Dhaka division remained the largest recipient of remittances in December, receiving nearly half of the total inflows, as migrant earnings continued to strengthen foreign currency reserves and support millions of households, according to a report by Bangladesh Bank (BB).

In December 2025, the Dhaka division received $1.60 billion, accounting for 49.93 percent of the country’s total remittances.

Chattogram division ranked second, receiving $958.45 million, or 29.73 percent of the total, while the Sylhet division came third with $267.63 million, representing 8.30 percent.

“In the current political and economic situation, marked by inflation, exchange rate fluctuations, and higher import costs, remittances have provided much-needed relief by strengthening foreign currency reserves and supporting millions of households across the country,” the central bank said in its monthly report.

District-level data showed that Dhaka district received the highest remittances at $1.15 billion. Other major recipients included Chattogram district with $360.56 million, Cumilla district with $181.89 million, and Sylhet district with $146.02 million.

Among source countries, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates were the top two, sending $489.41 million and $476.04 million, respectively. The United Kingdom ranked third, contributing $404.21 million during the month.

Bangladesh Bank said remittances have been essential for maintaining economic stability amid global uncertainty and domestic challenges. It added that overseas employment plays a key role in reducing poverty and unemployment in a densely populated country like Bangladesh.

Data from the Bureau of Manpower, Employment, and Training showed that 18.07 million people received licences for overseas employment between 1976 and December 2025.

Total remittances reached $3,223.67 million in December 2025, marking a 22.17 percent increase compared to the same month a year earlier.

During the first half of the current fiscal year (July-December 2025-26), remittance inflows rose to $16,261.17 million, which was 46.01 percent higher than in the same period of the previous fiscal year.

Among scheduled banks, Islami Bank Bangladesh PLC received the highest remittances, handling $671.87 million in December. Bangladesh Krishi Bank and Janata Bank PLC ranked second and third, processing $353.52 million and $281.86 million, respectively.

The central bank said that remittance inflows usually increase during religious festivals and towards the end of the calendar and fiscal year.

The Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) has fined The City Bank, its fund manager, and five individuals for manipulating the shares of Agni Systems over a five-month trading period in 2024.

According to the regulator's monthly enforcement action report for January, City Bank has been fined Tk1 lakh despite incurring a capital loss of Tk1.55 crore from trades conducted during the investigation period.

Sanowar Khan, the bank's portfolio manager at the time, has been fined Tk1.51 crore against a capital gain of Tk1.53 crore.

His wife, Asmaul Husna, who earned Tk15 lakh, has been fined Tk1 lakh, while his brother, Anwer Parvez Khan, has been fined Tk2 lakh against a gain of Tk2.46 lakh.

Among the other individuals penalised, Abu Taher Shikder has been fined Tk62 lakh against a gain of Tk65.46 lakh. Umma Salma Nipa, who incurred a loss of Tk11.43 lakh, has been fined Tk2 lakh, and Biplob Sheikh has been fined Tk4.30 lakh against a gain of Tk4.77 lakh.

The BSEC said the manipulation took place between 25 June and 18 November 2024. During the 68 trading sessions under review, the total buy volume stood at 4.61 crore shares, while the sell volume amounted to 3.87 crore shares. Over the period, Agni Systems' share price rose sharply from Tk24.5 on 25 June to Tk41.2 on 10 October, marking a 68% increase. The price later declined to Tk28.8 by 18 November.

After reviewing trade monitoring data from the surveillance department of the Dhaka Stock Exchange, the regulator found that the accused parties were heavily involved in trading Agni Systems shares and conducted a series of transactions that influenced the share price on multiple dates.

According to the commission, the individuals violated the Securities and Exchange Ordinance, 1969 by directly and indirectly executing a series of transactions that created an artificial appearance of active trading and drove up the price of the shares.

In its response to the BSEC's show-cause notice, City Bank stated that its capital market portfolio had previously been managed by City Bank Capital Resources Limited, a wholly owned subsidiary.

Sanowar Khan was appointed as capital market fund manager with effect from 10 June 2024 and was granted authority to oversee stock market trading activities, making him solely responsible for share trading and securities analysis.

The bank claimed that Sanowar did not disclose his personal trading activities or those conducted by his relatives. It said it only became aware of these transactions following the commission's show-cause notice dated 18 August 2025. Monitoring independent personal or institutional trading activities falls outside the scope of the bank's capital market portfolio oversight, the bank added, asserting that it had no knowledge of or influence over the trades executed in the accounts of Khan or his relatives.

City Bank further noted that while it incurred a realised loss of Tk1.55 crore from Agni Systems trades during the investigation period, the fund manager and his family members made a combined realised gain of Tk1.70 crore.

Following receipt of the BSEC's enquiry letters, the bank said it removed Sanowar from the fund manager position with effect from 19 August 2025. It also reviewed its investment policy and introduced stricter ethical guidelines governing personal or associated trading activities.

The enforcement action comes amid the regulator's continued efforts to curb market manipulation and restore investor confidence through closer surveillance and stricter penalties for violations in the capital market.

The government’s development expenditure in the first seven months of the current fiscal year 2025-26 (FY26) has slumped to its lowest level in at least 16 years amid fiscal restraints and political disruptions.

Ministries and divisions spent just Tk 50,556 crore – a mere 21.18 percent of the total Annual Development Programme (ADP) outlay – during the period, shows Implementation Monitoring and Evaluation Division (IMED) data published yesterday.

During the same period in FY25, when operations were disrupted by a mass uprising and administrative instability, the ADP implementation rate stood at 21.52 percent. The rates were 27.11 percent and 28.16 percent in FY24 and FY23, respectively.

The slowdown is particularly acute in the health sector, which has recorded dismal implementation rates despite growing concerns about healthcare accessibility.

The Medical Education and Family Welfare Division has utilised only 2.98 percent of its allocation, while the Health Services Division has managed just 6.59 percent, according to the IMED.

Md Deen Islam, research director at Research and Policy Integration for Development (RAPID), blamed lackings in “institutional capacity” for the slow spending.

“The underperformance in the health sector reflects deeper governance challenges. In many cases, those in charge hesitate to take bold decisions, particularly when procurement-related scrutiny creates a climate of fear. That affects implementation,” he added.

The underperformance comes as Bangladesh continues to grapple with one of the world’s highest rates of out-of-pocket health expenditure.

This has led to a “structural vulnerability that demands urgent policy attention,” Islam said.

“A single chronic or terminal illness can push a non-poor family into poverty,” he warned, citing data from the Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey showing stagnation in key health indicators.

He emphasised that without immediate increases in health investment and execution, Bangladesh risks falling further behind on crucial development metrics.

The broader spending slump reflects multiple headwinds. For the current fiscal year, the government allocated Tk 238,695 crore for the ADP, including funds from autonomous bodies.

However, during the July-January period, utilisation of both state funds and foreign loans has declined sharply.

Foreign fund spending fell to approximately Tk 18,668 crore, while government funds amounted to Tk 28,052 crore, down from Tk 30,096 crore in FY25.

This deceleration comes as the interim government implemented a reduced, austerity-focused ADP that slowed or postponed certain projects initiated by the previous administration.

Planning ministry officials note that several contractors fled the country before completing their work following the mid-2024 political changeover, further hampering implementation.

RAPID’s Islam largely agreed, noting that smaller projects may have received less attention as larger initiatives were prioritised.

Infrastructure sectors have fared considerably better than social services.

Among the top 15 recipients of allocations, the Ministry of Water Resources achieved the highest implementation rate at 41.10 percent, followed by the Energy and Mineral Resources Division with 40.66 percent, and the Local Government Division with 36.91 percent.

For Islam, the health shortfall is particularly worrying given Bangladesh’s demographic outlook.

He warned, “Within 15 to 20 years, Bangladesh will gradually transition into an ageing society. Without adequate investment in health infrastructure and human resources, fiscal pressure will intensify.”

He urged authorities to view health spending through an economic lens, noting that Bangladesh maintains a low ratio of nurses and support staff compared to doctors.

“Expanding this workforce would improve service delivery while generating jobs. Health investment is not just social spending, it is also an economic strategy,” he said.

However, Islam said ADP implementation may accelerate under the newly elected political government.

A modest uptick in January offered limited encouragement. The month recorded 3.64 percent implementation of the revised ADP, marginally up from 3.55 percent in January 2024.

“As an elected party, the BNP will have to deliver on its pledges, including job creation, expanding health services, and reducing out-of-pocket costs,” Islam said.

Ashikur Rahman, principal economist at the Policy Research Institute of Bangladesh, concurred that a full-fledged political government could help strengthen ADP spending by accelerating countrywide development activities.

The reciprocal trade deal signed by the interim government with the United States has raised questions regarding the economic sovereignty of Bangladesh, especially in decisions on trade, energy and security.

Critics point to several binding and conditional clauses that allow Washington to terminate the agreement and restore steep tariffs if its concerns are not addressed.

For example, take the digital trade facilitation provision in the deal.

The agreement says that if Bangladesh signs a new digital trade deal with any country that jeopardises essential US interests, Washington may terminate the pact and reimpose the 37 percent reciprocal tariff on Bangladeshi exports.

That was the tariff rate the US had proposed in April 2025.

The same condition applies if Bangladesh enters into a new bilateral free trade or preferential agreement with what the US terms “a non-market country” -- nations it does not recognise as market economies.

The agreement says that if consultations with Bangladesh fail to resolve American concerns, the United States may withdraw from the deal and reinstate the 37 percent tariff.

The rate is high enough to sharply reduce Bangladesh’s exports to the US, a costly prospect given that the country earns roughly one-fifth of its export revenue from garments and other goods sold to American buyers.

The deal, signed on February 9 between the interim government and the Trump administration, also restricts Bangladesh from purchasing “any nuclear reactors, fuel rods, or enriched uranium from a country that jeopardises essential US interests”.

An exception applies to “the procurement of proprietary materials for which there are no alternative suppliers or technologies, or materials contracted prior to the entry into force of this agreement required for existing reactors”.

This suggests that supplies for the Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant, built with Russian technical and financial support through Russian state corporation Rosatom, may continue.

But any future nuclear project could fall under tighter scrutiny.

Citing the section on economic and national security, BRAC Executive Director Asif Saleh, in a Facebook post, said, “This is the most important and controversial part of the agreement, as it raises questions about ‘sovereignty’.”

The section adds, “The United States shall work with Bangladesh to streamline and enhance defence trade.”

On the nuclear restriction, Saleh said, “This could create risks for Bangladesh’s energy security.”

The deal also opens the door for US direct investment to “explore, mine, extract, refine, process, transport, distribute and export critical mineral resources”.

In addition, Bangladesh is required to purchase $3.5 billion worth of American agricultural products. This includes at least 700,000 tonnes of wheat annually for five years, at least $1.25 billion or 2.6 million tonnes of soy and soy products, and cotton.

Bangladesh shall also need to buy 14 Boeing aircraft initially and $15 billion worth of liquefied natural gas (LNG) over 15 years, apart from increased purchases of US military equipment and limits on defence equipment purchases from certain countries.

“It appears more like an imposed purchasing obligation than free trade,” said Saleh. “Regardless of Bangladesh’s actual needs or capacity, it effectively ensures profits for US companies.”

Mustafizur Rahman, distinguished fellow at local think tank Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), said bulk commodities in Bangladesh are usually imported by private sector businesses, not the government.

If traders can source goods more cheaply elsewhere, he asked, why would they buy from the United States?

In that case, Rahman said the government may have to offer incentives to persuade private importers to purchase American products, adding to fiscal pressure.

In an interview with The Daily Star last week, Professor Selim Raihan, executive director of the South Asian Network on Economic Modeling (Sanem), said that Bangladesh could be compelled to buy more expensive goods even when cheaper alternatives are available.

“If we find a cheaper source elsewhere, we may not be able to choose it,” he said. “This will put additional pressure on our foreign exchange.”

“How are we going to finance aircraft purchases and energy imports? There is a risk of increased reliance on foreign loans,” Raihan said.

Anwar-ul Alam Chowdhury (Parvez), president of the Bangladesh Chamber of Industries, said the agreement indicates that Bangladesh should reduce its dependence on China for raw materials.

The deal also contains a provision on Rules of Origin. It says that if the benefits of the agreement accrue substantially to third countries or their nationals, either party may establish Rules of Origin to reflect the intention of the agreement.

Parvez said the third country clause should have been defined more clearly.

The agreement has not been made public, with officials citing a non-disclosure provision. Amid growing concern, the Chief Adviser’s Office said in a statement that it had inserted “an exit clause” into the deal.

“There was no scope for any country to terminate the agreement,” it added. The statement did not clarify whether Bangladesh exports would again face a 37 percent tariff, up from 19 percent, if the agreement were terminated.

On the occasion of Ramadan, trading at the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) will begin at 10am and continue until 1:40pm, while the post-closing session will be held from 1:40pm to 1:50pm.

Official office hours at the DSE will run from 9am to 3:30pm.

Under the regular schedule, DSE trading typically takes place from 10am to 2:30pm.

Green Delta Insurance has announced a 27% cash dividend for the financial year ending 31 December 2025, an increase from the 25% payout provided to shareholders the previous year.

The dividend recommendation was made during a board meeting on Sunday, prompting a positive market reaction yesterday as the company's share price rose by 2.28% to close at Tk58.90 on the Dhaka Stock Exchange.

To approve the dividend and audited financial statements, the company will conduct an annual general meeting (AGM) on 31 March. The record date is 8 March.

In 2025, the company's consolidated earnings per share (EPS) stood at Tk5.44, which was up from Tk5.39 compared to the same period of the previous year.

Its consolidated net asset value per share stood at Tk70.53 end of December 2025. Its consolidated net operating cash flow per share rose by Tk7.72 in 2025 compared to 2024, mainly due to higher premium income and better investment returns.

The company has announced that the Board of Directors of Green Delta Insurance has approved a decision to acquire a 40% equity stake in Green Delta Dragon Asset Management Co Ltd.

The shares will be purchased from Dragon Capital Management (HK) Ltd, which currently holds that portion of the asset management company.

Following the completion of the transaction, Green Delta Insurance will increase its ownership in Green Delta Dragon Asset Management, strengthening its position in the asset management business and expanding its footprint in the financial services sector. The acquisition is subject to the completion of necessary regulatory and corporate approvals.

Listed on the stock exchange since 1989, Green Delta Insurance's shareholding structure, according to DSE data as of 29 January 2026, comprises sponsors and directors holding 30.58%, institutional investors 21.95%, foreign investors 4.60%, and general shareholders 41.87%.

Stocks in Bangladesh saw a slight correction yesterday after a consecutive three-day rise, mainly due to a profit-booking tendency among investors.

Correction refers to a short- to medium-term decline of 10 percent or more, but less than 20 percent, in a major index or individual stock from its recent peak.

It acts as a market reset, revaluing overvalued assets back to their long-term trend, and is often considered a healthy, temporary pullback rather than a long-term recession.

The DSEX, the benchmark index of the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE), fell 11 points, or 0.19 percent, to 5,589. The DS30, the index of blue-chip companies, dropped 9 points to 2,135, while the shariah-based DSES declined 8 points to 1,118.

With all the indices falling, DSE turnover also fell 1.4 percent, to Tk 1,257 crore. Among the traded stocks, 153 advanced, 218 declined, and 26 remained unchanged.

A top official of a leading brokerage firm said there was slight selling pressure on the well-performing stocks that had surged in the previous three trading days. Some of these companies advanced by 10 to 15 percent during that period, so it is common for investors to book profits.

As the turnover was high, it shows that there were enough buyers for these shares. A trend was seen in the market where low-performing companies have been rising for several days, including yesterday, which is not a good sign for the market, he added.

By rising around 10 percent, New Line Clothing, Bangladesh Industrial Finance, and S Alam Cold Rolled Steel Mills made it to the top gainers’ list. All three companies belong to the Z category.

On the other hand, ICB Islamic Bank, Prime Textile, and Ring Shine were the top losers, dropping 10 percent, 6 percent, and 5 percent respectively.

Although all indices of the DSE fell, the major index of the Chittagong Stock Exchange (CSE), CASPI, rose. It gained 7 points to reach 15,526. Among the traded issues, 116 rose, 90 fell, and 22 remained unchanged.

GPH Ispat Ltd's sponsor Mohammed Almas Shimul is set to transfer 2 crore shares to his son and daughter, both general shareholders of the company, marking the entry of the second generation into the company's shareholding structure.

Currently, Almas Shimul, additional managing director of GPH Ispat, holds around 5.24 crore shares, equivalent to 10.82% of the company's total outstanding shares.

In a disclosure posted on the stock exchange website yesterday, he expressed his intention to transfer a 4.13% stake — one crore shares each — to his daughter, Sobha Soha, and son, Saihan Sadik Pial, as a gift.

Following completion of the transfer, each recipient will hold a 2.06% stake in the company. Based on the current market price, the value of the two crore shares stands at approximately Tk35 crore as of yesterday, its shares are traded at Tk17.50 each at the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE).

The disclosure said the shares will be transferred as gifts outside the exchange's trading system within 30 working days after approval from the Chittagong Stock Exchange.

In January 2025, Mohammed Jahangir Alam, sponsor and managing director of GPH Ispat, transferred 2.5 crore shares — 1.25 crore each — from his 11.41 crore holding to Sadman Syka Sefa and Salehin Musfique Sadaf, both general shareholders of the company.

A recent example is Crown Cement PLC, one of Bangladesh's leading cement manufacturers, which is entering a new phase of leadership as second-generation members of its sponsor families assume board-level roles — a transition that signals a significant shift in the company's long-term governance and succession planning.

According to the company's annual report for FY25, Crown Cement has appointed two second-generation directors to its board – Solaiman Kabir, son of Vice Chairman Alamgir Kabir, and Mushsharat Mahajabin, daughter of sponsor director and Additional Managing Director Mizanur Rahman Mollah.

In April last year, Alamgir Kabir transferred 29.70 lakh shares to his son, while Mizanur Rahman Mollah gifted 30 lakh shares to his daughter through transactions executed on the DSE.

GPH Ispat manufactures and trades iron, steel and other metallic or allied materials. Its factory commenced the commercial production on 21 August 2008.

The company reported revenue of Tk2,361 crore in the first half of the current fiscal year, down from Tk2,884 crore in the same period a year earlier.

Profit fell sharply to Tk4.55 crore from Tk31.38 crore year-on-year. For FY25, the company incurred a loss of Tk8.71 crore, though it still paid a 5% cash dividend to shareholders.

The indices of the Dhaka Stock Exchange snapped their election-driven rally today (16 February), ending a three-session winning streak, as cautious investors moved to lock in profits and shifted funds to lucrative, undervalued, and promising stocks on the trading floor.

The benchmark DSEX went down 11 points to close at 5,590. The blue-chip DS30 index decreased 9 points to settle at 2,136, while the Shariah-based DSES shed 9 points to end at 1,119.

Market turnover decreased 0.39% to Tk1,270 crore, down from Tk1,275 crore in the previous session. Of the 397 issues traded, 153 advanced, 218 declined, and 26 remained unchanged.

According to market insiders, the stock market began to climb a few days ahead of the election, with the upward trend continuing for three consecutive trading sessions. Many investors took positions in anticipation of greater political stability after the election.

However, as several formalities related to the formation of the new government are still pending, cautious investors chose to book profits yesterday after the recent rally. Following several days of gains, they locked in returns and moved to a more defensive stance. At the same time, there was visible activity in switching funds into undervalued, fundamentally strong, and promising companies.

Prior to the election, the market had been under pressure for an extended period due to multiple uncertainties. Over the past year, prolonged political uncertainty and several regulatory decisions that failed to restore investor confidence contributed to a sustained downturn. Many retail investors exited the market, while institutional and high-net-worth investors largely remained inactive. As a result, share prices of even fundamentally sound companies declined significantly.

Market analysts say political uncertainty was the primary driver of investor sentiment during this period. Because of that uncertainty, large investors were reluctant to take risks, which kept overall trading volumes subdued and reduced market depth.

Now that the election has been completed and a new political government is set to assume responsibility, analysts believe the situation could gradually improve. If policy stability is ensured and consistency in decision-making is maintained, investor confidence is likely to return. That, in turn, could encourage greater participation from large investors, increase trading volumes, and pave the way for a stronger recovery in the capital market.

According to analysts, a stable political environment would also create a more favorable climate for business and investment, ultimately supporting further growth in the stock market.

The Telecommunication sector posted the highest loss, declining by 1.56%, followed by Engineering at 0.81%, Food and Allied at 0.77%, Fuel and Power at 0.35%, Bank at 0.31%, and NBFI at 0.10%. In contrast, the Pharmaceutical sector edged up by 0.13%. Block trades accounted for 2.6% of the total market turnover.

The Chittagong Stock Exchange closed on a mixed note. The CSCX index fell 14 points to 9,541, while the CASPI index rose 6 points to finish at 15,526, reflecting mixed sentiment across the market.

The National Board of Revenue (NBR) has extended the deadline for submitting online VAT returns for the January 2026 tax period through its e-VAT system until 22 February, citing public interest.

According to an official order, the extension was granted due to a prolonged spell of government holidays surrounding Shab-e-Barat and the 13th national election, which limited business operations and affected compliance activities.

In addition, taxpayers faced further difficulties on 15 February when the OTP server of the e-Challan system experienced downtime, preventing many from completing their return submissions on time.

In view of these circumstances, the revenue authority exercised its legal powers under Section 64 (1A) of the Value Added Tax and Supplementary Duty Act, 2012 to allow additional time for filing returns.

The decision aims to ensure that businesses and VAT-registered entities are not penalised for delays caused by factors beyond their control.

Officials said the extended timeline will help taxpayers complete the submission process smoothly after disruptions linked to the holidays and technical issues.

The NBR urged all VAT-registered entities to use the extended period responsibly and submit their January 2026 returns within the new timeframe to avoid penalties and ensure compliance with tax regulations.

The Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) has issued a query to Dulamia Cotton Spinning Mills, a listed textile company, for failing to submit its dividend distribution compliance report within the stipulated timeframe.

Under the rules of the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) and Regulation 29 of the listing regulations, listed companies are required to submit a dividend compliance report to both the exchange and the commission within seven working days of completing dividend payments.

Shareholders of Dulamia Cotton approved a 3% cash dividend for FY25 at the annual general meeting (AGM) held on 3 December. Following shareholder approval, the company was required to disburse the dividend within one month and file the compliance report within seven working days.

However, the DSE said the company failed to submit the report in accordance with regulatory requirements, prompting the issuance of a query letter.

According to DSE data, Dulamia Cotton has remained non-operational since 14 June 2020. Despite having no revenue in the first half of the current fiscal year due to continued closure, the company reported a profit of Tk22 lakh, with earnings per share (EPS) of Tk0.29 for the July-December period.

In the corresponding period of the previous fiscal year, it posted a profit of Tk17 lakh and EPS of Tk0.23. Notably, although the company has no active operations, its share price has continued to rise. The stock closed at Tk138.5 yesterday, up from Tk124.4 on 25 January.

Import letters of credit (LCs) opened in January climbed to $6.61 billion – the highest in 11 months – as businesses stepped up purchases ahead of the national election and the fasting month of Ramadan.

A senior official of the Bangladesh Bank confirmed the figures, adding that LC openings in January last year stood at $6.85 billion. LC settlements in January this year amounted to $6.16 billion.

Bankers and central bank officials, while talking to TBS, attributed the surge to increased imports of essential commodities ahead of Ramadan and a renewed sense of business confidence surrounding the February elections. Traders also brought in some capital machinery in anticipation of improved economic conditions.

Mohammad Ali, managing director and CEO of Pubali Bank, said LC openings typically rise before Ramadan due to higher imports of consumer goods.

"Rice, pulses, edible oil, and dates are imported in larger quantities ahead of the fasting month. LC openings generally increase during this period compared to other months," he said.

Syed Mahbubur Rahman, managing director and CEO of Mutual Trust Bank, said imports of essential commodities have increased in preparation for Ramadan, while the February elections created some optimism among businesses, prompting limited imports of capital machinery.

"If the overall business environment improves, new investments will follow, which will further boost imports of capital equipment," he said, adding that banks currently have adequate dollar liquidity.

Mahbubur further said, "There is no shortage of dollars, and businesses can access foreign currency to open LCs as needed."

However, a treasury head at a private bank noted that private sector credit growth has slowed since August 2024, reflecting subdued new investment and trade activity.

"Without new business expansion, demand for capital machinery remains limited, which in turn affects LC openings," he said.

Essential food items in high demand during Ramadan include rice, wheat, edible oil, sugar, lentils, onions, garlic, chickpeas and dates.

According to the Ministry of Commerce, demand during Ramadan alone is estimated at 3,00,000 tonnes for soybean oil, 3,00,000 tonnes for sugar, 5,00,000 tonnes for onions, 1,50,000-200,000 tonnes for chickpeas, and 60,000-80,000 tonnes for dates.

Data from the National Board of Revenue show that over the past four months, imports included 2,25,000 tonnes of onions, 3,70,000 tonnes of sugar, 47,000 tonnes of dates, 2,05,000 tonnes of lentils, nearly 4,00,000 tonnes of crude soybean oil and 1,40,000 tonnes of wheat.

The January spike in LC openings suggests a seasonal boost in trade activity, though sustained momentum will depend on broader improvements in investment and business confidence.

Private credit growth below 7%

Bangladesh Bank data shows that private sector credit growth stood at 6.10% at the end of December, remaining below 7% for seven consecutive months. This indicates that businesses are borrowing less for trade and investment.

According to bankers, major conglomerates – including Meghna Group, City Group, Square Group, Edible Oil Limited, Bashundhara Group and TK Group – have already imported most of the goods required for Ramadan.

Data also shows that imports of six essential items that are widely consumed during Ramadan rose sharply in September and October compared with the same period last year.

Soybean oil imports increased by 36%, sugar by 11%, lentils by 87%, chickpeas by 27%, split peas by 294% and dates by 231%.

India is scrambling to defend a new trade deal with the United States that critics have branded as a surrender to Washington, as countries navigate the fallout from President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs.

The deal announced this month has rattled India’s powerful farmers’ unions, who argue that cheap US imports would throttle local producers in a country where agriculture employs more than 700 million people.

Details of the deal remain sparse, limited to a joint statement and a White House factsheet, but New Delhi says an interim pact should be finalised by the end of March.

Analysts warn that other elements of the agreement could also prove volatile.

“In the Trumpian era, there is nothing called certainty,” trade expert Abhijit Das told AFP.

Even if the deal is signed in a few weeks, it would only hold until Trump “decides to impose more tariffs for any perceived inconsistency,” he said.

The most contentious pledge is India’s stated intention to buy $500 billion worth of US goods over five years. India’s annual imports from the US last fiscal year were around $45 billion.

Doubling annual purchases to $100 billion “is unrealistic”, said Ajay Srivastava of the Global Trade Research Initiative, a New Delhi-based think tank.

Aircraft purchases were a major component of this commitment but even a major expansion of Boeing aircraft orders -- decisions made by private airlines -- would fall far short, he said.

“Even if India were to add another 200 Boeing aircraft over the next five years, at an estimated cost of $300 million per aircraft, the total value would be about $60 billion.”

Some economists argue the language around purchases is non‑binding, hence it protects New Delhi if it fails to meet the goal. “Framing the target as an intention, rather than a commitment, reduces the risk of the deal later breaking down,” Shivaan Tandon of Capital Economics said in a note on Friday.

Trump’s unpredictability also continues to loom large.

He recently threatened higher tariffs on South Korea over perceived delays by Seoul in implementing a trade agreement announced last July.

Another flashpoint is Washington’s rollback of a 25 percent duty after what it described as India’s “commitment” to stop buying Russian oil.

This promise finds no mention in the joint statement and has neither been confirmed nor denied by the Indian government. India says its energy policy is driven by national interests and that the country depends on multiple sources for crude oil imports.

New Delhi’s Russian oil imports have dropped from a mid‑2025 peak of more than two million barrels a day to about 1.1 million in January.

Local reports say state-owned refiners have already started purchasing Venezuelan oil for delivery in April.

But it remains unclear if Russian purchases will fall to zero.

The outlook hinges heavily on Mumbai-headquartered Nayara Energy, partly owned by Russia’s Rosneft, which Bloomberg reported plans to keep buying around 400,000 barrels a day.

This will likely remain a bone of contention, given the Trump administration’s stance that it intends to monitor India’s imports.

“New Delhi continues to avoid publicly confirming a full halt and frames energy sourcing as driven by price and availability, which underlines ongoing ambiguity over the oil plank,” Darren Tay of BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, told AFP.

“There is tentative evidence that Indian refiners are reducing spot purchases of Russian crude, implying partial adjustment rather than a formal pledge,” Tay said.

The deal remains “too fragile and politically contested” to justify a growth forecast change for India, he added.

The Finance Division will release Tk2,000 crore to the Bangladesh Power Development Board (BPDB) within the next few days to help clear outstanding dues to private power producers amid escalating tensions over unpaid bills and disputed liquidated damages (LD).

Outgoing Power, Energy and Mineral Resources Adviser Muhammad Fouzul Kabir Khan came up with the announcement in Dhaka yesterday.

"Power producers will receive payments very soon," Fouzul said, acknowledging the strain caused by mounting arrears.

The dispute centres on BPDB's decision to calculate and impose liquidated damages for the past 30 months – a move strongly opposed by private producers.

The adviser noted that producers had challenged the decision before the Bangladesh Energy Regulatory Commission (BERC) but were unsuccessful.

"Power producers went to BERC challenging the decision, but they lost there. BPDB is now working on the issue to determine how to resolve both the LD and the outstanding bills," he said.

BPDB Chairman Md Rezaul Karim confirmed that the state utility has been calculating LDs for the past 30 months. He said outstanding bills would be settled only after the calculations are finalised.

"We will pay the outstanding bills owed to power producers once the LDs are calculated," he said, adding that some claims may not stand scrutiny after adjustments, though certain plants could receive payments following reconciliation.

The Bangladesh Independent Power Producers' Association (BIPPA), however, has warned that prolonged non-payment could force plants to shut down.

At a recent press conference, the association claimed that Tk13,000-14,000 crore in dues to local independent power producers (IPPs) remain unpaid. Including joint-venture plants, total arrears could exceed Tk25,000 crore.

The association warned that if at least 60% of the arrears are not settled immediately, producers may have no option but to shut down their plants.

"We will keep supplying power, but BPDB will not pay us. Who will make such a suicidal decision of spending money to generate electricity when they are not being paid?" said BIPPA President David Hasanat.

Hasanat criticised the retroactive calculation of LDs, calling it "absurd," and said the association has challenged the imposition of LD in the High Court. He alleged that LD rules are being applied in a discriminatory manner, targeting domestic entrepreneurs while foreign and joint-venture producers are treated differently.

Under Clause 13.2(1) of the Power Purchase Agreement, BPDB is required to settle bills within 40 days of submission. BIPPA claims payments are currently delayed by eight to 10 months, severely straining producers' finances.

According to the association, the payment crisis has already caused losses of around Tk8,000 crore due to currency fluctuations and rising borrowing costs. "Our borrowing costs have exploded. Fuel imports, loan servicing, opening LCs – everything," Hasanat said.

Energy analysts have warned that any disruption in oil-fired power generation could worsen electricity shortages, particularly during the peak summer months.

Shafiqul Alam, lead analyst for Bangladesh at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), said oil-fired plants accounted for 10.73% of total generation on average in the last fiscal year. Between March and May, their contribution rose to between 11.27% and 12.5%.

"If power supply from oil-fired power plants stops due to the dispute over outstanding bills, there will be severe load-shedding in the summer season," Alam warned, noting ongoing dollar shortages and logistical constraints in handling liquefied natural gas.

Last summer, oil-fired plants generated between 3,000MW and 3,500MW in peak months. This year, output could exceed 4,000MW, according to Imran Karim, former president of BIPPA.

"If the government wants to settle the dispute between BPDB and power producers, it should move away from vindictiveness and adopt a rational approach," he said.

Consumer inflation in the United States cooled slightly more than expected in January, government data showed Friday, as energy prices dipped.

Analysts say the figure allows the US central bank to cut interest rates again later this year, but warn that policymakers need to see sustained improvement in order to do so -- despite President Donald Trump’s insistence that there is virtually no inflation.

The consumer price index (CPI) rose 2.4 percent year-on-year, the Department of Labor said, down from December’s 2.7 percent and slightly below analysts’ median forecast.

This was the lowest level since May 2025.

Trump lauded the report, telling reporters that inflation was “way down, and we have it back on track.”

Yet, affordability worries have come to the fore in recent months as price increases in areas like food weighed on households, and as Trump’s tariffs flowed through the world’s biggest economy.

Although tariffs have not triggered a broad inflation surge, firms have reported higher business costs. Many companies have tried to soften the blow by stocking up on inventory ahead of planned levy hikes and avoided passing on additional costs in full to consumers.

Late last year, Trump also broadened a slate of tariff exemptions, particularly on agriculture imports, as he came under pressure from voters grappling with soaring costs of living.

For now, CPI was up 0.2 percent on a month-on-month basis in January, inching down from December’s 0.3 percent rise.

This was helped by a 1.5 percent month-on-month slide in overall energy costs, in part due to gasoline.

But food costs remained 0.2 percent higher than in December, and were up 2.9 percent from a year ago.

Still, “this is encouraging news for many American families that have been struggling,” said Navy Federal Credit Union chief economist Heather Long in a note.

US consumers in lower income groups have shown reluctance to spend on non-essentials, the Federal Reserve noted last month.

“The tariffs have had a clear impact on products such as furniture and appliances, but the key items in many family budgets are cooling off,” Long said.

“Gas prices, used cars and medical care all declined in January,” she added.

But Diane Swonk of KPMG warned that disruptions from a recent government shutdown are likely suppressing year-over-year inflation measures.

“What’s important is that goods prices still increased,” she told AFP.

Excluding the volatile food and energy sectors, core inflation was 2.5 percent, a touch below December’s level.

“Even though consumers have seen, on average, the wages outpace inflation in recent years, it takes a long time to regain ground lost from those compounding price levels,” Swonk said.

Swonk noted that despite various tariff threats since the beginning of the year, the Trump administration’s actions have been “going in the other direction to try to mitigate those effects.”

These should bear fruit towards the back half of the year.

“We’ve still got some more bumps in inflation to endure, which is why the Fed will welcome this news, but they’re not likely to cut on it,” she said of Friday’s data. “They need to see more sustained improvement in inflation to feel comfortable about where we’re going.”

Although overall inflation has cooled, underlying price pressures, coupled with a jobs market that has proven more resilient than expected, could allow the Fed to continue holding interest rates steady for a while.

The US central bank made three rate cuts last year but has been holding off further action, seeking to bring inflation back down to officials’ two-percent target.

Despite repeated crackdowns and hefty fines by the Directorate of National Consumer Rights Protection, dishonest business practices are still running rampant in Chattogram Division.

Over the past four and a half years, 14,054 businesses have been penalised, yet "traders continue to flout the rules and exploit consumers", according to officials.

Between the 2021-22 fiscal year and November 2025-26, authorities collected Tk15.78 crore in fines, with Tk14.90 crore going to the government treasury and Tk11.16 lakh handed directly to complainants under the law.

Alongside traditional market issues, digital platforms have emerged as a new avenue for fraud. Many online shopping complaints involve anonymous or fake Facebook pages and webshops, where customers receive substandard goods or nothing at all. Lack of verifiable information often hampers the department's ability to take swift legal action.

Gaps in enforcement and public awareness

At the heart of consumer rights enforcement in Bangladesh is the fight against food adulteration.

Md Foyez Ullah, divisional deputy director of the directorate, told The Business Standard, "We give utmost attention to cases where adulteration is found and take a strict stance against those responsible. We are trying to keep these offences to a minimum."

He noted that adulteration is not always the work of organised syndicates. "It often reflects societal norms and individual mindsets. A chef at a wedding may use fake kewra water, rose water, or artificial colouring without realising the harm. The root cause is a lack of awareness and education among food preparers."

Highlighting the challenge of sustainability, he added, "Even those aware today may slip tomorrow. It's a deep-seated issue of mentality and habit."

Russel Uddin, divisional organiser of the Consumers Association of Bangladesh, told TBS, "Government initiatives are insufficient. Laws aren't properly enforced, and limited staff and a lack of awareness campaigns hinder monitoring. Temporary price drives are symbolic. Volunteers help, but lasting change needs strong pressure groups and a louder public voice."

Severe staff and logistical shortages

The directorate faces severe staff and logistical constraints. Nearly 10 million people across Chattogram district's 14 upazilas rely on just one assistant director and one office assistant for market oversight.

The absence of consumer rights offices at the upazila level hampers monitoring, forcing residents from remote areas like Chandanaish or Satkania to travel to district towns to lodge complaints. Officials note that if such offices existed, government directives on essentials like gas cylinders could be enforced simultaneously across all upazilas, preventing traders elsewhere from exploiting gaps.

"Maintaining market stability with such limited staff is extremely difficult," said Md Anisur Rahman, assistant director of the directorate. "Officials endure extreme hardship in the field. Without official vehicles, we're forced to hire transport for inspections, which often delays urgent operations."

Police support remains a major hurdle. Currently, the department relies on local police; however, jurisdictional limits prevent forces from one police station from conducting immediate operations in neighbouring areas. Securing additional force from the police line also takes time.

Someone who is aware today may lose that awareness tomorrow. Still, we continue our efforts. Legal enforcement and some fear have caused many establishments to refrain from offences."

Market oversight and penalties

Data from 2021-22 to November 2025-26 show 6,939 market inspections across 11 districts of Chattogram Division. Rising scams by unscrupulous traders have also made consumers more vigilant. During this period, 9,246 complaints were received, of which 8,565 were resolved.

Under Section 76(4) of the Consumer Rights Protection Act, 2009, 25% of fines arising from proven complaints are paid to complainants immediately, encouraging people to assert their rights.

Alongside traditional market violations, online fraud has emerged as a growing challenge. Many complaints involve anonymous or fake Facebook pages and online shops, with customers receiving substandard goods or nothing at all. Investigations often fail to locate these businesses, delaying legal action or compensation.

Fines varied across districts. The divisional office collected TK5.27 crore from 2,670 establishments. District-level collections were: Chattogram Tk2.20 crore (1,206 establishments), Cumilla Tk1.57 crore (1,614), Chandpur Tk1.33 crore (2,103), Noakhali Tk1.19 crore (1,188), Cox's Bazar Tk91.81 lakh (1,469), Brahmanbaria Tk84.33 lakh (1,698), Feni Tk78.33 lakh (836), and Lakshmipur Tk57.84 lakh (775).

Hill tract districts recorded lower fines due to fewer businesses: Khagrachhari Tk18.71 lakh (295), Rangamati Tk11.64 lakh (152), and Bandarban Tk2.17 lakh (48).

Although imports of key Ramadan commodities have increased compared to previous years, prices of several essentials are soaring in local markets. Within a span of one week, date prices have jumped by Tk50 to Tk100 per kg, depending on the variety.

Besides, prices of sugar, chickpeas, lentils, onions, and garlic have increased, adding pressure on consumers.

Traders claimed that the prices hiked due to delayed clearance of goods at ports disrupted by recent strikes, and a surge in demand following the national election, insisting that overall stock levels remain higher than demand.

Key Ramadan items include rice, edible oil, sugar, lentils, onions, garlic, chickpeas, and dates. According to sources at the Ministry of Commerce, the demand for soybean oil during Ramadan alone stands around 3,00,000 tonnes. Sugar demand is estimated at 3,00,000 tonnes, onions at 5,00,000 tonnes, chickpeas between 1,50,000 and 2,00,000 tonnes, and dates between 60,000 and 80,000 tonnes.

Data from the National Board of Revenue show that in the past four months, Bangladesh imported 225,000 tonnes of onions, 3,70,000 tonnes of sugar, 47,000 tonnes of dates, 2,05,000 tonnes of lentils, nearly 4,00,000 tonnes of crude soybean oil, and 14 lakh tonnes of wheat.

Officials say imports of these products have nearly doubled compared to the same period last year. Besides, chickpea imports alone exceeded demand by 28%.

A visit to several major markets in Dhaka, including Karwan Bazar, Chawkbazar, and Moulvibazar, as well as Khatunganj in Chattogram, revealed that date prices have increased by Tk50 to Tk100 per kg within a week.

In December, the government reduced import duty on dates from 25% to 15% with a view to keeping its market stable, but apparently the prices have risen.

Currently, loose dates are selling at Tk220 per kg, Zahidi at Tk260 to Tk280, and Dabbas between Tk550 and Tk570. Wholesale prices for these types have increased by at least Tk40 to Tk60 per kg.

Besides, Boroi dates are selling for Tk480 to Tk500 per kg, Kalmi at Tk700, Sukkari at Tk800, Mabroom between Tk850 and Tk1, 200, Maryam between Tk1,100 and Tk1,400, and Medjool between Tk1,200 and Tk1,500.

Arafat Hossain, a wholesale and retail date trader at Karwan Bazar, told The Business Standard that the price of Zahidi dates jumped Tk600 per 10-kg carton almost overnight, while Dabbas rose by Tk400 per carton. Some shipments were stuck at the port, reducing supply temporarily.

Touhidul Alam, general secretary of Chattogram Fruit Traders' Association, said Zahidi dates are currently facing a relative shortage compared to demand, claiming that a recent shipwreck involved a cargo containing dates, contributing to limited availability.

Moreover, some importers had delayed imports in anticipation of reduced duties, which also disrupted supply planning. "Apart from certain varieties, the overall market supply remains normal," he added.

Meanwhile, onion prices have risen by Tk10 per kg, sugar by Tk8 to Tk10, khesari lentils by Tk10, garlic by Tk20, and chickpeas by Tk4 to Tk8 depending on quality. Sugar is currently selling at Tk100 per kg, onions at Tk60, local garlic at Tk120, local lentils at Tk160, and chickpeas at Tk90 to Tk100.

Mohammad Mohiuddin, general secretary of Chaktai-Khatunganj Aratdar General Traders' Welfare Association, said there is no shortage of Ramadan-related products such as chickpeas, peas, and dates.

"Imports of chickpeas have been abundant, and compared to last year, prices are actually lower," he claimed.

Blaming weak monitoring during the recent election period for the price hikes, SM Nazrul Hossain, vice-president of the Consumers Association of Bangladesh (CAB), said the administrative transition period created an environment where officials appeared disengaged, allowing unscrupulous traders to increase prices without facing regulatory action. As a result, general consumers are bearing the brunt of the instability.

Following the elections, foot traffic in markets has surged. Retailers say markets were relatively empty in the days leading up to voting, but now shoppers are crowding stores to purchase Ramadan essentials all at once.

At Karwan Bazar, Ahmed Ullah said he regularly buys dates, not just during Ramadan. "The price has increased by Tk60 per kg. I had gone to my village to vote, so today I came to buy everything for Ramadan in one trip."

Mamun Hossain, a grocery shop owner at the kitchen market, observed that prices are relatively stable this year compared to previous seasons. Business was slow for a few days due to the national election.

LafargeHolcim Bangladesh PLC (LHB) has launched a new salinity- and sulphate-resistant cement, branded “Holcim Coastal Guard”, aiming to capture the 30-lakh-tonne market in the country’s south-western and south-eastern coastal regions.

The cement is designed to address the growing environmental challenges in coastal areas, where structures are often exposed to saline and sulphate-rich conditions, according to a press statement issued recently.

The product has been developed through the company’s in-house innovation and manufacturing capabilities in collaboration with the Innovation Center of Holcim Group in Lyon, France, leveraging the group’s Smart Blend Technology.

Bangladesh’s annual cement demand stands at around 4 crore tonnes, of which LafargeHolcim Bangladesh supplies approximately 42 lakh tonnes, said Thuhidul Islam, head of communications, CSR and sustainability at LHB, quoting the company’s technical experts.

“We have launched ‘Holcim Coastal Guard’, targeting an annual demand of three million tonnes across the coastal districts -- Khulna, Satkhira, Bagherhat, Patuakhali, Barguna, Barishal, Jhalakathi, Pirojpur, Chandpur, Bhola, Noakhali, Feni, Lakshmipur, Cox’s Bazar and Chattogram,” he said.

Chemical factories, government sanitation projects, and effluent and sewage treatment plants (ETPs and STPs) also have demand for this type of cement, he added.

He claimed that LHB is the first in Bangladesh to receive approval and introduce cement in this category.

Holcim Coastal Guard is engineered to combat the rapid deterioration of structures exposed to sulphate- and chloride-rich soils, coastal groundwater and chemical attacks in water and effluent treatment plants, ensuring longer-lasting and more resilient construction.

Mohammad Mahfuzul Hoque, commercial and logistics director of LHB, said, “This product has been developed through continuous consumer engagement, research, and a thorough understanding of the saline and sulphate impact on structures.”

Inaugurating the product as the chief guest at a city hotel in Khulna recently, he added, “We believe that Holcim Coastal Guard will help our customers build homes that remain resilient against harsh environmental challenges, providing unmatched protection against coastal erosion and decay.”

Bank Asia PLC has signed an agreement with Chef’s Table to offer Ramadan privileges to its debit and credit cardholders.

Kazi Saiful Islam, general manager for sales and operations at Chef’s Table, and Zishan Ahammad, head of cards, ADC and internet banking at Bank Asia PLC, signed the agreement at the former’s office in Dhaka recently, according to a press release.

Under the agreement, Bank Asia cardholders will enjoy a 10 percent discount at all Chef’s Table outlets throughout the holy month of Ramadan.

This collaboration reflects Bank Asia’s continued commitment to enhancing the customer experience by delivering added value and exclusive lifestyle benefits, especially during Ramadan.

Other senior officials from both organisations were also present at the signing ceremony.

With 209 seats on its own and an expected 212-seat bloc with allies, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) has secured a decisive parliamentary majority. Voter turnout stood at 59.44%, and the Election Commission's announcement of results has formally closed a chapter of political uncertainty.

For the business community, that certainty matters.

But economists caution that electoral legitimacy, while necessary, is not sufficient to restore macroeconomic momentum. 

The new government inherits slowing private investment, persistent inflationary pressures, a stressed banking sector and a weak revenue base. The mandate is clear. The economic road ahead is less so.

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From uncertainty to confidence

Professor Mustafizur Rahman, Distinguished Fellow at the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), describes the election outcome as a "necessary condition" for recovery — but not a guarantee.

 
"A peaceful and credible election has removed uncertainty and marked the beginning of a renewed democratic journey — an undeniably positive signal for the country's trade, commerce and overall economy. This was a necessary condition for boosting investment, as the private sector was reluctant to undertake new investments or expand existing businesses amid prolonged uncertainty," he said. 

"However, a credible election alone is not sufficient to inject dynamism into the economy or to rebuild investor confidence. To translate this political development into tangible investment outcomes, several additional enabling factors must be addressed. Most important among them are improvements in law and order and the assurance of good governance," Mustafizur added. 

 
At the same time, appropriate fiscal policy must be pursued. The ease of doing business needs to be enhanced, and the cost of doing business reduced. Necessary reforms across key economic sectors must be implemented, institutional efficiency strengthened, and overall macroeconomic stability ensured.

 
If these measures are put in place, confidence among both domestic and foreign investors will grow, leading to higher investment flows, the economist noted.

Mustafizur cautioned, "Investment will not surge from day one simply because these steps are initiated. However, they will send a strong positive signal to the market. As confidence gradually strengthens, investment will follow."

 
The emphasis is clear: Political stability must now translate into administrative predictability. For investors, law and order is not merely a security issue — it is a cost variable. Contract enforcement, customs clearance, dispute resolution and regulatory consistency all shape capital allocation decisions.

The first 100 days: Credibility on the line

For Jyoti Rahman, director of International Affairs at the Sydney Policy Analysis Center, the government's early actions will define its economic trajectory.

Ramadan is approaching — historically a period when prices of essential commodities rise. That seasonal inflation will be the administration's first credibility test.

"When a new government takes office, if it fails to immediately build confidence and credibility, that failure will have downstream effects later on."

He added, "Now consider the current moment. If the BNP government comes to power just as Ramadan begins — or right before it, since Ramadan is set to start next Wednesday or Thursday — we face a familiar and unfortunate pattern in Bangladesh: prices of essential commodities tend to rise during Ramadan. It may be onions, eggplants, or other staples. We have seen this before. Sheikh Hasina once even dismissed public concern by suggesting that people could simply avoid eating onions or eggplants. Such remarks damaged public trust.

"If the new government cannot manage the supply chain from day one, the impact on confidence and credibility will be severe. That erosion of trust will hurt the government later when it confronts larger macroeconomic challenges. As a macroeconomist, what I expect from the new government is clear: it must take supply chain management very seriously as an immediate confidence-building measure. In the long run, credibility is everything," Jyoti further said.

Second, he added, the budget is obviously critical. The interim government essentially operated with an interim framework — it did not introduce major new programmes or projects but simply kept things running.

"The new government, however, must now manage the debt legacy left behind by Hasina."  

At the same time, the new government must fulfil its campaign promises — the mandate it received from voters. So it faces a threefold challenge: servicing past debt, delivering on electoral commitments, and maintaining a sustainable fiscal framework. This will be extremely difficult. The budget is not merely a technical exercise; it is a strategic priority that requires strong communication with the public.

"Third, the government must articulate a long-term development plan. We speak of becoming a $3,000-per-capita economy, but sustaining that level requires around 10% growth and structural reform. What is the mission? What is the long-term strategy? These questions must be addressed now," Jyoti Rahman said. "The upcoming budget will therefore be more than a financial statement — it will be a declaration of intent."

The revenue question

That intent, economists argue, must include deep institutional reform — starting with the National Board of Revenue (NBR).

Zaidi Sattar, chairman of the Policy Research Institute (PRI), is blunt in his assessment, "One of the major obstacles to Bangladesh's economic progress is the institution known as the National Board of Revenue. If the new government genuinely wants to advance economic development, this institution must be thoroughly overhauled and restructured."

Reforming the NBR could unlock significant benefits for the economy. In many ways, it is the key to growth and progress. If this key is not turned properly, the entire system remains stuck. This is not a minor issue — it is a serious structural bottleneck.

He said, "In my view, the NBR is one of the most critical institutional stumbling blocks to Bangladesh's economic advancement. It must therefore be treated with the highest level of priority. Comprehensive reform — administrative, structural and governance-related — is essential if the country is to achieve sustained and inclusive economic growth."

Bangladesh's tax-to-GDP ratio remains persistently low. A narrow tax base and complex compliance regime discourage formalisation. Without reform, fiscal space will remain constrained — limiting infrastructure spending, social protection and debt management capacity.

For a government seeking to move the economy towards higher-middle-income status, revenue reform is not optional, he said.

Lessons from the past

Economists also underline what the new administration must avoid. Jyoti Rahman outlined it neatly.

"First, macroeconomic orthodoxy must be restored and protected. Political interference in banking supervision and directed lending under previous administrations weakened financial discipline. Depoliticising the banking sector and strengthening regulatory autonomy are critical," he said.

He added, "Second, fiscal populism carries risks. Large-scale projects without transparent cost-benefit analysis strain public finances and crowd out private investment.

"Third, inequality must be addressed through opportunity creation, not merely redistribution. Expanding transfer programmes without improving labour productivity, education quality and SME access to finance risks entrenching dependency rather than growth," he added.

"Finally, communication matters," he said, "Markets respond not only to policy but to signalling. Transparent engagement with the business community and development partners can anchor expectations and reduce volatility."

A narrow but decisive window

The election has delivered a stable parliamentary arithmetic. But stability must now be converted into reform momentum.

The priorities, economists agree, are immediate supply stabilisation, law and order improvements, credible budgeting, NBR reform and banking sector discipline. None are politically easy. All are economically necessary.

Investment will not surge overnight. Growth will not rebound instantly. But early, coherent steps can reset expectations. The mandate is strong. The structural constraints are real. Whether the new government can bridge the two will define Bangladesh's next economic chapter.