Bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market value, was down by 6.53 percent at $78,719.63 at ​12:48 p.m. ET (1748 GMT) on Saturday, continuing its decline from the ‌previous session.

On Friday, bitcoin fell to as low as $81,104, the lowest since November 21, while the US dollar gained after former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh was selected as the next Fed chair. Some investors and ‌traders are concerned he might tighten up on cash in the ​financial system.

Warsh has called for regime change at the central bank and wants, among other things, a smaller Fed balance sheet.

Bitcoin and other ‍cryptocurrencies have been regarded as beneficiaries of a large balance sheet, ‍having tended to rally while the Fed greased money markets with liquidity - a support for ‌speculative ‌assets.

Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management in Menomonee Falls, Wisconsin, said the Fed’s “bloated ‍balance sheet combined with heavy-handed bank regulation” had kept liquidity trapped on Wall Street instead ‌of ‌flowing to Main Street, helping fuel bubbles in assets such as bonds, crypto, metals and meme stocks.

Ether also fell 11.76 percent to $2,387.77 on Saturday afternoon. Cryptocurrencies have been struggling for direction since tumbling last year, having been left behind by big rallies in gold and stocks.

“Sometimes these ​price adjustments feed on themselves,” Jacobsen said, adding that Friday’s abrupt drop had reminded people of the risks. He said it was “possible, if not likely, that we see more ‍selling over the next few days.”

Cryptos are having a rough time in what was once hoped to be a golden era of flows and friendly regulation under President ​Donald Trump. Market-leading bitcoin has lost a third ‍of its value since striking record highs in October last year.

The weakening dollar, which hit a four-year low last week against major global currencies amid rising tensions between the US and Europe over Greenland, is expected to help Bangladesh contain inflation and ease its debt servicing burden, giving the central bank more flexibility in monetary policy.

However, it could dampen export earnings and remittance values unless gains in competitiveness and productivity offset the impact, according to market insiders.

The dollar's downturn is expected to appreciate the taka, as the euro and pound were among currencies that surged against the greenback this month. Eleven of the 19 emerging market currencies tracked by Oxford Economics also gained more than 1%.

Bangladesh Bank has been buying dollars at over Tk122 from the market for the past six months to contain volatility and support remitters and exporters, indicating that appreciation pressure is already present.

Against this backdrop, the central bank is expected to maintain a tight monetary stance for the second half of FY26, with the policy rate likely to remain unchanged at 10% when the monetary policy statement is announced next week.

A further fall in the global dollar price would help Bangladesh Bank reap the benefits of lower import costs, which would ease inflationary pressure and narrow the trade deficit, market insiders said.

Inflation has already begun to ease, falling to single digits from double digits, while the external balance remained comfortable. The financial account recorded a surplus of more than $1.2 billion during July-November of FY26, according to central bank data.

'Mixed but broadly supportive effects'

The US Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates amid mounting pressure from Donald Trump, a move that could weaken the dollar further as investors chase higher returns outside US Treasuries.

Explaining the impact on Bangladesh, a former Fed official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told The Business Standard that a weaker dollar would have mixed but broadly supportive effects on the economy.

"On the positive side, Bangladesh's large stock of dollar-denominated external debt, both public and private, would become cheaper to service in local-currency terms, easing fiscal pressure and balance-sheet stress," the official said.

Central bank data show total external debt stood at $113.20 billion at the end of FY25. The ratio of foreign exchange reserves to total debt rose to 23.60% from 20.80% a year earlier.

"Import costs for fuel, fertiliser, food grains, and capital machinery would also decline, helping contain inflation and narrow the trade deficit. For a country like Bangladesh, where imported inputs play a major role in domestic price formation, a softer dollar can translate relatively quickly into lower cost-push inflation, giving the central bank more flexibility in monetary policy," said the Fed official.

On the downside, export and remittance channels are more complex. Garment exports are largely dollar-invoiced, meaning a weaker dollar could reduce taka earnings unless higher volumes or price adjustments compensate, he said.

"Competitiveness will depend on peer currencies," added the official. "If the euro, pound or major Asian currencies strengthen, Bangladesh could gain market share. If competitor currencies weaken more sharply, export margins may come under pressure."

Remittances, mostly earned in dollars, could also convert into fewer taka, potentially weighing on household consumption, he explained.

"Overall, a weaker dollar would likely ease short-term macroeconomic pressures for Bangladesh, but longer-term growth will still depend on productivity gains, export diversification and careful exchange rate management," said the official.

'Overall gains outweigh losses'

Echoing this view, Md Ezazul Islam, director general of the Bangladesh Institute of Bank Management, said Bangladesh would gain more than it would lose from a weaker dollar.

He said the government would need to increase imports from the US as part of efforts to reduce tariffs, and a softer dollar would lower costs, offering significant relief.

In November last year, a consortium of Bangladesh's top three soy crushing companies – Meghna Group, City Group and Delta Agro – committed to buying $1 billion worth of US soybeans over the following 12 months.

Ezazul said the taka could strengthen further, allowing the central bank to buy more dollars and rebuild reserves.

Reserves rebuild amid stable dollar rate

Bangladesh Bank Governor Ahsan H Mansur recently told The Business Standard that reserves could reach $35 billion to $36 billion by June next year, based on official projections.

The central bank has already rebuilt more than $8 billion in reserves, mainly through market purchases at over Tk122, taking total reserves to $28 billion under IMF calculations.

Ezazul, also a former executive director of Bangladesh Bank, said the dollar rate had remained stable at Tk122.30 despite large-scale purchases, largely due to global dollar weakness.

"This signals that the central bank could gain naturally from further dollar softening in the coming months," he said. He added that exporters could also benefit, as Europe remains Bangladesh's largest export market and the euro has already strengthened against the dollar.

Lower import costs would help offset exporters' currency losses from a stronger taka, he said, although Bangladesh Bank may face income losses as much of its reserves are invested in US Treasuries.

On monetary policy, Ezazul said the central bank's tight stance was appropriate, as inflation would ease naturally if global prices fell amid a weaker dollar. "This is not the right time to cut the policy rate due to political uncertainty," he added.

The main reason for restoring the lottery system in primary share allocation is to boost turnover in the secondary market against the backdrop of a persistent investor exodus.

The IPO lottery system was removed in April 2021 after it was repeatedly accused of depriving retail investors of IPO shares. The Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) replaced it with the pro-rata allotment system, which enabled share allocation to every valid applicant in proportion to the quantities applied for.

"We have observed that IPO shares were mostly exhausted by high net worth individuals [under the pro-rata system]. They have more money. They applied for more shares and they got more," said BSEC spokesperson Abul Kalam.

According to the market watchdog, the very objective behind removing the lottery system could not be achieved. Instead, enthusiasm surrounding new listings faded as retail investors received only nominal numbers of shares.

The BSEC brought back the lottery system even though the taskforce assigned to suggest capital market reforms made no recommendation on IPO share distribution.

"Out of 200 public opinions that we received [on the revised rules], 171 voted for the lottery system," said Kalam.

"We did not recommend bringing back the lottery system in IPO," said Md Moniruzzaman, managing director and CEO of Prime Bank Securities Ltd, adding that IPO hunters might have pushed for the return of the system.

"They might have given votes in the public opinion. It is true the lottery system encouraged participation with the hope for higher profits," said Moniruzzaman, who was in a focus group responsible for assisting the taskforce.

Under the pro-rata system, the IPO share pool was divided into different investor categories with predefined quotas for each.

The main categories were general investors (including retail and local individuals), non-resident Bangladeshis (NRBs), and eligible investors (institutional or qualified investors). The total number of shares allocated to each category was fixed as a proportion of the IPO size.

That meant if the eligible or institutional portion was oversubscribed, each applicant in this segment received shares in proportion to the amount applied for.

"The pro-rata system prefers big investors," said Kalam.

Another reason for removing the lottery system earlier was to curb investors' speculative behaviour.

The lottery-based IPO process encouraged short-term speculation, with investors applying mainly to gain quick listing profits rather than long-term investment returns.

However, the BSEC took into consideration the steep decline in the number of BO accounts since the repeal of the lottery system.

"There were nearly 3 million BO accounts in the market when the lottery system was in place. Now it has fallen to 1.6 million. Market turnover has also declined. We believe the reintroduction of the lottery system will bring back the festive mood [around listings] and increase turnover," said the BSEC spokesperson.

When retail investors make profits from IPO shares, they reinvest a portion of those profits in the secondary market, Kalam added.

Lottery-driven IPOs used to witness excessive oversubscription-sometimes hundreds of times the required amount-creating operational and settlement pressure in the IPO process.

According to Kalam, this will not happen now as BO account opening has become more tightly regulated. Investors must have a bank account and a bank certificate in their own name before opening a BO account. Opening a bank account requires a national ID card.

"Fake accounts can no longer be used to apply for IPO shares," said the BSEC spokesperson.

The regulator has also eliminated, under the revised IPO rules, the minimum requirement of Tk 50,000 investment in the secondary market for each BO account.

"We have brought back the lottery system to ensure more shares for general investors. We believe this will increase investor participation in the market," Kalam added.

Chief Adviser Prof Muhammad Yunus Sunday directed opening free-trade agreement (FTA) negotiations with the European Union forthwith to safeguard Bangladesh's trade preferences in its largest export market as the current duty-free access is set to expire.

The head of interim government stressed the urgency during a courtesy call by Nuria Lopez, Chairperson of the European Chamber of Commerce in Bangladesh (EuroCham), at the state guesthouse Jamuna in Dhaka.

Michael Miller, European Union's Ambassador in Bangladesh, took part in the meeting and discussion.

They discussed the need to accelerate European investment in Bangladesh, how to ensure smooth trade relations between Bangladesh and the EU, and the need for further reforms to improve the country's business climate.

They also discussed the upcoming elections and the deployment of international observers to monitor the polls.

Professor Yunus mentions that the Interim Government has recently concluded an Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) with Japan, paving the way for duty-free access for more than 7,300 Bangladeshi products to the world's fourth-largest economy.

Bangladesh is preparing to hold similar negotiations with other countries, including the European Union, to ensure continued duty-free access for its products -- particularly readymade garments -- to the EU market for the foreseeable future, he told the EU side.

"The EPA with Japan has opened doors for us. It gives renewed hope for our exports. We definitely hope to sign an FTA with the EU to expand our market," the Chief Adviser said.

The EuroCham chairperson, Nuria Lopez, said Bangladesh needs to begin FTA negotiations urgently, as the country may lose its existing trade preferences in the EU -- its largest export destination -- after graduating from least-developed country (LDC) status.

She notes that an FTA would attract more European investment to Bangladesh, create jobs, and boost exports to advanced Western markets.

Lopez points out that India is signing an FTA with the EU, while Vietnam already has such an agreement, allowing both middle-income countries preferential access to the European market.

"We are advocating for an FTA. I will go to Europe to encourage private companies to invest in Bangladesh," she told the meet.

EU Ambassador Michael Miller said that the commercial relationship with Bangladesh would evolve after graduation but not before 2029.

He underlines EU's strong interest in bringing European investment and technology to Bangladesh -- an important market with a population of nearly 200 million. He also expresses EU readiness to organise an EU-Bangladesh Business Forum in 2026.

"We are looking for early political signals that EU companies will be encouraged to come and will enjoy a level playing field," he said during the

trade discussion.

The Chief Adviser also emphasised the relocation of factories to Bangladesh, noting that European firms can take advantage of the country's large pool of skilled labour at competitive costs.

"We are building a free-trade zone. Our aim is to turn Bangladesh into a manufacturing hub for global businesses. We want more European investment in Bangladesh," he told the EU side.

Professor Yunus expressed satisfaction over the EU decision to deploy a large contingent of election observers to Bangladesh for the upcoming general election and referendum.

"It is important that EU election observers are here. It is a huge vote of confidence in revitalising our democracy," he said, adding that the overall picture of the election campaign is "very positive."

Lamiya Morshed, SDG Coordinator and Senior Secretary of the government, was also present at the meeting.

Merchandise exports earned Bangladesh US$48.28 billion in the last fiscal year (2024-25) and the EU accounted for 44.29 per cent or $19.71 billion.

Bangladesh's exports are destined to face up to 12-percent duty after LDC graduation and its transition period till 2029.

Despite political and economic uncertainty, most listed pharmaceutical companies reported strong revenue and profit growth in the October–December quarter and the first half of the fiscal year.

Analysts said higher sales, lower costs, easing finance expenses, efficient working capital management, stable demand, steady exchange rates, and operational efficiency drove the improved performance.

Renata PLC, one of the country's leading drug manufacturers, reported 25% year-on-year profit growth in the first half of the fiscal year. Consolidated profit rose to Tk156.26 crore in July–December from Tk125.08 crore a year earlier, while EPS increased to Tk13.58 from Tk10.83. Consolidated revenue grew 6.56% to Tk2,223.84 crore.

Pharmaceutical product revenue, accounting for 80.7% of total revenue, rose 10% year-on-year, driven entirely by higher sales volumes, while the animal health segment remained flat. Export revenue, including subsidiary income, declined 10.1%, and contract manufacturing revenue fell 28.4%.

Export income rose 8.2% in the first quarter of FY26 but dropped 23.4% in the second quarter after export-bound inventory was damaged in a fire at Dhaka airport on October 19, 2025, leading to deferred orders. Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortisation (EBITDA) increased 20.6% due to operational efficiency, while financing costs fell 7.3% following capital restructuring.

Square Pharmaceuticals, the country's largest drug maker, also posted strong growth. In the first half of the fiscal year, consolidated revenue rose 15% year-on-year to Tk4,338 crore, while net profit increased 16% to Tk1,467 crore, with EPS reaching Tk16.56. In the October–December quarter alone, revenue grew 9% to Tk2,179 crore and net profit rose 10% to Tk727 crore, reflecting sustained domestic demand despite rising sector-wide costs.

The results include contributions from foreign subsidiary Square Pharmaceuticals Kenya EPZ Ltd, local subsidiary Square Lifesciences Ltd, and associate companies Square Textiles, Square Fashions, and Square Hospitals, underscoring the group's diversified operations.

Advanced Chemical Industries (ACI) reported an 18% year-on-year increase in consolidated revenue to Tk7,794 crore in the first half of the fiscal year, up from Tk6,619 crore a year earlier. The company posted a consolidated net profit of Tk30 crore, reversing a net loss of Tk64 crore in the same period last year.

ACI said gross profit growth outpaced operating expenses due to strong performance across key segments, though borrowing costs rose amid higher interest rates and increased funding needs for working capital and strategic investments.

Navana Pharmaceuticals recorded a sharp turnaround in the October-December quarter, driven by higher sales, improved margins, lower finance costs, and stronger operating cash flows. Diluted EPS rose 65% year-on-year to Tk1.65 from Tk1.

The ACME Laboratories posted 15.75% year-on-year revenue growth in the October–December quarter, with EPS rising to Tk3.10 from Tk2.86. For the July-December period, EPS increased to Tk6.11 from Tk5.47.

Beacon Pharmaceuticals reported a 29.32% increase in earnings in the October–December quarter, while six-month EPS rose to Tk4.73 from Tk3.47 a year earlier.

Bangladesh's leading textile companies reported a noticeable slowdown in business during the October–December quarter of FY26, as falling yarn prices, weak global demand and rising production costs combined to erode both revenue and profitability across the sector.

Financial statements show that most giant spinners and textile manufacturers posted year-on-year declines in revenue during the quarter. Malek Spinning's revenue fell 6% to Tk673 crore, while Square Textiles saw a sharper 14% drop to Tk580 crore. Envoy Textiles' turnover declined by 10% to Tk412 crore, Shasha Denims' revenue slipped 4% to Tk328 crore, Matin Spinning recorded a 2% fall to Tk215 crore, and Fareast Knitting's revenue dropped 7% to Tk201 crore.

The pressure on the top line was reflected more severely in profits, highlighting how declining yarn prices compressed margins yarn. Malek Spinning's profit dropped 37% to Tk31.85 crore, while Square Textiles suffered one of the steepest falls, with profit plunging 93% to Tk2.77 crore. Shasha Denims' profit declined 65% to Tk3.95 crore, Matin Spinning's fell 36% to Tk9.91 crore, and Fareast Knitting saw profit collapse by 99% to just Tk0.10 crore. Envoy Textiles stood out as an exception, posting a marginal 1% increase in profit to Tk35 crore despite lower revenue.

Company disclosures indicate that the sharp fall in yarn prices was a key driver behind the weaker performance. Square Textiles said its net profit declined significantly due to a notable drop in yarn prices alongside higher finance costs. With selling prices falling faster than input costs, mills struggled to protect their margins even when production volumes remained stable.

Malek Spinning also cited margin pressure in its quarterly statement, noting that the cost of goods sold rose in the second quarter as sales prices declined compared to raw material prices, while factory overheads increased. The company added that export demand weakened during the period, contributing to lower sales and gross profit, which ultimately dragged down net earnings.

Envoy Textiles painted a mixed picture. While its fabric exports increased by 12% during the quarter, cotton yarn exports plunged by 65%, weighing on overall revenue. Speaking to The Business Standard, company secretary Saiful Islam Chowdhury said the firm has gradually shifted away from exporting yarn as more output is consumed internally. Yarn exports, which once accounted for around 40% of total production, have now fallen to about 20%, reflecting changes in business strategy amid volatile prices.

Shasha Denims attributed its profit decline mainly to a sharp rise in the cost of goods sold combined with lower selling prices, which significantly compressed gross margins. The company said earnings were partially supported by consistent profit contributions from associate companies, preventing an even steeper fall in net profit.

Matin Spinning's results also underscored the impact of weaker yarn prices. The company said revenue declined despite higher sales volume because the average selling price per kilogram dropped from $3.68 to $3.47. Although cost efficiencies helped improve its gross profit margin, the lower price environment still weighed on overall performance.

Industry insiders say the challenges facing textile mills go beyond price fluctuations. Production costs have risen by around 30% over the past two years due to higher gas prices, wage hikes and irregular gas supply, making it difficult for mills to compete with imported yarn. According to data from the National Board of Revenue, cotton yarn imports surged 39% in 2024 to $2.28 billion, while fabric imports by knitwear factories jumped 38% to $2.59 billion, intensifying competition for local producers.

Mill owners also point to reduced government incentives for using local yarn, with cash incentives cut sharply and long delays in disbursement further discouraging garment exporters from sourcing domestically. At the same time, higher gas tariffs, stricter bank loan conditions and allegations of illegal yarn imports have added to the sector's woes.

While the government is considering higher tariffs on yarn imports to protect local spinners, industry leaders warn that without addressing structural cost pressures and restoring competitiveness, falling yarn prices will continue to squeeze revenues and profits in the months ahead.

In the first three months of the 2025–26 fiscal year, 35.33% – or Tk31,800 crore – of the government's operating expenditure was spent on servicing debt interest.

This was the single largest item of spending, covering interest payments on both domestic and external debt. Notably, interest payments also account for the largest allocation within the operating budget.

For the current fiscal year, the government has adopted a budget of Tk7.9 lakh crore in total expenditure, of which Tk5.4 lakh crore has been allocated to the operating budget. Of this operating budget, 22% – or Tk1.22 lakh crore – has been earmarked for interest payments, including Tk1 lakh crore for domestic debt interest and Tk22,000 crore for foreign debt interest.

These figures were highlighted in the Government Finance Statistics report for the first three months (July to September) of the 2025–26 fiscal year, published by the Office of the Comptroller General of Accounts.

According to the report, the government spent a total of Tk90,000 crore during the first three months. Of this, Tk16,900 crore was spent on salaries, allowances and pensions for government employees. In addition, Tk5,300 crore was spent on goods and services, Tk15,800 crore on subsidies, Tk8,400 crore on grants, and Tk8,700 crore on social safety net programmes. Expenditure in other sectors amounted to Tk3,100 crore. The government also spent Tk12,600 crore on the acquisition of non-financial assets.

Meanwhile, data from the Implementation Monitoring and Evaluation Division (IMED) of the Planning Commission show that development expenditure during the first three months of the fiscal year stood at Tk12,158 crore.

During this period, the government earned total revenue of Tk1,17,800 crore. Of this, Tk92,100 crore came from tax revenue collected by the National Board of Revenue (NBR) and other taxes. Grants amounted to Tk700 crore, while non-tax revenue and other income totalled Tk25,000 crore.

The report states that the government did not need to borrow to meet operating expenditure during the first three months of the fiscal year. After covering operating expenditure and spending on non-financial asset acquisition from total revenue, the government had a surplus of Tk15,200 crore. Even after meeting development expenditure, a surplus of Tk3,042 crore remained in government accounts.

An official from the Finance Division, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the surplus appeared mainly because development expenditure was low. Under the current government, fewer new projects have been taken up, and spending on ongoing projects has also been limited.

The official added that in the first three months of the current fiscal year, the National Board of Revenue collected more than 20% higher revenue compared to the same period of the previous fiscal year, but development spending did not increase accordingly.

When asked about the issue, Towfiqul Islam Khan, Additional Director (Research) at the private research organisation Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), told The Business Standard, "Allocations for interest servicing and salaries and allowances are always fixed in the budget, as interest on past borrowing must be paid. As a result, there is little scope to adjust these expenditures. Because spending in other areas that was expected at the start of the fiscal year did not take place, a large share of expenditure appears to have gone towards interest payments."

He noted that it would not be possible to exit this situation quickly.

"If the government can increase revenue collection and avoid high-interest borrowing, pressure from debt servicing could ease. However, in recent fiscal years, borrowing has been used to finance operating expenditure. Ideally, borrowing should be directed towards sectors where the resulting asset creation generates returns greater than the loan principal and interest," he said.

Towfiqul added that there was a time when deficit budgets were not a major concern, but that framework has now broken down. As a result, Bangladesh faces rising debt risks, and the budget structure itself has come under strain. An elected government, he said, must undertake a deep review of the situation and take informed decisions.

Bangladeshis living abroad sent home a record $3.17 billion in remittances in January this year, posting a 45 percent year-on-year jump.

Bankers credited this surge to various factors, including the national election scheduled to be held on February 12.

They said relatives of candidates normally send money for election campaigning.

Moreover, Ramadan, the holy month of fasting for Muslims, is set to begin a few days after the national polls, when migrant workers typically send more money home compared to other months.

They also added that more expatriates are now using formal banking channels, while informal routes have siphoned off less money since the political changeover in August 2024.

Cumulatively, remittance inflows in the first seven months of the current fiscal year (July–January) stood at $19.44 billion, up from $15.96 billion during the same period of the previous fiscal year, representing a year-on-year growth of 21.8 percent.

India has increased its defence budget by 15% to Rs 7.84 lakh crore for the 2026–27 financial year, as the country plans major procurement programmes, including contracts for Rafale fighter jets, submarines and unmanned aerial vehicles.

The allocation marks a sharp rise from Rs 6.81 lakh crore in the 2025–26 financial year.

Of the total outlay, the armed forces will receive Rs 2.19 lakh crore for modernisation under the capital budget, reflecting a 21.84% increase from Rs 1.80 lakh crore in the previous fiscal year.

Under capital expenditure, Rs 63,733 crore has been earmarked for aircraft and aero engines, while Rs 25,023 crore has been allocated for strengthening the naval fleet.

In another boost to the defence sector, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, while presenting the budget in parliament, announced an exemption of basic customs duty on imported raw materials used in manufacturing aircraft parts for maintenance, repair and overhaul activities in defence units.

Private sector credit growth fell to a record low in December 2025 due to political uncertainty and an economic slowdown, signalling stagnant investment.

Last month, business credit growth dropped to 6.10 percent, the lowest in at least four years, down from 6.58 percent in November, according to Bangladesh Bank data.

The central bank had set a credit growth target of 7.2 percent for private businesses in December 2025 in its July–December 2025 monetary policy, after growth reached 6.5 percent by the end of June 2025.

Two leading bankers said loan demand remains weak because entrepreneurs are hesitant to make new investments or expand their businesses.

“All are waiting for a peaceful political transition. A free and fair election is needed for credit demand to pick up,” said Mati Ul Hasan, managing director of Mercantile Bank PLC.

He added that the weak loan demand has led to rising liquidity in the banking sector.

Ashikur Rahman, principal economist at the Policy Research Institute (PRI) of Bangladesh, said private credit growth has slowed as economic agents factor in the uncertainty surrounding the national elections scheduled for February 12.

“Since the political climate strongly affects investment decisions, entrepreneurs are delaying investments to see who will take power after the election and whether the process is seen as credible enough to bring political stability,” he added.

Mohammad Ali, managing director and CEO of Pubali Bank PLC, one of the oldest private banks, said private sector investment remains stagnant.

He added that the slow implementation of public development projects is another reason.

“All attention is on the election,” he said, adding that demand for long-term loans and capital machinery may increase in May-June after the election.

Bangladesh Bank said in its July-December 2025 policy that several factors may have slowed credit demand, including weaker borrowing from non-bank deposit corporations and other financial sectors amid ongoing uncertainties in the country, as well as the impact of a contractionary monetary policy.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said in its latest report on Bangladesh that unresolved banking issues would further limit credit, reduce investment, and slow growth. High non-performing loans and undercapitalisation in the banking sector restrict banks’ ability to provide credit for private sector development.

The Bangladesh Bank (BB) has asked banks to submit detailed information on agricultural and rural loans of up to Tk 10,000 so the data can be kept ready “for the next government”.

In a recent email from the central bank’s agriculture credit department, banks were instructed to provide comprehensive loan data following what officials described as an urgent directive from a BB board member.

“You are requested to send via email the data -- as of December 31, 2025 -- on agricultural and rural loans up to a maximum of Tk 10,000, including total principal, interest/profit, and outstanding balance,” according to the email seen by The Daily Star.

The central bank’s move to collect the information comes just days after Bangladesh Nationalist Party Chairman Tarique Rahman, on January 29, pledged to waive agricultural loans of up to Tk 10,000, including interest, and to introduce “farmer cards” if his party is voted into power.

Contacted, Arief Hossain Khan, executive director and spokesperson of Bangladesh Bank, told The Daily Star that a director had placed the matter before the board.

When asked about the reason, he said the central bank wants to be able to supply the information quickly if the next government takes any initiative regarding agricultural loans or the agricultural sector.

“It may be coincidental that the issue arose at the same time as a political party chief’s announcement on waiving agricultural loans,” he added.

Officials at the central bank said resentment has grown among agricultural loan departments of banks over the matter.

After staying relatively affordable for several months, the prices of edible oil and chicken have started climbing ahead of Ramadan, while the vegetable market has stayed mostly stable. A market survey in Dhaka's Karwan Bazar, Lalbagh and New Market today (30 January) found notable increases in several key commodities.

Loose soybean oil is now selling at around Tk170 per litre, up from about Tk165, and bottled soybean oil has risen from roughly Tk190 to Tk200 per litre. Broiler chicken now commands about Tk170–180 per kg, compared with Tk155–160 per kg a couple of weeks ago, while Sonali chicken is priced around Tk270–300 per kg.

Despite the rises in meat prices, egg prices remain stable, with brown eggs around Tk110 per dozen and white eggs about Tk100 per dozen. Beef is selling at Tk750–780 per kg.

Rice prices have also jumped unusually early ahead of Ramadan. Polao rice is now being sold at about Tk138–140 per kg in retail markets, and branded packaged rice commands even higher prices. Some coarse and medium rice varieties have shown slight price relief.

Lentil prices had risen in recent weeks but have eased somewhat. Chickpeas are selling at around Tk95–100 per kg, while red gram lentils have fallen by about Tk5 per kg to roughly Tk55–56 per kg, and larger lentil varieties have become cheaper

Overall vegetable prices are mostly unchanged from last week, with many vegetables selling in the Tk40–50 per kg range. Potatoes and tomatoes have become slightly cheaper compared with a week ago.

Fish prices have not shifted significantly. Depending on size, carp such as Rohu and Catla are selling between roughly Tk300 to Tk450 per kg, while tilapia and koi are about Tk200–240 per kg, and pangas around Tk180–200 per kg. Shrimp remains comparatively expensive, priced between Tk550 and Tk900 per kg depending on size and variety.

The US dollar gained on Friday after former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh was selected to be the next ​Fed chair, and as the US currency recovered from a sharp selloff earlier in the week that analysts say was ‌overdone in the short-term.

President Donald Trump on Friday chose Warsh to head the US central bank when Jerome Powell’s leadership term ends in May. Warsh is seen as likely to support lower interest rates but would stop well short of the more aggressive easing associated with some of the other potential nominees.

Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex, said that Friday’s move higher in the dollar is likely driven at least in part by positioning heading into the announcement.

“The dollar was ‌terribly oversold on the short-term momentum,” Chandler said. Meanwhile Warsh is “only one person…there’s no consensus to have lower rates ​anytime soon, even if we get a late cut or two at the end of the year, like the December dot plot suggested.”

Policymaker projections issued after the US central bank’s December meeting showed a median expectation for a single quarter-percentage-point cut this year.

The Fed on Wednesday held interest rates steady, as ‍was widely expected, amid what Chair Jerome Powell described as a solid economy and diminished risks to both inflation and employment, an outlook that could signal a lengthy wait before any further reductions in borrowing costs.

Fed funds futures traders are pricing in 52 basis points of rate cuts this year, with the first 25-basis-point reduction likely in June.

“The reaction in the markets to Donald Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh to be the next Fed Chair is broadly consistent with our view that the president ‍has made a relatively safe choice,” John Higgins, chief markets economist at Capital Economics said in a report.

“The perception seems to be that Warsh is not someone who is ‌firmly in ‌the president’s pocket and that he won’t contribute to a further undermining of the Fed’s independence and fears of currency debasement,” Higgins said.

Gold and silver prices dived Friday and European stock markets ended the week up while Wall Street pulled back with investors reassured by US President Donald Trump's pick to take over as head of the Federal Reserve.

The precious metals, viewed as safe-haven investments, had already begun sliding on reports, later confirmed, that Trump had nominated former Fed official Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell as chair of the US central bank.

Trump announced his choice Friday on social media, saying that Warsh, a former Morgan Stanley investment banker and Fed governor, "will go down as one of the GREAT Fed Chairmen, maybe the best."

Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB trading group, said the "interesting pick...may give the market some hope that Fed independence will be preserved."

Trump's personal attacks on Fed boss Jerome Powell -- set to depart in May -- have fueled widespread fears among investors that the central bank's policy independence is under threat, potentially posing an inflation risk to the US economy.

Precious metals prices tumbled on Friday after surging in recent days when investors sought a safe haven over doubts about Trump's policies.

Gold fell as much as 12 percent at one point, retreating below $5,000 an ounce after hitting a record high near $5,600 on Thursday.

Silver, which Thursday reached an all-time peak above $120 an ounce, shed around 30 percent to about $82 an ounce.

Financial markets have endured a roller-coaster ride this week as traders weathered a weaker dollar, Trump's threats against Tehran, the president's resumption of tariff threats and a possible US government shutdown.

Asian stock markets closed out the week with some hefty losses following Thursday's tech-led retreat on Wall Street on renewed concerns over vast investments in artificial intelligence.

Healthy earnings from Meta, Samsung and SK Hynix provided much cheer early in the week but Microsoft was punished over worries its costly AI program might not result in financial gains.

There are fears that firms' valuations may be a little too stretched and that markets could be in a bubble, having soared in recent years to record highs on the back of a tech-fueled rally.

The dollar pushed higher on Warsh's nomination.

"Most currency strategists would argue that his nomination may be good news for the dollar, which can price out some risks of a more dovish pick," said Forex.com's Fawad Razaqzada.

"However, for as long as policy uncertainty hangs over the US economy with Trump's tariff theatrics, the dollar debasement narrative is likely to hold back the greenback from making a meaningful comeback."

Among individual companies, Verizon surged 11.8 percent as it reported its highest quarter of mobility and broadband subscription increases since 2019.

The Investment Corporation of Bangladesh (ICB) has incurred a loss of Tk311 crore in the first half (July-December) of the current fiscal year (2025-26).

According to its price sensitive information (PSI) disclosed today (29 January), the company's per share loss stood at Tk3.59.

ICB said it incurred the loss due to decrease in Interest Income and Capital Gain from sale of securities and increase in the payment of Interest against Term Deposit.

The government has reduced fuel prices by Tk2 per litre across the country. The move will take effect at the consumer level from February 1.

The Power, Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry announced the decision in a press release issued today.

Under the revised rates, diesel will be sold at Tk100 per litre, down from Tk102. Octane prices have been reduced to Tk120 from Tk122 per litre, while petrol will now cost Tk116 per litre instead of Tk 118. Kerosene prices have also been lowered to Tk112 per litre from the previous Tk114.

According to the ministry, fuel prices in the country are adjusted automatically at the consumer level in line with fluctuations in the global market.

Depositors of Sammilito Islami Bank will be able to withdraw profit on their deposits from February 1, Bangladesh Bank (BB) Governor Ahsan H Mansur said yesterday.

All depositors’ principal amounts would remain fully secure and would be returned gradually, as previously announced, he said at a press conference at BB headquarters.

Currently, customers are allowed to withdraw up to Tk 2 lakh from any deposit scheme, he added.

The governor acknowledged that dissatisfaction has surfaced in various quarters regarding Sammilito Islami Bank, but said the authorities are working to address the issues.

“No plan can be implemented with 100 percent success. Problems are identified over time and resolved step by step,” he said, adding that some groups are attempting to obstruct the implementation of Sammilito banking operations.

Mansur said that from January 1 this year, depositors have been receiving profit at market rates.

The profit rate has been fixed at 9.5 percent for deposits with a tenure of more than one year, while deposits with a tenure of less than one year will earn 9 percent.

He said that depositors’ interests are being given the highest priority in the reform process, adding that the government’s 4 percent support for two years is costing an additional Tk 4,500 crore.

Urging depositors to remain calm, he called on the public not to be misled by rumours surrounding the bank.

The development comes several weeks after BB issued a directive to the five merged banks, Exim, First Security Islami, Social Islami, Union, and Global Islami, saying that no profit would be paid to depositors for the calendar years 2024 and 2025.

Following the backlash from depositors, the governor announced that the government would provide a 4 percent payment for those two loss-making years (2024 and 2025).

Foreign debt servicing by the government and its guaranteed loans rose 17 percent to $7.09 billion at the end of June in the last fiscal year.

The amount ate up around 76 percent of the total grants and loans of $9.3 billion that Bangladesh received in the fiscal year (FY) 2024-25.

Of the total repayment, $5 billion was principal, including $2.6 billion in state-guaranteed loans taken by public agencies. For example, Bangladesh paid $1.41 billion to settle crude oil import bills. The remaining $2.08 billion went to interest payments, according to data from the Economic Relations Division (ERD).

This marks another year of rising debt servicing costs for Bangladesh, which have more than doubled over the last five years. The government repaid $6.08 billion in principal and service charges to foreign lenders in FY24, double the $3.3 billion paid in FY21. Debt servicing crossed the $1 billion mark for the first time in FY13.

At the end of FY25, Bangladesh’s foreign debt stock stood at $87.3 billion. Of this, $77.28 billion was government debt, while the rest was government-guaranteed debt taken by public sector agencies.

The debt stock rose around 12 percent from the previous year. External debt accounted for 18.99 percent of the country’s Gross Domestic Product, well below the 40 percent threshold.

Mustafa K Mujeri, executive director of the Institute for Inclusive Finance and Development (InM), said the rise in debt repayment reflects the end of the grace period for some foreign loans, many of which are in their final stages.

He added that many loans are not soft loans but hard loans with high interest rates and short grace periods, which will increase repayment pressure in the near future.

Mujeri, a former director general of the Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies, said the previous government borrowed heavily to fund large projects, and borrowing continued under the current government. With many projects now at their final stages, principal repayments have begun, pushing up debt servicing costs.

He added that significant budgetary support in recent years, provided to help the country recover from the coronavirus pandemic, has also increased loan repayments.

Global interest rate increases are another factor, although the ERD said interest rate risk is limited because most external loans are obtained at concessionary fixed rates.

Citing the World Bank’s classification, the ERD said that all indicators remain below threshold levels, categorising Bangladesh as a “less indebted” country.

However, Mujeri stressed that the government needs to strengthen its loan repayment capacity.

Bangladesh is set to seek a binding 12-year transition period to safeguard its export-oriented economy from post-LDC-graduation trade challenges in a high-stakes strategy to be placed at the upcoming WTO ministerial meet.

Officials say the government has finalized a comprehensive Position Paper for placing at the 14th World Trade Organisation (WTO) Ministerial Conference (MC14) will be held in Cameroon on March 26-29.

The Position Paper outlines a strategy that balances the prestige of "Developing Nation" status with the pragmatic needs to shield its around U$50billion export economy from the "graduation shock."

"The four-day global trade summit…in Yaoundé will mark Bangladesh's final Ministerial appearance as a Least-Developed Country (LDC) ahead of its scheduled graduation on November 24, 2026," says one trade official.

The Bangladesh delegation, led by the Ministry of Commerce and supported by the ERD or Economic Relations Division, is expected to fly to Cameroon with a clear mandate: 'No agreement is better than a bad agreement that compromises the livelihood of millions of garment workers and small-scale farmers'.

According to the finalised position paper, Dhaka will lead the LDC group in demanding a structured graduation "Support Package".Online newspaper reader

The centerpiece of this strategy is the extension of LDC-specific Special and Differential Treatment (S&DT) for 12 years to ensure a sustainable transition into the developing-country club.

While MC13 (Abu Dhabi) secured a 3-year grace period for certain LDC supports, Bangladesh is pushing for a more robust 12-year horizon for Duty-Free Quota-Free (DFQF) market access.

"Graduation should be a reward for development, not a penalty for success," a senior official at the commerce ministry involved in drafting the paper told The Financial Express.

"Without a decade-long transition, our RMG sector-contributing over 80 per cent to national exports-could face an immediate tariff hike of 12 per cent in major markets, eroding competitiveness against regional peers," he notes.

"If a star performer like Bangladesh faces a trade crisis after graduation, it sends the wrong signal to every other LDC. Our success is, ultimately, the WTO's success."

Graduation implies a jump in tariffs from 0 per cent to nearly 9.0-12 per cent in the EU and 16-18 per cent in Canada, according a source.

Bangladesh's position is to negotiate Rules of Origin (RoO) that allow for more flexibility, moving away from "double transformation" requirements to maintain competitiveness.

The strategy involves leveraging the G-90 coalition to ensure that developed partners (EU, UK, China, Japan) honor their 3-year post-graduation grace periods (2026-2029) and push for these to be made permanent under GSP+ or similar schemes.Banking services comparison

Dhaka is seeking an extension of the TRIPS (Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights) waiver until 2034. The TRIPS is a non-negotiable priority. Under current LDC rules, Bangladesh can produce patented medicines without licences.

Losing TRIPS waiver in 2026 would force the U$3.0-billion domestic generic drug industry to enforce expensive patent regimes, potentially hiking local medicine prices and halting export to other LDCs.

Current WTO drafts suggest members with a global marine catch share of over 0.8 per cent (which includes Bangladesh) must face stricter subsidy disciplines.

The position paper argues for permanent S&DT for graduating LDCs to protect the livelihoods of artisanal/small-scale fishers who rely on government social-safety nets.

Currently, there are around 20 million artisanal fishers across the country.

Bangladesh will insist that subsidies for "overfished stocks" must be protected for at least 7-10 years for graduated LDCs.

As a Net Food Importing Developing Country (NFIDC), Bangladesh's position focuses on securing a "Permanent Solution" that allows the government to buy food at administered prices for stockholding without violating WTO subsidy caps and advocating for exemptions that prevent other nations from banning food exports to LDCs/NFIDCs during global crises.Newspaper subscription

The global moratorium on customs duties for electronic transmissions is set to expire at MC14.

Bangladesh is currently in a "wait and see" mode. While it benefits from the moratorium for its ICT/freelancing sector, the paper highlights the need to balance the growth of the about U$2.0-billion IT sector against potential fiscal revenue losses.

Bangladesh is likely to support a temporary extension of the moratorium but will demand Technical Assistance and a "Work Programme" that helps developing nations in building internal VAT/GST systems to capture digital trade value.

Beyond issue-specific demands, Bangladesh is expected to use MC14 to push for broader institutional reform at the WTO-most notably the restoration of the Dispute Settlement System and Appellate Body.

Here, the official position rests on some primary pillars. These pillars are support for the immediate restoration of a functional two-tier dispute-settlement system, which has been hampered by a lack of appointments to its appellate body, full alignment with G-90 proposals aimed at making development provisions more "precise, effective, and operational" rather than merely aspirational and rejecting any mandate that forces differentiation among developing member-states.Online newspaper reader

The position paper argues that without a functioning appellate mechanism, smaller economies are increasingly exposed to unilateral trade measures, arbitrary tariffs and protectionist policies by major powers.

For Bangladesh, a rules-based system with enforceable outcomes is essential as it transitions from preference-dependent status to full competition under WTO disciplines.

Domestically, the government has already operationalised its Smooth Transition Strategy (STS), consisting of five foundational pillars and 157 concrete actions.

The strategy aims to improve logistics through the National Logistics Policy 2025 and implement the Customs Single- Window system to lower the cost of doing business, which is currently seen as a bottleneck for post-LDC competitiveness.

Experts suggest the Yaoundé conference will be a "defining moment" for Bangladesh to leverage its influence as a leader of the LDC group to secure international legal guarantees.

There are 166 members under the WTO of which 75 per cent are developing countries and LDCs.

After takeover by the current interim government, local business community has called for a three-to-six-year deferral of the country's planned graduation from LDC status in November 2026, citing mounting economic headwinds and weak industrial preparedness.

Trade bodies warn that the loss of duty-free, quota-free market access, expiry of the TRIPS waiver for pharmaceuticals and the withdrawal of export subsidies could significantly erode export competitiveness.

With inflation, energy constraints and high interest rates already straining businesses, stakeholders argue the current timeline risks compounding shocks to the private sector.

While economists stress the need for long-term efficiency-driven reforms, businesses maintain that a temporary extension is critical to protecting exports and ensuring a smoother transition.

Advanced Chemical Industries (ACI) PLC posted strong growth in revenue in the first half of the current fiscal year, reflecting steady domestic demand and continued expansion of its operations.

According to the company's financial disclosure, consolidated revenue rose by 18% year-on-year to Tk7,794 crore in the July–December period, compared to Tk6,619 crore in the same period a year earlier.

It posted a consolidated net profit of Tk30 crore during the half-year, which was a net loss of Tk64 crore in the same time a year ago.

ACI PLC is one of the country's leading conglomerates, with a presence in pharmaceuticals, consumer brands, logistics and retail.