Analysts expect spot gold prices, which hit a record high above $5,000 per ounce on Monday, to climb further toward $6,000 this year ​on mounting global tensions as well as strong central-bank and retail demand.

Gold raced to a peak of $5,092.70 as geopolitical and economic risks rattled markets. ‌The safe-haven metal is up more than 17 percent this year, after soaring 64 percent in 2025.

The London Bullion Market Association's annual precious metals forecast survey shows analysts projecting gold rising as high as $7,150 and averaging $4,742 in 2026.

Goldman Sachs has raised its December 2026 gold price forecast to $5,400 from $4,900.

Independent analyst Ross Norman expects a high of $6,400 this year, with an average of $5,375.

"The only certainty at the moment seems to be uncertainty, and that's playing very much into gold's hands," Norman said.

GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS

Gold's recent rally has been fuelled by geopolitical tensions, ‌from the US–NATO friction over Greenland and tariff uncertainty to rising doubts over the independence of the US Federal Reserve, among others.

"With the upcoming US ​mid-term elections, political uncertainty may increase further. At the same time, persistent concerns about over-valued equity markets are likely to reinforce portfolio diversification flows into gold," said Philip Newman, a director at Metals Focus.

"After crossing the $5,000/ounce milestone, we expect further upside," he added.

ROBUST CENTRAL BANK PURCHASES

Central-bank gold buying, a key driver of prices in ‍2025, is expected to stay strong this year.

Goldman Sachs forecasts purchases to average 60 metric tons a month as emerging-market central banks continue diversifying reserves into gold.

Poland's central bank, which held 550 tons of gold at end-2025, aims to lift reserves to 700 tons, Governor Adam Glapinski said this month.

These plans reaffirm the view that the key driver behind the spike in gold is ⁠central banks "looking to de-dollarise ... and where else could you go except into gold?" Norman said.

China's central bank extended its gold-buying spree for a 14th month in December.

ETF ‍INFLOWS, RETAIL DEMAND

Inflows into gold-backed ETFs, which store bullion for investors and account for a significant amount of investment demand for the metal, are also underpinning prices as markets expect ‌further US ‌rate cuts this year.

"There's an opportunity cost to holding gold which has no yield. As interest rates decline, so does this opportunity cost. If the Fed continues to lower rates in 2026, demand for gold should rise," said Chris Mancini, co-portfolio manager of the Gabelli Gold Fund.

Gold ETFs saw record inflows in 2025, led by North American funds, according to World Gold Council data, with annual inflows surging to $89 billion. In tonnage terms, inflows totalled 801 metric tons, the highest since their record in ⁠2020.

"There's an opportunity cost to holding gold which has no yield. As interest rates decline, so does this opportunity cost. If the Fed continues to lower rates in 2026, demand for gold should rise," said Chris Mancini, co-portfolio manager of the Gabelli Gold Fund.

Gold ETFs saw record inflows in 2025, led by North American funds, according to World Gold Council data, with annual inflows surging to $89 billion. In tonnage terms, inflows totalled 801 metric tons, the highest since their record in ⁠2020.

"You don't need to analyse a balance sheet, assess credit risk or ‍worry about a country or sovereign risk," he said. "Your only risk with physical gold is the price direction. And as geopolitics and geoeconomics have become more complicated ... that simplicity has become more attractive."

WHAT'S NEXT FOR GOLD?

Analysts say several factors could trigger a correction, including a pullback in US rate-cut expectations, margin calls in equities, and easing concerns about Fed independence.

However, most expect any pullback to ​be short-lived and treated as a buying opportunity.

"A meaningful and sustained decline in gold would require ‍a return to a more stable economic and geopolitical backdrop, which currently appears unlikely," Newman added.

Savings certificates (Sanchayapatras) are being made tradable on bond market, among other measures, to systematically force or encourage corporates through applying push and pull factors to meet their long-term financing needs from outside banks.

This switch from banks to capital market for large-and long-tenure borrowings is planned as the government seeks to make the bond market vibrant and thus relieve the banks of burdens of corporate and industrial financing, according to a disclosure made Monday.

The move is meant not only to help overcome prevailing liquidity mismatch in banks through lessening NPL (non-performing loan) buildups but also ensure comparatively low-cost and long-term funding instruments for the enterprises, according to a joint study titled 'Bond Market Development in Bangladesh: Challenges and Recommendations' rolled out at a meet.

Bangladesh Bank (BB), under instructions from the chief adviser of the post-uprising government for easing mounting pressure on banks, took the initiative and made the study paper in collaboration with Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) and Financial Institutions Division (FID).Online newspaper reader

Finance Adviser Dr Salehuddin Ahmed was supposed to be present as chief guest at the seminar sharing the study findings and recommendations but he didn't turn up reportedly on health grounds. BB governor Dr Ahsan H. Mansur chaired the event.

Talking about the supply side in developing bond market, the BB governor said they plan to bring corporate sector under push factor. They will push the corporate entities out of the banking sector, not entirely but partial financing requirement must be met through the bond market.

He said the central bank will soon sit with the corporate bodies having lower bond-market exposure to understand what kinds of supports they need from the regulators to get encouraged into the bond market.

"We will not allow corporate to exceed single-borrower-exposure limit. To meet their funding requirements, they either go for overseas borrowing or look for bond and capital markets. We want to apply such push factors," he told the audience.

At the same time, the central-bank governor said, they need to provide them pull factors through which the corporate entities will be attracted to explore the untapped potential available on the bond market.Banking services comparison

Under the pull factors, according to him, the government might consider steps to cut bond-issuing timeline and costs along with revisiting prevailing tax treatment and other forms of incentives.

Mr. Mansur, who took the central bank leadership soon after the July-August mass uprising in 2024, said private-sector bond market will not be developed through a liquid, strong and vibrant public-sector bond market.

The country has a huge saving-certificate market of around Tk 6.0 trillion. "If we make it tradable on the secondary market so that the investors can sell it at a discounted premium, whatever the market rate prevails at the time, it will increase the bond market size by another Tk 6.0 trillion very quickly. It is easily doable. Just a decision is needed," the governor said.

President of the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC)-Bangladesh Mahbubur Rahman said that the country's capital market suffers a lot for lack of equities and stocks.

"If bond market is developed here, it will be easier for private enterprises to mobilise funds to meet their capital need," he said.

The renowned business leader said the corporate-bond market would also help the banks lessen their NPL burden. "It has a huge potential and all need to work jointly to make it a success."

Director-General of Bangladesh Institute of Bank Management (BIBM) Dr Md Ezazul Islam, one of the two lead authors of the study paper, said the individual ceiling in savings certificate needs to be lifted aligning the rate with the market and making it tradable on the secondary market.

"It will certainly help allow savers to invest in the savings instruments as much as they can and it will make the market more competitive."

Dr Islam prepared the study along with the other when he was leading the monetary policy department of the central bank before his recent joining as DG of BIBM.

Sharing global market scenario, he said the global market size of bonds, stock market and money market was worth $130 billion, $90 billion and $60 billion respectively in the first half of 2025.

But Bangladesh's financial sector remains heavily bank-dependent-around 80 per cent of debt financing in Bangladesh comes from banks.

"The excessive dependence on bank financing is neither good for the health of the banking system nor for the enterprises," he added.

Finance Secretary Dr Md Khairuzzaman Mozumder said credit mismatch emerged as a serious problem hurting the banking sector badly. To ease the pressure on banks, they plan to develop the bond market.

He said they plan to take the national savings certificate into the secondary market soon. "We have already formed a committee comprising officials from BB, FID and BESEC to this effect."

Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Khondoker Rashed Maqsood said the chief adviser had instructed them to make a plan how the heavily bank-depended economy can be converted to a capital market-dependent economy.

Since then, he said, they had sat with the central bankers several times to find out challenges and ways-out to facilitate the transition.

Bangladesh Bank research director Md. Abdul Wahab, the other lead author of the paper, said successful implementation of the proposed action plan would facilitate the development of a vibrant and robust bond market in the near term that will support sustainable economic growth and strengthening financial stability.Online newspaper reader

Deputy governors of BB Dr Md Habibur Rahman and Nurun Nahar, vice- chairman of PRAN Group Uzma Chowdhury, BSEC commissioner Md. Saifuddin, Association of Bankers Bangladesh (ABB) leader Mashrur Arefin, Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) Chairman Mominul Islam and Dhaka University Professor Mahmud Osman Imam, among others, spoke at the seminar.

With gold hitting a new record in the global market, prices of the precious metal have reached a fresh high of Tk 262,440 per bhori, breaking all previous records.

The new rate will come into effect tomorrow, according to an announcement by the Bangladesh Jewellers Association (Bajus) today.

The price is 2.04 percent, or Tk 5,248, higher per bhori (11.664 grammes) than Tk 257,191, at which gold was traded in the country.

The association said prices of pure gold and silver have increased in the market.

The announcement came hours after gold prices marched to record levels above $5,100 in the international market today, as investors sought a safe haven amid global political tensions.

Silver and platinum also climbed to all-time highs.

Spot gold rose 2 percent to $5,079.66 an ounce by 8:15 a.m. ET (1315 GMT), after hitting a record $5,110.50. US gold futures for February delivery gained 2 percent to $5,078.50.

Prices were also supported by weakness in the US dollar, which lingered near a multi-month low, making dollar-priced assets more affordable for holders of other currencies.

For precious metals this year, the major drivers are going to be "Trump and Trump," said Adrian Ash, head of research at online marketplace BullionVault.

"A wave of new first-time investing is driving this move in precious metals. It is being led by private investors across Asia and Europe, rushing to build their personal holdings of gold and silver," he added.

In Dhaka, this is the third consecutive day of a rise in gold prices.

The price of safe-haven asset gold surpassed $5,000 on Sunday (25 January), hitting a record amid rising global uncertainty and turmoil set off by US President Donald Trump's policies.

Gold reached $5,026 an ounce in trading after sister metal silver blasted through $102 an ounce for the first time on Friday.

While turbulence over Trump's ambitions for Greenland and pressure on the Federal Reserve have provided the most recent support for gold, the precious metal has for two years achieved all-time peaks on factors ranging from a weak dollar, strong central bank demand and elevated inflation.

Gold stood at just above $2,000 an ounce in January 2024.

The precious metal's price has also risen due to the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, as well as Washington's intervention in Venezuela.

"Over the past few days, gold's price action has been textbook safe-haven behaviour," said Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at Forex.com.

"Underlying demand for protection is still there. Confidence in the dollar and bonds looks a bit shaky."

'Slow-burning support'

Trump backed away last week from threatened tariffs on several European nations because of their opposition to Washington seizing the mineral-rich Arctic island of Greenland.

But his comments set off a bruising transatlantic crisis, reviving trade war fears and uncertainty about US investment.

The dollar plunged to a four-month low against the euro while gold prices surged.

"Gold pressed on to a fresh record high as geopolitical tensions remain elevated," Neil Wilson, investor strategist at Saxo UK, noted Friday.

"The extreme tail risk of a US military intervention in Greenland was never being priced by markets. Worries about an escalatory trade war were."

Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen visited Greenland's capital on Friday for talks with the territory's leader.

Investors were additionally preparing for this week's Federal Reserve policy meeting, which comes after US prosecutors took aim at its boss Jerome Powell, raising fears over the bank's independence.

Trump has made no secret of his disdain for Powell, claiming there is "no inflation" and repeatedly questioning the Fed chair's competence and integrity.

The heads of major central banks threw their support behind the Fed and Powell last week, after US prosecutors issued subpoenas against him that threaten a criminal indictment.

"Add in lingering doubts around central bank independence and you are left with a slow-burning support base for gold," said independent analyst Stephen Innes.

Gold demand by value surged 44% year-on-year to a record $146 billion in the third quarter of last year, the World Gold Council has said in its latest report.

There has been strong demand for gold also via Exchange-Traded Funds on stock markets. ETFs allow investment without trading on the gold futures market.

Trading at the country’s stock markets showed a mixed trend in the first half of the second trading day of the week, with indices falling on the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) while rising on the Chittagong Stock Exchange (CSE).

At the DSE, the market opened on a negative note. The benchmark DSEX index shed 7 points, while the blue-chip DS30 index lost 3 points. The Shariah-based DSES index, however, remained unchanged.

Most shares witnessed price declines, as prices of 195 companies fell against 101 gainers, while 90 issues remained unchanged.

The turnover at the DSE crossed Tk 2.10 billion during the first half of the session.

Meanwhile, the CSE posted gains in early trading. The overall CASPI index rose by 16 points.

The prices of 38 companies advanced against 34 losers, while shares of 21 companies remained unchanged.

During the first half, shares and units worth around Tk 7.0 million were traded on the CSE.

The Bangladesh Textile Mills Association (BTMA) has called for urgent government intervention to stop what it described as unfair advantages in yarn imports that are severely affecting local spinning mills.

The demand was raised at a meeting on Monday (26 January) between BTMA President Showkat Aziz Russell and senior officials of domestic textile mills, particularly spinning mill representatives.

The association later shared details of the meeting in a press release issued last night (26 January).

According to mill representatives, domestic spinning mills are facing heavy losses due to an unusually high volume of yarn imports under duty-free bonded warehouse facilities. They alleged that these imports benefit from incentives and subsidies provided by neighbouring countries' governments, creating unequal competition that is pushing local industries towards an existential crisis.

Speaking at the meeting, BTMA President Showkat Aziz Russell said that, in line with previously announced programmes to protect domestic industries, the decision to keep all textile mills closed from 1 February would remain in effect.

He warned that without the immediate withdrawal of existing unfair advantages in yarn imports and the adoption of effective policy measures, the country's textile sector would face severe consequences.

He also noted that yarn imports from India have increased by approximately 137% over the past year compared to the previous year. He said that around 50 spinning mills have already shut down, while at least another 50 are at risk of closure.

As a result, nearly 200,000 workers and employees have lost their jobs, signalling a serious social and economic crisis, according to him.

During the meeting, senior mill officials urged the government to take swift and effective steps to exclude 10-30 count yarn from bonded warehouse facilities, in line with recommendations from the Ministry of Commerce.

Expressing hope for a positive outcome, the BTMA president said the government would take prompt and effective policy decisions to safeguard domestic industries, investments and the large workforce employed in the textile sector.

Jamuna Oil Company, a state-owned firm, saw its net profit fall by 18% in the first half of FY 2025-26, hit by unaccrued interest on fixed deposit receipts (FDRs) held in four banks that have merged into Sammilito Islami Bank.

The company reported a profit of Tk216.81 crore and earnings per share (EPS) of Tk19.63, down from Tk 264 crore and EPS Tk23.92 in the same period last year.

In a disclosure to the stock exchanges, Jamuna Oil said the EPS decline was due to interest on bank deposits with Sammilito Islami Bank for the second quarter not being accrued. Interest accrued in the first quarter was also written back, as it is now presumed that it could not be realised.

Despite the slump in FDR income, Jamuna Oil's earnings from treasury bills and bonds partially offset the decline. The company earned Tk297.17 crore from other income primarily interest on T-bills and T-bonds, dividends, and other sources down from Tk380.35 crore in H1 FY25.

Income from FDRs fell 45.44% to Tk188.79 crore from Tk346.01 crore in the previous fiscal. Treasury bills and bonds, a new investment avenue, generated Tk73 crore, which was not recorded in the previous year.

The company's auditor raised concerns over the recoverability of FDRs in six banks, four of which merged into Sammilito Islami Bank, while two remain independent.

Jamuna Oil has total investments of Tk1,541.08 crore across these banks, including FDRs and SND accounts at First Security Islami Bank, Global Islami Bank, Union Bank, Social Islami Bank, Bangladesh Commerce Bank, and National Bank.

The auditor noted that Jamuna Oil has realised Tk94.17 crore out of Tk106.71 crore from FDRs, with Tk1.25 crore still due as of 30 June 2025.

Interest of Tk58 crore accrued between the last maturity date and the balance sheet date remains uncertain due to liquidity issues. The company has requested encashment from the banks, but responses have been limited.

In FY25, buoyed by FDR income, Jamuna Oil posted a record profit of Tk441 crore and recommended a 180% cash dividend, which will be considered at its annual general meeting on 31 January.

Today (26 January), Jamuna Oil's shares closed at Tk168.40 each on the Dhaka Stock Exchange, down 1.64% from the previous session.

Gold surged to a record high above $5,000 an ounce on Monday, extending a historic rally as investors piled into the safe-haven asset amid rising geopolitical tensions.

Bullion added 64% to its value in 2025, its biggest annual rise since 1979, driven by a mix of safe-haven demand, bets on US rate cuts, robust central-bank buying, de-dollarisation trends and inflows into exchange-traded funds. It is up 18% so far this year.

Here are some ways to invest in gold:

Spot market

Large buyers and institutional investors usually buy gold from big banks. Prices in the spot market are determined by real-time supply and demand dynamics.

London is the most influential hub for the spot market, with the London Bullion Market Association setting standards for gold trading and providing a framework for the over-the-counter market to facilitate trades among banks, dealers and institutions.

China, India, the Middle East and the US are other major gold-trading centres.

Futures market

Investors can also get exposure to gold via futures exchanges, where people buy or sell a particular commodity at a fixed price on a particular date in the future.

COMEX, part of the New York Mercantile Exchange, is the largest gold futures market in terms of trading volumes.

The Shanghai Futures Exchange, China's leading commodities exchange, also offers gold futures contracts. The Tokyo Commodity Exchange, popularly known as TOCOM, is another big player in the Asian gold market.

Exchange-traded products

Exchange-traded products or exchange-traded funds issue securities backed by physical metal, allowing people to gain exposure to gold prices without taking delivery of the metal itself.

Global gold ETFs saw record inflows in 2025, led by North American funds, according to World Gold Council data. Annual inflows surged to $89 billion.

Bars and coins

Retail consumers can buy gold from traders selling bars and coins in shops or online. Gold bars and coins are both effective means of investing in physical gold.

Investors in top consumers China and India have moved more towards purchasing bars and coins as opposed to jewellery amid surging spot prices.

What drives the market?

Investor interest and market sentiment

Rising interest from investment funds in recent years has been a major factor behind bullion's price moves, with sentiment driven by market trends, news and global events fuelling speculative buying or selling of gold.

Foreign exchange rates

Gold is a popular hedge against currency market volatility. It has traditionally moved in the opposite direction to the US dollar, since weakness in the US currency makes dollar-priced gold cheaper for holders of other currencies and vice versa.

Monetary policy and political tensions

The precious metal is widely considered a safe haven during times of uncertainty.

US President Donald Trump's trade tariffs have over the last year sparked a global trade war, rattling currency markets.

Trump's capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro and aggressive statements on acquiring Greenland have added to volatility since the start of 2026.

Global central banks' policy decisions also influence gold's trajectory. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, since it pays no interest.

Central bank gold reserves

Central banks hold gold in their reserves, and demand from this sector has been robust in recent years because of macroeconomic and political uncertainty.

The World Gold Council said in its annual survey in June that more central banks plan to add to their gold reserves within a year despite high prices.

Net central bank purchases in November totalled 45 metric tons, World Gold Council data showed, pushing the figure for the first 11 months of 2025 to 297 tons as emerging market central banks continued their significant gold buying.

China kept adding gold to its reserves, with its holdings totalling 74.15 million troy ounces at the end of December from 74.12 million in the previous month as it extended its buying spree for the 14th month in a row.

Poland's central bank, which held 550 tons of gold at end-2025, aims to lift reserves to 700 tons, Governor Adam Glapinski said this month.

The European Union has raised concerns over Bangladesh's non-tariff barriers in trade, with a significant focus on customs procedures, Commerce Secretary Mahbubur Rahman said today (26 Janaury).

Speaking at an event in Agargaon, Dhaka, marking International Customs Day, he revealed that a recent meeting with an EU delegation highlighted 15 key issues relating to customs processes and daily operations, urging simplification.

"Our import tariffs are among the highest in the world, which they accept legally. But non-tariff barriers are not acceptable," Mahbubur Rahman said.

He added that excessive protectionist measures, such as mandatory 100% luggage scanning at airports, create long queues without meaningful benefits.

Zaidi Sattar, chairman of the Policy Research Institute (PRI), stressed the need for urgent trade policy reforms, noting that reforms delayed over the past 15 years must be implemented within the next three to five years to prevent Bangladesh from lagging behind competitors.

He highlighted that import duties currently raise $11 billion annually and should be reduced to 1% of GDP to promote trade and job creation.

Secretary Mahbubur Rahman told The Business Standard, "Currently, import tax collection is 2.5% of GDP. But it should not exceed 1%."

Mubinul Kabir, member of the Customs Policy wing, said programmes like the Authorised Economic Operator (AEO) and pre-arrival processing remain underutilised. "We are considering relaxing the conditions for AEO," he added.

NBR Chairman Abdur Rahman Khan acknowledged complaints regarding inconsistent service delivery. "The same product, imported from the same country on the same day, should not be assessed differently by two officers," he said.

Regarding the duty-free import of raw materials under bond licenses, he said, "Many argue that without the bond facility, the country's industrialisation would have mirrored China's progress."

Nine companies get AEO recognition

At the event, nine companies were recognised as Authorised Economic Operators. They are: Hatil Complex Limited, Asia Paints (Bangladesh) Limited, BRB Cables Industries Limited, Footsteps Bangladesh Limited, Omera Cylinder Limited, Jihan Footwear, Shoeniverse Footwear, Cutting Edge Industries Limited, and MBM Garments Limited.

AEO-certified firms can move consignments directly from ports to their warehouses without physical inspection, with documents verified in advance. Customs officers may inspect the warehouse if needed.

The facility, often called the "VIP pass of trade," is granted to companies with strong compliance records. Currently, fewer than 20 companies hold AEO recognition in Bangladesh.

Seventeen NBR officers received the Certificate of Merit from the World Customs Organisation for their service contributions.

Palli Karma-Sahayak Foundation (PKSF) has signed five separate credit guarantee agreements with Jamuna Bank, Commercial Bank of Ceylon, Trust Bank, Mercantile Bank and NCC Bank under its Credit Enhancement Scheme (CES).

Under the agreements, the banks will be able to extend a total of Tk1,000 crore in guaranteed loans to PKSF's partner organisations, according to a press release.

The signing ceremony took place today (26 January) at PKSF Bhaban-1 in Agargaon, Dhaka.

PKSF Managing Director Md Fazlul Kader signed the agreements on behalf of the foundation. The agreements were signed on behalf of the banks by Ahsan Zaman Chowdhury, managing director and CEO of Trust Bank PLC; Haily Algewatte, deputy CEO and chief operating officer of Commercial Bank of Ceylon PLC; Mohammad Jahangir Alam, deputy managing director of Jamuna Bank PLC; Md Habibur Rahman, deputy managing director of NCC Bank PLC; and Md Zakir Hossain, deputy managing director of Mercantile Bank PLC.

PKSF Deputy Managing Directors Md Mashiar Rahman, Fazle Rabbi Sadeque Ahmed and Md Hasan Khaled were also present at the event.

Speaking on the occasion, Md Fazlul Kader said PKSF is working to transform low-income people into entrepreneurs and that the Credit Enhancement Scheme has been introduced to formally engage commercial banks in this process.

Under the scheme, PKSF's partner organisations will receive loans from banks and disburse them to eligible clients at the field level, while PKSF will provide guarantees to mitigate credit risk at the bank level, he added.

PKSF is implementing the CES with financial and technical support from the Asian Development Bank (ADB) to promote inclusive economic growth through the expansion and productivity enhancement of the microenterprise sector.

Through the scheme, PKSF shares lending risks by providing guarantees to banks and financial institutions that extend loans to its partner organisations.

Earlier, on 24 May 2025, PKSF launched the country's first Credit Enhancement Scheme and on the same day signed credit guarantee agreements worth Tk3,150 crore with BRAC Bank, City Bank, Prime Bank, Mutual Trust Bank, Southeast Bank and The UAE-Bangladesh Investment Company Limited (UBICO).

The United States is in talks with Chevron, other crude producers, and major oilfield service providers about a plan to quickly raise Venezuela's crude production, Bloomberg News reported on Saturday, citing senior administration officials.

Officials have discussed deploying SLB, Halliburton and Baker Hughes to repair and replace outdated equipment, and refresh older drilling sites, the report said.

Reuters could not immediately verify the report. The White House, Chevron, SLB, Baker Hughes and Halliburton did not immediately respond to Reuters' requests for comment.

With limited investment, Venezuela could boost production by several hundred thousand barrels over the short term, the report said, adding that modern US equipment and techniques could revitalise existing wells and bring new production online within months.

US President Donald Trump said on Friday that US oil companies will soon start drilling for oil in Venezuela. Trump has been clear about his desire to boost oil production in Venezuela following the capture of the country's leader, Nicolas Maduro.

The European Union and Vietnam will elevate ties during a visit to Hanoi by the European Council President Antonio Costa on Thursday, an EU official said, as both sides seek to expand international partnerships amid disruptions from US tariffs.

The visit comes on the heels of To Lam's re-appointment as Vietnam's top official, potentially making Costa the first leader of a major power to meet Lam since the ruling Communist Party on Friday appointed him for a new term as general secretary.

The elevation of ties to Vietnam's highest level has been planned for months and was delayed largely because of schedule complications, the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

It would place the EU on the same tier as China, the US and Russia among others, further expanding Vietnam's advanced partnerships, in line with the country's strategy of balancing big powers.

The European Council declined to comment. Vietnam's government did not respond to a request for comment.

These upgrades are largely symbolic, as they merely entail more frequent high-level meetings and usually no binding agreements.

Vietnam's relations with the United States worsened last year after the Trump administration imposed tariffs, despite the upgrade of bilateral ties inked by former president Joe Biden during a visit to Hanoi in late 2023.

More cooperation on tech, minerals

The upgrade with the EU is expected to generate more cooperation in multiple fields, including research, technology, energy and critical minerals, according to a draft joint statement, the official said. Vietnam has significant but often little exploited deposits of rare earths, gallium and tungsten.

The Southeast Asian trade-reliant nation is a major link in global supply chains, especially for electronics, clothing and footwear. It has a string of free trade agreements with multiple partners, including with the European Union.

The EU has repeatedly criticised Vietnam's implementation of the free trade agreement, which has boosted Vietnam's surplus with the 27-nation bloc since it came into force in 2020. The EU deficit with Hanoi stood at 42.5 billion euros ($50.26 billion) in 2024.

EU officials accuse Hanoi of hampering EU imports with multiple non-tariff barriers, but Brussels has so far taken limited action to address the situation.

Also, facing tariffs from the United States, the EU has prioritised improving ties with economic partners and expanding trade agreements, including recently with South American nations of the Mercosur bloc.

Costa will visit India before Vietnam, where together with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, he intends to hold trade talks with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, according to a schedule published by the EU Council.

Gold prices in Bangladesh have surged once again, with the Bangladesh Jewellers Association (Bajus) setting a new all-time high for the precious metal.

According to a notification issued tonight (25 January), Bajus increased the price of 22-carat gold by Tk1,574 per bhori, fixing it at Tk2,57,191 — the highest ever in the country's history.

The new rates will come into effect from tomorrow.

Bajus said the decision was taken following a rise in the price of pure gold (tejabi gold) in the local market, considering the overall market situation.

Under the revised prices, 21-carat gold will be sold at Tk2,45,527 per bhori, 18-carat gold at Tk2,10,419 per bhori, while gold under the traditional method will cost Tk1,72,919 per bhori.

In addition to the selling price, buyers will have to pay a mandatory 5% VAT set by the government and a minimum 6% making charge fixed by Bajus. However, the making charge may vary depending on the design and quality of jewellery.

Bajus last adjusted gold prices on 23 January, when the price of 22-carat gold was raised by Tk6,299 to Tk2,55,617 per bhori.

With the latest revision, gold prices have been adjusted 13 times in the current month alone — increased on 10 occasions and reduced three times.

Alongside gold, silver prices have also been increased. Bajus raised the price of 22-carat silver by Tk350 per bhori, fixing it at Tk7,232, marking the highest silver price in the country's history.

According to the new rates, 21-carat silver will cost Tk6,940 per bhori, 18-carat silver Tk5,949 per bhori, and silver under the traditional method Tk4,432 per bhori.

So far this year, silver prices have been adjusted eight times, with increases on six occasions and decreases twice.

Planning Adviser Dr Wahiduddin Mahmud today (25 January) said the government is moving away from financing large-scale development projects through foreign loans and stressed the need for avoiding a 'debt trap'.

"We do not want to take loans for big projects unnecessarily. Institutions like the World Bank often come with many project proposals. If some are genuinely high priority, we may consider them. But these issues are now being discussed and assessed very carefully," he told reporters after an ECNEC meeting.

The adviser said the government will accept loan-funded projects only if they are of critical national priority and cannot be financed or implemented with domestic resources or expertise. He noted that some initiatives, such as pollution monitoring, do not justify large loans or foreign consultants.

"Measuring pollution is not that difficult. The instruments involved are not extraordinarily complex. There is no need to take large foreign loans for such purposes," he said.

He added that as Bangladesh prepares for LDC graduation, interest rates on foreign loans are rising, making them more expensive and underscored the importance of relying on domestic capacity.

The adviser also warned against attractive but unnecessary projects offered by multilateral lenders like the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank (ADB).

"We will take only those loan projects that are truly necessary, where foreign support is genuinely required. Everything else should be done with our own resources, even if on a smaller scale," he said. He also highlighted the government's intention to reduce long-standing dependence on loans in social sectors, including education.

"There is no point in becoming trapped in a vicious cycle of debt. We want to move away from heavy reliance on loans in all sectors," he added.

The government plans to gradually phase out the long-standing excise duty in the country, citing the need to balance revenue considerations, National Board of Revenue (NBR) Chairman Abdur Rahman Khan said today (25 January).

Speaking at a press conference at NBR headquarters in Dhaka, on the eve of International Customs Day, the NBR chief said that the government had taken a step in this direction by withdrawing excise duty on bank deposits up to Tk300,000 last year.

"We have sent a signal that we will gradually move away from this (excise duty)," he said, adding that a complete removal at once is not feasible due to potential revenue shortfalls.

Currently, excise duty is imposed on bank deposits and airfares. Deposits up to Tk300,000 are exempt, while higher amounts are taxed at different slabs. Airfares are also taxed at varying rates for domestic and international passengers. NBR sources estimate that the duty generates around Tk6,000 crore annually.

NBR extends income tax return deadline to 31 January

Addressing concerns about revenue replacement, a senior NBR official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the withdrawal would be phased out gradually, with revenue to be offset by other sectors, including tobacco.

"We expect to collect an additional Tk10,000 crore from the tobacco sector this fiscal year due to policy measures," the NBR chairman said.

The official also questioned the fairness of excise duty on bank deposits, arguing that it distorts tax equity. "Even if someone takes a loan, excise duty is deducted simply because the money is deposited in a bank. Besides this, there is VAT on services and other taxes. This is unjustified," he said. Regarding airfares, he indicated that VAT could replace excise duty if it is withdrawn.

Abdur Rahman Khan further highlighted government efforts to reduce import duties, noting that a draft plan has already been submitted.

He said several initiatives have improved the ease of doing business, including releasing 90% of imported consignments from ports within a day, though traders still raise concerns over product valuation at the import stage.

Meanwhile, the NBR chief hinted at a possible further extension of the deadline for individual income tax return filings, which is currently set to expire on 31 January.

At the same event, the chairman said that the board might consider more time if a significant number of registered taxpayers fail to submit their returns by the current cutoff.

However, he clarified that a formal decision has not yet been made.

According to NBR data, about 4.7 million individuals registered to file tax returns this year, with 3.4 million already submitted. This leaves approximately 1.3 million yet to file within the remaining six days. The original deadline of 30 November had already been extended twice, giving taxpayers a total of two additional months.

Bangladesh's overall inflation rate edged up further in December, driven mainly by a faster rise in food prices, according to the Economic Update & Outlook (January 2026) released today (25 January) by the General Economics Division (GED) of the Planning Commission.

General inflation increased to 8.49% in December, up from 8.29% in November, reflecting renewed upward pressure from the food basket amid persistently high non-food inflation.

Food inflation rose to 7.71% in December from 7.36% a month earlier, while non-food inflation remained elevated at 9.13%, indicating continued cost pressures beyond food items.

The GED report says the acceleration in food inflation during the month was largely led by higher prices of fish and other protein items, although rice inflation continued its downward trend across all categories, offering some relief to consumers.

Despite inflationary pressures, the report highlighted several positive developments in the broader economy. External sector stability improved, supported by export recovery, strong remittance inflows and resilient import demand.

At the same time, bank deposits maintained double-digit growth, while private sector credit growth showed a modest uptick in November, according to the report.

On the fiscal front, the government has finalised the FY2025–26 Annual Development Programme (ADP) in line with budget priorities, aiming to support growth and social development.

The report also highlights the launch of the SDG village piloting initiative by the GED to advance localisation of the Sustainable Development Goals.

As part of the pilot phase, three villages – Telikhali in Khulna, Sonar Para in Kurigram and Mitingachori in Rangamati – have been selected to implement an integrated, village-level development framework.

The initiative will involve baseline surveys, need-based interventions, resource mobilisation, and a monitoring and evaluation framework, with lessons expected to inform scaling up in other lagging regions.

The initiative aims to operationalise national SDG priorities at the grassroots level by addressing multidimensional development gaps in a coordinated and inclusive manner.

According to the GED report, the SDG village piloting initiative will be implemented through baseline surveys, need-based interventions, resource mobilisation, and a monitoring and evaluation framework.

The lessons and experiences from the pilot villages are expected to scale up sustainable development programmes in other villages and lagging regions of the country.

The indices of Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) experienced correction for the third consecutive session yesterday as the cautious investors book profit as brief gain on the trading floor amid lingering political uncertainty ahead of the February election.

The benchmark DSEX index shed 27 points to close at 5,072. The blue-chip DS30 index fell 15 points to 1,948, while the Shariah-based DSES index declined 8 points to end at 1,018.

Market turnover edged down by 1.68% to Tk527 crore, compared to Tk536 crore in the previous session. Of the 392 issues traded, 107 advanced, 225 declined and 60 remained unchanged.

Market insiders said the stock market is hovering near the bottom as political uncertainty continues to weigh on investor confidence. In this environment, informed investors are selectively buying fundamentally strong stocks but opting for small, short-term gains rather than waiting for sizeable returns. This trend has led to frequent corrections after brief upward movements.

Despite the current volatility, participants are expecting a positive trend either before or after the election.

Over the past year, political uncertainty and several decisions taken by the market regulator were not well received by investors. Many investors exited the market, while a large portion of institutional and high-net-worth investors remained largely inactive. This situation pushed down the prices of even fundamentally strong stocks.

Analysts said political uncertainty remains the single most critical factor influencing market sentiment. Although expectations are that easing uncertainty could lead to a more positive market direction, the lack of full clarity has kept institutional and large investors cautious, limiting trading volumes.

They added that ensuring policy stability and restoring investor confidence could unlock strong recovery potential for the capital market in the coming period.

All major large-cap sectors closed in negative territory yesterday. The Food & Allied sector recorded the highest decline, losing 1.01%, followed by NBFIs with a drop of 0.95%. The Engineering sector fell by 0.67%, while Pharmaceuticals declined 0.62%. The Fuel & Power sector shed 0.49%, Telecommunication slipped 0.39%, and the Banking sector posted the lowest loss among large caps at 0.25%. Meanwhile, block trades accounted for 1.9% of the total market turnover for the day.

The Chittagong Stock Exchange (CSE) also closed lower, with the CSCX index dropping 8 points to 8,821, and the CASPI index decreasing 13 points to close at 14,247 reflecting negative sentiment across both major bourses.

BSRM Steel reported that its revenue jumped by 47% year-on-year to reach at Tk5,976 crore in the July-December of FY26.

According to the company's price sensitive statement filed on the Dhaka Stock Exchange today (25 January), its net profit rose by 10% to Tk193 crore during the first half of FY26, compared to the previous year during the same period.

At the end of first half, its earnings per share stood at Tk5.14.

Meanwhile, during the second quarter (October-December) its revenue grew by 31% to Tk3,339 crore and the net profit rose by 6% to Tk95 crore.

The General Economics Division (GED) has projected a delicate balance between a recovering growth trajectory and persistent structural hurdles, saying the economy could grow at 5.0 per cent in the current calendar year.

According to the January 2026 Economic Update and Outlook released on Sunday by the GED under the Planning Commission, the economy will expand by 5.0 per cent in 2026.

The report highlights a "fragile but resilient" recovery as the country navigates a complex democratic transition and prepares for its graduation from the Least Developed Country (LDC) category.

It notes a significant rebound in economic activities compared to the previous fiscal year.

Provisional data for the first quarter of FY26 shows real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rising to 4.50 per cent, a sharp increase from the 2.58 per cent recorded in the same period last year.

The GED said the most pressing concern remained the stubbornly high inflation, which was currently outpacing wage growth and squeezing household purchasing power.

While price inflation increased by 0.20 percentage points last month, wage inflation only grew by 0.03 percentage points to 8.07 per cent, indicating that real income was falling behind.

On a positive note, the external sector showed signs of stabilisation.

Gross foreign exchange reserves strengthened to $33.19 billion in December 2025.

Remittance inflows hit a robust $3.22 billion that month, aided by a more favourable exchange rate and regulatory incentives.

Earnings stabilised at roughly $4.0 billion per month, with the readymade garment (RMG) sector continuing to provide the bulk share of foreign currency.

The GED cautioned that despite the 5.0 per cent growth outlook, several risks could derail the recovery.

"The economy will require strong governance, policy consistency, and sustained investment in skills to diversify beyond the garment sector. Uncertainty among economic elites and institutional weaknesses remains a significant risk during this transition," the report said.

The Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) has rejected a 6% stock dividend proposal announced by Kay & Que (Bangladesh) for the financial year that ended in June 2025.

On 10 October last year, the engineering sector firm recommended a 4% cash and 6% stock dividend for its shareholders for FY25. The stock dividend component was subject to the approval by the BSEC.

According to its annual disclosure, the company had reported 1,316% growth in its earnings per share (EPS) for FY25, reaching Tk9.49 from Tk0.67 in the previous fiscal year.

The firm highlighted strong profitability growth in FY25, along with continued improvement in the first quarter of the current fiscal year. During the first quarter, its EPS rose 137% to Tk2.75, compared with Tk1.15 in the same period of the prior year, driven by higher sales turnover.

Today, Kay & Que's shares closed at Tk367.10 each, which was 0.43% lower than the previous trading sessions.

The company has recently made an "A2P Aggregator Agreement" with Robi Axiata, under which KAY & QUE will act as an A2P (Application-to-Person) Aggregator for Robi Axiata, providing services related to the delivery of SMS and notifications from various applications and digital platforms to end users. The company expects this partnership to positively influence its future revenue growth.