Bangladesh's private bank owners have urged the government to toughen laws to help recover huge default loans and heal the ills facing banks following "massive looting" during the past political regime
They placed the demand Tuesday at a meeting with Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury at his secretariat office in the capital, ahead of a crucial budget coming soon.

Chairman of Bangladesh Association of Banks (BAB) Abdul Hai Sarker led the delegation of bank owners at the meeting, where a detailed discussion took place on banking situation.

"If the government toughens the laws, at least 60 per cent of bad loans can be recovered very easily," Mr Sarker told The Financial Express after the meeting, referring to their talks with the minister.

He says they demanded preparing a law on mandatory physical presence of the loan defaulters at the court dock instead of allowing them to be represented by a lawyer only.

"Many loan defaulters who fled abroad are avoiding repayment of loans, and at the same time, ensuring presence at court by a representative which leads to inordinate delay in loan recovery."

Also, the BAB demanded bringing an amendment regarding how many people of a family can be director of a bank company.

Mr Sarker says they requested the finance minister to take measures so that people's confidence in banking sector can be restored. He says the finance minister has assured the bank owners that the government will follow international best practices in the case of banking sector.

"Necessary measures will be taken to eliminate the irregularities," Mr Sarker quoted the minister as saying.

Earlier, a delegation of the Foreign Investors' Chamber of Commerce and Industry (FICCI), led by its president Rupali Haque Chowdhury, met the finance minister at his office discussing the upcoming national budget for FY 2026-27 and broader economic priorities under the new government.

During the meeting, the two sides exchanged views on the country's investment climate, current economic challenges, and measures needed to attract greater foreign direct investment (FDI).

The FICCI representatives emphasised the importance of a predictable and business-friendly policy environment, highlighting the need for a long-term budgetary roadmap that would enable investors to better anticipate tax structures and make informed investment decisions.

The chamber also stressed the importance of competitive tax policies, policy consistency, and transparency to strengthen investor confidence and enhance Bangladesh's competitiveness among peer economies.

Ms Chowdhury told The Financial Express that during the meeting, they also discussed the corporate tax rate as nominal corporate rates may seem low but the effective tax rate remains excessively high due to various non-deductible expenses and administrative hurdles.

She underscores the need for broadening the tax base rather than increasing pressure on existing taxpayers, a principle the minister reportedly acknowledged as a necessary direction for future budgetary policy.

Senior vice-president of the FICCI Deepal Abeywickrema and vice-president Mohammad Iqbal Chowdhury also attended the meeting, among other directors.

The Bangladesh Bank is set to introduce stricter rules for transferring money from bank cards to mobile financial services (MFS) accounts, commonly known as "add money", amid growing concerns over cyber fraud and unauthorised transactions.

Under the new rules, which will take effect from 1 August this year, customers will only be able to transfer money from a bank card to an MFS account if both are registered under the same name. Banks and MFS providers will be required to verify that the receiving MFS account belongs to the cardholder.

The central bank decided to impose the restriction following a major fraud incident involving a foreign bank operating in Bangladesh, where fraudsters transferred money from customers' cards to MFS wallets through unauthorised transactions.

Officials familiar with the matter said the Payment Systems Department of the Bangladesh Bank is expected to issue a circular on the new measures soon.

As an interim arrangement until August, customers will still be able to transfer money from one person's card to another person's MFS account. However, a token transaction of up to Tk500 must first be completed during the card-linking process.

Regular transactions will only be permitted 24 hours after the successful completion of the token transaction and linking process.

The Bangladesh Bank has also instructed MFS providers to classify card-to-MFS add money transactions as "fund transfers" rather than "merchant payments". The central bank further said the beneficiary wallet number must remain visible to the card-issuing bank during transactions.

Banks and MFS providers that fail to ensure this facility by 31 July will not be allowed to offer add money services through those cards from 1 August onwards.

According to sector insiders and central bank officials, a cybercrime group in the last week of August 2025 syphoned off nearly Tk27 lakh from at least 54 customers of Standard Chartered Bank (SCB) by bypassing one-time password protections on credit and debit cards issued by bank and transferring funds to mobile wallets such as bKash and Nagad.

Victims had reported that without their knowledge or any transaction, Tk50,000 was transferred from their cards to bKash and Nagad accounts in each instance. The money was then quickly withdrawn by the fraud group, and the MFS accounts were immediately closed.

An investigation by The Business Standard found that the fraudsters used SIM cards and MFS accounts registered under other people's names to move the stolen funds.

Following the incident, SCB suspended the add money feature from its cards to MFS platforms.

Bangladesh Bank (BB) will not intervene in the dollar exchange rate in the near term, with the currency instead expected to be determined by market supply and demand, the central bank governor told treasury heads of banks at a meeting today (19 May).

A senior Bangladesh Bank official, who attended the meeting, confirmed the development to The Business Standard, saying the governor sought a clearer understanding of foreign exchange market operations and listened to bankers' concerns over current dynamics.

According to the official, the governor informed bankers that the central bank would no longer dictate the foreign exchange market and that exchange rates would be allowed to adjust based on supply and demand conditions.
=

He also said the regulator is working towards a more market-based foreign exchange regime. At the same time, the governor cautioned banks against any attempts to manipulate the dollar market.

However, a deputy managing director (DMD) of a private commercial bank told TBS that Bangladesh Bank had intervened in the foreign exchange market between March and April this year.

He alleged that during that period, central bank officials contacted banks and informally indicated a ceiling for dollar exchange rates.

The country's private sector credit growth fell to a historic low of 4.72% in March this year, reflecting weak business confidence, slowing investment and mounting uncertainty in the economy.

Economists and bankers said political uncertainty eased somewhat after the February election, but the deeper problems discouraging investment and new business activity remain unresolved.

In addition, the fuel crisis emerged as another contributing factor in March, leading to a sharp slowdown in bank lending growth compared with previous levels, they said.

Private sector credit growth had been declining steadily in recent months, falling from 6.58% in November 2025 to 6.20% in December, and then to 6.03% in both January and February 2026, before dropping sharply in March, central bank sources confirmed.

Outstanding loans to the private sector stood at Tk23.35 lakh crore in March 2026, according to Bangladesh Bank data.

Speaking to The Business Standard, Mustafizur Rahman, distinguished fellow at Centre for Policy Dialogue, said, "The major trend indicates that it is not increasing. Both necessary and sufficient factors are at work here."

"The necessary factor is political stability, which has improved somewhat after the election. But the sufficient factors – such as the cost of doing business, inflation, logistics policies and several other issues – have not seen any major changes."

He said the energy crisis added further pressure in March. "These problems already existed, and energy became an additional challenge. Inflation, the cost of doing business and other factors have created uncertainty," he added.

The Bangladesh Bank has been publishing private sector credit growth data since 2003. A review of the data shows March recorded the lowest growth in the past 24 years.

A deputy managing director of a private bank told TBS that many businesses shut down after the fall of the Awami League government, while others are operating far below capacity.

He said several factories owned by large business groups, including Nassa Group, Beximco Group and Gazi Group, had closed, reducing demand for bank borrowing. "When factories were operational, they imported capital machinery. But even the firms still running have reduced production by 60-70%," he said.

Bankers question BB's policy direction

Several managing directors of private banks told TBS they remain unclear about the central bank's policy direction in dealing with the current economic challenges.

Bankers said lending decisions depend heavily on broader policy clarity, including interest rates, exchange rates and inflation trends. They explained that when businesses seek loans for new investments or ventures, banks assess the overall policy environment, borrowing costs and the likely movement of the US dollar before approving financing.

One private bank managing director said the governor had spoken about lowering lending rates, but questioned how feasible that would be at a time of high inflation.

He also criticised Bangladesh Bank for holding the dollar exchange rate at Tk122.75 despite pressure on the local currency. Another MD said the central bank's decision to cap trade finance interest rates at 3% during a crisis period had created concerns.

He noted that the cost of foreign borrowing currently stands at SOFR plus 2.5%, while the additional cap on UPAS financing – a foreign currency-based import financing system – would further limit financing opportunities.

"If financing through UPAS becomes difficult, banks will have to lend in local currency at interest rates of 12-13%. The central bank believes this will increase credit growth, which is why rates on trade finance have been lowered. But this decision is not correct – it is a mistake," he said.

Another bank MD said businesses and banks remained uncertain about the central bank's main priority – whether it was controlling inflation, lowering interest rates or boosting GDP growth.

"There were expectations that many new projects would emerge after the election, but that has not happened," he said.

He added that the government's heavy borrowing from banks because of a revenue shortfall could further increase interest rates and crowd out private sector borrowers. "There is also uncertainty over where the exchange rate will stand in the next six months," he said.

Another bank MD said many large corporate firms had sought policy support from the central bank, signalling financial distress. "When companies need policy support, banks become less willing to finance them. It also becomes very difficult for those firms to make new investments or expand business operations," he said.

Banks shift towards government securities

With demand for private sector loans weakening, banks have increasingly turned to treasury bills and bonds for income.

A senior official at a private bank said lenders were moving towards safer government securities amid weak private investment.

At the same time, the government has been borrowing heavily from banks through treasury bills and bonds, including an additional Tk10,000 crore outside the regular borrowing calendar during the October-December quarter.

Limited opportunities for private investment have allowed banks to earn nearly 11% interest on what are effectively risk-free government securities. For many conventional banks, a growing share of income now comes from this segment.

Despite concerns at the start of 2025 over rising deposit rates, high inflation, political uncertainty and weak loan demand, stronger private banks have posted higher profits largely through earnings from government securities rather than loan expansion.

Bangladesh Bank data showed the government collected Tk33,000 crore through treasury bills in March this year. In April, the amount rose 39% month-on-month to Tk46,000 crore.

Of that amount, Tk32,800 crore was used to repay liabilities from previously issued treasury bills, leaving the government's net borrowing through treasury bills at Tk13,200 crore in April.

Rather than strengthening the capital market, the government is playing its habitual game of relying on banks for business financing.

This is evident in the central bank's latest decision to expand the single borrower exposure limit from 15 per cent to 25 per cent of a bank's capital.

The suspension of the effectiveness of the previous 15 per cent limit until June 2028 is feared to discourage new listings of companies from large conglomerates.

"The expansion of the exposure limit is a repetition of the same mistake that led to a systematic damage to the financial ecosystem," said Md. Ashequr Rahman, managing director of Midway Securities.

Long-term financing through banks has continued over the years against short-term deposits, which has proved to be disastrous for the banking sector after a substantial amount of loans turned sour.

Before the last national election, key representatives of the BNP said they, if voted to power, would prioritise the capital market instead of the money market in financing.

In November last year, BNP leader Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury, the incumbent finance minister, said at the Bangladesh Economic Summit that the party would put emphasis on energizing the capital market to lessen pressure on banks.Bangladesh travel guide

"We don't want to go to banks that are overused. We want to make the capital market vibrant and we're very serious about it," said Mr Chowdhury at the time.

The ruling party's election manifesto also included plans for the development of the capital market.

"All political parties spoke about a free economy, but eventually they preferred a managed economy after assuming office," said Mr Rahman while speaking with The FE over the phone on the latest policy of the Bangladesh Bank.

The change has been brought apparently to ease financial stress of the borrowers amid economic volatility.

With the high non-performing loan (NPL) ratio, however, the banks will face mounting pressure.

The overall banking sector's NPL ratio stood at over 30 per cent in December last year and deposits grew at a rate of 11.28 per cent year-on-year in February this year.

The deposit growth has not created enough room for fresh lending.

A lender having a 30 per cent NPL ratio means it has to serve purposes worth Tk 100 by Tk 70.

On receipt of fresh deposits worth Tk 11.28, the bank will be able to do the same job with Tk 81.28. Still, there is a shortfall of Tk 18.72. Besides, fresh deposits come with fresh interest liability.Global economy overview

The bank would have been in a better situation in terms of liquidity and for fresh lending had the deposit growth been at least equivalent to the NPL ratio.

In a situation like this, the expansion of the single borrower's exposure limit is not conducive to creating a healthy financial ecosystem.

Mr Rahman, of Midway Securities, said the BB decision is aimed at easing financial stress of business groups but they will borrow money from banks to execute long-term plans. "Will the central bank be able to restore the previous 15 per cent limit after two years?"

In the pre-budget meeting held between the National Board of Revenue (NBR) and stakeholders of the capital market, it was discussed that the companies that would exhaust a certain limit of credit must go to the capital market to raise more capital and that money could be raised through both equity and debt instruments.

After the promise of prioritising the capital market by the government and subsequent discussions in this regard with the revenue board, the central bank expanded the single borrower exposure limit.

Stakeholders of the capital market said both the securities regulator and the central bank are regulatory bodies. But the central bank enjoys the authority to take decisions without consulting other regulators.

On the other hand, since its inception in 1993, the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) has failed to establish its importance before the government and other regulatory bodies.

Alongside the failure of the BSEC, stock exchanges and professional bodies of the capital market have also been unable to play any role in bringing good companies, which heavily rely on bank financing, to the secondary market.

The government is considering the introduction of a refund mechanism for excess minimum tax paid by companies if the amount cannot be adjusted against future profits within a specified period – a move aimed at improving tax fairness and easing a major concern among domestic and foreign investors.

Officials at the National Board of Revenue told The Business Standard that the proposal, likely to be included in the upcoming national budget, would allow business entities to claim refunds of excess minimum tax after three years if they fail to offset the amount against future taxable income.

A senior NBR official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said, "We have long felt that a non-refundable minimum tax system conflicts with international standards and the principles of tax justice. The upcoming budget will contain a positive development in this regard."

Another official said companies would become eligible for such refunds after a set timeframe, which is currently being considered at three years.

"The refund process will be handled through an automated faceless system. Representatives of companies will not need to visit tax offices. Refunds will be automatically credited to their bank accounts," the official added.

Officials also said the NBR plans to strengthen compliance systems and data integration before implementing the refund mechanism to prevent abuse by non-compliant taxpayers.

Welcoming the move, business leaders and tax experts said the proposed reform could significantly improve Bangladesh's investment climate by reducing capital erosion caused by turnover-based taxation.

Under the existing system, companies are required to pay minimum tax based on turnover or gross receipts, regardless of whether they make a profit or incur losses. Businesses have long argued that the inability to recover excess minimum tax has sharply increased their effective tax burden, despite reductions in statutory corporate tax rates in recent years.

Bangladesh currently has around 3 crore registered business entities, although only about 30,000 submit tax returns, according to NBR officials. Minimum tax rates on company turnover range from 1% to 3.5%, while more than 30 other categories of taxpayers are also subject to minimum tax on gross receipts, with rates reaching as high as 20%.

Last year's budget allowed companies to carry forward excess minimum tax for adjustment against future tax liabilities. However, businesses argued that the provision offered little practical relief for firms facing prolonged losses or persistently low profit margins.

Concerns over effective tax burden

Corporate tax rates in Bangladesh have been reduced by nearly 10 percentage points over the past several years. Non-listed companies currently pay 27.5% corporate tax, while listed firms pay between 22.5% and 25%.

Despite these cuts, business groups have argued that high minimum taxes and the absence of refunds have pushed effective tax rates to nearly 50% in some cases.

Minimum tax was first introduced in Bangladesh in the fiscal 2012-13 to address widespread tax evasion among companies that repeatedly declared losses. NBR officials said about 60% of the income tax currently collected is collected as minimum tax.

Former NBR member for income tax policy Syed Md Aminul Karim said the system was originally introduced because the tax authority lacked the capacity to detect profit concealment effectively.

"Many companies used to show losses year after year to evade taxes. Since it was difficult for the NBR to uncover such evasion, the minimum tax system was introduced. However, compliant companies ended up suffering," he said.

Why businesses oppose minimum tax

Under the current regime, businesses must pay tax based on turnover even if their actual taxable income is lower.

For example, if a company pays Tk1 crore in minimum tax at a 2% turnover tax rate, but its final profit-based tax liability is only Tk70 lakh, the excess Tk30 lakh is not refunded under the existing system. As a result, the company's effective tax burden rises above the statutory corporate tax rate.

The problem becomes more severe for companies incurring losses as they are still required to pay minimum tax despite having no taxable income.

Mobile phone operator Robi Axiata said it has paid around Tk1,000 crore more in minimum tax than its actual tax liability over the years. Although the company has recently returned to stronger profitability, allowing it to offset excess taxes, Banglalink, another mobile phone operator, continues to face losses while remaining subject to minimum tax obligations.

The issue has been repeatedly raised by business organisations, including the Foreign Investors' Chamber of Commerce and Industry and the Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce and Industry.

Shahed Alam, chief corporate and regulatory officer of Robi Axiata, said turnover tax remains a major obstacle to business growth.

He added that the turnover tax imposes tax on gross revenue without considering whether a company is profitable or loss-making, making the system inconsistent with the principles of fair taxation.

Taimur Rahman, chief corporate and regulatory affairs officer of Banglalink, said, "Banglalink has been subject to minimum tax since FY2015 and, up to FY2024, the company has paid approximately Tk938.90 crore under the minimum tax regime. Since these taxes were paid despite the absence of taxable profits, the minimum tax mechanism has had a significant impact on the company's cash flow and investment capacity."

Wide coverage of minimum tax regime

Under the current Income Tax Act, mobile phone operators are subject to a 1.5% minimum tax on annual turnover. Manufacturers of carbonated beverages, sugary products and tobacco products face a 3% rate, while most other companies pay 1%.

Individuals with annual gross receipts exceeding Tk3 crore are also subject to a 1% minimum tax.

Exporters are required to pay 1% tax on export proceeds, while at least 32 withholding tax provisions are also treated as minimum tax, meaning taxpayers cannot reclaim excess deductions even if their final tax liability is lower.

Experts welcome proposed reform

SK Zami Chowdhury, managing partner of chartered accountancy firm Chowdhury Emdad and Company, said the proposed refund mechanism would help establish greater tax fairness.

"However, the authorities must first ensure that loopholes for tax evasion are properly addressed before implementing the refund system," he said.

Syed Md Aminul Karim said taxing businesses without income contradicts the fundamental philosophy of taxation.

"Introducing a refund system would be a positive and necessary step," he added.

Welcoming the reform initiative, Banglalink's Taimur Rahman said, "The proposed refund mechanism for unadjusted minimum tax is a positive and constructive step, which would help reduce long-term financial pressure on businesses operating in challenging market conditions."

Bangladesh Bank has introduced new rules for cashing out money from card-based mobile financial service (MFS) accounts, aiming to strengthen verification and transaction security.
Under the new rules, customers must first complete a successful transaction of up to Tk 500 using the card before linking it with an MFS account. The account can only be connected 24 hours after the transaction is completed.
The circular also said that from August 1 this year, MFS cash withdrawals through cards will be allowed only if the MFS account and the card are verified under the same ownership. Transactions involving mismatched ownership information will not be permitted.

The central bank said the changes will apply to all MFS providers and scheduled banks operating in the country.
In a circular issued by the Payment Systems Department yesterday, the central bank outlined several conditions for card-to-MFS cash withdrawal services. The instructions were sent to managing directors and chief executives of all concerned institutions.

Bangladesh Bank has also instructed service providers to introduce systems that clearly identify transactions as card-based rather than merchant payments.

At the same time, beneficiary account numbers must not remain blank during card-linked transactions.

The central bank warned that institutions failing to make the required changes by July 31 this year would not be allowed to continue offering card-to-MFS cash withdrawal services from August 1.

The circular further said that earlier instructions issued on March 27 last year regarding other transactions through MFS accounts would remain in force. All new directives will take immediate effect.

Gold prices fell on Tuesday, but ‌stayed above a 1-1/2-month low hit in the last session, as markets consolidated while awaiting further developments after US President Donald Trump paused a planned attack against Iran.

Spot gold fell ​0.5 percent to $4,544.17 per ounce by 0820 GMT.

US gold futures for June delivery ​lost 0.2 percent to $4,547.70.

Gold prices fell 2.4 percent on Friday in their biggest one-day decline since March 26 and extended losses on Monday to touch $4,479.54, the lowest ​level since March 30, as mounting inflation fears triggered a rout in the global ​bond market. Bullion recovered to close Monday slightly higher.

“It seems like an oscillation in this kind of inflation fear trade and a sort of digestion of the fireworks from Friday,” ​said Ilya Spivak, head of global macro at Tastylive, adding that markets are ​now awaiting broad sentiment markers such as the minutes of April’s FOMC meeting to be ‌released on Wednesday.

Bonds steadied following a steep selloff after Trump said on Monday he had paused a planned attack against Iran to allow for negotiations to take place on a deal to end the US-Israeli war, after Iran sent a new peace ​proposal to Washington.

Oil ​prices fell more ⁠than 2 percent, easing some inflation fears. Gold is considered a hedge against inflation, though higher interest rates tend to weigh ​on the non-yielding metal.

Kevin Warsh will be sworn in as ​Fed chair ⁠on Friday by Trump, a White House official said on Monday, putting the financier at the helm of the central bank as it grapples with intensifying inflation that ⁠may ​make it hard to push through the interest-rate ​cuts Trump desires.

India today hiked petrol and diesel prices by nearly ninety paise per litre in the second increase in fuel rates in less than a week after state-run oil firms ended a nearly four-year freeze on rate revisions.

The increase pushed petrol prices in New Delhi to Rs 98.64 per litre from Rs 97.77, while diesel rose to Rs 91.58 from Rs 90.67.

On 15 May, petrol and diesel prices were raised by Rs 3 per litre for the first time in more than four years, as surging global crude prices following the West Asia war forced state-run fuel retailers to pass on part of their mounting losses.

Fuel rates vary across Indian states due to differences in value-added tax.

Also on 15 May, compressed natural gas (CNG) prices were raised by Rs 2 per kg in cities. This was followed by a hike in CNG prices by Re 1 a kg on 17 May.

Global crude prices have surged more than 50 per cent since US-Israeli strikes on Iran on 28 February and Tehran's retaliation, disrupting flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a key artery for global oil shipments.

Despite the surge, retail fuel rates were kept frozen at two-year-old rates as part of what the Indian government said was an effort to shield consumers from higher global energy costs.

On Monday, Sujata Sharma, Joint Secretary in the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, stated that the 15 May hike had cut losses by a fourth and that oil companies were still incurring about Rs 750 crore a day in losses.

Prices have remained frozen since April 2022, except for a one-off reduction of Rs 2 a litre each on petrol and diesel in March 2024, just before Lok Sabha elections. Rates were last hiked in April 2022.

Petrol in Mumbai now costs Rs 107.59 a litre and diesel costs Rs 94.08 per litre. In Kolkata, petrol now costs Rs 109.70 per litre and diesel Rs 96.07, while in Chennai, prices increased to Rs 104.49 for petrol and Rs 96.11 for diesel.

India's retail inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose to 3.48 per cent in April this year from 3.40 per cent in March, while wholesale price inflation (WPI) surged to 8.3 per cent, a 42-month high, driven by a sharp rise in fuel and energy prices amid elevated global crude oil rates.

The benchmark indices of the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) posted a slight gain today (19 May), snapping a two-session losing streak in a modest market recovery.

The gains, however, lacked conviction. Trading activity remained subdued as investor participation stayed low, with many market players continuing to exercise caution amid a weak short-term trend. Restrained buying interest prevented any broad-based rally from taking shape.

The DSEX rose 8 points to close at 5,212. The blue-chip DS30 index added 2 points to settle at 1,970, while the Shariah-based DSES index edged up 3 points to 1,059.

Advancers outnumbered decliners — 181 issues gained against 138 that fell, with 74 stocks ending unchanged. Market turnover, however, slipped 6.89% to Tk676 crore from Tk726 crore in the previous session.

In its daily market review, EBL Securities noted that the bourse traded largely flat as investors' selectively accumulated large-cap stocks, though participation remained muted amid persistent caution over near-term market momentum. Indices held in positive territory throughout the session on resilient bargain-hunting interest.

Trading volumes were also weighed down by investors trimming leveraged positions and managing liquidity ahead of upcoming festival holidays, the brokerage added.

Market indices remained firmly in positive territory, with resilient bargain-hunting interest throughout the session.

However, trading activity stayed relatively subdued amid sustained cautious sentiment, while paring back exposure from leveraged positions and liquidity considerations ahead of upcoming festival holidays also somewhat weighed on the market's overall turnover.

On the sectoral front, Pharmaceuticals led turnover with a 16.9% share, followed by General Insurance at 13.6% and Banking at 11.4%. Among sector performances, Ceramic and Jute each rose 1.9%, and Services gained 1.3%. On the downside, Mutual Funds fell 0.8%, Food declined 0.6%, and Life Insurance dropped 0.5%.

At the Chattogram Stock Exchange (CSE), the market also closed in the green. The Selective Categories' Index (CSCX) gained 23.0 points, while the All Share Price Index (CASPI) rose 31.1 points.

British American Tobacco Bangladesh recorded a 14 percent year-on-year decline in domestic cigarette sales volume in the first quarter of FY2025-26, as tax-driven affordability pressures, downtrading, and competition from illicit cigarettes weighed on sales, according to an earnings update by BRAC EPL Stock Brokerage Ltd.

Domestic gross revenue fell 10.7 percent year-on-year, while net revenue dropped 21 percent as the total tax burden rose to 84.1 percent from 82 percent in the same quarter last year.

A modest 3.8 percent growth in unit revenue failed to offset the combined drag of lower volumes and higher taxes.

The Bangladesh Cigarette Manufacturers’ Association estimates that illicit cigarettes now account for 15 to 18 percent of the total market, posing a structural challenge for compliant manufacturers.

Non-core revenue offered little relief. Cigarette exports remained zero for the third consecutive quarter, while leaf export revenue fell 22.5 percent year-on-year due to a 27.1 percent decline in volume, partly offset by a 6.3 percent rise in unit price.

Revenue from third-party contract manufacturing -- now in its second quarter -- plunged 68 percent quarter-on-quarter, while no revenue was generated from semi-finished goods.

Gross profit fell 12 percent year-on-year to Tk 802 crore, although gross margin expanded by 707 basis points to 56 percent as cost of sales dropped 33.8 percent year-on-year, outpacing the 23.1 percent decline in total net revenue.

BATBC did not explain the margin improvement, which likely reflected price-mix benefits, input cost normalisation, and efficiency gains from consolidated production.

Operating expenses surged 40.7 percent year-on-year despite the revenue contraction, with no explanation offered. Salaries, IT costs, and technical assistance fees are the principal expense heads, according to the company’s 2025 annual report.

Net finance expenses eased to Tk 49.2 crore from Tk 53.9 crore a year earlier, mainly due to lower lease costs.

Total interest-bearing debt rose sharply to Tk 2,381 crore at the end of March from Tk 1,489 crore in December.

Operating cash outflow widened to Tk 1,226 crore from Tk 952 crore a year earlier, driven by lower profitability and inventory build-up.

Inventories climbed to Tk 5,386 crore from Tk 3,829 crore at year-end, prompting the company to increase short-term borrowing to manage operations.

The US dollar rose on Tuesday as investors balanced cautious hopes ​for a Middle East peace deal against concerns that the Federal Reserve could raise rates to curb energy-driven inflation.

US ‌President Donald Trump said on Monday there was now a “very good chance” of reaching a deal limiting Iran’s nuclear program.

The dollar jumped in March after Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz pushed oil prices higher, weighing on oil-dependent economies such as Japan and the euro area ​while increasing safe-haven demand for the greenback.

Oil prices fell 2 percent on Tuesday after Trump’s remarks.

“There are reasons why the ​dollar has not strengthened back to the levels seen in March,” Paul Mackel, global head of forex research at HSBC, said.

“Notably, global risk sentiment has recovered strongly; tension remains in USD OIS (overnight index swaps) markets which ​have stopped short of pricing an aggressive Fed hiking cycle; and monthly global growth momentum is still positive,” he added.

At the ​same time, investors are now pricing in almost a 48.5 percent chance that the Fed could raise rates in December, and a 98.8 percent chance it maintains current rates at its next meeting in June, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

“Even if the Fed moves to signal that it ​will adopt a neutral bias in June, it may not be enough to stabilize inflation expectations and long-term US Treasury yields,” ​said Thierry Wizman, Macquarie Group’s global foreign exchange and rates strategist.

“An opportunity to change the Fed’s rhetoric decidedly toward ‘hawkish’ will come with the ‌small ⁠flurry of Fed speeches, between now and June 6,” he added.

The US dollar index , which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was up 0.2 percent at 99.18, after snapping a five-day winning streak on Monday as fears eased of an escalation in the war.

Bangladesh Bank has purchased nearly $6 billion from the foreign exchange market so far in the fiscal year 2025-26, reflecting continued efforts to manage liquidity and stabilise the exchange rate.

The central bank bought $100 million from six commercial banks yesterday at a cut-off rate of Tk 122.75 per dollar. Total purchases in the current fiscal year (July to May 18) stood at $5.98 billion, according to the latest data from the central bank.

Bangladesh Bank has been buying US dollars since the beginning of this fiscal year amid improved inflows and easing pressure on the foreign exchange market.

Between FY21 and FY25, the BB sold more than $25 billion from its foreign exchange reserves to meet import payments for fuel, fertiliser and food.

However, it resumed purchasing dollars at the beginning of the current fiscal year as supply increased on the back of higher export earnings and remittance inflows.

Building foreign exchange reserves is another reason behind the central bank’s continued dollar-buying spree.

According to Bangladesh Bank calculations, gross foreign exchange reserves stood at $34.31 billion as of May 14 this year, up from $25.47 billion during the same period last year.

However, reserves reached $29.65 billion as per the IMF’s BPM6 methodology, up from $20.09 billion last year.

The interbank exchange rate was Tk 122.75 per US dollar yesterday.

Economic experts criticised the central bank’s move to buy dollars amid high inflation in Bangladesh, arguing that allowing the dollar rate to fall further could help contain inflation.

The National Board of Revenue (NBR) has missed its revenue collection target by nearly Tk104,000 crore in the first 10 months of the 2025-26 fiscal year, amid sluggish growth in tax receipts and an ambitious government target.

The shortfall is the highest on record, according to NBR officials familiar with the matter.

Experts say that although revenue collection may pick up in the final two months of the fiscal year, the government is still likely to face an overall shortfall of at least Tk1 lakh crore.

An NBR official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told The Business Standard that revenue collection in April grew by only 6.71% compared with the same month last year, well below the average monthly growth rate of around 14% recorded in previous years.

Bangladesh's economic growth set to slow to 3.9% as inflation, banking risks, investment crisis deepen
Although revenue growth remained relatively strong in the early part of the fiscal year, collection momentum weakened later, affecting the overall performance during the July-April period.

According to preliminary NBR estimates, revenue collection in the first 10 months of the fiscal year rose by 10.60% year-on-year.

Towfiqul Islam Khan, additional research director at the Centre for Policy Dialogue, told The Business Standard, "During the previous government's tenure, revenue targets were set beyond the economy's actual capacity. Combined with the current economic slowdown, this has created a major gap in revenue collection."

He said a large share of government revenue is linked to implementation of the Annual Development Programme (ADP), and slower project execution during the current fiscal year had reduced VAT and other tax collections tied to development spending.

"That is one of the reasons behind the slowdown in revenue growth," he said.

Towfiqul added that higher fuel prices and a possible rise in revenue collection during the final two months of the fiscal year could help narrow the gap slightly.

"Even then, the revenue shortfall at the end of the fiscal year could still exceed Tk100,000 crore," he said.

VAT collection falls

NBR officials said that in April, import tax and income tax collection grew by 18% and 14.66% respectively compared with the same period last year. However, VAT collection declined by 3%.

According to officials, around 55% of VAT collected by the NBR comes from ADP-related activities and public sector institutions, including electricity and gas utilities.

Syed Mushfequr Rahman, a member of the VAT implementation wing at the NBR, told TBS, "ADP implementation has slowed, which is why VAT collection is also declining."

"The information we are receiving from the field level suggests that VAT receipts from public institutions are lower than expected. We will have a clearer picture once we get the full data on which other sectors are contributing less," he added.

Challenge next fiscal

The government is preparing to set a combined revenue collection target of Tk695,000 crore from NBR and non-NBR sources in the next fiscal year.

According to CPD estimates, based on projected revenue collection in the current fiscal year, the implied growth target for next year would be around 42%.

Towfiqul described the target as unrealistic. "The highest revenue growth in Bangladesh's history was 27% in fiscal year 2007-08. The likelihood of achieving the projected growth target next fiscal year is very low," he said.

"As a result, a large revenue shortfall is likely to persist in the next fiscal year as well."

Bangladesh relies on indirect taxes far more heavily than its regional peers, raising fresh questions about the fairness of the country’s tax structure and its impact on ordinary citizens, according to a study presented yesterday.

The data, which measures indirect tax dependence as a percentage of total revenue, places Bangladesh at the top of the regional ranking. When VAT, customs duties and supplementary duties are combined, Bangladesh’s indirect tax share reaches 78.2 percent -- a staggering 28 percentage points above the regional average.

Even when calculated using VAT and customs alone, Bangladesh still stands at 65.8 percent, nearly 17 percentage points higher than India’s 48 percent.

Snehasish Barua, managing director of SMAC Advisory Services Limited, presented the comparative study at a roundtable discussion held yesterday in Dhaka on the over-reliance on indirect taxes and their multidimensional impacts on the economy. The event was organised by Voice for Reform, a citizens’ platform in Bangladesh.

By contrast, the Asia-Pacific average sits at just 40.2 percent, according to OECD 2025 data. Vietnam records 60 percent, Pakistan 58.6 percent, and Sri Lanka 64.8 percent -- all below Bangladesh’s figure.

India, often seen as a comparable developing economy, trails Bangladesh significantly, with direct taxes accounting for a far larger share of its revenue base. India’s direct tax share stands at 45 percent, while Bangladesh manages only 21 to 35 percent.

M Masrur Reaz, chairman of Policy Exchange of Bangladesh, said the country’s revenue system is overly dependent on indirect taxation, making it a major structural weakness.

He said indirect taxes are easier to collect but discourage efforts to expand the direct tax base. “As long as this dependence continues, the system will remain regressive, and inequality will persist,” he said.

Reaz added that low tax compliance is driven not only by cultural factors but also by fear of harassment and administrative burdens.

He warned that reliance on customs duties is unsustainable as Bangladesh graduates from least developed country status, noting tariffs still account for 27 to 28 percent of revenue.

“If we had gradually shifted toward direct taxation, we could have used fiscal policy more effectively to address inflationary pressures and rising inequality,” he said.

He said that in the current challenging context, spending Tk 35,000 crore on a new government pay scale would be the wrong decision.

Imran Hassan, secretary general of the Bangladesh Restaurant Owners Association, said current tax assessment methods are ineffective and require full system integration. “All businesses must be brought under the VAT net,” he said, proposing that tax collection be integrated with VAT payments.

He alleged resistance from authorities, arguing that meaningful system reform would reduce opportunities for informal pressure on businesses.

Md Farid Uddin, former member of the National Board of Revenue, said the VAT rate should under no circumstances exceed 10 percent.

The tax reform task force formed during the interim government had also proposed a maximum VAT rate of 10 percent, though several of its other recommendations have since gone unaddressed, he noted.

Rushad Faridi, assistant professor of the Department of Economics at the University of Dhaka, warned that excessive reliance on indirect taxation creates instability in budget execution, as revenues become highly dependent on consumption and overall economic conditions.

“If the economy slows down, fiscal pressure builds up immediately, forcing cuts in essential spending or increased borrowing,” he said, adding that direct taxation provides a more stable fiscal framework.

He also said indirect taxes create a “fiscal illusion,” where people do not fully realise their tax burden, reducing public pressure for government accountability.

Prof M Abu Eusuf, executive director of RAPID, said Bangladesh’s main challenge is not a lack of reform ideas but weak enforcement.

“We all know the problems and solutions. Reform strategies already exist, but without enforcement and a strong commitment, nothing will change,” he said.

Faisal Mahmud, managing editor of The Daily Waadaa, said India’s experience with Goods and Services Tax (GST) and the Unified Payments Interface (UPI) shows how a digitalised economy can strengthen tax administration and expand formalisation.

He urged policymakers to study India’s GST system more closely, saying it offers important lessons for improving Bangladesh’s tax and revenue framework.

AKM Fahim Mashroor, Co-coordinator of Voice for Reform, who moderated the event, proposed setting the standard VAT rate at 7.5 percent while introducing a rate exceeding 25 percent on luxury goods.

Among others, Saeed Ahmed Khan, former head of tax at Unilever Bangladesh, Abdur Rauf, founding president of the VAT Forum, and Doulot Akter Mala, president of the Economic Reporters Forum, also spoke at the event.

The upcoming FY27 budget will be a “litmus test” for the newly elected government, experts warned yesterday, as it faces mounting pressure to balance reforms, debt obligations and political promises within the tightest fiscal space in recent memory.

There is little room to manoeuvre for policymakers as they face weak revenue mobilisation, an underperforming ADP, rising debt costs and unaddressed corruption, they said at a pre-budget dialogue organised by Citizen’s Platform for SDGs at the Lakeshore Hotel in Dhaka.

Google News LinkFor all latest news, follow The Daily Star's Google News channel.
Towfiqul Islam Khan, additional director (research) of the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), said while presenting the keynote paper that the budget would be shaped by a series of difficult trade-offs.

“The first budget of the newly elected government faces dual pressures of balancing economic stability and reforms while meeting political demands to deliver quickly and prove legitimacy, all within the tightest fiscal space in recent memory,” he said.

Public financial management faces challenges on multiple fronts, he said, including streamlining tax expenditures, protecting investment, advancing reforms, managing subsidies for the marginalised, and addressing the ADP (annual development programme) backlog.

Khan noted that the National Board of Revenue’s tax-to-GDP ratio fell to the lowest in years at 6.6 percent in FY25. The country “forgoes roughly as much as it collects” through exemptions and tax expenditures.

The government’s planned Tk 6.95 lakh crore revenue target for the upcoming fiscal year would require at least a 42 percent jump in collection compared to the current fiscal year, according to Khan. The FY26 shortfall alone is expected to reach Tk 1 lakh crore.

“A Plan B will be required if revenue mobilisation does not keep pace,” he said, raising the question of where the government would cut if the gap proved too wide.

Mustafizur Rahman, CPD distinguished fellow, said a major component of the “litmus test” is whether the government can ensure redistribution of resources through the budget.

According to him, the core issue was not revenue volume but reducing the gap between what taxpayers pay and what the government actually receives.

“That gap is corruption,” he said. “If we can bring this to zero, many of our other tasks will become much easier.”

The CPD fellow also warned of a deepening debt risk. Bangladesh’s borrowing is becoming increasingly non-concessional, yet the entire development programme still depends on loans.

“Interest and principal repayments are increasing gradually. This is creating a huge risk,” he said.

Debapriya Bhattacharya, noted economist and a distinguished fellow at CPD, criticised the government for not producing “a documented assessment of the economy” it inherited.

He said, “This government is focusing more on the outward aspects of political commitments such as Family Card, Farmers Card, canal excavation, and so on.

“But the core issue of the economy is maintaining macroeconomic stability, the biggest expression of which is controlling inflation, reducing interest rates and at the same time keeping the exchange rate stable.”

These issues, which are directly linked to people’s livelihoods, are not receiving sufficient attention, he said.

Debapriya said they suggested the government adopt a policy of “tough love” by preparing a budget that is consistent with reality.

Instead, he warned, the government is repeating the pattern of its predecessors and is risking passing a conventional budget similar to that of the interim government.

“You are increasing the ADP by another 20 percent even though 40 to 50 percent of the previous ADP could not be implemented. At the same time, you did not clean up the mess within those 1,500 projects,” he said. “You are simply reproducing the old situation in a new form.”

AK Enamul Haque, director general of Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies, said a portion of every budget usually remains unimplemented, and therefore, the efficiency level must be improved. He also stressed reducing land dependency in development projects.

“One reason many government projects are delayed is the huge amount of land demanded for project implementation. In a land-scarce country like ours, the land dependency of projects must be reduced,” he said.

Sharmind Neelormi, a professor of economics at Jahangirnagar University, suggested introducing a programme to ease tax-related fears among the nearly 82 percent of TIN holders who currently do not pay taxes.

She proposed engaging students from public and private universities in awareness programmes in exchange for an honorarium so that they could help TIN holders.

She also suggested allowing people with incomes below a certain threshold to submit “zero returns” for three years in order to build the habit of filing tax returns.

Mahmuda Habiba, a lawmaker from the Bangladesh Nationalist Party for a reserved women’s seat in the 13th National Parliament, said this year’s budget is “more of a crisis-management and stabilisation budget.”

Zahid Hossain, minister for women and children affairs and social welfare, said the government is focusing on making the country humanitarian and inclusive.

“But it may not happen overnight,” he said, urging all to work together.

The new BNP-led government has decided to spend Tk 3.09 lakh crore on development programmes in FY2026-27, the largest single-year increase in eight years, signalling a sharp break from the austerity-driven approach of the interim administration.

The allocation for the Annual Development Programme (ADP) is up 30 percent from the current year, which Finance and Planning Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury said reflects a five-year strategic framework for reform and development.

The minister acknowledged the massive expansion, but said the government is betting that political legitimacy and stronger institutional capacity will improve delivery.

“We have assumed that the elected government will have greater capability and implementation efficiency,” he said after the National Economic Council approved the plan yesterday, chaired by Prime Minister Tarique Rahman.

Bangladesh spent only 36.16 percent of its ADP in the July–March period of FY26, the lowest five-year rate both in percentage and absolute terms, even after the outgoing interim government slashed the plan by 14 percent, the steepest cut in recent memory, to contain inflation and shore up weak revenues.

According to the planning ministry, of the total allocation for FY27, government financing would be Tk 1.99 lakh crore, while the rest is expected to come from project loans and grants.

TRANSPORT, EDUCATION, HEALTH LEAD

The new government is eyeing the most development in the transport and communication sectors, which has been given 16.7 percent of the total ADP fund.

Education has also been given high priority. The sector will get 15.86 percent of the total development fund, while the health sector’s allocation stands at 11.84 percent.

Allocation and implementation of the ADP in the two major sectors remained almost stagnant at low levels in recent years. The new development spending plan for the education and health sectors is nearly double the original budget allocation for FY26.

The allocation falls in line with the government’s pledges. It has set a goal of gradually raising public healthcare spending to five percent of the gross domestic product (GDP) – the total value of all final goods and services produced within a country. It also announced plans to implement massive reforms in the education sector.

The Planning Commission said preferential allocations have been provided to the education, health and agriculture sectors to support discrimination-free socio-economic development.

“Special importance has been given to expanding quality and technology-based education, building skilled human resources, ensuring modern healthcare, empowering women, expanding social security, and promoting agricultural and environment-friendly development,” said the commission in a summary presented at the meeting.

“Simultaneously, initiatives have been undertaken to tackle the Fourth Industrial Revolution, advance technology-based industrialisation and ensure sustainable development,” it added.

The energy and power sector got the fourth-highest allocation of 10.9 percent of the total ADP. Bangladesh is facing growing pressure of energy bills, recently further compounded by additional costs during fuel supply disruptions caused by the US-Israeli war on Iran. The government also announced plans to push towards renewables.

Another major allocation goes to social development assistance, under which the government has started providing Family Cards, Farmers Cards and allowances for mosque imams and other religious leaders.

In line with that plan, the government expects to spend Tk 17,000 crore on social development assistance, with Family Cards alone accounting for Tk 14,500 crore. That programme was a central election pledge.

STRATEGIC FRAMING

The BNP-led government, which has come to power after 19 years, has taken up 1,277 new projects recommended by various ministries and departments. An additional 80 projects have been proposed under public-private partnership (PPP) arrangements and 148 under the Bangladesh Climate Change Trust Fund.

The plan has been made in line with the ruling party’s election manifesto and its five pillars: social development, economic restructuring, and balanced regional development among them.

“The context is very clear — a journey towards prosperity from a fragile economy. We are moving forward with strategies for recovery, transition and reconstruction,” Khosru said.

He said it reflects a “new perspective” in Bangladesh’s development planning.

“It is not only about infrastructural development; rather, it is an integrated outline for state reform, building a discrimination-free society, a sustainable economy and establishing regional balance,” said the minister.

THE IMPLEMENTATION QUESTION

The government’s ambitions, however, face a credibility problem as the gap between announced and actual spending has become a structural feature of Bangladesh’s development planning, not an aberration.

Debapriya Bhattacharya, convenor of Citizen’s Platform for SDGs, Bangladesh, raised that concern directly at a dialogue ahead of the NEC meeting.

Khosru acknowledged the record but framed ambition as a precondition for recovery.

“Without investment, growth, employment or development is not possible,” he said. “We want every project to ensure value for money. There must be returns on investment, and employment must be generated. We do not want jobless growth. Climate issues must also be taken into consideration.”

He also said in the past there were various questions, corruption allegations and concerns over inefficiency regarding the appointment of project directors. “From now on, there will be specific criteria for appointing PDs. Those who meet the criteria will be appointed.”

Bangladesh Bank (BB) has directed all banks to keep their branches and sub-branches open on May 23 and 24 ahead of Eid-ul-Azha to facilitate financial transactions and salary payments for garment workers.

The central bank issued a circular in this regard, stating that all bank branches across the country will remain open during regular banking hours on the upcoming Saturday and Sunday.

Banks, however, will remain closed from May 25 to May 31 for the Eid holidays.

The directive follows a government notification regarding the upcoming Eid-ul-Azha holidays.

To ensure smooth payment of wages, bonuses, and other allowances for workers in the garment sector, BB instructed commercial bank branches in Dhaka, Ashulia, Tongi, Gazipur, Savar, Bhaluka, Narayanganj, and Chattogram to continue limited banking operations on May 25 and 26.

According to the circular, these branches will operate from 10am to 3pm, while customer transactions will be allowed from 10am to 1pm.

The central bank also said bank branches, sub-branches, and booths located in seaport, land port, and airport areas must continue limited operations during the Eid holidays, except on Eid day itself, to support import and export activities.

Officials and employees assigned duty during the holidays will receive allowances in accordance with existing rules, the circular added.

Meanwhile, the National Board of Revenue (NBR) has also instructed all customs houses and stations to keep import and export operations running on a limited scale during the Eid holidays.

According to a separate circular issued yesterday, the directive will remain in effect during public and weekly holidays from May 25 to May 31, excluding the day of Eid.

The revenue authority has urged relevant officials to take necessary measures to ensure uninterrupted external trade during the festive period.

Government's highest economic-policy body Monday endorsed an ambitious Tk3.0-trillion annual development programme (ADP) for the upcoming fiscal year with nearly one-third of the money earmarked as block allocations.

Economists forewarn that such huge block allocations could create room for misuse of the public funds and undertaking "politically motivated" projects, but the finance minister says ADP structured on well-defined strategic parameter.

The ADP outlay for fiscal 2026-27 is 30.43-percent higher than the Tk 2.30-trillion original ADP outlay and 50-percent higher than the Tk 2.0 trillion revised one of the outgoing FY2026.

Of the new development-budget outlay, the government has kept aside Tk 973.04 billion as block allocations.

The National Economic Council (NEC) approved the massive ADP for the upcoming FY2026-27 taking implementation challenge after a massive blow in the current fiscal.

Till March this fiscal, the government agencies had executed only 35.57 per cent of the Tk 2.0- trillion RADP.

The NEC in a meeting held at the Planning Commission in Dhaka with NEC Chairperson and Prime Minister Tarique Rahman in the chair gave the seal of approval.Maps

Briefing reporters following the meeting, Finance and Planning Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury said out of the total Tk 3.0 trillion worth of ADP outlay, the government will finance Tk 1.90 trillion from its domestic resources, while the remaining Tk 1.10 trillion will be sourced through foreign loans and project grants.

"This ambitious development roadmap marks an approximate 50-percent increase from the revised ADP of the current fiscal year, signaling government's intent to ramp up public investment and enhance macroeconomic implementation capacity," he adds.

To a question, the Finance and Planning Minister said, "If we want to reap benefit of our continuous 'population dividend', we have no way but to enhance investment in the education and health sectors for human-capital development.

"Besides, we need more private investment from home and abroad which would be attracted through improving our infrastructure."

The minister explains that the ADP is structured around five key pillars derived from the country's proposed Five-Year Strategic Framework for Reform and Development

The framework transitions Bangladesh from an infrastructure-only model toward a balanced, inclusive framework, he adds.

The five key pillars include state system reforms focusing on digitisation and the efficiency of law enforcement, inclusive socioeconomic development giving maximum precedence to education, healthcare, and social security.

Besides, Khosru says, economic restructuring, securing energy grids and investing in renewable energy, regional balanced development by improving logistics hubs and coastal infrastructure and socio-cultural cohesion with enhanced social harmony and cultural welfare have also been given focus in the newly formed ADP.

In a departure from traditional infrastructure-heavy development blueprints, the newly approved ADP prioritizes social protection, agricultural assistance, and human-resource development.Personal finance tools

"This shift aligns closely with the government's electoral promises to insulate low-income households from inflationary pressures."

To facilitate new social protection schemes and welfare initiatives, the government allocated a record Tk 170 billion for the social safety-net programmes, including "Family Card", "Farmer Card", and "honorarium" to the religious leaders within the development framework.

In the new ADP, the government allocated Tk 1.789 trillion for investment and study projects, Tk 27.96 billion for technical-assistance projects, Tk 39.85 billion for "development fund", Tk 592.76 billion block allocations for different ministries and divisions, Tk 380.274 billion block allocations for Programming Division of the Planning Commission and Tk 170 billion for the social safety-net programmes.

The total number of projects in the upcoming ADP is 1,150 wherein 983 are investment projects, 23 for feasibility study, 109 TA and 45 self-funding.

Former World Bank Lead Economist in Dhaka office Dr Zahid Hussain says since the ministries could apply discretionary powers for getting the funds from the massive block allocations, it could create a room for misuse of the public funds and taking "politically motivated" projects.

"In another way, since the funds are not specified yet for any specific projects, the government could be able to cut the ADP size at the end of the fiscal if agencies fail to implement those fully or if the revenue generation becomes low like in the previous years," he told the FE.

The NEC also approved a Tk 89.248 billion worth of development budget for the autonomous and semi-autonomous government bodies.

Planning Commission officials say those funds will ensure flexible financing for flagship initiatives, such as the expanded "Family Card" and "Farmer Card" programmes, alongside targeted social-development assistance.

While social-safety initiatives heavily influence the budgetary philosophy, the transport and communications sector retains the highest traditional sectoral funding at Tk 500.92 billion or 16.7 per cent of the total ADP.

The education sector follows closely with Tk 475.91 billion, while healthcare is set to receive Tk 355.35 billion and the power and energy sector has been allocated Tk 326.91 billion.Bangladesh trade analysis

Among ministries and divisions, Local Government Division has been accorded the largest individual share, totalling Tk 337.35 billion.

Addressing longstanding implementation challenges, the NEC has directed all ministries and divisions to strictly prioritize projects that are scheduled to be completed by June 2027.

The Planning Ministry emphasizes that stricter oversight mechanisms and new criteria for appointing project directors will be deployed to optimize fiscal discipline and curb discretionary spending during the upcoming fiscal year.

The US dollar-dominated global oil trading system is being tested by the Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, as governments in major consuming nations turn to increasingly opaque deals with Tehran and Gulf producers to secure supplies.

Since the outbreak of the war on February 28, roughly a fifth of global oil supplies from the Gulf ​have been disrupted, dealing a tough blow to economies, particularly in Asia, which depends on the Middle East for about 60 percent of its imports.

With the Hormuz blockade now in its 13th week, ‌there are growing signs that major Asian importers are adapting to the new reality by striking direct arrangements with Gulf producers, often with Tehran’s consent, to allow vital flows of crude, chemicals and fertilizer through the Strait.

In recent days, several oil tankers have crossed Hormuz, frequently sailing with their tracking systems switched off to avoid detection, following direct contacts between leaders in the purchasing countries and Iran.

Last week, a Panama-flagged tanker carrying 2 million barrels of Kuwaiti and Emirati crude passed through the Strait en route to Japan following discussions between ​Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. Iran has also struck arrangements with China, Iraq and Pakistan to move oil and liquefied natural gas out of the Gulf.

The precise structure of these bilateral and ​trilateral deals remains largely opaque. But it is highly likely that many are being settled outside the traditional oil trading system, either through currencies other than the US dollar or through informal barter arrangements.

Regardless of whether these trades include explicit transit fees to Tehran - something Tokyo has denied - the pattern reinforces Iran’s de facto control over traffic through the critical waterway.

Iran seeks to enshrine ​this influence in any future settlement with Washington, a demand President Donald Trump has firmly rejected.

However the standoff is ultimately resolved, the current disruption is likely to leave a lasting imprint on oil trade patterns.

PERMANENT RISK

Crossing Hormuz is now likely ​to carry a persistent geopolitical risk premium. That will embed higher costs into Middle East crude, forcing importers to rethink supply security.

In turn, that may encourage more direct, government-backed deals with regional producers to clinch supplies, create pricing mechanisms that insulate buyers from volatility and help secure transit through Hormuz.

Signs of that shift are already emerging. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited the United Arab Emirates on Friday to discuss long-term supply agreements and expand strategic storage. The timing of the trip – in the middle of a regional war – ​underscores the urgency of New Delhi’s situation and may signal a broader turn toward bilateral energy diplomacy across Asia.

“In the current circumstances, there is every reason to expect China, India, Japan, South Korea, and other import-dependent countries ​to extend the network of bilateral relationships they already have with Gulf states - including a post-war regime in Iran - and with other oil and gas exporters around the world,” consultancy Dragoman said in a note on Friday.

PETRODOLLAR UNDER THREAT

These evolving trade ‌patterns add to the slow erosion of the dollar’s dominance in global oil trade.

Modi’s talks in Abu Dhabi followed a 2023 agreement between India and the UAE to settle bilateral trade in rupees and dirhams rather than dollars, part of a broader push by emerging economies to diversify their payment systems.

Today’s oil trading architecture was designed in the 1970s and 1980s to avoid such fragmentation. The creation of crude futures markets in New York and London brought transparency and liquidity to a system previously dominated by producer-set prices.

Crucially, it also entrenched the US dollar as the system’s core currency.

The dominance of the “petrodollar” gave Washington unparalleled leverage over global finance, enabling it to impose sanctions that effectively exclude countries, companies and ​individuals from the international trading system.

Over recent decades, the US has dramatically ​expanded the use of sanctions, targeting countries such as Iran, Venezuela, Russia and China in pursuit of geopolitical and economic objectives. Those measures drove the development of a vast oil trading network that bypassed the dollar and Western shipping.

The risk of falling foul of US sanctions prompted major emerging economies to explore alternative trading mechanisms. So far, those efforts have had only limited success: even today, just 10 percent ​to 20 percent of global oil trade is estimated to occur in non-dollar currencies.

But the shock of the Iran war and the partial shutdown of one of ​the world’s most important energy arteries, which has forced buyers to rethink their energy security strategies, could accelerate that shift.

With Asia accounting for over a third of global oil consumption and more than half of global imports, any move toward bilateral, state-driven trading relationships in this region would push the market toward a much more fragmented global energy trading system.

To be sure, the Middle East supply disruption has also reinforced the US as the world’s premier oil and gas producer, and Washington is likely to remain dominant in the global economy for decades to come. No single currency ​is expected to take the dollar’s place.

But the fallout from the Iran war could nevertheless lead to the fragmentation of oil pricing, ​reducing transparency and weakening Washington’s grip over the financial architecture that has underpinned the global oil trade for decades.