Bangladesh Bank's planned Tk40,000 crore refinance scheme to revive closed factories has raised concerns among economists and officials over its potential macroeconomic impact.

The initiative aims to boost production and protect jobs, but questions remain over how it will be financed.

Analysts say the source of funds will be critical in determining whether the scheme adds pressure on prices.

Concerns over inflation

Economists and central bank officials have cautioned that financing the scheme through fresh money creation could increase inflationary pressure by expanding the money supply.

Fahmida Khatun, executive director of the Centre for Policy Dialogue, said the issue is particularly important at a time when many banks are facing liquidity shortages and government revenue growth remains under strain.

"At present, many banks are facing liquidity shortages, and government revenue growth is also under pressure. If the central bank directly finances the scheme, it could add to inflationary pressure by increasing the money supply," she said.

She suggested that the fund could be mobilised through a combination of sources, including banks with stronger liquidity positions and allocations from the national budget, to help reduce inflation risks.

A senior Bangladesh Bank official also warned that injecting the full amount through the central bank could have a multiplied impact on overall liquidity due to the money multiplier effect.

"If the full Tk40,000 crore is injected by the central bank, the overall impact on the economy could be several times higher, putting additional pressure on prices," the official said.

The official added that such a move could complicate the central bank's efforts to control inflation, potentially creating a policy trade-off between maintaining price stability and supporting employment and industrial recovery.

MJL Bangladesh PLC, a leading lubricant and energy company, reported a 27% drop in consolidated net profit in the first nine months of FY26, primarily due to lower revenue and the withdrawal of key tax benefits.

According to the company's unaudited financial statements for the July-March period, the consolidated net profit dropped to Tk187.23 crore, down from Tk256.21 crore in the corresponding period of the previous year.

This downturn significantly impacted the company's earnings per share (EPS), which settled at Tk5.91 at the end of the first three quarters, compared to Tk8.09 during the same period a year earlier.

The company's consolidated net revenue also experienced an 8% decline, falling to Tk3,016 crore from Tk3,263 crore.

Management attributed the earnings slump to a combination of an 8% decline in revenue, a rise in minimum tax from 0.6% to 1%, and the withdrawal of a tax exemption on its oil tanker operations.

Standalone net profit also fell by over 17%, largely driven by the reduced profitability of the oil tanker segment.

However, the company posted a strong rebound in the third quarter. In January-March 2026, MJL's consolidated net profit rose 44% to Tk65 crore, supported by an 18% surge in revenue, which climbed to Tk1,148 crore, alongside a reduction in finance costs.

MJL Bangladesh, known for its state-of-the-art lube oil blending plant, remains a dominant provider of high-performance lubricants and energy solutions in the local market, while also maintaining an active presence in international exports.

MJL Bangladesh shares price edged up by 0.68% today (4 May) to reach at Tk88.70 at the Dhaka Stock Exchange.

Bangladeshi garment exporters will today ask visiting US trade officials in Dhaka to clarify how a promised zero reciprocal tariff will apply to apparel made with American cotton and other US textile inputs.

The provision is included in the US-Bangladesh Agreement on Reciprocal Trade signed in February this year, but exporters say they have yet to benefit from it.

“We will raise this issue with the USTR high-ups in the meeting tomorrow [Tuesday],” said Mahmud Hasan Khan, president of the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA).

A delegation from the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR), led by Assistant US Trade Representative for South and Central Asia Brendan Lynch, will visit Dhaka from May 5 to May 7.

In a statement issued ahead of the visit, the US Embassy in Dhaka said the United States looks forward to partnering on the implementation of the reciprocal trade agreement. The delegation is expected to discuss ways to strengthen trade and investment ties.

Under Article 5.3 of the reciprocal trade agreement, the United States commits to establishing a mechanism allowing certain textile and apparel goods from Bangladesh to enter the American market at a zero reciprocal tariff rate.

The deal says that a to be specified volume of apparel and textile imports from Bangladesh may qualify for the reduced rate. That volume will be determined in relation to the quantity of US-produced cotton and man-made fibre textile inputs exported to Bangladesh.

However, BGMEA President Khan said Bangladesh is not currently enjoying the benefits in the US market.

He said the zero-duty facility would be the main agenda at the scheduled meeting between the visiting officials and BGMEA leaders in Dhaka.

A senior commerce ministry official said the USTR delegation will also meet Commerce Minister Khandakar Abdul Muktadir at the secretariat today. Discussions are expected to cover the reciprocal trade deal, broader bilateral trade matters, labour rights and intellectual property.

The USTR is currently conducting two investigations covering 60 countries, including Bangladesh. One is about forced labour in industrial units, while the other relates to industrial overcapacity that could hurt the US manufacturers.

In a position paper submitted to the commerce ministry recently, BGMEA said the Bangladesh garment industry does not have overproduction capacity that could harm the American manufacturing sector and is free from forced labour, as exporters comply with internationally recognised labour laws.

The association said that in a market-driven economy, production levels constantly adjust to shifts in demand, input costs and supply chain conditions. Determining “excess capacity” without clear parameters or methodology is a major challenge.

According to USTR data, US goods trade with Bangladesh totalled an estimated $11.8 billion in 2025. US imports from Bangladesh stood at $9.5 billion, up 13.3 percent from 2024, while US exports to Bangladesh were $2.3 billion, up 1.4 percent.

The US goods trade deficit with Bangladesh was $7.1 billion in 2025, a 17.9 percent increase from the previous year.

Garments account for 86 percent of Bangladesh’s exports to the United States.

In its position paper, BGMEA said the Bangladesh apparel sector has not expanded suddenly or in a way that would indicate structural excess capacity. The industry growth should be viewed over the long term.

Over the past decade, the sector has followed a steady growth path, it said, driven by global demand and shifting sourcing strategies rather than policy-induced expansion.

After more than four decades of development, Bangladesh exported garment products worth $39.3 billion in fiscal year 2024-25, accounting for nearly 7 percent of the global apparel market. It is now the world’s second-largest garment exporter after China.

In 2025, Bangladesh accounted for 10.73 percent of US apparel imports by volume and 10.53 percent by value, according to the American Apparel and Footwear Association (AAFA).

This week, a separate USTR report said Bangladesh has stayed off the latest US intellectual property rights watch lists. However, Washington urged Dhaka to strengthen enforcement to prevent unfair trade practices.

In its annual Special 301 Report, the USTR identified 26 trading partners with concerns over intellectual property protection and enforcement.

State-owned companies listed on the stock market delivered mixed performances in the January-March quarter of the 2025-26 fiscal year, reflecting uneven sectoral health.

Quarterly public disclosures show energy firms, particularly oil marketing companies, remained profitable, while several entities in financial, gas and industrial sectors continued to incur losses, signalling structural weaknesses.

Oil firms maintain steady profits

The three listed oil marketing companies – Padma Oil Company, Meghna Petroleum and Jamuna Oil – remained profitable in the third quarter of the current fiscal year.

However, their revenues declined compared with the same period last year, reflecting weaker earnings from core operations. Non-operating income, however, played a significant role in sustaining overall profitability.

During the quarter, notable shifts were observed in cash positions and inventory management. Fluctuations in global fuel prices, import costs, stock management and cash flow dynamics were reflected in their financials.

Padma Oil posted a profit of Tk132.37 crore in the January-March quarter FY26, down from Tk145.38 crore in the same period in FY25. Its revenue fell to Tk85.43 crore from Tk92.30 crore.

Meghna Petroleum's profit dropped to Tk83.94 crore from Tk141 crore, while revenue declined to Tk22.95 crore from Tk28.02 crore.

The company said lower collections from customers and reduced payments to suppliers and employees significantly weakened cash flow from operations, leading to a sharp decline in net operating cash flow.

In contrast, Jamuna Oil recorded profit growth, earning Tk139.78 crore compared with Tk110.78 crore. However, its revenue declined to Tk52.12 crore from Tk70.41 crore.

The company in its disclosure said interest income on deposits with Sammilito Islami Bank was not recognised due to uncertainty over recovery. This reduced both total income and net profit, directly affecting earnings per share.

It added that a conservative accounting approach was adopted, excluding uncertain income, which resulted in lower reported EPS. The company also said reduced credit and accruals led to a decline in net operating cash flow per share compared with June 2025.

7 firms remain in red

The Investment Corporation of Bangladesh (ICB) continued to post heavy losses, reporting Tk277 crore in the quarter, up from Tk161 crore a year earlier. Notably, its revenue remained negative at Tk221 crore, compared with negative Tk63 crore in the same period last year.

Titas Gas Transmission and Distribution Company recorded a loss of Tk224 crore, slightly lower than Tk236 crore a year earlier. Its revenue declined to Tk8,613 crore from Tk9,023 crore.

Dhaka Electric Supply Company (Desco) managed to reduce its losses to Tk32 crore from Tk72 crore, while revenue edged up to Tk182.41 crore.

National Tubes Limited slipped into loss, posting Tk1.31 crore in losses against a profit of Tk1.43 crore a year earlier. Its revenue fell to Tk8.12 crore from Tk13.51 crore.

Eastern Cables Limited also remained in the red, reporting a loss of Tk3.45 crore, marginally lower than Tk3.58 crore a year earlier, although revenue rose slightly to Tk8.52 crore.

ICB's losses are seen as reflecting weak investor sentiment in the capital market. Meanwhile, continued losses at gas and power distribution firms also point to structural constraints, pricing issues and operational inefficiencies.

Signs of recovery in select firms

Power Grid Company of Bangladesh staged a strong turnaround, posting a profit of Tk94 crore, compared with a loss of Tk186 crore in the same period last year. Revenue rose to Tk715 crore.

The company said earnings per share increased by Tk6.58 year-on-year in the third quarter. It attributed the improvement to a significant rise in total income and a sharp reduction in overall expenses.

Bangladesh Submarine Cable Company Limited (BSCCL) also recorded robust growth, with profit rising to Tk74.43 crore from Tk47.82 crore a year earlier. Revenue increased to Tk125.31 crore.

The company said higher revenue from regular operations and increased other income drove the rise in earnings per share.

Eastern Lubricants Blenders Limited maintained its growth momentum, posting a profit of Tk4.28 crore, up from Tk1.57 crore a year earlier. Revenue climbed to Tk23.95 crore.

The improvement seen in companies such as Power Grid and BSCCL suggests that effective management, rising demand and supportive policies can enable state-owned enterprises to regain financial stability.

After the onset of the US-Israel war on Iran, some policymakers initially took a firm stance, publicly claiming credit for not adjusting fuel prices to shield consumers from global shocks. They argued that they did not want to pass the burden onto the people.

However, the government could not maintain its stance as it quickly unravelled under fiscal and market realities.

Within weeks, the government reversed course. It raised the price of a 12 kg liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) cylinder by 45 percent after two successive hikes in April.

On April 18, it also pushed fuel prices to record highs: diesel rose by Tk 15 per litre to Tk 115, octane by Tk 20 to Tk 140, petrol by Tk 19 to Tk 135, and kerosene by Tk 18 to Tk 130.

The scale and timing of these adjustments suggest that fiscal constraints, subsidy pressures, and external account vulnerabilities outweighed earlier political commitments.

From a macroeconomic perspective, such hikes drive costs and thus prices of commodities in the supply chain, as higher energy costs spread through transport, production, and supply chains, often creating second-round effects in import-dependent economies like Bangladesh.

A recent report on inflation dynamics of Bangladesh by the central bank showed gas price hikes have pushed up energy inflation to 14.9 percent during the January-March quarter of the current fiscal year 2025-26 from 14.4 percent in the previous quarter.

Economists say the effect of hiking petroleum prices is going to be felt soon, and consumers have already begun to feel the pinch. Transport costs for both passengers and freight have gone up. Farmers complained about the higher cost of harvesting rice and threshing the grains. Consumer goods companies are reducing pack sizes and squeezing margins to cope.

Yet, two ministers -- finance and commerce -- downplayed the inflationary risks.

According to a report published in this newspaper on April 20, Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury said, “It may increase or it may not. If the supply side remains stable, then prices may not rise.”

In reply to a question in the parliament, Commerce Minister Khandakar Abdul Muktadir said it was unlikely that the recent fuel price hike would exacerbate inflation, terming the adjustment “moderate.”

He said the 15 percent increase in diesel prices may raise commodity prices by around Tk 0.30 per kg. However, he said this would not have any major impact on overall inflation, which has remained around 9 percent for more than three years, deepening consumers’ woes.

The wage rate index for unskilled workers illustrates this trend. Inflation has outpaced wage growth for 50 consecutive months, steadily eroding the purchasing power of consumers, particularly those in middle- and lower-income groups. It means that real wages have been in the negative for more than four years.

Consumers are set to face further pressure as the commerce ministry has allowed refiners to raise soybean oil prices by Tk 4 per litre, or 2 percent.

The situation worsened by earlier supply disruptions triggered by the Iran War, which had already pushed up global energy and transport costs. Diesel-dependent sectors such as agriculture, manufacturing, and transport are now under additional pressure, raising concerns that the increased costs will eventually be passed on to consumers in an already high-inflation economy.

Mustafizur Rahman, distinguished fellow at the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), said the recent fuel price hike is likely to ripple across the economy through a “multiplier effect.”

He noted that fuel acts as a “barometer of commodity prices,” meaning its increase will inevitably influence a wide range of goods, though not uniformly.

He explained that the current situation reflects “cost-push inflation,” driven by rising input costs rather than demand.

However, he cautioned against overstating the scale of the impact, emphasising that the extent of price increases will depend on how significant fuel costs are within each product’s overall cost structure.

“If fuel accounts for a portion of total costs, a 15 percent increase in fuel prices does not translate into a 15 percent rise in final prices,” he said, illustrating that the actual effect would be proportionally smaller.

Rahman stressed that while some level of price increase is unavoidable, the degree to which it affects consumers will depend heavily on market behaviour and oversight.

“The pass-through to retail prices depends significantly on market management,” he said, warning that unchecked responses, such as transport operators raising fares disproportionately, could worsen inflationary pressures.

He also underscored the growing importance of regulatory monitoring, particularly in sectors with administered pricing, and highlighted the need for stronger safeguards for vulnerable groups.

“For low-income people, even a small increase in prices creates significant hardship,” he said, adding that effective implementation of social safety measures will be critical to easing the burden.

Mohammad Abdur Razzaque, chairman of the Research and Policy Integration for Development, echoed similar concerns, warning that higher energy prices would inevitably feed into overall price levels.

“If energy and oil prices increase, our price levels will increase. This is almost inevitable,” he said. “There is a ‘one-to-one’ correspondence, as the transmission channel is very deep.”

He explained that a fuel price increase typically triggers broader inflationary pressures across the economy.

“When oil prices increase, we’ve seen a 15-20 percent increase across different varieties. It exerts pressure on other supply chain elements, which overall impacts our prices. They might be saying it for political reasons, but the economic reality is that this will fuel inflationary pressure further,” he added.

Razzaque also noted that the impact is more severe in Bangladesh compared to other countries due to already elevated inflation.

“It’s not just happening in Bangladesh; many countries have already increased their fuel prices. The problem for Bangladesh is that our baseline inflation rate was already high, hovering around 9 to 10 percent. When this impact is added, it creates even more pressure. In countries like Cambodia, where inflation was lower, it was easier to absorb. But for us, it’s almost inevitable that prices will go up,” he said.

He also raised concerns over inflation measurement, especially LPG pricing. He said the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) relies on government-set rates, which may not reflect market reality.

Razzaque added that official figures could be misleading if based on listed prices rather than what consumers actually pay, urging surveys of real market prices for more accurate inflation data.

Paramount Textile, a listed company on the bourses, reported a year-on-year revenue decline of more than 15% in the first nine months of the current fiscal year, according to its consolidated quarterly financial statements.

Despite a nosedive in revenue, the company posted a slight increase in profit to Tk96.81 crore, compared with Tk96.41 crore in the same period last fiscal year. However, earnings per share (EPS) slightly dipped to Tk5.14 from Tk5.22.

The company said its operating profit fell 14% amid the revenue contraction. Still, higher income from other sources and gains from associate companies helped offset the decline, enabling Paramount Textile to register a modest profit growth during the July–March period.

Its report showed that its profit from associates companies surged 250% to Tk36 crore while its other income jumped by 631% to Tk10.81 crore.

It has investment in associates' companies—Paramount BTrac Energy Ltd, a 200 MW HSD power plant and Dynamic sun energy Pvt Ltd, a joint venture company between Paramount Textile Ltd and Global energy project holdings (GEPH).

According to its financial report, in the third quarter during the January to March, its revenue fell by 30% to Tk245.71 crore, a lower from Tk354.01 crore in the same time of the previous fiscal year.

Despite 25% declining in its operating profit, net profit surged 6% to Tk52.65 crore mainly due to increase in share of profit of associates companies.

In the three months, it earned Tk15.79 crore from its associates.

In FY25, Parmount Textile made a profit of Tk116.06 crore with an EPS of TK6.48. It had paid a 12% cash dividend for its shareholders.

Paramount Textile's shares closed at Tk61.60 each today (4 May) at the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE), a 2.38% down from the previous trading session.

Bangladesh’s total public debt burden has crossed Tk 22 lakh crore by December 2025 with a growing reliance on domestic sources as the government looks to “insulate the economy from foreign currency risks”.

Of the total debt, Tk 3 lakh crore was borrowed during the interim government period, according to the finance ministry’s latest quarterly bulletin.

The bulletin states the public debt stood at Tk 18.9 lakh crore at the end of June 2024, just a month before the interim administration assumed power. The figure was Tk 13.44 lakh crore at the end of June 2022.

During the interim period, domestic debt rose by Tk 1.70 lakh crore, reaching Tk 12.5 lakh crore by December. Foreign loans increased by Tk 1.47 lakh crore to Tk 9.59 lakh crore in the same period.

Domestic borrowing dominates the government’s overall debt portfolio. As of December 31, 2025, the domestic and external liabilities constituted 57 percent and 43 percent of the total government debt stock, respectively.

“By focusing on the local market, the government is deepening domestic liquidity while reducing its exposure to exchange rate fluctuations,” said the bulletin.

During the July-December period of the current fiscal year, the government’s total borrowing rose by Tk 62,428 crore, or 13 percent, compared to the same period a year earlier.

During the period, loans from the foreign sector dropped by 59 percent to Tk 10,130 crore, while domestic borrowing surged 70 percent to Tk 52,298 crore.

Of the domestic borrowing, Tk 19,470 crore was borrowed from the central bank alone.

Most of the domestic loans were raised through government securities. “A key feature of the government’s approach was a clear shift toward long-term debt,” the finance ministry said.

Meanwhile, total interest payment during the July-December period rose by 22 percent to Tk 71,253 crore. Of these, interest payment for domestic borrowing stood at Tk 61,866 crore, a 25 percent surge from the same period a year ago.

While increased domestic borrowing often raises concerns about “crowding out,” the current landscape suggests a unique window of opportunity, said the ministry.

It argued that ample liquidity in stronger banks, falling yields on government securities, and subdued private-sector credit demand create conditions for sustainable domestic financing without crowding out private borrowers.

By leveraging this internal liquidity, the state is building a more resilient and self-reliant fiscal framework that maintains stability without straining the private credit market, it added.

The country's premier bourse returned to positive territory today as a wave of bargain hunting helped the benchmark index snap a two-session losing streak, although overall market capitalisation fell by Tk5,000 crore.

Despite lingering concerns over global geopolitical dynamics and domestic economic factors, opportunistic investors moved in to accumulate beaten-down scrips, particularly in the banking and manufacturing sectors.

The benchmark DSEX index of the Dhaka Stock Exchange rose by 12 points to settle at 5,277, while the blue-chip DS30 index followed suit, gaining 4 points to close at 2,023.

Market participation showed signs of improvement as total turnover at the DSE climbed by 6% to reach Tk877 crore compared to the previous session.

According to the daily market review by EBL Securities, the capital bourse staged a modest rebound supported by resilient investor participation. The market opened on a firm note with steady accumulation through the mid-session.

However, the upward momentum was somewhat tempered toward the end of the day as cautious selling from some quarters trimmed intraday gains.

Interestingly, while the key indices rose, the overall market capitalisation at the DSE dropped by Tk5,000 crore to settle at Tk6.81 lakh crore, a phenomenon largely attributed to the price adjustment of high-cap stocks.

On the sectoral front, the banking sector dominated market activity, accounting for 19.1% of the total turnover. This was followed by the engineering and pharmaceutical sectors, which contributed 12.5% and 12.4% to the day's volume, respectively.

In terms of returns, the ceramic sector led the gainers with a 3.1% increase, followed by jute at 2.9% and information technology at 1.5%. On the downside, the general insurance, mutual fund, and food sectors faced corrections, with general insurance declining by 1.0%.

The market breadth remained slightly in favour of the bulls, as 174 issues advanced compared to 159 that declined, while 63 remained unchanged.

Individual stock performance was highlighted by JMI Syringe and JMI Hospital, both of which surged by nearly 10% to lead the gainers' list.

On the other hand, City Bank emerged as the top loser of the day, shedding 13.33% of its value.

However, market analysts noted that this sharp decline was due to the technical adjustment of its share price following the record date for its 15% stock dividend declaration for the year 2025.

The positive sentiment was partially mirrored at the Chittagong Stock Exchange (CSE), where the CSCX index ended 6 points higher at 9,093. However, the CASPI edged down by 4 points to settle at 14,783.

Trading activity at the port city bourse saw a significant contraction, with turnover plunging by 59% to stand at a modest Tk16.77 crore.

Oil prices edged higher on Monday, supported by the absence of a US-Iran peace deal that kept supplies constrained and prices above $100 a barrel.

Brent crude futures were up 67 cents, or 0.6%, to $108.84 a barrel at 0400 GMT after settling down $2.23 on Friday. US West Texas Intermediate was up 65 cents, also 0.6%, at $102.59 a barrel, after a $3.13 loss on Friday.

"The broader market remains tightly supported by persistent supply disruptions and geopolitical uncertainty," said Priyanka Sachdeva, analyst at Phillip Nova.

"Unless there is a clear and sustained resolution that restores normal flows through the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices are likely to remain elevated, with risks still tilted toward further upside."

President Donald Trump said the US would begin efforts to assist ships stranded in the Strait of Hormuz, but prices stayed above $100 a barrel, with no peace deal in sight and shipping through the strategic waterway still constrained.

Negotiations between the US and Iran continued over the weekend, with both sides assessing each other's responses.

Trump has made securing a nuclear deal with Tehran a priority, but Iran wants to defer nuclear talks until after the war and first lift rival blockades on Gulf shipping.

On Sunday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies, known as OPEC+, said it would raise oil output targets by 188,000 barrels per day in June for seven members, marking the third consecutive monthly increase.

The rise matches that agreed for May, minus the share of the United Arab Emirates, which left OPEC on May 1. However, the additional barrels are expected to remain largely on paper as long as the Iran war continues to disrupt Gulf oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz.

Mobile operators have called on the National Board of Revenue (NBR) to withdraw value-added tax (VAT) on spectrum and spectrum-related fees, arguing the levy contradicts global norms and undermines investment in the sector.

In a recent letter sent to the NBR chairman, the Association of Mobile Telecom Operators of Bangladesh (AMTOB) described the proposed withdrawal as a vital step to rectify a fundamental misalignment in Bangladesh’s VAT regime.

The association said radio spectrum, the finite range of frequencies over which all wireless communication travels, is an intangible national resource administered by the Bangladesh Telecommunication Regulatory Commission (BTRC).

“Its [radio spectrum] assignment, renewal, and usage confer a sovereign regulatory right -- not a commercial supply of goods or services under any legal interpretation,” wrote Mohammad Zulfikar, the association’s secretary general.

Hence, imposing VAT on spectrum and spectrum fees, AMTOB argued, effectively turns a regulatory charge into a taxable transaction.

“Imposing VAT here transforms a non-commercial regulatory grant into an artificial taxable event,” it added.

According to the letter, telecom companies are required to pay VAT on spectrum fees without being able to claim input tax credits, increasing operational costs.

It said the BTRC’s lack of VAT registration prevents it from issuing standard invoices. “This renders the VAT non-creditable and traps it as a pure cost to the operators.”

AMTOB warned that the arrangement stifles network investment, 5G rollout, and rural coverage expansion.

It cited frameworks in the European Union, India, the United Kingdom, and Australia, where spectrum charges are treated as sovereign regulatory fees outside the VAT net.

“Bangladesh’s current approach deviates from this consensus, creating indefensible inefficiencies,” the letter said.

The association noted that the sector already carries a heavy tax burden -- corporate income tax, BTRC revenue sharing, spectrum and licence fees, and VAT on services.

“In 2024, we contributed approximately Tk 22,000 crore,” the letter noted, warning that additional non-creditable taxes could affect affordability and innovation in the sector.

In the letter, AMTOB placed two demands before the tax authority: the immediate withdrawal of VAT on spectrum-related payments, and formal clarification categorising these charges as sovereign regulatory fees outside the VAT net.

Shahed Alam, chief corporate and regulatory officer at Robi Axiata, said, “Treating spectrum fees as VAT-exempt regulatory charges, in alignment with global best practices, would restore tax neutrality, reduce financial pressure, and improve cost efficiency.”

An internal Bangladesh Bank (BB) document has revealed significant exposure of the country’s banking sector to high-risk of defaulted loans linked to six major business conglomerates.
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The confidential analysis highlights widespread vulnerabilities across multiple banks, raising concerns over asset quality and risk management in the financial sector.

The document, titled “Selected Lead Banks, Impacted by Six Groups”, categorises affected financial institutions based on their exposure to non-performing loans associated with six business groups. The groups or individuals identified are: Saifuzzaman Chowdhury, S Alam, Beximco, Sikdar, Nassa and Orion.

According to the data, Islami Bank Bangladesh PLC appears in five of the six exposure categories, indicating extensive involvement across multiple high-risk loan portfolios. Newly consolidated Sammilito Islami Bank PLC is listed under all six groups, suggesting that its balance sheet carries significant inherited non-performing assets from merged weak banks.

Other banks appearing frequently across the exposure lists include First Security Islami Bank, Social Islami Bank, Union Bank, Janata Bank, Rupali Bank, IFIC Bank, United Commercial Bank, AB Bank and Al-Arafah Islami Bank.

State-owned banks such as Sonali Bank and Agrani Bank are also shown to have notable exposure to defaulted loans linked to the identified groups.

In response to the rising systemic risk, Bangladesh Bank has initiated steps to assign selected institutions as “lead banks” to coordinate recovery efforts in collaboration with international firms.

The criteria for selecting lead banks reportedly prioritise institutions with prior experience in handling international non-disclosure agreements (NDAs), enabling them to manage complex negotiations and recovery processes.

The designated lead banks for each group are as follows:

Saifuzzaman Chowdhury group: United Commercial Bank PLC (lead), Islami Bank Bangladesh PLC, Al-Arafah Islami Bank PLC

S Alam group: Islami Bank Bangladesh PLC (lead), Janata Bank PLC, Sammilito Islami Bank PLC.

Beximco group: National Bank PLC (lead), Janata Bank PLC.

Sikdar group: IFIC Bank PLC (lead), Sammilito Islami Bank PLC, Agrani Bank PLC.

Nassa group: National Bank PLC (lead), IFIC Bank PLC, Al-Arafah Islami Bank PLC.

Orion group: United Commercial Bank PLC (lead), Agrani Bank PLC.

The document also states that banks undergoing or scheduled for merger will not be eligible to act as lead banks, reflecting ongoing policy considerations within Bangladesh Bank.

Officials said the move indicates a shift towards a more coordinated and externally supported recovery strategy aimed at addressing long-standing default loan problems in the banking sector.

A delegation of US trade representatives, led by Assistant US Trade Representative for South and Central Asia Brendan Lynch, will travel to Dhaka from May 5-7 to discuss ways to strengthen bilateral relations on trade and investment.

The United States looks forward to partnering on the implementation of the US-Bangladesh Agreement on Reciprocal Trade, which aims to enhance economic growth in both countries by improving market access, removing barriers to investment, and boosting commercial opportunities, according to a statement from the US embassy in Dhaka today.

Farmer Suman Tarfadar cultivated boro paddy on nearly 10 acres of land this year in the haor region. Continuous rainfall submerged and destroyed paddy on around seven acres of his land.

Of the crop he managed to harvest, half could not be dried due to a lack of sunshine and has already started sprouting. Altogether, he now expects to boil and store paddy from only one to one-and-a-half acres.

The farmer from Kadirpur Haor in Khaliajuri Upazila told TBS that despite farming on his own land, he spent nearly Tk3 lakh this season. Most of the crop went under water, while much of the harvested grain has sprouted. "No one will buy this paddy. Only a small amount can be saved. I have never suffered such losses before," he said.

He added that no one wants to buy wet paddy. Some grain from the field was sold for Tk500-Tk600 per maund. Those who managed to harvest and dry before the rain were getting slightly better prices. In previous years, raw paddy from the field sold for Tk800-Tk900 per maund.

This is not just Suman Tarfadar's story, but the reality for farmers across the haor belt. Heavy rain that began in the last week of April submerged paddy on more than 47,000 hectares across seven haor districts — Sunamganj, Sylhet, Habiganj, Moulvibazar, Netrokona, Kishoreganj and Brahmanbaria.

In the four districts of Sylhet division alone, nearly 34,000 hectares have gone under water.

According to the Department of Agricultural Extension, around 25% of paddy still remains in the fields. Farmers and locals, however, say the actual losses are much higher.

Most of Bangladesh's rice is produced during the boro season, with around 10% coming from haor areas. Sources at the agricultural extension department said boro paddy was cultivated on 9,63,000 hectares in the seven haor districts this year. Of that, 4,55,000 hectares were in haor areas and 5,08,000 hectares in non-haor areas.

Farmer Babulal Das from Kalnigar said he cultivated boro on 10 bighas of land. Harvesting is nearly complete, but drying the grain is impossible. "The yard and roads are wet from rain, and the fields are under water. I have nowhere to dry the paddy. It is now sprouting and will be useless," he said.

Farmer Mahbub Alam from Naluar Haor said he harvested paddy standing in water during rainfall, but without sunshine it cannot be dried. "The paddy is rotting, the straw is being ruined. We are in great distress," he said.

Woman farmer Sabana Begum from Shanir Haor said boiled paddy from 36 decimals of land could not be dried because of nonstop rain. "The paddy is rotting and giving off a smell. I cry when I look at it," she said.

Sources at the Department of Agricultural Extension said 57% of boro harvesting has been completed in Sylhet division this season. This includes 75% in haor areas and 33% in non-haor areas.

Additional director of the department in Sylhet division, Dr Md Mosharraf Hossain, said the remaining 25% of submerged paddy in haor areas could be completely lost. More grain is also likely to be damaged because it cannot be dried.

"There is no artificial arrangement to dry so much paddy at once. We have to depend on nature," he said. He added that the government began rice and paddy procurement from Sunday, which could reduce farmers' losses somewhat. Losses could fall further if mill owners began buying paddy, but they have not yet started purchases.

Meanwhile, the Flood Forecasting and Warning Centre under the Bangladesh Water Development Board said water in several rivers of the north-eastern haor basin is already flowing above pre-monsoon danger levels.

These include points on the Naljur River, Baulai River, Bhugai-Kangsha River, Someshwari River, Mogra River, Kalni-Kushiyara River and Sutang River.

Over the past 24 hours, moderate to heavy rainfall occurred upstream and across haor areas, and rain may continue for the next three days. As a result, water levels in the Surma River and Kushiyara River may rise further, crossing danger levels at some points by the second day and creating flooding in low-lying areas of Sylhet and Sunamganj.

Water levels in the Bhugai-Kangsha River, Someshwari River and Dhanu-Baulai Basin may remain stable over the next three days, though flooding in adjacent lowlands may continue.

In Moulvibazar and Habiganj, water in the Manu River, Khowai River and Juri River may stay stable for two days before rising on the third day, with the Juri River nearing warning level.

Overall, the agency said continuous rainfall is likely to prolong ongoing flooding in low-lying haor areas of the north-east, while creating fresh flood risks in some locations.

The country’s remittance inflow has reached $315 million in the first three days of May, reflecting sustained strong inflows from expatriate Bangladeshis, according to data released by the Bangladesh Bank (BB) on Monday.
FE

During this period, remittance receipts reached $315 million, marking a 260.1 percent increase year-on-year compared to $88 million in the same period last year.

On a cumulative basis, expatriate Bangladeshis sent $29,648 million in remittances from July to May 3, of the current fiscal year, significantly higher than $24,625 million recorded in the corresponding period of the previous fiscal year.

The continued rise in remittance inflow is playing a vital role in supporting external sector stability, strengthening foreign exchange reserves, and contributing to overall macroeconomic resilience.

The price of a 12kg cylinder of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) remains unchanged at Tk 1,940 for May.Business Policy Updates
FE

The Bangladesh Energy Regulatory Commission (BERC) announced the decision on Sunday, which would take effect from 6 pm. Bangladeshmarket report

The LPG prices were adjusted twice last month.

On April 2, the price of the 12kg cylinder was raised by Tk 387 to Tk 1,728. Later, on April 19, BERC hiked the price by Tk 212, setting it at Tk 1,940.

The private sector can sell LPG in various cylinder sizes-5.5kg, 12.5kg, 15kg, 16kg, 18kg, 20kg, 22kg, 25kg, 30kg, 35kg and 45kg-to consumers at proportional price in May.

The price of LPG supplied through a reticulated system or centralised storage system also remains unchanged at Tk 351 per cubic metre for May.

Meanwhile, the consumer-level price of autogas has been slightly increased by 2 paisa for May, setting the new price at Tk 89.52 per liter, including value added tax (VAT).

Autogas prices were also adjusted twice last month.

On April 2, the price was raised by Tk 17.94 to Tk 79.77 per liter. On April 19, BERC increased the price by Tk 9.73, fixing it at Tk 89.50 per liter.

Bashundhara Paper Mills, a concern of Bashundhara Group, has incurred a loss of Tk422 crore in the first nine months of the current fiscal year, mainly due to a shortage of raw materials and a rise in utility costs.

During the July-March period of FY26, the company's loss widened significantly from Tk184 crore in the same period a year earlier, according to its financial statement ended in March.

Its year-on-year revenue also plunged by 56% to Tk223.22 crore, down from Tk507.67 crore in the corresponding period of the previous fiscal year.

Despite the sharp decline in revenue, the cost of sales stood at Tk420.59 crore at the end of March 2026, compared to Tk482.11 crore in the same period a year ago.

The company reported an operating loss of Tk523.43 crore, up from Tk230 crore in the July-March period of the previous fiscal year.

Explaining the losses, company officials said operating profitability declined due to the unavailability of raw materials, increased utility costs, a sharp rise in input prices, and higher borrowing costs following interest rate hikes.

As a result, the company's earnings per share (EPS) deteriorated significantly, with per-share loss rising to Tk24.27 from Tk10.60 in the previous period.

However, net operating cash flow per share rose slightly to Tk8.95 during the July-March period of FY26, compared to Tk8.75 in the same period a year earlier. The net asset value per share declined to Tk33.60 as of 31 March.

The company said the improvement in cash flow was mainly due to reduced payments to suppliers and other operating creditors, which strengthened its overall operating cash position.

In FY25, Bashundhara Paper Mills incurred a loss of Tk329.91 crore, with a per-share loss of Tk18.98. Due to continued losses, the company did not declare any dividend for its shareholders for FY24.

The company's shares closed on Sunday at Tk26.30 on the Dhaka Stock Exchange, down 1.87% from the previous trading session.

The Cabinet has approved a set of tax measures for the import of completely new electric vehicles, including buses and trucks.

The decision was taken at a Cabinet meeting - chaired by Prime Minister Tarique Rahman - held in the Cabinet Room of the National Parliament at 6:45pm on Sunday (3 May), according to a statement from the Cabinet Division.

Under the decision, a notification will be issued to maintain the Value Added Tax (VAT) at 15% for electric buses with a minimum of 17 seats, for use in sectors other than student transportation.

At the same time, these imports will be exempted from customs duty (CD), regulatory duty (RD), supplementary duty (SD), advance tax (AT) and advance income tax (AIT), subject to certain conditions.

According to Cabinet Division sources, the National Board of Revenue will soon issue a notification in this regard. The facility will remain in effect till 30 June 2026 - i.e. the end of the current fiscal year of 2025-26.

It follows an earlier decision to allow the duty-free import of electric buses for educational institutions to promote safe and environmentally friendly transportation for students.

A similar notification will also be issued for the import of trucks with a capacity of five tonnes or more, the statement added.

The initiative was proposed by the Internal Resources Division, the statement said.

The United Arab Emirates has left the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC), an alliance that does not set production policies for its members, a statement from the intergovernmental organisation showed on Sunday.

The statement follows UAE's surprise announcement on 28 April of its departure from the OPEC and OPEC+ producer groups, to prioritise boosting its own output.

OAPEC was formed in 1968 with the aim of boosting cooperation among Arab oil exporters.

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) will back $70 billion in new energy and digital infrastructure initiatives by 2035, aiming to connect power grids, expand cross-border electricity trade, and improve broadband access across Asia and the Pacific.

The Pan-Asia Power Grid Initiative will connect national and subregional power systems so renewable energy can flow across borders, while the Asia-Pacific Digital Highway will help close the digital infrastructure gap and enable the region to benefit from AI-driven growth, reads a press release.

Under the Pan-Asia Power Grid Initiative, ADB will work with governments, utilities, the private sector, and development partners to mobilise $50 billion by 2035 for cross-border power infrastructure that can unlock renewable energy at scale.

The initiative will focus on transmission and grid integration, including cross-border lines, substations, storage, and grid digitalisation.

It will also support power generation linked to electricity trade, including renewable energy export projects, regional renewable hubs, and hybrid generation-storage facilities.

By 2035, ADB aims to integrate about 20 gigawatts of renewable energy across borders, connect 22,000 circuit-kilometers of transmission lines, improve energy access for 200 million people, create 840,000 jobs, and cut regional power sector emissions by 15%.

ADB expects to finance about half of the $50 billion initiative from its own resources and raise the rest through cofinancing, including from the private sector.

Up to $10 million in technical assistance will support efforts to align regulations, adopt common technical standards, prepare feasibility studies and advance other work needed for major projects.

The Pan-Asia Power Grid Initiative marks a shift from country-to-country energy links to a regional approach to power trade.

It builds on existing subregional cooperation initiatives, including the South Asia Subregional Economic Cooperation program, the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation grid interconnection planning, the ASEAN Power Grid, and the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation Energy Strategy 2030.

The Asia-Pacific Digital Highway will mobilise $20 billion by 2035 to finance digital corridors, data infrastructure, and AI-ready economies.

Investments will focus on connected infrastructure, including terrestrial and subsea fiber networks, satellite links and regional data centres.

ADB will also provide policy and regulatory support, including on cybersecurity risk management, and invest in skills programs to strengthen digital and AI readiness.

By 2035, the initiative aims to provide first-time broadband access to 200 million people and faster, more reliable digital connectivity for another 450 million people across the region.

It is expected to cut connectivity costs in remote and landlocked areas by about 40% and help create 4 million jobs.

ADB expects to finance $15 billion of the $20 billion initiative from its own resources and raise $5 billion through cofinancing, including from the private sector.

The Centre for AI Innovation and Development will be established in Seoul to support the initiative. Backed by a $20 million contribution from the Government of the Republic of Korea, the centre will promote responsible and inclusive AI adoption and help train about 3 million people in digital and AI-related skills by 2035.

ADB President Masato Kanda said that Energy and digital access will define the region's future.

"These two initiatives build the systems Asia and the Pacific need to grow, compete, and connect. By linking power grids and digital networks across borders, we can lower costs, expand opportunity, and bring reliable power and digital access to hundreds of millions of people."

The telecom regulator has decided to allocate 10 MHz from the highly valuable 700 MHz band to state-owned Teletalk, despite the operator owing around Tk 5,500 crore in spectrum fees and already holding significant unused or underused spectrum.

The decision was taken at a recent Bangladesh Telecommunication Regulatory Commission (BTRC) meeting, according to documents.

The 700 MHz band is considered globally valuable for wide coverage, strong indoor signal, low rollout cost, and suitability for rural-urban networks, including 5G. In Bangladesh, 45 MHz of the band is allocated for mobile use, while 20 MHz remains unused due to a legal dispute.

TIMELINE OF GOVT, REGULATORY ACTIONS

On February 8, just before the national election, the interim government, through the telecom ministry, sent a letter to BTRC instructing it to allocate 10 MHz of spectrum to Teletalk.

A day later, Teletalk applied for the spectrum.

On February 16, the ministry informed the regulator that Teletalk had proposed converting its unpaid dues -- including licence and spectrum fees -- into government equity, now under finance division review.

On April 9, BTRC sought guidance from the ministry on how Teletalk would pay for the allocation. On April 24, the ministry directed the regulator to proceed with the allocation, citing the need to reduce customer inconvenience in line with the government’s election manifesto.

The price was set at Tk 237 crore per MHz, matching the rate paid by Grameenphone for 10 MHz in January as the sole bidder in the auction.

The move means the government may forgo at least Tk 2,000 crore in revenue in the near term.

Only 5 MHz of available spectrum in this band will remain for Banglalink and Robi, both of which have large customer bases. The two operators did not join the latest auction, saying prices were too high.

Spectrum is a limited and valuable resource that countries manage carefully, as it is important for improving telecom services and generating government revenue. In Bangladesh, there have been concerns about spectrum management, particularly regarding Teletalk.

LARGE DUES AND UNUTILISED SPECTRUM

Teletalk holds 55.2 MHz across the 900, 1800, 2100, and 2300 MHz bands and serves around 68 lakh subscribers, giving it about 0.81 MHz per lakh users.

By comparison, Grameenphone has 137.4 MHz for 8.44 crore subscribers (0.16 MHz per lakh), Robi has 124 MHz for 5.74 crore users (0.22 MHz per lakh), and Banglalink has 80 MHz for 3.74 crore users (0.21 MHz per lakh).

Despite higher spectrum per subscriber, Teletalk’s voice and data service quality has been weaker than peers in BTRC quality tests over the years, and it has added only about 1 lakh subscribers in five years.

The operator has also not used 30 MHz in the 2300 MHz band acquired in the 2022 auction, despite rollout obligations, which is considered a breach of spectrum utilisation rules.

Teletalk’s total liabilities include Tk 120 crore in licence fees, Tk 102 crore in revenue sharing, Tk 5,506 crore in spectrum fees, and around Tk 62 crore in other charges.

EXPERT CRITICISM

“Private operators are required to follow strict rules, but public companies often do not face the same obligations, which creates a market imbalance,” said Khondaker Golam Moazzem, research director at the Centre for Policy Dialogue.

He added that large unpaid dues raise doubts about such firms’ ability to survive in a competitive market, noting they often rely on government support rather than efficiency.

TIM Nurul Kabir, a telecom expert, said, “Spectrum is a valuable resource and allocating it to an operator that cannot ensure good service or generate revenue is a poor regulatory decision.”

“The government needs a different approach to revive Teletalk rather than using up valuable resources. Such decisions are also anti-competitive,” he added.

Md Emdad ul Bari, chairman of BTRC, said the allocation was approved on the condition that spectrum charges would be converted into government equity.

He said this would not cause revenue loss, as funds would shift between state entities as equity investments.