Oil prices stayed over $100 per barrel Friday while stock markets slid, with no end in sight to disruption in crude supplies as war rages on in the Middle East.

With the conflict heading toward its third week, equity markets continued falling amid investor worries of an extended crisis that could fan inflation and hammer the global economy.

The price of Brent crude, the benchmark international oil contract, dipped below $100 during the day, sending equities briefly higher.

But stocks slid back into the red as Brent climbed back above the $100 mark.

It closed at $103.14 per barrel, and has soared by more than 42 percent since the start of the conflict.

US-Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28 plunged the Middle East into war, sparking a surge in fuel prices as Tehran vowed to choke the Strait of Hormuz -- a critical artery for global energy transport.

"Crude oil is continuing to dictate direction for markets as we head towards the end of a volatile week," said Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with Forex.com.

"The pressure remains with no end in sight in the Middle East conflict," Razaqzada added.

"Traders are trying to figure out what a fair value for crude oil is right now, given the big release of emergency oil reserves, and the temporary relaxation of sanctions on Russian oil sales that's already at sea," he said.

Iran's threats over the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of global crude oil and liquefied natural gas passes, is causing worries of rising prices rippling through the world economy.

"Fears of a burgeoning energy crisis remain front and center for investors," noted Joshua Mahony, chief market analyst at Scope Markets.

"Inflationary fears are particularly prevalent," Mahony added.

Major central banks, which prior to the war's outbreak were heavily forecast to keep cutting interest rates, are now widely expected next week to freeze borrowing costs or even hike them to keep a lid on inflation.

An unprecedented seven central banks are due to hold meetings on interest rates next week.

Investors also digested updated US economic growth data for the fourth quarter, which was revised down to 0.7 percent from an initial reading of 1.4 percent.

And delayed data showed the US Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge had dipped to 2.8 percent in January.

This is still higher than the Fed's two-percent inflation target, and reflects a period before energy prices shot higher.

The US central bank now faces an environment where inflation remains sticky and could soon be boosted by energy prices, while GDP growth and the labor market continue to lose momentum, said eToro US Investment Analyst, Bret Kenwell.

On foreign exchange markets, the dollar held gains against major rivals owing to its safe-haven status and expectations that US interest rates will remain elevated longer than expected.

AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould said next week's central bank meetings "come at a delicate time."

"Markets will be watching closely for any signals on how they plan to deal with surging oil and gas prices and whether they see it as a short-term bump to look through."

A tanker's sudden change of course in early March reflects a shift in Russia's energy fortunes.

From 22 to 26 February, the Hong Kong-flagged tanker Sarah turned off its transponders to load Russian oil from smaller ships off the coast of Oman. It then headed towards Singapore, where the cargo was likely to be transferred to another vessel bound for China.

But on 6 March, a day after the United States issued a 30-day sanctions waiver allowing Indian refiners to buy Russian crude, the tanker changed course. It is now scheduled to arrive at a refinery in western India today (14 March), reports The Economist.

The change reflects a wider shift since the start of the Iran war. The de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz has trapped around 15% of global oil supply in the Gulf.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, fell to $59 a barrel in December amid expectations of oversupply. It is now around $100. Higher prices have made Russian oil more attractive to buyers. On 12 March, the United States extended its waiver to allow countries to purchase Russian oil that had already been loaded onto tankers.

Before the crisis, Russia's oil revenues had been declining. Many refiners in India and China, Russia's largest customers, stopped buying Russian crude around November before US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil took effect.

By February, Russia's export volumes had fallen by about a fifth. Together with lower prices, this meant the Kremlin's oil-and-gas revenues were 44% lower than a year earlier. In the first two months of the year, Russia's budget deficit reached 3.4 trillion roubles, about nine-tenths of its target for the whole of 2026.

Higher prices and renewed demand are now helping reduce a backlog of Russian oil shipments at sea. India has increased its purchases by about half, helping cut Russia's floating oil inventory by more than 10% to around 122 million barrels. China's imports have also risen.

Because these shipments had already been sold, the immediate financial benefit goes mainly to traders rather than the Russian government.

The absence of Gulf oil has increased demand for alternative supplies. Russian crude is similar in quality to Middle Eastern oil and easier for many Asian refineries to process. Urals crude delivered to India, which had previously been sold at a discount, is now priced above Brent.

Sergey Vakulenko, a former executive at Gazprom Neft, estimates that every $10 increase in Brent prices over a month raises Russia's energy export revenues by about $2.8 billion, of which roughly $1.6 billion goes to the state.

The crisis has also complicated efforts by Western countries to tighten sanctions on Russia. Before the conflict, the United States had considered tougher measures against Russia's "shadow fleet" of tankers and possible secondary tariffs.

The recent waivers have also widened differences with the European Union. The European Commission had proposed a ban on maritime services for Russian oil exports, but the plan faces opposition from Hungary and Slovakia.

Concerns over energy supply may also lead some European countries to reconsider plans to stop importing Russian liquefied natural gas next year.

China, which receives about one-third of its liquefied natural gas from the Gulf region, is also concerned about supply disruptions. This may increase interest in overland energy supplies from Russia, including the proposed Power of Siberia 2 pipeline, a 2,600-kilometre project that could significantly increase Russian gas exports to China.

Despite higher prices, analysts say Russia's gains may be limited. Ukrainian attacks on oil facilities, sanctions and reduced investment have weakened the industry.

Russia is estimated to have about 300,000 barrels per day of spare production capacity, far below the 10–15 million barrels per day of supply affected by disruptions in the Gulf.

Analysts also say Russia's oil output is likely to decline over time. Higher prices may provide temporary relief, but they are unlikely to reverse the longer-term pressures on Russia's energy sector.

Stocks fell and the US dollar strengthened on Friday as uncertainty over the Iran war continued to disrupt energy supplies, heightening concerns over fuel prices and interest rates.

The price of oil crossed $100 per barrel even as an Indian tanker sailed out of the Strait of Hormuz and the US put forth measures to try to ease supply concerns.

All three major US stock indexes logged daily and weekly declines. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished Friday down 0.25%, the S&P 500 fell 0.6% and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.9%.

European shares extended their declines as well, with Europe's STOXX 600 down 0.5% on Friday. MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe fell 0.9%.

The dollar has become the safe haven of choice during the tumult, putting most other currencies under pressure. The US currency gained for the second consecutive week, up 0.8% on the day against a basket of currencies.

Oil price driving market

President Donald Trump said the US was going to be hitting Iran "very hard over the next week," shortly after issuing a partial 30-day waiver for purchases of sanctioned Russian oil, hoping to ease prices.

Front-month WTI crude futures settled at $98.71 per barrel, up 3.11%. Brent rose 2.67% to $103.14, settling above $100 per barrel for the first time since August 2022.

Traders are trying to predict how long the disruption to oil supplies will last.

"Headlines are coming at the market like water from a fire hose, which is impacting the price of oil, and consequently, financial markets," said Mitch Reznick, group head of fixed income at Federated Hermes.

With Iran stepping up attacks across the Middle East as its new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei vowed to keep the Strait of Hormuz shipping lane closed, investors are bracing for a prolonged conflict and higher oil prices.

The spectre of rising inflation has led markets to rapidly reprice what they expect from central banks this year, with traders now anticipating just 20 basis points of easing from the Federal Reserve compared to 50 bps of cuts priced in last month.

Two-year Treasury yields, which typically move in step with Fed interest rate expectations, hit a six-month high on Thursday.

Elsewhere, the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, rose 0.3% in January on a monthly basis, in line with economists' estimates.

At the same time, US economic growth slowed more sharply than initially thought in the fourth quarter amid downward revisions to consumer spending and business investment, government data showed on Friday.

"With markets laser-focused on oil prices and geopolitics, today's numbers may mostly fly under the radar," Ellen Zentner, chief economic strategist for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, said in an email.

"Despite signs of economic softening, more sticky inflation data simply strengthens the idea that the Fed will remain on the sidelines."

Shifting rates outlook

Interest rate futures that had been priced for two quarter-point cuts by the end of the year before the conflict began are now barely pricing in one.

For US government bond trading on Friday, the two-year note yield fell 3.3 bps to 3.73% after hitting its highest level since August 22 on Thursday. US 10-year notes ticked up to 4.283%.

Investor focus will switch to a slate of policy meetings next week, with the Fed, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England all due to meet, with most expected to keep rates unchanged.

In currencies, the euro fell 0.8% to $1.1417, while the yen hit its weakest since July 2024 at 159.66 per US dollar on Friday as Japan warned it was ready to take action to protect against yen declines.

Analysts said the bar for intervention is higher this time around, as any action now could prove futile in the face of relentless dollar buying.

Gold was 1.27% lower at $5,014 per ounce on Friday, capping a drop on the week.

The benchmark index of the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSEX) rebounded this week, paring some of the previous week's steep losses as bargain hunters returned to scoop up undervalued blue-chip stocks, even though overall sentiment remained cautious amid escalating Middle East conflict.

The week began in turmoil on Sunday, with the DSEX plummeting 232 points, or 4.42 per cent, marking its largest single-day decline in six years. The sharp sell-off was triggered by intensifying conflict in the Middle East.

Despite the bearish start, the market demonstrated resilience over the subsequent four trading sessions of the week. Buoyed by signs of a potential de-escalation in the conflict and easing local concerns regarding immediate fuel shortages in Bangladesh, investor confidence gradually returned.Import/export consultation

At the end of the week, the DSEX had recovered 128 points, or 2.43 percent, to settle at 5,368. This weekly gain provided a partial cushion against the 359-point loss recorded in the previous week.

Market analysts attributed the turnaround to value-seeking behaviour rather than a full restoration of bullish sentiment.

"Many fundamentally strong stocks fell to lucrative price levels after the recent sharp correction, which attracted buyers," said Akramul Alam, head of research at Royal Capital.

He noted that institutional investors also increased exposure to well-performing banking shares as valuations became more attractive.

Market optimism was further bolstered after US President Donald Trump indicated that the conflict involving Iran could be nearing an end, easing fears of potential fuel supply disruptions.

Global oil prices reflected the volatility, with Brent crude falling over 7 per cent to $91.94 per barrel on Tuesday after Monday's three-year peak of $120, before rising again near $100 on Thursday.

Investor confidence also got a boost after Bangladesh Bank raised the prior-approval threshold for foreign capital repatriation from Tk 100 million to Tk 1 billion, aligning rules with international practices and encouraging foreign inflows into undervalued stocks.Import/export consultation

The policy change encouraged foreign investors to channel fresh funds into undervalued stocks, market participants said.

In its weekly market analysis, EBL Securities said, the market witnessed a sustained recovery this week, rebounding from the steepest single-day decline in six years recorded in the opening session, as bargain hunters turned back to accumulate equities at attractive price points amid easing concerns over the potential market impact of the ongoing Middle East conflict.

Still, many investors remained cautious amid geopolitical uncertainty and the absence of a clear ceasefire in the Middle East. Bangladeshi businesses have already expressed deep concerns, saying the intensifying conflict may pose fresh challenges and drive up the cost of doing business.

The blue-chip DS30 index climbed 55 points to close at 2,066, while the Shariah-based DSES index gained 31 points to 1,079.

Price surge of blue-chip stocks, including Islami Bank, LafargeHolcim Bangladesh, City Bank, Square Pharma, Beximco Pharma, Grameenphone and BRAC Bank, largely contributed to the market index surge. These seven stocks accounted for a 54-point gain in the DSEX.

Islami Bank alone accounted for a 16.3 point gain in the DSEX as its share jumped 6.5 per cent after the bank said its board had approved a US firm as a strategic investor in its subsidiary mCash this week.

The proposed strategic investment is expected to strengthen the capital base of mCash and accelerate the expansion of digital financial services under the mobile financial services (MFS) platform, the bank said.

However, market liquidity remained subdued. Total turnover on the DSE dropped to Tk 26.57 billion from Tk 34.82 billion the previous week, with average daily turnover falling 24 per cent to Tk 5.31 billion.

Gainers significantly outnumbered losers, with 324 issues rising, 38 falling and 27 remaining unchanged among the 389 traded securities.

All sectors posted gains, led by cement, which gained 7.6 per cent, followed by telecom, non-bank financial institutions, banking, pharma, power, and engineering.

Orion Infusion was the most-traded stock with Tk 1.43 billion in turnover, followed by City Bank, Olympic Industries, BRAC Bank, and Robi Axiata.

The Chittagong Stock Exchange also rebounded, with the All Shares Price Index (CASPI) rising 155 points to 14,980 and the Selective Categories Index (CSCX) gaining 100 points to 9,160.

The port city bourse traded 43.3 million shares and mutual fund units, with turnover of Tk 1.66 billion.

The Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) is working to introduce a comprehensive framework to define and regulate public interest companies (PICs), aiming to restore regulatory control over capital issuance and prevent misuse in the securities market.

The draft rules, which will be published soon for public opinion, seek to repeal a 2019 exemption that allowed non-listed companies to raise capital without prior BSEC approval.

Under Section 8(1) of the Securities and Exchange Commission Act 1993, the BSEC is tasked with ensuring proper issuance of securities, protecting investor interests, and developing the securities market. But the exemption granted in 2019 removed the need for non-listed companies to seek commission permission for capital raising, a senior BSEC official told The FE.

As a result, the regulator lost oversight over a large segment of capital issuance.

Currently, companies only submit a return of allotment to the Registrar of Joint Stock Companies and Firms (RJSC), which records the filing without examining or regulating the issuance.

According to the official, the absence of regulatory scrutiny created opportunities for misuse. In some cases, companies allegedly inflated their capital structure without adequate asset backing and later entered the market through initial public offerings (IPOs).

Proposed definition of public interest companies

Under the draft framework currently being finalised, the BSEC has outlined specific conditions for classifying companies as PICs and regulating their capital-raising activities.

According to the proposed structure, entities dealing directly with public funds or securities -- such as banks, financial institutions, insurance companies, stockbrokers, stock dealers and merchant banks -- would automatically fall under the PIC category regardless of capital size.

All listed companies would also be classified as PICs.

Financial thresholds for PIC classification

Companies meeting any of the following financial criteria may also be classified as PICs:

- Public limited companies with paid-up capital exceeding Tk 50 million.

- Private limited companies with capital above Tk 150 million.

- Companies with annual revenue exceeding Tk 1 billion.

- Companies borrowing Tk 200 million or more from banks or other public sources

Even privately held companies meeting these thresholds would be considered PICs due to their involvement with public money or stakeholders.

Capital raising rules under consideration

The draft framework introduces specific conditions linking company size with fundraising methods:

-- Companies with capital exceeding around Tk 500 million may be required to raise funds through an IPO, sharing ownership with the public.

-- Firms with capital between Tk 50 million and Tk 500 million could use qualified investor offers.

-- Private placements to outsiders would be limited to a maximum of 20 investors to prevent informal conversion of private offers into public fundraising.

Disclosure and Compliance Requirements

PICs would face mandatory public disclosures even if they do not raise capital via the regulator.

The disclosure standards include maintaining a functional website with details on the company, directors, audited financial statements, annual reports, and contact information.

The website may also be linked with the RJSC database for enhanced transparency.

Digital Approval System

To streamline the process, the commission is also exploring the introduction of a digital platform that would allow companies to apply for capital issuance approvals online.

"This will ensure that companies can apply from anywhere and receive approvals online, making the process faster and more efficient," said the official.

The Commission plans to finalise the proposals after further consultations and the draft rules will be placed for public opinion before implementation.

When asked, Md Abul Kalam, Director and Spokesperson at BSEC, confirmed that the commission is working on the draft rules and will publish them for public feedback.

Struggling under heavy classified loan burdens, several non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs) have emerged as top performers in the stock market, posting sharp price increases in February after months of steep declines triggered by liquidation concerns.

According to data from the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE), the share prices of eight troubled NBFIs surged between 145% and 224% during the month, even though most of them remain under severe financial distress and face potential liquidation.

The rally came after their share prices had earlier plunged to historic lows amid continuous sell-offs driven by investor fears that shareholders could lose their entire investments if the institutions were wound up.

At one point, the share prices of some NBFIs dropped below Tk1 for the first time in the history of Bangladesh's capital market.

In response, the DSE introduced a new trading rule for such ultra-low-priced stocks. The bourse fixed the minimum price movement (tick size) for shares trading below Tk1 at Tk0.01, while the existing tick size for equities priced above Tk1 remains Tk0.10.

Despite the weak fundamentals, these beaten-down stocks staged an extraordinary rebound in February.

Data show that the share price of Bangladesh Industrial Finance Company soared by 224% during the month to Tk5.50 per share.

Premier Leasing and Finance jumped 216% to Tk1.70 from Tk0.57 at the beginning of February. People's Leasing and Financial Services and FAS Finance and Investment both climbed 174% to Tk1.70 each.

International Leasing and Financial Services rose 171% to Tk1.60, Prime Finance and Investment advanced 167% to Tk4, while Fareast Finance and Investment gained 154% to Tk1.70.

GSP Finance also recorded a sharp increase, rising 145% to Tk4.96 per share.

Market insiders say the rally reflects the long-standing tendency of many investors in Bangladesh's capital market to speculate on junk stocks despite their high risks.

Usually investors here like to bet on weak stocks hoping for quick gains. Sometimes the risk pays off, but often it ends with investors losing their hard-earned money," said market insiders.

They also noted that investor sentiment shifted after the change in the governor of Bangladesh Bank. Many traders appeared to assume that the planned liquidation of troubled NBFIs might not proceed as earlier indicated, prompting renewed speculative buying in these distressed stocks.

Abu Ahmed, chairman of the Investment Corporation of Bangladesh and a capital market analyst, recently told The Business Standard that many investors prefer short-term trading gains rather than long-term.

He said abnormal price surges are often driven by manipulation in junk stocks. Once such stocks start rising sharply, many investors rush to concentrate their investments in them in hopes of quick profits.

The capital market analyst advised investors to focus on fundamentally strong companies instead, although he acknowledged that the number of quality stocks in the market remains limited.

The surge in prices comes against the backdrop of ongoing regulatory actions aimed at reviving or resolving scam-hit NBFIs.

On 5 January, then governor of Bangladesh Bank, Ahsan H Mansur, said at a press briefing that nine NBFIs would be declared non-viable within a week. He also announced that independent auditors would be appointed to assess the actual financial conditions of the institutions.

Following the announcement, panic selling swept through the shares of weak financial institutions as investors feared a complete erosion of shareholder value.

However, many investors were unable to exit their positions because buyers virtually disappeared from the market, leaving large volumes of unexecuted sell orders throughout the trading day.

"The market was flooded with sell orders, but there were practically no buyers," a broker said at the time. "Investors were trying to cut losses, but confidence had completely evaporated."

Later, on 27 January, the central bank decided to liquidate six NBFIs plagued by irregularities, corruption and prolonged mismanagement, while allowing three others an additional three months to improve their financial conditions.

The institutions granted time include Bangladesh Industrial Finance Company, GSP Finance Company and Prime Finance and Investment.

Those set for liquidation include FAS Finance, Premier Leasing, Fareast Finance, Aviva Finance, People's Leasing and International Leasing.

Financial data show that most of these institutions were already in deep distress.

As of September 2025, many had accumulated massive losses and recorded deeply negative net asset values.

International Leasing alone posted accumulated losses exceeding Tk5,100 crore, with its net asset value per share falling to minus Tk219 and a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio approaching 98%.

People's Leasing reported losses of more than Tk4,800 crore with an NPL ratio nearing 99%, while FAS Finance showed an almost 100% NPL ratio along with heavy negative equity.

Similar financial distress is evident at Premier Leasing, Fareast Finance, First Finance, GSP Finance and BIFC, highlighting years of weak governance, reckless lending and capital erosion.

The central bank's decision follows a circular issued on 21 December that brought NBFIs under the Bank Resolution Ordinance 2025, empowering the regulator to take decisive action, including liquidation, against institutions that remain in prolonged distress and fail to protect depositors' funds.

Earlier, on 30 November, the board of Bangladesh Bank had given preliminary approval to liquidate nine NBFIs, including People's Leasing and International Leasing.

Stocks at the Dhaka bourse staged a notable rebound last week as improving investor sentiment and bargain hunting drove the key indices sharply higher amid easing concerns surrounding the ongoing Middle East war and its potential impact on the domestic economy.

The benchmark DSEX index of the Dhaka Stock Exchange surged 127 points, or 2.43%, to close the week at 5,368.

The blue-chip DS30 index also posted a strong gain, advancing 54 points, or 2.72%, to finish at 2,066.

Market breadth remained strongly positive during the week, with 324 issues advancing, 38 declining and 27 remaining unchanged.

Despite the broad-based price appreciation, market activity remained relatively subdued as investors adopted a cautious stance.

Average daily turnover fell by 24% week-on-week to Tk531 crore, reflecting a wait-and-see approach among market participants who preferred to monitor whether the upward momentum would be sustained before making fresh investment decisions.

However, the overall market capitalisation of the Dhaka bourse increased by approximately Tk9,000 crore during the week, indicating a steady return of confidence among investors after the previous week's sharp downturn.

EBL Securities, in its weekly market review, said the capital market experienced a sustained recovery throughout the week, bouncing back from the steepest single-day fall recorded in the past six years during the opening session. The brokerage house noted that the sharp correction at the start of the week created attractive entry points for investors, prompting bargain hunters to accumulate fundamentally strong stocks.

Although the week began under persistent bearish pressure, sentiment gradually improved as signals emerged of a possible de-escalation in the Middle East war.

At the same time, concerns regarding immediate disruptions to the country's fuel supply began to subside, which helped restore confidence among market participants.

A managing director of a leading brokerage firm said the government appeared capable of overcoming any potential fuel shortages stemming from the Middle East tensions.

Bangladesh secured a significant quantity of fuel supplies during the past week, which helped ease investor concerns and contributed to renewed optimism in the stock market.

He also noted that the central bank's recent decision to ease capital repatriation rules for foreign investors was a positive development for the capital market. The move is expected to improve the investment climate and may encourage greater participation from foreign portfolio investors in the coming months.

Additionally, speculation surrounding a possible change in the leadership of the stock market regulator also played a role in drawing investors back to the market, he added.

Sector-wise participation showed that investors were most active in the banking sector, which accounted for 21.3% of total market turnover. The pharmaceutical sector followed with 15.2%, while the textile sector captured 9.5% of the week's trading activity.

Among individual stocks, Islami Bank Bangladesh, LafargeHolcim Cement, City Bank, Square Pharmaceuticals and Beximco Pharmaceuticals were the major contributors to the upward movement of the benchmark index during the week.

In terms of turnover, Orion Infusion emerged as the most traded stock, followed by City Bank, Olympic Industries, BRAC Bank and Robi.

All major sectors posted positive returns during the week. The cement sector led the gains with a 7.6% increase, followed by the information technology sector with 5.3% and life insurance with 4.6%.

Interestingly, many Z-category stocks and loss-making non-bank financial institutions dominated the gainers' list. International Leasing, Peoples Leasing, FAS Finance and Fareast Finance each soared 50%, while Premier Leasing advanced 42.31%.

On the other hand, Saif Powertec was the worst-performing stock of the week, declining 6.94%. It was followed by Green Delta Insurance, Ring Shine Textile, Dula Mia Cotton and Hami Industries, which also posted notable losses.

Foreign investors increased their exposure to several blue-chip stocks in February, particularly in the banking and pharmaceutical sectors, while pulling back from companies including Olympic Industries, Grameenphone (GP) and DBH Finance.

Data from the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) show that foreign portfolio investment rose last month, with overseas investors purchasing shares in a number of top-tier companies led by Square Pharmaceuticals and BRAC Bank.

Square attracted the largest foreign inflow, with overseas investors buying shares worth about Tk160 crore during February. The purchases increased foreign shareholding in the pharmaceutical giant to 15.50% from 14.70% in January.

BRAC Bank ranked second in terms of foreign investment inflow. Foreign investors bought shares worth around Tk110 crore, raising their ownership in the bank to 36.72% from 36.05% a month earlier.

Other companies that recorded smaller increases in foreign investment included United Commercial Bank, Uttara Bank and IDLC Finance.

Overall, foreign investors increased their holdings in 25 listed companies during the month, purchasing shares worth about Tk280 crore. Their stakes also rose in firms such as Marico Bangladesh, Envoy Textiles, Walton Hi-Tech Industries and Unique Hotel and Resorts.

Selling in several large firms

Foreign investors also sold shares in several major companies during the same period, with the biggest outflow recorded in Olympic Industries.

Overseas investors offloaded shares worth about Tk80 crore in Olympic Industries, reducing their stake in the company to 30.26% from 32.83% in January.

Telecom giant Grameenphone also experienced selling, with overseas investors selling shares worth Tk25 crore during the month. Foreign holdings in the company slipped slightly to 0.60% from 0.67%.

Other companies that saw foreign investment outflows included DBH Finance, BSRM Limited and Jamuna Oil Company.

In total, foreign investors reduced their holdings in 16 companies, selling shares worth Tk126.35 crore during February.

Foreign participation still limited

Despite the selective inflows and outflows, foreign participation in Bangladesh's stock market remains relatively limited. According to DSE data, total foreign investment in the market currently stands at around Tk13,000 crore.

Out of roughly 360 listed companies on the Dhaka bourse, only about 132 currently have any level of foreign shareholding, highlighting the narrow base of overseas participation.

Among listed firms, BRAC Bank has the highest level of foreign ownership at around 36%, followed by Olympic Industries with more than 30%.

Other companies with significant foreign shareholding include Beximco Pharmaceuticals, Navana Pharmaceuticals and Renata.

Structural barriers to investment

Market analysts said foreign investors tend to concentrate their investments in a small number of fundamentally strong companies because of the limited availability of high-quality listed firms.

They note that Bangladesh's stock market contains many weak or poorly governed companies, often referred to by investors as "junk stocks", which discourages broader foreign participation.

Analysts also cite several structural barriers that limit overseas investment, including tax complexities such as capital gains tax issues, policy inconsistency and concerns about corporate governance.

Brokerage officials added that a significant portion of the recorded foreign investment actually comes from non-resident Bangladeshis rather than large international funds.

Genuine foreign institutional investors are believed to be actively present in no more than 25 listed companies, primarily large-cap firms with strong financial performance and adequate market liquidity.

Among the global investors active in Bangladesh are institutions linked to Norway's sovereign wealth fund, along with a small number of investment firms based in the United Arab Emirates and Europe, according to market insiders.

A managing director of a leading brokerage firm said foreign investors remain cautious because the market offers limited diversification opportunities.

Bangladesh has a relatively small pool of large-cap stocks that meet the governance, risk and liquidity standards required by global institutional investors, he said.

Policy move to attract foreign funds

In a move aimed at attracting more foreign investment, Bangladesh Bank recently relaxed rules governing capital repatriation by overseas investors.

In a circular issued on 9 March, the central bank raised the threshold for prior approval required for capital repatriation to Tk100 crore from the previous Tk10 crore limit.

The measure is intended to align Bangladesh's regulatory framework with international standards and simplify procedures for foreign investors seeking to repatriate funds.

The Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) signed between Bangladesh and Japan on February 6, in Tokyo is poised to transform the trajectory of bilateral trade between the two countries, said Tareq Rafi Bhuiyan (Jun), president of the Japan-Bangladesh Chamber of Commerce and Industry (JBCCI).

In an interview with The Daily Star, Bhuiyan described the agreement as Bangladesh’s first comprehensive EPA and a landmark shift from a unilateral preference-based arrangement to a structured, rules-based bilateral trade framework.

“This is not just about tariff cuts,” he said. “It institutionalises our trade relationship with Japan. It provides predictability, transparency and legal certainty — all of which are essential for sustainable trade growth.”

He said Japan has long been one of Bangladesh’s key trading partners, particularly as a destination for ready-made garments (RMG) and textile products.

However, he said with Bangladesh set to graduate from least developed country (LDC) status in the near future, concerns had emerged over the possible erosion of preferential market access.

He said under the existing Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) schemes, Bangladeshi exports enjoy duty-free or preferential treatment. After graduation, those benefits would no longer automatically apply.

“Without the EPA, our exporters, especially in garments, could have faced tariffs of 8 percent to 15 percent or more in the Japanese market,” Bhuiyan said. “That would have significantly affected our price competitiveness.”

He noted that the EPA secures duty-free or reduced-tariff access for more than 7,300 Bangladeshi products, including RMG, textiles and a wide range of manufactured goods. This ensures continuity in market access and shields exporters from sudden tariff shocks.

“For our bilateral trade, this continuity is critical. It means buyers in Japan can continue sourcing from Bangladesh without disruption, and our exporters can plan long-term investments with confidence,” he added.

While garments dominate Bangladesh’s exports to Japan, Bhuiyan said the EPA opens opportunities to diversify the trade basket.

The agreement includes provisions on customs facilitation, standards, sanitary and phytosanitary measures, intellectual property and digital trade — all of which reduce non-tariff barriers and enhance transparency.

“Many exporters struggle not just with tariffs but with complex procedures and compliance requirements,” he said. “Clearer rules and improved cooperation between customs authorities will lower transaction costs and reduce uncertainty.”

He believes that sectors such as agro-processing, leather goods, light engineering products, plastics and specialised manufacturing can gradually expand their presence in Japan if supported by quality improvements and compliance with Japanese standards.

However, he acknowledged that some leather and footwear products may not receive full duty benefits under the initial framework, which could create competitive pressure in certain segments.

“Industry stakeholders have raised concerns, particularly in leather. While the overall agreement is positive, sectors that do not receive immediate duty-free access will need to focus more on quality, branding and niche positioning,” he said.

On the import side, the EPA grants Japan preferential access to Bangladesh’s expanding domestic market for more than 1,000 products, including steel, machinery, auto parts and electronics. Some tariff reductions will be phased in over periods extending up to 18 years.

Bhuiyan described the phased approach as balanced and pragmatic.

“It allows Bangladesh to liberalise gradually while giving domestic industries time to adjust,” he said. “At the same time, access to high-quality Japanese machinery and intermediate goods will strengthen our industrial capacity.”

He noted that improved access to advanced machinery and components can raise productivity in Bangladesh’s manufacturing sector, which in turn enhances export competitiveness in third-country markets.

“In bilateral trade, imports are not necessarily a threat. Strategic imports — especially capital goods and technology — can support export expansion,” he said.

Bhuiyan emphasised that the EPA has broader implications for supply chain integration between the two countries.

Japan is actively seeking to diversify and strengthen its supply chains in Asia. Bangladesh, with its competitive labour force, growing industrial zones and strategic location, can position itself as a reliable partner.

“The agreement reduces trade risks by establishing clear dispute settlement mechanisms and regulatory transparency,” he said. “This gives Japanese firms greater confidence in sourcing from and investing in Bangladesh.”

He added that improved customs cooperation and streamlined procedures will reduce delays and enhance reliability — a key factor in modern supply chains.

“As supply chains become more integrated, bilateral trade will not only grow in volume but also in sophistication,” he said.

Bhuiyan stressed that small and medium enterprises (SMEs) must be prepared to take advantage of the EPA’s opportunities.

Export-oriented SMEs in garments are already integrated into global value chains, but other sectors may require capacity building.

“Compliance with rules of origin and technical standards will be crucial,” he said. “Government agencies and business associations must work together to ensure that exporters understand and utilise the agreement effectively.”

He also pointed to the importance of upgrading logistics infrastructure, including ports and cold chain facilities, to support higher trade volumes.

“Trade agreements create opportunities, but implementation determines the outcome,” he added,

While the EPA may not result in an immediate surge in trade volumes, Bhuiyan expressed confidence that it will generate steady and sustainable growth in bilateral trade over the medium to long term.

“This agreement marks a transition from a unilateral preference system to a mutually negotiated partnership,” he said. “It creates stability for our exports and enables structured expansion of trade in both directions.”

He emphasised that the success of the EPA will depend on proactive implementation, regulatory strengthening and private sector engagement in both countries.

“The framework is now in place,” Bhuiyan said. “If we utilise it effectively, Bangladesh–Japan bilateral trade can expand in volume, diversify in composition and deepen in value addition.”

Picture this: Dhaka, 9 February 2026. Three days before a national election, in a room sealed from public scrutiny, officials sign the Agreement on Reciprocal Trade (ART) with the United States.

No parliamentary debate. No press conference. No disclosure of terms.

Twenty-four hundred kilometres west, in New Delhi, textile exporters scan the leaked fine prints. Their conclusion: Bangladesh has locked itself into buying expensive American cotton in exchange for tariff access. Production costs will rise. Profit margins will shrink.

But the real story runs deeper.

Article 4.3 contains a sleeper clause: if Bangladesh signs any agreement with a "non-market-based country" — Washington's shorthand for China or Russia — the US can cancel all preferences overnight.

Bangladesh commits to supporting US actions to protect American economic security. Dhaka agrees to restrict the unauthorised exports of US-controlled items and develop export control systems with Washington.

This is not a trade agreement. This is a strategic straitjacket, tailored in the 12 days before an election, while the nation looked away.

The missing filter

Hossain Zillur Rahman's six-point memo to the new government is essential reading — a sharp domestic diagnostic on jobless growth, mesoeconomics, and effective compassion. He is right about the internal fractures. But the world outside has fractured too.

The global economy is no longer neutral. It has become a battlefield. Western economic warfare, supply chain decoupling, and the rise of a multipolar world have transformed every major economic decision into a geopolitical choice. A power plant is not just megawatts. A 5G contract is not just bandwidth. A trade deal is not just tariffs.

Bangladesh needs a seventh signal: a dual-filter framework embedded into governance. Every decision on export diversification, energy security, and digital infrastructure must pass two tests.

First, does it advance domestic economic goals? This is Rahman's framework.

Second, does it increase or decrease our strategic vulnerability in a fracturing world? This is the missing framework, and without it, competence alone will not steer us through the storm.

The 9 February deal through both filters

Apply this dual filter to the US-Bangladesh ART agreement.

Through the first lens, the deal offers duty-free access for approximately 2,500 products. Export volumes to the United States could rise from $8.7 billion to $12 billion within two years. On paper, this deal appears to advance national interests.

The second lens reveals a straitjacket. Tariff-rate quota volumes for apparel will be determined by US textile imports. Garments made using Indian, Brazilian or African cotton may not qualify for preferential access. Bangladesh's entire apparel value chain must pivot toward higher-cost US inputs.

Worse, sovereignty clauses restrict future foreign policy. Sign an agreement with Beijing that Washington deems harmful? The deal terminates. Purchase nuclear reactors from Russia or China? Explicitly prohibited. Pursue digital cooperation with non-Western partners? Restricted.

The agreement also locks Dhaka into purchasing $15 billion of American Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) over 15 years, plus commitments to buy 14 Boeing aircraft — a $3-4 billion decision made without consulting Biman's technical committee, which was still evaluating competing proposals from Airbus.

This is not economic policy. It is surrendering fiscal sovereignty.

Bangladesh needs a seventh signal: a dual-filter framework embedded into governance. Every decision on export diversification, energy security and digital infrastructure must pass two tests: first, does it advance domestic economic goals, and second, does it increase or decrease our strategic vulnerability in a fracturing world?

Export diversification beyond the cotton trap

Bangladesh's export basket remains heavily concentrated in a few sectors. Ready-made garments account for over 80% of earnings. Four markets — the European Union, the United States, Canada, and Japan — absorb 68% of exports. This is a single point of failure wrapped in cotton.

The Global South offers alternatives without strategic shackles. In January 2026, Bangladesh Bank announced cash incentives for 43 export categories, including light engineering, halal meat, leather goods, pharmaceuticals, and software-enabled services. The halal economy alone is projected to reach $10 trillion by 2030.

Local currency settlement mechanisms are reducing exposure to dollar volatility across Asia. About 90% of commerce among Brics nations is now settled in local currencies, up from roughly 65% two years ago.

The Brics Pay platform, presented at the October 2024 Kazan Summit, connects national payment systems — China's Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS), India's Unified Payments Interface (UPI), Russia's System for Transfer of Financial Messages (SPFS), and Brazil's instant payment network PIX — enabling local-currency transactions via QR codes without intermediaries.

These are operational frameworks Bangladesh can study and adapt.

Energy security as geopolitical choice

Every power plant tells a story about whose technology a nation trusts. The Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant, built with Russian technology, is expected to begin operations this year.

The Matarbari coal plant, developed with Japanese assistance, represents another model. The LNG terminals supplied by US and Qatari partners represent a third. Each carries different strategic implications and different exposure to sanctions.

Bangladesh must prioritise its energy security. The 9 February deal bars Bangladesh from purchasing nuclear reactors, fuel rods or enriched uranium from any country that 'jeopardises essential US interests', offering exceptions only for existing contracts. This is a pre-emptive strike against future energy choices.

In January 2026, the Ministry of Power submitted a 25-year master plan to Chief Advisor Muhammad Yunus, focusing on offshore gas exploration, LNG supply security, and hydrogen infrastructure. The plan projects electricity demand rising from 17 to 59 gigawatts by 2050, requiring investments exceeding $177 billion. Bangladesh must ensure its energy future remains its own to decide.

Digital infrastructure and data sovereignty

The twenty-first century's most valuable resource is data. The infrastructure that carries it — undersea cables, data centres and cloud platforms — is increasingly contested terrain.

The draft National AI Policy 2026-2030 explicitly emphasises "digital sovereignty", aiming to safeguard critical data and citizens' rights. A cornerstone is the development of a Bangla-based large language model to preserve cultural heritage and protect intellectual property from foreign exploitation.

The policy warns that automation may threaten up to 60.8% of garment sector jobs, affecting around 2.7 million workers.

Yet the 9 February deal commits Bangladesh to "permit the free transfer of data across trusted borders" and support a permanent moratorium on customs duties on electronic transmissions at the World Trade Organisation (WTO). These provisions constrain Dhaka's ability to negotiate different data governance frameworks with other partners.

The emerging cooperation among Asean, China, and Gulf states on digital trade platforms offers an alternative model — built on connectivity rather than control. These frameworks do not require choosing against the West. They require building enough relationships that no single partner can dictate terms.

The seventh signal

Zillur Rahman's six signals provide a strong domestic foundation. But they assume a world that no longer exists. The seventh signal is this: Bangladesh's economic and foreign policy can no longer be separated. Every decision on export markets, energy partners, and digital infrastructure is simultaneously an economic calculation and a geopolitical commitment.

The new government must institutionalise this understanding. Create a National Economic Security Council bringing together trade, finance, energy, and foreign policy officials. Require strategic vulnerability assessments for every major international agreement. Task the central bank with a formal assessment of platforms like Brics Pay — not as alternatives to Western systems, but as complements that ensure the dollar is not the only option.

The choice before the BNP government is not between East and West. The choice is between accepting a straitjacket designed elsewhere and building enough relationships and enough strategic literacy that Bangladesh's future remains Bangladesh's to write.

Hossain Zillur Rahman is right: the start is grounded in optimism. But optimism without strategic clarity is just wishful thinking dressed in the national flag. The seventh signal must come now — before the next agreement is signed in secret, before the next straitjacket is tailored, before the next crossroads becomes a dead end.

Zakir Kibria is a Bangladeshi writer, policy analyst and entrepreneur based in Kathmandu, Nepal.

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and views of The Business Standard.

LafargeHolcim Bangladesh PLC reported a strong financial performance in 2025, posting a 34% year-on-year rise in profit driven by higher sales, premium product demand and steady growth in its aggregates business despite a slowdown in the construction sector.

According to the company's price-sensitive disclosure and press release issued on 11 March, the multinational cement maker recorded a net profit of Tk510 crore for the year, up from Tk382 crore in 2024. Revenue also increased by 6% to Tk2,931 crore from Tk2,754 crore a year earlier, while operating profit grew 11% to Tk655 crore from Tk587 crore.

The company said the growth came amid steady business momentum and stronger customer engagement, even as the broader construction industry faced headwinds due to reduced public sector spending and tighter private credit conditions.

Reflecting the improved profitability, LafargeHolcim recommended a total 40% cash dividend for shareholders for the year 2025. The payout includes an 18% interim cash dividend already distributed earlier in the year and a proposed 22% final cash dividend. The total dividend amounts to roughly Tk465 crore, equivalent to 40% of the company's paid-up capital.

The dividend proposal will be placed for approval at the company's annual general meeting scheduled for 13 May, while the record date to determine eligible shareholders has been set for 9 April.

Iqbal Chowdhury, chief executive officer of LafargeHolcim Bangladesh, said the company managed to deliver strong results despite challenging market conditions.

"In 2025, the broader construction industry faced headwinds from subdued public sector investment and constrained private credit growth. Yet, LafargeHolcim Bangladesh delivered a strong performance," he said.

He added that the company achieved volume growth in both the cement and aggregates segments, reflecting strong customer confidence in its products and services.

According to Chowdhury, the company's focus on innovation has also contributed to business expansion. Specialised cement products such as "Water Protect" and "Fair Face" registered significant growth during the year, indicating strong consumer preference for premium solutions.

Alongside its commercial success, the company also continued its sustainability initiatives. Through its Geocycle platform, LafargeHolcim co-processed more than 45,000 tonnes of non-recyclable materials in 2025 and replaced around 11% of fossil fuel consumption with alternative fuels.

Chowdhury said the company also faced profitability pressures from rising energy costs and market volatility but addressed these challenges through cost-efficiency measures and strategic pricing adjustments.

The company began in 2026 with the launch of new specialised cement products, including "Holcim Coastal Guard" designed for coastal construction projects and "Powercrete" targeted at the ready-mix concrete segment.

These innovations are aimed at meeting specialised customer needs while strengthening the company's competitive position in Bangladesh's construction materials market.

In terms of market performance, LafargeHolcim shares recently closed at Tk50.60 on the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE), down 0.59% from the previous trading session. The company's market capitalisation currently stands at around Tk5,877 crore.

As of February, sponsors and directors held 63.39% of the company's shares, while institutional investors owned 22.09%. Foreign investors accounted for 0.80% of the shareholding, with the remaining 13.72% held by general public investors.

LafargeHolcim Bangladesh, listed on the DSE in 2003 as a greenfield investment, is one of the country's leading building materials producers. The company has invested nearly $500 million in Bangladesh, representing one of the largest foreign direct investments in the cement sector.

The investment enabled the establishment of a fully integrated cement plant along with three grinding stations, strengthening the company's production capacity and supply chain.

The company operates as a joint venture between Switzerland-based Holcim Group and Spain-based Cementos Molins. Leveraging advanced technology and skilled professionals, the company produces a wide range of cement and building material solutions for infrastructure and real estate projects.

Looking ahead, the company said it is focusing on several strategic priorities to sustain profitability in the coming quarters. These include improving operational efficiency, investing in a lower-cost energy mix through alternative fuels, diversifying the product portfolio and strengthening pricing strategies.

At the same time, LafargeHolcim is continuing investments in sustainability initiatives and digital transformation to enhance productivity and reinforce its long-term market leadership in Bangladesh's building materials industry.

Bangladesh's foreign exchange reserves stood at US$34.29 billion, according to the latest data released by the Bangladesh Bank (BB) today (Wednesday). Bangladesh Economic Report

Under the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) BPM-6 accounting method, the reserves stood at $29.57 billion, it added, BSS reports.

President Donald Trump on Tuesday said Indian energy giant Reliance Industries was backing a deal to build the first new major oil refinery in the United States in half a century.

Trump made the announcement via his Truth Social platform, saying the company America First Refining would construct the new facility at the Port of Brownsville, Texas.

“This is a historic $300 billion dollar deal -- the biggest in US history,” Trump wrote, framing the project as a cornerstone of his energy agenda, but offering no details on the plan.

“Thank you to our partners in India, and their largest privately held Energy Company, Reliance, for this tremendous Investment,” he said, without specifying the company’s commitment.

Reliance is India’s biggest privately held conglomerate and its Jamnagar refinery is the world’s largest.

The America First Refining website says the company is a project of Element Fuels, which first announced plans in 2024 to build a Brownsville refinery at cost of between $3-$4 billion.

The facility would be the first refinery built on the Gulf of Mexico since the 1970s, and the only one designed to process 100 percent American shale oil, the company said.

Pubali Bank PLC has approved a plan to raise $100 million through a five-year Green Bond as part of the bank's sustainable finance initiatives.

According to a price sensitive information disclosure issued on Wednesday (11 March), the decision was taken at the bank's board meeting held on Wednesday at its Gulshan corporate branch.

The bank said in its statement, the fund will be raised through the issuance of a Green Bond with a tenure of five years to support projects aligned with sustainable and environmentally responsible financing.

The bank said the initiative will follow Green Bond Principles of the International Capital Market Association (ICMA), along with guidelines of the International Finance Corporation (IFC) and Bangladesh's Sustainable Finance Policy framework.

The proposed bond issuance will be subject to approvals from relevant regulatory authorities and compliance with applicable regulations.

Stocks ended almost flat today (11 March), with the DSEX – the benchmark index of the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) – rising by 2.50 points after two days of recovery.

Following the trading session in two-days, most of the stocks today increased but turnover fell 12% to Tk523.59 crore as investors remained watchful of the current situation.

Within the two trading sessions (9 and 10 March), DSEX recovered 280 points to close at 5,290, mostly riding on large-cap blue-chip stocks, including banks.

On Tuesday, the DSEX surged 148 points, fuelled by price gains in shares of banks and telecom sector stocks with 87% of issues advancing after absorbing the recent massive sell-offs.

Earlier, stocks suffered a highest single-day fall in six years on Sunday, the first trading session of the week as escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East triggered panic selling across the market.

The index plunged 231 points, or 4.42%, to close at 5,008, hitting a two-month low and marking the biggest one-day decline since the Covid-19 pandemic era.

The other major indices – DSES, surged by 3.90 points to 1,062 and DS30 with 30 leading companies and is considered the exchange's investable index, declined 0.81 points.

EBL Securities in its daily market commentary said that the capital bourse displayed a mixed trading pattern as investors remained watchful amid ongoing developments surrounding the Middle East conflict, prompting the benchmark index to close largely on a flat note.

"Investors were active on both sides of the trading fence, while cautious investors utilized the recent market recovery to lock in gains from sector-specific large-cap scrips and preferred to observe the market's trend," it said.

Meanwhile, price appreciation was evident in several speculative and momentum-driven stocks as opportunistic investors continued to chase potential quick gains.

On the sectoral front, Pharma accounted for the highest share of turnover by 18.4%, followed by Bank 16.3% and Textile 11.4%. In the previous two trading sessions, bank stocks lead in strong recovery as most banks price surges.

Of the 391 issues traded, 236 advanced, 98 declined, and 57 remained unchanged.

People's Leasing topped the gainer list hitting upper circuit, a highest single day limit capped by the regulator, by 10% to Tk3.3 each at the DSE.

Followed by Fareast Finance by 10% to Tk3.3 each, Fas Finance by 10% to Tk3.3 each, HR Textile by 9.86% to Tk21.1 each, and Anlima Yarn by 9.73% to Tk20.3 each.

While on the losing side, National Bank topped the loser list as its shares price fell by 5.55% to Tk5.1 each, followed by Tung Hai Knitting by 5.40% to Tk3.5 each, Mithun Knitting by 3.63% to Tk15.9 each.

The port city bourse, CSE, also settled on a positive territory. The Selective Categories' Index (CSCX) and All Share Price Index (CASPI) advanced by 31.5 points and 48.5 points, respectively.

Bangladesh will purchase three more cargoes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) on the spot market from South Korean and UK-based companies at more than double the price paid in December, as the government moves to prevent a looming energy crisis.

The cabinet committee on public purchase approved the deal yesterday. The three shipments are expected to arrive between April 5 and April 13.

UK-based TotalEnergies Gas & Power Ltd will supply one cargo at $21.58 per MMBtu (Million Metric British Thermal Units), while South Korea-based Posco International Corporation will provide two cargoes at $20.76 per MMBtu.

The government will spend around Tk 2,660 crore on these deliveries, adding pressure on the fiscal budget.

Earlier, state-run Petrobangla secured two emergency LNG cargoes for March deliveries from the spot market at nearly three times December prices due to supply uncertainties caused by rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

One cargo was purchased from US-based Gunvor at $28.28 per MMBtu, a 183 percent increase over December rates, while a second shipment from Vitol cost $23.08 per MMBtu, according to Petrobangla officials.

Previously, the government had approved LNG purchases at $9.99 per MMBtu in December and $11.97 per MMBtu in July, highlighting how sharply spot-market prices have risen. This situation highlights how vulnerable South Asian markets are to global price swings when shipping routes face disruption.

“We had to pay a steep premium because suppliers were increasingly reluctant to submit bids,” a Petrobangla official said on condition of anonymity. “The ongoing Middle East crisis has reduced the number of participants willing to make short-term deliveries to this region.”

LNG prices, which had been gradually falling, spiked last week due to the US-Israel war on Iran. Bangladesh had to turn to the spot market after failing to attract bidders for two consecutive days, even at more than double the usual rate.

This comes amid ongoing uncertainty over timely shipments from Qatar, as Gulf shipping remains heavily disrupted. Tehran has threatened to “set fire” to vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil chokepoint connecting the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea.

Bangladesh meets nearly 30 percent of its gas demand through imported LNG, while domestic output continues to fall short of the total requirement of about 2,650 mmcfd (million cubic feet per day).

The country also spends around $1 billion annually to import over 6 million tonnes of petroleum, mostly sourced from the Middle East, with more than half of LNG imports in 2025 passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

In other approvals, the government yesterday cleared the purchase of 3.10 lakh litres of rice bran oil and palm oil. Indonesian bidder Powerhouse General Trading will supply 1.30 lakh litres of palm oil, while local suppliers will provide rice bran oil.

Additionally, the cabinet committee on public purchase approved the buying of 240 megawatts of electricity from a gas-based power plant of the Electricity Generation Company of Bangladesh at a cost of Tk 23,880 crore, with a tariff rate of Tk 3.3664 per kilowatt-hour.

The Bangladesh government has sent a letter to India seeking energy assistance in light of the situation created by the ongoing war in the Middle East.

Indian High Commissioner to Bangladesh Pranay Verma confirmed the development today (11 March) after a meeting with State Minister for Power, Energy and Mineral Resources Iqbal Hassan Mahmood at the Secretariat.

Responding to questions from journalists, the Indian envoy said, "We have received a formal letter from the government of Bangladesh requesting additional assistance. I have accepted it and will forward it to the concerned authorities for prompt consideration."

Regarding the discussion at the meeting, Verma said India and Bangladesh maintain a very strong connection in the power and energy sectors, which is one of the key pillars of their economic cooperation.

He noted that cross-border electricity transmission lines and pipelines between the two countries are currently operational, adding that the meeting also discussed ways to further strengthen this cooperation.

Garment exports from Bangladesh to non-traditional markets declined by 6.34 percent year-on-year to $4.24 billion in the July-February period of the current fiscal year.

Every market other than the European Union (EU), the UK, Canada, and the US is considered non-traditional or emerging for Bangladesh.

The total market share of garment exports to non-traditional markets stood at 16.44 percent during this time, according to data from the Export Promotion Bureau (EPB).

In the same period, Bangladesh’s total RMG exports reached $25.8 billion, registering a 3.73 percent year-on-year fall.

The EU remained Bangladesh’s largest export destination for RMG, accounting for 49.18 percent of total exports in this category. Export earnings from the bloc stood at $12.69 billion, registering a year-on-year decline of 5.49 percent.

The US retained its position as the second-largest market, with RMG exports amounting to $5.03 billion during the period. This represented 19.50 percent of total RMG exports, though shipments fell by 0.74 percent year-on-year.

Exports to Canada and the UK showed positive momentum. Apparel exports to Canada grew by 3.08 percent in July-February to reach $871.58 million, representing a 3.38 percent share.

Shipments to the UK slightly increased by 1.22 percent to $2.97 billion, accounting for an 11.5 percent share.

The knitwear segment recorded a 4.56 percent fall to $13.68 billion, while woven exports fell by 2.79 percent to $12.10 billion during the same period.

Finance Minister Amir Khasru Mahmud Chowdhury said Bangladesh has sought a temporary waiver from the United States to purchase Russian oil, similar to the exemption granted to India, amid a global fuel crisis due to tensions in the Middle East.

"We told them [US] that if Bangladesh is given a similar opportunity, it would greatly support our economy. They have said the matter will be sent to Washington. Now we will see what happens," the minister told journalists after a meeting with US Ambassador to Bangladesh Brent T Christensen at the planning minister's office in Sher-e-Bangla Nagar today (11 March).

Indian refiners buying prompt Russian oil as Iran war hits supplies, sources say

Khasru said that the meeting mainly discussed the uncertainty in the international energy market, particularly regarding oil and gas supply.

Issues related to increasing investment, trade, and economic cooperation between Bangladesh and the United States were also discussed at the meeting.

The minister added that there were discussions on capacity building of various government institutions as well.

Govt seeks seamless fuel import from China, ramps up diesel imports from India

Responding to questions from journalists, he said that no specific decision was made in the meeting regarding a possible trade agreement with the United States.

He said, "A trade agreement is a matter between two countries. It is not possible for us to say anything specific right now. However, we are considering how the issue can be utilised in the best possible way for Bangladesh's interests."

In response to a question about the government's course of action if the current international conflict becomes prolonged, he said the government is preparing by considering different possible scenarios.

"Whether the war is short-term, medium-term, or prolonged we are planning by taking every situation into account. These issues were discussed in detail today," Khasru said.

Despite adequate imports and stocks of edible oil and sugar in Bangladesh, panic-buying triggered by fears over the ongoing US-Israel-Iran war has created shortages at the retail level in the capital.

Traders and importers say there is no actual supply crisis, noting that the country still holds sufficient stocks to meet demand for at least a month, while import activities remain normal.

A visit to several markets in the capital showed that loose soybean oil is being sold at Tk178-193 per kilogramme. Five-litre bottles are selling for Tk940-Tk955, while two-litre bottles are priced between Tk390 and Tk395. Palm oil is being sold at Tk158-Tk162 per kilogramme, and sugar at Tk100-Tk105 per kilogramme.

In many neighbourhood grocery stores, however, the supply of soybean oil appears insufficient compared with demand. Five-litre bottles are largely unavailable, according to retailers, a situation that has persisted for around two weeks.

Traders say the shortage is mainly due to a surge in consumer demand. Mohammad Saiful Islam, a trader in Dhaka's Shahjadpur, said companies are supplying very limited quantities of bottled oil.

"We hardly receive five-litre bottles, and two-litre bottles arrive only occasionally. Companies are saying they themselves do not have enough supply. People have also been buying more than usual, but at the moment I simply do not have the product to sell," he said.

Among consumers, anxiety about the war has also led to stockpiling. Israt Jahan Lipsa, a resident of Mohammadpur and a former banker, said she bought two months' worth of groceries after the war began.

"During crises or disasters, food prices usually rise and sometimes products become unavailable. We have seen this before, so I bought two months' worth of supplies in advance so that we would not face problems if shortages occur," she said.

At the wholesale level, however, traders say the supply of edible oil and sugar remains sufficient. At Karwan Bazar in the capital, wholesaler Mamunur Rashid said there had been minor disruptions for a day or two, but the situation has now normalised.

According to the commerce ministry, Bangladesh's annual demand for soybean and palm oil is around 25 lakh tonnes, while sugar demand stands at about 20-21 lakh tonnes.

Of this, only around 30,000-37,000 tonnes of sugar are produced locally. Demand for both commodities peaks during Ramadan, when around 3 lakh tonnes of each are required.

Ample storage confirmed by importers

Officials from oil and sugar importing companies also insist there is no real shortage. They say panic buying is largely responsible for the temporary supply pressure in the retail market, adding that private companies currently hold at least one month's stock.

Supplier companies have also rejected claims of a soybean oil shortage, saying the scarcity at local shops is the result of panic-buying rather than supply disruption. Some industry insiders, however, said a few companies, including Bashundhara, faced difficulties opening letters of credit (LCs), which may have created limited supply constraints.

Taslim Shahriar, deputy general manager of Meghna Group, one of the leading suppliers of consumer goods, said the company imported additional oil and sugar during January and February compared with regular months.

"We are supplying more than 50,000 tonnes of oil per month. There should be no shortage," he said, adding that if problems arise at the dealer level, the Directorate of National Consumer Rights Protection should take action.

Echoing the view, Biswajit Saha, executive director of City Group, said the company has not reduced supply. He noted that some smaller firms are struggling to import edible oil due to LC-related complications.

"The temporary shortage may be linked to the extra demand during Ramadan and stockpiling by some consumers," he said.

Zohurul Islam, business manager of ACI Limited, said the current stock of soybean oil in the country should be sufficient for about a month.

"So far, we have not increased prices, and there should be no need to do so within the next 15 to 20 days. However, if crude oil prices rise in the global market, it will inevitably have an impact everywhere," he said.

Strict monitoring urged

SM Nazer Hossain, vice-president of the Consumers Association of Bangladesh, said the issue cannot be blamed solely on consumers.

"During such situations, many dealers and retailers also start hoarding products, which creates artificial shortages and allows them to sell at higher prices," he said.

Nazer urged the government to conduct inspections of warehouses to check if there is any case of hoarding.

"According to our estimates, there are about six months' worth of crude sugar and edible oil either in stock or in the import pipeline. Since these products also require time for refining, there is no question of a real shortage. This appears to be an attempt to create an artificial crisis to raise prices," he added.