Prime Bank PLC has signed a $30 million term-loan agreement with the Opec Fund for International Development (Opec Fund), an international development finance institution.

The strategic collaboration is expected to significantly enhance Prime Bank’s capacity to support critical trade finance requirements across the country’s small and medium enterprise (SME), agriculture, and corporate sectors.

Faisal Rahman, chief executive officer (current charge) of the bank, and Abdulhamid Alkhalifa, president of the Opec Fund, signed the agreement in Dhaka recently, according to a press release.

Commenting on the partnership, Alkhalifa said, “MSMEs and agribusinesses play a vital role in jobs, food security, and economic resilience in Bangladesh, yet many still struggle to access trade finance.”

“Our partnership with Prime Bank will help unlock new opportunities, diversify exports, and strengthen the country’s private sector. This loan builds on our long-standing collaboration and reflects our commitment to inclusive, sustainable growth,” he added.

Rahman said, “We are delighted to enter into this strategic partnership with the Opec Fund. The three-year expandable term-loan facility will meaningfully enhance our capacity to support the trade financing needs of our valued clients.”

“This collaboration comes at a critical time when businesses are navigating uncertainties in the global economic landscape,” he added.

The Opec Fund’s support reinforces our relationship and reflects its strong confidence in Prime Bank’s governance, operational resilience, and future ambitions in supporting the national economy, the release added.

The facility, structured as a term-loan, will be provided to Prime Bank’s offshore banking unit by the Opec Fund.

It carries an initial tenor of one year, with a provision for extension up to three years.

This financing is expected to strengthen Prime Bank’s trade finance portfolio, providing much-needed stability and support to Bangladeshi businesses navigating complex global economic headwinds.

A US naval blockade of Iranian ports is likely to squeeze Iran’s oil output in the coming weeks but claims it will throw the Islamic republic into economic free fall remain premature, analysts say.

After weeks of bombing and counter-strikes, focus has shifted to the standoff in the Strait of Hormuz, which ordinarily carries around a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas.

In response to Iran’s blockade of the strait since the start of the Middle East war, the US imposed a counter-blockade of the Islamic republic’s ports, a push to force its leaders into a compromise in peace talks.

That bid, however, looks set to fail, at least in the short term.

“If the blockade lasts for more than two or three months, it can cause more damage” to Iran, economic analyst and professor at Shahid Beheshti University in Tehran Saeed Laylaz told AFP.

“If Iran suffers any damage, the damage to the countries in the southern Persian Gulf will definitely be greater,” he added.

There’s a limit on how long Iran can bide its time, however.

Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, chief analyst at Global Risk Management said Iran “was expected to run out of storage capacity within approximately one month, but it may already be forced to shut in part of its oil production within a couple of weeks”.

‘COLLAPSING FINANCIALLY?’

Trump said Tuesday that Iran was “collapsing financially” under the blockade imposed by the US Navy on April 12, claiming that the country was “starving for cash”.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the blockade meant storage at Iran’s Kharg Island, the main export terminal through which most of the country’s crude is shipped, “will be full and the fragile Iranian oil wells will be shut in”.

Jamie Ingram, managing editor of Middle East Economic Survey (MEES), told AFP it was likely the timeline for Iran to hit its oil storage limits would be measured in “weeks rather than days”.

He added it was likely that “Iran will slightly reduce production before getting to the stage where storage constraints start to bite”.

According to analysis by oil expert Homayoun Falakshahi shared by energy intelligence firm Kpler, Iran’s crude production has already slowed since the start of the war.

Output fell by around 200,000 barrels per day in March to 3.68 million bpd and is expected to drop a further 420,000 bpd in April to about 3.43 million bpd, reflecting “the broader impact of export disruptions and refining constraints linked to the ongoing conflict,” Falakshahi said.

But Laylaz in Tehran said beyond the psychological effect of the blockade, the “real material effect has been small so far”.

Ingram said Kharg Island “shouldn’t be a particular bottleneck,” for Iran.

“This is the final storage facility used before oil is exported and Iran can divert crude oil to other facilities rather than straight to Kharg,” he said.

‘MUTUALLY ASSURED DISRUPTION’

The MEES expert also said Iran’s dependency on oil exports via Hormuz had “deepened due to the damage caused by US and Israeli strikes to other sections of the Iranian economy”.

“But Iran has also proven its ability to withstand huge oil-revenue declines during previous rounds of sanctions. I would not underestimate the regime’s resilience in this regard,” he added.

As the initial two-week truce between Iran and the US was set to expire Trump had said Tuesday he would maintain the ceasefire to allow more time for peace talks.

Iran said it welcomed the efforts by mediator Pakistan but made no other comment on Trump’s announcement, while vowing not to reopen Hormuz so long as the US blockade remains in place.

“It will take a long time before such economic pain forces Iran to compromise,” Ingram said, explaining it is “more likely economic disruption... pushes China into exerting more pressure on Iran to negotiate”.

Ali Vaez, Iran project director at the International Crisis Group, said “Iran’s economy was battered before the war, is contending with added strains caused during it, and now faces the combination of sanctions, seizures and potential strikes”.

“Iran’s leadership has previously shown a high threshold for pain even if the pressure on ordinary Iranians increases. It also likely calculates that its own efforts to subdue traffic through Hormuz act as a sort of mutually assured disruption,” he added.

Demand for rooftop solar systems across Europe has surged since the start of the Iran war, as households rush to shield themselves from soaring power prices triggered by the worst global energy disruption in history.

The ​conflict has pushed oil, gas and electricity prices sharply higher, hitting companies and households alike and accelerating efforts to find cheaper alternatives and reduce exposure to volatile energy ‌markets.

Solar is among those options, with demand from homeowners more than doubling for some industry players since the war began in late February, according to interviews with more than half a dozen energy equipment wholesalers and renewable utilities in Germany, Britain and the Netherlands.

It’s a timely boost for a technology that accounts for about a third of Europe’s total power capacity, but saw the pace of new installations dip last year for the first time in ​nearly a decade. Industry advocates argue Europe still needs to do far more to cut its reliance on imported oil and gas.

“The war has merely exposed the problem that has ​existed all along: energy dependency,” said Janik Nolden, co-founder of German privately owned solar equipment wholesaler Solarhandel24, adding European governments had been “walking into a trap”.

Solarhandel24 said net sales more than tripled in March to nearly 70 million euros ($82 million) from a year earlier, and are expected to triple again this month to ​as much as 60 million euros. The company plans to expand its workforce by about 85 people, roughly a third, to cope with demand.

To secure supply, Solarhandel24 has stocked up around half a ​million solar panels in recent weeks - a costly decision, Nolden said, but one he sees as worthwhile given the potential for net sales to rise to around 400 million euros in 2026 from about 250 million euros last year.

Germany’s Enpal is seeing a similar trend. The energy firm said orders rose 30 percent year-on-year in March to 130 million euros, while April was on track for a 33 percent increase to about 120 million euros, driven by rooftop ​solar installations.

“This is about European resilience,” said Enpal CEO and founder Mario Kohle. “We are seeing this trend in the defence sector too. Just as Europe must be able to defend itself, we must ​be able to supply our own energy.”

The financial figures from Solarhandel24 and Enpal have not been previously reported.

While aggregated installation data for Europe are not yet available, industry associations in Germany and the Netherlands have confirmed ‌a pickup ⁠in demand since the war began.

Executives say homeowners are increasingly opting for full systems combining solar panels - nearly 90 percent of which are supplied by China - with batteries and electric-vehicle wallboxes, allowing surplus power to be stored and used later.

That trend is also lifting demand for energy storage technologies, which Holland Solar’s Wijnand van Hooff says is seeing demand increases of 40 percent-50 percent.

“This cannot be explained by purely seasonal factors,” said Filip Thon of E.ON (EONGn.DE), , Europe’s largest energy network operator, which also sells rooftop solar systems. Customer requests, he said, have nearly doubled year-on-year.

A STRUCTURAL SHIFT?

Some executives also point to upcoming changes ​to Germany’s renewable energy law as an additional ​driver of demand for rooftop installations, which ⁠typically cost between 10,000 and 20,000 euros for an average family home.

The war-driven surge comes after the pace of new European solar installations slowed, in 2025, according to industry lobby SolarPower Europe, with weak residential demand a key factor following the phase-out of support schemes.

Shares in SMA Solar (S92G.DE), , the world’s third-largest ​solar inverter maker and one of the few remaining European equipment producers, have risen about 50 percent since the war began. The company has ​also reported an uptick in ⁠demand.

“We view the spike in demand as a structural shift that current geopolitical events are accelerating, not creating,” said Ed Janvrin, who heads the solar and heating business at Britain’s OVO Energy, adding April sales in the division were roughly 10 times higher than a year earlier.

Chinese solar manufacturers, however, say any war-related boost in global demand is unlikely to significantly ease the sector’s overcapacity, with China alone having enough ⁠manufacturing capacity to ​meet this year’s expected global demand nearly twice over.

Even so, the surge highlights how geopolitical shocks can rapidly reprice ​the value of renewables, said Jannik Schall, co-founder of German renewables firm 1Komma5Grad, noting that solar demand during the 2022 energy crisis had been even stronger.

“The recurring energy crises prove the renewables sector right.”

Stocks closed the week marginally higher, supported by bargain hunting in beaten-down equities, even as record-high fuel price hikes and persistent Middle East tensions cast a shadow over investor sentiment.

The benchmark indices managed to eke out gains as selective accumulation of undervalued stocks by tactical investors helped cushion broader market weakness.

Analysts noted that while geopolitical uncertainties continued to cloud the near-term outlook, resilient participation signalled underlying confidence in the market's medium-term trajectory.

The positive close came despite a significant headwind: the government on Saturday announced steep increases in fuel prices, pushing them to historic highs. Diesel was raised by Tk 15 per litre, octane by Tk 20, petrol by Tk 19, and kerosene by Tk 18, a move expected to exert inflationary pressure across supply chains and household budgets.

Despite energy price hike, the opportunistic investors engaged in bargain hunting while closely monitoring developments around the Middle East tensions.

The market opened the week on a cautious note, with the first two sessions closing lower as traders digested the fuel price shock and lingering uncertainty surrounding Middle East negotiations. However, sentiment pivoted mid-week following early indications of progress in ceasefire discussions.

Of the five trading sessions, the final three closed in positive territory, underpinned by renewed interest in high-quality large caps. Selective positioning in December-closing companies ahead of expected earnings announcements also supported the recovery.

The benchmark DSEX index of the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) finally rose 42 points or 0.79 per cent to close at 5,299, after remaining flat the previous week.

The DS30 index, comprising blue-chip stocks, gained 25 points to close at 2,015, while the DSES index, tracking Shariah-compliant securities, edged up 0.21 point to 1,067.

Analysts said any tangible progress in US-Iran negotiations could restore investor confidence and trigger a short-term rally.

According to EBL Securities, the market demonstrated resilience with sustained two-way participation throughout the week. Still, investors largely maintained a cautious stance amid evolving macroeconomic and geopolitical developments.

The ongoing corporate earnings season is expected to play a key role in determining near-term market direction. Strong earnings, especially from banking and pharmaceutical sectors, could attract fresh investment, said the stockbroker.

Selective gains in blue-chip stocks, including BRAC Bank, City Bank, Asiatic Laboratories, Eastern Bank and Power Grid Company of Bangladesh, largely contributed to the index rise, jointly adding more than 27 points to the benchmark index.Bangladesh economic statistics

Market liquidity improved notably during the week. Total turnover on the DSE stood at Tk 45.16 billion, up from Tk 32.7 billion in the previous week, aided by an additional trading session.

Accordingly, average daily turnover rose 10 per cent to Tk 9.03 billion, compared to Tk 8.18 billion a week earlier.

Sector-wise, the engineering sector dominated turnover with 17 per cent share, followed by textile (13.4 per cent) and general insurance (12.2 per cent).

Market breadth remained positive, with 194 issues advancing, 168 declining and 35 remaining unchanged out of 390 traded securities. Among sectors, general insurance posted the highest gain of 5.8 per cent, followed by power, telecom, food, non-bank financial institutions and banking.

City Bank topped the turnover chart with shares worth Tk 1.6 billion changing hands, followed by Dominage Steel, Acme Pesticides, Khan Brothers and Summit Alliance Port.

The Chittagong Stock Exchange also closed the week slightly higher. Its All Shares Price Index (CASPI) rose 70 points to 14,832, while the Selective Categories Index (CSCX) gained 52 points to close at 9,093.

The port city bourse recorded a turnover of Tk 1.46 billion, with 48.4 million shares and mutual fund units traded during the week.

Massive deregulation across major financial sectors of the "over-regulated" country is expected to be reflected in the coming national budget being crafted by the newly elected government.

Finance and Planning Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury dropped a broad hint at such changes on Saturday during an exchange- of- views meeting with editors of print, electronic and online media on the upcoming budget."Bangladesh is an overregulated country and needs deregulation," he says.Bangladesh economic statistics

The meeting, held at the Finance Division, was attended by Finance Secretary Dr Khairuzzaman Mozumder, Bangladesh Bank Governor Md Mostaqur Rahman and Financial Institutions Division (FID) Secretary Nazma Mobarek, among others.

The finance minister says the government is also considering the securitisation of public-infrastructure assets to mobilise funds for new projects.

"The Jamuna Bridge now carries no liabilities. It can be securitised, and the proceeds can be used for other development projects," he explains the new government's financial ideas.

On the size of the budget, the economic pointsman of the government headed by BNP chief Tarique Rahman says a larger outlay is necessary to support economic growth and attract investment.

Addressing demographic challenges, the finance minister stresses the need for increased investment in health and education to harness the country's demographic dividend.

He mentions that out-of-pocket healthcare costs remain high in the country, and for this reason, the government aims to improve the healthcare system.

"Once people become technically skilled, they will find employment both at home and abroad," he says while arguing increased allocation for the education.

The minister reiterates that the government is opposed to printing money. On the capital market, Mr. Chowdhury says the government has significant plans to strengthen the sector.Economic analysis reports

"You will see changes and development in the capital market soon," he says, adding that well-reputed and structured companies have been reluctant to float shares on the market as they believe that this is a "casino".

He hopes deregulation and greater participation by institutional investors could help improve market conditions.

On the recovery of laundered funds, Bangladesh Bank Governor Mr. Rahman says efforts are under way to retrieve such assets.

"We want to ensure that these funds cannot be consumed by plunderers," he tells the press in a strongly worded resolve of the regulator.

He warns that news of money printing could negatively affect the country's credit ratings, increasing borrowing costs for both the government and the private sector.

The new governor rules that fluctuations in government accounts held with the central bank are normal.

FID Secretary Ms. Mobarek says a taskforce has been formed to recover siphoned-off money. "The process is complex."

National Board of Revenue (NBR) Chairman Md Abdur Rahman Khan tells the meet efforts would be intensified to boost tax mobilisation, particularly through value-added tax (VAT).World news updates

He says although Bangladesh has over 12.8 million Taxpayer Identification Numbers (TINs), only about 5.0 million returns are filed.

"We will issue notices to those who have not submitted their tax returns."

He also says that corporate tax rates for both listed and non-listed companies have been reduced over the years from as high as 50 per cent.

Speaking at the programme, The Financial Express Editor, Shamsul Huq Zahid, points out that Bangladesh is facing weak revenue mobilisation, which is further strained by the Middle East crisis.

"In this context, the plan to raise the budget size to around Tk 9.0 trillion will be challenging," he says, cautioning that increased bank borrowing and 'high-powered money' could fuel inflation.

Channel I Head of News Mr. Shykh Seraj stresses the need for greater investment in agricultural research to ensure food security.

Speaking at another event, Finance Minister Amir Khosru has said the government plans to step up spending on health and education to fully harness the country's demographic dividend. A large share of the increase will go for vocational education to build skilled manpower, boost employment and raise remittance inflows.Bangladesh economic statistics

He says the government also aims to tap the "longevity dividend," noting that older citizens can continue contributing to productivity. However, higher allocations may face challenges linked to the inheritance economy.

The minister made the remarks at the pre-budget discussion organised by the Ministry of Finance on the day, attended by members of the Economic Reporters Forum (ERF) and journalists covering the ministry.

He says the economy must recover from past damage caused by money printing and heavy borrowing from local banks. "Such policies," he warns, "drive up interest rates and crowd out private investment, undermining sustainable growth."

The current government, he adds, is committed to avoiding inflationary financing through high-powered money and to easing pressure on the private sector-principles that guide its economic policy.

He alleges that past "patronage politics" concentrated economic power in a few hands, pushing the economy towards oligarchic control. The government is now prioritising the "democratisation of the economy" to reverse this trend.Financial news subscription

To ensure inclusive growth, he says, steps are being taken to empower women directly through the "family card" programme. As primary managers of household finances, women's access to funds can improve both savings and investment outcomes.

The minister stresses expanding primary healthcare to reduce out-of-pocket expenses, which erode living standards. Better access to basic care, he says, effectively raises real incomes.

He describes SMEs and startups as the backbone of the economy, noting that SMEs remain the largest source of employment. Efforts are also underway to integrate rural cottage industries, artisans and the creative economy into the mainstream.

Initiatives to upgrade product design, branding and marketing for rural artisans are being rolled out to help them reach global markets -- boosting both jobs and exports.

He adds that sectors such as sports, culture, theatre, film and music are gaining policy attention as emerging contributors to GDP.

On current challenges, he says the private sector is under strain from weak banking discipline, currency depreciation and persistent inflation, with many industries underperforming.

Raising the tax-to-GDP ratio remains "very difficult" under current conditions, he notes, as stronger business activity is essential for higher revenue collection, though efforts are ongoing.Economic analysis reports

He has also highlighted energy security, with plans to cut import dependence by exploring domestic resources and expanding renewable-energy use.

On market management, he says prices cannot be controlled through enforcement alone. Markets should function based on demand and supply, supported by stronger supply chains and lower business costs.

He concludes that deregulation will be key to attracting investment, as excessive barriers continue to deter investors.

Budget-support funding from foreign financiers seems drying up as only US$750 million has so far been confirmed although the financial year nears end with the economy facing unanticipated shocks amid global crises. Economic analysis reports

The country faces severe fund shortages caused due to heightened subsidy pressure amid the ongoing Mideast mayhem.

Finance Ministry officials say at least two major development partners have deferred talks on providing budget-support credit under regular arrangement and so they are now pursuing the financiers for lending the money in emergency balance-of-payments support.

According to them, the only development partner having confirmed budget support worth $750 million on completion of negotiations is the Asian Development Bank (ADB). The proposal will now be placed in board meeting early May, and if passed, the loan agreement will be signed when ADB President Masato Kanda visits Dhaka late next month.

Confronting such a situation at the very outset, the new government is also trying to secure an additional $250 million from the ADB to finance the additional spending incurred due to the fallouts from war and conflicts in the Middle East that force buying fuel oils and gas at excessive prices.

Sources have confirmed that the World Bank has rejected a government proposal for $250 million in budget-support credit under regular arrangement. Now the finance officials are pursing the World Bank to provide some $500 million under emergency support to meet the deficit being created under war's domino effect.

Also, the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) has deferred a planned budget-support programme until next fiscal year, "leaving nothing for this fiscal year", sources say.

A JICA team on April 29th is scheduled to meet with finance ministry officials to discuss financial assistances. Sources says the finance ministry officials may request the agency team to provide some $500 to $700 million as emergency assistance from the $10-billion fund Japan has created to help its Asian neighbours whose economy is reeling from severe crisis caused by the Iran war.

Sources say the government is also in talks with the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) for $700 million worth of budget support. However, the confirmation of AIIB financing will depend on consent from the co-financer.

The finance officials are not sure until now whether the AIIB credit will be finally available or not within this fiscal year that expires in little over two months.

Finance and Planning Minister Amir Khasru Mahmud Chowdhury recently visited Washington, DC, to attend the Spring Meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank Group.

The IMF has yet to give confirmation as to whether two due tranches of an ongoing credit programme, amounting to $1.3 billion, will be released for Bangladesh within this fiscal year, 2025-26.Bangladesh economic statistics

As such, the finance minister, in meetings with top officials of the IMF and the World Bank in Washington, requested emergency assistance worth $1.0 billion each from them to offset the energy shocks of an unprecedented scale amid the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian ports.

"All the development partners of Bangladesh are very positive to support us at this crisis moment," the minister told reporters after return from the United States. However, he wouldn't confirm how much assistance was secured so far.

"We are discussing with them emergency assistance," he says. In fiscal year 2024-25, Bangladesh had received around $3.0 billion as budget support from the development partners.

Dr. Zahid Hussain, a former lead economist at the World Bank's Dhaka office, told The Financial Express that getting budget-support credit from development partners in many aspects depends on government's "comfort position" with the IMF, which remains absent for a long.

"We need to cut budgetary spending as much as possible to face the crisis," he says, adding that containing spending will help lower import and thus the requirement of foreign currency will lessen.

He suggests maintaining exchange-rate flexibility and ensuring that no gap remains between domestic and international energy prices.

Reinstating the package-VAT system to bring marginal businesses under the tax net is now under active consideration of the government, as compliance with the existing value-added-tax regime remains weak, sources say.

Officials at the National Board of Revenue (NBR) say the move is being made targeting the small and informal businesses that struggle to maintain proper accounts under the current VAT framework.

Package VAT is a fixed monthly amount paid by businesses, typically through their trade associations. The system was abolished in June 2019 following the introduction of the new VAT and Supplementary Duty Act and the VAT Online Project, which aimed to digitise tax collection.

However, NBR officials now acknowledge that bringing businesses in growth centres and retail hubs onto the VAT net has proven difficult, leading to significant revenue losses from the large informal sector.

The existing system, too, has been criticised for giving "discretionary powers" to field-level VAT officials to assess sales and determine payable value-added tax-- often resulting in harassment and allegations of corruption.

"We are overhauling the VAT law to make compliance easier for small and medium enterprises," NBR Chairman Abdur Rahman Khan told members of the Economic Reporters Forum (ERF) at a pre-budget meeting with Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury. Personalfinance advice

"We have not yet been able to effectively implement the standard 15-percent VAT rate. Now we are compiling data on marginal and new SMEs to bring them under a fixed VAT system," he says.

The VAT base remains significantly smaller than the income-tax base, with only about 0.8 million VAT-registered entities compared to 12.8 million income taxpayers, Mr Khan points out the mismatch.

Business leaders have welcomed the proposed move but urged caution in setting the VAT amount.

Md Zahirul Haque Bhuiya, Secretary-General of the Bangladesh Dokan Malik Samity, also acknowledges that the government currently earns little revenue from sectors previously covered under package VAT. Bangladeshtravel guideBangladesh market analysis

However, he warns that excessive rates could discourage compliance.

"When the package VAT was increased sharply -- from Tk 4,200 to Tk 28,000 annually -- many small businesses dropped out of the system," he says .

Efforts to digitise VAT collection through Electronic Cash Registers (ECR) and the Electronic Fiscal Device Management System (EFDMS) have also failed to significantly improve revenue mobilisation from small businesses, he adds.

NBR data show that package -VAT collection had declined steadily before its abolition.

Revenue stood at Tk 23.81 billion in the fiscal year 2015-16 but dropped to Tk 18.91 billion in FY2016-17 after the rate was doubled. Collection had reached a rock-bottom Tk 11.75 billion until February of FY2018-19.

Under the previous system, VAT was fixed based on business location. Annual rates were set at Tk 28,000 for Dhaka and Chattogram city corporations, Tk 20,000 for other city corporations, Tk 14,000 for district towns, and Tk 7,000 for other areas.

Earlier rates ranged between Tk 3,600 and Tk 14,000 before being doubled in FY2016-17.

Business owners allege that corruption among field-level officials also contributed to the decline in compliance.

Solaiman Parsee, a trader in Old Dhaka, says many businesses were willing to pay VAT but were "discouraged by officials seeking bribes".

"A section of VAT inspectors often persuades traders not to pay the official amount and instead demands informal payments," he says about the deprivation of state exchequer by such taxmen who line their own pockets.

He argues that the fixed VAT is not burdensome, noting that the highest annual rate translates to around Tk 76.71 per day.

He also suggests making Business Identification Number (BIN) mandatory to prevent misuse of the system.

However, some experts would like to dislike the reintroduction of package VAT over again.

Dr Abdur Rouf, chairman of the VAT Forum, says the government should prioritise helping small businesses grow instead of imposing fixed taxes.

He also recommends scrapping the turnover tax, arguing that it generates minimal revenue while adding to compliance burdens.

He opines that rather than introducing package VAT, "it shall be much expedient to remove the existing Turnover Tax since collection of TT is less than one -core taka annually, a very insignificant amount".

"Then a good number of SMEs shall go beyond VAT net but government will lose nothing."

He further suggests reduction in trade VAT to 3-5 per cent and abolition of Advance Tax at import stage which is trade VAT in other words.

He thinks introduction of package VAT will seriously undermine the objective of standard VAT and give rise to manifold complications at the field level without any significant impact on VAT collection.

Bangladesh’s macroeconomic outlook is fragile as it faces three concurrent adverse external headwinds, including the Middle East crisis and the country’s impending graduation from the least developed country (LDC) category, said the Policy Research Institute (PRI) of Bangladesh yesterday.

Presenting the institute’s Monthly Macroeconomic Insights at its Dhaka office, Principal Economist Ashikur Rahman said uncertainty around US tariff policies is another factor casting a shadow over the economy’s prospects for a faster recovery.

“These shocks are feeding through energy prices, weakened trade flows, and supply chain disruptions, with broad economy-wide implications,” he said.

At the same time, pressure is building on the balance of payments amid weaker exports and higher energy costs, with limited policy buffers heightening overall vulnerability amid the US-Israel war on Iran.

Rahman noted that around 31 percent of Bangladesh’s energy imports originate from the Middle East, largely transiting the Strait of Hormuz. A study by Zero Carbon Analytics found that severe price shocks could raise the country’s energy bill by 40 percent to $16-$17 billion in the ongoing fiscal year 2025-26 (FY26).

The PRI economist noted that Bangladesh has seen a fragile recovery over the 18 months to February 2026, with reserves rising from about $18 billion to $30 billion, inflation easing to 8-9 percent, and deposit growth strengthening.

“Yet, this recovery was underpinned by core vulnerabilities,” said Rahman, noting growth slowed to 3 percent in the second quarter of FY26, the weakest since Covid. Non-performing loans stand at around 30 percent, dampening private credit growth to 6 percent, while limited fiscal space is pushing the government toward costly bank borrowing.

Against this backdrop, Rahman warned that rolling back reforms now would be self-defeating. “If we step back from economic reforms at this stage, it would be an economically suicidal decision. It must be treated as a national economic imperative.”

The reforms, he stressed, should not be framed as conditions set by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). “These are essential for strengthening our own economy and ensuring long-term growth.”

ICC Bangladesh President Mahbubur Rahman, speaking as the chief guest, said persistent uncertainty is making it harder for businesses to plan.

He pointed to a disconnect between policy direction and business expectations as a drag on private investment — and, by extension, on foreign direct investment. “In Bangladesh, politics and business often operate in parallel rather than in coordination. In reality, they should be deeply interconnected. Government, businesses, and investors are part of the same ecosystem.”

Besides, he said weak domestic investment is also constraining foreign direct investment inflows. “Local investment is not picking up, and naturally that raises a question: how will foreign direct investment come if domestic investors themselves are hesitant? Even machinery imports are declining because investors lack confidence.”

Uncertainty over energy supply and financial sector risks are key concerns, he said. “There is deep uncertainty among investors about whether they will get gas or electricity tomorrow. This lack of predictability is holding back decisions.

“On top of that, fears of becoming loan defaulters and difficulties in accessing finance are further increasing risk perception.”

Khondokar Shakhawat Ali, a visiting research fellow at the BRAC Institute of Governance and Development at BRAC University, stressed that economic stability requires structural reforms rather than short-term fixes.

He also pointed to the close nexus between political actors, bureaucrats, and sections of the private sector, saying, “It has blurred lines of responsibility and made reform more urgent.”

With Bangladesh facing both internal and external shocks, he cautioned that without prudent fiscal management, the country risks sliding into a deeper economic crisis.

Meanwhile, highlighting rising external risks, PRI Chairman Zaidi Sattar said geopolitical tensions, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, are posing systemic risks to global supply chains and fertiliser trade.

“Rising food, fuel, and fertiliser prices are pushing up import costs and intensifying inflationary pressures,” he said.

On Bangladesh’s LDC graduation, he said preparedness remains limited due to gaps in export diversification and competitiveness.

He also noted slow reform progress, stressing that “comprehensive tax reform is essential to strengthen domestic resource mobilisation.”

Former National Board of Revenue (NBR) chairman Muhammad Abdul Mazid said revenue reform is essential for economic stability, warning that delays will deepen fiscal risks.

“We must stop thinking that reforms are imposed from outside; these are reforms we need for our own survival,” he said, adding that continued failure to meet revenue targets is pushing the government into a cycle of borrowing that weakens the financial system.

“You cannot fix the economy without fixing the revenue system. This is where the foundation lies,” he said, noting that while reforms take time, postponing them will only raise long-term costs.

“If the economic ‘bleeding’ continues and we fail to act, recovery will become extremely difficult,” he added.

Top business leaders have urged the market regulator to be flexible on the use of initial public offering (IPO) funds for loan repayment, including allowing repayment of rescheduled loans amid a challenging business climate.

They made the request at a meeting organised by the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) at its Dhaka office yesterday to discuss the use of IPO proceeds.

Syed Nasim Manzur, managing director of Apex Footwear Limited, said many countries, including neighbouring ones, do not impose restrictions on the use of IPO funds for loan repayment.

Considering global standards, the scope for using IPO proceeds to repay loans could be expanded, he added.

In 2025, the regulator introduced the Public Offer of Equity Securities Rules, 2025. Under the new rules, companies may use up to 30 percent of IPO proceeds for debt repayment or investment, subject to conditions.

For loan repayment, the borrowing must have been used for a company project, business, machinery, renovation or expansion, and an auditor report must confirm proper utilisation of the funds.

The loans being repaid cannot be classified or rescheduled. In other words, they must not be overdue or deferred because of repayment problems.

These provisions are stricter than those under the 2015 rules, which allowed up to one-third of IPO funds to be used for debt repayment or working capital without linking the loans to specific projects or imposing conditions on their classification status.

Riad Mahmud, president of the Bangladesh Association of Publicly Listed Companies, said even well-performing companies may incur losses because of global crises and economic challenges, and may have rescheduled loans.

It is not sufficient to follow strict policies based only on ideal situations; flexibility is also necessary considering real-world circumstances, he said.

Taking into account economic conditions and global crises, he called for allowing the repayment of rescheduled loans using IPO proceeds.

Mominul Islam, chairman of the Dhaka Stock Exchange, also spoke in favour of allowing IPO funds to be used for loan repayment.

Khondoker Rashed Maqsood, chairman of the BSEC, thanked stakeholders for their opinions and proposals. He said the regulator would evaluate their views and recommendations, adding that one of its key mandates is to protect investor interests in the capital market.

He said, “The commission will ensure overall market development while safeguarding investor interests.”

Maqsood also said efforts are ongoing to bring fundamentally strong companies to the capital market.

Tapan Chowdhury, chairman of the Central Depository Bangladesh Limited and managing director of Square Group, said regulators must assess whether IPO funds are used properly and whether they genuinely benefit the company or project.

He noted that many large and reputed groups in the country have highly ambitious projects, and merely relying on the group’s reputation should not justify using IPO proceeds to repay loans for such projects.

Abdul Hai Sarker, chairman of the Bangladesh Association of Banks, said a strong and developed capital market is an effective solution for maintaining competitiveness in the global market and ensuring economic growth.

He called for the proper development and expansion of the market.

Mashrur Arefin, chairman of the Association of Bankers Bangladesh, said companies should have an opportunity to restructure capital by repaying loans taken for productive or expansion purposes using IPO funds.

Considering the country’s economic conditions and various crises, he said loans that have not been rescheduled more than twice could be allowed under such provisions, while maintaining appropriate control mechanisms.

Kamran T Rahman, president of the Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Dhaka, said, “In the country, short-term deposits are being used to finance long-term investments. This practice should be discouraged, and long-term financing should be ensured through the capital market. To achieve this, policy and regulatory alignment are necessary.”

AKM Habibur Rahman, chairman of the Chittagong Stock Exchange, Saiful Islam, president of the DSE Brokers Association of Bangladesh, and senior BSEC officials also attended the meeting.

When the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) database on April 14, one data point quickly made its way through financial markets and newsrooms.

Bangladesh is projected to record a higher gross domestic product per capita than India in 2026, measured in current US dollars. The forecast puts Bangladesh at $2,911 per person against India at $2,812. The difference is small in absolute terms, but its symbolism is significant.

India’s economy, valued at $3,916 billion in 2025, is roughly eight times the size of Bangladesh’s $458 billion. It is also one of the most closely watched growth stories in the world. Yet on this narrow measure, the smaller neighbour appears set to edge ahead.

The reaction in India was swift. Kaushik Basu, former chief economist of the World Bank, described the development as "shocking". Indian commentators debated whether the figure reflected a deeper structural divergence or merely a statistical quirk.

The answer, as is so often the case with economic data, is: both.

Measured in current dollars, Bangladesh led India in per capita income for seven years from 2018.

India moved ahead in 2025 after the Bangladeshi taka weakened sharply. This is not without precedent.

Bangladesh was also ahead of India in per capita GDP between 1989 and 2002.

India then pulled in front for around 15 years before slipping below Bangladesh in 2018.

The rupee's own depreciation against the dollar in the subsequent period then swung the comparison back.

According to the latest projections, Bangladesh is set to move ahead in 2026 by roughly $100 per person.

The IMF expects India to regain the lead in 2027 and to remain ahead at least until 2031.

To understand why this measure is so volatile, consider the arithmetic.

GDP per capita in current dollars is calculated by converting each country's output into US dollars at the prevailing exchange rate.

When a currency depreciates — as both the taka and the rupee have done in recent years, though at different speeds — it compresses the dollar value of output regardless of how productive the underlying economy has become.

The crossing of the two lines in 2026, seen on any given screen, tells us something real: that exchange-rate dynamics now place the two economies' dollar incomes within touching distance of each other. It does not, on its own, tell us which population is better off.

The second measure complicates the picture considerably. The IMF also publishes GDP per capita adjusted for purchasing power parity (PPP), which strips out exchange-rate movements and instead converts output into a common "international dollar" based on what each currency can actually buy domestically.

On this basis, India leads Bangladesh by a wide margin — and always has in the modern era.

In 2025, India's PPP-adjusted GDP per capita stands at $11,789 — some 15 percent above Bangladesh's $10,271.

By 2031, the IMF projects the gap will widen to nearly 24 percent, with India reaching $18,485 against Bangladesh's $14,857.

Nearly 1.6 crore people in Bangladesh faced high levels of acute food insecurity in 2025, placing the country among the top ten nations with the largest number of people struggling to secure enough food, according to the latest Global Report on Food Crises.

The 2026 report, published by an alliance of UN agencies, the European Union and other partners, said that food conditions in those ten worst-affected countries are unlikely to improve this year.

Together, including Afghanistan, Myanmar and Pakistan, they accounted for two-thirds of the 26.6 crore people worldwide who experienced acute food insecurity last year.

The other countries on the list are the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Nigeria, South Sudan, Sudan, the Syrian Arab Republic and Yemen.

The report said chronic economic weakness continues to erode resilience at both household and national levels.

"Half of the world's poorest people live in five countries, three of which -- Bangladesh, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Nigeria -- are in protracted food crises," it said.

Acute food insecurity occurs when one or more dimensions of food security, including availability, access, utilisation and stability, are disrupted to a degree that threatens lives or livelihoods.

Despite the scale of the challenge, Bangladesh recorded progress. The number of people facing acute food insecurity fell by 32 percent in 2025 compared with the previous year, with no major natural disasters reported.

The report, however, highlighted worsening conditions among forcibly displaced Myanmar nationals in two districts, amid a fresh influx of Rohingya refugees, flooding and cuts to humanitarian assistance.

Bangladesh is also listed among countries facing a moderate nutrition crisis, alongside Niger, parts of Nigeria and Sudan, and the Syrian Arab Republic, even as overall food security indicators improved.

Qu Dongyu, director-general of the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), said acute food insecurity had become structural rather than temporary. "Acute food insecurity today is not just widespread -- it is also persistent and recurring.”

Conflict remained the primary driver, accounting for more than half of all people facing severe hunger. More than 39 million people in 32 countries faced emergency levels of food insecurity, while the number experiencing catastrophic hunger had risen ninefold since 2016.

Children bore a heavy toll. In 2025, 35.5 million children were acutely malnourished, including nearly 10 million suffering from severe acute malnutrition.

Ricardo Pires, spokesperson for the UN Children's Fund (Unicef), warned that children with severe wasting faced heightened mortality risk, as weakened immune systems left them vulnerable to ordinarily non-fatal illnesses.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres, writing in the foreword, called for scaled-up investment in aid and an end to the conflicts driving the crisis.

The report also states that the outlook for 2026 remains bleak. Ongoing conflict, climate shocks, economic instability and Middle East-linked supply chain disruptions are expected to sustain critical food insecurity levels across multiple countries.

US consumer sentiment fell to a record ​low in April as households shrugged off a ceasefire in the war with Iran, remaining focused on the inflation ‌fallout from the conflict.

The University of Michigan's Surveys of Consumers said its Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to a final reading of 49.8 this month, an all-time low. The reading was a slight improvement, however, from the 47.6 reported earlier in the month.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index at 48.0. It was at 53.3 ​in March. The deterioration in sentiment was across political party affiliation, and among consumers with investments in the stock market.

The Iran war ​has disrupted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, boosting the price of oil, and ultimately the cost of gasoline ⁠and diesel. Prices for other commodities, including fertilizers, petrochemicals and aluminum, which will soon impact consumers, have also surged.

Tehran effectively closed the strait ​after the start of the war on February 28. President Donald Trump this week indefinitely extended the ceasefire with Iran, though a US Navy blockade ​of Iranian ports remained in effect.

"The Iran conflict appears to influence consumer views primarily through shocks to gasoline and potentially other prices," said Joanne Hsu, the director of the Surveys of Consumers. "In contrast, military and diplomatic developments that do not lift supply constraints or lower energy prices are unlikely to buoy consumers."

GASOLINE AND DIESEL ​PRICES INCREASE

The national average retail gasoline price has hovered above $4 a gallon this month, with diesel well above $5 a gallon, data from the US ​Energy Information Administration showed.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll on Friday showed a clear majority of Americans blamed Trump for surging gasoline prices, which are weighing on his Republican Party ahead ‌of November's ⁠congressional midterm elections.

Expensive diesel is likely to raise prices of goods transported by road. Economists said while the correlation between consumer sentiment and spending was weak, they expected households, especially lower-income groups, to scale back on consumption.

"We expect the hit to real disposable income growth from higher gas prices will slow consumption growth," said Grace Zwemmer, a US economist at Oxford Economics. "The impact will be mostly felt by low- and middle-income households, ​since a larger share of their ​overall spending goes toward gasoline."

The ⁠survey's measure of consumer expectations for inflation over the next year jumped to 4.7 percent this month from 3.8 percent in March. April's reading exceeded levels that prevailed in 2024 and remained well above the 2.3 percent-3.0 percent range seen ​in the two years before the COVID-19 pandemic.

Consumers' expectations for inflation over the next five years climbed ​to 3.5 percent from 3.2 percent ⁠last month.

Higher inflation expectations added to a survey from S&P Global on Thursday showing a measure of prices charged by businesses for their goods and services jumped in April to the highest level in nearly four years in strengthening financial market expectations that the Federal Reserve would probably not cut ⁠interest rates ​this year.

"More pain will come as higher transportation costs are passed along for food, ​appliances, toys and every other item that travels on a ship, car or plane," said Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union. "Sentiment won't improve until the Strait of ​Hormuz is open and there is a permanent end to the conflict."

Citing three major economic challenges, the government has prepared its position paper ahead of a United Nations hearing on Bangladesh’s request to defer its graduation from the least developed country (LDC) category.

In a virtual meeting of the United Nations Committee for Development Policy (UNCDP) on April 29, Bangladesh will seek a three-year deferral of its scheduled graduation in November this year.

Dhaka plans to highlight a serious gap in preparedness, incomplete core reforms and the economic fallout from the US-Israel war on Iran as key reasons for postponement.

In addition, Bangladesh will raise concerns over vulnerabilities in the financial sector, weaknesses in the banking system, an export slowdown due to volatile global supply chains, high interest rates and an uncertain business and investment climate, said Md Abdur Rahim Khan, additional secretary to the commerce ministry.

Khan, who is also in charge of the commerce secretary, told The Daily Star over the phone that Bangladesh’s case for deferment has strengthened after Nepal, another South Asian LDC set to graduate, also applied to the UN for a three-year extension.

Bangladesh, Nepal and Lao PDR are scheduled to graduate from LDC status on November 24 this year. However, Bangladesh and Nepal have now sought to delay the transition until 2029, citing domestic and external economic pressures.

Earlier on February 19, the newly elected government sent a letter to Jose Antonio Ocampo, chair of the UNCDP, requesting that the preparatory period be extended until November 24, 2029, mentioning that more time is needed to ensure readiness.

Following Bangladesh’s request, the UNCDP discussed the issue at its annual meeting in February and agreed on a process to assess the proposal.

The UNCDP has now called a public hearing on Bangladesh’s request on April 29. After the hearing, the committee will submit its recommendations to the United Nations Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC) in June.

ECOSOC will then forward its assessment to the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA), which is scheduled to meet in September. The final decision on the deferment will be taken through a vote at the UNGA.

A UN assessment report last month said Bangladesh still faces serious gaps in its readiness for graduation, as its economy continues to be affected by both domestic and international shocks, including the US-Israel war on Iran.

The report highlighted a series of disruptions between 2017 and 2026, including climate vulnerability, the Rohingya crisis, a prolonged macroeconomic slowdown that predated the regime change, the Covid-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine war, inflation, and pressure on the balance of payments.

It also noted that while Bangladesh meets all three criteria for graduation, significant risks persist, including the loss of trade preferences, fiscal and financial vulnerabilities and weak institutional coordination.

The report stressed the need for urgent reforms, stronger implementation capacity, adequate policy space and a whole-of-society approach to ensure a smooth and sustainable transition.

It added that a difficult political changeover and prolonged macroeconomic stress have eroded socio-economic gains, increasing risks linked to graduation.

Rising import costs for fossil fuels have created operational constraints, with gas shortages worsening due to the Middle East conflict, the report said. Economic growth slowed from 7.1 percent in FY22 to 3.5 percent in FY25, weakening momentum ahead of graduation.

Inflation has outpaced wages, pushing millions into hardship and vulnerability.

Private investment has also weakened, with capital machinery imports falling from $5.1 billion to $2.8 billion during the 2019-2024 period. The labour market has also come under pressure, with nearly 1.9 million jobs lost between 2023 and 2024, disproportionately affecting women.

The Bank Resolution Act-2026, passed with new provisions added overnight, is effectively rehabilitating bank looters and putting the entire banking sector at risk, economic experts, academics, and activists said yesterday.

Clause 18(a) of the law could allow those who previously looted the sector in a planned manner to regain ownership, the speakers warned at a roundtable organised by Voice for Reform at the BDBL building in Karwan Bazar, Dhaka.

Badiul Alam Majumdar, secretary of Shushashoner Jonno Nagorik (Shujan), noted that many of those who looted the sector are yet to be brought to justice.

He said all masterminds behind the takeover of Islami Bank Bangladesh, including S Alam, should be held accountable.

He outlined three steps needed to put the banking sector on a firm footing. First, identifying and ensuring exemplary punishment for perpetrators of banking fraud. Second, implementing systemic reforms such as cashless transactions to prevent recurrence. Lastly, completing institutional reforms, including making Bangladesh Bank an independent constitutional body.

AKM Waresul Karim, dean of the School of Business and Economics at North South University, said the government had resorted to “very low-grade tactics” over the proposed ordinance.

He criticised the Bank Resolution Act as one of its provisions allows shareholders who held ownership immediately before a bank was placed under resolution to apply for reinstatement.

He said the provision blocks the return of long-standing institutional owners like Kuwait Finance House while opening the door for those who acquired ownership by creating “pressure through the DGFI” or through other unethical means.

Toufic Ahmad Choudhury, former director general of the Bangladesh Institute of Bank Management (BIBM), called for bringing willful defaulters to book, saying that no resolution measures would yield results unless those responsible for the current crisis are punished.

He also cautioned that rescheduled loans should not have their default status changed until fully repaid – a rule routinely flouted as elections approach, when defaulters reschedule debts.

“Through this process, they remove themselves from the list of defaulters and become ‘regular’ borrowers. Subsequently, they take the opportunity to secure hundreds of crores of taka in additional loans from the same banks,” he said.

Shawkat Hossain Masum, head of online at Prothom Alo, said it was inevitable that some banks in the country would reach the point of insolvency.

He stated that in November 2022, the central bank claimed that there were no problems in the banking sector, even though the real situation was more or less known to everyone. “It was not that Bangladesh Bank was unaware; rather, it was either helpless in the face of politicisation, complicit in it, or both.”

He claimed that the interim government opted for merging troubled banks as “no government wants to bear the stigma” of closing banks.

Considering various realities, he said merging two weak banks and making the initiative successful is already very difficult. “Expecting five weak banks to merge and succeed together is a very remote aspiration.”

Meanwhile, Professor Mushtaq Khan of SOAS University of London said the interim government should have nationalised or confiscated assets of individuals involved in bank looting.

“Failing to do so was a major mistake,” he said, noting that the manner of the looting makes recovery through collateral seizure difficult.

Sarwar Tusher, a joint convener of the National Citizen Party (NCP), accused the current BNP-led government of setting “extreme examples of politicisation” in the economy within two months of taking office.

Criticising BB Governor Md Mostaqur Rahman, the NCP leader said the governor was a “politically affiliated individual” who reportedly has “past links with S Alam”.

He went on to allege that several ministers of the new government have connections with the controversial business group, warning that a major crisis in the banking sector, similar to that in the energy sector, may be imminent.

Shams Mahmud, former president of the Dhaka Chamber of Commerce & Industry, said Islami Bank was captured through the stock market.

Instead of direct acquisition as entrepreneurs, the bank’s shares were quietly purchased through various anonymous groups and later transferred to a specific group, he added.

“Even if the front door is closed through banking laws, such looting cannot be stopped if the back door, like the stock market, remains open,” said Mahmud.

Asif Khan, president of CFA Society Bangladesh, suggested issuing long-term bonds to depositors as an immediate measure to heal the deep wounds in the banking sector.

He said that while small depositors could be fully repaid, larger depositors might need to accept some “haircut,” or partial losses.

Bangladesh’s mobile and broadband internet services rank among the worst in the world despite a large subscriber base, and a connectivity-led reform plan is being prepared to address the challenge, Rehan Asad, the prime minister’s adviser on telecom and ICT, said yesterday.

Speaking at a seminar titled “New Telecom Policy: Expectations of Entrepreneurs”, organised by the Telecom and Technology Reporters Network Bangladesh, he said the government sees better connectivity as the key to solving long-standing structural problems in the sector.

“Nothing is more important than connectivity for this government. And that connectivity means both mobile and broadband services. It is not either-or -- it is both,” he said.

Asad said Bangladesh is among the top 10 countries by mobile subscriptions, but service quality remains very poor.

“Even in South Asia, Nepal and Bhutan are ahead of us,” he said.

He added that broadband services are also weak. “In broadband, we are in an equally bad or worse position -- 141st out of 153 countries in terms of service quality,” he said.

“These are not my findings. They come from global reports by GSMA and the International Telecommunication Union,” he added.

He said the government plans to fix these problems by rapidly expanding mobile and broadband infrastructure.

“We want to connect 90 percent of the population with 5G and provide 100 Mbps internet to 90 percent of users,” he said.

He said the goal is to ensure consistent internet service across both urban and rural areas, so users no longer face uncertainty in accessing basic connectivity.

The second priority is to build a unified digital ecosystem through a nationwide digital identity system.

He explained that each citizen will receive a digital ID linked to a digital wallet that can connect with banking and mobile financial services.

The government is studying global models such as Singapore’s Singpass and Estonia’s digital system, with plans to begin rollout within the next 12 to 18 months.

The third priority is to turn Bangladesh into an AI-enabled economy, he said, adding that artificial intelligence will be introduced in education and industry.

The fourth priority is reforming the telecom tax system.

“When someone recharges Tk 100, they receive only Tk 62 worth of service. The remaining Tk 38 goes to the government,” he said.

“We want to examine the whole value chain so that a person can receive Tk 80 to Tk 90 worth of service.”

He added that Bangladesh is the third-largest collector of telecom taxes globally, which also affects affordability, including access to smartphones.

Asad said the reforms will require coordination between industry players and government agencies, and that discussions with stakeholders are already underway.

Not all problems will be solved immediately, he said, adding that the current work marks the start of a longer reform process.

Sumon Ahmed Sabir, deputy managing director of Fiber@Home, said at the event that policies and guidelines enacted by the interim government unfairly allowed foreign entities to obtain licences across multiple layers.

“The cross-layer empowerment of foreign entities could ultimately lead to ‘super-dominance’ in mobile infrastructure by one or two companies,” he said.

He also warned of risks to national security and data governance.

Some representatives of local companies at the event also alleged that the Bangladesh Telecommunication Regulatory Commission (BTRC) formulated policies and guidelines without adequate consultation with industry stakeholders.

Md Emdad Ul Bari, chairman of the BTRC, stated that their claims were unfounded.

BTRC had conducted extensive consultations with industry players, academia, and government bodies during the policy formulation process, he said.

Bari added that the primary objective of the regulator was to ensure that the policies serve the industry as a whole.

He also noted that the guidelines and policies are currently being reviewed again, in consultation with the newly elected government.

The Ministry of Finance has earmarked Tk 1.17 trillion, or 39 per cent of the proposed Tk 3.0-trillion Annual Development Programme (ADP), for the next fiscal year, as block and special allocations across various sectors.Banking sector news

The remaining Tk 1.83 trillion, or 61 per cent of the ADP, is set to be allocated to ongoing projects under different ministries and divisions, according to sources at the Ministry of Planning.

Officials said the Finance Division on Tuesday sent the final ministry-wise expenditure ceilings for ADP allocations for the next fiscal year to the Programming Division of the Planning Commission.

The allocations will be finalised after distribution among projects before being placed at a meeting of the National Economic Council (NEC) for approval.

A review shows that more than Tk 1.07 trillion of the proposed allocation has been kept as block allocation to facilitate approval of new projects. In addition, Tk 97.98 billion has been set aside to meet special needs of local government bodies.

Around 80 per cent of the proposed allocations for several ministries and divisions -- including the Medical Education and Family Welfare Division, Health Services Division, and the Ministry of Primary and Mass Education -- has been kept as block allocation.

Experts and economists say several ministries and divisions often fail to utilise even their project-specific allocations, raising concerns that block allocations may remain underutilised and merely inflate the size of the ADP.

The Local Government Division has proposed the highest allocation in the proposed ADP at Tk 362.28 billion, reflecting continued priority on local infrastructure and service delivery.

It is followed by the Road Transport and Highways Division with Tk 310.65 billion, underscoring strong emphasis on transport connectivity.

The Health Services Division ranks third with Tk 268.08 billion, while Tk 213.48 billion has been proposed for the Ministry of Primary and Mass Education.

The Secondary and Higher Education Division has been allocated Tk 208.35 billion, indicating sustained focus on human capital development.

In the energy sector, the Power Division has been earmarked Tk 192.86 billion, while the Science and Technology Division will receive Tk 173.16 billion. The shipping sector has received the lowest allocation among the listed divisions at Tk 109.69 billion.

Overall, the allocation pattern highlights continued priority on infrastructure, energy and social sectors.

In terms of block allocation, the Health Services Division tops the list with Tk 208.0 billion, accounting for 77.59 per cent of its total allocation, followed by the Ministry of Primary and Mass Education with Tk 162.99 billion.

Secondary and Higher Education has received Tk 115.0 billion, representing 55.19 per cent of its total allocation, while the Medical Education and Family Welfare Division shows the highest reliance on block allocation at Tk 68.0 billion, or 80.52 per cent.

In other key sectors, the Technical and Madrasha Education Division has received Tk 30.79 billion in block allocation, more than half of its proposed allocation, while agriculture shows a relatively lower share at Tk 17.0 billion, or 25.99 per cent.

Economist Dr Mustafa K Mujeri, former director general of the Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS), said several ministries -- particularly in health and education -- are unable to utilise even their project-based allocations effectively.Bangladesh market report

"In this context, it is questionable what role block allocations would play for such ministries," he said, raising concerns over their efficiency and absorption capacity.

"Utilisation of block allocations depends on approval of new projects, which is very difficult," he added,

warning that such allocations may only serve to expand the size of the ADP.

Former Planning Division secretary Md Mamun Al Rashid also criticised the practice, saying block allocations are not earmarked for specific projects and may lead to inefficient spending.

"When there is no defined project or sector, such funds often end up being spent on unnecessary areas later," he said, adding that large block allocations create scope for misuse and wastage of public resources.

Sources said the ADP size for the current fiscal year was initially set at Tk 2.3 trillion but later revised to Tk 2.0 trillion.

The proposed ADP for the next fiscal year stands at Tk 3.0 trillion, with Tk 1.9 trillion expected from domestic sources and Tk 1.1 trillion from external financing.

Even though fuel supply in the country has increased, with higher allocations and improved depot dispatches easing some of the earlier pressure at filling stations, persistent gaps in supply management and uneven distribution continue to blunt the impact on the ground.

On paper, availability appears more stable, but in reality, public ordeal has not eased as expected, with long queues and persistent pressure still visible across most areas.

Agriculture-dependent regions such as Naogaon are facing an added strain from diesel shortages, with farmers often returning empty-handed as pumps run out of fuel needed for irrigation, putting them at risk of significant crop losses amid ongoing watering difficulties.

Dhaka: Queues shorten, but demand pressure remains

In the capital, fuel supply has improved, with most filling stations receiving higher volumes of petrol and octane. This has reduced extreme congestion, but queues remain visible.

At 1:30pm yesterday (22 April), the queue at Ramna Filling Station stretched from Matsya Bhaban past Shilpakala Academy to Birdem Hospital – still long, but significantly shorter than earlier weeks when it extended up to the Public Works Department.

Motorcycles were receiving Tk800-Tk1,000 worth of fuel, while cars were supplied Tk2,000 worth.

Pump owner Nazmul Haque said daily supply has increased from 18,000 litres to 22,500 litres. "From my long experience, to eliminate long waiting times at filling stations, the government will have to increase supply further," he said.

At Meghna Model Star Service in Paribagh, a steady flow of vehicles moved in and out throughout the afternoon. Assistant Manager Ahmed Rushd said supply has doubled compared to earlier levels.

"We started sales this morning with 27,000 litres of octane and 10,000 litres of petrol. More fuel will arrive again at night," he said.

However, nearby Purbal Traders had no fuel stock. Cashier Dulal said the station received 13,500 litres on 20 April but none on 21 April. Despite a 20% announced increase in octane supply, he said the benefit has not materialised due to the pump's tanker capacity limits of 13,500 litres.

Savar: Supply improves, congestion unchanged

In Savar, queues persist despite increased supply. Around 65% of stations reportedly have no petrol or octane, while operational outlets face concentrated pressure. Birulia Filling & LPG Station had only 268 litres of octane yesterday morning.

Consumers continue to feel the strain. Md Shoaib Hossain said, "I have been waiting for three hours and still haven't received fuel." Motorcyclist Sakib added, "The same long lines remain. If I get Tk300 worth of fuel after hours of waiting, how far will that take me?"

Operators say depot-level rationing prevents simultaneous distribution, shifting demand to a limited number of functioning pumps.

Around 70% of stations have diesel, but frequent load-shedding continues to disrupt supply.

At Lalon CNG & Refuelling Station, manager Ahmed said supply has remained inconsistent since the shortage began, and the promised increase in allocation has yet to arrive.

SI Chowdhury Filling Station manager Mostak Ahmed echoed the same experience, saying supply has improved in volume but remains irregular. "Earlier, we wouldn't get octane for five to six days; now it comes every three to four days in 4,500-litre batches. But the issue is consistency. Because supply is not regular and not all pumps receive fuel at the same time, pressure remains. Supply may have increased, but customer pressure is still the same," he said.

The same pattern is reflected at the association level. Bangladesh Petroleum Dealers, Distributors, Agents and Petrol Pump Owners Association convener Syed Sazzadul Karim Kabul told The Business Standard there is still no real improvement. "The lines may look shorter, but nozzles are running nonstop as customer flow continues," he said.

He added that queues alone do not capture the full picture, as oil companies continue to supply fuel in an uncoordinated way, often sending 2,000, 3,000 or 4,000 litres per station at their own discretion rather than through a uniform distribution system.

Sazzadul also noted that ongoing load-shedding is worsening diesel shortages, with rural areas facing 7-8 hours of power cuts. He warned that rising irrigation demand in the coming days is likely to put additional strain on already stretched supplies.

Sylhet: Demand surge offsets supply gains

In Sylhet, small increases in depot supply have not translated into real relief at the pump level. Dealers say what looks like an improvement on paper is not being felt in reality.

Riasad Azim Adnan, acting president of the Sylhet District Petrol Pump Owners Association, said, "The increase exists on paper rather than in practice." He noted allocations have risen from 100 litres to 120 litres, but added, "We are not actually receiving higher quantities as announced."

At the same time, demand has shot up sharply. "Earlier, my pump sold 6,000-7,000 litres of octane per day. Now it is 14,000 to 16,000 litres," he said. "We cannot fully explain this surge. It could be panic buying or even smuggling across the border."

Zubayer Ahmed Chowdhury, divisional committee president of petroleum dealers, said local production should first meet local demand. "If local demand is met, there will be no shortage," he said. He added that one extra truck every four days is being supplied, but "this is not having any meaningful impact."

Naogaon: Farmers under irrigation pressure

The fuel situation in Naogaon is hitting hardest where it matters most – agriculture. With the irrigation season underway, diesel shortages are directly affecting farming activity.

Farmer Atikul Islam said around 90% of the land in the area is agricultural. "Even after going to nearby filling stations for diesel for irrigation pumps, most of the time we do not get fuel," he said.

UNO Shaheen Mahmud said supply has not kept pace with demand. "We have sent letters, requesting increased diesel supply to agricultural areas. We hope the situation will stabilise within a week," he said.

Bogura coordination committee official and Deputy District Magistrate Md Masud Hossain confirmed that supply has increased after price adjustments, but said exact figures are not available: "I can confirm that supply has been raised."

Atithi Filling Station representative Abu Toha added, "Fuel supply has increased slightly, but it is still below current demand."

Although Expat Welfare Minister Ariful Haque Choudhury said yesterday that the situation should return to normal within two to three days, consumers remain sceptical. Truck driver Habibur Rahman, waiting in a fuel queue, said, "The situation will take time to normalise."

Pressure eases in Khulna

Unlike most other areas, field observation at Ferry Ghat intersection in Khulna, Meghna Filling Station, was seen to have a relaxed demand. Around noon, only 10-12 motorcycles were in the queue, with each receiving Tk500-Tk700 worth of petrol or octane.

Just five days earlier, hundreds of motorcycles would crowd the same station, with a cap of around Tk300 per vehicle.

Station manager Masud said supply has improved significantly. "Earlier, we received one tanker a day. Now supply has increased by nearly one and a half times," he said, adding that higher allocations across stations have reduced the need for long queues.

At the Power House intersection, the KCC Filling Station also showed lighter pressure. Motorcyclist Humayun Ahmed said, "There used to be 20-30 vehicles ahead of me. Now there is almost no queue. I can even fill a full tank these days."

A Jamuna Oil official said earlier supply disruptions had halted open-market drum sales, forcing all demand onto filling stations. "Now, limited drum supply has resumed, which has eased pressure slightly," he said, adding that further supply in the open market would gradually help stabilise the situation.

State Minister for Power, Energy and Mineral Resources Anindya Islam Amit announced yesterday that the government has secured sufficient fuel supply to meet demand in May, with preparations underway for June and July.

Stocks at the Dhaka Stock Exchange extended their gains today (22 April), with turnover crossing the Tk1,000-crore mark for the first time in two months as investors increased purchases of oversold and fundamentally strong shares.

Turnover at the premier bourse rose 13.67% to Tk1,056 crore from Tk929 crore in the previous session, marking the highest level since 17 February, when turnover stood at Tk1,222 crore.

The benchmark DSEX index gained 41 points to close at 5,299, while the blue-chip DS30 index rose 20 points to 2,005. The Shariah-based DSES index also edged up by 3 points to finish at 1,066.

Total market capitalisation increased by Tk2,587 crore to Tk6,86,184.18 crore, reflecting stronger investor participation and improved trading activity.

Market breadth remained sharply positive, as 213 issues advanced compared to 121 declining, with 57 stocks unchanged.

According to market insiders, the stock market had been maintaining a positive momentum following the election, but the ongoing Middle-East conflict interrupted that trend and created pressure throughout the month. As a result, the market moved into an oversold position, creating fresh buying opportunities for investors seeking fundamentally strong stocks at lower prices.

Declining yields on government securities encouraged a portion of funds to shift towards the stock market in search of better returns.

At the same time, investors are showing growing interest in December closing companies that are expected to declare attractive dividends. This buying interest has increased trading floor activity despite continued geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East, leading to a higher volume of share transactions in the market.

However, large investors are still closely monitoring both domestic and international economic uncertainties. Analysts warn that if the Middle-East conflict worsens further, the market could face renewed pressure. For this reason, institutional and major investors are still maintaining a cautious investment approach despite the recent recovery in market activity.

Among the top gainers, Desh Garments led with a 9.96% rise, followed by Purabi Gen Insurance 9.95% and Samata Leather Complex, up 9.92%. Besides, Bangladesh Lamps, Bangas, Rupali Bank, Agni Systems, Monno Fabrics, Anwar Galvanising, and Mir Akhter Hossain Limited were placed at the top ten gainer list.

On the losing side, Shepherd Industries suffered the biggest drop at 7.59%, followed by Nahee Aluminum down 7.52%, and ICB Employees Provident MF 1: Scheme, which fell 7.89%.

In its daily market review, EBL Securities said that the capital bourse staged a strong recovery, buoyed by improved investor sentiment following the emerging signals of a potential ceasefire extension in the Middle East conflict, prompting continued accumulation of beaten-down scrips in anticipation of improved market momentum.

Market indices tracked a firm upward trajectory from the outset of the session with predominant buying interest, while investor participation strengthened steadily as the session progressed, driving broad-based price appreciation across most of the scrips, according to the commentary.

On the sectoral front, Engineering dominated turnover with a 17.3% share, followed by Textile at 13.9% and General Insurance at 13.5%.

Most sectors ended the session on a positive note. Financial Institutions rose 2.0%, Banks gained 1.7%, and Paper advanced 1.4%, leading the gainers.

On the other hand, a few sectors saw corrections. Tannery declined 0.7%, Ceramic fell 0.7%, and Services slipped 0.6%.

Meanwhile, the Chittagong Stock Exchange also closed in positive territory today. The Selective Categories' Index gained 37.0 points, while the All Share Price Index rose 60.4 points.

Rancon Auto Industries Ltd (RAIL) has entered a strategic partnership with Japan’s Mitsubishi Corporation to manufacture vehicles in Bangladesh for sale in domestic and regional markets.

Under the agreement, Mitsubishi will take a 25 percent equity stake in Rancon Auto, which began local production of the Mitsubishi Xpander in June last year.

Announcing the joint venture at an event at Sheraton Dhaka yesterday, Rancon Holdings Group Managing Director Romo Rouf Chowdhury said the partnership would mark a major step forward for the country’s automotive sector.

Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury, State Minister for Civil Aviation M Rashiduzzaman Millat and Japanese Ambassador to Bangladesh Saida Shinichi were present at the event.

Rancon Holdings Group Managing Director Chowdhury said, “The landmark strategic alliance -- the first of its kind in the country’s automotive sector -- underscores the strength of Bangladesh-Japan trade relations.”

He added that the strategic investment is expected to enhance access to affordable and convenient vehicle financing, expand after-sales services, ensure spare parts availability, and strengthen distribution networks across the country.

“It will also facilitate the transfer of technology and knowledge to develop a highly skilled local workforce, while contributing to government revenue through VAT and taxes,” said Chowdhury, adding the company’s automobile arm has gradually built its manufacturing base since starting operations in 2017.

Rancon Auto, which focuses on multi-brand vehicle manufacturing and assembly, began with the local assembly of the Mitsubishi Outlander. It later expanded its portfolio to include the Fuso BM117, Mercedes OF1623, Proton X70, as well as trucks and pickups from JAC and GMC.

The company upgraded its factory in 2023 with a modern paint facility. The following year, it launched the locally painted and assembled Mitsubishi Xpander, which quickly gained traction, with monthly sales exceeding 100 units, making it the highest-selling brand-new vehicle in Bangladesh.

Despite this growth, Chowdhury said the country’s automobile market remains largely underdeveloped.

With one of the lowest per capita vehicle ownership rates in the region and a population of around 200 million, he said Bangladesh offers strong long-term demand potential as the middle class expands.

Against this backdrop, Rancon initiated discussions with Mitsubishi Corporation to leverage its manufacturing and distribution expertise. The talks culminated in the joint venture, under which Mitsubishi Corporation acquired a 25 percent stake in Rancon Auto Industries through direct foreign investment.

“This is a proud moment for us,” Chowdhury said, adding that the partnership reflects growing international confidence in Bangladesh’s industrial prospects.

He said it could be the first instance of direct foreign investment in four-wheel vehicle manufacturing in the country.

Chowdhury expressed hope that the move would encourage other global players to invest, helping build a stronger automotive manufacturing ecosystem capable of generating employment and eventually developing into an export hub.

He also pointed to regional examples such as Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam, India and Pakistan, which have developed established automotive industries with export capacity.

Japanese Ambassador to Bangladesh Saida Shinichi described the joint venture between Mitsubishi and Rancon as a “significant milestone”, crediting engineers, technicians and government officials for their roles in bringing the project to fruition.

He said Mitsubishi had begun training Rancon engineers in 2024, followed by the launch of Xpander assembly in June last year, calling it evidence of strong collaboration between the two sides.

The envoy also highlighted Bangladesh’s efforts to improve the investment climate, including its first Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) with Japan, signed in February, and initiatives such as the “Investment Gateway”.

He said the Mitsubishi Xpander is the only locally assembled Japanese-brand vehicle in Bangladesh, calling it the country’s first “made-in-Bangladesh” Japanese car.

He added that local assembly could support wider industrial development, including technology transfer, job creation and growth in upstream industries such as parts manufacturing.

Hiroyuki Egami, senior vice-president and division COO of Mitsubishi Corporation, reaffirmed the company’s commitment to bringing its global automotive expertise to the partnership.

In his speech, Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury described the Mitsubishi-Rancon joint venture as a “refreshing change” for an automobile sector long dependent on imported vehicles.

“Bangladesh has traditionally depended on cars imported from Japan, Europe and the United States, a pattern that had become a way of life,” he said, adding that local assembly with a global brand like Mitsubishi marks a significant turning point.

He said Rancon’s experience in the automobile market makes it a suitable partner and expressed confidence that the collaboration would grow “from strength to strength”.

The minister highlighted the venture’s wider economic impact, pointing to its potential to raise value addition, create jobs and support industrial development, particularly in light engineering.

He added that the government is planning a dedicated zone for light engineering industries to support such initiatives.

At the programme, State Minister for Civil Aviation M Rashiduzzaman Millat announced that direct flights between Dhaka and Tokyo would resume next month, restoring a key air link between Bangladesh and Japan after a prolonged suspension.

He said the resumption would strengthen connectivity, facilitate trade and business, and deepen people-to-people ties between the two countries.

“You will be happy to know that we are starting flights to Tokyo from next month,” he said, adding that the move was expected to boost bilateral engagement on multiple fronts.

Inflation is likely to remain high and reach 8.6 percent in the fiscal year 2026-27 (FY27) due to higher energy prices driven by the war in the Middle East, according to BMI, a provider of insights, data and analytics.

The firm, owned by Fitch Solutions, said inflation may remain above the Bangladesh Bank’s (BB) 6.5 percent target set in its latest monetary policy.

It added in its report on Bangladesh published on Tuesday that this is partly due to base effects from low food price inflation during FY26.

Inflation averaged 10 percent in FY25, up from 9.7 percent in the previous year. It is expected to stay high at 9 percent in FY26, according to the Asian Development Bank in its April issue of the Asian Development Outlook.

The ADB projects inflation at 8.5 percent in FY27 as external shocks ease and domestic supply conditions improve.

BMI said that as inflation is expected to remain high, the BB may keep the policy rate unchanged at 10 percent in FY27 instead of cutting it, as it had previously projected.

“Our revised forecast reflects high projected inflation, a recent decline in long-term borrowing costs, and a renewed need for International Monetary Fund (IMF) financing,” said the report.

It added that the Iran conflict would add 0.13 percentage points to headline inflation in the coming fiscal year through higher energy prices.

“Elevated inflation threatens the BB’s price stability mission, making a rate cut in FY27 difficult to justify,” it said, adding that rising energy prices have made rate cuts untenable for many central banks worldwide.

The report said surging inflation in recent years has eroded real wages in Bangladesh, particularly for industry workers, who make up 21 percent of the economy’s labour force. Although salary declines have slowed in 2025, this follows five consecutive years of falling real wages, it added.

“An uncontrolled supply-side shock to inflation will worsen this problem. This will make the BB even more cautious about cutting rates, which could cause inflation to run unchecked.”

BMI also said falling long-term borrowing costs are another reason to keep the policy rate high. The 10-year treasury yield has trended down since January 2025, even though the policy rate remains elevated.

“Over the same period, credit growth has surged, driven by higher government borrowing. Apart from fuelling inflation, looser credit could also shift financial flows towards lower-quality investments. This is likely given the fragility of Bangladesh’s banking sector,” it said.

The report also noted the government’s request for $3 billion in financial support from the IMF and the World Bank.

“The government’s spending needs are real. Aside from cushioning the impact of the Iran conflict on Bangladeshi households, Dhaka will likely have to recapitalise several banks as it reforms the financial sector,” it said.

It added that IMF support is likely to depend on the government maintaining a degree of macroeconomic stability.

“Keeping monetary policy tight when economic conditions support it would help preserve confidence among international investors in Bangladesh’s medium-term prospects,” it said.