China's economy picked up speed early in 2026, riding an export surge before the Iran war sent energy costs soaring and put global demand - vital to Beijing's growth ambitions - at risk.

The 5.0% year-on-year pace in the first quarter sits at the top of China's full-year target range of 4.5%-5.0%, highlighting a resilience that sets it apart from much of Asia, helped by ample strategic oil reserves and a diversified energy mix.

Yet the Middle East conflict lays bare a core vulnerability: an export-led growth model that delivers annual trade surpluses the size of the Dutch economy depends on open sea lanes - for China and for the customers it sells to.

And as the world's biggest energy importer and manufacturing powerhouse, soaring oil prices threaten to drive up production costs and squeeze already thin margins at factories that employ hundreds of millions of people. The longer the conflict drags on, the higher the risks, and the pressure is already mounting.

Peng Xin, general manager of Guangdong Rongsu New Materials, which buys petrochemical feedstock from refineries and turns it into plastic pellets for injection-moulding factories, says prices for two types of nylon spiked roughly 40%-60%.

Peng is passing the increases on, while some of his customers rush to place orders and stockpile before costs climb further.

"The current coping method is to negotiate the price for every single order. If you accept my price, we cooperate. Otherwise, there's nothing we can do," he said.

"The entire industry chain is under pressure."

Imbalances expose China to global demand risks

The first-quarter GDP growth beat forecasts of 4.8% and October-December's three-year low of 4.5%, which a statistics bureau official described as a "rare and commendable" achievement, while warning of a "complex and volatile" external environment.

But the trade data for March earlier this week pointed to strains. Exports grew just 2.5% last month, slowing sharply from 21.8% in January–February.

And while factory-gate prices rose out of deflation in March for the first time in more than three years, analysts warn "bad inflation" driven by input costs could be even worse for growth.

"The solid start to the year on the back of strong export performance suggests the direct impact of the Middle East conflict remains contained for now," said Junyu Tan, North Asia economist at Coface.

"But the outlook is not all rosy despite China's relative resilience," Tan added. "The export engine could still be constrained by weaker global demand if the conflict persists."

And the economy remains imbalanced, with consumers unlikely to pick up the slack if exports falter.

Retail sales, a gauge of consumption, grew 1.7% last month, down from 2.8% in January-February, and - as has been the norm in recent years - underperformed industrial output, which rose 5.7% in March versus 6.3% in the first two months.

Lending data earlier this week also showed sluggish credit demand from households and businesses.

Breaking China's protracted property slump will be critical to reviving consumption, but fresh data showing new home prices still falling suggest further pain for the country's embattled developers.

"On one hand you see resilience - the Iran war's impact on China is very limited. On the other hand you see imbalance - a strong export sector versus modest domestic demand," said Tianchen Xu, senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit.

Beijing to ramp up stimulus if exports slow

Analysts do not expect the central bank to ease policy significantly, but say Beijing could deploy more fiscal firepower if the target comes under threat, adding to a debt burden more than three times the size of the economy.

Fiscal expenditure rose 3.6% in January–February, picking up from a 1% increase in 2025.

"The net exports' contribution to Chinese growth could turn negative in the second quarter," said Dan Wang, China director at Eurasia Group.

"If that happens, then the domestic infrastructure spending and fiscal spending will step up in order to bridge the gap."

There is one silver lining for China, however. Cut off from the West after invading Ukraine, Russia now supplies it with discounted oil and gas. Heavy use of coal, rapid expansion of renewables and a growing electric vehicle fleet further shield China from energy shocks.

As the Iran crisis jolts markets, Chinese manufacturers may emerge in better shape than rivals in Europe and elsewhere, where production costs rise even faster.

"In a cost-push inflation cycle, firms normally cannot fully pass on the cost increase to consumers, and this will hit their profit margin," said EIU's Xu.

"That said, Chinese manufacturers still enjoy lower production costs relative to peers in other countries. That will help to preserve, if not increase, their global market share."

The Gulf energy crisis isn’t over. Ever since the United States and Israel launched joint strikes on Iran, regional tumult has throttled worldwide oil and gas supplies. On Friday, Iranian Foreign ​Minister Abbas Araqchi declared the opening of the key Strait of Hormuz chokepoint, through which a fifth of global oil and ‌gas shipments typically transit daily — part of a 10-day ceasefire that now encompasses hostilities in Lebanon. The question is whether investors are right in their apparent sense that the acute phase of the impasse is giving way to a longer-term chronic period, or whether energy prices are going to snap back up again.

For now, the mood is ​one of relief. Brent futures plummeted below $90 a barrel on Friday morning, having neared $120 late last month. In Europe, where gas storage ​levels are near the lowest they’ve been since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, May futures priced off the Dutch TTF benchmark collapsed to under 39 euros per megawatt-hour, from a mid-March high above 60 euros per MWh.

The reaction is understandable. Morgan Stanley analysts envisioned ​prices rising to perhaps $150 per barrel if the situation escalated. Already, at the recent level of $110 a barrel, the bank predicted that Asian GDP growth ​would fall from 5 percent to 4.2 percent this year. The International Monetary Fund similarly cut its forecast for global economic activity. The initial policy response sought to stem the worst effects. Price caps in Asia helped hold domestic fuel-price rises to only 16 percent, adjusting for purchasing power, well below a 53 percent increase in oil prices in local currencies, Morgan ​Stanley reckons. Though presented in broader terms, the UK government has said it will eliminate a carbon tax on natural gas generation.

Any sense of ​normalization needs to be qualified. As Gulf oil and gas storage filled, producers with nowhere to shift their product have shuttered output. War-ravaged infrastructure must be rebuilt. Ships take ‌time to reach port, with full resumption of traffic maybe months away.

A return to that daily norm of 100-plus ships is also far from guaranteed. President Trump’s promise to continue blockading Iran remains. And Araqchi noted that tankers must still coordinate with Iranian authorities: whether this means the country will continue extracting tolls for safe passage is unclear. Fresh costs or risks of re-erupting conflict could lead to a perhaps $10 per barrel oil price premium, experts previously told ​Breakingviews.

If the crisis is in its ​chronic phase, there are other implications. Any deal between Iran and the US to curb Tehran’s nuclear enrichment may not last — after all, the one struck a decade ago by President Barack Obama didn’t. Other consequences abound: Japan is seeking to restart nuclear reactors; ​China raised its target for renewable energy. Consumers too, will respond, judging by reports of frenzied electric-vehicle buying.

Brent prices ​are still meaningfully higher than their pre-conflict low-$70s a barrel in late February. Even still, they could prove to be too low. In a post on social media network X, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on April 17 that “passage for all commercial vessels” through the Strait of Hormuz is “declared completely open for the ​remaining period” of a ceasefire that has now extended to Lebanon.

In a subsequent post ​on Truth Social, US President Donald Trump also said that the Strait is “completely open,” but added that a “naval blockade” will remain in place “as it pertains to Iran,” until “our transaction” is complete. ​US and Iranian negotiators are working towards a peace plan, Axios reported.

Bangladesh’s garment sector is going through a period of sustained pressure as the war in the Middle East disrupts production and international retailers scale back orders.

Western retailers are expected to cut apparel orders by up to 10 percent next season, as higher clothing prices dampen demand and unsold stock piles up in stores.

The latest setback is another blow for local manufacturers, who are already dealing with frequent load shedding, rising transport costs and a deepening fuel crunch following the US-Israel war on Iran.

Exporters say the war has already driven up raw material import bills and freight charges for shipments abroad.

The readymade garment sector, which accounts for more than 80 percent of national export earnings, had only just begun to steady itself after reciprocal tariff turbulence.

But now, conditions are combining to create a perfect storm for the readymade garment sector. Many fear the combined effect could lead to a decline in future orders.

Preferring anonymity, a senior official of a leading European buyer said that overall, 8 percent to 10 percent of garment work orders will be cut for the next season as buyers begin placing orders.

He said retailers and brands across the West are still burdened with unsold winter merchandise, while goods for the current season have already arrived. As a result, orders for the next cycle have slowed.

Amid the fuel crisis, the official said freight costs inside Bangladesh have also climbed. The fare of goods-laden trucks plying between Dhaka and Chattogram has risen, despite no official increase in petroleum prices.

Truck operators, citing fuel rationing, have raised per-truck charges to Tk 50,000 from Tk 38,000. On average, he said fares have increased by around 20 percent since the outbreak of the war.

Moreover, factories that depend on diesel generators are facing mounting disruption. Many report delays in getting adequate supplies, while cotton prices have risen, pushing yarn costs up by 17 percent to 18 percent.

“But buyers are reluctant to absorb higher prices,” said the official. “The consumers will not pay higher prices during the bad times because of an increase in the cost of production. So, at the end of the year, the overall export growth in the garment sector may be much lower than last year.”

Another European buyer, also requesting anonymity, said that the war has slowed down the business and the recovery is still very uncertain.

He added that demand for outerwear in Europe could rise next season as higher energy prices prompt consumers to buy warmer clothing. However, inventories are still elevated.

Ramzul Seraj, managing director of Elite Garments Ltd, which exports to the United States, said demand for garment items in the US has weakened, while factory output in Bangladesh has been hit by diesel shortages.

Delays in production could force some exporters to use more expensive air shipments to meet delivery deadlines, he added.

Masud Kabir, managing director of Motex Fashion, a Gazipur-based sweater factory, said he receives diesel using a special card introduced by the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA). But the supply falls short of covering nearly eight hours of load-shedding.

He can run the factory with the diesel collected from a nearby petrol pump for three and a half hours, he said. As a result, production has suffered.

Anwar Ul Alam Chowdhury, chairman of Evince Group, said the government is supplying diesel, but factories require larger volumes to operate generators smoothly.

Md Fazlul Hoque, managing director of Plummy Fashions, said inadequate diesel supplies have also disrupted his operations. At the same time, freight charges for sea shipments have increased, along with prices of cotton, yarn and polyester.

The combined effect, Hoque said, is a likely decline in future orders.

Mohammad Hatem, president of the Bangladesh Knitwear Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BKMEA), said some competing countries such as Turkey are expanding exports despite the war, helped by their proximity to Europe and the United States and more reliable energy supplies.

He also expressed concern that recurring two-to-three-hour power cuts could lead to greater reliance on costly air freight.

BGMEA Director Faisal Samad said the association is in contact with buyers, urging them to take into account the exceptional circumstances created by the global oil crisis. Since April 13, member factories have been able to access diesel on a priority basis through a special card facility.

“Even so, overall productivity has declined because of insufficient fuel supplies,” he said.

BGMEA President Mahmud Hasan Khan said buyers also want factories to keep running as this is a global crisis.

The DSE Brokers Association of Bangladesh (DBA) has teamed up with the Japan Securities Dealers Association (JSDA) to foster sustainable development, enhance efficiency, and strengthen international cooperation in Bangladesh’s capital market.

Takashi Hibino, chairman and CEO of JSDA, and Saiful Islam, president of DBA, signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) on April 9, according to a press release issued by the DBA today.

Under the agreement, the two organisations will collaborate in several key areas to support the development of the securities market, including the exchange of laws and regulations related to financial investment businesses and capital markets.

They will also work on developing governance frameworks, policy-making processes, and operational practices of self-regulatory organisations; strengthening supervision and compliance mechanisms; enhancing efficient financial transaction systems; fostering innovation in investment instruments and services; and expanding investor education programmes.

Additionally, both organisations will extend cooperation and consultation on other areas of mutual interest as needed.

Commenting on the agreement, the DBA president said the deal represents a significant advancement for Bangladesh’s capital market.

Partnering with a well-established and experienced self-regulatory organisation like JSDA will play a crucial role in strengthening market structure, governance, and institutional capacity, he said.

“We believe this collaboration will facilitate the exchange of global best practices and contribute to making our capital market more modern, transparent, and investor-friendly.”

Islam expressed optimism that the MoU would help build a more organised, dynamic, and internationally aligned capital market in Bangladesh, benefiting all market participants.

The DSE Brokers Association of Bangladesh (DBA) has signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the Japan Securities Dealers Association (JSDA) to enhance cooperation and support the sustainable development of Bangladesh's capital market.

The agreement, signed virtually on Thursday (16 April), aims to improve market efficiency, strengthen governance, and promote international collaboration.

The DBA represents brokerage firms operating under the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE), while JSDA functions as a self-regulatory organisation (SRO) and a key representative of Japan's securities industry.

According to its website, JSDA has around 500 member institutions, including securities firms, banks, and other financial entities.

The MoU was signed by Takashi Hibino, chairman and CEO of JSDA, and Saiful Islam, president of DBA, on behalf of their respective organisations.

In a press release, DBA said this is its first formal agreement with an international SRO, marking a significant milestone for the association.

Under the agreement, the two organisations will collaborate across several key areas, including the exchange of laws and regulations related to financial investment and capital markets, development of governance frameworks, policy-making processes, and operational practices of SROs.

The partnership will also focus on strengthening supervision and compliance mechanisms, enhancing financial transaction systems, promoting innovation in investment instruments and services, and expanding investor education programmes. Both sides will extend cooperation in other areas of mutual interest as needed.

Commenting on the development, Saiful Islam said the MoU represents a major step forward for Bangladesh's capital market.

"Partnering with a well-established and experienced self-regulatory organisation like JSDA will play a crucial role in strengthening our market structure, governance, and institutional capacity," he said.

He added that the collaboration would facilitate the exchange of global best practices and help make the country's capital market more modern, transparent, and investor-friendly.

Saiful Islam also expressed optimism that the agreement would contribute to building a more organised, dynamic, and internationally aligned capital market, benefiting all stakeholders.

Bangladesh’s liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) sector has grown rapidly, yet lacks the storage capacity to buffer itself against global market shocks, according to the president of the LPG Operators Association of Bangladesh (LOAB).

“Expanding storage capacity is essential for improving supply security,” Mohammed Amirul Haque said in an interview with The Daily Star recently. “If operators can store larger volumes, they can better manage fluctuations in global supply and price movements.”

According to industry estimates, Bangladesh currently consumes around 17-18 lakh tonnes of LPG annually. Around 80 percent of this demand comes from households, mainly for cooking in areas where natural gas through pipeline is unavailable. Industrial, commercial, and autogas use together account for the remaining share.

Haque, also the managing director of Delta LPG Limited, said the country’s transition toward LPG took place over the last decade after the government decided to permanently halt new pipeline gas connections to households in order to manage limited domestic gas reserves.

He, however, pointed out that the industry’s dependence on imports means that the entire supply chain, from procurement to pricing, remains highly sensitive to global market conditions.

“Geopolitical tensions, disruptions in shipping routes, or volatility in international benchmark prices can directly affect supply costs and domestic pricing,” he said.

Most LPG used in Bangladesh is sourced from the Middle East, with prices typically linked to the Saudi Aramco Contract Price, which serves as a reference point for global LPG trade. Changes in that benchmark are quickly transmitted to the domestic market, leaving consumers exposed to international volatility.

“Any disruption in the international supply chain can affect Bangladesh’s LPG market because we do not have significant domestic production,” Haque said. “Even freight costs and insurance premiums can change depending on geopolitical developments, which ultimately affects the landed cost of LPG.”

Disruptions along major shipping corridors such as the Strait of Hormuz or the Red Sea can have immediate repercussions on global LPG trade flows.

When global shipping rates rise, the additional cost is reflected in the final price of LPG in the domestic market.

Haque argued that the country’s growing LPG demand has intensified the need for stronger storage and distribution infrastructure. Currently, most operators rely on coastal storage terminals and bottling plants to distribute LPG cylinders across the country.

“Expanding storage capacity is essential for improving supply security,” he said. “If operators can store larger volumes, they can better manage fluctuations in global supply and price movements.”

Without sufficient storage, the market remains more vulnerable to sudden price spikes or supply delays, he added.

Diversifying import sources is another important strategy for reducing supply risk, the LOAB president also said, noting that Bangladesh relies heavily on a relatively small number of international suppliers.

By broadening procurement sources and strengthening supply agreements with multiple exporting countries, the industry could reduce its exposure to regional disruptions, he said.

Haque also called for infrastructure improvements at ports and terminals to support the continued expansion of the sector, noting that such logistical bottlenecks can slow shipment movement and increase costs.

Domestically, he said, private sector investment has played a major role in expanding LPG infrastructure across Bangladesh. Over the past decade, operators have invested heavily in bottling plants, storage facilities and distribution networks to support the growing market.

However, regulatory stability and predictable pricing mechanisms are also crucial for maintaining investor confidence in a market that is closely tied to global energy dynamics.

Local LPG prices are regulated by the Bangladesh Energy Regulatory Commission, which adjusts retail prices in line with international benchmarks. While this mechanism provides transparency, sudden changes in global prices can still create challenges for both operators and consumers.

“Transparent and predictable pricing mechanisms are essential,” Haque said. “When international prices rise, adjustments should be gradual so that consumers are not suddenly burdened while the industry remains financially viable.”

He expects demand for LPG to continue growing as urbanisation increases and more households move away from traditional cooking fuels such as firewood and biomass.

Industrial and commercial sectors are also gradually expanding their use of LPG due to its efficiency and environmental advantages compared with some conventional fuels.

Industry projections suggest that Bangladesh’s LPG consumption could reach around 40 lakh tonnes annually over the next decade if infrastructure and policy support keep pace with demand.

However, the country’s continued reliance on imported LPG means that global market conditions will remain a defining factor in the sector’s long-term stability.

Strengthening storage capacity, diversifying supply sources, improving port infrastructure and ensuring regulatory consistency will be key steps toward building a more resilient LPG supply chain, said Haque.

Iran said it was tightening control over the ​Strait of Hormuz on Saturday (18 April), warning mariners that the energy lifeline was again closed, as shipping sources said at least two vessels reported coming under fire while trying to transit the waterway.

Tehran said it ‌was responding to a continued US blockade of Iranian ports, calling it a violation of their ceasefire, while Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said Iran's navy was ready to inflict "new bitter defeats" on its enemies.

Tehran's renewed tough messaging injected fresh uncertainty around the Iran conflict, raising the risk that oil and gas shipments through the Strait could remain disrupted just as Washington weighs whether to extend the fragile ceasefire.

Some merchant vessels received radio messages from Iran's navy saying no ships were allowed through the waterway, maritime security and shipping sources said, reversing signs earlier in the day that traffic ​might resume.

At least two vessels reported being hit by gunfire as they attempted to cross the strait, the sources said.

Earlier, maritime trackers had shown a convoy of eight tankers transiting the narrow passage in the first major movement ​of ships since the US-Israeli war on Iran began seven weeks ago.

US-Iran ceasefire due to end on Wednesday

Hours earlier, US President Donald Trump had cited "some pretty good news" about Iran, declining to ⁠elaborate. But he also said fighting might resume without a peace deal by Wednesday, when the two-week ceasefire expires.

Iran had announced its temporary reopening of the Strait of Hormuz following a separate US-brokered 10-day ceasefire agreement on Thursday between Israel and Lebanon. Israel ​invaded parts of southern Lebanon after the Iran-allied Hezbollah militant group joined the fighting in early March.

But on Saturday Iran's armed forces command said transit through the strait had reverted to a state of strict Iranian military control, citing what it described ​as repeated US violations and acts of "piracy" under the guise of a blockade.

The spokesperson said Iran had earlier agreed, "in good faith," to the managed passage of a limited number of oil tankers and commercial vessels following negotiations, but said continued US actions had forced Tehran to restore tighter controls on shipping through the strategic chokepoint.

US Central Command said in a statement that American forces were enforcing a maritime blockade of Iran, but did not comment on the latest Iranian actions.

Unclear if any direct talks this weekend

The war with Iran, which began on 28 February with a US-Israeli ​attack on the Islamic Republic, has killed thousands, spread to Israeli attacks in Lebanon and sent oil prices surging because of the de facto closure of the strait.

Despite the initial movement of ships, Iran's deputy foreign minister, Saeed Khatibzadeh, said no ​date had been set for the next round of negotiations, adding that a framework of understanding must be agreed first.

Asked about reports Tehran had closed the Strait, he said that the Americans had violated the terms of the ceasefire, and so "there will be repercussions for them".

Pressure for ‌a way out ⁠of the war has mounted as Trump's fellow Republicans defend narrow majorities in Congress in the November midterm elections with US gasoline prices high, inflation rising and his own approval ratings down.

"It seems to be going very well in the Middle East with Iran," Trump told reporters on Air Force One while returning to Washington from Phoenix, Arizona, on Friday. "We're negotiating over the weekend. I expect things to go well. Many of these things have been negotiated and agreed to.

"The main thing is that Iran will not have a nuclear weapon. You cannot let Iran have a nuclear weapon, and that supersedes everything else."

But in sharp contrast, Trump also said he might end the ceasefire with Iran unless a long-term deal to end the war was agreed before it ​expires on Wednesday, adding that a US blockade of Iranian ports ​would continue.

Trump has told Reuters there would probably be ⁠more direct talks between Iran and the US this weekend. Some diplomats said that was unlikely given the logistics of gathering in Islamabad, where the talks are expected to take place.

There were no signs of preparations early on Saturday for talks in the Pakistani capital, where the highest-level US-Iran negotiations since the 1979 Islamic Revolution ended without agreement last weekend.

The key Pakistani mediator, ​army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir, has concluded three days of talks in Tehran, the Pakistani military said. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif was also returning to Islamabad after talks ​this week in Qatar, Saudi Arabia ⁠and Turkey.

A Pakistani source aware of mediation efforts said a meeting between Iran and the US could produce an initial memorandum of understanding, followed by a comprehensive peace agreement within 60 days.

No clarity on Iran's nuclear programme

Differences remained over Tehran's nuclear programme, which has been a sticking point in peace talks, with Iran defending its right to what it says is a civilian nuclear energy programme.

Trump told Reuters the US would remove Iran's stockpiles of enriched uranium. Iran's foreign ministry spokesperson told state TV the material would not be transferred ⁠anywhere.

Separately, a senior ​Iranian official said Tehran hoped a preliminary agreement could be reached in the coming days.

Oil prices , fell about 10% and global stocks jumped on Friday on ​the prospect of marine traffic resuming through the strait. Despite that, hundreds of vessels and about 20,000 seafarers remain stranded in the Gulf awaiting passage through the waterway, shipping sources said.

At last weekend's talks, the US proposed a 20-year suspension of all Iranian nuclear activity, while Iran suggested a halt of ​three to five years, according to people familiar with the proposals.

Two Iranian sources have said there were signs of a compromise that could remove part of the stockpile.

The unequal agreement signed by the interim government with the US poses a major obstacle to energy security in Bangladesh rather than the disruption in fuel imports through the Strait of Hormuz, said Debapriya Bhattacharya, a public policy analyst.

“The Strait of Hormuz is indeed an obstacle to fuel imports, but the US trade agreement is a bigger barrier,” he said at a pre-budget shadow parliamentary debate competition organised by the Debate for Democracy on Saturday.

The Agreement on Reciprocal Trade (ART) signed on February 9, just three days before the election, commits Bangladesh to purchasing $15 billion in US energy products, including LNG, over 15 years. It also restricts Bangladesh’s ability to buy cheaper fuel from countries under US sanctions such as Russia.

“The current government says it will not pursue country-specific foreign policies. Yet, that is exactly what is happening in the trade deal -- we now need permission regarding whom we can buy oil from,” said Bhattacharya, a distinguished fellow at the Centre for Policy Dialogue.

However, Bangladesh should make the best of the 60-day waiver offered by the US on oil purchases from Russia.

While criticising the deposed government, Bhattacharya said the energy policy was confusing and controversial, with exploitative policies adopted by an unholy nexus of bureaucrats, business groups and politicians.

Instead of productive investment, priority was given to import-dependent energy strategies to serve vested interests, leading to the import of LNG instead of domestic gas exploration.

Institutions like the state-owned Bangladesh Petroleum Exploration and Production Company (BAPEX) were weakened.

There were major irregularities in energy imports, Bhattacharya said.

The government has formed a cabinet committee on energy security, but it should inform the public about its activities through transparency and bring the matter for discussion in the national parliament.

Although the government has spoken about forming a reform commission in line with its electoral promises, it has not yet been made visible.

The government should clearly disclose its plans for reforms in public financial management, revenue collection and incentives, Bhattacharya added.

While moderating the programme, Hassan Ahamed Chowdhury Kiron, chairman of the Debate for Democracy, said that due to past corruption, Bangladesh failed to achieve self-reliance in energy.

Import dependence was increased for vested interests, while domestic production was neglected.

Therefore, ensuring energy security will be a major challenge for the government in the upcoming budget, he said.

The upcoming budget must reflect the expectations of ordinary people.

During a crisis, a people-friendly, business-friendly, sustainable and cautious budget needs to be presented.

The new government, which has achieved a large mandate, must maintain its popularity by presenting a budget that ensures maximum welfare, avoids placing pressure on lower- and middle-income groups, prevents public suffering and maintains price stability.

Additionally, to keep the economy active and ensure investment and employment growth, a hassle-free business environment must be created.

Therefore, the upcoming budget must be people-oriented and practical, he said.

The ongoing fuel crisis is disrupting irrigation for the ongoing boro season across multiple districts, with farmers and pump owners struggling to secure diesel at a critical stage of crop growth.

In districts including Brahmanbaria, Bogura, Naogaon, Rangpur, Sirajganj, Tangail and Khulna, farmers say diesel supply has fallen short, forcing them to wait for hours at filling stations or return without fuel. In many areas, diesel is being sold at Tk120-130 per litre, above the government rate, while in some cases it is not available even at pumps.

The shortage is delaying irrigation and increasing costs, as farmers are forced to buy diesel at higher prices or collect fuel from multiple sources. Power outages lasting seven to eight hours a day in some areas are also preventing electric pumps from operating, adding pressure on diesel-run irrigation systems.

Authorities have introduced measures such as priority cards and certification from the Department of Agricultural Extension (DAE) to manage supply. However, farmers say they are still not getting adequate fuel. Some pump owners also said they have not received such cards, while others said the supply does not match official claims of availability.

With most irrigation dependent on diesel, farmers say fields are drying due to delayed watering, crop growth is slowing at the paddy heading stage, and the risk of lower yields is increasing. Some also alleged that parts of the fuel supply are controlled by syndicates, contributing to scarcity, and called for stronger monitoring.

High diesel prices in Brahmanbaria

Farmers in Brahmanbaria are struggling to irrigate boro fields amid diesel shortages and load-shedding.

Pump owners said diesel is not available as required, while electric pumps cannot run due to power outages. Diesel is selling at Tk125-130 per litre in local markets.

Boro has been cultivated on 111,770 hectares in the district this season, with 4,338 diesel-run and 4,287 electric pumps in use.

Load-shedding has increased in rural areas, with many areas facing power cuts for seven to eight hours daily. As a result, electric irrigation pumps cannot be operated regularly.

The shortage has intensified since mid-March, with diesel often unavailable at filling stations and sold at higher prices when available.

Abdul Aziz from Ibrahimpur village in Nabinagar upazila said, "Diesel is available at Tk125 per litre, so we have to charge farmers more," adding that irrigation cost per kani has risen from Tk4,000 to Tk5,000.

Another farmer, Abdul Hannan from Akhaura upazila, said, "We cannot run pumps continuously and often have to collect diesel from different places, which increases costs."

Long queues in north

In Bogura, Angur Begum from Kagail area of Gabtali upazila said collecting diesel has become difficult, with long queues at filling stations and prices Tk10-15 higher per litre.

In Naogaon, a card system has been introduced to prioritise diesel supply, but farmers say supply remains inadequate. Rustam Ali from Bhimpur area of Naogaon Sadar upazila said, "We have to wait for hours, and it is becoming difficult to continue cultivation."

According to the Department of Agricultural Extension (DAE), most irrigation systems in the region depend on diesel, and the shortage is severely disrupting irrigation. The district has set a target to cultivate boro on 132,410 hectares this season.

In Rangpur, Abdul Malek from Gangachara upazila said diesel is not being sold even when farmers go to filling stations with containers. "Farmers are in a difficult situation. If we cannot irrigate on time, the entire crop may be lost," he said, alleging that some dishonest traders are involved in a fuel syndicate and calling for stronger monitoring.

In Sirajganj, Naim Sheikh from Telkupi village in Khokshabari union said he sometimes buys diesel at Tk120 per litre after waiting for hours, as demand has increased at a critical stage of paddy growth.

Shahidul Islam from Barakandi village in Kamarkhand upazila said pump owners are reducing irrigation to cut costs due to the shortage. "This may lead to lower yield," he said.

50,000 pump owners 'face shortage' in Tangail

More than 50,000 diesel-run irrigation pump owners in Tangail are facing difficulties due to a fuel shortage during the boro season.

Ayub Khan from Gopalkeutail village in Tangail Sadar upazila said diesel is selling at Tk130 per litre against the government rate of Tk100, but remains unavailable. "Paddy is at a critical stage and lack of irrigation could cause losses," he said.

Local residents said the shortage has led to long queues at filling stations, with some remaining closed for one to two days.

Khokon Mia from the same village said he often travels long distances but returns without fuel. "We have not been able to meet demand for weeks," he said, adding that he received only 20 litres after waiting several hours.

"The situation on the ground does not match official claims of adequate supply," he added.

Md Azad Ali and Abdur Rouf from Omorpur village said they have not received farmer cards and already struggle to recover costs from paddy cultivation, adding that the diesel shortage would further increase losses.

Hours of wait even with certification in Khulna

Farmers in Khulna are struggling to get sufficient diesel despite certification from the Department of Agricultural Extension (DAE), often returning with small amounts after waiting for hours.

Gouranga Mondal from Basurabad village in Sadar union of Batiaghata upazila said he has not been getting diesel for 15 days. "Even with certification, I got diesel worth only Tk500 after waiting in line. Without irrigation at this stage, yield will fall," he said.

Debabrata Mondal from the same village said crop growth has slowed as he could not irrigate for 10 days. "The agriculture office says the shortage is due to the ongoing conflict," he said.

Dip Narayan Biswas from Debitala village said he received 60 litres after 13 days using certification. "This will last a few days, but I do not know what will happen next," he said, adding that watermelon cultivation would face losses without regular irrigation.

Stock markets fell on Friday as investors awaited news of an extension to the Iran-US ceasefire, while crude prices edged back down following the previous day's rally.

The losses follow a healthy, record-breaking week for equities, fuelled by hopes the Middle East war, which is heading into a seventh week, could be close to an end after Donald Trump said negotiators were close to a deal.

But worries abound that a shaky truce agreed earlier this month -- and which ends next week -- could fall apart and spark a fresh market rout.

The US president on Thursday struck an optimistic tone, telling reporters that "it's looking very good that we're going to make a deal with Iran, and it's going to be a good deal", adding that talks between Washington and Tehran could resume this weekend.

He also claimed Iran had "agreed to give us back the nuclear dust", using his name for the country's enriched uranium stockpile, and the deal would include "free oil" as well as the opening of the Strait of Hormuz.

"We had to make sure that Iran never gets a nuclear weapon," Trump said at the White House. "They've totally agreed to that. They've agreed to almost everything, so maybe if they can get to the table, there's a difference."

Iran has given no public indication that it would surrender its stockpile.

However, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth took a tough line on the situation earlier in the day, telling a Pentagon news conference: "If Iran chooses poorly, then they will have a blockade and bombs dropping on infrastructure, power and energy."

Meanwhile, some Gulf Arab and European leaders fear a long-term agreement could take six months to achieve and called for the truce to cover such a time period, Bloomberg reported.

They wanted the Strait of Hormuz -- through which about a fifth of global oil and LNG passes -- opened immediately and have warned in private of a global food crisis if that is not achieved by next month, the report said.

Fragile sentiment

Stocks fell across the region, with Tokyo, which hit a record high Thursday, among the biggest losers, with Seoul, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Sydney, Wellington, Manila and Singapore also well down.

Taiwan's TAIEX dropped. On Thursday it hit a market capitalisation of US$4.14 trillion to top the UK's market capitalisation and become the world's seventh biggest, according to Bloomberg data.

London edged lower, Paris edged up, and Frankfurt was flat.

That came even after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq enjoyed record closes on Wall Street.

Analysts said traders were heading into the weekend to position for any surprise developments.

Oil prices dropped, a day after sharp gains, though both main contracts remain just below $100 a barrel.

There was some support from a 10-day ceasefire agreed between Israel and Lebanon that took effect at 2100 GMT Thursday.

Tel Aviv has sent troops into its northern neighbour since militant group Hezbollah launched rocket attacks in support of Iran last month.

Hezbollah has not officially said if it will recognise the ceasefire, but one of its lawmakers told AFP on Thursday that the group would respect it if Israeli attacks on its militants stopped.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the 10-day ceasefire with Lebanon offered an opportunity for a "historic peace agreement", but insisted that the disarmament of militant group Hezbollah remained a precondition.

Trump said he will invite the countries' leaders to the White House.

"While investors remain buoyed by talks of an extension in the US-Iran ceasefire and an announced Israel-Lebanon 10-day ceasefire, risk sentiment remains fragile as an immediate deal remains unlikely given that the countries remain far apart on key issues," wrote National Australia Bank's Skye Masters.

Fiona Cincotta of City Index said, "While risks remain -- particularly around disruptions to key shipping routes such as the Strait of Hormuz -- markets are increasingly pricing in a scenario where oil prices have peaked unless tensions re-escalate."

But she warned, "the outlook remains fragile. A breakdown in diplomacy or renewed escalation could quickly reverse recent gains".

Key figures around 0715 GMT

Tokyo - Nikkei 225: DOWN 1.8 percent at 58,475.90 (close)

Hong Kong - Hang Seng Index: DOWN 1.2 percent at 26,087.89

Shanghai - Composite: DOWN 0.1 percent at 4,051.43 (close)

London - FTSE 100: DOWN 0.1 percent at 10,584.26

West Texas Intermediate: DOWN 1.0 percent at $93.73 a barrel

Brent North Sea Crude: DOWN 0.6 percent at $98.76 a barrel

Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.1777 from $1.1784 on Thursday

Pound/dollar: DOWN at $1.3507 from $1.3529

Dollar/yen: UP at 159.40 yen from 159.14 yen

Euro/pound: UP at 87.17 pence from 87.09 pence

New York - Dow Jones: UP 0.2 percent at 48,578.72 (close)

Uttara Bank PLC has decided to bolster the financial standing of its brokerage subsidiary, Uttara Bank Securities Limited, by investing Tk192 crore through a rights share subscription.

The decision, aimed at expanding the firm's capital and ensuring smoother operations, comes at a time when the subsidiary is grappling with financial losses and a relatively small capital footprint.

According to a price-sensitive statement issued by the bank, the investment will be made by subscribing to a rights offer recently approved by the subsidiary's shareholders.

The rights offer was formally sanctioned during an Extraordinary General Meeting (EGM) of Uttara Bank Securities on 16 April. Under the approved terms, the brokerage firm will issue four rights shares for every one existing share held by its investors. Each of these rights shares is valued at its face value of Tk10, with the total initiative set to raise Tk200 crore in fresh paid-up capital.

The capital injection is structured to reflect the current shareholding pattern of the brokerage firm. While Uttara Bank will provide the lion's share of the funds, amounting to Tk192 crore, the remaining Tk8 crore will be subscribed by six individual investors who hold a minor stake in the company.

According to the bank's statement, the entire subscription process must be completed within 30 days of the EGM approval date.

Speaking to The Business Standard regarding the move, Muhammad Golam Farukh, chief executive officer of Uttara Bank Securities, said the firm's existing paid-up capital of Tk50 crore was insufficient for its growing operational needs.

He added that the primary objective behind increasing the capital is to strengthen the firm's capital base, which is essential for maintaining stability and ensuring the brokerage house can function efficiently in a competitive market.

This move toward capital fortification is also aligned with the evolving regulatory landscape. The Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) enacted risk-based capital rules on 29 May 2019, setting minimum capital requirements ranging between Tk5 crore and Tk15 crore for stockbrokers, depending on the nature of their operations. These rules were formulated based on the bitter experience of the 2010-11 stock market crash, where lenders were largely blamed for disbursing margin loans far beyond their risk-management capacities.

Furthermore, the conditions of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the best practices of developed financial markets were taken into account while formulating these risk-based supervision rules. By raising its capital, Uttara Bank Securities is moving to ensure it remains well above regulatory cushions and is prepared for more complex market activities.

Uttara Bank Securities was incorporated in 2013 as a fully-fledged subsidiary of Uttara Bank and holds a Trading Right Entitlement Certificate (TREC) at the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE). Despite its decade-long presence, the firm has faced a challenging financial period recently.

In the first nine months of 2025, the firm incurred a net loss of Tk4.94 crore. Furthermore, its financial statements for 2024 revealed negative retained earnings of Tk1.80 crore, although the firm maintained a significant asset base valued at Tk369.70 crore during the same period.

In contrast to the subsidiary's struggles, the parent organisation remains financially robust. Uttara Bank reported a consolidated net profit of Tk335 crore for the January–September period of 2025, with a consolidated earnings per share (EPS) of Tk3.46. This strong performance by the parent bank provides the necessary fiscal cushion to support its subsidiary through this capital expansion.

Currently, Uttara Bank maintains 99.994% ownership in the securities firm, with the remaining portion held by the six individual investors. This strategic move is expected to transform the subsidiary's balance sheet and provide the necessary liquidity to navigate the volatility of the capital market, said the bank.

Claim settlement in Bangladesh's life insurance sector improved significantly in the final quarter of 2025, yet many policyholders remain unpaid, deepening the sector's persistent crisis of confidence.

According to unaudited data from the Insurance Development and Regulatory Authority (Idra), total claims in the life insurance sector stood at Tk13,158 crore by the end of the October-December quarter.

Of this, companies managed to settle Tk8,755 crore, leaving Tk4,403 crore in unpaid claims. In percentage terms, the settlement rate rose to 67%, a sharp increase from just 35% in the previous quarter.

A similar trend is visible in terms of policy numbers. Out of a total of 28.43 lakh matured policies, claims for 16.58 lakh have been settled. However, around 11.85 lakh policyholders are still waiting for payments.

Industry insiders said increased regulatory pressure and closer monitoring by the authorities played a key role to the higher settlement rate in the final quarter. As companies approached the year-end, the need for licence renewal also pushed them to settle claims. Besides, higher business volumes during this period improved liquidity, enabling insurers to pay more claims.

Despite this progress, structural weaknesses in the sector remain evident. Stakeholders said that while a handful of well-performing companies are committed to timely claim settlements, many others continue to show little urgency. As a result, delays persist, leaving policyholders in uncertainty. In many cases, customers wait years, even after policy maturity, to receive their dues.

Insurance expert and UNDP consultant SM Zialul Haque explained that typically 40% to 45% of life insurance business is conducted in the final quarter, compared to 20% to 25% during other periods.

"This increases cash flow for companies, allowing them to settle more claims," he told TBS, pointing out that regulatory pressure related to licence renewal further compels companies to act.

He added that nearly one-third of insurers show a strong reluctance to settle claims. However, a segment of companies remains proactive, especially when they have sufficient funds. "The good companies always try to pay customers on time. But the reluctance of some players is affecting the entire sector."

Top insurers pay over 95%

Data shows that MetLife Bangladesh settled 98.3% of its claims during the period. Its Chief Executive Officer Ala Ahmad said, "The true value of insurance is proven at the moment a claim is made. In 2025, we are proud to have settled Tk2,853 crore in claims, the highest in the industry."

He added that MetLife operates through disciplined financial management and significant technology investments. "We have ensured the largest life fund and a digital process that delivers claim payments in just three to five days."

Pragati Life Insurance also set a positive example by settling 98.5% of its claims. Managing Director and CEO Md Jalalul Azim said that around seven to eight companies are consistently working to improve settlement rates. However, others are moving in the opposite direction, showing little commitment to paying customer claims, which is harming the sector as a whole.

Sheikh Rakibul Karim, Chief Executive Officer of Guardian Life Insurance, said, "Every settlement reflects our commitment to keeping our promises. By ensuring transparency and prompt support, we strive to stand beside our customers and their families when it matters most." The company settled 97.5% of its claims within the stipulated period.

Regulatory interventions

Idra spokesperson Saifunnahar Sumi told TBS that the recent improvements are the result of a series of regulatory interventions. The authority is working to maintain a non-corrupt and unbiased regulatory environment while implementing reforms. These include introducing a grading system for insurers, placing lower-ranked companies under special audits, and rewarding better-performing firms.

The regulator has also strengthened accountability through governance review meetings, where board chairmen and senior management are required to attend. In addition, an interview system has been introduced for the appointment and reappointment of CEOs and advisers to ensure compliance.

The Idra spokesperson said efforts were under way to introduce the proposed Insurers' Resolution Act, which would allow authorities to place non-performing companies under resolution if they fail to improve.

"Amendments to the Insurance Act are also being finalised, including provisions for strict penalties if claims are not settled within the stipulated time," Sumi said. "The regulator is regularly monitoring and following up on unresolved claims to ensure faster settlements."

Bangladesh has surpassed all previous records for wheat imports with nearly three months of the financial year still remaining, driven by growing demand from bakeries, processed food manufacturers, and fish feed producers, combined with lower global prices.

Officials at the food ministry say another 10-15 lakh tonnes of wheat could be imported in the remaining period of the 2025-26 fiscal year.

According to ministry data, 5.83 lakh tonnes of wheat were imported by the government and 61.6 lakh tonnes by the private sector during the first nine months of the fiscal year, totalling the figure to 67.43 lakh tonnes. In FY25, total wheat imports stood at 62.35 lakh tonnes.

Speaking to The Business Standard, industry insiders say wheat demand has risen sharply because of changing food habits and greater use of wheat in bakery products, processed foods and fish feed. Lower prices in the international market have also encouraged companies to buy more than their immediate requirements.

Md Moniruzzaman, director of procurement at the Directorate General of Food, said changing food habits had increased wheat demand in recent years. "This year, wheat imports have reached the highest level in the country's history."

Bangladesh's annual wheat requirement is estimated at 70-80 lakh tonnes. In addition to imports, the country produces around 10-12 lakh tonnes of wheat domestically each year. The Department of Agricultural Extension forecasts local wheat production at 11.14 lakh tonnes in the current fiscal year, up from 10.41 lakh tonnes a year earlier.

The pace of imports has accelerated significantly in recent months. Bangladesh imported 35.35 lakh tonnes of wheat in the first six months of the fiscal year, while another 32.08 lakh tonnes arrived between January and 8 April alone.

Sector insiders say wheat prices surged to record levels in 2022 following the Russia-Ukraine war, but fell to nearly half by the middle of last year and have since remained relatively stable. The lower prices have prompted private companies to increase purchases.

Private sector representatives say demand for bakery products has grown steadily as consumer preferences shift. A decade ago, only a handful of industrial groups marketed processed food products, but now the number is rising continuously. Alongside small bakeries, major industrial groups are making substantial investments in the sector.

Demand has also increased for eateries, restaurants and street food stalls. Wheat is now widely used in the production of noodles, biscuits, bread, chanachur, snacks, dried foods and frozen foods for both the domestic and export markets.

Pran-RFL Group, one of the country's largest food producers, now requires around 2.5 lakh tonnes of wheat a year for its food processing operations, up from about 1.8 lakh tonnes two to three years ago.

Kamruzzaman Kamal, marketing director at Pran-RFL Group, said the processed food market is expanding rapidly and becoming more diversified.

"Demand for wheat-based food products is rising among consumers. These products are being sold not only in the domestic market but also exported abroad," he said.

Echoing Kamal, Taslim Shahriar, deputy general manager of Meghna Group of Industries, said wheat imports have increased because of greater dietary diversity and stronger consumer demand.

Similar views were shared by FH Ansarey, managing director of ACI Agrolink Ltd. Consumers are showing more interest in wheat-based foods than rice because of growing health awareness, he said.

Changing food habits

Although there is no official estimate of the size of the bakery market, industry representatives believe it is worth around Tk15,000 crore. There are around 7,000 manual and live bakeries across the country, employing nearly 10 lakh people. Almost 1,000 bakeries operate in the capital alone.

Corporate investment in the bakery industry has also increased markedly over the past few years, contributing to greater use of wheat.

Md Rezaul Haque Rezu, general secretary of the Bangladesh Bread, Biscuit and Confectionery Manufacturers Association and owner of Haque Bakery, said the industry had suffered first during the pandemic and later because of the Russia-Ukraine war, when many bakeries closed as most wheat imports came from Ukraine.

"Over the last one to one-and-a-half years, the bakery sector has recovered significantly," he said.

"The industry is becoming more diversified and demand is increasing. Many people are eating less rice because of diabetes, while younger consumers are more interested in bakery products. Overall wheat consumption in the country is rising."

Data from the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics show that changing food habits are contributing to the shift towards wheat. According to the Household Income and Expenditure Survey published in 2023, per capita daily consumption of wheat-based foods rose from 19.8 grams in 2016 to 22.9 grams in 2022, an increase of 15.65%.

Among urban consumers, wheat consumption increased by nearly 26% over the same period, while per capita rice consumption fell by 10.43%.

Rising rice prices and falling wheat prices have also encouraged consumers to switch. Three years ago, loose flour cost Tk8-9 more per kg than coarse rice. Now flour is around Tk15 cheaper.

According to the Trading Corporation of Bangladesh, coarse rice currently sells for Tk55-60 per kg, while loose flour costs Tk40-45. In 2023, coarse rice was priced at Tk46-50 per kg, compared with Tk55-58 for flour.

Rising demand in feed industry

Demand for wheat has also increased in the feed industry. Wheat bran is used in animal feed, while wheat itself is widely used in fish feed.

Md Anwarul Haque, general secretary of the Feed Industries Association Bangladesh and managing director of Padma Feed and Chicks Ltd, said fish feed typically contains 18-22% wheat.

"Commercial fish farming is expanding, so demand for feed is also rising. Floating feed is widely used in fish farming, which has increased wheat use in this sector more than ever before," he said.

He added that wheat bran was also used extensively in livestock feed.

Different thoughts

However, not all importers believe the rise reflects a structural increase in demand. Md Shafiul Athar Taslim, director of TK Group, said there is a large market for wheat-based products but argued that imports this year have exceeded actual demand.

"It cannot be said that demand has increased significantly. More wheat has been imported this year than is required. In some years imports are lower, in others they are higher," he said.

The capital bourse returned to positive territory today as opportunistic investors stepped in for bargain hunting, seeking undervalued stocks after the previous session's decline.

The benchmark DSEX index of the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) rose by 24 points to close at 5,254, signalling a cautious recovery amidst an evolving global geopolitical landscape.

Market insiders said while the market displayed resilience, participants remained intently focused on the ongoing developments regarding ceasefire negotiations in the Middle East conflict, which continues to influence broader investor sentiment.

The day's trading session was characterised by range-bound movement, with active participation on both the buying and selling sides. However, buying momentum ultimately prevailed, leading to a broad-based price appreciation across the majority of the traded scripts, they continued.

According to the daily market review by EBL Securities, the market's upward trajectory was tempered by cautious selling in certain large-cap stocks, which prevented a more significant rally.

The blue-chip DS30 index followed the benchmark's lead, inching up by 3 points to settle the day at 1,984.

Market participation showed signs of improvement as total turnover at the DSE surged by 5% to reach Tk836 crore, compared to the previous session.

The market breadth also remained strongly positive, with 239 issues advancing, 90 declining, and 64 remaining unchanged out of the 393 securities traded.

Key index pullers that contributed to the day's gains included Beximco Pharmaceuticals, BRAC Bank, Beacon Pharmaceuticals, Best Holdings, and Asiatic Laboratories.

On the sectoral front, the engineering sector continued to dominate market activity, accounting for 21.2% of the total turnover. This was followed by the pharmaceutical sector with an 11.0% share and the general insurance sector at 10.7%.

In terms of returns, the ceramic sector led the gainers with a 3.4% increase, followed by the travel and information technology sectors, which exhibited returns of 2.9% and 1.6%, respectively.

On the other hand, the banking sector saw a marginal correction of 0.3%, while the cement and food sectors also experienced slight declines.

Individual stock performance saw Coppertech Industries Limited topping the gainers' list with a 10% price hike, followed closely by Mir Akhter Hossain Ltd at 9.90%. Other notable gainers included Meghna Pet, National Polymer, and Prime Finance First Mutual Fund.

Conversely, SEML IBBL Shariah Fund emerged as the top loser, shedding 3.22% of its value, followed by Bank Asia and CAPM BDBL Mutual Fund.

In terms of liquidity, Khan Brothers PP Woven Bag emerged as the turnover leader, with City Bank, Acme Pesticides, Lovello Ice-cream, and Mir Akhter Hossain Ltd also seeing significant trading volume.

The bullish sentiment was mirrored at the Chittagong Stock Exchange where the key indices also posted gains. The CSCX inched up by 12 points to reach 9,038, while the CASPI rose by 23 points to close at 14,756.

However, unlike the premier bourse, the port city exchange witnessed a significant 41% drop in turnover, which stood at Tk24 crore.

Eastern Bank PLC (EBL) has reached a significant milestone in its financial journey, posting a record standalone profit after tax of Tk901 crore for the year 2025.

This achievement represents a robust 20% year-on-year growth, underscoring the bank's consistent earnings momentum and a resilient business model that has successfully navigated an increasingly challenging operating environment, according to a press release.

The bank's board of directors, in a meeting held today (15 April), approved the annual audited financial statements and recommended a generous payout for its shareholders.

The board proposed a 25% cash dividend and a 3% stock dividend for the year ending December 2025, a shift from the previous year's distribution of 17.5% cash and 17.5% stock.

On a consolidated basis, which includes the performance of its subsidiaries, the bank's net profit after tax reached Tk834 crore, marking an even more impressive growth of 26% compared to the previous year.

To finalise these recommendations and review the year's performance, the bank has scheduled its Annual General Meeting (AGM) for 11 June, with 6 May set as the record date for determining shareholder eligibility.

The record-breaking profitability is the culmination of a half-decade of steady growth; EBL's consolidated profit has climbed consistently from Tk480 crore in 2021 to the current Tk834 crore, reflecting a clear trajectory of sustainable value creation.

The bank's strong bottom line was driven by prudent balance sheet management and disciplined risk practices, said the bank in its statement.

Throughout 2025, EBL continued to deliver robust growth across all its key financial indicators. Total deposits rose by 21.6% to reach Tk55,645 crore, while loans and advances increased by 16.1% to settle at Tk47,704 crore by the end of the year.

Perhaps the most striking growth was observed in the bank's investment portfolio, which recorded a significant surge of 47.8%, reaching Tk21,147 crore. This surge highlights the bank's strategic move to optimise its asset allocation in a fluctuating market.

Asset quality remains the strongest pillar of EBL's operational success. While the broader banking industry in Bangladesh has struggled with high levels of defaulted loans – averaging around 30.60% – EBL has managed to bring its non-performing loan (NPL) ratio down to just 2.24%. This figure reflects a level of credit discipline and risk management that is rare in the local market, according to the press release.

Furthermore, the bank maintained full compliance with all regulatory requirements, including BASEL III liquidity standards, ensuring it remained well-capitalised and resilient against potential economic shocks.

This financial stability is reflected in the bank's solo earnings per share (EPS), which rose to Tk5.65 from a restated Tk4.70 in 2024, and its solo net asset value (NAV) per share, which increased to Tk31.86 from Tk27.16.

The bank's profitability indicators also showed sustained strength, with the return on equity (ROE) improving to 19.13% from 18.57% in the previous year. Efficiency remained a priority, as evidenced by a cost-to-income ratio of 40.36%, which is among the lowest in the industry.

To further support future growth and institutional resilience, the bank enhanced its capital base, with the solo capital to risk-weighted assets ratio (CRAR) increasing to 15.49% from 15.11% in the prior year.

As EBL heads into 2026, its record performance reaffirms its position as a market leader, well-equipped to advance its strategic priorities while maintaining a focus on sustainable growth and long-term value for its stakeholders, read the press release.

The Bangladesh Export Processing Zones Authority (Bepza) wants to establish two new export processing zones in Rangpur and Sirajganj to increase industrialisation in the north and encourage the use of solar energy, officials announced yesterday as they celebrated the organisation's 46th anniversary.

Since its inception under the Prime Minister's Office, the organisation has made a substantial contribution to the nation's economic development, and analysts have noted its ongoing influence on social and economic advancement.

Bepza Executive Chairman Major General Mohammad Moazzem Hossain said, "Currently, besides eight operational EPZs and two economic zones, new EPZs are being implemented in Jashore and Patuakhali, and EPZs in Rangpur and Sirajganj are in the planning stage. Once implemented, the geographical spread of the country's industrialisation will increase further."

Sources said 450 acres of land under Rangpur Sugar Mill in the Sahebganj area of Gobindaganj have been already handed over to Bepza for EPZ. It is anticipated that the establishment of an EPZ will provide jobs for more than a lakh people.

The Bepza Act was passed in 1980, and the organisation formally began operations on 15 April 1981 through a gazette notification, marking a new phase of planned industrialisation.

Beyond readymade garments, EPZs now produce car parts, electronics, camera lenses, wigs, shoes and bicycles. Only 32% of factories produce garments, while 68% represent diversified industries.

ASM Anwar Parvez, executive director (public relations), told TBS, "By attracting domestic and foreign investment, increasing exports through diversification of export products, and creating employment, the zones under Bepza's management are making unique contributions to the country's industrial sector.

"The total area of the eight EPZs and Bepza Economic Zone is only 3,550.33 acres or 14.37 sq-km, which is less than 0.001% of the country's total area. From this small land, Bepza contributes about 15-20% of total exports every year. In the fiscal 2024-25, the contribution was 17.03%."

He added, "In the last 45 years, Bepza has attracted $7.29 billion in investment and exported goods worth over $125 billion. Currently, around 5.5 lakh people are employed, a large portion of whom are women. This employment drives economic growth and supports social change and women's empowerment."

Following the success of eight EPZs, Bepza began establishing the Bepza Economic Zone in 2018 at Mirsharai in Chattogram, where exports have already started. The zone has drawn strong interest from investors and become a key industrial hub.

Eight companies are in production there, five are in trial production, and 34 are under implementation. Bepza has also started developing EPZs in Jashore and Patuakhali, with plot allocation expected within this year.

At an event marking "Bepza Day 2026" yesterday, Moazzem Hossain said, "Bepza has been making important contributions to the country's economic development for the last 45 years. This contribution is not limited to attracting investment and exports, but has also brought marginal communities into the mainstream through employment creation and made them self-reliant."

"Besides, Bepza is playing a pioneering role in worker welfare by establishing modern hospitals and schools in Bepza zones," he added.

The government has begun drafting a five-year strategic framework that targets economic growth of 6.2% in the 2026-27 fiscal year, up from a projected 5% in FY26, as it seeks to stabilise the economy and shift towards investment-led growth.

The proposed framework, presented at the first meeting of an advisory committee chaired by former planning adviser Wahiduddin Mahmud, sets out a gradual rise in growth over the following years, with targets of 7.1% in FY28, 7.5% in FY29 and 8% in FY30.

The plan also aims to increase total investment to 36.7% of gross domestic product by FY30, while reducing inflation to 5% by the period.

A projection presented at the first meeting of an advisory committee chaired by former planning adviser Wahiduddin Mahmud forecast a gradual depreciation of the taka against the US dollar over the current fiscal year and the following four years.

According to the General Economics Division, the exchange rate could rise to Tk126.3 per dollar in the current 2025-26 fiscal year, followed by Tk131 in FY27, Tk134.9 in FY28, Tk138 in FY29 and Tk140 in FY30.

The government plans to introduce a 180-day action plan covering exchange rate rationalisation, stabilisation of energy supply and fast-track reforms to business licensing.

A one-year programme will include restructuring of the financial sector, creation of an integrated social protection platform and expansion of financing for small and medium-sized enterprises.

Over the five-year period, the government intends to pursue industrial diversification, universal social protection and regional economic transformation.

Speaking yesterday (15 April), Prime Minister's Adviser on Finance and Planning Rashed Al Mahmud Titumir said the initial measures under the plan would be implemented up to FY30 and would focus on economic recovery and stability.

"The rehabilitation process is also expected to be completed within the next year," he said.

Documents presented at the meeting showed that the framework seeks to raise capital productivity, create nearly one crore jobs across different sectors and increase revenue collection to 10% of GDP.

The first five-year plan of the BNP government will include proposals to develop Chattogram as the country's commercial capital, establish a pension fund for the private sector, introduce unemployment benefits and provide interest-free loans to small enterprises and cottage industries.

The plan also proposes waiving agricultural loans of up to Tk10,000 taken from non-governmental organisations.

The government has set a longer-term target of building a $1 trillion economy by 2034 and increasing foreign investment to 2.5% of GDP.

The framework identifies information and communication technology, the blue economy and renewable energy as the main drivers of future growth.

It aims to ensure that at least 20% of total electricity generation comes from renewable sources by FY30.

The plan also includes a target of creating around one crore jobs and recruiting five lakh people into government service through merit-based appointments.

In the social sector, the government plans to introduce a "Family Card" programme for around four crore vulnerable households.

It also intends to raise public spending on health and education gradually to 5% of GDP.

The proposed framework includes a number of governance reforms, including a 10-year limit on the tenure of a prime minister, the introduction of a bicameral parliament with an upper chamber of 100 members and the restoration of a neutral caretaker government system.

The plan targets an increase in nominal GDP to $742.57 billion by FY30 from $495.17 billion at present, as part of the government's election pledge to build a $1 trillion economy by 2034.

After the meeting, Titumir said the new framework would move away from what he described as earlier "detached and number-focused" plans and would instead emphasise practical strategies aligned with current economic conditions and future challenges.

He said accountability and a clear implementation roadmap would be among the defining features of the new strategy.

State Minister for Planning Zonayed Saki said the country is facing a fragile economic situation and that the government had inherited a weak macroeconomic structure. "The goal is to move from recovery to long-term prosperity."

He added that there had been shortcomings in the implementation of earlier development plans and that the government had already begun assessing the current situation, reviewing past outcomes and reassessing ongoing projects.

GED member Monjur Ahmed said the government had initially considered adopting a two-year recovery programme but later expanded the initiative into a comprehensive five-year strategy after the formation of the elected government.

He said a draft would be prepared within two months, followed by consultations with stakeholders.

The final document is expected to be completed within the following two to three months before the implementation phase begins.

After a gap of nearly two months, the Bangladesh Bank has purchased dollars from commercial banks through an auction.

The central bank today (15 April) bought $70 million from commercial banks at a rate of Tk122.75, a senior official confirmed.

Earlier this week, the central bank issued a verbal instruction to banks to purchase dollars from remittance houses at a maximum rate of Tk122.90.

Regarding this, a senior central bank official told The Business Standard, "The remittance rate is Tk122.90, while dollars were purchased from commercial banks via auction at Tk122.75.

"This indicates that the Bangladesh Bank intends to reduce the dollar rate slightly further. Essentially, the central bank signaled to the market that the dollar rate should hover around Tk122.75."

Commenting on the matter, a senior official of a private bank told TBS, "There are sufficient dollars in the market. The central bank purchased dollars at this price to ensure the rate does not rise further, as inflation remains a major challenge for them.

"High inflation has persisted in the country for a long time, and controlling it is the central bank's primary objective. Therefore, the central bank believes that by bringing down the dollar rate, it will be able to reduce inflation. This will also somewhat lower costs for importers."

Another senior official from a private bank said, "The price of the dollar began to rise following the start of the Iran war. The Bangladesh Bank has received information that several banks purchased dollars at higher prices because of this. It is expected that the dollar rate will decrease again in the coming days."

The government has drafted a five-year strategic framework proposing to designate ICT as a special priority sector and send 20 lakh workers abroad annually.

The draft framework has been made in line with the government’s aim of achieving a trillion-dollar economy by 2034, according to a presentation by the General Economics Division (GED) of the Bangladesh Planning Commission at an advisory council meeting yesterday.

It projects real GDP growth reaching 8 percent by fiscal year 2029-30 (FY30), nominal GDP at $749 billion, inflation falling to 5 percent, and gross investment rising to 37.6 percent of GDP.

The outline will go through further consultations with relevant stakeholders before being finalised.

ICT AND JOBS

As per the draft, within the ICT sector alone, the government is targeting 10 lakh direct and indirect jobs.

Of the 10 lakh ICT jobs, 2 lakh are targeted in five areas -- cybersecurity, business process outsourcing (BPO), artificial intelligence (AI) and data, semiconductors, and Industry 4.0. The remaining 8 lakh are to be created indirectly through freelancing.

A national initiative will strengthen software, hardware, and BPO industries, backed by a commitment to universal high-speed internet, the GED said.

The draft also states plans to introduce a national e-wallet, including PayPal access, for freelancers and tech professionals.

Beyond ICT, the government aims to send 20 lakh people abroad annually through short-term language and skills training.

More than 5 lakh vacant government posts are to be filled through a transparent recruitment process.

EXPORT AND ENERGY

As per the draft plan, the garment sector will see stronger “Made in Bangladesh” branding through new product innovation.

The draft aims to broaden the export base by prioritising pharmaceuticals, leather, footwear, and agriculture and fisheries-based products.

Strategic free trade agreements at bilateral, multilateral, and minilateral levels are planned with key economic blocs across East and Far East Asia, Europe, Africa, and the Middle East.

On the energy front, the draft proposes ensuring supply of at least 20 percent of electricity from renewable sources -- solar, wind, hydropower, and waste-to-energy -- by 2030.

The power generation capacity is set at 35,000 megawatts, with transmission lines to be expanded to 25,000 circuit kilometres.

INVESTMENT AND BUSINESS

The outlined framework aims to increase foreign direct investment (FDI) from 0.45 percent to 2.5 percent of GDP within the next five years.

It proposes dedicated liaison officers and a formal complaint resolution system to build investor confidence, alongside a commitment to avoid sudden policy changes in tariffs, taxes, and export incentives.

To improve the business environment, it has set a target to complete digitalisation of approval processes to eliminate red tape and reduce physical contact in business transactions.

Company registrations are to be completed within 48 hours, and work permits within seven days.

A Bangladesh International Commercial Court will be established for fast-tracking commercial dispute resolution, and a Deposit Protection Ordinance is planned to ensure repayment from distressed banks as quickly as possible.

Besides, the tax-to-GDP ratio is targeted at 15 percent by 2035, to be achieved through expanded economic activity rather than a higher tax burden.

BLUE, CREATIVE ECONOMIES

The blue economy -- covering oil and gas exploration, renewable energy, fish harvesting, and shipbuilding -- will be developed as a national priority within Bangladesh’s maritime area.

The proposed framework has also set a target for the government to raise the contribution of the creative economy -- spanning film, music, theatre, gaming, VFX, and content creation -- to 1.5 percent of GDP, and create 5 lakh new jobs by 2035.

TOURISM AND SMEs

A national tourism policy update has been proposed, alongside a programme to help each village produce and market its own traditional product through design support, order-based loans, and e-commerce connectivity.

The draft also recommends that government channels low-interest loans based on each district’s heritage and renowned products, support for cottage industries, links to global e-commerce platforms.

AKM Ansar Uddin, a former official of Bangladesh Petroleum Exploration and Production Company Limited (Bapex), placed his retirement savings of Tk 16 lakh with People’s Leasing and Financial Services Limited in the hope of earning a steady return.

He set aside the money for his three children, especially for the marriages of his two daughters. But when the deposit matured, the company did not return the principal, let alone any interest.

As his health deteriorated, the elderly depositor was unable to withdraw the funds for treatment. He died in November last year. Amid financial hardship, the family later arranged the daughters’ weddings without ceremony.

Speaking at a press conference at the Jatiya Press Club yesterday, his wife, Akhtari Begum, broke down in tears as she described their ordeal. Their youngest son, Anaf Uddin, sat beside her.

The event was organised by the Alliance of 6 NBFIs Depositors Recovery Committee, which represents depositors of six non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs) now under liquidation. The institutions are FAS Finance, Premier Leasing, Fareast Finance, Aviva Finance, People’s Leasing and International Leasing.

Over the years, several non-bank institutions collapsed amid widespread mismanagement, weak governance and heavy exposure to non-performing loans. Poor regulatory oversight and delayed action by the Bangladesh Bank (BB) deepened the crisis and ultimately led to liquidation.

At the press conference, Akhtari Begum said she had struggled to arrange her daughters’ marriages with dignity. “We are now uncertain how to survive with my children and cannot even ask others for help. Now I feel completely lost.”

She said her husband expected to receive Tk 7 lakh, which he planned to use for medical treatment instead of taking loans, fearing he would leave his family in debt. Now, she said, she does not know how she will live the rest of her life.

Nashid Kamal, a professor and Nazrul exponent, coordinated the press conference, where other depositors recounted similar hardship after their savings became trapped in the six institutions.

She said some depositors, including Mustafa Zaman Abbasi, a musicologist, reportedly died without proper medical treatment because he could not access his money.

Another depositor said her family invested funds primarily meant for medical treatment and savings in Aviva Finance. Since 2024, they have been unable to withdraw their money or receive regular returns.

“Even urgent medical requests submitted to the company were ignored, leaving us uncertain about our future,” she said, urging collective action, including approaching the BB governor and the finance minister.

A representative of the Khaled Mansur Trust, a privately funded charitable organisation, said the trust invested donated assets in institutions such as People’s Leasing, International Leasing and FAS Finance.

“The returns were used for education, healthcare, and welfare activities for underprivileged communities. However, with the funds now lost, our humanitarian work has been severely disrupted,” the representative said.

The trust urged the government to recognise it as a charitable entity and ensure the return of its deposits, saying that without support, its work for orphans and disadvantaged children may collapse.

Speakers called on the authorities to take immediate steps to repay the depositors, saying many families are living in acute distress. They said about 2,000 families have been affected. Many have neither recovered their principal nor received interest.

At the beginning of the press conference, Nashid Kamal read out a written statement on behalf of the affected depositors. She demanded the return of their hard-earned savings.

“For nearly seven years, depositors of various non-bank financial institutions have been suffering severe financial hardship due to mismanagement, weak governance, and delayed regulatory actions,” she said.

She said that while reforms, deposit protection and recovery mechanisms have been introduced in the banking sector, similar effective measures have not been properly implemented in the NBFI sector.

“We firmly state that any recovery or deposit protection framework applied to banks must also be extended to NBFIs, with necessary adjustments while safeguarding depositors’ fundamental rights. A depositor is a depositor whether in a bank or an NBFI. Equal protection, fair compensation, and timely repayment must be ensured in both sectors.”

The forum demanded a clear, transparent and time-bound roadmap to return deposits within 36 months, immediate recovery efforts for troubled institutions, regulatory protection equivalent to that in the banking sector, full transparency and accountability in liquidation and recovery processes, and strict legal action against those involved in financial irregularities.

In the statement, she said, “We call upon the government, the central bank, and all relevant authorities to take urgent and effective steps to restore confidence in the financial sector and ensure justice for affected depositors.”

“Our demands are simple and fair,” she said, adding that they would remain united in lawful protest until depositors’ rightful money is fully returned.

In January this year, the central bank decided to liquidate six of the country’s 35 non-bank financial institutions because of poor financial health.

The current BB governor, Md Mostaqur Rahman, appointed by the BNP-led government, has said reforms will continue, including the liquidation of the six institutions.