Oil tumbled more than 3 percent on Wednesday, reversing earlier gains as persistent Middle East volatility ‌unnerved markets even amid reports the US-Israeli war with Iran could be winding down.

The front-month Brent contract for June fell $3.33, or 3.2 percent, to $100.64 per barrel at 0641 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures for May slipped $3.34, or 3.3 percent, to $98.04 per barrel.

Prices rose earlier on Wednesday but turned lower as ​uncertainty over the Middle East conflict prompted investors to lock in gains.

“The dip is likely due to ​a lull during Asian hours with profit taking amid signals from the US that the ⁠war may come to a conclusion in the near term,” said Emril Jamil, senior analyst at LSEG.

Brent futures ​for June delivery settled down more than $3 on Tuesday following unconfirmed media reports that Iran’s president was ready to end ​the war.

President Donald Trump told reporters on Tuesday that the US could end the military campaign within two to three weeks and that Iran does not have to make a deal to end the conflict, his clearest declaration yet that he wants to wind down ​the month-long war.

Still, even if the conflict ends, infrastructure damage is likely to keep supplies tight, analysts say.

Oil prices ​will depend on how quickly supply chains normalize afterwards, said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova.

“Even if it starts ‌to de-escalate, ⁠the flow of tankers won’t resume right away ... shipping costs and insurance, tanker movement will take time to return to normal,” Sachdeva said, adding that the actual damage to oil infrastructure could only be assessed afterwards.

Trump has indicated he could end the war before reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a key route through which 20 percent of global ​oil and liquefied natural gas ​trade flows, according to ⁠a Wall Street Journal report.

“Even with diplomatic channels reportedly still active and intermittent comments from the US administration predicting a short end to the conflict, the combination of limited ​tangible diplomatic progress, continued maritime attacks and explicit threats against energy assets keeps supply ​risks skewed to ⁠the upside,” LSEG analysts said in a note.

Opec oil output dropped 7.3 million barrels per day in March compared with the previous month, a Reuters survey showed on Tuesday, illustrating the impact of forced export cuts because of the closure ⁠of ​the strait.

Meanwhile, US crude oil output fell by the most in two years ​in January following a severe winter storm that knocked production offline in large swathes of the country, data from the Energy Information Administration ​showed on Tuesday.

Hotel and restaurant owners have said they still need to visit VAT offices and "negotiate" with officials, despite the National Board of Revenue (NBR) introducing the online VAT return submission system.

The allegation was raised during a pre-budget meeting held today at the NBR headquarters.

Khaled Ur Rahman, former president of the Bangladesh International Hotel Association, said, "VAT officers treat us like thieves, even though we want to help the government collect revenue. Their behaviour should be professional."

Imran Hassan, secretary general of the Bangladesh Restaurant Owners Association, said many hotels, restaurants, and street food vendors remain outside the VAT net, creating unfair competition for compliant businesses.

He alleged that large, unregistered businesses evade VAT, sometimes with officials benefiting personally. "A well-known restaurant in Uttara sells over 1,000 kilograms of beef daily but remains outside VAT registration. Officers take money from them."

The NBR chairman, presiding over the meeting, rejected claims that the online system is ineffective, stating that once VAT returns are submitted online, visiting offices is unnecessary. He instructed officials to behave professionally, but also questioned whether businesses themselves are evading VAT.

Sharing his own experience, he said he bought sweets twice from the Dhanmondi outlet of Noni Sweets without receiving VAT receipts. When he asked, the staff claimed their EFD machine was out of order. Noni Gopal Ghosh, the owner, was present at the meeting.

The meeting also saw industry requests to reduce import taxes on alcohol to boost tourism, lower minimum taxes on beverages, and withdraw supplementary duty on bottled water. Representatives from 10 organisations shared their proposals during the session.

In another development, officials from the National Board of Revenue (NBR) have indicated that the 7.5% advance tax on newsprint imports for the newspaper industry may be withdrawn.

A senior official told The Business Standard the proposal was presented to the finance minister during a pre-budget meeting yesterday, and the minister responded positively.

The move follows a request by the Newspaper Owners' Association of Bangladesh (NOAB) to reduce or remove import duties and taxes on newsprint. Although the tax is refundable later, industry representatives have long raised concerns over the complex refund process.

Oil prices climbed more than $4 on Thursday after President Donald Trump said the United States would continue to attack Iran, including energy and oil targets over the next few weeks, and did not commit to a specific timeline to end the war.

Brent crude futures rose $4.88, or 4.8%, to $106.04 per barrel by 0200 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up $4.17, or 4.2%, to $104.29 per barrel.

The gains come after both benchmarks had fallen more than $1 earlier on Thursday ahead of Trump's speech and had settled lower in the previous session.

Trump said in a televised speech to the nation that the US military had nearly completed its goals in its war with Iran, and that the conflict would soon be ending, but gave no specific timeline.

"We are going to finish the job, and we're going to finish it very fast. We're getting very close," he said.

Threats to maritime traffic have grown as the conflict intensifies across the region. Most recently on Wednesday, an oil tanker leased to QatarEnergy was hit by an Iranian cruise missile in Qatari waters, its defence ministry said.

The head of the International Energy Agency cautioned on Wednesday that supply disruptions will start to impact Europe's economy in April. The continent had previously been shielded by cargoes contracted before the war started.

Bangladesh faces three major economic challenges – an inherited fragile economy, low revenue collection, and rising expenditure due to the Middle East war, Finance and Planning Adviser Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury has said.

"We aim to address these challenges by increasing investment, boosting employment, and raising domestic revenue," he said today (1 April), while responding to journalists after a meeting with National Board of Revenue (NBR) officials at the Revenue Building in Agargaon.

He said the government aims to revive the fragile economy by creating an investment-friendly environment instead of relying on borrowing and printing money.

"The government is shifting its focus from a debt-driven economy to an investment-led one," he reiterated.

The government will move away from excessive money printing to keep the economy stable, the adviser added.

"Strengthening the economy is essential to increase the tax-to-GDP ratio, and both local and foreign investment will be the main drivers of that strength," he said.

To restore investor confidence, the adviser said frequent policy changes would be avoided.

"Policies will remain stable for a defined period to allow long-term planning," he said.

"The government will move towards deregulation to ease investment," he added.

Bangladesh Bank has enlisted seven Cost and Management Accountant (CMA) firms to conduct audits of applications for export subsidies and cash incentives, according to a central bank directive issued today (1 April).

In a circular issued to all authorised dealer banks, the central bank said each approved CMA firm may undertake auditing assignments for up to three banks in a given financial year.

The seven approved CMA firms are A. Hannan & Co, Hossain & Co, Mujibur Rahman & Co, Podder & Associates, Safe‑Q Associates & Co, Saifur Enayet & Associates and SAM & Associates.

Previously, only chartered accountant firms were permitted to carry out these audits.

Bangladesh Bank expects the move will help ensure greater transparency in the distribution of export incentives and speed up the audit process.

Bangladesh’s financial sector achieved a historic milestone as remittance inflows surged to a record-breaking US$3.75 billion in March 2026, the highest monthly figure ever recorded in the nation’s history.Bangladesh stock alerts

According to data released by Bangladesh Bank today, the March 2026 performance represents a significant leap over previous peaks, comfortably eclipsing the prior record of $3.29 billion established in March 2025.

In March 2026, global remittance performance reached the record high of $3.75 billion, surpassing the previous high-water marks of $3.29 billion in March 2025 and $3.22 billion in December 2025.

This unprecedented surge reflects a broader stabilization and growth trajectory that gained significant momentum following the political transition in late 2024.

The national economy has observed a sustained upward trend in remittance inflows since August 2024, following the fall of the previous Awami League government. These inflows have demonstrated remarkable resilience in recent months, remaining strong despite geopolitical volatility and ongoing unrest in parts of the Middle East, a primary hub for the Bangladeshi expatriate workforce.

Bangladesh Bank officials have attributed this surge in formal inflows to a series of strategic regulatory interventions and more rigorous oversight.

The central bank has focused on ensuring that foreign earnings are processed through legitimate financial institutions to bolster the national reserve.

Stocks staged a strong comeback today (1 April), with the benchmark Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) index posting a sharp gain after the government decided against raising fuel prices despite ongoing global energy market volatility.

The DSEX index surged 94 points, or 1.82%, to close at 5,272, recovering from a recent downturn linked to Middle East tensions. The blue-chip DS30 index also rose 41 points to settle at 2,001, reflecting renewed buying interest in fundamentally strong stocks.

Market activity turned decisively positive, with 327 advancing issues against 39 decliners, while 25 remained unchanged. Turnover rose significantly to Tk720 crore, and overall market capitalisation increased by around Tk4,000 crore.

Analysts and participants attributed the rally to improved investor sentiment following the government's decision, which eased fears of inflationary pressures and rising business costs.

EBL Securities noted the rebound came after three consecutive sessions of losses, driven by broad-based bargain hunting. Buying pressure intensified throughout the day, leading to widespread price appreciation across sectors.

Sector-wise, pharmaceuticals dominated turnover at 16.4%, followed by engineering and textile sectors at 11.3% each. Top turnover leaders included Orion Infusion, Summit Alliance Port, Khan Brothers PP Woven Bag, Acme Pesticides, and City Bank, highlighting diversified participation.

All major sectors posted gains, with mutual funds leading at 4.9%, services up 3.6%, and general insurance rising 3.1%. Silva Pharma topped the gainers' list with a 10% rise, followed by Bangladesh National Insurance and Apex Spinning. Several mutual funds, including EBL NRB Mutual Fund and First Bangladesh Fixed Income Fund, were also among the top performers.

The financial sector, however, faced some pressure, with Peoples Leasing, Fareast Finance, and International Leasing among the top losers.

The positive trend was mirrored at the Chittagong Stock Exchange, where the CSCX index rose 118 points to 9,021, and the CASPI index gained 200 points to 14,779, with turnover at Tk42.51 crore.

The dollar largely held steady on Wednesday as investors grew cautiously optimistic about prospects ​for a ceasefire in the Middle East conflict, though mixed signals kept markets on edge.

The yen has recovered from this year's ‌low of 160.46 per dollar, moving back through the psychologically important 160 level that had fanned concerns about intervention by Japanese authorities. The euro hit more than a one-week high.

"Looking at the market as a whole, expectations for a ceasefire are basically rising, so I think the reversal of the long-running 'buy dollars, sell yen' trade is likely to ​continue," said Sho Suzuki, market analyst at Matsui Securities.

Still, Suzuki added the move has not become a one-way shift into the yen ​gaining momentum due to concerns that the conflict may not wind down easily.

The dollar index , which measures the greenback ⁠against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, was last down 0.03 percent at 99.70, slipping to a one-week low. The euro edged ​up 0.2 percent at $1.1574.

The Japanese yen was flat against the greenback at 158.63 per dollar. Sterling strengthened 0.29 percent to $1.3261.

The White House said US President Donald Trump would ​address the nation "to provide an important update on Iran" at 9 p.m. EDT on Wednesday (0100 GMT on Thursday). The president said earlier in the day the US could end its military campaign against Iran within two to three weeks, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Fox News Washington could see the "finish line" in the Iran war.

At the same time, ​there were signs of escalation in the conflict. US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the next few days in the war against Iran would be ​decisive and warned Tehran that the conflict would intensify if it did not make a deal.

The Wall Street Journal also reported the United Arab Emirates is preparing to help ‌the US ⁠and other allies open the key Strait of Hormuz waterway by force. The Israel Defense Forces said a surface-to-air missile downed an Israeli military drone during operational activity in southern Lebanon overnight, and missiles and drones continued to strike across the Gulf.

Nitol Insurance PLC, a listed insurer on the stock exchange, has recommended a 10% cash dividend for its shareholders for 2025.

In 2024, the company paid a 10% dividend, comprising 5% stock and 5% cash, according to company data.

Following the declaration, its share price today (1 April) surged by 3.66%, or Tk1, to Tk28.30 at the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE).

According to a disclosure published yesterday (31 March) on the stock exchange website, its earnings per share (EPS) declined to Tk1.93 for 2025, from Tk1.97 in the previous year.

Its net asset value per share stood at Tk31.30 and net operating cash flow per share at Tk0.28, compared to Tk31.33 and Tk0.22, respectively, in 2024.

The insurer has called its annual general meeting (AGM) on 12 July through a digital platform. The record date has been fixed for 10 May to determine eligible shareholders, the disclosure said.

Nitol Insurance was listed on the stock exchanges in 2005.

As of February, sponsor-directors held 35% of its shares, institutional investors 25.93%, and the general public 39.07%, according to available data.

বাংলাদেশ ক্যাপিটাল মার্কেট সেন্টিমেন্ট সার্ভে ২০২৬-এ অংশগ্রহণকারীদের মতামতে বিষয়টি উঠে এসেছে। লংকাবাংলা সিকিউরিটিজ এ সার্ভে পরিচালনা করেছে। এতে বিভিন্ন প্রতিষ্ঠানের প্রধান নির্বাহী, পেশাজীবী, শেয়ার লেনদেনে সংশ্লিষ্ট নির্বাহী, ক্ষুদ্র বিনিয়োগকারী, স্বতন্ত্র ব্যবসাপ্রতিষ্ঠান, ছাত্রসহ অন্যান্য শ্রেণীর মানুষ মতামত দিয়েছেন।
বাংলাদেশ ক্যাপিটাল মার্কেট সেন্টিমেন্ট সার্ভে ২০২৬-এ দেশের অর্থনীতি, পুঁজিবাজার ও আর্থিক বাজারের বিভিন্ন বিষয়ে অংশগ্রহণকারীরা তাদের মতামত তুলে ধরেছেন। এতে দেশের অর্থনীতি নিয়ে একধরনের মিশ্র ও সতর্ক আশাবাদ প্রকাশ করা হয়েছে। ২৯ দশমিক ৭ শতাংশ উত্তরদাতার মতে, জিডিপি প্রবৃদ্ধি ৪ দশমিক ৫ থেকে ৫ দশমিক ৫ শতাংশের মধ্যে থাকবে। রেমিট্যান্স ও রিজার্ভ নিয়ে তারা ইতিবাচক ধারণা পোষণ করেছেন। ৩৯ দশমিক ৬ শতাংশ মনে করেন, রেমিট্যান্স ৩০ বিলিয়ন ডলার ছাড়িয়ে যাবে এবং ৪৭ দশমিক ৫ শতাংশ মনে করেন, বৈদেশিক মুদ্রার রিজার্ভ ৩০ বিলিয়ন ডলারের বেশি হবে।

৫৬ দশমিক ৪ শতাংশ উত্তরদাতার মতে, রাজনৈতিক ও প্রশাসনিক অনিশ্চয়তা হলো অর্থনীতির সবচেয়ে বড় ঝুঁকি। এছাড়া মূল্যস্ফীতি ও আর্থিক অস্থিরতাকেও বড় চ্যালেঞ্জ হিসেবে দেখা হচ্ছে। ৪৪ দশমিক ৬ শতাংশ মনে করেন ব্যাংক খাতের সংস্কার কিছুটা উন্নতি ঘটিয়েছে। যুবকদের কর্মসংস্থান এবং দুর্নীতি দমনকে ২০২৬ সালের প্রধান সংস্কারের ক্ষেত্র হিসেবে চিহ্নিত করা হয়েছে।

উত্তরদাতাদের বড় একটি অংশ ২৭ দশমিক ৭ শতাংশ আশা করছেন, ডিএসইএক্স সূচক ২০২৬ সাল শেষে ৫ হাজার ৫০০ থেকে ৬ হাজার পয়েন্টে গিয়ে দাঁড়াবে। দৈনিক গড় লেনদেন ৪০০-৬০০ কোটি টাকার মধ্যে থাকার সম্ভাবনা বেশি। পুঁজিবাজারে প্রবৃদ্ধির ক্ষেত্রে ব্যাংক খাত সবচেয়ে এগিয়ে থাকবে বলে মনে করছেন ৪৬ দশমিক ৫ শতাংশ উত্তরদাতা। এর পরেই রয়েছে ওষুধ ও রসায়ন এবং তথ্যপ্রযুক্তি খাত। ৪১ দশমিক ৬ শতাংশ উত্তরদাতা সাধারণ শেয়ার বা ইকুইটিকে সেরা সম্পদ হিসেবে মনে করছেন। এছাড়া ২৬ দশমিক ৭ শতাংশ উত্তরদাতা স্বর্ণে বিনিয়োগকে লাভজনক মনে করছেন। রাজনৈতিক ঝুঁকি (৪৩ দশমিক ৬ শতাংশ) এবং সুশাসনের অভাবকে (২৩ দশমিক ৮ শতাংশ) পুঁজিবাজারে বিদেশী বিনিয়োগ আসার পথে প্রধান বাধা হিসেবে মনে করছেন উত্তরদাতারা।

জরিপে অংশগ্রহণকারী ৬১ দশমিক ৪ শতাংশ উত্তরদাতা বিশ্বাস করেন, ২০২৫ সালের তুলনায় ২০২৬ সালে পুঁজিবাজারের স্বচ্ছতা ও সততা বাড়বে। ৪১ দশমিক ৬ শতাংশ মনে করেন, বাজার কারসাজি ও জালিয়াতি হলো বর্তমান বাজারের সবচেয়ে বড় নৈতিক সমস্যা। বিনিয়োগকারীদের আস্থা ফেরাতে আর্থিক প্রতিবেদনের স্বচ্ছতা (৩১ দশমিক ৭ শতাংশ) এবং আইনের কঠোর প্রয়োগের (২৮ দশমিক ৭ শতাংশ) ওপর সবচেয়ে বেশি গুরুত্ব দিয়েছেন উত্তরদাতারা। প্রায় ৪৬ দশমিক ৫ শতাংশ উত্তরদাতা মনে করেন, ইটিএফ, গ্রিন বন্ড ও রিয়েল এস্টেট ইনভেস্টমেন্ট ট্রাস্টের মতো নতুন পণ্য বাজারে আসা অত্যন্ত জরুরি।

Gold prices rose on Wednesday to their highest in nearly two weeks, supported by a weaker dollar following US President Donald Trump’s statement that the war with Iran could wind down ​in weeks.

Spot gold rose 1 percent to $4,717.82 per ounce by 0712 GMT, its highest level ​since March 20. US gold futures for April delivery gained 1.4 percent to $4,744.30. The US dollar fell 0.4 percent, making bullion more affordable for holders of other currencies.

Trump said Tehran did ​not have to make a deal as a prerequisite for the conflict to wind down ​and that he would provide an update on Iran in an address at 9 pm EDT on Wednesday (0100 GMT on Thursday).

“Talks that the US might wrap up the war in two to three weeks even if the ​Strait (of Hormuz) is not reopened reinvigorated the US equity markets (overnight) and pulled gold higher along ​with it,” said Marex analyst Edward Meir.

Gold fell more than 11 percent in March in its steepest monthly ‌decline since October 2008 as elevated oil prices fuelled inflation concerns and bets of a hawkish monetary policy response. Oil prices gained on Wednesday despite hopes of a de-escalation in the Iran conflict, as infrastructure damage is likely to keep supplies tight.

“Market remains cautious about over-interpreting the de-escalation remark ​as a clean pivot... ​We’ve already seen ⁠multiple rounds where talks appeared constructive before stalling,” said Christopher Wong, a strategist at OCBC.

Traders have almost completely priced out any chance of ​a US rate cut this year from about two cuts expected before ​the war.

While ⁠gold is often used as a hedge against inflation and geopolitical risks, high interest rates make the non-yielding bullion less attractive among investors.

“Should geopolitical tensions de-escalate further, then expectations for Fed easing ⁠could return. ​In such a scenario, real yields can ease, providing ​support for gold,” said Wong of OCBC.

The government is set to keep fuel prices unchanged for April, despite a recent uptick in international oil markets, prioritising public relief over immediate price adjustments, according to the Energy and Mineral Resources Division (EMRD).

In recent days, authorities concerned had been considering a partial alignment of domestic fuel prices with global trends, which would have led to a price increase.

However, the move has now been shelved in view of mounting public hardship, officials said.

Fuel stock remains stable as nationwide drives intensify against illegal hoarding

Sources at the energy division confirmed that, even with a significant subsidy burden, the government is leaning towards maintaining existing prices for the month of April.

A circular has been issued this evening, to this end, stating that based on the "Fuel Pricing Guidelines", the government has determined and approved the consumer-level retail prices for fuel.

The price of diesel remains at Tk100 per litre, octane at Tk120 per litre, petrol at Tk116 per litre, and kerosene at Tk112 per litre.

The circular further states that these prices remain unchanged and will continue to be effective from 1 April.

The notification was signed by Enamul Huq, senior assistant secretary of the EMRD, and was addressed to the chairman of the Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation.

Yesterday, the EMRD had said the government was reviewing proposals from state-owned distributors to adjust fuel prices, while simultaneously assessing the subsidy implications under multiple pricing scenarios.

"We have received the proposal from distributors regarding a fuel price adjustment. We are now examining it carefully," EMRD Joint Secretary Monir Hossain Chowdhury told a press conference at the Ministry of Power, Energy and Mineral Resources.

The discussion on hiking fuel prices comes in the face of a global crisis stemming from the Middle East war. In order to cope with energy shortages, prices have increased in many neighbouring countries, and some countries have even shut down educational institutions due to energy shortages.

Earlier, Home Minister Salahuddin Ahmed said keeping fuel prices unchanged in the country, despite their rise in international markets following the Middle East war, was a major success of the government.

The government has reiterated that Bangladesh faces no actual fuel shortage, even as the ongoing conflict in the Middle East disrupts global energy markets, maintaining that supply remains stable and manageable with plans underway to build longer-term reserves, including a 90-day fuel stock.

Officials stressed that recent supply pressures are largely the result of hoarding by a section of traders, creating artificial scarcity rather than reflecting real deficits.

Energy Minister Iqbal Hasan Mahmud said that supply constraints at times were due to logistical delays rather than a lack of fuel. "There is enough fuel… people will get it, but they should not buy more than necessary," he said, urging consumers to avoid panic purchases.

State Minister for Power, Energy, and Mineral Resources Anindha Islam Amit said that long queues at filling stations were caused by a sudden spike in demand.

He urged consumers to avoid stockpiling, reassuring them that both fuel and electricity remain stable.

The state minister said around Tk167 crore is being spent daily to stabilise fuel prices and ease public suffering, as any price hike would immediately increase electricity tariffs, transport fares and food prices.

Recent fuel arrivals

Early today (31 March), a Panama-flagged vessel, PVT Solana, carrying 30,000 tonnes of diesel from Malaysia, berthed at Chattogram Port, marking the eighth fuel shipment to arrive this month.

The Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation (BPC) confirmed that the diesel may be unloaded either via lightering or directly at the dolphin jetty, with final arrangements pending.

Another vessel carrying a similar quantity is expected on 3 April, while a ship transporting around 70,000 tonnes of LNG is due on 4 April. Over the past month, 33 vessels have docked, including 15 carrying fuel oil, eight with LNG, and nine transporting LPG.

Officials said that Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation plans to boost diesel imports from India's Numaligarh Refinery, while Petrobangla has secured nine LNG cargoes for April.

Govt plans strategy to battle crisis

State Minister for Foreign Affairs Shama Obead Islam outlined the government's multi-pronged strategy to secure an uninterrupted fuel supply and strengthen reserves.

Bangladesh is actively engaging with multiple countries – including Saudi Arabia, India, Malaysia, Indonesia, the United States, and Russia – to ensure continued imports.

Several consignments are expected in April under existing agreements and memorandums of understanding.

On fuel imports from Russia, the state minister said the issue of sanctions requires procedural considerations, including engagement with the United States, adding that the relevant ministries are in discussions to resolve such matters.

"There is no fuel crisis at the moment. We have sufficient reserves, and efforts are underway to strengthen our stock further," she said, emphasising that traders creating artificial pressure must be addressed strictly.

India’s rupee fell to a record low of more than 95 to the dollar on Monday, before recovering, despite recent efforts by the central bank to stem its fall.

The rupee was among Asia’s worst forex performers in 2025, and its underperformance has continued well into this year, hitting new lows on a regular basis.

Experts say the Middle East war has piled more pressure on the currency, as overseas investors offload Indian shares, and as concerns grow over India’s rising energy import bill and the possibility of a wider current account deficit.

On Monday afternoon, the rupee hit 95.21, down 0.3 percent from Friday’s close, before recovering later to 94.83.

The world’s most populous nation is one of the “most vulnerable economies within Asia to an energy price shock”, analysts at Nomura wrote in a note on Monday.

This has partly caused overseas investors to sell around $12 billion in Indian equities in March so far.

“Foreign outflows from Indian equities could intensify, if the Middle East conflict tightens global financial conditions significantly,” Nomura analysts added.

More significantly, the rupee’s drop comes despite recent interventions by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to stem the fall, including via aggressive dollar sales.

On Friday, the RBI clamped down on speculation in the foreign exchange market by limiting to $100 million the daily currency positions that lenders can have.

“By capping onshore exposure, the RBI forces unwind ... long-dollar positions, draining speculative fuel from the market,” Raj Gaikar of SAMCO Securities told AFP.

Gaikar, however, added that while the measure worked “in intent”, it is not a “trend reversal”.

“Crude above $100 and persistent FII (foreign institutional investor) outflows remain structural headwinds that no position cap can fully neutralise.”

Gold rose on Tuesday but stayed on track ‌for its biggest monthly drop in more than 17 years as investors flocked to the dollar as the favoured safe haven amid the Middle East war that has raised inflation fears and bets for hawkish monetary policy response.

Spot gold ​climbed 0.9 percent to $4,550.68 per ounce by 0727 GMT. US gold futures for April delivery gained ​0.5 percent to $4,580.70.

Bullion has declined more than 13 percent this month, putting it on track for its steepest decline since October 2008. Prices are, however, up about 5 percent for the quarter, having ​scaled a record high of $5,594.82 on January 29. Prices are down 18.70 percent from record highs.

“Traders are still seeing ​gold through the lens of a value investment at these levels, given where the precious metal was trading just a few months ago. So, it’s a combination of falling oil, a dip in the dollar and attractive buying levels, ​which has propelled gold higher today,” said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst, KCM Trade.

Gold is typically seen ​as a hedge against inflation and geopolitical risks, but the war-driven surge in energy costs is also raising expectations ‌for higher interest rates and boosting the dollar’s appeal as the preferred safe haven.

The dollar was headed for its biggest monthly gain since July, making it as the strongest safe asset, supported by the US status as an energy exporter and investors’ flight to cash over the past month of conflict.

Traders have almost ​completely priced out any chance ​of a US rate ⁠cut this year from about two cuts expected before the war.

“If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, oil prices could remain volatile with potential for ​further upside on supply constraints. So, this high oil story, which has plagued ​gold prices ⁠since the conflict began, hasn’t gone away yet,” Waterer said.

Goldman Sachs, however, said it continues to expect gold prices will reach $5,400 per troy ounce by end‑2026 on central bank diversification and Federal Reserve easing.

The dollar headed for its biggest monthly gain since July on Tuesday and stands out as the strongest so-called ​safe asset, as war in the Middle East has set oil prices surging, nearly everything else sinking and raised the risk ‌of global recession.

Developed market currencies were broadly steady on the day, with the Japanese yen unchanged at 159.62 per dollar, the euro flat at $1.1472 and the pound 0.14 percent higher at $1.3202 .

But still all three were set for March falls of more than 2 percent. For the euro and pound, that is the largest drop since July, and since October for ​the yen.

The dollar has been supported by the US status as an energy exporter and by investors’ flight to cash over the past ​month of conflict.

The latest news from the war, including a Wall Street Journal report that US President Donald Trump was ⁠willing to end attacks on Iran without forcing open the Strait of Hormuz, did little for currencies on Tuesday, but did underscore their monthly moves.

“The ​lack of a clear plan to reopen the Strait continues to pose upside risks to global energy prices,” said Lee Hardman, senior currency analyst at MUFG.

“The ​potential for a bigger hit to growth outside of the US continues to encourage a stronger US dollar,” he said.

Asian currencies have suffered some of the largest losses and, on Tuesday, the dollar pushed 1 percent higher against South Korea’s won , to 1,534 won, levels touched only in the wake of the global financial crisis in 2009 and the Asian ​financial crisis in 1997 and 1998.

The dollar index, which tracks the unit against six main peers, touched its highest since last May at 100.64 and, ​last sitting at 100.47, is up 2.8 percent through March.

Bangladesh Bank has decided to introduce an Islamic interbank money market within the current fiscal year to provide Shariah-compliant banks with a structured platform for managing short-term liquidity.

At present, Islamic banks are unable to borrow through the conventional call money market due to Shariah restrictions, often leaving them under pressure during liquidity shortages.

The proposed market is set to create an alternative funding mechanism, making liquidity management more efficient. It will be open not only to full-fledged Islamic banks but also to conventional banks operating Islamic branches and windows.

To develop the framework, the Bangladesh Bank has reviewed international practices, particularly in countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia, and Bahrain, where Islamic interbank money markets are well-established. The central bank has also engaged with its counterparts in these jurisdictions.

Under the proposed system, transactions will be allowed for tenors of 1, 7, 14, 28, 90 and 180 days. Both collateralised and uncollateralised borrowing options will be available. The central bank has already circulated a policy outline among commercial banks.

An earlier attempt to introduce a similar interbank arrangement for Islamic banks in 2011 failed to gain traction. The renewed initiative is part of broader efforts to strengthen liquidity conditions in the sector.

Conventional banks can easily manage liquidity shortages by borrowing from the call money market. The initial plan to establish a similar interbank market for Islamic banks was conceived during the tenure of former governor Ahsan H Mansur.

A positive sign for the sector

Arfan Ali, former managing director of Bank Asia, noted that the absence of an interbank mechanism had often forced Islamic banks to seek funds outside Shariah-compliant frameworks.

"Once introduced, Islamic banks will be able to transfer funds among themselves, which is a positive development," he said.

He added that banks with surplus funds would be able to lend to those facing shortages, easing temporary liquidity constraints. "Currently, some Islamic banks rely on borrowing from other banks or receive special support from the central bank due to the lack of suitable financial instruments."

A senior official at a Shariah-based bank said, "Islamic institutions cannot borrow from conventional banks or access central bank liquidity through repo operations. While they can raise funds through Islamic sukuk, the volume remains insufficient compared to demand."

What Islamic banks do now

At present, Islamic banks rely on several mechanisms to manage liquidity. These include the Islamic Bank Liquidity Facility, where sukuk must be provided as collateral to obtain support from the central bank.

They also use the Bangladesh Government Islamic Investment Bond, where banks with surplus funds place deposits for three- and six-month tenors. However, this fund is currently inactive due to a lack of available resources.

In addition, Islamic banks manage liquidity through interbank deposits based on mudaraba principles, offering profit-sharing returns. In times of cash shortfall, banks often rely on deposits from peer institutions to bridge gaps.

According to a senior Bangladesh Bank official, the proposed interbank market will provide a more organised platform for liquidity management without direct intervention from the central bank, although it will remain under regulatory monitoring.

The platform will also help the central bank better assess liquidity demand and supply within the Islamic banking segment, an area that is currently difficult to track accurately.

What the new system will offer

Industry insiders believe the new system will increase flexibility in fund management. Banks facing short-term deficits, such as overnight imbalances in current accounts, will be able to borrow from other Islamic banks instead of depending solely on the central bank.

However, concerns remain regarding newly formed or financially weak banks. A senior official noted that such institutions may initially struggle to attract funds from the interbank market due to concerns over repayment capacity and limited income streams.

The managing director of a bank said the implementation of this system would enhance flexibility in fund transfers among Islamic banks. Rather than relying solely on the central bank for short-term fund management, banks would be able to source liquidity from their peers, he said.

"If a bank's current account suddenly turns negative, it could borrow overnight from another bank to return to a positive balance, thereby significantly expanding the options available to these institutions," said the banker.

However, a senior Bangladesh Bank official noted that it will be challenging for Sammilito Islami Bank to secure interbank loans immediately following its formation. There is an underlying concern regarding whether funds lent to this newly established institution would be recoverable, he said.

Not a long-term solution

Experts have cautioned that the initiative should not be viewed as a long-term solution. A former managing director of a private Islamic bank said that while the interbank market can help manage short-term liquidity pressures, it cannot resolve deeper structural issues, including those arising from financial irregularities.

"If mismanaged, using interbank funds to address long-term crises could backfire," he warned, emphasising the need for strong central bank oversight to ensure proper utilisation of borrowed funds.

Islami Bank Bangladesh Limited has sought the recovery of nearly Tk10,000 crore owed by five Shariah-based banks, raising the issue during a meeting with Bangladesh Bank Governor Mostaqur Rahman on Tuesday (31 March).

The meeting was held at the central bank's headquarters at 11:30am, where the governor met the bank's board. It was attended by the bank's chairman, board members, the managing director and other senior officials.

According to sources, Islami Bank Bangladesh Chairman M Zubaidur Rahman urged the prompt recovery of outstanding dues during the discussion.

Sources said Islami Bank also has dues pending from state-owned Janata Bank Limited. In addition, the bank informed the central bank that around Tk1,000 crore in remittance incentives remains pending and requested the release of the funds from Bangladesh Bank.

The lender also sought regulatory support in recovering large loans, relaxation in provisioning requirements under special circumstances, and guidance on maintaining relations with major industrial groups.

In response, Moshtaqur assured the board that the issues would be examined seriously and that decisions on support would be communicated soon, while also pledging full support for smooth operations.

A senior Bangladesh Bank official told The Business Standard that the governor also asked about the bank's operational challenges and instructed relevant departments to review the matters.

The discussion comes as Islami Bank continues efforts to recover from a prolonged governance crisis.

On 17 February, Bangladesh Bank removed board member Md Abdul Jalil and appointed accountant SM Abdul Hamid in his place.

From 2017 until August 2024, before the fall of the Awami League government, the bank was effectively controlled by the S Alam Group.

During that period, nearly Tk1.2 lakh crore was withdrawn under various names and roughly 10,000 officials were irregularly appointed, pushing the bank into a deep crisis.

After the interim government assumed office in 2024, the bank's board was restructured, with several senior officials leaving the country. Md Abdul Jalil was later appointed to the reconstituted board.

Tuesday's meeting marked Governor Moshtaqur's second discussion with the board.

During the first meeting, he noted that Islami Bank had once been a strong institution but had suffered governance lapses in recent years. He also assured full support from the central bank to restore stability, stressing that the bank must not serve the interests of any single group, political party or family.

Meanwhile, A report submitted by Bangladesh Bank to the Anti-Corruption Commission alleged that the S Alam Group had taken nearly Tk1.9 lakh crore in loans from four of the eight banks it controlled.

Of that amount, Islami Bank alone accounted for about Tk1.05 lakh crore.

The Bangladesh Financial Intelligence Unit reported that more than Tk93,000 crore was laundered through fraudulent companies.

According to the findings, Saiful Alam Masud, head of the S Alam Group, and related entities used their influence to secure the loans either directly or through intermediaries.

The government on Tuesday (31 March) approved the procurement of 1 lakh tonnes of refined diesel from Kazakhstan at a competitive rate of $76.41 per barrel to safeguard domestic supply against a volatile global market triggered by the Iran war.

The procurement from ExxonMobil Kazakhstan INC comes as Bangladesh secures a strategic diplomatic opening with the United States.

During a high-level meeting on 11 March at the Secretariat, Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury urged US Ambassador Brent T Christensen to grant Bangladesh temporary waivers for Russian oil imports, similar to the exemptions currently enjoyed by India.

Following the meeting, the finance minister confirmed that the request to support the national economy and ensure steady fuel supplies had been forwarded to the relevant authorities in Washington.

The decision to procure diesel from Kazakhstan was made at a meeting of the Cabinet Committee on Government Purchase, chaired by the finance minister, as Bangladesh moves to secure fuel supplies amid mounting geopolitical uncertainty and supply disruptions.

Case-by-case implementation

A senior Energy Division official told TBS that the US government has responded positively to the proposal by Bangladesh to purchase oil from Kazakhstan.

Washington is now providing feedback on a "case-by-case" basis, allowing Bangladesh to import from specific suppliers and ports that may have Russian associations without breaching international sanctions, he said.

ExxonMobil Kazakhstan, while operating in the Caspian region, often involves projects with Russian links; however, the firm currently adheres to US-mandated compliance standards.

This cooperative stance from Washington enabled the government to approve the $76.41 per barrel deal, which is significantly lower than other market offers.

The government remains cautious regarding new suppliers. Officials noted that while some firms have offered diesel even at lower rates, those deals were not pursued after the US authorities expressed concerns via the Bangladesh Embassy in Washington.

Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation Chairman Md Rezanur Rahman told this newspaper that ExxonMobil expressed confidence in the Bangladeshi market through its own internal reviews.

A "Notification of Award" is set to be issued today (1 April), with the high-quality, low-sulphur diesel expected to reach the country within 15 days of the contract signing and Letter of Credit (LC) opening, he said.

Two more fuel import proposals

In addition to the Exxon Mobil Kazakhstan deal, the committee approved two more fuel import proposals. One involves the purchase of 60,000 tonnes of refined diesel at $221.08 per barrel (including a $5.33 premium) from Indonesia's PT Bumi Siak Pusako Zapin under a government-to-government arrangement.

The other allows for the import of 1,00,000 tonnes of crude oil at $137.14 per barrel (including a $15 premium) from Malaysia-based Abeer Trade and Global Markets via the direct procurement method.

Meanwhile, three additional fuel import proposals were withdrawn at the meeting due to various inconsistencies.

Not guaranteed yet

However, officials cautioned that not all approved deals materialise, as some suppliers fail to meet conditions such as providing performance guarantees. The government has maintained a strict stance against opening letters of credit without such guarantees.

An official from the Energy Division said, "Several companies have yet to deliver fuel, despite receiving approval from the Cabinet Committee on Government Purchase."

BPC to invite tenders for new fuel suppliers

To enhance supply security and ensure competitive pricing, BPC plans to expand its pool of suppliers by inviting new participants, with several international firms already expressing interest in entering the Bangladeshi market.

The BPC is set to publish a notice within this week to enlist new suppliers. This initiative aims to diversify BPC's sourcing of fuel oils and secure more competitive pricing.

According to the BPC chairman, at least 20 international companies have already expressed interest in supplying fuel to Bangladesh. Consequently, BPC has decided to expand its pool of enlisted suppliers, a move expected to make the procurement of both refined and crude oil more efficient, transparent, and competitive.

Currently, Saudi Arabian Oil Company (Saudi Aramco) and Abu Dhabi National Oil Company are the only listed suppliers of crude oil. For refined fuel, nine companies are currently registered.

No fuel price hike for April

Meanwhile, the government on Tuesday decided to keep fuel prices unchanged for April, despite a recent uptick in international oil markets, prioritising public relief over immediate price adjustments.

Officials said the decision not to raise fuel prices was taken after considering multiple factors, particularly the inflationary pressure across sectors that would heavily impact consumers.

Another key concern is the uncertainty in the global energy market.

Officials said the government thinks any increase in diesel prices would have an immediate and widespread impact on daily life.

"If transport costs were to surge, that would trigger fare hikes and commuter frustration. The ripple effects would quickly spread to kitchen markets and grocery stores, fuelling a broader price spiral," said an official.

The US national average retail ​price of gasoline crossed $4 a gallon for the first time in more than three years on Monday, data ‌from price tracking services GasBuddy showed, as the US-Israeli war with Iran continued to roil global energy markets.

The $4 per gallon milestone was last reached in August 2022 following Russia's invasion of Ukraine and represents what some analysts have called a psychological barrier for consumers. Prices for many goods are climbing, including oil ​used to make gasoline, following Iran's essential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key trade chokepoint.

Surging fuel prices ​have started to weigh on US household finances, which were already grappling with rising costs. They have ⁠also become a political headache for President Donald Trump and his Republican Party ahead of the November midterm elections, as they campaign ​to hold onto thin majorities in the US Congress.

Trump had vowed to lower energy prices and ramp up US oil and gas ​production. But so far, much of his second term has been marked by volatile markets, geopolitical turmoil and shifting policies on issues such as tariffs.

US national average retail gasoline prices have climbed about $1.06 a gallon, or 36 percent, since the US and Israel attacked Iran at the end of February.

“A sudden outbreak of ​war leads to a spike in US gasoline to $4.00 per gallon. That describes the current Iran conflict - and also Russia’s invasion ​of Ukraine in 2022. Then, as now, oil prices soared around the world, and emergency oil stockpiles were tapped. But we envision this crisis being ‌shorter: ⁠whereas gas stayed above $4.00 for 23 weeks in 2022, we expect prices starting to cool in the next few weeks,” said Raymond James analyst Pavel Molchanov.

Still, pump prices could climb further if crude oil prices continue to surge. US oil futures have surged since the war began, settling at $102.88 a barrel on Monday, up $3.24. They jumped over $3 in Asian trading after Kuwait said an oil tanker was attacked ​at a Dubai port.

The Trump ​administration has taken steps to ⁠assuage the rise in energy prices as the war has dragged on, including a waiver of the Jones Act shipping law. The waiver temporarily allows foreign-flagged vessels to move fuel, fertilizer and other ​goods between US ports. Industry insiders expect it to have only a marginal impact on price ​increases.

The war in Iran has knocked the global economy off the path to growth, according to the OECD.

High gasoline prices ⁠are already squeezing US household finances. Some 55 percent of respondents in a Reuters/Ipsos poll said their household finances had taken at least "somewhat" of a toll from the increases in gas prices. Among those seeing an impact, 21 percent said their finances were affected "a great deal."

“The key issue is ⁠not simply crude oil itself. It is gasoline, the most visible price in the economy for consumers, and when that price jumps it hits psychology immediately,” Jeremy Siegel, economist at WisdomTree, said in a note.

“That matters, even if the broader economic effect is more balanced than the headlines.”