After four consecutive sessions of gains, the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) ended lower today (27 April) as investors booked short-term profits amid cautious sentiment and ongoing market uncertainty.

Selling pressure dominated most sectors throughout the session, pushing the benchmark DSEX, along with the DS30 and Shariah-based DSES indices, into negative territory.

Market participants said the recent rally prompted many investors to lock in gains, while global developments, geopolitical tensions, and macroeconomic uncertainty also contributed to cautious trading.
The DSEX fell 16 points to close at 5,301. The DS30 index dropped 9 points to 2,018, while the DSES declined 10 points to 1,057.

Market breadth remained sharply negative, with 102 stocks advancing against 223 declining and 67 remaining unchanged. Turnover also fell 2.7% to Tk956 crore from Tk982 crore in the previous session.

In its daily market review, EBL Securities said the market reversed after recent gains as investors reshuffled portfolios amid earnings disclosures, domestic economic signals, and geopolitical developments. It added that although the market started firm and held gains mid-session, broad-based selling in the final trading hour dragged indices lower.

Sector-wise, the General Insurance sector led turnover with 16.1%, followed by Banking at 13.0% and Textile at 11.6%. Most sectors ended lower, with Ceramics declining 2.0%, while Paper and Textile both fell 1.3%. General Insurance was the only major gaining sector, rising 2.9%.

Meanwhile, the Chittagong Stock Exchange (CSE) also closed in the red. The Selective Categories' Index (CSCX) dropped 18.9 points, while the All Share Price Index (CASPI) fell 35.8 points at the close of trading.

Oil prices were up more than 1 percent on Monday as peace talks ‌between the US and Iran stalled while shipments through the Strait of Hormuz remained limited, keeping global oil supplies tight.

Brent crude futures rose $1.35, or 1.3 percent, to $106.68 a barrel by ​0453 GMT, retreating from early session gains of over $2 a barrel. ​ US West Texas Intermediate was at $95.35 a barrel, up 95 cents, or 1 percent.

Last week, Brent and WTI gained nearly 17 percent and 13 percent, respectively, ​the biggest weekly gains since the start of the war.

Hopes of reviving peace ​efforts receded during the weekend when US President Donald Trump scrapped a planned trip to Islamabad by his envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, even as Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas ​Araqchi arrived in Pakistan.

“President Trump’s recent post on Truth Social, urging to shoot ​and kill any Iranian boat laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, alongside his claims ‌of having full control over Hormuz, has continued to fuel elevated war premiums,” said Priyanka Sachdeva, analyst at Phillip Nova.

Tehran has largely closed the strait while Washington has imposed a blockade of Iran’s ports. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz ​remained limited, with ​just one oil products tanker entering the Gulf on Sunday, shipping data from Kpler showed.

Goldman Sachs raised its oil price forecasts for the fourth ​quarter to $90 a barrel for Brent crude and $83 for ​WTI, citing reduced output from the Middle East.

“The economic risks are larger than our crude base case alone suggests because of the net upside risks to oil prices, unusually high ​refined product prices, products shortages risks, and the ​unprecedented scale of the shock,” GS analysts led by Daan Struyven said in a note on Sunday.

The US has stepped in to shield the global economy from the oil crunch triggered by the Iran war by boosting exports, selectively easing sanctions and tapping strategic reserves. The conflict may be denting Washington’s standing in some quarters, but it is also cementing its transformation into the world’s dominant energy superpower.

Unlike in previous oil crises, the Organization ​of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has been left largely powerless. The near-hermetic closure of the Strait of Hormuz trapped 13 percent of global oil supplies in the Gulf and forced Gulf producers to shut in ‌around 9 million barrels per day of output, stripping the group of its most potent lever: spare production capacity.

Saudi Arabia, the world’s top crude exporter and Opec’s de facto leader, has maximized exports through its alternative pipeline route bypassing Hormuz via the Red Sea. But even that has been insufficient to offset the scale of the disruption.

Enter the United States.

With the world’s largest oil industry – surpassing Saudi Arabia and Russia in production in 2018 – and the currency underpinning the global trading system, the US has extraordinary leverage over energy markets. This power is comparable, in some ​respects, to Opec’s historic ability to recalibrate output in response to shifts in global supply and demand. And Washington hasn’t been shy about using it.

OIL FIREPOWER

US oil exports have soared in recent weeks, helping to ​temper the acute energy supply shock emanating from the Middle East, including the refined product squeeze.

Total US oil exports earlier this month hit an all-time high of 12.9 million bpd, of which refined products accounted for over 60 percent, according to Energy Information Administration data.

Seaborne US oil exports are set to climb to a record 9.6 million bpd in April, with flows to Asia nearly doubling ​from pre-war levels to 2.5 million bpd, according to data analytics firm Kpler.

This surge has helped cushion Asian economies - among the most exposed to Gulf supply losses - from even sharper price spikes.

For US producers, the Iran war has ​delivered a sizeable windfall. The value of crude and refined product exports has increased by around $32 billion compared with pre-war prices, according to ROI calculations, boosting both corporate earnings and tax receipts.

American oil firepower does not end with production. Washington agreed in March to release 172 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve in several tranches through 2027 as part of a coordinated global emergency drawdown of 400 million barrels.

The SPR stood at around 405 million barrels by April 17, down from 415 million barrels at ​the start of the war - meaning the buffer against further supply shortages remains ample.

THE SANCTIONED BARRELS

Washington has yet another tool to influence global energy supplies: economic sanctions.

Since March, the US has selectively loosened restrictions on purchases of Russian and Iranian oil. The ​Trump administration on April 17 renewed a waiver allowing countries to buy sanctioned Russian oil at sea for about a month.

The impact has been swift. Volumes of Russian oil stored on tankers fell from a record high of more than 13 ‌million barrels at the end of January to just 2.9 million barrels by April 24, as buyers swarmed back in.

By bolstering Moscow and Tehran’s revenues - even temporarily - these measures are arguably undermining broader US foreign policy goals.

The US administration has recently backtracked on part of this strategy. It did not renew a separate 30-day waiver issued on March 20 that allowed purchases of around 140 million barrels of Iranian oil held at sea and simultaneously imposed its own Hormuz blockade to squeeze Tehran’s revenues.

Sanctions will always involve a delicate balance between exacting pressure and limiting collateral damage to the global energy system. But the US is still the one calling the shots.

Taken together, these measures show how the ​US has emerged as a de facto “swing supplier” - and ​what Uncle Sam giveth, he can also taketh away.

US President Donald Trump could, in theory, impose restrictions or outright bans on some US energy exports to cool rising domestic fuel prices - an especially sensitive political issue ahead of the midterm elections in November. Such a move would almost certainly send international energy prices sharply higher.

An export ban remains unlikely, however. It would risk severe ​disruption to US oil production and refining systems that are structurally geared toward exporting surplus volumes. It would also strain relations with allies in Asia, Europe ​and Latin America who are relying heavily on the US to replace lost Middle Eastern barrels and could prompt retaliatory measures.

The US’s powers certainly are not unlimited. Unlike Opec – or its wider producer alliance including Russia known as Opec+ – the US energy industry remains largely bound by market economics. Washington cannot instruct companies to raise or cut output at will, nor can it marshal spare production capacity as Gulf producers traditionally have. In that sense, the US cannot fully replicate Opec’s role as a manager of global supply.

What it can do is respond - ​fast, and at scale. Through a combination of public policy and private market forces, Washington has eased at least some of the pain for ​consumers and revealed a level of market influence unmatched since Opec’s heyday.

The Association of Mobile Telecom Operators of Bangladesh (AMTOB) has proposed abolishing the 20% supplementary duty on mobile talk-time and data, along with other tax cuts, saying the current structure is restricting growth and digital inclusion.

The proposals were placed at a pre-budget meeting with the National Board of Revenue (NBR) in Agargaon, Dhaka, yesterday (27 April).

AMTOB said operators currently pay about 56% of gross revenue in taxes, VAT and other charges, compared to a global average of 22% and 26% in Asia-Pacific countries.

Secretary General Lt Col Mohammad Zulfiqar (Retd) said the tax burden rises further during spectrum auctions, weakening investment capacity and long-term sustainability.

The association also demanded removal of the 1% surcharge on telecom services and Tk300 VAT on SIM and e-SIM replacement, saying it discourages new users, especially low-income groups.

The body further proposed reducing corporate tax rates from 40% (listed) and 45% (non-listed) to regional levels.

In the same meeting, tobacco sector representatives proposed changes to the tax system. British American Tobacco Bangladesh (BATB) proposed replacing the ad-valorem system with a specific tax system.

Arafat Jaigirdar of BATB said, "As the current tax rate is up to 83%, including VAT, supplementary duty, and surcharge, there will be limited scope for increasing government revenue in the future. Therefore, the existing ad valorem system can be replaced with a specific tax system."

He said the change would increase revenue and reduce pressure on companies. Japan Tobacco International Bangladesh and Philip Morris Bangladesh supported the proposal.

However, Abul Khair Tobacco opposed the proposal and suggested increasing prices in the upper three tiers under the existing system, claiming it could generate an additional Tk10,000 crore annually. The tobacco sector currently contributes about Tk50,000 crore to government revenue each year.

National Board of Revenue Chairman Md Abdur Rahman Khan said cigarette prices and tax rates would be reviewed in line with South Asian standards.

The Bangladesh Steel Manufacturers Association (BSMA) urged the government to reduce income tax, customs duties and VAT on the steel sector in FY2026-27, citing pressure from rising costs, currency depreciation and global instability.

BSMA President Mohammad Jahangir Alam said the steel industry is facing a deep crisis due to depreciation of the taka, dollar shortage, high interest rates, rising utility costs and increased taxes and VAT in FY2025-26. He also cited political instability, the COVID-19 impact, the Russia-Ukraine war and the slowdown in infrastructure projects.

BSMA proposed reducing advance income tax on raw material imports to Tk500 from Tk600, cutting tax deducted at source on rod sales to 1% from 2%, reducing turnover tax to 0.5% from 1%, and allowing adjustment of advance tax.

The association said a new VAT of Tk1,800 per metric tonne has been imposed on imported raw materials despite earlier duty withdrawal. It called for the rationalisation of taxes and duties in the next budget.

NBR Chairman Md Abdur Rahman Khan said not all demands could be met due to revenue constraints, but reasonable proposals would be considered. He said HS code issues would be reviewed and import values aligned with international prices.

Multiple trade bodies, including steel, re-rolling mills, iron importers, chemical importers, paint, cosmetics, lubricants, fisheries, marine products, auto parts and electronics associations, attended the meeting.

Bangladesh Bank has verbally instructed commercial banks to lower the buying rate of US dollars further, apparently in efforts to stabilise the foreign exchange market, according to official sources.

The instruction set the banks to buy remittances from money exchange houses at a maximum rate of Tk122.85 per US dollar, a senior Bangladesh Bank official confirmed to The Business Standard yesterday.

This marks a slight reduction from the earlier instruction issued on 13 April, when banks were ordered to keep the maximum buying rate at Tk122.90 per dollar, reflecting the central bank's continued efforts to gradually bring down the dollar rate in the local market.

However, bankers and economists argue that such frequent intervention is not standard market practice. While Bangladesh Bank has already introduced a reference exchange rate framework, critics say direct verbal instructions to control rates go beyond conventional policy tools.

Several senior central bank officials, however, defended the move, saying rising fuel prices have increased the risk of inflation, forcing the monetary authority to keep the exchange rate at a level that prevents import costs from rising further.

"If the dollar rate remains high, import costs will increase, which could add pressure on inflation. That is why we are trying to maintain a stable level," one senior official said.

Dr Zahid Hussain, former lead economist at the World Bank's Dhaka office, told TBS that discussions are ongoing regarding the disbursement of International Monetary Fund loan instalments, where reform uncertainty has emerged. One of the key IMF conditions was to move toward a more market-based and stable exchange rate mechanism.

"But there are concerns that exchange rate management is not being fully implemented in line with expectations. The IMF does not favour this kind of indirect control," he said.

He further explained that central bank intervention is not unusual, but it should be done through market-based instruments such as dollar auctions.

The economist said, "So I can't understand the reason behind such intervention. Because the directive to reduce the remittance rate means that the central bank thinks the dollar price is high in the market. However, that is due to the imbalance of demand and supply, but nothing like that has happened. But even if it is, it should be allowed to happen."

The international dollar index rose by 0.68% between 28 February and 27 April this year, while Bangladesh's domestic rate increased by only 0.37%. "If anything, this suggests relative stability in supply conditions, supported by strong remittance inflows," he said, adding that import letters of credit have also declined in March while remittance flows remain robust.

Bangladesh Bank officials argue that a lower dollar rate helps importers bring in goods at lower prices, ultimately benefiting businesses and consumers.

While no Bangladesh Bank insider agreed to be named in comments to TBS on the issue, a senior central bank official noted that repeated verbal instructions to control exchange rates may not be well received by the IMF. "This is something we need to be careful about."

There is also pressure from some business groups to appreciate the local currency to reduce import costs, he said.

Despite policy debates, remittance inflows remain strong. Bangladesh Bank data shows that remittances reached $28.92 billion in the current fiscal year up to 26 April.

Market volatility was observed in recent weeks, with some private banks buying dollars at around Tk123 per dollar last week, driven partly by upcoming payment obligations from the Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation and Petrobangla.

However, rates softened slightly yesterday, with private banks reporting remittance purchase rates between Tk122.85 and Tk122.95 per dollar.

A senior central bank official said that despite sufficient dollar supply, some banks bought remittances at higher rates, which pushed the dollar price up slightly.

He added that dollar demand also increased after forward bookings rose from mid-March. In response, the central bank instructed banks in the first week of April to stop forward bookings.

Import-export activities between Bangladesh and India through the Benapole land port will remain suspended for three consecutive days due to the assembly elections in West Bengal, India.

However, despite the halt in trade operations, passport holders will be allowed to travel for emergency medical purposes, and voters from West Bengal will be permitted to enter India from Bangladesh to cast their ballots.

Moreover, perishable goods will also remain outside the purview of this restriction.

The information was disclosed in a letter issued on April 24, signed by Shilpa Gaurisaria, district magistrate and district election officer of North 24 Parganas, India, while Md Shamim Hossain, director of Benapole Port, confirmed the matter yesterday.

According to the letter, voting will take place on April 29 in 33 assembly constituencies in North 24 Parganas.

To ensure a smooth election process, the movement of people and vehicles will be restricted from 6pm on April 26 to 6am on April 30 under Section 163 of the Indian Citizen Security Code-2023.

As a result, all international land borders and entry-exit points in the district will remain closed.

During this period, passenger movement through international check posts will be limited, and normal import-export activities are expected to resume from Thursday morning, said Aminul Haque, vice-president of the Benapole Importers and Exporters Association.

Although passenger movement is restricted, Indian voters currently in Bangladesh will be able to return home to vote, said Shakhawat Hossain, officer-in-charge of Benapole Checkpost Immigration Police.

Normal movement of all passport holders will resume after 7am on April 30.

Rahat Hossain, assistant commissioner of Benapole Customs, said that although trade activities will be halted, internal operations at the customs house and port will continue as usual. If any perishable goods arrive from India, arrangements will be made for their swift clearance.

Runner Automobiles PLC saw its share price fall after a key sponsor announced plans to divest his entire stake, raising concerns among investors amid the company's ongoing transition toward electric vehicles (EVs).

Taslim Uddin Ahmed, a sponsor and former director of the company, has declared his intention to sell all 27.09 lakh shares he currently holds.

According to a regulatory filing with the Dhaka Stock Exchange today (27 April), Ahmed plans to complete the sale by 30 April through both public and block markets at the prevailing market price.

Following the announcement, Runner's share price declined by 4.66%, closing at Tk38.90.

The move comes shortly after a similar decision by major foreign investor Brummer Frontier, which on 9 April announced plans to offload 50 lakh shares from its holding of 1.83 crore shares. The simultaneous exits by a sponsor and a foreign shareholder have sparked unease among market participants.

The sell-off is notable given the company's recent strategic development. On 24 March, Runner announced a Master Supply and Manufacturing Agreement (MSMA) with BYD Auto Industry Company to explore local production of electric vehicles. While the partnership marks a significant step forward for Bangladesh's automotive sector, the company noted that the final investment size and financial impact are yet to be determined.

Financially, the company is facing mixed performance. The runner reported a net profit of Tk 2.93 crore for the first half of the current fiscal year (July–December), but posted a loss of Tk 1.41 crore in the October–December quarter.

Despite this volatility, revenue remains strong. The company recorded a 31% year-on-year increase in revenue to Tk592.18 crore in the first half, driven by solid demand in the truck, pickup, and tractor segments.#####

Beacon Pharmaceuticals PLC reported a 335% surge in net profit in the January-March quarter of FY26 compared to the same period a year earlier.

According to its price sensitive statement, the company posted earnings per share (EPS) of Tk1.22 in the third quarter of FY26, up from Tk0.28 in the corresponding quarter of the previous year.

For the first three quarters (July-March), its EPS stood at Tk5.95, marking a 59% increase compared to the same period of the previous year.

Bangladesh is facing a deepening structural revenue strain, with the National Board of Revenue (NBR) recording an average annual shortfall of nearly Tk59,000 crore over the past five fiscal years, according to the Policy Research Institute (PRI).

The observation was made by PRI Research Director Bazlul Haque Khondker while presenting findings on the need to rationalise the country's supplementary duty (SD) and value-added tax (VAT) structure at a discussion held at PRI's office in Dhaka on Saturday.

He said Bangladesh's growing dependence on high and complex indirect taxation is increasingly unsustainable for a transitioning economy.

Khondker noted that the country already imposes some of the highest indirect tax rates in the region, particularly on beverages, where the rate stands at 43.75%, compared to 40% in India and 30% in the Maldives.

He pointed to significant distortions within the tax structure, citing the wide gap between 250% tax on alcoholic beer and 55% on energy drinks. According to him, such disparities distort consumer behaviour, pushing demand toward lower-taxed products and ultimately weakening overall revenue efficiency.

The PRI also cautioned that frequent and unpredictable changes in tax policy are contributing to investor uncertainty. It said multinational companies are increasingly factoring Bangladesh's SD and VAT regime into their decisions on whether to remain in or exit the market.

To achieve the government's target of raising foreign direct investment (FDI) to 2.5% of GDP by 2030, the think tank stressed the need for what it described as "investor-grade tax certainty."

Against the backdrop of widening revenue gaps and a long-term goal of achieving a 15% tax-to-GDP ratio by 2035, PRI proposed a set of structural reforms.

These include, first, fixing the order of tax imposition by separating supplementary duty from the VAT base and applying it at a single point to prevent cascading effects.

Second, it recommended introducing specific health-based taxes, shifting away from price-based taxation toward levies determined by sugar or alcohol content, a move it said could significantly improve revenue from food and beverage products.

Third, PRI called for stronger data systems to support tax administration, including detailed, category-wise reporting of SD and VAT to enhance monitoring, enforcement, and policy design.

Most listed manufacturers faced pressure last year from high borrowing costs and weak demand, with many sectors reporting falling profits or losses.

Despite that, a small number of large companies maintained strong earnings.

Data compiled by Lion City Advisory show only four listed firms posted profits above Tk1,000 crore in 2025.

The four that cross Tk1,000cr profit mark

According to the analysis, multinational telecom operator Grameenphone recorded the highest profit among listed companies at Tk2,908 crore in 2025.

Square Pharmaceuticals ranked second with Tk2,594 crore in profit.

Power producer United Power Generation posted Tk1,097 crore in profit, while electronics and appliance maker Walton earned Tk1,095 crore.

Robi came close to the threshold, reporting a profit of Tk937 crore.

On the loss side, Bashundhara Paper Mills topped the list with a loss of Tk477 crore. Titas Gas followed with Tk450 crore, while Energypac posted a loss of Tk213 crore.

In 2024, four firms also crossed the Tk1,000 crore profit mark, again led by Grameenphone at Tk3,630 crore, followed by Square, Walton and United Power Generation.

Titas Gas was the biggest loss-maker in 2024 with Tk1,502 crore in losses. Power Grid and Desco ranked next with losses of Tk449 crore and Tk316 crore, respectively.

Bangladesh will not be able to realise its ambition of becoming a trillion-dollar economy by 2034 unless it revives investment, foreign investors and development partners said yesterday.

Without a turnaround in the investment climate, the country also risks falling short on other goals, such as sustained economic growth and job creation, said Jean Pesme, division director of the World Bank for Bangladesh and Bhutan.

At a meeting of the Foreign Investors’ Chamber of Commerce and Industry (FICCI) in Dhaka, he said attracting investment requires coordinated reforms in revenue policy, the financial sector and the wider business environment.

He said implementing only one reform in isolation would deliver limited results.

Foreign direct investment stood at just $1.6 billion in the fiscal year 2024-25, or around 0.33 percent of GDP, well below regional peers. Private investment was projected at 22 percent of GDP in FY25, the lowest level in 11 years, according to official data.

Pesme said global experience shows that tax incentives alone cannot offset a weak investment climate.

“Even where governments reduce the marginal effective tax rate and see an increase in foreign direct investment (FDI), the inflow is eight times higher when strong institutions, macroeconomic stability and rule of law are already in place,” he added.

He commented that Bangladesh’s revenue challenge lies less in tax rates and more in weak administration, governance shortcomings and extensive tax expenditures, which are almost as large as total collections.

According to the World Bank’s regional division director, the country depends heavily on tax holidays and sector-specific exemptions, especially for the ready-made garment sector. This creates distortions, opens the door to rent-seeking and increases resistance to reform, as changes inevitably produce winners and losers.

He highlighted the need to work on the investment climate and fiscal reform simultaneously so that they combine and reinforce each other.

“And when you look at the experience globally, the countries that really try to attract FDI through incentives are the ones that already have strong macro stability, rule of law, efficient administration and strong infrastructure.”

He also emphasised broadening the tax base and introducing greater uniformity by eliminating rent-seeking behaviour, reducing distortions, improving compliance and limiting incentives to game the system.

Predictability and credibility, he said, are essential.

“Improving tax administration can really bring results. We think revenue collection, as well as managing tax expenditure and services, is very important as it is about the quality of public spending.”

The results are not coming immediately, but the earlier you start, signal where you want to go, and then implement, in a systematic way, the better, he added.

Chandan Sapkota, country economist at the Asian Development Bank (ADB) resident mission in Bangladesh, said investors consistently raise concerns about taxes, especially the role of the National Board of Revenue (NBR).

“When we meet investors, everybody talks about taxes because their investment decisions are being impacted by NBR,” said Sapkota.

He said NBR often overrides investment promotion agencies. For instance, they introduce an investment facilitation programme, but in the middle of the year, NBR can issue a regulation that effectively nullifies it.

“Basically, there is no predictability of what is going to happen. So, I can see a reason why everybody says NBR,” said Sapkota.

Drawing on his experience in five countries, he said, “I think no other country has this kind of system, where you have agency that supersedes pretty much everything.”

To raise tax collection, he emphasised digitisation and stronger compliance.

The ADB economist said, “Even if you increase taxes, if the compliance regime is not tackled, your tax will not actually increase that much, but then people who are already paying taxes will be burdened more.”

He said the tax administration system must make it very difficult to avoid paying taxes. For example, it’s impossible to evade taxes in India, because everybody has a Aadhaar Card without which none can do anything.

In Bangladesh, he said, the national ID card should be linked with TIN and bank accounts to close that loop. He also suggested reducing multiple VAT rates to two or three to reduce leakages.

“The incentive mechanism, when they rationalise the taxes, should be designed in such a way that this is growth enhancing, productivity enhancing, rather than helping some sort of zombie firms to sustain operation for the sake of employment,” said Sapkota.

Fahmida Khatun, executive director of local think tank Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), said tax exemptions in Bangladesh continue indefinitely despite limited fiscal space. “If you really want to incentivize, there should be a sunset clause. But, once an exemption is in place, that goes forever,” she said.

AK Khan, chairperson of Business Initiative Leading Development (BUILD), said local investors face similar frustrations.

As a local investor, we also feel that there are a lot of constraints when we do or think of investments, which shows a huge gap between policy and practice, said Khan.

He pointed to weak coordination among ministries. NBR, the commerce ministry and other ministries often adopt separate policies on the same subject, leading to conflict and uncertainty.

And there is a serious conflict in policies that frustrate investors. He suggested running institutional reform, institutional coordination, and policy consistent and predictable.

M Masrur Reaz, chairman and chief executive of Policy Exchange Bangladesh, presented a paper at the event. He said higher corporate taxes raise the effective cost of investment and cited the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) data showing that FDI falls 3.7 percent for every 1 percent rise in the tax rate.

Bangladesh ranks 105th out of 141 countries in the Global Competitiveness Index due to weak business dynamism, poor product market conditions, low skills performance and infrastructure deficits, he said.

To build an investment-enabling fiscal framework, Reaz called for tax reform, greater efficiency in the annual development programme, institutional reform, improved budget credibility and fiscal consolidation.

Rupali Huque Chowdhury, president of FICCI, and Shams Zaman, a FICCI director, also spoke at the event.

Garment exporters yesterday urged the government to cut the source tax from 1 percent to between 0.5 and 0.65 percent, citing ongoing difficulties caused by domestic challenges and external pressures.

They also proposed keeping the reduced rate in place for the next five years.

In addition, they called for exemption from the 10 percent income tax on export incentive receipts, saying that export incentives have already been reduced as part of preparations for Bangladesh’s graduation from the least developed countries (LDC) group.

The Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA) and the Bangladesh Knitwear Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BKMEA) made these proposals in their budget recommendations for fiscal year 2026-27 (FY27), which were submitted to the National Board of Revenue (NBR) yesterday.

Both associations proposed setting the corporate tax rate for subcontracting factories at 12 percent instead of the current 25 to 30 percent, arguing that it should be aligned with existing policies where green factories pay 10 percent and non-green factories pay 12 percent.

They also said subcontracting factories, which place work orders with other factories, currently pay a 5 percent source tax on contract payments and demanded that it be reduced to 1 percent in the upcoming budget.

In addition, they proposed fixing the bond licence fee at Tk10,000 for three years, along with relaxed rules for sub-contracting and bond licence locking.

They also recommended exempting VAT and import duties on the import of man-made fibre and non-cotton yarn, saying this is necessary to expand production using man-made fibres and increase global market share.

Globally, around 75 percent of garments are made from man-made fibres, while in Bangladesh, over 70 percent of exports are cotton-based and only around 30 percent come from man-made fibres, meaning the country is missing significant opportunities.

They added that while cotton imports are already duty-free, similar tariff-free access should be extended to man-made fibre and yarn to stay competitive.

RMG UNDER PRESSURE AS EXPORTS FALL, COSTS RISE

The BGMEA, in its proposal, said the garment sector is facing an unprecedented set of challenges both at home and abroad, including global recession, geopolitical instability and tariff wars that have slowed export growth.

Internal issues such as rising costs of doing business, weak ease of doing business, and structural weaknesses are also affecting competitiveness.

Recent export data shows garment exports fell by 3.73 percent in July-February of FY26 compared to the same period of the previous fiscal year, with earnings continuously declining since August 2025.

As a result, factories are operating below full capacity, increasing fixed costs and overall production expenses.

New work orders have also slowed, with Bangladesh Bank data showing that back-to-back letters of credit (LC) openings for raw material imports fell by 6.79 percent in dollar terms during July-January of FY26.

Lower export orders, combined with reciprocal US tariffs and higher Chinese exports to Europe at competitive prices, have reduced export prices, with the average unit price of garments falling by 1.76 percent in July-February of FY26.

In the first seven months of FY26, imports of capital machinery dropped by 37.87 percent in the textile sector and 12.44 percent in the garment sector, continuing a negative trend from the previous fiscal year.

This reflects declining capacity and a weak investment climate, raising concerns about the sector’s future.

The data shows that the country’s main export-earning sector, the RMG industry, is going through a critical period, with around 400 garment factories closing over the past three years while many others remain financially weak.

At present, lending interest rates have risen to 12 to 15 percent, while energy costs have increased sharply amid ongoing shortages. Gas prices rose by 286 percent between 2017 and 2023, and electricity tariffs increased by 33 percent over the past five years.

The National Board of Revenue (NBR) plans to introduce a QR code system on packaged products sold in the market to curb value-added tax (VAT) evasion and improve tax compliance.

NBR Chairman Abdur Rahman Khan announced the plan during a pre-budget meeting at the organisation's headquarters in Agargaon today (26 April).

"At the initial stage, we plan to start with tobacco products. Later, it will be implemented for all packaged goods such as soap, shampoo, bottled water, and sugary items," he said.

He said the new system was intended to strengthen monitoring and reduce tax evasion in the retail market.

The NBR chairman also said individuals who provide information on tax evasion or misconduct would be rewarded.

"Those found evading taxes will face fines," he said.

Representatives of several business bodies, including BGMEA and BTMA, attended the meeting.

The Barapukuria coal mine yard in Dinajpur is now storing more than twice its designed capacity, with stocks continuing to rise and raising concerns over fire hazards, possible heap collapse and declining coal quality.

The situation has developed as the nearby Barapukuria Thermal Power Plant, operated by the Bangladesh Power Development Board (PDB) and the mine’s only coal buyer, has reduced consumption after two of its three units were shut down due to technical faults.

The yard, which has a storage capacity of 2.2 lakh tonnes, was holding about 5.7 lakh tonnes as of Tuesday. An additional 1 lakh tonnes is stored in the PDB’s own yard, which has a capacity of 60,000 tonnes.

The surplus is increasing daily, as the mine is producing around 3,000 tonnes of coal against a demand of only 700-750 tonnes.

Md Shah Alam, managing director of Barapukuria Coal Mining Company Limited, a subsidiary of state-owned Petrobangla, told The Daily Star over the phone that frequent fires are now occurring due to the excessive stockpile.

“A dedicated team is working around the clock to keep the fires under control,” he said.

POWER PLANT OUTPUT REDUCED

Abu Bakar Siddique, chief engineer of the Barapukuria Thermal Power Plant, said the facility has a total generation capacity of 525MW (megawatt), with Unit-1 and Unit-2 producing 125MW each, and Unit-3 producing 275MW.

He said only Unit-1 is currently in operation, supplying about 55-65MW to the national grid. Unit-3 has been shut since October 19, 2025, while Unit-2 has remained out of service since 2020 due to a mechanical fault.

“Unit-3, with a capacity of 275MW, is expected to resume operations by May this year. The process to overhaul Unit-2 is also underway,” he said.

Siddique added that when Units 1 and 3 operate together, the plant will require around 3,200 tonnes of coal per day.

“At that rate, about one lakh tonnes of coal will be used each month, and the current stockpile could be cleared in seven to eight months,” he said. “We are also working to expand the PDB’s coal yard capacity by an additional 50,000 tonnes.”

TRADING BLAMES

Officials from both the mine and the power plant have blamed each other for the growing coal stockpile.

Plant authorities say they requested a temporary suspension of coal production, while mine officials argue that output cannot be stopped due to technical limitations, safety risks and contractual obligations.

“We had asked the coal mine authorities to reduce coal extraction to help control spontaneous combustion and reduce other risks, but we received no response,” Siddique said.

Md Shah Alam rejected the suggestion of halting production. “There is no scope to stop mining once it begins, as it could increase risks, including a higher chance of spontaneous combustion,” he said.

“We are now extracting coal in two shifts instead of three,” he added.

He also said the crisis has worsened following a 2019 policy change that made the power plant the mine’s sole buyer, removing the option to sell surplus coal in the open market through tenders.

Monir Hossain Chowdhury, spokesperson for the Energy and Mineral Resources Division, said once coal is extracted, it becomes the property of the power plant.

“We do not have any mechanism to send that coal elsewhere,” he said.

He added, “It depends entirely on the plant authorities. Due to reduced power plant operations, the mine is facing difficulties as it lacks storage capacity. We are concerned about the issue, and the Power Division is working to resume production at the plant.”

Based on March global prices and the current exchange rate, the import cost of octane is Tk105.73 per litre. After the latest price hike – driven by supply constraints and rising global prices – it is being sold at Tk140 per litre at pumps.

This means consumers are paying Tk34.27 more than the import cost per litre. Of this, Tk27.57 goes to the government as import duty, VAT, development surcharge, transport costs, and margins for state-owned distributors.

When local transport costs and dealers' commissions are included, the total cost reaches Tk151.61 per litre – Tk11.61 higher than the retail price. The government counts this difference as a subsidy.

This creates a paradox: the government collects Tk27.57 per litre in taxes and charges, while also providing a subsidy of Tk11.61 per litre.

"This raises a valid question as to whether the government is truly subsidising octane," economist Selim Raihan, executive director of the South Asian Network on Economic Modeling (Sanem), told The Business Standard.

The same is true for petrol, which is usually priced Tk4 lower than octane.

However, the situation differs markedly for diesel, the most widely used fuel in public and goods transport, irrigation, inland water transport, and fishing.

Rising global prices have pushed the import cost of diesel to Tk148.06 per litre, which increases to Tk203.84 after adding duties, taxes, and operational and marketing costs. However, the government has fixed the retail price at Tk115 per litre – even after a Tk15 increase – effectively subsidising more than Tk88.84 per litre. This figure still includes over Tk55.78 (or 37%) in taxes and other costs.

Speaking to this newspaper, analysts and consumer rights groups say this "subsidy" exists only because of the fuel oil tax burden, as fuel oil remains among the major revenue sources for the government. They argue that if taxes were reduced or waived temporarily, and only distribution costs were added to the import price, octane could be sold at a much lower price than it is now, requiring no subsidy.

Major economies in the region, including India and Pakistan, slashed fuel oil taxes to lower price shocks on the people. India marginally increased the price of premium-grade oil, but kept the prices of the most-consumed diesel and petrol unchanged.

Though Pakistan raised oil prices, it exempted or slashed taxes for diesel and petrol. The country also introduced free bus services in cities, cash subsidies for bikers and farmers.

The EU is planning to cut electricity taxes and provide consumers with targeted and temporary support. The USA offers tax breaks to lessen the impact of gasoline price hikes and politicians there are calling for the federal tax to be exempted – 18.4 cents per gallon.

Price hikes in Bangladesh, effective from 19 April, were not backed by any such measures.

Maintaining existing VAT and tax rates while raising retail prices in line with international trends amounts to an "extortionist approach," where revenue generation appears to take precedence over public welfare, said Shamsul Alam, energy adviser at the Consumers Association of Bangladesh (Cab).

'No hike' means Tk2,764cr in monthly subsidy

If the government had followed the automatic pricing formula to set fuel prices in April, following the rise in international market rates after the Iran war, the price of diesel would have been Tk155.46 per litre, octane Tk148.93, and petrol Tk144.93.

Following the conditions of a loan taken from the International Monetary Fund in 2023, the government began adjusting prices monthly through an automatic system from the following year. However, the government did not increase fuel prices on 31 March.

Under the method, the current month's price is determined by the average "Platts-based" market price from the 21st of the month before last to the 20th of the following month. This formula is used to set the prices for diesel and octane, while the price of petrol is always fixed at Tk4 less than that of octane.

According to a briefing by the energy ministry prepared ahead of the latest price hike on 18 April, the government had been providing subsidies of nearly Tk45 per litre for diesel and Tk29 per litre for octane prior to the adjustment.

Energy Division estimates suggest that following the rise in international market prices after the Iran war, the government would have had to provide Tk2,764 crore in subsidies every month based on average demand if domestic prices remained unchanged. Of this amount, Tk2,452 crore would have been allocated to diesel and Tk145 crore to octane, with the remainder subsidising petrol and kerosene.

However, as a result of the government's decision to increase fuel prices on 18 April, the monthly subsidy burden will be reduced by approximately Tk800 crore. This means that even after the price hike, the government will still provide nearly Tk2,000 crore in fuel subsidies each month.

Despite the subsidy for octane being significantly lower than the vast amount spent on diesel, the Energy Division justified the steeper price increase for octane as a means of ensuring social and economic balance.

The ministry noted that diesel is directly linked to agricultural activities, the transport sector, freight movement, manufacturing, and the livelihoods of the general public. In contrast, octane consumption is relatively limited and primarily concentrated among higher-income groups.

Therefore, when adjusting prices, the Energy Division considered it a logical and policy-acceptable approach to place a comparatively lower burden on diesel while implementing a higher adjustment for octane, given the potential impact on public life and overall economic activity.

There are options

In the wake of the Iran war and the subsequent rise in fuel prices, several countries across Europe and Asia have attempted to keep prices manageable by reducing fuel duties. Pakistan, a fellow South Asian nation, has also slashed taxes on fuel. However, as Bangladesh has opted not to follow suit, consumers are forced to purchase fuel at much higher prices.

Selim Raihan said that the immediate hike in transport fares and commodity prices following the adjustment of fuel prices has had a direct impact on the general public.

He continued, "A portion of the revenue from fuel sales is transferred by the Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation (BPC) into their development fund, money essentially collected from the consumers. Temporarily suspending these transfers could have mitigated some of the pressure from the price hike.

"Similarly, while the commission rate for petrol pump owners remains unchanged, their total commission has increased significantly due to the higher sales value; a cap or adjustment could have been introduced here. Furthermore, a temporary waiver in the tax structure, similar to measures taken by neighbouring countries, could have been considered.

"In my view, by considering these three steps together – reducing taxes, pausing transfers to the BPC development fund, and implementing effective controls on commissions – the government could have achieved a more tolerable price adjustment.

"While this might have placed some pressure on revenue management, it would have lessened the direct impact on ordinary citizens. In the current situation, a transparent and balanced pricing policy is essential, prioritising consumer interests while moving towards long-term sustainable solutions."

Shamsul Alam, Cab's energy adviser, said reducing VAT and taxes on fuel is an accepted global practice to stabilise markets, cushion the impact of price spirals, and provide relief to consumers.

"Despite rising global oil price, our actual import costs remain significantly lower than what is being presented by the government," he pointed out.

At a time when the government is struggling to ensure adequate fuel supply to meet demand, such pricing policies effectively deprive citizens of their right to fair pricing, he believed.

Treating the fuel sector primarily as a profit-making entity reflects a disregard for the hardships faced by consumers, Shamsul said.

Bangladesh is not unique to global shocks, but it lags behind regional countries in managing the crisis judiciously, analysts say.

Cab Vice-President SM Nazer Hossain said the government, instead of raising fuel prices amid consumers' hardship, could have temporarily exempted duties.

"Though Bangladesh's recent fuel price change is a response to global pressures, the policy choices have raised some valid concerns," said Fahmida Khatun, executive director, Centre for Policy Dialogue.

The economist referred to the immediate effects of oil price hikes translated into increased transportation costs, hitting low- and middle-income households hardest.

Instead, she said, the government could have taken some practical steps to reduce the impact of rising fuel prices. "For example, the government could have temporarily reduced fuel taxes, restrained dealer commissions for now, and avoided tapping into the Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation development fund unless absolutely essential."

While these actions would not eliminate the price hike completely, they could have relieved the burden on ordinary people, Fahmida added.

Understandably, she said, the government's limited fiscal capacity means it cannot afford large subsidies for long. "But the adjustment could have been managed more carefully, with the burden shared more fairly across stakeholders, which would also improve public confidence."

There should be a balanced approach in light of high inflation and the hardships faced by common people, Fahmida said, suggesting that targeted support for the poor should be provided through fiscal adjustments and improved energy-sector efficiency.

How countries are responding to oil shocks

Regional economies such as India and Pakistan opted to lower fuel taxes to keep pressure on people lower. Excepting marginal increase in premium-grade fuel – Rs2 per litre, India remains among a few countries like Madagascar that have not hiked fuel prices since the Middle East war began. Pump prices of petrol and diesel in India remain at levels seen four years ago.

Rather, in March, ahead of elections in some states, India's finance ministry reduced the excise duty on petrol from Rs13 to Rs3 per litre. Similarly, the duty on diesel was slashed from Rs10 to zero.

It is unofficially estimated that this decision could result in an annual revenue loss of approximately Rs1.55 trillion.

Indian Oil Minister Hardeep Singh Puri wrote on X that oil companies were facing losses of around Rs24 per litre on petrol and Rs30 on diesel due to high prices in the international market. To mitigate those losses, the government has provided a significant waiver in revenue income, he said.

Reducing the duty at current prices will help decrease the annual losses of oil marketing companies by 30% to 40%, Puri said.

On the other hand, to limit exports and support the exporting companies, which include the private firms, the Indian finance ministry earlier this month increased the tax on diesel exports to Rs55.5 per ⁠litre from Rs21.5 per litre.

Though the world's third-largest fuel oil importer, India also exports refined oil to a number of countries, including Bangladesh. The export tax hike will affect Bangladesh's diesel import from India through the pipeline.

Pakistan raised domestic fuel oil prices much earlier than Bangladesh, but drastically slashed the petroleum levy to zero for diesel. The tax cut brought down the petrol price by Rs80 per litre.

Apart from adjusting fuel prices, Pakistan introduced free bus services in major cities and targeted subsidies for bikers, farmers and transport operators to cushion the public from the 55% hike in oil prices.

Registered motorcyclists in Sindh will get Rs2,000 each a month – the equivalent of a Rs100 subsidy per litre for 20 litres of fuel.

Farmers will receive Rs1,500 per acre to cover diesel costs, while heavy transport operators will receive fixed subsidies on the condition that bus and truck fares are not increased.

Registered bus and truck owners in Punjab will receive up to Rs1,00,000 in subsidies to prevent them from passing the increased fuel costs on to passengers and consumers.

Like most finance professionals, I have always taken a keen interest in the stock market since we have a fair understanding of how capital markets function and the intrinsic value of shares.

I have been a retail investor in Bangladesh's stock market for almost four decades and have witnessed both the rise and fall of the market over the years. I was also an active investor during the painful debacles of 1996 and 2010, two defining episodes when excessive speculation was followed by steep corrections that wiped out the savings of many ordinary investors. Having observed those cycles closely, I was fortunate to act prudently and exit at the proper time on both occasions.

My understanding of the capital market also comes from professional experience. I handled the largest initial public offering of Lafarge Surma Cement in 2003, when Bangladesh's capital market was still at an early stage of development. During my tenure there, I worked closely with many market intermediaries including merchant banks, investment banks, mutual funds and stockbrokers' associations. These experiences gave me insight into the workings of the market and the challenges faced by retail investors, institutional investors and listed companies, as well as firms planning to go public.

The stock market can play a vital role in Bangladesh's economic development by mobilising savings, financing productive enterprises, and creating long-term wealth for citizens. Yet for many ordinary investors, the experience has too often been marked by disappointment, volatility and loss.

Bangladesh has witnessed painful market episodes in 1996 and again in 2010, when excessive speculation drove prices far beyond fundamentals before sharp corrections erased the savings of countless retail investors. These events were not merely market cycles. They exposed structural weaknesses that still deserve serious attention.

A retail-dominated market

Bangladesh's capital market remains heavily driven by retail participation. Individual investors are an important part of any healthy market, but when a market lacks sufficient participation from pension funds, insurance companies, mutual funds and other long-term institutions, prices can become more vulnerable to rumours, manipulation and short-term trading behaviour.

In many cases, retail investors enter after prices have already risen sharply, driven by fear of missing out. More informed participants often exit during these rallies and re-enter during downturns when valuations become attractive. This mismatch repeatedly transfers wealth from less-informed participants to better-prepared ones.

Why retail investors often lose money

A recurring feature of the market is herding behaviour. Buying because others are buying and selling because others are selling. Instead of analysing company earnings, cash flows, governance standards or industry prospects, many investors rely on informal tips, social circles or online speculation.

This is understandable. Fundamental analysis requires time, knowledge and discipline. Most people have professions and responsibilities outside finance. Expecting every small investor to become a securities analyst is unrealistic.

That is why well-functioning markets around the world rely on professional intermediaries such as mutual funds, pension managers, research firms and licensed advisers. These institutions help channel household savings into diversified and professionally managed investments.

The problem of low-quality listings

Another longstanding concern is the presence of weak or inactive listed companies. Firms that remain on the exchange despite poor disclosures, irregular annual general meetings, prolonged dividend suspension, weak operations or little commercial activity.

When such companies remain listed for years, they can become fertile ground for speculative trading, especially low-capitalisation shares with limited free float. These stocks are easier to corner, easier to move sharply and easier to use in pump-and-dump schemes that trap unsuspecting investors.

A stock exchange should reward productive enterprise, not preserve shells that no longer serve investors or the economy.

Rebuilding confidence in collective investment

Bangladesh's mutual fund sector has had a mixed history. Past governance failures damaged public trust. However, newer and better-managed asset managers have begun to demonstrate stronger professionalism, improved compliance and better disclosure standards.

This is encouraging. A vibrant mutual fund industry can reduce reckless direct speculation by giving ordinary savers access to diversified portfolios managed by professionals. In neighbouring India, systematic investment plans and mutual funds have helped broaden disciplined retail participation over time.

Bangladesh can move in a similar direction but only if transparency and governance are non-negotiable.

What should be done

1. Clean up the listed universe

There should be a comprehensive review of companies that remain listed despite prolonged non-compliance, weak operations, poor disclosures, failure to hold annual general meetings or repeated inability to provide reasonable returns to shareholders. Firms that no longer meet the spirit of public listing should be required to restructure, merge, move to a separate category or eventually exit the market after a fair transition period. A credible stock exchange must reflect productive enterprises and investor confidence, not inactive or persistently weak entities. There is an urgent need to address this issue if confidence in the market is to be restored.

2. Strengthen surveillance, enforcement and brokerage transparency

Unusual trading activity in illiquid low-fundamental stocks should be detected quickly using modern surveillance systems. Manipulation must lead to visible penalties, disgorgement, trading bans and prosecution where appropriate. Enforcement must be swift enough to deter repeat offenders.

At the same time, brokerage houses must maintain far higher standards of transparency and client protection. There have been recurring complaints of unauthorised trades, margin accounts opened or activated without clear consent, and inadequate disclosure of risks and charges. In some cases, clients are also given informal recommendations on which shares to buy without adequate research, professional competence or proper suitability assessment.

Such practices can severely harm retail investors and further weaken trust in the market. Stronger oversight, mandatory digital confirmations, clearer documentation, professional standards for advisory services and swift action against violations are urgently needed.

3. Make mutual funds fully transparent

Every mutual fund should publish standardised monthly performance data, portfolio allocations, fees, historical returns, benchmark comparisons and net asset value (NAV) on fund websites and a central exchange portal. Investors should be able to compare products easily before investing.

4. Expand institutional participation

Policies that encourage pension funds, insurance companies and long-term domestic institutions to participate responsibly can help stabilise markets and improve price discovery.

5. Invest in investor education

Retail investors need simple practical education: diversification, valuation basics, risk management, avoiding leverage, recognising manipulation and distinguishing investing from speculation. They also need constant reminders through public awareness campaigns, brokerage communications and market institutions to be cautious about investing without adequate knowledge or relying solely on rumours and tips. A more informed investor base is essential for a healthier and more stable market.

6. Develop a reliable stock analysis platform

A central digital platform should be developed to provide investors with easy access to company fundamentals, financial ratios, dividend history, earnings trends, governance disclosures and comparative sector data. Such a platform could also include independent research tools and model-based recommendations such as buy, hold or sell, based on transparent methodologies and regular updates. This would help retail investors make more informed decisions, reduce dependence on rumours and tips, and promote a more research-driven investment culture in the market.

Investing is not gambling

Markets involve risk, but risk is not the same as gambling. Investing means allocating capital based on analysis, discipline and long-term expectations. Speculation based purely on hearsay, rumours or blind momentum is closer to chance than informed decision-making.

For many families, market losses are not numbers on a screen. They are years of hard-earned savings. Bangladesh owes these citizens a market built on fairness, transparency and trust.

The country does not need another speculative boom. It needs a credible capital market where sound companies raise funds, disciplined investors earn reasonable returns and confidence is built through rules that are enforced consistently.

That transformation is still possible but only if reform is pursued with urgency.

The success in accountancy and finance careers in future will depend on adaptability, continuous learning, and the ability to combine technical expertise with human-centred skills, experts have said.

The future of work is undeniably uncertain, but it is teeming with opportunity for those willing to adapt, they said in a roundtable discussion held at The Business Standard conference room yesterday.

Titled "Finance and Accountancy Career Paths Reimagined – The Changing World of Work", the discussion was organised by ACCA Bangladesh, moderated by TBS Senior Executive Editor Sharier Khan.

Clive Webb, head of Business Management at ACCA Global, presenting the keynote, said there has been a fundamental change in career structures driven by the interconnected forces of demography, climate change, and technology.

He suggested that the role of the profession is shifting from being the "owner of knowledge" to the "provider of trust and integrity".

Webb described a transition from a traditional "pyramid" organisational structure to a "diamond" model, where fewer entry-level roles exist and the focus shifts to interpretation, human verification, and value-driven insight.

In his presentation, he further said the future of work in accountancy and finance is dynamic, uncertain, and full of opportunity.

"Success will depend on adaptability, continuous learning, and the ability to combine technical expertise with human-centric skills. By embracing flexibility and aligning with emerging trends – technology, sustainability, and purpose – professionals can thrive in a world where career paths are reimagined and accountancy is redefined," he said.

Prawma Tapashi Khan, country manager at ACCA Bangladesh, said that while concerns about job cuts due to AI are valid, the reality is that many new roles will emerge as the nature of work is redefined.

She added that technology itself will not replace human professionals, but those who fail to utilise technology effectively will be replaced by those who do.

Sajjad Hossain Bhuiyan, chairman of the Financial Reporting Council (FRC) Bangladesh, revealed that while 150,000 companies are registered with the RJSCF, only 35,000 submit tax returns. He challenged the accounting community to locate these missing 115,000 entities and bring them into the formal fold.

The FRC chairman addressed the need for a professional Valuation Code and the formal recognition of ACCA graduates under the Financial Reporting Act, acknowledging that their international expertise is vital for better economic governance.

ASM Amanullah, vice-chancellor of National University, Bangladesh, pointed out a stark disconnect: the country produces 10 lakh graduates annually, yet 3 lakh stay unemployed.

He attributed this to a lack of industry-academia linkage. To address this, the National University has launched 26 reform initiatives, including an MoU with ACCA to integrate professional certifications into the curriculum.

He advocated increasing education spending to 3% of GDP, stressing that a one-dollar investment in human development today can yield a 300% return within a decade.

Professor Tapan Mahmud, head of Business Administration in Accounting and Information Systems at the Bangladesh University of Professionals, said modern "outcome-based education" must be more than a paperwork exercise for accreditation.

He warned that over-reliance on digital tools is eroding students' decision-making abilities, urging a return to "dialogic teaching" that develops the capacity to handle complex and ambiguous scenarios beyond number-crunching.

Shanshil Ahmed Shibly, technology director at Grameenphone, said the first wave of AI has already passed and the era of "Agent AI" has begun, with "Robotic AI" expected to handle basic tasks by 2028.

He added companies are transforming workforces not just for profit but for survival, and that data sovereignty must be a national priority.

Imam Al Razi, director at Monstarlab Enterprise Solutions, said the challenge often lies in the mindset of business owners who fear automation or lack the capacity to implement ERP systems. He called on universities to introduce these technologies early so students remain relevant in a world where repetitive tasks are rapidly being transferred to AI.

Tanaka Islam, head of HR at Maersk (Bangladesh and Sri Lanka), observed that the era of preferring select institutions is over, with focus now firmly on mindset and self-awareness.

She urged academics to move beyond ceremonial collaborations and engage in meaningful mentorship that prepares students for the corporate environment.

Seezan M Choudhury, partner at ACE Advisory, added that while managing "Gen Z" can be challenging due to their preference for flexibility over certainty, they also present an opportunity.

He suggested that AI-driven automation at the "bottom of the pyramid" allows mid-level managers to produce high-quality reports that previously required large technical teams, enabling Bangladesh to "leapfrog" traditional accounting methods.

Jakir Hossain, group CFO at Asiatic 3Sixty, described the transition of finance leaders from "historians" to "architects" of business.

He shared how re-engineering a company's financing structure saved hundreds of crores, proving that strategic integration is more valuable than technical bookkeeping alone.

Snehasish Barua, managing director of SMAC Advisory Services, noted a critical shortage of forensic accountants – a field that accounts for eight out of ten client requests – and urged institutions to develop specialists in this high-demand area.

Mohsena Khanom Munna, founder of De Tempete, said accounting business process outsourcing (BPO) is a major export sector for Bangladesh but suffers from a gap in "job-ready" skills and the high cost of training interns who often leave for different time zones. She proposed embedding technical courses during university education.

Marzana F Chowdhury, managing director at RSM Bangladesh, said finance professionals must now act as "co-pilots" to management, using data insights to drive strategy rather than simply reporting the past.

Mohammod Rashedul Alam Chowdhury, financial management officer at the Asian Development Bank, stressed the need for specialised finance cadres in the public sector.

Sarwar Alam, executive partner at KZK Advisory, said Bangladesh's 78 lakh SMEs represent a vast job market if accountants can offer affordable, AI-assisted services.

Mohammad Rokibul Kabir, dean of the Faculty of Business and Entrepreneurship at Daffodil International University, showcased successful "Pathway to ACCA" programmes that allow students to work while studying.

Shah Waliul Manzoor, senior business development manager of ACCA Bangladesh, said a significant part of this journey involves the continuous evolution of qualifications.

He said integration of artificial intelligence into the curriculum by 2027 is a key part of ACCA's strategic direction, supported by research and "Professional Insights" resources.

Labio Bala, financial specialist at UNOPS, said that while degrees are essential, competency and the confidence to add value are the ultimate benchmarks.

He said participants agreed that by embracing flexibility and aligning with technology and sustainability trends, the reimagined finance professional will not only survive but lead the coming transformation, where career paths are defined by the ability to evolve.

Despite steady economic growth, Bangladesh’s tax system continues to underperform, with average annual revenue shortfalls reaching nearly Tk 59,000 crore over the past five years, according to the Policy Research Institute (PRI) of Bangladesh.

“Persistent shortfalls reached approximately 20 percent of the revised budget target, while tax revenue growth collapsed from 21 percent to just 2.2 percent,” the thinktank said, pointing to what it described as a “structural weakness in tax effort.”

PRI Research Director Bazlul Haque Khondker made the remarks during a presentation on the need to rationalise the supplementary duty (SD) and value-added tax (VAT) structure at the organisation’s office in Dhaka today.

He said low VAT productivity, despite relatively higher buoyancy, reflects deeper structural issues, including a narrow tax base and policy distortions.

The current system, he added, indicates significant untapped tax capacity.

He suggested that comprehensive base expansion and reforms could substantially improve revenue mobilisation.

Bangladesh has set an ambitious target to raise its tax-to-GDP ratio to around 15 percent by fiscal year 2034-35 (FY35), up from the current 6.7 percent.

To reach an interim target of 10.9 percent by FY30, the country will need to sustain an average annual revenue growth of about 17 percent over the five years from FY25.

According to PRI, achieving these targets will require a fundamental shift in tax policy rather than incremental adjustments.

“Reaching a 15 percent tax-to-GDP ratio will demand structural reform, not just base expansion or rate hikes,” the presentation noted.

According to the thinktank, Bangladesh’s tax structure is also expected to evolve, with direct taxes projected to grow faster than indirect taxes. It projects that direct tax revenue will expand at an average rate of 22 percent, compared to 12.9 percent for indirect taxes between FY25 and FY35.

Even so, indirect taxes, particularly VAT and SD, will continue to play a significant role, accounting for around 45 percent of total tax revenue by FY35.

PRI stressed that reforms must prioritise building a broader-based and properly structured VAT system, while gradually reducing reliance on supplementary duties.

“Simply raising SD rates on existing products will not close the revenue gap,” said Khondker, warning that excessively high rates risk triggering adverse behavioural responses, in line with the Laffer Curve effect, where higher taxes can ultimately lead to lower revenue collection.

Speaking as the chief guest at the event, Zakir Ahmed Khan, chairman of Palli Karma-Sahayak Foundation (PKSF), said Bangladesh’s tax potential could rise significantly with stronger enforcement and reduced leakages.

The proper implementation of existing laws could boost revenue by 30-40 percent, he estimated.

He further estimated that improving compliance alone could help the country reach a 15 percent tax-to-GDP ratio without raising rates, but cautioned against turning enforcement into “tax terrorism,” stressing the need for trust and voluntary compliance.

Khan also called for separating tax policy from administration within the National Board of Revenue (NBR) to improve efficiency and accountability, adding that stronger reforms and better analysis are key to unlocking revenue potential.

Separating tax policy from administration and establishing a credible macro-fiscal framework are "mission-critical" reforms for Bangladesh, according to development partners and economists speaking at a high-level policy dialogue in Dhaka yesterday (26 April).

Jean Pesme, division director of the World Bank for Bangladesh and Bhutan, said strengthening the tax system requires urgent institutional clarity and consistent implementation.

"Let me begin by echoing two key points that have already been raised. First, the separation between tax policy and tax administration is absolutely mission-critical. While there may have been reasons for not advancing this reform earlier, it is something that now needs to happen. This separation is essential for improving governance within the tax system, as well as for advancing digitalisation," he said.

He stressed that Bangladesh must move forward with a clear tax reform roadmap and avoid policy reversals.

"The second major challenge is to establish a clear tax reform plan and begin implementation without policy reversals. What matters most at this stage is that the overall direction is crystal clear, and that implementation supports this direction to demonstrate credibility," he added.

Pesme also warned that investors judge policies based on execution rather than announcements. "From an investor's perspective, the key question is whether policy announcements will actually be implemented. It may be more effective to start with less ambitious reforms, but ensure they are properly executed."

He further said Bangladesh's investment climate requires stronger foundations, noting that revenue mobilisation, financial sector stability, and business environment reforms must move together. "Countries that attract investment do so not just through incentives, but through macroeconomic stability, strong institutions, rule of law and efficient administration," he added.

He also highlighted concerns over low tax-to-GDP ratio, high tax expenditures, and over-reliance on exemptions, stressing the need to broaden the tax base and improve transparency.

Echoing similar concerns, Chandan Sapkota, country economist at the Bangladesh Resident Mission of the Asian Development Bank, said revenue reform and macro-fiscal discipline are central to improving economic stability.

"I think the point on revenue is very important, particularly the institutional reforms around how the National Board of Revenue is structured," he said.

He noted that weak fiscal discipline creates mid-year policy adjustments and discretionary space within tax administration.

"Bangladesh is the only country in South Asia without a clear fiscal anchor. As a result, there is no strong discipline on the expenditure side, and when that discipline is missing, it also affects revenue discipline," he said.

He added that improving the macro-fiscal framework is urgent in the context of rising debt pressures and long-term fiscal sustainability.

The remarks came at a high-level luncheon organised by the Foreign Investors' Chamber of Commerce and Industry (FICCI) at a hotel in Dhaka today, focusing on "Conducive Fiscal Policy for a Better Investment Climate".

The event brought together policymakers, economists, development partners, business leaders, and members of the diplomatic community to discuss Bangladesh's fiscal outlook. The session featured M Masrur Reaz, chairman of Policy Exchange Bangladesh, as the keynote speaker. He noted that tax policy and administration remain key concerns for investors, citing high corporate tax rates, complex compliance processes, fragmented administration, and policy unpredictability as major challenges.

The panel discussion was moderated by Shams Zaman, board member of FICCI and country managing partner at PwC. Panelists included Jean Pesme of the World Bank, Chandan Sapkota of the Asian Development Bank, Fahmida Khatun, executive director of Centre for Policy Dialogue, and Abul Kasem Khan, chairperson of Business Initiative Leading Development (BUILD).

Panelists broadly agreed that ensuring policy stability, simplifying the tax system, strengthening institutions, and improving coordination among regulatory bodies will be critical to attracting and sustaining foreign investment in the coming years.

Fahmida Khatun called for tariff rationalisation to be the most urgent reform priority this year, stressing that Bangladesh must prepare for a post-LDC graduation reality by strengthening domestic revenue mobilisation without over-reliance on import duties.

Rupali Haque Chowdhury, FICCI president and managing director of Berger Paints Bangladesh, said that to improve the business environment, attract investment, and increase the tax-to-GDP ratio, it is essential to ensure transparency, digitalisation, and policy continuity.

Abul Kasem Khan said, "M Masrur Reaz showed a corporate tax rate of around 27.5%, but in reality we are paying close to 40%. One of my companies is even paying about 45% because of the Advance Income Tax. So, this requires a radical reform.

"I would suggest doing away with AIT if possible. I understand it is a difficult policy choice, but if additional taxes are collected on income or profits, that amount should either be refunded or adjusted against next year's liabilities."

He added, "If such a reform is introduced and linked with employment generation, it could create a strong incentive structure. Companies that generate more employment could receive refunds, encouraging them to reinvest profits into capital machinery, expansion, or new business ventures instead of distributing everything as dividends. This kind of reform would help promote reinvestment, productivity, and job creation."

Tax deduction at source (TDS) has long served as an efficient mechanism for revenue collection within Bangladesh’s income tax framework. However, its growing overlap with the turnover-based minimum tax, and the treatment of tax deducted at source as minimum tax in many cases under the Income Tax Act 2023, is creating unintended structural distortions in the business environment. While these measures may ensure a predictable revenue stream for the government, their combined effect is becoming increasingly burdensome for businesses, particularly in terms of cash flow, tax equity, and overall economic efficiency.

The main objective of the minimum tax is to ensure that no taxpayer is left out of the tax net. That is, even if a person or organization shows a loss or very little profit, they must pay a minimum tax on a certain basis. It is a way to prevent tax evasion and protect revenue. In Bangladesh, this minimum tax is mainly implemented in two ways.

First, the turnover-based minimum tax imposes a levy on gross receipts, irrespective of profitability. Currently, companies and institutions exceeding Tk 50 lakh in turnover and individuals exceeding Tk 4 crore are subject to this tax, with rates ranging from 0.1% to as high as 3% depending on the sector. For instance, tobacco and soft drink manufacturers face a 3% rate, mobile operators 1.5%, and most other sectors around 1%.

Second, Tax Deducted at Source (TDS), although legally designed as an advance tax, often functions in practice as a de facto minimum or even final tax. In theory, TDS should be adjustable against final tax liabilities. However, in reality, such adjustments are frequently limited or unavailable, particularly for businesses operating at a loss or with slim profit margins. As a result, taxes deducted at source effectively become non-refundable, locking in a tax burden regardless of actual income.

In many cases, TDS effectively serves as a minimum tax, ensuring that the government secures a certain level of revenue even when the taxpayer’s financial condition is unfavorable. A significant portion of taxes deducted or collected at source under various provisions, spanning Sections 88 to 139 of the Income Tax Act 2023, functions in this way.

Even if the final tax calculation suggests a lower liability, the amount already deducted or collected often remains unchanged, creating a structural mismatch and undermining fairness in the tax system.

This dual application creates a significant imbalance. A substantial portion of tax collected under multiple provisions of the Income Tax Act now carries the characteristics of minimum taxation. Consequently, businesses often face effective tax rates far exceeding statutory rates, sometimes by five to ten times. This is particularly damaging for credit-dependent enterprises, which may struggle to maintain liquidity, meet loan obligations, and sustain operations. The implications extend beyond individual firms, posing risks to the broader financial system, including banking sector stability.

Fundamentally, this structure deviates from the core principle of income taxation—that tax should be levied on net income, not gross receipts. By ignoring costs, losses, and the taxpayer’s ability to pay, the current system imposes what can only be described as economically punitive measures.

Moreover, the absence of a mechanism to carry forward excess minimum tax paid during loss-making periods further compounds the problem, effectively leading to elements of double taxation.

In contrast, most developed tax systems treat TDS strictly as an advance payment, fully adjustable against final liabilities. Even in neighboring economies like India, such adjustments are standard practice. Bangladesh’s partial and inconsistent integration of these systems has resulted in unnecessary complexity and diminished business confidence.

As the government prepares the national budget for 2026–27, there is a timely opportunity to recalibrate the tax framework. Several policy measures merit serious consideration:

Repealing the provision of minimum tax under Section 163, which conflicts with fundamental income tax principles and imposes disproportionate burdens.
Clearly redefining TDS as an adjustable advance tax, ensuring full reconciliation at the time of final assessment.
Rationalizing TDS rates, setting them at 2% for industrial and trading sectors, and 1% for service, advertising, and media sectors.
Reducing the turnover-based minimum tax rate to a uniform 0.5% to ease pressure on businesses.
Introducing a carry-forward mechanism to allow adjustment of minimum tax paid during loss-making periods against future profits.
Simplifying the overall tax structure to eliminate instances of multiple taxation on the same income stream.
Providing targeted relief or conditional exemptions for small and medium enterprises (SMEs), which are particularly vulnerable to cash flow constraints.
Revenue mobilization is undeniably critical for national development. However, it must not come at the expense of economic vitality. A tax system that is perceived as punitive or inequitable risks discouraging investment, stifling industrial growth, and undermining long-term competitiveness.

A balanced, transparent, and business-friendly tax regime is not merely desirable—it is essential. The upcoming budget presents a crucial opportunity to address systemic issues and lay the foundation for a more sustainable, growth-oriented fiscal framework. While ensuring revenue generation remains important, it is equally critical to foster a competitive and sustainable business environment.

The current structure of minimum tax and tax at source, combining features of advance, minimum, and partial final taxes, can act as a deterrent to investment, industrialization, and long-term economic growth. Therefore, the need of the hour is to revisit these mechanisms in the next budget and introduce a more balanced, fair, and investment-friendly tax system.