The National Board of Revenue (NBR) fell short of its nine-month tax collection target by nearly Tk 1 lakh crore, leaving it needing to mobilise over Tk 2.60 lakh crore in the final quarter of fiscal year 2025-26 (FY26).

Provisional data released yesterday showed collections of Tk 2.87 lakh crore during July-March, an 11 percent rise year-on-year, but well below the pace required to meet the full-year target of Tk 5.54 lakh crore.

Analysts say it is highly unrealistic to expect that the board will succeed in collecting nearly half of the full-year target in three months.

The board has consistently missed its annual target every year for over a decade. Yet in late November last year, the interim government revised the target upward from Tk 4.99 lakh crore, following strong first-quarter collections.

The revenue weakness is playing out against a deteriorating economic backdrop.

The country’s GDP growth slowed to 3.03 percent in the second quarter of FY26, down from 3.53 percent in the same period last year. Defaulted loans in the banking sector have reached Tk 5.45 lakh crore as of December 2025.

Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury told parliament this month that the tax-to-GDP ratio has fallen from around 11 percent to below 7 percent, and that businesses are “in bad shape.”

More recently, the impact of the US-Israel war on Iran has been draining the state funds as the government was forced to buy fuel oils at high prices. Bangladesh imports about 95 percent of its energy, and state agencies have increasingly been forced onto the volatile spot market.

“The mounting costs are bleeding the exchequer,” the minister said on the sidelines of the IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington last week, citing nearly $2 billion in additional energy import costs following supply disruptions.

“On top of that, the tax-to-GDP (ratio) is not increasing because of business stress, the businesses are in bad shape,” he said, adding that if businesses do not recover, tax receipts will not improve.

He said the government has sought budget support from development partners and is pursuing structural fixes. It has prepared an action plan targeting a trillion-dollar economy by 2034, built around investment, employment and macroeconomic stability.

Amid consistent revenue shortfall, the government has turned sharply to borrowing. Net deficit financing reached Tk 1.05 lakh crore during July-February, up 67 percent from Tk 63,040 crore in the same period last year. Of that, Tk 88,309 crore came from the banking system.

Zaidi Sattar, chairman of the Policy Research Institute (PRI) and head of the National Taskforce on Tax Restructuring, said fiscal space has effectively closed.

“The gap between current expenditure and revenue means there is little to no surplus available to support development spending,” he said, adding that the Annual Development Programme (ADP) will likely depend almost entirely on deficit financing in the upcoming budget.

He warned that domestic borrowing carries serious risks. “It creates serious challenges, including fuelling inflation and potentially crowding out private sector investment,” he said.

Without fundamental reform in revenue administration, any substantial increase in collections is “almost impossible”.

Abdur Razzaque, chairman of Research and Policy Integration for Development (RAPID), said weak imports will further dampen revenue in the final quarter.

“If the government depends heavily on banks, it will affect credit flow to the private sector,” he said, warning that without revenue growth, more extreme measures such as money printing could not be ruled out.

Describing the broader pattern, Razzaque said, “The revenue target is not binding, it’s aspirational. We set targets and repeatedly fail to meet them. We are stuck in a Catch-22.”

“Big budget, big revenue deficit, and the NBR failing to raise revenue -- this is the typical Bangladesh story,” he added, noting that despite talk of reforms, “we are not seeing the momentum or a firm commitment.”

He mentioned the IMF’s recent decision to withhold a loan instalment, citing that the country has failed to implement agreed reforms in the revenue and banking sectors.

This decision by the multilateral lender adds to the country’s pressure. “It sends a signal about reform commitment, and other development partners take such signals seriously,” Razzaque said.

Within the July-March figures, VAT from domestic activity was the largest contributor at 38 percent of total collection, rising 13.66 percent year-on-year to Tk 1.09 lakh crore. Direct taxes accounted for 33.5 percent, climbing 11.25 percent to Tk 98,501 crore, while import tariffs grew more modestly at 7.77 percent to Tk 80,223 crore.

Facing mounting pressure, the NBR is eyeing structural changes for next year. Speaking at a pre-budget discussion earlier this month, NBR Chairman Md Abdur Rahman Khan pledged to strengthen enforcement to curb tax evasion and gradually reduce existing tax exemptions aiming to raise revenue collections.

He informed that the board is considering a range of measures to strengthen revenue collection in the upcoming fiscal year 2026-27 (FY27), including the reintroduction of a wealth tax, a new inheritance tax, higher rates for the ultra-rich, and a rationalisation of existing tax exemptions.

“We are exploring the possibility of reintroducing a wealth tax,” Khan said at the event, noting that Bangladesh had such a levy from 1963 until it was abolished in 1999.

A committee has been formed to examine the matter.

Khan added that the NBR is weighing the introduction of an inheritance tax, at least on a limited scale, with a focus on high-value property transfers.

On tax exemptions, Khan signalled a gradual shift away from the status quo. “We are committed to gradually phasing them out and bringing beneficiaries into the regular tax regime.”

The NBR also plans to raise the top marginal income tax rate for ultra-rich individuals from 30 to 35 percent, a measure tentatively set for FY28.

More immediately, he said the NBR is considering raising the tax rate for individuals earning over Tk 1 crore annually by around five percentage points from FY27.

Commuters in Dhaka and across the country are being forced to pay increased bus fares despite no official announcement regarding fare adjustments following the recent increase in fuel prices.

This unregulated spike has triggered widespread frustration, often leading to heated altercations between conductors and passengers, with reports of passengers being forcibly offloaded for protesting the hikes.

Passengers said buses are charging an additional Tk5 to Tk10 for short distance travel, while for long-distance, some operators are demanding Tk200 to Tk250 above the usual rate.

They also said a significant portion of the city's buses operate on CNG, but fares are being hiked based on diesel price hike, raising questions about the legitimacy of the adjustments.

Shamim Hossain, who regularly travels on the Rangpur-Jaldhaka route, said the fare was previously Tk95 but has now increased to Tk100, with transport workers citing higher fuel prices.

Meanwhile, visits to bus terminals found that fares on the Dhaka-Moulvibazar route have increased from Tk570 to Tk620. Passenger Nur Nabi Mostafa said buses on the Dhaka to Cox's Bazar, Chattogram and Sylhet routes are charging an additional Tk100 to Tk200.

The Bangladesh Road Transport Authority (BRTA) is responsible for determining the fares for non-AC buses and minibuses. As per official regulations, the fare for long-distance buses is fixed at Tk2.12 per kilometer.

In the Dhaka metropolitan area, the rates are Tk2.42 per km for buses and Tk2.32 per km for minibuses. However, passengers said these rates are rarely followed.

Back in August 2022, the government increased the price of diesel by 42% to Tk114 per liter. Consequently, bus fares were raised by BRTA to a maximum of Tk0.40 per kilometer. However, diesel prices were later reduced in three phases to Tk100 per litre, but fares were not lowered.

Transport operators said the fare structures fixed in 2022 are no longer commercially viable. They cited rising operational costs driven by currency depreciation and the soaring prices of spare parts.

According to passenger welfare groups, transport owners failed to implement either of these reductions.

Md Mozammel Haque Chowdhury, secretary general of Bangladesh Jatri Kalyan Samity, told the media that some transport owners are raising fares before any formal decision, putting pressure on passengers. He urged a participatory process to set fair fares and proposed a Tk 0.15 per kilometre increase.

Amid the situation, Prime Minister's Adviser for Information and Broadcasting Zahed Ur Rahman said the government is working to rationalise transport fares in alignment with fuel price changes. Speaking at a briefing yesterday (21 April), he said that discussions are ongoing to reach a balanced decision.

The government on Saturday raised diesel prices to Tk115 per litre, octane to Tk140, and petrol to Tk135, marking increases of Tk15 per litre for diesel, Tk20 for octane, and Tk 19 for petrol.

The next day negotiations between transport operators and the BRTA hit a deadlock, as owners demanded a comprehensive fare hike reflecting broader economic pressures, while the regulator insisted on capping increases strictly to rising fuel costs.

Stocks staged a moderate recovery today (21 April) as bargain hunters returned to the Dhaka bourse, lifting the benchmark index after two consecutive sessions of decline, although lingering geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continued to cap stronger gains.

The DSEX, the broad index of the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE), rose 24 points to settle at 5,257, while the blue-chip DS30 index advanced 4 points to close at 1,984. Market breadth turned positive, with 215 issues advancing against 108 decliners, reflecting renewed investor participation across sectors. Turnover also picked up momentum, jumping 13% to Tk929 crore, indicating improved trading activity.

According to EBL Securities, the market rebound was largely driven by opportunistic investors taking positions in beaten-down stocks at attractive valuations. The session began on a positive note with active participation from both buyers and sellers, but sustained buying interest throughout the day helped the market close firmly in the green, offsetting intermittent selling pressure.

The improved participation suggests cautious optimism among investors, who are gradually returning to the market amid expectations of economic recovery. However, analysts noted that the lack of any near-term resolution to ongoing Middle East tensions continues to weigh on sentiment, preventing a stronger rally. The geopolitical uncertainty has disrupted the market's earlier recovery trajectory, which had been supported by domestic political stability.

Sector-wise, trading activity was dominated by engineering stocks, which accounted for 16.1% of total turnover, followed by textile and general insurance sectors. The sectoral performance remained mixed, with life insurance, IT and general insurance posting notable gains, while cement, financial institutions and mutual funds experienced slight corrections.

Among individual stocks, City Bank, Acme Pesticides, Dominage Steel, Summit Alliance Port and Khan Brothers PP Woven Bag led the turnover chart, highlighting investor focus on both financial and manufacturing scrips.

On the gainers' side, BD Lamps, Nahee Aluminum, Samata Leather, Agni Systems and Ring Shine Textiles recorded strong price appreciation, while International Leasing, FAS Finance, Peoples Leasing, IFIC Bank First Mutual Fund and Shurwid Industries were among the major losers.

Meanwhile, the Chittagong Stock Exchange also ended the session higher, with its key indices posting modest gains, although turnover remained relatively low at Tk33.29 crore.

Ring Shine Textiles, a "Z" category company listed on the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE), has decided to take an interest-free loan from its sister concern, Lark Textiles, to repay its high-interest bank liabilities.

The decision was approved during a board meeting held on Monday and subsequently disclosed on the DSE website today (21 April).

Following the disclosure, Ring Shine's share price jumped 8.82% to close at Tk3.70.

Under the plan, Ring Shine will borrow Tk9.5 crore from Lark Textiles to settle outstanding dues with Eastern Bank Limited. The loan will carry a 10-year tenure, with repayments scheduled to begin in 2027 through ten equal annual instalments.

Ring Shine management hopes that replacing high-interest bank debt with interest-free funds will significantly reduce its interest burden and bolster its net income.

The company also noted that it has secured certain financial concessions from the bank under a debt rescheduling facility.

The implementation of this plan remains subject to shareholder approval, which the company intends to seek through an upcoming extraordinary general meeting (EGM) or annual general meeting (AGM).

The development comes as Ring Shine continues to grapple with severe financial distress. Since its 2019 listing, the company has declared dividends only in its debut year, failing to reward shareholders over the past six years.

The company's track record has also been marred by regulatory controversies. An earlier probe by the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) uncovered major irregularities in its initial public offering (IPO), where a substantial number of shares were allotted without actual payment. Those shares were later sold, causing significant losses for general investors.

These beneficiaries later offloaded their shares, leaving general investors to face substantial losses.

Currently, Ring Shine is struggling with a mounting debt burden and poor operational performance.

Its last disclosed financial report for the January–March of FY26 quarter showed a staggering loss of over Tk46 crore.

Textile millers are suffering mounting losses as more than a dozen troubled banks have failed to settle overdue payments against local back-to-back letters of credit (LCs), leaving thousands of crores of taka in accepted bills unpaid for years.

Around Tk3,000 crore to Tk4,000 crore in overdue payments has accumulated over the past five years as banks failed to honour accepted bills after maturity, according to bankers, despite clear obligations under the Guidelines for Foreign Exchange Transactions 2018.

The unpaid bills relate to local back-to-back LCs, under which garment exporters buy yarn, fabric and other raw materials from local suppliers on the strength of export orders received from foreign buyers. Once a bank accepts a bill submitted by the local supplier, it becomes legally bound to settle the payment on the maturity date, usually within 120 days.

However, many banks have failed to do so even years after accepting the bills.

A back-to-back LC, also known as a local LC, is a financing mechanism where a master LC from a foreign buyer acts as collateral for a second, separate LC issued to a local supplier. Local LCs specifically facilitate sourcing raw materials from domestic suppliers for export-oriented industries, crucial in Bangladesh for garment manufacturing, often settled in local currency rather than dollars.

Banks' obligation

Speaking to The Business Standard, Mohammad Shahriar Siddiqui, Bangladesh Bank assistant spokesperson and director, said there is no provision for non-payment against accepted bills.

He explained that the central bank typically clears overdue payments by deducting the relevant amount from the commercial bank's account maintained with the Bangladesh Bank. However, in cases where document disputes arise, the central bank resolves them on a case-by-case basis upon appeal, he said.

"While some overdue payments exist with troubled banks, the central bank has explicitly instructed them to settle these liabilities immediately," Shahriar said.

This follows an earlier circular issued on 26 October 2022, in which the Bangladesh Bank noted that some banks were failing to follow settlement instructions, thereby disrupting foreign exchange operations.

Under that directive, banks were strictly ordered to settle all payments for both local and foreign LCs upon maturity. The circular also warned that failure to comply would lead to the cancellation of Authorised Dealer (AD) licences and disciplinary action against the officers responsible.

Overdue for years

TBS found numerous cases in which banks accepted documents from suppliers, including invoices and bills of lading, but then failed to make payment years after the maturity date.

Prosanta Kumer Das, manager of Ahmed Group, said the group has around $15 million, equivalent to nearly Tk200 crore, outstanding against accepted bills with several banks.

"When a bank accepts the bill, the liability shifts entirely to the lender," he said.

"In the case of foreign LCs, banks never delay payment. Even if the customer fails to pay, the bank settles the bill from its own funds. But they are not following the same practice for local LCs."

Prosanta said banks are supposed to create forced loans in the name of their exporter clients and use those funds to settle accepted local LC bills.

"Our operations have been suffering because of the long delays. We cannot repay the loans that we took to import raw materials, and our daily operations have been disrupted," he added.

Bank Asia has more than 400 such overdue cases with different banks, involving nearly $16 million, according to the bank.

Sohail RK Hussain, managing director of Bank Asia, said delayed payment against accepted bills has become common in recent years.

"In the case of foreign LC payments, the Bangladesh Bank immediately intervenes and settles the dues by deducting money from the banks' accounts held with the central bank," he said.

"The same intervention is needed for local LCs because at least 15 troubled banks are unable to make payments."

He said Bank Asia had recently sent reminder letters to two troubled banks to settle overdue accepted bills of their clients and was considering legal action against banks that continued to default.

The Bangladesh Textile Mills Association, the representative body for the country's textile entrepreneurs, does not have recent statistics on the total amount of funds currently stuck in this manner.

However, an official from the organisation noted that as of the last available data in November, the amount pending with banks stood at approximately $90 million.

How textile millers suffer

Industry leaders said the growing defaults have weakened Bangladesh's backward linkage industry for the garment sector, with textile mills struggling to repay loans, pay workers and continue operations.

Md Mosharaf Hossain, managing director of Mosharaf Composite Textile Mills, said around $2 million owed to his company remained unpaid, with some payments overdue for as long as five years. "Those payments should have been settled within 120 days of acceptance."

Most of the money is stuck with Islami Bank Bangladesh, Premier Bank, Agrani Bank and Exim Bank, he said.

Md Anwarul Islam, managing director and CEO of Agrani Bank, said banks have no scope to leave overdue payments unsettled for an extended period. "However, we will look into the matter if any such case persists," he added.

Despite repeated attempts, officials from Islami Bank Bangladesh, Exim Bank, and Premier Bank could not be reached for comment.

Documents seen by TBS show that one supplier delivered yarn worth around $1,92,000 in mid-2021 against six separate LCs opened by New Town Knitwear Company Limited. Four of the LCs were issued through Islami Bank Bangladesh and two through Exim Bank, yet the supplier has still not received the money nearly five years after the maturity date.

Similarly, payment for goods worth about $1,20,000 supplied to Optimum Fashions Wear Limited against three LCs has remained overdue with two banks for about 18 months.

Two other firms based in Narayanganj – Abanti Colour Tex Limited and Crony Apparels Limited – have failed to receive payment worth $4,72,000 and $35,000, respectively, even after two years.

Officials of the company said legal notices had already been served on the institutions concerned and on the relevant bank officials.

Furthermore, after repeated reminders over the past few years went unheeded, the firm has filed lawsuits against nine companies, to which raw materials were supplied, as well as the relevant bank officials.

TBS has obtained several documents related to the lawsuits and legal notices issued by the institution.

Mosharaf Hossain said, "Because we are not receiving payment on time, we cannot repay our bank loans," he said. "As a result, we have to pay additional interest. At the same time, a shortage of working capital is making it difficult to pay workers' wages and allowances."

"The same bank that cannot pay what it owes us is charging interest on our loans," he added.

Mosharaf said his company had always paid wages on time in the past, but had still not fully paid workers' salaries for March this year.

"Without support from the banks, we are disappearing from business," he said.

Saleudh Zaman Khan, managing director of NZ Apparels Limited, said his company had around $8,00,000 in unpaid bills for goods supplied to garment factories.

Some of the payments under Islami Bank LCs are now more than a year overdue, he said.

Besides Islami Bank, EXIM Bank, and Premier Bank, some other banks controlled by the S Alam Group are also failing to make payment, Saleudh said. "Because of this, we have to pay extra interest on our loans and divert funds from other businesses to avoid our loans becoming classified."

He added that LC agreements require banks to pay interest to suppliers if payment is delayed by more than five days after maturity. "But even after months of delay, we are not receiving that interest."

The volume of forced loans at Rupali Bank hit $1.87 billion by the end of December 2025, nearly doubling in four years, according to a Bangladesh Bank inspection conducted by its Bank Supervision Department.

Central bank data reveals a 91.59% surge since 2021 when forced loans stood at $976 million. The debt climbed steadily over the period, reaching $1.23 billion in 2023 and $1.49 billion in 2024.

In banking, a forced loan is triggered when an importer fails to settle a letter of credit (LC) or credit facility on time. In such cases, the bank must then pay the foreign entity from its own coffers, converting the unpaid obligation into an immediate loan in the importer's name.

Officials say the growing volume of such loans reflects importers' failure to settle LC liabilities on time, forcing the bank to convert those dues into loans – a shift that severely strains liquidity and asset quality.

Economists warn that rising forced loans are a red flag for a bank's financial health, signalling that borrowers cannot meet their obligations and increasing the risk of these debts turning into non-performing loans (NPLs).

Dr Md Ezazul Islam, director general of the Bangladesh Institute of Bank Management (BIBM), said the trend signals financial fragility within the bank.

"A rise in forced loans means the bank's financial condition has weakened. When a bank's forced loans approach $2 billion, it means the bank has already paid this amount to foreign banks, but the importers have not repaid the money to the bank," he said.

"Forced loans should not be allowed to increase. They can occur either intentionally or unintentionally, but in many banks in our country, forced loans are created through collusion between banks and customers. The bank's board needs to take stricter measures in this regard," he added.

A senior official of Rupali Bank told The Business Standard that most of the bank's forced loans are linked to the garment sector. The bank paid foreign banks against LCs opened by various garment companies in the country, but the money was not repaid to the bank.

Concerns over import payments, documentation

Moreover, the Bangladesh Bank has also uncovered extensive irregularities and a breakdown of internal controls within Rupali Bank's foreign exchange operations.

The state-owned lender reportedly paid $2.20 billion to foreign banks against import payments, but failed to provide proof that the goods entered the country – known as a bill of entry.

According to the inspection report, a large volume of these documents remains outstanding against bills that have already been settled. This indicates that while the bank has funnelled dollars abroad on behalf of importers, there is no verification that the corresponding goods ever entered the country.

The central bank, in the report, warned that these outstanding documents create a significant risk of money laundering and trade-based illicit outflows, as there is currently no evidence that the imported goods exist.

Central bank's rejection of new AD branch licence

The central bank also rejected Rupali Bank's application to open a new authorised dealer (AD) branch in Rajarbagh, Dhaka, in March this year, citing weak risk management. The decision was based on the findings in the inspection report.

Although the bank currently operates 28 AD branches, Bangladesh Bank raised alarms over the financial stability of its foreign exchange operations.

The regulator declined to grant the licence after observing that key indicators of the bank's foreign trade operations – including imports, exports, remittances and bill of entry submissions – have declined over the past four years.

However, in a curious development, the director of the relevant department responsible for AD licensing was transferred to another department, with 1 April marking his last working day. Later, another director assigned to the department was expected to join but was on leave abroad for medical treatment from 2 April to 5 April, according to department sources.

During that period, a note was submitted to the relevant executive director recommending that the bank be allowed to reapply for a new AD licence.

Declining foreign exchange indicators

The state-owned lender's foreign trade indicators have deteriorated sharply over the past few years.

Its import volume fell from $3.17 billion in 2021 to $836 million in 2025, while exports declined from $386 million to $213 million during the same period. Remittance inflows also dropped significantly, from $708 million in 2021 to $293 million in 2025, according to central bank data.

Bangladesh Bank noted that all major indicators related to the bank's foreign currency transactions have weakened.

Meanwhile, the bank's total non-performing loans reached Tk21,358 crore as of 31 December 2024, accounting for 41.60% of its total loans.

Inspection uncovers more irregularities

The inspection by the supervision department at five authorised dealer branches of Rupali Bank uncovered 46 serious irregularities and fraudulent activities.

Among the major findings were the concealment of actual loan liabilities by presenting Export Development Fund (EDF) and UPAS LC obligations, granting new credit facilities to the same customers despite existing forced loan defaults, and creating forced loans without approval from the head office.

The inspection also found that export proceeds were used to repay other loans instead of adjusting back-to-back LCs, and that "best exporter" certificates were issued in violation of regulations.

The report further said the bank received an "unsatisfactory" rating in three key areas – internal control and compliance (ICC), credit risk management (CRM), and ICT security.

A senior central bank official said the bank's NPL ratio exceeding 41% clearly indicates a deteriorating financial condition, warning that it could create greater risks for the bank in the future.

On the issues, Ahsan Habib, director at BIBM, said the growing backlog of bills of entry and the rising volume of forced loans are deeply worrying.

"Outstanding bills of entry and increasing forced loans are extremely alarming. It means money is going abroad but not returning to the country," he said.

"If the bank's board and management are not strong, it will be difficult to reduce these risks. The current board should identify which companies required the forced loans and bring them under accountability," he added.

Rupali Bank's response

Responding to the allegation, a Rupali Bank general manager familiar with the matter said around 95% of the bills of entry are linked to the Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation (BPC).

Central bank officials also acknowledged the matter and attributed the discrepancies to tariff valuation issues during BPC's fuel imports, noting that while discussions have been held between the BPC, the National Board of Revenue (NBR), and the central bank, a resolution remains elusive.

When contacted, a senior official at BPC declined to comment on the matter.

The bank's general manager further clarified that the discrepancies in the bill of entry amounts have arisen due to fluctuations in the dollar exchange rate.

On the rise in forced loans, he said, "Many garment sector businesses failed to make payments on time due to order cancellations and the slowdown following Covid. However, if we receive a new AD licence, our exchange earnings will increase, and the situation will normalise."

Giving priority to the rural economy, the proposed Annual Development Programme (ADP) for FY2026-27 has allocated the highest share to the Local Government Division, while significantly increasing allocations for ministries and divisions linked to education and health.

However, the Power Division has seen a cut in its proposed budget, according to a letter sent by the Finance Division to the Implementation Monitoring and Evaluation Division of the Planning Commission on 20 April.

The letter outlines the proposed allocations for the 10 highest-funded ministries and divisions.

These include the Road Transport and Highways Division, Ministry of Primary and Mass Education, Secondary and Higher Education Division, Power Division, Ministry of Science and Technology, and the Health Services Division.

The Local Government Division has been allocated Tk36,228 crore under the proposal, up from Tk34,702 crore in the current fiscal year's ADP.

The Roads and Highways Division, the second-largest recipient, has been allocated Tk31,064.51 crore, slightly lower than the Tk31,772.25 crore in the current ADP.

The Primary and Mass Education Ministry has seen a sharp increase, with a proposed allocation of Tk21,347.53 crore, up 267.8% from Tk5,803.43 crore in the current fiscal year.

The Secondary and Higher Education Division has received Tk20,835.44 crore, an increase of nearly 75%.

The Power Division's allocation has been reduced to Tk19,285.66 crore, down 18.63% from Tk23,702.76 crore in the current fiscal year.

The Ministry of Science and Technology has been allocated Tk17,315.74 crore, up 47%, with priority given to the Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant project.

The Health Services Division has seen one of the sharpest increases, with a proposed allocation of Tk26,808 crore, up 258% from Tk 7,484.36 crore in the current fiscal year.

The Shipping Ministry has been allocated Tk 10,968.9 crore, broadly in line with the current allocation of Tk 10,661 crore.

The Health Education and Family Welfare Division has received Tk8,444.85 crore, marking a 75.57% increase.

Among other allocations, the Water Resources Ministry has been proposed Tk 7,903 crore, while the Railways Ministry has been allocated Tk 7,547 crore, slightly higher than Tk 7,535 crore in the current ADP.

The Agriculture Ministry's allocation has been raised to Tk 6,540 crore from Tk 5,833.82 crore, while the Technical and Madrasah Education Division has been allocated Tk 6,112.99 crore.

Planning Commission sources said the Finance Ministry has proposed a total ADP size of Tk3,00,000 crore for FY27. The structure of funding was finalised at a meeting of the Budget Monitoring and Resource Committee on 10 April.

Of the total ADP size, Tk1,90,000 crore will come from domestic resources, while Tk1,10,000 crore is expected from foreign loans and grants.

The final ADP for FY27 will be placed before the National Economic Council (NEC), chaired by the prime minister, next month for approval, the Planning Commission said.

The government yesterday approved the direct purchase of 1.75 lakh tonnes of diesel and octane from two suppliers, bypassing the standard tender process as concerns deepen over Gulf supply disruptions caused by the US-Israeli war on Iran.

The Cabinet Committee on Government Purchase (CCGP) cleared multiple proposals from state agencies to that end at a cost of nearly Tk 1,700 crore.

As per the proposals, 100,000 tonnes of diesel will be bought from US-based Archer Energy LLC at Tk 674 crore. Another 75,000 tonnes of fuel, including 50,000 tonnes of diesel and 25,000 tonnes of octane, will be bought from Dubai-based DBS Trading House FZCO at Tk 1,023 crore.

The war on Iran, which began on February 28, sent oil prices spiralling after Iran effectively blocked the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of global oil supply passes.

The head of the International Energy Agency said yesterday that the conflict is producing the worst energy crisis the world has ever faced.

Bangladesh is especially exposed to the volatility in the international energy markets, given its growing import dependency. Some 46 percent of the country’s total energy supply came from imports in 2023. In the fiscal year 2024-2025 (FY25), imports accounted for 65 percent of its power needs. with the reliance increasing every year.

The government has been scrambling for alternative suppliers. It earlier approved the purchase of 2 lakh tonnes of diesel from Kazakhstan.

In a separate development yesterday, the Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs allowed Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation (BPC) to compress its tender preparation and submission period for refined fuel imports from 42 days to 10, a move designed to speed up procurement as supply pressures mount.

Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury chaired the meeting.

Earlier, the committee approved the direct import of 2.75 lakh tonnes of fuel oil, which implies that the BPC can buy additional 1 lakh tonnes of petroleum through direct purchase method.

The BPC sold 68.35 lakh tonnes of fuel in FY25 and 43.5 lakh tonnes or 63 percent of the total sales were diesel, according to the BPC.

The state agency had imported 46 lakh tonnes of refined petroleum and 15 lakh tonnes of crude oil that year.

Bangladesh Bank (BB) has removed Mohammad Imdadul Islam, managing director of International Leasing and Financial Services Limited, over irregularities and concealment of information.

The central bank sent a letter in this regard to the chairman of the board of directors of the leasing company on Monday and instructed its board to take the necessary steps.

In a letter issued on January 25, the central bank asked Islam to explain why action should not be taken against him for alleged misconduct, including falsification of board meeting minutes and violation of human resources policies.

The regulator also cited his role in dismissing five officials, including the chief financial officer, on January 1 this year in breach of internal policies and regulatory guidelines.

The BB investigation also reviewed his previous tenure as managing director and CEO of GSP Finance Company, where multiple irregularities were identified
Bangladesh Bank said the explanation submitted by Islam on January 28 was found to be unsatisfactory.

The central bank’s investigation also reviewed his previous tenure as managing director and CEO of GSP Finance Company (Bangladesh) Limited, where multiple irregularities were identified.

These included showing a Tk 49.9 crore loan to Keya Cosmetics Ltd as unclassified without prior approval from the central bank, which significantly reduced GSP Finance’s classified loan ratio.

He was also found to have restructured loan facilities of a subsidiary in violation of regulatory circulars, leading to a financial penalty under the Financial Institutions Act, 1993.

In addition, the regulator alleged that excess penal interest was imposed on a loan account of Dorin Hotels & Resorts Ltd during the Covid period, despite repeated instructions to comply with regulatory directives.

According to the Bangladesh Bank, Islam failed to disclose these issues in his application and affidavit when seeking appointment as managing director of International Leasing.

“Considering his involvement in the irregularities and submission of a false affidavit, he has been removed from the post under Section 19 of the Finance Company Act, 2023,” the central bank said.

The regulator also advised the leasing company to appoint a qualified senior official as acting managing director in line with existing guidelines.

The Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) between Bangladesh and Japan is set to serve as a precedent for future agreements with major economies such as the European Union, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean), and the United Kingdom, as Bangladesh seeks to expand its global trade network.

As Bangladesh’s first comprehensive economic partnership with a developed economy, the EPA is viewed as a strategic step in preparing for its post-Least Developed Country (LDC) era, according to the latest news bulletin of the International Chamber of Commerce-Bangladesh (ICCB), released on Monday.

Under the agreement, Japan has granted duty-free access to 7,379 Bangladeshi products, covering nearly 97 percent of the country’s export basket, including readymade garments.

This is expected to help Bangladesh mitigate potential tariff shocks as it graduates from LDC status.

The EPA goes beyond tariff benefits, incorporating provisions on services, investment, customs facilitation, intellectual property, and digital trade.

Japan will open 120 service sub-sectors to Bangladeshi professionals, while Bangladesh will allow access to 97 sub-sectors, creating new opportunities in areas such as IT, engineering, and caregiving.

The ICCB bulletin noted that the agreement could play a key role in diversifying Bangladesh’s export base, which has long been dominated by garments.

Sectors such as electronics, automotive components, and processed goods are likely to benefit from increased Japanese investment and integration into regional supply chains.

The EPA is also expected to enhance regulatory transparency and reduce non-tariff barriers, strengthening Bangladesh’s position as a reliable destination for trade and investment.

In contrast, ongoing discussions on a Bangladesh-US reciprocal trade arrangement offer a more limited framework, with conditional market access and less comprehensive coverage in services and investment.

Despite these opportunities, experts stress that Bangladesh’s ability to fully benefit from such agreements will depend on domestic preparedness, including improvements in logistics, trade facilitation, quality infrastructure, and human capital development.

The ICCB added that the EPA represents more than a trade milestone, signalling Bangladesh’s readiness to move beyond its LDC status and integrate more deeply into the global economy.

The country's revenue collection has hit a historic deficit of approximately Tk98,000 crore against the target in the first nine months of the current fiscal 2025-26, surpassing the total shortfall recorded in any previous full financial year.

The National Board of Revenue data shows that the gap has already exceeded the Tk92,000 crore shortfall seen in the entirety of the last fiscal year, with experts warning that the deficit will widen further by June.

In March – the first full month under the new administration – revenue collection fell short of the monthly target by nearly Tk26,000 crore, growing by a mere 2.67% compared to the same month last year.

Speaking to The Business Standard, economists and NBR officials attributed the weak performance mainly to lower imports caused by the Middle East conflict, sluggish domestic economic activity, continued revenue leakage, and an overly ambitious target that did not reflect the tax authority's actual capacity.

Despite the widening shortfall, overall revenue collection during the first nine months of the fiscal year increased by more than 11% from a year earlier.

Officials said the increase was not sufficient to keep pace with the target set for the year.

"The economy has slowed, revenue leakage has not been contained and imports fell in March because of the Middle East conflict," an NBR official said. "At the same time, the revenue target was set without taking into account the actual capacity and limitations of the NBR."

Economists warned that the weak revenue performance is creating immediate pressure on the new government, which is already facing higher spending commitments.

According to NBR data, import tax receipts in March declined from the same month a year earlier, while value-added tax and income tax collections rose by 4.86% and 2.77%, respectively.

Import duties account for the largest share of revenue collected by Chattogram Custom House.

Its commissioner, Shafi Uddin, said imports fell because of the Middle East conflict, reducing import tax collection.

He also said one of the country's largest taxpayers, Eastern Refinery, remained shut in March, leaving the government without any revenue from the company during the month.

In March of the previous fiscal year, Eastern Refinery alone had paid Tk500 crore in revenue, he said. "Because the refinery remains closed, the government is also unlikely to receive revenue from the company in April."

Bangladesh Bank data also shows that imports in March fell by nearly 27% from a year earlier.

Snehasish Barua, a tax expert and chartered accountant, said the Middle East conflict and weak domestic economic conditions both contributed to the decline in revenue collection.

"Alongside the Middle East crisis, there was little dynamism in the domestic economy in March. That is one of the reasons why revenue collection fell," he said.

A review of NBR data over recent years shows that revenue collection has repeatedly weakened during periods of domestic and international disruption.

Tax receipts fell sharply during the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020, during the July uprising in 2024 and during the protests by NBR officials in June 2025.

Zahid Hussain, former lead economist at the World Bank's Dhaka office, said Bangladesh's revenue performance is being held back by slower economic growth, weak institutional capacity and the lack of reform within the NBR.

"An external shock has further weakened growth," he said. "As a result, consumer spending is falling and the private sector has not expanded. These are among the main reasons behind the lower revenue collection."

Zahid also said the large shortfall was partly the result of an excessively ambitious target, a mistake that he believes the government is preparing to repeat in the next budget.

The government set a revenue target of Tk6.97 lakh crore for FY26.

"How the government plans to raise such a large amount remains unclear," Zahid said. "This creates a major challenge for the new government, and that challenge will become even greater if it adopts an expansionary budget."

Commenting on pressure from the International Monetary Fund, the economist said the lender wants to see whether the government is taking effective steps to meet the targets it has set for Bangladesh.

When the Strait of Hormuz – a corridor that carries nearly a fifth of global oil supply – became embroiled in the US-Israel war against Iran, the shockwaves were felt across the globe, and hiking fuel prices became inevitable for most countries.

Around 20 oil-exporting nations control 80% of the global petroleum trade. Any disruption in those countries or in supply routes sends prices soaring in the rest of the world and forces governments to choose between fiscal pain and public hardship.

According to AFP tracking of 150 countries, fuel price adjustments in many economies – big or small – ranged from below 5% to over 55%. South Asia, heavily dependent on Gulf crude channelled through Hormuz, felt the squeeze sharply. Yet the divergence in crisis management across the region has been striking – and revealing.

Pakistan and Sri Lanka moved quickly to acknowledge the crisis and took measures to check consumption, ease fiscal strain and keep impacts lower on people and the economy.

Pakistan raised fuel prices by up to 55% in phases. But the hikes were accompanied by relief: petroleum levies were slashed, diesel levies cut to zero, federal ministers forfeited salaries, and targeted subsidies were rolled out for farmers, bikers and transport operators.

Besides, free bus services were introduced in major cities. In Punjab and Sindh, registered transporters and motorcyclists received direct support on condition that they did not pass on the full burden to commuters.

Sri Lanka, still recovering from its 2022 economic collapse, raised fuel prices by 34% and paired the move with strict demand management.

The Ceylon Petroleum Corporation enforced QR-based rationing, an odd-even number plate system, and consumption ceilings, hoping to cut demand by 20%. The island nation also shifted to a four-day workweek and expanded work-from-home policies to prepare for prolonged disruption.

India, with its strong refining capacity and discounted Russian crude supplies, took a different route.

It maintained steady domestic pump prices for mass-consumed fuels by cutting excise duties, slightly adjusted only premium grades, preserved its strategic reserves, and continued fuel exports to neighbours, including Nepal, Bhutan, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh.

Supply stability, rather than price shock, was India's primary shield.

Bangladesh lags behind

Bangladesh, by contrast, hesitated.

From the outset, officials maintained that fuel stocks were adequate and attributed shortages to panic buying and hoarding. Price hikes came much later than others.

Average 16% hikes, announced on 18 April, were quickly followed by a 10-20% increase in supplies. LPG prices were adjusted twice in a month.

But these moves were reactive, not supported by safeguard measures to cushion ripple impacts on public life. Immediate knock-on impacts were a disproportionate rise in transport fares, quickly translated into commodity prices.

Attempts at rationing were inconsistent, and supply monitoring through deploying "tag officers" did not work well. While Sri Lanka formalised and digitised its system, Bangladesh introduced informal ceilings at pumps but withdrew visible rationing ahead of Eid to ease public anxiety.

The absence of a consistent framework weakened demand management just when it was most needed. The core problem is not merely price adjustment. Crucial safeguard measures were also absent.

There were no targeted subsidies for farmers for irrigation, or for transport operators to force them not to raise fares. As a result, transport fares rose disproportionately, pushing up commodity prices.

Despite authorities' claim of adequate stock and BPC's reported increase in fuel supplies to state-owned companies, long queues of motorists and long-haul trucks persisted as pumps shortened operating hours or displayed "no fuel" signs.

Regional peers combined three elements: acknowledging the crisis, focusing on demand management and undertaking cushioning measures while hiking fuel prices.

Bangladesh largely focused on supply management and took belated and uneven steps to curb demand through inconsistent rationing and engaging "tag officer" with little or no visible impact.

But relief measures to help motorists, farmers, transporters and consumers cushion the price hike shocks remain almost absent. Despite the authorities' repeated announcement about adequate stocks, public perception of scarcity persists, prompting pumps to self-ration and motorists to struggle to keep tanks filled.

As a result, queues at pumps lengthen, and hoarding continues despite raids by authorities and seizure of illegally stored fuels in basements or on rooftops.

In a region equally exposed to Gulf supply routes, Bangladesh's lag is not due to geography or dependency. It stems from delayed acknowledgement, ad hoc demand management, lack of proper communication and the absence of safeguards against price shocks.

The Strait of Hormuz crisis has shown that managing fuel shortages is not simply about raising prices and building stocks. It is about managing demand and supply, maintaining public trust and protecting vulnerable groups – farmers, commuters, bikers and transporters.

On all those counts, Bangladesh still trails its peers.

Bangladesh's export of vegetables, fruits, and processed agricultural products to the Middle East, Europe, and other destinations is facing severe disruption as cargo airfreight costs have nearly doubled following the ongoing war between Iran, the United States, and Israel.

Exporters say shipments have dropped sharply, while costs have become uncompetitive in global markets.

According to exporters, airfreight charges have surged across all major destinations. Shipping agri products to the Middle East now costs Tk180-280 per kg, up from Tk120-140 before the conflict. For Europe and the United Kingdom, the cost has jumped to Tk620-650 per kg from Tk400-450 earlier. Freight charges to other destinations have also nearly doubled.

Prior to the war, it cost about $2,800 to ship a container of vegetables and fruits to the Middle East. Now, the cost has risen to around $6,200-6,400, making exports increasingly unviable.

Exporters also say securing cargo space has become significantly more difficult, further disrupting supply chains.

Export slump pushes farmers into losses

Mohammad Kanchan Mia, proprietor of Arot Agro BD, who exports vegetables, fruits, and dry foods to multiple regions including the Middle East, Europe, Malaysia, and Singapore, said his business has been severely affected.

He normally operates 9-10 shipments per month but managed only one potato container in March. "Due to the war, airfreight rates have increased so much that exports have almost dropped to zero," he said.

Mushtaque Ahmad Shah, proprietor & CEO of Shah Traders, said air freight charges have doubled within a month, making bookings nearly impossible. He added that exporters from India are not facing similar increases and continue exporting at previous rates. "If this continues, exports will fall to near zero. Our freight charges are being increased every few days," he said.

Md Shahid Sarker, another exporter, said Bangladesh is losing competitiveness. He noted export costs from India are Tk200-250 per kg and lower in Pakistan, while Bangladesh pays nearly Tk700 per kg.

"It is impossible to compete with them," he said, adding that products are now being sold at lower prices in the domestic market due to halted exports.

Mango export fears rise ahead of peak season

Bangladesh exports agricultural goods worth around $1 billion annually, but recent data shows a sharp decline. According to the Export Promotion Bureau, vegetable exports fell by 45% in March compared to last year. During the same period, dry food exports dropped by 19.40%, spices by 12.74%, and beverages, spirits, and vinegar by 34.36%.

Concerns are now mounting ahead of the May-September mango export season. Exporters say rising freight costs could severely impact shipments of mangoes and jackfruits, which are cultivated under strict Global Good Agricultural Practices (GAP) standards and have high production costs.

Mohammad Hafizur Rahman of the Bangladesh Fruits, Vegetables and Allied Products Exporters Association said exports have "almost come to a halt," adding that freight to London has reached nearly Tk600 per kg from under Tk400 earlier.

Mushtaque Ahmad Shah said Bangladeshi mangoes previously received strong demand, including at a fruit fair in Qatar, but current conditions have halted initiatives. "At current freight rates, it is simply impossible to compete with India and Pakistan," he said.

According to the Department of Agricultural Extension, mango exports stood at 2,194 tonnes last year, down from 3,100 tonnes in 2023 and up from 1,321 tonnes in 2024.

Officials say discussions with airlines and civil aviation authorities are planned ahead of the mango season to address cargo fare issues.

Abu Noman Faruq Ahmmed, professor at Sher-e-Bangla Agricultural University, warned that rising production costs combined with lack of export opportunities are discouraging farmers.

Prof Faruq, also a registered trainer of GLOBAL GAP, said without reducing freight costs, Bangladesh will struggle to remain competitive in global markets.

Unilever Consumer Care Limited, a multinational company listed on the capital market, posted a decline in both its top and bottom-line revenue performances during the first quarter of 2026.

The net profit of the company dropped 12% year-on-year to Tk12.11 crore in January-March this year, weighed down by sluggish sales. Consequently, earnings per share (EPS) for the three-month period stood at Tk6.29.

According to the company's unaudited financial statements for the January–March period, the total revenue of Unilever slipped by 8% to Tk87.44 crore compared to the same period a year ago.

The revenue decline was observed across its core product categories ranging from health and food drinks including flagship brands like Horlicks, Boost, and Maltova – dropping by 9% to Tk71.81 crore. Similarly, its glucose powder segment saw a 4% decline, bringing in Tk15.62 crore.

In its final financial statement, a leading player in Bangladesh's health and nutrition segment Unilever Consumer Care Limited attributed the drop in profitability primarily to lower net finance income and a marginal contraction in its gross margins. However, the management noted that these negative impacts were partially offset by strategic cost-optimisation initiatives within its operating expenses.

At the end of March 2026, the company's net asset value (NAV) per share stood at Tk 122.58 while the net operating cash flow per share was recorded at Tk10.74.

Following the disclosure of these results on the websites of the Dhaka and Chittagong stock exchanges, the company's share price inched down by 0.32% to settle at Tk2,070.90 on Tuesday.

The recent performance follows a 420% cash dividend recommendation for the 2025 financial year, which was notably lower than the 520% dividend declared in 2024. The proposed payout is scheduled for final approval at the upcoming Annual General Meeting on 18 May.

Unilever Consumer Care, formerly known as GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) Bangladesh, underwent a significant transition in 2020 when Unilever acquired GSK's local health food drink business for approximately Tk2,000 crore. Since the acquisition and subsequent name change, the company has operated as a subsidiary of Unilever, focusing on its dominant market share in the energy and nutrition drink segments.

Bangladesh's total foreign exchange reserves stood at $30.46 billion as of last night (21 April).

Arif Hossain Khan, spokesperson and executive director of the central bank, confirmed while addressing journalists yesterday that the reserve position was previously $30.37 billion.

Bangladesh Bank purchased over $180 million from last week to Monday this week, contributing to the rise in reserves through increased foreign currency holdings.

A senior official of the central bank said Bangladesh Bank will make a payment to the Asian Clearing Union (ACU) next month, which prompted the purchase of US dollars from commercial banks.

Speakers at a high-level workshop yesterday emphasised the critical role of robust shariah governance in ensuring transparency, accountability, and public trust within the Islamic banking sector.

The remarks were made during the opening session of a three-day special training workshop, titled “Shariah Governance for Members of Shariah Supervisory Committees”, held at the Bangladesh Institute of Bank Management (BIBM) in the capital. The programme is being jointly organised by BIBM and the Bangladesh Bank.

Md Kabir Ahmed, deputy governor of Bangladesh Bank, inaugurated the workshop as the chief guest.

He stated that effective shariah governance is essential for upholding public confidence in the Islamic banking system.

He further noted that shariah-based supervision plays a pivotal role in ensuring accountability across all banking operations.

Abu Bakar Rafique, chairman of the Shariah Advisory Board of Bangladesh Bank, attended as a special guest.

He stressed the need for a strong institutional framework to guarantee transparency in Islamic financial activities.

Supporting this view, Mohammed Abdul Mannan, chairman of the Executive Committee of the Central Shariah Board for Islamic Banks of Bangladesh (CSBIB), highlighted that as the country’s Islamic banking sector continues to expand rapidly, the need for effective shariah oversight has become more crucial than ever.

The inaugural session was presided over by Md Ezazul Islam, director general of BIBM. In his address, he reaffirmed BIBM’s commitment to enhancing good governance and professional expertise in the banking sector through regular training, research, and knowledge-sharing initiatives.

The workshop, which runs from April 21 to April 23, 2026, is being attended by members of Shariah Supervisory Committees from various Islamic banks and financial institutions across the country. The sessions will focus on shariah governance frameworks, regulatory policies, and global best practices.

Earlier, Mohammed Tazul Islam, professor and director at BIBM, also spoke in the opening event.

A refund system for businesses that paid tariffs, which the US Supreme Court ruled President Donald Trump imposed without the constitutional authority to do so, launched Monday.

Importers and their brokers could begin claiming refunds through an online portal beginning at 8 am, according to US Customs and Border Protection, the agency administering the system.

It’s the first step in a complicated process that also might eventually lead to refunds for consumers who were billed for some or all of the tariffs on products shipped to them from outside the United States.

Companies must submit declarations listing the goods on which they collectively put billions of dollars toward the import taxes the court struck down on February 20. If CBP approves a claim, it will take 60-90 days for a refund to be issued, the agency said.

The government expects to process refunds in phases, however, focusing first on more recent tariff payments. Any number of technical factors and procedural issues also could delay an importer’s application, so any reimbursements businesses plan to make likely would trickle down to consumers slowly.

The co-owner of a clothing company based in Washington, D.C., said the system seemed buggy on Monday when she tried to create an account on the portal, which was required before companies could do anything else. A lawyer in Northern Virginia said his clients reported some system delays and lag time.

In a 6-3 decision, the Supreme Court found that Trump usurped Congress' tax-setting role last April when he set new import tax rates on products from almost every other country, citing the US trade deficit as a national emergency that warranted his invoking of a 1977 emergency powers law.

Although the court majority did not address refunds in its ruling, a judge at the US Court of International Trade determined last month that companies subjected to IEEPA tariffs were entitled to money back.

Not all taxed imports immediately eligible

Customs and Border Protection said in court filings that over 330,000 importers paid a total of about $166 billion on over 53 million shipments.

Not all of those orders qualify for the first phase of the refund system's rollout, which is limited to cases in which tariffs were estimated but not finalized or within 80 days of a final accounting.

To receive refunds, importers have to register for the CPB's electronic payment system. As of April 14, 56,497 importers had completed registration and were eligible for refunds totaling $127 billion, including interest, the agency said.

System requires accuracy

Meghann Supino, a partner at Ice Miller, said the law firm has advised clients to carefully list in their declarations all of the document numbers for forms that went to CBP to describe imported goods and their value.

“If there is an entry on that file that does not qualify, it may cause the entire entry to be rejected or that line item might be rejected by Customs,” she said.

Supino thinks the portal going live will require composure as well as diligence.

“Like any electronic online program that goes live with a lot of interest, I would expect that there might be some hiccups with the program on Monday,” she said.

“So, we continue to ask everyone to be patient, because we think that patience will pay off.”

Nghi Huynh, the partner-in-charge of transfer pricing at accounting and consulting firm Armanino, said most companies claiming refunds will have imported a mix of items, and not all will qualify right away.

“It’s about having a clear process in place and keeping track of what’s been submitted and what’s been paid, so nothing falls through the cracks,” she said. “Each file can include thousands of entries, but accuracy is critical, as submissions can be rejected if formatting or data is incorrect.”

Patience with the process

Small businesses have eagerly awaited the chance to apply for refunds. Rebecca Melsky, co-owner of the clothing brand and online store Princess Awesome, said she was unable to register for a portal account Monday despite trying to submit her CPB import code and company information using two different web browsers.

She said Princess Awesome would file for a refund eventually. The company imports some of its clothes from factories in Bangladesh, China, India and Peru. Melsky estimated it paid $32,000 in IEEPA tariffs.

“My expectations have been pretty low about whether we were actually going to see any money back to us,” she said.

“I’m heartened by the fact that there’s any system at all, but I’m only slightly more optimistic than I was last week, which was not very."

Justin Angotti, an associate attorney in the international trade practice of global law firm Reed Smith, said his clients ultimately had their declarations accepted Monday, even if it might have taken a few attempts.

“So far, Customs has been very responsive in trying to troubleshoot the issue,” Angotti said.

Oil prices fell on Tuesday while most stocks rose on lingering hopes for a deal to end the US-Iran war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, even as Tehran said it had not decided whether to attend peace talks.

With the end of a two-week ceasefire approaching, the White House said Vice President JD Vance was ready to return to Pakistan for fresh negotiations to end a conflict that has sent crude soaring and revived inflation fears.

However, the Islamic republic's position remained uncertain as it accused Washington of violating their fragile truce through its blockade of the country's ports and seizure of a ship.

Crude plunged on Friday after Tehran said it would allow ships to transit the Strait of Hormuz, which had been effectively closed since the war began on February 28.

But the commodity rebounded on Monday as Iran closed the waterway again, citing the blockade and seizure.

Donald Trump has similarly accused Tehran of violating the ceasefire by harassing vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, the transit passage for about one-fifth of global oil.

The US president said the blockade would not be lifted until an agreement had been reached.

"THE BLOCKADE, which we will not take off until there is a 'DEAL,' is absolutely destroying Iran," Trump said on social media. "They are losing $500 Million Dollars a day, an unsustainable number, even in the short run."

He told PBS News that Iran was "supposed to be there" at the talks in Pakistan.

"We agreed to be there," he said, warning that if the ceasefire expired "then lots of bombs start going off".

He separately told Bloomberg News it was "highly unlikely" he would extend the truce.

Based on its start time, the truce theoretically expires overnight on Tuesday, Iran time, although in his comments to Bloomberg Trump said the end was Wednesday evening Washington time.

The Middle Eastern country's parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said "Trump wants to turn this negotiating table into a surrender table or justify renewed hostilities, as he sees fit".

"We do not accept negotiations under the shadow of threats, and in the last two weeks we have been preparing to show new cards on the battlefield," he wrote on X.

Still, investors remained largely upbeat that the two sides will eventually come to a deal that will reopen the strategic strait.

US benchmark crude West Texas Intermediate rose more than one percent, while Brent was also higher.

Seoul led the equity market gains thanks to a resumption of the tech rally that had pushed the Kospi to multiple records before the war, while Tokyo and Taipei were also well up.

Hong Kong, Singapore and Manila also advanced, although Shanghai and Sydney fluctuated.

That came even after a down day on Wall Street, where the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite retreated from Friday's record closes.

Asia had opened "with a gentle lean into risk as signs Iran may join talks with the US offer a pathway, however narrow, toward easing tensions ahead of the ceasefire deadline", wrote SPI Asset Management's Stephen Innes.

"Markets are pricing the possibility of progress rather than its certainty," he said.

"Trump's remark that a ceasefire extension is 'highly unlikely' if no deal is reached has effectively put a clock on the market.

"However, traders recognize the playbook. Hard deadlines and firm rhetoric often soften as negotiations evolve, but the presence of a timeline still sharpens positioning and raises the stakes around each headline."

In company news, Japanese arms firms enjoyed healthy buying after Tokyo said on Tuesday it would ease decades-old export rules, paving the way for the sale of lethal weapons overseas.

The policy shift, which ends Tokyo's self-imposed restraint on the sale of lethal arms, comes as it seeks to enter the international arms market, hoping to bolster national defence as well as boost economic growth.

Fujitsu climbed 2.4 percent, NEC added 3.7 percent and Mitsubishi Electric was up 0.9 percent, while Mitsubishi Heavy gained 0.4 percent.

In recent weeks, making a simple phone call has become a daily struggle for Md Mosharraf at Char Bahadurpur, a village at Phulpur upazila in Mymensingh district. For it, he blames prolonged power cuts.

“Nowadays, we get electricity for less than five hours a day. Once the electricity is gone, there is no network,” said Mosharraf. “I can’t even speak through my phone most of the time.”

Currently, this problem is no longer limited to remote villages.

Mobile operators and tower companies say network quality has deteriorated over the weeks as power cuts have become more frequent and fuel supplies have worsened following the war in the Middle East.

During power outages, operators depend on battery backups at tower sites. Most sites, however, have backup capacity for only four to six hours.

“When cuts last longer than that, there is no way to recharge the batteries,” said Shahed Alam, chief corporate and regulatory affairs officer at Robi Axiata.

Mobile operators then turn to generators. But only about 25 percent of towers are equipped with fixed generators, forcing many to depend on portable units.

“Adding insult to injury, we are not getting fuel supply to the towers and our critical data centres,” Alam said.

There are 46,567 telecom towers across the country, operated by tower infrastructure companies and mobile operators. This provides network coverage to over 18.58 crore customers. Operators have around 27 data centres across Bangladesh.

Tower companies yesterday said that the fuel crisis could severely disrupt national connectivity.

“Bangladesh’s connectivity ecosystem is facing a real and immediate threat,” said Sunil Issac, interim president of the Bangladesh TowerCo Association and country managing director of EDOTCO Bangladesh.

He said telecom underpins all digital and economic activity and cannot be allowed to fail.

“If the telecom sector is not prioritised within national energy allocation and fuel access frameworks, we risk a cascading failure that will impact businesses, essential services, and everyday life. Ensuring uninterrupted connectivity is no longer a sectoral concern; it is a national imperative,” he said.

Data collected by tower companies through remote monitoring sensors show that electricity availability at tower sites has dropped over the past month.

In 12 districts, supply has fallen from 93 percent to 77 percent from the first week of March to the second week of April, according to tower company statistics.

A tower company official said operators run thousands of towers nationwide and track power availability continuously.

Sunil Issac said, “We have engaged with the relevant authorities to outline the risks and propose immediate, practical solutions, including priority access to fuel and enabling policy support to help the sector navigate this challenging period.”

He said that given the scale of dependency on digital networks, proactive and coordinated action is essential.

In recent weeks, mobile operators have sent at least two letters to the telecom regulator, saying an imminent nationwide disruption. The Association of Mobile Telecom Operators of Bangladesh said the electricity and fuel crisis has “reached a point where continued telecom operations can no longer be sustained without immediate government intervention.”

The association said prolonged outages have forced operators to run key infrastructure on diesel generators.

According to the letters, base transceiver stations (BTSs) consume more than 52,000 litres of diesel and nearly 20,000 litres of octane each day across operators. Each data centre uses an estimated 500 to 600 litres of diesel per hour, or about 4,000 litres a day per facility.

Industry insiders say such reliance on backup power cannot continue for long. Unlike tower sites, data centres manage call routing and internet traffic. Any shutdown at that level could cause failures across the network.

“If fuel can’t be managed and data centres go offline, it would cause widespread call drops, internet outages, and service blackouts,” said an official at a mobile operator, preferring not to be named.

Contacted, Tanveer Mohammad, chief corporate affairs officer of Grameenphone, said operators are facing electricity and fuel shortages.

“The evolving situation calls for timely and targeted measures to sustain uninterrupted telecom services nationwide,” he added.

He said that to “proactively avoid disruptions to essential services for millions”, operators need government support to secure priority electricity for critical infrastructure, streamline fuel supply and ease fuel transport for emergency operations.

Md Emdad ul Bari, chairman of the Bangladesh Telecommunication Regulatory Commission (BTRC), said, “We have been trying to coordinate for over a month and have spoken to the telecom ministry and the energy ministry. In some places, there has been priority supply.”

He acknowledged that some tower sites are facing low fuel supplies.

“The regulator will meet the Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation tomorrow and other stakeholders later this week to improve fuel availability,” he said.

About two-thirds of agent banking outlets in Bangladesh were not engaged in lending as of December 2024, highlighting a major gap in credit delivery despite the network’s rapid expansion, a recent study has found.

Titled “Agent banking in Bangladesh: Strong expansion, some inclusion”, the research was funded by the UK-based International Growth Centre (IGC) and examines whether agent banking has translated into meaningful financial inclusion.

The study used a newly constructed dataset that collected information linked to the geographical location of agent banking outlets, developed by the Policy Research Institute (PRI), covering 2022-2024. It maps the expansion, distribution, and financial activity of agent banking outlets across Bangladesh.

Since its introduction in 2013, the agent banking network has grown from 2,601 outlets in 2016 to over 21,000 by 2024. However, recent trends suggest a slowdown, meaning expansion may be approaching saturation.

Despite growth, agent banking is more effective at mobilising deposits than providing credit, according to the study.

Deposits rose from Tk 380 crore in 2016 to Tk 41,960 crore in 2024, while cumulative credit disbursement reached Tk 24,030 crore, giving a loan-to-deposit ratio of 57.3 percent.

However, this increase in the provision of financial services is uneven and concentrated in fewer active outlets, it was found.

The research also highlights a shift in banking geography. Traditional banking is heavily concentrated in Dhaka and Chattogram, which account for around 65 percent of deposits and 78 percent of total lending.

In contrast, only about 11 percent of agent banking loans originate from these cities, showing that agent banking has helped decentralise credit flows.

Rural areas have benefited, with about 15 outlets per 100,000 people, improving access compared to traditional branch banking. Rural per capita deposits are also higher, indicating strong uptake outside urban centres.

However, credit delivery remains limited. The study identifies a “zero-loan phenomenon”, where about two-thirds of outlets had no outstanding loans in 2024, suggesting those outlets function mainly as deposit and transaction points rather than credit providers.

This is more pronounced in remote and disadvantaged regions, including the Chittagong Hill Tracts.

Outlet distribution is closely linked to existing branch density, suggesting agent banking often extends traditional banking rather than expanding independently into underserved areas.

There is also no strong evidence that poorer upazilas are prioritised, while higher literacy levels are associated with greater activity.

On gender, over 92 percent of operators are male, but women are using the system more and more. Female account growth outpaces male growth between 2022 and 2024.

“As expansion begins to slow, policy should shift from improving access to strengthening financial intermediation. This requires enabling agent-based lending through appropriate regulatory frameworks, using digital data for credit scoring, and aligning incentives so agents can serve as effective credit channels for underserved communities,” said Ashikur Rahman, principal economist at the PRI and co-author of the study.

He also called attention towards a stark gender imbalance among agents and stressed that addressing this issue must become a policy priority to ensure that financial inclusion is both deep and equitable.

The study concludes that while agent banking has significantly expanded access to financial services, its next challenge is strengthening credit intermediation, particularly in underserved and rural areas.