Oil climbed on Monday (27 April) as stalled US-Iran peace talks prolonged the disruption of Middle East energy exports, while renewed excitement about artificial intelligence spending drove up chip stocks ‌at the beginning of a week where war, central banks and tech earnings are in focus.

Benchmark Brent crude futures rose around 2% to touch a three-week high of $107.97 a barrel in Asia trade, a level that has stoked inflation worries and prompted traders to all but price out rate cuts in developed markets this year.

S&P 500 futures wobbled in the Asia session but tacked on small gains of around 0.2% after markets in Taiwan, Tokyo and Seoul followed Wall Street to notch record highs on a new wave of AI optimism.

Currency trading was broadly steady, with the euro at $1.1724 and the yen at 159.32 per dollar.

Bond ⁠markets were calm ahead of central bank meetings in Japan, the US, Britain, Europe, Canada and a smattering of emerging markets.

While a ceasefire has frozen most fighting in the war, starting with US-Israeli strikes on Iran two months ago, markets are focused on the shuttered Strait of Hormuz, where barely any ships carrying oil and gas have transited.

The average LNG price for June delivery into northeast Asia was $16.70 per million British thermal units last week, nearly 61% above pre-war levels.

Goldman Sachs analysts lifted year-end oil price forecasts sharply from $80 to $90 a barrel for Brent, and even that rests on normalisation of Gulf exports by the end of June.

"Non-linear price increases are likely if inventories drop to critically low levels, which we have not seen in the last few decades," they warned in a note.

US President Donald Trump cancelled a trip to Islamabad by US envoys for talks on the weekend, but investors were buoyed slightly by an Axios report saying Iran wants to make a deal ‌on opening ⁠the strait first and postpone nuclear talks until later.

Rates and hyperscalers earnings

Beyond oil derivatives and the even more stretched physical market where jet fuel fetches $185 a barrel in Singapore, equity investors have hoped for a breakthrough and tried to look past the oil shock to an AI trend that is seen as unstoppable.

"AI is something that people are very optimistic about and very much considered a winner," said Mike Seidenberg, senior portfolio manager for Allianz Technology Trust.

"It's the top of the portfolio."

Intel's forecast for second-quarter revenue above Wall Street ⁠expectations last week set off the latest round of buying that has pushed the total value of the chip-maker-heavy stock markets in Taiwan and South Korea above Germany's.

US tech earnings headline the week ahead, with 44% of the S&P 500 by market cap due to report and the focus on capex at Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta Platforms, which report ⁠on Wednesday. Apple reports on Thursday.

Major central banks are expected to stay on hold this week, though aggressive bets on future rate hikes in Britain and Europe could be tested if policymakers strike a cautious tone.

The Bank of Japan is the first off the rank and is expected to keep its short-term policy rate steady at ⁠0.75% on Tuesday.

The Federal Reserve is also expected to leave rates where they are at what is likely to be Jerome Powell's final meeting in the chair.

The European Central Bank and Bank of England are likewise expected to hold, but their tone and outlook could challenge market pricing for both banks to make two 25-basis-point hikes later in the year.

Liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies are likely to remain strained through the end of 2027 due to disruptions and infrastructure damage from the US-Iran war, the International Energy Agency said Friday.

Energy prices have soared since Tehran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz to Gulf tanker traffic and began striking oil and gas targets in neighbouring countries in retaliation for US and Israeli attacks.

“The combined effect of short-term supply losses and slower capacity growth could result in a cumulative loss of around 120 billion cubic metres of LNG supply between 2026 and 2030,” the Paris-based agency said in a new report.

It said nearly 20 percent of LNG supply has been lost due to the conflict, and warned that new investments to increase production are likely to be delayed.

“While new liquefaction projects in other regions are expected to offset these losses over time, the impact will prolong tight markets through 2026 and 2027,” it said.

Soaring prices could also depress demand for gas, with many countries already announcing energy-saving measures that could drive demand for renewable energy sources.

“The demand side is set to play a key role in balancing the market -- particularly in Asia, where fuel switching is already picking up alongside energy-saving measures,” the IEA said.

Economists warn that persistently high prices could spark widespread inflation that could derail growth worldwide if consumers curtail spending in response.

More than a decade after Bangladesh and China announced a Chinese Economic and Industrial Zone in Anwara upazila of Chattogram, the project remains largely on paper with no visible construction.

The Bangladesh Economic Zones Authority (Beza), which is overseeing the project, says the zone could attract $1.5 billion in investment and create more than 200,000 jobs. However, there are still no firm commitments, signed land-lease agreements, or confirmed factory setups.

Of the nearly 784 acres allocated in Anwara, only about 60 acres have been prepared, and not a single factory has been established.

Basic infrastructure on the ground is still incomplete, with utility services only partly in place. The Chattogram Water Supply and Sewerage Authority has installed a limited water supply pipeline, while the Karnaphuli Gas Distribution Company has set up a nearby gas station.

Beza has also built an administrative building and two access roads.

This reflects a broader pattern in Bangladesh’s investment landscape, where large pledges do not always translate into actual inflows. Chinese foreign direct investment also remains modest, with only a small share of announced amounts materialising.

HOW THE PROJECT BEGAN

The project dates back to June 2014, when, during a visit to China, former prime minister Sheikh Hasina proposed an exclusive economic zone for Chinese investors. Beza pursued the plan and signed an agreement with China’s commerce ministry during the visit.

The Executive Committee of the National Economic Council approved the project in September 2015 and allocated Tk 420.37 crore for the first phase, with China expected to provide a loan to fund it.

Beza later acquired land in Anwara, about 270 kilometres south of Dhaka, for the zone.

In October 2016, Beza signed a contract with China Harbour Engineering Company Limited, but the development and land-lease agreements could not be finalised, and the deal collapsed in April 2022.

Later, on July 16, 2022, China nominated the China Road and Bridge Corporation (CRBC) as the new developer. Beza signed cooperation and investment terms with CRBC later that year and finalised the shareholder agreement in October 2023.

Progress remained slow under the Awami League government. After the political change in August 2024, the interim government renewed efforts to move the project forward, but there has still been no progress on the ground.

This is happening despite stronger Dhaka-Beijing ties and rising US tariffs that are encouraging Chinese manufacturers to consider relocating factories.

Beza sources said some Chinese manufacturers visited the site last year, and around 200 investors are expected to participate in the zone, suggesting the project still has strong potential if long-standing delays are resolved.

BEZA EXPLAINS DELAYS IN NEGOTIATIONS

“Progress on the proposed Chinese economic zone has been slow due to unresolved contractual and commercial issues,” said Mohammad Zakaria Mithu, director (MIS and research) at Beza.

He said that although land acquisition is complete, no formal agreement has been signed with the Chinese side, and negotiations on the engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contract are still ongoing.

“The development agreement, which is needed to start physical work, depends on finalising the EPC contract,” he added.

Mithu also said disagreements over cost valuation under the Chinese loan framework remain a key obstacle, with both sides yet to align their expectations.

He attributed the delays mainly to prolonged negotiations and pending approvals, while a multi-ministry committee is working to resolve the issues.

Mithu added that once the EPC contract is finalised, further steps such as the development agreement, company registration and formal approval can proceed, enabling implementation.

He also said Chinese investment is expected in sectors including textile manufacturing, electronics assembly, renewable energy (solar), light engineering and agribusiness.

Meanwhile, Ashik Chowdhury, executive chairman of Beza, has outlined a 180-day roadmap to complete negotiations for the long-stalled project.

He said that although part of the land is ready, progress has been delayed due to unresolved commercial issues between the government and Chinese private partners.

“These disputes have delayed the signing of key land-lease and development agreements,” he added.

Chowdhury said the immediate focus is to resolve technical cost issues and complete administrative procedures so that groundwork can begin within six months.

He added that the goal is to shift the project from prolonged negotiations to actual industrial development.

India has ramped up purchases of Russian oil and revived alternate supplies from Africa, Iran and Venezuela to blunt a sharp crude shortfall from the crisis-ridden Middle East, analysts say.

India, the world’s third-largest oil buyer, normally sources about half of its crude through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway that has seen only a trickle of traffic since the United States and Israel launched attacks on Iran on February 28.

India’s heavy import dependence, combined with modest oil reserves compared with major consumers like China, has prompted analysts to warn that India could be among the most vulnerable to a sudden oil price hike.

But while India is grappling with disruptions to cooking gas supplies, it has so far avoided the petrol shortages that have hit some neighbouring nations.

Ship‑tracking and import data show that India has partially plugged the gap by turning to old allies, expanding promising ties and reviving suppliers it had not tapped in years.

The biggest backstop has been Russian crude -- a fuel source New Delhi spent much of the past year trying to pivot away from under stiff US tariffs.

Indian refiners imported an average of nearly 1.98 million barrels per day (bpd) from Russia in March, according to trade intelligence firm Kpler -- a sharp jump from the previous two months.

Analysts say the surge was likely aided by a temporary US waiver granted in March covering Russian oil already at sea.

“Imports rose from approximately one million bpd in January and February,” said Nikhil Dubey, an analyst at Kpler.

“This near‑doubling suggests that this additional volume was likely contracted following the sanction waiver,” he told AFP.

USEFUL PURCHASE

India likely purchased an additional 60 million barrels of Russian oil that will be delivered through April, two trade analysts said.

Washington’s exemptions have drawn criticism from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who says they complicate efforts to choke off Russia’s revenues more than four years into its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

But Kyiv gained little leverage after US President Donald Trump last week extended the waiver on Russian seaborne oil by another month.

“The extension gives Indian refiners the runway they urgently needed,” said Rahul Choudhary, vice‑president at Rystad Energy.

“Indian refiners will likely move quickly to lock in the additional barrels the extension unlocks before the May 16 deadline.”

Other markets have also aided India.

Imports from Angola averaged 327,000 bpd in March, data from Kpler shows, nearly three times what India received in February.

Industry watchers say African crude purchases were made before the United States struck Iran and have proven to be useful.

“A lot of the uptick you’re seeing from Angola in March or Nigeria in April comes because we were (already) looking at sources other than Russia,” an official at a state‑run refiner told AFP, requesting anonymity because they were not authorised to speak with journalists.

“It’s now come in handy because shipments from Iraq and most of the Middle East have fallen heavily.”

According to Kpler, crude from both Iran and Venezuela began arriving this month.

Imports from Iran averaged 276,000 bpd as of mid‑April, while shipments from Venezuela stood at around 137,000 bpd, preliminary data from Kpler shows.

The purchases have proven to be a fortuitous windfall for refiners who largely steered clear of both suppliers previously to avoid US ire.

HIGHER PRICES

Despite the diversification, the road ahead looks difficult.

India’s overall crude imports fell in March, sliding to 4.5 million bpd from 5.2 million in February, according to Kpler.

Analysts also cautioned that oil from the African nations has limits as a substitute.

“In a prolonged Iran conflict scenario, African crudes can partially backfill supply. However, they are unlikely to fully replace Middle Eastern barrels on a structural basis due to crude slate mismatches,” said Dubey, explaining Indian refineries were configured for different grades than what comes from the African countries.

Higher prices are also a problem.

“The era of cheap oil is over for now, but access has been preserved. Either way, India doesn’t have the luxury of walking away,” said Choudhary, noting that April barrels were secured at between $5 and $15 above the Brent global oil benchmark.

State‑run retailers have yet to raise pump prices, with the government instead cutting excise duties on fuel.

Some analysts warn prices could rise by as much as 28 rupees (30 cents) per litre once voting in key state elections ends later this month.

The oil ministry acknowledged Thursday that government‑owned fuel companies were incurring losses but denied that a price hike was imminent.

“India is the only country where petrol and diesel prices haven’t increased in the last four years,” it said.

The government and state oil firms “have taken relentless steps in order to insulate Indian citizens from steep increases in international prices”.

Bangladesh can increase its tax revenue from the current level of less than 7 per cent of GDP to around 15 per cent without raising tax rates by ensuring transparency, accountability and greater efficiency in tax administration, experts and economists said.

They stressed the need for urgent reforms, including separating tax policy formulation from tax collection authorities, along with institutional and procedural improvements to enhance enforcement capacity and reduce tax evasion.

The observations came on Sunday at a policy dialogue titled “Rationalising Supplementary Duty and VAT in Bangladesh: Evidence, Challenges, and Reform Pathways,” organised by the Policy Research Institute of Bangladesh with support from The M Group, Inc.

Zakir Ahmed Khan, chairman of Palli Karma-Sahayak Foundation, attended as the chief guest. The event was chaired by Zaidi Sattar.

Shamsul Huq Zahid, editor of The Financial Express, and Zakir Hossain, associate editor of Daily Samakal, shared their insights on the keynote presented by Bazlul Haque Khondker, research director of PRI, and Hafiz Choudhury, principal of The M Group.Financial news subscription

Zakir Ahmed Khan said Bangladesh’s tax potential could be significantly higher if enforcement is strengthened and systemic leakages are reduced. Proper enforcement of existing laws alone could raise revenue by 30–40 per cent, he added.

He argued that instead of comparing with other countries, Bangladesh should assess its own tax potential based on its economic structure, rates and base. With improved compliance and enforcement, the country could reach a tax-to-GDP ratio of around 15 per cent without increasing tax rates.

However, he cautioned that enforcement should not turn into “tax terrorism” but should promote voluntary compliance and trust in the system.

Khan also emphasised the need to separate tax policy formulation from tax administration under the National Board of Revenue (NBR) to improve efficiency, accountability and research capacity. He said stronger reforms, better analysis and continuous policy review are essential to unlock Bangladesh’s revenue potential and address fiscal challenges.

Zaidi Sattar said Bangladesh’s ongoing tax liberalisation reflects a structural tax deficit and weak revenue capacity, as indicated by low tax buoyancy.

He observed that heavy reliance on import tariffs, regulatory duties and supplementary duties has raised domestic prices, particularly for consumer goods, making them higher than international levels and even compared to India.Economic analysis reports

He added that although purchasing power parity suggests higher real income, high domestic prices reduce affordability and competitiveness.

Shamsul Huq Zahid said the NBR tends to rely on supplementary and regulatory duties to offset weak direct tax collection, often using high duties to protect inefficient domestic industries.

He noted that Bangladesh, once a pioneer in introducing VAT in the region, is now lagging behind countries like India and Nepal in modern tax systems such as GST, largely due to inefficiencies in tax administration.

“The NBR’s inability to generate sufficient direct tax revenue has led to growing dependence on indirect taxation, which distorts the tax structure and reduces efficiency,” he said.

The National Board of Revenue (NBR) plans to introduce a QR code system on packaged products sold in the market to curb value-added tax (VAT) evasion and improve tax compliance.

NBR Chairman Abdur Rahman Khan announced the plan during a pre-budget meeting at the organisation's headquarters in Agargaon today (26 April).

"At the initial stage, we plan to start with tobacco products. Later, it will be implemented for all packaged goods such as soap, shampoo, bottled water, and sugary items," he said.

He said the new system was intended to strengthen monitoring and reduce tax evasion in the retail market.

The NBR chairman also said individuals who provide information on tax evasion or misconduct would be rewarded.

"Those found evading taxes will face fines," he said.

Representatives of several business bodies, including BGMEA and BTMA, attended the meeting.

The Barapukuria coal mine yard in Dinajpur is now storing more than twice its designed capacity, with stocks continuing to rise and raising concerns over fire hazards, possible heap collapse and declining coal quality.

The situation has developed as the nearby Barapukuria Thermal Power Plant, operated by the Bangladesh Power Development Board (PDB) and the mine’s only coal buyer, has reduced consumption after two of its three units were shut down due to technical faults.

The yard, which has a storage capacity of 2.2 lakh tonnes, was holding about 5.7 lakh tonnes as of Tuesday. An additional 1 lakh tonnes is stored in the PDB’s own yard, which has a capacity of 60,000 tonnes.

The surplus is increasing daily, as the mine is producing around 3,000 tonnes of coal against a demand of only 700-750 tonnes.

Md Shah Alam, managing director of Barapukuria Coal Mining Company Limited, a subsidiary of state-owned Petrobangla, told The Daily Star over the phone that frequent fires are now occurring due to the excessive stockpile.

“A dedicated team is working around the clock to keep the fires under control,” he said.

POWER PLANT OUTPUT REDUCED

Abu Bakar Siddique, chief engineer of the Barapukuria Thermal Power Plant, said the facility has a total generation capacity of 525MW (megawatt), with Unit-1 and Unit-2 producing 125MW each, and Unit-3 producing 275MW.

He said only Unit-1 is currently in operation, supplying about 55-65MW to the national grid. Unit-3 has been shut since October 19, 2025, while Unit-2 has remained out of service since 2020 due to a mechanical fault.

“Unit-3, with a capacity of 275MW, is expected to resume operations by May this year. The process to overhaul Unit-2 is also underway,” he said.

Siddique added that when Units 1 and 3 operate together, the plant will require around 3,200 tonnes of coal per day.

“At that rate, about one lakh tonnes of coal will be used each month, and the current stockpile could be cleared in seven to eight months,” he said. “We are also working to expand the PDB’s coal yard capacity by an additional 50,000 tonnes.”

TRADING BLAMES

Officials from both the mine and the power plant have blamed each other for the growing coal stockpile.

Plant authorities say they requested a temporary suspension of coal production, while mine officials argue that output cannot be stopped due to technical limitations, safety risks and contractual obligations.

“We had asked the coal mine authorities to reduce coal extraction to help control spontaneous combustion and reduce other risks, but we received no response,” Siddique said.

Md Shah Alam rejected the suggestion of halting production. “There is no scope to stop mining once it begins, as it could increase risks, including a higher chance of spontaneous combustion,” he said.

“We are now extracting coal in two shifts instead of three,” he added.

He also said the crisis has worsened following a 2019 policy change that made the power plant the mine’s sole buyer, removing the option to sell surplus coal in the open market through tenders.

Monir Hossain Chowdhury, spokesperson for the Energy and Mineral Resources Division, said once coal is extracted, it becomes the property of the power plant.

“We do not have any mechanism to send that coal elsewhere,” he said.

He added, “It depends entirely on the plant authorities. Due to reduced power plant operations, the mine is facing difficulties as it lacks storage capacity. We are concerned about the issue, and the Power Division is working to resume production at the plant.”

Based on March global prices and the current exchange rate, the import cost of octane is Tk105.73 per litre. After the latest price hike – driven by supply constraints and rising global prices – it is being sold at Tk140 per litre at pumps.

This means consumers are paying Tk34.27 more than the import cost per litre. Of this, Tk27.57 goes to the government as import duty, VAT, development surcharge, transport costs, and margins for state-owned distributors.

When local transport costs and dealers' commissions are included, the total cost reaches Tk151.61 per litre – Tk11.61 higher than the retail price. The government counts this difference as a subsidy.

This creates a paradox: the government collects Tk27.57 per litre in taxes and charges, while also providing a subsidy of Tk11.61 per litre.

"This raises a valid question as to whether the government is truly subsidising octane," economist Selim Raihan, executive director of the South Asian Network on Economic Modeling (Sanem), told The Business Standard.

The same is true for petrol, which is usually priced Tk4 lower than octane.

However, the situation differs markedly for diesel, the most widely used fuel in public and goods transport, irrigation, inland water transport, and fishing.

Rising global prices have pushed the import cost of diesel to Tk148.06 per litre, which increases to Tk203.84 after adding duties, taxes, and operational and marketing costs. However, the government has fixed the retail price at Tk115 per litre – even after a Tk15 increase – effectively subsidising more than Tk88.84 per litre. This figure still includes over Tk55.78 (or 37%) in taxes and other costs.

Speaking to this newspaper, analysts and consumer rights groups say this "subsidy" exists only because of the fuel oil tax burden, as fuel oil remains among the major revenue sources for the government. They argue that if taxes were reduced or waived temporarily, and only distribution costs were added to the import price, octane could be sold at a much lower price than it is now, requiring no subsidy.

Major economies in the region, including India and Pakistan, slashed fuel oil taxes to lower price shocks on the people. India marginally increased the price of premium-grade oil, but kept the prices of the most-consumed diesel and petrol unchanged.

Though Pakistan raised oil prices, it exempted or slashed taxes for diesel and petrol. The country also introduced free bus services in cities, cash subsidies for bikers and farmers.

The EU is planning to cut electricity taxes and provide consumers with targeted and temporary support. The USA offers tax breaks to lessen the impact of gasoline price hikes and politicians there are calling for the federal tax to be exempted – 18.4 cents per gallon.

Price hikes in Bangladesh, effective from 19 April, were not backed by any such measures.

Maintaining existing VAT and tax rates while raising retail prices in line with international trends amounts to an "extortionist approach," where revenue generation appears to take precedence over public welfare, said Shamsul Alam, energy adviser at the Consumers Association of Bangladesh (Cab).

'No hike' means Tk2,764cr in monthly subsidy

If the government had followed the automatic pricing formula to set fuel prices in April, following the rise in international market rates after the Iran war, the price of diesel would have been Tk155.46 per litre, octane Tk148.93, and petrol Tk144.93.

Following the conditions of a loan taken from the International Monetary Fund in 2023, the government began adjusting prices monthly through an automatic system from the following year. However, the government did not increase fuel prices on 31 March.

Under the method, the current month's price is determined by the average "Platts-based" market price from the 21st of the month before last to the 20th of the following month. This formula is used to set the prices for diesel and octane, while the price of petrol is always fixed at Tk4 less than that of octane.

According to a briefing by the energy ministry prepared ahead of the latest price hike on 18 April, the government had been providing subsidies of nearly Tk45 per litre for diesel and Tk29 per litre for octane prior to the adjustment.

Energy Division estimates suggest that following the rise in international market prices after the Iran war, the government would have had to provide Tk2,764 crore in subsidies every month based on average demand if domestic prices remained unchanged. Of this amount, Tk2,452 crore would have been allocated to diesel and Tk145 crore to octane, with the remainder subsidising petrol and kerosene.

However, as a result of the government's decision to increase fuel prices on 18 April, the monthly subsidy burden will be reduced by approximately Tk800 crore. This means that even after the price hike, the government will still provide nearly Tk2,000 crore in fuel subsidies each month.

Despite the subsidy for octane being significantly lower than the vast amount spent on diesel, the Energy Division justified the steeper price increase for octane as a means of ensuring social and economic balance.

The ministry noted that diesel is directly linked to agricultural activities, the transport sector, freight movement, manufacturing, and the livelihoods of the general public. In contrast, octane consumption is relatively limited and primarily concentrated among higher-income groups.

Therefore, when adjusting prices, the Energy Division considered it a logical and policy-acceptable approach to place a comparatively lower burden on diesel while implementing a higher adjustment for octane, given the potential impact on public life and overall economic activity.

There are options

In the wake of the Iran war and the subsequent rise in fuel prices, several countries across Europe and Asia have attempted to keep prices manageable by reducing fuel duties. Pakistan, a fellow South Asian nation, has also slashed taxes on fuel. However, as Bangladesh has opted not to follow suit, consumers are forced to purchase fuel at much higher prices.

Selim Raihan said that the immediate hike in transport fares and commodity prices following the adjustment of fuel prices has had a direct impact on the general public.

He continued, "A portion of the revenue from fuel sales is transferred by the Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation (BPC) into their development fund, money essentially collected from the consumers. Temporarily suspending these transfers could have mitigated some of the pressure from the price hike.

"Similarly, while the commission rate for petrol pump owners remains unchanged, their total commission has increased significantly due to the higher sales value; a cap or adjustment could have been introduced here. Furthermore, a temporary waiver in the tax structure, similar to measures taken by neighbouring countries, could have been considered.

"In my view, by considering these three steps together – reducing taxes, pausing transfers to the BPC development fund, and implementing effective controls on commissions – the government could have achieved a more tolerable price adjustment.

"While this might have placed some pressure on revenue management, it would have lessened the direct impact on ordinary citizens. In the current situation, a transparent and balanced pricing policy is essential, prioritising consumer interests while moving towards long-term sustainable solutions."

Shamsul Alam, Cab's energy adviser, said reducing VAT and taxes on fuel is an accepted global practice to stabilise markets, cushion the impact of price spirals, and provide relief to consumers.

"Despite rising global oil price, our actual import costs remain significantly lower than what is being presented by the government," he pointed out.

At a time when the government is struggling to ensure adequate fuel supply to meet demand, such pricing policies effectively deprive citizens of their right to fair pricing, he believed.

Treating the fuel sector primarily as a profit-making entity reflects a disregard for the hardships faced by consumers, Shamsul said.

Bangladesh is not unique to global shocks, but it lags behind regional countries in managing the crisis judiciously, analysts say.

Cab Vice-President SM Nazer Hossain said the government, instead of raising fuel prices amid consumers' hardship, could have temporarily exempted duties.

"Though Bangladesh's recent fuel price change is a response to global pressures, the policy choices have raised some valid concerns," said Fahmida Khatun, executive director, Centre for Policy Dialogue.

The economist referred to the immediate effects of oil price hikes translated into increased transportation costs, hitting low- and middle-income households hardest.

Instead, she said, the government could have taken some practical steps to reduce the impact of rising fuel prices. "For example, the government could have temporarily reduced fuel taxes, restrained dealer commissions for now, and avoided tapping into the Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation development fund unless absolutely essential."

While these actions would not eliminate the price hike completely, they could have relieved the burden on ordinary people, Fahmida added.

Understandably, she said, the government's limited fiscal capacity means it cannot afford large subsidies for long. "But the adjustment could have been managed more carefully, with the burden shared more fairly across stakeholders, which would also improve public confidence."

There should be a balanced approach in light of high inflation and the hardships faced by common people, Fahmida said, suggesting that targeted support for the poor should be provided through fiscal adjustments and improved energy-sector efficiency.

How countries are responding to oil shocks

Regional economies such as India and Pakistan opted to lower fuel taxes to keep pressure on people lower. Excepting marginal increase in premium-grade fuel – Rs2 per litre, India remains among a few countries like Madagascar that have not hiked fuel prices since the Middle East war began. Pump prices of petrol and diesel in India remain at levels seen four years ago.

Rather, in March, ahead of elections in some states, India's finance ministry reduced the excise duty on petrol from Rs13 to Rs3 per litre. Similarly, the duty on diesel was slashed from Rs10 to zero.

It is unofficially estimated that this decision could result in an annual revenue loss of approximately Rs1.55 trillion.

Indian Oil Minister Hardeep Singh Puri wrote on X that oil companies were facing losses of around Rs24 per litre on petrol and Rs30 on diesel due to high prices in the international market. To mitigate those losses, the government has provided a significant waiver in revenue income, he said.

Reducing the duty at current prices will help decrease the annual losses of oil marketing companies by 30% to 40%, Puri said.

On the other hand, to limit exports and support the exporting companies, which include the private firms, the Indian finance ministry earlier this month increased the tax on diesel exports to Rs55.5 per ⁠litre from Rs21.5 per litre.

Though the world's third-largest fuel oil importer, India also exports refined oil to a number of countries, including Bangladesh. The export tax hike will affect Bangladesh's diesel import from India through the pipeline.

Pakistan raised domestic fuel oil prices much earlier than Bangladesh, but drastically slashed the petroleum levy to zero for diesel. The tax cut brought down the petrol price by Rs80 per litre.

Apart from adjusting fuel prices, Pakistan introduced free bus services in major cities and targeted subsidies for bikers, farmers and transport operators to cushion the public from the 55% hike in oil prices.

Registered motorcyclists in Sindh will get Rs2,000 each a month – the equivalent of a Rs100 subsidy per litre for 20 litres of fuel.

Farmers will receive Rs1,500 per acre to cover diesel costs, while heavy transport operators will receive fixed subsidies on the condition that bus and truck fares are not increased.

Registered bus and truck owners in Punjab will receive up to Rs1,00,000 in subsidies to prevent them from passing the increased fuel costs on to passengers and consumers.

Like most finance professionals, I have always taken a keen interest in the stock market since we have a fair understanding of how capital markets function and the intrinsic value of shares.

I have been a retail investor in Bangladesh's stock market for almost four decades and have witnessed both the rise and fall of the market over the years. I was also an active investor during the painful debacles of 1996 and 2010, two defining episodes when excessive speculation was followed by steep corrections that wiped out the savings of many ordinary investors. Having observed those cycles closely, I was fortunate to act prudently and exit at the proper time on both occasions.

My understanding of the capital market also comes from professional experience. I handled the largest initial public offering of Lafarge Surma Cement in 2003, when Bangladesh's capital market was still at an early stage of development. During my tenure there, I worked closely with many market intermediaries including merchant banks, investment banks, mutual funds and stockbrokers' associations. These experiences gave me insight into the workings of the market and the challenges faced by retail investors, institutional investors and listed companies, as well as firms planning to go public.

The stock market can play a vital role in Bangladesh's economic development by mobilising savings, financing productive enterprises, and creating long-term wealth for citizens. Yet for many ordinary investors, the experience has too often been marked by disappointment, volatility and loss.

Bangladesh has witnessed painful market episodes in 1996 and again in 2010, when excessive speculation drove prices far beyond fundamentals before sharp corrections erased the savings of countless retail investors. These events were not merely market cycles. They exposed structural weaknesses that still deserve serious attention.

A retail-dominated market

Bangladesh's capital market remains heavily driven by retail participation. Individual investors are an important part of any healthy market, but when a market lacks sufficient participation from pension funds, insurance companies, mutual funds and other long-term institutions, prices can become more vulnerable to rumours, manipulation and short-term trading behaviour.

In many cases, retail investors enter after prices have already risen sharply, driven by fear of missing out. More informed participants often exit during these rallies and re-enter during downturns when valuations become attractive. This mismatch repeatedly transfers wealth from less-informed participants to better-prepared ones.

Why retail investors often lose money

A recurring feature of the market is herding behaviour. Buying because others are buying and selling because others are selling. Instead of analysing company earnings, cash flows, governance standards or industry prospects, many investors rely on informal tips, social circles or online speculation.

This is understandable. Fundamental analysis requires time, knowledge and discipline. Most people have professions and responsibilities outside finance. Expecting every small investor to become a securities analyst is unrealistic.

That is why well-functioning markets around the world rely on professional intermediaries such as mutual funds, pension managers, research firms and licensed advisers. These institutions help channel household savings into diversified and professionally managed investments.

The problem of low-quality listings

Another longstanding concern is the presence of weak or inactive listed companies. Firms that remain on the exchange despite poor disclosures, irregular annual general meetings, prolonged dividend suspension, weak operations or little commercial activity.

When such companies remain listed for years, they can become fertile ground for speculative trading, especially low-capitalisation shares with limited free float. These stocks are easier to corner, easier to move sharply and easier to use in pump-and-dump schemes that trap unsuspecting investors.

A stock exchange should reward productive enterprise, not preserve shells that no longer serve investors or the economy.

Rebuilding confidence in collective investment

Bangladesh's mutual fund sector has had a mixed history. Past governance failures damaged public trust. However, newer and better-managed asset managers have begun to demonstrate stronger professionalism, improved compliance and better disclosure standards.

This is encouraging. A vibrant mutual fund industry can reduce reckless direct speculation by giving ordinary savers access to diversified portfolios managed by professionals. In neighbouring India, systematic investment plans and mutual funds have helped broaden disciplined retail participation over time.

Bangladesh can move in a similar direction but only if transparency and governance are non-negotiable.

What should be done

1. Clean up the listed universe

There should be a comprehensive review of companies that remain listed despite prolonged non-compliance, weak operations, poor disclosures, failure to hold annual general meetings or repeated inability to provide reasonable returns to shareholders. Firms that no longer meet the spirit of public listing should be required to restructure, merge, move to a separate category or eventually exit the market after a fair transition period. A credible stock exchange must reflect productive enterprises and investor confidence, not inactive or persistently weak entities. There is an urgent need to address this issue if confidence in the market is to be restored.

2. Strengthen surveillance, enforcement and brokerage transparency

Unusual trading activity in illiquid low-fundamental stocks should be detected quickly using modern surveillance systems. Manipulation must lead to visible penalties, disgorgement, trading bans and prosecution where appropriate. Enforcement must be swift enough to deter repeat offenders.

At the same time, brokerage houses must maintain far higher standards of transparency and client protection. There have been recurring complaints of unauthorised trades, margin accounts opened or activated without clear consent, and inadequate disclosure of risks and charges. In some cases, clients are also given informal recommendations on which shares to buy without adequate research, professional competence or proper suitability assessment.

Such practices can severely harm retail investors and further weaken trust in the market. Stronger oversight, mandatory digital confirmations, clearer documentation, professional standards for advisory services and swift action against violations are urgently needed.

3. Make mutual funds fully transparent

Every mutual fund should publish standardised monthly performance data, portfolio allocations, fees, historical returns, benchmark comparisons and net asset value (NAV) on fund websites and a central exchange portal. Investors should be able to compare products easily before investing.

4. Expand institutional participation

Policies that encourage pension funds, insurance companies and long-term domestic institutions to participate responsibly can help stabilise markets and improve price discovery.

5. Invest in investor education

Retail investors need simple practical education: diversification, valuation basics, risk management, avoiding leverage, recognising manipulation and distinguishing investing from speculation. They also need constant reminders through public awareness campaigns, brokerage communications and market institutions to be cautious about investing without adequate knowledge or relying solely on rumours and tips. A more informed investor base is essential for a healthier and more stable market.

6. Develop a reliable stock analysis platform

A central digital platform should be developed to provide investors with easy access to company fundamentals, financial ratios, dividend history, earnings trends, governance disclosures and comparative sector data. Such a platform could also include independent research tools and model-based recommendations such as buy, hold or sell, based on transparent methodologies and regular updates. This would help retail investors make more informed decisions, reduce dependence on rumours and tips, and promote a more research-driven investment culture in the market.

Investing is not gambling

Markets involve risk, but risk is not the same as gambling. Investing means allocating capital based on analysis, discipline and long-term expectations. Speculation based purely on hearsay, rumours or blind momentum is closer to chance than informed decision-making.

For many families, market losses are not numbers on a screen. They are years of hard-earned savings. Bangladesh owes these citizens a market built on fairness, transparency and trust.

The country does not need another speculative boom. It needs a credible capital market where sound companies raise funds, disciplined investors earn reasonable returns and confidence is built through rules that are enforced consistently.

That transformation is still possible but only if reform is pursued with urgency.

Bangladesh will not be able to realise its ambition of becoming a trillion-dollar economy by 2034 unless it revives investment, foreign investors and development partners said yesterday.

Without a turnaround in the investment climate, the country also risks falling short on other goals, such as sustained economic growth and job creation, said Jean Pesme, division director of the World Bank for Bangladesh and Bhutan.

At a meeting of the Foreign Investors’ Chamber of Commerce and Industry (FICCI) in Dhaka, he said attracting investment requires coordinated reforms in revenue policy, the financial sector and the wider business environment.

He said implementing only one reform in isolation would deliver limited results.

Foreign direct investment stood at just $1.6 billion in the fiscal year 2024-25, or around 0.33 percent of GDP, well below regional peers. Private investment was projected at 22 percent of GDP in FY25, the lowest level in 11 years, according to official data.

Pesme said global experience shows that tax incentives alone cannot offset a weak investment climate.

“Even where governments reduce the marginal effective tax rate and see an increase in foreign direct investment (FDI), the inflow is eight times higher when strong institutions, macroeconomic stability and rule of law are already in place,” he added.

He commented that Bangladesh’s revenue challenge lies less in tax rates and more in weak administration, governance shortcomings and extensive tax expenditures, which are almost as large as total collections.

According to the World Bank’s regional division director, the country depends heavily on tax holidays and sector-specific exemptions, especially for the ready-made garment sector. This creates distortions, opens the door to rent-seeking and increases resistance to reform, as changes inevitably produce winners and losers.

He highlighted the need to work on the investment climate and fiscal reform simultaneously so that they combine and reinforce each other.

“And when you look at the experience globally, the countries that really try to attract FDI through incentives are the ones that already have strong macro stability, rule of law, efficient administration and strong infrastructure.”

He also emphasised broadening the tax base and introducing greater uniformity by eliminating rent-seeking behaviour, reducing distortions, improving compliance and limiting incentives to game the system.

Predictability and credibility, he said, are essential.

“Improving tax administration can really bring results. We think revenue collection, as well as managing tax expenditure and services, is very important as it is about the quality of public spending.”

The results are not coming immediately, but the earlier you start, signal where you want to go, and then implement, in a systematic way, the better, he added.

Chandan Sapkota, country economist at the Asian Development Bank (ADB) resident mission in Bangladesh, said investors consistently raise concerns about taxes, especially the role of the National Board of Revenue (NBR).

“When we meet investors, everybody talks about taxes because their investment decisions are being impacted by NBR,” said Sapkota.

He said NBR often overrides investment promotion agencies. For instance, they introduce an investment facilitation programme, but in the middle of the year, NBR can issue a regulation that effectively nullifies it.

“Basically, there is no predictability of what is going to happen. So, I can see a reason why everybody says NBR,” said Sapkota.

Drawing on his experience in five countries, he said, “I think no other country has this kind of system, where you have agency that supersedes pretty much everything.”

To raise tax collection, he emphasised digitisation and stronger compliance.

The ADB economist said, “Even if you increase taxes, if the compliance regime is not tackled, your tax will not actually increase that much, but then people who are already paying taxes will be burdened more.”

He said the tax administration system must make it very difficult to avoid paying taxes. For example, it’s impossible to evade taxes in India, because everybody has a Aadhaar Card without which none can do anything.

In Bangladesh, he said, the national ID card should be linked with TIN and bank accounts to close that loop. He also suggested reducing multiple VAT rates to two or three to reduce leakages.

“The incentive mechanism, when they rationalise the taxes, should be designed in such a way that this is growth enhancing, productivity enhancing, rather than helping some sort of zombie firms to sustain operation for the sake of employment,” said Sapkota.

Fahmida Khatun, executive director of local think tank Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), said tax exemptions in Bangladesh continue indefinitely despite limited fiscal space. “If you really want to incentivize, there should be a sunset clause. But, once an exemption is in place, that goes forever,” she said.

AK Khan, chairperson of Business Initiative Leading Development (BUILD), said local investors face similar frustrations.

As a local investor, we also feel that there are a lot of constraints when we do or think of investments, which shows a huge gap between policy and practice, said Khan.

He pointed to weak coordination among ministries. NBR, the commerce ministry and other ministries often adopt separate policies on the same subject, leading to conflict and uncertainty.

And there is a serious conflict in policies that frustrate investors. He suggested running institutional reform, institutional coordination, and policy consistent and predictable.

M Masrur Reaz, chairman and chief executive of Policy Exchange Bangladesh, presented a paper at the event. He said higher corporate taxes raise the effective cost of investment and cited the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) data showing that FDI falls 3.7 percent for every 1 percent rise in the tax rate.

Bangladesh ranks 105th out of 141 countries in the Global Competitiveness Index due to weak business dynamism, poor product market conditions, low skills performance and infrastructure deficits, he said.

To build an investment-enabling fiscal framework, Reaz called for tax reform, greater efficiency in the annual development programme, institutional reform, improved budget credibility and fiscal consolidation.

Rupali Huque Chowdhury, president of FICCI, and Shams Zaman, a FICCI director, also spoke at the event.

Garment exporters yesterday urged the government to cut the source tax from 1 percent to between 0.5 and 0.65 percent, citing ongoing difficulties caused by domestic challenges and external pressures.

They also proposed keeping the reduced rate in place for the next five years.

In addition, they called for exemption from the 10 percent income tax on export incentive receipts, saying that export incentives have already been reduced as part of preparations for Bangladesh’s graduation from the least developed countries (LDC) group.

The Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA) and the Bangladesh Knitwear Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BKMEA) made these proposals in their budget recommendations for fiscal year 2026-27 (FY27), which were submitted to the National Board of Revenue (NBR) yesterday.

Both associations proposed setting the corporate tax rate for subcontracting factories at 12 percent instead of the current 25 to 30 percent, arguing that it should be aligned with existing policies where green factories pay 10 percent and non-green factories pay 12 percent.

They also said subcontracting factories, which place work orders with other factories, currently pay a 5 percent source tax on contract payments and demanded that it be reduced to 1 percent in the upcoming budget.

In addition, they proposed fixing the bond licence fee at Tk10,000 for three years, along with relaxed rules for sub-contracting and bond licence locking.

They also recommended exempting VAT and import duties on the import of man-made fibre and non-cotton yarn, saying this is necessary to expand production using man-made fibres and increase global market share.

Globally, around 75 percent of garments are made from man-made fibres, while in Bangladesh, over 70 percent of exports are cotton-based and only around 30 percent come from man-made fibres, meaning the country is missing significant opportunities.

They added that while cotton imports are already duty-free, similar tariff-free access should be extended to man-made fibre and yarn to stay competitive.

RMG UNDER PRESSURE AS EXPORTS FALL, COSTS RISE

The BGMEA, in its proposal, said the garment sector is facing an unprecedented set of challenges both at home and abroad, including global recession, geopolitical instability and tariff wars that have slowed export growth.

Internal issues such as rising costs of doing business, weak ease of doing business, and structural weaknesses are also affecting competitiveness.

Recent export data shows garment exports fell by 3.73 percent in July-February of FY26 compared to the same period of the previous fiscal year, with earnings continuously declining since August 2025.

As a result, factories are operating below full capacity, increasing fixed costs and overall production expenses.

New work orders have also slowed, with Bangladesh Bank data showing that back-to-back letters of credit (LC) openings for raw material imports fell by 6.79 percent in dollar terms during July-January of FY26.

Lower export orders, combined with reciprocal US tariffs and higher Chinese exports to Europe at competitive prices, have reduced export prices, with the average unit price of garments falling by 1.76 percent in July-February of FY26.

In the first seven months of FY26, imports of capital machinery dropped by 37.87 percent in the textile sector and 12.44 percent in the garment sector, continuing a negative trend from the previous fiscal year.

This reflects declining capacity and a weak investment climate, raising concerns about the sector’s future.

The data shows that the country’s main export-earning sector, the RMG industry, is going through a critical period, with around 400 garment factories closing over the past three years while many others remain financially weak.

At present, lending interest rates have risen to 12 to 15 percent, while energy costs have increased sharply amid ongoing shortages. Gas prices rose by 286 percent between 2017 and 2023, and electricity tariffs increased by 33 percent over the past five years.

Bangladesh is facing a deepening structural revenue strain, with the National Board of Revenue (NBR) recording an average annual shortfall of nearly Tk59,000 crore over the past five fiscal years, according to the Policy Research Institute (PRI).

The observation was made by PRI Research Director Bazlul Haque Khondker while presenting findings on the need to rationalise the country's supplementary duty (SD) and value-added tax (VAT) structure at a discussion held at PRI's office in Dhaka on Saturday.

He said Bangladesh's growing dependence on high and complex indirect taxation is increasingly unsustainable for a transitioning economy.

Khondker noted that the country already imposes some of the highest indirect tax rates in the region, particularly on beverages, where the rate stands at 43.75%, compared to 40% in India and 30% in the Maldives.

He pointed to significant distortions within the tax structure, citing the wide gap between 250% tax on alcoholic beer and 55% on energy drinks. According to him, such disparities distort consumer behaviour, pushing demand toward lower-taxed products and ultimately weakening overall revenue efficiency.

The PRI also cautioned that frequent and unpredictable changes in tax policy are contributing to investor uncertainty. It said multinational companies are increasingly factoring Bangladesh's SD and VAT regime into their decisions on whether to remain in or exit the market.

To achieve the government's target of raising foreign direct investment (FDI) to 2.5% of GDP by 2030, the think tank stressed the need for what it described as "investor-grade tax certainty."

Against the backdrop of widening revenue gaps and a long-term goal of achieving a 15% tax-to-GDP ratio by 2035, PRI proposed a set of structural reforms.

These include, first, fixing the order of tax imposition by separating supplementary duty from the VAT base and applying it at a single point to prevent cascading effects.

Second, it recommended introducing specific health-based taxes, shifting away from price-based taxation toward levies determined by sugar or alcohol content, a move it said could significantly improve revenue from food and beverage products.

Third, PRI called for stronger data systems to support tax administration, including detailed, category-wise reporting of SD and VAT to enhance monitoring, enforcement, and policy design.

Most listed manufacturers faced pressure last year from high borrowing costs and weak demand, with many sectors reporting falling profits or losses.

Despite that, a small number of large companies maintained strong earnings.

Data compiled by Lion City Advisory show only four listed firms posted profits above Tk1,000 crore in 2025.

The four that cross Tk1,000cr profit mark

According to the analysis, multinational telecom operator Grameenphone recorded the highest profit among listed companies at Tk2,908 crore in 2025.

Square Pharmaceuticals ranked second with Tk2,594 crore in profit.

Power producer United Power Generation posted Tk1,097 crore in profit, while electronics and appliance maker Walton earned Tk1,095 crore.

Robi came close to the threshold, reporting a profit of Tk937 crore.

On the loss side, Bashundhara Paper Mills topped the list with a loss of Tk477 crore. Titas Gas followed with Tk450 crore, while Energypac posted a loss of Tk213 crore.

In 2024, four firms also crossed the Tk1,000 crore profit mark, again led by Grameenphone at Tk3,630 crore, followed by Square, Walton and United Power Generation.

Titas Gas was the biggest loss-maker in 2024 with Tk1,502 crore in losses. Power Grid and Desco ranked next with losses of Tk449 crore and Tk316 crore, respectively.

Citing three major economic challenges, the government has prepared its position paper ahead of a United Nations hearing on Bangladesh’s request to defer its graduation from the least developed country (LDC) category.

In a virtual meeting of the United Nations Committee for Development Policy (UNCDP) on April 29, Bangladesh will seek a three-year deferral of its scheduled graduation in November this year.

Dhaka plans to highlight a serious gap in preparedness, incomplete core reforms and the economic fallout from the US-Israel war on Iran as key reasons for postponement.

In addition, Bangladesh will raise concerns over vulnerabilities in the financial sector, weaknesses in the banking system, an export slowdown due to volatile global supply chains, high interest rates and an uncertain business and investment climate, said Md Abdur Rahim Khan, additional secretary to the commerce ministry.

Khan, who is also in charge of the commerce secretary, told The Daily Star over the phone that Bangladesh’s case for deferment has strengthened after Nepal, another South Asian LDC set to graduate, also applied to the UN for a three-year extension.

Bangladesh, Nepal and Lao PDR are scheduled to graduate from LDC status on November 24 this year. However, Bangladesh and Nepal have now sought to delay the transition until 2029, citing domestic and external economic pressures.

Earlier on February 19, the newly elected government sent a letter to Jose Antonio Ocampo, chair of the UNCDP, requesting that the preparatory period be extended until November 24, 2029, mentioning that more time is needed to ensure readiness.

Following Bangladesh’s request, the UNCDP discussed the issue at its annual meeting in February and agreed on a process to assess the proposal.

The UNCDP has now called a public hearing on Bangladesh’s request on April 29. After the hearing, the committee will submit its recommendations to the United Nations Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC) in June.

ECOSOC will then forward its assessment to the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA), which is scheduled to meet in September. The final decision on the deferment will be taken through a vote at the UNGA.

A UN assessment report last month said Bangladesh still faces serious gaps in its readiness for graduation, as its economy continues to be affected by both domestic and international shocks, including the US-Israel war on Iran.

The report highlighted a series of disruptions between 2017 and 2026, including climate vulnerability, the Rohingya crisis, a prolonged macroeconomic slowdown that predated the regime change, the Covid-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine war, inflation, and pressure on the balance of payments.

It also noted that while Bangladesh meets all three criteria for graduation, significant risks persist, including the loss of trade preferences, fiscal and financial vulnerabilities and weak institutional coordination.

The report stressed the need for urgent reforms, stronger implementation capacity, adequate policy space and a whole-of-society approach to ensure a smooth and sustainable transition.

It added that a difficult political changeover and prolonged macroeconomic stress have eroded socio-economic gains, increasing risks linked to graduation.

Rising import costs for fossil fuels have created operational constraints, with gas shortages worsening due to the Middle East conflict, the report said. Economic growth slowed from 7.1 percent in FY22 to 3.5 percent in FY25, weakening momentum ahead of graduation.

Inflation has outpaced wages, pushing millions into hardship and vulnerability.

Private investment has also weakened, with capital machinery imports falling from $5.1 billion to $2.8 billion during the 2019-2024 period. The labour market has also come under pressure, with nearly 1.9 million jobs lost between 2023 and 2024, disproportionately affecting women.

The Bank Resolution Act-2026, passed with new provisions added overnight, is effectively rehabilitating bank looters and putting the entire banking sector at risk, economic experts, academics, and activists said yesterday.

Clause 18(a) of the law could allow those who previously looted the sector in a planned manner to regain ownership, the speakers warned at a roundtable organised by Voice for Reform at the BDBL building in Karwan Bazar, Dhaka.

Badiul Alam Majumdar, secretary of Shushashoner Jonno Nagorik (Shujan), noted that many of those who looted the sector are yet to be brought to justice.

He said all masterminds behind the takeover of Islami Bank Bangladesh, including S Alam, should be held accountable.

He outlined three steps needed to put the banking sector on a firm footing. First, identifying and ensuring exemplary punishment for perpetrators of banking fraud. Second, implementing systemic reforms such as cashless transactions to prevent recurrence. Lastly, completing institutional reforms, including making Bangladesh Bank an independent constitutional body.

AKM Waresul Karim, dean of the School of Business and Economics at North South University, said the government had resorted to “very low-grade tactics” over the proposed ordinance.

He criticised the Bank Resolution Act as one of its provisions allows shareholders who held ownership immediately before a bank was placed under resolution to apply for reinstatement.

He said the provision blocks the return of long-standing institutional owners like Kuwait Finance House while opening the door for those who acquired ownership by creating “pressure through the DGFI” or through other unethical means.

Toufic Ahmad Choudhury, former director general of the Bangladesh Institute of Bank Management (BIBM), called for bringing willful defaulters to book, saying that no resolution measures would yield results unless those responsible for the current crisis are punished.

He also cautioned that rescheduled loans should not have their default status changed until fully repaid – a rule routinely flouted as elections approach, when defaulters reschedule debts.

“Through this process, they remove themselves from the list of defaulters and become ‘regular’ borrowers. Subsequently, they take the opportunity to secure hundreds of crores of taka in additional loans from the same banks,” he said.

Shawkat Hossain Masum, head of online at Prothom Alo, said it was inevitable that some banks in the country would reach the point of insolvency.

He stated that in November 2022, the central bank claimed that there were no problems in the banking sector, even though the real situation was more or less known to everyone. “It was not that Bangladesh Bank was unaware; rather, it was either helpless in the face of politicisation, complicit in it, or both.”

He claimed that the interim government opted for merging troubled banks as “no government wants to bear the stigma” of closing banks.

Considering various realities, he said merging two weak banks and making the initiative successful is already very difficult. “Expecting five weak banks to merge and succeed together is a very remote aspiration.”

Meanwhile, Professor Mushtaq Khan of SOAS University of London said the interim government should have nationalised or confiscated assets of individuals involved in bank looting.

“Failing to do so was a major mistake,” he said, noting that the manner of the looting makes recovery through collateral seizure difficult.

Sarwar Tusher, a joint convener of the National Citizen Party (NCP), accused the current BNP-led government of setting “extreme examples of politicisation” in the economy within two months of taking office.

Criticising BB Governor Md Mostaqur Rahman, the NCP leader said the governor was a “politically affiliated individual” who reportedly has “past links with S Alam”.

He went on to allege that several ministers of the new government have connections with the controversial business group, warning that a major crisis in the banking sector, similar to that in the energy sector, may be imminent.

Shams Mahmud, former president of the Dhaka Chamber of Commerce & Industry, said Islami Bank was captured through the stock market.

Instead of direct acquisition as entrepreneurs, the bank’s shares were quietly purchased through various anonymous groups and later transferred to a specific group, he added.

“Even if the front door is closed through banking laws, such looting cannot be stopped if the back door, like the stock market, remains open,” said Mahmud.

Asif Khan, president of CFA Society Bangladesh, suggested issuing long-term bonds to depositors as an immediate measure to heal the deep wounds in the banking sector.

He said that while small depositors could be fully repaid, larger depositors might need to accept some “haircut,” or partial losses.

Bangladesh’s mobile and broadband internet services rank among the worst in the world despite a large subscriber base, and a connectivity-led reform plan is being prepared to address the challenge, Rehan Asad, the prime minister’s adviser on telecom and ICT, said yesterday.

Speaking at a seminar titled “New Telecom Policy: Expectations of Entrepreneurs”, organised by the Telecom and Technology Reporters Network Bangladesh, he said the government sees better connectivity as the key to solving long-standing structural problems in the sector.

“Nothing is more important than connectivity for this government. And that connectivity means both mobile and broadband services. It is not either-or -- it is both,” he said.

Asad said Bangladesh is among the top 10 countries by mobile subscriptions, but service quality remains very poor.

“Even in South Asia, Nepal and Bhutan are ahead of us,” he said.

He added that broadband services are also weak. “In broadband, we are in an equally bad or worse position -- 141st out of 153 countries in terms of service quality,” he said.

“These are not my findings. They come from global reports by GSMA and the International Telecommunication Union,” he added.

He said the government plans to fix these problems by rapidly expanding mobile and broadband infrastructure.

“We want to connect 90 percent of the population with 5G and provide 100 Mbps internet to 90 percent of users,” he said.

He said the goal is to ensure consistent internet service across both urban and rural areas, so users no longer face uncertainty in accessing basic connectivity.

The second priority is to build a unified digital ecosystem through a nationwide digital identity system.

He explained that each citizen will receive a digital ID linked to a digital wallet that can connect with banking and mobile financial services.

The government is studying global models such as Singapore’s Singpass and Estonia’s digital system, with plans to begin rollout within the next 12 to 18 months.

The third priority is to turn Bangladesh into an AI-enabled economy, he said, adding that artificial intelligence will be introduced in education and industry.

The fourth priority is reforming the telecom tax system.

“When someone recharges Tk 100, they receive only Tk 62 worth of service. The remaining Tk 38 goes to the government,” he said.

“We want to examine the whole value chain so that a person can receive Tk 80 to Tk 90 worth of service.”

He added that Bangladesh is the third-largest collector of telecom taxes globally, which also affects affordability, including access to smartphones.

Asad said the reforms will require coordination between industry players and government agencies, and that discussions with stakeholders are already underway.

Not all problems will be solved immediately, he said, adding that the current work marks the start of a longer reform process.

Sumon Ahmed Sabir, deputy managing director of Fiber@Home, said at the event that policies and guidelines enacted by the interim government unfairly allowed foreign entities to obtain licences across multiple layers.

“The cross-layer empowerment of foreign entities could ultimately lead to ‘super-dominance’ in mobile infrastructure by one or two companies,” he said.

He also warned of risks to national security and data governance.

Some representatives of local companies at the event also alleged that the Bangladesh Telecommunication Regulatory Commission (BTRC) formulated policies and guidelines without adequate consultation with industry stakeholders.

Md Emdad Ul Bari, chairman of the BTRC, stated that their claims were unfounded.

BTRC had conducted extensive consultations with industry players, academia, and government bodies during the policy formulation process, he said.

Bari added that the primary objective of the regulator was to ensure that the policies serve the industry as a whole.

He also noted that the guidelines and policies are currently being reviewed again, in consultation with the newly elected government.

Raising tax rates on high-income earners without expanding the tax net could backfire, potentially encouraging money laundering and capital flight, the Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce and Industry (MCCI) said today.

“Raising tax rates on high-income taxpayers may discourage compliant taxpayers and increase the risks of tax evasion or capital flight,” said MCCI President Kamran T Rahman while presenting budget proposals for FY2026-27 at a pre-budget discussion with the National Board of Revenue (NBR) in Dhaka.

“In the context of regional competition, it is essential to keep tax rates reasonable. Expanding the tax base, rather than increasing tax rates, could be a more effective and sustainable solution for boosting revenue,” he added.

The chamber said that maintaining a rational and predictable tax regime is essential to retain investment and ensure compliance in a region marked by growing tax competition.

Instead of raising rates, the trade body recommended broadening the tax base to bring more individuals and businesses, particularly from the informal sector, under the tax net.

Currently, despite having more than one crore registered taxpayers with electronic tax identification numbers (e-TINs), fewer than half regularly file returns, pointing to a structural weakness in the system.

The MCCI proposed introducing a symbolic minimum tax, ranging from Tk 100 to Tk 1,000 annually, along with a simplified one-page digital return-filing system via mobile applications.

"This would encourage first-time taxpayers to enter the formal system and gradually build a culture of compliance," Rahman said.

The chamber also flagged concerns over the effective tax rate faced by businesses, noting that multiple layers of advance income tax (AIT), tax deducted at source (TDS), and various conditionalities often push the actual burden to as high as 40–50 percent, far exceeding statutory rates.

Such distortions reduce the benefits of nominal tax cuts and create disincentives for formal business operations, it said.

MCCI urged policymakers to move towards a simplified, income-based taxation system, reduce conditionalities tied to corporate tax rates, and accelerate digital integration across income tax, VAT, and customs platforms.

It also called for easing compliance requirements, such as the Proof of Submission of Return (PSR), rationalising VAT rates, and ensuring faster, automated input tax credit mechanisms.

For small and medium enterprises (SMEs), which form the backbone of employment and industrial growth, the chamber recommended targeted tax relief, lower turnover taxes, and reduced duties on raw materials to enhance competitiveness.

The MCCI said that revenue policy should balance mobilisation and facilitation, warning that overly aggressive taxation could prove counterproductive in an already fragile economic environment.

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) today approved a US$250 million loan to support Bangladesh in operationalising and institutionalising critical reforms to improve the efficiency, coverage, and effectiveness of the country’s social protection system.

The Subprogram 2 of the Second Strengthening Social Resilience Program aims to strengthen protective and preventive social protection measures to reduce vulnerability, exclusion, and poverty risks, said an ADB press release.

The program focuses on improving social protection system management, expanding its coverage and scope, and enhancing protection for vulnerable populations.

ADB Country Director for Bangladesh Hoe Yun Jeong said this program represents an important milestone in Bangladesh’s transition toward a more modern, inclusive, and resilient social protection system.

By expanding coverage for vulnerable groups -- particularly women -- and introducing contributory protection mechanisms, the reforms, introduced by this program, will help reduce poverty risks while supporting long-term economic stability, said ADB country director

“ADB is proud to partner with Bangladesh in building a system that is more efficient, adaptive, and better equipped to promote inclusive growth and shared prosperity” Jeong added.

Reforms under the program include the development of contributory social protection schemes, which are expected to help ease longer-term fiscal pressure.

The widow allowance program will also extend support to at least 250,000 additional vulnerable women, while adaptive social protection will be strengthened through initiative climate adaptive measures under a core workfare program. In addition, access to financial services for women entrepreneurs will increase by at least 15% through the Bangladesh Bank’s targeted refinancing scheme.

The initiatives under the program are expected to generate significant micro-level outcomes, including enhanced productivity and efficiency, increased female labour force participation, and greater poverty reduction -- leading to positive macroeconomic effects and contributing to inclusive economic growth, added the release.

Oil prices extended their gains on Thursday, rising more than $1 ‌in the wake of stalled peace talks between Iran and the United States and as both nations maintained restrictions on the flow of trade through the Strait of Hormuz.

Brent crude futures rose $1.26, or 1.2 percent, to $103.17 a barrel at 0630 GMT, after settling above $100 for the first time in ​more than two weeks on Wednesday. West Texas Intermediate futures were also up $1.20, or 1.3 percent, at $94.16.

Both benchmarks closed ​more than $3 higher on Wednesday after larger-than-expected gasoline and distillate stock draws in the US, and over the lack of progress on Iran peace talks.

“The oil market is repricing expectations with little sign of progress in ​finding a resolution in the Persian Gulf,” said ING analysts in a note, adding that hopes for a resolution are ​fading as peace talks stall.

“In addition, Iran’s seizure of two vessels attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz suggests disruptions to shipments are set to continue.”

While US President Donald Trump extended a ceasefire between the countries following a request by Pakistani mediators, Iran and the US are still restricting ​the transit of ships through the strait, which carried about 20 percent of daily global oil supplies until the war began on ​February 28.

Iran seized two ships in the waterway on Wednesday, tightening its grip on the strategic chokepoint.

Trump has also maintained a US Navy ‌blockade ⁠of Iran’s trade by sea, and Iranian parliament speaker and top negotiator Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf said a full ceasefire only made sense if the blockade was lifted.

The US military has intercepted at least three Iranian-flagged tankers in Asian waters and is redirecting them away from positions near India, Malaysia and Sri Lanka, shipping and security sources said on Wednesday.

With his extension of the ​ceasefire on Tuesday, Trump again ​pulled back at the ⁠last moment from warnings to bomb Iran’s power plants and bridges. Trump has not set an end date for the extended ceasefire, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters.

US EXPORTS ​SET A RECORD HIGH

On energy trade, total exports of crude oil and petroleum products from the ​United States climbed ⁠by 137,000 barrels per day to a record 12.88 million bpd as Asian and European countries bought up supplies after disruptions tied to the Iran war.

US crude stocks rose while gasoline and distillate inventories fell, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday.

Crude inventories ⁠rose by ​1.9 million barrels, compared with expectations in a Reuters poll for a ​1.2 million-barrel draw.

US gasoline stocks fell by 4.6 million barrels, while analysts had expected a 1.5 million-barrel draw. Distillate stockpiles dropped by 3.4 million barrels versus ​expectations for a 2.5 million-barrel drop.

Three years after launch and with 99 percent of its budget unspent, a nearly Tk 1,700 crore customs modernisation project is set to be presented to the Executive Committee of the National Economic Council (Ecnec) today with a proposal to extend its deadline and raise costs by nearly 40 percent.

The Customs Modernisation and Infrastructure Development project was launched in April 2023 with World Bank (WB) financing to modernise key customs offices, including Chattogram, Benapole and Dhaka.

It was scheduled for completion by March 2026. As of June 2025, only Tk 5.14 crore had been spent of the original Tk 1,686 crore budget, of which Tk 1,475 crore was a WB loan.

Although Tk 113 crore has been allocated in the current fiscal year, the government is now seeking to extend the project’s duration and increase its cost.

A senior planning ministry official said a revised proposal has been listed for presentation at today’s scheduled Ecnec meeting.

The proposal, seen by The Daily Star, recommends increasing the project cost by 39 percent to Tk 2,344 crore, with the WB loan increasing by 34 percent, or Tk 507 crore. It also proposes extending the deadline to June 30, 2028.

The proposal attributes the cost increase to revisions made at the detailed design stage, after the initial estimate was based on conceptual design.

The earlier exchange rate assumption of Tk 102 per US dollar has been revised to Tk 122. Rising construction rates and higher VAT and tax rates have also contributed to the escalation.

At present, Dhaka Customs handles large volumes of air freight and courier consignments, Chattogram Customs manages 90 percent of the country’s import-export activity, and Benapole Customs oversees the bulk of land trade.

The project will introduce modern infrastructure and technology at these offices to speed up import-export operations, reduce tax evasion, and strengthen the detection of money laundering.

Planned works include construction of office buildings, laboratories, warehouses and residential facilities at Chattogram Customs House, as well as a new building for the Customs, Excise and VAT Training Academy. Baseline, midline and endline time-release studies will be conducted at major customs stations.

A tariff policy implementation plan will also be prepared, the existing tariff structure reviewed, and the feasibility of tariff reforms assessed using ASYCUDA World, National Single Window and Automated Risk Management System software.