Dhaka Stock Exchange witnessed a second consecutive session of losses today (30 March) as persistent sell-offs, fueled by rising US-Israeli tensions over Iran, dragged the benchmark index down. The DSEX fell 41 points to close at 5,230.

Despite declining prices for 59% of listed stocks, turnover slightly increased by 2.69% to Tk663.87 crore, according to DSE data. The other key indices also ended lower, with the DSES down 5 points to 1,061 and the blue-chip DS30 falling 19 points to 1,979.

Among traded stocks, 111 advanced, 231 declined, and 51 remained unchanged.

Trading opened on a positive note at 10 am but lasted only seven minutes before selling pressure gripped the market, pushing indices into the red. Selling intensified in the latter part of the session, keeping stocks under pressure throughout the day.

EBL Securities said in its daily report that investor sentiment remained cautious amid ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a nationwide fuel shortage.

"The market continued its losing streak for the second consecutive session, as investors shifted focus from large-cap stocks to momentum-driven speculative scrips," the report said. "Despite a firm start, broad-based selling emerged midway through the session, intensifying toward the close and dragging the index lower."

On the sectoral front, Pharma stocks accounted for the highest share of turnover at 18.2%, followed by Engineering at 11.7% and Banks at 9.7%.

Among gainers, Hakkani Pulp and Paper led with a 9.92% rise to Tk88.6, followed by Intech Ltd with a 9.41% gain to Tk43 and IFIC First Mutual Fund up 7.69% to Tk4.2.

Prime Finance was the top loser, slipping 9.25% to Tk4.9, followed by FAS Finance down 8.57% to Tk3.2 and Fareast Finance falling 8.33% to Tk3.3.

The port city bourse, Chittagong Stock Exchange, also ended in negative territory. Its CSCX and CASPI fell by 7.1 points and 17.7 points, respectively

City Sugar Industries Limited, a concern of City Group, has received regulatory approval to raise Tk1,300 crore through a three-year zero-coupon bond.

The approval was granted by the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) at a meeting today (30 March), according to a press release.

The proposed bond will be secured and mortgage-backed, non-convertible, and fully redeemable, with an estimated discount rate of around 13.50%. Under the structure, the company will provide land as collateral, offering enhanced security to investors.

The bond will be issued through private placement to corporate entities, high-net-worth individuals, banks, financial institutions, and insurance companies. Each unit of the bond will carry a face value of Tk13 lakh.

Officials said the proceeds from the bond issuance will be used to repay existing liabilities with various banks and financial institutions, helping the company restructure its debt and improve financial stability.

BRAC EPL Investments Limited has been appointed as the trustee of the bond, while BRAC Bank will act as the arranger. The bond is also expected to be listed on the Alternative Trading Board, providing a platform for secondary market trading.

Syed Rashed Hussain, chief executive officer of BRAC EPL Investments, said the mortgage-backed nature of the bond ensures a higher level of security for investors.

He explained that the company's land will be transferred under the trustee as collateral, and in case of default, the trustee will have the authority to liquidate the assets to repay investors.

He added that this is the first instance of a mortgage-backed bond issuance in Bangladesh, setting a precedent in the local capital market and potentially opening the door for similar structured financing instruments in the future.

Earlier, City Auto Rice and Dal Mills Limited, another concern of City Group, issued a Tk350 crore bond for repaying the debt.

Market analysts believe the move reflects a growing trend among corporates to explore alternative financing options beyond traditional bank loans, while also offering investors more secure investment avenues.

The securities regulator has approved a proposal from non-listed Akij Food & Beverage Ltd to raise Tk 5 billion by issuing zero-coupon bonds, a move that reflects the growing reliance of large corporations on alternative financing instruments.Financial literacy course

According to the regulatory approval, the bond will be unsecured, non-convertible, and fully redeemable. Unlike conventional bonds, this instrument does not offer periodic interest payments. Instead, the bond is issued at a discounted price and redeemed at full face value upon maturity, allowing investors to earn a fixed return.

The approval came at a meeting of the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) last week, presided over by its Chairman Khondoker Rashed Maqsood.

The tenure of the bond will range from six months to 60 months, providing flexibility for investors with varying investment horizons.

The bond units will be issued through private placement to banks, non-bank financial institutions, insurance companies, institutional investors, and high net-worth individuals. Each unit will carry a face value of Tk 1 million, effectively limiting participation to large-scale investors.

Sena Insurance has been appointed trustee, responsible for safeguarding investors' interests and ensuring regulatory compliance, while North Star Investments (BD) will act as the fund manager.Bangladesh market analysis

Market insiders said amid tighter banking liquidity and relatively high borrowing costs, corporations are actively diversifying funding sources. Structured instruments such as zero-coupon bonds allow issuers to better align repayment obligations with long-term revenue generation.

The proceeds from the issuance are expected to support the company's expansion and operational financing needs, although detailed utilisation plans were not disclosed. This would be a cost-efficient way to fund expansion without immediate interest servicing burdens.

Founded in 2006, Akij Food & Beverage has grown into one of the country's leading beverage manufacturers. Its portfolio includes several well-known brands such as Mojo, Frutika, and Speed, which enjoy a strong market presence across segments.

The interim government's reliance on the banking sector surged significantly to meet development project costs and other expenditures, with borrowing from internal banks reaching over Tk73,000 crore in the first seven months of the current fiscal year, FY2025-26.

According to a report from Bangladesh Bank, 81% of the government's total domestic and foreign loans between July and January were sourced from the internal banking system. The total net borrowing from both local and international sources stood at approximately Tk90,000 crore during this period.

Economists warn that excessive government borrowing from banks can crowd out the private sector, discouraging investment and creating pressure for interest rate hikes. This comes at a time when private sector credit flow has already hit a record low due to political instability ahead of the 13th national elections.

Central bank officials identified several factors behind the rapid increase in bank loans. A primary reason is the government's capital support for the "Combined Islamic Bank," formed by merging five banks. In the first week of last December, the government injected approximately Tk 20,000 crore into the bank, a large portion of which was financed through bank borrowing.

Additionally, while revenue collection fell short of targets in the first half of the fiscal year, operating expenses rose significantly, forcing the interim government to lean more heavily on the banking sector.

The government proposed a budget of Tk7.90 lakh crore for the FY2025-26, with an overall deficit (including grants) of Tk2.21 lakh crore, or 3.5% of GDP. To bridge this gap, the government planned to borrow Tk1.25 lakh crore from domestic sources, including Tk1.04 lakh crore from the banking system and Tk21,000 crore from non-banking sources.

However, data shows a sharp shift in borrowing patterns.

Net borrowing reached Tk73,035 crore from July to January, nearly an eight-fold increase compared to Tk9,442 crore during the same period of the previous fiscal year.

Borrowing from non-banking sources plummeted to Tk7,216 crore, down from Tk25,864 crore in the previous year.

The total stock of domestic debt stood at Tk10.37 lakh crore as of January 2025, an increase of over Tk1.51 lakh crore within a single year.

The report also highlighted a dwindling contribution from external sources. In the first seven months of FY2025-26, net foreign borrowing amounted to only Tk9,832 crore, accounting for less than 11% of total loans.

In contrast, the government had secured approximately Tk27,964 crore from foreign sources during the same period in the previous fiscal year.

Experts emphasised the need for a balanced debt management strategy to attract private investment and ensure long-term economic stability.

The Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission has approved the issuance of an Orange bond, the first of its kind in the country, by SAJIDA Foundation to raise Tk 158.5 crore to finance women's economic empowerment and accelerate progress towards gender equality.

The zero-coupon bond, a debt that pays no interest but is sold at a deep discount, marks a major milestone in Bangladesh’s capital market evolution, said a press release by BRAC EPL Investments Ltd.

SAJIDA Foundation partnered with BRAC EPL Investments Ltd and Impact Investment Exchange (IIX), the Singapore-based global impact investing platform, to issue the Orange bond, a specialised investment tool designed to raise money specifically for empowering women, girls, and gender minorities while tackling climate change.

“The pioneering bond supports the transition toward more inclusive, resilient, and capital market-driven development finance solutions, and contributes to broader efforts to develop the impact investment ecosystem in Bangladesh,” said the press release.

BRAC EPL Investments Ltd said Bangladesh’s bond market has long been dominated by government securities and bank subordinated debt. This transaction breaks that mould by introducing thematic, impact-linked fixed income as a new asset class.

The bond offers investors tax-exempt financial returns while enabling measurable social impact, particularly in supporting women and women-led businesses.

Some 48 percent of the proceeds will be allocated to food security and agriculture, 32 percent to women-led SMEs, and 20 percent will be used for climate-resilient housing across 36 districts.

“Impact will be tracked through independently verified annual reports aligned with international standards, ensuring transparency and tangible benefits for women’s economic empowerment.”

Minister for Power, Energy and Mineral Resources Iqbal Hasan Mahmud Tuku stated in a parliamentary session today (30 March) under Rule 300 that the government has taken the initiative to import 50,000 tonnes of octane in April.

Additionally, the government announced that another 30,000 tonnes of octane will be supplied from domestic sources.

As a result, even though the monthly demand is 35,000 tonnes, the current management will ensure an additional reserve for at least two months.

The minister said that although global instability – particularly tensions in the Middle East – has created pressure on the global fuel supply, Bangladesh has kept the situation under control through advanced preparation, consistent imports and effective management.

The minister noted that despite the increase in prices on the international market, fuel prices have not been raised domestically.
Keeping fuel prices stable a major success of govt: Salahuddin

Currently, while the selling price of diesel is Tk100 per litre, the actual cost is approximately Tk198. The government is also providing subsidies for octane.

The minister stated that for the March-June quarter, a total subsidy of Tk15,409 crore will be required for diesel, and Tk636 crore for octane, totalling Tk16,045 crore.

"Furthermore, for LNG imports through Petrobangla, a subsidy of Tk15,077 crore will be required for the April-June quarter. This government believes the state's primary responsibility is to stand by the people during crises and ensure their protection," he added.
What’s driving our hoarding instinct in the ongoing fuel crisis?

The minister said, "I want to reassure the nation through this parliament that fuel prices have not been increased in the country despite the foreign crisis. Many countries around the world have had to adjust fuel prices repeatedly. Even in many neighbouring countries, prices have increased by more than 25%."

He emphasised that the Bangladesh government has prioritised the public interest and kept prices stable, because if fuel prices rise, the cost of agricultural production, transport and the general public's cost of living increases manifold.

The discussion on hiking fuel prices comes in the face of a global crisis stemming from the Middle East war. In order to cope with energy shortages, prices have increased in many neighbouring countries, and some countries have even shut down educational institutions due to energy shortages.

Earlier, Home Minister Salahuddin Ahmed said keeping fuel prices unchanged in the country, despite their rise in international markets following the Middle East war, was a major success of the government.

Asian stock markets fell while oil prices surged today (31 March) as the ongoing war involving Iran continued to rattle global markets and drive up energy costs.

South Korea's benchmark Kospi index dropped sharply by 3.82%, losing more than 200 points to stand at 5,075.92 around 01:00 GMT.

Japan's Nikkei 225 also declined 2.24% in early trading before recovering slightly, though it remained down 0.73%, or 377 points, at 51,507.99.

China's FTSE China A50 Index edged lower as well, slipping between five and 10 points, or less than 0.07%, to hover around 14,570.

Meanwhile, oil prices climbed amid supply concerns linked to the conflict.

The US benchmark West Texas Intermediate rose 1.08% to $103.99 per barrel, crossing the $100 mark for the first time since the war began. International benchmark Brent Crude jumped 2.23% to reach $109.78 per barrel.

Rising crude prices have translated into higher fuel costs in the United States.

The average retail gasoline price has exceeded $4 per gallon for the first time in more than three years, according to data cited by Reuters from fuel tracking service GasBuddy.

Since the US-Israel war involving Iran began on February 28, gasoline prices across the US have surged by about $1.06 per gallon, marking a 36% increase.

The last time prices reached the $4 threshold was in August 2022, following the outbreak of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

During his 2022 campaign to return to the White House, Donald Trump had pledged to cut energy costs and boost domestic oil and gas production, a promise now facing renewed scrutiny amid the latest price spike.

Oil companies will have to look further afield for new fossil fuel resources now that the Iran war has dented the investment allure of the energy-rich Middle East. Higher oil prices will give them that chance.

Major international oil companies, including Exxon Mobil, Chevron, TotalEnergies, Shell and BP, have long been drawn to the Middle ​East by its vast resources, stable fiscal terms and, until recently, relative political stability. The region accounts for roughly a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) production.

That reputation, built painstakingly ‌over decades even as wars raged in Iraq and Yemen, has now been shattered by the US-Israeli war with Iran.

Now in its fifth week, the conflict has put energy infrastructure squarely in the crosshairs. Dozens of facilities across the Gulf have been damaged, including Qatar’s giant LNG hub and several major oil refineries.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz - through which roughly 20 percent of the world’s oil and gas normally flows - has forced producers to shut oilfields, costing the region an estimated $1 billion a day in lost export revenues, according ​to Reuters calculations based on pre‑war prices.

The longer‑term costs will be far higher. Restarting operations and repairing damaged facilities will likely run into the tens of billions of dollars - if not far ​more. QatarEnergy said an Iranian missile strike on February 18 could cost it about $20 billion a year in lost revenue and take up to five years to repair.

But no amount of money may be able to repair the region’s reputational damage – at least not in the short term – and that is likely to rapidly reshape Western energy majors’ upstream strategies.

The ​Middle East will clearly remain a major source of oil and gas for decades. It holds about half of the world’s proven oil reserves and 40 percent of gas reserves. Western companies are thus unlikely to abandon ​it altogether.

It currently makes up a substantial portion of many majors’ portfolios, including 41 percent of Exxon’s reserves, 42 percent of TotalEnergies’ and a quarter of Shell’s, according to consultancy Welligence. The region attracted around $130 billion in oil and gas investment in 2025, roughly 15 percent of the global total, according to the International Energy Agency.

But unless the Iran war ends with a new, non-belligerent government sitting in Tehran - an outcome that currently appears remote - the conflict will leave deep scars. Uncertainty over the safety of transit ​through Hormuz and the higher risk of conflagration is apt to sharply boost the cost of deploying staff, equipment, insurance and capital in the Middle East, making the region a lot less attractive for exploration.

This ​rising risk premium in the world’s largest energy-producing region is already being reflected in long-term oil prices.

Since the eve of the conflict, the average Brent crude price expected in 2030 has jumped about 10 percent to roughly $72 a barrel. Once the ‌full extent of the damage from the war is known, that could rise even further.

A structurally higher oil price would change the upstream calculus for the world’s energy giants.

This shift comes as the industry’s appetite for new oil and gas investment has been strengthening. Over the past year, oil companies have significantly increased spending on exploration worldwide - from West Africa and the eastern Mediterranean to Brazil and Southeast Asia.

That was a sharp break from the prior decade, when shareholder pressure and fears of a rapid demand decline driven by the energy transition reduced upstream investment. Today, companies – spurred by new outlooks suggesting fossil fuel demand won’t peak until next decade – are ​increasingly confident that more supply will be needed through ​the end of the decade.

Of course, exploration remains ⁠a high‑risk, high‑reward business requiring heavy upfront investment. Projects can also often take more than a decade to progress from the first drilling campaign to production.

Still, higher long-term prices would expand the pool of economically viable reserves worldwide. And, importantly, the spiking risk premium in the Middle East is likely to push more ​capital toward regions previously deemed more risky or marginal.

Venezuela offers a case in point. Its oil industry reopened to Western companies after the US deposed President Nicolas ​Maduro in January, yet investment in ⁠the country has remained tepid given political uncertainty and concerns over the sector’s dilapidated infrastructure.

In a more bullish price environment, however, Venezuela’s vast resources could suddenly appear more appealing – particularly if the relative geopolitical risk gap between Venezuela and the Gulf shrinks.

The energy industry has been through such a geographic reshuffle before. After 2022, the Middle East gained importance when Western companies were forced to exit Russia following Moscow’s full‑scale invasion of Ukraine.

The Iran war now threatens to ⁠trigger another realignment - ​pushing companies to cast their investment nets wider than they have in years. But if the response this time around is ​to move into riskier or costlier areas, the floor on energy prices is likely going up.

Unpredictable tax practices, weak enforcement, and conflicting regulatory directives continue to raise costs and delay operations for businesses, Japanese investors said yesterday.

Speaking at an event at The Westin Dhaka, marking the Japan Business Day, they argued that without policy continuity, transparent administration, and reliable dispute resolution, long-term investment decisions remain at risk. The programme was jointly organised by the Embassy of Japan, Bangladesh and Japan External Trade Organisation (Jetro).

“Clear, consistent and fairly applied rules are vital to improve Bangladesh’s investment climate. Uncertainty often outweighs product competitiveness,” said Manabu Sugawara, president of Japanese Commerce and Industry Association in Dhaka (JCIAD), commonly known as Shoo-Koo-Kai.

He identified tax reform as a priority, calling for simpler procedures, clearer interpretations and reduced discretionary practices, alongside faster services and reliable dispute resolution.

Sugawara highlighted poor coordination among government agencies, saying conflicting directives create delays and raise costs for investors.

He also urged a functional one-stop service with fully digital, streamlined and time-bound approvals, licensing and renewals.

Pointing to persistent visa and permit delays, he said such bottlenecks must be resolved quickly.

Hiroshi Uegaki, country representative of Mitsubishi Corporation, one of Japan’s corporate giants, called for foundational reforms to strengthen Bangladesh’s investment climate for Japanese firms.

He stressed improving data management, business efficiency and digitalisation aligned with international standards to reduce delays.

Uegaki highlighted the importance of economic partnership agreements (EPAs) to ease import-export processes and support smoother operations.

Policy consistency, he added, remains critical to ensure long-term investor confidence and signal a stable, business-friendly environment.

Tareq Rafi Bhuiyan, president of the Japan-Bangladesh Chamber of Commerce and Industry, said the EPA would ensure continued market access to Japan and strengthen investor confidence through a rules-based framework.

The Bangladesh–Japan EPA is being seen as critical to sustaining trade and investment as Bangladesh prepares for LDC graduation, he said. “Investors value predictability and long-term trust,” he noted, adding that reforms must align with EPA commitments to attract sustained Japanese investment.

Also speaking at the event, Rashed Al Mahmud Titumir, the prime minister’s adviser on finance and planning, pointed out priorities to deepen Bangladesh–Japan economic ties and shift focus from aid to investment-led growth.

He said Bangladesh wants higher Japanese investment to match global averages, with a stronger emphasis on manufacturing to create sustainable jobs.

He also stressed the need for greater technology transfer through joint ventures, enabling long-term industrial capacity and competitiveness. Titumir added that the government is committed to policy reforms, including deregulation, stronger market-based oversight, and improved contract enforcement to build investor confidence.

Ashik Chowdhury, executive chairman of the Bangladesh Investment Development Authority (Bida), outlined a set of reforms aimed at attracting sustained foreign investment, particularly from Japanese firms.

He said improving the business climate would require making tax administration more transparent and efficient, reducing the burden of unpredictable enforcement. He also stressed the need for stronger coordination among government agencies to avoid conflicting directives that often delay operations.

Chowdhury called for a fully functional “one-stop service” to streamline licensing through digitalisation and ensure visa processing within a predictable timeframe. Policy consistency, he added, remains crucial for long-term corporate planning and boosting investor confidence.

Japanese Ambassador to Bangladesh Shinichi Saida described the recently signed bilateral EPA as a landmark step, urging Bangladesh to view it through a long-term lens rather than immediate gains.

He said the deal offers legal certainty for investors and reinforces a rules-based trade environment at a time of global uncertainty.

Meanwhile, presenting the findings of a survey on business conditions of Japanese firms, Kazuiki Kataoka, country representative of Jetro, said Bangladesh is emerging as a promising frontier for Japanese businesses, with stronger profit expectations and growing interest in expansion.

He noted that 56.9 percent of Japanese firms in Bangladesh plan to expand operations, driven largely by the country’s rising domestic market.

He also pointed to administrative inefficiencies and policy uncertainty as major risks, stressing that improving these areas could unlock greater foreign investment.

Syed Nasim Manzur, managing director of Apex Footwear Limited, said Bangladesh should position itself as a manufacturing hub, exporting to Japan and integrating into global value chains.

Leveraging the EPA, he added, could deepen long-term partnerships and boost trade and services.

M Masrur Reaz, chairman and CEO of Policy Exchange of Bangladesh (PEB), said Bangladesh’s prospects under the proposed economic partnership with Japan remain promising, but some weaknesses could blunt its gains.

He said weak inter-agency collaboration, fragmented public-private dialogue, and limited private-sector linkages undermine policy execution and investment climate reforms.

The war in Iran has sparked chaos across financial markets, leaving some investors and market makers reluctant to take on risk, making trading harder and costlier - a scenario regulators watch closely.

None of the world's biggest markets, from US Treasuries, to gold, to currencies have been spared, investors and traders said. In Europe, hedge funds, which now dominate bond trading, added to those dynamics as they rapidly unwound a number of bets this month.

Investors say they have at times struggled to get prices, or execute trades over the past four weeks, as market makers fear being stuck with large positions that could quickly become unprofitable.

"When we try to trade, it takes longer to trade. (The market makers) want us to be more patient, cut the trades into smaller sizes," Rajeev De Mello, chief investment officer at GAMA Asset Management, said, adding gaps had widened between the price at which market makers would buy an asset and at which they would sell it. "What that has as a consequence is that everybody's reduced the sizes of their positions."

Various measures of volatility have soared to levels seen in previous market crises, including those for stocks, bonds, oil and gold.

Cracks have emerged even in the usually deep and liquid government bond markets, a cornerstone of global finance that has been hit hard as inflation risks spook investors.

The difference between bid and ask prices on newly issued two-year US Treasuries, a key measure of market depth and transaction cost for the most widely traded securities, has meanwhile widened roughly 27% in March, compared with February levels, according to Morgan Stanley, suggesting dealers are charging a higher premium to take on risk.

Pain in futures market

To be sure, the latest symptoms of market stress are not uncommon during bouts of market turmoil, such as during US President Donald Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs last April and the 2020 COVID pandemic.

But this round of volatility has arrived at a time when markets had been in an expansive mood, as investors rode a runaway rally across asset classes, suggesting a deeper correction may materialise if the war drags on and liquidity evaporates.

In Europe, the pain has been particularly stark in the futures market for short-term interest rates, where traders rapidly priced steep central bank rate hikes.

Liquidity became "severely diminished" at one point, operating at 10% of usual levels, Morgan Stanley's co-head of EMEA rates Daniel Aksan said.

"The (illiquidity, price moves) reminded me of the COVID days," he said.

Three European financial regulators on Friday said ongoing geopolitical tensions, namely the war in the Middle East, pose significant risks to the global financial landscape through higher energy prices, potential inflationary pressures and weaker economic growth. They reiterated their warning about the impact of volatility on liquidity and the risk of sudden price swings.

Protecting bottom lines

Trading has thus far remained orderly, but buyers are becoming increasingly scarce as investors rush to de-risk and move into cash, leaving dealers hesitant in turn.

"Firms have lost so much money - whether it's sell-side or buy-side - that liquidity is suffering because you don't have the players," said Tom di Galoma, managing director of global rates trading at broker-dealer Mischler Financial, referring to the US Treasury market.

While trading volumes in Treasuries have surged, analysts say some of these trades have been done out of necessity, not by choice.

"With a wider bid-ask spread, it is more expensive to put on a trade and would be less attractive for people to enter into trades, but the fact that you still see really high volumes suggest that some of these trades were unwinds, or stop-outs," said Morgan Stanley US rates strategist Eli Carter.

Hedge funds in europe

The particularly sharp selloff in European bonds has also served as an example of the impact hedge funds may have on that market at times of stress, a risk the Bank of England in particular has flagged as their footprint has grown rapidly in recent years.

Hedge funds now make up over 50% of trading volumes in Britain's and euro zone government bond markets, according to the latest Tradeweb data from 2025.

While their presence in the bond markets provides liquidity in good times, many had piled into the same trades, some of which quickly proved loss-making.

Hedge funds took steep losses on betting the BoE would cut rates, three hedge fund investment sources said. They also took hits on trades that bet on steeper European yield curves and on trades that assumed the gap between Italian and German bond yields would stay narrow, Credit Agricole's head of European government bond trading Bruno Benchimol said.

As they all unwound similar positions at the same time, that pushed bond dealers to widen bid-ask spreads, Benchimol added.

When hedge funds all de-risk at the same time "it exacerbates volatility," said Morgan Stanley's Aksan. At other times, they took positions that helped dampen volatility, he said.

Staying in the market

But market makers still have pressure to win business even as clients reduce the frequency and size of trades.

Sagar Sambrani, a senior FX options trader at Nomura, said pricing for larger ticket orders had widened versus normal market conditions to account for market risk. But, "counter-intuitively, the pricing on smaller tickets is tighter than in regular conditions as market makers strive harder to capture the reducing client flows," Sambrani said.

But sometimes this is not possible.

In the gold market, which is highly sensitive to interest rates, Mukesh Dave, chief investment officer at Aravali Asset Management, a global arbitrage fund, said there were days when market makers were absent altogether, indicating an unwillingness to transact.

The price of normally safe-haven gold plunged this month after a record rally in 2025.

"They don't want to make money at the moment, they don't want to lose money by being in the market. If given a choice, they don't want to be in the market," Dave said.

Oil prices extended gains on Monday, with Brent headed for a record monthly rise, after Yemeni Houthis launched their first attacks on Israel over the weekend, widening the US-Israel war with Iran in the Middle East.

Brent crude futures jumped $2.43, or 2.16%, to $115 a barrel by 0342 GMT after settling 4.2% higher on Friday.

US West Texas Intermediate was at $101.50 a barrel, up $1.86, or 1.87%, following a 5.5% gain in the previous session.

"The market has all but discounted the prospect of a negotiated end to the war, Trump's claims of ongoing 'direct and indirect' talks with Iran notwithstanding, and is bracing for a sharp escalation in military hostilities, which is a bullish signal for crude, with huge uncertainties on the timing and nature of the outcome," said Vandana Hari, founder of oil market analysis provider Vanda Insights.

US President Donald Trump said the US and Iran have been meeting "directly and indirectly" and that Iran's new leaders have been "very reasonable", as more US troops arrived in the region, while the Israeli military said on Monday it is attacking the Iranian government's infrastructure throughout Tehran.

Brent has soared 59% this month, the steepest monthly jump, exceeding gains seen during the 1990 Gulf War, after the Iran conflict effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, a conduit for a fifth of the world's oil and gas supplies.

The war, launched on 28 February with US and Israeli strikes on Iran, has spread across the Middle East, with Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis on Saturday launching their first attacks on Israel since the start of the conflict, raising concern about shipping lanes around the Arabian Peninsula and the Red Sea.

"The conflict is no longer concentrated in the Persian Gulf and around the Strait of Hormuz, but now extends into the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb — one of the world's most crucial chokepoints for crude and refined product flows," JP Morgan analysts led by Natasha Kaneva said in a note.

Saudi crude exports re-directed from the Strait of Hormuz to the Yanbu port in the Red Sea reached 4.658 million barrels per day last week, data from analytics firm Kpler showed.

If exports from Yanbu were disrupted, Saudi oil would need to pivot towards Egypt's Suez-Mediterranean (SUMED) pipeline to the Mediterranean, JP Morgan analysts said.

Attacks in the region escalated over the weekend and damaged Oman's Salalah terminal despite efforts to start ceasefire talks.

Iran said it was ready to respond to a US ground attack, accusing Washington on Sunday of preparing a land assault even as it sought negotiations.

Pakistan's Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar said they had covered possible ways to bring an early and permanent end to the war in the region as well as potential US-Iran talks in Islamabad.

South Korea's March exports probably rose at the strongest pace in nearly five years on a boom in chip demand fuelled by artificial intelligence investment, although the Iran war was set to drive up imports and inflation, a Reuters poll showed on Monday.

Exports from Asia's fourth-largest economy, a bellwether for global trade, were projected to have risen 44.9% from a year earlier, according to a median forecast of 11 economists.

That would be faster than the 28.7% rise in February and the strongest since May 2021. It would also mark the 10th consecutive month of year-on-year gains.

"Semiconductor prices are continuing to rise sharply on robust demand for memory chips," said Chun Kyu-yeon, an economist at Hana Securities, expecting this year's trade surpluses at record levels.

In the first 20 days of this month, exports rose 50.4%, as semiconductor sales surged 163.9%. Shipments to the US and China rose 57.8% and 69.0%, respectively, while those to the European Union were up 6.6%.

"However, due to the impact of high oil prices, import growth will also be higher than previously projected," said Park Sang-hyun, an economist at iM Securities. "It is expected that there will be some disruption to shipments to the Middle East."

In Monday's monthly survey, imports were forecast to have risen 18.0% in March from a year earlier, after growing 7.5% in February. That would mark the biggest jump since September 2022.

The median forecast for the country's monthly trade balance stood at $21.2 billion, wider than $15.4 billion in the previous month and a record high.

Consumer inflation probably accelerated in March to 2.4%, the fastest pace in four months. Inflation was 2.0% in February.

South Korea is scheduled to report trade figures for March on Wednesday, 1 April, at 9 am (0000 GMT).

Bangladesh’s exports have become a powerhouse for its economy, increasing by some $10 billion over the last six years. But when it comes to its immediate South Asian neighbours, the outward trade has remained trapped in a narrow range, failing to grow by even a billion dollars throughout.

Total global export earnings reached $43.6 billion in fiscal year 2024-25 (FY25), up from $33 billion six years ago, Bangladesh Bank (BB) data shows.

Meanwhile, exports to seven member countries of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (Saarc) stood at just $1.9 billion in FY25, a mere 4.4 percent of the total. The figure was $1.4 billion in FY19.

A recent report by the central bank on the country’s economic engagement points out that while Bangladesh’s relationships with major partners in the European Union, the United States and the Middle East are well documented, “its economic linkages within Saarc remain surprisingly underexplored yet vitally important.”

Experts identify persistent non-tariff barriers, limited connectivity, logistical bottlenecks and weak regional cooperation frameworks as major constraints to expansion.

ONE MARKET, ONE BASKET

Even within Saarc, the trade is heavily concentrated, with India alone absorbing nearly 89 percent of Bangladesh’s regional exports, making the bloc effectively a one-market story.

Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Nepal and Bhutan remain peripheral, their combined share too thin to move the needle. While exports to Pakistan and Sri Lanka have shown some improvement, their scale remains too small to shift the overall trajectory. Nepal, meanwhile, has seen declining exports.

The concentration poses a huge risk – any policy shift or demand shock in New Delhi ripples immediately through Bangladesh’s entire regional trade position.

The export basket is equally narrow, dominated by ready-made garments, pharmaceuticals and leather goods.

The central bank notes that this lack of diversification limits growth prospects, especially in markets where production structures are similar and competition is high. Unlike Bangladesh’s global trade, which has gradually moved into higher-value segments, regional exports have seen little structural transformation.

The limitations of regional exports are also evident in the widening trade imbalance. Bangladesh bought $10.5 billion worth of goods from Saarc nations last fiscal year, more than five times what it sold, yielding a trade deficit of $8.6 billion.

India supplied over 90 percent of those imports, covering essential commodities and industrial inputs. Bangladesh is far more integrated with its neighbourhood as a buyer than as a seller.

THE ROADS NOT TAKEN

Policy experts point to infrastructure as the primary constraint. Except for India, Bangladesh has no direct land links with its South Asian neighbours, pointed out Khandker Golam Moazzem of the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD). This makes trade with the neighbours less lucrative.

For instance, he said, “Exporting to Hong Kong can sometimes cost less than trading with India, a reflection of poor logistics, inadequate land ports and inefficient customs systems.”

Outdated Safta (South Asian Free Trade Area) negative lists and persistent non-tariff barriers add further friction, he added.

Moazzem stressed the need for improved port facilities, modernised land ports and digitalised one-stop border services. He also highlighted the importance of sub-regional initiatives like BBIN and BIMSTEC to enhance connectivity through India.

Ahsan Khan Chowdhury, chairman of Pran-RFL Group, which exports nearly $100 million annually to India, identified demand mapping in each market as a prerequisite for expansion. “Saarc countries hold significant trade potential, but identifying demand in each market remains crucial for expansion.”

He flagged the “northeastern Indian states as a particular opportunity” for Bangladesh, while noting that trade became harder to sustain during the interim government period due to strained bilateral ties.

Chowdhury also called for upgrading Bangladesh’s standards testing infrastructure to meet Indian requirements and proposed an ASEAN-style duty-free framework for the bloc.

At the same time, he emphasised the need to negotiate with India to reduce trade barriers and improve port efficiency.

The contrast with ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) -- which has built integrated regional value chains sustaining high intra-regional volumes – illustrates the scale of South Asia’s failure to deepen economic ties.

Sub-regional frameworks such as Bangladesh-Bhutan-India-Nepal (BBIN) initiative and Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (Bimstec) offer a partial path forward, but analysts say physical connectivity remains the essential precondition for any meaningful expansion.

Bangladesh is eyeing an additional $2 billion from multilateral partners, including the International Monetary Fund (IMF), to manage pressure on external payments amid increased emergency energy purchases caused by the US-Israel war on Iran, said the central bank governor yesterday.

The disclosure comes as oil prices soar amid Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint handling one-fifth of global oil trade.

Brent crude futures, the benchmark for international oil trade, closed 4.2 percent higher at $112.57 a barrel on Friday (March 27), up from $72.48 a barrel just a month ago, the day before the US-Israel war on Iran began.

Bangladesh meets 95 percent of its oil and 30 percent of its gas needs through imports.

Middle Eastern countries such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar, which use the Strait of Hormuz to export energy and fertiliser, are two key sources for the country. Bangladesh spends more than $10 billion a year importing petroleum and energy products.

“We are providing the government with ideas about various potential impacts of oil price increases,” said Bangladesh Bank (BB) Governor Md Mostaqur Rahman at a view-exchange meeting with senior business journalists at his office, where deputy governors and senior officials of BB were also present.

Based on different scenarios, the BB is analysing the possible impact on foreign exchange reserves. For example, if the price of oil is $210, the impact will be one type; if it is $150, it will be different; and if it is $100, the result will be different again.

“We are informing the government of these calculations,” he said, adding that discussions are underway regarding obtaining about $2 billion in balance of payment (BoP) support.

Bangladesh, already under an IMF loan programme, resumed talks with an IMF delegation in Dhaka on March 24-25 regarding the stalled $5.5 billion loan approved in January 2023, which has been on hold since the fifth review in November last year.

The country could receive a $1.3 billion tranche by June if it implements key reforms. Two instalments released together in June last year brought the total received so far to $3.6 billion.

Rahman said talks are ongoing with various international partners. “The matter of obtaining additional assistance from the IMF is also under consideration, although no formal discussions have taken place yet,” he added.

The possibility of extra financing from the Asian Development Bank and other sources is also being explored.

Appointed last month after the new government took office, Rahman said Bangladesh needs to ensure energy security and cut costs, and that the government is trying.

“The situation is changing rapidly -- sometimes there is talk of a ceasefire, and then again, fears of new conflict arise. Therefore, efforts are being made to take necessary decisions by constantly monitoring the situation and coordinating with all relevant parties.

“Our goal is only one: to keep the economy relatively stable even in this uncertain situation,” he said.

He added that in the current situation, the central bank’s policy stance is extremely important. “Especially on the exchange rate issue, we have to remain cautious. The BB is also not going to reduce the policy rate.”

“In the current situation, it is not realistic to reduce interest rates quickly, as controlling inflation is essential. It will also take time for confidence in new investments to return,” the BB chief said.

He added that over the last five to eight years, crises have become a new normal. “New problems appear every one or two years -- including Covid, war, and other challenges. It seems we have to move forward accepting this reality.”

STRENGTHENING FINANCIAL SECTOR AND INDUSTRY

The governor also spoke about keeping the financial sector free from political influence. Work is ongoing to recover defaulted loans and assets siphoned abroad. Most of the non-disclosure agreements have been signed by banks with international asset recovery firms.

Last week, the governor met with large industrial groups and employment-generating firms to address their concerns.

“Our main priorities are three -- agriculture, the SME sector, and restarting closed factories. Efforts are being made to bring closed factories back into production, even partially, because these are national assets,” he said.

Initiatives have been taken to increase cashless transactions. By June 30, the Bangla QR code will be mandatory at all payment points, with strict enforcement from July. This will increase transactions and boost revenue.

Responding to questions about troubled non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs), he said efforts are being made for a quick solution. The BB had earlier decided to liquidate six NBFIs due to poor financial health and sought funds from the finance ministry to repay depositors.

“It is our responsibility to protect depositors, as they have kept money in licensed institutions,” he added, noting that the BB will also move forward with making Sammilito Islami Bank operational.

The bank was created as a state-owned entity in December last year through the merger of five troubled Shariah-based lenders. The appointment of a managing director is underway, and the board of the bank will be reconstituted.

Bangladesh opts for seeking an additional $2.0 billion in bailout from foreign development partners to buttress the balance of payments (BoP) through minimising shocks stemming from war crises in Mideast countries.Bangladesh market analysis

Bangladesh Bank (BB) Governor Md Mostaqur Rahman revealed the plan Sunday during a consultation with representatives of the country's leading print-media outlets regarding the central bank's current role in the context of ongoing tensions in the Middle East after USA-Israel duo launched attacks on Iran.

"Though it is in preliminary stage, we have already shared our plan to the IMF (International Monetary Fund) while ERD is also working with other sources for the BoP-supporting funds," he said.

The media persons expressed their concern over negative impact on foreign-currency reserves if the war in the Gulf countries prolongs further as nearly 70 per cent of the $30-billion remittance comes from this region and it might badly impact the country's BoP position.

But the central bankers attending the meeting dispelled the fear of immediate impact of the war that began on February 28 last, saying that the country has enough stock of foreign currencies to mitigate immediate shocks of the crisis if it arises.

The BB governor said energy security remained another major concern. The government is exploring bilateral arrangements and diversified sourcing to reduce dependence on single suppliers and manage import costs. Long-term strategies are also being considered to ensure stability in energy supply.

There should be no political influence in the financial sector, he said. Instructions have been given to take decisions without any form of external influence, even as they push for stronger governance and accountability.

He mentions that although the global success rate in terms of recovering stolen assets remains nominal, efforts are also underway to recover siphoned-off assets as majority of the banks signed NDA (non-disclosure agreement) with renowned global firms.Politics

On the economic front, Mr Rahman said three priority sectors have been identified to stimulate growth: agriculture, small and medium enterprises (SMEs), and the revival of idle industrial production bases.

The central bank governor stresses the importance of bringing underutilised factories back into production-even partially-to prevent further economic loss and maximize the use of national assets.

The central bank is also concerned over the country's low tax-to-GDP ratio, currently below 7.0 per cent, noting that both administrative reforms and increased economic activity are needed to improve revenue collection.

In a major policy push, the governor said, they are accelerating the transition to cashless transactions. The use of a unified Bangla QR payment system, "Bangla QR," will be made mandatory at all payment points by June 30, with enforcement measures, including penalties for noncompliance, expected from July.

Officials believe this will increase transaction transparency, reduce cash- handling costs, and boost revenue.Personal finance tools

Deputy Governor Dr Md. Kabir Ahmed ruled out any serious pressure as far as foreign-currency reserves is concern. The forex reserves stood at $34 billion now and the NOP (net open position) in banks rose to $800 million.

On the other hand, they expect that the country would see at least $2.0- billion-higher remittance inflow in this financial year (FY'26) from the figure of previous fiscal (FY'25). "Simultaneously, the IMF is expected to disburse two remaining installments involving $1.20 billion of its $5.5 billion worth of lending package for stabilising Bangladesh's macroeconomic situations," he said.

Dr Kabir also notes that the demand for US dollar is relatively low in the post-winter season. "So, there is no worry as far as forex reserves is concerned."

Deputy governors of BB Nurun Nahar, Dr Md. Habibur Rahman and Md. Zakir Hossain Chowdhury and BB spokesperson Arief Hossain Khan also spoke at the meeting.

Economists have urged the government to adopt a conservative approach in preparing the upcoming budget for the next fiscal year, taking into consideration the impact of the US-Israel war on Iran, implementing electoral pledges, and boosting investment.

The call came at the first pre-budget meeting with Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury and senior officials of other relevant government agencies at the state guest house Padma on Saturday night.

Among the economists, Salehuddin Ahmed, former finance adviser to the interim government, Debapriya Bhattacharya, distinguished fellow of Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), Fahmida Khatun, executive director of CPD, Selim Raihan, executive director of the South Asian Network on Economic Modelling (Sanem), and Zakir Ahmed Khan, former finance secretary, were present.

Speaking to The Daily Star, they noted that the first budget of the new government is crucial, as it will set the trajectory for how the economy will be managed over the next five years.

While Bangladesh’s budget preparation process typically begins in August-September, they said this budget should not be a routine exercise. Instead, it must reflect electoral commitments, prevailing global and domestic challenges, and long-term economic goals.

The economist pointed out that ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could exert multifaceted pressure on Bangladesh’s economy.

Volatility in global oil markets may drive up import costs, while the risk of supply disruptions remains. This could increase the burden of fuel subsidies, posing a significant challenge to budget implementation.

At the same time, remittance inflows may face headwinds if employment opportunities shrink or incomes decline for migrant workers in the region.

Against this backdrop, several economists underscored that there is little room for overly optimistic assumptions in budget planning. Instead, expenditure frameworks must reflect realistic revenue mobilisation capacity, pressures on foreign exchange reserves and inflation risks.

According to meeting sources, the finance minister brought up long-standing concerns over lack of transparency, cost overrun, and project selection and implementation during the meeting.

He sought suggestions regarding these concerns from the economists.

Economists, in response, suggested including a low number of projects in the budget to ensure smooth implementation.

They also stressed the need to strengthen, streamline and ensure accountability in the formulation of the Annual Development Programme (ADP).

Without addressing these weaknesses, they cautioned, the effectiveness of public investment will remain limited.

No move should be taken to reduce the policy rate at this stage, most economists suggested, as inflation remains high and could intensify further with rising energy and import costs.

Sharing his experience as adviser of the previous interim government, Salehuddin Ahmed stressed that balancing political commitments with economic realities remains a key challenge. He suggested continuing the reform initiatives.

Referring to family cards and expanded safety net schemes, economists suggested streamlining the existing social safety net programmes alongside those electoral promises.

They also called for prioritising restoring confidence in the private sector, stressing the need for improving the investment climate, ensuring policy continuity and reducing administrative bottlenecks.

In the current uncertain environment, investors remain cautious, making it crucial for the government to provide clear and credible policy signals, they noted.

Tax reform featured prominently in the discussion. Structural weaknesses in the National Board of Revenue (NBR), limited tax collection capacity and persistent tax evasion were identified as major concerns.

Economists stressed that expanding the tax base and undertaking administrative reforms are essential for improving revenue mobilisation. They also called for modernisation, greater automation and enhanced accountability within the NBR.

Rashed Al Mahmud Titumir, economic adviser to the prime minister, Md Mostaqur Rahman, governor of Bangladesh Bank, and Md Khairuzzaman Mozumder, secretary of the Finance Division, Monzur Ahmed, member of the General Economic Division of the Planning Commission, Nazma Mobarek, secretary of the Financial Institutions Division, and AK Enamul Haque, director general of Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS), were also present at the meeting.

Bangladesh can absorb the economic shocks stemming from the ongoing Middle East war for the next few months, as it holds adequate foreign exchange reserves to meet rising import bills despite higher energy prices, central bank governor Md Mostaqur Rahman said today (29 March).

In a view-exchange meeting with senior journalists, the newly appointed governor expressed cautious confidence in the country's external position.

He, however, maintained a firm stance on monetary policy, stating that cutting interest rates would be "unwise" at this stage due to persistently high inflation, prioritising price stability over short-term growth.

The governor also pledged to keep the financial sector free from political influence and to strengthen rural economic activities as part of broader efforts to stabilise the economy.

Deputy governors echoed similar views at the meeting. Deputy Governor Md Kabir Ahmed said Bangladesh's gross foreign exchange reserves currently stand at around $35 billion, sufficient to cover several months of import payments.

"Moreover, the Bangladesh Bank expects about $1.5 billion in loan disbursements from the International Monetary Fund by June and is working to secure another $2 billion credit line to ease pressure on the balance of payments," he said.

BB governor holds talks with IMF on advancing loan programme

The governor said the government is seeking cheaper fuel through bilateral deals or direct grants from leading oil exporters. Consequently, the prime minister's foreign affairs adviser is visiting various nations to negotiate these terms.

Furthermore, the Economic Relations Division (ERD) has finalised a $1 billion budget support package from the Asian Development Bank (ADB), said the governor.

However, senior executives at the central bank fear that a prolonged war could trigger significant economic risks and inflationary pressures.

Deputy Governor Habibur Rahman noted that with crude oil prices having now nearly doubled, import costs are expected to rise proportionately.

"In this regard, if the safety of Bangladeshi vessels navigating the Strait of Hormuz can be guaranteed, it will be possible to reduce these additional costs," he said.

The governor, however, said the fuel imports Bangladesh procures under long-term G2G (government-to-government) agreements are sourced at the rates specified in those contracts. He added that the government's efforts are ongoing to ensure that these essential supplies continue uninterrupted.

Bangladesh Bank spokesperson Arief Hossain said a significant number of migrant workers in the Middle East risk losing their jobs and are returning home, raising concerns about a decline in remittances.

He also said, "If the IMF imposes conditions on the government to eliminate fuel subsidies, Bangladesh will have to comply. In such a scenario, inflation could surge significantly."

BB pauses dollar purchase to avoid exchange rate volatility as Iran war fallout looms

Bangladesh Bank officials noted that despite these stringent conditions, failing to secure the IMF loan would jeopardise the country's ability to obtain further credit from the World Bank and the ADB.

Deputy Governor Zakir Hossain Chowdhury said if international fuel oil prices continue to rise over a prolonged period, it will create additional subsidy pressure on the government.

Deputy Governor Kabir Ahmed said he anticipates that import demand would remain subdued this monsoon as well, which will play a vital role in maintaining the stability of both the reserves and the exchange rate.

Highlighting the priorities of the Bangladesh Bank, the governor said ensuring that the financial sector remains free from political influence is the top priority.

"The second priority is the recovery of stolen assets, for which meetings are being held every few days. Most banks have already signed non-disclosure agreements, and the remaining ones are expected to follow suit," he said.

The governor noted that unless GDP growth reaches 5% or higher, it will be difficult to attract foreign investment. To generate employment, the disbursement of loans from a Tk600 crore startup fund is set to commence this coming June, he said.

Furthermore, steps will be taken to stimulate demand in rural areas to keep the economy dynamic through increased domestic consumption, said the governor.

Lending banks have also been instructed to take the necessary measures to reopen factories that were closed either during or before the tenure of the interim government, he said.

The governor said, "We are working to decentralise Bangladesh's banking sector; specifically, banks will be instructed to increase loan disbursements towards agri-based industries and agri-technology.

"We are also considering the formation of a subsidy fund for the SME sector. Our reserves are currently in a safe zone, and we do not intend to see any significant depreciation of the exchange rate."

Stating that there is no scope to retreat from the establishment of the Sammilito Islami Bank, the governor affirmed that its operations will be expedited. "The chairman and managing director will be appointed soon, and I am adamant that this new bank remains entirely free from any political influence," he added.

Noting that the Bangladesh Bank held a meeting with the country's leading industrial conglomerates last Wednesday to understand their challenges, the governor stated that any issues pertaining to the central bank would be resolved.

The governor announced that a single, standardised QR code for all financial transactions will be established across the country by 30 June. "The use of this Bangla QR will become mandatory from 1 July."

He added, "This initiative aims to accelerate cashless transactions, which in turn will play a vital role in boosting revenue collection."

Commerce Minister Khandakar Abdul Muktadir has urged the continuation of special support measures for a defined period after countries graduate from the Least Developed Country (LDC) category to help maintain economic stability.

Speaking on the third day of the ongoing WTO Ministerial Conference, the minister participated in various thematic sessions and emphasised Bangladesh's position on key global trade issues, including WTO reforms.

He also called for the adoption of an LDC graduation-related package at MC14 to support countries like Bangladesh in the post-graduation phase.

Muktadir stressed the importance of ensuring an effective, predictable, and rules-based dispute settlement system, called for the prompt restoration of a fully functional two-tier dispute settlement mechanism, including the revival of the Appellate Body, noting that a strong and impartial system is essential to safeguard the interests of developing and LDC countries.

On fisheries subsidies, the minister highlighted that Bangladesh's contribution to harmful subsidies is close to zero, while major fishing nations account for the bulk, urged stricter discipline on harmful subsidies alongside ensuring Special and Differential Treatment (S&DT) for developing and LDC countries.

He also called for full exemption for small-scale and marginal fishers to ensure fairness and sustainability.

At the conference, Bangladesh announced its accession as the 129th member to the Investment Facilitation for Development Agreement, marking its first participation in a plurilateral agreement under the WTO framework.

The minister expressed hope that this move would improve Bangladesh's investment climate and send a positive signal to foreign investors.

The step was welcomed by several partners, including the European Union, Japan, Korea, the United Kingdom, and Hong Kong.

On agriculture, Muktadir underscored the sector's critical role in ensuring food security, livelihoods, and poverty reduction, called for the swift resolution of long-standing issues such as public stockholding, special safeguard mechanisms, and trade-distorting subsidies by developed countries. He reiterated that S&DT must remain central to agricultural negotiations.

Reaffirming Bangladesh's strong support for the LDC package, the minister emphasized the importance of a smooth and sustainable transition, said special benefits should continue for a specified period after graduation to help maintain economic stability and urged adoption of the package at MC14.

Bangladesh also supported extending the moratorium on non-violation and situation complaints (NVSCs) under the TRIPS Agreement until the next ministerial conference. The minister noted that such complaints could undermine policy space for developing countries, particularly in areas like public health and education, and called for a permanent solution.

He further said WTO reform efforts must be grounded in its core principles of transparency, inclusiveness, and fairness, adding that adherence to these values would help preserve trust and credibility in the multilateral trading system.

The minister reaffirmed Bangladesh's commitment to a fair, inclusive, and development-oriented multilateral trading system, expressing hope that MC14 outcomes would guide future reforms while ensuring the interests of developing and LDC countries are protected.

Talks to reform the World Trade Organization and extend a moratorium to not impose customs duties on electronic transmissions such as digital downloads entered their final day on Sunday with no breakthrough yet in sight, diplomats said.

Trade ministers are working at a WTO meeting in Cameroon to close the gap between the United States and India over extending the e-commerce moratorium due to expire this month, three diplomats told Reuters.

Extending the moratorium is seen as a test for the WTO's relevance, following a year of tariff-fuelled trade turmoil and major disruptions due to the Middle East conflict.

India indicated it would accept an extension of two years, three diplomats said. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, however, has said Washington was not interested in a temporary extension to the ban, only a permanent one.

Business leaders say an extension is critical to guarantee predictability, fearing duties could otherwise be introduced.

There are suggestions the US could accept a "pathway to permanence" with a 10-year extension, a Western diplomat said. A second said a five- to 10-year extension was being explored, while a third indicated it was unlikely all WTO members would agree to go beyond two years.

A new draft document seen by Reuters on Saturday evening proposes support for developing country members, as well as a review clause.

Extending the moratorium permanently would give the US confidence to remain "fully engaged" in the trade body, the US Ambassador to the WTO, Joseph Barloon, told Reuters ahead of the talks.

"If the moratorium does not get extended, the US will use it as an excuse to beat the WTO on the head," a fourth senior diplomat said.

Reforms

The debate comes amid efforts to rework WTO rules to render subsidy use more transparent, make decision-taking easier and potentially rethink the so-called Most-Favoured-Nation principle that ensures members extend all trade benefits equally to one another.

The US and the EU argue China in particular has taken advantage of current rules to their detriment.

Meanwhile, decision-making under the consensus-based system has often been stymied by individual countries' objections.

A handful of countries are opposing a detailed work plan on reforms, while most members support it, two senior diplomats said.

"We are frustrated that we are spending a lot of time talking about process, when we want to get on with the real work, reforming the WTO," a Western diplomat said.

Including into WTO rules an agreement reached by a subset of members aimed at boosting investment in developing countries also remains blocked by India, which said plurilateral accords risk eroding the body's founding principles.

Bangladesh’s pharmaceutical industry is facing mounting pressure as the ongoing US-Israel war on Iran disrupts global supply chains, threatening the availability of raw materials, pushing up freight costs and raising concerns over production stability.

The issue was highlighted at the inaugural session of the 17th Asia Pharma Expo 2026 and Asia Lab Expo 2026, held at the Bangladesh-China Friendship Exhibition Center in Dhaka’s Purbachal yesterday.

Health Minister Sardar Md Sakhawat Hossain, who inaugurated the three-day exposition as the chief guest, said the government is closely monitoring the evolving situation and stressed that ensuring access to quality medicines remains a top priority.

He also reiterated a zero-tolerance stance on corruption and irregularities in the sector.

Industry leaders said the Gulf region unrest has already started to affect the import of active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) and other essential inputs, many of which rely on complex shipping routes through the Middle East.

“The war has disrupted logistics, increased freight costs and caused shipment delays,” said Abdul Muktadir, president of the Bangladesh Association of Pharmaceutical Industries (BAPI).

“Rerouting of sea and air cargo is making imports more expensive and unpredictable.”

The disruption is particularly significant for Bangladesh, which remains heavily dependent on imported raw materials despite its strong domestic manufacturing base. Prolonged instability could drive up production costs and put pressure on medicine prices in the coming months, industry insiders said.

According to BAPI, the industry now meets nearly 98 percent of domestic demand and exports medicines to more than 120 countries, reflecting steady expansion over the past decade.

Bangladesh currently exports around $300 million worth of medicines annually and is emerging as a growing player in the global pharmaceutical market.

However, sustaining this momentum will depend on the sector’s ability to navigate external shocks and ensure an uninterrupted supply of inputs.

Muktadir stressed the urgency of accelerating the development of a domestic API industry to reduce reliance on imports.

“The current situation highlights our vulnerability. Policy support is essential to strengthen local capacity,” he said.

He warned that if the conflict persists, rising freight costs and supply uncertainties could erode profit margins and disrupt production cycles, with smaller manufacturers likely to face greater pressure.

Despite the challenges, Bangladesh has so far managed to keep medicine prices relatively lower than in neighbouring countries, supported by strong local production and regulatory oversight, he added.

Md Shameem Haidar, director general of the Directorate General of Drug Administration, said the industry continues to maintain quality and effectiveness, although global disruptions pose new risks.

Industry insiders estimate the market size has already exceeded $3.5 billion, which could surpass $6 billion by 2026, driven by annual growth of 15 to 18 percent.

However, they cautioned that geopolitical tensions could test the sector’s resilience in the near term.