Global inflation is expected to fall to 3.8% this year and to 3.4% in 2027, helped by softer demand and lower energy prices, the IMF chief said on Monday.

Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said in a speech in the Annual Arab Fiscal Forum in Dubai that global growth has held up 'remarkably well' amid profound shifts in geopolitics, trade policy, technology, and demographics.

A high-stakes race to hand over Bangladesh's most profitable maritime asset to a foreign operator has ignited a firestorm of legal challenges, labour strikes, and allegations of massive financial undervaluation.

Under the watch of an interim administration, the Chattogram Port Authority (CPA) is fast-tracking a 15-year concession for the New Mooring Container Terminal (NCT) to UAE-based DP World. While officials defend the move as a necessary leap towards global efficiency, critics argue the deal is being "rammed through" just days before national elections and in defiance of a sub judice court process.

At the centre of the controversy is the New Mooring Container Terminal (NCT), a strategic facility that handles around 90% of Bangladesh's containerised cargo. The Chattogram Port Authority (CPA) has moved to lease out the terminal and its adjacent Overflow Container Yard to UAE-based global operator DP World for 15 years under a government-to-government arrangement.

The move has raised concerns among economists and labour leaders over whether the interim government has the mandate to finalise a long-term international concession involving a strategic national asset.

Critics have also questioned the valuation and single-bidder nature of the process, while officials argue the deal is necessary to expand capacity and improve efficiency at the country's main maritime gateway.

The government has not publicly responded to questions about the interim administration's legal authority to sign long-term concessions.

Timeline set before court verdict

Documents reviewed by The Business Standard reveal that the CPA issued a 63-page RFP on 8 January, seeking proposals for the operation and maintenance of the NCT and its Overflow Container Yard. Crucially, this occurred three weeks before the Supreme Court's 29 January ruling, which upheld the legality of the leasing process.

The deadline for clarification was 11 January, with pre-bid meetings held on 14 and 15 January. An addendum followed on 20 January, and the bid submission deadline has been fixed for 19 February 2026.

A senior official of the Public Private Partnership Authority, speaking on condition of anonymity, said most formalities had already been completed.

"Now, a few final-stage formalities are under process. Once they are completed, the concession agreement can be signed anytime this week before the election," the official said.

Legal experts have questioned the propriety of proceeding while the matter was sub judice.

Barrister Anwar Hossain, representing the petitioners, told TBS, "When a matter is sub judice, you cannot proceed with it. If the CPA submitted the RFP and held meetings during the court hearing, they defied the court."

He added that an application seeking a status quo on the verdict has already been filed. "Even if the court sends the appeal to a full bench without issuing a status quo, the authority is not legally allowed to proceed with the agreement," he said.

Labour strike disrupt port operations

The proposed handover has triggered strong resistance from port workers. A two-day eight-hour work abstention from Saturday to Sunday, followed by another protest today (2 February), paralysed cargo handling and vessel movement at Chattogram Port.

Workers today announced a further 24-hour strike from 8am tomorrow, which they say coincides with an initial target date for signing the concession agreement.

Chattogram Port, which typically handles 8,000-9,000 TEUs of containers a day, has seen a significant drop in its activity.

Labour leaders argue that NCT is a highly profitable facility and accuse authorities of undervaluing it. According to them, the current tariff generates around $161 per TEU at NCT. Even if operating costs are estimated at $56 per TEU, the port earns roughly $105 per container.

"The CPA and the Rate Negotiation Committee want to hand over NCT to DP World at $105 per TEU. A top government official is pressuring Chattogram Port to hand it over at just $42 per TEU," alleged Humayun Kabir, coordinator of the Bandar Rokkha Sangram Oikya Parishad.

CPA documents reviewed by TBS do not publicly disclose the basis for the proposed per-TEU rate.

Another protesting leader, Ibrahim Khokan, questioned the urgency of the decision. "The country will have an elected government in just 10 days. Why doesn't the interim government leave such a strategic decision to the elected government?" he said, alleging personal interests behind the rush to finalise the deal.

Lease process

Operational since 2007, NCT is one of the most critical facilities at Chattogram Port, Bangladesh's principal maritime gateway. The brownfield riverine terminal has an 820-metre quay wall, four container berths and extensive back-up facilities. The adjacent Overflow Container Yard, developed in 2015, provides additional container storage.

According to the RFP, the government aims to expand port capacity and improve efficiency to support growing manufacturing and export sectors. DP World was selected as the potential partner, with the International Finance Corporation (IFC) acting as transaction adviser.

The concession includes a transition period of up to six months, followed by a 15-year operation and maintenance phase. At the end of the term, the facilities will revert to the CPA at no cost, except for any additional equipment installed by the operator. A feasibility study estimates the project cost at $205 million.

The RFP restricts bidding to DP World or a consortium led by it, with the lead member holding at least 51% equity. Bidders must submit legal, technical and financial proposals in English, along with a $1.5 million bid security valid for 180 days.

Technical bids will be evaluated first, followed by financial bids. The successful bidder will have to pay a $2 million project development fee to the IFC and a $4,00,000 success fee to the PPP Authority. A Bangladeshi special-purpose vehicle must be formed, with shareholding locked in for 10 years.

To qualify, bidders must show experience in managing at least one container terminal handling a minimum of 7,50,000 TEUs annually in each of the last three financial years and a net worth of at least $100 million per year over the same period.

The process received in-principle approval from the Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs in March 2023. A writ petition filed by the Bangladesh Young Economists Forum later challenged the lack of open competition and transparency.

After a split High Court verdict in late 2025, the Supreme Court's 29 January ruling removed the final legal hurdle. However, an application seeking a status quo on the verdict was subsequently filed.

Omar Faruk, director (administration) of the CPA, told journalists at a briefing on Sunday that leasing out NCT to DP World is a government decision. "The CPA is just implementing the government's decision," he said.

Professor Anu Muhammad, a noted economist, questioned the legal authority of the interim government to proceed with a long-term international agreement. He argued that the interim administration's mandate was limited to holding elections and did not extend to signing strategic international contracts.

"They must withdraw from activities related to international agreements, including Chattogram Port. Advisers and special assistants should stop engaging in these matters," he said, expressing solidarity with protesting port workers.

US President Donald Trump today (3 February) announced that India and the United States have agreed to a bilateral trade deal, capping months of hard negotiations.

In a post on his social media platform Truth Social, Trump wrote that under the deal, which takes effect immediately, the US would reduce reciprocal tariff from 25% to 18% and India would cut its tariff and non-tariff barriers against the US to zero.

"Out of friendship and respect for [Indian] Prime Minister Modi and, as per his request, effective immediately, we agreed to a Trade Deal between the United States and India, whereby the United States will charge a reduced reciprocal tariff, lowering it from 25% to 18%.

"They will likewise move forward to reduce their Tariffs and Non Tariff Barriers against the United States, to zero," Trump wrote.

Trump said the Indian premier also committed to "buy American" at a much higher level, in addition to over $500 billion in energy, technology, agricultural, coal and many other products.

Trump's announcement of the deal came after a phone call with Modi earlier today.

Trump further said, "Our amazing relationship with India will be even stronger going forward. Prime Minister Modi and I are two people that get things done, something that cannot be said for most. Thank you for your attention to this matter!"

Ahead of the announcement, Trump spoke to Modi, American Ambassador to India Sergio Gor said in a post on X.

The deal comes after several months of negotiations since March 2025. In the interregnum, the Trump administration levied a steep 50% tariff on Indian exports to the US, including 25% for India's purchase of Russian crude oil, which the US claimed was indirectly financing Russia's war against Ukraine.

Trump wrote on Truth Social, "It was an honor to speak with Prime Minister Modi, of India, this morning. He is one of my greatest friends and a powerful and respected leader of his country.

"We spoke about many things, including trade and ending the war with Russia and Ukraine. He agreed to stop buying Russian Oil and to buy much more from the United States and, potentially, Venezuela. This will help end the war in Ukraine, which is taking place right now, with thousands of people dying each and every week!"

India has maintained throughout the negotiations with the US that its agriculture and dairy sectors would continue to be protected.

The India-US trade deal comes just days after India and the EU announced a Free Trade Agreement that New Delhi and Brussels called the "mother of all" trade deals.

While the European Union is India's largest trading partner as an economic bloc, the US remains India's single largest trading partner.

Modi, for his part, wrote on his X, "Wonderful to speak with my dear friend President Trump today. Delighted that made-in-India products will now have a reduced tariff of 18%. Big thanks to President Trump on behalf of the 1.4 billion people of India for this wonderful announcement."

However, there is no word from Modi on India bringing down India's tariff against US imports to zero.

Modi said, "When two large economies and the world's largest democracies work together, it benefits our people and unlocks immense opportunities for mutually beneficial cooperation."

He said Trump's leadership "is vital for global peace, stability and prosperity. India fully supports his efforts for peace".

"I look forward to working closely with him to take our partnership to unprecedented heights," the Indian PM added.

Bangladesh's export earnings remained largely stagnant in the first seven months of the current fiscal year, as a sustained slowdown in garment shipments continued to outweigh incremental gains in non-readymade garment sectors, reflecting the economy's dependence on a single export pillar.

According to data from the Export Promotion Bureau (EPB), exports during July-January FY26 stood at $28.41 billion, registering a 1.93% year-on-year decline, even as shipments rebounded 11.22% month-on-month in January.

Readymade garments (RMG), which account for about 81% of Bangladesh's export basket, recorded a 2.43% year-on-year fall during the period, exerting downward pressure on overall export performance despite moderate growth in several non-RMG segments, including engineering products, leather goods, jute items, frozen fish and home textiles.

Export earnings from the RMG sector amounted to $22.98 billion in the July-January period, down from a year earlier. Within the segment, knitwear exports declined by 3.13%, while woven garment shipments fell 1.60%, reflecting weak demand and continued price pressures in major markets.

In contrast, non-RMG exports posted relatively stronger growth, though from a much smaller base.

EPB data show that engineering product exports rose by nearly 26%, driven by sharp increases in bicycle exports (31%) and electrical products (26.8%).

Exports of leather and leather goods increased 5.7%, while home textile shipments grew 3.3% and jute and jute goods exports edged up by just over 2% during the period.

Fazle Ehsan Shamim, vice president of the BKMEA, told The Business Standard that exports have slowed due to both global and domestic factors.

"The US's reciprocal tariff on Bangladeshi products reduced orders, while Indian and Chinese exporters gained greater access to the EU market, affecting Bangladesh's garment shipments," he said.

Shamim also cited domestic political uncertainty ahead of elections, which led major buyers to cut orders by 20-30% to avoid delivery risks.

MA Rahim Firoz, vice chairman of DBL Group, said historical experience shows that foreign buyers often reduce orders before and after elections – a trend observed for the past 30 years. He predicted this pattern would continue over the next two months, with significant growth only expected from April.

Exports decline for 6th consecutive month

Bangladesh's exports fell in January 2026, continuing a six-month streak of year-on-year declines. Export earnings reached $4.41 billion, down 0.50% from $4.43 billion in January 2025, EPB data shows.

Industry sources noted that such consecutive point-to-point declines have not been seen since the global Covid-19 lockdowns in 2020, when shipments were disrupted worldwide.

Data further show that exports in the first month of FY26, July 2025, stood at $4.77 billion. The following months recorded $3.91 billion in August, $3.62 billion in September, $3.82 billion in October, $3.89 billion in November, and $3.96 billion in December.

This indicates a significant drop in exports from the levels seen at the start of the fiscal year. Last July, the US imposed reciprocal tariffs on Bangladeshi products, putting pressure on the country's largest export market, which in turn affected other markets. Conditions gradually improved in subsequent months.

For comparison, in FY25, exports were $3.82 billion in July, $4.03 billion in August, $3.80 billion in September, $4.13 billion in October, $4.12 billion in November, and $4.62 billion in December.

RMG exports show slight decline

The country's main export product, ready-made garments, fell 1.35% year-on-year in January. RMG shipments amounted to $3.61 billion, down from $3.66 billion in January 2025. However, RMG exports rose 11.77% compared with December 2025.

Exports to Germany, France, Italy, Japan, Denmark, Australia, Sweden, Belgium, and Turkey declined in January compared with December. By contrast, shipments increased to the US, UK, Spain, Netherlands, Poland, India, Canada, China, UAE, and Saudi Arabia.

Exports to India grew the most, rising 19.23% month-on-month to $166 million in January, up from $127 million in December. Despite this, cumulative exports to India in the first seven months (July-January) fell 4.98% to $1.05 billion, down from $1.10 billion in the same period of FY25.

An additional financing agreement and a grant agreement were signed yesterday between the government of Bangladesh and the International Development Association (IDA) of the World Bank (WB) Group for an amount of US$ 150 million loan and US$0.75 million grant to implement the “Recovery and Advancement of Informal Sector Employment (RAISE) Project.”

The project has been under implementation since 2021 and is scheduled to continue until June 2026 with the World Bank support. The implementation period for the additional financing is until 31 December 2030.

Md. Shahriar Kader Siddiky, Secretary, Economic Relations Division (ERD), Ministry of Finance and Jean Pesme, Division Director of the World Bank for Bangladesh and Bhutan signed the financing agreements on their respective sides. The project is being implemented by the Palli Karma-Sahayak Foundation (PKSF) under the Financial Institutions Division of the Ministry of Finance, said an ERD press release.Finance software

The objective of the project is to provide services that can enhance earning opportunities and employment for low-income urban and rural-youth and youth impacted by Covid-19.

The additional financing comprises a US$150 million loan from IDA and a US$0.75 million grant from the Early Learning Partnership Multi-Donor Trust Fund (ELP MDTF).

The loan carries an interest rate of 1.5 percent, a commitment fee of up to 0.50 percent on the undisbursed balance, and a maturity period of 25 years, including a 5-year grace period.

The World Bank is the largest multilateral development partner of Bangladesh. This financing reflects the deep cooperation between Bangladesh and the World Bank. Currently, the World Bank financing is covering a wide range of sectors, including economic and social development, institutional reforms, infrastructure development, and energy sector advancement.

Sediment containing rare earth was retrieved from ocean depths of 6,000 metres (20,000 feet) on a Japanese test mission, the government said Monday, as it seeks to curb dependence on China for the valuable minerals.

Japan says the mission was the world's first bid to tap deep sea rare earths at such a depth.

"Details will be analysed, including exactly how much rare earth is contained" in the sample, government spokesman Kei Sato said, calling it "a meaningful achievement both in terms of economic security and comprehensive maritime development".

The sample was collected by a deep-sea scientific drilling boat called the Chikyu that set sail last month for the remote island of Minami Torishima in the Pacific, where surrounding waters are believed to contain a rich trove of valuable minerals.

It comes as China -- by far the world's biggest supplier of rare earths -- ramps up pressure on its neighbour after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi suggested in November that Tokyo may react militarily to an attack on Taiwan, which Beijing has vowed to seize control of by force if necessary.

Beijing has blocked exports to Japan of "dual-use" items with potential military uses, fuelling worries in Japan that Beijing could choke supplies of rare earths, some of which are included in China's list of dual-use goods.

Rare earths -- 17 metals difficult to extract from the Earth's crust -- are used in everything from electric vehicles to hard drives, wind turbines and missiles.

The area around Minami Torishima, which is in Japan's economic waters, is estimated to contain more than 16 million tons of rare earths, which the Nikkei business daily says is the third-largest reserve globally.

These rich deposits contain an estimated 730 years' worth of dysprosium, used in high-strength magnets in phones and electric cars, and 780 years' worth of yttrium, used in lasers, the Nikkei said.

"If Japan could successfully extract rare earths around Minami Torishima constantly, it will secure domestic supply chain for key industries," Takahiro Kamisuna, research associate at The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), told AFP.

"Likewise, it will be a key strategic asset for Takaichi's government to significantly reduce the supply chain dependence on China."

Beijing has long used its dominance in rare earths for geopolitical leverage, including in its trade war with US President Donald Trump's administration.

China accounts for almost two-thirds of rare earth mining production and 92 percent of global refined output, according to the International Energy Agency.

BYD's vehicle sales fell by 30.1 percent in January from a year earlier, the fifth straight month of decline, as the Chinese electric vehicle maker navigates external uncertainties and tough competition at home.

The automaker sold 210,051 vehicles globally last month, a stock market filing on Sunday showed. The export volume of new energy vehicle was at 100,482 units for the month of January.

Its production was down 29.1 percent, extending a losing streak which began July last year.

At home, BYD launched upgraded new versions of a number of plug-in hybrid models with long-range batteries last month, aiming to boost the appeal of its affordable hybrid models.

Sales of plug-in hybrid cars, which made up more than half of BYD's total car sales, fell 28.5 percent in January, extending a trend after they fell 7.9 percent in 2025.

BYD said in January it has targeted 1.3 million vehicles in overseas shipments for this year, suggesting a 24 percent increase from 2025 but lower than an earlier goal of up to 1.6 million vehicles its management told Citi in a meeting in November.

The company did not give reasons for the downward revision.

Its new EV plant in Hungary is expected to come online this year, adding to its manufacturing in Brazil and Thailand. It also has planned assembly plants in Indonesia and Turkey.

A 150.7 percent surge in sales abroad helped BYD unseat Tesla as the world's top EV vendor last year, offsetting mounting pressure in its home market, notably from Geely and Leapmotor in the budget segment.

BYD narrowly met its slashed global sales target of 4.6 million units last year. It has not announced the 2026 target.

The world's largest auto market is expected to deal with stagnation this year as the Chinese government scales back subsidies for trading in lower-priced models, weighing on BYD and its peers betting on budget cars.

Chinese officials are promoting the launch of a free-trade port on the tropical island of Hainan as a major step in opening the economy to foreign investors, even as global trade tensions rise and protectionism increases elsewhere.

Officials describe the transition to what they call the world's largest free-trade port as a "substantial leap" in China's efforts to open its markets to foreigners. The move, which took effect in December, allows most goods to enter the island without tariffs and offers lower taxes for companies and high earners, says the Economist.

The free-trade port (FTP) covers an area nearly the size of Taiwan and is about 30 times larger than Hong Kong. Some analysts initially speculated that Beijing aimed to create a new Hong Kong-style hub after President Xi Jinping announced the plan in 2018, though officials say Hainan's ambitions are more limited.

Under the new rules, 74% of goods can enter Hainan tariff-free. Products can be shipped to the mainland without levies if they undergo processing on the island that adds at least 30% of their value. Taxes on firms in strategic sectors and on high earners are capped at 15%, compared with rates of up to 35% and 45% on the mainland. Citizens from 86 countries, including the United States, are eligible for visa-free entry.

Despite policy support, Hainan faces challenges in shedding a long-standing reputation as an economic backwater. Designated China's only province-wide special economic zone in 1988, it has struggled to deliver sustained growth beyond tourism.

In 2024, Hainan's GDP per capita was about 76,000 yuan ($10,900), below the national average and behind most other special economic zones. The province's total GDP, about $114 billion, was among the lowest in China, hindered in part by limited infrastructure links to the mainland.

Supporters argue the island's geographic isolation could be an advantage, allowing Beijing to test reforms without disrupting other parts of the country. One closely watched pilot allows firms to apply for less restricted internet access, enabling users to visit sites such as Google and X that are blocked on the mainland.

President Xi has described the creation of the FTP as a "landmark" move to promote "an open world economy." Li Daokui, a Tsinghua University professor and government adviser, said the experiment would be closely monitored.

"This youngest and bravest student in a cohort is given permission to swim in the deep water," Li said. "Then the whole class would watch what Hainan would do."

Medical tourism is one area the province hopes will benefit. In Boao Hope City, private hospitals are allowed to use foreign-approved drugs and devices not yet authorised in China. Some facilities have struggled to attract patients, while others cater to wealthy Chinese clients.

Manufacturing firms have also shown interest. Mixue, a Chinese beverage chain, has opened a factory to import coffee beans tariff-free and sell processed products on the mainland without additional duties. Swire Pacific is building a Coca-Cola bottling plant for the China market.

However, some executives remain sceptical. "The business case is just not there," said an auto industry executive, citing a lack of talent and well-integrated supply chains.

Local authorities have sponsored visits for potential investors. Lei Jun moved his video-game design firm from Fujian province to Hainan after such a trip, saying he was "won over by the climate and subsidies."

Service industries may offer more immediate opportunities. Chi Fulin, president of the China Institute for Reform and Development, said "Hainan will lead the opening up of the country's service sector."

But he cautioned that change would take time. "You might say that Hainan, where people wear down jackets on top and flip-flops below, has a lot of inertia," Chi said. "Changing these habits is a long-term process. But if the overall environment changes drastically, if it snows heavily, can you still wear flip-flops?"

Grameenphone, country's largest mobile telecom operator, has declared a 105% cash dividend as final to its shareholders for the year of 2025 ended on 31 December.

Earlier, it had paid a 110% cash dividend as interim, after calculating interim the total dividend is 215% for the last year, which represents 98.16% of its total profit.

According to the price sensitive statement published on its website, its earnings per share dropped by 19% year-on-year to Tk21.90 during the last year.

To approve the dividend and the audited financial statement, Grameenphone has scheduled the annual general meeting for 20 April and the record date is set for 3 March.

The country’s merchandise exports held nearly steady in January, with shipments totalling $4.41 billion, down 0.50 percent year-on-year, according to Export Promotion Bureau (EPB) data.

A slow recovery in the global supply chain and cautious order placement by international clothing retailers ahead of the general election weighed on growth.

This was the sixth consecutive month exports remained on a downward trend, according to EPB. On a month-on-month basis, however, January shipments rose 11.22 percent from $3.96 billion in December.

During the first seven months of the current fiscal year, exports declined 1.93 percent to $28.41 billion compared with the same period last year.

During the July-January period of FY26, garment shipments, the key point of the country’s trading might, fell 2.43 percent to $22.98 billion. Knitwear exports dropped 3.13 percent to $12.28 billion, while woven garment shipments fell 1.60 percent to $10.69 billion.

Inamul Haq Khan, senior vice-president of the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA), expressed hope for a rebound after the country’s general election on February 12.

“Because the international clothing retailers and brands did not place their full work orders considering the election year, it is a normal practice by the international retailers and brands usually before the election,” he said.

“We are hopeful that a positive change in placing of work orders by the retailers and brands after the election,” Khan told The Daily Star over phone yesterday.

Mohammad Hatem, president of the Bangladesh Knitwear Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BKMEA), said exports are expected to pick up strongly from June this year as retailers and brands begin placing orders after February.

Exporters say merchandise shipments from most major countries fell in recent months due to volatility in the global supply chain triggered by US President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs on multiple nations.

The supply chain has been gradually stabilising as the tariffs have been fixed and implemented.

Performance among the top six export sectors outside garments, such as leather and leather goods, jute and jute products, agro and agro-processed items, home textiles, light engineering, and frozen fish, showed mixed results, EPB said.

Leather and leather goods, jute and jute products, home textiles, plastics, and light engineering recorded growth both year-on-year and month-on-month.

Among key destinations, the United States remained Bangladesh’s top export market, with shipments worth $5.24 billion in July-January. Exports to the US rose 1.64 percent over the same period, 3.59 percent year-on-year, and 2.24 percent month-on-month.

Exports to other leading markets, including the European Union, also showed positive trends.

Germany and the United Kingdom retained second and third positions, with earnings of $2.85 billion and $2.7 billion respectively.

Great Britain, Spain, and the Netherlands also recorded growth both year-on-year and month-on-month.

During the July-January period, frozen food exports rose 4.94 percent to $297.56 million, while home textile shipments grew 3.26 percent to $509.97 million.

Jute and jute goods exports increased 1.97 percent to $493.85 million, and leather and leather goods exports rose 5.71 percent to $707.24 million.

Ceramics exports fell 20.91 percent to $17.63 million, and non-leather footwear shipments declined 2.06 percent to $311.53 million.

Cotton products also saw a drop, falling 17.28 percent to $305.57 million over the same period, EPB data showed.

Md Abul Hossain, chairman of the Bangladesh Jute Mills Association (BJMA), said the jute sector had been performing well because local millers can export more finished goods than raw jute.

“The value of finished goods is higher than raw jute, and the rate of value addition is also higher,” he said.

Hossain urged the government to continue the ban on raw jute exports, which was imposed in September last year.

Nestlé is managing a food safety issue in Hong Kong after the recall of 22 batches of baby milk formula, following the detection of a toxin produced by the Bacillus cereus bacterium, the company and local authorities said.

Recent follow-up investigations by the Centre for Food Safety (CFS) confirmed the presence of cereulide in five samples from the recalled batches. This marks the second detection of the toxin since the products were initially removed from store shelves, says the South China Morning Post.

The affected products include Nan INFINIPRO2 7HMO (800g), Nan PRO 1 2HMO (800g), and Illuma LUXA 1 (800g), with cereulide levels ranging from 0.2 to 1.3 micrograms per kilogram. Nestlé identified the source of contamination as an ingredient supplied to the company for these batches.

Cereulide is heat-stable, meaning it can survive standard preparation or processing temperatures, raising concerns about potential exposure.

The recall, which began in early January as a precautionary measure following similar actions in Europe, eventually covered 22 batches in Hong Kong.

The CFS said it continues to conduct follow-up investigations to ensure the safety of the recalled products.

The country's stock market staged a strong comeback yesterday, as a broad-based rally led by banking stocks pushed the benchmark index to its highest level in nearly four months and lifted total market capitalisation above Tk7 lakh crore for the first time in three months.

The DSEX, the prime index of the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE), jumped 54 points, or 1.04%, to close at 5,247, marking its strongest single-day gain in recent weeks.

The blue-chip DS30 index also moved firmly into positive territory, rising 20 points, or 1.03%, to settle at 2,017, reflecting renewed investor confidence in large-cap stocks.

Market participation improved notably, with 215 issues advancing against 107 decliners, while 68 stocks remained unchanged. Turnover surged by 19% to Tk746 crore, crossing the Tk700 crore mark for the first time in four months.

The rise in trading activity signalled a return of buying interest after a prolonged period of cautious sentiment, as investors selectively accumulated fundamentally strong stocks, particularly in the banking sector.

Market analysts believe the banking-led rally could continue in the near term if turnover remains strong and macroeconomic signals stay supportive.

However, they cautioned that sustained gains would depend on clear improvements in liquidity conditions, earnings visibility and policy clarity. For now, yesterday's session provided a significant psychological boost, as the DSEX reclaimed key levels and overall market capitalisation once again crossed the Tk7 lakh crore mark.

According to EBL Securities, the capital market extended its upward momentum for a second consecutive session, with heightened participation and sustained buying in banking shares propelling the benchmark index to a near four-month peak.

From the start of the session, the market maintained a positive tone, driven largely by large-cap banking stocks amid expectations of improved economic activity and a potential revival of private-sector investment following upcoming electoral developments, according to the review.

This upbeat sentiment gradually spread across other key sectors, resulting in broad-based gains throughout the trading session.

EBL Securities noted that investors appeared more willing to take positions in beaten-down stocks, encouraged by relatively attractive valuations and hopes of policy stability in the coming months.

Banking stocks lead gains

Banking stocks emerged as the clear market leaders, posting the highest sectoral gain of 2.57% for the day. Strong buying interest was observed in several major lenders, with Islami Bank, Al-Arafah Islami Bank, Midland Bank and AB Bank featuring prominently among the top gainers.

Islami Bank surged nearly 10%, while Al-Arafah Islami Bank rose close to the upper circuit limit, underscoring the renewed appetite for banking shares.

Other large-cap sectors also contributed to the rally, although to a lesser extent. Non-bank financial institutions advanced by more than 2%, while food and allied, telecommunication and pharmaceutical sectors closed in positive territory.

Market observers said the banking rally played a pivotal role in restoring overall confidence, as the sector is often seen as a proxy for broader economic health.

Turnover data further highlighted the dominance of banking stocks in yesterday's rally.

BRAC Bank, City Bank and Islami Bank ranked among the most actively traded shares, reflecting strong participation from both institutional and retail investors. Insurance and manufacturing stocks such as Pragati Life Insurance and Simtex Industries also featured among the turnover leaders.

Despite the broadly positive session, some stocks faced selling pressure. Meghna Pet, DBH First Mutual Fund and New Line Clothings were among the notable laggards, while power and tannery stocks also saw mild corrections.

Analysts said such movements were expected amid profit-taking in select counters after recent gains.

The upbeat trend was mirrored at the Chittagong Stock Exchange, where both major indices closed higher. The CSCX advanced 72 points to 9,106, while the CASPI rose 111 points to finish at 14,691, although turnover at the port city bourse remained modest at Tk8.71 crore.

Passenger traffic through Hazrat Shahjalal International Airport continued to grow in 2025, even as overstretched infrastructure, service shortcomings and high airfares left travellers grappling with mounting difficulties.

The airport handled 12.72 million passengers in 2025, up from 12.5 million in 2024 and 11.7 million in 2023, according to airport data. The increase of around 2,23,000 passengers, or nearly 1.8%, was driven mainly by international travel, with Bangladesh sending 1.13 million workers abroad during the year.

Of the total passengers last year, 10.312 million travelled on international routes, while 2.411 million flew domestically, underlining the airport's heavy dependence on overseas traffic.

However, the steady growth has further exposed long-standing infrastructure limitations. Originally designed to handle around 8 million passengers annually, the airport is now operating at nearly double its intended capacity.

Officials acknowledge that the rising passenger load is placing immense pressure on operations, particularly during peak travel seasons.

Despite repeated assurances, the much-anticipated third terminal remains non-operational due to unresolved issues over the appointment of an operator. The civil aviation ministry has left the matter to the next elected government.

Once fully operational, the terminal is expected to increase capacity to over 20 million passengers a year and significantly improve passenger flow and service delivery. Until then, congestion remains a daily reality.

In the early days of the interim government, Expatriate Welfare Adviser Asif Nazrul announced VIP services for migrant workers. In practice, this has largely been limited to opening two lounges – one inside the terminal offering rest areas and subsidised meals, and another in the multi-storey car park.

Progresses

Despite these difficulties, some improvements have been noted by Tasneem Siddiqui, acting executive director of the Refugee and Migratory Movement Research Unit (RMMRU).

She said harassment of migrant workers at airports has declined somewhat in 2025 compared to previous years. She attributed the improvement to the round-the-clock presence of magistrates, a hotline for complaints and the introduction of body cameras for baggage handlers.

"These initiatives have brought positive change, particularly in passenger movement and baggage retrieval," she said, while stressing that reducing travel costs and ensuring dignity for migrant workers should remain priorities. "There is still a lot of work to be done."

Civil Aviation Adviser Sk Bashir Uddin did not respond to repeated attempts by TBS to contact him.

Airport Executive Director Group Captain Ragib Samad said authorities are trying to provide the best possible services within existing capacity, describing problems such as traffic congestion and the trolley crisis as temporary. He expressed hope that the third terminal would resolve many of the current challenges.

Airfares remain high

Despite government directives aimed at curbing ticket prices, airfares remain prohibitively high. Travel agents report that tickets to Middle Eastern destinations have surged from Tk35,000-40,000 to as high as Tk75,000-80,000.

Mahmudul Haque Piaru, a local travel agent, criticised the implementation of government measures, noting that a persistent seat scarcity remains the "core problem." With foreign carriers controlling 66% of the international market, experts argue that strengthening Biman Bangladesh Airlines is essential to restoring price stability.

Didarul Haque, another travel agent, echoed similar concerns. He said while some irregularities had declined due to restrictions on block and group tickets, the core problem of seat scarcity remains unresolved.

Congestion and confusion

Passenger suffering often begins before entering the terminal. Long traffic tailbacks at airport entry points have become routine, with outbound passengers frequently missing check-in deadlines due to severe congestion.

Travellers also complain about inadequate directional signage, leading some to mistakenly enter arrival or domestic terminals while searching for international departures, further aggravating traffic chaos.

Airport authorities attribute much of the congestion to stringent security checks at driveways and canopy areas. Officials also cite the prolonged construction of an underpass near the Hajj Camp, a project ongoing for nearly two years and is expected to take at least another year to complete.

Ragib Samad said the rigorous screening is "extremely urgent" to ensure safety at the airport's driveways and canopy areas.

Trolley shortages and flight disruptions

Inside the terminal, passengers face persistent trolley shortages, particularly during winter. International travellers have reported waiting up to two hours for a luggage trolley.

Airport authorities deny an actual shortage, explaining that winter fog disrupts flight schedules, causing 13 to 15 international flights to land almost simultaneously in the early morning. With only eight baggage belts at Dhaka airport, this results in severe congestion and delays in trolley turnover.

Congestion has been compounded by the downgrade of the Instrument Landing System (ILS) following damage to runway lights on 29 October. The airport is currently operating under ILS Category I, requiring a minimum visibility of 1,200 metres, compared with 500–750 metres under Category II.

Dense winter fog has therefore led to frequent delays and diversions to Kolkata, Sylhet, or Chattogram. When weather conditions improve, returning flights often arrive at once, overwhelming terminal operations.

Idle e-gates

Meanwhile, 44 e-gates installed at Dhaka and Chattogram airports at a cost of Tk34.55 crore remain largely unused. Immigration officials say passengers using the e-gates must still return to manual counters for visa verification, negating any time savings. Software integration problems have forced authorities to keep most of the gates closed.

Saudi Arabia has taken regulatory steps affecting religious tourism and wildlife management in early February 2026, alongside a range of regional and international developments.

The Saudi Ministry of Hajj and Umrah has suspended contracts with around 1,800 foreign Umrah travel agencies, nearly one-third of the approximately 5,800 agencies operating in the sector. The move followed a performance review that found shortcomings in service quality and non-compliance with approved standards, says Arab News.

The affected agencies have been given a 10-day grace period to rectify their status and meet classification requirements in order to have their contracts reinstated. The suspension applies only to the issuance of new visas, while pilgrims who already hold valid visas or confirmed reservations will continue to receive services as planned. The ministry said the measure is intended to protect the rights of Umrah performers and ensure reliable and continuous services.

Separately, Saudi Arabia's National Center for Wildlife announced the conclusion of the 2025–2026 hunting season on 31 January. The season, which began in September 2025, was regulated under updated mechanisms based on research and international best practices. Authorities said the framework was designed to support the sustainable use of natural resources and maintain ecological balance in line with the Kingdom's Environmental Law.

In sports developments, Spain's Carlos Alcaraz defeated Serbia's Novak Djokovic to win his first Australian Open title. Riyadh also hosted a WWE Royal Rumble event, with Roman Reigns and Liv Morgan emerging as winners.

In religious services, the Grand Mosque introduced a dedicated Ramadan plan for women, while Indonesia announced it would deploy a record number of women officers to assist Hajj pilgrims.

On the international front, Pakistan condemned what it described as Israel's latest ceasefire violations and called for advance food imports ahead of Ramadan to reduce pressure on its ports.

In the economic sector, Saudi Arabia's Housing Ministry said it offered more than 21,000 investment opportunities in 2025, with contract values exceeding $3.35 billion.

The Bangladesh Bank on the direction from a member of the central bank's board of directors has sent letters to banks, seeking information on agricultural loans of up to Tk10,000.

"As per an urgent direction of honourable member of the Bangladesh Bank's board of director [conveyed by director (ACD-1) sir], you are requested to send the total principal, interest/profit and outstanding figure (as on 31 December 2025) of the agricultural and rural loan/investments amounting up to Tk10,000," the letter said.

The letter, sent through email on Thursday after office hours, instructed banks to submit the information by 12 noon on Sunday.

Arief Hossain Khan, spokesperson and Executive Director of Bangladesh Bank, confirmed that the request for data on loans was made at the demand of a board member.

A senior official from the relevant BB's Agricultural Credit Department told The Business Standard, "I was ordered by a director to request information on agricultural loans below Tk10,000, and I sent emails to the banks accordingly."

When asked who the letter referred to as a member of the board, the official. Requesting anonymity, identified him as Rashed Al Mahmud Titumir.

Titumir is a professor at Dhaka University's Development Studies Department and chairperson of the private research organisation, Unnayan Onneshan.

Multiple attempts to contact Titumir for comment were unsuccessful.

Bangladesh Bank Governor Ahsan H Mansur told TBS: "I am not aware whether banks were asked for such data; I will look into the matter."

Several managing directors of several public and private banks said that while the Bangladesh Bank routinely seeks information, the process in this instance was unusual.

An MD of a private bank told TBS, "Typically, the central bank requests data in a standard procedure, but this time the request came by email on very short notice."

Sources say the normal protocol for requesting data from banks was not followed. Senior officials of the central bank or the Board did not discuss the request in any meetings. Usually, such requests are accompanied by a note presented by the relevant department to the executive director, deputy governor, or sometimes the governor. This process was not observed in this case.

An MD of a state-owned bank said, "Our bank has over 30,000 such borrowers, with nearly Tk50 crore currently outstanding. We already face difficulties in collecting repayments. If a political decision is imposed to waive these loans, it will be extremely challenging, as these are depositors' funds and cannot be written off arbitrarily."

An MD of a first-generation private bank, speaking on condition of anonymity, said: "If the practice of loan waivers continues, ignoring subsidies and other agricultural support, it is worth considering how much marginal farmers will actually benefit. Bangladesh Bank has long displayed such unprofessional behaviour, and especially since 5 August, its bias towards a particular political party has repeatedly emerged."

India's budget for the fiscal year 2026-27 presented in parliament today (1 February) slashed developmental aid to Bangladesh by 50%, amid a sharp downturn in bilateral ties post-Sheikh Hasina's ouster from power.

This marks the steepest reduction in regional aid, triggered by a diplomatic freeze, allegations of attacks on minorities, and Dhaka's tilt toward Pakistan.

For the next fiscal beginning in April, the budget's allocation for Bangladesh has been pegged at Rs60 crore as against Rs120 crore for FY26. In fact, the revised estimate of the aid to Bangladesh in FY26 budget has been pegged at Rs34.48 crore as ties between the two sides remained frosty.

Bhutan was allocated the largest share of Rs2,288 crore as development aid in the budget for FY27 followed by Rs800 crore to Nepal and Rs550 crore each to the Maldives and Mauritius.

Bhutan remains the largest recipient of Indian aid and sees its allocation rise by Rs138 crore to Rs2,288 crore from Rs2,150 crore in the previous budget of FY26.

The aid for the Maldives saw a drop of Rs50 crore to Rs500 crore while the same to Mauritius saw a 10% rise. Myanmar's allocation falls 14% to Rs300 crore.

In continuation with India's warming up of relationship with Afghanistan, an allocation of Rs150 crore has been made in the new budget to that country. The allocation to Afghanistan for FY26 was Rs100 crore.

Sri Lanka has been allocated Rs400 crore and Rs300 crore was set aside for Myanmar in the budget for FY27. The aid for Afghanistan, Sri Lanka and Nepal saw a marginal increase in allocation.

In a break from the last few years, no allocation has been made in the new budget for the Chabahar port project in Iran. In the budget last year, an amount of Rs100 crore was set aside for the project and the amount increased to Rs400 crore in the revised estimate.

The budget allocated a total of Rs22,118 crore to the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) as against the current fiscal's budget estimate of Rs20,516 crore and revised estimate of Rs21,742 crore.

The total overseas development partnership portfolio for FY26 was pegged at Rs6,997 crore, which is little over 31% of the allocation made to the MEA.

Out of the total allocation under the overseas development partnership portfolio, Rs4,548 crore has been earmarked for immediate neighbours.

The amount is expected to be spent towards implementation of a variety of initiatives ranging from large infrastructure projects such as hydroelectric plants, power transmission lines, housing, roads, bridges to small-scale grass-roots level community development projects, according to officials.

India's total foreign grants hit Rs5,685 crore in FY26, according to budget papers.

Despite a slowdown in the broader economy, value-added tax collection from large companies, particularly in tobacco and beverages, recorded strong growth in the first half of the 2025-26 fiscal year.

By contrast, VAT from sectors such as banking, mobile phone operators, certain construction materials and consumer goods remained modest, while revenue from the cement sector fell by nearly 20%.

VAT growth is measured between corresponding periods of two fiscal years. In FY25, collections were subdued amid mass uprisings and political instability, creating a low base for comparison.

Experts said higher tax rates, particularly on tobacco and beverages, combined with the low base, largely explain the strong growth. They added that the low base should have produced broader-based gains. The fact that this has not happened across most sectors suggests the economic slowdown has not yet eased.

Business leaders echoed that view, saying investment and consumption remain cautious as they wait for an elected government and greater political stability to restore confidence.

26% VAT growth from 109 LTUs

According to the Large Taxpayers Unit–VAT (LTU-VAT) under the National Board of Revenue (NBR), VAT collection from 109 LTU-listed companies rose by around 26% year-on-year during July-December. During the period, total VAT collection stood at Tk59,000 crore, of which just over Tk40,000 crore came from these 109 companies.

This means more than two-thirds of total revenue came from LTUs, with over half generated by three tobacco firms, almost entirely from two British American Tobacco Bangladesh entities.

LTU data show that VAT collected from three cigarette companies stood at Tk21,231 crore between July and December, up Tk6,783 crore, or 47%, from the same period a year earlier.

A senior NBR VAT official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told The Business Standard that the cigarette sector was a key driver of revenue growth, aided by increased monitoring by the LTU-VAT office.

The official said the rise was driven by increases in tobacco prices and supplementary duty, along with policy changes. The same factors applied to the beverage sector, he added.

However, the official said this pace of growth is unlikely to continue in the coming months.

British American Tobacco Bangladesh did not respond to requests for comment. However, its latest financial statements show cigarette stick sales fell by about 28% year-on-year between July and September, even as VAT payments increased.

Pharma 23%, beverage 34% growth

According to LTU-VAT data, the top VAT-paying sectors after tobacco include four mobile phone operators, five gas distributors, 18 pharmaceutical firms, 17 banks, electricity distributors, and companies in soap, water supply, print and varnish, and nine cement firms.

VAT collection from four beverage companies rose by 34% in the first half of the fiscal year, while the pharmaceutical sector recorded growth of about 23%.

Md Zakir Hossain, secretary general of the Bangladesh Association of Pharmaceutical Industries, said July to December is typically a strong growth period for pharmaceutical companies, describing the rise as normal, but added that the rate would not be sustained in the coming months.

Cement VAT drops 20%

Sectors with weaker growth blamed the continued economic slowdown. VAT collection from the cement sector has been declining for the past 18 months and fell by 20% year-on-year in the first half.

Md Shahidullah, former vice-president of the Bangladesh Cement Manufacturers Association, said falling demand was the main reason, citing a sharp slowdown in infrastructure development that also reduced demand for steel.

He said momentum could return after elections and the formation of a new government, but meaningful recovery is unlikely within the next six months and may only materialise in the next fiscal year.

3.46% VAT rise from banks

VAT collection from the banking sector rose by just 3.46% during the period.

Syed Mahbubur Rahman, managing director and CEO of Mutual Trust Bank, said the low growth reflected service disruptions at several banks and declining deposits.

"While a few banks are doing well, most are not," he said, adding that economic recovery would depend on a credible election and a smooth political transition.

"Once momentum returns to the economy, revenue collection will also rise," he said.

Snehasish Barua, a chartered accountant and director of SMAC Advisory Limited, told TBS that because last year's VAT collection was weak, stronger growth should have been recorded under normal conditions.

"The absence of that growth in several sectors shows the economy has not regained the expected momentum, while growth in some sectors is largely driven by higher taxes," he said.

The interim government is preparing to finalise two significant trade agreements with the United States and Japan before the national polls, aimed at securing greater market access and protecting export revenue following its upcoming graduation from least developed country (LDC) status.

Speaking to The Daily Star yesterday, Commerce Secretary Mahbubur Rahman confirmed that the Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) with Japan will be signed on February 6 in Tokyo, while discussions continue regarding the format of the US trade deal originally scheduled for February 9 in Washington.

Given that the 13th general election is set for February 12, leaving minimal working days, the US agreement may proceed virtually instead.

The anticipated US deal centres on duty-free market access for Bangladeshi garments manufactured using American cotton. Under the proposed terms, garment exporters who can demonstrate that 60-70 percent of their products are made with US-sourced materials such as cotton will be exempt from the 20 percent tariff on those components.

Secretary Rahman also suggested that the Donald Trump administration is considering reducing the reciprocal tariff rate from its current 20 percent level, though the exact reduction percentage remains undetermined. This concession follows months of bilateral negotiations.

Meanwhile, Commerce Adviser Sk Bashir Uddin and the ministry’s trade negotiation team are travelling to Tokyo this week to sign what will be Bangladesh’s first full-fledged trade agreement with a major partner.

The advisory council approved the EPA on January 22, establishing a framework for preferential trade benefits after Bangladesh transitions from LDC status in November.

“We are ready to sign the EPA with Japan on February 6, according to our previous announcement,” Rahman said.

The agreement provides substantial market access benefits. Once it comes into effect, Japan will grant duty-free entry to 7,379 products representing 97 percent of Bangladesh’s export basket, including key garment items. Bangladesh will reciprocate by offering duty-free access to 1,039 Japanese products, phased in over 18 years.

Beyond goods, the EPA includes provisions for trade in services. Bangladesh has committed to opening 97 sub-sectors across 12 service categories to Japan, while Japan will open 120 sub-sectors to Bangladesh. This framework is expected to encourage Japanese investment and facilitate technology transfer.

Japan currently stands as Bangladesh’s largest Asian export market, with shipments approaching $2 billion annually, predominantly driven by garment demand. Last month, Japan confirmed it would extend duty-free market access for Bangladesh for three additional years through 2029.

These trade agreements represent critical components of Bangladesh’s strategy to maintain export competitiveness after losing LDC privileges.

Research estimates suggest the country could face export losses of up to $8 billion annually once LDC-related benefits expire, making preferential trade arrangements with major partners essential for sustaining economic growth.

Bashundhara Paper Mills, a listed company on the stock exchanges, incurred a Tk249 crore loss in the first half of the current fiscal year due to raw material shortages and price hikes, as well as rising utility and borrowing costs.

In last fiscal year, it faced a blow with incurring loss of Tk330 crore.

During the July to December, Bashundhara Paper Mills reported a loss per share of Tk14.34, which was Tk5.84 at the same time of the previous fiscal year.

In H1 of FY25, it incurred a loss of Tk101 crore.

Explaining the sharp fall in earnings per share (EPS), the company said operating profitability declined due to raw material shortages, higher utility expenses, a steep increase in raw material prices, and rising borrowing costs following interest rate hikes.

"As a consequence, the company's EPS decreased significantly," it said.

According to its half-yearly financial statements, the company's revenue plunged by 72% to Tk113 crore in the first half (H1) of FY26, down from Tk410.47 crore in the same period of the previous fiscal year—a decline of about Tk297 crore.

The report showed that its finance cost soared by 31% to Tk204 crore. As of December, long-term loans of Bashundhara Paper Mills stood at Tk2,118 crore, and short-term borrowings Tk581.85 crore.

In the second quarter, its revenue plunged to Tk81 crore, and incurred a loss of Tk134.59 crore, which was Tk143.22 crore and Tk70 crore respectively.

The net operating cash flow per share increased to Tk6.90 during the July to December against Tk5.41 at the same time of the previous fiscal year while its net asset value per share declined to Tk43.52, which was Tk57.82 as of 30 June 2025, its report showed.

The company said cash flow improved primarily due to a decrease in payments made to suppliers and other operating creditors, which positively impacted the company's overall operating cash position.

US President Donald Trump on Saturday said India will buy Venezuelan oil, helping to replace some of the Russian oil that the world’s third-biggest oil importer buys.

“We’ve already made that deal, the concept of the deal,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One as he traveled to his vacation home in Florida from Washington.

Reuters reported on Friday that the United States has told Delhi it could soon resume purchases of Venezuelan oil to help replace imports of Russian oil, citing three people familiar with the matter. India stopped buying oil from Caracas last year after Trump in March imposed a 25 percent tariff on countries buying Venezuelan oil.

In his comments on Saturday, Trump said India would buy Venezuelan oil instead of Iranian crude. However, New Delhi stopped loading oil from Iran in 2019 due to US sanctions over Tehran’s nuclear programme.

Indian refiners turned to US oil to make up for the loss of Iranian supply, then curbed US purchases and became the top buyer of Russian seaborne oil sold at a discount after Western nations imposed sanctions on Moscow for its invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Trump in August doubled duties on imports from India to 50 percent to pressure New Delhi to stop buying Russian oil, and earlier this month said the rate could rise again if it did not curb its purchases.

However, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signaled in January that the additional 25 percent tariff on Indian goods could be removed, given what he called a sharp reduction in Indian imports of Russian oil.

The US government this week lifted some sanctions on Venezuela’s oil industry to make it easier for US companies to sell its crude oil.

Trump’s comments on Saturday appeared to reflect continued improvement in US-India relations, which have been tense throughout the past year.

Trump also said China could make a deal with the US to buy Venezuelan oil.

“China is welcome to come in and would make a great deal on oil,” Trump said, without providing any details.