh's investment climate is being vitiated by a mix of bureaucratic delays, policy uncertainty and rising business costs, making it harder for both local and foreign investors to expand operations and create jobs.

Experts say unless these longstanding barriers are addressed quickly, the country risks losing competitiveness and missing major investment opportunities.

Policy Exchange Bangladesh has identified eight major obstacles, with bureaucratic complexity and a restrictive regulatory framework topping the list.

Energy shortages, infrastructure bottlenecks, high tax pressure, weak institutional coordination and the absence of a clear investment strategy were also cited as major concerns at a policy dialogue in the capital on Wednesday.

The Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce and Industry (MCCI) and Policy Exchange Bangladesh jointly organised the meeting.

Policy Exchange Bangladesh Chairman and CEO Dr M Masrur Reaz presented the keynote paper titled "Improving the Investment Climate: Why It's Critical for New Government Priorities and the Upcoming National Budget."

In his presentation, Masrur Reaz said the country also faces the absence of a coordinated domestic and foreign investment strategy, which continues to weaken investor confidence. Newspapersubscriptions

He identified additional barriers including the lack of structured investment promotion, a gap between political commitments and implementation, and weak coordination between the public and private sectors.

He also pointed to limited coordination between the Prime Minister's Office and various ministries, the absence of diversified competitive sectors, leaving the economy heavily dependent on only five key sectors, and inadequate post-investment support or aftercare services.

Against this backdrop, Policy Exchange proposed a set of immediate reforms to strengthen investor confidence.

Masrur Reaz said the government can pursue seven priority reforms. Countrypolitics overview

These include formulating a comprehensive national investment policy, simplifying business registration procedures, addressing infrastructure and energy constraints, ensuring efficient use of economic zones, developing skilled human resources, promoting green investment, and establishing a modern legal framework for contract enforcement and dispute resolution.

BGMEA President Md Mahmud Hasan Khan attended the event as special guest, while EuroCham Chairperson Nuria López, corporate lawyer Barrister Margub Kabir, and Zinnia Huq, Chief Financial Officer (CFO) of Unilever Bangladesh, participated as panel speakers.

EuroCham Chairperson Nuria López said the absence of a free trade agreement (FTA) with the European Union, Bangladesh's largest export destination, is already affecting investor confidence.

"Do we have a free trade agreement with our major customer at this moment-the European Union? No," she said, noting that countries such as Vietnam and India have already secured similar agreements.

She warned that without preferential access to the EU market, Bangladesh risks losing competitiveness to regional peers offering more predictable trade frameworks.

"We need to have, we must have, we must start right now an FTA," López said. "If we don't have free trade access to our largest market, we don't have a horizon to invest." Economicanalysis reports

She also said uncertainty over future market access is influencing investment decisions.

"I have recently started a new business in the agro-processing sector, but I am uncertain about the future. I do not know whether I will be able to export to Europe on equal terms with competitors from countries that already enjoy free market access," she said.

López stressed that predictability is essential for attracting long-term investment, adding that Bangladesh currently lacks it.

"We don't have predictability. We don't know what's going to happen in the future," she said, questioning whether there is a clear and investor-friendly policy direction.

She linked the urgency of an EU FTA to Bangladesh's broader challenge in attracting foreign direct investment (FDI), saying policy uncertainty continues to undermine investor trust.

Addressing the event as special guest, BGMEA President Md Mahmud Hasan Khan said Bangladesh should expand export markets through bilateral agreements with countries such as South Africa, Brazil and Turkey.

He noted that around US$8 billion in new opportunities have emerged in the ready-made garment sector, with further potential for expansion. Bangladeshmarket analysis

However, he stressed that high tariffs in these markets make such agreements necessary.

"We are discussing this matter with the government," he said.

He also identified energy shortages as the most critical challenge for businesses.

"For entrepreneurs, energy is a greater concern than financial constraints," he said, adding that without resolving energy and infrastructure bottlenecks, financial support would have limited impact.

Unilever Bangladesh CFO Zinnia Huq said business registration and documentation processes in Bangladesh are extremely slow and time-consuming.

She pointed to weak coordination among government agencies, which reduces efficiency and delays business operations.

Despite a double taxation avoidance treaty, she said prior approval from the National Board of Revenue (NBR) is still required for dividend remittance, making the process unnecessarily complex. She also highlighted a lack of transparency in audit procedures.

Barrister Margub Kabir said dispute resolution is central to investor confidence, but Bangladesh continues to struggle with a slow judicial system.

He cited the example of a Japanese company operating in Bangladesh for 25 years, while a contractual dispute dating back to 2018 remains unresolved.

"There is no lack of laws in Bangladesh; the issue is making them simpler and the process faster," he said.

Kabir added that foreign investors generally prefer arbitration to avoid lengthy court proceedings. However, even after arbitration awards, enforcement through courts faces similar delays.

He called for specialised commercial courts, faster enforcement mechanisms, and judges with commercial expertise to ensure timely resolution of disputes.

MCCI Secretary General Farooq Ahmed delivered the welcome address.

Listed multinational companies (MNCs) in Bangladesh had another difficult year in 2025, with most failing to claw back profits eroded by inflation and shrinking consumer demand.

Of the 13 MNCs listed in the stock market, 11 follow a December fiscal year-end. Ten have published results so far.

As per the published data, three saw profits rise in 2025 but remain below the previous year’s level, four hit five-year lows, and two incurred the highest losses in their operational history in the country. Only one, Robi Axiata, posted record profits.

“The economic situation was the main factor,” said Shahidul Islam, CEO of VIPB Asset Management Company, who has tracked the companies’ performances for years as a major shareholder with billions of taka invested.

Inflationary pressure raised raw material costs, but companies could not pass them on to consumers whose demand had already shrunk, he said.

Analysis of financial reports shows that the damage was broad. Most companies saw sales growth slow last year. Four -- Grameenphone, Bata Shoe, Heidelberg Cement, and Linde BD -- saw sales fall outright.

Among the companies, British American Tobacco’s (BATBC) profit fell 67 percent to Tk 584 crore in 2025, from Tk 1,788 crore in 2023, the highest level in the last five years. The figure was Tk 1,750.68 crore in 2024.

The tobacco company said, “2025 was marked by a challenging socioeconomic and geopolitical landscape characterised by inflationary pressures, currency devaluation, and constrained consumer purchasing power.”

The global economic slowdown and rising raw material costs added further complexity to the operating environment. The top two segments of the company recorded a volume decline of approximately 10 percent, it added.

RAK Ceramics posted its highest-ever loss of Tk 39 crore last year, a reversal from Tk 90 crore in profit in 2021.

Singer Bangladesh also incurred a huge loss of Tk 224 crore , the largest in its recent history.

Heidelberg Cement’s profit more than halved from its 2021 peak of Tk 47 crore.

The country’s largest telecom operator, Grameenphone’s profit dropped 18.5 percent year-on-year. The company attributed the decline to economic weakness and political uncertainty following the July 2024 uprising.

“The prolonged political uncertainty weakened business and investor confidence, while persistent inflation subdued job creation, and declining household purchasing power collectively constrained overall market demand,” it said.

Unilever Consumer Care and LafargeHolcim remained profitable but 18 percent and 14 percent below their 2023 levels, respectively.

Linde BD’s profit collapsed to Tk 34 crore after an anomalous Tk 642 crore in 2024, which was inflated by a one-off asset sale.

Robi Axiata bucked the trend, with profits rising 33 percent year-on-year to Tk 937 crore in 2025.

Marico and Berger Paints, which follow a March fiscal year-end, were excluded from the analysis.

The outlook for MNCs, Shahidul said, has darkened sharply in recent months.

A few months ago, conditions looked promising, but the US-Israel war on Iran has introduced new uncertainty.

“Now, the outlook depends on the war, thus the oil price. The overall economic situation may worsen if oil prices rise and the war is prolonged. It will impact the performance of the companies,” he added.

Bangladesh’s business climate is being held back by regulatory bottlenecks, inconsistent policies, weak trust, and institutional inefficiencies, which are reducing investment potential and weakening long-term investor confidence, experts said at a dialogue yesterday.

The remarks were made at a discussion titled “Business climate dialogue on improving the investment climate: why it is critical for the new government priorities the upcoming national budget”, organised by the Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce & Industry, Dhaka (MCCI) at its auditorium at Police Plaza in Gulshan.

“The real challenge is not competition but entering the market itself. Firms must be ready for a long-term commitment because operational hurdles -- from licensing delays to compliance burdens -- can discourage even established companies,” said Zinnia Huq, chief financial officer of Unilever Bangladesh.

She said regulatory approvals often take months due to weak coordination among agencies, which leads to conflicting requirements, such as dividend remittance rules clashing with tax approvals.

She added that legal risks remain high as cases move through multiple channels, reducing predictability.

Huq further said that labour regulations are uncertain because interpretations often change and are sometimes applied retrospectively, making business planning difficult.

Tax administration, she added, sometimes raises large initial claims against compliant firms, which are later adjusted after review.

Nuria Lopez of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in Bangladesh said the main issue is not a lack of opportunity but weak investor confidence, adding that an unfriendly business environment and unclear policy direction continue to discourage foreign investment.

She also said that taxation places additional pressure on businesses, as authorities often rely heavily on compliant firms, especially multinationals, creating an uneven playing field.

Sector-specific lobbying limits competition and makes it harder for new firms to enter the market, she added.

Lopez further said that institutional weaknesses, energy shortages, and the lack of a clear investment roadmap are increasing uncertainty, warning that Bangladesh could fall behind regional competitors.

Margub Kabir of Margub Kabir and Associates said trust is central to investment decisions and depends largely on dispute resolution.

He said Bangladesh remains weak in enforcing contracts and has previously ranked among the lowest globally due to a slow and overloaded judicial system.

Kabir also said arbitration, which foreign investors often prefer as it helps avoid court delays, offers limited benefit. This is because enforcing arbitral awards still requires going through the same lengthy court process, which reduces their effectiveness.

He added that the main problem is not a lack of laws but weak implementation, stressing the need to simplify procedures, appoint specialised commercial judges, and introduce faster enforcement systems.

Mahmud Hasan Khan, president of the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA), said improving the business environment must begin with core infrastructure reforms.

He said a reliable energy supply is the most urgent need, especially for industries moving into higher-value production. He added that man-made fibre manufacturing requires uninterrupted power, as even short outages can stop production completely.

He also pointed to inefficiencies in key logistics routes, including the Dhaka-Chattogram highway and port operations, which are increasing costs and reducing competitiveness.

M Masrur Reaz of Policy Exchange Bangladesh said Bangladesh’s past growth has been driven largely by private sector investment, which helped manufacturing rise from 8 per cent of GDP decades ago to 25 per cent today.

However, he said this momentum is now slowing, with private investment declining and foreign direct investment remaining below 1 per cent of GDP, far behind regional peers.

He said this slowdown comes at a critical time, as the country aims to become a $1 trillion economy and create millions of jobs. These goals depend heavily on higher investment.

He added that the upcoming budget will be an important policy signal.

Reaz also highlighted practical challenges, including weak logistics, low productivity, energy shortages, and limited export diversification, which are worsened by fragmented reforms and poor coordination across sectors.

Farooq Ahmed, secretary general of MCCI, Sumitra Kumar Mutsuddi, head of corporate at BSRM, and Sumaiya T Ahmed, head of sustainability at Pran-RFL Group, also spoke at the event.

The Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) has banned three audit firms and four auditors from auditing listed companies for several years after they failed to audit the financial reports of two listed firms properly.

In separate orders issued on April 23, the commission banned Mahfel Huq & Co Chartered Accountants, Ata Khan & Co Chartered Accountants, and Shiraz Khan Basak & Co Chartered Accountants. It also banned four auditors who are current or former partners of these firms.

The action comes amid long-standing criticism that auditors often go unpunished despite failing to detect irregularities in listed firms. As a result of inaccurate financial reporting, many investors were misled into buying shares and later suffered significant losses.

All three audit firms failed to properly audit the financial reports of Ring Shine Textiles for three separate years, according to BSEC.

During the pre-IPO period, Ring Shine Textiles distributed shares free of cost through a private offer, which was described as a clear act of forgery. The company also issued stock dividends to shareholders who had not paid for their shares. These allotments increased its paid-up capital without any actual money being received.

Later, in 2019, the company raised Tk 150 crore from the stock market to buy machinery and repay bank loans.

However, none of these irregularities was reported by the auditors.

MAHFEL HUQ & CO

Mahfel Huq & Co was banned for three years for failing to properly audit the financial statements of Ring Shine Textiles for the year which ended on June 30, 2018.

The audit did not provide reasonable assurance that the financial statements showed a true and fair view of the company’s financial position and performance, as required under auditing and reporting standards.

An enquiry committee formed by the BSEC found major irregularities in key items such as assets, retained earnings, and net profit. It also found that the firm issued an unmodified audit opinion without obtaining sufficient and appropriate audit evidence.

As a result, BSEC barred the firm from auditing any listed securities for three years from the date of the order.

The firm was also banned for one year for failing to properly audit Fareast Islami Life Insurance for 2018. A special audit found material irregularities, inadequate disclosures, and deficiencies in the financial reports, leading to the suspension.

In addition, Md Abdus Sattar, a former partner of the firm, was prohibited from auditing any listed securities issuer for five years.

Md Abu Kaiser, another former partner, was barred for two years.

ATA KHAN & CO

Ata Khan & Co faced action after a BSEC inquiry committee found material irregularities and anomalies in key financial statement items, including the assets and net profit of Ring Shine Textiles for the year ended June 30, 2019.

The firm issued an unmodified audit opinion without obtaining sufficient and appropriate audit evidence to support the reported figures.

It, along with its engagement partner, was found jointly and severally responsible for failing to conduct the audit in line with securities laws, resulting in financial statements that did not present a true and fair view of the company’s position and performance.

As a result, Ata Khan & Co was barred from inclusion in the BSEC auditors’ panel for three years, while Maqbul Ahmed, a partner of the firm, was barred from the panel for five years.

SHIRAZ KHAN BASAK & CO

Shiraz Khan Basak & Co audited Ring Shine Textiles for the year ended June 30, 2020, with Ramendra Nath Basak serving as the engagement partner, although he was not enlisted in the BSEC auditors’ panel.

A BSEC inquiry committee found material irregularities and anomalies in key financial statement items. The firm issued an unmodified audit opinion without obtaining sufficient and appropriate audit evidence to support the figures in the financial statements.

The audit failed to ensure that the financial report presented a true and fair view in line with International Financial Reporting Standards. The firm and its engagement partner were found to have failed to comply with securities laws.

As a result, Shiraz Khan Basak & Co was made ineligible for inclusion in the BSEC auditors’ panel for three years, while Ramendra Nath Basak was barred from the panel for five years.

The Daily Star emailed all the audit firms on Monday, but received no response before the report went to print. It also tried to contact Wasequl H Reagan, a partner of Mahfel Huq & Co, through phone calls and text messages, but he did not respond.

A shortage of soybean oil that began in early March shows little sign of easing, pushing retail prices above the government fixed rate, with customers now paying up to Tk 15 more per litre.

The government has set the price of a one-litre bottle at Tk 195. However, retailers across the country are charging between Tk 200 and Tk 210.

Small shopkeepers, supermarket chains and wholesalers say they are receiving less than half of their usual daily demand for the cooking staple, most of which Bangladesh imports.

Refiners have not said clearly whether they have reduced supply. However, official data show soybean oil imports fell sharply in the January-April period compared with the same period last year.

Refiners say global prices and freight costs have increased, but authorities have yet to approve their proposal to raise local rates. They say it is no longer possible to import and sell the product at a loss.

Nurul Alam Sikder, a shopkeeper in Dhaka’s Pallabi area, said he last received bottled soybean oil from dealers about three weeks ago. Dealers are saying that there is a supply shortage, so they are unable to provide it.

Firoj Alam, manager of retail chain Daily Shopping, which has 115 outlets nationwide, said bottled soybean oil has not met demand since the beginning of April.

Currently, only about 30 percent to 40 percent of the required amount is being supplied, said Alam.

Speaking on condition of anonymity, a senior official at another supermarket chain said importers have failed to supply enough bottled soybean oil since the last week of February. At present, only 25 percent to 30 percent of the required supply is available.

The official said many customers are returning empty-handed when they come to buy oil. They are expressing frustration with them over not being able to get it.

Abu Bakar Siddique, an edible oil wholesaler at Karwan Bazar, one of Dhaka’s largest kitchen markets, said the squeeze has also cut dealer commissions because the maximum retail price has not increased.

DEALERS CUT BACK SUPPLIES

During a visit to kitchen markets in Chattogram yesterday, it was found that 1 litre and 2 litre bottles were available at some shops, while 3 litre and 5 litre bottles were largely missing from shelves.

Retailers were selling bottled soybean oil at Tk 5 to Tk 7 above the maximum retail price printed on the packaging. Traders say they are receiving less than 20 percent of their usual supply.

Abul Hashem, a retailer in the port city, said limited deliveries from distributors have disrupted sales and forced them to ration stock.

Hashem said retailers are not receiving edible oil in line with demand. Dealers said their commission has also been reduced.

“As a result, we are buying oil at Tk 1 to Tk 2 higher than the maximum retail price printed on the bottle. If we do not add at least Tk 5 per litre, we incur losses,” he added.

In Sylhet, retailers reported a similar picture.

Ashis Das, a retailer at Bagbari area, said, “Dealers have stopped providing supplies for over a week. Wholesalers in Kalighat are also almost out of stock, so we are having to run our shops without oil.”

Another retailer, Kapil Ray, said, “No company has provided oil for several days. We have managed to source small quantities of oil from a wholesaler at the printed MRP. I am selling these to my regular customers without any profit just to maintain our relationship.”

A wholesaler in the same area, who asked not to be named, said supplies from the company depot are not even close to 20 percent of demand.

He said, “After paying the price in advance, we received only 300 litres of oil last Thursday. Today [Tuesday], we will receive another supply of 300 litres, but now with a condition to purchase an equal amount of bottled water.”

At Shaheb Bazar in Rajshahi, shopkeeper Sumon Hossain described the edible oil market situation as “very bad”.

“There is almost no supply now. Prices have also increased. We have to buy a two-litre bottle for Tk 388 and sell it for Tk 390. That is only Tk 2 profit on a two-litre bottle,” he said.

“On top of that, we have to send our own people to collect the oil from dealers because they do not deliver it. There are transport costs. Retailers are actually facing losses,” said Hossain.

Commerce ministry data show soybean oil imports fell sharply in the January-April period compared with the same period last year.

Soybean oil imports dropped from 4.48 lakh tonnes in January-April last year to just 2.61 lakh tonnes this year.

Importers say they cut shipments because domestic prices have not been adjusted in line with international rates. Selling at a loss is unsustainable, they say, despite repeated appeals to the current and previous interim government for a price increase.

World Bank commodities data show soybean oil sold at $1,154 per tonne in January. The price rose to $1,282 in February and to $1,482 in March.

The country’s annual demand for edible oil stands at 24 lakh tonnes, around 90 percent of which is met through imports, according to the Bangladesh Trade and Tariff Commission.

Mohammad Dabirul Islam Didar, head of finance and accounts at Bangladesh Edible Oil Limited, which markets Rupchanda brand soybean oil, said the company continues to sell bottled soybean oil at the maximum retail price and does not charge above it.

He said rising import and supply chain costs have put the company under pressure. It has applied to the Ministry of Commerce for a price adjustment to help maintain supply chain stability.

Didar said it is not possible to sustain operations at a loss. Discussions have taken place over possible VAT adjustments, but no action has been taken.

The Daily Star tried to contact Biswajit Saha, director of corporate and regulatory affairs at City Group, which markets the Teer brand of soybean oil, for comment but received no response.

A widening revenue shortfall is driving the government toward heavy bank borrowing, raising concerns over tighter credit availability for the private sector and mounting fiscal pressure in the coming years, the Bangladesh Economic Association (BEA) said.

“If the revenue gap persists, the trend [of government bank borrowing] could deepen further in FY2026-27, amplifying a ‘crowding out’ effect where government demand for funds limits lending space for businesses,” said the association.

The economists’ body raised the issue yesterday during a pre-budget discussion with the National Board of Revenue (NBR) officials at its headquarters in Dhaka.

BEA estimates that government borrowing from banks may reach around Tk 1 lakh crore in FY26. The amount could rise to Tk 1.1 to 1.3 lakh crore in FY27, with the deficit remaining at 4.5 to 5 percent of GDP.

As of February in the current fiscal year, the government borrowed Tk 88,309 crore from the banking system and Tk 4,033 crore from non-banking sources, according to Bangladesh Bank data.

The BEA also said the upcoming budget will face pressure from political commitments, including pay-scale adjustments, family card programmes, agricultural support, and social safety-net expansion.

“Ensuring food security and stabilising prices of essential goods will further strain fiscal space,” said Mohammad Masud Alam, member of the BEA.

He also warned that global energy market volatility, especially rising tensions in the Middle East, could push up oil prices, increase import costs, and add pressure on foreign exchange reserves, posing additional risks to macroeconomic stability.

Speaking about raising revenue, he suggested urgently designing a comprehensive framework to bring Bangladesh’s fast-growing digital economy under the tax net to boost the country’s tax-to-GDP ratio.

At the event, Mahbub Ullah, convener of the BEA, said the NBR should take stronger action against tax evasion in the real estate sector, in cases of wealth tax, and cases of underreporting family and personal wealth.

In response, NBR chairman Md Abdur Rahman Khan said they are working on this issue.

Ahad Al Azad Munem, research associate of the Policy Research Institute (PRI) of Bangladesh, said that currently, about 28 percent of total revenue comes from customs or trade taxes.

“Such a high dependence on trade taxes is not considered international best practice.”

The NBR chairman said that since the country’s overall revenue collection is low, whenever any reform or change is proposed in major revenue sources, the decision-makers become hesitant.

“This reality must be acknowledged.”

The Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) urged the NBR to ensure tax justice, protect low-income groups, and take stronger measures to prevent tax evasion.

The Anti-Tobacco Media Alliance (ATMA) has proposed merging the lower and medium cigarette tiers and setting the price of a 10-stick pack at Tk 100, Tk 150 for the higher tier, and Tk 200 for the premium category.

It also recommended adding a specific excise duty of Tk 4 per pack.

According to their proposal, this could generate around Tk 44,000 crore in additional revenue compared to the current fiscal year and potentially prevent nearly 400,000 premature deaths in the long term.

Business Initiative Leading Development (BUILD) proposed that the government provide clear direction about the separation of the tax policy and tax administration.

Besides, the NBR should look into the gap between the registered companies and actual return submission numbers, it said.

The Bangladesh Society for the Change and Advocacy Nexus (B-SCAN), a volunteer organisation, demanded raising the tax-free income for differently abled people to up to Tk 6 lakh from the existing Tk 5 lakh.