The country’s heavy reliance on imported energy from the Middle East, especially liquefied natural gas (LNG) and crude oil, has left the economy exposed to global price shocks and supply disruptions as the US-Israel’s war on Iran intensifies, according to the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD).

The think tank said the next national budget by the new government is being developed under these economic challenges. It urged the government to prioritise energy security in the new budget and gradually move towards greater domestic self-sufficiency.

Speaking at a media briefing at its Dhaka office on recommendations for the national budget for fiscal year 2026-2027, CPD urged policymakers to focus on restoring macroeconomic stability, stimulating investment and strengthening revenue mobilisation.

“The economy faces multiple pressures, including high inflation, low revenue collection, slow budget execution, a heavy debt burden, low investment, declining employment, a weak financial sector and declining export growth,” said Fahmida Khatun, executive director of CPD.

While presenting the paper, she said that rising global energy prices driven by instability in the Middle East are clouding Bangladesh’s inflation outlook further. Higher fuel costs are also pushing up prices of essential commodities such as edible oil, wheat and sugar.

Prof Mustafizur Rahman, a distinguished fellow of CPD, pointed to another vulnerability. He said Bangladesh does not have permanent strategic reserves of fuel oil, unlike several neighbouring countries.

Rahman urged the government to develop such reserves under a medium-term plan to reassure markets and prevent panic buying during periods of global volatility.

At the programme, CPD also highlighted deep financial strain in the energy sector, where mounting losses and heavy dependence on imported LNG are weakening fiscal stability.

Fahmida said the FY27 budget must combine targeted short-term measures while also laying the foundation for medium-term reforms to stabilise the economy.

REVENUE MOBILISATION REMAINS WEAK

CPD identified major shortcomings in revenue collection and said that the government is unlikely to meet its targets for the current fiscal year.

“In the case of tax collected by NBR [National Board of Revenue], revenue mobilisation growth remained at only 12.9 percent during July-January of FY26,” said Fahmida.

The annual growth target for FY26 was set at 34.5 percent. To reach that goal, tax collection would need to rise by 59.4 percent during the February-June period, a pace that appears highly unlikely given the current trend.

Professor Rahman said the government should focus on reducing revenue leakage. He called for greater digitalisation of tax administration and a strict stance against tax evasion.

To strengthen fiscal capacity, CPD proposed a series of reforms to increase domestic resource mobilisation.

The CPD paper said Bangladesh’s tax-to-GDP ratio remains among the lowest in comparable economies.

The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) has set a target of raising the ratio to 15 percent by 2035 from 6.8 percent in FY25. To achieve that target, the think tank suggested exploring new tax bases.

“Meaningful taxation of wealth and property and taxes on the expanding digital economy should be considered,” suggested Fahmida.

The think tank also advised the government to phase out ad-hoc tax incentives and improve mechanisms for resolving tax disputes.

BUDGET EXECUTION SLOWS SHARPLY

CPD also pointed to weaknesses in public spending, especially in the implementation of the annual development programme (ADP).

During the July-January period of FY26, the ADP implementation rate reached only 20.3 percent, the lowest level in fifteen years, it said.

CPD added the slowdown may reflect “poor project management, institutional inefficiency and the government’s deliberate attempt to curtail overcapitalised development projects.”

At the same time, the government has relied increasingly on bank borrowing to finance the fiscal deficit, a trend that could crowd out private sector credit.

CPD expressed concern about falling investment, saying that the trend threatens job creation and long-term economic growth.

Private investment dropped to 22.03 percent of GDP in the last fiscal year, the lowest level in a decade. Foreign direct investment has also remained very low.

The decline suggests that the economy is not creating enough jobs at a time when large numbers of young people enter the labour market each year.

INFLATION CONTINUES TO STRAIN HOUSEHOLDS

Inflation remains another pressing challenge for policymakers. During the first eight months of FY26, general inflation largely stayed between 8 percent and 9 percent across national, rural and urban levels.

Stubbornly high prices are placing additional pressure on middle-income households.

CPD said the upcoming budget will require more realistic fiscal targets. “The targets set for the macroeconomic framework in recent budgets appeared to be overly optimistic,” said Fahmida.

The think tank said the experience of the current fiscal year highlights the need for more credible projections and better alignment between targets and implementation capacity.

RETHINKING SPENDING PRIORITIES

CPD also urged the government to reassess spending priorities.

It recommended allocating greater resources to sectors that directly support vulnerable groups, including food production, social protection, agriculture subsidies, health and education.

At the same time, unproductive projects should continue to be removed from the development budget, it said.

The think tank called for reforms to improve the business climate and support employment. It also recommended building a digital platform that simplifies procedures for businesses.

“The government should establish an integrated digital one-stop service platform for business registration, licensing, taxation and regulatory compliance,” CPD said.

CPD also proposed tax relief for small and medium enterprises. It suggested abolishing Advance Income Tax and Advance VAT on imports of capital machinery and raw materials used by SMEs.

According to CPD, the FY27 budget offers the new government an opportunity to demonstrate leadership in fiscal management.

Restoring macroeconomic stability must remain the central objective, it added.

Khondaker Golam Moazzem, research director of CPD, was also present at the briefing.

Bangladeshi companies are increasingly investing abroad, with net foreign direct investment (FDI) outflows soaring more than ninefold in the July-September quarter of 2025 compared with the same period the year before.

According to Bangladesh Bank data, net outflows reached $15.80 million during the quarter, up from $1.70 million a year earlier, reflecting a growing outward-looking investment trend.

Total outward flows (or gross outward flows) rose to $31.99 million in the quarter, compared with $17.11 million a year earlier.

Meanwhile, inflows increased slightly to $16.20 million from $15.41 million, widening the overall net outflow.

Between July and September 2025, Bangladeshi companies sent more money abroad than they received. Equity capital -- ownership stakes in foreign companies -- saw a net outflow of $2.23 million.

Reinvested profits also posted a net outflow of $4.12 million, while intra-company loans -- funds moved between parent firms and subsidiaries -- accounted for a net outflow of $9.45 million.

By contrast, the same period in 2024 saw only $1.19 million leave as equity, while $9.23 million in reinvested profits and $8.72 million in intra-company loans came into the country.

Country-wise, Hong Kong SAR of China received the largest share of net outflows at $10.63 million. India followed with $4.62 million, and the United Arab Emirates received $2.62 million.

Smaller amounts went to Singapore, Kenya, South Africa, Ireland, Italy, and the Maldives, while other countries recorded a net outflow of $3.68 million.

By sector, financial intermediaries sent the most money abroad with $12.47 million in net outflows, followed by trading ($3.53 million) and metal and machinery products ($0.21 million).

Mining and quarrying, and chemicals and pharmaceuticals each had tiny outflows of $0.01 million, textiles and clothing $0.11 million, and other manufacturing $0.27 million.

FIRMS SEEK OPPORTUNITIES ABROAD

The trend reflects companies’ growing interest in overseas markets through equity stakes and intra-company lending. The push began after 2015, when the government revised the Foreign Exchange Regulation Act, allowing firms to invest abroad under certain conditions, especially to promote exports. Since then, Bangladeshi companies have expanded into over 18 countries across Asia, Africa, and Europe.

Muhammad Zahangir Alam, chief financial officer of Square Pharmaceuticals Ltd, said the company invested $75 million in 2022 to build a manufacturing plant in Kenya.

The plant supplies medicines across East Africa, including Kenya, Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, Uganda, and South Sudan, where most medicines are still imported.

Currently, Square sells about $8 million worth of medicines each year from its Kenya plant, and it is expected to rise to $10 million soon, Alam said.

He added that investing abroad helps the company earn profits without relying solely on exports from Bangladesh.

Square Pharmaceuticals has also been approved by the US Food and Drug Administration, opening the door for further global investments.

“We are also aiming at the ASEAN market, where about 70 percent of medicines are imported,” Alam said, adding the company is considering investments in Malaysia and the Philippines.

Bangladesh Steel Re-Rolling Mills Ltd (BSRM) has also expanded abroad. The company got approval from the Bangladesh Bank to invest $500,000 to increase the capital of its existing subsidiary in Hong Kong.

Shekhar Ranjan Kar, company secretary of BSRM Steels Ltd, said the subsidiary mainly helps with sourcing raw materials, not manufacturing.

Set up two to three years ago, the trading office finds and buys quality scrap from countries like China and Hong Kong and supplies it to Bangladesh. The office runs with a small team of three to four staff members, he added.

Selim Raihan, executive director of the South Asian Network on Economic Modelling, said the rise in outward investment may partly be due to a weak domestic investment environment. Indicators like private sector credit growth show that local investment is still low.

He added that the total amount of outward FDI is still small and unlikely to affect the overall economy. Many investments are approved individually and are often driven by specific opportunities abroad.

Raihan said instead of worrying about money leaving the country, policymakers should focus on improving the local investment climate.

Boosting investor confidence, strengthening law and order, reducing business costs, and managing global uncertainties -- such as tensions in the Middle East and fluctuating oil prices -- will be key to encouraging investment in Bangladesh, he added.

United Finance PLC has received in-principle approval from Bangladesh Bank to open an Islamic finance window, allowing the company to offer Shariah-compliant financial services alongside its existing conventional operations.

The central bank granted the approval through a letter dated 8 March, according to a price-sensitive disclosure filed with the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE).

The approval is subject to several conditions, including amendments to relevant clauses in the company's memorandum and articles of association.

Once the required changes are made and other regulatory conditions are met, the company will be able to conduct Shariah-compliant financing activities through the dedicated Islamic finance window.

Following the disclosure, United Finance shares rose 3.17% on the Dhaka bourse to close at Tk13, reflecting positive investor sentiment about the company's expansion into Islamic financial services.

The move comes as demand for Shariah-based financial products continues to grow in Bangladesh's financial sector. By introducing the Islamic finance, United Finance aims to diversify its product offerings and reach a wider customer base seeking Shariah-compliant financing options, the company said.

United Finance has reported modest financial performance in recent periods. For the July-September quarter of 2025, earnings per share (EPS) stood at Tk0.05, unchanged from the same period a year earlier.

For the January-September period of 2025, EPS rose slightly to Tk0.23 from Tk0.22 in the corresponding period of 2024. Net operating cash flow per share (NOCFPS) improved significantly to Tk0.81 during the nine-month period, compared with negative Tk1.43 in the same period a year earlier.

The company's net asset value per share stood at Tk17.07 as of 30 September 2025, slightly lower than Tk17.84 recorded at the end of December 2024.

In 2024, United Finance declared a 10% cash dividend for its shareholders. For the year ended 31 December 2024, the non-bank financial institution reported EPS of Tk1.12, NAV per share of Tk17.84 and NOCFPS of Tk4.27, compared with Tk0.76, Tk17.32 and Tk0.76 respectively in 2023.

Saudi Arabia's Aramco, the world's top oil exporter, said on Tuesday there would be "catastrophic consequences" for the world's oil ​markets if the Iran war continues to disrupt shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.

Oil shipments have been largely blocked from using the shipping artery, where normally ‌roughly 20% of the world's oil would pass through daily. Iran's Revolutionary Guards said on Tuesday they would not allow "one litre of oil" to be shipped from the Middle East if US and Israeli attacks continue.

"There would be catastrophic consequences for the world's oil markets and the longer the disruption goes on ... the more drastic the consequences for the global economy," Aramco CEO Amin Nasser told reporters on an earnings call.

"While ​we have faced disruptions in the past, this one by far is the biggest crisis the region's oil and gas industry has faced."

Wide range of sectors may ​be hit

The crisis has not only upended the shipping and insurance sectors, but it also promises to have drastic domino effects on aviation, ⁠agriculture, automotive and other industries, he added.

Global crude benchmark Brent , which rocketed to a more than three-year high of nearly $120 a barrel on Monday, was trading around $92 on Tuesday ​following comments by US President Donald Trump predicting the war could end soon.

Trump, however, warned that the US would hit Iran much harder if it blocked exports from the vital energy-producing region.

He has ​also said the US Navy could escort ships in the Gulf to guarantee safe passage. But the Navy's capacity to do that is unclear, with some vessels already engaged in strikes against Iran and shooting down its missiles.

Asked about US Navy escorts and whether they were possible on the scale required, Nasser said there are sizable volumes involved, adding that Aramco's customers assume the risk of delivery.

"Of course, we would ​support any actions or measures that would help to deliver our products to our customers, to the global market," he said.

Another top Gulf energy official, however, expressed skepticism over ​the idea, saying that stopping the war was the only solution to reopen the strait for oil and gas exports.

No exports from the gulf

Nasser noted global inventories of oil were at a five-year low ‌and said ⁠the crisis will lead to drawdowns at a faster rate, adding that it was critical that shipping in the strait resumed.

"Unfortunately, for global markets, most of the spare capacity is in this region," Nasser told analysts on a call, noting that incremental demand throughout the year will keep the market tightly balanced.

At present, Aramco is not exporting oil from the Gulf as ships cannot load cargoes there. But the company, which does not disclose its exact crude output, is meeting the majority of its customers' needs, he said, partly by tapping into ​global inventories.

"Now, that cannot be used - that inventory - ​for an extended period of time, ⁠but for the time being, we are capitalising on it," he said.

The East-West pipeline is, meanwhile, being used to transport mostly Arab Light and some Arab Extra Light crude grades to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. The pipeline, which has more than doubled its initial ​capacity, is expected to reach its full capacity of 7 million barrels per day in the next couple of days as customers ​re-route, Nasser said.

"Even with ⁠our ability to export through the western region, you're talking about close to 350 million barrels of disruptions that will come off the market," he said.

In addition to the pipeline, Aramco is also able to direct crude towards domestic demand, he noted. Close to 2 million bpd of the pipeline's 7 million bpd capacity is going to western domestic refineries, which are net exporters ⁠of products, Nasser ​added.

A small fire from an attack last week on Aramco's Ras Tanura refinery, its largest domestically, was quickly ​extinguished and brought under control, Nasser said, adding that the refinery was in the process of being restarted.

Aramco reported a 12% drop in annual profit on Tuesday mainly due to lower crude prices. It also announced it would ​repurchase up to $3 billion worth of shares in its first-ever buyback.

The Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) will remain closed for seven consecutive days from March 17 to March 23 in observance of Eid-ul-Fitr and Shab-e-Qadr.

The extended closure follows a government decision declaring March 18, 2026, an additional public holiday to facilitate the Eid vacation.

According to DSE sources, all trading activities and official operations of the stock exchange will remain suspended during this period. As a result, share trading, market monitoring, and other routine activities of the exchange will not take place throughout the holiday break.

The government recently announced 18 March as a public holiday as part of the extended Eid-ul-Fitr vacation. Combined with weekly holidays and religious observances, the decision has created a seven-day break for the country's premier stock exchange.

During this period, investors will not be able to buy or sell shares, as the bourse will remain fully closed.

DSE authorities said that after the end of the holy month of Ramadan and the Eid holidays, the exchange will return to its regular operational schedule. All activities of the stock exchange will resume on 24 March.

Under the regular schedule, the office hours of the DSE will be from 9am to 5pm, during which administrative and other official work is carried out.

Trading on the exchange normally begins at 10am. and continues until 2:20pm. This period is known as the continuous trading session, when investors can buy and sell shares under normal market conditions.

After that, a post-closing session takes place from 2:20pm to 2:30pm, during which the day's transactions are finalised and the market is formally closed.

Market insiders said such extended closures during major religious festivals are part of the routine holiday calendar of the capital market. Brokerage houses, merchant banks, and other market intermediaries usually align their operations with the exchange's holiday schedule.

The Bangladeshi taka weakened further against the US dollar today (10 March), marking its third consecutive day of depreciation, with the exchange rate rising to a maximum of Tk122.95 per dollar from Tk122.70 yesterday (9 March). Market analysts attributed the decline to growing tensions over the escalating war in the Middle East, which has heightened demand for foreign currency to pay energy bills.

Bangladesh Bank allowed commercial banks to trade dollars at a higher rate to manage the pressure in the foreign exchange market, according to insiders. Senior officials from several leading business conglomerates said that banks were charging an extra 20 to 25 paisa for Letter of Credit (LC) settlements yesterday.

Yesterday, LC settlement rates ranged between Tk122.90 and Tk122.95 for major business groups. A senior official noted that when contacting banks yesterday morning, they were quoted Tk122.80 to Tk122.95, compared to Tk122.57–Tk122.72 yesterday.

Last week, LC settlement rates were around Tk122.3–Tk122.35. An official from a private company said the rising dollar rate was creating challenges for businesses, warning that higher dollar prices lead to higher prices for other goods and could trigger further instability.

A deputy managing director of a private bank said the dollar market had remained stable for more than 18 months without artificial shortages. Still, a senior official noted that remittance purchases today at Tk122.70–Tk122.72 contributed to the recent rise.

Economists recently met with the central bank governor, emphasising the importance of maintaining foreign exchange reserves, which some market participants interpreted as a signal that the central bank might conserve reserves and refrain from selling dollars, even amid shortages.

While Bangladesh Bank has so far kept the market relatively stable, bankers cautioned that continued volatility could affect multiple sectors, underlining the need for timely central bank interventions to prevent a potential dollar crisis.

India today came out with a fresh set of guidelines easing norms for foreign direct investment (FDI) coming from countries sharing land border with it, providing for a 60-day timeline for approval to investments in critical sectors, including electronic capital goods and electronic components.

A meeting of the Indian cabinet presided by Prime Minister Narendra Modi approved the changes in FDI policy for investments from Land Bordering Countries (LBCs), which will help manufacturing in electronic components, capital goods and solar cells, an official statement said this evening (10 March).

Countries that share land borders with India are China, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Bhutan, Nepal, Afghanistan and Myanmar.

The amendments in the FDI policy aim to unlock greater FDI inflows from global funds for startups and deep techs, take forward the agenda of ease of doing business, it said.

The changes in the policy envisage "expeditious approval in 60 days to help companies enter into collaborations to expand manufacturing in India" with access to technology and integration with global supply chains.

In 2020, India had clamped restrictions on foreign companies having shareholders from the LBCs, which required mandatory government approval for investments in India in any sector, in a bid to curb opportunistic takeovers or acquisitions of Indian companies due to the Covid-19 pandemic.

At that time, the Indian government clearance was mandatory for an entity of a country, which shares land border with India or where the beneficial owner of an investment into India is situated in or is a citizen of any such country. Additionally, any transfer of ownership of any existing or future FDI in an entity in India resulting in the beneficial ownership falling within the aforesaid jurisdiction(s) also requires government approval.

The statement noted that the restrictions on cases where LBC investors may have only non-strategic, non-controlling interests were seen as adversely affecting investment flows from investors, including global funds such as PE/VC funds.

It said, "The new guidelines will provide clarity and ease of doing business in India, and facilitate investments which can contribute towards greater FDI inflows, access to new technologies, domestic value addition, expansion of domestic firms and integration with global supply chain."

"This would help in leveraging and enhancing India's competitiveness as a preferred investment and manufacturing destination," according to the statement.

The statement said the existing policy has been reviewed and amended to provide for a definition and criteria for the determination of beneficial ownership (BO) that is widely used by the investing community under the Prevention of Money Laundering Rules, 2005.

The beneficial ownership test will be applied at the level of the investor entity. Investors with non-controlling LBC beneficial ownership of up to 10% would be permitted under the automatic route, subject to applicable sectoral caps, entry routes and attendant conditions.

Under the amended FDI rules, such investments would be subject to the reporting of relevant information/details by the investee entity to the Commerce Ministry. Expedited clearance of investments in specific sectors –

Proposals for LBC investments in specified sectors of manufacturing in capital goods, electronic capital goods, electronic components, polysilicon and ingot-wafer would be processed and decided within 60 days.

The Companies under the Cabinet Secretary may also revise the list of specified sectors.

In these cases, the majority shareholding and control of the Investee entity will have to be with resident Indian citizens and/or resident Indian entities owned and controlled by resident Indian citizens at all times.

China stands at the 23rd position with only a 0.32% share ($2.51 billion) in the total FDI equity inflow reported in India from April 2000 to December 2025.

Relations between New Delhi and Beijing nosedived following the fierce clash between their armies in Galwan Valley across the unresolved Himalayan borders in eastern Ladakh in June 2020 that marked the most serious military conflict between the two sides in decades.

Following the military faceoff, India banned over 200 Chinese mobile apps like TikTok, WeChat, and Alibaba's UC browser.

Bilateral trade between India and China has grown multi-fold with the balance trade heavily tilted in favour of China. In fact, China has emerged the second-largest trading partner of India.

In 2024-25, India's exports to China shrunk 14.5% to $14.25 billion as against $16.66 billion in 2023-24. Imports, however, rose 11.52 per cent in 2024-25 to $113.45 billion against $101.73 billion in 2023-24. The trade deficit was widened to $99.2 billion in 2024-25 from $85 billion in 2023-24.

During April-January 2025-26, India's exports to China rose 38.37% to $15.88 billion, while imports rose 13.82% to $108.18 billion. Trade deficit stood at $02.3 billion.

According to Exim Bank of India data, cumulative inflows of FDI into India from Bangladesh during April 2000- March 2020 amounted to $0.1 million.

Cumulative Foreign Direct Investment from India to Bangladesh has more than doubled from $243.91 million in 2014 to $570.11 million in December 2018. Indian companies have invested in various sectors, including telecommunications, pharmaceuticals, FMCG and automobile sectors in Bangladesh.

During Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's visit in April 2017, 13 agreements worth around $10 billion of Indian investment mainly in power and energy sectors in Bangladesh, were signed.

Billions of dollars have already been spent by the United States on weapons in the war with Iran, making war a highly profitable business for defence contractors.

Last week, stock prices for major US arms-producing companies rose, including Northrop Grumman (up 5%), RTX (up 4.5%) and Lockheed Martin (up 3%).

In 2024, the top 100 defence companies in the world generated more than $679b in revenue, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).

European heavyweights such as the UK's BAE Systems, Italy's Leonardo, the trans-European Airbus, France's Thales and Germany's Rheinmetall are among the top 20 companies, with many expanding amid the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Largest US defence contractors

According to SIPRI's report, 39 US contractors appear on its list of the top 100 defence companies, far exceeding China's eight groups.

The five largest US defence companies are Lockheed Martin, RTX, Northrop Grumman, General Dynamics and Boeing.

Lockheed Martin, the world's largest defence contractor formed in 1995 through the merger of Lockheed and Martin Marietta, generated $68.4b in revenue in 2024 and manufactures aircraft such as the F-35 as well as missile and space systems.

RTX, created in 2020 after the merger of Raytheon and United Technologies, focuses on missile systems, jet engines and avionics, with $43.6b of its 2024 revenue coming from defence.

Northrop Grumman, formed in 1994 after Northrop acquired Grumman, produces stealth aircraft such as the B-21 Raider and develops space and nuclear modernisation systems, earning $37.9b from defence in 2024.

General Dynamics develops nuclear submarines, battle tanks and armoured vehicles and recorded $33.6b in defence revenue in 2024.

Boeing, founded in 1916, generates revenue from commercial aircraft production as well as defence and space programmes including the F/A-18E/F Super Hornet, AH-64 Apache and P-8 Poseidon, with $30.6b coming from defence in 2024.

Israel's major defence firms

According to SIPRI, three Israeli companies appear on the list of the world's top 100 defence companies.

Elbit Systems, Israel's largest defence company, specialises in drones, surveillance systems and battlefield electronics, generating $6.3b from defence in 2024.

Israel Aerospace Industries focuses on missile defence systems, satellites, combat drones and radar technology and earned $5.2b from defence.

Rafael, the developer of Israel's Iron Dome missile defence system, generated $4.7b from defence in 2024.

Defence spending and stock growth

According to SIPRI, global defence spending rose 9.4% in 2024 to reach $2.7 trillion.

NATO members have also pledged to increase their defence budgets from 2% to 5% of GDP by 2035, adding hundreds of billions of dollars in annual spending.

To replenish rapidly depleting munitions used in the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, major weapons contractors are investing billions in new orders, responding to rising demand and driving up their stock prices.

From March 2023 to March 2026, RTX recorded the largest stock increase among major US contractors at 110%, followed by Northrop Grumman at 60%, General Dynamics at 57%, Lockheed Martin at 37% and Boeing at 5%.

Governments scrambled to limit the impact on economies and consumers from the widening Iran war, which fuelled a record surge in oil prices on Monday after key producers cut output and Tehran signalled that hardliners would remain in charge.

In a sign of mounting governmental concern over supply disruptions, the Group of Seven finance ministers will discuss the possibility of a joint release of emergency oil reserves in a meeting on Monday, a French government source said.

In South Korea, which buys 70% of its oil from the Middle East, President Lee Jae Myung said Seoul would cap fuel prices for the first time in nearly 30 years and he warned against panic buying.

Speaking at an emergency meeting, Lee called the crisis "a significant burden on our economy, which is highly dependent on global trade and energy imports from the Middle East."

A senior Japanese member of Parliament on Sunday said the government had instructed a national oil reserve storage site to prepare for a possible crude release, although the country's chief cabinet secretary later said no decision had been made to release stockpiles.

Japan imports around 95% of its oil from the Middle East. It has reserves to cover 354 days of consumption.

Elsewhere, Vietnam removed import tariffs on fuels and Bangladesh shut universities to conserve electricity and fuel, while China last week asked refiners to halt fuel exports and try to cancel shipments that were already committed.

Trump downplays US price surge

President Donald Trump tried to downplay concerns about rising US gasoline prices, which were up 11% for the week on Friday, while Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer called on him to sell oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

"Short term oil prices, which will drop rapidly when the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat is over, is a very small price to pay for USA, and World, Safety and Peace," Trump posted on Truth Social on Sunday night. "ONLY FOOLS WOULD THINK DIFFERENTLY!"

Oil jumped 25%, with Brent on track for a record one-day gain, while OPEC producers Kuwait and Iraq cut output over the weekend as the crucial Strait of Hormuz remained effectively shut.

Brent jumps 25% on supply fears

Across Asia, which sources 60% of its oil from the Middle East, equities slid and the dollar rose as worries grew that the disruption in energy supplies could be prolonged.

Iran on Monday named Mojtaba Khamenei to succeed his father Ali Khamenei as supreme leader, a move that is expected to draw Trump's ire. Weekend attacks on Iranian oil storage facilities fuelled fears of retaliatory strikes on energy facilities.

In Bahrain, Bapco Energies declared force majeure on Monday following an attack on its refinery complex, the company said.

"Oil prices have now gathered all the ingredients for a perfect storm - Middle East Gulf producers cutting output, the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz ... all compounded by a growing pessimism about a quick turnaround in the current situation," said Kpler senior oil analyst Muyu Xu.

Iraq cut oil production at its main southern oilfields by 70% to 1.3 million barrels per day, three industry sources said on Sunday, while Kuwait Petroleum Corp began cutting oil output on Saturday and declared force majeure.

No. 2 LNG exporter Qatar has already halted exports of the superchilled fuel and analysts predict that the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia will also have to cut output soon as they run out of oil storage due to the Strait of Hormuz closure.

When tensions escalate among global and regional powers, the shockwaves ripple through oil markets, shipping lanes, labour migration routes, and financial systems, reaching economies thousands of kilometres away.

The US-Israel war on Iran is rapidly emerging as one of the most significant geopolitical crises for the global economy in recent years, sending tremors through markets and supply chains.

Although the fighting is roughly 4,000 kilometres from Bangladesh, economists say the impact could be substantial for a nation heavily reliant on imported fuel and remittances from workers in the Middle East.

According to economists, the crisis due to the war risks setting off a chain reaction: rising energy prices, disrupted trade flows, weakened export competitiveness, turmoil in the migrant labour market and remittance inflows, higher inflation, and renewed pressure on foreign exchange reserves amid a constrained fiscal space.

Zahid Hussain, former lead economist of the World Bank’s Dhaka office, said Bangladesh’s economic exposure could unfold through three channels: energy, the dollar, and trade and finance.

He compared the potential shock of the war to an earthquake rather than a passing storm.

A storm passes temporarily, Hussain said. “Water rises and then recedes. Some damage happens, but the situation stabilises. But an earthquake damages the underlying infrastructure, affecting both life and property.”

The economist said the scale of the impact will depend on both the intensity and duration of the war.

“The key question is not only the magnitude of the shock, but also how long it lasts. The longer it continues, the greater the damage,” he said.

ENERGY SHOCK LOOMS

The most immediate and potentially severe impact of the Iran war is on global oil markets, with the price surging to $119 as of yesterday compared to around $72 per barrel a year ago.

The Gulf region sits at the heart of the world’s energy supply chain.

Following last week’s US and Israel’s attack on Iran, Tehran blocked the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial maritime route, seriously disrupting cargo transport between the Middle East and Bangladesh.

Major shipping lines have suspended cargo bookings between the Indian subcontinent, including Bangladesh, and the Gulf.

For Bangladesh, the consequences could be painful.

The country imports almost all its fuel -- from crude oil to refined petroleum and liquefied natural gas (LNG). A spike in oil prices would immediately inflate the country’s energy import bill.

Long queues have already appeared at fuel stations across the country as panic buying spreads, while the government has closed universities and introduced fuel rationing to cushion the fallout.

Higher fuel prices would also increase costs for electricity generation, transportation, and industrial production.

In that case, the government, already struggling to manage energy subsidies, would face difficult choices: absorb the cost through larger subsidies or pass it on to consumers through higher fuel and power prices.

Both carry economic consequences, such as rising subsidies straining public finances, while higher domestic energy prices push up living costs and production expenses.

INFLATION COULD GO WILD, AGAIN

Energy shocks rarely stay confined to the power sector; instead, they ripple through the entire economy.

Bangladesh has been struggling with stubbornly high inflation for around three years. Inflation was above the 9 percent mark from March 2023, easing slightly in 2025, and showing a resurgence recently.

The drivers for renewed price pressure include high food prices, currency depreciation, and rising import costs.

A further rise in global oil prices would amplify these pressures by raising transport and logistics costs across supply chains.

Higher fuel costs affect everything from agricultural irrigation to the distribution of essential commodities, potentially pushing food inflation higher and squeezing household purchasing power.

This dynamic could leave the economy facing elevated inflation alongside slowing growth.

After months of easing, headline inflation reached a 10-month high in February due mainly to rising food prices, according to the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS).

FOREIGN EXCHANGE UNDER STRAIN

Energy imports are one of Bangladesh’s largest sources of foreign currency outflows. A prolonged rise in oil prices would add pressure on the country’s foreign exchange reserves.

Bangladesh has previously faced periods of reserve stress due to high import bills and currency volatility. Another energy shock could widen the current account deficit, increasing the cost of fuel imports.

As demand for dollars rises, the Bangladeshi taka may face renewed depreciation, further raising the domestic price of imported goods and reinforcing inflation.

REMITTANCE RISKS

Bangladesh’s large migrant workforce in the Middle East is another vulnerability. Since fiscal year 2025, around 86 lakh Bangladeshi workers have gone abroad for jobs, with Saudi Arabia employing nearly half.

Middle Eastern countries, including Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Kuwait, account for around 75 percent of overseas employment, according to the Bangladesh Economic Review 2025.

If the conflict escalates, economic activity in the Gulf could slow, threatening employment for migrant workers and reducing remittance inflows.

Even a moderate slowdown would put additional pressure on Bangladesh’s external balance, as remittances play a crucial role in offsetting the country’s large import bill.

The war could also disrupt global trade routes. During geopolitical tension, shipping companies often raise insurance premiums, and freight rates increase if vessels reroute to avoid conflict zones.

For Bangladesh’s export-oriented industries, particularly the ready-made garment sector, higher logistics costs could reduce competitiveness. Importers would also face higher charges for essential commodities, machinery, and industrial inputs, feeding through into domestic prices.

Bangladesh’s energy system remains fragile. Power generation depends heavily on imported fuels and LNG.

Tight global gas markets or surging LNG prices could make affordable supply difficult, leading to potential power shortages or higher generation costs. Such disruptions could affect industrial production, especially in energy-intensive sectors such as manufacturing and textiles.

“The first risk is energy, both in terms of price increases and availability,” said economist Hussain.

“Even if you are willing to pay a higher price, you may not be able to secure supply. If energy supply is disrupted, the real economy, agriculture, industry and services, comes under risk,” he added.

The economist also warned of mounting pressure on the US dollar. “As global uncertainty rises, the dollar strengthens and our import bill increases,” Hussain said.

“Even if the volume of imports does not rise, the total bill will increase, meaning we will have to spend more local currency to buy the same amount of dollars. That will further fuel inflation.”

A stronger dollar could complicate external payments.

“When dollars become scarce, settlement of outstanding payments becomes difficult, and payment obligations start to accumulate,” he said, adding that this could create pressure on banks’ balance sheets and the government budget.

The third channel is trade and financial flows, particularly higher logistics costs.

“Freight charges, port costs and insurance premiums are already rising, which increases payments under the services account of the balance of payments,” Hussain said. “Individually, these costs may seem small, but collectively they create significant pressure.”

He also flagged risks to remittance flows.

“There are two risks for remittances. First, employment and wage risks for migrant workers if the conflict spreads, and second, possible disruptions in payment systems that could affect money transfers,” he said.

“The external balance, financial sector and energy supply are all exposed, and their combined impact will eventually affect the real economy -- growth, employment and wages,” Hussain added.

BANGLADESH NEEDS A CONTINGENCY PLAN

Mustafizur Rahman, distinguished fellow at the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), said Bangladesh should prepare a contingency plan to deal with emerging risks.

“We need to think about how to use the foreign financing already in the pipeline so that pressure on foreign exchange reserves remains limited,” he said. Once these funds arrive, they could add several billion dollars to reserves, easing external pressure.

Rahman also called for mobilising additional support, including budgetary assistance from institutions such as the World Bank.

“If fuel import costs surge, it will be very difficult to manage through reserves alone,” he said. “In that case, we may need financing arrangements such as import credit facilities from institutions like the Islamic Development Bank. Preparing a contingency plan in advance would be a prudent step.”

Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury, when asked about the potential impact of the war and whether austerity measures were being considered, did not provide a detailed response.

“We are working on this issue,” he told The Daily Star.

The government must address seven major economic challenges, including persistent inflation and energy constraints, through coordinated reforms to restore growth and strengthen economic resilience, speakers said yesterday.

Bangladesh’s economy faces multiple structural obstacles, as highlighted at the launch of a publication by the Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce and Industry (MCCI) titled “Reviving Private Sector-Led Economic Growth: Critical Issues and Priorities Facing the New Government in Bangladesh”, organised jointly with Policy Exchange Bangladesh in Dhaka yesterday.

The report identifies seven priority reform areas: macroeconomic stabilisation, fiscal management, financial sector reform, export competitiveness and diversification, revitalising private investment, energy security and skills development for employment.

Presenting the report, M Masrur Reaz said Bangladesh’s economic management requires an integrated approach as multiple structural constraints are slowing investment, exports and job creation.

He said the country entered a macroeconomic crisis in mid-2022 when inflation rose to around 13-14 percent, foreign exchange reserves dropped from nearly $48 billion to about $19 billion, and the taka depreciated sharply.

Although reserves have recovered to around $28-29 billion, major vulnerabilities remain.

Economic growth has slowed to about 3.49 percent, while the tax-GDP ratio has fallen to around 7 percent and debt servicing now accounts for roughly 21 percent of the national budget.

Private investment has declined from 24.9 percent to 22.5 percent of GDP, while foreign direct investment remains below 1 percent of GDP. Export concentration is another concern, with the readymade garment sector accounting for about 81 percent of exports.

The report recommends key reforms within the government’s first 100 days, including improving macroeconomic coordination, adopting a market-based exchange rate and launching investment climate reforms to restore investor confidence and revive growth.

Hossain Zillur Rahman, executive chairman of the Power and Participation Research Centre, said the private sector must re-establish an independent and constructive voice in national policymaking following the political transition.

He noted that during the previous long period of authoritarian governance, many private sector bodies lost their independent voice and became extensions of political processes.

Dewan Hanif Mahmud, editor of The Daily Bonik Barta, said Bangladesh should conduct forensic audits of major state-owned institutions to understand the true condition of the economy.

He stressed that forensic audits should be carried out in key state entities, including banks and energy institutions, to determine their financial health and asset quality.

Kamran T Rahman said Bangladesh’s economic recovery remains fragile despite some easing of balance of payments pressure and inflation.

He warned that LDC graduation will bring new challenges, including reduced preferential market access, tougher compliance requirements and sharper global competition.

Habibullah N Karim, vice president of MCCI, and Farooq Ahmed, secretary general and CEO of MCCI, also spoke at the event.

The Bangladesh Bank (BB) has relaxed rules allowing foreign investors to repatriate proceeds up to Tk 100 crore from sales and share transfers without prior approval.

The central bank issued a circular on Sunday, saying banks can now independently process such repatriations if the fair value of the transaction is determined by an independent valuer using approved valuation methods.

Previously, banks could approve transactions of only up to Tk 10 crore, with most cases requiring central bank permission.

The relaxed rules apply to both state-owned and private companies that are not listed on stock exchanges.

The central bank said the move aims to simplify procedures and make the country a more attractive destination for foreign direct investment.

For deals where the transaction value does not exceed the net asset value (NAV) based on the latest audited financial statements, banks can approve repatriation regardless of the amount involved.

For smaller transactions of up to Tk 1 crore, investors no longer need to provide an independent valuation report.

To ensure proper oversight, the circular instructs banks to form internal committees to verify valuation reports and approve repatriation requests.

For small transactions, the committee must be led by the chief financial officer, while deals of up to Tk 100 crore require the chief executive officer’s leadership. Members with professional qualifications, such as CFA certification, must be included.

The circular also introduces procedural improvements to speed up transfers. Banks must complete repatriation within five working days if no discrepancies are found.

The overall share transfer process must be finalised within 45 days of signing the memorandum of understanding or receiving BB approval, whichever comes later.

The escalating crisis in the Middle East has dramatically changed the outlook for Asian central banks, with the huge supply shock posing a difficult trade-off ​between underpinning growth and countering inflation.

For emerging Asian central banks, cutting interest rates has become a risky bet not just because of the added price pressure from higher ‌fuel costs, but the risk of triggering capital outflows through worsening terms of trade with the US.

The Reserve Bank of India, for one, expects to focus more on supporting growth by keeping interest rates low, sources have told Reuters. But a rush towards the safe-haven dollar, which is intensifying from the US-Iran war, may force it to ramp up intervention to prop up its weakening currency.

"We don't see a possibility of a near-term rate hike in India - we do not ​see retail fuel prices moving higher immediately," said Suvodeep Rakshit, economist at Mumbai-based Kotak Institutional Equities.

"At this stage, the immediate priority of the central bank will be what happens on FX. ​We expect them to continue intervening to curb volatility there. An afterthought will be the liquidity impact of that intervention and they will infuse liquidity ⁠as needed."

Thailand and the Philippines may be forced to reverse their dovish monetary policy stance, even as rising fuel costs hurt their economies, said Toru Nishihama, chief emerging market economist at Dai-ichi Life ​Research Institute in Tokyo.Market Research Reports

"Many central banks will face a tough decision as they come under pressure from both markets and governments," Nishihama said. "With no clear end in sight to the conflict, the risk of stagflation ​is heightening day by day."

Share markets plunged and the safe-haven US dollar rose in Asia on Monday as oil surged past $110 a barrel, stoking fears of a protracted Middle East war on global energy supplies and higher inflation that may force central banks to hike rates.

The trade-off is particularly acute for manufacturing-heavy economies like South Korea and Japan, which are dependent on global trade, stable markets and cheap raw material costs - all being undermined by the widening Middle ​East crisis.

South Korea's central bank, which kept rates steady in February, could take a more hawkish stance if inflation persistently stays a percentage point above its target, said Citigroup economist Kim Jin-wook.

"For now, ​we continue to believe BoK is unlikely to hike policy rate in response to a higher-than-expected oil price," with government steps to curb fuel prices limiting the pass through of oil moves on inflation, Kim said.

'THINK OF THE ‌UNTHINKABLE'

Developed market ⁠central banks, such as the Federal Reserve, also face a tricky act balancing growth, inflation and increasing political pressure.

The dilemma runs deep for the Bank of Japan. If crude oil prices stay at $110 for a year, that could knock 0.39 of a percentage point off growth, according to Nomura Research Institute, a huge blow to an economy with subdued potential growth of around 0.5 per cent to 1 per cent.Global Economy Insights

But unlike in the past when it could afford to pause rate hikes, the BOJ has less room now to look through price pressures with inflation having exceeded its 2 per cent target for nearly four years.

That means the BOJ will have little ​choice but to repeat its mantra of continued ​rate hikes, while staying mum on the timing ⁠of such a move that could draw the ire of an administration hostile to higher borrowing costs, analysts say.

Australia and New Zealand are typical of how economies in different cycles put policymakers in a difficult bind.

Sustained oil price hikes risk de-anchoring price expectations in Australia, where inflation is already elevated, said ​Jonathan Kearns, chief economist at Challenger who is also a former Reserve Bank of Australia official.

"If inflation expectations increase, which they obviously could in ​this period where we've had ⁠high inflation, that will mean that the Reserve Bank would need to have interest rates higher for longer in order to bring inflation back down."

New Zealand faces a different challenge as the economy has struggled to recover from the hit from past rate hikes.

"We suspect central banks, and the RBNZ in particular, may well have to tolerate higher inflation in the short run to avoid tightening into a slowing global economy," said Jarrod ⁠Kerr, chief ​economist at Kiwibank.

International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said on Monday a 10 per cent rise in oil prices, if persistent through ​most of the year, would result in a 40-basis-point increase in global inflation.

"We are seeing resilience tested again by the new conflict in the Middle East," Georgieva said in a symposium in Tokyo. "My advice to policymakers in this new global environment is ​think of the unthinkable and prepare for it."

Bangladesh has floated tenders to buy three more liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes from the spot market for April delivery in a desperate race to secure gas amid deepening turmoil in the Middle East.

State-run Rupantarita Prakritik Gas Co Ltd (RPGCL) sought delivery of the LNG cargoes in three phases between April 5 and April 13, a move that came four days after the company floated tenders to buy two cargoes of gas for March 15-16 and March 18-19 deliveries.

Bangladesh had to buy two LNG cargoes from the spot market after failing to attract bidders for two consecutive days, although at more than double the normal rate.

The move comes amid uncertainty over the timely arrival of LNG shipments from Qatar, as shipping in the Gulf remains severely disrupted after Tehran threatened to "set fire" to vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, while the US-Israeli war with Iran continues for a tenth day.

Located between Oman and Iran, and connecting the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea, the strait is one of the world's most important oil chokepoints.

Bangladesh meets nearly 30 percent of its gas demand, equivalent to 2,650 mmcfd, through imported LNG as domestic output continues to fall short.

The country also spends roughly $1 billion per year to import more than 60 lakh tonnes of petroleum and relies heavily on the Hormuz route. It sources most petroleum from the Middle East, and more than half of LNG imports in 2025 passed through this chokepoint.

Oil prices surged over $119 a barrel, hitting ‌levels not seen since mid-2022, on Monday as some major producers cut supplies and fears of prolonged shipping disruptions gripped the market due to the expanding U.S.-Israeli war with Iran.
Brent crude futures were up $13.02, or 14%, at $105.71 per barrel at 0917 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were ​up $12.16, or 13%, at $103.06.
In a whiplash session, Brent had earlier hit a high of $119.50 a barrel, indicating the biggest-ever ​absolute price jump in a single day, and WTI reached $119.48 a barrel. Before the surge on Monday, ⁠Brent had already climbed 28% and WTI 36% over last week.
The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of the ​world's oil and liquefied natural gas typically passes, is virtually shut. Also boosting prices is the appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei to succeed his ​father Ali Khamenei as Iran's supreme leader, signalling that hardliners remain firmly in charge in Tehran a week into its conflict with the United States and Israel.
The war could leave consumers and businesses worldwide facing weeks or months of higher fuel prices even if the conflict, which started on ​February. 28, ends quickly, as suppliers grapple with damaged facilities, disrupted logistics and elevated risks to shipping.
U.S. gasoline contracts surged to ​their highest since 2022 at around $3.22 a gallon, at a time when U.S. President Donald Trump has told U.S. consumers the impact on ‌their cost ⁠of living would be limited ahead of mid-term elections in November.
Governments can release strategic petroleum reserves to counteract supply disruptions. U.S. Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer called on Trump to make such a move and a French government source said on Monday that the Group of Seven nations would discuss this also.

Islami Bank Bangladesh PLC has approved a proposal to bring US-based B100 Holdings LLC as a strategic investor in its mobile financial services subsidiary mCash Ltd, according to a price sensitive disclosure issued yesterday (8 March).

The decision was taken at the bank's board meeting held yesterday at its head office in Dhaka.

According to the statement, the bank approved the onboarding of B100 Holdings as a strategic partner in mCash Ltd, which operates the bank's mobile financial services platform, subject to compliance with applicable legal and regulatory requirements.

As part of the plan, the paid-up capital of mCash will be increased in phases to Tk500 crore, with Islami Bank maintaining a minimum 51% equity stake in the company. B100 Holdings may acquire up to 48.99% ownership through the subscription of shares, subject to approval from the mCash board and relevant regulatory authorities.

The proposed investment is expected to strengthen the capital base of mCash and support the expansion of digital financial services under its mobile financial services platform.

A day after a massive bloodbath at the Dhaka bourse, stocks rebounded yesterday as the sell-off largely subsided and buyers dominated the market.

The DSEX, the benchmark index of the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE), surged 132 points, or 2.64%, with more than 90% of the traded stocks advancing on the bourse, although turnover fell by 22%, data showed.

On Sunday (8 March), the first trading session of the week, stocks suffered the highest single-day fall in six years as escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East triggered panic selling across the market.

The index plunged 231 points, or 4.42%, to close at 5,008, hitting a two-month low and marking the biggest one-day decline since the Covid-19 pandemic era.

Market insiders said Sunday's sell-off was mostly panic driven assuming fuel crisis significantly may hit businesses due to Middle East conflict. After the conflict began, stocks witnessed bearish trends as cautious investors preferred to pull-off funds selling shares.

"Stocks declined significantly in recent trading sessions due to heavy sell-offs. As investors offloaded shares in previous sessions, funds generated from those sales were reinvested in the market, which helped stocks rebound," said the managing director of a brokerage firm.

The port city bourse, Chittagong Stock Exchange (CSE), settled on a positive territory. The Selective Categories' Index (CSCX) and All Share Price Index (CASPI) advanced by 51.9 points and 82.6 points, respectively.

Bank stock save indices

The data showed that stocks began trading on the red pulling DSEX below 5,000 points marks. Six minutes later after starting trades, stock climbed to green as sell-offs reversed into buy domination, and continued till 10.22am with DSEX increasing 100 points.

After that a wave of sell-off again gripped the market, the bank stocks saved the indices as share prices of some large cap stocks including Islami Bank, BRAC Bank, City Bank and Pubali Bank increased.

According to LankaBangla financial portal, the four banks pulled DSEX by 54 points with a total increase of 132 points.

At the DSE, shares of 36 banks listed, but trading continued for 31 banks as shares trading of five Islamic banks suspended as the banks were merged into a one entity namely Sammilito Islami Bank.

On Sunday, the share price of 39 banks increased, only a bank share declined and shares price remained unchanged for a bank.

EBL Securities said, the capital bourse staged a partial rebound following the steep selloff in recent sessions, as bargain hunters turned back to accumulate equities at attractive price points; however, overall investor participation remained subdued amid lingering uncertainties surrounding the ongoing Middle East conflict.

It said, market indices maintained an upbeat trajectory throughout the session, supported by broad-based price appreciation across most scrips. However, cautious investors remained on the sidelines, closely monitoring market direction amid the absence of any visible progress toward a resolution or ceasefire in the ongoing conflict.

Apparently, market turnover decreased by 21.8% to Tk4.2 billion from Tk5.3 billion in the previous session. On the sectoral front, Bank stocks accounted for the highest share of turnover by 25.5%, followed by Pharma by 19.3% and Textile by 8.9%.

Gainers, losers

Islami Bank Bangladesh topped the gainer list hitting upper circuit, a highest single day limit capped by the regulator, by 9.89% to Tk41.10 each at the DSE.

Followed by City Bank by 8.24% to Tk30.2 each, AB Bank by 8.19% to Tk6.6 each, EBL NRB Mutual Fund by 8% to Tk2.7 each, and First Bangladesh Fixed Income Fund by 8% to Tk2.7 each.

While on the losing side, Green Delta Insurance topped the loser list as its shares price fell by 7.10% to Tk52.3 each, followed by Vanguard AML Rupali Bank Balanced Fund by 5.35% to Tk5.3 each, Dulamia Cotton Spinning Mills by 5.32% to Tk112 each, Renwick Jajneswar by 1.93% to Tk521.8 each, and Golden Jubilee Mutual Fund by 1.69% to Tk5.8 each.

Islami Bank Bangladesh PLC has approved a proposal to bring little-known US-based B100 Holdings LLC as a strategic investor in its mobile financial services subsidiary mCash Ltd, aiming to strengthen the platform's capital base and expand its digital financial services.

The decision was taken at a board meeting of Islami Bank Bangladesh PLC held at its head office in Dhaka on Sunday, according to a price-sensitive disclosure issued the same day.

Under the proposal, the New York-based B100 Holdings will join as a strategic partner in mCash Ltd, which operates the bank's mobile financial services platform. The investment will be subject to compliance with legal and regulatory requirements and approvals from relevant authorities.

Following the announcement, Islami Bank's share price rose 9.89% on the Dhaka Stock Exchange yesterday, reaching Tk41.10. The bank's market capitalisation increased by around Tk690 crore to Tk6,617 crore.

According to the disclosure, the paid-up capital of mCash will be increased in phases to Tk500 crore. Islami Bank will retain at least 51% ownership of the subsidiary, while B100 Holdings may acquire up to 48.99% of shares through subscription, subject to approval from the mCash board and regulators.

Under rules set by Bangladesh Bank, commercial banks must hold a minimum 51% stake in mobile financial service providers. Islami Bank said it would comply with the requirement while allowing the foreign investor to hold a maximum of 48.99% of shares.

Based on the proposed capital structure, B100 Holdings could invest nearly Tk245 crore in the company.

Omar Faruk Khan, managing director of Islami Bank, said the proposal originated from the US firm.

"They approached us with the investment proposal and our board has accepted it in principle because they committed to bring funds as needed, potentially from the Middle East," Omar told The Business Standard.

He said the bank would now examine the firm's financial strength and capability before finalising any agreement.

"At this stage, we are still in the initial phase. After reviewing their strength and ability, we will make the final decision regarding the partnership," he added.

Omar also acknowledged that mCash has struggled to secure a strong position in the market since its launch more than a decade ago.

"Despite operating for over ten years, mCash remains in a relatively weak position compared to other mobile financial service providers. Our goal is to develop mCash into a competitive platform similar to bKash, the country's leading MFS provider," he said.

To achieve that goal, the bank plans to increase investment in the platform and bring in a strategic partner capable of supporting long-term expansion.

Limited information about US investor

Public information about B100 Holdings, however, remains limited. According to the New York company registry, the firm was established on 22 December 2025 in New York. Arman Chowdhury is listed as its co-founder and chairperson.

Several stock market analysts contacted by The Business Standard said they were unfamiliar with both the individual and the newly formed investment firm.

Information available online indicates that Arman has been serving as national executive director of the Muslim Ummah of North America since 2021. He is also associated with New York's Baitul Mamur Masjid and Community Center as its president.

According to the company's website, B100 Holdings aims to invest in Bangladesh's economic infrastructure by supporting 100 large business enterprises through institutional capital, governance frameworks, and operational expertise.

The firm describes itself as a principal investor and long-term sponsor that deploys capital on a deal-by-deal basis alongside select institutional partners.

It says this model allows it to focus on long-term value creation without the constraints of traditional fund cycles or forced exits.

Islami Bank launched the mCash service in December 2012 and operated the platform directly through its own infrastructure for more than a decade. In January this year, the bank spun off the service into a separate subsidiary to strengthen governance and attract external investment.

The newly formed mCash Ltd has an authorised capital of Tk1,000 crore and an initial paid-up capital of Tk50 crore.

Iran has agreed to provide Bangladeshi oil ships with safe passage as the Bangladesh government has intensified efforts to maintain a stable fuel supply through multiple strategic measures amid escalating conflict in the Middle East.

Bangladesh has sought assurances from Iran for the safe passage of its oil and LNG-carrying vessels through the Strait of Hormuz as escalating conflict in the Middle East threatens one of the world's most critical energy shipping routes.

Iran has agreed that Bangladeshi ships will be allowed to pass through the strategic waterway after notifying Iranian authorities before entering the strait, energy officials said, easing immediate concerns over the country's fuel supply.

Meanwhile, a vessel carrying 27,000 tonnes of diesel arrived at Chattogram port from Singapore yesterday, and four more ships carrying 1,20,205 tonnes of fuel are scheduled to arrive at the port later this week, energy officials have said.

They said to meet April's demand, the Ministry of Power, Energy and Mineral Resources has begun the process of importing 3 lakh tonnes of diesel from alternative sources through direct procurement.

An official said Bangladesh is planning direct procurement outside long-term contracts, as deliveries under existing agreements have become uncertain following the war.

Under normal circumstances, the country's daily diesel demand is 12,000 tonnes, but the government is currently supplying 9,000 tonnes per day. If the current supply continues, the five incoming shipments totalling 147,205 tonnes will cover 16 days of national demand.

On Monday morning, Mohammad Arif Sadek, the ministry's public relations officer, confirmed the arrival of a fuel vessel at Chattogram port and said another ship was expected on Monday night.

China and India signal support

India and China have also expressed willingness to assist Bangladesh in supplying fuel. Finance Minister Amir Khasru confirmed seeking cooperation from India and China to ensure energy security, stating:

"Not only India and China, we have approached several countries to secure fuel supplies and maintain communication with them. There is no reason for a fuel crisis."

After a meeting with Finance Minister Amir Khasru Mahmud Chowdhury and Energy Minister Tuku yesterday, the ambassador China Yao Wen confirmed his country's interest in supporting Bangladesh.

After the meeting, Yao Wen said Bangladesh and China will work together to resolve fuel issues, and China is eager to provide fuel assistance.

Option to import more diesel from India

Under an existing agreement between BPC and India's Numaligarh Refinery Limited, the Indian state-owned refinery is scheduled to supply 180,000 tonnes of diesel annually through the India-Bangladesh Friendship Pipeline.

Of this volume, around 120,000 tonnes have already been confirmed, but Bangladesh still has the option to import an additional 60,000 tonnes depending on its demand.

According to BPC officials, the additional supply being explored would mainly cover the last week of March and the entire month of April, as two diesel cargoes scheduled for early March failed to arrive within their delivery windows.

Monir Hossain Chowdhury, Joint Secretary (Operations) of the Energy Division, told TBS that several suppliers have proactively offered to sell fuel to Bangladesh. The BPC will review these offers and forward them to the ministry for approval.

4 more tankers due this week

Port sources said tanker Xiu Chi, carrying 27,204 tonnes of diesel from Singapore, entered Chattogram port yesterday. Shipping agents said four more diesel tankers are scheduled to arrive in the coming days.

Another tanker, Lian Huan Hu, was expected to reach the port last night from Singapore with nearly 30,000 tonnes of diesel. The tanker SPT Themis is scheduled to arrive on Thursday carrying 30,484 tonnes.

Tanker carrying 27,000 tonnes of diesel reaches Ctg Port, 4 more due this week

Two additional vessels – Raffles Samurai and Chang Hang Hong Tu – are expected to reach the port on Saturday, each carrying around 30,000 tonnes of diesel.

Nazrul Islam, managing director of Pride Shipping, the local agent for the four tankers, told TBS that the vessels are expected to arrive within a week according to schedule.

Emergency imports under consideration

Amid supply uncertainty, the government has moved to secure around 300,000 tonnes of diesel from alternative suppliers outside its existing long-term contracts.

Officials said the fuel will be procured through the direct procurement method (DPM) to expedite the process. Discussions are currently underway with several North American suppliers to arrange emergency diesel shipments.

Speaking to TBS on Sunday, Energy Secretary Md Saiful Islam said the government is exploring every available option to ensure adequate diesel supply for April.

"So far we don't have that many problems in March. Keeping the supply uncertainty from long term contracts, we are exploring all sources to ensure around 3 lakh tonnes of diesel under DPM so that there is no disruption in the supply chain," he said.

Regarding when the supply will be confirmed from alternative sources, the energy secretary said, "We are trying to confirm delivery as soon as possible."

The authorities began exploring alternative sourcing options early, anticipating the lengthy approval process required for emergency purchases.

"There is an approval process involving the government's purchase committee. That is why we started the process earlier," Saiful Islam said.

Currently, Bangladesh imports refined petroleum products from eight countries – Malaysia, the United Arab Emirates, China, Indonesia, Thailand, India, Oman and Kuwait.

However, officials noted that a significant portion of petrol and octane is produced locally, helping reduce reliance on imports for these products.

Import disrupted

According to a fuel import scenario prepared by BPC on 7 March and presented before Prime Minister Tarique Rahman, the country planned to import 293,000 tonnes of diesel in March.

However, around 60,000 tonnes of diesel cargoes have either been deferred or cancelled, raising concerns about supply stability.

In its briefing to the prime minister, BPC noted that despite having contracts with suppliers from both the Near East and the Far East, geopolitical developments have made fuel supply increasingly uncertain.

In one instance, Singapore-based Vitol Asia cancelled a scheduled octane shipment for March, citing geopolitical risks in the Middle East.

According to BPC data as of 7 March, Bangladesh currently has 129,000 tonnes of diesel in reserve, which is enough to meet demand for around 14 days. The country also has 23,000 tonnes of octane, sufficient for about 25 days, and 15,000 tonnes of petrol, enough for roughly 15 days.

In addition, BPC reported 67,000 tonnes of furnace oil in reserve, which could last about 49 days, while Jet A-1 aviation fuel reserves stand at around 60,000 tonnes, also enough for roughly 49 days.

Mobile courts launched nationwide

To ensure uninterrupted fuel supply, the Cabinet Division has instructed all deputy commissioners to operate mobile courts across the country. This directive was issued in a letter from the Cabinet Division on Monday.

District authorities have been directed to take necessary measures accordingly.

Additionally, the Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation (BPC) has established central and regional monitoring and control cells to closely track fuel supply, maintain market stability, and resolve complaints promptly.

Special attention is being given to ensure that fuel supply for irrigation during the ongoing Boro season is not disrupted.

The Bangladesh Independent Power Producers' Association (Bippa) has urged the government to clear outstanding power bills owed to private power plants, warning that delays could disrupt fuel imports and lead to load-shedding during the upcoming summer.

The association said power producers are struggling to open letters of credit (LCs) to import fuel due to delayed payments at a time when global energy markets remain volatile amid the ongoing Middle East conflict.

The appeal was made at a press conference held in the capital yesterday by Bippa, which represents privately owned power plants in the country. Former Bippa president Imran Karim presented an overview of the current power sector situation at the event.

Bippa said outstanding payments owed to private power producers have reached around Tk14,000 crore, making it increasingly difficult for companies to maintain operations.

Under existing power purchase agreements, electricity bills are supposed to be settled within 30 days, but payments are currently being delayed by 180 to 270 days, according to the association.

Such prolonged delays have created severe financial pressure for power plant operators, making it difficult to procure fuel and sustain electricity generation.

"If the payments are cleared, fuel can still be imported even under difficult global conditions, including the ongoing war situation," Imran said.

To address the issue, Bippa suggested that the government could adopt a similar approach to the one taken by the previous interim administration.

Imran noted that the interim government had earlier issued Tk5,000 crore in bonds to partially clear outstanding payments to power producers.

The move, along with regular bill payments afterward, helped stabilise the sector and ensured uninterrupted electricity supply during last summer, he said.

"As a result, there was no major load-shedding during last year's summer," Imran said, adding that the current government could also issue bonds or allocate funds to settle the dues and avoid a similar crisis this year.

Effective power capacity lower than installed capacity

Although Bangladesh's installed electricity generation capacity exceeds 28,000 megawatts (MW), a large portion of that capacity remains idle due to fuel shortages and other operational constraints, power plant owners noted.

According to Bippa, more than 6,000MW of generation capacity remains unused because of insufficient gas supply, while another 1,626MW is currently offline for maintenance.

In addition, solar power is unavailable at night, and many diesel-fired plants remain shut due to high operating costs.

As a result, the country's effective available capacity during peak demand stands at around 18,627MW, and actual generation could reach about 18,000MW if fuel supplies remain stable, Imran said.

Fuel costs rising faster than electricity tariffs

Imran also pointed out that global fuel price increases have significantly raised electricity generation costs.

According to his analysis, fuel costs for power generation have risen by about 95% over the past six years, while electricity tariffs have not increased at the same pace.

During the same period, operational costs of power plants have increased by 55%, adding further financial pressure on plant operators.

Meanwhile, about 70% of electricity consumption in Bangladesh occurs in residential, commercial, and agricultural sectors, where tariffs have increased by only 54% over the same period.

As a result, higher electricity generation would increase the government's subsidy burden, as production costs continue to rise faster than retail tariffs.

To ease pressure on electricity generation costs, Bippa called on the government to temporarily withdraw import duties on fuel used for power generation.

Specifically, the association proposed removing 34% duty on imported fuel oil and 22% duty on imported liquefied natural gas (LNG).

According to Bippa, such measures could help lower generation costs at a time when global energy prices remain volatile.

Gas shortages limiting power generation

Bippa President David Hasanat also noted that managing electricity demand during the upcoming summer could be challenging due to multiple constraints.

"The situation could become even more complicated due to the ongoing Iran war, which is affecting global fuel markets," he said.

Hasanat added that around 23% of the country's power plants are currently unable to operate due to gas shortages, further straining the electricity system. He noted that increasing gas supply in the short term remains difficult because of infrastructure limitations.

"There is no immediate scope to significantly increase gas supply, and the infrastructure needed to expand imports is also limited," he said.

Fuel reserves may last until early April

According to Imran, oil-based power plants currently have enough fuel reserves to operate until 7-10 April, although the situation may vary across facilities depending on individual fuel stocks.

"To keep these plants operational, it is essential to ensure a steady fuel supply and timely payment of bills," he said.

Responding to questions about reducing generation costs, Imran said operators of furnace-oil-based power plants have already made concessions.

He noted that the interim government had reduced the service charge on fuel imports from 9% to 5%, which plant owners accepted.

He also said power producers are not charging interest on overdue payments, despite bills remaining unpaid for up to nine months.

"In contrast, some suppliers in other sectors shut down operations due to unpaid bills, but private power plants have continued operating despite the outstanding dues," he said.

Despite the challenges, Hasanat said private power producers remain committed to supporting the government in maintaining the electricity supply.

"We are ready to support the government in maintaining a stable electricity supply. After all, if the country survives, we all will survive," he said.