The government’s development expenditure in the first seven months of the current fiscal year 2025-26 (FY26) has slumped to its lowest level in at least 16 years amid fiscal restraints and political disruptions.

Ministries and divisions spent just Tk 50,556 crore – a mere 21.18 percent of the total Annual Development Programme (ADP) outlay – during the period, shows Implementation Monitoring and Evaluation Division (IMED) data published yesterday.

During the same period in FY25, when operations were disrupted by a mass uprising and administrative instability, the ADP implementation rate stood at 21.52 percent. The rates were 27.11 percent and 28.16 percent in FY24 and FY23, respectively.

The slowdown is particularly acute in the health sector, which has recorded dismal implementation rates despite growing concerns about healthcare accessibility.

The Medical Education and Family Welfare Division has utilised only 2.98 percent of its allocation, while the Health Services Division has managed just 6.59 percent, according to the IMED.

Md Deen Islam, research director at Research and Policy Integration for Development (RAPID), blamed lackings in “institutional capacity” for the slow spending.

“The underperformance in the health sector reflects deeper governance challenges. In many cases, those in charge hesitate to take bold decisions, particularly when procurement-related scrutiny creates a climate of fear. That affects implementation,” he added.

The underperformance comes as Bangladesh continues to grapple with one of the world’s highest rates of out-of-pocket health expenditure.

This has led to a “structural vulnerability that demands urgent policy attention,” Islam said.

“A single chronic or terminal illness can push a non-poor family into poverty,” he warned, citing data from the Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey showing stagnation in key health indicators.

He emphasised that without immediate increases in health investment and execution, Bangladesh risks falling further behind on crucial development metrics.

The broader spending slump reflects multiple headwinds. For the current fiscal year, the government allocated Tk 238,695 crore for the ADP, including funds from autonomous bodies.

However, during the July-January period, utilisation of both state funds and foreign loans has declined sharply.

Foreign fund spending fell to approximately Tk 18,668 crore, while government funds amounted to Tk 28,052 crore, down from Tk 30,096 crore in FY25.

This deceleration comes as the interim government implemented a reduced, austerity-focused ADP that slowed or postponed certain projects initiated by the previous administration.

Planning ministry officials note that several contractors fled the country before completing their work following the mid-2024 political changeover, further hampering implementation.

RAPID’s Islam largely agreed, noting that smaller projects may have received less attention as larger initiatives were prioritised.

Infrastructure sectors have fared considerably better than social services.

Among the top 15 recipients of allocations, the Ministry of Water Resources achieved the highest implementation rate at 41.10 percent, followed by the Energy and Mineral Resources Division with 40.66 percent, and the Local Government Division with 36.91 percent.

For Islam, the health shortfall is particularly worrying given Bangladesh’s demographic outlook.

He warned, “Within 15 to 20 years, Bangladesh will gradually transition into an ageing society. Without adequate investment in health infrastructure and human resources, fiscal pressure will intensify.”

He urged authorities to view health spending through an economic lens, noting that Bangladesh maintains a low ratio of nurses and support staff compared to doctors.

“Expanding this workforce would improve service delivery while generating jobs. Health investment is not just social spending, it is also an economic strategy,” he said.

However, Islam said ADP implementation may accelerate under the newly elected political government.

A modest uptick in January offered limited encouragement. The month recorded 3.64 percent implementation of the revised ADP, marginally up from 3.55 percent in January 2024.

“As an elected party, the BNP will have to deliver on its pledges, including job creation, expanding health services, and reducing out-of-pocket costs,” Islam said.

Ashikur Rahman, principal economist at the Policy Research Institute of Bangladesh, concurred that a full-fledged political government could help strengthen ADP spending by accelerating countrywide development activities.

The reciprocal trade deal signed by the interim government with the United States has raised questions regarding the economic sovereignty of Bangladesh, especially in decisions on trade, energy and security.

Critics point to several binding and conditional clauses that allow Washington to terminate the agreement and restore steep tariffs if its concerns are not addressed.

For example, take the digital trade facilitation provision in the deal.

The agreement says that if Bangladesh signs a new digital trade deal with any country that jeopardises essential US interests, Washington may terminate the pact and reimpose the 37 percent reciprocal tariff on Bangladeshi exports.

That was the tariff rate the US had proposed in April 2025.

The same condition applies if Bangladesh enters into a new bilateral free trade or preferential agreement with what the US terms “a non-market country” -- nations it does not recognise as market economies.

The agreement says that if consultations with Bangladesh fail to resolve American concerns, the United States may withdraw from the deal and reinstate the 37 percent tariff.

The rate is high enough to sharply reduce Bangladesh’s exports to the US, a costly prospect given that the country earns roughly one-fifth of its export revenue from garments and other goods sold to American buyers.

The deal, signed on February 9 between the interim government and the Trump administration, also restricts Bangladesh from purchasing “any nuclear reactors, fuel rods, or enriched uranium from a country that jeopardises essential US interests”.

An exception applies to “the procurement of proprietary materials for which there are no alternative suppliers or technologies, or materials contracted prior to the entry into force of this agreement required for existing reactors”.

This suggests that supplies for the Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant, built with Russian technical and financial support through Russian state corporation Rosatom, may continue.

But any future nuclear project could fall under tighter scrutiny.

Citing the section on economic and national security, BRAC Executive Director Asif Saleh, in a Facebook post, said, “This is the most important and controversial part of the agreement, as it raises questions about ‘sovereignty’.”

The section adds, “The United States shall work with Bangladesh to streamline and enhance defence trade.”

On the nuclear restriction, Saleh said, “This could create risks for Bangladesh’s energy security.”

The deal also opens the door for US direct investment to “explore, mine, extract, refine, process, transport, distribute and export critical mineral resources”.

In addition, Bangladesh is required to purchase $3.5 billion worth of American agricultural products. This includes at least 700,000 tonnes of wheat annually for five years, at least $1.25 billion or 2.6 million tonnes of soy and soy products, and cotton.

Bangladesh shall also need to buy 14 Boeing aircraft initially and $15 billion worth of liquefied natural gas (LNG) over 15 years, apart from increased purchases of US military equipment and limits on defence equipment purchases from certain countries.

“It appears more like an imposed purchasing obligation than free trade,” said Saleh. “Regardless of Bangladesh’s actual needs or capacity, it effectively ensures profits for US companies.”

Mustafizur Rahman, distinguished fellow at local think tank Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), said bulk commodities in Bangladesh are usually imported by private sector businesses, not the government.

If traders can source goods more cheaply elsewhere, he asked, why would they buy from the United States?

In that case, Rahman said the government may have to offer incentives to persuade private importers to purchase American products, adding to fiscal pressure.

In an interview with The Daily Star last week, Professor Selim Raihan, executive director of the South Asian Network on Economic Modeling (Sanem), said that Bangladesh could be compelled to buy more expensive goods even when cheaper alternatives are available.

“If we find a cheaper source elsewhere, we may not be able to choose it,” he said. “This will put additional pressure on our foreign exchange.”

“How are we going to finance aircraft purchases and energy imports? There is a risk of increased reliance on foreign loans,” Raihan said.

Anwar-ul Alam Chowdhury (Parvez), president of the Bangladesh Chamber of Industries, said the agreement indicates that Bangladesh should reduce its dependence on China for raw materials.

The deal also contains a provision on Rules of Origin. It says that if the benefits of the agreement accrue substantially to third countries or their nationals, either party may establish Rules of Origin to reflect the intention of the agreement.

Parvez said the third country clause should have been defined more clearly.

The agreement has not been made public, with officials citing a non-disclosure provision. Amid growing concern, the Chief Adviser’s Office said in a statement that it had inserted “an exit clause” into the deal.

“There was no scope for any country to terminate the agreement,” it added. The statement did not clarify whether Bangladesh exports would again face a 37 percent tariff, up from 19 percent, if the agreement were terminated.

A total of 2,100 metric tonnes of non-basmati coarse rice have been imported through Benapole port over six working days.

The consignments, brought in through 15 separate shipments, entered the port's 31 No transhipment yard, Port Director Shamim Hossain said today (17 February).

According to port sources, the imports took place between 27 January and 17 February. Earlier, 6,128 metric tonnes of rice were imported through the port during the four months from August to November last year.

On 18 January, the government allowed 232 importing firms to bring in 2,00,000 metric tonnes of rice, setting 3 March as the deadline for completing the imports and marketing the grain in Bangladesh.

The importing firm Haji Musa Karim & Sons brought the rice from India, while C&F agent M/s Bhuiya Enterprise is handling the clearance process.

Abdus Samad, proprietor of Haji Musa Karim & Sons, said the firm imported the 2,100 metric tonnes of coarse rice from India in 58 trucks over six days. The import cost up to Benapole port stood at Tk50 per kg, and the rice is expected to be sold in the open market at Tk51 per kg, he added.

Port Director Shamim Hossain said officials concerned have been instructed to ensure the quick release of the imported consignments from the port.

The dollar held gains on Tuesday as markets awaited signals, expected later this week, about the potential timing of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

The yen trimmed losses from a day earlier when worse-than-expected Japanese economic data stirred expectations that the government would ramp up stimulus. The Aussie dollar edged lower after minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia showed policymakers were in no rush to raise rates.

Trading was thin with many markets in Asia closed for the Lunar New Year holiday and following the President’s Day holiday in the US Key economic events lie later in the week, with minutes from the Fed’s last meeting and advance figures on US gross domestic product.

“We’re quite positive on the US economy,” said Kristina Clifton, senior currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney. “The market is currently pricing a high chance of a June interest rate cut, which is also our view. However, we differ from the market in that we expect a follow-up cut in July.”

“We judge that the most important driver of the dollar through 2026 will be the narrative of US exceptionalism,” she added.

The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, inched up to 97.12 after a 0.2 percent gain in the previous session. The euro slid 0.1 percent to $1.184.

The yen strengthened 0.3 percent to 153.04 per dollar. Sterling weakened 0.11 percent to $1.3607.

Data on Friday showed US consumer prices increased less than expected in January, giving the Fed additional leeway for policy easing this year. Money market traders are pricing about 59 basis points of easing for the rest of this year.

The Fed’s Open Market Committee issues minutes from its January meeting on Wednesday. Other key data points this week include inflation readings for Britain, Canada and Japan, as well as preliminary readings of global business activity on Friday.

A recent rally in the yen stalled on Monday when official figures showed Japan’s economy barely grew last quarter. Japan’s currency remains about 4 percent weaker against the dollar since fiscal dove Sanae Takaichi became prime minister last year.

Money flowing into Japan’s ebullient stock market along with expected rate hikes by the Bank of Japan are starting to turn the tide on yen weakness, said Bart Wakabayashi, the Tokyo branch manager at State Street.

“Investments continue to come into Japan and it’s looking good,” he said. “Real money investors have been reducing their overweight in dollar-yen, so buying the yen and selling the dollar.”

Exports from the Port of Los Angeles, the busiest US gateway for ocean trade, fell 8% in January to the lowest monthly output in nearly three years, Executive Director Gene Seroka said on Tuesday.

"Exports to China look dismal," Seroka said after the Port of Los Angeles handled 104,297 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs) of loaded export containers in January.

President Trump's aggressive use of tariffs has upended global trade and retaliatory trade duties from China and other nations have hit US exporters like farmers particularly hard.

Soybean shipments from the Port of Los Angeles to China dropped 80% last year, Seroka said, adding that the trade did not improve in November or December, following discussions between representatives of the two nations on the sidelines at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit.

"There's not much that the United States is exporting to China these days," said trade expert Chad Bown, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute of Economics, who added that outgoing US shipments of everything from beef and corn to crude oil and coal also fell in 2025.

Closely watched imports to the Port of Los Angeles came in at 421,594 TEUs in January, down 13% from the unusually strong result the year earlier, Seroka said.

So far, imports in February appear relatively flat compared with a year earlier. Imports will slow in March due to China factory closures for the Lunar New Year holiday, he said.

Still, Seroka expects total first-quarter volume at the port to fall less than 10% versus the year-earlier quarter, when US importers were rushing in goods before President Donald Trump's threatened tariffs on countries like China took effect.

"I don't see the economy or cargo volume dropping off a cliff after that, and even though holiday sales were softer than we would have liked, I don't see a dire situation," Seroka said, referring to lackluster US December retail sales that signaled potential weakness in consumer spending that drives about 70% of the nation's total economic activity.

Senior executives from major British banks are set to hold their first meeting on Thursday to advance plans for a national alternative to US-owned payment networks Visa and Mastercard, amid concerns about the United Kingdom's reliance on foreign systems.

The meeting will be chaired by Vim Maru, chief executive of Barclays' UK operations, and will bring together a group of City institutions tasked with financing a new payments company, currently known as DeliveryCo. The initiative aims to ensure the UK economy can continue functioning in the event of disruption to existing card networks, says the Guardian.

Visa and Mastercard currently facilitate around 95% of UK card transactions. One executive involved in the discussions said that if the services were disabled, the UK would be "sent back to the 1950s" when businesses relied entirely on cash.

The project has been under discussion for several years and is backed by the government, although it is being funded by private-sector institutions. Participants in the funding group include Lloyds Banking Group, NatWest, Santander UK, Nationwide and the ATM network Link. Visa and Mastercard are also part of the group.

The initiative has gained urgency against a backdrop of geopolitical tensions. Some executives have expressed concern that US-owned networks could be disrupted during periods of political strain. European officials have voiced similar worries in recent years, with some calling for a "European Airbus for payment systems" to reduce dependence on foreign providers.

The potential vulnerability of national payment systems has been highlighted in the past. In Russia, US sanctions led Visa and Mastercard to suspend certain services, limiting access to funds for some users.

UK officials have framed the proposed system as a resilience measure rather than a replacement for existing providers. They describe it as providing "extra resilience" and serving as an "additional payment rail" within the financial landscape.

The Bank of England is developing infrastructure blueprints for the proposed system, which are expected to be handed to the funders next year. The new payments system is projected to be operational by 2030.

Visa and Mastercard have said they remain committed to the UK market and welcome competition that fosters innovation and choice.

Gold dropped more than 2 percent on Tuesday, as holidays in major markets hit liquidity, while a stronger dollar and easing geopolitical tensions added to the pressure.

Spot gold dropped 1.5 percent to $4,917.90 per ounce by 0800 GMT after hitting $4,862 per ounce, its lowest level in more than a week. US gold futures for April delivery lost 2.2 percent to $4,936.60 per ounce.

“Thin liquidity with the holidays in the last 24 hours, especially in China and Asia, but also obviously in the United States too, means we just lacked a bid in the market,” said Kyle Rodda, senior market analyst at Capital.com.

Mainland Chinese, Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan and South Korea markets are closed for the Lunar New Year holidays. US markets were shut on Monday for Presidents’ Day.

The US dollar index rose 0.3 percent against a basket of currencies, making greenback-priced bullion more expensive for holders of other currencies.

The minutes of the Federal Reserve’s January meeting, due Wednesday, could give investors further clues about the central bank’s future monetary policy path. The market currently expects the first of three interest rate cuts for the year to be in June, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool.

“Now it’s going to be interesting to see what these FOMC minutes say in the sense that the markets want many more rate cuts now than what the Fed said that it would do,” said Ilya Spivak, head of global macro at Tastylive.

Non-yielding bullion tends to do well in low-interest-rate environments.

On the geopolitical front, US President Donald Trump said Monday he would be “indirectly” involved in US–Iran nuclear talks in Geneva on Tuesday, while Ukrainian and Russian representatives will also meet there this week for US-mediated peace discussions.

“The immediate range top (for gold) is somewhere around $5,120, but the next real kind of objective here is back to the highs at $5,600 or so, and then of course, we march to record highs,” Spivak said.

Bangladesh Bank (BB) has clarified that no final decision has been taken regarding the issuance of digital bank licences, amid reports published in several national dailies.

As part of the government's initiative to expand technology-driven inclusive financial services and build a "Cashless Bangladesh," Bangladesh Bank issued a public notice on August 26, 2025, inviting applications for establishment of digital banks. Applications received within the stipulated timeframe are currently being evaluated in accordance with relevant policies and prescribed procedures.

The evaluation process is being conducted in phases by three separate committees: the Technical Evaluation Committee (TEC), the Business Evaluation Committee (BEC) and the Financial Evaluation Committee (FEC).

At the 447th meeting of the Board of Directors held on February 16, 2026, progress reports on the ongoing evaluation process were presented to the Board alongside other agenda items, it said.

According to the central bank, discussions at the meeting were limited strictly to procedural aspects, including the evaluation process and criteria. No decision regarding the granting of digital bank licenses was taken at the meeting.

However, on the same day, a small group of bank officials reportedly organized a press conference on the digital bank licensing issue without prior authorisation from the appropriate authority. Despite the absence of any decision-making agenda on the matter, several national newspapers published reports without adequately verifying the information, leading to what the central bank described as misleading coverage.

Bangladesh Bank expressed concern that such reports could create confusion and misperceptions among the public. The central bank urged media outlets to verify information with the appropriate authorities before publication and to avoid one-sided reporting on controversial matters. It also called on the media to uphold responsible journalism by presenting the views of all relevant parties in the public interest.

Two listed general insurers, Crystal Insurance Company Limited and Sena Insurance PLC, have declared cash dividends for the year ended 31 December 2025, alongside mixed investor reactions despite stronger earnings.

Crystal Insurance's board of directors has recommended a 12% cash dividend, after reporting higher profitability.

The company reported earnings per share (EPS) of Tk3.34, net asset value (NAV) per share of Tk27.65 and net operating cash flow per share (NOCFPS) of Tk1.74 for the year ended 31 December 2025.

In comparison, it posted EPS of Tk3.13, NAV per share of Tk25.67 and NOCFPS of Tk2.20 for 2024.

Its annual general meeting is scheduled for 30 March at 11:00am via a digital platform, with 9 March fixed as the record date.

Following the dividend declaration at the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE), Crystal Insurance's share price fell 4.58% today (17 February) to close at Tk81.20, reflecting investor reaction despite improved earnings performance.

Meanwhile, Sena Insurance has recommended a 15% cash dividend for 2025. The insurer reported EPS of Tk5.17, NAV per share of Tk28.58 and NOCFPS of Tk5.00 for the year, compared to EPS of Tk4.29, NAV per share of Tk25.16 and NOCFPS of Tk7.23 in the previous year.

The company will hold its AGM on 31 March at 11:30am under a hybrid system, allowing both physical presence and participation through a digital platform. The record date has also been set for 9 March.

In a separate disclosure, Sena Insurance said its board has decided to purchase 11.31 decimals of land in Narayanganj' Rupganj upazila for Tk1.28 crore, excluding registration and other fees, subject to approval from the Insurance Development and Regulatory Authority (Idra).

After the announcements, Sena Insurance's share price declined 3.13% to Tk58.90.

The pre-IPO shares held by the sponsors, directors and placement shareholders of Asiatic Laboratories will remain under lock-in until three years beyond the existing lock-in expiry date or until the completion and commercial operation of its proposed 32-storey building — whichever occurs later.

The decision was taken by the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) today (17 February), according to a press release. The extended lock-in will apply to shares held by 183 individuals and institutions mentioned in the company's prospectus.

The regulator said the decision was made considering recommendations from an inspection report of the Dhaka Stock Exchange, prevailing market conditions and the interest of general investors.

Asiatic Laboratories received approval from the commission at its 837th meeting on 31 August 2022 to raise Tk95 crore through an initial public offering (IPO). According to its prospectus, the company planned to use the IPO proceeds for business expansion, including purchase and installation of machinery, construction of a factory building, repayment of bank loans and covering issue management expenses.

However, the company has yet to complete the utilisation of the IPO funds.

Without completing the utilisation process and without conducting project evaluation, feasibility studies or securing necessary regulatory approvals — including building plan approval from RAJUK and environmental clearance — the company disclosed price-sensitive information on 28 September 2025, announcing an ambitious plan to construct a 32-storey building.

The BSEC also noted that entering into the real estate or hotel business through the construction of such a building is not consistent with the company's Memorandum of Association. An inspection conducted by the DSE identified these inconsistencies.

Premier Cement Mills PLC has received regulatory approval to raise Tk161 crore through the issuance of preference shares, as the company moves to restructure its balance sheet and reduce rising finance costs.

The Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC), in a letter dated 16 February, approved the cement maker's plan to issue 322 fully redeemable, non-convertible, non-participating and cumulative preference shares of Tk50 lakh each at par, totalling Tk161 crore, under the Securities and Exchange Commission (Issue of Capital) Rules, 2001.

According to the company, the proceeds from the preference shares will be used to restructure its existing balance sheet and repay high-cost short-term liabilities, in line with a decision taken by its board of directors and later endorsed by shareholders at an extraordinary general meeting.

Following the disclosure filed with the Dhaka Stock Exchange today (17 February), Premier Cement's share price remained unchanged at Tk39.30.

Preference shares are a class of stock that entitles holders to receive dividends ahead of ordinary shareholders. In the event of liquidation, preference shareholders also have priority over common shareholders in claims on company assets.

The approval comes after an earlier setback. In June 2025, the BSEC rejected Premier Cement's initial application to issue the preference shares, citing the absence of required provisions in the company's Memorandum of Association.

The company later amended the memorandum and submitted a fresh application in October 2025.

In a letter issued on 5 October, the commission asked the bourse to provide its opinion on the proposed issuance within 15 working days. The DSE later gave its consent, paving the way for the commission's final approval.

Explaining the move, the company said rising bank lending rates had significantly increased its financing burden.

"The interest rate on bank loans has increased significantly. That is why the company is going to issue preference shares," it said in a statement, adding that lending rates from local banks have exceeded 14%.

Repaying part of its existing loans would help cut interest expenses, it added.

Financial disclosures show Premier Cement's performance weakened in the first half of FY26. Revenue for the July-December period slipped to Tk1,059 crore, while net profit fell 49% year-on-year to Tk1.97 crore.

The company attributed the sharp decline mainly to higher finance costs.

As of December 2025, Premier Cement reported Tk679 crore in long-term loans and Tk1,693 crore in short-term borrowings, alongside Tk24 crore owed to directors.

Finance costs rose to Tk122 crore during the period, up from Tk89 crore a year earlier, largely due to elevated interest rates.

The fresh capital injection is expected to ease liquidity pressure and strengthen the company's financial structure amid a challenging operating environment.

Stocks extended their losing streak for a second straight session today (17 February), with key indices edging lower as investors adopted a cautious stance following the swearing-in of the new government.

The benchmark DSEX of the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) fell 18 points to settle at 5,570. The blue-chip DS30 index also declined by 9 points to close at 2,126. Market breadth remained negative, as 238 issues declined against 131 advances, while 27 remained unchanged.

Turnover at the premier bourse slightly decreased to Tk1,222 crore compared to the previous session, indicating subdued participation.

Market insiders said investors remained watchful of the evolving political landscape after the new government took oath today, prompting many to lock in recent gains rather than take fresh positions.

Analysts expect investors to remain cautious in the near term as they assess policy signals from the new administration.

In its daily market review, EBL Securities Limited noted that profit-booking sentiment gripped the market for the second consecutive session, with investors choosing to realise gains from the recent election-driven rally and remain cautious amid the evolving political situation.

The market experienced see-saw trading throughout the session, reflecting a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers. Opportunistic investors continued to accumulate momentum-driven stocks, taking advantage of the prevailing risk-averse sentiment. However, late-session profit-taking, particularly in major large-cap scrips, ultimately dragged the indices into negative territory.

Among the most traded stocks were Square Pharma, ACI, City Bank, Dhaka Bank and BRAC Bank, reflecting active participation in heavyweight and banking sector counters.

On the gaining side, Shurwid Industries rose 9.83%, followed by AB Bank, BIFC, BD Welding and Tung Hai Knitting.

Meanwhile, Bay Leasing topped the losers' chart with a 9.25% decline, followed by Phoenix Finance, Midas Finance, Hamid Fabrics and AB Bank First Mutual Fund.