In Bangladesh's largest export market, the European Union (EU), apparel unit prices fell 3.84% in 2025 compared to 2024, amid sluggish European demand and aggressive competition from major exporters like China and India.

Analysts say this surge was partly driven by US tariff barriers, pushing non-US shipments toward Europe.

Eurostat data, analysed by the Bangladesh Apparel Exchange, shows EU apparel imports grew 2.10% to €90 billion last year, driven by a 13.78% rise in volume, while average unit prices dropped 10.27%.

Bangladesh's apparel exports to the EU rose to €19.41 billion from €18.32 billion in 2024 – a 6% growth – but unit prices fell 3.84% as volumes outpaced value growth. December alone saw a 12% year-on-year drop in unit prices.

Fazlul Haque, managing director of Plummy Fashions, told The Business Standard, "Demand in Europe has not increased much, while due to higher tariffs in the US, countries like China are exporting less there and pushing more into the European market to offset losses. As a result, prices are falling, and we are also forced to sell at lower prices."

China's apparel exports to the EU rose 1.17% in value to €26.58 billion, despite a 9.38% fall in unit prices. Mohammad Abdur Razzaque, chairman of Research and Policy Integration for Development (RAPID), said, "Demand has not grown much as some European countries are under economic pressure. At the same time, US tariffs are pushing exporters into Europe, which is affecting prices."

He added that prices may recover slightly in the short term, but over the next two to three years, pressure is likely to return as India and Vietnam gain zero-tariff access under EU free trade agreements. Eurostat shows unit prices fell for almost all major exporters except Vietnam, whose exports rose 10% with a 4.51% unit price increase.

Nearly half of Bangladesh's apparel exports are destined for Europe. In FY2024-25, Bangladesh exported around $40 billion worth of ready-made garments to the global market.

As Ramadan approaches, prices of essential commodities, including fruits, vegetables, and protein items, are increasing in the kitchen markets of the capital, leaving consumers, particularly the low-income group, worried.

People fear that the prices may soar further as Ramadan will begin at the time when the interim government hands over the power to the BNP.

Lemon, one of the main ingredients for iftar to prepare juice, is now selling at what vendors call a "century" rate.

A visit to markets in Lalbagh, New Market, and Azimpur today revealed that the price of large lemons has jumped nearly 50% within a couple of weeks. A hali (four pieces) of large lemons is now selling for Tk110–120, up from Tk70–80 just a fortnight ago. Medium-sized lemons, previously priced at Tk50–60 per hali, have climbed to Tk80.

Explaining the price hike, Lalbagh's vendor Mamun Mia said the low supply due to off-season has hit the market, and only the trees that bear fruit year-round are providing lemons now.

Blaming the recent election-related transport restrictions for the hike, he said supply shrinks, and prices increase when perishable goods do not reach the market on time, insisting that the situation is temporary and prices will stabilise once the main season begins.

Shahida Begum, a homemaker shopping at New Market, said prices fall in other countries when Ramadan begins but it happens the opposite in Bangladesh. If transport runs a little less for two days, traders immediately raise prices.

As winter draws to a close, seasonal vegetables have grown costlier. Papaya has risen from Tk25 to Tk30 per kg. Bitter gourd has surged from Tk120 to Tk160, while okra has jumped from Tk80 to Tk120. Green chilies are selling at Tk120 per kg. Round eggplant stands at Tk80, and cucumbers at Tk60. Long eggplants — essential for preparing beguni, have increased by Tk10 to Tk60 per kg from Tk50.

However, bottle gourd has reduced to Tk60 from Tk50, and tomatoes Tk50 from Tk60. Potatoes remain stable at Tk20 per kg, cauliflower at Tk30, and hyacinth beans between Tk40 and Tk60.

On the other hand, Sonali chicken, once sold at Tk330 per kg, now sells at Tk350. Broiler chicken is Tk190. Beef has climbed sharply from Tk750 to Tk850 per kg. Among fish, rui, shing, koi, and pabda have risen by Tk20 to Tk 30 per kg, though other varieties remain stable.

Onions, sold for Tk50 on Friday, were Tk60 yesterday. Local garlic has reached Tk120 from Tk90–100, while imported one stands at Tk160. Chinese ginger is selling at Tk160, and the local variety at Tk130–140.

Khesari lentils have increased from Tk85–90 to Tk100 per kg. However, other pulses are stable, such as mung, masoor, and chickpeas. Sugar prices Tk100, gram flour at Tk80, and dried chili at Tk350 per kg. Isabgol husk is priced at Tk150 per 100 grams.

The price of pulao rice has gone up from Tk135 to Tk140 per kg, while other rice varieties remain steady: Miniket at Tk80, Atash at Tk60, and Pajam at Tk55. Loose soybean oil is selling at Tk200 per liter and loose mustard oil at Tk220.

Within a week, prices of dates have jumped Tk50–100 per kg depending on the variety. Despite a reduction in import duty from 25% to 15% last December — aimed at boosting imports and stabilising prices — market rates have climbed instead.

Currently, Zahidi dates are selling at Tk280 per kg, up from Tk250 a week ago. Boro'i items sell for Tk480–500, Dabbas at Tk500, Kalmi at Tk700 (up from Tk600), Sukkari at Tk800, Mabroom at Tk850–1,200, Mariam at Tk1, 100–1,400, and Medjool at Tk1, 200–1,500 per kg.

Besides, nearly all varieties of fruits have increased by Tk20–60 per kg within a week, with traders claiming heightened demand for Ramadan.

Apples are selling at Tk260–350 per kg, oranges at Tk240–350, malta at Tk250–280, white grapes at Tk520–550, black grapes at Tk550–600, and pomegranates at Tk450–550.

Arif Majumdar, a fruit trader at New Market, said dealers have hiked prices in anticipation of Ramadan. "Election-related disruptions also prevented some shipments from arriving.

Oil prices edged down on Tuesday as traders gauged the potential for supply disruptions after US guidance for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz kept attention squarely on tensions between Washington and Tehran.

Brent crude oil futures were down 16 cents, or 0.23 percent, at $68.88 a barrel by 0800 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude fell 20 cents, or 0.31 percent, to $64.16.

That’s after prices rose more than 1 percent on Monday, when the US Department of Transportation’s Maritime Administration advised US-flagged commercial vessels to stay as far from Iran’s territorial waters as possible and to verbally decline Iranian forces permission to board if asked.

About a fifth of the oil consumed globally passes through the Strait of Hormuz between Oman and Iran, making any escalation in the area a major risk to global oil supplies.

Iran and fellow OPEC members Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Iraq export most of their crude via the strait, mainly to Asia.

The guidance was issued despite Iran’s top diplomat saying last week that Oman-mediated nuclear talks with the US were off to a “good start” and set to continue.

“While talks in Oman produced a cautiously positive tone, lingering uncertainty over potential escalation, sanctions tightening, or supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz has kept a modest risk premium intact,” Tony Sycamore, an analyst at IG, wrote in a client note.

Meanwhile, the European Union has proposed extending its sanctions against Russia to include ports in Georgia and Indonesia that handle Russian oil, the first time the bloc would target ports in third countries, according to a proposal document reviewed by Reuters.

The move is part of efforts to tighten sanctions on Russian oil, a key source of revenue for Moscow, over the war in Ukraine.

Indian Oil Corp bought six million barrels of crude from West Africa and the Middle East, traders said, as the Asian country steered clear of Russian oil in New Delhi’s push for a trade deal with Washington.

Bangladesh recorded 6,729 road accidents in 2025, resulting in 9,111 deaths and 14,812 injuries, highlighting road safety as a pressing national concern.Third-party motor insurance, intended to provide financial coverage for those affected by such incidents, remains underutilised despite its potential as a social protection tool.

The Insurance Development and Regulatory Authority (IDRA) relaunched third-party motor insurance in August 2025 under the name "Motor Liability Insurance" on a pilot basis. Non-life insurers are allowed to sell the policy for one year and report statistics to IDRA after the period ends. Yet, six months into the pilot, uptake remains minimal.

Experts cite two main reasons: the policy is not mandatory, and premiums are relatively high.

How Motor Liability Insurance Works

The policy covers financial liability if a third party suffers death, injury, or property damage caused by an insured vehicle. Maximum compensation is Tk2,00,000 per person in the event of death or permanent total disability. Partial permanent disability is compensated as per a prescribed schedule, while serious injuries with recovery potential receive up to Tk20,000. Vehicle or property damage is covered up to Tk60,000, with legal, arbitration, and related expenses up to Tk10,000.

Previously, third-party insurance was abolished in December 2020, following the Road Transport Act 2018, which removed the mandatory requirement.

Customer reluctance

A visit to Dhaka's IDRA office revealed widespread unawareness among motorcyclists about the insurance. Those familiar with it are reluctant to purchase it since it is optional.

Golam Rasul, a private-sector employee who occasionally drives passengers via ride-sharing platforms, told The Business Standard, "I would take it if the government made it mandatory. Right now, I don't see the need to pay such high premiums. Careful driving should be enough to avoid accidents."

Insurer frustration

According to United Insurance Company Limited, around Tk48 crore in premiums were collected between January and September 2025, but none came from motor insurance.

Khawja Manzer Nadeem, Managing Director, told TBS, "No one is purchasing motor insurance because it is not legally required. Under the pilot, we haven't even issued a single policy yet. Unlike in other countries, there's no system to quickly determine compensation, so people don't see practical benefits."

Brig. Gen. (Retd.) Md. Shafique Shamim, MD and CEO of Sena Insurance Company, added, "Limited awareness and interest exist. The policy won't work unless it's mandatory. Premiums should also be reconsidered."

An anonymous insurance official noted that most companies are not actively marketing the policy, leaving sales stagnant.

IDRA's position

IDRA spokesperson Saifunnahar Sumi told TBS, "Motor insurance should be mandatory. We've discussed this with BRTA, transport owner associations, and other stakeholders. However, trust issues in the insurance sector mean agreement has not been reached yet. We are continuing to work on this."

Premiums and coverage

Under the new policy, a 150cc motorcycle requires a total premium of Tk1,006, a 350cc three-wheeler with four seats, Tk1,696, a private car (1,300cc, five seats including driver), Tk2,070, and a two-seat three-ton truck, Tk3,651.

In case of accidents, compensation follows IDRA circulars: Tk2,00,000 for death or permanent total disability, Tk20,000 for serious injuries, Tk60,000 for property damage, and Tk10,000 for legal or arbitration costs.

Practical challenges

Implementation of third-party motor insurance in Bangladesh faces several practical challenges. Many vehicle owners remain unaware of the policy or purchase it only for formality, without fully understanding its coverage or benefits.

Even when an accident occurs, claimants often have to navigate lengthy legal procedures to receive compensation, making the process cumbersome and time-consuming.

Experts also note that the current compensation limits, such as Tk2,00,000 for death or permanent total disability, are insufficient to cover the needs of affected families in today's economic context.

In addition, disputes frequently arise between insurers and policyholders, with claims sometimes denied due to unauthorised drivers, exceeding vehicle usage limits, or delayed accident notifications. Such disputes are generally resolved through civil courts or arbitration, a process that, while considered a risk management tool by insurers, can further delay compensation and add to the financial strain on victims.

Future steps

Experts suggest updating compensation limits, digitising claims settlement, increasing public awareness, and coordinating among government, regulators, and insurers. Improved road safety would also reduce accidents and ease the burden on third-party insurance.

Third-party motor insurance is not just a legal requirement; it is a critical social safety net. Given the scale of road accidents in Bangladesh, the system must become stronger, more transparent, and more effective.

A combined effort from the law, the insurance sector, and the public can transform motor liability insurance into a robust protection mechanism.

Bangladesh Bank (BB) has fixed office hours from 9:30am to 4pm for all scheduled banks in the country during the month of Ramadan.

However, people will be allowed to make banking transactions from 9:30am to 2:30pm, according to a circular issued by the central bank today (10 February).

For bank staff, there will be a break of 15 minutes from 1:15pm to 1:30pm for Zuhr prayers.

The office and banking hours will return to the earlier time after Ramadan, said the BB's notice.

Experts have warned that Bangladesh's newly signed reciprocal tariff agreement with the United States sharply limits its ability to enter trade deals with countries such as China or Russia.

They said the pact includes a clause barring Bangladesh from concluding agreements with any "non-market economy", with violations risking the reimposition of a 37% reciprocal tariff first imposed by Washington in April last year.

The agreement states: "If Bangladesh enters into a new bilateral free trade agreement or preferential economic agreement with a non-market country that undermines this Agreement, the United States may, if consultations fail, terminate this Agreement and reimpose the applicable reciprocal tariff rate."

The US-classified non-market economies include China, Russia, Vietnam, Belarus, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Moldova and Azerbaijan.

Bangladesh has to raise US defence imports under trade deal. Find out what else the agreement says

Trade analysts said the clause could also block Bangladesh's entry into the world's largest trade bloc, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, as China is a member and accession would require separate agreements with all members.

They added that Bangladesh's current trajectory of engagement with China may no longer be viable.

Former WTO Cell director Md Hafizur Rahman and former Bangladesh Trade and Tariff Commission member Mostafa Abid Khan shared these views with TBS while analysing the agreement.

Commerce Adviser Sk Bashir Uddin and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer signed the deal in Washington on 9 February. Under the pact, the reciprocal tariff on Bangladeshi exports has been lowered to 19%, while garments made from US cotton and synthetic fibres will qualify for zero reciprocal duty.

However, much of the 32-page text released by the Office of the US Trade Representative sets out obligations Bangladesh must meet to access limited tariff relief, they said.

A close reading shows that while most US tariffs remain intact, Bangladesh has agreed to eliminate or sharply reduce customs duties on most US product categories. Some goods will receive duty-free access immediately, while others will see tariffs halved and fully phased out within five to ten years.

"….customs duties on originating goods provided for in the items in staging category EIF shall be eliminated entirely, and these goods shall be duty-free on the date of entry into force of this Agreement…customs duties on originating goods provided for in the items in staging category A shall remain zero," reads the document, without specifying items under those categories.

The agreement is expected to take effect 60 days after both sides complete their legal procedures.

Potential impact on investment

The agreement allows the US to take action against companies operating in Bangladesh if they export goods to the US at below-market prices. It also permits action if a foreign firm exports to third countries at below-market rates and a US company claims injury as a result.

Hafizur said this could deter investors, particularly from China and other countries, who view Bangladesh as a low-cost production base for exports to the US.

Asked how "market rate" would be defined, Abid said the US would determine it, recalling that past anti-dumping cases used production costs plus a 20% profit margin.

Revenue collection, intellectual property

The agreement is expected to boost Bangladesh's garment exports by granting zero reciprocal tariffs on apparel made from US cotton. India and Pakistan, which rely on domestic cotton, will not receive similar benefits, potentially giving Bangladesh an edge.

The US will offer tariff concessions on 6,710 products, while Bangladesh will benefit on 1,638 items.

Hafizur said the US has cut duties on its exports by 50%, leaving only VAT and advance income tax, which could reduce Bangladesh's revenue and weaken protection for domestic industries.

On intellectual property, Bangladesh must accede to 13 treaties outside the WTO framework, a process both experts said would pose significant legal and economic challenges.

Reciprocal tariff deal with US allows exit with notice: Commerce adviser

Regulatory and labour obligations

Bangladesh has agreed to remove non-tariff barriers, licensing requirements and restrictions on US products, accept US certifications unilaterally, and comply with safety and emissions standards set by agencies such as the FDA.

It must also ease barriers for reinsurers, expand freedom of association for workers, resolve criminal cases against factory workers, establish a minimum wage review mechanism, and strengthen IP enforcement.

Bangladesh will also have to ratify or accede to a dozen global conventions, including the Berne Convention, within three to five years.

Commercial purchases for Bangladesh

Commercial purchase deals under the agreement include Bangladesh's acquisition of 14 Boeing aircraft, with an option to buy more, a long-term offtake of US liquefied natural gas valued at an estimated $15 billion over 15 years, procurement of at least 700,000 tonnes of wheat per year for five years, 2.6 million tonnes or $1.25 billion worth of soy and soy products over one year, and cotton worth $3.5 billion.

Regarding the Boeing aircraft, Commerce Adviser Sk Bashir Uddin told journalists that Bangladesh would spend between TK30,000 and 35,000 crore to purchase them, payable over 20 years, averaging roughly Tk1,500 crore per year.

Bangladesh to sign reciprocal tariff trade deal with US today

Security clauses

While protecting US business, Bangladesh must take precautions in trades with countries that face US economic or national security concerns.

The agreement states: "Bangladesh shall adopt or maintain a complementary restrictive measure, in accordance with its laws and regulations, in support of the US measure" if the US imposes a "border measure or other trade action" to protect its economic or national security.

The deal restricts Bangladesh's defence purchases. "Bangladesh shall endeavour to increase purchases of US military equipment and limit military equipment purchases from certain countries."

It also dictates which countries Bangladesh should do business with: "Bangladesh shall adopt measures to encourage shipbuilding and shipping by market economy countries."

Facilitating US investment

The deal also facilitates US direct investment in exploration and mining of critical minerals and energy resources in Bangladesh, as well as in power generation, telecommunications, transportation, and infrastructure, on terms no less favourable than those offered to local investors.

The agreement requires Bangladesh to stop subsidising state-owned enterprises producing commercial goods that may discriminate against US goods and services.

Bangladesh agrees to do all these to get some tariff relief in exchange for helping the US minimize its trade gap – roughly $6.1 billion in 2024 – with Bangladesh.

Limited tariff benefits

In return, the US has pledged to create a mechanism allowing a limited volume of Bangladeshi apparel and textile exports to enter duty-free, linked to the use of US cotton and man-made fibres.

Other Bangladeshi goods will face an additional ad valorem duty capped at 19%.

The White House said the agreement builds on the 2013 Trade and Investment Cooperation Forum Agreement and would provide "unprecedented access" to each other's markets.

USTR Jamieson Greer said the deal marked "a meaningful step forward" in opening markets and creating new opportunities for American exporters.

PRAN-RFL Group has entered Bangladesh's motorcycle market with a plan to invest around Tk500 crore over the next three years, aiming to set up a manufacturing and assembly facility at the Habiganj Industrial Park and create direct and indirect employment for about 5,000 people.

The country's leading conglomerate will operate in both conventional motorcycles and electric two-wheelers, combining the manufacturing and marketing of its own electric scooter brand, RYDO, with the local production and distribution of motorcycles under the popular TVS brand.

According to company officials, work on establishing the Habiganj plant will begin soon. Alongside manufacturing, PRAN-RFL will invest in building a modern nationwide marketing network and strengthening after-sales services, a segment industry insiders say is critical to sustaining growth in Bangladesh's competitive two-wheeler market.

PRAN-RFL has already started manufacturing and marketing RYDO electric scooters at its Habiganj facility, employing around 1,000 people directly. Once the factory reaches full capacity, another 1,000 direct jobs will be created, while an estimated 3,000 more positions are expected through suppliers, distributors and service centres.

RN Paul, managing director of PRAN-RFL Group, said the decision reflects changing consumer preferences, particularly among young people. "Motorcycles and bicycles are no longer just modes of transportation; they have become lifestyle products," he said, noting that PRAN-RFL's long experience in producing and marketing affordable bicycles provided a foundation for entering the motorcycle and electric scooter segments.

Taking over TVS operations

As part of its expansion, PRAN-RFL has taken over TVS motorcycles in Bangladesh under a recently signed memorandum of understanding between the two companies.

Paul said TVS motorcycles would soon be produced locally as "Made in Bangladesh" products at the Habiganj factory.

An investment of around Tk400 crore will be made in phases for TVS production, with technical support from the Indian manufacturer.

"Through new models, improved braking systems and better after-sales service, we aim to bring this brand back to the top," Paul said.

Mahmudur Rahman, chief operating officer of RFL's bike business, said marketing of TVS motorcycles through PRAN-RFL's network will begin by the end of February, while full-scale production at Habiganj is expected to start within this year. Initially, the factory will produce about 5,000 units per month, with plans to double capacity through expansion.

TVS Motor Company, one of India's leading motorcycle manufacturers, has had a visible presence in Bangladesh's two-wheeler market for years, with models such as the TVS Star City Plus, TVS Apache series and commuter bikes being popular among urban and rural riders alike.

Until recently, the brand's motorcycles were imported and distributed locally by Rangs Motors. However, fragmented distribution and inconsistent after-sales support have limited TVS's competitive edge against rivals with deeper retail networks. With PRAN-RFL now taking over marketing and future local production, the brand aims to strengthen its foothold in Bangladesh through expanded distribution.

Strong push for electric scooters

PRAN-RFL is placing particular emphasis on electric scooters, viewing them as vehicles of the future amid rising fuel costs and environmental concerns. Paul said electric scooters are already widely used in India, China and Vietnam, and Bangladesh has strong demand potential, although high prices have constrained growth.

By 2027, the company aims to offer RYDO electric scooters at around Tk50,000, targeting mass-market adoption. Production and assembly of RYDO scooters have already started at Habiganj with an initial investment of Tk50 crore. Currently, about 20% of components are manufactured locally, with plans to increase localisation to nearly 100% within a year through an additional Tk50 crore investment.

Mahmudur said the factory is now producing around 500 RYDO scooters per month, which will rise to 3,000 units once operations are fully scaled up.

Charging infrastructure remains a key challenge for electric two-wheelers. Addressing this, Paul said PRAN-RFL is installing fast-charging stations at its retail outlets in partnership with Japan-backed startup Glafit Bangladesh Limited, an initiative expected to support wider EV adoption.

Backward linkage push, steady growth strategy

Industry insiders estimate Bangladesh's motorcycle market at Tk7,000-8,000 crore, growing at 16-17% annually. Nearly 99% of motorcycles sold in the country are locally manufactured or assembled, driven by favourable government policies and rising urban and semi-urban mobility needs.

Motorcycle sales have nearly doubled over the past decade, rising from fewer than 2,00,000 units in 2015 to around 4,00,000 units annually. By 2027, industry capacity is expected to reach one million units.

PRAN-RFL also sees strong potential in backward linkage industries. Paul said components such as drive chains, seats, stands, wheels and batteries can be manufactured locally, leveraging RFL's experience in plastics, metal and consumer goods manufacturing.

Company officials said the first year will focus on stable growth, expanding dealer and service networks, and ensuring strong customer support, with a longer-term goal of emerging as a market leader in both conventional and electric two-wheelers.

Commerce Adviser Sheikh Bashir Uddin has said that Bangladesh can withdraw from the reciprocal tariff agreement signed with the United States by issuing a formal notice, should the next government choose to do so, as the deal includes an exit clause.

He disclosed the information at a press conference held at the Ministry of Commerce in the Secretariat today (10 February), a day after Bangladesh and the US signed the reciprocal tariff agreement.

The commerce adviser said the agreement contains a provision allowing either country to withdraw, if necessary, by serving an appropriate notice. "We were mindful of the next government while negotiating the deal. If a future government feels that the agreement is not suitable for any reason, this clause allows them to exit," he said.

Commerce Secretary Mahbubur Rahman said the agreement allows withdrawal with two months' notice, adding that the deal will come into force once both countries issue formal notifications.

On 2 April 2025, the United States imposed reciprocal tariffs on several countries at varying rates to reduce its trade deficit.

Initially, the Trump administration imposed a 37% reciprocal tariff on Bangladeshi products. After negotiations, the rate was reduced to 20% in August. Following nine months of talks, the two countries signed the agreement on 9 February, further reducing the reciprocal tariff to 19%.

Under the agreement, Bangladesh's main export item -- ready-made garments -- will enjoy zero reciprocal tariff if produced using US-origin cotton and man-made fibres.

At the press conference, the commerce adviser said Bangladesh exports goods worth around $8 billion to the US, and has a trade surplus of $6 billion. Overall, he said, the 19% reciprocal tariff will apply to only around 10% of Bangladesh's exports.

Noting that the US economy is worth $36 trillion, the adviser said its import demand is enormous, creating vast export opportunities for Bangladesh.

He also noted that Bangladesh imports agricultural products such as wheat, maize, and oilseeds worth around $15 billion annually, adding that the notion that Bangladesh is fully self-sufficient in food is incorrect.

Commerce Secretary Mahbubur Rahman said the US has introduced a tariff benefit called "Potential Tariff Adjustment for Partner Countries," which will take effect on the day the agreement comes into force. This benefit will apply to partner countries that have signed reciprocal tariff agreements with the US.

Under the scheme, the US has granted duty-free benefits on more than 2,500 items. Among products Bangladesh produces, pharmaceuticals top the list, meaning all medicines and pharmaceutical raw materials will enjoy duty-free access. Other eligible items include certain plastic products, aircraft parts, plywood, particle boards, agricultural products, and fishery items.

The commerce adviser said the agreement will significantly benefit the textile, spinning, and weaving sectors by enabling double-stage transformation. He added that while Bangladesh had pursued a free trade agreement (FTA) with the US, Washington was not interested in signing one.

The commerce secretary said the agreement initially did not include enforcement or exit clauses, but Bangladesh successfully negotiated their inclusion.

Responding to a question on whether the agreement includes provisions requiring Bangladesh to reduce imports from third countries or meet additional US demands, the commerce adviser said no such conditions were included.

The commerce secretary added that while such issues were initially raised, Bangladesh refused to accept them. "We made it clear during negotiations that we could not include any provisions that would create sensitivity or discrimination against other countries," he said.

Before the July uprising, the main index of the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) stood at 5,223 points, with a daily turnover of Tk208 crore. Investor confidence plummeted, and many withdrew from the market.

During this uncertain period, the responsibility of restoring stability fell on Khondkar Rashed Maksud, chairman of the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC).

Investors placed their trust in the commission, expecting substantial reforms to stabilise the market.

After the uprising, Maksud's commission saw the crisis as an opportunity to restore market discipline, increase transparency, and rebuild investor confidence. As part of active measures, a five-member special investigation committee was formed to probe irregularities and corruption in 12 listed companies, most of which had occurred during the previous government's tenure.

Based on the committee's findings, several companies, including Beximco, faced fines. However, these measures had a mixed impact, causing investor apprehension. Public protests demanding the chairman's resignation were held at Motijheel as confidence in the commission wavered.

During this period, the commission also withdrew floor prices set by the previous commission, though two companies retained their floor prices. Structurally, the BSEC introduced amendments to three key laws to strengthen the market framework. The Public Issue Rules amendments made the IPO process for new companies more transparent and verifiable.

Margin Rules amendments controlled investor leverage to reduce excessive trading risks. Mutual Fund Rules amendments tightened mutual fund management regulations to safeguard investor interests. These reforms were seen as crucial steps toward transparency, risk management, and rebuilding investor confidence.

However, the commission's refusal to approve long-term fund-raising led to the cancellation or withdrawal of 18 applications totaling nearly Tk1,000 crore. This hindered entrepreneurs from implementing business plans and delayed multiple projects. Additionally, 21 officials were temporarily suspended for breaching market discipline, creating anxiety within the regulatory workforce.

The interim government's chief adviser issued five directives to restore market stability. These included reducing government-owned multinational company shares in the market to increase liquidity, encouraging and incentivising large domestic private companies to get listed, completing market reforms within three months with foreign expert assistance to prevent manipulation, taking strict action against those involved in irregularities or manipulation, and encouraging heavily debt-dependent businesses to raise funds via bonds and equity instead of relying solely on bank loans. The current commission is working to implement these directives.

A finance ministry-formed committee recommended creating a Tk10,000 crore fund to boost liquidity in the capital market, alongside a Tk3,000 crore fund offering loans to small investors at a 4% interest rate.

The committee in its report also proposed raising institutional investors' share to 60% and encouraging participation through tax incentives, including tax-free dividend income up to Tk1 lakh. It further proposed cutting capital gains tax to 5%, offering a 20% tax rebate on asset-backed securities, and extending tax exemptions for mutual funds.

The report calls for broader capital market development, strengthening the BSEC, reinforcing the state-owned Investment Corporation of Bangladesh (ICB), and improving stock exchange governance.

The market remains volatile, with fluctuating indices, limited trading volume, and investor confidence yet to fully recover. Post-election, the market may see moderate stabilisation, but long-term recovery will require policy consistency and restored investor trust.

Overall, the period following the July uprising can be seen as a transformative phase for Bangladesh's stock market. BSEC's measures focused on strengthening structural foundations. Punitive actions, legal reforms, floor price withdrawals, and advisory directives aimed to ensure market transparency and discipline. Yet, political and economic challenges mean achieving full market stability and restoring investor confidence will remain a gradual process.

Leaders of the country's brokerage community have called on the newly elected government to demonstrate its commitment to capital market reform within the first 100 days in office, stressing that timely and decisive measures are crucial to restoring investor confidence and stabilising a fragile economy.

"We want to see what concrete measures the new government takes within its first 100 days to develop the capital market in line with its election manifesto," said Saiful Islam, president of the DSE Brokers Association of Bangladesh (DBA), in a conversation with The Business Standard.

The oath-taking of the newly elected members of parliament and the cabinet members of the new government is likely to take place on Monday or Tuesday.

The Election Commission issued a gazette notification on Friday for the 13th parliamentary election, officially confirming the winners for 297 out of 299 seats where polling had been held.

The BNP secured 209 seats in the 12 February polls while Jamaat-e-Islami secured 68 seats.

Saiful Islam clarified that market participants' expectations are not limited to short-term actions. "Our expectations are not for the short term, but for the next five years. The BNP chairperson himself said at a press conference on Saturday that they are going to assume responsibility at a fragile time for the economy," Saiful said.

According to him, to steer both the fragile economy and the battered capital market towards recovery, the new BNP-led government must embark on a path of massive development. "We want to see clear initiatives and a roadmap for economic and capital market development within the first 100 days," he added.

Minhaz Mannan Emon, director of the Dhaka Stock Exchange, echoed similar sentiments. He said that in response to long-standing investor demands, the BNP included a specific roadmap for capital market development in its election manifesto.

"Investors now want to see the successful implementation of that roadmap," he said.

Emon alleged that during the past 15 to 17 years under what he described as a "fascist government," the capital market was subject to widespread plundering and mismanagement.

"The market was pushed to the brink of destruction," he said, adding that thousands of investors were rendered financially devastated during this period.

He noted that affected and nearly bankrupt investors now have high expectations from the new government. "There are strong hopes and aspirations among affected investors. We want to see the successful implementation of the commitments made toward the stock market," Emon said.

He further urged the incoming administration to continue the reform initiatives undertaken by the interim government in the capital market. "At the same time, good governance and discipline must be restored in the market to encourage investors to return."

Emon also stressed the importance of merit-based appointments at the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission. He said the new government should appoint the BSEC chairman and commissioners based on qualifications rather than political considerations.

"The stock exchanges should be allowed to operate independently without interference. The media must also be able to function freely so that it can report on manipulation, irregularities and corruption. This will enhance transparency in the stock market," he said.

Echoing Emon's concerns, Saiful Islam said he expects the new government to overhaul the BSEC and appoint honest and competent individuals. He pointed out that policy inconsistency and a lack of coordination among regulators have significantly harmed investors.

Citing an example, Saiful said that at one stage it was announced that nine non-bank financial institutions would be liquidated, but later the number was revised to six. "Because of such inconsistency, investors have lost hundreds of crores of taka," he said.

He described policy inconsistency and non-cooperation among regulators as very serious issues. "We hope the new government will take responsibility and resolve these problems," he said, adding that the administration should work closely with the stock market to ensure its sustainable development.

Market stakeholders have identified several persistent challenges facing the capital market. Regulatory reforms remain stalled, while the supply side has weakened significantly, with virtually no new initial public offerings in the past three years.

Governance and transparency have yet to improve meaningfully, and foreign investment participation remains low. In addition, a lack of effective coordination among regulators and frequent policy reversals has further eroded investor confidence.

Despite these structural weaknesses, the market showed a strong rally in the two trading sessions leading up to the national election. The benchmark DSEX index gained 170 points to reach 5,399, while market capitalisation rose by Tk9,800 crore. Daily turnover climbed to Tk790 crore, marking a four-month high.

Market participants believe this rally reflects optimism surrounding political stability and expectations of reform under the new government. However, brokers and exchange officials caution that without swift and visible policy actions, the renewed momentum may prove short-lived.

Bangladesh Bank Governor Ahsan H Mansur yesterday said that without effective implementation of good governance, meaningful results cannot be achieved in the insurance sector, stressing that accountability must be ensured across regulators, insurers and all stakeholders.

He made the remarks while speaking as the chief guest at the launching ceremony of the Insurance Development and Regulatory Authority's (IDRA) new website and digital insurance manual at the BIAM Foundation auditorium in the capital.

Mansur said the central bank would provide necessary support from the banking sector, but warned that the market cannot be allowed to function without oversight.

"There are comprehensive governance conditions. If these conditions are not fulfilled, desired outcomes will not be achieved," he said, adding that while the market may move at its own pace, regulators will not allow it to operate independently without responsibility.

Highlighting long-standing weaknesses in the insurance industry, the governor said investment, accounting and premium collection had taken place in many cases, but customer liabilities were not being paid due to poor fund management. He instructed chief executive officers and chief financial officers of insurance companies to manage funds properly so that claims and liabilities can be met on time.

The programme was presided over by IDRA Chairman M Aslam Alam. Special guests included Kazi Sakhawat Hossain Lintu, vice-president of the Bangladesh Insurance Association, BM Yusuf Ali, president of the Bangladesh Insurance Forum.

Mansur formally unveiled the upgraded IDRA website and the digital insurance manual, describing the initiative as a crucial step in restoring discipline and transparency in the sector.

He said reforms were the only way to rescue the insurance industry, which has long been plagued by governance failures, weak compliance and low public trust.

He also noted that Bangladesh's insurance sector remains small relative to the size of the economy, limiting its contribution to GDP.

The governor said the government can take certain initiatives, but product development and market expansion largely depend on private-sector participation. He emphasised that insurance coverage can be extended to both movable and immovable assets, and urged coordinated efforts to expand the market, warning that without growth the sector would remain constrained.

He also called on insurers to actively provide data through the regulator's new digital platform, cautioning that digitisation would be delayed without proper information flow.

Mansur encouraged insurers to move towards cashless transactions, saying reduced cash use would help increase government revenue. Bangladesh Bank, he added, would support this transition, while IDRA would prepare guidelines to ensure premiums are deposited through banks.

Concluding his speech, the governor said the sector had lost its way by prioritising short-term profits and must now be rebuilt as a productive and trustworthy industry.

IDRA Chairman M Aslam Alam said the digital insurance manual compiles all relevant laws, rules, regulations and circulars in an accessible format. Available as an e-book, HTML version and downloadable PDF, the manual is designed to be user-friendly.

He said if reforms are implemented properly, the insurance sector could see significant progress within five years, but warned that failure to act would deepen existing problems.

The Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) has reinstated two listed companies from the Z category to their respective categories after they completed the disbursement of declared dividends for the last fiscal year.

According to separate disclosures issued yesterday, textile manufacturer VFS Thread Dyeing Ltd has been upgraded to the B category, while pharmaceutical company Techno Drugs Ltd has been restored to the A category.

Both companies were earlier downgraded to the Z category for failing to disburse declared dividends within the stipulated timeframe.

Under DSE listing rules, listed companies are required to disburse dividends within 30 days of shareholder approval. In a directive issued in May 2024, the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) mandated that companies failing to pay at least 80% of the approved dividend within the specified time would be downgraded to the Z category.

VFS thread dyeing

VFS Thread Dyeing, which was listed on the bourse in 2018, was downgraded to the Z category on 24 September 2024 after failing to disburse its declared dividend for FY23 within the required timeframe.

The company declared no dividend for FY24. However, for FY25, its board announced a 0.25% cash dividend for general shareholders, excluding sponsors and directors. As per the declaration, general shareholders were entitled to receive Tk18.27 lakh as dividend.

Following approval at its annual general meeting (AGM) held on 30 December, the company completed the dividend disbursement. After receiving the dividend compliance report, the DSE upgraded VFS Thread Dyeing to the B category from the Z category, effective 15 February.

Techno drugs

Techno Drugs, which was listed in 2024, was downgraded to the Z category on 3 February for failing to disburse at least 80% of its approved dividend within the mandated timeframe.

For FY25, the company declared a 10% cash dividend for general shareholders, excluding sponsors and directors, amounting to Tk4.92 crore.

Although shareholders approved the dividend at the AGM held on 24 December, the company failed to complete the disbursement within one month.

Subsequently, after submitting the dividend compliance report to the DSE, the bourse reinstated Techno Drugs shares to the A category.

National Feed Mill Limited has recommended a marginal cash dividend of 0.10%—equivalent to 1 paisa per share—for the fiscal year ended 30 June 2025, marking its first dividend declaration in two years.

The decision comes after the company failed to recommend any dividend in the previous two fiscal years, a lapse that resulted in its classification under the Z-category, commonly known as junk stocks.

According to a price-sensitive statement filed with the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) today (10 February), the cash dividend will be payable only to general shareholders, excluding sponsors and directors.

The date, time and venue of the annual general meeting, along with the record date, will be announced later.

The company reported earnings per share of Tk0.03 for FY25, a notable improvement from a loss per share of Tk0.71 in the previous year. Its net asset value per share stood at Tk11.09 at the end of June 2025, slightly higher than Tk11.07 a year earlier, while net operating cash flow per share remained unchanged at Tk0.12.

The firm disclosed that its sponsors and directors hold 28.38 million shares out of a total of 93.36 million shares. As a result, the total cash dividend payable to general shareholders will amount to Tk6.49 lakh.

Despite the dividend announcement, investor sentiment remained cautious, with National Feed Mill's share price falling by 5.41% today to close at Tk14 at the DSE.

The company was listed on the stock exchanges in 2015 after raising Tk18 crore through an initial public offering, issuing 1.8 crore shares with a face value of Tk10 each. The IPO proceeds were primarily allocated to repaying loans and supporting business expansion.

According to the fund utilisation plan, 40% of the proceeds were allocated to repaying loans, 45% to expansion, 5% to working capital, and the rest to IPO-related expenses. The issue was managed by ICB Capital and PLFS Investments.

However, concerns over the company's financial health persists. In its audit opinion on the FY24 financial statements, auditor Islam Quazi Shafique & Co flagged discrepancies in reported long-term loans. While the company disclosed Tk63.51 crore in long-term borrowings, the auditor was able to verify only Tk61.55 crore, citing non-responses from banks to confirmation requests.

Meanwhile, sources said Bank Asia attempted to auction National Feed Mill's assets in June 2025 to recover defaulted loans amounting to Tk47 crore, but the effort failed. The development underscores the company's persistent financial strain despite its latest dividend declaration.

Gold prices rose more than 2 percent on Friday and were headed for a weekly gain as weaker-than-expected US inflation data reignited hopes for Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, offsetting concerns from stronger-than-expected jobs data earlier in the week.

Spot gold was up 2.1 percent at $5,022.06 per ounce as of 01:30 p.m. ET (1830 GMT), and up 1.2 percent so far this week. Bullion fell about 3 percent on Thursday, hitting its lowest in nearly a week.

US gold futures for April delivery settled about 2 percent higher at $5,046.30 per ounce.

“Gold, and particularly silver, is enjoying a relief rally after a mild January CPI reading eased nerves stoked by Wednesday’s strong employment report,” said Tai Wong, an independent metals trader.

CPI COMES IN LOWER THAN EXPECTED

Spot silver climbed 3.4 percent to $77.70 per ounce, snapping back from an 11 percent decline in the previous session. It was on track for a weekly loss of 0.3 percent. The US Consumer Price Index rose 0.2 percent in January, below economists’ expectations of a 0.3 percent increase, following an unrevised 0.3 percent gain in December, the Labor Department said.

Market participants currently anticipate a total of 63 basis points in rate cuts this year, with the first expected in July, according to data compiled by LSEG.

Non-yielding bullion tends to do well in low-interest-rate environments. Meanwhile, data on Wednesday showed the United States added 130,000 jobs in January, compared with analysts’ estimates of 70,000.

China’s gold demand stayed strong ahead of the Lunar New Year, while in India, the market flipped to a discount.

ANZ analysts raised their second-quarter gold forecast to $5,800/oz from $5,400, citing its appeal as an insurance asset, while noting that silver, though still supported by strong investment demand, may see its recent outperformance fade as industrial buyers balk at higher prices.

The World Bank (WB) has approved $370 million in financing to improve sanitation and solid waste management services to reduce water pollution and restore rivers and canals in and around Dhaka.

The Metro Dhaka Water Security and Resilience Program aims to strengthen the capacity of local and national institutions to curb pollution in greater Dhaka, a region that generates one-third of the country’s GDP and half of its formal employment, according to a press release.

The program introduces a results-based system to help city corporations and the Dhaka Water Supply and Sewerage Authority (Wasa) deliver measurable improvements.

It is expected to provide safely managed sanitation services to 550,000 people and improve solid waste management to 500,000 people, focusing on communities most affected by service gaps.

“Waterbodies are the lifeline for millions of people in greater Dhaka. But rapid, unplanned urbanisation and industrial growth have outpaced the city's capacity to manage wastewater and pollution,” said Jean Pesme, World Bank division director for Bangladesh and Bhutan.

Currently, only about 20 percent of Dhaka residents have piped sewer connections, while over 80 percent of untreated wastewater is discharged into waterways. More than half of the city’s canals have disappeared or remain clogged.

The industrial sector also contributes significantly to the crisis. More than 7,000 factories release an estimated 2,400 million litres of untreated wastewater daily.

The program will mobilise private sector participation to scale up industrial effluent treatment and water reuse.

Harsh Goyal, WB senior water supply and sanitation specialist, said the phase will prioritise a comprehensive water quality index and digital real-time monitoring for four major Dhaka rivers.

The first phase will cover selected areas in Dhaka and Narayanganj, focusing on upgrading recycling systems and enforcing pollution-control measures to stop solid waste dumping and direct sewage discharge.

Bangladesh's capital market is showing signs of recovery, but its long-term growth will depend on post-election political stability, structural reforms, and sustained regulatory improvements, the central bank said yesterday.

In its monetary policy statement for January–June 2026, Bangladesh Bank (BB) said the market exhibited an upward trajectory in the first half of FY26 despite occasional fluctuations, driven by a sharp increase in turnover that signals a revival of market momentum.

The DSEX index, the benchmark of the capital market, rose 0.6% to 4,865 points at the end of December 2025, up from 4,838 points in June.

The index gained further ground in the following weeks, crossing the 5,200 mark in early February 2026. Average daily turnover reached Tk650 crore in H1 FY26, up from Tk472 crore a year earlier, reflecting renewed investor confidence, BB said.

"These positive developments reflect revitalized market momentum, supported by ongoing reforms and a more favorable macroeconomic environment," the central bank said.

To further modernize the capital market, the government is pursuing measures including reducing state shareholdings in multinational companies, encouraging local firm listings, preventing market manipulation, and providing tax incentives.

BB also highlighted that the introduction of commodity exchanges and blockchain-based back-office systems is expected to improve transparency and bolster investor confidence. Coordinated efforts by the Ministry of Finance and other stakeholders are seen as essential to deepen financial markets and develop a more efficient debt market.

Regulatory Reforms to Boost Stability

The central bank noted recent amendments by the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC), which aim to enhance market stability, build investor confidence, and support long-term development. Among these, the Margin Rules 2025 strengthen risk management in margin trading, while proposed updates to IPO, Mutual Fund, and Public Issue Rules are intended to improve transparency and governance.

BSEC has also introduced faster investor dispute resolution mechanisms, established a Shariah Advisory Council to expand Islamic capital market products, and adjusted compliance timelines for brokers to reduce market stress, BB said.

Bond Market Developments

In the secondary market, a total of 232 government treasury bonds were actively traded until December 2025. During the month, the government raised Tk240 billion through six investment Sukuk, enabling banks and non-bank financial institutions including Islamic banks to meet statutory liquidity requirements and participate more actively in monetary management.

To strengthen the secondary market and establish a market-based yield curve, Bangladesh Bank has mandated that Primary Dealers provide two-way price quotes for Treasury bonds within the first hour of each business day, with compliance expected by 31 January 2026.

Shares of Bay Leasing and Investment Limited surged yesterday to the day's upper circuit after the non-bank financial institution reported a sharp reduction in losses for the July-September quarter of 2025, signalling improvement in its quarterly performance despite long-term challenges.

According to a price sensitive statement filed with the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE), the company's consolidated net loss declined by 80% year-on-year to Tk4.79 crore during the third quarter of 2025.

In the same quarter a year earlier, the company had posted a higher loss, with its loss per share narrowing to Tk0.34 from Tk1.67 over the period, reflecting better cost management.

The quarterly improvement was supported by a modest rise in interest income and a sharp fall in funding costs. Interest income edged up by 1% to Tk15.23 crore, while interest expenses on deposits and other borrowings dropped by 36% to Tk22.53 crore.

Market participants viewed the decline in interest expenses as a positive development, especially at a time when many non-bank financial institutions continue to struggle with high funding costs and asset quality issues.

Following the disclosure, the company's share price rose by 10% to Tk4.40, hitting the daily circuit breaker on the Dhaka bourse.

Traders said the stock attracted speculative buying interest on expectations that the company may be gradually stabilising its operations after several years of sustained losses.

However, the broader financial picture remains challenging. In the first nine months from January to September 2025, Bay Leasing's consolidated net loss widened by 31% to Tk47 crore, mainly due to heavy losses incurred during the first half of the year. As a result, its consolidated loss per share stood at Tk3.35 at the end of the nine-month period.

The company's balance sheet continues to reflect significant stress, with accumulated negative retained earnings amounting to Tk658.85 crore. This dragged its consolidated net asset value to a negative Tk28.55 per share, underscoring the depth of its financial difficulties.

The company has not declared any dividend since 2020, when it last paid a 10% cash dividend. Since then, the company has remained in the red every year.

Listed on the stock exchanges in 2009, Bay Leasing's shareholding structure shows sponsors and directors holding 18.30% of shares, while institutional investors own 23.98% and general investors hold the remaining 57.72%, according to its latest shareholding report.

Bangladesh's financial account recorded a surplus of $2.04 billion in the first six months of the current fiscal year, driven by higher net foreign direct investment (FDI) and increased trade credit.

According to the Balance of Payments (BOP) data released by the Bangladesh Bank today (9 February), the surplus during July–December of FY26 marks a sharp improvement from $525 million in the same period of the previous fiscal year.

At the same time, the country's current account deficit narrowed to $343 million in the first half of FY26, down from a deficit of $518 million a year earlier, supported mainly by strong remittance inflows of $16.6 billion.

Supported by the strong financial account surplus, Bangladesh's overall balance of payments recorded a surplus of $1.94 billion in July–December FY26, compared to a deficit of $467 million in the same period last year.

The current account is a key component of the balance of payments (BOP), reflecting a country's trade in goods and services, income from abroad, and current transfers such as remittances.

Bangladesh Bank data show that the trade deficit widened by 18.34% year-on-year to $11.55 billion during July–December FY26, compared to $9.76 billion in the same period last year. Imports rose by 5% to $33.67 billion, while exports grew by only 0.9% to $22.12 billion.

A senior Bangladesh Bank official said the rise in imports was mainly driven by higher purchases of consumer goods and capital machinery. Imports of consumer goods increased by 10.32%, while capital machinery imports jumped by 23.64%.

Zahid Hussain, former lead economist at the World Bank's Dhaka office, told The Business Standard that trade credit and net aid flows were the two main factors behind the strong financial account performance.

He explained that trade credit often turns negative when exports rise, but weaker export growth and higher deferred import payments have pushed it into surplus this time.

Remittance inflows in the first half of FY26 were about $2.5 billion higher than a year earlier. However, the trade deficit was roughly $1.79 billion wider, offsetting much of the remittance gain and limiting the improvement in the current account, according to him.

"The deterioration is primarily due to the widening trade deficit," Zahid Hussain said.

"Imports have increased, which in itself is not bad for the economy, but exports have not grown accordingly. In fact, export growth has fallen below 1%, widening the trade deficit and weighing on the current account."

He added, "An increase in imports is not a bad thing for the economy; rather, it is a sign of a healthy economy."

"A decline in exports, however, is detrimental. Therefore, I believe it is essential to work on increasing the country's exports in the coming days," the economist said.

Bangladesh Bank Governor Ahsan H Mansur has said he did not face any pressure from the government or any quarter while discharging his duties during the tenure of the interim government.

"During my time as governor under the interim government, I did not feel any kind of pressure from any side. Rather, there was operational freedom and no interference whatsoever. This can be stated without hesitation," the governor said while speaking to journalists at the announcement of the monetary policy today (9 February).

However, he noted that despite submitting recommendations for several important laws to the government, they were not implemented. One of them was the Bangladesh Bank Order.

"In October, the Bangladesh Bank Order was sent to the Ministry of Finance for finalisation. Even though there was sufficient time, it could not be implemented. This has to be considered a failure, because it should have been done," he said.

He added that the second key legislation was the Bank Company Act. "This is also a very important law. We believed the current government would be able to implement it, but that did not happen. Therefore, we hope that whichever government comes next will honour the financial development commitments made in their election manifesto," he said.

The governor said these issues would be placed before the next government, stressing that implementation is necessary in the national interest.

"If these reforms are not carried out, the misuse and plundering of the banking sector that we saw in the past could return. Implementing the Bank Company Order as a permanent shield is essential. Central banks around the world are protected in this manner," he added.

Ahsan H Mansur also distinguished political and central banking priorities. "Politicians want to boost the economy quickly in the short term, whereas the responsibility of a central bank is to ensure sustainable development. This is what we see in the United States. If political pressure does not come onto the central bank, economic discipline will not be lost," he said.

He cautioned that while discipline has not yet been fully restored, losing it again would be unfortunate.

Referring to foreign exchange management, the governor said the central bank had purchased $4.5 billion from the market, injecting more than Tk50,000 crore into the economy.

"Through these purchases, reserves have been built up. Are we dependent on the IMF? No. Even in reserve building, the central bank is not dependent on the IMF," he said.

The US is using offtake deals and state-backed funding to compete in the short term with China in securing supplies of African copper, cobalt and other critical minerals, diplomats, executives and analysts said ahead of this week's Indaba.

Washington's focus is on Zambia, Guinea and Democratic Republic of Congo. The latter accounts for more than 70% of global cobalt supplies and produced some 3.3 million metric tons of copper in 2024.

Instead of placing US operators in high-risk countries, however, the US is leaning towards offtake and other trading structures such as one it has with Mercuria and arrangements it has with Congolese state miner Gécamines, to edge output into US-aligned value chains dominated by Chinese refiners.

Offtake is where a country or company secures rights to a share of a mine's output in exchange for financing or other support.

"We're already seeing US engagement reshape mineral flows out of Africa," said Thomas Scurfield, a senior analyst with nonprofit NRGI, ahead of the event in South Africa.

"The US is putting money behind its rhetoric, but it remains to be seen whether it can compete with China's scale and speed," Scurfield added.

Both Washington and Beijing are expected to seek new commitments at the Indaba mining event in Cape Town this week, with the US sounding out officials on its minerals bloc.

Central to the change, Gécamines is preparing to ship around 100,000 tons of its Tenke Fungurume copper allocation to US buyers this year after winning broader marketing rights in a 2023 renegotiation with China's CMOC.

Financial firepower rather than industrial presence

The US strategy stretches beyond copper.

Xiao Wenhao, analyst at Shanghai Metals Market, said China's cobalt supply chain also faces risks as Congo's export restrictions collide with expanding US–DRC cooperation.

Elsewhere, London-based Pensana ditched plans to build a rare earth refinery in Britain to process feedstock from its mine in Angola, shifting the project to the United States, citing stronger US incentives and price guarantees.

"This is the US deploying financial firepower rather than industrial presence," said Vincent Rouget, analyst at Control Risks. "With offtake and trading channels, Washington can redirect Congolese copper to American buyers without taking on the political or operational risks of running mines in the DRC."

Chinese firms still control many of Congo's biggest copper and cobalt assets, including Tenke Fungurume and Kamoa-Kakula, and have routed most output to China for refining for more than a decade.

Beyond copper and cobalt, Congo is emerging as a supplier of zinc, germanium and gallium.

New offtake arrangements position Gécamines as a leading zinc exporter and principal buyer of germanium and gallium concentrates, with the company recently recording its first export of locally processed germanium.

China versus the west

The contrast in capital deployment remains sharp.

KoBold Metals has staked more than 3,000 square kilometers in the lithium and copper belt, but will not advance projects which are entangled in disputes, stressing governance standards, its Congolese head Benjamin Katabuka told Reuters.

Chinese operators, by contrast, have proceeded on contested ground, reinforcing their speed‑to‑market advantage.

At Manono, one of the world's largest undeveloped lithium deposits, KoBold says it will not move until ownership issues are resolved, even as Zijin advances infrastructure on the northern block.

If it secures the southern block cleanly, KoBold says production could start within three years.

In Guinea, China‑backed Winning Consortium Simandou pushed ahead with rail and port construction at the giant Simandou despite ownership disputes, effectively forcing Rio Tinto to fall in line.