Global oil price shocks are likely to affect Bangladesh’s economy mainly through higher inflation, a weaker exchange rate, and limited output losses, according to a study by the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD).

The study says that the overall impact will depend on the scale of global oil price increases, but the main transmission channels are expected to remain the same over the medium to long term. Rising energy costs are likely to feed into domestic prices, weaken the taka, and slightly slow economic growth.

By analysing different scenarios based on a 20 percent to 60 percent rise in global oil prices and using an econometric model, the CPD said losses in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) -- a measure of the value of goods and services produced in an economy -- would remain relatively contained, ranging between 0.21 percent and 0.53 percent.

In contrast, the inflationary impact could be far more pronounced, with price pressures rising from 0.6 percent in the first quarter to as high as 13.6 percent in the fifth year. This reflects the strong pass-through of fuel costs across Bangladesh’s supply chains, the CPD said in a paper presented at the fourth Bangladesh-China Renewable Energy Forum at Lakeshore Hotel in Dhaka yesterday.

The analysis shows that consumer prices, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), would rise across all scenarios -- mild, moderate, and severe -- with the impact becoming stronger over time.

In the short term, inflation is projected to increase by 0.60 percent, 1.11 percent, and 1.55 percent within the first quarter under the three respective scenarios. The pressure would continue to build, reaching 1.12 percent, 2.06 percent, and 2.87 percent after one year.

Over the longer term, the impact becomes much sharper. By the fifth year, inflation is expected to rise to 5.27 percent under mild shocks, 9.72 percent under moderate shocks, and as high as 13.57 percent under severe shocks.

At the same time, the Bangladeshi taka is projected to depreciate by between 0.56 percent and 4.5 percent under different scenarios, driven by higher fuel import bills and related balance-of-payments pressures.

The CPD warned that Bangladesh will continue to bear the burden of the ongoing energy shock for years, as structural vulnerabilities and accumulated costs will not disappear immediately even if global tensions ease.

Given the limited fiscal space, the think tank suggested that the government may need to scale down its budget estimates for the fiscal year 2026-2027 to accommodate rising energy-related expenditures.

It also cautioned that the crisis could further intensify the country’s debt burden. Increased government borrowing may crowd out private sector access to credit, tightening financial conditions across the economy.

To address these challenges, the CPD recommended accelerating the transition towards renewable energy while using domestic natural gas as a “transition fuel” to reduce dependence on imports.

Policy momentum appears to be building. The BNP government has recently announced a target to generate 10,000 megawatts (MW) of electricity from renewable sources by 2030 and has formed a committee to prepare the necessary roadmap.

The CPD urged the Ministry of Power, Energy and Mineral Resources to prepare a clear roadmap to achieve the 10,000 MW renewable energy target through both utility-scale and distributed systems.

The think tank said the target could unlock around $10 billion in investment. It also recommended reviving viable cancelled projects through transparent tendering to speed up implementation.

Times are bad for Bangladesh’s farmers. Right when they needed a steady diesel supply to irrigate vast swathes of cropland — Boro paddies, seasonal vegetables, maize — the world entered what the head of the International Energy Agency called “the biggest energy security threat in history.”

The fuel is in short supply. The government has just hiked its price by 15 percent. Many farmers are now fearing losses of both crops and investment. But not Afzal Hossain from Fulpukuria village in Gobindaganj of Gaibandha, who cultivated Boro paddy on six bighas this season and gets his water from a solar-powered pump.

“I am not really worried about irrigation,” he said. “My neighbours who rely on diesel or electric pumps are suffering due to the fuel crisis and load-shedding.”

Bangladesh requires over 40 lakh tonnes of diesel a year, with a large chunk of it going towards the running of more than 12 lakh irrigation pumps, according to data from the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and government agencies. Besides, there are more than 430,000 electric pumps that provide minor irrigation.

According to the Department of Agricultural Extension (DAE), the country currently has 754 diesel-powered deep tube wells, 10,39,337 shallow tube wells, and 1,84,384 low-lift pumps in operation.

While this reliance could be a devastating blow for many farmers, those using solar-powered pumps are enjoying immunity from the whole crisis.

In Rangpur Division, across five districts, 5,09,095 hectares of Boro paddy have been planted this year. Around 35 to 40 percent of cultivable land in the region depends entirely on diesel-powered shallow machines. The recent price hike has pushed service providers to raise charges for irrigation, harvesting, and maize threshing.

According to Hussain Mohammad Altaf, executive engineer at Rangpur office of the Bangladesh Agricultural Development Corporation (BADC), 596 solar-powered irrigation machines were active during the last irrigation season in the division.

“If each generates an average of 10 kilowatts, total output comes to 5.9 megawatts, enough to run 80,000 to 85,000 fans daily,” he said. Over a four-month irrigation season, those machines save approximately 75 lakh litres of diesel.

In Lalmonirhat, Atiar Rahman manages a solar-powered deep tube-well run by the BADC at Doani village of Hatibandha upazila, supplying water to around 15 bighas of maize and vegetable land.

“Even if diesel is unavailable or its price rises, farmers no longer have to worry,” he said, “because this irrigation machine runs on solar power.”

He added that the panels sit idle for eight months after the irrigation season ends, and that connecting surplus electricity to the national grid through net metering could benefit farmers, institutions, and the government alike.

Further into the char lands of Kurigram, farmer Meher Jamal of Char Paschim Bajra at Ulipur upazila said vast areas surrounded by the Teesta River once sat uncultivated because irrigation was out, but it meant increased costs and labour.

“For the last few years, many char lands are now being cultivated regularly because of irrigation facilities through solar power,” he said. “Land that once remained unused is now producing crops.”

Sudhan Chandra Sen, a farmer from Madhupur village at Kaunia upazila of Rangpur, said the difference is simple. “There is no worry about fuel. Electricity comes from solar power, and we get water. Crops are better, and costs are lower.”

He noted that while electricity is less reliable, as it often comes and goes, delaying irrigation, solar power is sustainable and consistent. “Water is always available.”

In Bogura, Abdul Hamid from Kachua village at Shibganj upazila cultivated Boro on five and a half bighas. He said solar-powered pumps have reduced both his costs and stress. “I planted Boro paddy after harvesting potatoes. So far, I haven’t had to worry about irrigation or the cost. I can pay the irrigation fees after harvesting the crop.”

Abu Hasan, another farmer from the same village, said crops under solar pumps yield better because the water supply is uninterrupted. “I face no water shortages. I have to pay Tk 1,500 per bigha for irrigation after the harvest.”

Beyond individual farms and government initiatives, private operators have built businesses around solar irrigation. Abu Jafar Sujan, regional manager of Salek Solar Power Limited, said his company runs 122 solar pumps across Bogura, Gaibandha, Meherpur, and Panchagarh districts.

“Each pump has a lifting capacity of 5 to 20 horsepower. Smaller pumps cover 30 to 40 bighas, while the larger ones irrigate up to 120 bighas of Boro land, he added.

Abu Bakkar Siddique, who looks after a 20-horsepower irrigation pump owned by Salek Solar in Kachua, said 100 bighas of Boro land were irrigated under this pump this year.

Nationally, the state-run renewable project financer Infrastructure Development Company Limited (Idcol) has funded the installation of approximately 1,523 solar pumps through six companies, covering around 15,000 hectares.

“There are 152 such pumps in Bogura, Sirajganj, Gaibandha, and Naogaon. However, some remain inactive due to various complexities and a lack of technical spare parts,” an official of the organisation said on condition of anonymity. “We plan to install 10,000 solar pumps across the country by 2030.”

The ADB, in a December 2023 report on scaling up solar irrigation pumps in Bangladesh, said irrigation costs in Bangladesh account for 43 percent of total agricultural costs.

It estimated that replacing diesel pumps with solar could displace consumption of 10 lakh tonnes of diesel annually, avoiding 30 lakh tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent each year.

But installation has slowed sharply. After peaking at 12.88 MWp in 2019, new installations had fallen to just 4.65 kWp by 2025, according to the state-owned Sustainable and Renewable Energy Development Authority (Sreda), responsible for increasing renewable energy production.

Rangpur BADC’s Altaf confirmed that no new solar irrigation projects have been launched in Rangpur division since 2022, and some existing pumps remain inactive due to technical problems and missing spare parts.

Mizanur Rahman, chief engineer (operation) of Northern Electricity Supply Company PLC (Nesco) in Rangpur, believes that if diesel-dependent irrigation can be quickly transformed into solar-powered irrigation, it would save foreign currency and reduce carbon emissions.

For climate-vulnerable Bangladesh, this could be an effective path toward sustainable agriculture, he added. “Most solar-powered irrigation machines are located in areas under the Rural Electrification Board. Therefore, implementation would be possible if the relevant authorities take initiatives to introduce net metering at those installations.”

Rights activists noted that solar projects are highly important for increasing agricultural production, ensuring food security, and modernising agriculture.

“Government and private initiatives should further expand solar-powered irrigation projects to improve the fortunes of marginal farmers,” said Shafiqul Islam, president of the Lalmonirhat district unit of Nodi Bachao Teesta Bachao Sangram Parishad.

After more than 35 years in commercial banking, I have seen a troubling pattern: persistently high non-performing loans, limited product innovation, weak risk management, a shortage of capable and transformational leadership, and undue interference by owner directors. Over time, these have become almost normal. They are compounded by uneven central bank supervision, outdated technology and limited institutional capacity to respond to shocks.

Meanwhile, global banking is changing rapidly. Technological advances, shifting customer expectations and new economic realities are reshaping how banks operate. Some institutions are struggling to keep up; others are moving ahead with stronger governance, modern systems and forward-looking strategies. This widening gap poses a pressing question: what will banking look like in the coming decade, and can our local banks remain competitive?

There are signs of progress. Several commercial banks in Bangladesh have begun centralising operations to improve efficiency and oversight. Effective centralisation brings large corporate and retail branches under unified control, strengthening governance while improving risk management and customer service. At the same time, the expansion of digital banking services is making transactions quicker, simpler and more accessible.

Banks are also placing greater emphasis on customer relationship management (CRM). Many have invested heavily in technology and staff training, and that effort is set to continue. Customers initially faced disruption, but many are now seeing the benefits. Banks are working to understand each client’s overall financial needs and to offer tailored solutions. Relationship managers (RMs) are being deployed to integrate corporate banking, foreign exchange and personal financial services, enabling clients to access a full range of services through a single point of contact.

Lending strategies are shifting as well. Banks increasingly recognise that heavy reliance on traditional instruments such as cash credit is unsustainable. The focus is moving towards mobilising low-cost deposits and boosting profitability through a more balanced mix of corporate and retail banking.

To support this transition, banks are investing in digital platforms, data analytics, artificial intelligence and blockchain. AI, including generative AI, is beginning to transform financial services by enabling personalised advice and sharper market insights. Robo-advisers, for example, can analyse market trends and customer behaviour to provide recommendations aligned with individual risk profiles.

AI is also improving efficiency. Chatbots now handle routine enquiries such as account balances or transaction histories, cutting waiting times and operating costs. More advanced tools can assess financial statements, support credit decisions, detect fraud in real time and streamline processes, including customer onboarding, loan approvals and regulatory reporting. These innovations enhance service quality while reducing administrative pressure.

The revenue model must evolve, too. A balanced bank should aim for an equal split between interest income and fee-based income. Leading institutions are placing greater weight on fee-based services such as corporate advisory, foreign exchange, structured finance and syndication, where risks are shared. This reduces dependence on traditional lending and strengthens balance sheet resilience.

Risk management will determine future success. To manage interest rate volatility, banks are prioritising short-term, low-cost deposits over long-term liabilities. At the same time, they must develop robust credit policies aligned with emerging investment trends and economic needs.

Ultimately, the future of banking will be shaped by technology, market forces and rising customer expectations. Banks can no longer confine themselves to deposit-taking and lending. They must expand into wealth management, integrate with fintech platforms and ensure secure, technology-driven transactions.

In an era defined by globalisation and rapid technological change, continuous transformation is essential for survival. Banks that fail to adapt will become irrelevant. The message is unmistakable: banking cannot continue the way it is.

Bangladesh continues to trail its regional competitors in attracting foreign direct investment (FDI), according to a report by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).

The report said that while Bangladesh performs better than the average least developed country (LDC) in absolute FDI inflows, it falls behind when investment is measured against the size of its population, economy and gross fixed capital formation.

On those indicators, it underperforms not only individual comparator countries but also the average for LDCs and for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), two blocs it aims to join.

FDI accounts for just 1 percent of the country’s gross fixed capital formation and 0.4 percent of gross domestic product, the report said.

Despite steady economic growth in recent years, Bangladesh has yet to convert its potential into sustained foreign investment inflows, according to the “Investment Policy Review Implementation Report”, launched at the Bangladesh Investment Development Authority (Bida) office yesterday.

Between 2019 and 2024, Bangladesh received an average of $1.5 billion in FDI a year, less than half the level of Cambodia.

The difference becomes even wider when measured against larger regional economies. Vietnam attracted more than $17 billion a year on average over the same period, while Indonesia also drew substantially higher inflows.

In terms of FDI stock, Bangladesh lagged behind Cambodia, Vietnam and Indonesia, as well as the ASEAN and RCEP blocs. It performed better only than the average least developed country in 2024.

The UNCTAD said that inflows have declined over the past six years, although early data for 2025 suggest a tentative rebound.

Investment inflows to the country peaked at more than $1.8 billion in 2019 before entering a downward trend. Since then, inflows have fallen by nearly one-third, dropping below levels recorded during the early phase of the Covid-19 pandemic.

The fall has occurred even as the overall FDI stock has remained broadly stable at around $18 billion since 2021. This suggests that existing investors have retained capital, but new investment has slowed, according to the report.

The report attributed the weakness to macroeconomic instability and operational constraints.

Local currency taka has depreciated by about 36 percent against the US dollar since 2021, while foreign exchange shortages have made it harder for companies to repatriate profits and pay for imports, it said.

“These pressures have been compounded by energy disruptions, particularly fuel import constraints, which have raised production costs and disrupted industrial activity.”

At the same time, inflation has surged to nearly 10 percent and economic growth has slowed from about 8 percent to 4 percent between 2019 and 2024, further dampening investor sentiment.

The report mentioned that political uncertainty around the election cycle and labour unrest in key sectors, especially garments, have added to caution.

Although early indicators for 2025 point to a modest recovery in FDI inflow, the report said that the composition of the rebound raises concern.

The recent uptick has been driven mainly by reinvested earnings and intra-company loans rather than new greenfield projects. In effect, existing investors are expanding their exposure, but few new entrants are arriving, the report said.

The UNCTAD said that while confidence may be stabilising, Bangladesh has yet to regain momentum in attracting fresh foreign capital.

“A national investment policy and a consolidated investment law would help reinforce investor confidence and focus on attracting and leveraging FDI in support of national development objectives through a whole-of-government approach,” the report said.

As a second priority, UNCTAD recommended strengthening investment promotion and facilitation, focusing on sectors identified in its FDI heatmap and adopting targeted measures to support their growth in coordination with other institutions.

“Mitigate the impact of losing preferential LDC status by engaging with key investment and trade partners and by strengthening the capacities of the local private sector.”

Kiyoshi Adachi, a legal officer at UNCTAD, said most recommendations from earlier reviews have only been partially implemented.

He cited outdated legislation, including the Investment Act of 1980, which does not clearly define investor protections or consolidate FDI rules. Entry procedures remain complex and require multiple approvals, while digitalisation efforts are undermined by continued reliance on manual processes.

Challenges such as foreign exchange repatriation, access to land, infrastructure shortages and limited skilled labour mobility continue to weigh on investor confidence, he said.

Ashik Chowdhury, executive chairman of Bida, said Bangladesh needs to accelerate its efforts to attract foreign investment by strengthening competitiveness and aligning more closely with global standards.

Stefan Liller, resident representative of the United Nations Development Programme in Bangladesh, said coherent policies and strong institutional capacity are essential to attract responsible investment that creates jobs and supports inclusive growth.

Among others, Sohana Rouf Chowdhury, managing director of Rangs Motors, M Masrur Reaz, chairman and CEO of Policy Exchange of Bangladesh, Ariful Hoque, former director general of Bida, Md Hafizur Rahman, trade policy and facilitation expert, and Humayun Kabir, executive member of Bida, were present at programme.

Rising global protectionism and trade fragmentation could slow economic progress across the wider developing Asia-Pacific region, potentially delaying graduation from least developed country (LDC) status for countries including Bangladesh, according to a new United Nations survey.

The 2026 edition of the Economic and Social Survey of Asia and the Pacific, published last week, said the average additional effective tariff rate imposed by the United States on developing economies in the region has climbed to around 15 percent from about 2.8 percent in 2024.

As a result, several smaller and least developed countries, including Bangladesh, Cambodia, the Lao People’s Democratic Republic and Myanmar, now face 19-40 percent tariffs on exports to the United States.

The report said that such barriers are likely to hold back economic development and delay LDC graduation.

Bangladesh, Nepal and Lao PDR are scheduled to graduate to developing country status on November 24 this year. However, Bangladesh and Nepal have applied to the UN for a three-year deferment until 2029.

The report noted that further tariff adjustments were announced after a United States Supreme Court ruling in February 2026. Policy changes remain highly unpredictable.

As of February this year, tariff rates faced by developing economies in Asia and the Pacific were still higher than in 2024.

The report by the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UNESCAP) also said weaker export orders are likely to hit employment, wages and business investment in affected sectors, with knock-on effects for growth and government revenue.

The impact will extend beyond direct exports to the United States. Economies supplying raw materials, parts and components to regional value chains may also see demand fall, according to the report.

In Bangladesh, about one-third of textile and textile product exports depend on imported inputs or upstream trade partners. Disruptions to value chains and trade diversion could also curb productivity growth over time, limiting longer-term economic potential.

“Tariff hikes are estimated to have sizable employment impacts,” said the report. The impact on workers would vary by gender, age, skill level and sector.

Around 3 percent of total employment in the region, roughly 56 million jobs, is linked to final demand in the United States through trade and supply chains. Manufacturing is the most exposed sector.

Lower exports could suppress wages and push vulnerable workers into poverty.

In countries such as Bangladesh, Cambodia, Pakistan and Sri Lanka, the garment industry employs large numbers of informal workers, many of them women.

Compared with registered workers, informal employees have weaker bargaining power, limited legal protection and little access to social security. Many earn below minimum wage levels.

Even if trade tensions ease, lingering uncertainty may discourage firms from rehiring displaced workers. That could force households to cut spending on food, health and education, with long-term consequences.

Bangladesh, Cambodia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Vietnam, which face tariffs of about 20 percent, are particularly exposed because labour-intensive goods such as garments, textiles, footwear and leather account for a large share of their exports to the United States.

In Bangladesh and Cambodia, garments and textiles alone make up 50 percent to 80 percent of total goods exports to the US market.

The report also said that women dominate employment in these sectors, especially in lower-skilled, routine jobs such as sewing, cutting and finishing. Women account for around seven in ten readymade garment workers in Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, and about eight in ten in Cambodia.

Pay in these industries often sits at or just above the minimum wage, and access to unemployment benefits or other safety nets is limited.

In Bangladesh, about 32 percent of RMG workers earn below the minimum wage, and roughly 7 percent earn incomes below the international poverty line.

Gender pay differences persist across these labour-intensive sectors.

In Vietnam’s garment sector, female wages are estimated to be about 15 percent lower than those of men. With limited opportunities to shift into alternative employment, women and low-skilled workers are especially vulnerable to job losses and wage cuts.

Informal and subcontracted workers face the greatest risk if export demand weakens. These jobs usually offer no notice period, little job security and no social protection. They are usually the first to be cut and the last to return.

The survey also finds a clear divergence in firm performance.

Companies linked to the United States market were 14 percentage points less likely to report production growth. By contrast, firms supplying the European Union were 16 percentage points more likely to post increases.

The report added that many firms will struggle to diversify export markets quickly, given intensifying global competition and uncertain demand in major economies.

Global orders to build liquefied natural gas carriers (LNGC) are set to rebound this year after a 2025 slump as growing LNG ​output and vessel fuel efficiency drive demand, industry executives and analysts say.

The rise in orders is offsetting concerns that supply disruptions from the ‌US-Iran war may reduce near-term shipping demand and pressure freight rates.

Since late last year, shipbuilders in South Korea and China have received more orders, with 35 new LNGC builds contracted in the first quarter, according to consultancies Poten & Partners and Drewry.

By comparison, 37 LNGCs were ordered in all of 2025, with a record 171 orders placed in 2022, Drewry data shows. Each tanker costs $250 million-$260 ​million, and takes over three years to build.

Upcoming LNG production in the US, Africa, Canada and Argentina will generate tanker demand, along with a push ​towards fuel efficiency and accelerated vessel demolitions, said Pratiksha Negi, Drewry’s lead analyst for LNG shipping, with steam turbine and diesel-electric carriers expected to be phased out.

FLEXIBLE US VOLUMES

The global LNGC fleet numbers over 700 vessels, which handle the more than 400 million tons per annum (mtpa) of LNG supply.

Some ​72 mtpa of new LNG capacity was approved globally last year, and more than 120 mtpa of new US LNG supply is coming to market in the next 3-4 ​years, said Fraser Carson, principal analyst, global LNG at Wood Mackenzie.

The growth of US LNG and flexible LNG supply creates trading patterns that require more shipping, he said.

US LNG is typically sold on a free-on-board basis with destination flexibility, allowing mid-voyage diversions that can tie up vessels for longer.

Japan’s Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, the world’s largest LNGC fleet owner with 107 vessels, expects US LNG supply ​investment to spur tanker orders, CEO Jotaro Tamura said.

The company plans to grow its LNGC fleet to approximately 150 vessels by around 2035.

Meanwhile, the demolition of steam-propelled LNGCs ​has accelerated since 2022 to a record 15 vessels last year, Drewry data showed, due to poor economics and tighter emissions regulations.

A proposed framework by the International Maritime Organization to cut ‌shipping emissions is also driving demand for new builds, said Uma Dutt, vice president, LNG at global ship management firm Anglo-Eastern, as the industry switches to dual-fuel vessels that can run on LNG.

WAR COMPLICATES OUTLOOK

The Iran war, however, presents conflicting signals for LNG shipping. Supply disruptions are pushing Asian LNG buyers towards alternative sources like Atlantic basin supply, increasing travel distances for ships. It could also boost demand for LNG projects elsewhere, lifting overall demand for more carriers, said Wood Mackenzie’s Carson.

But on the other hand, the war has also ​disrupted LNG flows through the Strait of ​Hormuz and sidelined 12.8 mtpa of Qatari ⁠capacity for three to five years, which could curb shipping demand and weigh on freight rates at a time where an “avalanche” of ship supply is already coming, he said.

Qatar, which operates over 100 LNGCs, will add 70-80 new builds over the next ​3-4 years while the UAE’s ADNOC is expected to double its fleet to 18 within 36 months, said Carson.

“Most of these ​new build vessels were ⁠earmarked to serve under-construction LNG projects that are now facing delays,” he said.

“The longer those delays persist, the more likely it is that these ships are offered to the market on sublet arrangements -softening rates considerably.”

Poten & Partners and Drewry expect a record 90-100 LNGCs to be delivered this year, up from 79 in 2025.

However, Drewry’s Negi said seven of nine ⁠LNGCs initially scheduled ​for delivery this year and now pushed back to 2027-28 are linked to QatarEnergy.

Poten & Partners senior ​LNG analyst Irwin Yeo said some firms may delay placing big new build orders due to uncertainties triggered by the war.

“Market uncertainty and rising shipbuilding costs, including labour and raw materials amid the current Middle ​East crisis could deter some from placing orders.”

A reversal of the five Islamic bank merger begins as former shareholders of Social Islami Bank Ltd officially appeal for regaining the troubled bank's conditional control through a new legal window.

The much-talked-about insertions into the newly enacted Bank Resolution Act 2026 that modified the merger-related ordinance of the post-uprising interim government, thus, begin to come into action.

Former chairman and sponsor shareholder of the shahirah-based bank Major (Retd.) Dr Md. Rezaul Haque, on behalf of the former board of directors, submitted Monday an application to Governor of Bangladesh Bank (BB) Md. Mostaqur Rahman in pursuant to the section 18(Ka) of the Bank Resolution Act, officials said.Bangladesh market analysis

Apart from Mr. Haque, the other signatory shareholders in the application are managing director of Hamdard Laboratories Dr Hakim Md. Yusuf Harun Bhuiyan, Alhaj Sultan Mahmood Chowdhury, Afia Begum and Md. Zahedul Alam Chowdhury.

With the submission of the application, uncertainty looms large over operation of the emerging Sammilito Islamic Bank which was formed through merging five severely liquidity-hit shariah-based commercial banks last year.

The merged banks were Social Islami Bank, First Security Islami Bank, Union Bank, Global Islami Bank and EXIM Bank.

Talking to The Financial Express, the former chairman of Social Islami Bank, Mr. Rezaul Haque, said they had submitted the application under the section 18(Ka) of the act, which has created a window for the former shareholders to get back conditional control over the problem bank.

He thinks the bank can be revived as an independent bank through fresh capital injections, stronger governance, recovery of classified loans and improved liquidity support.

They pledge to restore transparency and accountability if the former board members are reinstated.Financial news subscription

"We hope the central bank governor will give serious attention to our application and give us time to share our plans to make the bank rebound," he says.

Mr. Haque says they will comply with all the conditions in the Bank Resolution Act to get back their ownership in the bank.

"We are capable as we had given 20-percent cash dividend to the shareholders regularly since 2013 till 2016 before it was forcibly taken away by a controversial business group," he says, adding that their employees enjoyed 5-7 bonuses annually.

According to the interpolation of changes into section 18(Kha) of the Bank Resolution Act, former directors or shareholders of banks, merging or listed for mergers, can pay 7.5 per cent upfront of the amount injected by the government or the central bank to reclaim the banks. The remaining 92.5 per cent is to be repaid within two years at 10-percent interest.

Seeking anonymity, a BB official says they will scrutinize the application on various aspects. Thereafter, it will be placed before the BB board of directors.

"If the board members are satisfied, it will be sent to the ministry of finance for next course of action."

On a question over the operational fate of Sammilito Islami Bank, the central banker couldn't give any satisfactory response. "We are in the dark now as the progress of the newborn bank gets caught in limbo after the latest change in the Bank Resolution Act," he says.

The section 18(Ka) of the act, which was passed by parliament on April 11 last, sparked widespread criticism from various quarters who fear representatives from the group who looted public money from the banks might get back in the ownerships through using the amended law.

Before the mergers, the central bank on November 5 last year declared net asset value (NAV) of the shares of the five banks zero, citing deeply negative capital positions, and officially classified the institutions as non-viable.

Although all the five remain listed on the stock market, trading in their shares was suspended by the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC).

Under the merger plan, the government injected Tk 200 billion into the newborn bank, while another Tk 150 billion was to come from the deposit-insurance fund, creating a paid-up capital base of Tk 350 billion.

Of the government funds, it invested Tk 100 billion in Sukuk bonds while the remaining Tk 100 billion in cash remains almost intact in the Sammilito Islami Bank current account with the regulator.

According to the financial review of the bank, the ratio of classified loans rose to 64 per cent by end of August last year, which prompted the banking regulator to take it under its merger plan along with four other Islamic banks.

The total investment the bank had made until August 2025 was Tk 391 billion. Of the volume, around Tk 248 billion turned bad loans and it created severe liquidity crisis in the bank.

The success in accountancy and finance careers in future will depend on adaptability, continuous learning, and the ability to combine technical expertise with human-centred skills, experts have said.

The future of work is undeniably uncertain, but it is teeming with opportunity for those willing to adapt, they said in a roundtable discussion held at The Business Standard conference room yesterday.

Titled "Finance and Accountancy Career Paths Reimagined – The Changing World of Work", the discussion was organised by ACCA Bangladesh, moderated by TBS Senior Executive Editor Sharier Khan.

Clive Webb, head of Business Management at ACCA Global, presenting the keynote, said there has been a fundamental change in career structures driven by the interconnected forces of demography, climate change, and technology.

He suggested that the role of the profession is shifting from being the "owner of knowledge" to the "provider of trust and integrity".

Webb described a transition from a traditional "pyramid" organisational structure to a "diamond" model, where fewer entry-level roles exist and the focus shifts to interpretation, human verification, and value-driven insight.

In his presentation, he further said the future of work in accountancy and finance is dynamic, uncertain, and full of opportunity.

"Success will depend on adaptability, continuous learning, and the ability to combine technical expertise with human-centric skills. By embracing flexibility and aligning with emerging trends – technology, sustainability, and purpose – professionals can thrive in a world where career paths are reimagined and accountancy is redefined," he said.

Prawma Tapashi Khan, country manager at ACCA Bangladesh, said that while concerns about job cuts due to AI are valid, the reality is that many new roles will emerge as the nature of work is redefined.

She added that technology itself will not replace human professionals, but those who fail to utilise technology effectively will be replaced by those who do.

Sajjad Hossain Bhuiyan, chairman of the Financial Reporting Council (FRC) Bangladesh, revealed that while 150,000 companies are registered with the RJSCF, only 35,000 submit tax returns. He challenged the accounting community to locate these missing 115,000 entities and bring them into the formal fold.

The FRC chairman addressed the need for a professional Valuation Code and the formal recognition of ACCA graduates under the Financial Reporting Act, acknowledging that their international expertise is vital for better economic governance.

ASM Amanullah, vice-chancellor of National University, Bangladesh, pointed out a stark disconnect: the country produces 10 lakh graduates annually, yet 3 lakh stay unemployed.

He attributed this to a lack of industry-academia linkage. To address this, the National University has launched 26 reform initiatives, including an MoU with ACCA to integrate professional certifications into the curriculum.

He advocated increasing education spending to 3% of GDP, stressing that a one-dollar investment in human development today can yield a 300% return within a decade.

Professor Tapan Mahmud, head of Business Administration in Accounting and Information Systems at the Bangladesh University of Professionals, said modern "outcome-based education" must be more than a paperwork exercise for accreditation.

He warned that over-reliance on digital tools is eroding students' decision-making abilities, urging a return to "dialogic teaching" that develops the capacity to handle complex and ambiguous scenarios beyond number-crunching.

Shanshil Ahmed Shibly, technology director at Grameenphone, said the first wave of AI has already passed and the era of "Agent AI" has begun, with "Robotic AI" expected to handle basic tasks by 2028.

He added companies are transforming workforces not just for profit but for survival, and that data sovereignty must be a national priority.

Imam Al Razi, director at Monstarlab Enterprise Solutions, said the challenge often lies in the mindset of business owners who fear automation or lack the capacity to implement ERP systems. He called on universities to introduce these technologies early so students remain relevant in a world where repetitive tasks are rapidly being transferred to AI.

Tanaka Islam, head of HR at Maersk (Bangladesh and Sri Lanka), observed that the era of preferring select institutions is over, with focus now firmly on mindset and self-awareness.

She urged academics to move beyond ceremonial collaborations and engage in meaningful mentorship that prepares students for the corporate environment.

Seezan M Choudhury, partner at ACE Advisory, added that while managing "Gen Z" can be challenging due to their preference for flexibility over certainty, they also present an opportunity.

He suggested that AI-driven automation at the "bottom of the pyramid" allows mid-level managers to produce high-quality reports that previously required large technical teams, enabling Bangladesh to "leapfrog" traditional accounting methods.

Jakir Hossain, group CFO at Asiatic 3Sixty, described the transition of finance leaders from "historians" to "architects" of business.

He shared how re-engineering a company's financing structure saved hundreds of crores, proving that strategic integration is more valuable than technical bookkeeping alone.

Snehasish Barua, managing director of SMAC Advisory Services, noted a critical shortage of forensic accountants – a field that accounts for eight out of ten client requests – and urged institutions to develop specialists in this high-demand area.

Mohsena Khanom Munna, founder of De Tempete, said accounting business process outsourcing (BPO) is a major export sector for Bangladesh but suffers from a gap in "job-ready" skills and the high cost of training interns who often leave for different time zones. She proposed embedding technical courses during university education.

Marzana F Chowdhury, managing director at RSM Bangladesh, said finance professionals must now act as "co-pilots" to management, using data insights to drive strategy rather than simply reporting the past.

Mohammod Rashedul Alam Chowdhury, financial management officer at the Asian Development Bank, stressed the need for specialised finance cadres in the public sector.

Sarwar Alam, executive partner at KZK Advisory, said Bangladesh's 78 lakh SMEs represent a vast job market if accountants can offer affordable, AI-assisted services.

Mohammad Rokibul Kabir, dean of the Faculty of Business and Entrepreneurship at Daffodil International University, showcased successful "Pathway to ACCA" programmes that allow students to work while studying.

Shah Waliul Manzoor, senior business development manager of ACCA Bangladesh, said a significant part of this journey involves the continuous evolution of qualifications.

He said integration of artificial intelligence into the curriculum by 2027 is a key part of ACCA's strategic direction, supported by research and "Professional Insights" resources.

Labio Bala, financial specialist at UNOPS, said that while degrees are essential, competency and the confidence to add value are the ultimate benchmarks.

He said participants agreed that by embracing flexibility and aligning with technology and sustainability trends, the reimagined finance professional will not only survive but lead the coming transformation, where career paths are defined by the ability to evolve.

Despite steady economic growth, Bangladesh’s tax system continues to underperform, with average annual revenue shortfalls reaching nearly Tk 59,000 crore over the past five years, according to the Policy Research Institute (PRI) of Bangladesh.

“Persistent shortfalls reached approximately 20 percent of the revised budget target, while tax revenue growth collapsed from 21 percent to just 2.2 percent,” the thinktank said, pointing to what it described as a “structural weakness in tax effort.”

PRI Research Director Bazlul Haque Khondker made the remarks during a presentation on the need to rationalise the supplementary duty (SD) and value-added tax (VAT) structure at the organisation’s office in Dhaka today.

He said low VAT productivity, despite relatively higher buoyancy, reflects deeper structural issues, including a narrow tax base and policy distortions.

The current system, he added, indicates significant untapped tax capacity.

He suggested that comprehensive base expansion and reforms could substantially improve revenue mobilisation.

Bangladesh has set an ambitious target to raise its tax-to-GDP ratio to around 15 percent by fiscal year 2034-35 (FY35), up from the current 6.7 percent.

To reach an interim target of 10.9 percent by FY30, the country will need to sustain an average annual revenue growth of about 17 percent over the five years from FY25.

According to PRI, achieving these targets will require a fundamental shift in tax policy rather than incremental adjustments.

“Reaching a 15 percent tax-to-GDP ratio will demand structural reform, not just base expansion or rate hikes,” the presentation noted.

According to the thinktank, Bangladesh’s tax structure is also expected to evolve, with direct taxes projected to grow faster than indirect taxes. It projects that direct tax revenue will expand at an average rate of 22 percent, compared to 12.9 percent for indirect taxes between FY25 and FY35.

Even so, indirect taxes, particularly VAT and SD, will continue to play a significant role, accounting for around 45 percent of total tax revenue by FY35.

PRI stressed that reforms must prioritise building a broader-based and properly structured VAT system, while gradually reducing reliance on supplementary duties.

“Simply raising SD rates on existing products will not close the revenue gap,” said Khondker, warning that excessively high rates risk triggering adverse behavioural responses, in line with the Laffer Curve effect, where higher taxes can ultimately lead to lower revenue collection.

Speaking as the chief guest at the event, Zakir Ahmed Khan, chairman of Palli Karma-Sahayak Foundation (PKSF), said Bangladesh’s tax potential could rise significantly with stronger enforcement and reduced leakages.

The proper implementation of existing laws could boost revenue by 30-40 percent, he estimated.

He further estimated that improving compliance alone could help the country reach a 15 percent tax-to-GDP ratio without raising rates, but cautioned against turning enforcement into “tax terrorism,” stressing the need for trust and voluntary compliance.

Khan also called for separating tax policy from administration within the National Board of Revenue (NBR) to improve efficiency and accountability, adding that stronger reforms and better analysis are key to unlocking revenue potential.

Separating tax policy from administration and establishing a credible macro-fiscal framework are "mission-critical" reforms for Bangladesh, according to development partners and economists speaking at a high-level policy dialogue in Dhaka yesterday (26 April).

Jean Pesme, division director of the World Bank for Bangladesh and Bhutan, said strengthening the tax system requires urgent institutional clarity and consistent implementation.

"Let me begin by echoing two key points that have already been raised. First, the separation between tax policy and tax administration is absolutely mission-critical. While there may have been reasons for not advancing this reform earlier, it is something that now needs to happen. This separation is essential for improving governance within the tax system, as well as for advancing digitalisation," he said.

He stressed that Bangladesh must move forward with a clear tax reform roadmap and avoid policy reversals.

"The second major challenge is to establish a clear tax reform plan and begin implementation without policy reversals. What matters most at this stage is that the overall direction is crystal clear, and that implementation supports this direction to demonstrate credibility," he added.

Pesme also warned that investors judge policies based on execution rather than announcements. "From an investor's perspective, the key question is whether policy announcements will actually be implemented. It may be more effective to start with less ambitious reforms, but ensure they are properly executed."

He further said Bangladesh's investment climate requires stronger foundations, noting that revenue mobilisation, financial sector stability, and business environment reforms must move together. "Countries that attract investment do so not just through incentives, but through macroeconomic stability, strong institutions, rule of law and efficient administration," he added.

He also highlighted concerns over low tax-to-GDP ratio, high tax expenditures, and over-reliance on exemptions, stressing the need to broaden the tax base and improve transparency.

Echoing similar concerns, Chandan Sapkota, country economist at the Bangladesh Resident Mission of the Asian Development Bank, said revenue reform and macro-fiscal discipline are central to improving economic stability.

"I think the point on revenue is very important, particularly the institutional reforms around how the National Board of Revenue is structured," he said.

He noted that weak fiscal discipline creates mid-year policy adjustments and discretionary space within tax administration.

"Bangladesh is the only country in South Asia without a clear fiscal anchor. As a result, there is no strong discipline on the expenditure side, and when that discipline is missing, it also affects revenue discipline," he said.

He added that improving the macro-fiscal framework is urgent in the context of rising debt pressures and long-term fiscal sustainability.

The remarks came at a high-level luncheon organised by the Foreign Investors' Chamber of Commerce and Industry (FICCI) at a hotel in Dhaka today, focusing on "Conducive Fiscal Policy for a Better Investment Climate".

The event brought together policymakers, economists, development partners, business leaders, and members of the diplomatic community to discuss Bangladesh's fiscal outlook. The session featured M Masrur Reaz, chairman of Policy Exchange Bangladesh, as the keynote speaker. He noted that tax policy and administration remain key concerns for investors, citing high corporate tax rates, complex compliance processes, fragmented administration, and policy unpredictability as major challenges.

The panel discussion was moderated by Shams Zaman, board member of FICCI and country managing partner at PwC. Panelists included Jean Pesme of the World Bank, Chandan Sapkota of the Asian Development Bank, Fahmida Khatun, executive director of Centre for Policy Dialogue, and Abul Kasem Khan, chairperson of Business Initiative Leading Development (BUILD).

Panelists broadly agreed that ensuring policy stability, simplifying the tax system, strengthening institutions, and improving coordination among regulatory bodies will be critical to attracting and sustaining foreign investment in the coming years.

Fahmida Khatun called for tariff rationalisation to be the most urgent reform priority this year, stressing that Bangladesh must prepare for a post-LDC graduation reality by strengthening domestic revenue mobilisation without over-reliance on import duties.

Rupali Haque Chowdhury, FICCI president and managing director of Berger Paints Bangladesh, said that to improve the business environment, attract investment, and increase the tax-to-GDP ratio, it is essential to ensure transparency, digitalisation, and policy continuity.

Abul Kasem Khan said, "M Masrur Reaz showed a corporate tax rate of around 27.5%, but in reality we are paying close to 40%. One of my companies is even paying about 45% because of the Advance Income Tax. So, this requires a radical reform.

"I would suggest doing away with AIT if possible. I understand it is a difficult policy choice, but if additional taxes are collected on income or profits, that amount should either be refunded or adjusted against next year's liabilities."

He added, "If such a reform is introduced and linked with employment generation, it could create a strong incentive structure. Companies that generate more employment could receive refunds, encouraging them to reinvest profits into capital machinery, expansion, or new business ventures instead of distributing everything as dividends. This kind of reform would help promote reinvestment, productivity, and job creation."

Tax deduction at source (TDS) has long served as an efficient mechanism for revenue collection within Bangladesh’s income tax framework. However, its growing overlap with the turnover-based minimum tax, and the treatment of tax deducted at source as minimum tax in many cases under the Income Tax Act 2023, is creating unintended structural distortions in the business environment. While these measures may ensure a predictable revenue stream for the government, their combined effect is becoming increasingly burdensome for businesses, particularly in terms of cash flow, tax equity, and overall economic efficiency.

The main objective of the minimum tax is to ensure that no taxpayer is left out of the tax net. That is, even if a person or organization shows a loss or very little profit, they must pay a minimum tax on a certain basis. It is a way to prevent tax evasion and protect revenue. In Bangladesh, this minimum tax is mainly implemented in two ways.

First, the turnover-based minimum tax imposes a levy on gross receipts, irrespective of profitability. Currently, companies and institutions exceeding Tk 50 lakh in turnover and individuals exceeding Tk 4 crore are subject to this tax, with rates ranging from 0.1% to as high as 3% depending on the sector. For instance, tobacco and soft drink manufacturers face a 3% rate, mobile operators 1.5%, and most other sectors around 1%.

Second, Tax Deducted at Source (TDS), although legally designed as an advance tax, often functions in practice as a de facto minimum or even final tax. In theory, TDS should be adjustable against final tax liabilities. However, in reality, such adjustments are frequently limited or unavailable, particularly for businesses operating at a loss or with slim profit margins. As a result, taxes deducted at source effectively become non-refundable, locking in a tax burden regardless of actual income.

In many cases, TDS effectively serves as a minimum tax, ensuring that the government secures a certain level of revenue even when the taxpayer’s financial condition is unfavorable. A significant portion of taxes deducted or collected at source under various provisions, spanning Sections 88 to 139 of the Income Tax Act 2023, functions in this way.

Even if the final tax calculation suggests a lower liability, the amount already deducted or collected often remains unchanged, creating a structural mismatch and undermining fairness in the tax system.

This dual application creates a significant imbalance. A substantial portion of tax collected under multiple provisions of the Income Tax Act now carries the characteristics of minimum taxation. Consequently, businesses often face effective tax rates far exceeding statutory rates, sometimes by five to ten times. This is particularly damaging for credit-dependent enterprises, which may struggle to maintain liquidity, meet loan obligations, and sustain operations. The implications extend beyond individual firms, posing risks to the broader financial system, including banking sector stability.

Fundamentally, this structure deviates from the core principle of income taxation—that tax should be levied on net income, not gross receipts. By ignoring costs, losses, and the taxpayer’s ability to pay, the current system imposes what can only be described as economically punitive measures.

Moreover, the absence of a mechanism to carry forward excess minimum tax paid during loss-making periods further compounds the problem, effectively leading to elements of double taxation.

In contrast, most developed tax systems treat TDS strictly as an advance payment, fully adjustable against final liabilities. Even in neighboring economies like India, such adjustments are standard practice. Bangladesh’s partial and inconsistent integration of these systems has resulted in unnecessary complexity and diminished business confidence.

As the government prepares the national budget for 2026–27, there is a timely opportunity to recalibrate the tax framework. Several policy measures merit serious consideration:

Repealing the provision of minimum tax under Section 163, which conflicts with fundamental income tax principles and imposes disproportionate burdens.
Clearly redefining TDS as an adjustable advance tax, ensuring full reconciliation at the time of final assessment.
Rationalizing TDS rates, setting them at 2% for industrial and trading sectors, and 1% for service, advertising, and media sectors.
Reducing the turnover-based minimum tax rate to a uniform 0.5% to ease pressure on businesses.
Introducing a carry-forward mechanism to allow adjustment of minimum tax paid during loss-making periods against future profits.
Simplifying the overall tax structure to eliminate instances of multiple taxation on the same income stream.
Providing targeted relief or conditional exemptions for small and medium enterprises (SMEs), which are particularly vulnerable to cash flow constraints.
Revenue mobilization is undeniably critical for national development. However, it must not come at the expense of economic vitality. A tax system that is perceived as punitive or inequitable risks discouraging investment, stifling industrial growth, and undermining long-term competitiveness.

A balanced, transparent, and business-friendly tax regime is not merely desirable—it is essential. The upcoming budget presents a crucial opportunity to address systemic issues and lay the foundation for a more sustainable, growth-oriented fiscal framework. While ensuring revenue generation remains important, it is equally critical to foster a competitive and sustainable business environment.

The current structure of minimum tax and tax at source, combining features of advance, minimum, and partial final taxes, can act as a deterrent to investment, industrialization, and long-term economic growth. Therefore, the need of the hour is to revisit these mechanisms in the next budget and introduce a more balanced, fair, and investment-friendly tax system.

Bangladesh Bank has appointed an administrator to Aviva Finance Limited to ensure uninterrupted operations of the non-bank financial institution.

According to an official order issued by the central bank yesterday, Hasan Tarek Khan, a director at the Financial Institutions and Markets Department of Bangladesh Bank, has been temporarily assigned as the administrator.

In his new role, he will exercise the powers and responsibilities of the managing director and chief executive officer of Aviva Finance Limited.

Khan will be relieved of his current duties at the end of the working day on April 27 to take up the new assignment, the order said, adding that the decision was approved by the competent authority.

Aviva Finance Limited, formerly Reliance Finance Limited, was rebranded in 2020 as a shariah-based non-bank financial institution. It offers a range of deposit and investment products, including specialised schemes such as Aviva Nafiha for women.

The central bank had earlier reconstituted the board of the institution following the political transition in August 2024, appointing an independent board to stabilise operations.

However, the company has been struggling due to the prolonged absence of a managing director and a high volume of non-performing loans, which have disrupted its normal business activities. Many customers have reportedly been unable to withdraw their funds, prompting occasional protests.

Allegations have also surfaced that a significant portion of loans was disbursed irregularly during the previous regime, including to entities linked to S Alam and PK Halder, making recovery difficult.

The company was renamed Aviva Finance after Halder’s departure, but it has yet to recover from its financial distress.

Stocks surged today (26 April), the first trading session of the week, as rising turnover and investor interest in select sector-specific shares lifted both indices and market activity.

DSEX, the broad index of the Dhaka Stock Exchange, advanced by 17.6 points to settle at 5,316 points as against 5,299 points in the previous trading session.

While DS30, the blue-chip index, surged 11 points to settle at 2,026 points and DSE's shariah index declined 1.44 points to 1,065 points, the DSE data showed.

Of the traded stocks, 157 scrips advanced, 172 or majority stocks price declined and 62 remained unchanged.

While the turnover soared by 11% to Tk982.42 crore, the data showed.

EBL Securities in its daily market commentary said the market began the week on a positive note, supported by selective accumulation in December-closing stocks on expectations of strong earnings, offsetting persistent concerns over momentum amid developments in Middle East ceasefire talks.

"Despite opening on a firm note, the market encountered sustained mid-session selling pressure; however, robust early buying support enabled indices to close in positive territory, while insurance stocks gained momentum on short-term, earnings-driven accumulation," it said.

On the sectoral front, General Insurance accounted for the highest share by 17.7% of turnover, followed by Engineering by 15.0% and Bank sector by 12.5% sectors.

Sectors mostly displayed mixed returns, out of which General Insurance, Life Insurance and Food exhibited the most positive returns.

Safko Spinning Mills topped the gainer chart as its shares price surged by 10%, the highest daily limit, to Tk19.8 each followed by Apex Tannery by 9.94% to Tk95.1 each, Purabi General Insurance by 9.84% to Tk27.9 each, Aziz Pipes by 9.82% to Tk55.9 each.

While on the losing side, International Leasing and Financial Services topped the loser list as its shares price declined by 8% to Tk2.3 each, followed by Peoples Leasing and Financial Services by 7.40% to Tk2.5 each, Regent Textile by 7.14% to Tk3.9 each, BD Finance by 6.45% to Tk11.6 each, and Rupali Bank by 6.18% to Tk18.2 each.

The port city bourse, CSE, also settled on a positive territory. The Selective Categories' Index (CSCX) and All Share Price Index (CASPI) declined by 35.4 points and 44.7 points, respectively.

The government’s development expenditure has fallen to its lowest level in at least five years in the first nine months of the current fiscal year 2025-26 (FY26).

Ministries and divisions spent only Tk 75,607 crore in the first nine months, just 36.19 percent of the total allocation under the Annual Development Programme (ADP), according to data released by the Implementation Monitoring and Evaluation Division (IMED) yesterday.

While broadly similar to the same period last year, the figure is significantly below the five-year average. In FY22, nine-month implementation stood at 45 percent, the highest in recent years.

The drop, both in terms of amount and execution rate, comes amid economic uncertainty and political transition midway through the fiscal year.

The situation is particularly acute in the health sector, which implemented only 21.6 percent of the July-March target, despite growing concerns about healthcare accessibility.

With only three months remaining, analysts say Bangladesh is likely to record another year of very low development budget implementation. This will likely impact revenue collection by the National Board of Revenue (NBR), which collects advance income tax and VAT from implementing authorities.

It may, however, help contain the budget deficit and limit government borrowing from the banking sector.

Development spending hit a historic low in FY25, with only 68 percent of the revised ADP implemented, the weakest performance since FY1976-77.

Execution this year may fall to around 60 percent, said Mohammad Lutfor Rahman, a professor of economics at Jahangirnagar University. Implementation rates typically rise in the fourth quarter, but the gains may not be enough to close the gap.

“The current pace of ADP implementation reflects both administrative hesitation and structural weaknesses in fiscal management,” he said.

Rahman attributed the slowdown to the country’s unusual administrative transition. Two governments were in office during the current fiscal year. Project officials under the interim government hesitated to spend allocated funds, fearing possible complications if a new government came in.

“Since it was not an elected government, there was less accountability. As a result, towards the end, the focus shifted mainly to elections, and development spending did not get due attention,” Rahman observed.

Officials at the planning ministry earlier said last year’s disruption followed the fall of the Awami League government in a mass uprising, which prompted many project directors to abandon their posts. The revised ADP for the current fiscal year totals Tk 208,935 crore.

Rahman cautioned that the shortfall would have wider economic implications.

“Most ADP projects are infrastructure-based, so delays affect people directly. Employment, especially for daily wage workers at the grassroots level, is also hit due to reduced project activity, creating a multiplier effect on the economy,” he said.

Ashikur Rahman, principal economist at the Policy Research Institute of Bangladesh (PRI), said overall ADP implementation is likely to remain subdued in the current fiscal year.

“Like last year, there were many disruptions in the current fiscal year, including the national election, political transition, as well as global turmoil,” he said, adding that these factors collectively slowed down development spending.

In line with Rahman, he also estimated that total implementation may ultimately stand at around 60-65 percent.

He cautioned about the broader fiscal implications of lower public expenditure. “Due to this lower government expenditure, revenue collection will also be affected.”

BRAC Bank posted a record consolidated profit of Tk2,250.94 crore in 2025 – the highest in its history – marking a staggering 57% year-on-year growth over the previous year.

With this profit, BRAC Bank became the first local private sector lender to surpass Tk2,000 crore in profit.

Riding on the profit growth, the private sector lender also increased its dividend payout, recommending a 30% dividend comprising 15% cash and 15% stock for its shareholders.

The lender approved the annual financial statements and dividend for shareholders at a board of directors meeting held this evening (26 April).

While on the standalone basis, net profit of BRAC Bank rose to Tk1,581 crore, marking a 30% increase from Tk1,214 crore in the previous year.

In 2024, BRAC Bank made a consolidated profit of Tk1,431.84 crore, registering 73% growth over 2023, and it had paid a 25% dividend – 12.50% cash and 12.50% stock dividend to its shareholders.

It called the board of directors meeting on 11 June through the digital platform, and to identify its shareholders, the record date has been fixed on 17 May.

The net asset value per share on the consolidated basis increased to Tk51.56 crore, up from Tk39.38 in the previous year.

Commenting on 2025 financials, Tareq Refat Ullah Khan, managing director and CEO of BRAC Bank said, "As a values-driven institution, BRAC Bank upholds strong governance and sound fundamentals regardless of market conditions. This disciplined approach has enabled consistent financial performance over the years, with profitability emerging as a natural outcome."

He said, This performance in 2025 reflects sustained customer trust, disciplined governance, and prudent portfolio management, despite a challenging operating environment. Our continued investment in digital platforms and customer-centric innovation has further strengthened revenue growth and market reach.

He also said, robust underwriting standards and vigilant risk monitoring have preserved asset quality, keeping non-performing loans among the lowest in the industry. Consistent delivery over the years has reinforced BRAC Bank's standing as a benchmark for governance, compliance, and values-driven banking in Bangladesh.

"Notably, a significant share of the Bank's profit goes to BRAC, the world's largest NGO, which channels these funds into impactful social initiatives – thereby reinforcing the bank's contribution to socio-economic development of Bangladesh," he said.

There are serious lapses in policies aimed at expanding the tax net, resulting in persistently low revenue collection and a weak tax-GDP ratio over many years. Numerous ad hoc measures have been introduced, but outcomes have fallen short of expectations. A striking example is the limited and ineffective taxation of medium and small business houses, traders and business establishments, excluding large corporates. Together, these may be termed SMEs.

Lack of transparency and accountability, weak financial reporting, inefficient tax administration and widespread corruption are the principal causes. Over the past two decades, the trade sector in metropolitan cities, district towns, upazilas and growth centres has expanded significantly. Per capita income has also risen, visible in improved living standards, especially outside major cities. Yet these trends are not reflected in tax collections.

Most SMEs do not maintain proper accounts or ensure transparent reporting. Taxes are often based on fixed sums or manipulated accounts, and the amounts paid are negligible. In many cases, liabilities are determined through informal negotiations between taxpayers and officials, sometimes facilitated by unethical consultants.

The question, then, is how to break this cycle in both the short and long term. There appears to be little research or structured policy work on this issue. Although there are four categories of return forms in the current system, there is no prescribed form tailored specifically to SMEs.

An SME tax return form should be distinct, incorporating key information such as annual turnover; purchases from recognised supply chains, producers and distributors; rental expenses; salaries and wages; electricity bills; city corporation and municipal taxes; total floor area of business premises, including warehouses; bank statements; and VAT returns where applicable. The status and lifestyle of owners and their family members are also relevant. Assets and properties declared in individual tax returns should be cross-checked against SME disclosures. A proper analysis of such data would provide a clear picture of business scale and performance.

As an initial step, where annual income exceeds a threshold, say Tk 1 crore, accounts, except for limited companies, should be prepared with the support and attestation of qualified accounting experts, not necessarily chartered accountants. In line with global practice, the Financial Reporting Council (FRC) and the National Board of Revenue (NBR) could determine eligible qualifications, including part-qualified CAs, CMAs and ACCAs. This would improve the quality of financial reporting among SMEs and strengthen revenue collection.

Based on these enhanced returns, income tax should be assessed using progressive slabs. Where reliable accounts are absent, minimum tax may be determined using objective indicators such as electricity consumption, a proportion of salaries and wages, recorded purchases and other reasonable yardsticks. Introduced initially as a pilot, this system could be refined and expanded over time. Digitalisation of accounting records is no longer costly. Many SMEs already use software to record transactions, yet such data often remain undisclosed when tax liabilities are assessed.

Some may argue that revenue from SMEs would not significantly affect overall collections compared with large corporates. However, beyond immediate revenue gains, a broader cultural shift is needed. Public apathy towards tax compliance must change.

No society or economy can develop without transparency, accountability and proper disclosure of business results, alongside meaningful participation by financially solvent citizens. Curbing corruption, if not eliminating it, must also be a priority. These reforms are essential if Bangladesh is to confront mounting economic challenges at a time when the global economy faces prolonged uncertainty.

Dominage Steel Building Systems (DSBSL) has decided to sell 30 percent of its shares to a buyer group led by Akij Resources.

DSBSL board approved the transfer of 3.07 crore shares at a negotiated price through an off-market transaction at its meeting on April 25.

A sale agreement will be executed with the buyers -- Akij Resources, Sheikh Jasim Uddin, and Faria Hossain -- pending approval from the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC), according to a disclosure issued on the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) website yesterday.

Upon receiving BSEC clearance, a new board of directors will assume management and operations of DSBSL.

The existing board said the acquisition would help the company fully resume and optimise production, citing recent operational challenges.

It added that the synergy with Akij’s existing steel infrastructure would create long-term value for shareholders.

Akij Resources holds a significant presence in the steel and construction sectors through its subsidiaries. Officially established in April 2020, it builds on the heritage of the Akij Group, one of Bangladesh’s largest conglomerates.

DSBSL, established in 2007 as a private limited company, manufactures pre-engineered steel buildings.

The company operates two factories, at Fulbaria, Palash, Narsingdi and at Aukpara, Ashulia, Savar, with a combined monthly production capacity of 550 tonnes. It sources raw materials from manufacturers in Japan, China, and Taiwan.

As of March 31, 2026, sponsors and directors held 30.20 percent of shares, the public held 61.44 percent, and the rest were held by institutions and foreign investors.

The US central bank is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its policy meeting next week, as energy prices stay high and supply chains snarled due to war in the Middle East.

The Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting, starting Tuesday, could be chairman Jerome Powell’s last at the helm of the independent institution.

But it takes place against a tricky backdrop. Powell’s successor has faced a bumpy road to confirmation, while policymakers battle competing pressures as steeper fuel prices drive inflation and job market worries linger.

Fed officials are set to keep rates steady at a range between 3.50 percent and 3.75 percent, extending their pause since the start of the year.

“We still have a very high level of uncertainty on what’s happening in the Middle East,” KPMG senior economist Kenneth Kim told AFP.

Oil and gasoline prices remain elevated even if they have peaked, meaning “there’s certainly an energy shock that’s still impacting both consumers and businesses,” he said.

The Fed has a dual mandate of maintaining price stability and low unemployment.

It tends to keep interest rates high to curb inflation or lower them to spur growth, meaning that current conditions pull officials in different directions.

Navy Federal Credit Union Chief Economist Heather Long expects Powell to be “non-committal” on the path of rates, as the full impact from the war on Iran remains unknown.

The oil price hikes came after US-Israeli strikes targeting Iran from February 28 sparked Tehran’s retaliation in virtually closing the Strait of Hormuz -- a key waterway for energy transit.

CONTAINING INFLATION

Fed officials will likely focus more on containing inflation than the jobs market this meeting, with the war entering its ninth week.

The strait is also a key passage for fertilizers, and disruptions threaten to hit food production.

Already, US consumer inflation reached its highest level in nearly two years in March at 3.3 percent as energy costs rocketed.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who earlier backed lower rates to support employment, indicated this month that a prolonged conflict could make it hard for the central bank to cut rates this year.

If there were high inflation and a weak labor market, one would have to balance risks on both sides.

This “may mean maintaining the policy rate at the current target range if the risks to inflation outweigh those to the labor market,” he told an Alabama event.

KPMG’s Kim said solid hiring recently “gives the Fed some cushion” to temporarily focus more on prices.

Analysts will monitor if the Fed signals in its post-meeting statement that rate hikes are a possibility.

‘CRITICAL JUNCTURE’

The Fed is also taking its next steps under intense political scrutiny.

President Donald Trump has made no secret of his wish for lower interest rates, and regularly slammed Powell for not cutting them aggressively.

Beyond rhetoric, Trump has sought to oust Fed Governor Lisa Cook over claims of mortgage fraud. The Supreme Court is set to rule on whether he can fire her.

Meanwhile, Trump’s choice of new Fed chairman -- Kevin Warsh -- has faced a bumpy road to confirmation.

Republican senator Thom Tillis on the Senate Banking Committee vowed to block Fed appointments until a Justice Department probe into the Fed and Powell is resolved, setting up a potential impasse on the panel Warsh needs to clear.

But the Department of Justice said Friday it would drop the investigation linked to renovation costs overruns, potentially paving the way for Warsh’s ascendance.

Asked by journalists Saturday about the DOJ’s move, Trump said he still wants to look into the cost of the Federal Reserve building renovations, which he has claimed is too high.

“I tell you, I want to find out. I have an obligation to find out,” he said.

Warsh has repeatedly pledged to remain independent if confirmed.

“We’re at a critical juncture for the Fed,” EY-Parthenon chief economist Gregory Daco told AFP.

“It may be that under Warsh, we’re going to see less Fed transparency, less Fed communication than we had in the past,” he said, referring to Warsh’s confirmation hearing testimony.

Powell’s chairman term expires May 15, and he originally intended to stay on the Fed’s board of governors until the probe on him is completed.

All eyes are on his future plans at his scheduled press briefing Wednesday.

A quiet but fast-moving shift is underway on Bangladesh's roads as electric bikes and e-scooters emerge as a new growth industry, drawing over Tk2,000 crore in fresh investments and rapidly rising consumer demand.

What began as a niche market just a few years ago is now drawing significant investment from some of the country's largest conglomerates, including Nasir Group, Walton, PRAN-RFL Group, Runner Automobiles and Akij Group.

Driven by high fuel prices, rising urban living costs, traffic congestion and growing demand for cleaner transport, e-bikes are increasingly becoming a practical choice for commuters and a serious business opportunity for manufacturers.

Industry insiders estimate that at least five major companies made fresh investments in the sector over the past year alone, with ongoing commitments exceeding Tk2,000 crore.

At the same time, imports have surged sharply, highlighting how rapidly consumer demand is building. Just three years ago, monthly e-bike sales in Bangladesh were negligible, hovering around 100 units. Today, monthly sales have climbed into the thousands.

National Board of Revenue data show imports of e-bikes quadrupled within three years. Imports rose from 2,446 units in FY23 to 10,053 units in FY25. However, industry players say the actual market is significantly larger.

Subail bin Alam, chief operating officer of Nasir Syntax Motors Ltd, said NBR import data do not fully capture the market because a large volume of CKD kits entered Bangladesh in 2025 and many of those shipments are not reflected in the headline numbers.

"If those are added, the actual figure would be several times higher, with hundreds of e-bikes now being sold every day," he added.

He said the market received a major boost after the government reduced taxes on imported electric two-wheelers and parts in 2024. Currently, completely built-up unit imports face 98.87% tax, while CKD imports are taxed at around 37%, making local assembly increasingly attractive. For fuel-based motorcycles, the rates are 125% and 90%, respectively.

This shift has encouraged multiple firms to enter the market or expand operations.

Subail added that while fuel-based motorcycles cost around Tk3-4 per kilometre to operate, e-bikes cost only 30-40 paisa per kilometre, making them highly cost-effective for daily users.

"A battery costing Tk30,000-35,000 can last around three years. Over the same period, maintenance costs for petrol bikes are much higher. That is why consumers are turning to e-bikes as an alternative."

Major players scale up investments

Among the newest major entrants is Nasir Group, which has already invested Tk300 crore in the sector.

The company launched five models in November 2025, two with graphene batteries and three with lithium batteries, and has already built showrooms in 40 districts as part of an aggressive expansion strategy.

Subail said Nasir Syntax Motors initially began producing around 70 bikes per day, but has built a factory with the capacity to scale several times higher depending on demand.

"Our target is to invest Tk500 crore in EVs," he said.

PRAN-RFL Group has also entered the race with its RYDO e-scooter brand. The company has invested around Tk200 crore, with production beginning in January this year at its Habiganj facility.

The plant currently produces around 500 units per month, with plans to scale up to 3,000 units monthly at full capacity.

RN Paul, managing director of RFL Group, said current duty structures remain a challenge because they raise retail prices.

He said the company is engaging with policymakers and aims to bring e-scooters to market at around Tk50,000 by 2027, subject to stronger policy support.

Walton, one of Bangladesh's largest electronics manufacturers, has already established an early lead. The company launched the country's first locally produced e-bike under the Takyon brand in 2022 and currently commands around 18% market share.

Its manufacturing ecosystem already includes assembly lines, plastic moulding, PCB SMT production for digital systems and battery management systems, as well as battery manufacturing facilities.

Touhidur Rahman Rad, chief business officer of Walton Digi-Tech Industries Ltd, said Walton plans a dedicated 1,20,000-square-foot e-bike factory with an annual production capacity of 20,000 units.

The project is expected to generate more than 1,500 jobs with an investment running into several hundred crore taka.

He said e-bikes can reduce household transport fuel costs by as much as 80%, allowing families to recover the cost of ownership within a relatively short period.

Runner, Akij intensify competition

Runner Automobiles, a long-established player in Bangladesh's motorcycle market, has also accelerated its EV strategy.

After entering motorcycle manufacturing in 2012 with over Tk500 crore in phased investment, Runner began assembling e-scooters in 2025 in partnership with China's Yadea.

It had already launched e-bikes under the eWave brand several years earlier.

Priced between Tk70,000 and Tk100,000, Runner's e-bikes have gained a strong foothold.

Runner Automobiles Chairman Hafizur Rahman said the company plans to move from assembly to full manufacturing at its Bhaluka factory in Mymensingh.

Meanwhile, Akij Motors entered the e-bike segment between 2020 and 2022 and now assembles seven models at its Gazipur facility.

The company is focusing on the premium segment, with most models priced above Tk1,00,000.

An Akij official said customer preferences are shifting towards better performance, durability and higher-quality vehicles.

Why consumers are switching

A petrol-powered motorcycle typically costs Tk2-3 per kilometre in fuel. An e-bike costs only Tk0.30-0.40 per kilometre.

There is no engine oil, lower servicing costs, and monthly charging expenses can be as low as Tk300-500.

Nawshad Alam, an HR official at BRAC Bank, recently bought a Jiho A8 SE electric scooter for Tk2,20,000.

The lithium-powered scooter can travel 105–110 kilometres on a full charge.

"I bought an e-bike to avoid the hassle of fuel," he said.

"I no longer need to stand in petrol pump queues. I charge it at home. There is almost no fuel or servicing cost, and the company gave a three-year warranty."

He added that premium models are expensive, but entry-level bikes begin at around Tk50,000.

Md Mahmudur Rahman, general manager of RFL E-bike, said young professionals, especially women, are increasingly adopting e-bikes.

Their controlled speed makes them appear safer to many families, helping transform them from transport tools into lifestyle products.

He said countries such as India, China and Vietnam demonstrate the long-term potential of electric mobility.

Even families that already own cars or motorcycles are buying e-scooters for short urban trips because of their affordability and convenience, he added.

Md Matiur Rahman of Transsion Holdings said rising fuel prices and worsening congestion are steadily pushing consumers away from conventional motorcycles.

Import dependency

Despite growing local assembly, Bangladesh remains heavily reliant on imports.

Most units arrive fully built from China, while another 20-30% come in as SKD or CKD kits for local assembly. Foreign brands still dominate parts of the market.

Revoo, imported by Transsion Holdings since 2022, controls around 20% market share, offering high-performance models with ranges of up to 80 kilometres, swappable lithium batteries and NFC smart unlocking.

Chinese brands such as TailG, Salida, AIMA and Exploit also maintain strong positions.

Charging, registration still major barriers

Industry leaders say the sector's biggest growth constraints are inadequate charging infrastructure and cumbersome registration processes.

Bangladesh currently has only 112 public charging stations, concentrated in Dhaka and Chattogram, creating severe range anxiety outside major cities.

Subail of Nasir Syntax Motors said a rider who leaves home with a partial charge has few options if the battery runs out mid-journey.

"Fuel stations exist everywhere, but charging stations do not. The government still has no clear policy framework. This is a major barrier for EV adoption," he said.

Walton's Touhidur Rahman said demand is currently stronger in Khulna and Chattogram than in Dhaka in some cases, partly due to road-use patterns and infrastructure realities.

He said rapid expansion of fast-charging and battery-swapping stations would dramatically accelerate growth.

Md Moshiuzzan, director of corporate affairs at Nasir Syntax Motors, said e-bike registration costs range from Tk8,000 to Tk12,000.

He added that no dedicated BRTA desk exists for e-bike registration, forcing many buyers into lengthy procedures and leaving many vehicles unregistered.

Bangladesh's motorcycle market is now worth an estimated Tk7,000-8,000 crore, expanding at 16-17% annually.

Nearly 99% of motorcycles sold locally are now manufactured or assembled in Bangladesh, a transformation driven by supportive industrial policies.

If registration systems are simplified, charging infrastructure expanded and tax policies remain supportive, Bangladesh's e-bike market may soon become the next major success story in domestic manufacturing and urban mobility, stakeholders say.

Bangladesh's economy last week revolved around energy-related costs straining public finances, a halt in fertiliser production due to gas shortages, and fresh burdens on trade from rising container depot charges.

The week was also marked by a revenue collection shortfall heading into the fiscal year-end, and pushback from the garment industry against US allegations of forced labour and overcapacity.

The following is a recap of those major stories as covered by Star Business.

$2 billion out of pocket as energy costs surge, says finance minister (April 19)

Bangladesh has incurred nearly $2 billion in additional energy costs owing to global supply chain disruptions, Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury said while addressing an event in Washington. He called for urgent budget support to ease fiscal pressure and shore up weakened banks.

Gas shortage brings DAP fertiliser production to a halt (April 20)

Production at the state-owned DAP Fertilizer Company Limited in Chattogram ground to a halt after an acute ammonia shortage, itself a consequence of the prolonged closure of five urea factories, including CUFL and Kafco, disrupted by gas supply problems tied to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

ICDs raise charges, a day after fuel price hike (April 21)

Private inland container depots hiked handling charges by 8.5 percent, just one day after diesel prices climbed 15 percent. Exporters immediately protested the move, warning it would raise trade costs and further weaken Bangladesh's competitiveness in global markets.

Missed targets: NBR needs Tk 2.6 lakh crore by June to avoid shortfall (April 22)

The National Board of Revenue faces a Tk 2.6 lakh crore collection target in the final quarter of FY26 after falling nearly Tk 1 lakh crore short of its nine-month goal. Analysts pointed to slowing GDP and elevated energy costs as the chief obstacles to closing the gap.

No overcapacity, forced labour in apparel sector (April 23)

The BGMEA firmly rejected US allegations of forced labour and overcapacity in Bangladesh's garment sector. In a formal position paper, the association said that its exports support rather than undercut the US economy, and that the industry operates in full compliance with internationally recognised labour standards.