Shares of Bay Leasing and Investment Limited surged yesterday to the day's upper circuit after the non-bank financial institution reported a sharp reduction in losses for the July-September quarter of 2025, signalling improvement in its quarterly performance despite long-term challenges.

According to a price sensitive statement filed with the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE), the company's consolidated net loss declined by 80% year-on-year to Tk4.79 crore during the third quarter of 2025.

In the same quarter a year earlier, the company had posted a higher loss, with its loss per share narrowing to Tk0.34 from Tk1.67 over the period, reflecting better cost management.

The quarterly improvement was supported by a modest rise in interest income and a sharp fall in funding costs. Interest income edged up by 1% to Tk15.23 crore, while interest expenses on deposits and other borrowings dropped by 36% to Tk22.53 crore.

Market participants viewed the decline in interest expenses as a positive development, especially at a time when many non-bank financial institutions continue to struggle with high funding costs and asset quality issues.

Following the disclosure, the company's share price rose by 10% to Tk4.40, hitting the daily circuit breaker on the Dhaka bourse.

Traders said the stock attracted speculative buying interest on expectations that the company may be gradually stabilising its operations after several years of sustained losses.

However, the broader financial picture remains challenging. In the first nine months from January to September 2025, Bay Leasing's consolidated net loss widened by 31% to Tk47 crore, mainly due to heavy losses incurred during the first half of the year. As a result, its consolidated loss per share stood at Tk3.35 at the end of the nine-month period.

The company's balance sheet continues to reflect significant stress, with accumulated negative retained earnings amounting to Tk658.85 crore. This dragged its consolidated net asset value to a negative Tk28.55 per share, underscoring the depth of its financial difficulties.

The company has not declared any dividend since 2020, when it last paid a 10% cash dividend. Since then, the company has remained in the red every year.

Listed on the stock exchanges in 2009, Bay Leasing's shareholding structure shows sponsors and directors holding 18.30% of shares, while institutional investors own 23.98% and general investors hold the remaining 57.72%, according to its latest shareholding report.

Bangladesh's capital market is showing signs of recovery, but its long-term growth will depend on post-election political stability, structural reforms, and sustained regulatory improvements, the central bank said yesterday.

In its monetary policy statement for January–June 2026, Bangladesh Bank (BB) said the market exhibited an upward trajectory in the first half of FY26 despite occasional fluctuations, driven by a sharp increase in turnover that signals a revival of market momentum.

The DSEX index, the benchmark of the capital market, rose 0.6% to 4,865 points at the end of December 2025, up from 4,838 points in June.

The index gained further ground in the following weeks, crossing the 5,200 mark in early February 2026. Average daily turnover reached Tk650 crore in H1 FY26, up from Tk472 crore a year earlier, reflecting renewed investor confidence, BB said.

"These positive developments reflect revitalized market momentum, supported by ongoing reforms and a more favorable macroeconomic environment," the central bank said.

To further modernize the capital market, the government is pursuing measures including reducing state shareholdings in multinational companies, encouraging local firm listings, preventing market manipulation, and providing tax incentives.

BB also highlighted that the introduction of commodity exchanges and blockchain-based back-office systems is expected to improve transparency and bolster investor confidence. Coordinated efforts by the Ministry of Finance and other stakeholders are seen as essential to deepen financial markets and develop a more efficient debt market.

Regulatory Reforms to Boost Stability

The central bank noted recent amendments by the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC), which aim to enhance market stability, build investor confidence, and support long-term development. Among these, the Margin Rules 2025 strengthen risk management in margin trading, while proposed updates to IPO, Mutual Fund, and Public Issue Rules are intended to improve transparency and governance.

BSEC has also introduced faster investor dispute resolution mechanisms, established a Shariah Advisory Council to expand Islamic capital market products, and adjusted compliance timelines for brokers to reduce market stress, BB said.

Bond Market Developments

In the secondary market, a total of 232 government treasury bonds were actively traded until December 2025. During the month, the government raised Tk240 billion through six investment Sukuk, enabling banks and non-bank financial institutions including Islamic banks to meet statutory liquidity requirements and participate more actively in monetary management.

To strengthen the secondary market and establish a market-based yield curve, Bangladesh Bank has mandated that Primary Dealers provide two-way price quotes for Treasury bonds within the first hour of each business day, with compliance expected by 31 January 2026.

China’s official gold reserves rose in January despite an increase in gold prices, extending a 15th consecutive month of buying streak, as the country continued to diversify and optimize its international reserves, official data showed on Saturday.

Gold reserves stood at 74.19 million ounces at the end of January, up 40,000 ounces from a month earlier, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange said on Saturday.

The latest gain followed a cumulative net increase of 860,000 ounces in 2025, after the central bank resumed gold buying in November 2024.

Wang Qing, chief macroeconomic analyst at Orient Golden Credit Rating, said the continued, measured accumulation amid record-high global gold prices signals an effort to improve the composition of China’s official reserves.

By the end of 2025, gold accounted for about 9.7 percent of China’s official reserves — still below the global average of around 15 percent, Wang said, adding that short-term gold price volatility is unlikely to materially affect China’s central bank’s overall trend of boosting gold reserves.

The World Gold Council said in a recent report that while the central bank may have tactically adjusted the pace of gold purchases as prices surged, China’s continued buying reflects a strategic push toward greater diversification of its expanding international reserves.

Overall inflation in Bangladesh rose to 8.58 percent in January, marking the third consecutive monthly increase, as food prices continued to accelerate ahead of Ramadan, according to the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS).

Food inflation climbed to 8.29 percent last month, rising nearly 0.6 percentage points from 7.71 percent in December, intensifying pressure on household budgets as families prepare for the holy month, when demand for essential commodities typically increases. Food inflation stood at 7. 36 percent in November.

The surge in food prices comes at a particularly challenging time for consumers, with Ramadan expected to begin in less than two weeks.

Non-food inflation, however, showed some easing, falling to 8.81 percent in January from 9.13 percent a month earlier, reflecting lower price pressures in areas including clothing, transport, housing and other services.

Overall inflation has followed an upward trajectory as well in recent months, increasing from 8.17 percent in October to 8.29 percent in November, and 8.49 percent in December.

With the expansion of its fleet, Bangladesh Shipping Corporation (BSC), a state-owned ocean-going vessel management authority, witnessed a year-on-year 21% jumps in revenue, and 7% in profit in the second quarter (Q2) of the current fiscal year.

The corporation's board approved its quarterly and half-yearly financial statements for the July-December period today (8 February).

According to its price-sensitive information, in Q2, Shipping Corp's revenue surged to Tk176.91 crore while its profit grew to Tk57.81 crore with an earnings per share (EPS) of Tk3.79. It, in the first quarter of the fiscal year, witnessed a slump by 13% in its profit as its income tax expenses surged significantly.

Regarding the growth in its financials, the corporation said its revenue for the second quarter of 2025-26 increased due to the increase in freight rate in the international shipping sector.

In this context, BSC's net earnings per share increased compared to the previous year, it said.

In a strategic move to grow its presence in the shipping sector and boost government revenue income, the corporation, for the first time, purchased two new ocean-going vessels entirely with its own funds, investing approximately Tk900 crore.

The two China-made ships were purchased from an American company named Helenic Dry Bulk LLC at $77 million last year through an international tender

Of these, one vessel, Banglar Progoti, began its commercial operations in October last year, and the revenue generated from it was reflected in the half-yearly financial. The second, Banglar Nabojatra, ship joined its fleet in early February as the corporation received it from its supplier on 29 January.

BSC Managing Director Commodore Mahmudul Malek told the Business Standard, "Revenue and profit grew due to starting commercial operation of new ships at the fleet of the corporation as well as increasing the chartering fares."

Profit dips 5.42% in H1 as FRDs encashment

Despite growth in profit in Q2, Shipping Corp's profit in the first half declined by 5.42% but its revenue continued to grow by 11%, its financial statement showed.

During the July to December period, its profit grew to Tk136.23 crore with an EPS of Tk8.93 and its revenue grew to Tk330 crore. At the same time of the previous fiscal year, its revenue in H1 was Tk196.8 crore and profit Tk144.04 crore.

When asked about the decline in H1 profit, Commodore Mahmudul Malek told TBS that year-on-year profit in the half-year dipped mainly due to the encashment of FDRs to acquire new ships. Both vessels have joined the fleet and are generating revenue.

"We previously earned interest income from FDRs, but we encashed them to invest Tk900 crore in acquiring ships. As a result, interest income declined, which reduced overall profit," he said.

He expressed hope that the company's profitability will increase in the coming quarters as the new ships continue operating in the fleet.

Earlier, in FY25, the corporation reported its highest-ever net profit since its inception in 1972 in its 54-year history, with a profit of Tk306.56 crore – up 23% year-on-year – and revenue of Tk798.28 crore, up 33.39%.

Seeing growth opportunities in the global shipping industry, it decided to expand its fleet by acquiring one new ship per year until 2030 using its own funds, supported by record profits and a strengthened financial base.

Historically, the corporation acquired a total of 44 ships; now it owns seven ships in its fleet, with the addition of two new ships. Of the six ships, five were acquired in 2018 and 2019 from China under government-to-government contracts for Tk1,500 crore.

One ship, Banglar Samriddhi, was hit by a rocket while anchored in the Alvia port channel of Ukraine on 2 March 2022 during the Russia-Ukraine war. After getting an insurance claim, the corporation abandoned the ship.

India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Malaysian counterpart Anwar Ibrahim renewed pledges on Sunday to bolster trade and explore potential collaborations in semiconductors, defence and other fields.

Modi is on a two-day visit to the Southeast Asian nation, his first since the two countries elevated ties to a comprehensive strategic partnership in August 2024.

Anwar said the partnership included deep collaborations in multiple fields, including trade and investments, food security, defence, healthcare and tourism.

"It's really comprehensive, and we believe that we can advance this and execute in a speedy manner with the commitment of our both governments," he told a press conference after hosting Modi at his official residence in the administrative capital Putrajaya.

Following their meeting, Anwar and Modi also witnessed the exchange of 11 cooperation agreements, including on semiconductors, disaster management and peacekeeping.

Anwar said India and Malaysia would continue efforts to promote the use of local-currency settlement for cross-border activities and expressed hope that bilateral trade would surpass last year's $18.6 billion.

Malaysia will also support India's efforts to open a consulate in Malaysia's Sabah state on Borneo island, Anwar said.

The Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) has approved the transfer of 30 lakh shares of Genex Infosys PLC held by its director Nilofar Imam to City Bank PLC, according to a disclosure issued by the bourse.

The transfer will be executed outside the trading system of the exchange and is scheduled to be completed within the next 30 working days, effective from 3 February.

The share transfer will take place under Regulation 47(1)(d) of the Dhaka Stock Exchange (Listing) Regulations, 2015, which allows certain transactions to be conducted outside the trading platform. The provision permits off-market transfers in specific circumstances, including cases related to confiscation or loan default, subject to compliance with applicable laws and regulatory approval.

Genex Infosys' share price edged down slightly following the announcement. Today, the company's shares closed 0.38% lower at Tk26.20 on the DSE.

This is not the first instance of sponsor-level share transfers involving Genex Infosys in recent weeks. Earlier, on 18 January, another director of the company, Chowdhury Fazle Imam, transferred 8.07 lakh shares, while a corporate director Oracle Services Limited transferred 9.92 lakh shares to Dhaka Bank, also under the same regulatory provision.

Meanwhile, Genex Infosys' financial performance showed mixed trends in the first half of the ongoing fiscal year. For the July–December period of FY26, the company's consolidated revenue declined by 6% year-on-year to Tk96.96 crore.

However, its consolidated net profit rose by 16% to Tk17.59 crore, supported by improved cost management and operational efficiency. As a result, consolidated earnings per share stood at Tk1.46 at the end of the first half of the fiscal year.

According to the latest shareholding structure, sponsors and directors collectively hold 30.05% of Genex Infosys' shares, while institutional investors own 18.71%. Foreign investors account for 0.09%, and the remaining 51.15% shares are held by general public investors.

Earlier, the company recommended a 1% cash dividend for the fiscal year 2024–25, payable only to general shareholders, excluding sponsors and directors.

Private sector activity continued to expand in January, albeit at a slower pace, as the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) eased to 53.9 from the previous month.

The moderation signals sustained growth momentum, though at a more measured rate amid softer global conditions.

Released on Sunday, the latest PMI reading showed expansion across agriculture, manufacturing and services, while construction returned to growth after contracting in December, underscoring a broadly resilient domestic economy.

Agriculture recorded its fifth consecutive month of expansion, although momentum weakened.

New business and overall activity continued to grow, but employment and input costs declined. Order backlogs in the agricultural sector also remained in contraction, albeit at a slower pace.

The manufacturing stayed in expansion for the 17th straight month, though growth softened compared to December last.

New orders, factory output, imports, input prices and supplier delivery times all increased, even as export receipts remained subdued.

Of concern, new export orders, input purchases, finished goods inventories and employment declined, while order backlogs returned to expansion.

The construction sector moved back into expansion after contracting in the previous month. Growth was recorded in new business, construction activity and input costs, while employment and order backlogs continued to fall.

The services sector, which contributes more than 50 per cent to GDP, marked its 16th consecutive month of expansion, with activity accelerating in January.

New business, overall activity, employment, input costs and order backlogs all posted gains.

"Overall, the latest PMI readings indicate that the economy experienced slower expansion, with weak global supply chain recovery and cautious order placement weighing on manufacturing exports," said Dr M Masrur Reaz, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Policy Exchange Bangladesh.

"The agriculture sector also showed signs of slowdown following the late autumn paddy harvests," he added.

However, Dr Reaz noted that continued expansion in the future business index across all key sectors points to sustained optimism in the period ahead, particularly following the elections.

Bangladesh is set to sign a reciprocal tariff agreement with the United States today in Washington, aiming to address trade imbalances and secure continued access to the American market for Bangladeshi exports.

Commerce Adviser Sk Bashir Uddin and Secretary Mahbubur Rahman will participate in the signing ceremony virtually from Dhaka, while a delegation led by Khadija Naznin, additional secretary and head of the WTO wing, will represent the country in person at the US capital.

Bashir yesterday said details of the agreement would be disclosed after the signing ceremony.

The commerce adviser has already signed the document in Dhaka, which has been carried to Washington to be exchanged with the signature of US Trade Representative (USTR) Jamieson Greer.

The agreement comes in the context of the US decision to impose reciprocal tariffs on goods from several countries, including Bangladesh, in an effort to reduce its trade deficit. Since August last year, Bangladeshi exports to the US have been subject to a 20% reciprocal tariff.

Bangladesh exports goods worth about $8 billion annually to the US market, while US exports to Bangladesh amount to about $2 billion, resulting in a significant trade gap.

Officials said the agreement would include commitments by Bangladesh to increase imports from the US, particularly wheat, edible oil, fuel and cotton. The government has also decided to purchase 25 aircraft from US manufacturer Boeing as part of broader trade balancing efforts.

Speaking at a press conference at the Secretariat yesterday, the commerce adviser said the decision to procure 25 Boeing aircraft was aimed at maintaining the continuity of Bangladeshi exports to the US market.

The purchase is expected to cost between Tk30,000 crore and Tk35,000 crore, with payments to be made over 20 years.

He noted that the US had initially proposed the purchase of 47 aircraft, but the government opted for 25 for the time being. The interim administration is finalising the agreement to ease the burden on the next elected government, he added.

The adviser said further details of the reciprocal tariff agreement, including its specific terms and conditions, would be disclosed after the signing ceremony.

Referring to ongoing negotiations on tariff reductions, he said that the US had initially imposed a 37% tariff on Bangladeshi exports, which was brought down to 20% through discussions. Efforts are continuing to reduce tariffs on Bangladesh's main export item – readymade garments – to zero, he added.

Bashir observed that Bangladesh had been the only country whose draft agreement details were previously made public, a development he said had complicated earlier negotiations.

Had the details not been disclosed, he believed, it might have been possible to secure even lower tariff concessions.

Bangladesh Bank is set to announce its latest monetary policy today, with the policy repo rate expected to remain unchanged at 10% as inflation continues to stay well above the central bank's target.

The policy will be unveiled at 11am by Bangladesh Bank Governor Ahsan H Mansur and will cover the six-month period from January to June.

This will be the interim government's third monetary policy announcement, and officials indicate that the central bank will continue with a contractionary stance to rein in persistent inflationary pressures.

Inflation rose for the third consecutive month in January, reaching its highest level in eight months. According to data released by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics yesterday, the overall inflation rate climbed to 8.58% in January, up from 8.49% in December, 8.29% in November and 8.17% in September.

The policy repo rate – the rate at which Bangladesh Bank lends to commercial banks – is expected to be kept unchanged as inflation has yet to fall to the targeted 6.5% set for FY26 under the previous monetary policy.

A senior Bangladesh Bank official said the primary objective of the central bank remains controlling inflation, which is why the upcoming monetary policy will continue to be contractionary.

Another senior official told The Business Standard that businesses have been pressuring the central bank to reduce the policy rate, arguing that high interest rates have made borrowing costly and constrained business operations.

"However, inflation remains elevated. Under the current circumstances, there is no plan to change the policy rate," the official said, adding that a rate cut could be considered in the next policy cycle if inflation shows a sustained decline.

Officials also said maintaining stability in the exchange rate will be a key focus going forward, as volatility in the dollar rate tends to push up import costs and domestic prices.

The Bangladesh Bank announces its monetary policy every six months.

After the interim government took office in August 2024, the central bank adopted a fully contractionary monetary policy and has maintained it since.

Meanwhile, credit growth in the private sector remains subdued. The target for private sector credit growth was set at 7.20% for December 2025, but actual growth stood at 6.10% at the end of December – its lowest level in two decades.

Bankers say weak investment sentiment following political changes has led businesses to scale back borrowing from banks, contributing to the slowdown in credit growth.

Bangladesh has expressed interest in purchasing railway rolling stock, including freight wagons and passenger coaches, from Pakistan, citing competitive pricing and manufacturing capability, officials said.

A two-member Bangladeshi delegation recently visited Pakistan Railways facilities, including the carriage factory in Islamabad and the Mughalpura Workshop in Lahore, to assess production capacity and technical standards. The delegation included Farhad Islam, secretary for international organisations and consular affairs, and Mohammad Iqbal Hussain Khan, Bangladesh's high commissioner to Pakistan, says Dawn.

During the visit, Pakistan Railways officials briefed the delegation on technical capabilities, ongoing projects and manufacturing processes, including locomotive maintenance and rehabilitation. The Bangladeshi officials conveyed appreciation for Pakistan's technical expertise and professional competence, according to officials familiar with the discussions.

Bangladesh has traditionally sourced railway rolling stock from India but is now exploring Pakistan as a cost-effective alternative. Pakistan has previously exported rolling stock to Bangladesh, with deliveries dating back to the 1980s.

Pakistan Railways currently supplies coaches and freight wagons to several countries, including Sri Lanka, Nepal, Chile and Argentina, reflecting what officials describe as modern, indigenous manufacturing capabilities.

Pakistan's Railways Minister Hanif Abbasi has indicated an intention to advance bilateral cooperation in the railway sector. Officials said the next phase of engagement will involve a detailed technical evaluation by railway experts from Bangladesh.

Workers and employees at Chattogram Port have suspended their indefinite strike over the proposed New Mooring Container Terminal deal with DP World until 15 February, considering the upcoming general election and the need to keep goods moving ahead of Ramadan.

The announcement came in a press release issued early today (9 February) by the Chattogram Bandar Rokkha Sangram Parishad, which has been spearheading protests for the past nine days.

The group said Shipping Adviser Brig Gen (retd) M Sakhawat Hussain and Bida Chairman Chowdhury Ashik Mahmud Bin Harun had earlier told journalists that the interim government would not sign the NCT agreement during its tenure.

Despite the assurance, the platform alleged that the Chittagong Port Authority had taken a series of punitive actions against protesting workers. These included the arrest of five port employees, the filing of what it described as harassment cases, the transfer of 15 employees to different ports across the country and the imposition of various disciplinary measures.

It added that housing allocations of protesting workers had been cancelled and that 16 employees had been suspended, along with other penalties.

"In the interest of the 13th national election in 2026 and to ensure uninterrupted release of essential goods ahead of Ramadan, and following discussions with our leaders, we have decided to suspend the strike programme from 8am on 9 February to 15 February," the press release said.

The workers warned that failure to address their concerns within this period would prompt fresh programmes, to be announced at a press conference on 16 February.

The statement was signed by Mohammad Humayun Kabir and Mohammad Ibrahim Khokon, coordinators of the council.

It began its work abstention programme at 8am on 31 January, initially observing an eight-hour stoppage from 8am to 4pm for three days.

From last Tuesday (3 February), the protest escalated into an indefinite work stoppage, which was briefly suspended for two days following a visit by the shipping adviser on Thursday.

Despite the pause, the council alleged that further administrative actions by the CPA had reignited tensions, prompting workers to resume an indefinite strike yesterday morning.

The renewed stoppage disrupted operations at port terminals and the outer anchorage.

Indian refiners are avoiding Russian oil purchases for delivery in April and are expected to stay away from such trades for longer, refining and trade sources said, a move that could help New Delhi seal a trade pact with Washington.

The US and India moved closer to a trade pact on Friday, announcing a framework for a deal they hope to conclude by March that would lower tariffs and deepen economic cooperation.

Indian Oil, Bharat Petroleum and Reliance Industries are not accepting offers from traders for Russian oil loading in March and April, said a trader who approached the refiners.

These refiners, however, had already scheduled some deliveries of Russian oil in March, refining sources said. Most other refiners have stopped buying Russian crude.

TRUMP SAYS INDIA 'COMMITTED' TO HALTING PURCHASES

The three refiners and the oil ministry did not respond to requests for comment. The trade minister on Saturday referred questions about Russian oil to the foreign ministry.

A foreign ministry spokesperson said: "Diversifying our energy sourcing in keeping with objective market conditions and evolving international dynamics is at the core of our strategy" to ensure energy security for the world's most-populous nation.

Although a US-India statement on the trade framework did not mention Russian oil, President Donald Trump rescinded his 25 percent tariffs on Indian goods, imposed over Russian oil purchases, because, he said, New Delhi had "committed to stop directly or indirectly" importing Russian oil.

New Delhi has not announced plans to halt Russian oil imports.
India became the top buyer of discounted Russian seaborne crude after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, spurring a backlash from Western nations that had targeted Russia's energy sector with sanctions aimed at curtailing Moscow's revenue and making it harder to fund the war.

INDIA'S RUSSIAN-OIL IMPORTS A FRACTION OF 2025 LEVELS

One regular Indian buyer is Russia-backed private refiner Nayara, which relies solely on Russian oil for its 400,000-barrel-per-day refinery. Sources said Nayara may be allowed to keep buying Russian oil because other crude sellers pulled back after the European Union sanctioned the refiner in July.

Nayara also does not plan to import Russian crude in April due to a month-long refinery maintenance shutdown, a source familiar with its operations said.

Nayara did not respond to an email seeking comment.

Indian refiners may change their plan and place orders for Russian oil only if advised by the government, sources said.

Trump's order said US officials would monitor and recommend reinstating the tariffs if India resumed oil procurement from Russia.

Sources said last month that India was preparing to cut Russian oil imports below 1 million bpd by March, with volumes eventually falling to 500,000–600,000 bpd, compared with an average 1.7 million bpd last year. India's Russian oil imports topped 2 million bpd in mid-2025.

The intake of Russian oil by India, the world's third-biggest oil consumer and importer, declined to its lowest level in two years in December, data from trade and industry sources show.

Indian refiners have been buying more oil from Middle Eastern, African and South American countries as they scale back Russian oil purchases.

The Bangladesh Competition Commission (BCC) has fined S Alam Super Edible Oil Ltd Tk 42.84 crore for artificially inflating cooking oil prices by restricting supply and colluding with dealers and rivals to manipulate the market in 2022.

Following demands from businesspeople, the government raised edible oil prices by Tk 38 per litre on May 5, 2022. Yet supply remained tight, leaving consumers struggling.

The BCC later launched an investigation into the import, production and pricing of cooking oil during that period, and filed charges against the company later that month.

In its final order, issued last Tuesday, the commission found that S Alam Super Edible Oil Company had violated the Competition Act of 2012 by restricting output and conspiring with distributors and other firms to control the market, reads a press statement.

It violated Section 15’s sub-section 1 and sub-section 2’s clauses a(i) and b of the law, which prohibit agreements that harm competition or create monopolies and oligopolies, particularly those that fix abnormal prices or limit production and supply.

Afroza Bilkis, a member of the BCC, told The Daily Star that S Alam Super Edible Oil Ltd must pay the fine within 30 days of receiving the full judgment.

If the company disagrees with the ruling, it can file a review with the commission or appeal to the Secretary of the ministry concerned within the same timeframe.

Bilkis added that failure to pay, review, or appeal would be considered a violation of the order, allowing the commission to initiate legal action, including criminal proceedings, against the company.

The company is owned by Mohammed Saiful Alam, who is accused of laundering thousands of crores of taka in loans from banks under his control during the 15 years of the Awami League-led regime.

The Daily Star attempted to contact S Alam Group’s Kazi Salahuddin Ahmed, senior general manager, and Subrata Kumar Bhowmick, executive director for finance, for comments on the matter. However, they did not respond by the time of filing this report, as of 6:30 pm.

Stocks opened the week in negative territory as investors opted to book profits following recent gains, pushing the benchmark index of the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) slightly lower amid a cautious trading mood.

The DSEX, the broad index of the prime bourse, edged down by 0.10% to close at 5,229 points, while the blue-chip DS30 index slipped 0.17% to finish at 1,998 points today (8 February).

Market breadth reflected a lack of clear direction, with 162 issues advancing, an equal number declining, and 69 remaining unchanged.

Turnover dropped sharply by 19% from the previous session to Tk478 crore, indicating reduced participation as investors stayed on the sidelines in the absence of fresh catalysts. Market participants appeared reluctant to take aggressive positions after the recent upward trend, choosing instead to reassess valuations.

EBL Securities, in its daily market review, said the benchmark index started the week on a flat note as investors took advantage of the recent price appreciation to realise profits, triggering sustained selling pressure in several large-cap and blue-chip stocks. It noted that investors remained watchful over further political clarity ahead of the upcoming national election, which continued to influence short-term sentiment.

Sector-wise, pharmaceutical stocks dominated turnover, accounting for 14.7% of total trading value, followed closely by textile and banking sectors, each contributing 13.6%. Asiatic Laboratories, Simtex Industries, Kay and Que, Islami Bank and Monno Fabrics emerged as the most actively traded stocks of the day.

Most sectors ended the session in the red, with engineering and jute stocks posting the steepest declines of 1% each, while the tannery sector lost 0.7%. The negative sectoral performance underscored the impact of profit-taking across a wide range of scrips.

Interestingly, the top gainers' list was dominated by risky and loss-making financial institutions, as speculative interest pushed up prices of Fareast Finance, International Leasing, Peoples Leasing and FAS Finance, each posting double-digit gains. Associated Oxygen also featured among the gainers.

On the losing side, DBH First Mutual Fund suffered the sharpest decline, followed by Meghna Condensed Milk, Meghna PET, Reliance Insurance Mutual Fund and Prime Bank First ICB AMCL Mutual Fund, as investors offloaded positions in these issues.

The Chittagong Stock Exchange also mirrored the weak sentiment. Its selective categories index CSCX fell by 43 points to 9,078, while the all-share index CASPI dropped 48 points to close at 14,683. Turnover on the port city bourse stood at Tk6.33 crore.

Shares of several politically linked companies drew strong buying interest on the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) yesterday, with Kay & Que (Bangladesh) Limited and three Monno Group firms ranking among the session's top gainers.

Kay & Que topped the gainers' chart, surging 8.74% to close at Tk434 per share.

Market participants attributed the sharp rise to speculative sentiment following the company's chairman, Abdul Awal Mintoo, to contest the 2026 parliamentary election from the Feni-3 constituency.

Mintoo, a former president of the Federation of Bangladesh Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FBCCI) and a vice chairman of the BNP, is a prominent figure whose political developments often influence investor interest in his associated firms.

Similarly, Monno Group companies enjoyed a notable rally. Monno Agro Industries advanced 7.11% to close at Tk364.1, while Monno Fabrics gained 6.73% to end at Tk22.2. Monno Ceramics also added 4.12%, finishing the day at Tk83.3 per share.

Investors linked the rally to expectations surrounding Afroza Khan Rita, chairperson of Monno Group of Industries, as a BNP candidate for the Manikganj-3 constituency, prompting short-term traders to build positions amid evolving political developments.

Market analysts, however, cautioned that such rallies are frequently driven by speculation rather than underlying financial fundamentals. They noted that in the run-up to national elections, stocks associated with politically active entrepreneurs often draw significant attention, leading to heightened volatility.

Analysts advised retail investors to focus on valuations and underlying financial performance, warning that politically driven price surges can reverse quickly once speculative heat cools down.

Bangladesh Bank (BB) is set to announce its monetary policy for January-June of the current fiscal year today, just two days before the national election.

BB Governor Ahsan H Mansur will present the policy at 11:00am at a press conference at the central bank’s Motijheel headquarters. This will be the last monetary policy under the current interim government.

The policy rate, or repo rate -- a key interest rate used to influence overall economic activity, credit and inflation -- is expected to remain unchanged at 10 percent due to persistent inflationary pressures.

Central bank officials involved in policy formulation said BB will continue its tight monetary stance as inflation remains elevated, despite previous interest-rate hikes that have fallen short of the governor’s inflation targets.

Data from the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) shows overall inflation rose to 8.58 percent in January, marking the third consecutive monthly increase, with food prices rising ahead of Ramadan.

Although the policy rate has been raised from 6 percent to 10 percent over the past three years, inflation has remained stubbornly high. Headline inflation peaked at 11.66 percent in July 2024 and, while it briefly fell to 8.48 percent in June last year -- the first time it dropped below 9 percent in two years -- it rose again to 8.49 percent in December from 8.29 percent the previous month.

This persistence undermines Governor Mansur’s forecast that inflation would fall below 5 percent by fiscal year 2025–26.

Industry insiders said inflation is being driven more by supply-side constraints than by excess demand. The central bank has resisted calls for a rate cut and has kept the policy rate at 10 percent since October 2024.

BB is also expected to revise its private sector credit growth target to encourage investment after the February 12 election.

According to BB data, private sector credit growth fell to a four-year low of 6.10 percent in December 2025, down from 6.58 percent in November, reflecting political uncertainty and subdued economic activity.

Zahid Hussain, former lead economist at the World Bank’s Dhaka office, said the central bank has limited room to ease policy while inflation remains high and is likely to keep the policy rate at 10 percent in the near term.

“Cutting the policy rate now could worsen inflation rather than stabilise prices,” he said, adding that inflation is driven not only by excess demand but also by supply bottlenecks and global supply chain disruptions.

On exchange-rate management, Hussain said Bangladesh Bank is prioritising stability over allowing the taka to strengthen against the US dollar. Despite steady remittance inflows and improved dollar availability, the central bank is avoiding taka appreciation, as a stronger currency could lower import costs but hurt export earnings and remittance inflows.

He added that private sector credit growth remains weak and short-term foreign borrowing has declined. While lower interest rates could support investment, high inflation constrains such measures.

“BB’s dollar purchases have added liquidity to the banking system, but weak credit demand has so far kept inflationary risks in check,” Hussain said.

Following the recent conclusion of a trade agreement between India and the European Union, and the prospect of tariff reductions under a US-India bilateral trade deal, fresh concerns have emerged among Bangladeshi exporters. Tariffs on Indian products in the US market are being reduced to 18 percent, while Bangladeshi products continue to face an effective tariff of 20 percent. This has created a clear price gap between two major South Asian exporters. Experts warn that if this disparity persists, Bangladesh’s ready-made garment exports to the US market, despite their historic edge, could be seriously affected.

Bangladeshi exporters are already struggling to compete on price with US buyers. As a result, orders for basic T-shirts, knitwear and casual apparel are increasingly at risk. Sector insiders say export growth declined during the July-December period of 2025, with only marginal improvement in January, while competing countries moved ahead by leveraging global trade advantages. This has created a new crisis for the export sector.

Analysts also caution that if the EU market no longer offers GSP facilities after 2026, Bangladesh could face a major shock in its largest export destination. Against this backdrop, resolving internal challenges, strengthening diplomatic engagement and reinforcing trade strategies have become critically important. Without stronger policy support to ensure exporter stability, the export sector will face further pressure, with direct consequences for the national economy.

The impact is most visible in the ready-made garment sector. Exporters note that even a 1 to 2 percent tariff difference can determine where orders are placed. With lower tariffs, Indian exporters can offer more competitive prices. They also benefit from easier access to raw materials and faster delivery, supported by more efficient ports and supply chains. As a result, Bangladesh’s T-shirt, knitwear and casual apparel orders face serious threat.

Garment sector leaders say tariff differentiation has left Bangladeshi factories with few options. To survive, many may be forced to cut prices to retain buyers. But lower prices will squeeze already thin margins, worsening conditions for factories burdened by high production costs, gas and electricity shortages, and high-interest bank loans.

Between 2021 and 2026, India concluded nine major trade agreements, significantly strengthening its global export position. Bangladesh, by contrast, has only one effective trade agreement with Bhutan, while another with Japan was signed this week.

India’s success is not sudden. It reflects a long-term strategy and a comprehensive textile and apparel ecosystem, with strong backward and forward linkages, infrastructure investment, skills development and higher value addition. Sector stakeholders say that Bangladesh should not remain stuck in despair, but focus on two priorities: identifying where it has fallen behind, and determining how it can stay competitive through long-term planning. This calls for targeted FTA and CEPA strategies, greater value addition, improved logistics and port efficiency, policy stability and investment in skilled human resources. With these steps, the export sector can still be revitalised.

With India’s countervailing tariff set at 18 percent, Bangladesh faces renewed competitive pressure. The current structure is clear: Indian exports face a 15 percent customs duty plus an 18 percent countervailing tariff, while Bangladeshi exports face a 15 percent customs duty plus a 20 percent countervailing tariff. In total, Bangladeshi exporters pay 35 percent in tariffs. This erodes competitiveness as buyers push for lower prices. At the same time, private sector wage pressures are rising amid expectations of public sector salary increases.

In this situation, the government must urgently intensify diplomatic efforts and strengthen policy support to keep the export sector competitive. With a national election approaching, major political parties should also be prepared to debate and negotiate what best serves the country’s economic interests.

The interim government succeeded in preventing a deeper economic and geopolitical slide during a highly volatile period, but failed to translate that stability into meaningful institutional reform, transparency, and inclusive governance, said speakers at a policy dialogue on Saturday.

Economic analyst Mamun Rashid argued that although the interim government inherited an economy on the brink, particularly after the July 2024 uprising, its most visible achievement was halting further deterioration rather than delivering a decisive turnaround.

“The fall was stopped, not reversed,” said former banker Mamun Rashid at a virtual discussion titled “Interim Balance Sheet”, organised by the Power and Participation Research Centre (PPRC).

The economy in early 2024 was “going nowhere”, with macroeconomic indicators under severe stress. The period following the political transition marked a shift from decline to stabilisation, particularly in foreign exchange reserves, remittance inflows, and banking discipline.

Reforms in the banking sector, such as reconstituting bank boards and initiating forensic audits, particularly in troubled Islamic banks, were the most visible actions of the interim government.

Anwar-Ul-Alam Chowdhury (Parvez), president of the Bangladesh Chamber of Industries, alleged that advisers relied excessively on bureaucrats, often without understanding the real-world impact of policy decisions
Still, these measures largely reflected “business-as-usual” governance rather than a deeper transformation.

“We did not see the kind of modernisation in economic management that many expected after the movement,” he said, adding that conflicts of interest, bureaucratic dominance, and informal influence networks remained largely intact.

Private sector credit growth had slowed to 6.1 percent, while implementation of the annual development programme stood at just 17.28 percent in six months, said Anwar-Ul-Alam Chowdhury (Parvez), president of the Bangladesh Chamber of Industries.

He alleged that advisers relied excessively on bureaucrats, often without understanding the real-world impact of policy decisions.

“They thought they knew everything,” he said, adding that access to decision-makers was limited and engagement with businesses remained weak.

Public expectations after August 2024 were that social polarisation would decline and that a culture of open debate would emerge, said Rounaq Jahan, a political scientist.

“That did not happen,” she said.

While people are now speaking more openly, they are increasingly being labelled or targeted, creating a climate of fear.

She cited attacks on cultural and media institutions such as Prothom Alo, The Daily Star, Udichi, and Chhayanaut as examples of shrinking civic safety.

Jahan criticised the interim government for attempting too many ambitious reforms without sufficient consensus, particularly constitutional changes, while neglecting electoral preparation.

“Given the history of controversial elections, ensuring a credible next election should have been the priority,” she said.

The interim period coincided with rising regional and global instability, including uncertainties over water sharing with India and trade disruptions under the Trump administration in the US, said M Humayun Kabir, president of the Bangladesh Enterprise Institute.

While political parties mentioned geopolitics in their manifestos, concrete strategies were lacking.

Kabir welcomed Bangladesh’s economic partnership agreement with Japan, calling it a “bold step”, but criticised the interim government for failing to build strong institutional coordination across the foreign affairs and commerce ministries.

The interim government managed two critical challenges: halting macroeconomic decline and navigating a sensitive geopolitical environment, said Hossain Zillur Rahman, executive chairman of PPRC, who moderated the dialogue.

However, he warned that stability without transparency and social accountability could not deliver lasting change.

“The bureaucracy has further strengthened its grip on society, reflecting a continuation of colonial mindsets,” he said.

Rahman stressed that elections alone would not resolve systemic problems but could serve as a catalyst for rebuilding political dialogue and trust between parties and citizens.

After months of uncertainty, optimism has returned to apparel manufacturers and exporters in Tiruppur, India's largest textile hub, following an interim trade agreement between the United States and India.

The textile and apparel sector has emerged as one of the biggest beneficiaries of the deal, under which US tariffs on Indian garments have been reduced from 50% to 18%.

Industry leaders said the move would provide immediate relief to exporters who had been operating at losses while fulfilling existing orders.

India exports apparel worth about $10.5 billion annually to the US, its largest textile market. Exporters said the tariff cut would restore competitiveness and improve profitability.

Major apparel exporters noted that the agreement would ease pressure from discounted deals. Pearl Global Industries Ltd, which supplies brands such as GAP Inc and Ralph Lauren Corp, said the removal of penalty tariffs would boost margins.

"With the penalty now eliminated, discount pressure will reduce, directly boosting profitability from February onwards," said P Banerjee, managing director of Pearl Global.

Textile exporters in Tiruppur welcomed the India-US framework trade agreement, saying it would help the sector compete more effectively with Bangladesh, Vietnam and China.

Industry representatives said garment orders worth around Rs4,000 crore had been stuck due to tariff uncertainty and were expected to be cleared following the agreement, which has taken immediate effect.

Tiruppur Exporters' Association President KM Subramanian described the joint statement by India and the US as "significant" and said exports from Tiruppur could double over the next five years. Currently, the hub's garment exports are valued at around Rs15,000 crore, according to him.

Subramanian, who is also founder-chairman of KM Knitwear Pvt Ltd, said the deal could generate substantial employment.

"About one million people are currently employed in the industry. I am hopeful that another 500,000 jobs could be created over the next three to five years if the momentum continues," he said, adding that the immediate impact would be visible within three to four months.

South Indian Mills Association President Durai Palanisamy said the deal with the US, along with improved trade ties with the European Union, would increase demand for Indian textile exports due to enhanced global competitiveness.

M Rathinasam, founder of Tiruppur-based Starlight Exporters, said earlier many orders had shifted to Bangladesh and other countries, but expressed hope that more orders would now return to India and that work on pending orders would resume soon.

A Sakthivel, chairman of the Apparel Export Promotion Council, said the agreement would also help address non-tariff barriers and reduce compliance burdens for exporters.