Overall inflation rose to its highest level in ten months in February, climbing to 9.13 percent from 8.58 percent in January, according to data released by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics yesterday.

Economists say rising food prices ahead of Ramadan and election-related spending added to demand pressures, pushing the Consumer Price Index (CPI), a measure of the prices of a basket of goods and services, above 9 percent for the first time since May last year.

February also marks the fourth consecutive monthly increase since inflation touched a 39-month low of 8.17 percent in October.

Food inflation bore the brunt of the rise, jumping to 9.30 percent in February from 8.29 percent the previous month. Non-food inflation also edged higher, reaching 9.01 percent from 8.81 percent, reflecting continued pressure in housing, transport and healthcare.

Bangladesh has been struggling with persistent inflation for more than three years. The burden falls hardest on the poor and low-income households, who spend a disproportionate share of their earnings on food and have the least capacity to absorb price shocks.

Inflation moderated slightly in recent months, but the 12-month annual average rate remained above 8.5 percent in January even though Bangladesh Bank maintains a hawkish monetary policy stance aimed at curbing demand-driven price increases and stabilising the economy.

As part of its tightening measures, the central bank has kept the policy rate at 10 percent for nearly one and a half years.

In its latest monthly economic updates, the General Economic Division under the Planning Commission said the recent trend indicates continued pressure from food prices within the overall inflation framework.

Sectoral contribution analysis shows that food remains the largest contributor to headline inflation in January.

Food accounted for 43.06 percent of overall inflation in January, up from 40 percent in December. Fish and dry fish remained the highest contributors, although their share decreased from 43.34 percent to 32.27 percent, it said.

ELECTION SPENDING, SUPPLY PRESSURE

Zahid Hussain, former lead economist at the World Bank’s Dhaka office, pointed to a convergence of February-specific factors. “We cannot look at this solely through the lens of monetary policy.”

Noting that urban food inflation rose the most, he explained, “part of this increase seems linked to election-related demand”.

Campaign spending, providing snacks at tea stalls or serving biryani, boosts the food component and contributes to higher prices, he said.

On the supply side, he noted, “A major disruption at the ports in February increased inflation expectations and hoarding tendencies.”

The economist also explained that combined with the lean season for food production -- the peak winter season has ended, but the spring harvest has not yet arrived -- this created a double burden on food prices.”

Hussain went on to point out that non-food inflation also rose, particularly in the miscellaneous category, which went from 21 to 24 percent. Understanding this category is key, as it recorded the highest inflation.

CONTRACTIONARY POLICY ESSENTIAL: ECONOMISTS

Regarding monetary policy, Hussain said, “Without the contractionary stance, the situation would have been even worse. The new governor had discussed reducing the policy rate, but that option has been postponed in light of recent challenges.”

With the Middle East conflict between Iran and US-Israel now threatening fuel and import costs, he warned the outlook was worsening.

“Now, with the war adding further pressure, it’s like rubbing salt on the wound. Inflation, growth, and employment are all under strain, and the situation ahead does not look positive from any perspective,” he said.

Ashikur Rahman, principal economist of the Policy Research Institute, also agrees that the central bank’s monetary policy stance is the right way to handle the situation.

“The twelve-month moving average clearly shows that inflation is on a downward trajectory, indicating that the current contractionary monetary stance is beginning to yield results,” he said.

“Bangladesh’s real policy rate, calculated by subtracting the inflation rate from the policy rate, stands at roughly 1.5 percent, one of the lowest in South Asia,” he added.

He cautioned that any premature easing risked reigniting inflation and undermining macroeconomic stability.

Md Deen Islam, a professor of economics at Dhaka University, echoed a similar tone on keeping monetary policy unchanged.

“The limited impact of higher policy rates largely reflects weak monetary transmission in the banking sector. Lending rates and credit flows often do not adjust fully to policy signals due to structural inefficiencies and high levels of non-performing loans.”

“Much of the recent inflation in Bangladesh has been driven by supply-side factors -- rising food prices, exchange rate depreciation, and higher import costs for fuel and essential commodities -- which monetary policy alone cannot easily control,” he noted.

He emphasised that addressing inflation effectively requires a broader policy mix that combines prudent monetary management with improvements in supply chains, enhanced market competition, exchange rate stability, and fiscal coordination.

Bangladesh and India have agreed to resolve problems surrounding projects financed under India’s line of credit (LoC) assistance, following talks between Indian High Commissioner Pranay Verma and Bangladesh Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury in Dhaka yesterday.

Speaking to reporters after the meeting, Khosru said they also discussed the progress of LoC-supported projects. “Hopefully, the projects will see further progress in the coming days.”

Verma described the meeting as “very positive and productive”, saying discussions focused on strengthening financial sector cooperation, expanding economic relations and other issues of mutual interest between the two countries.

Both countries remain satisfied with the progress of the ongoing projects, he said.

“Some initial challenges have emerged in a few large projects, but efforts are being made to resolve them,” he said.

The talks come against the backdrop of sluggish disbursement under the three LoC agreements signed since 2010.

Of a total commitment spanning 42 projects, only $1.88 billion was disbursed by June 2024 against cumulative LoC deals worth over $7 billion, while Bangladesh repaid $254 million.

The first LoC, worth $862 million for 15 projects, was signed in 2010. The second, worth $2 billion for 12 projects, was signed in March 2016. The third credit deal, amounting to $4.5 billion, was signed for 15 projects in October 2017.

Just 14 of the 42 projects have been completed, at a cost of roughly $410 million, or about 6 percent of the overall commitment under the first two credit lines.

Beyond the LoC, the two sides discussed a broader range of bilateral issues, including trade, customs, financial sector cooperation and digital infrastructure.

Verma said Bangladesh’s priorities in the financial sector were discussed during the meeting, including improving the ease of doing business, tax reforms and expanding the use of technology to ensure broader participation in economic activities.

The Indian envoy said he briefed the finance minister on India’s experience expanding financial inclusion through its digital public infrastructure.

The two sides also discussed development projects being implemented jointly by the two countries.

On trade, the Indian high commissioner said both sides emphasised the need to further strengthen bilateral trade and economic ties.

Discussions also focused on making existing connectivity through sea, land and air routes more efficient to facilitate trade and business activities.

“If various processes can be simplified as part of ease of doing business, cooperation between businesses of the two countries will increase,” Verma said.

He added that this would help boost bilateral trade as well as increase Bangladesh’s exports to the Indian market.

The meeting also discussed ways to integrate the two economies more closely at both bilateral and regional levels, he said.

Verma said constructive discussions would take place in the future regarding the potential use of ports between the two countries.

He added that stronger bilateral relations could be built in the future based on shared development priorities, new ideas, technology and people-centric cooperation.

Following the payment of $1.37 billion in bills to the Asian Clearing Union (ACU), the country's foreign exchange reserves have once again fallen below $30 billion.

Bangladesh Bank Spokesperson and Executive Director Arief Hossain Khan confirmed the development today (8 March), saying that after the ACU payment for January and February, the reserves now stand at $29.38 billion.

ACU payments are made every two months to settle import transactions among member countries under the regional clearing arrangement.

The ACU was established on 9 December 1974 under the initiative of the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia, with its headquarters in Tehran, Iran.

The organisation facilitates the settlement of trade payments among its nine member countries – Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Iran, Maldives, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka – through a multilateral clearing system involving the central banks of these nations.

The Dhaka stock market suffered its sharpest single-day decline in six years today (8 March), with the benchmark index DSEX losing 231 points amid fears of energy supply uncertainty linked to the United States–Israel war on Iran.

Of the traded stocks, 95% or 371 stocks saw price decline amid sell-offs, only 10 stocks price advanced and 9 stocks price remained unchanged.

At the end of the trading session, DSEX, the benchmark index of the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) lost 231 points or around 4.42% closed to 5,008 points, which is the highest single-day fall since March 2020.

Six years ago, the key index DSEX witnessed a massive plunge amid investors' panic-driven sales due to the fear of the coronavirus impact.

Meanwhile, the DSE's shariah index fell 3.36% or 35 points to 1,013 points and DS-30, the blue-chip index fell 4.55% or 91.53 points to 1,919 points.

On 3 March, stocks also suffered as investors' continued sell-offs and DSEX lost 208 points. With that loss last week, DSEX lost 359 points or 6.42%, the DSE data showed, as escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East rattled investor confidence and triggered broad-based selling.

Olympic Industries PLC has approved the purchase and import of new capital machinery to expand its packaging and food processing capacity.

The decision was taken at a board meeting held on Saturday, according to a disclosure filed on the Dhaka Stock Exchange yesterday.

Under the plan, the company will import two sets of brand-new capital machinery to establish a carton production plant. The equipment will have a combined annual production capacity of 315.36 million pieces, with each set capable of producing 157.68 million pieces per year.

The machinery will be procured from China at a total cost of $500,000, including freight charges, which is equivalent to around Tk6.13 crore. The machines will be installed and commissioned at the company's Kutubpur factory in Narayanganj.

In a separate move, the board also approved the purchase of a brand-new egg washing and breaking machine for its food processing operations. The machine, which will have an annual capacity of 175.20 million pieces, will be imported from Hong Kong.

The cost of the machinery, including freight, is estimated at $46,000, equivalent to approximately Tk56.44 lakh. It will be installed and commissioned at the company's Lolati factory in Kanchpur.

The investment is expected to strengthen Olympic's packaging capability while enhancing efficiency in its food production process, said the company in its disclosure.

Olympic Industries, one of the leading fast-moving consumer goods companies, is producing a wide range of biscuits, confectionery and bakery products for both domestic and export markets.

The company has maintained steady financial growth in recent periods. For the July-December period of 2025, Olympic reported revenue of Tk1,548 crore, up from Tk1,490 crore in the same period a year earlier.

During the period, earnings per share rose slightly to Tk5.99 from Tk5.82 a year earlier. The company's net asset value per share stood at Tk65.34 as of December 2025.

Bangladesh's import of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from long-term contracts has become highly uncertain after all three suppliers invoked force majeure, a legal tool that allows them to suspend or delay contractual obligations in events beyond their control, amid the ongoing US-Israel war on Iran.

According to Petrobangla officials, the latest force majeure notice came from Oman-based OQ Trading Limited on 5 March, followed by the US-based Excelerate Energy the next day.

Earlier on 2 March, Bangladesh's largest LNG supplier QatarEnergy invoked the same.

Confirming the development, Petrobangla Chairman Md Arfanul Hoque on Saturday told TBS, "We are now looking for alternatives from the spot market to fill the window left vacant by the three suppliers."

With the three suppliers invoking force majeure, Bangladesh is set to lose all six LNG cargoes scheduled under long-term contracts for April, along with two additional deliveries from short-term arrangements.

Officials said the development could potentially block the supply of at least eight LNG cargoes from both long- and short-term contracts, leaving Bangladesh heavily dependent on the volatile spot market.

According to the import plan, three additional cargoes were supposed to be procured from the spot market in April too which means Bangladesh has a plan to procure 11 LNG cargoes in April.

All three suppliers interlinked

Petrobangla officials said once QatarEnergy – which is scheduled to supply around 40 LNG cargoes to Bangladesh in 2026 – invoked force majeure, similar moves by the other suppliers became almost inevitable as QatarEnergy accounts for around 20% of the world's seaborne LNG.

Officials added that supply arrangements from the other suppliers, OQ Trading (OQT) and Excelerate, are closely linked to deliveries tied to QatarEnergy under existing agreements.

While there is a provision to source LNG from alternative suppliers outside QatarEnergy if OQT and Excelerate can manage, the enforcement of force majeure effectively blocks this option.

Petrobangla said the force majeure imposed by OQ Trading will remain in effect until 8 April.

Petrobangla Chairman Arfanul said, "With the imposition of force majeure by OQ, Petrobangla will lose two cargoes scheduled for delivery on 3 and 8 April."

What was the April import plan

According to Petrobangla's earlier LNG import plan, 11 cargoes were scheduled to arrive in April. Of these, six were to come under long-term contracts, two under short-term, and three from the spot market.

Of the six long-term cargoes, three were to be supplied by QatarEnergy, one by QatarEnergy Trading, one by OQT, and one by Excelerate. Of these six cargoes, five were expected to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, while one was to come from Angola.

Energy officials said that out of the six deliveries planned for April, four cargoes have already been confirmed cancelled following the invocation of force majeure by the suppliers.

Talking to TBS yesterday, Energy Secretary Md Saiful Islam said the government is now stepping up efforts to import LNG from the spot market to maintain supply. "Bangladesh is also considering purchasing LNG through G2G arrangements under direct procurement."

Short-term supply also under threat

According to Petrobangla's plan for April, Bangladesh intended to import two cargoes under short-term contracts – one from OQ Trading and another from Saudi Aramco.

Officials said one of the cargoes originates from Qatar and normally transits through the Strait of Hormuz, while the origin and route of the other cargo have yet to be confirmed. As OQ Trading has invoked force majeure, supply from the company has become uncertain.

Besides, Bangladesh had planned to procure three cargoes from the spot market in April.

Volatile spot market now only hope

With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed and production disruptions reported at facilities operated by QatarEnergy, LNG supplies under long-term contracts have become uncertain.

To mitigate the disruption, the energy secretary said the government has already invited tenders to purchase LNG cargoes from the spot market for April delivery.

"We floated a tender on 8 March for four cargoes from the spot market. Bidders have been given two days until Tuesday to respond," said Secretary Saiful. "Apart from the spot market, we are also opening a window to purchase LNG on a G2G basis."

Officials from the Energy Division and Petrobangla warned that LNG availability in the spot market is tightening as major buyers such as China, Japan, South Korea, and India scramble for additional cargoes, pushing prices higher.

They said the situation could leave price-sensitive importers like Bangladesh, already under fiscal strain, particularly vulnerable to the ongoing volatility.

Earlier, Petrobangla floated a tender to buy two LNG cargoes for the March delivery window from the spot market, but the first attempt drew no bids.

In the second attempt, the agency secured one cargo at over $28 per MMBtu and another at around $24 per MMBtu, nearly 2.5 times higher than prices below $10 per MMBtu on 1 March.

According to the Asian spot LNG benchmark Platts JKM, prices stood at $10.73 per MMBtu on 27 February but surged to around $15.7 per MMBtu in the latest trading sessions.

Meanwhile, Energy Minister Iqbal Hassan Mahmood Tuku yesterday said fuel reserves in Bangladesh have increased with the arrival of two fuel-laden ships, reports UNB.

"Once these two ships deliver fuel, our reserves will increase further," he said at a discussion programme. The minister said rising reserves do not mean fuel can be used in an uncontrolled manner. "We will continue rationing for as long as the war continues."

Prices of several food items in Khatunganj – one of the country's largest wholesale markets for essential commodities – have risen although stocks remain sufficient, and despite the fact those items had been imported before the Iran war began.

It takes around 45 days for soybean shipments from Latin America to reach Chattogram port. Yet following news of war in the Middle East on 1 March, the price of soybean oil in Khatunganj rose by up to Tk150 per maund.

This is despite the fact that 463,000 tonnes of crude soybean oil were imported during the first eight months of the current fiscal year. Although there are sufficient stocks, soybean oil has reportedly become scarce in retail markets in Dhaka and Chattogram a week after the war began, as unscrupulous traders allegedly manipulated the supply.

The price surge is not limited to soybean oil. Palm oil prices in Khatunganj have increased by up to Tk200 per maund, even though palm oil is imported from Malaysia and has no direct connection to the Middle East conflict. According to customs data, 1.038 million tonnes of palm oil were imported during the first eight months of the fiscal year.

Market insiders say there is no justification for prices to rise for goods that are already in stock due to the war. Even if prices were to increase, the impact would likely be felt only after two to three months. Experts blame the administration's inaction and unethical traders for the current volatility.

Dr Naeem Uddin Hasan Aurangzeb, a professor of economics at the University of Chittagong, told The Business Standard that the government has not yet increased fuel prices.

"If fuel prices increase, that may affect other commodities. But the conditions for the war to influence commodity prices have not yet arisen, and even if it does, it will take some time. In reality, dishonest traders are raising prices," he said.

Traders say prices in Khatunganj generally move in line with international markets – rising when global prices rise and falling when they fall. Although soybean prices fluctuate, mill owners sometimes reduce sales during uncertain periods such as wartime despite adequate stocks. They also note that the cost of imports depends heavily on international market prices.

According to traders, the war must end soon, otherwise it may affect the country's economy and foreign exchange reserves.

Market inquiries show that until the afternoon of 1 February, open refined palm oil was selling at Tk5,900 per maund. After news of an attack on Iran spread, the price rose to Tk6,000 in the evening. Although it fell slightly the following day, it later increased again by Tk200 and is now trading at around Tk6,200.

Similarly, wheat prices have risen to Tk1,300 per maund, around Tk150 higher than before. The price of open soybean oil has increased by Tk120 to Tk150 per maund and is now selling between Tk7,180 and Tk8,200. Sugar prices have also risen by Tk70 to Tk80 per maund to Tk3,470–Tk3,480.

Super oil prices have increased by Tk200 to Tk6,400. Drum bitumen is now selling for Tk15,000 compared to Tk12,000 previously. Raisins are selling at Tk780–Tk800 per kg, with prices rising by Tk100–Tk120 depending on quality. The biggest increase has been seen in the price of dried sour plums (tok alu), which have jumped from Tk300–Tk400 to Tk800–Tk1,000.

Prices of imported pulses and dry food products have also been trending upward, although they had begun to decline slightly in the wholesale market after the start of Ramadan.

Cumin is trading at Tk570–Tk580 per kg, cardamom at Tk4,200–Tk4,500, cinnamon at Tk355–Tk450, cloves at Tk1,300–Tk1,320 and black pepper at Tk1,020–Tk1,040. Nutmeg is selling at Tk720, mace at Tk2,700–Tk2,800, ginger at Tk100–Tk110 and onions at Tk25–Tk52 depending on quality. Chinese garlic is selling at Tk200 per kg while local garlic is priced at around Tk50.

Md Mohiuddin, general secretary of the Chaktai-Khatunganj Aratdar General Traders Welfare Association and an importer of consumer goods, told TBS that prices of a few items have increased but most commodities remain at normal levels.

"If the war in the Middle East becomes prolonged, it could affect the supply chain of consumer goods, creating a risk of price increases for all products," he said.

Consumer rights activists say some traders are using the war as an excuse to create instability in the market.

SM Nazrul Hossain, vice-president of the central committee of the Consumers Association of Bangladesh (CAB), told TBS that traders often look for an issue to raise prices.

"The war has provided them with such an excuse. There is no reason for such an immediate impact here because of the war. Only if there is a fuel shortage and transportation costs rise might there be an effect—but that is not the case now," he said.

He added that the administration has not taken any action on the issue.

"Even though there is a new government, no instructions have yet been issued from the ministries to the administration. The government must take a tougher stance," he said.

The US dollar held broadly steady in Asian trade ​on Friday and was poised for its steepest weekly gain in more than a year as the escalating conflict in the Middle East drove demand for safe-haven ‌assets.

The euro and yen remained on the back foot as the crisis drove oil prices ever higher, spurring inflation risks in economies dependent on energy imports and upending policy expectations for the Federal Reserve and other central banks.

Earlier hopes for a de-escalation gave way to fresh uncertainty, with Iran warning that Washington would “bitterly regret” the sinking of an Iranian warship. US President Donald Trump said he wanted to be involved in choosing ​Iran’s next head of state after US and Israeli air strikes killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in the early moments of the war.

“If the Middle Eastern conflict ​continues at its current intensity, it’s likely to bring sustained higher inflation, a stronger US dollar, and a vastly reduced chance of Fed ⁠rate cuts,” IG market analyst Tony Sycamore wrote in a note.

The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, was trading a touch lower at 99.03, still on ​course for a 1.4 percent gain this week that would be the most since November 2024.

The euro was little changed at $1.161 and set for a 1.7 percent slide this week. The yen fell ​0.2 percent to 157.83 per dollar. Sterling nudged up 0.02 percent to $1.3358.

The war intensified on Thursday, with US and Israeli jets hitting areas across Iran, and Gulf cities coming under renewed bombardment.

In a phone interview with Reuters, Trump said Mojtaba Khamenei, a son of the late supreme leader who has been considered a favorite to succeed his father, was an unlikely choice.

The greenback was one of a handful of winners in a volatile ​few sessions that have dragged stocks, bonds and, at times, even safe-haven precious metals lower.

“Broadly speaking, we are seeing most clients reduce risk across both G10 and EM currencies,” said ​Nathan Swami, head of FX trading for Japan, Asia North, Asia South and Australia at Citi in Singapore.

“When the conflict started over the weekend, we saw hedgers and custodians buy dollars in many of the onshore ‌markets. Central bank ⁠support has kept Asian FX markets in check for now, but we think more depreciation pressure will build up the longer the conflict lasts.”

Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino said in parliament that the weak yen was pushing up import costs and may affect underlying inflation.

If the Middle East conflict and closure of the Strait of Hormuz last only about a month, the impact on growth in developing Asia would be modest, said Albert Park, chief economist for the Asian Development Bank.

The spike in energy prices from the Middle East war has stoked fears of ​a resurgence in inflation, with overnight index swaps (OIS) ​showing shifts in rate outlooks for major ⁠central banks.

Banks will have to keep provisions for potential losses before loans turn bad, from January 2028, according to a directive given by Bangladesh Bank (BB), which aims to enable lenders to detect the risk of credit deterioration in advance and enhance transparency in financial reporting.

To identify potential loan losses, banks will be required to classify loans based on a global standard -- the International Financial Reporting Standard 9 (IFRS 9). It specifies how an entity should classify and measure financial assets, financial liabilities and some contracts to buy or sell non-financial items.

In a circular yesterday, BB introduced guidelines for the loan loss framework based on IFRS 9.

Under the guidelines, banks will be required to apply the IFRS 9-based Expected Credit Loss (ECL) model to funded and non-funded credit facilities from January 1, 2028. The system will later be extended to other financial instruments from January 1, 2029.

Under the new framework, loans will be classified into three stages based on changes in credit risk: performing loans (Stage 1), loans with a significant increase in risk (Stage 2), and credit-impaired loans (Stage 3).

Provisions will be calculated based on either 12-month or lifetime expected credit losses, depending on the stage. A provision against loans is an expense set aside by banks from their earnings to cover anticipated losses from unpaid or defaulted loans.

The new rules will also extend provisioning requirements to off-balance-sheet exposures such as loan commitments, bank guarantees and unused credit lines, enabling banks to assess risks more comprehensively.

Currently, banks follow a rule-based loan classification and provisioning system, which relies on the “incurred-loss” approach -- where provisions are typically made after loans show clear signs of deterioration.

The IFRS 9 framework will shift the system to a forward-looking model, requiring banks to estimate potential credit losses in advance rather than waiting for borrowers to default.

Lenders will also have to account for macroeconomic indicators such as economic growth, inflation and interest rate trends when assessing credit risk.

Banks will need to upgrade their data infrastructure and risk-modelling systems to implement the framework, while the central bank will provide regulatory guidance and supervisory support to ensure a smooth transition, central bank officials said.

Industry insiders said that the successful implementation of IFRS 9 would make the banking sector more resilient and attractive to foreign investors by strengthening international confidence.

Country’s overall economic activity gained momentum in February, with the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rising to 55.7, indicating a faster pace of expansion compared with the previous month.

The Bangladesh PMI February report, released on Sunday by the Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce and Industry (MCCI), Dhaka and Policy Exchange Bangladesh (PEB), showed the index increased by 1.8 points from January.Bangladesh economic trends

The PMI is designed to provide timely insights into the country’s economic conditions to help businesses, investors and policymakers make informed decisions. The index was developed by MCCI and Policy Exchange Bangladesh with support from the UK Government and technical assistance from the Singapore Institute of Purchasing & Materials Management.

According to the report, stronger growth in agriculture, manufacturing and services drove the overall expansion, while the construction sector returned to contraction during the month.

The agriculture sector recorded its sixth consecutive month of expansion, with faster growth in new business and business activity. Input costs and order backlogs also returned to expansion, though employment in the sector continued to contract at a faster pace.

Manufacturing maintained expansion for the 18th straight month, with growth accelerating in February. Key indicators including new orders, factory output, imports, input prices and supplier deliveries remained in expansion. However, new exports, finished goods and employment continued to contract, while order backlogs reverted to contraction.

The construction sector slipped back into contraction after expanding in January. New business, employment and order backlogs declined, although construction activity and input costs showed expansion.Maps

Meanwhile, the services sector registered its 17th consecutive month of expansion, with faster growth across new business, business activity, employment, input costs and order backlogs.

The future business index pointed to continued expansion across all major sectors—agriculture, manufacturing, construction and services—indicating positive business expectations in the coming months.

Businesses surveyed in the report noted a degree of seasonal optimism ahead of Ramadan and Eid-ul-Fitr, which is expected to boost demand, particularly in services and retail. However, firms also highlighted persistent pressure from rising input costs, including raw materials, labour and utilities.

Dr M Masrur Reaz, Chairman and CEO of Policy Exchange Bangladesh, said the February PMI suggests a modest increase in economic activity, supported by stronger demand in agriculture and services linked to Ramadan-related consumption.

He also warned that escalating military tensions in the Middle East could pose downside risks to Bangladesh’s growth outlook.

Despite the seasonal boost in demand, the report noted that broader growth prospects remain constrained by persistent inflationary pressure, sector-specific challenges and external economic risks.

Bangladesh’s stock market today recorded its steepest single-day decline in six years amid concerns over energy supply linked to the escalating conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran in the Middle East.

The broad index, DSEX, of the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) plunged 231 points, or 4.42 percent, to close the day at 5,008.

Of the traded stocks, the prices of 371 issues declined as investors rushed to sell, while only 10 advanced and the rest remained unchanged.

In March 2020, amid fears over the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, investors witnessed three major declines within a span of 10 days.

The first had occurred on March 9, when the index dropped 6.5 percent. This was followed by another fall of 5.0 percent on March 16, and a further decline of 4.5 percent on March 18.

Dhaka stocks plunged amid investors’ jittery over energy security as US-Isarel war with Iran raises concerns of a prolonged hit to global energy markets.

The DSEX, the benchmark index of the Dhaka Stock Exchange, plunged 2.75 percent, or 144.17 points, to 5,096.65 as of 12:30 pm.

The market dipped just after opening at 10 am, and the benchmark index fell to as low as 5060 points at 12.01 pm. Later, it recovered.

Turnover at the DSE stood at Tk 335.43 crore. Among the traded shares, 25 gained, 344 dropped, and 16 remained unchanged.

“Energy is a key input for factories, and fears have grown among investors that the intensifying Iran war may affect fuel supply,” said a market analyst on anonymity.
Investors fear it could hamper production at listed firms, he added.
The Chittagong Stock Exchange also fell. The CASPI, the major index of the port city bourse, fell 347 points, or 2.37 percent, to 14,447.

Flourish Garments Bangladesh Co Ltd, a China (Hong Kong)-based company, will invest $15.34 million to set up a high-end garment manufacturing factory at the Bepza Economic Zone (Bepza EZ) in Mirsharai, Chattogram.

The factory will annually produce four million pieces of garments, including fleece jackets, soft-shell jackets, down jackets, cotton coats, leather jackets, underwear, T-shirts, polo shirts, shorts and parkas.

The product range will also include long pants, ski suits, ski pants, windproof jackets, fishing suits, hiking suits, yoga suits, running suits, jeans, knitted shorts, faux leather clothing, deer-skin velvet clothing, golf clothing and casual skirts.

The investment will create job opportunities for 1,988 Bangladeshi nationals.

Md Tanvir Hossain, executive director (investment promotion) of the Bangladesh Export Processing Zones Authority (Bepza), and Han Junxiao, managing director of Flourish Garments Bangladesh Co Ltd, signed the agreement at the Bepza Complex in Dhaka yesterday, according to a press release.

Major General Mohammad Moazzem Hossain, executive chairman of Bepza, attended the programme. Speaking at the signing ceremony, Hossain assured the company of Bepza’s full support to ensure smooth and successful business operations in the zone.

He noted that Bepza continues to expand its facilities and develop new zones to accommodate growing investor interest and further strengthen Bangladesh’s export-oriented industrial base.

The Bepza executive chairman also urged the new investor to encourage and attract more high-quality and responsible investors to Bepza zones, contributing to sustainable industrial growth and export diversification in Bangladesh.

Abdullah Al Mamun, member (engineering); ANM Foyzul Haque, member (finance); Samir Biswas, executive director (administration), and ASM Anwar Parvez, executive director (public relations), along with senior officials of Bepza and representatives of the company, were also present.

US retail gasoline and diesel prices are soaring as the U.S.-Israel war with Iran constrains oil and fuel exports, which could be a political test for President Donald Trump's Republican Party ahead ​of midterm elections in November.

Fuel prices jumped more than 10 percent this week as oil rose above $90 a barrel, its highest in years, adding pain at the ‌pump for consumers already strained by inflation. Trump on Thursday shrugged off higher gasoline prices in an interview with Reuters, opens new tab, saying "if they rise, they rise."

The president had vowed to lower energy prices and unleash U.S. oil and gas drilling during his second term, but much of his tenure has been marked by volatility and uncertainty amid shifts in policies like tariffs and geopolitical turmoil. The US is the world's largest oil producer. It is a major exporter ​but also imports millions of barrels a day since it is the world's largest oil consumer.

As of Friday, the national average prices for regular gasoline stood at $3.32 a ​gallon, up 11 percent from a week ago and the highest since September 2024, according to data from the motorists association AAA. Diesel was at $4.33, ⁠up 15 percent from a week ago, surging to the highest since November 2023.

US motorists in parts of the Midwest and the South, including states that supported Trump, have ​seen some of the steepest increases in fuel costs since the conflict in Iran started.

In Georgia, a swing state, average retail gasoline prices rose 40.1 cents a gallon over the past week, ​according to fuel tracking site GasBuddy.

Andrenna McDaniel, a healthcare insurance worker in South Fulton, Georgia, said she was surprised to see prices skyrocket overnight.

“They jumped up so quickly," she said on Friday, adding that she does not agree with the war at all.

McDaniel, a Democrat, said that for now she is only driving for the most important things, and feels lucky that she works from home so she does not have to drive as ​much as other people do.

Georgia voted for Donald Trump in the 2024 election.

Trump voter Richard Soule, 69, a US Air Force veteran and a retired firefighter, said a little pain at the pump ​is worth Trump's efforts to protect America.

Gasoline prices are displayed at a gas station price display, in Carlsbad, California

Gasoline prices are displayed at a gas station price display, in Carlsbad, California, US, March 3, 2026. REUTERS/Mike Blake/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab

"When President Trump went in there and bombed out their nuclear, and they just thumbed their nose at it, I believe he did the right thing at the right ‌time," Soule said ⁠on Friday as he filled up his Ford F-150 truck in Marietta, Georgia.

Other states, including Indiana and West Virginia have seen prices rise by 44.3 cents and 43.9 cents, respectively.

PRICES MAY RISE FURTHER

More pain may be on the way, analysts said, as oil prices continue to trend upward. On Friday, US oil futures settled at $90.90 a barrel, up nearly $10 and the biggest single-day rise since April 2020.

“Given current market conditions, the national average price of gasoline could climb toward $3.50 to $3.70 per gallon in the coming days if oil continues rising and supply disruptions persist,” GasBuddy analyst Patrick De ​Haan said.

The disruptions in the Middle East and ​the Strait of Hormuz, a key trade ⁠conduit, have boosted demand for US oil abroad, which in turn has driven up prices for domestic refiners too.

“The US has weaned itself off of its dependence on Middle Eastern crude, but obviously Asian refineries, and to a lesser extent, European refineries have not,” Denton Cinquegrana, chief oil ​analyst with OPIS.

“That’s what you’re seeing happen in the spot market, because the demand for US exports rise, and so the price rise."

Seasonal ​factors could add further ⁠pressure. Gasoline prices typically go up in the spring and peak in the summer due to higher gasoline demand and production of summer-blend gasoline, which is more costly to produce.

Diesel fuel saw an even more aggressive jump since Iran began retaliating against US and Israeli strikes, significantly disrupting shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.

Global diesel inventories have remained in tight supply due to heavy demand for heating and power generation ⁠during a ​prolonged winter in the US and other parts of the world and a structural tightness of refining capacity.

Sticker prices ​of everything from food to furniture go up when the cost of diesel goes up, as the fuel is mainly used in freight transportation, manufacturing, agriculture, and global shipping, analysts said.

“In a world where buzzword seems to be 'affordability', that is ​certainly not going to help," Cinquegrana said.

The benchmark index of the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) suffered its steepest single-day fall in six years today (8 March) as escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East triggered panic selling across the market.

The DSEX index plunged 231 points, or 4.42%, to close at 5,008, hitting a two-month low and marking the biggest one-day decline since the Covid-19 pandemic era. The previous steepest fall was recorded on 9 March 2020, when the index dropped 279 points during global market turmoil caused by the pandemic.

The blue-chip DS30 index also came under heavy pressure, losing 91 points, or 4.55%, to settle at 1,919.

The sharp correction reflected widespread selling as investors rushed to cut losses amid growing uncertainty over global energy markets and the potential economic fallout for Bangladesh.

Market breadth was overwhelmingly negative. Of the traded issues, 371 declined, while only 10 advanced and nine remained unchanged, illustrating the scale of the sell-off.

Despite the slump in prices, trading activity increased as investors scrambled to exit positions. Turnover rose 16% to Tk532 crore during the session.

The panic-driven fall also wiped out a significant portion of market value. The overall market capitalisation of the Dhaka bourse declined by Tk13,400 crore to Tk6.84 lakh crore in a single trading day.

Major banking and blue-chip stocks exerted strong downward pressure on the index. Among the biggest draggers were BRAC Bank, Islami Bank, Square Pharmaceuticals, City Bank and BAT Bangladesh, which collectively accounted for a large share of the index's decline.

Negative sentiment also spilled over to the port city's bourse. At the Chittagong Stock Exchange PLC, the CSCX index fell 255 points, or 2.81%, to close at 8,805, while the CASPI index dropped 419 points, or 2.83%, to settle at 14,405. Turnover at the exchange plunged 60% to Tk16.37 crore, reflecting a sharp contraction in trading activity.

According to the daily market review by EBL Securities Limited, the capital market continued to witness a bloodbath, with no sign of relief for investors as pessimism surrounding the escalating Middle East conflict intensified.

The brokerage said relentless bearish sentiment gripped the market from the opening bell of the week's first trading session, prompting panic-stricken investors to dump holdings to minimise further losses in their already battered portfolios.

Selling pressure persisted throughout the session, leading to widespread price corrections across most sectors and leaving overall market sentiment deeply uncertain.

The latest fall extended the market's losing streak to four consecutive trading sessions. During this period, the benchmark index has shed a total of 526 points, while the market capitalisation of listed companies has declined by nearly Tk30,000 crore.

The downturn has been largely attributed to rising geopolitical risks following reported strikes involving the US and Israel against Iran, heightening fears of a broader conflict in the Middle East. Investors worry that any escalation could disrupt global energy supplies and significantly raise oil and gas prices.

Moniruzzaman, managing director of Prime Bank Securities, told TBS that the conflict has already pushed global oil and gas prices higher, raising concerns that Bangladesh's import bill could increase substantially.

He warned that disruptions to fuel imports could affect power generation and industrial production, particularly as the country approaches peak electricity demand during the summer months. A slowdown in industrial activity, combined with rising energy costs, could further intensify inflationary pressures.

Amid such uncertainty, investors opted for caution, triggering broad-based selling across nearly all sectors of the market. Moniruzzaman added that trading is likely to remain volatile in the coming sessions, depending on developments in the Middle East and movements in global energy markets.

Investor anxiety was further fuelled by recent domestic developments. On Sunday, the Bangladesh Energy Regulatory Commission increased the price of Jet A-1 aviation fuel for March, setting the rate for domestic flights at Tk112.41 per litre.

Market insiders said fears of a broader fuel price hike are spreading as global energy prices rise amid supply disruptions. Reports that energy exporters such as Qatar, Oman and Kuwait have declared force majeure on certain shipments have heightened concerns about Bangladesh's fuel imports.

They also noted that scenes of vehicles queuing at filling stations amid fears of potential shortages have further unsettled investors, contributing to panic in the stock market.

Analysts said the situation has been compounded by the lack of clear policy direction to stabilise the market. While several countries have introduced tax cuts on fuel or support measures for financial markets to cushion the shock, investors in Bangladesh are still waiting for concrete steps to restore confidence in the capital market.

Despite a steep fall in the benchmark indices last week amid Middle East tensions, several Z-category stocks – commonly considered junk shares – dominated the gainers' chart on the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE).

Premier Leasing emerged as the top gainer of the week, surging 44.44% to close at Tk2.60. Fareast Finance, FAS Finance and Peoples Leasing each rose 41.18% to Tk2.40, while International Leasing advanced 37.50% to Tk2.20.

Other notable gainers included Familytex, which climbed 31.82% to Tk2.90, Tung Hai Knitting rose 30.77% to Tk3.40, and Nurani Dyeing gained 29.63% to Tk3.50. Generation Next increased 25% to Tk3.50, while Appollo Ispat advanced 24.14% to close the week at Tk3.60.

However, all the companies that led the weekly gainers' chart are currently loss-making, according to market data. Several of them are also facing severe operational challenges.

Market information from the Dhaka bourse shows that Familytex, Tung Hai Knitting, Nurani Dyeing, Generation Next and Appollo Ispat are currently out of operation.

A number of the top gainers are non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs), many of which are struggling with weak financial conditions and potential liquidation risks.

Market insiders said investors largely targeted low-priced stocks during the week, regardless of their financial performance or operational status. They added that speculation surrounding the future of troubled NBFIs has also fuelled interest in these shares.

Earlier, the central bank had initiated steps to liquidate several weak and loss-making NBFIs. However, following the change in government, investors appear to be betting that these institutions may avoid liquidation. Driven by such expectations, many traders have been buying these stocks in hopes of booking short-term gains.

Bangladesh has moved quickly to avert potential fuel and gas shortages triggered by the Middle East war, securing critical imports from alternative markets to keep national energy demand met throughout March.

Officials said the government finalised imports of 2.80 lakh tonnes of refined diesel from Malaysia, Singapore and other sources, ensuring supply for the rest of the month.

Two LNG shipments from Singapore have also been secured as contingency, while Bloomberg reported that an LNG cargo from Qatar is en route to Bangladesh, easing fears of disruption.

Concerns had mounted that the conflict involving Iran, the United States and Israel could destabilise global energy supply chains, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route for Bangladesh's crude oil imports from Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

Iran has since clarified that it will not obstruct vessels from other nations, except those of the US and Israel, allowing Bangladesh's shipments to continue.

'No reason for panic'

Energy and Power Minister Iqbal Hasan Mahmud Tuku told reporters after meeting Prime Minister Tarique Rahman that reserves remain sufficient. "Two more oil tankers will arrive on 9 March. There is no reason for panic," he said, urging consumers not to queue overnight at petrol pumps.

Simultaneously, international news agency Bloomberg has reported that an LNG cargo from Qatar is currently en route to Bangladesh, a development that is expected to alleviate fears of a gas shortage.

Officials said Bangladesh had 1,15,473 tonnes of diesel in stock as of 4 March, enough to meet demand for about nine days.

Monir Hossain Chowdhury, joint secretary (operations) at the Energy and Mineral Resources Division, told TBS that a significant portion of the diesel is already en route to Bangladesh, while the rest is being loaded and will arrive shortly.

"Therefore, the amount of diesel required for March has already been confirmed. There should be no shortage if consumers refrain from panic buying," he said.

Bangladesh's monthly diesel demand is 3.80 lakh tonnes, he said, adding, "We now have over 1 lakh tonnes of diesel in stock. Besides, 2.80 lakh tonnes of refined diesel imports have been finalised."

Monir further said, "A significant portion of this is being imported from Malaysia and Singapore. Some of this fuel is already en route to Bangladesh, while further shipments are currently being loaded and are expected to arrive shortly."

He said that there is an existing agreement to import 1.80 lakh tonnes of diesel from India each month, and that supply is currently arriving on a regular basis.

"However, due to the storage capacity at Parbatipur being limited to 5,000 tonnes, it is not possible to increase imports from the neighbouring country at this time, even if desired."

Monir said, "We have agreements with various countries for the import of an additional 1 lakh tonnes of diesel. None of those countries have yet indicated that they would be unable to meet the supply.

"Even if they fail to deliver, we have alternative suppliers available, and we will be able to procure imports from these backup sources if the need arises."

Supply at pumps

However, transport operators in Dhaka reported that petrol pumps are supplying diesel in limited quantities due to increased demand.

Some long-distance bus and truck operators said they were receiving less fuel than required, forcing them to reduce the number of trips.

Monir Hossain Chowdhury said, "As long as no one buys excess diesel, there is no reason for a shortage at the pumps."

No crisis for other fuels

Stocks of other fuels also remain adequate. As of 4 March, the country currently has 28,152 tonnes of octane, sufficient for around 15 days, and 17,364 tonnes of petrol, enough for roughly eight days, officials said.

Although Bangladesh mainly produces octane domestically, a small portion is imported to supplement supply. Officials said around 40,000 tonnes of petrol and octane are expected to arrive later this month to stabilise supply further.

Furnace oil reserves currently stand at 66,192 tonnes, enough to meet power plants' demand for approximately 59 days, suggesting that electricity generation is unlikely to be disrupted.

Officials also confirmed that the jet fuel supply remains stable. Bangladesh had 41,084 tonnes of jet fuel in stock as of 4 March, sufficient for 36 days, while another 20,000 tonnes are expected to arrive between 22 and 25 March.

The number of flights departing from Bangladesh to the Middle East has significantly decreased, which in turn has reduced the demand for jet fuel. Consequently, there is no anticipated shortage of jet fuel.

Kamrul Islam, GM (PR) of US-Bangla Airlines, told TBS, "So far, we have not yet seen the impact of the war on jet fuel. However, we are concerned that if the war continues in this manner, the issues of a potential jet fuel shortage or price hikes could emerge."

Gas scare managed

To conserve the potential gas, the government has temporarily halted gas supply to all but one fertiliser factory, while sufficient fertiliser stocks remain available.

So far, there have been no major reports of gas shortages affecting households, industries or filling stations.

The Bloomberg on Friday (6 March) reported that Qatar appears to have loaded its first liquefied natural gas cargoes after the widening conflict in the Middle East forced it to halt fuel production and declare an unprecedented force majeure to buyers.

The vessel Al Ghashamiya loaded this week at the nation's Ras Laffan export terminal and is now waiting in the Persian Gulf, and a second tanker, the Lebrethah, departed from the terminal Friday, according to Bloomberg.

The Lebrethah is signalling Bangladesh as its next destination, with an estimated arrival on 14 March, but the trip still depends on navigation in the crucial Strait of Hormuz, which is effectively closed for commercial ships in the wake of the Iran war.

Four LNG, two LPG vessels head to Chattogram

Four vessels carrying about 2.47 lakh tonnes of LNG and two ships transporting nearly 35,000 tonnes of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) are heading to Chattogram Port after crossing the Strait of Hormuz before tensions escalated in the Middle East, easing concerns over any immediate gas supply disruption when the country is going through a panic of fuel shortage.

4 LNG, 2 LPG vessels that crossed Strait of Hormuz before Middle East conflict now headed to Ctg

Altogether, 15 vessels carrying LNG, LPG and cement raw materials are now arriving at Chattogram.

Of them, 12 have already reached the port while three more are expected within this week. The ships are carrying nearly 7.50 lakh tonnes of cargo in total.

Two LNG carriers have already arrived at Chattogram carrying about 1.26 lakh tonnes of LNG from Qatar.

Two more vessels are scheduled to reach the port's outer anchorage tomorrow and Wednesday, respectively.

Together, the four ships are bringing roughly 2.47 lakh tonnes of LNG to Bangladesh.

An LPG carrier was scheduled to arrive at Chattogram yesterday carrying 22,172 tonnes of LPG from Sohar Port in Oman.

Another vessel, carrying 19,316 tonnes of LPG from the same port, had already reached the port before the war.

The two ships together are delivering nearly 35,000 tonnes of LPG for Meghna Fresh LPG, a concern of Meghna Group of Industries.

The war in the Middle East has stalled more than 1,000 TEUs (twenty-foot equivalent units) of weekly exports from Chattogram Port after major shipping lines suspended bookings, leaving exporters facing mounting storage costs and uncertainty.

Containers carrying potatoes, agro-products, frozen foods and ready-made garments are now stranded at private inland container depots (ICDs), as exporters wait for shipping routes to reopen while absorbing additional depot and plugging charges.

One of the first casualties of the disruption is a seasonal potato shipment prepared for export to Dubai.

After processing and packaging, a 28-tonne consignment from SR Impex Ltd arrived in Chattogram from Bogura on 1 March. It was scheduled to be shipped to Jebel Ali port the following day. But the cargo never left the depot.

The container is now sitting at a private ICD after shipping lines abruptly stopped accepting bookings to Middle Eastern destinations due to security risks.

"While we were loading the cargo, the shipping line suddenly informed us they would no longer accept bookings and cancelled the slot," said Mohammad Forkan, managing director of SR Impex Ltd and general secretary of the Fresh Food and Fruits Exporters Association.

Infograph: TBS
Infograph: TBS

"We somehow arranged another container from a depot and plugged it in to preserve the potatoes. Now we are paying plugging and depot charges just to store them. We do not know what will happen next," he said.

He added, "Every week, around 450 tonnes of potatoes, another 450 tonnes of agro and food products, and nearly 300 tonnes of frozen foods are exported to Middle Eastern countries through the Chattogram port and the airport. Including RMG and other exports, the total value reaches around $17 million. Most of these shipments are now disrupted."

Exporters fear the disruption could deepen if the conflict drags on, squeezing Bangladesh's trade and raising costs across multiple industries.

Garment exporters fear missing Eid market

The disruption is also worrying exporters in Bangladesh's largest export sector – ready-made garments.

Although the Middle East accounts for only over $800 million, or roughly 2% of Bangladesh's apparel exports, the market becomes crucial during the Eid shopping season.

Exporters say the conflict erupted just as shipments normally begin for the festive market.

"We have already purchased raw materials, produced goods and placed orders," said garment exporter Abdus Salam.

"Our buyers need these products to stock their showrooms for Eid. Normally, shipments begin at the start of Ramadan. But the war started exactly at that time."

He added, "Our goods cannot be shipped and their showrooms are empty. At the same time, our workers expect Eid bonuses and salaries. We are facing a very difficult situation."

Shipping lines suspend bookings

Shipping companies confirm that container bookings to many Middle Eastern destinations have been suspended.

Azmir Hossain Chowdhury, head of operations at MSC Shipping, said the company had received instructions not to accept bookings for the region and had suspended bookings from 2 March.

"Other shipping lines are doing the same. As a result, weekly exports of around 800 to 1,200 TEUs to Middle Eastern countries are being affected," he said.

Freight costs from China rise

The crisis is also adding pressure on Bangladesh's import supply chain.

With maritime routes facing disruption, freight rates from China — the main source of raw materials for the country's industries — have already started rising.

Industry insiders say shipping costs from Chinese ports have increased by roughly $300 per container in recent days.

Rakibul Alam, a former vice-president of the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association, said the higher freight cost is becoming a major concern for importers.

"For high-cube containers, freight from China has increased by around $500 in some cases," he said.

"Chinese ports have resumed exports after earlier disruptions and our import flow is picking up again. But the biggest challenge right now is the higher shipping cost."

Major carriers restrict services

Global shipping companies have begun tightening operations in the conflict-affected region.

Shipping giant Maersk has suspended all vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz since 1 March and stopped accepting new bookings to several destinations, including the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar and Oman.

COSCO Shipping Lines has also temporarily suspended cargo services to certain ports, including Qatar, Bahrain, Iraq and Kuwait, due to security concerns and navigation restrictions.

However, COSCO said operations would continue to ports that do not require vessels to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, such as Jeddah in Saudi Arabia and the UAE ports of Khor Fakkan and Fujairah.

Authorities have shut five of the country’s six urea fertiliser factories as a precaution amid fears of gas supply disruptions caused by the widening war in the Middle East and Iran’s closure of the Hormuz Strait, a key global energy route.

From Wednesday, gas supplies to the urea plants, including one privately owned unit, were suspended as part of an energy rationing, said officials at the state-run Bangladesh Chemical Industries Corporation (BCIC).

The corporation runs seven fertiliser factories, including four producing urea.

The factories affected are Ghorashal Polash Fertiliser Public Ltd Company, Chittagong Urea Fertiliser Factory Ltd (CUFL), Jamuna Fertiliser Company Ltd, Ashuganj Fertiliser & Chemical Company Ltd, and the privately run Karnaphuli Fertiliser Company Limited (KAFCO). Of these, production has remained suspended in the Ashuganj factory for months.

Officials say that now only the Shahjalal Fertiliser Factory remains operational, though even this may not continue for long.

However, two state-owned non-urea factories that do not rely on gas remain open.

The country meets nearly 30 percent of its gas demand, equivalent to 2,650 million cubic feet per day (mmcfd), through imported liquefied natural gas (LNG) as domestic output continues to fall short.

Officials said about 197 million cubic feet of gas per day are required to run the five urea factories at full capacity. The factories were already suffering from an inconsistent gas supply before the shutdown.

The suspension of urea output comes at a critical time for farmers planting Boro, the main dry season rice crop, which accounts for more than half of Bangladesh’s annual 40 million tonnes of grain.

Bangladesh requires more than 26 lakh tonnes of urea each year. Around 40 percent is produced locally, while the remainder is imported from Middle Eastern countries including Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar.

Two-thirds of the annual urea demand falls between November and March, mainly for Boro rice cultivation.

Contacted, Md Moniruzzaman, director of production and research at BCIC, said the corporation currently holds 468,000 tonnes of urea in stock, enough to cover demand for the rest of the Boro season.

“So, there will be no shortage of the fertiliser during the current Boro rice cultivation season,” he said.

The BCIC officials said they were asked to keep production shut for 15 days. The closed factories together have a total daily capacity of around 7,100 tonnes. This means more than 1 lakh tonnes of urea production will be affected.

Although the target for fertiliser output in the 2025-26 fiscal year was 10 lakh tonnes, only 550,000 tonnes have been produced in the eight months to February, according to officials.

One of them expressed doubts about meeting the target in the remaining four months.

Engineer Syed Abu Naser Md Saleh, general manager of the engineering services division at Karnaphuli Gas Distribution Company, said that gas supply to the two fertiliser plants has been suspended since Wednesday in line with government instructions.

“Around 70-80 million cubic feet of gas used to be supplied to the two plants,” he said.

Riaz Uddin Ahmed, executive secretary of the Bangladesh Fertiliser Association, said the urea factory closures are unlikely to affect the current Boro season.

Planned imports of non-urea fertiliser for this fiscal year have already been completed, he added.

“So, I see no problem until June-July of this year. We have to be ready for the later months. If the crisis [in the Middle East] lingers, there will be a problem,” he said. “We should start exploring alternative sources to avoid any risk.”

The US-Israeli war with Iran could leave consumers and businesses worldwide facing weeks or months of higher fuel prices even if the week-old conflict ends quickly, as suppliers grapple with damaged facilities, disrupted logistics, and elevated risks to shipping.

The outlook poses a global economic threat and a political vulnerability for US President Donald Trump leading into the midterm elections, with voters sensitive to energy bills and unfavorable to foreign entanglements.

"The market is shifting from pricing pure geopolitical risk to grappling with tangible operational disruption, as refinery shutdowns and export constraints begin to impair crude processing and regional supply flows," JP Morgan analysts said in a research note on Friday.

The conflict has already led to the suspension of around a fifth of global crude and natural gas supply, as Tehran targets ships in the vital Strait of Hormuz between its shores and Oman, and attacks energy infrastructure across the region.

Global oil prices have surged more than 25% since the start of the war, driving up fuel prices for consumers worldwide.

A nearly complete shutdown of the Strait means the region's giant oil producers - Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq and Kuwait - have had to suspend shipments of as much as 140 million barrels of oil - equal to about 1.4 days of global demand - to global refiners.

As a result, oil and gas storage at facilities in the Middle East Gulf are rapidly filling, forcing oil fields in Iraq and Kuwait to cut oil production, with the United Arab Emirates likely to cut next, analysts, traders and sources said.

"At some point soon, everyone will also shut in if vessels do not come," said a ⁠source with a state oil company in the region, who asked not to be named.

Oilfields forced to shut in across the Middle East as a result of the shipping disruptions could take a while to return to normal, said Amir Zaman, head of the Americas commercial team at Rystad Energy.

"The conflict could be ended, but it could take days or weeks or months, depending on the types of fields, age of the field, the type of shut-in that they've had to do before you can get production back up to what it once was," he said.

Iranian forces, meanwhile, are targeting regional energy infrastructure - including refineries and terminals - forcing them to shut down too, with some of those operations badly damaged by attacks and in need of repairs.

Qatar declared force majeure on its huge volumes of gas exports on Wednesday after Iranian drone attacks and it may take at least a month to return to normal production ‌levels, sources told Reuters. Qatar supplies 20% of global LNG.

Saudi Aramco’s mammoth Ras Tanura refinery and crude export terminal, meanwhile, has also closed due to attacks, with no details on damage.

The White House has justified the attack on Iran, saying the country posed an imminent threat to the United States, although it has not provided details. Trump has also said he was concerned about Iran's efforts to obtain a nuclear weapon.

DANGER IN THE STRAIT

A quick end to the war would soothe markets. But a return to pre-war supply and pricing could take weeks or months, depending on the extent of the damage to infrastructure and shipping.

"Considering physical damage due to Iranian strikes, so far we have not seen anything that would be considered structural, although the risk remains as long as the war continues," said Joel Hancock, energy analyst, Natixis CIB.

The biggest question for energy supplies is how and when the Strait of Hormuz will become safe for shipping again. Trump has offered naval escorts to oil tankers and promised US insurance support to vessels in the region.

But safety in the waterway may be elusive, as Iran has the capacity to sustain drone attacks on shipping for months, intelligence and military sources have said.

The conflict could also encourage countries to top up their strategic petroleum reserves in the weeks and months after the conflict ends, by exposing the dangers of thin inventories. That would increase demand for oil and support prices.

GLOBAL ECONOMIC, POLITICAL RISK

In the meantime, the disruption in energy shipments is reverberating through supply chains and economies in import-reliant Asia, which sources 60% of its crude oil from the Middle East.

In India, state-run Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals MRPL.NS declared force majeure on gasoline export cargoes, sources said this week, joining a growing number of refineries in the region unable to fulfill sales contracts due to lack of supply.

At least two refineries in China have cut runs. China, a big supplier to the region, has asked refineries to suspend fuel exports. Thailand has also suspended fuel exports, while Vietnam has suspended crude shipments.

Disruption has given Russia a boost. Prices for Russian crude cargoes have risen as the US has given Indian refiners a 30-day waiver to buy Russian crude to substitute for lost Middle East supply. Washington had pressured India to cut Russian oil imports under the threat of tariffs.

In Japan, the No. 2 global LNG importer, baseload power futures for Tokyo for the fiscal year starting in April jumped more than a third this week on the EEX in anticipation of higher fuel prices. And in Seoul, drivers queued up at petrol stations in anticipation of rising pump prices.

For European consumers, the crisis in gas supplies and the higher prices are a double whammy. The region was hit the hardest by the disruption to gas supplies due to sanctions on Russian energy imports after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022.

Europe turned to LNG imports to substitute for Russian pipeline gas. And Europe now needs to buy 180 more LNG cargoes than it did last year to fill gas storage to the levels needed before next winter.

The supply risks to the United States are fewer, as the country has grown in recent years into the world’s largest oil and gas producer. But US crude and fuel prices rise in tandem with international crude markets, so pump prices for gasoline and diesel are affected even if domestic supply is plentiful.

US average retail gasoline, for example, hit $3.32 a gallon nationally on Friday, up 34 cents over last week, according to AAA. Diesel prices, meanwhile, hit $4.33 a gallon, up from $3.76 a gallon a week ago.

Higher prices at the pump mark a major risk for Trump and his fellow Republicans as they head into midterm elections in November.

"Gasoline prices are psychologically powerful," said Mark Malek, chief investment officer at Siebert Financial. "They are the inflation number that consumers see every single day."