As textile millers and garment exporters remain locked in a bitter dispute over duty-free yarn imports – and the Bangladesh Textile Mills Association (BTMA) has announced an indefinite shutdown of mills – the government is scrambling to avert a potential disruption to RMG exports, which account for about 85% of Bangladesh's total export earnings.

Commerce Secretary Mahbubur Rahman told The Business Standard yesterday that the government recognises the seriousness of the crisis and is exploring possible options.

"The textile industry is facing problems, no doubt. Something has to be done," he said. "We are thinking about what alternatives are possible."

Describing the issue as complex, he added, "We must find a way out. We will try to come up with a solution as quickly as possible."

The commerce secretary noted that multiple stakeholders are involved – including the government, textile mill owners and garment manufacturers – and said their concerns would need to be carefully balanced. However, he did not specify what options were under active consideration.

Shutdown threat ahead of polls

Meanwhile, textile mill owners have threatened to shut down factories from 1 February, citing what they describe as prolonged government inaction in protecting the $23 billion textile industry. The announcement comes at a sensitive time, less than two weeks before the national election scheduled for 12 February.

BTMA President Showkat Aziz Russell formally announced the decision yesterday.

"This is not a threat. The sector will shut down anyway," he said. "This is a crisis, a national crisis."

Russell criticised the pace of policymaking, saying, "In any situation, India can make a decision within a few hours, whereas our government cannot do so even in months."

He also alleged that while the government provides various incentives to the garment sector, textile mill owners do not benefit from them. Instead, he claimed, most of the gains flow to foreign buyers.

According to Russell, under the open costing method any increase in production costs is ultimately passed on to buyers. However, if domestic textile mills collapse, garment manufacturers will be forced to import yarn from India at higher prices in the long run, eroding competitiveness.

Risks to workers, banks and exports

Industry insiders warned that an actual shutdown of textile mills would have far-reaching consequences. More than 10 lakh workers employed in the sector could face uncertainty over wages and benefits, potentially triggering labour unrest.

A halt in yarn production would disrupt the garments supply chain, while difficulties in repaying bank loans could push non-performing loans (NPLs even higher at a time when banks are already under pressure, with NPLs estimated at around 35%.

Economists warn that large-scale closures in the textile sector could add further strain to an economy already grappling with multiple challenges.

Against this backdrop, experts have urged the government to act swiftly to reach an acceptable solution that balances the interests of yarn-producing textile mills and garment exporters.

How the dispute escalated

The conflict intensified after the Ministry of Commerce, responding to a letter from the Bangladesh Trade and Tariff Commission (BTTC), wrote to the National Board of Revenue on 12 January seeking the withdrawal of the existing duty-free yarn import facility under bonded licences.

Garment exporters strongly opposed the move, warning of "tough action" and describing the withdrawal of the facility as "suicidal" for the export-oriented apparel sector.

Amid the backlash, the commerce ministry appeared to step back from its position. Textile mill owners later met the finance adviser on Wednesday, seeking the immediate issuance of an order withdrawing the bonded facility for yarn imports, but received no clear response.
Will commerce ministry step back on yarn duties amid garment exporters' pushback?

In frustration, BTMA held what it described as an "emergency press conference" yesterday to reiterate its shutdown stance.

"The apparel sector contributes 13% to the country's GDP, yet policymakers do not even allocate 13 minutes for the sector's people," Russell said. "Every department is simply passing responsibility to others, like a game of pillow passing."

Reiterating the shutdown threat, he added, "We will shut down no matter what. We do not have the capacity to repay bank loans. Our capital has been reduced by half."

BTMA leaders said mill owners have repeatedly sought either the withdrawal of the bonded facility for yarn imports from India or the introduction of special cash incentives to help the sector survive.

Potential fallout of textile mill shutdowns

Around 10 ‍lakh workers are employed in Bangladesh's textile sector. If these factories are shut down from 1 February, just ahead of the national election, the payment of workers' wages will become uncertain before the polls, potentially triggering labour unrest.

Speaking to The Business Standard after the press conference, Showkat Aziz said, "If mills are shut down, workers will resort to vandalism at factories to demand their wages."

He said textile entrepreneurs are deeply intertwined with the sector. "Textiles are not our only business. We expanded our other businesses around this industry. If textile mills shut down, everything else will also struggle," he said, adding that NPLs would inevitably rise.

"We would survive only if we could exit this business," he added.
How escalating US-EU trade war sparks fears for Bangladesh RMG exports

Professor Mustafizur Rahman, distinguished fellow at the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), said textile mill closures would not only fuel labour unrest but also disrupt raw material supplies for garment exports, while increasing import dependence.

"If large, capital-intensive mills shut down and fail to repay loans, NPLs will rise further," he warned.

Experts suggest alternatives

Dr Mostafa Abid Khan, an international trade expert and former member of the BTTC, said withdrawing bonded facilities would hurt garment exports, but stressed that spinning mills must be sustained as an import-substituting backward linkage industry.

"Any decision must be taken through consultations with all stakeholders and in compliance with World Trade Organization rules," he said, adding that a mechanism should be developed to support spinning mills so they remain competitive.

Mustafizur Rahman said there is no obligation to protect textile mills by withdrawing bonded facilities for garment exporters.

"In line with LDC rules, limited cash compensation or special loan facilities could be provided for a specific period," he said.

He also suggested initiating anti-dumping investigations against India if evidence shows yarn is being exported to Bangladesh at unfairly low prices, which could justify the imposition of duties. Alternatively, import quotas could be considered.

Addressing concerns about WTO violations, he noted that no country has taken to dispute settlement over such measures during LDC status or within three years of graduation, making the risk relatively low.

Yarn import trends

In FY25, Bangladesh imported yarn worth about Tk26,000 crore – more than $2 billion – with over 80% sourced from India. Yarn imports from India have more than doubled over the past three years.

Local entrepreneurs claim Indian government incentives allow exporters to sell yarn to Bangladesh at prices roughly $0.30 lower than domestic prices, leaving local mills unable to compete. As a result, stocks have piled up and some factories are operating at only half their installed capacity.

However, Fazlee Shamim Ehsan, executive president of the Bangladesh Knitwear Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BKMEA), disputed claims of a continuous rise in imports.

"From July to December, imports declined compared to the same period of the previous fiscal year, mainly because garment exports have fallen," he said.

He argued that the core issue is declining competitiveness in the domestic textile sector.

"We all agree the textile sector needs protection," he said. "But it cannot come at the cost of harming garment exporters. If India supports its industry, Bangladesh can consider similar support if necessary."

BGMEA Acting President Salim echoed those concerns last week, warning that blocking imports could create a monopoly, as local mills cannot supply all yarn types, particularly premium varieties.

He said exporters would prefer local sourcing if mills could ensure timely delivery and competitive pricing, and urged the government to support spinning mills through productivity upgrades, incentives and uninterrupted energy supply.

China gets up to a fifth of its imported oil from Iran and another 4% to 5% from Venezuela, often through clandestine channels to skirt United States sanctions — or at least it did before recent disruptions.

US President Donald Trump's move earlier this month to unseat Venezuela's longtime leader, Nicolas Maduro, redirect its oil to the US and impose 25% tariffs on Iran-linked trade has raised serious questions about energy security in the world's second-largest economy.

Oil prices briefly spiked on fears that China's discounted Iranian supplies could be hit, while experts warned that US seizures of Venezuela-linked oil tankers may further constrict flows.

Can China's domestic production fill the gap?

Beijing, meanwhile, has limited room to fall back on its domestic oil production to plug the gap.

As most of China's imported oil runs through the narrow, congested Malacca Strait, Beijing has long treated the route as a strategic vulnerability. The strait, which is patrolled by the US navy, became a potential chokepoint during Trump's first term as bilateral tensions escalated with Washington.

In 2019, President Xi Jinping ordered the ramping up of exploration and refining at home, launching the Seven-Year Action Plan and billions in new investments by China's oil majors CNPC, Sinopec and CNOOC. Those gains, however, have been modest.

Domestic production rose from 3.8 million barrels per day in 2018 to around 4.32 million barrels per day last year. However, even the growth from new wells, including tight shale fracking— tight oil or shale is found in impermeable shale and limestone rock deposits — could only offset the decline of China's giant legacy fields, like Daqing in northeastern Heilongjiang Province and Shengli on the eastern Yellow River Delta.

June Goh, a Singapore-based senior oil market analyst at Sparta Commodities, said the cumulative output growth of 8.9% since 2021 is "huge," surpassing Beijing's target of the equivalent of 4 million barrels a day.

"The recent supply risk serves to prove that what they are doing is right," Goh told DW. But she warned that further production growth was unlikely to be "exponential" as China's oil majors are struggling to discover new reserves.

Other oil sector experts who have closely tracked China's efforts to boost domestic production have described the situation more bluntly.

"[Despite] a huge amount of investment over the past 15 years or more," output has largely been "running to stay still," Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst of the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air, told DW.

Myllyvirta said despite billions of yuan being poured into new oil wells, fracking and offshore projects, domestic oil production "has not budged."

Oil stockpiles will help offset losses from Iran, Venezuela

With domestic output offering little upside, Beijing is leaning more on oil reserves. Since late 2023, Chinese policymakers significantly accelerated the expansion and filling of emergency stockpiles, known as strategic petroleum reserves (SPR). The move was fueled by growing geopolitical tensions following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine and a global surge in energy prices.

China was partly insulated after cutting deals with Iran and Russia to secure heavily discounted crude at below-market rates amid Western sanctions. Moscow became China's top oil supplier until last year, when US sanctions on Russian firms and tankers caused a noticeable drop in flows.

Iran has since filled much of the gap, with nearly all of its exports — up to 2 million barrels per day at one point last year — delivered covertly to China via shadow fleets, ship-to-ship transfers and relabeling to disguise origins and evade tracking.

These stockpiles were increased further in 2025, Reuters news agency reported in October, with 11 new storage sites expected to be operational by early this year.

Goh thinks stockpiling rather than production increases will help China to further boost its energy independence amid likely falling supplies from Iran, Venezuela and Russia.

"China currently has 110 days of cover, which is higher than the OECD target of 90 days," she said, referring to both the SPR and commercial reserves. "They have set a target of 180 days, so efforts to stockpile will now be accelerated given the geopolitical risks."

Renewables, electrification emerge as the safer bet for China

While reserves provide immediate cushioning, longer-term resilience lies in the other measures China has pursued to strengthen energy security. These include rapid electrification and a record build-out of renewable energy.

Beijing has spent the past five years aggressively shifting oil-consuming sectors, including transport and heavy industry, toward electricity. Oil use in the transport sector peaked in 2023, China's largest state oil producer, CNPC, reported last February. The country is upgrading its grid and building ultra-high-voltage lines to carry power from remote generation hubs to coastal industrial centers.

Electric vehicles (EV) now account for well over half of new car sales, and entire city bus fleets in Shenzhen, Guangzhou and dozens of provincial capitals have already gone fully electric. The rapid rollout of more than a million EV charging stations nationwide has helped cap growth in gasoline demand even as the economy expands.

In 2024 and 2025 alone, China added more solar capacity than the rest of the world combined, alongside record wind installations across Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang and coastal provinces.

"China's wind and solar capacity growth has been more than 300 gigawatts per year over the past three years and is likely to have reached 400 gigawatts last year," Myllyvirta noted.

Although these efforts can't eliminate the country's reliance on imported crude, they do blunt the impact of possible disruptions from heavily-sanctioned oil suppliers.

As China's leaders prepare to unveil the next 5-year plan in March — the blueprint that will steer national economic and energy priorities until the early 2030s — further investments in domestic fossil fuel production, electrification and renewables are expected to feature heavily.

"For the next 5-year plan, China has a wide range of possible targets," Myllyvirta said. "Combined with [additional oil] storage, maintaining that rate of renewable growth could substitute a lot of gas or coal in power generation. Electrification can replace all fossil fuels in industry, transportation and buildings."

A striking contradiction played out on the Dhaka Stock Exchange last week. Even as Bangladesh Bank prepared to wind up nine non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs) deemed non-viable, shares of several of those very firms surged spectacularly, fuelled not by recovery hopes but by a wave of speculative trading chasing quick gains.

Stocks of Fareast Finance, Premier Leasing, International Leasing, FAS Finance, Peoples Leasing, Prime Finance and Bangladesh Industrial Finance Company (BIFC) jumped more than 50% to over 60% within a week.

Market analysts said the sharp rise had little to do with fundamentals and was instead fuelled by short-term traders exploiting volatility triggered by recent regulatory announcements.

The rally followed Bangladesh Bank Governor Ahsan H Mansur's statement that nine NBFIs would be declared non-viable and placed under liquidation after independent audits.

He made the remarks at a press briefing at the central bank headquarters on 5 January, saying independent auditors would be appointed to determine the actual financial condition of the troubled institutions.

The nine NBFIs set for liquidation are FAS Finance, BIFC, Premier Leasing, Fareast Finance, GSP Finance, Prime Finance, Aviva Finance, Peoples Leasing and International Leasing.

Immediately after the announcement, several of the stocks witnessed panic selling, as investors feared a complete wipeout of shareholder value. That sentiment soon reversed, however, with aggressive speculative buying pushing prices to upper circuit limits on multiple trading sessions.

In an interview with The Business Standard, Governor Mansur said the government had agreed to provide funds to safeguard individual depositors under the newly enacted Bank Resolution Ordinance 2025.

He said individual depositors would get back their principal, though interest would not be paid, while institutional depositors would depend on recoveries from the liquidation process.

Bangladesh Bank will appoint liquidators to assess assets and liabilities, recover defaulted loans and sell properties and investments before distributing proceeds among creditors as per law.

Market rides broader optimism

The speculative surge in weak NBFI stocks came amid a broader rally on the Dhaka Stock Exchange.

The benchmark DSEX advanced 140 points, or 2.84%, to 5,099 last week, while the DS30 index rose 50 points, or 2.62%, to close at 1,962.

Market breadth remained strong, with 309 stocks gaining against 41 losers. Average daily turnover jumped 51% week-on-week to Tk575 crore, and total market capitalisation rose by Tk6,300 crore.

EBL Securities, in its weekly market review, said the market regained recovery momentum on the back of broad-based participation and renewed buying interest in undervalued blue-chip stocks.

The market started the week on a strong note and sustained positive momentum for three consecutive sessions. Although some profit booking was seen toward the end of the week, it did not materially weaken the bullish sentiment.

Insurance stocks saw notable accumulation following recent sector developments, while pharmaceuticals and banking also drew strong investor interest. Most sectors ended the week in positive territory.

Bangladesh's insurance companies paid out less than half of the premiums collected in the first nine months of 2025, raising concerns over mounting unpaid claims and eroding public confidence.

According to official data, between January and September 2025, insurance companies collected approximately Tk4,600 crore in premiums from policyholders. However, during the same period, claims worth only Tk2,221 crore were settled – equivalent to 48% of the total premium income.

At the same time, total outstanding claims across the sector stood at Tk9,624 crore, highlighting a widening gap between premium collection and claims settlement.

Analysis of data from the Insurance Development and Regulatory Authority (Idra) shows that the sector's average claims settlement rate during the nine-month period was just 23%. In life insurance, the rate stood at 35.18%, while in non-life insurance it was only 7.55%.

Of the Tk4,600 crore in total premiums collected, life insurers accounted for Tk3,050 crore and paid Tk2,106 crore in claims. Non-life insurers collected Tk1,547 crore but settled claims of only Tk275 crore.

The figures indicate that although policyholders continue to pay premiums regularly, insurers are disbursing significantly less in claims, causing unpaid liabilities to accumulate over time. As a result, the overall claims settlement ratio is declining at an alarming pace.

A key indicator in assessing insurers' financial health is the Incurred Claim Ratio (ICR), which measures the proportion of claims paid relative to premiums earned within a specific period. For example, if a health insurer collects Tk1 crore in premiums and pays Tk80 lakh in claims, its ICR would be 80%, with the remaining Tk20 lakh typically covering operating expenses and profit.

In the insurance industry, an ICR between 60% and 90% is generally considered healthy, reflecting a balance between customer service and financial sustainability. Companies within this range tend to enjoy higher customer trust and long-term stability.

However, when the ICR falls below 50%, it suggests that an insurer is paying out relatively low claims compared to premium income. While this may boost short-term profitability, it raises serious concerns about service standards and fair settlement practices, potentially undermining public confidence.

Industry insiders note that newly registered insurers often report lower claims ratios in their early years, as most policies have not yet matured. Over time, as policy terms are completed, maturity and death claims rise, naturally putting the ICR at a lower level.

In Bangladesh, particularly in the life insurance segment, several established companies have historically maintained higher claims payouts due to a large number of mature policies. However, sector observers warn that many firms are now deviating from this normal trajectory.

"There appears to be growing reluctance among some insurers to settle claims promptly, even as they aggressively collect premiums," said a former chief executive officer of an insurance company, speaking on condition of anonymity.

He added that if policyholders' funds are not paid out in claims, they should ordinarily remain within the company's life fund or investment portfolio. Yet, in reality, both life funds and investment volumes are reportedly declining.

"This raises legitimate questions about how the collected premiums are being utilised," he said. "If the funds are invested internally, why are adequate returns not being generated? And if profits are insufficient, why are claims regularly delayed?"

According to him, weak oversight and limited accountability have allowed such practices to persist, leaving policyholders financially distressed and further eroding trust in the sector.

In a recent move aimed at restoring discipline and transparency, Idra suspended licences of individual agents operating in the non-life insurance segment, effective from 1 January. Earlier, acting on a proposal from the Bangladesh Insurance Association, the regulator set the commission rate for individual agents in non-life insurance at 0%.

Sector insiders believe that proper implementation of these reforms could help revive business growth, improve governance standards and ultimately raise claims settlement rates, thereby rebuilding public confidence in the insurance market.

Walton Hi-Tech Industries posted a 19.34% year-on-year rise in profit in the first half of FY26, driven by lower raw material costs, a stable exchange rate, tighter control over production expenses and strong management strategies.

According to the company's latest quarterly financial statements, the leading local electronics manufacturer reported a net profit of Tk363.34 crore for the July-December period, up from Tk304 crore in the same period a year earlier.

Revenue during the six months rose by 8.48% year-on-year to Tk2,762.34 crore, up from Tk2,546 crore in the corresponding period of the previous year. As a result, earnings per share (EPS) climbed to Tk10.90, compared with Tk9.14 a year earlier.

However, in the October-December quarter of 2025, its earnings per share stood at Tk4.27, down from Tk4.66 in the same period of the previous year.

Today, the company's shares edged up by 0.08% to close at Tk384.20 on the Dhaka Stock Exchange.

In a press statement yesterday following a board meeting, the company said the improvement was driven by a stable foreign exchange rate, cautious and timely procurement of raw materials, and effective control over production costs.

It also credited strong management direction, efficient cost management and strategic planning for the gains across key financial indicators, including sales, profit, EPS and operating cash flow.

Walton said it expects the growth momentum in sales, profit, cash flow and other financial indicators to continue in the coming quarters.

The company's net asset value (NAV) per share rose to Tk257.24 excluding revaluation and Tk358.41 including revaluation, reflecting its strong financial foundation.

Its operating cash flow also showed significant improvement. In the first half of the current financial year, net operating cash flow per share increased to Tk19.41, from Tk6.30 in the same period last year.

The company said this was mainly due to an 8.07% increase in collections from customers and an 18.97% reduction in payments to raw material and other suppliers.

Notably, Walton said its operating cash flow and overall financial stability remained unaffected despite the value-added tax on refrigerators and air conditioners being raised from 7.5% to 15% in the 2025-26 financial year.

Meanwhile, at the company's board meeting, the proposed merger scheme between Walton Digi-Tech Industries Ltd (WDIL), the acquiree, and Walton Hi-Tech Industries PLC (WHIPLC), the acquirer, was approved.

However, the merger will be finalised and implemented only after securing approvals from the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC), the High Court Division of the Supreme Court of Bangladesh, other relevant regulatory authorities, as well as the consent of general shareholders and creditors.

As of 31 December 2025, the company's sponsors and directors jointly held 61.09% of its shares, while institutional investors owned 0.75% and general investors 38.16%.

Founded in 2008, Walton entered the electronics and home appliance market at a time when the sector was largely dependent on imports.

The company now leads the domestic refrigerator market with more than 72% market share and has a strong presence in televisions, air conditioners, ceiling fans, LED lights and other home appliances.

Walton began exporting refrigerators in 2011 and currently ships a range of products – including refrigerators, mobile phones, compressors and televisions – to markets in Europe, Asia and Africa.

The cost of the Rooppur nuclear power plant is set to rise by Tk 25,593 crore, pushing the total outlay to Tk 138,685 crore and extending the completion deadline to 2028.

The revised proposal is expected to be placed before the Executive Committee of the National Economic Council today, with Chief Adviser Professor Muhammad Yunus will chair the meeting.

If approved, the first revision will lift the 2,400 MW project cost from Tk 113,092 crore, an increase of about 23 percent. The original deadline of the country’s first nuclear power project was December 31, 2025.

The project was initially approved in 2016, with around 90 percent of the funding coming from a soft Russian loan.

According to Planning Commission documents, the cost escalation is driven mainly by higher allocation for project components, adding 10 new ones, and the depreciation of local currency taka against the US dollar.

As Bangladesh’s first nuclear project, limited prior experience led to an underestimation of costs related to maintenance, spare parts and advisory services, it said.

The documents mention that the combined allocation for 38 components has been increased in the revised development project proposal, including expanded facilities at the residential bloc Green City.

Besides, additional requirements emerged during the long implementation period, contributing to higher costs.

The Ministry of Science and Technology, the implementing agency of the nuclear power plant, also cited the sharp fall in the exchange rate from an original assumption of Tk 80 per dollar, alongside the exhaustion of allocations for advance payments, customs duty and value-added tax (VAT).

Delays caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine war and international sanctions on some Russian banks have led to extensions of both the loan agreement and the construction timeline, it said.

“The dollar exchange rate was Tk 80 when the project began in 2016; it has now reached Tk 122.40. This shift is the primary driver behind the cost increase,” said Project Director Md Kabir Hossain.

He said that despite the higher overall cost, the project saved Tk 166 crore from the government exchequer. While expenditures increased in 34 components, allocations were reduced in 49 others.

FUEL LOADING AT UNIT-1 LIKELY IN FEB

Of the two units at the plant, construction work at unit-1 was completed last year. However, the unit has not yet entered operation due to the incomplete technical testing process.

Following a recent site visit, senior government officials said fresh nuclear fuel loading for unit-1 is likely to begin in the last week of February this year, subject to the Russian side completing its final requirements.

“Our preparations for fuel loading are complete. The Russian side expects to begin loading at unit-1 in late February, and we are hopeful the plant will be ready within this timeframe,” Md Anwar Hossain, secretary at the Ministry of Science and Technology, told The Daily Star last week.

He said that after missing earlier schedules due to a lack of preparedness, fuel loading has now become the main focus to bring the country’s first nuclear power plant online.

Project officials said that if fuel loading starts in late February, a physical start-up could take place by April, with power generation possibly beginning by mid-year. The timeline, however, depends on the successful completion of critical tests and machinery inspections.

“It is delaying to complete all the tests as many complications are found out during the test period, and we are bound to solve those to reach the next period. In this way a huge amount of time is spent.” Hossain said.

Without completing the required tests and machinery preparation, the exact timing of fuel loading cannot be confirmed, he added.

India and Europe hope to strike the “mother of all deals” when EU chiefs meet Prime Minister Narendra Modi in New Delhi next week, as the two economic behemoths seek to forge closer ties.

Facing challenges from China and the United States, India and the European Union have been negotiating a massive free trade pact -- and talks, first launched about two decades ago, are nearing the finishing line.

“We are on the cusp of a historic trade agreement,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said this week.

Von der Leyen and European Council president Antonio Costa will attend Republic Day celebrations Monday before an EU-India summit Tuesday, where they hope to shake hands on the accord.

Securing a pact described by India’s Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal as “the mother of all deals”, would be a major win for Brussels and New Delhi as both seek to open up new markets in the face of US tariffs and Chinese export controls.

But officials have been eager to stress there is more to it than commerce.

“The EU and India are moving closer together at the time when the rules-based international order is under unprecedented pressure through wars, coercion and economic fragmentation,” the EU’s top diplomat, Kaja Kallas said Wednesday.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and US President Donald Trump’s punitive tariffs have brought momentum to the relationship between India and the EU, said Praveen Donthi, of the International Crisis Group think tank.

“The EU eyes the Indian market and aims to steer a rising power like India away from Russia, while India seeks to diversify its partnerships, doubling down on its strategy of multi-alignment at a time when its relations with the US have taken a downward turn,” he said.

The summit will offer Brussels the chance to turn the page after a bruising transatlantic crisis over Greenland -- now seemingly defused. Together the EU and India account for about a quarter of the world’s population and GDP.

Bilateral trade in goods reached 120 billion euros ($139 billion) in 2024, an increase of nearly 90 percent over the past decade, according to EU figures, with a further 60 billion euros ($69 billion) in trade in services. But both parties are eager to do more.

“India still accounts for around only around 2.5 percent of total EU trade in goods, compared with close to 15 percent for China,” an EU official said, adding the figure gave a sense of the “untapped potential” an agreement could unlock.

EU makers of cars, machinery and chemicals have much to gain from India lowering entry barriers, said Ignacio Garcia Bercero, an analyst at Brussels think tank Bruegel, who led EU trade talks with New Delhi over a decade ago.

“India is one of the most heavily protected economies in the world, with very, very high tariffs, including on many products where the European Union has a competitive advantage,” he told AFP.

Its economy in the doldrums, the 27-member EU is also pushing to ease exports of spirits and wines and strengthen intellectual property rules. India -- the fastest‑growing major economy in the world -- wants easier market access for products such as textiles and pharmaceuticals.

EU officials were tight-lipped about the deal’s contents as negotiations are ongoing.

But agriculture, a sensitive topic in both India and Europe, is likely to play a limited role, with New Delhi eager to protect its dairy and grain sectors.

Talks are focusing on a few sticking points, including the impact of the EU’s carbon border tax on steel exports and safety and quality standards in the pharmaceutical and automotive sectors, according to people familiar with the discussions.

Still EU officials said they were confident negotiations could be concluded in time for the summit.

An accord on mobility to facilitate movement for seasonal workers, students, researchers and highly skilled professionals, is also on the menu, alongside a security and defence pact.

The latter envisages closer cooperation in areas including maritime security, cybersecurity and counter-terrorism, an EU official said. It is also a “precondition” for the possible joint production of military equipment, said a second EU official.

New Delhi, which has relied on Moscow for decades for key military hardware, has tried to cut its dependence on Russia in recent years by diversifying imports and pushing its own domestic manufacturing base. Europe is doing the same vis-a-vis the US.

“We’re ready to open a new chapter in EU-India relationships, and really to unlock what we think is the transformative potential of this partnership,” said another EU official.

Two listed textile companies under New Asia Group reported contrasting financial performances in the first half of FY26, highlighting the uneven impact of domestic and global challenges on Bangladesh's textile and apparel sector.

Malek Spinning Mills posts profit decline

Malek Spinning Mills PLC saw its earnings weaken during July–December FY26, weighed down by rising costs and macroeconomic pressures. The company's consolidated net profit fell 19% year-on-year to Tk68.57 crore, while consolidated earnings per share (EPS) stood at Tk3.54.

The pressure intensified in the October–December quarter, when net profit dropped 37% to Tk31.85 crore and EPS fell to Tk1.65. Company officials attributed the weaker performance to external and internal headwinds, including the continuation of an additional 20% US trade tariff, banking sector instability, a widening financial account deficit, currency volatility, and declining foreign exchange reserves.

Rising commodity prices and persistent inflation further eroded margins. The textile and readymade garment sectors are also grappling with stricter compliance requirements, higher labour costs, and disruptions in power and gas supply all of which have directly increased production costs and affected export revenues.

Rahim Textile delivers strong turnaround

In contrast, Rahim Textile Mills PLC reported a robust performance over the same period. Net profit surged 271% year-on-year to Tk1.71 crore for July–December FY26, with EPS rising to Tk1.81. The October–December quarter also remained positive, with net profit climbing 92% to Tk0.50 crore and EPS at Tk0.54.

Rahim Textile noted that while the global economy remains under strain and the Bangladeshi textile industry faces challenges such as soaring energy prices, higher transportation costs, and reduced government incentives, its turnaround was driven by strategic shifts in operations.

The company invested Tk35 crore to transition from woven grey fabric dyeing, printing and washing to knit garments, seamless dyeing, washing, and accessories production. This move helped increase profit margins by lowering the cost of goods sold and aligning production with market demand.

As part of the strategy, Rahim Textile also shut down technologically obsolete woven dyeing, printing, and finishing units due to high energy costs, lower demand, falling selling prices, and rising raw material expenses.

US President Donald Trump filed a $5 billion lawsuit against JPMorgan Chase and its CEO Jamie Dimon on Thursday, accusing them of debanking him by closing several of his accounts to further a political agenda.

The lawsuit, filed in a Florida state court in Miami-Dade County, accused the largest US bank of violating its own policies by singling out Trump to ride the “political tide.”

JPMorgan denied that it closes accounts for political or religious reasons.

“While we regret President Trump has sued us, we believe the suit has no merit,” it said. “We respect the President’s right to sue us and our right to defend ourselves.”

Later on Thursday, Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One he had not spoken with Dimon about the lawsuit. “You’re not allowed to do what they did,” he said. “So wrong. I don’t know what their excuse would be. Maybe their excuse would be the regulators.”

Trump has also attacked other lenders including Bank of America with allegations of debanking, and recently stirred up industry opposition by demanding a 10 percent cap on credit card interest rates.

Dimon, who has run JPMorgan for two decades and is one of the most influential figures in corporate America, told the World Economic Forum on Wednesday that capping card rates would curb access to credit for many consumers and amount to an “economic disaster.”

At the same time, industry executives have cheered the administration’s push for deregulation, which they say could cut red tape, boost profits and spur economic growth.

Trump accused JPMorgan of violating its principles unilaterally by shutting accounts belonging to him and his hospitality companies.

He also accused Dimon of ordering a malicious “blacklist” to warn other banks about doing business with the Trump Organization and Trump family members, as well as with Trump himself.

“Plaintiffs also suffered extensive reputational harm by being forced to reach out to other financial institutions in an effort to move their funds and accounts, making it clear that they had been debanked,” Trump added.

JPMorgan said it closes accounts that create legal or regulatory risk for the company. “We regret having to do so but often rules and regulatory expectations lead us to do so,” it said. World leaders in government, business, sports, and entertainment attend the America Business Forum in Miami

Shares of JPMorgan closed up 0.5 percent on Thursday and were flat premarket on Friday.

Capital One Financial, another large bank, has sought to dismiss a similar lawsuit filed last March by several Trump plaintiffs, including the president’s son Eric Trump. That lawsuit is still pending.

The White House referred a request for comment to Trump’s private lawyer, who had no immediate comment.

Banks have faced growing political pressure in recent years, particularly from conservatives who say lenders have for political reasons discriminated against industries such as firearms and fossil fuels.

That pressure has intensified during Trump’s second White House term, with the Republican accusing some banks of refusing to serve him and other conservatives. Banks have denied that allegation.

In December, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, a leading bank regulator, said in a report that the nine largest US banks have restricted financial services to certain industries as part of a debanking push.

The regulator did not provide specific examples of wrongdoing but said it had found large banks either refused services to some industries or required higher levels of scrutiny from 2020 to 2023.

Those affected included oil and gas companies, cryptocurrency firms, tobacco and e-cigarette manufacturers, and firearm companies, it said. The regulator found that many banks publicly disclosed restrictive policies, often tied to environmental, social and governance goals.

Many banks have since curtailed such practices and the regulator said it is continuing to review thousands of debanking complaints.

Last year, JPMorgan said it was cooperating with inquiries from government agencies and other entities regarding its policies in light of the Trump administration’s push against alleged debanking.

US regulators have also examined whether their own supervisory policies discouraged banks from serving certain corporate customers.

Last year, federal bank regulators said they would stop policing banks based on so-called reputational risk, under which supervisors could penalize institutions for activities that were not explicitly illegal but could expose them to negative publicity or costly litigation.

Some banks viewed the reputational risk standard as vague and subjective, giving supervisors wide discretion.

The industry has also urged regulators to update anti-money laundering rules, which can force banks to close suspicious accounts without explanation.

Mutual Trust Bank PLC has announced plans to raise Tk346 crore in Tier-1 capital to strengthen its core capital base and support future growth.

The decision was taken at a meeting of the bank's board of directors and is subject to approval from the relevant regulatory authorities, according to a disclosure filed with the Dhaka Stock Exchange on Thursday (22 January).

The proposed capital raising represents about 32% of the bank's existing paid-up capital, which currently stands at Tk1,081 crore.

As of the end of 2024, Mutual Trust Bank's consolidated Tier-1 capital amounted to Tk2,467.53 crore, while its capital to risk-weighted assets ratio (CRAR) stood at 13.62%, comfortably above the regulatory requirement of 12.50%.

Speaking to The Business Standard, the bank's Managing Director, Syed Mahbubur Rahman, said the board's decision was driven by the need to further strengthen the bank's risk-based capital position amid a changing economic and regulatory environment.

He noted that the capital may be raised through a rights offer, issuance of preference shares, bonds, or another instrument in line with Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission regulations.

Tier-1 capital, often referred to as core capital, is considered the highest quality capital for banks as it primarily consists of common equity, retained earnings and disclosed reserves. It serves as a key buffer to absorb losses and is a critical indicator of a bank's financial strength under the Basel regulatory framework.

According to the bank's unaudited financial statements, the bank posted a net profit of Tk203.84 crore during the January–September period of 2025, nearly unchanged from Tk203.74 crore in the same period a year earlier. Its earnings per share also remained steady at Tk1.88.

For the full year of 2024, the private sector lender reported a net profit of Tk316.65 crore with an EPS of Tk3.22, and distributed a 10% stock dividend to its shareholders.

The inaugural ceremony of Sammilito Islami Bank, scheduled for 10am tomorrow (25 January) at Hotel Intercontinental Dhaka, has been postponed.

Arief Hossain Khan, spokesperson for Bangladesh Bank, confirmed the matter to the media.

Salehuddin Ahmed was scheduled to attend as chief guest, while special guests were to include Finance Secretary Md Khairuzzaman Mozumder, and Governor of Bangladesh Bank Ahsan H Mansur. The programme was to be presided over by Sammilito Islami Bank Chairman Mohammad Ayub Miah.

Other attendees were expected to include senior officials from Bangladesh Bank, the Finance Ministry, and the country's top financial institutions.

Sammilito Islami Bank PLC was formed through the merger of First Security Islami Bank, Global Islami Bank, Social Islami Bank, Exim Bank, and Union Bank.

The new bank boasts one of the largest capital structures in Bangladesh's banking history, with an authorised capital of Tk40,000 crore and a paid-up capital of Tk35,000 crore – Tk20,000 crore contributed by the government and Tk15,000 crore through conversion of depositors' shares.

Despite posting double-digit revenue growth, listed telecommunications company ADN Telecom saw its net profit fall sharply in the first half of the current fiscal year, weighed down by rising costs and narrowing margins.

According to the company's quarterly financial statements, ADN Telecom's consolidated revenue rose 12.73% year-on-year to Tk100.74 crore during the July–December period. However, its net profit declined 21% year-on-year to Tk8.10 crore over the same period.

The company attributed the profit drop mainly to higher costs. Quarterly reports show that the cost of services and goods sold increased by around 4%, while the gross profit margin declined despite revenue growth. The cost of sales accounted for 63.62% of total revenue in the first half of the fiscal year, up from 59.67% in the corresponding period of the previous year.

In addition, administrative and distribution expenses rose significantly compared to the same period last year, further pressuring profitability.

As a result, earnings per share (EPS) fell to Tk1.26 for the July–December period, down from Tk1.58 a year earlier.

Commenting on its performance, ADN Telecom said it maintained positive growth momentum, achieving nearly 13% year-on-year revenue growth during the period. The company said the increase was driven primarily by effective sales execution, particularly revenue from several projects.

However, the company acknowledged that multiple cost and margin pressures affected earnings. These included inflationary impacts across various expense categories, higher employee-related costs, changes in depreciation rates, and price erosion in certain services, all of which had an adverse impact on EPS.

Despite the challenges, ADN Telecom said it remains focused on improving operational efficiency, diversifying its business portfolio, and accelerating growth across multiple revenue streams to ensure sustainable long-term profitability.

The outstanding balance of government debt through the issuance of different securities, mainly treasury bills and bonds, increased further in fiscal year 2024–25, as authorities borrowed more to cover budget deficits amid sluggish revenue collection.

At the end of FY25, the total outstanding balance of government securities rose 28 percent year-on-year to Tk 744,850 crore.

Of the amount, outstanding debt from treasury bonds was Tk 518,995 crore, which increased 27 percent year-on-year.

At the same time, outstanding debt through treasury bills grew 31 percent to Tk 175,131 crore, according to a Bangladesh Bank report on government securities published on Thursday.

Including other securities, such as Shariah-based sukuk bonds, the total outstanding amount of government debt rose to Tk 768,850 crore—12.92 percent of Bangladesh’s gross domestic product (GDP)—at the end of June 2025.

The Bangladesh Bank (BB) said the increase in debt from the banking sector was significant, driven by policy measures to reduce non-tradable securities such as savings certificates, as well as higher financing needs related to budget implementation.

The BB said the banking sector was the leading investor, accounting for 68.87 percent of total outstanding securities, followed by 12.03 percent held by long-term investors such as insurance companies, trust funds, and provident funds.

Individual investors held 1.14 percent of the total outstanding amount.

The BB said that in FY25, the average yields of treasury bills and treasury bonds increased during the first half, followed by a marginal moderation during the second half of the fiscal year.

The report said the net issuance of treasury bonds and bills by the government surged in FY25.

During FY25, the net issuance of treasury bonds was Tk 110,762 crore, which was 165.30 percent higher than that of the previous fiscal year. The net issuance of treasury bills grew more than four times during the period.

Oil prices settled at their highest in over a week on Friday after US President Donald Trump ratcheted up pressure against Iran through more sanctions on vessels that transport its oil, and announced an armada was heading towards the Middle Eastern nation.

Brent crude futures rose $1.82, or 2.8 percent, to settle at $65.88 a barrel, the highest since January 14. US West Texas Intermediate crude gained $1.71, or 2.9 percent, at $61.07, also a more than one-week high.

Both benchmarks notched weekly gains of over 2.5 percent.

Trump’s statements renewed warnings to Tehran against killing protesters or restarting its nuclear program. The escalating pressure has caused concerns of oil supply disruptions in the Middle East. Kazakhstan has been struggling to resume output from one of the world’s largest oilfields.

Warships, including an aircraft carrier and guided-missile destroyers, will arrive in the Middle East in the coming days, a US official said. The United States conducted strikes on Iran last June.

The US on Friday also imposed sanctions on nine vessels and eight related firms involved in transporting Iranian oil and petroleum products, the US Treasury said in a statement.

At about 3.2 million barrels per day according to Opec figures, Iran is Opec’s fourth-biggest crude oil producer behind Saudi Arabia, Iraq and the United Arab Emirates. It is also a major exporter to China, the world’s second-largest oil consumer.

Chevron said oil output at Kazakhstan’s Tengiz oilfield has yet to resume after Chevron-led operator Tengizchevroil announced a shutdown on Monday following a fire.

The incident exacerbated problems for Kazakhstan’s oil industry, already challenged by bottlenecks at its main exporting gateway on the Black Sea, which has been damaged by Ukrainian drones.

JP Morgan said on Friday that Tengiz, which accounts for nearly half of Kazakhstan’s production, could remain offline for the rest of the month and that Kazakhstan’s crude output is likely to average only 1 million to 1.1 million bpd in January, compared with a usual level of around 1.8 million bpd.

Colombia is suspending electricity sales to Ecuador and will impose a 30 percent tariff on 20 products from its neighbor.

Oil prices climbed earlier in the week on Trump’s moves on Greenland, but dropped by about 2 percent on Thursday as he backed off tariff threats against Europe and ruled out military action.

Trump said on Thursday that Denmark, NATO and the US had reached a deal that would allow “total access” to Greenland.

Import activity in Bangladesh showed signs of a modest recovery in the first five months of the current fiscal year (FY26), supported by a stable dollar market and preparations for Ramadan.

However, the recovery remains fragile as businesses adopt a cautious ‘wait-and-see’ approach ahead of the national election.

According to Bangladesh Bank data, Letters of Credit (LC) openings increased by 4.5 percent to $29.69 billion during July–November of FY26, up from $28.4 billion in the same period last year.

The data highlights a gap between LC openings and final payments with high interest rates and political uncertainty slowing settlements.

LC openings surged 32.22 percent to $911 million, reflecting renewed investments in energy-efficient equipment but settlements fell 16.77 percent to $745.5 million.

Ahead of Ramadan, LC openings rose 10.64 percent to $2.85 billion while settlements slightly declined to $2.41 billion, according the data.

Besides, openings increased marginally by 0.42 percent to $10.29 billion, indicating cautious production due to weak domestic demand and limited working capital.

Despite a stable interbank exchange rate at Tk 122 per dollar over the past nine months, high rates have raised import costs and debt servicing burdens.

Overall LC settlements dropped slightly by 0.63 percent to $27.94 billion during the July–November period.

The government is working to make Bangladesh's export sector more diversified and competitive, reducing over-reliance on the readymade garments industry, Commerce Adviser Sk Bashir Uddin said today (22 January).

He made the remarks while speaking as the chief guest at a seminar titled "Role of Competitiveness for Jobs Project on Export Diversification in Bangladesh" at the Bangladesh-China Friendship Exhibition Centre in Purbachal in the afternoon.

The adviser said expanding Bangladesh's presence in global markets requires product diversification, supportive policies and capable entrepreneurs. "Entrepreneurs must be hardworking and build the right knowledge and skills to achieve their goals," he said.

He said the government has started major reforms and investments under the Export Competitiveness for Jobs (EC4J) project to achieve an export target of $100 billion by 2030.

Referring to past policy approaches, the adviser said that for 16 years the country had followed largely utopian, cost-driven plans without adequate grounding.

"Now we are adopting policies, engaging with businesses and debating openly – all in the national interest," he said, adding that the country is trying to position itself amid shifting global geopolitical dynamics.

Commerce Ministry Additional Secretary and EC4J Project Director Md Abdur Rahim Khan delivered the welcome address, while Commerce Secretary Mahbubur Rahman spoke as a special guest at the seminar.

In a move that could reshape the future of Bangladesh's national fish, PRAN-RFL Group is planning to farm hilsa for the first time in the country using advanced indoor aquaculture technology – an approach never before attempted commercially in the country.

The initiative will use recirculating aquaculture system (RAS) technology and be implemented jointly with Denmark-based Assentoft Aqua Limited, with an investment of €30 million, or around Tk430 crore.

Alongside hilsa, the project also plans to culture Asian seabass (coral) and other marine fish in the high-tech and fully controlled indoor environment. An agreement for the project was signed yesterday between PRAN-RFL Group and Assentoft Aqua.

The facility is expected to be set up at the Mirsarai Economic Zone in Chattogram or another suitable location agreed upon by both parties. The full investment will be rolled out in two to three phases over the next two years.

Hilsa is not only Bangladesh's national fish but also a powerful cultural symbol, carrying deep emotional value and commanding an increasingly high value in international markets.

Demand has been rising steadily among Bangladeshi expatriates in the Middle East, Europe, the United States, Canada and Australia. Yet exports remain limited due to dependence on natural sources, changes in river systems and seasonal fishing bans.

High domestic demand also means hilsa is often scarce, even at premium prices.

According to the Department of Fisheries, while overall production has increased in recent years, there is still a shortage of export-quality hilsa. Industry insiders say success in controlled hilsa farming could therefore mark a major breakthrough.

PRAN Group Managing Director Eleash Mridha told TBS the company was responding to growing local and global demand for premium marine fish.

"In view of the rising demand for quality marine fish at home and abroad, PRAN Group wants to farm these species in Bangladesh using modern RAS technology," he said.

"Assentoft Aqua has already been producing fish at an industrial scale in developed countries using this technology in limited spaces. Through this project, industrial-scale seabass production will begin in Bangladesh for the first time."

How RAS technology works

Recirculating aquaculture system, or RAS, is a fully controlled indoor fish farming method where water quality, temperature, oxygen, salinity and waste management are managed through technology. The same water is treated and reused repeatedly, reducing water use and lowering the risk of disease compared to conventional systems.

Under the project, the entire production chain will be established, including broodstock management, hatchery and nursery facilities. The target weight for each hilsa fish has been set at between 1.2 and 1.5 kilograms.

Once fully operational, the facility aims to produce around 2,000 tonnes of hilsa fish per year, a large share of which is intended for export.

Can hilsa be farmed?

Hilsa is a migratory fish, and for decades it was considered unsuitable for farming. In recent years, however, research trials on raising hilsa in controlled environments have begun in Bangladesh, India and Myanmar.

Large-scale commercial production remains rare, making the PRAN-RFL–Assentoft initiative unusual on a global scale.

Dr Amirul Islam, a senior scientist at the Bangladesh Fisheries Research Institute (BFRI), told The Business Standard that hilsa farming is scientifically very challenging.

"The biggest challenge is controlling the hilsa's life cycle and breeding behaviour," he said. "There is no successful record of hilsa farming so far."

If successful, such projects could reduce pressure on natural river systems and open up new export opportunities, he added.

Danish expertise and local ambition

Assentoft Aqua Limited is internationally known for its work with RAS technology. Its associate company, Mariscco ApS, has been providing technical support for fish farming projects in Bangladesh and other countries since 2016, including hatchery design, broodstock management and full RAS solutions.

Dr Jens Ole Olesen, business development director of Assentoft Aqua, said the company was ready to implement an RAS-based fish farming project in Bangladesh with financing guaranteed by the Danish government.

"We are optimistic about our partnership with PRAN-RFL Group," he said.

PRAN-RFL Group is one of Bangladesh's largest agro and food processing companies, with a strong presence in food, agriculture, dairy, beverages and export-oriented products.

Through this new fisheries venture, the group aims to enter the production and export of high-value marine fish, adding a new chapter to its expanding portfolio, according to the group's managing director, Eleash Mridha.

Finance Adviser Dr Salehuddin Ahmed today said that a comprehensive reform of the country's banking sector is unavoidable and critically important for safeguarding macroeconomic stability, restoring discipline in financial institutions, and ensuring sustainable growth.

The Finance Adviser said this while addressing the MTB-FE Roundtable as the chief guest on 'Banking Sector Reforms' held at a hotel in the capital today.

The Adviser said that most banking-related issues primarily fall under the mandate of Bangladesh Bank, although close coordination with the Ministry of Finance remains essential. He acknowledged that the sector is facing long-standing structural and governance challenges which have accumulated over the last decade and a half.

"These problems didn't arise overnight, and they can't be fixed within 14 or 16 months," he said, adding that institutional decay, weak enforcement of laws, erosion of compliance culture, and misuse of discretionary authority have severely affected the sector.

Correcting these weaknesses, he stressed, requires time, careful planning, and strong institutional reforms rather than abrupt or coercive actions.

The Adviser said that despite domestic criticism, Bangladesh's image in the international arena remains largely positive. Development partners and global stakeholders, he noted, generally view the country as having a manageable economy, although they acknowledge that reforming the banking and financial sectors is a difficult but necessary task.

Referring to recent legislative initiatives, he said the government has already taken steps to strengthen the legal framework governing the financial sector.

Amendments to laws related to the Negotiable Instruments Act and the House Building Finance Corporation Act have been passed, while work on strengthening anti-money laundering legislation and improving the effectiveness of financial courts is ongoing.

He pointed out that weak prudential norms, non-compliance with regulations, ineffective supervision, and excessive influence of bank owners over management have been among the key factors behind the sector's fragility.

In many cases, he said, banks were not run according to accepted norms of corporate governance, which undermined transparency and accountability.

Highlighting the role of audits and oversight, the Adviser cited irregularities in audit practices and stressed the need for greater responsibility and professionalism among auditors and regulatory bodies.

He said accountability must be enforced across all institutions to prevent financial misconduct and protect public interest.

On the issue of central bank autonomy, the Adviser said Bangladesh Bank requires adequate operational and administrative independence to perform its duties effectively. However, he emphasised that such autonomy must be balanced with accountability within the sovereign framework of the state.

The Adviser underlined the importance of appointing competent and credible leadership in the banking sector, particularly at the central bank. Transparent and merit-based selection processes, he said, are crucial to ensuring effective supervision and sound policy implementation.

Concluding his remarks, the Adviser said banking sector reform is not optional but a national necessity.

Even if all reforms cannot be completed within the current timeframe, he added that the government is committed to laying a solid foundation so that future administrations can continue the reform process without disruption.

"The banking sector is the backbone of the economy. Strengthening it is essential to protect depositors, maintain financial stability, and support long-term development," he said.

Silver prices vaulted above $100 an ounce on Friday, extending a remarkable 2025 surge into the new year as retail investor and momentum-driven buying added to a prolonged spell of tightness in physical markets for the precious and industrial metal.

Hopping onto the coat-tails of far more expensive gold, technical analysts who study charts of past price moves to predict future movement said the rapid nature of silver's gains had positioned it for a major correction.

"Silver is in the midst of a self-propelled frenzy and with plenty of geopolitical risk to give gold added buoyancy, silver is benefiting, even now, from its lower unit price," said StoneX analyst Rhona O'Connell.

"Everyone, it seems, wants to be involved but it is also flashing amber wealth warnings," she added. "As and when cracks start to appear they could easily become chasms. Buckle up."

Spot prices for silver, used in jewellery, electronics, solar panels, as well as an investment, were last up 5.1% at $101 per troy ounce on Friday.

The price has gained 40% since the beginning of 2026 after rallying by 147% in 2025. Gold hit a record high of $4,988 per ounce on Friday.

BofA strategist Michael Widmer estimates that a fundamentally justified silver price is around $60 with demand from solar panel producers probably having peaked in 2025 and overall industrial demand under pressure from record-high prices.

For the first time in 14 years, it will take just 50 ounces of silver to buy one ounce of gold as of Friday, down from 105 ounces in April.

This ratio, which traders and analysts use as a gauge for future direction, means that silver's outperformance over gold has become stretched.

Investment demand

Silver's gain in 2025 was the largest yearly growth in LSEG data going back to 1983.

The market's performance in 2025 was underpinned by robust investment demand for all precious metals and an extended period of thin liquidity in the benchmark London silver market as worries about US tariffs prompted massive inflows to US stocks.

Several waves of active retail buying through purchases of small bars and coins as well as inflows into physically backed silver exchange-traded funds have added to buying since October, according to analysts.

Almost 20% of a total 1.0-billion-ounce silver supply comes annually from the recycling sector, with activity heightened due to record prices.

However, inventories have not been rebuilding quickly with a shortage of high-grade refining capacity limiting the speed at which silver scrap material can be returned to the market, leading precious metals consultancy Metals Focus said.

The availability of the stocks in the market and secondary supply have become more crucial after five consecutive years of structural deficit, set to persist in 2026.

These deficits, outflows to the US and inflows to the ETFs saw the amount of metal which can be quickly mobilised in periods of high demand in London commercial vaults dwindle to a record low of 136 million ounces by end-September, Metals Focus estimates.

By end-2025, stocks had recovered to nearly 200 million ounces helping to drive down lease rates in London from their October spike, but remained far below the roughly 360 million ounces available in London in the peak of the Reddit-driven rally in early 2021.

What now?

Analysts expect outflows from US stocks to speed up and boost liquidity in the traditional markets as Washington refrained from imposing any tariffs when announcing the results of its critical metals review in mid-January.

After peaking at 532 million ounces on 3 October, COMEX inventories have fallen by 114 million ounces to 418 million ounces, their lowest level since March, as the metal worth about $11 billion left the inventories.

To reach pre-Trump-election levels, COMEX stocks would need to see further outflows of about 113 million ounces, equal to about 11% of total annual silver supply.

"Profit taking following the frenzied nature of the investor-driven rally since late November is likely sooner rather than later, particularly in view of ongoing physical market easing," said BNP Paribas senior commodities strategist David Wilson.

Biman Bangladesh Airlines has suspended two premium long-haul routes within a year, despite one not being loss-making, exposing deep structural weaknesses in fleet planning and route strategy as the national carrier struggles to balance Hajj operations, aircraft shortages and brand credibility.

The most recent decision to suspend the Dhaka-Manchester route from March ahead of Hajj operations comes months after Biman halted the Dhaka-Narita service following heavy losses, indicating a pattern of abrupt long-haul withdrawals that industry experts say reflects deeper flaws in feasibility assessment and long-term fleet planning rather than isolated operational pressures.

At the heart of the disruption is a shrinking and overstretched wide-body fleet, with no new aircraft added in five years, repeated failures to lease additional planes and fresh deliveries from Boeing still at least six years away, forcing the airline to repeatedly reshuffle routes instead of executing a stable network strategy.

Aviation analyst and former Biman Board member Kazi Wahidul Alam said focusing solely on labour-intensive Middle Eastern routes risks weakening the airline's brand.

"Biman is not a budget carrier. Excluding premium routes like Dhaka-Manchester while focusing only on labour routes is not acceptable if the airline wants to maintain a strong image," he told The Business Standard. "To sustain brand value, important international routes must continue."

However, Biman maintains that closing or suspending a route is not a sign of mismanagement but a responsible, safety-driven, and pragmatic operational decision, particularly in the face of severe fleet constraints.

Manchester route suspended amid fleet crisis

Biman has announced that the Dhaka-Manchester-Dhaka route will be temporarily suspended from 1 March 2026 until further notice. The airline cited aircraft shortages, upcoming Hajj operations, long-term maintenance of existing aircraft, and the need to ensure optimal fleet utilisation across its network.

Responding to demands from Sylhet-origin expatriates based in Manchester to keep the route operational, Biman said the Dhaka-London route remains available and can absorb demand, noting that Manchester is about 262 kilometres from London and reachable by train in around two hours.

According to Biman sources, the Manchester route was neither loss-making nor profitable. "However, national interest and Hajj operations require aircraft reallocation during peak periods," a senior official said.

The route has a history of disruption. It was first suspended in 2012 due to aircraft shortages and resumed in early 2020 following long-standing demands from expatriates. The latest suspension – less than five years after resumption – has again raised concerns among passengers.

Biman spokesperson Bosra Islam told TBS that wide-body aircraft such as the Boeing 787 and 777 are used for European, Hajj and Middle Eastern routes. "Manchester is a long-haul destination, and a single aircraft remains tied up for several days. In contrast, the same aircraft can operate multiple Middle Eastern flights within that time," she said.

She added that with a limited fleet, maximising aircraft productivity becomes an operational necessity.

Focus shifts to Middle East routes

Biman says it is prioritising Middle Eastern destinations, where demand from expatriate workers, Umrah pilgrims, transit passengers and cargo movement remains strong. Currently, routes such as Dubai, Jeddah, Riyadh, Doha, Dammam and Muscat are experiencing high passenger loads.

Biman Managing Director Shafikur Rahman recently told the media that expansion in the Middle East remains a key priority due to its importance for remittances, transit traffic and cargo. However, all growth will be phased and tied to fleet availability.

"Our future growth strategy focuses on measured network expansion aligned with market demand and operational capacity," he said. "All new expansion will be introduced in phases, supported by careful fleet planning and commercial viability assessments."

European long-haul operations also require additional pilots, more cabin crew and longer rest periods. During peak Hajj and Umrah seasons, the same crew resources are heavily deployed on Middle Eastern routes, allowing higher flight frequencies and better utilisation.

The next Hajj flight operations are scheduled to begin from 18 April. During the season, thousands of pilgrims must be transported within a limited timeframe, requiring a large number of special flights alongside regular schedules. This pressure often leads to reduced frequencies or suspensions on other routes.

In addition, routine C-checks, engine overhauls and structural inspections can take aircraft out of operation for weeks or months, further tightening fleet availability.

Biman is currently operating 22 international routes with a fleet of 19 aircraft. The airline has failed at least five times in the past two years to lease additional aircraft, and no new aircraft have been added in the last five years.

New aircraft purchases from Boeing are expected only by 2031 – still six years away – leaving the carrier struggling to balance expansion, premium connectivity and operational sustainability amid growing passenger demand.

Narita route: premium service, heavy losses

Biman's Dhaka-Narita route, another premium long-haul service, was suspended in July last year within just 21 months of its resumption due to heavy financial losses.

The national carrier first launched the Narita route in 1979. After multiple suspensions – in 1981 and again in 2006 due to sustained losses – the service was relaunched on 1 September 2023 amid strong public enthusiasm, as it cut travel time to six to seven hours and eliminated long transit stops.

However, Biman sources said each Narita flight incurred losses of nearly Tk95 lakh, with average cabin occupancy at 69%. Total losses on the route stood at Tk215.58 crore, forcing the airline to halt operations and pushing passengers back to third-country transit routes, increasing travel time and costs.