Bangladesh’s remittance inflows have reached a historic high, recording US $3.62 billion in the first 30 days of March 2026.Bangladesh economic report

This surge, fueled by expatriates’ increasing transfers ahead of the Eid-ul-Fitr celebrations, has pushed the foreign exchange reserves to a robust $34.05 billion.

The March figure marks a significant 10.7 percent growth compared to the $3.27 billion received during the same period in 2025. This record-breaking performance in March 2026 contributes to an exceptional trajectory for the current fiscal year (FY 2025-26).

Cumulative remittance from July 2025 to March 28, 2026, has reached $26.07 billion, a staggering 19.8 percent increase over the $21.76 billion recorded during the corresponding period of FY 2024-25. Central bank officials attribute this record-breaking trend to the government’s 2.5 percent cash incentive on formal banking channels, which has effectively discouraged the informal “hundi” system.

Bolstered by the influx of foreign currency, Bangladesh’s gross foreign exchange reserves rose to $34.05 billion as of March 30, 2026. Under the IMF’s BPM6 manual, the reserves stood at $29.35 billion. This is a slight adjustment from mid-month figures, where gross reserves peaked at $34.22 billion on March 16.

The surge was most concentrated in the first half of the month, with expatriates sending home $2.20 billion in just the first 14 days—a 35.7 percent jump compared to the previous year. Industry insiders noted that Non-resident Bangladeshis (NRBs) traditionally ramp up transfers during Ramadan to support family festival expenses, providing a vital seasonal boost to the national economy.

Economists suggest that if this momentum continues, total remittance for FY 2025-26 will likely surpass all previous annual records. Such a milestone would further stabilize the exchange rate of the Taka and ease pressure on the country’s balance of payments amidst ongoing global economic volatility.

Weak, Z-category companies dominated the top gainers' list on the Dhaka Stock Exchange throughout March, according to a monthly report by Sheltech Brokerage Limited, raising fresh concerns about market trends.

Analysis of the report shows that share prices of these companies surged sharply without any corresponding improvement in fundamentals, earnings, or price-sensitive disclosures – indicating that the rally was largely driven by speculative demand rather than actual financial performance.

Analysts warn that such trends can distort the market's natural price discovery mechanism and pose risks to long-term stability.

Market insiders said the surge was mainly fuelled by short-term investors seeking quick gains. They channelled funds into low-priced, high-risk stocks, artificially boosting demand and pushing up prices.

The trend was further amplified by speculative trading, where investment decisions were driven by rumours, market trends, and herd behaviour instead of company fundamentals.

Despite ongoing global economic uncertainty linked to the Middle East conflict, a segment of investors shifted toward riskier stocks. Weak, closed, and Z-category companies, in particular, attracted heightened interest, as their low prices create the perception of higher return potential with limited capital – appealing especially to retail investors.

ILFSL topped the gainers' list, with its share price doubling by 100% to Tk3.20 during the month. Premier Leasing rose 83.33%, while PLFSL and Fareast Finance gained 76.47% each. FAS Finance advanced 70.59%, and HFL climbed 67.57%.

Other notable performers included Familytex, which rose 54.55%, IFIC First Mutual Fund, which gained 40%, Atlas Bangladesh, up 37.39%, and Peoples Leasing, which increased 34.09%.

Alongside the price surge, trading activity in these stocks also increased significantly. Familytex recorded a 611.99% jump in average turnover, while HFL and Atlas Bangladesh saw increases of 555.51% and 363.23%, respectively – reflecting strong speculative interest in low-priced shares.

Experts have urged regulators to strengthen market surveillance and advised investors to remain cautious. Instead of chasing short-term gains, they recommend focusing on company fundamentals, earnings quality, and long-term prospects when making investment decisions

Indonesia’s leader visited Tokyo this week in Asia’s latest flurry of fuel bartering efforts to offset crippling shortages caused by conflict in the Middle ​East, a key source of regional energy supplies.

The race for alternatives has hotted up as China, the world’s second largest economy, imposed fuel export bans, while nations such as ‌South Korea and Thailand try to exploit the lifting of US sanctions on Russian energy as a stopgap move.

Matters are getting desperate for poorer nations as the Philippines became the first to declare a national energy emergency, Sri Lanka cut its work week to four days and rationed fuel, and Myanmar limited car drivers to alternate days.

Southeast Asia’s biggest economy and the world’s fourth most populous country, Indonesia is also expected to announce curbs in coming days.

“To maintain rational economic ​relationships is of vital importance,” President Prabowo Subianto told Japanese business leaders in Tokyo after pacts signed on Monday covering long-term oil and gas and geothermal power projects.

“The geopolitical situation in ​the Middle East gives strategic uncertainty for the security of our energy.”

More immediately, Jakarta could strike a deal to beef up supplies of liquefied natural gas to Tokyo in exchange for liquefied petroleum gas, an essential cooking fuel, Djoko Siswanto, the head of oil and gas regulator SKK Migas, told Reuters on Monday.

While Prabowo and Japan’s Sanae Takaichi agreed ​to boost ties on energy security at a meeting on Tuesday, neither leader confirmed such a swap agreement.

Japan’s government-backed oil and gas producer Inpex is discussing a similar barter deal with India to swap LPG for ​naphtha and crude oil, according to an internal Japanese government document seen by Reuters.

Vietnam has also sought Japan’s help for energy supplies, it showed, while the Philippines said on Monday it had received diesel from Tokyo.

Japan’s trade minister stressed the importance of keeping up fuel supplies to Southeast Asian nations where it has supply chains, but declined to comment on specific deals.

Resource-poor Japan relies on the Middle East for about 95 percent of its oil and 11 of its imports ​of liquefied natural gas, though its energy stockpiles are among the world’s largest.

Australia’s position as a major energy producer and exporter should give it clout in talks with Asian partners for ​supplies of jet fuels that could soon run short, energy analysts said.

The government was engaging with major suppliers such as China, Singapore and South Korea, Foreign Minister Penny Wong said this month.

However, China has banned exports of refined ‌fuel, including jet fuel, to safeguard its economy from energy disruption.

That ban, and another by Thailand, have hit Vietnam especially hard, as the neighbours fill more than 60 percent of its jet fuel needs.

Vietnam’s aviation regulator urged authorities this month to seek additional jet fuel supplies from Brunei, India, Japan and South Korea.

Two-way deals with alternative suppliers should help ease shortages, but a longer war would require concerted efforts, said Hiroshi Hashimoto, senior fellow at Japan’s Institute of Energy Economics.

“If the crisis continues for a prolonged period, Asian countries may need to develop multilateral frameworks to help each other and talk to alternative supply sources.”

Russia could prove to be an unlikely supplier ​for some Asian countries, after the United States issued a temporary waiver of sanctions for its attack on Ukraine.

For the first time in years, South Korea imported Russian naphtha this week, a feedstock critical for making plastics used in everything from automobiles to electronics, and also seeks to secure crude oil, its energy ministry said.

India has stepped up purchases of oil ​from Russia, with which Bangladesh, Thailand and Sri Lanka are also in talks.

It could be challenging to finalise arrangements with Russian oil companies before ​the April 11 expiry of the US sanctions waiver, however, said Janaka Rajakaruna, chairman of Sri Lanka’s state-run Ceylon Petroleum Corp.

Small countries such as New Zealand are keenly aware they could be vulnerable amid a scramble for fuel set to get more frenetic in the next few months.

Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has spoken by telephone in recent weeks with the leaders of Singapore, Malaysia and South Korea, New Zealand’s three largest suppliers of refined products, as well as with ⁠the head ​of the European Commission.

Associate Energy Minister Shane Jones told Reuters he had also contacted big commodity traders, among others, in the ​effort to shore up fuel supplies.

“Unless you build options, we’re too small to get noticed in a maddening, frenzied search for fuel in another two or three months,” Jones added.

India's real GDP growth for the next fiscal (2026-27) could erode by around one percentage point, while retail inflation could rise by about 1.5 percentage points from their baseline estimates if the West Asia conflict persists through the next fiscal, consultancy firm Ernst & Young report said.

The EY Economy Watch report said several sectors, including employment-intensive sectors like textiles, paints, chemicals, fertilisers and cement could be directly impacted.

Any reduction in employment or incomes in these sectors may further dampen aggregate demand. As a result, both supply and demand conditions may be adversely affected by global oil market disturbances, the report added.

It said the Indian economy, which imports nearly 90% of its crude oil requirements, is also highly dependent on imports of natural gas and fertilisers and is particularly vulnerable to such external shocks, with the adverse effects likely to cascade across multiple sectors through strong forward and backward linkages with crude oil and energy.

EY, in its February report, projected India's GDP could be between 6.8% and 7.2% in the 2026-27 fiscal.

The Indian government has already set up a Rs1 lakh crore economic stabilisation fund to act as a financial cushion against global headwinds.

Green Delta Insurance PLC has declared a 27% cash dividend for shareholders for the year ended 31 December, 2025.

The announcement was made at the company's 40th annual general meeting, held on 31 March, 2026 through an online conferencing and broadcasting platform.

The meeting was attended by sponsors, directors and shareholders. Company Secretary Md Oliullah Khan, FCS, conducted the AGM with the permission of Chairperson Shamsun Nahar Begum Chowdhury.

The chairperson thanked the shareholders for their continued support and cooperation in the company's growth. She also congratulated members of the Green Delta family for their sincere efforts to ensure uninterrupted customer service and smooth business operations during the economic challenges faced by businesses.

Farzanah Chowdhury, managing director and CEO of Green Delta Insurance, thanked shareholders for their support in helping the company maintain its leading position in the industry. She also expressed gratitude to the team for pursuing excellence amid the difficult economic conditions of 2025.

She expressed optimism about the company's future, citing its diverse service portfolio, digital solutions, automated customer service, agriculture insurance and microinsurance. She also pledged to continue innovation and deliver best-in-class service to ensure financial stability and sustainable growth.

Founding Managing Director Nasir A Choudhury also addressed the shareholders and thanked them for their continued support.

A large number of shareholders joined the online AGM and appreciated the board of directors and management of Green Delta Insurance PLC for the company's performance, corporate governance, dividend declaration and informative annual report for 2025.

Dove soap maker Unilever has implemented a global hiring freeze "at all levels" that will last at least three months, citing the effects of the widening conflict in the Middle East, according to a memo seen by Reuters.

In the memo, sent to staff late last week and previously unreported, Unilever said the freeze would take effect immediately and was made with an eye on the "significant challenges" from the month-old Iran war.

Firms globally from airlines to retail are scrambling to buttress themselves from the effects of the Iran war, which has snarled global trade flows and resulted in the worst-ever disruption of oil-and-gas supplies in history. The rapid surge in energy costs is already surfacing in other markets, slowing production in industries like chemicals and plastics.

"Macro economic and geopolitical realities, especially the Middle East conflict... bring some significant challenges for the coming few months," Fabian Garcia, head of Unilever's personal care business, wrote in the memo sent to staff.

"With this in mind, the Unilever Leadership Executive team has agreed a global recruitment freeze at all levels. This will be effective immediately and last for a minimum of three months."

The London-based consumer products giant owns some of the world's most prominent brands. While it produces most of its goods where it sells them, it buys chemicals, food, packaging and other raw materials that are energy-intensive to create.

Unilever, in a statement, said that due to the "uncertain external environment, we have decided to put in place a temporary pause on our recruitment," adding that it will "always adjust our plans as necessary."

Unilever was already cost-cutting

The freeze comes on top of an existing cost-cutting programme Unilever has had in place since 2024, meant to save around 800 million euros ($916.72 million) in costs over the next three years. The changes Unilever proposed then were expected to affect around 7,500 jobs globally, mostly office-based.

The firm's current headcount of 96,000 is down from the roughly 149,000 people it employed in 2020.

The company has struggled to grow sales volumes across its businesses in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic. It is now in talks to sell its foods business to smaller rival McCormick & Company, it said on 20 March.

Under the proposed combination, which would mark a major shake-up under CEO Fernando Fernandez, the British group's shareholders would likely keep a majority stake in the new entity, Reuters reported late last week.

Shares of Unilever rose 1.1% in London trading Monday.

China's factory activity grew at the fastest pace in a year in March, underpinned by improved demand, an official survey showed on Tuesday, a welcome relief for an economy grappling with global supply chain strains and energy market volatility.

The stronger reading eases pressure on policymakers, though its durability is in doubt as surging energy prices driven by the Middle East war, and heightened growth risks, pose fresh headwinds for manufacturers reliant on exports and operating on thin margins.

"The outlook for Q2 is unclear at this stage, given the negative impact from high energy prices," said Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management.

"The market is increasingly worried about the risk of global growth slowdown and supply chain disruption."

The official manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) rose to 50.4 from 49.0 in February, above the 50-threshold and hitting the highest point in 12 months, data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed. It beat analysts' forecast for a 50.1 reading in a Reuters poll.

The manufacturing PMI was in contraction for most of 2025 and the first two months of 2026.

China's goods exports continued to power growth in January and February after last year's record $1.2 trillion trade surplus, buoyed by firm global demand for electronics, particularly semiconductors. The commerce ministry said last week the momentum looked set to hold, even as geopolitical strains linger.

Yet the war in the Middle East is raising concerns for policymakers.

Pressure was already evident in the latest survey. The sub-index for purchase prices of main raw materials jumped to 63.9 in March from 54.8 in February, driven by rising bulk commodity prices and faster procurement by companies, the NBS said.

Output prices also rose, albeit at a more modest pace, suggesting limited pricing power.

War fans business uncertainty amid weak domestic demand

The March PMI data may have been skewed by the Lunar New Year holiday, despite seasonal adjustments to the NBS survey that economists say remain imperfect. The festival fell in February, when factories often shut for longer than the official break, which stretched to a record nine days this year.

Businesses accelerated their resumption of work and production after the holiday and market activity improved, NBS statistician Huo Lihui said in a statement, adding that PMI readings improved across companies of different sizes.

The sub-indexes for output and new orders both rose above 51 from below 50 the previous month, while that for new export orders improved to 49.1 from 45 in February.

China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, an industry association, said earlier this month that the war could affect car exports. The Middle East accounted for around a fifth of China's vehicle exports last year.

Hikes in input costs could pressure wages and job security, which would in turn weigh on already chronically weak domestic demand.

China's economic activity outperformed expectations in the first two months in part due to government support.

The non-manufacturing PMI, which includes services and construction, also increased to 50.1 from 49.5 in February, the NBS survey showed.

Tuesday's PMI survey suggests China's first-quarter GDP growth would likely exceed 4.5%, the floor for Beijing's 4.5%-5.0% target for this year, ANZ analysts said.

ANZ no longer expects rate cuts in 2026 or 2027 given growth stayed within the official goal, saying instead policymakers would likely prioritise structural measures to cushion the impact of the oil shock.

China's leaders have repeatedly vowed to shift the growth engine toward domestic consumption to reduce reliance on external demand. But rebalancing reforms will take time, and as the fallout from the war deepens, businesses are likely to feel the pain more sharply in the near term.

"When the global situation is uncertain, reliance on China's industrial chain increases, similar to the situation at the beginning of the pandemic," said Dan Wang, director for China at Eurasia Group.

"However, exports and PMI may face risks in the second half of the year, as the Iranian issue could lead to a recession in major economies, especially the EU, which is China's most important trading destination."

The Cabinet Committee on Government Purchase (CCGP) yesterday approved the import of another 2.6 lakh tonnes of fuel oil, as the government moves to safeguard national energy reserves against the backdrop of the US-Israel war on Iran.

The committee authorised the direct purchase of 1 lakh tonnes of crude oil from Abeer Trade & Global Markets. The government opted for a direct procurement route, bypassing the standard competitive tender process, citing urgent domestic energy requirements amid the continuing US-Israel war on Iran.

The conflict has introduced significant uncertainty into global oil shipping corridors, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, through which a substantial share of Asia-bound crude transits.

To mitigate supply chain risks, the government is also diversifying fuel imports as traditional shipping routes face disruption and fears of nationwide shortages grow amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

The CCGP yesterday approved the import of one lakh tonnes of EN590-10 PPM ultra-low sulphur diesel from ExxonMobil Kazakhstan Inc (EMKI) via direct purchase.

A further 60,000 tonnes of 0.5 percent sulphur gasoil (diesel) will be imported from Indonesia’s state-linked PT Bumi Siak Pusako Zapin (BSP Zapin) under a government-to-government (G2G) framework.

Earlier on March 26, the government authorised the emergency purchase of 3 lakh tonnes of diesel following two proposals from the Energy and Mineral Resources Division.

Before that, on March 22, the government wrote to the United States, requesting permission to import up to 6 lakh tonnes of refined fuel from Russia or, alternatively, to obtain a waiver for at least two months, according to the Ministry of Power, Energy and Mineral Resources.

Since the war started, Bangladesh has also received some 17,000 tonnes of diesel from India under an existing arrangement. Two additional shipments, each estimated at around 6,000 tonnes, are expected from Indonesia.

For the agriculture sector, the CCGP yesterday approved the import of 35,000 tonnes of MOP fertiliser from Russia’s JSC Foreign Economic Corporation (Prodintorg).

The procurement, to be implemented by the Bangladesh Agricultural Development Corporation (BADC), is valued at Tk 154.89 crore, with each tonne priced at $360.53.

While 10 proposals were placed before the committee, several, including the procurement of pulses and telecom equipment for the Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant, were withdrawn.

Meghna Bank PLC has moved to auction a mortgaged property owned by PFI Securities Limited to recover defaulted loans totaling Tk49.18 crore.

In a public notice, the bank said the auction will involve a commercial property in Dilkusha, a prime business area in Dhaka under Motijheel police station.

The asset includes around 6.60 decimals of land and a nine-storey building, which also houses the PFI Securities office.

Interested buyers have been invited to submit bids by 15 April, along with required documents and earnest money deposits. The highest bidder, subject to meeting all conditions, will secure the purchase.

The bank said the auction is part of its effort to recover non-performing loans, highlighting growing pressure on financial institutions to maintain asset quality. Auctions of mortgaged assets have become a common mechanism amid rising defaults in the sector.

Attempts to reach Kazi Fariduddin Ahmed, managing director of PFI Securities, for comment were unsuccessful.

Established in 1997, PFI Securities operates as a stock dealer and brokerage firm, and is a member of both the Dhaka and Chattogram stock exchanges.

It is also an associate of Prime Finance and Investment, which holds a 46.15% stake in the company.

The firm has faced regulatory issues in recent years. In November 2023, the Central Depository Bangladesh Limited temporarily suspended its depository participant operations over unpaid fees, though the matter was resolved shortly after. In 2018, the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange

Commission fined the company Tk25 lakh over irregularities related to consolidated customer accounts and stock market investments.

The Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission has approved the issuance of an Orange bond, the first of its kind in the country, by SAJIDA Foundation to raise Tk 158.5 crore to finance women’s economic empowerment and accelerate progress towards gender equality.

The zero-coupon bond, a debt instrument that pays no interest but is sold at a deep discount, marks a major milestone in Bangladesh’s capital market evolution, said a press release from BRAC EPL Investments Ltd.

SAJIDA Foundation partnered with BRAC EPL Investments Ltd and Impact Investment Exchange (IIX), the Singapore-based global impact investing platform, to issue the Orange bond, a specialised investment tool designed to raise money specifically for empowering women, girls, and gender minorities while tackling climate change.

Some 48 percent of the proceeds will be allocated to food security and agriculture, 32 percent to women-led SMEs, and 20 percent will be used for climate-resilient housing across 36 districts
“The pioneering bond supports the transition toward more inclusive, resilient, and capital market-driven development finance solutions, and contributes to broader efforts to develop the impact investment ecosystem in Bangladesh,” said the press release.

BRAC EPL Investments Ltd said Bangladesh’s bond market has long been dominated by government securities and bank subordinated debt.

This transaction breaks that mould by introducing thematic, impact-linked fixed income as a new asset class.

The bond offers investors tax-exempt financial returns while enabling measurable social impact, particularly in supporting women and women-led businesses.

Some 48 percent of the proceeds will be allocated to food security and agriculture, 32 percent to women-led SMEs, and 20 percent will be used for climate-resilient housing across 36 districts.

“Impact will be tracked through independently verified annual reports aligned with international standards, ensuring transparency and tangible benefits for women’s economic empowerment.”

Major blue-chip stocks, typically seen as market anchors, led March's decline, with BRAC Bank and British American Tobacco Bangladesh among the hardest hit as global uncertainty weighed on Bangladesh's market.

According to "Monthly Market Wrap: March 2026", published by Sheltech Brokerage Limited, both blue-chip and mid-cap stocks dominated the list of top decliners. BRAC Bank posted the steepest fall, dropping 23.43% month-on-month to close at Tk67, while BAT Bangladesh lost 19.35% to Tk221.30.

Other major laggards included Rahima Food Corporation, Pragati Life Insurance, Saiham Textile Mills, IFIC Bank, Sonargaon Textiles, Dulamia Cotton Spinning Mills, Islami Bank Bangladesh PLC, and Beximco Pharmaceuticals – each recording double-digit losses over the period.

The report attributed the broad downturn to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which triggered widespread selling. Investor sentiment weakened sharply on fears of energy supply disruptions and rising inflation – key concerns for Bangladesh's import-dependent economy.

The benchmark DSEX index fell 7.53% during the month, shedding 421.95 points to close at 5,178.31. Market activity also declined significantly, with average daily turnover dropping 24.12% month-on-month to around Tk 600 crore, reflecting heightened risk aversion.

Volatility remained high throughout March. Early sessions were marked by panic selling, dragging the index down by more than 591 points cumulatively. One of the sharpest declines came in a single session, when the index plunged 208.98 points – the steepest one-day fall since 2020 – following an escalation in the Middle East conflict.

Although the market saw a brief mid-month rebound driven by bargain hunting, the recovery proved short-lived. Analysts said the absence of any clear de-escalation signals in global tensions discouraged sustained buying, leading to renewed selling pressure in the latter half.

Sectoral performance indicated widespread weakness, with most major industries posting negative returns. Food and allied, banking, and financial institutions were among the worst performers, reflecting both macroeconomic stress and eroding investor confidence.

Analysts warned that the sharp decline in blue-chip stocks is particularly concerning, as these are typically viewed as stable investments. Their fall signals deeper market uncertainty and growing investor caution, even toward fundamentally strong companies.

They added that the market's near-term trajectory will depend largely on global developments, especially in energy markets, as well as domestic economic stability. Until clearer signals emerge, trading is likely to remain subdued, with volatility elevated

Bangladesh could lose more than $17.5 billion in exports following its graduation from the least developed country (LDC) category, the steepest projected loss among all graduating nations globally, according to a new United Nations report.

The figure represents nearly a third of the country’s $54.8 billion in total exports recorded in 2023, according to the Trade Preferences Outlook 2025, published by the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).

“The trade effects of losing LDC preferences could be substantial in certain cases,” it said, projecting that Bangladesh can face a 32.24 percent decline in its total exports after it transitions to a developing country.

The warning comes just over six months before Bangladesh’s scheduled graduation on November 24, 2026. Nepal and Lao PDR are also scheduled to graduate this year, with the third and final review process by the UN currently underway ahead of the final transition.

The new BNP-led government, which took office in February, has sought a three-year deferral, pushing the graduation date to November 2029, citing disruptions in preparedness caused by prolonged global crises and domestic economic pressures.

The request came amid repeated calls from exporters who say the country is not yet prepared to compete without preferential trade access.

GARMENTS, FOOTWEAR TO BEAR THE BRUNT

The UNCTAD report, released in late February, found that around 97 percent of the projected export losses would stem from the apparel and footwear sectors – the twin pillars of Bangladesh’s export economy, which together account for nearly 90 percent of the country’s goods exports.

The European Union (EU) looms largest in the risk picture. Some 77 percent of the total projected loss is linked to preference erosion in the EU market, which currently grants duty-free access to Bangladeshi apparel and footwear under its Everything but Arms initiative for LDCs.

The EU is Bangladesh’s biggest export destination, accounting for nearly 47 percent of total exports in 2024. The United States follows at 16.15 percent of total exports, with other developed markets at 15 percent. Canada and Japan together account for around 5.82 percent.

Post-graduation, Canada is projected to contribute 8.6 percent of the total export decline, while the United Kingdom would account for 6.9 percent.

The loss of preferential market access conditions can result in a substantial decrease in exports of preference-receiving countries as evident in projection for fellow graduating nations.

According to the UNCTAD report, Lao PDR is projected to see a 12.8 percent decline in exports, and Nepal a 3.82 percent drop.

FTAs AND TRANSITION DEALS

The report noted that several graduating LDCs have moved to negotiate free trade agreements (FTAs) with key partners to lock in tariff preferences beyond their LDC status.

For instance, Bangladesh has initiated FTA talks with both Japan and the EU, among others.

However, the report cautioned that reciprocal trade agreements come with their own costs, requiring countries to open their own markets, potentially raising competition, triggering adjustment pressures and reducing customs revenues.

Countries with limited market power, it added, often face challenges in effectively negotiating and achieving their economic interests in trade negotiations with partners that enjoy significantly greater markets

UNCTAD noted that with 14 LDCs nearing graduation, smooth transitional arrangements are gaining traction.

The report noted that the EU, the United Kingdom and Canada have introduced mechanisms allowing graduating LDCs continued access to preferential treatment for three years after graduation, offering some cushion against abrupt trade shocks.

The EU has also moved to reform its GSP+ scheme to improve accessibility for vulnerable economies, including future LDC graduates. Some of the recent reforms aim to better accommodate populous graduating LDCs such as Bangladesh.

Meanwhile, the UK and Canada have introduced analogous preference programmes of their own, titled “Enhanced Preferences” and General Preferential Tariff Plus (GPTP), respectively.

‘STRUCTURAL WEAKNESSES EXPOSED’

Economists say the findings should serve as a wake-up call.

Ashikur Rahman, principal economist at the Policy Research Institute of Bangladesh (PRI), said the UNCTAD projections highlight how deeply the country’s trade competitiveness depends on preferential access.

“While this estimate does, on the surface, look very high, with more than 90 percent of exports benefiting from such preferences, the transition to a post-LDC regime will expose structural weaknesses, particularly our heavy reliance on a narrow set of products and markets,” he said.

Rahman said the message is clear: graduation cannot be treated as a symbolic achievement alone.

“It must be accompanied by urgent and credible reforms: securing trade agreements, especially with the EU, improving logistics and energy reliability, and enabling firms to move up the value chain. Without this, preference erosion could translate into real economic stress.

“With the right reforms, however, graduation can become a turning point towards a more resilient and competitive export economy,” he added.

Bangladesh's stock market has lost around Tk29,531 crore in value amid a bearish trend since the start of the US-Israel war on Iran, as persistent sell-offs driven by fears of a prolonged conflict weigh heavily on investor sentiment, according to data from the Dhaka Stock Exchange.

Equities – shares of listed companies – have borne the brunt of the downturn since the war began on 28 February, with their value falling by Tk27,176 crore, while the value of debt securities, including treasury bonds and corporate bonds, dropped by Tk2,468 crore, according to the DSE data.

Market capitalisation, which reflects the total value of all listed companies' outstanding shares, stood at Tk6.88 lakh crore as of today (31 March), comprising Tk3.34 lakh crore in equities and Tk3.52 lakh crore in debt securities.

Before the conflict, on 26 February, total market capitalisation was Tk7.18 lakh crore, with Tk3.61 lakh crore in equities and Tk3.54 lakh crore in debt instruments.

The benchmark DSEX index dropped by a net 421 points over the past month, as most trading sessions closed in the red amid sustained selling pressure. Out of 17 trading days since the conflict began, the market declined on 10 days and rose on only seven.

During these sessions, the DSEX fell by a cumulative 919 points, recovered 498 points, and ended at 5,178 points – reflecting an overall net loss of 421 points.

Fundamentally strong stocks, including BRAC Bank, Islami Bank, BAT Bangladesh, Square Pharmaceuticals, Walton, Pubali Bank, City Bank, Prime Bank, and Eastern Bank, were among the biggest contributors to the index's decline, according to market data.

Market insiders and investors said the bourse had already been sluggish ahead of the election due to concerns over political instability, with expectations of a recovery after the new government took office.

However, the outbreak of the Iran war within days of the new administration assuming power triggered fresh volatility, which continues to persist.

According to market insiders, the war has already started to impact the country's economy, particularly through disruptions to fuel imports, raising concerns over supply. There are also fears of potential interruptions in raw material imports.

If fuel supply and raw material flows do not stabilise, the business performance of listed companies could be adversely affected, prompting investors in the capital market to adopt a cautious stance.

Md Akramul Alam, head of research at Royal Capital, said the oil shock triggered by the Iran-US war is influencing the pace of the country's economic recovery, which is ultimately expected to be reflected in the sluggish stock market.

"The inflationary pressures will erode the production and profitability of publicly traded companies, which signals lower valuations as a result. But some investors may love to win a bet on stocks at a huge discount," he said.

"The market is expected to rebound after this storm ends," he added.

Muhammad Nazrul Islam, MD & CEO of Sandhani Life Finance, told TBS, "Although there were expectations that the market would see a positive impact after the new government took office, the Iran war has created another layer of uncertainty in the market.

"The effects of the war have already started to impact the country's economy, particularly creating concerns over fuel supply. Investors are now closely watching how the Iran war situation unfolds."

Volatility and falling turnover

Sheltech Brokerage, in its March market commentary, said the Middle East conflict triggered broad-based selling.

"DSEX declined by 7.53%, or 421.95 points, on a month-to-month basis, while average daily turnover fell by 24.12% to Tk600 crore, reflecting subdued market participation amid investors' heightened risk aversion due to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which raised concerns over potential energy supply disruptions and their broader macroeconomic implications," it said.

"The market experienced extreme volatility during the period, with an initial phase of broad-based panic selling leading to a cumulative decline of over 591.27 points, including a single-day steepest drop of 208.98 points since 2020, following the onset of the Middle East conflict.

"While a brief recovery supported by bargain hunting was witnessed in the middle of the month, the absence of any tangible de-escalation sign limited follow-through buying and triggered renewed selling pressure into the latter part of the period," it added.

Looking ahead, the brokerage firm said market direction is likely to remain sensitive to geopolitical developments, particularly their impact on energy prices and domestic macroeconomic stability.

Regional markets also slide

Peer markets across the region also recorded sharp declines in March following the start of the Iran war.

Indonesia's IDX Composite index posted the steepest fall at 14.41%, followed by India's Sensex at 11.49%, Pakistan's KSE-100 at 11.38%, Sri Lanka's ASPI at 11.24%, Vietnam's VN-Index at 10.95%, Thailand's SET index at 5.24%, and Malaysia's market at 1.53%, according to an analysis by Sheltech Brokerage.

Despite the losses, the firm noted that Bangladesh's DSEX showed relative resilience, with a comparatively smaller decline of 7.53% amid the geopolitical shock.

Bangladesh's apparel exports to the European market could face a carbon tax of about 5% if emissions are not reduced, a new study warns.

The European Union (EU), Bangladesh's largest export market, has introduced the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) to curb emissions across its supply chains. Apparel products could be brought under this mechanism by 2030.

If current emission levels in Bangladesh's garment sector persist, an additional 4.8% carbon tax may be imposed on apparel exports after 2030, according to the study.

The findings come from joint research by Professor Mustafizur Rahman, distinguished fellow at the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), and Mohammad Imraj Kabir. The report was published on the CPD website on 29 March.

This additional tax may come at a time when Bangladesh is set to lose its duty-free trade benefits in the EU market due to graduation from least developed country (LDC) status.

The study notes that the loss of duty-free access could result in an average tariff of about 12%, and with the added carbon tax of 4.8%, the total tariff burden could rise to nearly 17%.

"The carbon tax on Bangladesh's exports of apparel to the EU, using the EU-CBAM methodology, is estimated to be 4.8%," the report titled "EU Carbon Tax: Possible Implications for Bangladesh's Apparel Export" states.

"If the average EU-MFN import duty on apparel is taken to be 12.1%, the total import tariff comes to about 16.9% (12.1%+4.8%)," it adds.

This scenario could emerge after Bangladesh graduates from the LDC group in November 2026. Even if the EU extends duty-free access until 2029, the apparel sector could still face a 4.8% CBAM tax during 2026–2029 if apparel is included in the mechanism.

Professor Mustafizur Rahman told TBS, "We estimated this based on the level of carbon emissions in Bangladesh's apparel sector."

However, industry leaders are not overly concerned. They say many factories have already begun adopting environmentally friendly production processes, including renewable energy, to reduce emissions, and others are expected to follow.

Mahmud Hasan Khan Babu, president of the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA), told TBS, "We have already started preparing to use 30% renewable energy in line with EU requirements. Many of our factories have begun implementing green practices, including renewable energy."

He added that smaller and medium-sized factories are also being supported to meet these requirements in collaboration with the government.

Bangladesh has one of the highest numbers of green-certified factories by the US Green Building Council (USGBC), with nearly 300 such facilities.

However, Mustafizur Rahman noted that existing green factories do not fully meet all EU requirements, though this still represents significant progress.

The EU introduced CBAM in July 2021 to encourage exporters to reduce emissions and penalise those who do not. Initially, it applies to products such as cement, fertiliser and steel from January 2026. However, the EU plans to eventually include all imported goods by 2030.

Given that apparel accounts for more than four-fifths of Bangladesh's exports – and the EU takes more than half of those exports – this development is highly significant for the country.

Need to prioritise clean energy

The report stresses that Bangladesh must increase the use of clean energy in production to avoid potential carbon taxes in the EU market. It recommends a range of policy measures, including incentives for adopting green technologies.

Suggested steps include fiscal incentives such as reduced import duties on energy-efficient technologies, financial support like subsidised loans for setting up ETPs, and institutional measures such as enforcing emission-reduction policies and building technical capacity.

Other recommendations include developing a monitoring mechanism for CBAM, engaging with the World Trade Organization (WTO), introducing a domestic carbon pricing system, strengthening renewable energy policies, and ensuring that CBAM is not used as a protectionist trade tool.

The government is considering a strategic diesel allocation plan for the ready-made garment sector based on recommendations from trade bodies to ensure factory generators remain operational during periods of load-shedding.

The move comes amid a worsening global energy crisis triggered by the Iran war, which has driven up fuel and LNG prices and disrupted supply chains. Iran's move to halt tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has further tightened global supply.

According to officials and industry sources, the proposed mechanism will allow factories to receive diesel strictly in line with certified daily requirements provided by the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA) and the Bangladesh Knitwear Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BKMEA).

Both organisations have already begun collecting data from member factories on generator capacity and fuel demand. In a letter issued on Sunday, the BGMEA asked its members to submit details of generator usage, capacity and diesel requirements by 2 April, while the BKMEA issued a similar request.

BGMEA President Mahmud Hasan Khan said factories rely on standby generators during power outages, which require a steady diesel supply. He noted that discussions with the government are under way to ensure equitable fuel distribution during the ongoing global crisis.

He added that, under an initial plan, diesel allocation would be based on the amount required to run generators for up to four hours a day, as extended load-shedding beyond that duration is not anticipated.

BKMEA President Mohammad Hatem said the association is gathering daily fuel demand data from its members and will issue certifications accordingly. He added that a meeting with the power and energy minister was scheduled for late yesterday to finalise the arrangement.

BKMEA Executive President Fazlee Shamim Ehsan said discussions have already taken place with the energy minister and local administrators in Narayanganj and Gazipur, with positive responses.

He expressed hope that fuel supply based on organisational recommendations would begin soon, depending on the evolving situation.

Under the proposed system, factories will be allowed to collect diesel once daily from nearby filling stations, which will supply fuel upon verification of BGMEA or BKMEA certification, sources said.

Data from the Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation indicate that the country consumes around 13,000 to 14,000 tonnes of diesel per day, with about 5% used by industrial factories. The bulk of diesel is consumed in transport, irrigation and power generation.

Bangladesh, which is heavily dependent on fuel imports from Middle Eastern countries such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, has not received crude oil shipments since the war started.

Imports of refined fuel and LNG – primarily sourced from countries including Qatar and Oman – have also been affected, with LNG prices nearly doubling.

Diesel remains critical for transport, agriculture, power generation and industrial operations, while LNG is widely used in electricity production and factory boilers. The ongoing global shortage has already begun to affect domestic supply, with consumers facing difficulties in obtaining fuel in line with demand, industry insiders said.

A rapid expansion of solar energy is essential to protect Bangladesh from escalating global fuel price shocks triggered by the Iran war, according to a new study.

The report by Lion City Advisory highlights how surging global energy prices have intensified pressure on Bangladesh's already strained power sector, exposing its heavy dependence on imported fossil fuels.

Within just four weeks, Brent crude prices jumped from $67 to over $100 per barrel, while liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices surged from $10 to $22.51 per MMBtu, the report noted.

As a result, Bangladesh's monthly import bill for oil, LNG and coal has increased by an estimated $760-830 million, with LNG alone adding $363-400 million in additional monthly costs.

Analysts warn that if elevated prices persist for more than six months, the country could face significant fiscal strain due to rising subsidy requirements.

Despite installed power capacity jumping from 5,245MW in 2005-06 to 28,919MW in 2026, around 63% of capacity remains idle. Yet, the government continues to pay around Tk38,000 crore annually in capacity payments – largely to oil-based plants – compounding financial stress.

With almost 87% of electricity still generated from fossil fuels, Bangladesh remains highly exposed to global commodity volatility.

Solar seen as fastest shield

The study identifies solar energy as the quickest and most scalable way to reduce this exposure, recommending nationwide adoption of Solar Home Systems (SHS), particularly in urban areas.

In Dhaka alone, nearly 3.5 million households rely on diesel generators, costing an estimated $530 million annually. Mandatory SHS adoption could significantly cut these expenses while reducing fuel imports and easing pressure on the national grid.

Rooftop solar also presents a major opportunity. Although the current installed capacity stands at around 245MW, the report suggests this could expand rapidly if policy barriers are removed.

"Solar is not just a climate solution – it is now a fiscal necessity," the report states, emphasising that solar power eliminates dependence on imported fuels and shields the economy from global price shocks.

Unlocking investment through policy reform

A key bottleneck remains the suspension of Implementation Agreements (IAs) for new solar independent power producers (IPPs), which has stalled more than 5,200 MW of planned projects.

Without IA-backed guarantees, developers cannot secure financing from global lenders such as the International Finance Corporation, the Asian Development Bank, and the Japan International Cooperation Agency.

The report urges immediate reinstatement of IAs for projects above 50MW, with fiscal safeguards. Unlike conventional IPPs, solar projects operate on an energy-payment model – meaning the government pays only for electricity actually generated, avoiding the costly capacity payments that currently burden the system.

Tariffs offered by solar developers – around $0.08/kWh – are described as globally competitive and cheaper than oil-based generation.

Cutting costs at source

Beyond solar expansion, the report outlines immediate steps to reduce system costs.

One major recommendation is the removal of import duties on solar equipment, currently ranging from 14-28%, which could lower project costs by up to 20%.

It also calls for simplifying net metering approvals – currently taking up to 90 days – through a 30-day automatic approval mechanism, alongside penalties for utility delays.

At the same time, renegotiating and gradually retiring expensive HFO and diesel-based plants could save around Tk18,000 crore annually, with funds redirected toward renewable energy investments.

Efficiency gains and gas supply concerns

Industrial energy efficiency is identified as another immediate opportunity. Waste heat recovery systems in factories could save around 50 billion cubic feet of gas annually – equivalent to $1.13 billion in LNG imports at current prices.

Describing this as "effectively free LNG," the report says such measures can provide short-term relief while renewable capacity is expanded.

The study also notes a decline in domestic gas production – from around 2,700 MMcfd in 2018 to 1,700 MMcfd in 2026 – urging an emergency drilling programme by Bangladesh Petroleum Exploration and Production Company Limited to accelerate the completion of 34 planned wells.

However, it cautions that gas alone cannot resolve the crisis and recommends prioritising domestic gas for high-value sectors such as fertiliser, while shifting power generation towards solar energy.

Long-term resilience

The report proposes allocating 50,000 acres of marginal land for solar parks and expanding solar irrigation to replace almost 1.5 million diesel pumps that currently consume around $1.5 billion annually.

It also calls for reforms in green financing, including simplifying Bangladesh Bank's approval process to enable faster, low-cost funding for renewable projects.

Underlying all recommendations is a clear message: Bangladesh must move away from a fuel-import-driven power system toward one based on domestic, renewable energy.

"The current crisis is a warning," the report concludes. "Solar energy, backed by policy reform and investment certainty, offers Bangladesh the most viable path to reduce price exposure, stabilise subsidies, and secure long-term energy independence."

The 14th Ministerial Conference (MC14) of the World Trade Organization (WTO) concluded early yesterday with no significant agreements, except promises to continue working towards consensus on disputed issues among member countries.

The four-day conference, which began on March 26, saw nearly 2,000 officials, including more than 90 ministers, debate key topics such as the moratorium on customs duties for electronic transmissions and broader WTO reform.

Originally scheduled to end on Sunday, the meeting stretched past midnight as ministers tried to bridge gaps on major issues.

DEADLOCK ON E-COMMERCE MORATORIUM

The WTO’s moratorium on customs duties for electronic transmissions expired yesterday after nearly three decades. Negotiations in Yaoundé continued late into the night but concluded without a final agreement.

Diplomats worked to reconcile differences between Brazil, which initially sought a two-year extension and later proposed a four-year extension with a mid-term review, and the United States, which pushed for a permanent moratorium to protect major companies such as Amazon and Apple from digital taxation.

A draft proposal for a four-year extension with a one-year sunset buffer, extending the moratorium to 2031, was also discussed but not agreed upon, reports Reuters.

Developing countries, including India, opposed a lengthy extension, arguing that the moratorium denies them potential tax revenue that could be reinvested domestically. Some 66 nations, however, agreed to an interim arrangement pending ratification.

WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said, “The e-commerce moratorium had expired, meaning countries could apply duties on electronic goods such as digital downloads and streaming. But we hope to be able to restore the moratorium and Brazil and the US were trying to reach agreement on it. They need more time and we didn’t have the time here.”

Cameroon Trade Minister Luc Magloire Mbarga Atangana, chair of MC14, added that WTO talks would continue in Geneva, expected in May.

Britain’s Business and Trade Secretary Peter Kyle called the failure to reach a collective decision in Yaoundé a “major setback for global trade.”

REFORM TALKS MAKE PARTIAL PROGRESS

Ministers and delegates made some progress drafting a plan for broader WTO reform, though no final agreements were reached, reports AFP. They were tasked with creating an action plan to revitalise the organisation, weakened by geopolitical tensions, stalled negotiations, and rising protectionism.

A draft reform roadmap outlining timelines and key issues, seen by Reuters, was close to agreement before the talks ended. Completion of any reform deal, however, will depend on resolving recurring issues, such as improving consensus-based decision-making and extending trade benefits to developing countries. Ministers also fell short of expectations on agriculture and other areas.

Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala welcomed progress in discussions on WTO reform, fisheries subsidies, and other issues.

KEY OUTCOMES

The WTO announced that ministers agreed to continue negotiations on fisheries subsidies, aiming to present recommendations at the 15th Ministerial Conference for comprehensive rules.

Two decisions were also adopted that had been previously endorsed in Geneva: improving the integration of small economies into the multilateral trading system, and enhancing the implementation of special and differential treatment provisions under the Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures (SPS) and Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT) agreements.

The WTO director-general confirmed that members would return to Geneva with drafts of the Yaoundé Ministerial Declaration on WTO Reform and Work Plan, the Ministerial Decision on Electronic Commerce, the Ministerial Decision on TRIPS Non-Violation and Situation Complaints, and the LDC package.

As energy stress spreads across Southeast Asia, governments across the region are asking China to deliver on its pledges of closer energy security cooperation by freeing up now-banned exports ​of fertiliser and fuel.

But so far China has offered only vague statements and has yet to even publicly acknowledge the export bans reported by Reuters and others as it focuses ‌on insulating its own economy from the war in Iran.

Analysts don’t expect that to change, pointing to the tension between China’s stated ambition to be a bigger player in regional affairs and the realpolitik of its commitment to keep its own economy outpacing global growth.

China is the world’s second largest fertiliser exporter and also a large supplier of fuel. For many countries in Asia including Bangladesh, the Philippines and even Australia, Chinese imports are a major source of supply, now cut off by its export bans.

Dhaka earlier this month asked China to honour existing fuel contracts, while Thai diplomats will engage Chinese counterparts to keep fertiliser shipments from China flowing if needed, officials in Bangkok said.

In Malaysia, officials said last week the Chinese export ban would worsen fertiliser rationing, including in its oil palm industry, the world’s second-largest, and add a further blow on top of the war in Iran.

Even the Philippines has sought assistance despite the two countries’ disputes over the South China Sea.

On March 17, the Philippines minister of agriculture visited China’s embassy in Manila and said China had agreed to continue fertiliser shipments. Beijing’s one-sentence readout said only that they had discussed agriculture.

The same day Australia, which imported a ​third of its jet fuel from China last year, said it was discussing jet fuel exports with Beijing.

“China may offer some ceremonial assistance, but it’s highly unlikely, if not wholly improbable, that it will share any substantive amount of its food, energy, or other reserves with other countries,” said Eric Olander, co-founder of the China-Global South Project.

In addition, we’re talking about the impact of the war in the Middle East.

In fact, analysts said Chinese policymakers were likely quietly congratulating themselves on the strategic foresight to begin stockpiling since the early 2000s, a policy that may have seemed excessive in peacetime but now looks decidedly practical.

People’s Daily, the Communist Party’s flagship newspaper, trumpeted China’s relative energy security in an editorial earlier this month ​and said the country’s foresight meant China held the “energy lifeline” in its own hands.

China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not immediately respond to questions from Reuters.

‘A TRIED AND TESTED PLAYBOOK’

China’s flagship Belt and Road infrastructure initiative ‌has seen world leaders regularly congregate in Beijing to discuss ‘win-win’ cooperation but with the region now short on fuel and fertiliser, Southeast Asian capitals are instead looking for replacements from the likes of Russia.

“China won’t want to create expectations it can’t sustain. Beijing has no desire to be a regional energy backstop for an indefinite period of disruption,” according to Ruby Osman, a senior policy adviser at the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change.

Beijing will likely stick to its tried-and-tested playbook: imposing sharp, broad curbs on energy and energy-related exports before selectively resuming trade once officials are confident domestic demand can be met, she said.

Famine and ​scarcity remain deeply embedded in China’s political consciousness, ​with the trauma of Mao Zedong’s Great Leap Forward and Cultural Revolution still close enough to remember.

“Only if China gets more comfortable with its own exposure, then I would expect meaningful support,” said Max Zenglein, senior economist at the Conference Board Asia. “I expect any support will be very transactional. Not a good position to be in if ​you are one those countries, unfortunately.”

Wang Jin, a senior fellow at the Beijing Club for International Dialogue, a think tank under China’s foreign ministry, said Beijing could also benefit if the shock pushes trading partners to accelerate investment in green and nuclear energy, sectors where China leads after years of state-backed investment.

What is more, with no major aid donor such as Japan, or regional rival, stepping in to plug shortages, China faces little pressure to do so itself, analysts said.

Olander compared the situation to the Covid-19 pandemic, when officials across the region looked to India as Asia’s main source of ⁠vaccines, only for New Delhi to halt exports as infections surged at home.

Osman said China’s partners seeking concessions would do well to remind Beijing of its own commitments.

“Maybe the key is just to quote this new bit of the five-year plan back to Beijing: ‘strengthen international cooperation in food, energy, data, biological and sea passage security, counter-terrorism and other fields.”

Development organisation Sajida Foundation has got regulatory approval to raise Tk158.5 crore through a non-convertible, unsecured zero-coupon bond aimed at expanding financial inclusion and strengthening women-led enterprises and SME financing across Bangladesh.

The Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission approved this in a meeting held in Dhaka today (30 March).

The proposed instrument, titled "Sajida Orange Zero-Coupon Bond," is designed as a social impact financing tool to support long-term development initiatives. The bond will be issued through private placement and is intended to channel funds into women-focused economic empowerment programmes.

Earlier, Sajida Foundation raised Tk198 crore through a zero-coupon bond in 2024 and Tk100 crore through a green zero-coupon bond in 2021, reflecting its gradual shift towards capital market-based financing to reduce donor dependency and scale up development activities.

Zahida Fizza Kabir, chief executive officer (CEO) of Sajida Foundation, told The Business Standard, "The Orange bond is a vital tool that allows us to scale our impact by mobilising domestic capital to meet the essential needs of underserved women in Bangladesh."

He said, "By focusing on SME financing, secure housing, and food security, we are not just providing financial aid, we are investing in the resilience and leadership of women who are the backbone of our communities."

Zahida further said, "This is a watershed moment for Bangladesh's capital market. The Orange bond proves that purpose and profit are not in conflict; rather, they are complementary. The BSEC's approval signals that our market is ready to compete globally in sustainable finance, and we are proud to have pioneered this journey alongside Sajida Foundation."

Under the proposed structure, BRAC EPL Investments Limited will act as the issue manager, while DBH Finance PLC will serve as a trustee. The issuance will require approval from the BSEC and a no-objection certificate from the Microcredit Regulatory Authority.

The proceeds will be deployed under "eligible orange projects," focusing on women's empowerment, SME development, employment generation, agriculture, food security, and housing. A key priority is expanding access to affordable credit for women entrepreneurs, particularly in rural and underserved communities.

According to the allocation plan, around 32% of the funds will be directed to SME financing and employment generation, 20% to housing-related initiatives, and approximately 40% to agriculture and food security projects. The remaining portion will be used for microfinance operations, programme implementation, and technology-driven financial inclusion initiatives.

The bond is structured as a zero-coupon instrument, meaning investors will not receive periodic interest payments. Instead, they will purchase the bond at a discounted price and receive the full face value at maturity. The total issue size is Tk158.5 crore, while the indicative present value, based on an 11.5% discount rate, is estimated at around Tk127.99 crore.

Each bond carries a face value of Tk3,33,333, with a total of 4,755 bonds to be issued. Investors will have the option to choose tenors of one, two, or three years, with expected yields ranging between 7% and 11.5%, depending on market conditions.

The instrument will be listed on the Alternative Trading Board of the stock exchange, though secondary market liquidity is expected to remain limited. The repayment structure is designed on an equal annual basis, with portions of the bond redeemed each year to manage cash flow efficiently.

Sajida Foundation has received a long-term credit rating of AA+ and a short-term rating of ST-2 from Emerging Credit Rating Limited, reflecting a strong capacity to meet financial obligations and a stable outlook. However, the bond remains unsecured and carries no collateral backing.

To mitigate risk, the structure includes a rating-trigger mechanism. If the credit rating falls below investment grade (below BBB or ST-3), an additional premium of 0.25% to 1% will be added to the discount rate, offering partial protection to investors.

The bond does not include an early redemption option, meaning investors must hold it until maturity. In case of delayed payments, the issuer will be required to pay an additional 2% annual penalty on overdue amounts.

Founded in 1987, Sajida Foundation began as a privately funded family charity and has since evolved into one of Bangladesh's leading development organisations. It works across microfinance, healthcare, education, and social protection programmes, currently operating in 36 districts and reaching over 60 lakh people.

The organisation also maintains a strong financial base, including a 51% ownership stake in Renata Limited, a listed pharmaceutical company whose dividends significantly support its financial sustainability. In addition, Sajida Foundation collaborates with national and international development partners.

Market analysts note that the issuance reflects a broader shift in Bangladesh's development financing landscape, where non-government organisations are increasingly accessing capital markets to diversify funding sources. While the bond offers attractive returns and strong social impact potential, experts caution that its unsecured nature and limited liquidity may pose risks for conservative investors.

The Sajida Orange Zero-Coupon Bond represents a significant step towards integrating capital market financing with social development objectives, particularly in advancing women's economic empowerment and inclusive growth in Bangladesh, say analysts.

Foreign investors have continued withdrawing funds from Bangladesh's equity market over the past nine months through February this year amid persistent geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic uncertainties.

Political stability following the Bangladesh Nationalist Party's landslide victory in the February polls has failed to attract foreign investment, as intensifying conflict in the Middle East poses fresh economic challenges.

Md Akramul Alam, head of research at Royal Capital, said overall economic activity remained sluggish amid continued uncertainty, while the profitability of major listed companies stayed subdued due to high input costs.

"Persistent macroeconomic uncertainties and ongoing geopolitical tensions discouraged overseas investors from making fresh investments in stocks," he said.

Moreover, private sector credit growth fell to a historic low of 6.03 per cent in January, reflecting weak business confidence and tighter lending conditions, he added.

The ongoing US-Israel war involving Iran has already triggered volatility in global oil and gas prices, raising concerns about inflation and broader economic spillovers in Bangladesh.

"This has dampened the prospect of a sharp recovery in private sector credit demand and the much-needed spike in fresh investment," Mr Alam noted.

He also cited a confidence crisis, a high-value dollar against the local currency, and vulnerabilities in the banking sector as key deterrents to foreign investment.

Foreign investors typically seek a stable, predictable, and long-term policy environment under an elected government to ensure the safety of their investments with good returns.

The newly elected government has yet to outline a clear economic roadmap, while the intensifying Middle East conflict has added to global economic tension.

Ahsanur Rahman, chief executive officer of BRAC EPL Stock Brokerage, said foreign investors are seeking greater clarity. "They want more information and explanations," he told The Financial Express in a recent interview.

A limited number of investable securities and frequent policy changes have also discouraged foreigners from keeping funds in the Bangladesh equity market. The market has not seen any new listings for more than two years.

The impact on stocks is palpable. Foreign investors purchased shares worth Tk 18.25 billion in 2025 against sell-offs of Tk 20.95 billion; outflow outweighed inflow, according to data from the Dhaka Stock Exchange.

When it comes to investing in stocks in Bangladesh, foreigners usually prefer multinational companies. Currently, they are not interested in putting their money into these companies either, owing to lower-than-expected earnings in recent quarters.

Most multinational companies saw their profits decline in the nine months through September 2025 compared to the same period last year, largely due to high finance costs amid political uncertainty.

Grameenphone, the largest stock in terms of market capitalisation, reported its lowest annual profit of Tk 29.6 billion in 2025 in eight years, largely driven by cost pressures and a high tax burden.

What is more, GP projected a year-on-year decline in its financial performance for the first quarter of 2026, citing mounting pressures from global geopolitical tensions and domestic economic challenges.

Subsequently, foreign stakes in GP fell to 0.60 per cent in February this year from 0.98 per cent in June last year.

British American Tobacco (BAT) Bangladesh's profit also nosedived to Tk 5.84 billion in 2025, the lowest since its listing, due to lower sales, higher excise duty, and one-off costs for the Dhaka factory closure.

As a result, BAT's foreign stake dropped from 3.43 per cent to 3.24 per cent between June last year and February this year.

Olympic Industries experienced a similar trend. Its foreign stake fell to 30.26 per cent in February this year from 34.21 per cent in June last year.

Foreign shareholding in DBH Finance also dropped from 3.73 per cent to 0.44 per cent in the nine months through February this year.

However, BRAC Bank experienced a rise in foreign stakes from 33.80 per cent to 36.72 per cent during the period, while it reported record profits.

BRAC Bank's consolidated profit stood at Tk 15.36 billion for January-September 2025, surpassing its previous year's record annual profit.

Along with the record profit, BRAC Bank provided capital-gain opportunities in the secondary market, as its stock surged 78 per cent between June last year and February this year.

According to Akramul Alam, foreign investors are concerned about the high value of the dollar against the local currency.

Although the foreign exchange market has stabilised in recent months due to higher dollar inflows, supported by strong remittance and export earnings, the taka-dollar exchange rate remains as high as before.

"When the local currency weakens, foreign investors incur losses as the value of their assets falls even when share prices remain unchanged," Mr Alam said.

He also noted that many global fund managers have, in the meantime, rebalanced their portfolios, while others have shifted to gold to secure their investments instead of investing in equities.

"Foreign investors are closely monitoring Bangladesh. Portfolio investment may pick up again if geopolitical tensions ease," he added.