Oil prices ​rose on Friday and notched weekly gains, reflecting scepticism about prospects for a ceasefire in the ‌month-old Iran war.

Brent crude futures rose by $4.56, or 4.2 percent, to $112.57 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate futures rose $5.16, or 5.5 percent, to settle at $99.64.

The Brent benchmark has jumped 53 percent since February 27, the day before the US and Israel ​launched strikes against Iran, while WTI has gained 45 percent since then. On a weekly basis, Brent gained ​about 0.3 percent, while WTI gained over 1 percent.

Traders are cautious about Trump’s statements about the Iran talks. An Iranian official told Reuters that a US proposal conveyed to Tehran by Pakistan ​was “one-sided and unfair”.

“Investors remain focused on the war’s longevity rather than headlines, with any prolonged closure of ​the strait (of Hormuz) or damage to infrastructure keeping a significant risk premium in prices,” StoneX analyst Alex Hodes said.

While Trump extended his deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face the destruction of its energy infrastructure, ​the US has also sent thousands of troops to the Middle East, with Trump weighing whether ​to use ground forces to seize Iran’s strategic oil hub of Kharg Island. “We look for the oil market to develop ‌an immunity to Trump’s conciliatory comments and optimistic tone regarding a deal, especially given apparent intentions to send an additional 10,000 troops toward Iran,” oil trading adviser Ritterbusch & Associates said in a note to clients.

The Iran war has taken about 11 million barrels per day out of global oil supply, with the ​International Energy Agency describing the ​crisis as worse than the two 1970s oil shocks combined.

“Every day flows through the Strait remain restricted, more than 10 million barrels of oil are missing ... tightening the oil ​market further,” said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo.

Analysts at Macquarie Group said that oil ​prices will fall quickly if the war begins to wind down soon but still remain above pre-conflict levels. However, prices could rise to $200 if the war drags on until the end of June, they added.

Elsewhere, Russian oil producers have ​warned buyers that they could declare force majeure on supplies from ​major Baltic Sea ports after Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure.

Major stock indexes eased on Thursday as Brent oil futures rose above $105 a barrel, with Iran's denial of any talks with the US dimming hopes of a quick resolution to the nearly one-month-long Middle East war.

Global debt markets also sold off, pushing yields higher, while safe-haven buying boosted the US dollar.

Prospects of a prolonged war in the Middle East fanned worries about energy supply disruptions. Oil and European natural gas rose, with Brent futuresLCOc1 up $4.77 at $106.99 a barrel and US crude futures CLc1 up at $93.64.

US President Donald Trump warned Iran on Thursday to "get serious" about a deal to end nearly four weeks of fighting.

Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi had earlier said Tehran was reviewing the US proposal but that there were no talks on winding down the war. Iran on Thursday launched multiple waves of missiles at Israel.

The war, triggered by US–Israeli strikes on Iran in late February, has rattled global markets and effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, a conduit for a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas flows.

Stocks fell "as oil prices resumed their upward climb", said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York.

"Unfortunately, we're in a market that's being driven by oil prices. The rhetoric back and forth is continuing, and until talks begin, the market is going to be subject to the price of oil," he said.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average .DJI fell 75.50 points, or 0.19 percent, to 46,342.69, the S&P 500 fell 43.59 points, or 0.68 percent, to 6,547.14 and the Nasdaq Composite .IXIC fell 216.95 points, or 1.02 percent, to 21,705.16.

MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe .MIWD00000PUS dropped 6.75 points, or 0.68 percent, to 988.71. The pan-European STOXX 600 index fell 0.64 percent.

Japan's Nikkei ended down 0.3 percent, while worries over rising energy costs hammered South Korea's KOSPI, which slumped 3.2 percent. Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 1.9 percent and China's blue chips dropped 1.3 percent.

The Philippines held an unscheduled central bank meeting due to the turmoil, while Germany's central bank head said an ECB rate hike next month was "an option".

Fears of a 2022-style inflation shock have seen traders fully price out any chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut this year, further supporting the dollar.

Germany's two-year bond yield DE2YT=RR, sensitive to European Central Bank rate expectations, rose after falling on Wednesday. Bond yields move inversely to prices.

Worries about persistent inflation also drove US Treasury yields higher. The benchmark US 10-year Treasury yield US10YT=RR was last up 4.2 basis points at 4.37 percent. The two-year note's yield US2YT=RR was last up 5.4 bps at 3.934 percent.

Earlier, the yield on Japan's two-year government bond JP2YT=RR hit its highest level in 30 years at 1.33 percent, as traders cemented bets on another Bank of Japan rate hike as early as next month.

In currencies, the US dollar rose against most major currencies, reviving its safe-haven appeal.

The dollar rose on Friday and was on course for its strongest monthly gain in ​almost a year, buoyed by safe-haven demand as the Middle East war intensifies and hopes fade for de-escalation.

The yen was particularly under pressure, falling in afternoon trading ‌to its weakest since July 2024 and raising the possibility of currency market intervention by the Japanese authorities.

Iran is expected to respond on Friday to a US peace proposal to end the war, with US President Donald Trump and senior White House officials told by interlocutors to expect a counter-proposal.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that the war was expected to last weeks, rather than months, and that US objectives ​could be met without ground troops.

US consumer sentiment slipped to a three-month low in March as war-driven oil price rises weighed on the economic outlook.

Safe-haven flows underpinned the ​dollar, which has also been lifted by rising expectations for a US rate increase this year. The dollar index rose 0.3 percent to 100.17, up 2.57 percent so far in March and on course for its best monthly showing since July 2025, when it rose 3.4 percent.

“Weekend trading is also, to a certain degree, ​taking hold in terms of what you might or might not want to be long or short over the weekend,” said Marvin Loh, senior global market strategist at State Street ​in Boston. “The dollar has been pretty correlated with risk these days in the correct way.”

While senior Iranian officials said diplomacy continued, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps reiterated a ban on all shipping through the Strait of Hormuz that was linked to allies of the US and Israel.

Markets stayed on edge at the end of another volatile week, as Trump again extended a deadline for striking Iran’s energy facilities even as Washington and Tehran ​offered starkly conflicting accounts of diplomatic progress.

The Pentagon is considering sending up to 10,000 more ground troops to the region, the Wall Street Journal reported, further dimming investor hopes of ​a near-term end to the war.

Two liquefied petroleum gas tankers, BW Elm and BW Tyr, are crossing the ​Strait of Hormuz bound for India, according to ‌ship tracking data from LSEG and Kpler.

The US-Israeli war against Iran has all but halted shipping through the strait, but Iran ​said this week that “non-hostile vessels” may transit the waterway ​if they coordinate with Iranian authorities.

The two India-flagged vessels have crossed the Gulf area and are in ​the eastern Strait of Hormuz, the data showed. India is ​gradually moving its stranded LPG cargoes out from the strait, with four LPG tankers moved so far - Shivalik, Nanda Devi, Pine Gas, and Jag ​Vasant.

As of Friday, 20 Indian-flagged ships including five ​LPG carriers were stranded in the Gulf, Rajesh Kumar Sinha, special ‌secretary in the federal shipping ministry, said.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced on Friday that it has reached a staff-level agreement with Pakistan to unlock a new $1.2 billion package as part of its support programs for the country.

The South Asian nation is one of the largest debtors to the IMF after Argentina and Ukraine.

The IMF in a statement praised the Pakistani authorities' commitment to "pursuing sound and prudent macroeconomic policies to preserve the recent gains in macro-financial stabilization, while deepening structural reforms to accelerate growth and strengthening social protection to mitigate the impact of volatile energy prices on the most vulnerable."

The disbursement is subject to approval by the IMF Executive Board, according to the fund's statement.

The agreement, if approved, would give Pakistan access to $1 billion under the Extended Fund Facility and around $210 million under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility, it said.

The stock market’s performance depends on how well listed companies perform, but many firms disappointed shareholders in the last fiscal year, offering low dividends mainly due to weak sales and profits.

So far, 158 out of 228 listed companies -- excluding banks, non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs), and insurance firms -- have published their financial reports and announced dividends for the last fiscal year.

Among them, 80 companies provided dividends of less than 5 percent, while 47 gave no dividend at all. 49 firms declared dividends of more than 10 percent, and 24 companies offered exactly 10 percent.

Data showed that dividends of 41 companies increased, 55 paid lower dividends, and 62 kept their payouts unchanged compared to the previous year.

Rashedul Hasan, chief executive officer (CEO) of UCB Asset Management, said dividends are “very crucial for understanding a company’s willingness to share profits with minority shareholders and its ability to generate enough cash flow.”

He added that dividends also help develop the capital market, but “we do not expect all companies to pay high dividends every year.”

He explained that if a company can generate higher returns by reinvesting cash, it should retain profits instead of paying dividends.

“However, some companies avoid sharing profits with shareholders even when they earn well, which is not a good sign. Typically, well-governed firms and multinational companies provide good dividends, even if many others make high profits.”

Rashedul said many companies faced a tough year due to high interest rates and inflation. “High inflation reduced people’s purchasing power, which tightened sales, while profitability was under pressure from high bank loan rates,” he added.

Looking ahead, he said, “There is little hope for strong improvement amid the ongoing global conflicts.”

OPERATIONAL INEFFICIENCY AND MARKET CHALLENGES

In some cases, companies struggle because they cannot manage operations efficiently over the long term. Other reasons include macroeconomic shocks, loss of competitiveness, or a lack of commitment from sponsors to run the company profitably, said Kazi Monir, CEO of Shanta Asset Management.

He added that many companies fail to sustain their performance after listing, particularly when sponsors offload their shares.

“Companies are usually listed when they are performing at their peak, and sponsors often exit within three to five years. Regulators and issue managers need to be more careful and carry out stronger checks when bringing such companies to the market,” he said.

Monir also highlighted that this trend is not unique to Bangladesh. Investors are advised to carefully assess initial public offerings (IPOs) and distinguish between strong and weak companies to avoid losses.

Weak performance among many listed firms has made the stock market less attractive to investors. Data from the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) shows that the benchmark index, DSEX, fell by about 13 percent during the last fiscal year.

The number of beneficiary owner (BO) accounts also dropped by 5 percent to 16.67 lakh, according to the Central Depository Bangladesh Limited (CDBL).

Despite overall weak performance, some companies continue to perform strongly and provide handsome dividends. Fifteen companies declared dividends of more than 50 percent, most of them following good corporate governance and efficient management.

Among the top dividend payers, Meghna Petroleum Limited announced a 200 percent dividend, Jamuna Oil Company Limited 180 percent, Walton Hi-Tech Industries PLC 175 percent, and Padma Oil Company Limited 160 percent. Square Pharmaceuticals PLC provided a 120 percent dividend, while Eastern Cables Limited and Eastern Lubricants Blenders Limited each declared 80 percent.

Other high-paying companies include United Power Generation & Distribution Company Limited at 65 percent, IBN Sina Pharmaceutical Industry PLC 64 percent, Renata PLC 55 percent, Mobil Jamuna Lubricants Limited 52 percent, Kohinoor Chemical Company (Bangladesh) Limited 50 percent, BSRM Limited 50 percent, BSRM Steels Limited 50 percent, and Runner Automobiles PLC 55 percent.

Stocks opened on a negative note today (24 March) after a five-day Eid holiday, as investor sentiment remained cautious amid macroeconomic concerns.

In early trading up to 10:20am, the benchmark DSEX index fell 59 points to 5,294, while the blue-chip DS30 index dropped 29 points to 2,021.

Market breadth was broadly negative, with 247 issues declining, 48 advancing and 56 remaining unchanged.

Market insiders attributed the downturn to mounting concerns over inflationary pressures. Fears of potential fuel price hikes and supply disruptions, linked to ongoing tensions in the Middle East, have further dampened investor confidence.

QatarEnergy on ​Tuesday ‌declared force ​majeure ​on some of ⁠its ​affected ​long-term LNG supply ​contracts, ​with counterparties including ‌customers ⁠in Italy, Belgium, ​South ​Korea, ⁠and ​China.

Global brewers operating in India ​are warning of price increases and supply disruptions as a shortage of gas due to the Iran war ‌drives up the cost of glass bottles and shipping delays hit imports of aluminium needed by can makers.

India is especially vulnerable to fuel availability as the world's fourth-largest importer of natural gas, relying heavily on the Middle East for shipments, sourcing about 40% of its supply from Qatar.

Iranian attacks have partially disrupted Qatar's export capacity, tightening ​gas availability for Indian manufacturers.

The Brewers Association of India, representing global brewers Heineken, Anheuser-Busch InBev and Carlsberg told Reuters that ​glass bottle prices have surged around 20%, paper carton rates have doubled as well as other packaging materials ⁠such as labels and tape.

Gas is essential to keeping furnaces and production lines running, and shortages have forced several glass bottle makers ​to partially or fully halt operations. Aluminium can suppliers have also warned of possible reductions just as India heads into its peak summer ​season, when beer sales typically rise.

"We are asking for price increases in the range of 12-15%," the association's director general Vinod Giri told Reuters. "We have advised our member companies to individually approach states."

The rising cost of production is making some operations unsustainable, he added.

Heineken's India unit United Breweries, Anheuser-Busch InBev and Carlsberg ​did not respond to Reuters queries.

The market was worth $7.8 billion in 2024, and is expected to double by 2030, Grand View Research says. ​Heineken alone accounts for roughly half the market, while AB InBev and Carlsberg each account for 19%, the association said.

While the three companies dominate India's ‌beer sector, ⁠many smaller players such as Bira and Simba also operate in the market.

Glass, plastics industry crisis

Beer and liquor sales in India have grown steadily alongside rising urbanisation and a young, increasingly affluent population.

The Confederation of Indian Alcoholic Beverage Companies, which represents many domestic companies, said it has written to several states seeking price adjustments to offset rising freight, logistics and input costs.

India's alcohol sector is tightly regulated, and raising retail prices typically requires ​approval. Around two-thirds of India's 28 ​states must authorise changes.

"Brewers may ⁠find it difficult to maintain supplies in states that do not allow price increases," the association said.

Some glass bottle vendors are warning their clients of reduced supplies and have increased their prices.

Nitin Agarwal, CEO ​of Fine Art Glass Works in Firozabad, a glass-making hub in northern Uttar Pradesh state, said ​he has cut production ⁠by 40% at his glass bottle making factory due to gas shortages. His customers include many liquor companies as well as producers of juice and ketchup bottles.

"We've cut production and increased prices by 17-18%," Agarwal said.

The shortages have already affected India's $5 billion bottled water market with some producers increasing ⁠prices by ​11% due to rising rates of plastic bottles and caps.

And there are signs ​the crisis is spreading.

An executive at Lotte Chilsung Beverage, one of the leading South Korean soft drinks companies, told Reuters that it has up to three months of inventory ​for plastic bottles and plastic materials.

"The situation is serious," he said.

Bangladesh will prioritise bilateral trade negotiations, deferment of its graduation from least developed country (LDC) status, among other issues, at the World Trade Organisation’s (WTO) 14th Ministerial Conference, which opens tomorrow in Cameroon’s capital, Yaoundé.

The country has scheduled talks with the European Union (EU) on signing a free trade agreement (FTA) on the sidelines, Commerce Minister Khandakar Abdul Muktadir, who will be leading the Bangladesh delegation at the conference, told The Daily Star over the phone yesterday.

“We have a plan to discuss trade agreements and business issues with several countries and trade blocs apart from participating in the regular consultation meetings at the summit,” Muktadir said.

The four-day summit comes as the rules-based multilateral trading system under the WTO faces mounting pressure from bilateral deals, regionalism and protectionism by developed nations.

On the sidelines, Bangladesh will also seek EU support for delaying its LDC graduation, said the minister. The country applied to the United Nations last month to defer its LDC graduation by three years to November 2029. The UN Committee for Development Policy discussed the request at its annual meeting in New York last month and has set up a process to evaluate the application.

The Bangladesh delegation will also seek cooperation from member countries as it tries to join the China-led Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (RCEP). Trade partnership discussions are scheduled with South Korea, Singapore, and New Zealand, scheduled during the summit, which runs until March 29.

Other priorities on Bangladesh’s agenda include e-commerce, foreign direct investment and fisheries subsidies. On the latter, Bangladesh has agreed to reduce funding for the fishing of rare and endangered species.

Mohammad Abdur Razzaque, chairman of the Research and Policy Integration for Development (RAPID), recently said it is difficult to predict how much support Bangladesh can secure for deferring graduation.

Gambia, as LDC coordinator, has proposed allowing LDCs and graduating LDCs with per capita real income below $1,000 -- measured using 1990 US dollar exchange rates – to continue providing subsidies.

Under that criterion, Razzaque said, Bangladesh would qualify to maintain subsidies in various sectors.

Gambia has also sought an extension of the agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS) for graduating LDCs, which would benefit Bangladesh by preserving its patent waiver facility on goods such as medicines beyond graduation.

But concrete decisions at the ministerial conference will be difficult given fragmentation in global trade caused by US reciprocal tariffs and the US-Israel war on Iran, Razzaque said.

“If all the LDCs and graduating LDCs can raise their voice collectively, a few good decisions may come from the conference, because the WTO also has an agenda for LDCs,” he added.

Ministers from across the world will attend the conference to discuss challenges facing the multilateral trading system and decide on the WTO’s future work. The conference will be chaired by Luc Magloire Mbarga Atangana, Cameroon’s minister of trade.

The opening session begins at 10am tomorrow with welcome remarks by the chair, the WTO director-general, and guests, including heads of state or government. This will be followed by a ministerial breakout session covering WTO foundational issues.

Thursday’s breakout sessions will focus on WTO reform, with each session facilitated by a minister. A plenary session on WTO reform will be held at the end of the day.

Friday will begin with an update on dispute settlement reform, followed by ministerial sessions on fisheries subsidies, incorporation of the Investment Facilitation for Development Agreement, the e-commerce work programme and moratorium, agriculture, and development, including LDC issues.

The final day will begin with a heads of delegation meeting at ministerial level in preparation for the closing session, scheduled for midday.

Grameenphone Limited has forecast a slight decline in its financial performance for the first quarter of 2026, citing global geopolitical tensions and ongoing domestic economic challenges.

In a price-sensitive disclosure submitted to the Dhaka Stock Exchange today (24 March), the country's largest telecom operator said its revenue for the January-March period is expected to fall by around 2% year-on-year.

Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) are also projected to decline by approximately 3% year-on-year.

The company noted that further details regarding its performance will be disclosed in its official Q1 2026 financial report.

Following the announcement, Grameenphone's share price fell 1.34% to close at Tk251.10, reflecting investor concerns over its near-term outlook.

Grameenphone attributed the expected slowdown primarily to ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which have disrupted global energy markets.

Bangladesh, being heavily reliant on imported fuels and liquefied natural gas (LNG), is particularly vulnerable to such shocks. The situation has led to increased volatility in energy supply, higher fuel import costs, and early signs of strain in logistics and energy availability across the country.

The telecom operator said that although the overall business environment remains relatively stable, the combined impact of global uncertainties and a weak macroeconomic backdrop is beginning to affect economic activity and consumer behaviour.

Early indicators point to reduced mobility, slower business operations, and pressure on disposable incomes – factors that could weigh on telecom usage and spending.

Seasonal challenges have also added to the pressure, with severe storms in recent months disrupting operations in several areas and compounding broader economic headwinds.

Despite the challenges, the company said it remains committed to maintaining service continuity and operational resilience, adding that it is closely monitoring the situation and taking necessary measures to safeguard network performance and support customers during this period of uncertainty

The cautious outlook for early 2026 comes after a mixed financial performance in 2025.

Grameenphone reported an 18.53% year-on-year decline in profit after tax to Tk2,958 crore, down from Tk3,631 crore in 2024. The fall was attributed to subdued consumer spending, rising operational costs and cautious business activity.

Earnings per share also decreased to Tk21.90 from Tk26.89 in the previous year.

Revenue for 2025 stood at Tk15,806 crore, slightly lower than Tk15,845 crore recorded in 2024.

Mobile communication services remained the primary revenue driver, contributing Tk15,520 crore, while customer equipment and other segments added Tk54 crore.

Grameenphone's subscriber base continued to expand, reaching 8.39 crore by the end of 2025. Of these, 4.87 crore, or 58.1%, were internet users, underlining the growing importance of data services in the company's business model.

Despite the earnings pressure, the company demonstrated strong cash generation by declaring a 105% final cash dividend for 2025, bringing the total annual payout to 215%, including the interim dividend.

Bangladesh’s annual fossil fuel import bill is projected to soar by $4.8 billion, a 40 percent increase from 2025 levels, due to the Middle East crisis, according to a new analysis by Zero Carbon Analytics (ZCA).

The financial shock of oil, gas, and coal prices will cost the equivalent of 1.1 percent of Bangladesh’s 2024 gross domestic product if current elevated levels hold for a year. The country spends roughly $12 billion annually on energy imports, according to government data.

“This type of crisis is repeating itself, echoing the price shocks caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, causing the costs of Bangladesh’s dependence on fossil fuels and its delayed energy transition to mount,” the ZCA analysts wrote in a March report.

It noted that the Russia-Ukraine conflict had sent Bangladesh into an economic crisis, with GDP levels only recovering in 2025. Asian liquefied natural gas (LNG) rose by 390 percent in the year leading up to Russia’s invasion, followed by a 48 percent increase in the five months after it, resulting in power demand shortfalls and months of power cuts. In October 2022, blackouts left 130 million people without power.

The hefty price tag, driven by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, threatens to severely drain the country’s foreign exchange reserves, reducing its import cover ratio from 5.7 months to 4.9 months.

“The increased import bill will also weigh on the country’s currency, which could push up inflation and apply greater pressure on the central bank to raise borrowing costs,” wrote the international research group that provides analysis on global energy transition.

The crisis exposes Dhaka’s deep vulnerability to volatile international energy markets, as 46 percent of the country’s total energy supply came from imports in 2023. In the fiscal year 2024-2025, imports accounted for 65 percent of its power needs.

Much of this vital fuel flows through the Strait of Hormuz, where shipping is now severely disrupted. Bangladesh imports around 1.4 million tonnes of crude oil through the strait annually under long-term contracts with Saudi Aramco and Abu Dhabi National Oil Company.

An Aramco cargo of 100,000 tonnes bound for Bangladesh is already delayed in the Gulf because of the war, noted the ZCA report.

Supply pressures are emerging across multiple energy sectors. Confirming the squeeze on refined products, the Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation (BPC) reported in early March: “Around 60,000 tonnes out of the 293,000 tonnes of diesel planned for import in March have been deferred or cancelled.”

Simultaneously, Qatar, which accounts for 75 percent of Bangladesh’s LNG imports, has suspended production and shipments. Deep LNG dependence is driving fiscal distress across the power sector.

Six out of seven LNG cargoes scheduled for April in the import plan of the state-owned Petrobangla -- which is mandated to manage oil, gas and other mineral resources -- are expected to pass through the strait. Delivery of half the remaining cargoes is uncertain, according to reports.

David Hasanat, president of the Bangladesh Independent Power Producers’ Association, highlighted the scale of the generation deficit, noting, “23 percent of Bangladesh’s power plants are inoperable due to gas shortages.”

The acute shortages are fracturing the domestic industry. After the shutdown of four fertiliser factories, the country’s vital garment export sector is also taking a direct hit.

Mahmud Hasan Khan, president of the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association, said, “Power cuts have increased to up to five hours a day since the war began, and diesel supplies are insufficient to run back-up generators.”

Despite these compounding emergencies, Bangladesh’s transition to clean energy remains stalled. The country needs to deploy 760 MW of renewable capacity annually to hit its 2030 targets, yet only 358 MW were in the construction pipeline as of February 2026.

International Energy Agency (IEA) data shows that renewables’ share of the energy mix has stagnated at around 2 percent between 2020 and 2023, with little increase in 2024.

According to the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), just 1,446.3 MW of capacity was added between December 2008 and December 2025.

Dhaka, meanwhile, is advancing 41 proposed new LNG power plants at an estimated cost of $50 billion. This would add 35 GW of capacity, tripling current capacity, and would be largely reliant on imported LNG.

“The funds spent absorbing volatile prices are a missed opportunity for Bangladesh to finance renewable energy, which would insulate the country from future crises,” the ZCA report argued.

Policy interventions could provide immediate relief. IEEFA analysis suggests that cutting import duties on solar panels and inverters could unlock crucial rooftop projects.

“A single 1 MW rooftop plant could save around $180,000 in imported fuel costs each year and insulate Bangladesh from a cycle of future fossil fuel price shocks,” the IEEFA said.

Despite a nationwide holiday for financial institutions, operations at the Chittagong Port Authority continued largely uninterrupted during the Eid break, handling over 2.5 million tonnes of cargo and nearly 55,000 TEUs of containers in seven days.

According to port data, a total of 2,508,614 tonnes of cargo was processed between 17 March and 23 March. Imports accounted for 2,361,786 tonnes, while exports stood at 146,828 tonnes.

Container throughput also remained strong, reaching 54,898 TEUs, including 28,961 TEUs of imports and 25,937 TEUs of exports.

Vessel traffic saw no major disruption during the extended holiday, with 64 ships berthing at the port – an average of more than nine vessels per day.

Daily activity peaked on 18 March, when the port handled 434,434 tonnes of cargo, the highest for the week. The same day also recorded the highest container throughput at 11,861 TEUs.

Operations slowed on Eid day, 21 March, when cargo handling dropped to 255,874 tonnes and container movement to just 962 TEUs, with only three vessels berthing, the lowest for the week.

Officials said the steady handling of cargo and containers during the holiday underscores the port's capacity to maintain essential services and keep supply chains functioning.

Syed Refayet Hamim, secretary and spokesperson for the port authority, said operations remained normal on most days except Eid, adding that special measures were taken to ensure uninterrupted supply.

He noted, however, that delivery operations were relatively slower due to transport workers being on holiday, but are expected to pick up as government and private offices reopen.

The Chittagong Port Authority typically keeps key operations running during major holidays to prevent congestion and ensure the timely delivery of essential imports and industrial raw materials.

India today (24 March) announced the restoration of full benefits for exporters under the Remission of Duties and Taxes on Exported Products (RoDTEP) scheme, amid the West Asia war's impact on Indian exports through higher shipping costs.

According to a Commerce Ministry statement, the restored rates will match those in effect on 22 February this year, reversing the 50% cut imposed a month ago.

The statement also added that the step is intended to provide timely support to Indian exporters facing increased freight costs and war-related trade risks arising from disruptions in the Gulf and the wider West Asia maritime corridor.

"Recent developments in West Asia have led to challenges in maritime logistics, including changes in routing and transit patterns, and these have had an impact on logistics costs and shipping schedules for export consignments moving to or through the region," the statement said.

It said the decision is aimed at sustaining India's export competitiveness in a challenging global environment.

MK Footwear PLC has signed a major export agreement with China-based Jinjiang Akia Sports Co Ltd aiming to boost its international business with an estimated annual export value of up to $10 million.

In a disclosure filed with the Dhaka Stock Exchange today (24 March), the SME-listed company said it entered into a manufacturing and supply agreement with the Chinese firm on 24 March. Under the deal, Jinjiang Akia Sports has committed to placing a minimum annual order of 1 million pairs of footwear, subject to mutually agreed designs and specifications.

The company expects the agreement to generate between $8 million and $10 million in export revenue annually, to be executed through regular purchase orders each contract year.

To meet the anticipated demand, MK Footwear will allocate dedicated production capacity for the buyer. The agreement also includes standard provisions covering quality assurance, production timelines, payment terms, and other commercial conditions.

Company officials said the deal is expected to significantly strengthen its export pipeline and support future business growth, provided that purchase orders are executed successfully and contractual obligations are met.

Following the announcement, MK Footwear's share price rose by 2% to Tk85.90 on the SME platform, reflecting positive investor sentiment.

The development comes amid improving financial performance for the company. In the fiscal year 2024–25, MK Footwear reported revenue of Tk78.79 crore, while net profit surged 116% to Tk8.76 crore.

However, a significant portion of the profit growth was driven by gains from stock market investments. The company earned Tk6.37 crore by selling shares of Legacy Footwear, which it had acquired earlier at a lower cost.

Earlier, MK Footwear declared a 12% cash dividend for shareholders other than sponsors and directors for the year ended 30 June 2025.

The pre-Eid optimism at the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) proved short-lived as the market witnessed a sharp downturn today, with investors rattled by rising global geopolitical tensions and their potential economic fallout at home.

Trading resumed after the weeklong holidays with heavy selling pressure dominating the session, as concerns over inflation, possible fuel price hikes, and energy supply disruptions linked to the ongoing Middle East crisis dampened sentiment.

The uncertainty triggered a broad-based decline across sectors, wiping out nearly Tk9,000 crore in market capitalisation in a single day – an indication of weakening investor confidence.

The benchmark DSEX index fell by 68 points, or 1.28%, to close at 5,284. The decline was even steeper among blue-chip stocks, with the DS30 index shedding 39 points, or 1.91%, to settle at 2,011. Market breadth remained decisively negative, with 243 issues declining against 121 gainers, while 27 stocks remained unchanged.

Despite the significant drop, trading activity was subdued. Daily turnover stood at Tk492 crore, reflecting a cautious stance among investors who appear to be adopting a wait-and-see approach amid persistent uncertainties.

Market analysts attributed the bearish trend largely to macroeconomic concerns exacerbated by global developments.

Analysts say the market's near-term direction will largely depend on developments in global energy markets and the government's ability to manage domestic inflationary pressures. Until greater clarity emerges, investors are likely to remain cautious, limiting fresh capital inflows into an already volatile market.

According to EBL Securities, the market slipped into negative territory from the opening bell as the initial festive enthusiasm quickly faded. The brokerage noted that fears of energy shortages and inflationary pressures stemming from the Middle East tensions overshadowed any positive sentiment.

Although the market attempted a modest recovery during mid-session trading, it failed to sustain momentum, closing firmly in the red.

A more detailed assessment by BRAC EPL Stock Brokerage highlighted the potential sectoral impact of escalating tensions involving the United States, Israel, and Iran. The report suggested that manufacturing, cement, and power sectors are likely to face immediate pressure due to their heavy reliance on imported fuel and raw materials.

These sectors are confronting a dual challenge. Rising global prices of furnace oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) are expected to squeeze profit margins, while the risk of industrial load-shedding and higher transportation costs – driven by a so-called "Gulf risk premium" – could disrupt production cycles.

Gulf risk premium refers to extra cost added to oil prices or shipping and insurance rates due to geopolitical tensions in the Gulf region. It reflects perceived risk of supply disruption from major producers such as Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq and Kuwait.

The BRAC EPL analysis also pointed out that export-oriented readymade garment (RMG) companies with strong financial positions may benefit marginally if they can position themselves as reliable suppliers amid global uncertainty. However, this advantage will depend on their ability to absorb higher freight and insurance costs without losing competitiveness.

In contrast, the banking and telecommunications sectors were identified as relatively resilient. Banks may benefit from increased trade finance activities and higher interest income, while telecom companies are often considered defensive investments during periods of restricted mobility. Nonetheless, these sectors were among the major contributors to Tuesday's decline.

Key index draggers included BRAC Bank, Robi Axiata, Grameenphone, Square Pharmaceuticals, Walton Hi-Tech Industries, and Islami Bank Bangladesh, all of which weighed heavily on the indices.

Sector-wise, the banking sector led turnover with a 15.5% share, followed by pharmaceuticals at 12.8% and engineering at 11.5%. Among individual stocks, ACME Pesticides Limited topped the turnover chart, alongside City Bank PLC and Sea Pearl Beach Resort and Spa Limited.

All major sectors ended in negative territory. The banking and telecommunications sectors recorded the steepest declines, each falling by 2.45%. Non-bank financial institutions dropped 1.88%, followed by food and allied at 1.18% and fuel and power at 1.14%.

Amid the widespread losses, the mutual fund sector emerged as a rare bright spot, posting a 6.55% gain. Several funds delivered strong returns, offering some relief to investors.

The bearish sentiment extended to the Chittagong Stock Exchange, where the CSCX index declined by 47 points to 9,118 and the CASPI fell by 75 points to 14,954. Turnover at the port city bourse remained modest at Tk18.79 crore.

Bangladesh's ambitions to enter the electric vehicle (EV) manufacturing space took a step forward as Runner Automobiles partnered with the Chinese BYD Company on a potential local production venture.

Shanat Datta, chief financial officer of Runner Automobiles, told The Business Standard that an agreement was signed on Tuesday (24 March) between the two companies in China. Under the agreement, Runner will conduct a feasibility study for the local production of all BYD EV and non-EV vehicles.

Earlier, the decision was approved at a Runner board meeting on 20 March, where the company authorised signing a master supply and manufacturing agreement with the Shenzhen-based EV giant. The collaboration is expected to pave the way for local vehicle production, technology transfer, and increased industrial capacity in Bangladesh.

Company officials said the initiative is still at an early stage. CFO Datta said a comprehensive feasibility study will determine key aspects such as investment size, funding sources, plant construction, implementation timeline, and partnership structure. A detailed plan is expected by April.

"Our main goal is to manufacture BYD-branded cars in the country," he said, adding that the company will design and develop the necessary factory infrastructure to support production, following the rules and regulations.

The move comes as Bangladesh maintains high import duties on vehicles, making locally assembled or manufactured cars significantly more competitive. Recent policy support has further strengthened the case for localisation.

In the 2025-26 fiscal year budget, the National Board of Revenue reduced the duty and tax burden to around 33% for locally produced electric or hybrid vehicles meeting certain investment and value-addition thresholds. In contrast, imported electric and plug-in hybrid cars currently face duties as high as 89%.

The government has also been actively promoting EV adoption, targeting a 30% electric vehicle market share by 2030. Incentives for battery technologies, including lithium and graphene, have been introduced to support this transition.

BYD is one of China's leading clean energy firms, known for EVs, batteries, and renewable solutions. Founded in 1994, it has grown into a global EV powerhouse, competing with companies like Tesla. BYD produces cars, buses, and trucks, while also manufacturing advanced lithium batteries.

The company is expanding rapidly across Asia, Europe, and Latin America, playing a key role in the global transition to sustainable transportation.

The announcement by Runner had an immediate impact on the stock market, with its share price rising 9.97% to Tk37.50 on the Dhaka Stock Exchange.

Industry insiders say Runner has been preparing for such a venture. In May 2025, the company acquired land in Sreepur, Magura, and near its existing facility in Bhaluka, Mymensingh, with plans to establish a vehicle manufacturing plant in collaboration with a foreign partner.

Runner already has experience in automotive production, having invested around Tk300 crore to manufacture Bajaj three-wheelers. It also markets a range of international brands, including Eicher trucks and buses, KTM motorcycles, and Vespa scooters, alongside its own two-wheeler line-up.

Despite its diversified portfolio, the company has faced profitability challenges. It reported a loss of Tk1.41 crore in the second quarter (October-December) of the current fiscal year, although overall first-half profits stood at Tk2.93 crore. Revenue during the July-December period rose 31% year-on-year to Tk592.18 crore, driven by strong growth in truck, pickup, and tractor sales.

Filling stations across the country received far less supplies than required as prolonged bank closures during Eid-ul-Fitr disrupted fuel distribution from depots, leaving motorists grappling with long queues and intermittent shortages.

Officials from Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation (BPC) and pump owners say the seven-day banking holiday from 17 to 23 March created a critical bottleneck in the fuel supply chain.

During the period, filling station owners were unable to issue pay orders – a prerequisite for lifting fuel from depots – effectively halting regular distribution.

Without access to banking services, dealers found themselves unable to procure fuel even as demand surged ahead of and during the Eid holidays.

While the government maintained that there was no actual shortage of fuel, pump owners said they were getting inadequate supplies, exposing them to chaotic scenes and even threats from frustrated customers.

Reports from major cities indicated that pumps were facing acute supply shortage of octane–- primarily used by cars and bikes.

BPC officials said supply disruptions were linked to delays in issuing pay orders, noting that in previous long holiday periods, authorities had instructed selected bank branches to remain open to facilitate emergency transactions for fuel dealers.

This time, however, the absence of such arrangements worsened the situation.

Compounding the problem, global supply uncertainties – particularly disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz over the Middle East war – have also affected external fuel sourcing.

Bangladesh meets its entire petrol demand from local processing of condensate, a gas by-product, while around 60-65% of octane demand is met domestically, with the remainder dependent on imports. The external disruptions prompted BPC to adopt a cautious approach in releasing fuel.

Despite the visible strain at retail points, Power, Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Iqbal Hasan Mahmud Tuku dismissed concerns of an actual shortage, attributing the current situation to panic buying.

"There is no shortage of fuel in the country," the minister said while speaking to reporters at the Secretariat in Dhaka yesterday. "However, people have started purchasing more than they actually need, causing filling stations to run out of stock earlier than usual."

However, pump owners paint a different picture, pointing to reduced allocations and logistical challenges. Nazmul Hoque, president of the Bangladesh Petrol Pump Owners Association, told TBS that many stations are receiving significantly less fuel than required.

"I am receiving half of what I demand. Panic buying and supply constraints have made the whole situation messy," said Nazmul, who operates Ramna Petrol Pump, adding that the bank closures further deepened the crisis by preventing the timely issuance of pay orders.

The situation appears particularly acute in Chattogram, where multiple filling stations reported sharp declines in supply, especially of octane.

At the Shamanta CNG filling station in the Chandgaon Bahir Signal area, monthly allocations dropped drastically. The station, which previously received eight fuel tankers per month from Jamuna Oil Company Limited, is now getting only one tanker per week.

"Our main crisis is the lack of normal oil supply from Jamuna," said station manager Hasan Tarek. "We are currently unable to supply octane. The stock we received before Eid ran out quickly, and supply has been suspended for three consecutive days."

Similar complaints were echoed at various other petrol pumps in the port city.

Meanwhile, the impact on commuters and drivers was severe. "No octane" signs were common at many stations, while others were rationing fuel.

Absar Hossain, a motorist waiting near the Gani Bakery area, described his ordeal: "I have been searching since last evening but couldn't find octane anywhere. Even when I did, they wouldn't give more than a small amount."

Ride-share driver Abdur Rahman said the shortage has directly affected his income during what should have been a peak earning period. "I had to stand in line for more than half an hour, and still couldn't get enough fuel to operate properly," he said.

A widespread shortage of petrol and octane disrupted fuel supply across the country. Reports from Rajshahi, Dinajpur, Bogura, Savar, and Ashulia revealed that most pumps remained closed.

Security fears

Meanwhile, the Bangladesh Petrol Pump Owners Association on Sunday warned that fuel stations across the country may shut down due to mounting security concerns and an ongoing fuel supply shortage.

The association said petrol pumps nationwide are facing a "critical situation" as the daily fuel allocation from companies is insufficient to meet growing consumer demand.

The organisation alleged that the issue of security in fuel marketing has been largely overlooked by the government and local administration, leading to increasing disorder at pump stations.

Citing recent incidents, the association said that despite having around 10,500 litres of petrol and an equal amount of octane at one pump ahead of Eid, and about 8,000 litres at another, the stock was depleted within a short period due to excessive pressure and chaotic situations.

Describing the situation as a form of "looting," the association claimed that some individuals are purchasing fuel multiple times a day and reselling it at higher prices.

In some cases, motorcyclists were reportedly refuelling up to 10 times daily, while others repeatedly returned with partially filled tanks, depriving genuine customers.

The association also alleged that organised groups have been forcibly opening pumps at night and taking fuel.

Referring to an incident in Thakurgaon, it said miscreants armed with sticks looted fuel during supply operations.

Gold prices steadied on Tuesday after ​falling nearly 2 percent earlier in the session, as investors weighed conflicting signals on ‌a potential de-escalation in the US-Israeli war on Iran, and its impact on the outlook for inflation and interest rates.

Spot gold was up 0.1 percent at $4,411.28 per ounce as of 1104 GMT, after falling to $4,097.99 per ​ounce in the previous session, its lowest since November 24.

US gold futures for April ​delivery added 0.1 percent to $4,412.70.

SOME STABILITY FOR NOW

“The market is in a wait-and-see position. Considering that oil prices are a bit lower, this is reducing these rate hike ​expectations somehow and that’s giving some stability to the gold price now,” said UBS analyst ​Giovanni Staunovo.

International Brent crude prices plunged 13 percent on Monday after Trump ordered a five-day delay to attacks on Iran’s power plants, but traded moderately higher on Tuesday as Iran denied it had talks with the ​United States to end the war in the Gulf.

The rise in energy prices caused by ​the war has increased inflation concerns and made higher interest rates globally more likely. While gold is ‌considered an inflation hedge, high interest rates reduce the non-yielding asset’s appeal, and the metal has fallen around 18 percent since the war began.

Iran launched waves of missiles at Israel on Tuesday, the Israeli military said.

San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly said on Monday that unless the Iran ​conflict is resolved quickly ​and the Fed can “look through” a temporary increase in oil prices, it is unclear what the central bank’s next move on interest rates will need to ​be.

However, analysts say there are broader factors that should still support gold ​prices this year.

“Structural drivers for the gold rally over the recent years, debt issues, political pressure on the Fed to cut rates, high inflation, low interest rates, and a weaker dollar, these factors are still ​there. Nothing has changed on that side,” Staunovo added.

Elsewhere, spot silver rose 0.9 percent to $69.77 per ounce. Spot platinum added 1.3 percent to $1,906.80 and palladium lost 1 percent to $1,419.25.

Oil rose on Tuesday as the world’s ‌biggest supply disruption persisted and as Iran denied it had talks with the US to end the war in the Gulf, contradicting US President Donald Trump who said a deal could be reached soon.

Crude futures ​had dropped more than 10 percent on Monday, after Trump ordered a five-day ​delay to attacks on Iran’s power plants, saying the US had talks with unnamed Iranian officials that produced “major points of agreement”.

Brent futures rose $1.83, or 1.8 percent, to $101.77 ​a barrel at 1130 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbed $2.21, or 2.5 percent, to $90.34.

The war ​has all but halted shipments of about one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas through the Strait of Hormuz, causing what the International Energy Agency has called the biggest-ever oil supply disruption.

“The reality ​on the ground is unchanged,” said Nikos Tzabouras, analyst at Jefferies-owned Tradu.com. “The Strait of ​Hormuz remains effectively closed and supply disruptions linger, tightening the market.”

Iran on Tuesday sent waves of missiles ‌into Israel. Three senior Israeli officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Trump appeared determined to reach a deal, but that they thought it highly unlikely that Iran would agree to US demands in any new round of negotiations.

“The Iran conflict sees tentative de-escalation, but unresolved ​risks remain around Hormuz,” ​BCA Research said in a report. “Given continued attack risks and headline volatility, it remains too early to position aggressively for lower oil prices.”

If the strait ​remains effectively shut until the end of April, Brent could still ​reach $150 a ⁠barrel, Macquarie said. That would exceed the all-time high of $147 set in 2008.

In the latest attacks on energy infrastructure across the region, a gas company office and a pressure-reduction station ⁠were ​hit in the Iranian city of Isfahan, while a ​projectile struck a gas pipeline feeding a power station in Khorramshahr, Iran’s Fars news agency reported.